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SECTOR: BANKING
Yes Bank
Makings of a winner
Ajinkya Dhavale (AjinkyaDhavale@MotilalOswal.com) + 91 22 3982 5426
Alpesh Mehta (Alpesh.Mehta@MotilalOswal.com) / Parag Jariwala (Parag.Jariwala@MotilalOswal.com)
Yes Bank
Contents
Page No.
Strengthening reach and liability franchise - next growth driver ................... 14-15
Annexure IV: Yes Bank v/s peers in the initial years of operations .................... 28
30 November 2009 2
SECTOR: BANKING
Yes Bank
STOCK INFO. BLOOMBERG
30 November 2009
BSE Sensex: 16,926 YES IN Buy
REUTERS CODE
S&P CNX: 5,033 YESB.BO Initiating Coverage Rs253
Y/E MARCH 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Above-industry growth in assets and earnings sustainable
Despite 76% CAGR in assets over FY06-09, Yes Bank's market share
NII (Rs m) 5,112 7,335 9,655 12,363
is a mere 0.55% as of September 2009. Rapid branch network
OP (Rs m) 5,277 7,806 10,020 12,746
NP (Rs m) 3,038 4,307 5,492 6,966
expansion, acquisition of new customers and deepening of existing
EPS (Rs) 10.2 14.5 16.1 20.4
customer relationships would help ensure that its asset growth remains
EPS Growth (%) 51.3 41.8 10.9 26.8 higher than industry. With likely capital raising in next one year (we
BV/Share (Rs) 54.7 69.2 108.9 129.3 have factored in US$235m at Rs250/share), tier-I CAR would improve
P/E (x) 24.7 17.4 15.7 12.4 to ~12% and support asset growth over the next 2-3 years. We expect
P/BV (x) 4.6 3.7 2.3 2.0 loan CAGR of 37% and PAT CAGR of ~32% over FY09-12.
ABV (Rs) 53.8 68.4 107.7 127.5
P/ABV (x) 4.7 3.7 2.3 2.0 Strengthening reach and liability franchise - next growth
RoE (%) 20.6 23.4 19.0 17.1 driver
RoA (%) 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.5 As of September 2009, Yes Bank had 126 operational branches. It
targets to scale up its branch network to 250 by FY12 and 750 by
KEY FINANCIALS
Shares Outstanding (m) 297.0
FY15. The bank mainly focuses on the national capital region and the
Market Cap. (Rs b) 75.1 western region of India, which would help it to increase its CASA
Market Cap. (US$ b) 1.6 base. We believe CASA growth would continue to outpace loan growth,
Past 3 yrs. NII Growth (%) 80.4 going forward and CASA ratio would increase from the current 10%
Past 3 yrs. NP Growth (%) 78.3 to 14% by FY11 and 16% by FY12.
Dividend Payout (%) 0.0
Dividend Yield (%) 0.0
Execution capability well tested in last 12 months
Yes Bank's impressive performance during FY09 demonstrates the
STOCK DATA
30 November 2009 3
Yes Bank
Despite 76% CAGR in assets over FY06-09, Yes Bank's market share is a mere 0.55%
as of September 2009, highlighting the potential for sustaining above-industry growth.
Rapid branch network expansion, acquisition of new customers and deepening of existing
customer relationships would help ensure that its asset growth remains higher than industry.
While operating cost would accelerate with expanding branch network, we believe fee
income growth would make up for the same. With likely capital raising in the next one
year (we have factored in US$235m at Rs250/share), tier-I CAR would improve to ~12%
and support asset growth over the next 2-3 years. We expect loans CAGR of 37% and
PAT CAGR of ~32% over FY09-12, and believe that RoA would sustain ~1.5%.
161
Since inception, Yes Bank's
loan growth has been above
the industry average
50
37 32
28 22 17
Source: Company/MOSL
We expect the bank to We expect the management to capitalize strong growth opportunity in the Indian economy,
increase its share in system with its knowledge banking initiatives and strong corporate relationships. In the current
loans to ~0.7% by FY12 from environment, it is focusing on corporate and institutional banking (C&IB) for clients with
the current 0.55% a turnover >Rs10b) and commercial banking (for clients having turnover of Rs1b-10b) to
grow its loan book. Its expanding branch network would help to grow its high yielding
branch banking loans (to clients having turnover <Rs1b and retail customers). We expect
the bank to increase its share in system loans to ~0.7% by FY12.
