2002 Population and Housing Census Provisional Results

FOREWORD

The Statistics Act No. 12 of 1998 empowers the Uganda Bureau of Statistics to act as the
principal data collecting and disseminating agency responsible for coordinating, monitoring and
supervising the National Statistical System. The Act was the legal basis for conducting the
Population and Housing Census from 13 to 19 September 2002. The census was conducted by
the Bureau in collaboration with partner institutions.

The 2002 Population and Housing Census was the most comprehensive census ever undertaken in
Uganda. It collected household-based data on population, housing, agriculture, micro and small
enterprises and community-based data. Such data are a strategic resource that needs to be
harnessed for development by Government and other stakeholders including the private sector,
public sector, research and training institutions, civil society operators including NGOs and the
press, donors, international organizations and the public at large. In addition, the re-launching of
the Vital Registration System in the country was piggybacked onto the census operation.

The results from the census will be released in a series of publications. The Preliminary Results from
the census were compiled and released within two weeks from the end of the enumeration. The
publication gave Ugandas population disaggregated by sex and district. This publication is based on
more detailed information than was made available at the time of the Preliminary release. The final
results which will be based on more definitive and subject-oriented analysis, will be released in
phases over the next two years.

On behalf of the Board of Directors of the Uganda Bureau of Statistics, I would like first of all to
extend appreciation to the Government of Uganda and development partners for making necessary
resources available for undertaking the census. Secondly, I would like to thank all partner
institutions that collaborated with the Bureau in carrying out this onerous and yet necessary
statistical operation. I have no doubt that if it were not for the strong partnership between
Government, partners in development and collaborating national institutions, the census would not
have been properly organized and implemented in a synergic manner. I would also like to thank the
management of the Bureau, the Census Office and all those who in one way or another
participated in the planning and/or successful implementation of the census including members of
the inter-institutional Steering and Technical Advisory Committees, field staff including supervisors
and enumerators and the millions of individual respondents.

The high cost of the census operation will be justified to the extent that extensive use is made of
census data and information as a basis for policy analysis, debate and design; planning,
implementation, monitoring and evaluation especially of major development goals and Government
initiatives, good governance and especially democratization and decentralization; decision-making at
every level of society; investment and business transactions; and for many other purposes. Census
data and information, like all official statistics, are a public good which the Bureau pledges to
make readily available and accessible to all users.

Together we can harness information resources from the census to eradicate poverty and create a
better Uganda for all.

Prof. Ben Kiregyera
Chairman, Board of Directors



2002 Population and Housing Census Provisional Results


CHAPTER 1

INTRODUCTION


1.1 Background

In order to plan well for the population, one needs its demographic data. Demographic
data includes indicators like the birth rate, death rate, age composition, spatial distribution
and migration patterns. These indicators are closely related to and are affected by socio-
economic characteristics like employment, occupation, education, health and so on.

Demographic data and the related socio-economic characteristics are collected through
population censuses, civil registration system, demographic and socio-economic surveys
and/or other administrative records. Of these, the population census is the main source of
demographic and socio-economic data in Uganda. Population counts of a mainly
administrative nature were conducted in Uganda in 1911, 1921, and 1931. The pre-
independence scientific censuses were conducted in 1948 and 1959. The African and
non-African populations were enumerated separately in each of these censuses.

After independence, population censuses were conducted in 1969, 1980 and 1991. For
all these censuses, the observation unit was the individual. They had a "built-in" sample
enumeration to generate more detailed information. They were conducted simultaneously
for both African and non-African population. Thus there was a big improvement in the
quality of census taking and coverage compared to the 1948 and 1959 censuses.


1.2 The 2002 Population and Housing Census

The most recent census was conducted in September 2002. Its reference period, the Census
Night, was the night of 12
th
September 2002. The actual enumeration started on 13
th

September and ended on 19
th
September 2002. The enumeration was done by trained
enumerators who canvassed the Enumeration Areas (EAs) and administered the
questionnaires to the household heads or any other knowledgeable household members.
Special arrangements were made to enumerate institutional and homeless populations. The
census administered a standard questionnaire to all persons countrywide.

In order to facilitate speedy compilation of the Census results, each enumerator used a
standard summary sheet to compile the number of households, number of business
enterprises and the population enumerated, separating between males and females. This
was done under very close supervision of technical staff from UBOS. Using these
summaries, the Uganda Bureau of Statistics compiled these Provisional Results. These
results give the population broken down by sex at the national, regional, district and

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2002 Population and Housing Census Provisional Results

subcounty levels. However, these results can be made available at lower level administrative
units of parish and village.

