1

Workshop on Renewable Energies

November 14-25, 2005
Nadi, Republic of the Fiji Islands
Module 2.4 Module 2.4- -2 2
ENERGY YIELD ASSESSMENT ENERGY YIELD ASSESSMENT
Gerhard J. Gerdes
2
1
-
N
o
v
-
0
5


(
0
0
:
3
1
)
e
7

/

P
P
A

W
o
r
k
s
h
o
p

o
n

R
e
n
e
w
a
b
l
e

E
n
e
r
g
i
e
s
2
Contents Contents
power curve of wind turbine and international
regulations for power curve measurements
using power curve and wind data to determine energy
output of a turbine at measurement site and
measurement height
using flow models to calculate wind and energy for
different sites and height
extension of results to long term time periods
possible errors
2
2
1
-
N
o
v
-
0
5


(
0
0
:
3
1
)
e
7

/

P
P
A

W
o
r
k
s
h
o
p

o
n

R
e
n
e
w
a
b
l
e

E
n
e
r
g
i
e
s
3
Power curve overview Power curve overview
practical power output
curves follow the power
in the wind curve
up to the rated wind
speed
when rated output
power is reached
power curve generally
dependent of mode of
output control (stall
pitch)
rated wind speed (here 13 m/s)
v
rated
or v
nominal
2
1
-
N
o
v
-
0
5


(
0
0
:
3
1
)
e
7

/

P
P
A

W
o
r
k
s
h
o
p

o
n

R
e
n
e
w
a
b
l
e

E
n
e
r
g
i
e
s
4
Rules for power curve and wind Rules for power curve and wind
speed measurements speed measurements
IEC (International Energy Commission) - international
FGW (Frdergesellschaft Wind Energie: Support
Society Wind Energy national German rules (= IEC
with extra conditions)
MEASNET - international (= IEC with extra conditions)
IEA (International Energy Agency) Recommendation
for wind speed measurements (outdated)
generally rules for power measurements (relatively
easy to fulfil) and wind speed measurements (more
difficult)
3
2
1
-
N
o
v
-
0
5


(
0
0
:
3
1
)
e
7

/

P
P
A

W
o
r
k
s
h
o
p

o
n

R
e
n
e
w
a
b
l
e

E
n
e
r
g
i
e
s
5
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
0 5 10 15 20 25
Calculated power curve
Measured power curve
Wind speed at hub height, m/s
E
l
e
c
t
r
i
c
a
l
p
o
w
e
r
,

k
W
Measured power curve and power curve given by manufacturer
Differences in power curves Differences in power curves
2
1
-
N
o
v
-
0
5


(
0
0
:
3
1
)
e
7

/

P
P
A

W
o
r
k
s
h
o
p

o
n

R
e
n
e
w
a
b
l
e

E
n
e
r
g
i
e
s
6
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
0 5 10 15 20
Wind Speed [m/s]
P
o
w
e
r

[
k
W
]
Std.-Conditions
1.1809 kg/m3
1.1356 kg/m3
1.089 kg/m3
Air density effect on power curves Air density effect on power curves - -
stall stall
4
2
1
-
N
o
v
-
0
5


(
0
0
:
3
1
)
e
7

/

P
P
A

W
o
r
k
s
h
o
p

o
n

R
e
n
e
w
a
b
l
e

E
n
e
r
g
i
e
s
7
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
0 5 10 15 20
Wind Speed [m/s]
P
o
w
e
r

[
k
W
]
Std.-Conditions
1.1809 kg/m3
1.1356 kg/m3
1.089 kg/m3
Air density effect on power curves Air density effect on power curves - -
pitch pitch
2
1
-
N
o
v
-
0
5


(
0
0
:
3
1
)
e
7

/

P
P
A

W
o
r
k
s
h
o
p

o
n

R
e
n
e
w
a
b
l
e

E
n
e
r
g
i
e
s
8
Calculation of wind turbine output Calculation of wind turbine output
two important prerequisites:
thoroughly measured and evaluated wind data for the
site(s) in question, and
an exactly measured power curve, according to
international standards, so that turbines on the world
market can be compared
but still
for both power curve and wind data evaluation error
margins exist, which make an absolute certainty for
output estimation impossible
in addition annual variations of wind resource for a
given region can be substantial (+/- 20 % normal, up to
40 % )
5
2
1
-
N
o
v
-
0
5


(
0
0
:
3
1
)
e
7

/

P
P
A

W
o
r
k
s
h
o
p

o
n

R
e
n
e
w
a
b
l
e

E
n
e
r
g
i
e
s
9
Power output estimation Power output estimation
needed:
power curve of wind turbine (generally in 1 m/s wind
classes)
wind speed frequency of the site (also in 1 m/s wind
classes)
simple multiplication
in practice, spreadsheet calculation is easy
AEP = Annual Energy Production
E
i
= Energy per wind speed class i
f
i
= Frequency of wind speed class i
P
i
= Power WTG in a wind speed class i
i i i
P f E AEP

