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15 More about Probability

15 More about Probability

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Activity 4. Number of combinations = 4 ×3

=12
Activity 15.1 (p. 11) 1
P(tuna salad and soft drink) =12
1. Experiment Event A Event B
Throwing a die Obtaining ‘1’ Obtaining ‘2’
once Getting an odd Getting a prime 1 1 1
number number 5. (a) = ×
12 4 3
Drawing a card Drawing a king Drawing the ace (b) P ( A and B ) = P ( A) ×P ( B )
from a deck of of hearts
52 cards at Drawing a queen Drawing a spade
random
Follow-up Exercise
Choosing a The letter is ‘T’ The letter is ‘I’
letter from the The letter is ‘I’ The letter is a p. 7
word ‘TRICK’ vowel
Are A and B 1. (a) ∵ There are 13 hearts in the deck.
mutually ∴ Number of outcomes favourable to the event = 13
P(A) P(B) P(A or B) P(A) +
exclusive? P(B) 13
=
(/ ) ∴ P(heart) 52
1 1 1 1 1
 =
6 6 3 3 4

1 1 2 (b) ∵ There are 4 queens in the deck.

 1 ∴ Number of outcomes favourable to the event = 4
2 2 3
4
=
1 1 5 5 52
 ∴ P(queen)
13 52 52 52 1
=
1 1 4 17 13

13 4 13 52
2. (a) Since there are 4 possible outcomes in choosing a
1 1 2 2 letter from the word ‘LIST’ and 6 possible outcomes

5 5 5 5 in choosing a letter from the word ‘STUPID’, by the
counting principle, the total number of possible
1 1 1 2 outcomes in choosing a letter from each of the words

5 5 5 5 is: 4 × 6 = 24
There are 3 favourable outcomes: II, SS and TT
2. P ( A or B ) = P ( A) + P ( B ) 3
=
∴ P(same letter) 24
3. No 1
=
Activity 15.2 (p. 19)
8

1
1. P(tuna salad) = 4

1
2. P(soft drink) = 3

3. Yes

1
Certificate Mathematics in Action Full Solutions 5B

(b) There are 3 consonants in the word ‘LIST’ and 4 (b) From the table, there are 8 times getting a ‘1’, 33
consonants in the word ‘STUPID’. By the counting times getting a ‘3’ and 21 times getting a ‘5’.
principle, the total number of favourable outcomes in ∴ Number of times getting an odd number
choosing a consonant from each of the words is:
= 8 +33 + 21
3 × 4 = 12
= 62
12
= 62
∴ P(both consonants) 24 =
∴ P(odd number) 100
1
= 31
2 =
50

3. Let C stand for a correct answer and W stand for a

wrong answer. p. 14
By using a tree diagram, we have: 1. Total number of possible outcomes = 10
First Second Third Outcomes (a) There are 5 favourable outcomes: 21, 23, 25, 27 and
question question question 29
C CCC 5
C =
∴ P(odd number) 10
W CCW
C 1
=
C CWC 2
W
(b) There are 2 favourable outcomes: 24 and 28
W CWW
2
=
C WCC ∴ P(divisible by 4) 10
C 1
W WCW =
5
W
C WWC (c) P(odd number or divisible by 4)
W = P (odd number) + P (divisible by 4)
W WWW
1 1
= +
From the tree diagram, there are 8 possible outcomes. 2 5
(a) There is 1 favourable outcome for getting 3 7
=
correct answers, i.e. CCC. 10
1
∴ P(3 correct answers) = 8
2. Total number of people in the group
(b) There are 3 favourable outcomes for getting 2 = 16 +12 +12 + 21 + 28 +16 + 4 +11
wrong answers, i.e. CWW, WCW and WWC.
= 120
3
∴ P(2 wrong answers) = 8 (a) P(man with blood type ‘AB’ or woman with blood
type ‘A’)
= P(man with blood type ‘AB’) +
4. (a) From the table, there are 24 times getting a ‘2’. = P(woman with blood type ‘A’)
24 28 12
= = +
∴ P(‘2’) 100 120 120
6 1
= =
25 3
(b) P(‘A’ or ‘B’ or ‘AB’)
= P(‘A’) + P(‘B’) + P(‘AB’)

2
15 More about Probability

16 +12 12 + 21 28 +16
= + +
120 120 120
105
=
120
7
=
8

3
Certificate Mathematics in Action Full Solutions 5B

3. Let G stand for a green ball, R stand for a red ball, B p. 24

stand for a blue ball and W stand for a white ball.
= P (prime) ×P (prime)
By the counting principle, the total number of possible
outcomes in drawing two balls is: 3 × 4 = 12 3 3
1. P(both prime) = 6 × 6
(a) There is 1 favourable outcome: GG
1 1
=
∴ P(both green) =12 4
(b) There are 2 favourable outcomes: RR and RR
2. P(sum is odd)
2
=
∴ P(both red) 12 = P (odd and even or even and odd)
1
= = P (odd and even) + P (even and odd)
6
= P (odd) ×P (even ) + P (even ) ×P (odd )
(c) There are 3 favourable outcomes: GR, GR and RG 1 1 1 1
3 = × + ×
= 2 2 2 2
∴ P(one green and one red) 12 1
1 =
= 2
4
3. P(Amy passes at least one subject)
p. 17
1. (a) A’ = getting an odd number =1 −P ( Amy fails both subjects)
(b) A’ = getting a heart, diamond or club =1 −P (fail Chinese) ×P (fail English)
(c) A’ = the man does not have a private car =1 −[1 −P ( pass Chinese)] ×[1 −P ( pass English )]

=1 −P (wear glasses) =1 −(1 −0.75 ) ×(1 −0.6)

2. P(does not wear glasses) =1 −0.4 =0.9
=0.6 1 1
4. P(lose the 100 m race) = 1 − =
2 2
3. By the counting principle, the total number of possible 3 1
outcomes in throwing three dice is: 6 × 6 × 6 = 216 P(lose the 200 m race) = 1 − =
4 4
The complementary event of ‘product is greater than 2’ is
1 7
‘product equals to 1 or 2’. P(lose the 400 m race) = 1 − =
∵ There are 4 favourable outcomes that the product of 8 8
the three numbers equals to 1 or 2, i.e. (1, 1, 1), Let W stand for winning a race and L stand for losing a race.
(1, 1, 2), (1, 2, 1) and (2, 1, 1). P(Harry wins exactly one race)
4 = P ( WLL) + P (LWL) + P ( LLW )
=
∴ P(product equals to 1 or 2) 216 1 1 7 1 3 7 1 1 1
= × × + × × + × ×
1 2 4 8 2 4 8 2 4 8
=
54 7 21 1
= + +
∴ P(product greater than 2) 64 64 64
=1 − P (product equals to 1 or 2) 29
=
1 64
=1 −
54
53 p. 29
=
54 1. Let C stand for a correct answer and W stand for a wrong
Since Anthony answers the first question correctly, the
possible outcomes are CCC, CCW, CWC and CWW.
Among the 4 possible outcomes, only CCW and CWC are
favourable outcomes.