30 November 2009 4
Yes Bank
0.7
0.6
0.5
In just five years of
0.5
operations, Yes Bank's 0.4
market share has increased 0.3
to 55bp, which is
0.2
commendable
1.1 1.1
1.0
0.9
Source: Company/MOSL
C&IB (Large corp) Commerical Banking (Mid corp) Branch Banking (SME and Retail)
Source: Company/MOSL
30 November 2009 5
Yes Bank
In the near-term, Yes Bank would be focusing on the C&IB and commercial banking
segments. It is expanding its branch network, and with the resultant increased access to
customers, it would begin focusing on the SME and retail customers. For such customers,
the bank intends to focus on collateralized lending - business loans, LAP, LAS, etc.
SEGMENTS EXPOSURE
Commercial Banking
Under this division, Yes Bank aims to support companies through their life-cycle. It provides project
advisory, working capital assistance, term funding, insurance, trade finance and treasury services. It
also caters to its clients' growth requirements by arranging for private equity, advising on M&A, going
public through IPOs, GDRs, FCCBs, etc. Its key customers include Allcargo, Cambridge group, Century
Ply, UTV group, Radico Khaitan, Network 18, etc.
Business Banking
The business banking division serves customers with annual sales turnover of less than Rs1b and
focuses mainly on SMEs. Usually, SME clients are branch-centric and Yes Bank serves this segment
through its SME clustered branches. Exposure to this segment is secured through collaterals. For
growing its balance sheet from this segment, the bank focuses mainly on the sunrise segments by taking
advantage of its knowledge banking initiatives.
30 November 2009 6
Yes Bank
Source: Company/MOSL
While the bank is likely to be the biggest beneficiary of bulk deposit re-pricing, it intends to
garner higher retail term deposits by paying competitive premium. In FY10, it is focusing
on increasing its retail deposit franchise and accelerating customer acquisition.
With the expected rise in interest rates and drying up of liquidity in FY11, margins for
wholesale banks would be under pressure. However, in our estimates, we have built in
higher proportion of retail liabilities and the benefit of capital raising, which would help to
maintain margins. We expect a margin decline in FY12. Higher than expected growth in
CASA deposits will lead to lower pressure on margins.
30 November 2009 7
Yes Bank
53.2 53.2
52.2
50.1
Source: Company/MOSL
Yes Bank already has the requisite infrastructure to grow its income from third-party
product distribution (126 branches and dedicated sales staff to focus on third-party products).
The management has stated that it will use the benefit of margin expansion (due to fall in
cost of funds) to garner top-rated accounts, which offer lower yields and spreads, but
higher fee-based opportunities, helping to sustain RoA.
We expect 31% CAGR in We expect 31% CAGR in non-interest income over FY09-12. We have factored in 20%
non-interest income CAGR in financial market income, ~50% CAGR in financial advisory income (on a lower
over FY09-12 base and strong capital markets), and ~40% CAGR in transaction banking fees (in line
with loan growth) over FY09-12.
30 November 2009 8
Yes Bank
Corporate fees would Considering the bank's limited retail products and clients due to unleveraged and young
continue to dominate its branch network, we expect corporate fees to dominate its overall fee income over the
overall fee income over the next few quarters. However, in the medium term, as its branch network expands and
next few quarters ages, wealth management fees would also emerge as a major contributor to fee revenues.
In FY09, with significantly higher currency volatility, there was a decline in volumes of
higher margin options and swaps. However, low-margin high-volume vanilla forex
transactions had increased significantly. Given a lower base (derivatives transactions had
dried up) and uptick in economic growth, forex income is likely to bounce back strongly in
FY10. Debt capital market related income is also likely show strong traction. In FY09,
financial markets contributed ~46% of the non-interest income. Excluding trading profits,
financial markets contributed just 12% of the non-interest income.
