The article examines four hypotheses about the loca- tion of the Indian cement industry: a) its location is not optimum, b) it is not evenly distributed throughout the country, c) it is becoming more and more dispersed over time, and d) recent changes are towards optimum loca- tion. These hypotheses are tested on the basis of various determinants of location and on two measures of location location quotient and coefficient of localization. The findings endorse all the four hypotheses. In particular, the location coefficient has declined from 0.53 in 1960 to 0.46 in 1965. Madras and Bihar were the leading states in cement production in 1947, but in 1971 leading states were Madras, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, and so on. This change seems to have been effected by market forces, such as profitability. The government could perhaps expedite this process through measures such as a suitable licencing policy and tax incentives. 6.5. Gupta is a professor in the Economics area at the Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad- His teaching and research interest is in Managerial Economics, Ap- plied Econometrics, and Project Evaluation and Invest- ment Decision. Kirit Patel is a research associate in the Economics area at the Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad. Decisions regarding industrial location have a unique place in the fields of industrial manage- ment and regional planning because such decisions have long-term implications for the health and well-being of an economy and be- cause they are almost irreversible. Most indus- tries involve huge investments, which generate cash flows over a long period of time and the history testifies that the success of an industry depends significantly upon the appropriateness of its location. High cost of transfer of heavy machines and the impossibility of adjustments in already established fixed capital such as land and buildings make location decisions irreversible in most industries. If region-wise demand and supply do not balance transport cost will bea significant compo- nent of cement price, for it is a bulky commodity. In India, average railway freight was Rs 23.55 per tonne of cement, i.e., about 30 per cent of the average ex-factory price, in 1965-66. This paper highlights the determinants of location, and measures and analyses the trends in the location of cement industry in India. The hypotheses tested are: I.The industry's location is not optimum. That is, locational advantage of a region is not indicated in that region's contri- bution to cement output in India. 2. It is not evenly distributed over the whole country. 3. Its concentration has declined over time. 4. Recent trend is towards optimum location, Factors Affecting Location The optimum location of an industry de- pends upon demand in relation to supply (market for its product), availability of raw-material.
Vikalpa, Vol.1, No.4, October 1976 27 production cost, distribution cost (transport cost in particular), prospects for profit, managements' regional interest, and government policy concern- ing regional development. It should be pointed out that all these factors are not mutually exclu- sive. Location A is better than location B for industry I if region A has a bigger market, greater availability of raw material, lower production cost, lower transport cost, greater prospects for profit, greater favour from managements' regional interest and/or greater encouragement from government than region B. This is a simple rule. However, in practice we do not find all fac- tors in favour of a particular location. In the real world, while some factors make a particular location favourable while other factors make it unfavourable. This makes the locational deci- sions difficult and significant. Moreover, some determinants of locational advantage may have conflicting demands in themselves. For example, government policy regarding location is governed by the twin objectives of balanced regional development and the optimum utilization of natural resources, and these too are often con- flicting. Theregional planners endeavour to influ- ence industrial location so as to be equitable to the backward regions in the short-run and to maximize social welfare in the long-run. In con- trast to this, the individual entrepreneurs may be guided by the profitability criterion in their locational decisions. Since the relevant data on transport cost, etc., are not published, it is not possible to work out the optimum location for the cement industry in India. However, an examination of demand- production data, availability of raw materials, production cost-profit data, management's interest, and government policy in this respect throw some light on relative locational advan- tage of different regions. Regional Demand and Supply The region-wise demand for, and capacity and production of cement in India in 1971, the latest year for which data are available, are pre- sented in Table 1. They indicate that demand is in excess of supply in the Eastern and the Northern regions, while quite the reverse is true for the Western and the Southern regions. An examination of the past data indicated that this trend has been prevailing for long. Thus, the market criterion alone would argue for expan- sion of cement industry in the Eastern and the Northern regions and for its contraction in Western and Southern regions. Availability of Raw Material The various determinants of the optimum location of a particular industry play varying role in the location of different industries. In the cement industry, availability of raw material and fuel, and transport cost are more significant than the other factors because cement is a weight losing and bulky product. Its weight losing nature argues for location near raw materials while bulkiness favours location near the mar- ket. Since Weber's (1929) material index (ratio of localized material to output) is more than 1.5 for cement, the net effect of these two factors favours nearness of raw-materials. As a result cement factories are, in fact, located in close proximity to the sources of raw materials. Most cement manufacturing units are established within a radius of 15 to 20 kilometers of limestone deposits. The raw materials required for cement are limestone, clay, and gypsum. Although limestone deposits and clay are available in fairly large quantities all over the country, proximity of railhead is essential for reducing the transporta- tion cost. The availability of gypsum may not affect location for its requirement is only about four per cent. Cement, in most plants in India, is manu- factured through the wet process and thus large quantities of water are needed. However, as water is available in good quantities throug- out our country, this does not affect location. The only important consideration seems to be the availability of coal since diesel, the alternative source of fuel, is considerably more expensi ve. The avai l abi l i t y of coal pul l s the industry towards Bengal and Bihar and, to some extent, Orissa, Andhra Pradesh, Maha- rashtra, and Madhya Pradesh.