4
15 More about Probability

∴ P(2 of 3 questions are correct | 1st question is correct)

2
=
4
1
=
2

5
Certificate Mathematics in Action Full Solutions 5B

2. (a) ∵ The first card drawn is the ace of spades. 2. Let B denote a black glove, E denote a blue glove and W
∴ Only 13 hearts are left after the first draw. denote a white glove.
Only 51 cards are left after the first draw. (a) P(BB)
∴ P(heart | the first card drawn is the ace of
spades) = P (1st one is black ) × P ( 2nd one is black |
13 1st one is black)
=
51 4 3
= ×
(b) ∵ The first card drawn is the ace of spades. 10 9
∴ Only 3 aces are left after the first draw. 2
=
Only 51 cards are left after the first draw. 15
∴ P(ace | the first card drawn is the ace of spades)
(b) P(same colour)
3
=
51 = P (BB or EE or WW )
1
= = P ( BB) + P ( EE ) + P ( WW )
17
2
= + P (1st one is blue ) × P ( 2nd one is blue |
15
3. (a) Total number of students = 425 + 218 +157 1st one is blue ) + P (1st one is white ) × P ( 2nd one
= 800
is white | 1st one is white)
218
= 2 2 1 4 3
∴ P(disagree | student) 800 = + × + ×
109 15 10 9 10 9
= 13
400 =
45
(b) Total number of people agree = 425 + 92
= 517 3. P(colour-blind)
92
∴ P(teacher | agree) = 517
= P (male and colour -blind or female and colour -blind )
= P ( male and colour -blind ) +P (female and colour -blind
p. 32
= P ( male ) ×P (colour -blind | male ) +
1. (a) P(both defective)
P (female ) ×P (colour -blind | female )
= P (1st one is defective ) × P ( 2nd one is defective | .62 ×0.03 +(1 −0.62 ) ×0.02
= 0
1st one is defective) = 0.0262

15 14
= ×
100 99
Exercise
7
=
330 Exercise 15A (p. 8)

1. Total number of possible outcomes = 3 + 4 + 5

= P (1st one is non -defective ) ×P ( 2nd one is =12
non -defective | 1st one is non -defective) (a) ∵ The bag contains 3 red balls.
85 84 ∴ Number of outcomes favourable to the event =
= × 3
100 99
3
119 =
= ∴ P(red ball) 12
165
1
=
4
(b) ∵ The bag contains 4 white balls.

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15 More about Probability

∴ Number of outcomes favourable to the event =

4
4
=
∴ P(white ball) 12
1
=
3

7
Certificate Mathematics in Action Full Solutions 5B

(c) ∵ The bag contains 0 green balls.

∴ Number of outcomes favourable to the event =
0
0
∴ P(green ball) =12
=0

2. Total number of possible outcomes = 6

(a) There are 4 favourable outcomes: 1, 2, 3 and 4
4
=
∴ P(not greater than 4) 6
2
=
3
(b) There are 3 favourable outcomes: 1, 2 and 3
3
=
∴ P(less than 4) 6
1
=
2

3. Total number of possible outcomes = 10

(a) ∵ The word contains 2 ‘L’.
∴ Number of outcomes favourable to the event =
2
2
=
∴ P(‘L’) 10
1
=
5
(b) ∵ The word contains 5 vowels.
∴ Number of outcomes favourable to the event =
5
5
=
∴ P(vowel) 10
1
=
2

4. (a) There is only 1 favourable outcome.

1
∴ P(jack of clubs) = 52

(b) ∵ There are 9 number cards in each suit and there

are 4 suits.
∴ Number of outcomes favourable to the event
= 9 ×4
= 36
36
=
∴ P(number card) 52
9
=
13

8
15 More about Probability

5. (a) There are 8 favourable outcomes: 3, 6, 9, 12, 15, 18,

21 and 24
8
=
∴ P(multiple of 3) 24
1
=
3
(b) There are 6 favourable outcomes: 4, 8, 12, 16, 20 and
24
6
=
∴ P(multiple of 4) 24
1
=
4
(c) There are 2 favourable outcomes: 12 and 24
2
=
∴ P(common multiple of 3 and 4) 24
1
=
12

6. (a) From the table, there are 4 boxes containing no

defective light bulbs.
4
=
∴ P(no defective light bulbs) 40
1
=
10
(b) From the table, there are 11 boxes containing
two defective light bulbs, 15 boxes containing
one defective light bulb and 4 boxes containing
no defective light bulbs.
∴ Number of boxes containing less than three
defective light bulbs
= 4 +15 +11
= 30
30
=
∴ P(less than three defective light bulbs) 40
3
=
4

7. (a) From the table, there are 115 times getting a ‘2’.
115
=
∴ P(‘2’) 1000
23
=
200

9
Certificate Mathematics in Action Full Solutions 5B

(b) From the table, there are 115 times getting a ‘2’, 3
103 times getting a ‘3’ and 118 times getting a ∴ P(two boys and one girl) = 8
‘5’.
∴ Number of times getting a prime number
=115 +103 +118
= 336
336
=
∴ P(prime number) 1000
42
=
125

8. Total number of balls = 6, red ball = 2, blue ball = 3

or
total number of balls = 12, red ball = 4, blue ball = 6
(or any other reasonable answers)

9. It is uncertain. Their probabilities are equal if bag A and

bag B contain the same number of balls.