30 November 2009 9
Yes Bank
890
523 496
Financial markets income 400
364 347 332
has begun picking up 265 291 271
251 252
193
123
3QFY09*
1QFY10*
1QFY07
2QFY07
3QFY07
4QFY07
1QFY08
2QFY08
3QFY08
4QFY08
1QFY09
2QFY09
4QFY09
2QFY10
* adjusted for profit on sale of investments; other quarters may include trading profits, but proportion of
such income is negligible Source: Company/MOSL
353
282
Transaction banking 252 250
207
revenue gaining 178 187
strong traction 145
102
76 84
49
22 32
1QFY07
2QFY07
3QFY07
4QFY07
1QFY08
2QFY08
3QFY08
4QFY08
1QFY09
2QFY09
3QFY09
4QFY09
1QFY10
2QFY10
Source: Company/MOSL
The share of transaction banking income in non-interest income has steadily improved
from 6% in FY06 to 21% in FY09. The bank has effectively capitalized on growth in its
non-fund business when foreign banks and some leading private banks have been
significantly risk averse. Its non-fund based exposure in the form of LCs, BGs, and
acceptances has increased from 19% of its balance sheet size in FY07 to 33% in FY09.
30 November 2009 10
Yes Bank
563
2QFY07
3QFY07
4QFY07
1QFY08
2QFY08
3QFY08
4QFY08
1QFY09
2QFY09
3QFY09
4QFY09
1QFY10
2QFY10
Source: Company/MOSL
In periods of strong capital markets, financial advisory contributed ~30% of the bank's
non-interest income (12-15% of overall income). However, the contribution declined sharply
to ~20% in FY09. With improvement in capital markets, the share of financial advisory in
overall income has increased to ~25%, despite strong capital gains booked under financial
market income in 1QFY10. Yes Bank uses its strong corporate relationships to grow its
advisory income. Investment banking contributes ~65% of the advisory income and rest is
contributed by the corporate finance division.
Wealth management services (distribution fees) - could be the next big thing
The management's initial focus is on the 'mass affluent' segment and it would be expanding
its reach to affluent and HNI customers. Yes Bank offers a diverse product suite of
wealth management products including mutual funds, life insurance (Max New York Life),
and general insurance (Bajaj Allianz).
YES BANK: QUARTERLY TREND IN THIRD PARTY DISTRIBUTION INCOME (RS M)
233
2QFY07
3QFY07
4QFY07
1QFY08
2QFY08
3QFY08
4QFY08
1QFY09
2QFY09
3QFY09
4QFY09
1QFY10
2QFY10
Source: Company/MOSL
30 November 2009 11
Yes Bank
Expansion of its geographic spread and greater brand recognition would be drivers of this
business, going forward. We believe its geographic concentration in NCR and MMR
provides ample opportunity to grow this business. We believe wealth management will not
only help in augmenting fee income but also to garner low-cost deposits.
53.6
1.0 1.4
1.3
C/I ratio inline with peers 46.8
45.4 45.4
1.1 1.3
0.8
0.5
Source: Company/MOSL
1.8
1.5 1.4
1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9
Source: Company/MOSL
30 November 2009 12
Yes Bank
0.3
Source: Company/MOSL
51.5 1.1
Yes Bank's asset quality 1.1
will remain strong
0.8
0.7
20.0
0.3 0.3
0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3
Source: Company/MOSL
30 November 2009 13
Yes Bank
As of September 2009, Yes Bank had 126 operational branches. It targets to scale up its
branch network to 250 by FY12 and 750 by FY15. The bank has already opened its
flagship branches in all the major cities of India and now focuses mainly on mid-size
branches, most of which will be opened in North and West India. Efficient utilization of
branch license, with strong focus on strategic areas (targeting under-serviced mid and
small corporate clients and affluent individuals) will not only help to grow the balance
sheet size and fee-based income but also to grow its low-cost CASA base.
West East
25% 8%
South
12% North
55%
750
67 117 126
17 40
8
1HFY10
(MG)
(MG)
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY12
FY15
With 126 branches operational and expected addition of ~125 branches in the next 18
months, the focus on low cost deposits and retail term deposits is likely to increase. The
bank targets an increase in the share of retail deposits from ~24% of total deposits currently
to ~30%. We believe CASA growth would continue to outpace loan growth. CASA ratio
would increase to 14% by FY11 and 16% by FY12. To grow CASA deposits, the bank is
initially focusing on current account deposits by leveraging upon its corporate relationships.
