BM0011 Final Exam Paper 29 August 2014

3 sections THEORY & CALCULATION

(weightage = 60%)


Section A (20 marks Compulsory)
5 short questions-All Topics

Section B( 40 marks Compulsory)
2 Questions - 1 Topics A & B Data presentation and analysis; 1 -
TOPIC E NORMAL DISTBN.

Section C(40 marks-Choose 2 out of 3 Questions)
1 Question on Topic C Probability
1 Question on Topic D Binomial and Poisson
1 Question on Topic F - Topic F - Sampling Distribution
STUDENTS CAN REFER TO lecture notes, TUTORIALS AND PAST EXAM PAPERS TO
GET AN IDEA OF THE QUESTIONS ASKED AND TOPICS COVERAGE IN VARIOUS
SECTIONS
TOPIC A &B - Data Presentation & Analysis
Compulsory question
1. THEORY: ALL THE BASIC CONCEPTS POPULATION,
SAMPLE, PARAMETER, STATISTIC, QUANTITATIVE,
QUALITATIVE, DISCRETE, CONTINUOUS

2. SYMMETRIC, RIGHT SKEWED AND LEFT SKEWED
DISTRIBUTION WITH REASONS

3. CALCULATION, MEAN, MEDIAN AND MODE
UNGROUPED/ GROUPED data

4. CALCULATION : RANGE, IQR, and standard deviation

5. Graphs with tables Histogram and ogives

TOPIC C - Probability


1. DEFINITIONS - THEORY QUESTIONS Sample Space, Mutually
Exclusive, Independent events, etc.

3. CALCULATION USING MULTIPLICATION AND ADDITION RULES
Refer fully worked examples in the lecture notes and tutorial questions

TOPIC D - Discrete Probability distributions

1. CHARACTERISTICS OF BINOMIAL AND POISSON
application

2. CALCULATION OF MEAN AND STD.DEVIATION FOR
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIN, BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION and
POISSION DISTRIBUTION

3. CALCULATION OF BINOMIAL/POISSON DISTRIBUTION.


Binomial Distributions refer to tutorial
questions for revision
Each experiment/trial has 2 outcomes success
(p) or failure (q or 1-p)

Probability of r successes in n trials P(x=r)
P(X) =
!
! !

OR P(X) =

Mean = =
Standard Deviation =
Poisson Probability Distribution - refer to
tutorial questions for revision

Number of events that occur in an interval

P(X) =

!


=
e= 2.71828

For Poisson distribution, the mean and standard
deviation is the same as the events occur at very
small intervals
THUS Variance,
2
=
And standard Deviation = or

TOPIC E Normal Distribution

Need to know Z table and expressing Probability equations
P(X>..) P(X<)or P(a<x<b)

Z score
TOPIC F Sampling Distribution
Topic C sampling distribution
Need to know & understand Central Limit Theorem, test for finite or infinite
population if Population SIZE N is given using n/N, whether > or < 0.05

Z score formula


& standard error for infinite/large population
TOPIC A & B Revision Questions Worked out EXAMPLE covered in
tutorial
1. A sample of twenty five students marks in a Statistics ICA is given below:
65 70 59 65 67 68 63 62 63 70 72 66 63 66 66 62 70 58 60 61 59 59
67 71 65
FORM a frequency distribution consisting of 5 classes for the above data

Step 1 - arrange the data in ascending
order
58 59 59 59 60 62 62 62 63 63 63
65 65 65 66 66 66 67 67 68
70 70 70 71 72
Step 2 - Given, No of classes, k
=5
Step 3 - class width, W =( L-S)/K= (72-58)/5= 2.8, round up to 3
Step 4 & 5 draw frequency table
Student
marks Frequency (f)
58-60 5
61-63 6
64-66 6
67-69 3
70-72 5
TOTAL 25
Student
marks Frequency (f)
Class
boundary
Class
mark
(midpt)
Relative
frequency
Cumulative
frequency
58-60 5 57.5-60.5 59 0.2000 0.2000
61-63 6 60.5-63.5 62 0.2400 0.4400
64-66 6 63.5-66.5 65 0.2400 0.6800
67-69 3 66.5-69.5 68 0.1200 0.8000
70-72 5 69.5-72.5 71 0.2000 1.0000
TOTAL 25 1.0000
Frequency histogram
0.0000
0.0500
0.1000
0.1500
0.2000
0.2500
0.3000
57.5-61.5 61.5-63.5 63.5-66.5 66.5-69.5 69.5-72.5
F
r
e
q
u
e
n
c
y

o
f

s
t
u
d
e
n
t
s

m
a
r
k
s
Student marks
frequency Histogram of student
marks
If polygon, just a line chart joining the midpoints