Level 2
10. Number of times the tail shows up = 80 −32
= 48
48
=
∴ P(getting a tail) 80
3
=
5

11. Let B stand for a boy and G stand for a girl.

By using a tree diagram, we have:
First child Second child Third child Outcomes
B BBB
B
G BBG
B
B BGB
G
G BGG

B GBB
B
G GBG
G
B GGB
G
G GGG

From the tree diagram, there are 8 possible outcomes.

(a) There is 1 favourable outcome for all boys, i.e. BBB.
1
∴ P(all boys) = 8

(b) There are 3 favourable outcomes for two boys

and one girl, i.e. BBG, BGB and GBB.

10
15 More about Probability

12. Let W stand for a white straw, R stand for a red straw 4
and G stand for a green straw. =
∴ P(the sum is 9) 36
By using a tree diagram, we have: 1
Bag A Bag B Outcomes =
9
W WW
W WW
W R WR
R WR
G WG
W RW
W RW
R R RR
R RR
G RG
W GW
W GW
G R GR
R GR
G GG
W GW
W GW
G R GR
R GR
G GG

From the tree diagram, there are 20 possible outcomes.

(a) There are 6 favourable outcomes for two straws of
the same colour, i.e. WW, WW, RR, RR, GG and GG.
6
=
∴ P(same colour) 20
3
=
10
(b) There are 5 favourable outcomes for one red and
one green straw, i.e. RG, GR, GR, GR and GR.
5
=
∴ P(one red and one green) 20
1
=
4

13. Since there are 6 possible outcomes in throwing a die

once, by the counting principle, the total number of
possible outcomes in throwing two dice is: 6 × 6 = 36
(a) There are 6 favourable outcomes: (1, 6), (2, 5), (3, 4),
(4, 3), (5, 2) and (6, 1)
6
=
∴ P(the sum is 7) 36
1
=
6
(b) There are 4 favourable outcomes: (3, 6), (4, 5),
(5, 4) and (6, 3)

11
Certificate Mathematics in Action Full Solutions 5B

14. Since there are 4 possible outcomes for urn A and 4 Exercise 15B (p. 17)
possible outcomes for urn B, by the counting principle, the
total number of possible outcomes in drawing one ball Level 1
from each urn is: 4 × 4 = 16 1. P(red card or jack of spades)
= P ( red card ) + P ( jack of spades )
(a) There are 2 favourable outcomes: (5, 5) and (7, 7)
2 26 1
= = +
16 52 52
∴ P(same number)
1 27
= =
8 52

(b) There are 2 favourable outcomes: (1, 8) and (7, 2)

2 =1 − P (defective )
= 5
16
∴ P(sum of 9) 2. P(non-defective) =1 −1000
1
= 199
8 =
200
(c) There are 5 favourable outcomes: (5, 7), (5, 8),
(7, 5), (7, 7) and (7, 8)
5 = P ( rainy ) + P (cloudy )
∴ P(sum greater than 11) =16
1 2
3. P(rainy or cloudy) = 4 + 5
15. By the counting principle, the total number of possible 13
outcomes in forming a four-digit number is: =
20
4 ×3 × 2 ×1 = 24
(a) There are 6 favourable outcomes: 3564, 3654, 5364,
5634, 6354 and 6534 4. (a) There are 4 favourable outcomes: U, E, A and I
6 4
= ∴ P(vowel) =13
∴ P(ends with a ‘4’) 24
1 =1 − P ( vowel )
=
4 4
(b) P(consonant) =1 −13
(b) There are 12 favourable outcomes in which 6
outcomes end with ‘4’ and 6 outcomes end with ‘6’. 9
=
12 13
=
∴ P(even number) 24
1 5. Total number of people in the group
=
2 = 47 + 62 + 33 +18 + 40
(c) Since 3 + 4 + 5 + 6 = 18 is a multiple of 3, any = 200
numbers formed by 3, 4, 5 and 6 must be a multiple (a) P(‘Cartoon’ or ‘Popular music’)
of 3. = P(‘Cartoon’) + P(‘Popular music’)
∴ There is no prime number formed by 3, 4, 5 and 18 40
= +
6. 200 200
0 29
∴ P(prime number) = 24 =
100
=0
(b) P(‘Drama’ or ‘Sports’ or ‘Popular music’)
= 1 – P(‘News’ or ‘Cartoon’)
= 1 – [P(‘News’) + P(‘Cartoon’)]
 47 18 
=1 − + 
 200 200 
27
=
40

12
15 More about Probability

13
Certificate Mathematics in Action Full Solutions 5B

6. Let H stand for a head and T stand for a tail. =1 − P (all boys )
By the counting principle, the total number of possible 1
outcomes in tossing two coins is: 2 × 2 = 4 ∴ P(at least one girl) =1 − 8
(a) There are 2 favourable outcomes: HT and TH 7
2 =
= 8
∴ P(one head and one tail) 4
1 9. They are not complementary events because if one
=
2 even number and one odd number are obtained,
neither events occur.
(b) There is 1 favourable outcome: TT
1
∴ P(two tails) = 4

=1 − P (either or both of them are tails )

=1 −[ P (one head and one tail) + P ( two tails )]
1 1
=1 − + 
2 4
1
=
4

7. (a) There are 6 favourable outcomes: 1, 3, 5, 7, 9 and 11

6
=
∴ P(odd number) 12
1
=
2
(b) There are 3 favourable outcomes: 4, 8 and 12
3
=
∴ P(multiple of 4) 12
1
=
4
(c) P(odd number or multiple of 4)
= P (odd number ) + P ( multiple of 4)
1 1
= +
2 4
3
=
4

8. By the counting principle, the total number of possible

outcomes is: 2 × 2 × 2 = 8
There is 1 favourable outcome for all boys.
1
∴ P(all boys) =
8

14
15 More about Probability

10. No, because getting a ‘2’ is a favourable outcome to both

events of ‘getting a prime number’ and ‘getting an even 15. By the counting principle, the total number of possible
number’. outcomes is: 6 × 6 = 36