~80% of its current CASA deposits come from CA deposits. While higher CA deposits
are favorable for margins (attract 0% interest v/s 3.5% for savings accounts), in the
longer term, higher savings deposits would be the key to CASA growth.
30 November 2009 14
Yes Bank
Institutional
CASA
Deposits
10% FD (Branch
11%
Banking)
CD
14%
Yes Bank's ~24% of deposits 18%
FD Govt
Institutions
10% FD (Comm Banking) FD (C&IB)
6% 31%
Source: Company/MOSL
PEER COMPARISION: AVERAGE CA AND AVERAGE CASA PER BRANCH IN 5TH YEAR OF OPERATIONS (RS M)
CA CASA 602
568
465
298
275
170
120 138
Source: Company/MOSL
30 November 2009 15
Yes Bank
Yes Bank's impressive performance during FY09 demonstrates the soundness of its business
model and the management's execution capabilities. Though it is a wholesale borrower,
with CASA ratio of <10%, its NIM was 2.8% at the peak of the financial crisis. In
3QFY09, Yes Bank was a net lender to RBI under LAF. Its reported NIM for FY09
improved ~20bp to 2.9%.
8.1
7.2
3.1 3.2
3.1 3.0
2.9 2.9 2.9
NIMs of the bank remained 2.8 2.8
strong at 2.8%+
2.3
1QFY08
2QFY08
3QFY08
4QFY08
1QFY09
2QFY09
3QFY09
4QFY09
1QFY10
2QFY10
Source: Company/MOSL
30 November 2009 16
Yes Bank
YES BANK: MOVEMENT IN GNPA RATIO, NET NPA RATIO AND PROVISION COVERAGE RATIO
74.9
66.4
GNPA remained below 1%
51.5 50.5
0.7
25.2 0.5
20.0 18.2 0.4
0.3 0.3
0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1
0.2
PEER COMPARISION: GNPA RATIO AND RESTRUCTURED LOANS AS OF SEPTEMBER 2009 (%)
2.5
0.3 4.4
1.0
1.8 1.2
0.3
Yes HDFC Axis ICICI
Source: Company/MOSL
FY 07 FY 08 FY09
Source: Company/MOSL
30 November 2009 17
Yes Bank
Strong RoA despite pressure on margins and capital market related fees
Yes Bank delivered "above industry" loan growth of 32% and profit growth of 50%+ in
FY09. Its NIM increased 20bp despite lower core retail deposits, its fee income grew
despite pressure on capital market and forex-related fees, it effectively controlled operating
expenditure, and its asset quality remained strong, demonstrating the strengths of Yes
Bank's business model and its relationship based business strategy.
30 November 2009 18
Yes Bank
Despite a highly competitive business environment, Yes Bank has created a niche for
itself in just five years of its execution by leveraging its knowledge banking initiatives. The
management focuses on growing its revenue per customer rather than just earning a
spread by banking transactions. A dexterous management team, having strong corporate
relations has not only helped the bank grow its balance sheet but also to lay a strong
foundation for its investment banking division. The bank's balance sheet has grown to
Rs264b and the share of fee income has remained impressive at 45%+ over the quarters.
30 November 2009 19
Yes Bank
Yes Bank's core operating profits were significantly better than ICICI Bank and Axis
Bank. HDFC Bank's core operating profits to average assets ratio was 30bp higher than
Yes Bank's. However, on core PBT to average assets, Yes Bank stood out with 2.23%, as
against 1.84% for HDFC Bank, 1.59% for Axis Bank and 1.09% for ICICI Bank.
30 November 2009 20
Yes Bank
We expect RoA of 1.5%+ and RoE of 17%+ over the next three years, despite equity
dilution. Given the superior return ratios, superlative growth and a competent management,
we believe Yes Bank deserves premium valuations. The stock trades at 2.3x FY11E BV
and 15.7x FY11E EPS. We initiate coverage with a Buy recommendation and a target
price of Rs327 (3x FY11E BV).
