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Model Portfolio Monthly Update: July 31, 2014
There are limitations inherent in our theoretical model results, particularly with the fact that such results do not represent actual trading and they may not reflect the impact material economic and market factors might have had on our decision making if we were actually managing client money. Please see additional disclaimers and disclosures at the back of this report.
We highlight stocks that demonstrate solid growth at a reasonable price (GARP). Stocks selected for our model portfolio strategies all rank highly for the following metrics, with an emphasis on proxies for cash flow growth and ROIC:
• Relative Value
• Operating Momentum
• Analyst Revision Momentum
• Fundamental Quality
Page 2 contains rebalancing actions for our long-only model portfolio.
Page 3 contains rebalancing actions for our short-only model portfolio.
Target and stop prices, as well as updated return data, to be provided in our daily reports that will follow.
Model Portfolio Monthly Update: July 31, 2014
There are limitations inherent in our theoretical model results, particularly with the fact that such results do not represent actual trading and they may not reflect the impact material economic and market factors might have had on our decision making if we were actually managing client money. Please see additional disclaimers and disclosures at the back of this report.
We highlight stocks that demonstrate solid growth at a reasonable price (GARP). Stocks selected for our model portfolio strategies all rank highly for the following metrics, with an emphasis on proxies for cash flow growth and ROIC:
• Relative Value
• Operating Momentum
• Analyst Revision Momentum
• Fundamental Quality
Page 2 contains rebalancing actions for our long-only model portfolio.
Page 3 contains rebalancing actions for our short-only model portfolio.
Target and stop prices, as well as updated return data, to be provided in our daily reports that will follow.
Model Portfolio Monthly Update: July 31, 2014
There are limitations inherent in our theoretical model results, particularly with the fact that such results do not represent actual trading and they may not reflect the impact material economic and market factors might have had on our decision making if we were actually managing client money. Please see additional disclaimers and disclosures at the back of this report.
We highlight stocks that demonstrate solid growth at a reasonable price (GARP). Stocks selected for our model portfolio strategies all rank highly for the following metrics, with an emphasis on proxies for cash flow growth and ROIC:
• Relative Value
• Operating Momentum
• Analyst Revision Momentum
• Fundamental Quality
Page 2 contains rebalancing actions for our long-only model portfolio.
Page 3 contains rebalancing actions for our short-only model portfolio.
Target and stop prices, as well as updated return data, to be provided in our daily reports that will follow.
J. Stephen Castellano Page 1 steve@ascenderellc.com
Ascendere Associates LLC Innovative Long/Short Equity Research
Model Portfolio Monthly Update: July 31, 2014 There are limitations inherent in our theoretical model results, particularly with the fact that such results do not represent actual trading and they may not reflect the impact material economic and market factors might have had on our decision making if we were actually managing client money. Please see additional disclaimers and disclosures at the back of this report.
We highlight stocks that demonstrate solid growth at a reasonable price (GARP). Stocks selected for our model portfolio strategies all rank highly for the following metrics, with an emphasis on proxies for cash flow growth and ROIC:
Relative Value Operating Momentum Analyst Revision Momentum Fundamental Quality
Page 2 contains rebalancing actions for our long-only model portfolio.
Page 3 contains rebalancing actions for our short-only model portfolio.
Target and stop prices, as well as updated return data, to be provided in our daily reports that will follow.
Ascendere Associates LLC July 31, 2014 J. Stephen Castellano Page 2 steve@ascenderellc.com
Long Model Portfolio -- Rebalancing Actions
ALG and MMM look particularly attractive as long ideas.
7/31/2014 Rebalancing Core and Opportunistic Long Portfolio: 24 stocks in the model portfolio = 4.17% weight per position Close Position Hold/Rebalance Open Position Magna International Inc. MGA Foot Locker, Inc. FL GameStop Corp. GME Cablevision Systems CorporationCVC Pilgrim's Pride Corporation PPC Omnicom Group Inc. OMC Industrias Bachoco S.A.B. de C.V. IBA Affiliated Managers Group Inc. AMG Schlumberger Limited SLB Suncor Energy Inc. SU Gilead Sciences Inc. GILD The Blackstone Group L.P. BX Cosan Ltd. CZZ The Sherwin-Williams CompanySHW Ameriprise Financial, Inc. AMP Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ AllianceBernstein Holding L.P. AB Cimarex Energy Co. XEC SEI Investments Co. SEIC FMC Technologies, Inc. FTI HEALTHSOUTH Corp. HLS Old Republic International Corporation ORI Biogen Idec Inc. BIIB Sun Life Financial Inc. SLF Align Technology Inc. ALGN Progressive Corp. PGR VCA Inc. WOOF PAREXEL International Corporation PRXL Allergan Inc. AGN Universal Health Services Inc. UHS Trinity Industries Inc. TRN Southwest Airlines Co. LUV Robert Half International Inc. RHI Snap-on Incorporated SNA ManpowerGroup Inc. MAN SanDisk Corp. SNDK Con-way Inc. CNW Microchip Technology Inc. MCHP 3M Company MMM Paychex, Inc. PAYX Source: Ascendere Associates LLC Skyworks Solutions Inc. SWKS Ascendere Associates LLC July 31, 2014 J. Stephen Castellano Page 3 steve@ascenderellc.com Short Model Portfolio -- Rebalancing Actions When the market anticipates an improving economy from low price levels, low-quality stocks will at times out-perform high-quality stocks as the expected improvements in fundamentals are discounted from a relatively more depressed price level.
