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Trinadh Mamandur 05/01/2014

Southwestern University (A) Report

As a consultant of Southwestern University, below is my report on the case analysis.
Analysis of the Case:
Bob Hill wants a confidence of at least 75% that the project will be completed before the 270
th
day
If confidence is less than 75% then the project will be crashed.
Mr. Hill wants to see a comparison for target dates of 240 and 250 days along the cost difference.
1. Identify activity durations
2. Construct a network diagram
3. Determine the probability of completion in less than 270 days
4. If required crash project to desired duration and calculate additional cost to the project.

Table 1:

Expected activity time (t) : t= (o+4m+p)/6
Variance of activity completion time:
Variance = ((p-o)/6)
2

Excel OM project management software has been used to analyze the case and results are as follows:

The Estimates (Days)
o m p
Activity Description Preccessor(s) Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic Expected Time Variance Crash (cost/day)
A. Bonding, insurance, tax structuring 20 30 40 30 11.1 1,500
B. Foundation, concrete footings for boxes A 20 65 80 60 100 3,500
C. Upgrading skybox, stadium seating A 50 60 100 65 69.4 4,000
D. Upgrading walkways, stairwells, elevators C 30 50 100 55 136.1 1,900
E. Interior wiring, lathes B 25 50 35 30 2.8 9,500
F. Inspection approvals E 0.1 0.1 0.1 1 0 0
G. Plumbing D, E 25 30 35 30 2.8 2,500
H. Painting G 10 20 30 20 11.1 2,000
I. Hardware/AC/metal workings H 20 25 60 30 44.4 2,000
J. Tile/carpeting/windows H 8 10 12 10 0.4 6,000
K. Inspection J 0.1 0.1 0.1 1 0 0
L. Final detail work/cleanup I, K 20 25 60 30 44.4 4,500
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Trinadh Mamandur 05/01/2014
Table 2

Therefore from the above analysis, the critical path using the expected time is:
Activity A (30 days) -> Activity C (65 days) -> Activity D (55 days) -> Activity G (30 days)
-> Activity H (20 days) -> Activity I (30 days) -> Activity L (30 days).
Expected Days of Completion: 260 days.
Project Variance (from Table 1) = 11.1111+69.4444+136.1111+2.7778+11.1111+44.4444+44.4444
= 319.4443

Project Standard Deviation = (319 .4443)
= 17.87 days

Project Management Precedences; 1 time estimate For Expected Time Estimate
Data Immediate Predecessors (1 per column)
Activity Time Pred 1 Pred 2
A 30
B 60 A
C 65 A
D 55 C
E 30 B
F 1 E
G 30 D E
H 20 G
I 30 H
J 10 H
K 1 J
L 30 I K
Results
Activity
Early
Start Early Finish
Late
Start
Late
Finish Slack
A 0 30 0 30 0
B 30 90 60 120 30
C 30 95 30 95 0
D 95 150 95 150 0
E 90 120 120 150 30
F 120 121 259 260 139
G 150 180 150 180 0
H 180 200 180 200 0
I 200 230 200 230 0
J 200 210 219 229 19
K 210 211 229 230 19
L 230 260 230 260 0
Project 260
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
L
K
J
I
H
G
F
E
D
C
B
A
Time
Gantt Chart
Critical Activity Noncritical Activity Slack
Enter the times in the appropriate column(s). Enter the precedences, one per column. (Do not try to
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Trinadh Mamandur 05/01/2014
To determine the confidence level for the project:
Z = (due date expected date)/Proj Std Deviation
= (270 260)/ 17.87
= 0.5595
p(Z > .5595) = 0.71226 or 71.3 %
Thus, there is 71.3% chance that the expansion of the on-campus stadium can be accomplished in 260
days.
If Expected Date of completion is 250 days. Inputting the values in the above formula,
We get, Z = 86.6%

If Expected Date of completion is 240 days. Inputting the values in the above formula,
We get, Z = 95.26%

To be able to crash to 250 days,
Crash A for 10 days down to 20 days
10 days*\$1,500 = \$15,000
Total Extra Cost = \$15,000
To be able to crash to 240 days,
First to crash is activity A, this has the lowest cost of \$1,500. The duration of activity A can only be
reduced by 10 days maximum; thus cost of \$1,500 multiplied by 10 is \$15,000.
The next one to be crashed is activity D which has the cost of \$1,900. Crash D for 10 days down to 10
days; thus cost of \$1,900 multiplied by 10 is \$19,000.
Total cost = \$34,000

Points to be noted:
In order to crash the project to 250 days, task A can be reduced by 10 days which will have an
additional cost of \$15,000 with an 86% chance that the project will be completed by 270th day.
To crash the project to 240 days, both tasks A and D can be reduced by 10 days that would
create an additional cost of \$34,000 for the project and increase the chance for completion to
95%.
There is a 71.23% chance that the stadium will be in place with the 270 day deadline
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Trinadh Mamandur 05/01/2014
7 activites (A,C,D,G,H,I,L) are on the critical path. If any one of them is delayed for any reason,
the entire project will be delayed.
5 activities (B,E,F,J,K) are not critical but have some slack time built in. This means Southwestern
University can borrow from their resources, if needed, possibly to speed up the entire project
Conclusion
According to the above analysis, there is a better chance of the building project being finished when the
expected date of completion is 240 days at a 95.25% confidence. Crashing the project to 240 days seems
to be the most beneficial according to time. The costs will increase, however, considering the only
concern of the coach is to have the field ready for opening day, crashing the deadline to 240 days is
what is best.

Thanks,
Trinadh Mamandur