28 Vikalpa Production Cost and Profit Prospects Cost for any industry is usually classified into fixed cost and Vdriable cost. Fixed cost includes cost of land, buildings, machines, etc., and variable cost comprises costs of raw materials, fuel, labour, transport, etc. Buildings and machines costs are about the same in diffe- rent regions. Land cost varies over regions but exerts no significant influence on locational deci- sions, for it is a small part of the total cost. Vari- able cost is significant because it is influenced by the availability of raw materials and labour, transport cost, etc. The cost-profit data for the cement industry in different regions, for which data are published, in the years 1947, 1955, 1960, and 1966, the latest year for which data are available, are provid- ed in Table 2. These data are presented in terms of percentages of gross ex-factory value of output. In other words, these numbers indicate the share in rupees of a particular cost item in gross output worth Rs. 100. For example, the value of materials consumed was Rs. 37.9 per Rs. 100 worth of gross output in Madras in 1947. The data in Table 2 indicate that while material cost was lower in Bihar than in Madras in all the years, quite the reverse was true about fuel cost. On the basis of these costs together, Madras had a slight advantage over Bihar. The locations! preference of Madras over Bihar is also reflected in the profit rate. Madras, among all the regions for which individual data are available, enjoyed the maximum profit in 1947 and 1955. Madras was second to Punjab in 1960, and fourth to Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, and Mysore in 1966, in terms of profitability. In 1966, Madya Pradesh had the lowest profit of 16 per cent. During 1960 to 1966 the profit rate incresed only marginally in Madras and Bihar and very significantly in Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh, and Mysore. This might have affected the location of this industry, but it is to be pointed out that Madras and Bihar were the two states which accounted for 70 per cent of the cement production in 1947 but that their share fell to 40 per cent in 1955 to 34 per cent in 1960 and to 30 per cent in 1966. This resulted from the disper- sion of the industry to other states for high profi- tability in these regions. Thus, the cost-profit data argue for greater dispersion of the industry and for more of it in regions such as Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, and Mysore. Management's Interest The choice of location of a new factory to a certain extent depends on the manage- ment's interest in a particular region. If the man- agement has country-wide industrial interest, perhaps this factor would not merit attention in location studies. However, if the management has regional or local industrial interest this factor becomes a decisive one. Both these kinds of management's interest are found in the Indian cement industry. On the one hand, we have Associated Cement Companies Ltd. (ACC) and Dalmia Cement (India) Ltd., whose intersts are country-wide. On the other hand, there are cement firms run by state governments, such as Andhra Cement, Madras Cement, and Orissa Cement, whose interests are limited to its development within their own territories. Since South India possesses more regional entrepreneurs willing to float cement factories at present, the Southern region continues to have more cement factories than other regions. Government Policy For quarrying of limestone, the cement industry has necessarily to depend on the govern- ment for lease terms. Besides, encouragement and facilities or discouragement and hindrance from government do exert their influence on location. In the early days, the then princely states encouraged the expansion of the cement industry in their territories. Thus, out of eleven factories existing in 1936 at the time of forma- tion of ACC, as many as five factories were in princely states and in case of one, viz., the Punjab, the Provincial Government was directly inter- ested in capital and management. Recently, the governments have evinced keener interest in developing the cement industry in industrially
