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Mark Cañizares
[MAFPF1] performance in 2008
Head of Equities
Manulife Vietnam Fund Management Co. Ltd.
Equity market outlook for 2009
27 March 2009
2 27 March 2009
1
General Weakness Globally in 2008 VN Market in 2008
VN Index dropped 66%
77% down from the peak in March 16/07
Market capitalization fell to USD 10 Bil
Market cap to GDP at 10%, Asia’s smallest
Liquidity conditions worsened
Daily Value Traded dropped to USD 25 Mil by 4Q
2008 Performance in USD (USD 65 Mil in 1Q08)
MSCI Asia Ex-Japan : -53.31%
US S&P 500 : -36.91%
UK FTSE 100 : -49.43% Average daily value turnover CY08: USD 39 Mil
MSCI Asia Ex-Japan: -54%
Japan Nikkei 225 : -27.53%
(CY07: 61 Mil USD)
7-N ov
2 1-N ov
6-Jun
20-Jun
4 -Ja n
18-Ja n
1-Au g
15-Au g
29-Au g
10 -O ct
24 -O ct
14-M ar
28-M ar
11-A pr
25-A pr
9-M a y
23-M a y
5-De c
19-De c
1-Feb
15-Feb
29-Feb
12-S ep
26-S ep
Source: Bloomberg
* HoSE and HaSTC, USD Millions
2
MAFPF1 Performance Summary
MAFPF1 NAV movement vs. VN Index
1.2
0.8
0.6
10/5/2007
11/5/2007
12/5/2007
1/5/2008
2/5/2008
3/5/2008
4/5/2008
5/5/2008
6/5/2008
7/5/2008
8/5/2008
9/5/2008
10/5/2008
11/5/2008
12/5/2008
1/5/2009
2/5/2009
Source: Bloomberg, MVFM data
35
Top 5 Holdings Performance in 2008
30
Rev Growth NI Growth ROE P/E Price Perf
25 MFC
VNM 23.5% 27.6% 27.85% 12 -48%
20 VN Index
15
VSH 30.7% 44.4% 17.81% 10 -36%
10 DHG 19.2% 6.9% 19.36% 15 -48%
5 DPM 71.4% 3.7% 30.32% 10 -51%
0 PVD 35.8% 62.1% 46.30% 12 -29%
C a s h/F ix e d Inte r es t
C on s u m e r G o o ds
T e le c o m m u n ic a tio ns
H e a lth C a re
O il & G as
F in an c ia ls
In d u s tr ia ls
U tilities
B a s ic M ate r ia ls
T e c h no lo gy
Key Qualities:
Earnings defensive
Key Portfolio Attributes
Source: Bloomberg, MVFM data as of Dec 31/2008
Majority of earnings stream from core businesses
Defensive Stable growth profile
Minimal exposure to financials
3
Key sectors/Thematics in 2008
Oil, steel
Invested in the first half to take advantage of
high oil prices and reduced exposure going into
4Q as price corrections set in
4
MAFPF1: Still positioned to take
Valuations: Pointing to an upside
advantage of the recovery
At least a 15% DCF upside from current Economy to remain robust
levels One of the four countries in Asia to have positive
Despite a Cost of Equity assumption of 18% GDP growth in 2009*
Economic growth underpinned by Industrialization
P/E multiples have collapsed to 5x-10x WTO membership to continue increasing
Trailing VN Index PE is 9.8x integration with global economy
Forward 2009 PE: 11.5x*, at par with most SEA Demographics remain very favorable
markets Domestic consumption remains robust
5
MAFPF1 Month-to-date return
Manulife Progressive
Fund
Most Innovative
Product (Vietnam)
Source: Bloomberg
Attribution of ex-cash returns from the period Feb 27/09 – March 25/09
The information contained herein is for background purposes only, has not
been verified and is subject to amendment, revision and updating. No
representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness,
accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein and no
reliance should be placed upon it.
6
Comparative 2008 NAV performance
amongst equity funds MAFPF1 2008 Portfolio Holdings
Fund Name (Reuters Code) 2008 NAV performance (%) Positions as of December 31, 2008
Vietnam Emerging Equity Fund (LCFR03) -70.7 Ticker Name Ticker Name
PXP Vietnam Fund (LCFR03) -70.5 ACB Asia Commercial Bank IMP Imexpharm Pharmaceutical Jsc
Vietnam Enterprise Inv'ts Ltd (LCFR03) -61.9 HDC Ba Ria - Vung Tau House Deve KDC Kinhdo Corp
Vietnam Growth Fund (LCFR03) -61.4
ABT Bentre Aqua Product Import A PVD Petrovietnam Drilling And We
JF Vietnam Opportunities Fund -61.3
BMC Binh Dinh Minerals Jsc DPM Petrovietnam Fert & Chemical
SC5 Construction Jsc No 5 PPC Pha Lai Thermal Power Jsc
Vietnam Holding (VNHq.L) -60.6
FPT Fpt Corp REE Refrigeration Electrical Eng
Blackhorse Enhanced Vietnam Inc -59.9
ACL Cuulong Fish Jsc STB Saigon Thuong Tin Commercial
Vietnam Dragon Fund (LCFR03) -59.8
DPR Dong Phu Rubber Jsc SZL Sonadezi Long Thanh Sharehol
Vietnam Lotus Fund (LCFR03) -59.5
PVC Drilling Mud Jsc ITA Tan Tao Investment Industry
DWS Vietnam Fund (LCFR03) -53.8
GMD Gemadept Corp TDH Thu Duc Housing Development
Indochina Capital Vietnam Holdings (IDCH.L) -52.8 DHG Dhg Pharmaceutical Jsc TAC Tuong An Vegetable Oil Jsc
Manulife Progressive Fund (MAFPF1.HM)* -52.0 CII Hcm City Infrastructure Inv VCB Vietcombank
VinaCapital Vietnam Opportunity Fund Ltd (VOF.L) -46.7 HBC Hoa Binh Construction And Re VNM Viet Nam Dairy Products Jsc
Vietnam Emerging Market Fund -44.2 HRC Hoa Binh Rubber Jsc VSH Vinh Son - Song Hinh Hydropo
Vietnam Azalea Fund -41.5 HPG Hoa Phat Group Jsc
Vietnam Equity Holding (/3MS.DE) -27.4 Source: MVFM
Source: Bloomberg; LCF Rothschild Emerging Market Funds Research Weekly Parity Sheet, Mar16/09