The only stocks that stand out as short ideas in the list below are SHLD, DAR, ETN and CRH. Other companies are likely to post significant increases within 12 months despite near-term pressure to earnings revisions and currently high multiples.
7/31/2014 Rebalancing Core and Opportunistic Short Portfolio: 16 stocks in the model portfolio = 6.25% weight per position Close Position Hold/Rebalance Open Short Sale Jarden Corp. JAH Sears Holdings Corporation SHLD General Motors Company GM Carnival Corporation CCL Darling Ingredients Inc. DAR Coty Inc. COTY Golar LNG Ltd. GLNG Allscripts Healthcare Solutions, Inc. MDRX ING Groep N.V. ING Deutsche Bank AG DB SunEdison, Inc. SUNE Cubist Pharmaceuticals Inc. CBST Qiagen NV QGEN Carpenter Technology Corp. CRS Cepheid CPHD MannKind Corp. MNKD Eaton Corporation plc ETN FEI Company FEIC CoreLogic, Inc. CLGX JDS Uniphase Corporation JDSU Belden Inc. BDC Air Products & Chemicals Inc. APD Yahoo! Inc. YHOO Barrick Gold Corporation ABX CRH plc CRH Allegheny Technologies Inc. ATI Source: Ascendere Associates LLC Ascendere Associates LLC July 31, 2014 J. Stephen Castellano Page 4 steve@ascenderellc.com
Return Data
Core & Opportunistic Long Model MTD Theoretical Longs Stopped Out on 8/4/2011 close for a -12.33% loss 6/30/2014 to 7/31/2014 Target/ Date+1 Sector Company Ticker 6/30/2014 7/31/2014 Performance Stop Date Sell Price Return Health Care Universal Health Services Inc. UHS 95.76 106.60 11.32% 7/28/2014 109.04 $ 13.87% Health Care Gilead Sciences Inc. GILD 82.91 91.55 10.42% 7/29/2014 93.79 $ 13.12% Consumer Discretionary Cablevision Systems Corp. CVC 17.65 19.22 8.90% 7/24/2014 18.95 $ 7.37% Industrials Southwest Airlines Co. LUV 26.86 28.28 5.29% Financials Sun Life Financial Inc. SLF 36.71 38.13 3.87% 7/30/2014 38.13 $ 3.87% Consumer Staples Pilgrim's Pride Corporation PPC 27.36 27.96 2.19% 7/22/2014 31.49 $ 15.10% Consumer Discretionary Snap-on Inc. SNA 118.52 120.20 1.42% Health Care Parexel International Corp. PRXL 52.84 53.56 1.36% Consumer Discretionary Magna International, Inc. MGA 107.75 107.40 -0.32% Consumer Discretionary Sherwin-Williams Co. SHW 206.91 206.23 -0.33% Energy FMC Technologies, Inc. FTI 61.07 60.80 -0.44% Consumer Staples Industrias Bachoco S.A.B. de C.V. IBA 53.77 53.14 -1.17% Financials Affiliated Managers Group Inc. AMG 205.40 199.25 -2.99% Energy Cimarex Energy Co. XEC 143.46 139.02 -3.09% Energy Suncor Energy Inc. SU 42.63 41.07 -3.66% Energy Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ 45.91 43.60 -5.03% Consumer Discretionary Foot Locker Inc. FL 50.72 47.53 -6.29% Financials Progressive Corp. PGR 25.36 23.44 -7.57% Information Technology Microchip Technology Inc. MCHP 48.81 45.02 -7.76% Consumer Staples Cosan Ltd. CZZ 13.56 12.07 -10.99% Information Technology SanDisk Corp. SNDK 104.43 91.71 -12.18% Financials Old Republic International Corp. ORI 16.54 14.39 -13.00% Ascendere Associates LLC July 31, 2014 J. Stephen Castellano Page 5 steve@ascenderellc.com