Student
marks <
Less than
Cumulative
Frequency (f)
58 0
61 5
64 11
67 17
70 20
73 25
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Less than Cumulative Frequency (f) Ogive
Less than Cumulative Frequency
(f)
Student
marks Frequency (f)
Class
mark
(midpt),
m fm
Cumulative
frequency
58-60 5 59 295 17405 5
61-63 6 62 372 23064 11
64-66 6 65 390 25350 17
67-69 3 68 204 13872 20
70-72 5 71 355 25205 25
TOTAL 25 1616 104896
Mean = 1616/25
64.64 marks
Mode = the value that occurs most frequently. In this instance, there are 2 modes
Mode = 62 and 65
Median class =n/2 =25/2 =12.5th item
so, in the 64-66 class
Median =
=64.75 marks
Variance=
standard deviation, s =

=
) (
2
i
f
CF
n
L
(
(
(

+
64 + [

2
( )
( )
1
2
2
2

E
E
=
n
n
fx
fx
s
=

2
= 18.24 marks

2
= 4.2708
Revision Quiz in class
Measures of Central Tendency
The middle value in a data set is called the median

The most frequently occurring value in a data set is
called the mode.

The average value in a data set is called the
mean.

Measures of Dispersion
Range in a data set= largest value- smallest
value

Interquartile Range= Q3 - Q1
Revision Quiz in class
Skewness of a data set
For a data set, mean > median> mode, the
data set is said to be skewed to the right. It
contains some extreme high / low outliers.
For a data set, mean < median< mode, the
data set is said to be skewed to the left. It
contains some extreme high / low outliers.


Revision questions to try yourself
1. Classify the following as quantitative or qualitative variables:
a) Colour of cars
b) Length of time to move through a maze
c) Classification of police administrations as city, country or state
d) The rating given to pizza in a taste test : poor, good or excellent
e) Number of married respondents in a survey

2. Classify the following as descriptive or inferential statistics:
AC Neilsen uses data from a sample of viewers to give estimates of average
television viewing time per week for all Singaporeans
a) The Singapore DEPT of statistics publish the leading causes of deaths in
year 2012. the estimates are based on a sample of death certificates.
b) The number of votes received by Candidate A in the last student union
office bearer election
c) The PSI index at 12noon on 25 June 2013.

3. Classify the following as sample or population:
a) All diabetics in Singapore
b) 374 individuals selected for a MediaCorp news poll
c) All owners of Toyota cars in Singapore
d) The registered voters in Ang Mo Kio GRC
e) 220 participants in a health study last month

More Revision Practice Questions if you want to try or you can get other past
year papers on Blackboard
2. The following table shows the medicine sold by a pharmacy to 30 patients in
a week.






Sale of medicine ($) Number of patients (f)
21-27 2
28-34 4
35-41 7
42-48 8
49-55 5
59-62 4
Compute
(i) the class boundary
(ii) Class mark
(iii) Relative Frequency
(iv) Cumulative relative frequency
TOPIC C PROBABILITY REVISION QUESTIONS in class practice
TOPIC C PROBABILITY REVISION QUESTIONS in class
TT HH
TH
HT
ANS
(a) S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}
(b )
c) P( one head) = P(TH) + P(HT) =0.25 +0.25 = 0.5
Revision in class
Answer next page
ANS:
(a) Empirical or experiment since it can be tested
(b) Classical, since probability is known in advance
(c) Classical, since probability is known in advance
(d) Subjective, based on someones opinion

Revision questions for self practice:
Determine if each of the following events are mutually exclusive
events?

Answer next page
ANS:
(a) NOT mutually exclusive,
(b) Not mutually exclusive
(c ) YES
(d) NOT
Revision questions for self practice:
AT a semiconductor plant, 60% of workers are skilled, 80% of the workers
are full time, 90% of the skilled workers are full time.
(a) What is the probability that a an employee selected at random is a skilled full
time employee?
(b) What is the probability that an employee selected at random is a skilled worker
or a full time worker?
(c ) What percentage of full time workers are skilled?