The Uganda Bureau of Statistics committed itself to releasing the results from the census in
a timely manner. The Preliminary Results were released two weeks after the completion of
actual enumeration. These Provisional Results, offering more details, are being released
during the Africa Statistics Week celebrations as promised during the release of the
Preliminary results in October 2002. The Final Results and the accompanying analyses
will be released in phases over the next two years.


In order to compare the populations in the districts, the population obtained in the 1969,
1980 and 1991 censuses were re-cast to the current district boundaries. For purposes of
statistical comparison with past trends, the country is divided into four regions namely
Central, Eastern, Northern and Western. These are groups of districts with similar socio-
economic conditions and sharing many demographic as well as cultural characteristics. The
regions therefore are not meant to reflect administrative or political arrangements.

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2002 Population and Housing Census Provisional Results


CHAPTER 2

THE PROVISIONAL RESULTS


2.1. The Population of Uganda, 1948 2002

Uganda had a total population of 24.7 million persons as of the Night of 12
th
/13
th

September 2002. It should be noted that this figure is slightly different from that of 24.6
million given in the Preliminary report. The figure of 24.7 was obtained by using more
detailed source materials (Enumeration Area level summaries) which were not available at
the time the preliminary results were compiled. The enumeration area summaries were
scrutinized by the Bureau for accuracy and completeness.

Over a period of about 12 years (January 1991 to September 2002), there was an
increase of 8 million persons. This is the highest inter-censal increase ever registered.
During the 1948-2002 period, the population of Uganda increased nearly five times from 5
million to 24.7 million (see Table 1 below)

Table 1: Ugandas Population, 1948 2002

Index 1948 1959 1969 1980 1991 2002
Population (million) 5.0 6.5 9.5 12.6 16.7 24.7
Population Increase
(million)
1.5 3.0 3.1 4.1 8.0
Average Annual
Increase

143,000 300,000 282,000 367,000 685,518

2.2 Sex Composition of the Population

The study of the sex composition of the population is useful for understanding the past trends
of population change. The sex ratio defined as number of males per 100 females is an index
for comparing the numerical balance between the two sexes in different population groups
irrespective of their size, location and time reference.

Overall, there are 12.1 million males as compared to 12.6 million females. This gives a
sex ratio of 96.0 males per 100 females. Table 2 shows that the overall sex ratio in Uganda
showed a rising trend between 1948 and 1969 and a declining trend thereafter.

Table 2: Sex Ratios in Uganda, 1948 2002


3


Index 1948 1959 1969 1980 1991 2002
Sex Ratio 100.2 100.9 101.9 98.2 96.5 96.0
2002 Population and Housing Census Provisional Results


Appendix 1 gives the sex ratios for districts and regions from data of the 1969, 1980, 1991
and 2002 censuses. The regional level sex ratios in 2002 are quite close, ranging between
95 for Eastern region and 98 for Central region, implying that there is no major regional
variation in the sex composition. However, the district level sex ratio in 2002 varied widely
between 156 for Kalangala and 83 for Kisoro. In general, the districts in the Central region
(excluding Kampala and Kayunga) have sex ratios above the national level.

2.3 Spatial Distribution of the Population

The spatial population distribution in Uganda is uneven. The percentage distributions by
region and district in 1969, 1980, 1991 and 2002 are shown in Appendix 2.

The distribution shows that the Central region has the largest share of the population
(27%) while the Western and Eastern regions have 26% and 25%, respectively. The
share of the Northern region is 22% (See Figure 1). This pattern is similar to that
observed in the 1980 and 1991 censuses.
0
10
20
30
R
e
g
i
o
n
a
l

S
h
a
r
e


(
%
)
Central Eastern Northern Western
Figure 1: Percent Share of Population by Region in 1991
and 2002
1991 2002


Kampala district has the largest population with about 1.2 million persons
1
, followed by
Mbarara district with about 1.1 million persons. The majority of the districts (39 out of
56) have each a population less than 500,000 and another eight (8) districts have a
population of less than 200,000. Kalangala district has the smallest population of 36,661
persons. The distribution of the population by sub-county is given in Appendix 4.

