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This Is Tomorrow

Equity Markets Update


07-11 July 2014
This Is Tomorrow, Equity Markets Update is a research based on new approach to
quantitative analysis in which the goal is to develop better understanding of market
movements and risk management. This is a practical solution and comprehensive
picture of certain security with a view to improve investment performance. It offers a
smart trading capability along with a disciplined approach.
This Is Tomorrow | Equity Markets Update


Page 2| 07-11 July 2014
Table 1: Summary
Indices(UPDATED)
All three indices we examine here, has structured a fast growing upward trend
which indicates a continuation of 7-week rising streak. It is predicted that the
major indices move upward or at least stay well above the June low during
July. Cycle analysis suggests that indices are approaching to the end of
medium-term rising cycle which means it is likely to see a correction during
late June or early August 2014.
SPX: the short-term rising trend is headed toward 2000 with high rate of
growth. Short term target is reached at 1985 and as long as the price is above
1970, demand may push the price higher around 2000.A closing price below
1970 can be the first sign of change in current up-trend. A possible short-term
correction is likely to take place up to 1961 and then 1930. A closing price
below 1925 will indicate that a downward move may stretch up to 1850.
RUT: Recent uptrend is headed toward to 1210 and it is likely higher levels
during June; however a decrease in price may take place around 1180.

Technology(UPDATED)
FB: The uptrend may be headed toward 71.4 over July; however a two-
month rising uptrend may halt if a closing price below 65.7 takes place.
HPQ: Despite the fact that it is expected to primary uptrend stretched up
to 38.4 and 42 over the next six months; however before that it is likely to see
a price depreciation up to 33 and 31.8
MSFT: As long as price is closed above 40.9, the recent rising trend will
continue over July. Strong demands are clustered around 41 and 40.3. The
short-term cycle is about to take hold above 41.5.
Overall an increase in price up to 44.3 and 47 is forecast over the coming six
months. A closing price below 41 suggests a period of back and forth action
between 39.8 and 41.6 which may take two months.
Technology(UPDATED)
AAPL: The uptrend is headed toward 96.7. Recently new short-term rising
trend snapped back from 91. Demand may push the price higher during July
near to 97 as long as a closing price is above 92.7. The mid-term rising
uptrend may go above 100 this year, if a closing price stays well above 89.
AMZN: The uptrend is headed toward 365 over this quarter. Recently new
short-term rising trend if formed. Demand may drive the price higher during
July near to 348 as long as a closing price is above 337.7.
GOOGL: The uptrend is headed toward 611.

Financial(UPDATED)
WFC: The recent rally is headed toward 55 by the end of the quarter.
However before reaching this level, a Short correction may be took place up
to 51.9 and then 50.8 over July.
BAC: The new short-term upward cycle is set to reach 16.4 and then 17.4
levels. Supply in short-term is clustered around 16.5 and it is likely to cause a
drop in price up to 15.8. Having bottomed out, the security is about to trade
between 15 and 17.4 during the third quarter.

Non-Cyclical Consumer (UPDATED)
MO: The long term bull market will likely be on course. A short-term
correction may take place within the coming week. A closing price below 41.5
suggests price depreciation up to 39.6.




Strong-Buy Buy Natural Sell Strong-Sell



This Is Tomorrow | Equity Markets Update


Page 3| 07-11 July 2014
Table 2: Favorable Move, Strategy, Forecast
Tendency illustrates a general direction in which the price tends to move between the lower or upper ends of the last trend or exceed both extremes. These
signs and are either used to reflect the likelihood of passing two extremes (low and high of last trend) or the security is likely to set a lower or upper
closing price compared to weekly and monthly price as long as exceed more than 1% change, otherwise sign is shown. Weekly and monthly closing prices
on the table are the references of determining the tendency.