Revision questions for self practice:
AT a semiconductor plant, 60% of workers are skilled, 80% of the workers
are full time, 90% of the skilled workers are full time.
(a) What is the probability that a an employee selected at random is a skilled full
time employee?
(b) What is the probability that an employee selected at random is a skilled worker
or a full time worker?
(c ) What percentage of full time workers are skilled?


P (S) = 0.6, P (F)= 0.8, P(F I S) =0.9

P( S and F) = P(S) x P(F I S) = 0.6 x 0.9 = O.54
P(S or F) = P(S) + P(F) P (S and F) = 0.6 + 0.8 -0.54 = 0.86
P(S I F) = P( S and F)/P(F) = 0.54/0.8 = 0.675


Promoted No Yes
No 350 80
Yes 50 20
Minority
Revision questions for self practice:
Question:
The table below classifies the 500 members of a police department according
to their status and their promotional status during the past year.

(a) Find the probability that a randomly selected individual from the police
dept is a minority
(b) Find the probability that a random selected individual was promoted last
year
(c )Find the probability that the selected officer is not a minority and was not
promoted
(d) Find the probability that the selected officer is a minority and was
promoted
(e) Is Being a Minority and getting promoted mutually exclusive?

Ans: (a) 0.2 (b) 0.14 (c ) 0.70 (d) 0.04
Minority
Promoted No Yes Total
No 350 80 430
Yes 50 20 70
Total 400 100 500
(a) P(Minority) = 100/500 0.2
(b) P(Promoted)= 70/500 0.14
( c ) P (Not M and not P)= 350/500 0.7
(d) P( M and P) = 20/500 0.04
( e) Not mutually exclusive, as there are 20 minorities that are promoted or P(M and P) is not equal to 0
ANSWER:

TOPIC D Discrete , Binomial and Poisson Distribution refer to Past year papers
On BB for revision questions

TOPIC E & F refer following pages for revision
Revision short topic D standard normal distribution (Z) questions
Find the value of c in each of the following probability statements.
Support your answers with appropriate diagrams.
(i) P (Z>c)=0.88
(ii) P (Z<-1.21)=c
(iii) P (c<Z<2.21)=0.331

Solution: refer next page
Normal Distribution Revision short questions
Find the value of c in each of the following probability statements. Support your answers with appropriate diagrams.
(i) P (Z>c)=0.88
(ii) P (Z<-1.21)=c
(iii) P (c<Z<2.21)=0.331

Solution:
Sampling Distribution Revision question

The net weight of cans of salmon is normally distributed with a mean of
60.5 grams and a standard deviation of 1.8 grams. An officer from
CASE selected 36 cans for testing. Calculate the probability that the
mean net weight is less than 59.7 grams.


Solution: refer to next page
Solution
QUESTION 12 ( PAGE 33 lecture notes) - Binomial tutorial questions done
in class previously


(a) X= random variable = no of cars with engine malfunction; follows a binomial
distribution with n= 10, p=0.02, q=0.98

(i) P(X=3) =10

3
(0.02)
3
(0.98)
7
= 0.0008

(ii) P(X=0) = 10

(0.02)

(0.98)

= 0.8171

(iii) Mean no of cars that will not have engine malfunction = np =10 x 0.98 =9.8
cars

S= = 100.020.98 = 0.196 cars

QUESTION 13 ( PAGE 33 lecture notes) Poisson tutorial questions
X= no of complaints in MacDonald restaurant with
=

= 1
For 3 days, , =

Using formula P(X) =

!

(i) P(X=0) =
3
0
(2.72)
3
!
= 0.0498

(ii) In a 5 day week, = 5
Expected number of complaints = mean x 4 weeks = x4 = 5 x 4 = 20
complaints



Normal & Sampling Distribution -Revision Question 1

2011/12 Semester 1 Semestral Exam Q8
Question 8
The owner of the popular Koi Bubble Tea chain of shops has received complaints that
some cups of bubble tea contain less tea than usual. To maintain the reputation of his
shops, he conducts a check on all cups of bubble tea sold and finds that the average
amount of bubble tea per cup is 550ml. The standard deviation is 25ml. Given that the
amount of bubble tea per cup follows a Normal distribution,

(a) Calculate the percentage of cups that contain more than 500ml of bubble tea.

(8 marks)

(b) Calculate the amount of bubble tea per cup for the fullest 20% of the cups of bubble
tea sold.