13.3 13.9
Source: Company/MOSL
30 November 2009 21
Yes Bank
Net Interest Income 3.1 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.7
Share of fee income Fee Income 3.5 2.5 2.5 1.9 1.7 1.9 1.9
Fee/Net Income Ratio 51.8 52.1 50.6 40.5 34.9 37.9 38.9
maintained at 40%+
Core Operating Income 6.6 4.7 4.9 4.5 4.5 4.7 4.7
Operating Expenses 3.2 2.5 2.4 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.1
Operating expenses fully Cost/Core Income Ratio 47.8 53.5 50.1 46.8 44.0 44.2 45.0
covered by non-interest Employee Cost 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9
Emp/Total Exp Ratio 58.2 60.7 59.3 52.1 50.1 47.6 44.9
income
Other Operating Expenses 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2
Core Operating Profits 3.5 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.6
Trading Profits 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3
Operating Profits 3.6 2.3 2.5 2.7 3.0 2.9 2.8
Provisions 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5
Strong asset quality leading
NPA Provisions 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4
to lower provisions Other Provisions 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
PBT 3.0 1.9 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.4
Tax 1.1 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8
Tax Rate (%) 35.6 34.3 34.7 34.8 35.0 35.0 35.0
RoA 1.9 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.5
One of the best return ratios Leverage (x) 6.9 11.2 13.3 13.6 14.3 12.0 11.1
in the industry RoE 13.3 13.9 19.0 20.7 23.4 19.0 17.1
Source: Company/MOSL
30 November 2009 22
Yes Bank
0
Average discount to
HDFC Bank valuation: 15% -30
Maximum premium: 20%
Maximum discount: 65% -60
-90
Jul-05
Oct-05
Feb-06
May-06
Dec-06
Jul-07
Nov-07
Feb-08
Jun-08
Dec-08
Jul-09
Nov-09
Sep-06
Sep-08
Apr-07
Apr-09
Source: MOSL
520
5x
390 4x
3x
260
2x
130 1x
0.5x
0
Jul-05
May-06
Feb-08
Dec-08
Nov-09
Apr-07
Source: MOSL
YES BANK TRADED AT 5X MAXIMUM MULTIPLE AND 0.6X MINIMUM MULTIPLE, CURRENTLY TRADING AT NEAR TO
3.6
2.7x
2.4
1.2 0.6x
0.0
May-07
Mar-09
Jul-05
Feb-06
Oct-06
Dec-07
Nov-09
Aug-08
Source: MOSL
30 November 2009 23
Yes Bank
Following its IPO in July 2005, the bank has diluted equity twice through private placement.
In the first instance, it had issued 10m equity shares to Swiss Reinsurance Company at
Rs120/share, and in the second instance, it had issued 14.7m shares to Orient Global
Tamarind Fund at Rs225/share.
30 November 2009 24
Yes Bank
Annexure I
Company background
Yes Bank began operations in May 2004. Its promoters, who established Rabo India
Finance as a leading investment bank in India, have the distinction of obtaining RBI's only
Greenfield banking license in the last decade. The bank commenced with its Corporate &
Institutional Banking and Business Banking operations in August 2004, followed by Financial
and Treasury operations in September 2004. Transaction banking took off in October
2004.
Source: Company/MOSL
Yes Bank is taking various knowledge initiatives in these industries by tying up with
government and international agencies in areas like advisory and research. We believe its
strategy to create a strong knowledge pool in the sunrise industries by working with various
participants like corporates, the government and international agencies would give it
significant headroom in this business, going forward.
30 November 2009 25
Yes Bank
Annexure II
30 November 2009 26
Yes Bank
Annexure III
BRANCH NETWORK: WELL PLANNED GROWTH IN BRANCHES FOLLOWING THE BUSINESS CENTERS
30 November 2009 27
Yes Bank
Annexure IV
30 November 2009 28
Yes Bank
ASSUMPTIONS (%)
30 November 2009 29
Yes Bank
RATIOS
VALUATION
30 November 2009 30
Yes Bank
30 November 2009 31
For more copies or other information, contact
Institutional: Navin Agarwal. Retail: Manish Shah
Phone: (91-22) 39825500 Fax: (91-22) 22885038. E-mail: reports@motilaloswal.com
Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd, 3rd Floor, Hoechst House, Nariman Point, Mumbai 400 021
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