= =
2
1
-
N
o
v
-
0
5


(
0
0
:
3
1
)
e
7

/

P
P
A

W
o
r
k
s
h
o
p

o
n

R
e
n
e
w
a
b
l
e

E
n
e
r
g
i
e
s
10
Typical power curve 300 kW (table) Typical power curve 300 kW (table)
v [m/s] Power Output (elec.) Power Coefficient
Wind Class [kW] cp [ - ]
1 0 0.00
2 0 0.00
3 4 0.32
4 10 0.36
5 22 0.40
6 38 0.41
7 62 0.42
8 93 0.42
9 133 0.42
10 182 0.42
11 231 0.40
12 269 0.36
13 291 0.31
14 300 0.25
15 305 0.21
16 305 0.17
17 305 0.14
18 305 0.12
19 305 0.10
20 305 0.09
21 305 0.08
22 305 0.07
23 305 0.06
24 305 0.05
25 305 0.05
c
p,max
= 42 %
rated wind speed
v
rated
= 13.5 m/s
wind class 1
from 0 to 1 m/s;
wind class 2
from 1 to 2 m/s,
etc.
also called bins
6
2
1
-
N
o
v
-
0
5


(
0
0
:
3
1
)
e
7

/

P
P
A

W
o
r
k
s
h
o
p

o
n

R
e
n
e
w
a
b
l
e

E
n
e
r
g
i
e
s
11
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25
Wind speed [m/s]
F
r
e
q
u
e
n
c
y

[
h
/
y
e
a
r
]Total Hours per Year 8760h/a
Wind speed frequency distribution Wind speed frequency distribution
Weibull parameters:
k = 2, A = 6.7 m/s
equals v
avg
= 6.0 m/s
v
avg =
average wind speed
2
1
-
N
o
v
-
0
5


(
0
0
:
3
1
)
e
7

/

P
P
A

W
o
r
k
s
h
o
p

o
n

R
e
n
e
w
a
b
l
e

E
n
e
r
g
i
e
s
12
Typical power curve 300 kW Typical power curve 300 kW
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0 5 10 15 20
Wind Speed [m/s]
P
o
w
e
r

[
k
W
]
7
2
1
-
N
o
v
-
0
5


(
0
0
:
3
1
)
e
7

/

P
P
A

W
o
r
k
s
h
o
p

o
n

R
e
n
e
w
a
b
l
e

E
n
e
r
g
i
e
s
13
Energy production per wind speed Energy production per wind speed
bin bin
0
10'000
20'000
30'000
40'000
50'000
60'000
70'000
80'000
90'000
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25
Wind speed [m/s]
E
n
e
r
g
y

[
k
W
h
]
Annual Energy Yield
578355kWh/a
2
1
-
N
o
v
-
0
5


(
0
0
:
3
1
)
e
7

/

P
P
A

W
o
r
k
s
h
o
p

o
n

R
e
n
e
w
a
b
l
e

E
n
e
r
g
i
e
s
14
Calculation of annual energy yield Calculation of annual energy yield
based on measurement based on measurement
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0 5 10 15 20
Wind Speed [m/s]
P
o
w
e
r

[
k
W
]
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25
Wind speed [m/s]
F
r
e
q
u
e
n
c
y

[
h
/
y
e
a
r
]
0
10'000
20'000
30'000
40'000
50'000
60'000
70'000
80'000
90'000
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25
Wind speed [m/s]
E
n
e
r
g
y

[
k
W
h
]
Wind Wind Power frequency Energy
[m/s] [mph] [kW] [h/year] [kWh/year]
1 2,2 0,0 372,0 0,0
2 4,5 0,0 702,0 0,0
3 6,7 3,7 941,0 3481,7
4 8,9 10,0 1077,0 10770,0
5 11,2 21,6 1107,0 23911,2
6 13,4 38,3 1046,0 40061,8
7 15,7 62,4 920,5 57439,2
8 17,9 93,1 759,5 70709,5
9 20,1 132,6 592,0 78499,2
10 22,4 181,8 435,0 79083,0
11 24,6 230,5 303,5 69956,8
12 26,8 269,3 201,5 54264,0
13 29,1 290,5 127,5 37038,8
14 31,3 300,0 77,5 23250,0
15 33,6 305,0 45,0 13725,0
16 35,8 305,0 25,0 7625,0
17 38,0 305,0 15,0 4575,0
18 40,3 305,0 7,0 2135,0
19 42,5 305,0 3,0 915,0
20 44,7 305,0 1,8 549,0
21 47,0 305,0 0,8 244,0
22 49,2 305,0 0,3 91,5
23 51,4 305,0 0,1 30,5
24 53,7 305,0 0,0 0,0
25 55,9 305,0 0,0 0,0
Total 8760 h 578355 kWh
8
2
1
-
N
o
v
-
0
5