Core & Opportunistic Short Model MTD Theoretical shorts hit target 8/4/2011 for 14.84% gain 6/30/2014 to 7/31/2014 Target/ Date+1 Sector Company Ticker 6/30/2014 7/31/2014 Performance Stop Date Sell Price Return Health Care MannKind Corp. MNKD 10.96 8.36 -23.72% 7/17/2014 9.80 $ -10.58% Information Technology FEI Co. FEIC 90.73 76.60 -15.57% 7/31/2014 76.60 $ -15.57% Materials Carpenter Technology Corp. CRS 63.25 54.14 -14.40% 7/17/2014 59.99 $ -5.15% Information Technology SunEdison, Inc. SUNE 22.60 20.00 -11.50% Consumer Staples Darling International Inc. DAR 20.90 18.72 -10.43% 7/15/2014 19.59 $ -6.27% Consumer Discretionary Jarden Corp. JAH 59.35 55.90 -5.81% 7/31/2014 55.90 $ -5.81% Information Technology JDS Uniphase Corp. JDSU 12.47 11.87 -4.81% Consumer Discretionary Sears Holdings Corporation SHLD 39.96 38.15 -4.53% Consumer Discretionary Carnival Corp. CCL 37.65 36.22 -3.80% Financials Deutsche Bank AG DB 35.18 34.16 -2.90% Materials Barrick Gold Corp. ABX 18.30 18.08 -1.20% Healthcare Allscripts Healthcare Solutions, Inc. MDRX 16.05 15.92 -0.81% Health Care Qiagen NV QGEN 24.45 24.43 -0.08% Energy Golar LNG Ltd. GLNG 60.10 61.61 2.51% Materials Air Products & Chemicals Inc. APD 128.62 131.95 2.59% Ascendere Associates LLC July 31, 2014 J. Stephen Castellano Page 6 steve@ascenderellc.com
* Return figures are calculated using cumulative simple returns. This table represents returns of several theoretical portfolios that do not assume any costs. This table is not to be construed as advertising for any investment service. Real portfolios that attempt to exactly replicate these theoretical strategies will generate lower returns relative to these models due to slippage, transaction costs, tax expenses and other costs. There are limitations inherent in our theoretical results, particularly with the fact that such results do not represent actual trading and they may not reflect the impact material economic and market factors might have had on our decision making if we were actually managing client money. We do our best to provide accurate information, but do not guarantee this. Please see additional disclosures and disclaimers.
Theoretical Model Portfolio* 07/31/14 MTD YTD Since 03/31/09 Sharpe Simple Returns (No Compounding) Stock Targets Core Model Long -0.44% -0.67% 5.11% 143.8% 1.04 Short 0.12% -4.45% 0.99% 87.0% 0.72 Core Long/Short -0.56% 3.77% 4.12% 56.8% 0.57 Stock Targets and Opportunistic Model Portfolio Targets Long -0.44% -0.52% 0.47% 130.3% 1.24 Short 0.00% -4.45% 0.67% 38.1% 0.29 Opportunistic Long/Short -0.44% 3.93% -0.20% 92.2% 1.05 Stock Targets and Opportunistic Model III Portfolio Targets Long Stocks -0.44% -0.52% 0.47% 130.3% 1.24 Long Inverse ETF ^SH 0.00% 1.28% -5.17% -70.6% (1.03) Opportunistic Long/Short III -0.44% 0.76% -4.70% 59.7% 0.73 S&P 500 Index -0.60% -1.47% 4.69% 96.02% 1.06 Ascendere Associates LLC July 31, 2014 J. Stephen Castellano Page 7 steve@ascenderellc.com
Ascendere Associates LLC July 31, 2014 J. Stephen Castellano Page 8 steve@ascenderellc.com
Ascendere Associates LLC July 31, 2014 J. Stephen Castellano Page 9 steve@ascenderellc.com
DISCLOSURES Ascendere is in the business of providing equity research and related consulting services to investors and their advisors. The equity research it provides includes basic quantitative model portfolios and more detailed fundamental research with respect to individual stocks. In addition, the firm manages stock portfolios for itself and clients.