Last Trend
s
t
r
a
t
e
g
y

Week Month Quarter
symbol
W
e
e
k
l
y

C
l
o
s
e

Low/High
Last trend
P
e
r
f
o
r
m
a
n
c
e

%

T
e
n
d
e
n
c
y

Expected
Low
Estimated
close
Expected
High
M
o
n
t
h
l
y

C
l
o
s
e

T
e
n
d
e
n
c
y

Expected
Low
Estimated
close
Expected
High
T
e
n
d
e
n
c
y

Expected
Close
SPX 1985 18031985 10.0 CO L>1960 C>1962 H< 2030 1960 L>= 1907 1920<C<1970 H<2035 1900 <C< 2000
NDX 3923 34143923 14.9 ND ND ND ND ND 3850 L>=3710 3790<C<3900 H<4070 3800 <C< 3900
RUT 1208 10821213 12.1 CO L>=1180 1190<C<1210 H<1220 1192 L>=1160 1180<C<1220 H<1300 C> 1180
GOOGL 593 511594 16.2 CO L>=580 C> 590 H=<612 585 ND ND ND ND ND
AMZN 337.5 284340 19.7 CO L>=325 C> 335 H<348 324.8 L>304 C> 337 H< 340 340<C< 360
AAPL 94 73.0595.05 30.1 CO L>=90.9 C> 91 H< 95 92.9 L>89 90 <C<94 H< 96.6 92 <C< 96
FB 66.3 56.368.44 21.5 CO L> =65.8 66 <C<68.5 H<68.5 67.3 L>64 65.80 <C<71.3 H<73 C> 67
MSFT 41.8 38.542.29 9.8 CO L>= 41 C> 41.2 H>= 42.1 41.7 L> =40.3 C> 41 H>= 42 C> 42
HPQ 34 31.235.2 12.8 TR L> 32.8 33.4 <C<33.9 H<34.5 33.65 L> 31.6 33 <C<34 H<35 35 <C< 37
WFC 53 46.753.08 13.6 CO L>=51.9 52 <C< 52.8 H=< 53.3 52.56 L> 50.3 50.8<C<52.6 H< 54 51 <C< 55
BAC 16.03 14.3716.23 12.9 CO L>=15.8 16 <C< 16.4 H=<16.6 15.37 L>=14.9 16 <C< 16.4 H<17.4 16.5 <C< 17.4
MO 42.39 33.843.35 28.2 CO L>41.1 41.1<C< 43 H<43.3 41.9 L>= 39.25 C> 39.6 H<44 C> 42


This Is Tomorrow | Equity Markets Update


Page 4| 07-11 July 2014
Table 3: Unfavorable Move
Unfavorable move is the securitys risk associated with losses which means the risk of the uncertainty of the expected return or favorable move. It represents
the condition in which investors would suffer an amount of loss over the period of time (less than one month or 3-month period) if they stay in the negative
side.


Unexpected market movement(Period: 1 to 4 Weeks) Unexpected market movement(Period: 1 to 3 Months)

CONDITION
Estimated
Loss
%
T
e
n
d
e
n
c
y

Estimated
Low
Estimated
Trading
range
Estimated
High
CONDITION
Estimated
Loss
%
T
e
n
d
e
n
c
y

Estimated
Low
Estimated
Trading
range
Estimated
High
SPX C < 1950 -1.5 1920 1925 < C < 1970 1985 C < 1925 -4 1835 1850 < C < 1960 1960
NDX C < 3800 3710 3710<C<3790 3800 C < 3700 3460 3500 < C < 3700 3740
RUT C < 1209 1180 1185<C<1190 1220 C < 1180 1120 1130<C<1180 1190
GOOGL
AMZN C < 323.5 303.8 304 <C<315 315
AAPL C < 89.9 85 86<C<92 93
FB C < 65.8 L > 63.8 64.3 < C < 66.8
MSFT C < 41 L > 39.8 40.3 < C < 41.6 H = < 41.65 C < 41 L > 38.9 40.3 < C < 41.6 H = < 41.65
HPQ C < 33.9 -6.7 L > = 31.6 31.8 < C < 33.9 H < 34.2 C < 33.9 -6.7 L > = 31.6 31.8 < C < 33.9 H < 34.2
WFC C < 52.6 -3.4 L > = 50.8 51.8 < C < 52 H < 53 C < 52 -4.6 L > 49.6 50 < C < 52 H < 53
BAC C < 15.6 -3.8 L > 15 15.1 < C < 15.6 H = < 16 C < 15.6 -3.8 L > 15 15.1 < C < 15.6 H = < 16
MO C > 43.3 C < 41.1 L > 39.25 39.6 < C < 40.6 H < 41.6








This Is Tomorrow | Equity Markets Update


Page 5| 07-11 July 2014
Table 4: Risk and Warning levels
What is the downside risk? An estimation of a security's potential to experience a drop in price. Risk explains a rate of growth within a trend and future cash
flows.