Vol. 1, No.4, October 1976 29 backward states. This is facilitated through the policy of freight equalization. Under this policy, cement is sold at uniform price at all railway stations in the country. Recently, the govern- ment has decided to grant subsidies even for road transportation to districts having poor rail links. Since the various location determining factors do not argue consistently for a particular location, it is not possible to specify clearly the locational advantages of various regions for the cement industry. However, certain observa- tions can be made. In terms of a region's share in national output of cement, in 1971, Tamil Nadu (Madras) enjoyed the first position (18.72 per cent), Madhya Pradesh the second (14.25 per cent), Gujarat the third (11.28 per cent), Andhra Pradesh the fourth (10.80 per cent), Bihar the fifth (10.70 per cent), Mysore the sixth (10.27 per cent), Rajasthan the seventh (9.35 per cent), Orissa the eighth (4.41 percent), Maharashtra the ninth (3.10 per cent), and so on. This distribution of output is inconsistent with most of the determinants of location, including the criteria of demand-supply, the availability of raw material, and the production cost-profit. This suggests that the location of the cement industry in India is perhaps not the optimum. Measurement of Industrial Location In literature we find two measures of loca- tion, viz., the location quotient and the coeffi- cient of localization. These measures were first introduced by Florence (1948). Their compu- tation formulae and rules for location are ex- plained in the Appendix. The information in the Appendix shows that the number of workers employed in an industry is used as a measure of the demand for and supply of the product of that industry. The demand for cement can be linked with industrial develop- ment, and larger the number of industrial workers, the heavier is the industrial activity. Thus, the number of workers seems to be a good measure of demand. However, i ts use to indicate supply is questionable largely on the ground of varying capital and labour intensities in different industries. Provided the regions under study have a reasonable mix of labour and capital intensive .industries, this measure will be an appropriate one. In the absence of this, the location measures will be overestimated for the regions having a low proportion of labour intensive industries and they will be underesti- mated for the regions having a high proportion of labour intensive industries. Since labour and capital intensities differ greatly among regions, alternative measures of the demand for and supply of industrial products have been sug- gested. Among the alternative measures for produc- tive capacity and demand are value of fixed capital, value added, and ex-factory value of output. These are poor indicators of demand and they have limitations as measures of supply also. For example, value of fixed capital will be a poor indicator of productive capacity unless there is no idle capacity and prices of capital goods do not differ over regions. Furthermore, as with the number of workers, use of fixed capital might also give misleading results as some industries have higher capital-labour intensities than others. Nor is value added an appropriate measure, for relative prices of indus- trial inputs vary over regions causing variations in value added. Ex-factory value of output seems to be a good measure of productive capacity as it incorporates the regional price differences. Since there is no perfect measure of both demand for and supply of a product, in the computation which follows we have used all the four alternative proxy variables discussed above. This is desirable because it will indicate the sensitivity of location measurement to the choice of indicator and an average of the four alternative measures will perhaps provide a better measure than any one of them. Present Location and Past Trends Formulae (1) and (2) of the Appendix were used to compute the location quotient and the coefficient of localization respectively for a
30 Vikalpa few selected years, using all the four alternative indicators of the demand for and supply of cement in India: (a) number of workers employed, (b) value of fixed capital, (c) gross ex-factory value of output, and (d) val ue added. The data were drawn from the Central Statistical Organi- zation's publications, viz.. Census of Manufac- turing Industries (CMI) and Annual Survey of Industries (ASI). The coverage in terms of the percentage of total units which provided data is different for different regions and in different years for data pertaining to all industries. How- ever, it is the same for the cement industry. There- fore, to make the results comparable, figures of all industries were adjusted to the coverage. The underlying assumption behind the adjustment procedure is that the uncovered group of facto- ries has the same size distribution as that of the covered group, size being defined in