(
0
0
:
3
1
)
e
7

/

P
P
A

W
o
r
k
s
h
o
p

o
n

R
e
n
e
w
a
b
l
e

E
n
e
r
g
i
e
s
15
Further calculations are needed Further calculations are needed
From measurement height to turbine hub height
From measurement site to different wind turbine sites
for a planned wind farm
From one year measurement period to long-term
estimation
2
1
-
N
o
v
-
0
5


(
0
0
:
3
1
)
e
7

/

P
P
A

W
o
r
k
s
h
o
p

o
n

R
e
n
e
w
a
b
l
e

E
n
e
r
g
i
e
s
16
Measurement and long Measurement and long- -term term
behaviour of wind speed behaviour of wind speed
Wind speed is typically measured on potential wind
turbine sites for a limited period of time short-term
measurement (e.g. 1 year)
For the purpose of energy yield assessment this
has to be done with high accuracy.
To estimate energy production not only for the time of
the measurement but for a longer time, information on
the long-term behaviour of the wind must be used:
Long-term correction has to be performed
The quality of this long-term data can be lower than
for the short-term measurement
The quality of the long-term measurement should
be stable in time
9
2
1
-
N
o
v
-
0
5


(
0
0
:
3
1
)
e
7

/

P
P
A

W
o
r
k
s
h
o
p

o
n

R
e
n
e
w
a
b
l
e

E
n
e
r
g
i
e
s
17
Measurement concept including Measurement concept including
long term comparison long term comparison
2
1
-
N
o
v
-
0
5


(
0
0
:
3
1
)
e
7

/

P
P
A

W
o
r
k
s
h
o
p

o
n

R
e
n
e
w
a
b
l
e

E
n
e
r
g
i
e
s
18
Long term variation of the annual Long term variation of the annual
average wind speed average wind speed
45 years of data
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999
0 m/s
2 m/s
4 m/s
6 m/s
8 m/s
10 m/s
12 m/s
14 m/s
Normalised Average Production
vwind_hub-height
10 years sliding average (production)
10
2
1
-
N
o
v
-
0
5


(
0
0
:
3
1
)
e
7

/

P
P
A

W
o
r
k
s
h
o
p

o
n

R
e
n
e
w
a
b
l
e

E
n
e
r
g
i
e
s
19
Measure
Reference-Site:
Available long term data +
short term data (time series)
Reference-Site:
Available long term data +
short term data (time series)
Prognosis-Site:
Average time compatibel to
referenz-site
Prognosis-Site:
Average time compatibel to
referenz-site
Correlation
(Regression) of twelve
sectors each 30 degree
Correlation
(Regression) of twelve
sectors each 30 degree
Correlate
Prediction of long term
windspeed distribution at
prognosis-site
Prediction of long term
windspeed distribution at
prognosis-site
Predict
Long Term Correlation with Long Term Correlation with
Measurement Measurement - - Correlation Correlation - -
Prediction (MCP) Prediction (MCP) - - Method Method
2
1
-
N
o
v
-
0
5


(
0
0
:
3
1
)
e
7

/

P
P
A

W
o
r
k
s
h
o
p

o
n

R
e
n
e
w
a
b
l
e

E
n
e
r
g
i
e
s
20
Extended energy yield assessment Extended energy yield assessment
for wind farms for wind farms
The evaluation of a wind speed measurement results in
an energy yield, which is valid for the measurement
period and the measurement height only
To transfer the measurement to other sites in a wind
farm area and to different heights, a micrositing model
is required
To extend the wind speed evaluation results to a longer
time period than the measurement period, a long term
correlation method is required
11
2
1
-
N
o
v
-
0
5


(
0
0
:
3
1
)
e
7

/

P
P
A

W
o
r
k
s
h
o
p

o
n

R
e
n
e
w
a
b
l
e

E
n
e
r
g
i
e
s
21
Transfer to different sites and height Transfer to different sites and height
transfer to different height (h1 to h2)
transfer to different locations
h1
h2
measurement site
2
1
-
N
o
v
-
0
5


(
0
0
:
3
1
)
e
7

/

P
P
A

W
o
r
k
s
h
o
p

o
n

R
e
n
e
w
a
b
l
e

E
n
e
r
g
i
e
s
22
Methods of energy yield assessment Methods of energy yield assessment
in situ wind
measurements
in situ wind
measurements
energy yield prediction
energy yield prediction
meteorological
long term data
meteorological
long term data
long term correlation
long term correlation
micro - siting - model
micro - siting - model
12
2
1
-
N
o
v
-
0
5