Downside Risk Upside Beta

Last
Warning
(Short-term)
Initial Warning
Risk
(Short-term)
Daily Close
Risk
(Mid-term)
Weekly Close
WCS
Worst Case
Scenario
Warning
(Short-term)
Initial Warning
Risk
(Short-term)
Daily Close
Risk
(Mid-term)
Weekly Close
WCS
Worst Case
Scenario
SPX 1985 C<1964 C < 1955 C <1925 L = 1835 L >1975 C> 1975 H = 2035
NDX 3923 C <3800 C < 3705 C < 3705 L = 3460
RUT 1208 C < 1209 C <1180 C <1154 L = 1120 C > 1209 H = 1290
GOOGL 593 C < 580 C < 568
AMZN 337.5 C < 325 C < 320 C < 320 L = 303.8 C > 337.7
AAPL 94 C < 92.7 C < 89.1 C < 89.1 L = 85.8 C > 96.7 H = 101
FB 66.3 L < 65.7 C <65.8 C <62.05 L = 59.8 C > 71.4
MSFT 41.8 C <41.6 C <41 C <40.3 L = 39.65
HPQ 34 C < 33.9 C <33.9 C < 31.6 L= 31.6
WFC 53 C <52.6 C < 52.05 C <50 L = 49.8
BAC 16.03 L < 15.7 C < 15.6 C < 15.05 L= 15.05 L = 16.6 C > 16.4 C > 15.8 H = 17.4
MO 42.39 C <41.95 C < 41.1 C <43 L = 39.25













This Is Tomorrow | Equity Markets Update


Page 6| 07-11 July 2014

Table 5: Trend Analysis

Symbol Last
UP TREND DOWN TREND Market State Trend Strength %
MIN SEC INT PRI GRA SUP MIN SEC INT PRI GRA SUP Bias Stage Phase Overall MIN SEC INT PRI GRA
SPX 1985 1949 1850 1420 1370 1500 1576 - - - - - - 6 TN +1 41.1 1.8 5.4 30.3 3.6 -8.7
NDX 3923 3800 3740 3635 2800 2240 4800 - - - - - - 6 TN +1 62.6 3.2 1.6 2.9 29.8 25.0
RUT 1208 1180 1140 1180 870 615 855 - - - - - - 6 TN +1 78.2 1.0 3.5 -3.4 35.6 41.5
GOOGL 593 575 540 465 315 380 - - - - - - - 6 TN +1 25.7 3.1 6.5 16.1 47.6 -17.1
AMZN 337.5 330 315 405 246 - - - 337 - - - - 3 TN +1 -15.2 2.3 4.8 -22.2 64.6 -
AAPL 94 93 82.2 82.2 100 29 5.4 - - - - - - 6 TN +3 238 -1.1 7.8 5.0 -17.8 244
FB 66.3 64.15 71.4 32.3 - - - - - - - - - 5 TN +2 114.3 3.4 -10.2 121.1 - -
MSFT 41.8 41.6 41 33 31.5 37.5 60 38.9 - - - - 6 TN +4 30.9 0.5 1.5 24.2 4.8 -16.0
HPQ 34 34.1 33.9 30.1 27.8 54.7 78 - - - - - - 5 CO +3 -27.7 0.6 12.6 8.3 -49.2 -29.9
WFC 53 52.6 50 44.8 34.6 38 44.7 51.65 51.1 - - - - 6 TN +4 37.3 5.2 11.6 29.5 -8.9 -15.0
BAC 16.03 15.3 15.3 17.4 18.25 19.9 44.5 14.86 15.6 - - - - 2 TN +1 -12.0 4.8 0.0 -12.1 -4.7 -8.3
MO 42.39 41.6 37.3 38.5 36.3 29.8 25 - - - - - - 6 CO +8 16.4 1.9 11.5 -3.1 6.1 21.8