Level 2 (a) There are 3 favourable outcomes for sum less than 4:
sum equals 2: (1, 1)
11. By the counting principle, the total number of possible sum equals 3: (1, 2), (2, 1)
outcomes is: 6 × 6 = 36
There are 10 favourable outcomes for sum less than 6:
sum equals 2: (1, 1) 3
=
sum equals 3: (1, 2), (2, 1) 36
∴ P(sum less than 4)
sum equals 4: (1, 3), (2, 2), (3, 1) 1
sum equals 5: (1, 4), (2, 3), (3, 2), (4, 1) =
10 12
=
∴ P(sum less than 6) 36
5 (b) There are 4 favourable outcomes for sum equals 5:
= (1, 4), (4, 1), (2, 3) and (3, 2)
18
4
=
12. P(neither black nor white) ∴ P(sum equals 5) 36
1
=
=1 − P ( black or white ) 9
=1 −[ P ( black ) + P ( white )] ∴ P(sum not equals 5)
4 1
=1 − P (sum equals 5)
=1 − + 
15 6
1
17 =1 −
= 9
30 8
=
9
13. P(team B wins)
(c) There are 8 favourable outcomes:
=1 − P ( team A wins or draws ) sum equals 4: (1, 3), (2, 2), (3, 1)
sum equals 5: (1, 4), (2, 3), (3, 2), (4, 1)
=1 −[ P ( team A wins ) + P (draws )] sum equals 12: (6, 6)
3 1 8
=1 − +  =
8 4 P(sum equals 4 or 5 or 12) 36
3 2
= =
8 9

14. (a) P(either team A or team B wins) 120 °

P ( MTR ) =
16. (a) 360 °
= P ( team A wins ) + P ( team B wins )
1
1 1 =
= + 3
3 4
7 20 °
= P ( taxi ) =
12 (b) 360 °
1
(b) P(neither of the teams win) =
18
=1 − P (either tea m A or team B wins ) P ( MTR or taxi ) = P ( MTR ) + P ( taxi )
7 1 1
=1 − = +
12 (c) 3 18
5 7
= =
12 18

15
Certificate Mathematics in Action Full Solutions 5B

(d) Angle subtended by the sector ‘bus’ = P (1st number is odd) ×P ( 2nd number is odd )
= 360 ° −120 ° −20 ° −14 ° −33 ° −13 ° 3 3
=160 ° = ×
6 6
=1 − P ( bus ) 1
=
160 ° 4
=1 −
360 °
∴ P(not by bus) 200
= =1 − P ( product is odd )
360 1
5 (b) P(product is even) =1 − 4
=
9 3
=
4
Exercise 15C (p. 25)
Level 1 5. (a) P(2CDs of male singers)
1. P(both blue) = P(CD of male singer from 1st box) ×
= P(CD of male singer from 2nd box)
= P (1st one is blue ) ×P ( 2nd one is blue ) 3 2
= ×
4 3 3 +5 2 +3
= × 3
8 9 =
1 20
=
6 (b) P(a CD of male singer and a CD of female singer)
= P(CD of male singer from 1st box and CD of
= female singer from 2nd box or CD of female singer
2. P(uses broadband service and has 4 members) = from 1st box and CD of male singer from 2nd box)
= P(CD of male singer from 1st box and CD of
= P ( uses broadband service ) ×P ( has 4 members ) = female singer from 2nd box) + P(CD of female
=0.8 ×0.6 = singer from 1st box and CD of male singer from
=0.48 = 2nd box)
= P(CD of male singer from 1st box) × P(CD of
3. (a) P(both cards are spade) = female singer from 2nd box) + P(CD of female
= singer from 1st box) × P(CD of male singer from
= 2nd box)
= P (1st card is spade ) ×P ( 2nd card is spade )
3 3 5 2
13 13 = × + ×
= × 8 5 8 5
52 52
19
1 =
= 40
16
(b) P(one is ace and one is king) 6. (a) P(both solve the problem)
= P(1st card is ace and 2nd card is king or = P(Terrence solves the problem) × P(Sara solves
= 1st card is king and 2nd card is ace) the
= P(1st card is ace and 2nd card is king) + = problem)
= P(1st card is king and 2nd card is ace)
2 3
= P(1st card is ace) × P(2nd card is king) + = ×
= P(1st card is king) × P(2nd card is ace) 3 4
4 4 4 4 1
= × + × =
52 52 52 52 2
2 (b) P(exactly one of them solves the problem)
=
169 = P(Terrence solves the problem and Sara cannot or
= Sara solves the problem and Terrence cannot)
= P(Terrence solves the problem and Sara cannot) +
4. (a) P(product is odd) = P(Sara solves the problem and Terrence cannot)
= P(Terrence solves the problem) × P(Sara cannot
= solve the problem) + P(Terrence cannot solve the

16
15 More about Probability

= problem) × P(Sara solves the problem) =1 − P ( no one hits the target )

2  3  2 3 1
= ×1 −  + 1 −  × =1 −
3  4  3 4 4
5 3
= =
12 4

Level 2 11. Let C stand for a correct answer and W stand for a wrong
7. Let S stand for a worker suffers from occupational illness answer.
and N stand for a worker does not suffer from = P (CCCC )
occupational illness.
1 1 1 1
P(exactly two of the three workers suffer from the illness) (a) P(all answers correct) = 4 × 4 × 4 × 4
= P(SSN or SNS or NSS)
= P(SSN) + P(SNS) + P(NSS) 1
=
= 0.15 × 0.15 × (1 – 0.15) + 0.15 × (1 – 0.15) × 0.15 + 256
= (1 – 0.15) × 0.15 × 0.15
(b) P(only 3 answers correct)
= 0.057 375 = P(WCCC or CWCC or CCWC or CCCW)
= P(WCCC) + P(CWCC) + P(CCWC) + P(CCCW)
3 1 1 1 1 3 1 1
= × × × + × × × +
4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
1 1 3 1 1 1 1 3
× × × + × × ×
4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
8. P(two letters drawn are the same) 3
=
= P ( HH or EE or II or SS ) 64
= P ( HH ) + P ( EE ) + P ( II ) + P (SS )
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
= × + × + × + ×
11 7 11 7 11 7 11 7 12. Let M stand for a shot is made and N stand for a shot is
=
77 = P ( MMMM )
2 2 2 2
9. Let S stand for a son and D stand for a daughter. (a) P(four shots in four trials) = 5 × 5 × 5 × 5
P(both children are of the same sex) 16
= P (SS or DD ) =
625
= P (SS ) + P ( DD )
(b) P(more than 2 shots out of 4 trials)
3 2 3 4
= × + ×
3 +3 2 + 4 3 +3 2 + 4
1
=
2

10. (a) P(no one hits the target)