terms of number of workers employed, value of fixed capital, ex-factory value of output, or value added. The computed results for the location quotient are provided in Table 3 and those for the location coefficient are presented later in Tables 4 and 5. As expected, the location quotient (LQ) is subject to the base variable used in computa- tion. For axample, LQ for the cement industry in Madras in 1947 is 2.64 if the number of wor- kers is assumed to represent the demand for and supply of cement. It is 2.60 if value of fixed capital is used, 2.14 if ex-factory value of out- put is used and 2.22 if value added is used as the base variable. A careful study of the results in Table 3 would indicate that no definite con- clusions can be drawn about the over or under estimation of LQ by one base variable in compa- rison to that by other base variables. This means that the choice of the base variable is significant in the study of industrial location. This article does not aim to enter into this [definitional debate and therefore it only provides empirical inputs for those who wish to study this defini- tional problem. The necessary data for computation of LQ are not available for any period after 1966. Therefore, present location means location in 1966. The location quotient is found to be greater than unity in all the eight regions on the basis of all the four alternative variables in 1966. This indicates that all these eight regions have more than their average share of the cement indus- try. The exact value of this coefficient varies between 1.07 in Gujarat on the basis of ex-fac- tory value of output and 3.49 in Andhra Pradesh on the basis of value added. A careful study of the numbers in Table 3 reveals that Madhya Pradesh ranks the first, Andhra Pradesh the second and Gujarat the last in terms of the con- centration of cement industry as indicated by the LQ computed on the basis of all the four alterna- tive variables. Thus, we conclude that at present (1965 or 1966) cement industry has more con- centration in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan than elsewhere and less concentration in Gujarat than elsewhere. About the locational trends over time, the results in Table 3 indicate that the concentration both in Madras and Bihar has declined between 1947 and 1966, the decline being more pro- nounced in Bihar than in Madras. Concentration also declined in Madhya Pradesh, Punjab, and Rajasthan between 1960 and 1965 or 1966. No unambiguous increase in any region's con- centration between 1947 or 1960 to 1965 or 1966 is evident. However, concentration seems to have increased in Gujarat during 1960-66. This might have been a result of the recent availability of oil fields there. In other regions, viz., Andhra Pradesh and Mysore, there is more evidence for a decline in concentration than an increase in concentration over time. Thus, the concentration in the cement industry in general has declined over time. In other words, there was a more even distribution of cement industry in India in 1966 than in 1947. In short, Madras and Bihar were the two regions commanding a significant share of the industry in 1947-50, and in 1965-66 dominance was divided among eight regions. The country-wide concentration of an industry is also examined on the basis of the coefficient of localization. It has been comput- ed for the years 1960 and 1965, and the results are given in Tables 4 and 5, respectively. The localization coefficient, like location quotient,
Vol.1, No.4, October 1976 31 is found to be sensitive to the indicator of the productive capacity and demand. For 1960, it varies between 0.4627 and 0.5763, and for 1965 it varies between 0.4486 and 0.4782 depending upon the indicator used. This coeffi- cient being quite different from zero indicates that the cement industry is not evenly distributed in India. The location coefficient, computed on the basis of any of the four alternative variables but one, has declined between 1960 and 1965. Furthermore, the arithmetic mean of the four alternative location coefficients for 1960 comes to 0.5298 and that for 1965 comes to 0.4621. Thus, on the basis of the location coefficient also, we can concludethatthe location of cement industry in India has become more dispersed in 1965 than it was in 1960. The past studies, covering earlier periods than ours, have also found the same trend. Mehta (1955) found a location coefficient in Indian cement industry of 0.83 in 1925, 0.74 in 1935 and 0.48 in 1945. Hingorani (1965) computed this coefficient at 0.44 in 1951 and 0.46 in 1959. These results are