The concept of population density is useful in a discussion of the carrying capacity of an area.
The population density in this report is given with reference to persons per square kilometre
of land area. The population density of Uganda, which was only 48 in 1969, has increased
to 126 persons per square kilometre in 2002 (see Table 3). It should be noted that


4


1
It is emphasized that this figure relates to that population that spent the census night within the confines of
Kampala district. It is generally believed that Kampala has a high day population (the population that works but
does not reside within Kampala district) which is not reflected in this figure.
2002 Population and Housing Census Provisional Results

Uganda's population density is much higher than that of her immediate neighbours (Kenya-
54, Tanzania-39 and Sudan-66). However it is lower than that of Rwanda-281.

Table 3: Population Density of Uganda, 1969 2002

Index 1969 1980 1991 2002
Population Density
(Persons per Sq Km)
48 64 85 126

Appendix 2 shows the population densities in 1969, 1980, 1991 and 2002 for Uganda
and its regions and districts. These figures reveal that the Eastern region has remained the
most densely populated area since 1969 while the Northern region is the most sparsely
populated since 1980.

2.4 Population Growth

Ugandas Population grew at an average annual rate of 3.4% between 1991 and 2002.
The high rate of population growth is mainly due to the persistently high fertility levels
(about seven children per woman) that have been observed for the past four decades. The
decline in mortality reflected by a decline in Infant and Childhood Mortality Rates as
revealed by the Uganda Demographic and Health Surveys (UDHS) of 1995 and 2000-
2001, have also contributed to the high population growth rate.

The highest ever average annual population growth rate of 3.85 percent was recorded
between 1959 and 1969, as shown in Table 4. It should be noted that the 1969 census
used a different method of data collection which could have been responsible, to some
extent, for the higher growth rate obtained for that inter-censal period.

The population growth rates declined thereafter to as low as 2.5% between 1980 and
1991. However, the 2002 census showed a reversal of the trend by giving a higher rate of
3.4%.

Table 4: Population Growth Rates, 1948 2002

Index
1948 - 59 1959 - 69 1969 8 0 1980 91 1991 - 02 1969 02
Inter-censal Annual
Growth Rate (%)
2.54 3.85 2.71 2.52 3.4 2.87

During the 1969-2002 period (the first and most recent post-independence censuses), the
population of Uganda increased from 9.5 to 24.6 million, an increase of 15.2 million over a
period of 33 years. This gives a growth rate of 2.87% (see Table 4). This is a high growth

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2002 Population and Housing Census Provisional Results

rate when compared with the neigbouring countries i.e. 2.0% for Kenya, 2.7% for Tanzania
and 2.2% for Rwanda
2
.

Figure 2 below shows that during the 1991 2002 period, the Northern region had the
highest observed population growth rate of 4.5% per annum followed by the Eastern
region with 3.6%. The Central and Western regions have fairly close growth rates of 2.8%
and 2.9% per annum respectively. The Central region had the highest population growth
rate during the period 1980 to 1991, while the Western region had the highest during the
period 1960 to 1980.

A review of the population size by district indicates that all districts registered positive
population growth rates between 1991 and 2002. On the other hand, between 1980
1991 when the districts of Katakwi, Kumi, Nakapiripirit and Soroti registered negative
population growth rates (see Appendix 3). The annual population growth rates vary
widely by district, ranging between 9.5% for Kotido and less than 1% for Masaka. Out of
the 56 districts, 17 districts had growth rates within the range of 2.5% to 3.5% as shown
in table 4. Of the remaining 39 districts, 27 had growth rates higher than 3.5% while 12
had growth rates lower than 2.5%.

Figure 2: Regional Annual Population Growth Rates 1969-2002

0
1
2
3
4
5
A
n
n
u
a
l

G
r
o
w
t
h

R
a
t
e

(
%
)
Central Eastern Northern Western
1980 - 91 1991 - 02


2.5 Household and Institutional Population

The census defined a household as a group of persons who normally LIVE and EAT
together. Out of the 24.7 million persons in Uganda, 99 percent (24.4 million) were
enumerated in households. The remaining 297,698 were enumerated in institutions or as
homeless or floating population.




6


2
2002 World Population Data Sheet compiled by the Population Reference Bureau, USA
2002 Population and Housing Census Provisional Results

2.51 Household Population

Another population indicator that was computed was the mean household size. This is the
summary measure that gives the number of persons per household and is obtained as the ratio
of the total household population to the number of households in an area. In the 2002
census, the mean household size in Uganda was 4.7 persons. This is quite close to that from
the previous censuses (see Table 5). This shows that the mean household size in Uganda has
been fairly stable over the past four decades. However, despite this stability in the overall
size, some variations are observed with respect to different districts/regions.

