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2014

Muhammad Amjad Islam 57678 Page 1

POPULATION DATA OF THE PROJECT:

The population for my project study is those companies that produce cement and are listed in

KSE 100 index. Those companies are listed under Construction and Materials (Cement) sector.

Sample size:

From Karachi Stock Exchange website a list of companies were obtained which are listed under

Construction and Materials (Cement) sector. A list of 37 companies was found. Since the

population of the paper includes those companies which produce cement and are listed in KSE

100 index, those companies which do not produce cement were removed from the list. After

the removal of non-cement producing companies, a list of 21 companies were found. The

sample size of this paper will be consisting of five companies from cement industry. For the

data analysis, since the data source is secondary, I will be using the financial reports of those

companies from 2000-2014.

1 Attock

2 Best way

3 Central Forest

4 Cheerat

5 Dadabhoy

6 Dee wan

7 D.G.K.

8 Dandoot

Determinant of Free Cash Flows Impact upon Financial Performance of

cement industry of Pakistan

2014

Muhammad Amjad Islam 57678 Page 2

9 Fuji

10 Fecto

11 Flyings.

12 Gharibwal

13 Javedan Corporation

14 Kohat

15 Lafarge Pak.

16 Lucky

17 Maple Leaf

18 Pioneer Cement

19 Power

20 Thataa

21 Zeal Pak.

Hence, the following five companies will be used as sample of the study:

Symbolic representation Name of the company Market value

ACPL ATTOCK CEMENT PVT LTD. 114,522,468

CHCC CHERAT CEMENT COMPANY 105,138,103

DGKC D.G KHAN CEMENT COMPANY 438,119,097

Determinant of Free Cash Flows Impact upon Financial Performance of

cement industry of Pakistan

2014

Muhammad Amjad Islam 57678 Page 3

FCCL FAUJI CEMENT COMPANY LTD 1,331,115,839

KOHC KOHAT CEMENT COMPANY 154,508,688

ANALYSIS TECHNIQUE:

To analyze and formulate the Determinants for free cash flows impacts upon profitability of selected

companies I have decided to use ordinary Least Square regression will be applied. Firm value

(profitability) is dependent variable; Dividend, Manufacturing (labor cost), interest rate, and corporate

tax has been employed as one of the determinants of profitability

SAMPLING TECHNIQUES:

The techniques I have used to evaluate my project is Random Sample Sampling, of Probability Sampling

technique.

Since the researcher has access to the list of the population, this sampling technique is found most

appropriate here.

REASONS:

The main reason behind using the Random Sample Sampling, of Probability Sampling method is

easy to reduce complexity of the project. Additionally, it will reduce biasness in selection of

sample from the population, and produce more reliable results.

INSTRUMENT:

The sources that I have selected for my studies include; research papers, on Dividend, financial

leverage size of industry and corporate tax. Beside this, I have used companys official annual

reports and ms excel calculation of each individual variable to put valuable data on SPSS results.

VALIDATION OF THE INSTRUMENTS:

Determinant of Free Cash Flows Impact upon Financial Performance of

cement industry of Pakistan

2014

Muhammad Amjad Islam 57678 Page 4

The data which I have gathered from various websites are legally formal and authentic sources as

involved in their financial statements report.

Dependent variable:

Y

i

=Firm value (profitability)

Independent variable:

Firm value is dependent variable; Dividend, corporate tax, interest rate, and size of the

company in term of market capitalization are Independent variables in this research and are

calculated by the following equation.

Y

i

=

1

+

2

X

2i

+

3

X

3i

+

4

X

4i

+ B

5

X

5i

Where

1 = Intercept

B2X2i = Dividend

B3X3i = labor cost

B4X4i = corporate tax

B5X5i = Interest rate

Dividend Yield:

The dividend yield variable will be calculated by sum of all the annual cash dividends part of net

income distributed among common stock holders.

Labor cost:

Determinant of Free Cash Flows Impact upon Financial Performance of

cement industry of Pakistan

2014

Muhammad Amjad Islam 57678 Page 5

Labor cost, can be categorized as direct and indirect cost, is the total of monetary amount paid

to employees, which also includes the employee benefits cost. Direct costs, it is as, the amount

paid to the labors for making a physical product, as an example, workers on assembly line. On

the other hand, in direct cost is the amount of wages paid to the support labor, for example the

office staff, who dont take work in the operation area.

Interest rate:

Interest rate can be defined as the additional amount, charged by a lender to a borrower, on

the principal amount. Interest rates are mainly charge on annual basis, which is known as

annual percentage rate (APR). Inflation rate is directly proportional to the inflation rate of the

economy, which, subsequently affect the profitability of the firm.

Corporate Tax Rate:

levy placed on the profit of a firm, with different rates used for different levels of profits. A

corporation has to pay corporate tax, for a given taxable period, usually one year, against the

profit it has earned during that period. They are generally applied to companies' operating

earnings, after expenses such as COGS, SG&A and depreciation have been deducted from

revenues.