Ascendere does not rate stocks on any scale, but does offer individual stock commentary and valuation opinions. With regard to Ascendere's portfolio strategies, "long" or "high-quality" baskets should generally be considered buys, unless otherwise noted. Stocks in our "short" or "low-quality" baskets should generally be considered sells, unless otherwise noted. While exceptions may occasionally occur, typically stocks in the high-quality basket are expected to outperform the S&P 500 over a month's time and stocks in the low-quality basket are expected to underperform. A more relevant benchmark would comprise of all stocks and ADRs that trade on major U.S. stock exchanges with a market cap above $2 billion.
Ascendere adheres to professional standards and abides by codes of ethics that put the interests of clients ahead of its own. The following are specific disclosures made by Ascendere: 1) Ascendere may have a financial interest in the companies referred to in this report ("the Companies"). The research analyst covering the Companies and members of the analyst's immediate family have a financial interest in one or more of the Companies. 2) Ascendere generates revenue from research subscription revenue and portfolio management fees. At any given time it may be long or short any of the Companies. 3) Ascendere does not make a market in the securities of any of the Companies. 4) Ascendere has not received compensation from the Companies. 5) Ascendere has not managed or co-managed a public offering for any of the Companies. 6) Neither Ascendere nor any of its officers or any family member of the covering analyst serve as an officer, director or advisory board member of any of the Companies. 7) Neither Ascendere nor any of its officers or any family member of the covering analyst beneficially own 1% or more of any class of securities of any of the Companies.
DISCLAIMERS This report is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation, or an offer, to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. The report is not intended to be in furtherance of the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any individual recipient. Investment decisions should be based on an individual's own goals, time horizon and tolerance for risk. The information contained herein accurately reflects the opinion of Ascendere at the time the report was released. The opinions of Ascendere are subject to change at any time without notice and without obligation or notification. The officers, affiliates or family members of Ascendere Associates may hold positions in the securities of the Companies. No warranty is made as to the accuracy of the information contained herein. The views and opinions expressed in the market commentary reflect the opinions of the author and may be based upon information obtained from third-party sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed. These opinions are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions. Ascendere disclaims any responsibility to update such views. This information is intended for the sole use of clients of Ascendere. Any other use, distribution or reproduction is strictly prohibited. Investing in stocks includes a high degree of risk, including the risk of total loss. This is for informational purposes only and is not intended to constitute a current or past recommendation, investment advice of any kind, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities or investment services. All information, opinions and estimates are current as of original distribution by author and are subject to change at any time without notice. Any companies, securities and/or markets referenced are solely for illustrative purposes. Past performance is not indicative of future performance, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made regarding future performance.
For Investment Professional use only. NOT FOR FURTHER DISTRIBUTION. Any dissemination or copying of this commentary is strictly prohibited. Ascendere Associates LLC July 31, 2014 J. Stephen Castellano Page 10 steve@ascenderellc.com J. Stephen Castellano founded Ascendere Associates LLC to provide innovative equity research and investment advisory services that blends fundamental and quantitative approaches.
In general, our approach is quite simple -- we believe that return on invested capital and long-term earnings growth are key to stock valuation. More specifically, we use powerful and unique financial models that combine publicly available data, consensus estimates and our own inputs to generate consistent and actionable stock recommendations.
Among the services that Ascendere provides are: 1) detailed custom equity research analysis; 2) valuation scenario analysis studies; 3) supply /demand studies; 4) long and short stock idea generation; 5) portfolio feedback; 6) detailed fundamental financial modeling services; and 7) additional analytical consulting services. Additional information is available at www.ascenderellc.com.
Mr. Castellano has over 15 years of experience in equity research and related consulting work. At PaineWebber, Warburg Dillon Read and Credit Lyonnais Securities he developed fundamental equity valuation models and conducted in-depth research on the steel and telecom services industries. At Boston Private Value Investors, he developed quantitative models for stock idea generation and also provided general fundamental equity research coverage. Steve received a MBA from the F. W. Olin School of Business at Babson College (2005) and a BA from Oberlin College (1993).
Mr. Castellano's career history is highlighted below:
Startup Ecommerce Company (2013-Present) Ascendere Associates, LLC (2009-Present) Boston Private Value Investors , Equity Research, Equity Research Analyst (2005-2009) Pyramid Research, Contract Consultant, Telecom Services (2002-2003) Credit Lyonnais Securities (USA), Equity Research, Telecom Services, Vice President (2000-2001) Warburg Dillon Read, Equity Research, Telecom Services, Research Associate (1999-2000) PaineWebber, Equity Research, Steel and Nonferrous Metals, Research Associate, Editor (1995-1999)