Biodiesel Brazil 2009

World biodiesel markets

Dr Alan Bullion, F.O. Licht
Biofuel producers are currently going through a
rough patch. Why?

• Volatile feedstock and crude prices

• Higher production costs
• Sustainability and land use debates
• Food versus fuel controversy
• Ambiguous policies and mandates
EU biodiesel output grows, but at slower pace (EBB)
 Biodiesel Brazil 2009
US biodiesel output set to halve
 Biodiesel Brazil 2009
New Policy Developments

Europe's Council of Ministers has endorsed anti-dumping and

countervailing measures against unfair US biodiesel exports.
The conclusion of a case launched in early 2008, the majority
of ministers supported European Commission (EC) proposals
for definitive remedies, with duties ranging from EUR213 to
EUR409 a tonne and lasting five years. The regulations are
expected to be published in the Official Journal by July 12.

The Indian government cut the import tax on biodiesel on

July 1 to 2.5% from 7.5%. Biodiesel units are likely to import
more and increase their supplies to the market as a result.

Oil giant ExxonMobil plans to invest over US$600 mln in

Synthetic Genomics to make transport fuel from algae.
US biodiesel exports to EU on the rise (EBB)
Idle EU biodiesel production capacity grows: 276 plants open July 2009 (EBB)
Non-soy share of US biodiesel reaches 74% (May 2009), up from 42% (May 2008)
Biodiesel Brazil 2009
US biodiesel margins

EU biodiesel prices
(November 2007 -
January 2009)
Source: LMC International
 Biodiesel Brazil 2009
World output down, but capacity up
World biodiesel production
for 2009 is estimated at
• 12.5 mln tonnes, down
slightly from 12.7 mln
tonnes in 2008.

F.O. Licht now pegs current

biodiesel production
capacity at 37.9 mln
tonnes, compared with 33.9
mln tonnes at the end of
2008.
 Biodiesel Brazil 2009
World biodiesel output continues to climb
 Biodiesel Brazil 2009
EU biodiesel prices Nov 2007- Jan 2009
Global oil production may have already peaked (BP)
EU dependence on imported FSU diesel oil grows
 Jatropha plantings in Africa (hectares)

2008 2015* Projects**

Ethiopia 200 125,000 6

Tanzania 17,600 166,000 9

Malawi 4,500 226,000 12

Madagascar 35,700 500,000 13

Mozambique 7,900 170,000 12

Zambia 35,200 134,000 6

Cameroon 3,000 13,500 4

Ghana 2,000 600,000 3

*Expert country estimates ** Projects identified

Source: Global Market Study on Jatropha, GEXSI 2008
 Jatropha plantings in Asia (hectares)

2008 2015* Projects**

China 105,000 600,000 13

Philippines 3,750 1.1 million 9

Indonesia 75,000 5.2 million 12

Malaysia 1,700 57,000 6

Mynamar 850,000 4 million 1

India 407,000 1.9 million 20

*Expert country estimates ** Projects identified

Source: Global Market Study on Jatropha, GEXSI 2008
Jatropha plantings in Latin America (hectares)

2008 2015* Projects**

Honduras 300 10,000 2

Haiti 350 5,000 1

Colombia 1,000 100,000 2

Brazil 15,800 1.3 million 9

Peru 320 77,000 8

Costa Rica 10 40,000 1

Guatemala 650 15,000 2

Mexico 3,000 100,000 3

*Expert country estimates ** Projects identified

Source: Global Market Study on Jatropha, GEXSI 2008
 Biodiesel Brazil 2009
EU biodiesel imports rise sharply

• EU biodiesel imports in January/March 2009

amounted to 412,463 tonnes, up from 164,615
tonnes imported in the same period of 2008. Total
imports in Jan-Dec 2008 were 1.490 mln tonnes.
• Major origins in Q1 2009 were the US (381,220
tonnes vs. 157,637 tonnes; Indonesia (13,287
tonnes vs. 0); Argentina (4,979 tonnes vs. 2,958);
and Malaysia (4,881 tonnes vs. 32). US output in
Jan/May 2009 was 627,044 tonnes vs. 862,637.
UK biodiesel feedstocks dominated by rape and soy