Table 5: Mean Household Size, 1969 2002

Index 1969 1980 1991 2002
Average Household Size 4.7 Not
Available
4.8 4.7

NB: The figure for 1969 excludes Karamoja area

The household cycle (formation, expansion, contraction and dissolution) depends highly on
the socio-economic and cultural characteristics of the household head and its members.
Consequently, as shown in Appendix 3, wide variations are observed in average household
size by region and district. The average household size ranges between 4.2 for Central and
5.2 for Northern region. Only Central region has a mean household size smaller than the
national average.

Kalangala district has the smallest mean household size of 2.7 persons while Pader has the
largest (9 persons). All the districts of Central region (except Nakasongola 5.0 and
Kayunga 4.7) have household sizes lower than the national average. For the Northern
region, out of the 13 districts, only 4 have household size less that national average. These
districts include Adjumani, Kitgum, Moroto and Nakapiripirit.

2.52 Institutional Population:

In addition to population enumerated in households, some persons were enumerated in
institutions or as floating population. It should be observed that the census was conducted
when the schools were on holiday, hence, the boarding school pupils and students were
mainly enumerated as household population.

The non-household population constitutes a very small component (1.2%) of the total
population. The data shows that the sex ratio of the non-household population at 106 is
quite different from that of the household population.


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2002 Population and Housing Census Provisional Results



2.6 Urbanization

Urbanization is the change in the proportion of the population that lives in urban areas. The
data on urban areas from the previous censuses included ungazzeted Trading Centres of
1,000 persons or more. However, for purposes of the Census 2002, urban areas include
only gazetted cities, municipalities, and towns. This difference in the definition is responsible for
the seemingly low level of urbanization registered in the Census 2002.

The majority of the population of Uganda (88 percent in 2002) live in the rural areas. The
urban population as enumerated in 1969, 1980, 1991 and 2002 censuses is given in Table
6. The proportion of urban dwellers increased overtime from 6.6% in 1969 to 12% in
2002. The urban population registered growth rates of 8.2 percent between 1959 and
1969, 3.9% during 1969-1980, 5.8% during 1980-1991 and 4.6% between 1991 and
2002. The rate of growth for urban population obtained for the period 1991-2002 is the
lowest ever for any inter-censal period. However, there are many urban centers, which are
not officially gazetted. If these are gazetted and included in the urban population, the level
of urbanization in 2002 will be higher.

Table 6: Urbanization in Uganda, 1969 2002

Index 1969 1980 1991 2002
Number of Towns 58 96 150 74
Urban Population 634,952 938,287 1,889,622 2,921,981
Proportion Urban (%) 6.6 7.4 11.3 12.2
Urban Growth Rate
(%)
8.17 3.93 6.35 3.73
% In Capital City 53.9 47.9 41.0 40.7
% In 20 Largest
Towns
87.4 80.4 74.4 76.6

Caution: The figures for the 1969, 1980 and 1991 are as per the 1991 definition, while
those for 2002 are as per the 2002 definition and hence should not be
compared.

The district and regional level urbanization status is given in Appendix 3. The central
region has more than half of the total urban population (54%), while the other three
regions share the balance almost equally (Northern 17%, Western 14% and Eastern
13%). The high proportion of urban population in the central region is attributed to
Kampala city which constituted 41% of the total urban population in 2002. If Kampala is
excluded from Central region, the proportion for Central region drops to 15%, which
would be in line with the other regions.

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2002 Population and Housing Census Provisional Results


The level of urbanization (percentage of urban to total population) by region/district is given
in Appendix 3. In 1969, 3 districts of Kampala (100%), Jinja (25.6%) and Gulu (8.1%)
were above the national average (6.6%). Five(5) districts had urbanization rate above the
national average of 7.4% of 1980. In 1991, by Six(6) districts had urbanization rates
above the national average of 11.3% while in 2002, 7 districts (Kampala, Mukono, Busia,
Jinja, Gulu, Kitgum and Nebbi) had rates above the national urbanisation level of 12.2.

The urban population is concentrated in a few urban areas. Kampala has remained the
prime urban centre throughout the period 1969-2002. However, the proportion of the
total urban population in Kampala City declined from 56% in 1969 to 41% in 2002,
showing that the smaller urban areas are growing faster. Table 7 shows the population of
the 20 largest urban areas of Uganda, and their population sizez in 1969, 19890, 1991
and 2002. Between 1991 and 2002. Between 1991 and 2002 Mukono showed the
highest growth rate (15.9%), while Soroti Municipality showed the lowest rate (0.1%).
The high growth rate for Kitgum (10.3%), Lira (10.1%), Gulu (9.3%) and Kasese
(9.0%) is partly attributed to insecurity forsing the population to move to towns, which
are relatively more secure.






