Trend = TN, Side Way=SW, Correction = CO, Consolidation=CN
Underway-Ongoing, the closing price above(Uptrend side)/below (Downtrend side) this level is forecast during the three coming weeks
New trend may be about to take hold
The trend is already ended
The trend may be ended soon
A warning that the trend may be halted(unsuitable level)
Bias:
+6 +5 +4 +3 +2 +1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6





This Is Tomorrow | Equity Markets Update


Page 7| 07-11 July 2014
Table 6: Cycle Analysis

Minor Secondary Intermediate Primary Grand Super

C
y
c
l
e

Phase
H
e
a
d
e
d

t
o

C
y
c
l
e

Phase
H
e
a
d
e
d

t
o

C
y
c
l
e

Phase
H
e
a
d
e
d

t
o

C
y
c
l
e

Phase
H
e
a
d
e
d

t
o

C
y
c
l
e

P
h
a
s
e

H
e
a
d
e
d

t
o

C
y
c
l
e

P
h
a
s
e

H
e
a
d
e
d

t
o

SPX +2 18001985 2030 +3 17381985 2060 +2 13401985 2030 +2 10751985 2500 +1 +2
NDX +3 +1 4100 +3 +2 +1 +2
RUT +2 +1 +3 +2 +1 +2
GOOGL +2 +1 +2 +2 +2 +1
AMZN +3 321.0338.3 348 +1 290.3340.7 365 +3 245405 +2 38.80408.0 +2 +1
AAPL +3 89.0594.10 94.25 +4 71.3095.05 96.7 +1 55.0095.05 96.7 +3 55.0095.05 >100.7 +1 +2
FB +3 +3 +2 +1 +1 +1
MSFT +2 +4 +2 +2 +1 +2
HPQ +1 +2 +1 +2 +1 +2
WFC +2 +3 +2 +2 +1 +2
BAC +2 +1 +3 +1 +1 +2
MO +2 +2 +1 +1 +2 +3

; The cycle may be ended (Warning stage, for confirmation new data is need) ;the cycle may be ended (based on New evidence and data)
The cycle is already ended A new cycle may be about to take hold (the likelihood of failure should be considered), the cycle remains intact (ongoing) ,


This Is Tomorrow | Equity Markets Update


Page 8| 07-11 July 2014
Table7: Demand Supply Study, Probability Distribution

Probability 4 12 33 68 84 Last 84 68 33 12 4

SPX
2050 2035 2000 1995 1987 1985 1970 1960 1949 1925 1850
S S P S S P OB D1 BL UTR D2 D3 OS
NDX
4140 4080 4000 3905 3865 3845 3800 3775 3750 3710 3695
S S S S OB S D1 BL D1 OS D10 R BL
RUT
1340 1290 1255 1212 1209 1208 1190 1180 1168 1154 1120
S S S P S D1 D2 R BL D2 D1 R OS
GOOGL
658 642 637 611 600 594 585 577 568 560 540
S S S P S D4 BL UT D2 R D2 UT
AMZN
365 362 359 348 333.7 337.4 335.7 330 325 320 312
S S S S P P D5 BL D10 BL R W
AAPL
100.7 97.3 96.7 95.05 94.25 94.03 92.7 92 91 89.65 89.1
P S S P S P UT D3 BL OS R
FB
72.6 71.4 69.6 68 66.85 66.3 66.2 65.8 63.8 62.05 61.8
P S S S P2 BS P D4 BL D D5 BL OS W
MSFT
46 44.7 44.3 42.9 41.9 41.8 41.60 41.2 41 40.35 39.6
S S S S S P D1 D2 R BL D3 R BL OS
HPQ
37.7 37 35.05 34.5 34.1 34 33.9 33.1 32.8 32.65 31.6
S S S S P P D2 BL D3 D9 OS D10 R BL
WFC
55 54.6 54 53.3 53.05 53 52.6 52.05 50.85 50 49.8
S S S S OB P UT P2 R BL D4 R BL OS W
BAC
18 17.4 16.6 16.4 16.23 16.03 15.95 15.8 15.6 15.3 15.05
S S3 OB S2 S P D3 D4 BL UT R D OS W
MO
45.3 44.1 43.3 43 42.7 42.39 41.55 41.35 41.1 39.6 39.3
S S P R S8 SL S UT D1 P R D10 BL R OS