not inconsistent with our findings, for we have a slightly different regional classification and also because we have computed the coefficient on the basis of four alternative measures as against their single indicator of the demand for and supply of cement. We have also adjusted the data for industry coverage, which they do not seem to have done. Locations! Trends and the Optimum Location Hitherto we have seen that the location of cement industry is becoming more and more dispersed over time. Furthermore, the concen- tration has increased in Gujarat while it has decreased in the other seven regions, for which data are available. The decline is more pro- nouncedin Madrasand Biharthan inotherregions. Cement production, which was dominated only by two regions, viz., Madras and Bihar, in 1947, is now spread over various regions to balance the demand for and supply of this bulky commodity. These trends are welcome, for Gujarat is now more suitable than it was before for the industry due to the availability of oil-fields, and Madras and Bihar do not enjoy any significant locational advantage over other regions. The criteria of the availability of raw- material and cost-profit and government policy argue for greater dispersion of the industry. The trend in cement industry location during 1947 through 1966 is towards the optimum. The rate at which the present location is converging towards the optimum location can be speeded up through measures such as an appropriate licensing policy, government development plans, and railway transport facilities. Conclusion If the quantitative data on all the determi- nants of location of an industry are available, the principal component method can be used to prioritise various regions according to suitability. This could have been done both from the national and company's point of view and if results were available, mechanisms for reconciliation in case of conflict could have been investigated. In the absence of detailed data such a study is not yet possible. The pre- sent location of the Indian cement industry is not the optimum. The study of the present location and past trends has indicated that the cement industry is not evenly distributed in the country and that it is changing towards greater dispersion, which is consistent with the optimum location. In particular, the concentration is declining significantly over time in Madras and Bihar, and that it is increasing in Gujarat. While Madras and Bihar were the leading states in cement production in 1947, the leading states in 1971 were Madras, Madhya Pradesh, Guja- rat, and so on. This change in location seems to have been influenced by market forces, such as profitability. The government could perhaps take steps such as a suitable licensing policy, and tax incentives to expedite the process. References Florence. S. Investment, Location and Size of Plant. Cam- bridge : Cambridge University Press, 1948. Hingorani, N. L. "Location of Cement Industry in India," Indian Journal of Commerce, XVIII (63Part II), 1965, pp. 19-32. Mehta, M. M. Structure of Indian Industries. Bombay : Popular Book Depot, 1955. Weber, Alfred Theory of Location of Industries. Translated with an Introduction and Notes by Carl J. Friedrich. Chicago : University of Chicago Press, 1969.
32 Vikalpa \ \ \ Table 1 Demand, Capacity and Production of Cement in 1971 (Lakh tonnes)
Region Estimated Actual Actual Demand Capacity Production Western 39.45 53.87 42.83 Eastern 30.38 30.06 23.35 Northern 51.07 30.91 23.21 Southern 40.52 68.01 60.01 Total 161.42 182.85 149.40 Source ; Cement Manufacturers' Association (1972) : Repl i es to Questi onnai re submi tted to the Tariff Commission. Table 2 Cost-Profit Data as Percentages of Gross Ex-Factory Value of Output (Percentages) Material Cost Fuel Cost Depreciation Cost Wages, Salaries, Ben., etc. Profit Region 1947 1955 1960 1966 1947 1955 1960 1966 1947 1955 1960 1966 1947 1955 1960 1966 1947 1955 1960 1966 Madras 37.9 30.2 36.7 37.8 27.0 19.0 26.6 27.2 5.7 8.1 6.0 4.0 21.8 10.9 10.6 7.9 7.3 36.7 18.5 19.1 Bihar 43.0 40.1 46.5 45.6 22.8 15.8 20.3 19.0 9.1 6.7 5.9 3.7 21 9 12.7 8.5 10.6 3.1 24.5 14.3 16.6 Bombay 35.7 24.2 12.1 12.3 16.7 Andhra Pradesh 41.8 36.9 22.6 21.4 9.8 6.5 10.5 8.2 12.7 23.5 Gujarat 40.0 30.3 31.5 31.1 6.4 5.9 12.5 8.4 6.1 21.3 Madhya Pradesh 33.2 36.8 25.0 22.0 12.5 9.5 12.3 10.4 ;4.5 16.0 Mysore 30.6 33.7 32.8 24.2 10.8 6.6 9.5 8.6 1 3.4 21.2 Punjab 31.0 26.0 6.2 10.1 23.9 Rajasthan
42.0
24.6
7.1
9.7
15.0