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2002 Population and Housing Census Provisional Results





Table 7: Population of the 20 Largest Urban Centres, 1969 - 2002

Census Population District
Urban Centre
1969 1980 1991 2002
Growth
Rate
1991-02
1 KAMPALA Kampala 330,700 458,503 774,241 1,208,544 3.8
2 GULU Gulu 18,170 14,958 38,297 113,144 9.3
3 LIRA Lira 7,340 9,122 27,568 89,871 10.1
4 JINJA Jinja 47,872 45,060 65,169 86,520 2.4
5 MBALE Mbale 23,544 28,039 53,987 70,437 2.3
6 MBARARA Mbarara 16,078 23,255 41,031 69,208 4.5
7 MASAKA Masaka 12,987 29,123 49,585 61,300 1.8
8 WAKISO Entebbe 21,096 21,289 42,763 57,518 2.5
9 KASESE Kasese 7,213 9,917 18,750 53,446 9.0
10 MUKONO Njeru 4,637 3,880 36,731 52,514 3.1
11 MUKONO Mukono 3,565 5,783 7,406 47,305 15.9
12 ARUA Arua 10,837 9,663 22,217 45,883 6.2
13 KABALE Kabale 8,234 21,469 29,246 45,757 3.8
14 KITGUM Kitgum 3,242 4,961 12,978 42,929 10.3
15 TORORO Tororo 15,977 16,707 26,783 42,473 4.0
16 SOROTI Soroti 12,398 15,048 40,970 41,470 0.1
17 KABAROLE Fort Portal 7,947 26,806 32,789 40,605 1.8
18 IGANGA Iganga 5,958 9,899 19,740 38,009 5.6
19 BUSIA Busia 1,146 8,663 27,967 37,947 2.6
20 MUBENDE Busia 2,263 2,547 22,579 34,623 3.7
Total 516,204 764,692 1,390,797 2,279,413 4.2














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2002 Population and Housing Census Provisional Results


CHAPTER 3

IMPLICATIONS OF THE 2002 POPULATION RESULTS


Data on age composition of the population are useful in determining the current and future
size of different socio-economic and demographic sub-populations. Such sub-populations
include infants, children, youth, elderly, economically active, school age population and
women of reproductive age.

The age structure of the Uganda population for 2002 is not yet available. However, given
that age structure of a population does not change rapidly, the age structure observed
from the UDHS 2000 01 is considered valid for the 2002 population. When this age
structure is applied on to the census population, some important inferences are made.

These are:
Given a Crude Birth Rate of 47.3 per 1000, a total of 1.2 million births are
expected in 2002. This is not surprising given that the women of reproductive age
(15 49 years) are estimated to be 5 million.
The infant population (aged under one year) is estimated to be 1,064,000, while
that under five years is estimated at about 5 million.
The Primary School Age population (6 12 years) is estimated at 5.8 million.
The Young Adults (10 24 Years) are estimated at 7.9 million. This is the
population that generates the momentum to the population growth.

If Uganda maintains the current population growth rate of 3.3 percent per annum, the
population will increase to 54 million in the year 2025 (Figure 3), i.e. doubling in less
than 25 years.

Figure 3: Projected Population of Uganda, 2005 - 2025

At the regional level, population projections for 2005 are made. The projections indicate
that the populations of all the regions will increase considerably. The population in central
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
P
r
o
j
e
c
t
e
d

P
o
p
u
l
a
t
i
o
n

(
m
i
l
l
i
o
n
s
)
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

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2002 Population and Housing Census Provisional Results

region will increase to 7.1 million, closely followed by western and eastern regions (6.9
and 6.6 million respectively) and the northern region will increase to 6.1 million.

Table 7: Projected Population of the Regions in Uganda, 2005

Index Central Eastern Northern Western
Census Population (2002) 6,625,239 6,208,351 5,366,104 6,351,327
Observed Growth Rate 2.76 3.62 4.53 2.95
Projected Population (2005) -
Million
7.2 7.0 6.1 7.0
Population Increase 536,000 672,000 722,000 552,000

During the period 2002 2005, Ugandas population is expected to increase by 2.4
million persons or twice the population of Kampala. The biggest increase would be in
Northern Region (700,000 persons) while the least would be in central region (500,000
persons).


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