= P(Alan, Anthony and Scarlet do not hit the target)
= P(Alan not hit the target) × P(Anthony not hit the
= target) × P(Scarlet not hit the target)
 1  1  1
= 1 −  ×1 −  ×1 − 
 2  3  4
1
=
4
(b) P(the target is hit)

17
Certificate Mathematics in Action Full Solutions 5B

= P (3 shots out of 4 trials or 4 shots out of 4 trials ) = forgets to bring)]

=(1 −0.01 ) ×(1 −0.01 ) ×... ×(1 −0.01 )
= P (3 shots out of 4 trials) + P ( 4 shots out of
=0.99 40

4 trials )
=0.6690 (cor. to 4 sig. fig.)
= P ( MMMN or MMNM or MNMM or
(b) P(at least one student forgets to bring the textbook)
16
NMMM) +
625 =1 −P (all the students bring the textbook )
= P ( MMMN ) + P ( MMNM) + P ( MNMM ) + =1 −0.6690
16 = 0.3310 (cor. to 4 sig. fig.)
P ( NMMM) +
625
2 2 2  2 2 2  2
= × × ×1 −  + × ×1 −  × Exercise 15D (p. 33)
5 5 5  5 5 5  5
Level 1
2 2  2 2 2  2
+ ×1 −  × × + 1 −  × 1. There are 3 possible outcomes for an odd number: 1, 3 and
5 5  5 5 5  5 5
2 2 2 16 Among the possible outcomes, only 3 and 5 are favourable
× × + outcomes.
5 5 5 625
2
112 ∴ P(prime number | odd number) = 3
=
625

2. (a) There are 12 possible outcomes for a face card.

13. (a) P(B)
Among the possible outcomes, only the jack, queen
= P(upper branch and lower branch and upper
and king of spades are favourable outcomes.
= branch)
3
= P(upper branch) × P(lower branch) × P(upper =
= branch) ∴ P(spade | face card) 12
1 1 1 1
= × × =
2 2 2 4
1
=
8 (b) There are 39 possible outcomes for not a club.
Among the possible outcomes, only 13 cards are
(b) P(C or D) favourable outcomes.
= P(C) + P(D) 13
=
= P(upper branch and lower branch and lower 39
∴ P(spade | not a club)
branch) = + P(lower branch and uppest branch) 1
= P(upper branch) × P(lower branch) × =
3
= P(lower branch) + P(lower branch) ×
= P(uppest branch)
=
1 1 1 1 1
× × + × 3. (a) Total number of girls =15 +9
2 2 2 2 3 = 24
7 15
= =
24 24
P(wear glasses | girl)
5
=
8
14. (a) P(all the students bring the textbook)
= P(1st, 2nd, … , 40th students bring the textbook)
= P(1st student brings) × P(2nd student brings) × … (b) Total number of students wear glasses =10 +15
= × P(40th student brings) = 25
= [1 – P(1st student forgets to bring)] × [1 – P(2nd
= student forgets to bring)] × … × [1 – P(40th
student

18
15 More about Probability

10 (b) P(all are of the same sex)

= = P(all boys or all girls)
P(boy | wear glasses) 25
= P(all boys) + P(all girls)
2
=
5 11
= + P (1st girl ) ×P ( 2nd girl | 1st girl ) ×
82
4. (a) Total number of tapes = 42 +8 P (3rd girl | 1st and 2nd girl )
= 50 11 20 19 18
= + × ×
P(first tape is used while the second one is new) 82 42 41 40
= P(first tape is used) × P(second tape is new | first 67
= tape is used) =
8 42 287
= ×
50 49
7. (a) ∵ The first ball drawn is a multiple of 5.
24
= ∴ Only 29 balls are left after the first draw.
175
Only 4 balls are left that is a multiple of 7.
(b) P(both of them are used) ∴ P(2nd ball is a multiple of 7 | 1st ball is a
= P(first tape is used and second tape is used) 4
= P(first tape is used) × P(second tape is used | first multiple of 5) = 29
= tape is used)
(b) ∵ The first ball drawn is a multiple of 5.
8 7
= × ∴ Only 29 balls are left after the first draw.
50 49
Only 5 balls are left that is a multiple of 5.
4
= ∴ P(2nd ball is a multiple of 5 | 1st ball is a
175 5
multiple of 5) = 29
5. (a) P(first piece is a corner piece while the second is not)
= P(first piece is a corner piece) × P(second piece is
Level 2
= not a corner piece | first piece is a corner piece)
4 196 8. P(both even)
= × = P(1st card is even and 2nd card is even)
200 199 = P(1st card is even) × P(2nd card is even | 1st card is even)
98 5 4
= = ×
4975 10 9
(b) P(both are corner pieces) 2
=
= P(1st piece is a corner piece and 2nd piece is a 9
= corner piece)
= P(1st piece is a corner piece) × P(2nd piece is a
9. Let R denote a red ball and Y denote a yellow ball.
= corner piece | 1st piece is a corner piece)
4 3 Total number of balls =14 +10
= ×
200 199 = 24
3 = P ( R ) ×P ( Y | R )
=
9950 14 10
(a) P(RY) = 24 × 23
6. (a) P(all boys) 35
= P(1st boy and 2nd boy and 3rd boy) =
138
= P(1st boy) × P(2nd boy | 1st boy) ×
= P(3rd boy | 1st and 2nd boy) (b) P(same colour)
22 21 20
= × ×
42 41 40
11
=
82

19
Certificate Mathematics in Action Full Solutions 5B

= P ( RR or YY ) 5
∴ P(sum of the numbers is 6) = 36
= P ( RR ) + P ( YY )
= P ( R ) ×P ( R | R ) + P ( Y ) × P ( Y | Y ) (b) There are 3 odd numbers on a die. By the counting
14 13 10 9 principle, the total number of favourable outcomes is:
= × + × 3 ×3 = 9
24 23 24 23
34 9
= =
69 ∴ P(both odd) 36
1
10. Let G denote a green form and W denote a white form. =
4
Total number of forms = 50 +30
= 80
(a) P(three forms are of the same colour) (c) Among the 9 possible outcomes that both numbers
= P(GGG or WWW) are odd, only 3 of them are favourable outcomes:
= P(GGG) + P(WWW) (1, 5), (3, 3) and (5, 1)
= P(1st G) × P(2nd G | 1st G) × P(3rd G | 1st and 3
= 2nd G) + P(1st W) × P(2nd W | 1st W) ×
=
∴ P(sum is 6 | both are odd) 9
= P(3rd W | 1st and 2nd W)
1
50 49 48 30 29 28 =
= × × + × × 3
80 79 78 80 79 78
91
= 13. (a) P(smoker)
316 = P(male and smoker or female and smoker)
= P(male and smoker) + P(female and smoker)
(b) ∵ There are only two colours of forms. = P(male) × P(smoker | male) +
= P(female) × P(smoker | female)
∴ P(three forms are of different colours) =0
=0.515 ×0.13 +(1 −0.515 ) ×0.07
=0.1009
11. (a) Since there is only 1 key can open the door.
1 =1 −P (smoker )
∴ P(1st trial) = 3
(b) P(non-smoker) =1 −0.1009
(b) P(second trial) =0.8991