Source: Central Stati sti cal Organi sati on : Census of Manufacturi ng Industri es and Annual Survey of Industri es (vari ous i ssues) Notes : 1. Blanks indicate that data are not available. 2. Profi t data are obtai ned by subtracti ng wages, sal ari es, benefi ts, etc. from val ue added. Table 3 The Location Quotient in Indian Cement Industry Location Quotient on the Basis of Region Number of workers employed Value of fixed capital Ex-factory value of output Value added
Note : Blanks indicate non-availability of data. *The location quotients for 1965 are computed using 1960 figures for the cement industry and 1965 figures for all industries. \ Table 4 The Coefficient of Localization in Indian Cement Industry in 1960 Employment (No. of persons employed) Value of fixed capital Gross ex-factory value of output Value added Region Regional Propor- tion in Cement Industry Regional Proportion in all industries Deviation Regional Propor- tion in Cement Industry Regional Propor- tion in all industries Devia tion Regional Propor- tion in Cement industry Regional Propor- tion in all industries Deviation Reg. Pro. in Cement Industry Reg. Deviation Pro. in all Industries 1. Andhra Pradesh .1034 .0487 .0547 .1383 .0394 .0989 .0952 .0359 .0593 .0889 .0267 .0622 2. Bihar .1377 .0583 .0794 .1639 .1572 .0067 .1784 .0794 .0990 .1633 .0715 .0918 3. Gujarat .1157 .0963 .0194 .0917 .0737 .0180 .1205 .0850 .0355 .0904 .1008 -.0104 4. Madhya Pradesh .1151 .0299 .0852 .1176 .0324 .0852 .0859 .0249 .0610 .0929 .0244 .0685 5. Madras .1534 .0723 .0811 .1145 .0585 .0560 .1598 .0724 .0874 .1874 .0730 .1144 6. Mysore .0855 .0358 .0487 .0946 .0332 .0614 .0775 .0282 .0493 .0716 .0295 .0421 7. Punjab .0641 .0222 .0419 .0385 .0215 .0170 .0754 .0285 .0469 .1035 .0191 .0844 8. Rajasthan .1324 .0150 .1174 .1353 .0158 .1195 .1238 .0099 .1139 .1230 .0101 .1129 9. Kerala, Orissa, and Uttar Pradesh .0927 .1331 -.0404 .1056 .1127 -.0071 .0835 .1138 -.0303 .0790 .0980 -.0190 10. Rest of India 0 .4874 -.4874 0 .4556 -.4556 0 .5220 -.5220 0 .5469 -.5469 Total Deviations
.5278
.4627
.5523
.5763 Coefficient of Localization
-.5278 5278
-.4627 4627
-.5523 5523
-.5763 5763
Appendix Measures of Industrial Location Location Quotient: Florence defined the location quo- ti ent for an i ndustry i n a regi on as the rati o of the regional proportion of workers employed in that industry to regional proportion of workers employed in all indus- tries. Notationally, it is expressed as
Given the industry-wise and region-wise data on employment, location quotients can be easily computed with the aid of formula 1. The numerator of the location quotient is the share of a region in total employment in an industry in the country. The denominator is the share of a region intotal employment in all industries in the country. Thus, if employment is the measure of demand for and supply of the product of an in- dustry, the location quotient provides a measure of the disper- sion of that industry. In particular, if the location quotient of an industry equals one for all the regions, then that industry is evenly distributed throughout the country. If it is higher than one for a particular region, then that region has more of that industry than its average share, and vice versa. The larger the location quotient than one. the greater is the concentration or localization of the corresponding industry in the corresponding region, and vice versa. Coefficient of Localization : The coefficient of localiza- tion for a particular industry in the country is defined as the sum of the positive or negative deviations of the regional proportion of workers employed in that industry from the corresponding regional proportion of workers employed in all industries. Mathematically, it is defined as
A comparison of formulae (1) and (2) would reveal that they use the same two variables but the former takes their ratio, while the latter takes their difference and sum their absolute values over rigions and then divide the same by two. Thus the coefficient of localiza- tion for an industry aggregates the regional location quotients in a single figure. Therefore, it provide a measure of the overall distribution of the corresponding industry over the country as a whole. A location coeffi- cient of zero in an industry indicates that the over- concentration of that industry in some regions is just balanced by under-concentration of the same in other regions. A non-zero value of the location coefficient means a lop-sided regional development of the corresponding industry. The larger the value of this coefficient, the greater is the unevenness of distribution of that industry in the country.
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