(
0
0
:
3
1
)
e
7

/

P
P
A

W
o
r
k
s
h
o
p

o
n

R
e
n
e
w
a
b
l
e

E
n
e
r
g
i
e
s
23
Wind atlas method Wind atlas method resulting in resulting in
energy yield energy yield
Roughness description
Roughness description
Obstacle description
Obstacle description
Orography description
Orography description
Meteorological data
Meteorological data
Power curve
Power curve
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
0 5 10 15 20
Wind Speed [m/s]
P
o
w
e
r [k
W
]
Annual Energy Production
AEP
Annual Energy Production
AEP
calculation of expected
annual energy yield
calculation of expected
annual energy yield
2
1
-
N
o
v
-
0
5


(
0
0
:
3
1
)
e
7

/

P
P
A

W
o
r
k
s
h
o
p

o
n

R
e
n
e
w
a
b
l
e

E
n
e
r
g
i
e
s
24
Influence of wind speed deviations Influence of wind speed deviations
on energy production on energy production
A small deviation of the average wind speed
around 5 m/s results in large deviation of
annual energy production (AEP):
wind speed deviation AEP deviation
v
avg
= 5 m/s
10 % 20 %
20 % 45 %
v
avg =
average wind speed
13
2
1
-
N
o
v
-
0
5


(
0
0
:
3
1
)
e
7

/

P
P
A

W
o
r
k
s
h
o
p

o
n

R
e
n
e
w
a
b
l
e

E
n
e
r
g
i
e
s
25
Sources of possible uncertainties Sources of possible uncertainties
Meteorological input data:
Gaps in the recorded data
Poor or not calibrated anemometer
Damaged or malfunctioning sensors
Change of obstacles in the vicinity of the met mast
(trees, buildings, etc.)
Calculation methods:
Not suitable for complex terrain
Input of roughness, obstacles and orography
2
1
-
N
o
v
-
0
5


(
0
0
:
3
1
)
e
7

/

P
P
A

W
o
r
k
s
h
o
p

o
n

R
e
n
e
w
a
b
l
e

E
n
e
r
g
i
e
s
26
Sources of possible uncertainties Sources of possible uncertainties
Power curve:
Theoretical curve
Inaccuracy of the measurements
Losses:
Wind farm efficiency
Availability of the turbines
Electrical losses / efficiencies
14
2
1
-
N
o
v
-
0
5


(
0
0
:
3
1
)
e
7

/

P
P
A

W
o
r
k
s
h
o
p

o
n

R
e
n
e
w
a
b
l
e

E
n
e
r
g
i
e
s
27
How to perform an energy yield How to perform an energy yield
assessment 1 assessment 1
select site for WT(s) installation
access (roads, bridges, narrow through roads
grid (distance, voltage, capacity)
general infrastructure (lorries and cranes)
perform a wind speed measurement
evaluate data in generating wind speed distribution
get a measured, certified WT power curve
calculate energy yield from the distribution, if met-mast
is located at the proposed turbine site
otherwise a wind turbine siting model has to be used
retrieve long-term wind data from a nearby met-station
best is hourly data over 10 years or more
otherwise: two wind rose tables (e.g. wind frequency in
25 wind speed classes versus 12 wind direction sectors)
first table for short-term measurement duration
second table for long-term measurement duration
2
1
-
N
o
v
-
0
5


(
0
0
:
3
1
)
e
7

/

P
P
A

W
o
r
k
s
h
o
p

o
n

R
e
n
e
w
a
b
l
e

E
n
e
r
g
i
e
s
28
How to perform an energy yield How to perform an energy yield
assessment 2 assessment 2
inspect long-term measurement-station
take with you detailed map, compass, camera and GPS,
if available
determine exact location by means of GPS or detailed
map
make picture from met-mast
make picture 360 around the met-mast (for landscape
description), clearly identify North direction
ask for height of tower or estimate
make a sketch of all obstacles in the neighbourhood
(estimate distance, angle and height) indicate kind
(bush, tree, building)
perform long term correction to gain long-term energy
yield
GPS = geographical positioning system
15
2
1
-
N
o
v
-
0
5


(
0
0
:
3
1
)
e
7

/

P
P
A

W
o
r
k
s
h
o
p

o
n

R
e
n
e
w
a
b
l
e

E
n
e
r
g
i
e
s
29
Wind speed data evaluation software:
www.ammonit.de
www.nrgsystems.com
General information on wind energy:
www.windpower.dk