= P (1st trial fails ) ×P ( 2nd trial | 1st trial fails ) 14. Let R denote a red ball, G denote a green ball and W
2 1 denote a white ball.
= ×
3 2 Total number of balls = 5 + 3 + 2
1 =10
=
3 (a) P(one red and one white)
= P(RW or WR)
(c) P(last trial) = P(RW) + P(WR)
= P(1st trial fails) × P(2nd trial fails | 1st trial fails) = P(R) × P(W | R) + P(W) × P(R | W)
× 5 2 2 5
= × + ×
= P(last trial | 1st and 2nd trials fail) 10 9 10 9
2 1 1 2
= × × =
3 2 1 9
1
= (b) P(same colour)
3
= P(RR or GG or WW)
= P(RR) + P(GG) + P(WW)
12. By the counting principle, the total number of possible = P(R) × P(R | R) + P(G) × P(G | G) +
outcomes is: 6 × 6 = 36 = P(W) × P(W | W)
(a) There are 5 favourable outcomes for the sum of the
numbers is 6: (1, 5), (2, 4), (3, 3), (4, 2) and (5, 1)

20
15 More about Probability

5 4 3 2 2 1 = P ( prime ) + P ( multiple of 4)
= × + × + ×
10 9 10 9 10 9 2 1
= +
14 5 4
=
45 13
=
20
15. (a) (i) P(true positive result)
= P(AIDS and positive result)
= P(AIDS) × P(positive result) 2. Total number of people = 88 +113 + 78 + 21
= 0.1% × 0.98 = 300
= 0.098 % 78
=
(a) P(disagree) 300
13
=
50

(ii) P(false positive result)

= P(no AIDS and positive result)
= P(no AIDS) × P(positive result)
= (1 – 0.1%) × 0.07
= 6.993 %
(b) P(‘strongly agree’ or ‘agree’)
(b) Percent of blood sample shows positive result = P(‘strongly agree’) + P(‘agree’)
= 0.098 % + 6.993 % 88 113
= +
= 7.091 % 300 300
Percent of blood sample that is false positive 67
=
= 6.993 % 100
∴ P(false positive | positive result)
=
6.993 % 3. Total number of possible outcomes = 52 −6
7.091 % = 46
=0.9862 (cor. to 4 sig. fig.) (a) ∵ All the jack of black suits are removed.
(c) Any reasonable answers. ∴ P(a jack of black suits) =0
(b) There are 2 favourable outcomes: ace of hearts and
ace of diamonds
Revision Exercise 15 (p. 37) 2
=
Level 1 46
∴ P(an ace of red suits)
1. (a) There are 8 favourable outcomes: 2, 3, 5, 7, 11, 13, 1
17 and 19 =
23
8
=
20 (c) There are 10 favourable outcomes: A, 2, 3, …, 10 of
∴ P(prime)
2 clubs
= 10
5 =
∴ P(a club) 46
(b) There are 5 favourable outcomes: 4, 8, 12, 16 and 20 5
=
5 23
=
∴ P(multiple of 4) 20
1 4. P(both are members)
=
4 = P(1st is a member and 2nd is a member)
= P(1st is a member) × P(2nd is a member |
(c) P(prime or multiple of 4) = 1st is a member)

21
Certificate Mathematics in Action Full Solutions 5B

80 79 = P (CCW or CWC or WCC )

= ×
1200 1199 = P (CCW) + P (CWC ) + P ( WCC )
79
= 2 2  2 2  2 2
17 985 = × ×1 −  + ×1 −  × +
3 3  3 3  3 3
 2 2 2
5. (a) P(sum is even)
1 −  × ×
 3 3 3
= P(1st is even and 2nd is even or 1st is odd and
= 2nd is odd) 4
=
= P(1st is even and 2nd is even) + 9
= P(1st is odd and 2nd is odd)
= P(1st is even) × P(2nd is even | 1st is even) + (b) P(all answers wrong)
= P(1st is odd) × P(2nd is odd | 1st is odd) = P ( WWW )
5 4 5 4  2  2  2
= × + × = 1 −  ×1 −  ×1 − 
10 9 10 9  3  3  3
4 1
= =
9 27

(c) P(at least one answer correct)

=1 − P (all answers wrong )
1
=1 −
27
26
=
(b) P(sum is even) 27
= P(both even or both odd)
= P(both even) + P(both odd)
= P(even) × P(even) + P(odd) × P(odd)
5 5 5 5
= × + ×
10 10 10 10 8. (a) P(both late)
1 = P(Vincent late) × P(Andrew late)
=
2 1 1
= ×
3 4
6. (a) P(both defective) 1
=
= P(defective from A) × P(defective from B) 12
16 25
= × (b) P(at least one of them arrives punctually)
800 1000 = 1 – P(both late)
1 1
= =1 −
2000 12
(b) P(both are not defective) 11
=
= P(not defective from A) × P(not defective from B) 12
800 −16 1000 − 25
= × (c) P(only one of them arrives punctually)
800 1000 = P(Vincent late and Andrew punctual or
1911 = Vincent punctual and Andrew late)
=
2000 = P(Vincent late and Andrew punctual) +
= P(Vincent punctual and Andrew late)
= P(Vincent late) × P(Andrew punctual) +
7. Let C denote a correct answer and W denote a wrong = P(Vincent punctual) × P(Andrew late)
(a) P(one answer wrong)