(5 marks)
(c) Compute the probability that a random sample of 25 cups has an average amount of
less than 545 ml.
(7 marks)



Answer
Question 8
(a)
X = Amount of bubble tea per cup [1]
X ~ N (550, 25
2
) Z ~ N (0, 1)
[1]

P(X > 500) =? [1]

For X = 500, Z =(500 - 550)/25 = -2 [1]
P(X >500) =P (Z>-2)
= 0.5 +0.4772 [1]
=0.9772
[1]
=97.72%
[1]









-2
[1]
500
0
Z
X
550
(b) P(X >?) = 0.20
From the table, Z= 0.84 [2]
(X -550) /25 = 0.84 [1]
X = 571ml [1]







________________________________________________________________________________________
(c) X ~ N (550, 25
2
) [1]
[1]
[1]
P ( <545) =? [1]
For =545, Z= (545 550)/5 = -1 [1]
P ( < 545) = P (Z < -1)
= 0.5 - 0.3413
=0.1587 [1]







) , ( ~
2
x x
N x
3
36
18

n
x

X
X
X
550
x
[1]
0.20
0.84
?
0
Z
550
X
5
25
25


-1
[1]
545
0
Z
550

X
Revision questions self practice
2011/12 Semester 1 Supplementary Exam Q8
Question 1

The Willy Wonky Candy Company has produced a new chocolate bar called Amazingly
Good. To ensure that quality is maintained and Amazingly Good chocolate bars meet the
minimum weight requirement, the company conducts a check on the chocolate bars
manufactured by the factory. The average weight of the bars is 115g and the standard
deviation is 12g. Given that the weight of the chocolate bars follows a Normal distribution,

(a) Calculate the percentage of chocolate bars that weigh less than 100g.

(b) Calculate the weight of the lightest 15% of the chocolate bars.

(c) Compute the probability that a random sample of 12 bars has an average weight of
more than 105g.


Answer
a Ans =10.56%
(b ) X = 102.52 grams
(c) Ans = 0.9981











Revision question 2 self practice

In recent years, students gave feedback that they did not have sufficient time to
complete a university entrance examination. The duration of the examination was 2
hours. The chief examiner wanted to investigate the validity of the feedback. It was
found that the average time taken by students to complete the examination was 1
hour 30 minutes. The standard deviation was 12 minutes. Assume that the time
taken to complete the examination follows a normal distribution.



(a) Calculate the percentage of students who took more than 2 hours to
complete the examination.

(7 marks)


(b) From your answer in part (a), explain if the feedback by students was valid.

(2 marks)


(c) Calculate the minimum time required by the slowest 15% of the students.

(5 marks)


(d) Compute the probability that a random sample of 10 students took more than
an average of 85 minutes to complete the examination.

(6 marks)
Answers

(a) =0.62%
(b) The claim is invalid since only 0.62% of the students have insufficient
time to complete the exam.
(c) X = 102.48 minutes
(d) =0.9066




Revision Question 3 self practice


A city mayor wants to assess the effect of the economic slowdown on the average
household income in the city in order to come up with appropriate unemployment
benefits for the households. It is known that the average annual household income in
the city is $50000 and the standard deviation is $5000. A random sample of 50
households is selected.


(a) Compute the probability that the sample mean household income is between
$48000 and $51000.

(9 marks)



(b) Calculate the probability that the sample mean household income is less than
$45000.

(5 marks)



(c) The city mayor will increase the unemployment benefits for households if
there is a higher than 5% chance that the sample average household income
is less than $45000. Explain if the mayor should increase the unemployment
benefits.
(3 marks)



(d) The advisor of the mayor feels that a larger sample size is necessary for the
above computation. Explain if the sample size needs to be increased.

(3 marks)
Answers

(a) Ans
=0.9184

(b) ANs =0

(c) Should not increase unemployment benefits[1] since P( <45000 )=0
(d) A larger sample size is not necessary for central limit theorem (CLT)to
apply, n30



X
Revision Question 4

With the help of appropriate diagrams, find the value of b in the following probability
statements.


(a) P ( Z < 0.64 ) = b


(b) P ( Z > b) = 0.64


(c) P(b < Z < 1)=0.64


Question 3 Answers



(a) P ( Z < 0.64 ) = b
B= 0.7389


(b) P ( Z > b) = 0.64
b= - 0.36


(c) P(b < Z < 1)=0.64

b= - 0.84