I need help with a probability question: You have three bags.

Bag 1 contains two red balls and 5

green balls. Bag 2 contains 5 red balls and 3 green balls. Bag three contains a red ball and a
green ball. You roll a fair six sided die and pick a ball out of Bag 1 if the die lands on 1. You pick
a ball out of Bag
2 if the die lands on 2, 3, or 4. You pick a ball out of Bag 3 if the die lands on 5 or 6. What is the
probability that you pick a red ball?
Probability of a R ball from bag 1 is 2/7
Probability of a R ball from bag 2 is 5/8
Probability of a R ball from bag 3 is 1/2

(1/6 * 2/7)+(3/6 * 5/8)+(2/6 * 1/2)
=59/112 the probability that you pick a red ball.
.



1) A box contains 29 screws, of which 5 are defective. If you select 10 screws at random (without putting each one back after
selecting it), what is the probability that you select exactly two defective screws?

2) Marty is planning to kill his grandfather so he can claim his inheritance a bit early. His grandfather likes the desserts at a bakery
where Marty works. Marty is able to secretly put rat poison in the chocolate cake and cyanide in the fruit cake. The rat poison is fatal
52% of the time, and cyanide is fatal 86% of the time.
Marty's grandfather selects chocolate cake 50% of the time, fruit cake 35% of the time, and something else the rest of the time.
What is the probability that Marty's grandfather dies?

3) We repeatedly draw a card randomly from a standard deck. If it is a diamond, we put it back; otherwise, we leave it out. What is
the probability that we get exactly one diamond in the first three draws?

4) What is the probability that you get a PIN with no nines? Note: A PIN cannot begin with a '0'

5) An cup contains 11 blue chips and 7 orange chips. Three chips are drawn randomly from the urn without replacement.
Let X be the number of blue chips. Find the probability mass function for X.

6) A certain neighborhood has 12 families. Five of the families have no pets, three of them have one pet, two of them have two pets,
one has three pets, and one has six pets.
A family is selected at random. Find (a) the expected number of pets and (b) the standard deviation of the number of pets.

7) A cold medication has been found to be effective on 90% of those who take it. In a sample of 20 people with colds who are given
the medication, let Z be the number of people for whom the medication is effective.
Find E(Z) and Var(Z).
1)
10 screws out of 29 screws may be selected in 29C10 = 20 030 010 ways.
2 defective screws out of 10 may be selected in 10C2 = 45 ways
8 non-defective screws out of 19 non-defective screws may be selected in 19C8 = 75,582 ways

P( exactly two defective screws) = (10C2) (19C8) / (29C10) = (45)(75,582) / 20 030 010 = 0.1698

2)
D = death
R = rat poison
C = cyanide
P(D/R) = 0.52
P(D/C) = 0.86

P(D) = P(R) P(D/R) + P(C) P(D/C)
P(D) = (0.50)(0.52) + (0.35)(0.86) = 0.5610

3)
D= diamond
D' = not a diamond

P( one diamond in three draws) = P(DD'D' )+ P(D'DD') + P( D'D'D)
P(DD'D') = (13/52)(39/52)(38/51) = 0.1397
P(D'DD') = (39/52) (13/51) (38/51) = 0.1424
P(D'D'D) = (39/52)(38/51)(13/50) = 0.1453

ADD:
0.1397 + 0.1424 + 0.1453 = 0.4274

5)
x = number of blue chips
p = probability
P(x=0) :
3 chips out of 18 chips may be drawn in 18C3 = 816
If 0 are blue and 3 are orange , this can be selected in (11C0)(7C3) = (1)(35) ways
P(x=0) = (1)(35)/816 = 0.04289

P(x=1):
If 1 is blue and 2 are orange , this can be selected in (11C1)(7C2) = (11)(21) ways
P(x=1) = (11)(21) /816 = 0.28309

P(x=2):
If 2 are blue and 1 is orange , this can be selected in (11C2)(7C1) = (55)(7) ways
P(x=2) = (55)(7) /816 = 0.47181

P(x=3):
If 3 are blue and 0 is orange , this can be selected in (11C3)(7C0) = (165)(1) ways
P(x=3) = (165)(1) /816 = 0.20221

Probability mass function for X.
x p(x)
0 0.04289
1 0.28309
2 0.47181
3 0.20221

6)
#of pets prob
0 5/12
1 3/12
2 2/12
3 1/12
6 1/12

E(x) = [ (0)(5/12)+(1)(3/12)+(2)(2/12)+(3)(1/12)+... =3.83 pets

E(x^2) = [ (0)^2(5/12)+(1)^2(3/12)+(2)^2(2/12)+(3)^... = 19.6667
Var(x) = E(x^2) - [E(x)]^2
Var(x) = 19.6667 - (3.83)^2 = 4.9978
Standard deviation = sqrt (Variance) = sqrt(4.9978) = 2.2356

7)
p = probability that the medication is effective = 0.90
n = number of people who are given the medication

This is binomial distribution
E(Z) = np = (20)(0.90) = 18
V(Z) = np(1-p) = 20(0.9)(0.1) = 1.8