22
15 More about Probability

1  1  1 1
= ×1 −  + 1 −  × 13. G = the number obtained is a prime number
3  4  3 4 G = the number obtained is greater than 3
5 (or any other reasonable answers)
=
12
Level 2
14. By the counting principle, the total number of possible
9. Total number of batteries = 2 + 4 outcomes: 6 × 6 = 36
=6
(a) There are 6 favourable outcomes: (1, 1), (2, 1), (1, 2),
(a) P(1st is used and 2nd is new) (2, 2), (1, 3) and (3, 1)
6
= P(1st is used) ×P ( 2nd is new | 1st is used) =
∴ P(less than 5) 36
2 4 1
= × =
6 5 6
4
= (b) There are 5 favourable outcomes: (2, 6), (6, 2), (3, 5),
15
(5, 3) and (4, 4)
(b) P(both used) 5
∴ P(equal to 8) = 36
= P (1st is used) ×P ( 2nd is used | 1st is used)
(c) P(less than 5 or equal to 8)
2 1 = P (less than 5) + P (equal to 8)
= ×
6 5 1 5
1 = +
= 6 36
15 11
=
36
10. Let H stand for a head and T stand for a tail.
There are 7 possible outcomes for at least one head:
15. (a) P(all of them fail)
HTT, THT, TTH, HHT, HTH, THH and HHH
Among the possible outcomes, there are 3 favourable = P ( Ivy fails) ×P (Grace fails) ×P ( Winky fails)
outcomes: HHT, HTH and THH
3  1  2  5
= 1 − ×1 − ×1 − 
∴ P(exactly two heads | at least one head) = 7  2  5  8
9
=
80

11. For the 1st time the rumour spreads, Alfred can
choose any 40 classmates out of the 40 possible
classmates.
For the 2nd to the 10th times the rumour spreads, the (b) P(at least one of them passes)
student can choose any 39 classmates (excluding Alfred)
=1 − P (all of them fail)
out of the 40 possible classmates.
9
Since every time the rumour spreads are independent =1 −
events. 80
∴ P(still has not returned to Alfred in 10 times) 71
=
40  39 
9
80
= × 
40  40 
= 0.796 (cor. to 3 sig. fig.) 16. (a) P(sum of 2) = P(‘1’ and ‘1’)
= P(‘1’) × P(‘1’)
308 308
12. F = a head is obtained when a coin is tossed or = ×
F = a queen is drawn from a deck of 52 cards 2000 2000
(or any other reasonable answers) = 0.0237 (cor. to 3 sig. fig.)

23
Certificate Mathematics in Action Full Solutions 5B

(b) Number of times of not getting a ‘4’

18. Let W denote a white marble and B denote a black marble.
= 2000 − 458
Total number of marbles = 3 + 2
=1542
P(at least one ‘4’)
=5
= 1 – P(no ‘4’ in two throws) 2
= 1 – P(no ‘4’) × P(no ‘4’) (a) P(first trial) = 5
1542 1542
=1 − × = P ( WB )
2000 2000
=0.406 (cor. to 3 sig. fig.) = P( W) ×P(B | W)

(c) P(a sum of 10 or more) (b) P(second trial) = 3 × 2

= P(‘4’ and ‘6’ or ‘6’ and ‘4’ or ‘5’ and ‘5’ or 5 4
= ‘5’ and ‘6’ or ‘6’ and ‘5’ or ‘6’ and ‘6’) 3
= P(‘4’ and ‘6’) + P(‘6’ and ‘4’ ) + P(‘5’ and ‘5’ ) +
=
10
= P(‘5’ and ‘6’) + P(‘6’ and ‘5’) + P(‘6’ and ‘6’)
(c) P(fourth trial)
458 312 312 458 206 206 = P(WWWB)
= × + × + × + = P(W) × P(W | 1st W) × P(W | 1st and 2nd W) ×
2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000
= P(B | 1st, 2nd and 3rd W)
206 312 312 206 312 312
× + × + × 3 2 1 2
2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 = × × ×
5 4 3 2
= 0.139 (cor. to 3 sig. fig.)
1
=
10
17. Let R denote a red sock, W denote a white sock and B
denote a black sock.
19. (a) P(defective)
Total number of socks = 6 + 4 + 2 = P(defective from box A or defective from box B)
= 12 = P(defective from box A) + P(defective from box B)
(a) P(one red and one black) = P(box A) × P(defective | box A) +
= P ( RB or BR) = P(box B) × P(defective | box B)
1 2 1 6
= P ( RB ) + P ( BR ) = × + ×
2 8 2 14
= P ( R ) ×P ( B | R ) + P ( B) ×P ( R | B)
19
6 2 2 6 =
= × + × 56
12 11 12 11
=
2 (b) Total number of defective bulbs = 2 + 6
11 =8
6
=
∴ P(box B | defective) 8
3
=
4

(b) P(same colour)

= P(RR or WW or BB)
= P(RR) + P(WW) + P(BB) 20. P(defective)
= P(R) + P(R | R) + P(W) × P(W | W) + = P(defective from machine A or
= defective from machine B)
= P(B) × P(B | B)
= P(defective from machine A) +
6 5 4 3 2 1
= × + × + × = P(defective from machine B)
12 11 12 11 12 11 = P(machine A) × P(defective | machine A) +
1 = P(machine B) × P(defective | machine B)
=
3

24
15 More about Probability

=0.6 ×0.02 +0.4 ×0.04 1

=0.028 1
1 8
first term = , common ratio = =
2 1 4
60 °
= 2
21. (a) P(land on sector POQ) 360 ° n −1
1 1 1 
= =  
6 ∴ P(Katherine wins in her nth trial) 2 4 
2 n −1
∠ =60 °×1.5 1 
(b) (i) QOR = 
=90 ° 2 

60 ° +90 ° (c) P(Katherine wins the game)

= = P(wins in her 1st trial or wins in her 2nd trial or …
(ii) P(land on sector POR) 360 °
= or wins in her nth trial or …)
5
= = P(wins in her 1st trial) + P(wins in her 2nd trial) +
12 = … + P(wins in her nth trial) + …
2 n −1
(c) P(one hits sector POQ and one hits sector QOR) 1 1 1 
= + + ... +   + ...
= P(1st hits sector POQ and 2nd hits sector QOR or 2 8 2
= 1st hits sector QOR and 2nd hits sector POQ)
= P(1st hits sector POQ and 2nd hits sector QOR) + 1
= P(1st hits sector QOR and 2nd hits sector POQ) 2
=
60 ° 90 ° 90 ° 60 ° 1
= × + × 1−
360 ° 360 ° 360 ° 360 ° 4
1 2
= =
12 3