UP-TREND=UT, DOWN-TREND=DT, RISK=R, Worst Case Scenario= W, Supply=S, Demand=D, Pivot=P, Sell Limit=SL, Sell Stop=SS, Buy Limit=BL, Buy Stop=BS
Overbought=OB, Oversold=OS





This Is Tomorrow | Equity Markets Update


Page 9| 07-11 July 2014
Table 8: Rate of change, OB, OS, Key levels
Key levels Quarter Month Rate of change (Momentum)
Demand Supply
Over
bought
Over
sold
Over
bought
Over
sold
Normal
(Fast growing)
Short
term
Medium
term
Long
term
SPX 1850 1980 1820 1980 1850 0.97 13% 2.54 34% 1.7 23% 0.59 8%
NDX 3700 3710
RUT
GOOGL
AMZN
AAPL
FB
MSFT 40.3 39.8 39.8 0.024 53% 0.07 58% 0.045 47% 0.013 26%
HPQ 31.65 37.7 37.7 31.65 35 33.1
WFC 50.3 49.8 50.8 0.11 85% 0.07 53% 0.02 35%
BAC 17.4 18 15 17.4 15.6
MO 39.1 39.25 39.6

Short-term: less than 4 weeks, Medium-term: between 1 and 3 months, Long-term: more than 9 months
(Percentage figures are compounded and annualized)














This Is Tomorrow | Equity Markets Update


Page 10| 07-11 July 2014


Table 9: Closing Price Forecast
JUL AUG SEP DEC MAR JUN SEP DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC
14 14 14 14 15 15 15 15 16 17 18 19 20
SPX
1920 1850 1850 1850 1800 1800 1800 1780 1780 1780 2000 2500
1970 1980 1950 1950 2050 2150 2150 2150 2250 2250 2500 3000
NDX
3700 3700 3800
3900 3900 4000 4150 4150 4150 4150 4150 4150 4150 4800 4800
RUT
1180 1180 1180
1250 1250 1250 1400 1400 1400 1400
GOOGL
535 580
615 615
AMZN
325 320 320 330
345 339 360 360
AAPL
88 84 84
96 96 97 97 100 100 100
FB
59.8
72 72 72 85 85 85 93
MSFT
40.3 40.3
42 44 47 47 47 47 47 47 48 52 75
HPQ
33 34 35 35 35 36 37 37 38 38
34 37 39 39 42 42 42 47.8 54 54
WFC
50.8 50 51 51 51.3 51.6 52 52 53 55 57 63 69
53 53 55 55 56.4 56.4 56.4 56.4 58.3 60 66 80 150
BAC
15.05 15.6 15.6 16
16.5 17.4 17.4 18 18 18 20 20 20 20 22 24 39
MO
39.6 39.6
43 43 45 45 47 47 47 47 47 50 62 73 90






This Is Tomorrow | Equity Markets Update


Page 11| 07-11 July 2014

Table 10: Scenario Analysis
Cycle SPX NDX RUT GOOGL AMZN AAPL FB MSFT HPQ WFC BAC MO
Grand
<10 years
From 63.3 41 33.5 50.78 15.15 41.55
To 175 87 67 120 37 93
% 176.4 109.9 100 136 144.2 123.8
Primary
> 1 year