22. Let H denote a head and T denote a tail. 23. (a) P(head appears)
=P ( H ) = P(normal coin and head or
(a) (i) P(wins in her 1st trial) 1 = two-headed coin and head)
= = P(normal coin and head) +
2
= P (TTH ) 2 1 1 2
= × + ×
1 1 1 3 2 3 2
(ii) P(wins in her 2nd trial) = 2 × 2 × 2 2
=
1 3
=
8
(b) By using a tree diagram, we have:
(iii) P(wins in her 3rd trial) head
normal coin
= P (TTTTH ) tail
1 1 1 1 1 head
= × × × × normal coin
2 2 2 2 2
tail
1
32
From the tree diagram, there are 4 possible outcomes.
Among the possible outcomes, only 2 are favourable
outcomes.
(b) By using geometric sequence, we have

25
Certificate Mathematics in Action Full Solutions 5B

2 P(both are late)

= = P ( John is late ) ×P ( Mary is late )
1 =0.4 ×0.3
= =0.12
2

(c) (i) There are 2 favourable outcomes of getting two

heads in two trials:
(1) normal coin and head and head;
For (1),
P(the problem is solved)
= 1 – P(Paul and Mary cannot solve the problem)
2 1 1 = 1 – P(Paul cannot solve the problem) ×
= × ×
3 2 2 = P(Mary cannot solve the problem)
1  2  5
= = 1 − 1 −  ×1 − 
6  5  6
For (2), 9
=
1 2 2
= × ×
3 2 2 4. Answer: D
1 Let C denote a correct answer and W denote a wrong
3
∴ P(two heads in two trials) P(only one question is correct)
= P(normal coin and head and head) + = P(CWW or WCW or WWC)
= P(two-headed coin and head and head) = P(CWW) + P(WCW) + P(WWC)
1 1 1  1  1  1
= + = ×1 −  ×1 −  + 1 −  ×
6 3 4  4  4  4
1
= 1  1  1  1 1
2 ×1 −  + 1 −  ×1 −  ×
4  4  4  4 4
(ii) P(two tails in two trials)
= P(normal coin and tail and another normal 27
=
= coin and tail) 64
= P(normal coin) × P(tail) ×
= P(another normal coin | normal coin) × P(tail) 5. Answer: B
2 1 1 1
= × × × Let B denote a son and G denote a daughter.
3 2 2 2
By using a tree diagram, we have:
1
=
12 First child Second child Outcomes
B BB
B
G BG
Multiple Choice Questions (p. 41) B GB
1. Answer: B G
G GG
There are 3 favourable outcomes: 2, 5 and 17
3 From the tree diagram, there are 3 possible outcomes to
=
∴ P(prime number) 6 have a son.
1 Among the possible outcomes, only 1 is a favourable
=
2 outcome.
1
∴ P(two sons | has a son) = 3

26
15 More about Probability

6. Answer: B = 1 – P(less than 5)

= 1 – P((1, 2) or (1, 3) or (2, 1) or (3, 1))
Total number of rotten oranges = 20 +10 = 1 – [P(1, 2) + P(1, 3) + P(2, 1) + P(3, 1)]
= 30 = 1 – [P(1) × P(2 | 1) + P(1) × P(3 | 1) + P(2) × P(1 | 2)
20 +
= = P(3) × P(1 | 3)]
∴ P(comes from box A | rotten orange) 30
2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 
= =1 − × + × + × + × 
3 4 3 4 3 4 3 4 3
2
=
3
P(at least one dart hits the target)
= 1 – P(two darts do not hit the target) 12. Answer: B
= 1 – P(1st dart does not hit the target) × Let B denote a boy and G denote a girl.
= P(2nd dart does not hit the target)
 3  3 Total number of students in the class = 27 +13
= 1 − 1 −  ×1 −  = 40
 5  5
P(same sex)
21 = P(BB or GG)
=
25 = P(BB) + P(GG)
= P(B) × P(B | B) + P(G) × P(G | G)
8. Answer: C 27 26 13 12
= × + ×
P(at least one of them is absent) 40 39 40 39
= 1 – P(all present) 11
=
= 1 – P(Kitty presents) × P(Alice presents) × 20
= P(Alan presents)
 1  1  1
= 1 − 1 −  ×1 −  ×1 −  13. Answer: A
 3  3  3
P(open in at least 3 trials)
19 = 1 – P(open in less than 3 trials)
=
27 = 1 – P(open in the 1st trial or 2nd trial)
= 1 – [P(open in the 1st trial) + P(open in the 2nd trial)]

2
There are 3 possible seats for Tracy after Lily takes a seat. =1 −  + P (fail in the 1st trial) ×P (open in the 2nd trial |
10
Among the possible seats, 2 seats are next to Lily.
2 fail in the 1st trial) ]
∴ P(Tracy sits next to Lily) = 3
 2 8 2
=1 − + × 
 10 10 9 
10. Answer: B 17
Let W denote a white chopstick and B denote a black =1 −
45
chopstick.
28
P(same colour) =
= P(WW or BB) 45
= P(WW) + P(BB)
= P(W) × P(W | W) + P(B) × P(B | B)
2 1 2 1 HKMO (p. 43)
= × + ×
4 3 4 3 1. P(all odd)
1 = P(1st is odd and 2nd is odd and 3rd is odd)
= = P(1st is odd) × P(2nd is odd | 1st is odd) × P(3rd is odd
3
|
= 1st and 2nd are odd)
P(greater than or equal to 5)

27
Certificate Mathematics in Action Full Solutions 5B

5 4 3
= × ×
9 8 7
5
=
42

2. By the counting principle, the total number of possible

outcomes is: 10 ×10 = 100

White ball Favourable black Number of

drawn ball drawn favourable
outcomes
10 1, 2, 3, 4, 5,6, 7, 8, 9 9
9 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 8
8 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 7
7 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 6
6 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 5
5 1, 2, 3, 4 4
4 1, 2, 3 3
3 1, 2 2
2 1 1
1 – 0
Total 45

45
=
∴ P(white ball > black ball) 100
9
=
20

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