From 1960 3736 1165 41 33.5 50.78 15.15 41.55
To 3000 6400 1800 60 54 80 25 57
% 53 71.3 54.5 44.8 61.1 57.5 65 37.0
Intermediate
> 3 months
From 1960 3736 1165 90.4 63.3 41 33.5 50.78 15.15 41.55
To 2490 4800 1340 101.4 93 50 41.8 66 20 48
% 27 28.5 15.0 10.1 46.7 20.6 24.7 30 32 15.5
Secondary
< 3 months
From 1960 3736 571 312.5 90.4 63.3 41 33.5 50.78 15.15 41.55
To 2130 4150 609 337 96.7 71.4 47 37.7 60 17.4 44.5
% 8.6 11.1 6.7 7.8 5.0 12.8 13.4 12.5 18.1 14.8 2.4
Minor
1-3 weeks
From 1960 3700 1165 41 31.6 50.8 15.35
To 2035 4000 1210 44 37.7 55 16.5
% 3.8 8.1 3.8 7.3 19.3 8.2 7.4
Correction
1-3 months
From 1960 4140 34.5
To 1850 3500 31.6
% -5.9 -15.5 -8.1
Correction
1-3 weeks
From 1985 34.5 16.5 43.1
To 1925 32.8 15.8 41.6
% -3.0 -5.1 -4.2 -3.4
Trading
1-8 weeks
From 1960 33.1 50.85 15.8 41.6
To 1980 34.1 53 16.4 43.1
% 1.0 3.0 4.2 3.7 3.6
Trading
1-8 weeks
From 52.05 41.9
To 53 43.1
% 2 2.8
This Is Tomorrow | Equity Markets Update


Page 12| 07-11 July 2014

Table 11: Trading Platform
SYMBOL LAST
ORDER
TYPE
Price
Direction/
Gain %
Risk Risk % Target
SL strategy TP strategy
C < C > IF AND C >
IF AND C <
SPX

LIMIT 1961 +1 1949
-0.61
1981 C<= 1949


NDX
LIMIT
3710 +10

C < 3700 H = 4070 C < 4070
RUT
LIMIT





GOOGL
LIMIT
585 +4 568

608.4 C < 568


AMZN
LIMIT
330 +5 320

346.5 C < 320


AAPL
LIMIT
91 +3 88

93.73 C < 89.1


FB
LIMIT
65.8 +4 65.8

68.43 C < 65.8


MSFT
LIMIT
41 +2 40.9
-0.24
41.82 C < 40.9


HPQ
LIMIT
31.1 +3 31.6
-4.5
34.1 C < 31.6

WFC
LIMIT
52.05 +4 52.05
-1.7
53 C < 52.05
H = 53 C < 52.6
BAC
LIMIT
15.8 +4 15.6
-1.2
16.43 C <15.6
H = 16.4 C < 16.4
MO
LIMIT
43 -8 43.3
-0.7
39.8 C > 43.3 H=40.6 C > 41.1

SPX

STOP




NDX

STOP




RUT

STOP




GOOGL

STOP




AMZN

STOP




AAPL

STOP




FB

STOP




MSFT

STOP




HPQ

STOP




WFC

STOP




BAC

STOP




MO

STOP





This Is Tomorrow | Equity Markets Update


Page 13| 07-11 July 2014
Table 12: Pending Orders (more than 10% expected gain)
SYMBOL LAST
ORDER
TYPE
Direction
%


SL strategy TP strategy
Price Risk
% Risk
Target C < C > IF AND C >
IF AND C <
GOOGL
LIMIT




AMZN
LIMIT
+10 325




AAPL
LIMIT




FB
LIMIT





MSFT
LIMIT
+10 40.3 40.3 0.0 44.33 C <40.3

H = 41.6 C < 41.6
HPQ
LIMIT
+15 31.7 31.6 -0.3 36.45 C < 31.6 H = 35 C < 35
WFC
LIMIT
+10 50.8 50.8 0.0 45.8 C < 50.8 H = 53 C < 53
BAC
LIMIT




MO
LIMIT
+20 39.6 39.20 -1.02 47.1 C < 39.20

H = 43 C < 42.5
GOOGL

STOP




AMZN

STOP




AAPL

STOP




FB

STOP




MSFT

STOP




HPQ

STOP




WFC

STOP -2




BAC

STOP




MO

STOP












This Is Tomorrow | Equity Markets Update


Page 14| 07-11 July 2014
SPX Forecast




This Is Tomorrow | Equity Markets Update


Page 15| 07-11 July 2014








Research Analyst: Rayan Massah
Email Contact: rayan.massah@gmail.com




This Is Tomorrow, Financial Markets Update is a research based on new approach to quantitative
analysis in which the goal is to develop better understanding of market movements and risk management.
This is a practical solution and comprehensive picture of certain security with a view to improve
investment performance. It offers a smart trading capability along with a disciplined approach.
This Is Tomorrow
FINANCIAL MARKETS UPDATE