INTERPRETATION AND RESULT

HYPOTHESIS #1

TAXATION EFFECT:

The regression analysis is used to achieve the result of a paper by testing the entire set of

variables. For this paper, the dependent variable, Profitability is tested with the independent

Determinant of Free Cash Flows Impact upon Financial Performance of

cement industry of Pakistan

2014

Muhammad Amjad Islam 57678 Page 6

variable Corporate Tax. After entering the data in SPSS and running the regression tool I have

received the following Descriptive Statistics table.

From the above table I have come to conclusion that Mean of Profitability, Corporate Tax, are

13.9773 respectively. And as so the Std. Deviation of above variables, in the sequence as

mentioned, is 14063. This gives us the conclusion that the data is equally distributed and taken

from random sampling technique..

The above table shows the summary of regression analysis. Here in this table we have R as .862,

which shows a relation between the independent variables, corporate tax, but it suggests that

they have significant impact on the dependent variable Profitability. The R square approves this

with its high value of 0.744. Is a significant indicator that all the independent variables are

giving strong influence on the dependent variable. The adjusted R square which is the variance

is 0.74, which means that the dependent variable like Corporate tax responsible only for 74%

of change in the Profitability, and this is not a good indicator to conclude that these

independent variables has any strong influence to bring a change in the Profitability.

Determinant of Free Cash Flows Impact upon Financial Performance of

cement industry of Pakistan

2014

Muhammad Amjad Islam 57678 Page 7

The value of R Square was 0.741, while the value of adjusted R square was 0.7480 we can see

the value of R Square is greater than Adjusted R Square which shows that there is a

improvement required.

Determinant of Free Cash Flows Impact upon Financial Performance of

cement industry of Pakistan

2014

Muhammad Amjad Islam 57678 Page 8

The value of ANOVA is helpful to describe the importance of a research hypothesis. In this

paper is 0.592 and value of significance level is 0.00. From the Sum of squares we find that

regression is .592 and residual is .796. The P-Value is less than as compared to my alpha =0.05

it is significant linear equation and on basis of this significance level which is less than , we

accept substitute hypothesis and Reject null hypothesis. Also there is a highly correlation

74.10%.

Table value of Coefficients gives us the (linear regression) (Y: a + bX) Driven. Thus, our forecast

equation for the research two variables is Profitability

Determinant of Free Cash Flows Impact upon Financial Performance of

cement industry of Pakistan

2014

Muhammad Amjad Islam 57678 Page 9

It can be observe that the data is skewed which might be the cause of higher standard deviation

than mean.

HYPOTHESIS#2

Interest rate & finance cost:

The regression analysis is used to achieve the result of a paper by testing the entire set of

variables. For this paper, the dependent variable, Profitability is tested with the independent

Determinant of Free Cash Flows Impact upon Financial Performance of

cement industry of Pakistan

2014

Muhammad Amjad Islam 57678 Page 10

variable Finance cost (Interest Rate). After entering the data in SPSS and running the regression

tool I have received the following Descriptive Statistics table.

From the above table I have come to conclusion that Mean of Profitability, Interest Rate are

13.67, 7.9636, and .0561 respectively. And as so the Std. Deviation of above variables, in the

sequence as mentioned, is .10371. This gives us the conclusion that the data is equally

distributed and taken from random sampling technique.

The above table shows the summary of regression analysis. Here in this table we have R as .505,

which shows a relation between the independent variables finance cost (Interest rate) but it

suggests that they have significant impact on the dependent variable Profitability. The R square

approves this with its high value of 0.904. Is a significant indicator that all the independent

variables are giving strong influence on the dependent variable. The adjusted R square which is

the variance is 0.814, which means that the dependent variable like finance cost (Interest rate)

are responsible only for 44% of change in the Profitability, and this is not a good indicator to

conclude that these independent variables has any strong influence to bring a change in the

Profitability.

Determinant of Free Cash Flows Impact upon Financial Performance of

cement industry of Pakistan

2014

Muhammad Amjad Islam 57678 Page 11

The value of R Square was 0.816, while the value of adjusted R square was 0.814 we can see the

value of R Square is lesser than Adjusted R Square which shows that there is a improvement

required.

The value of ANOVA is helpful to describe the importance of a research hypothesis. In this

paper is 0.904 and value of significance level is 0.650. From the Sum of squares we find that

Determinant of Free Cash Flows Impact upon Financial Performance of

cement industry of Pakistan

2014

Muhammad Amjad Islam 57678 Page 12

regression is .650 and residual is 146. The f-Value is less than as compared to my alpha =0.05

it is significant linear equation and on basis of this significance level which is less than , we

accept substitute hypothesis and Reject null hypothesis. Also there is a highly correlation

74.10%.

Table value of Coefficients gives us the (linear regression) (Y: a + bX) Driven. Thus, our forecast

equation for the research two variables is Profitability

Determinant of Free Cash Flows Impact upon Financial Performance of

cement industry of Pakistan

2014

Muhammad Amjad Islam 57678 Page 13

It can be observe that the data is skewed which might be the cause of higher standard deviation

than mean.

HYPOTHESIS#3

LABOR (MANUFACTURING COST)

The regression analysis is used to achieve the result of a paper by testing the entire set of

variables. For this paper, the dependent variable, Profitability is tested with the following

independent variables, Manufacturing cost (Labor Cost). After entering the data in SPSS and

running the regression tool I have received the following Descriptive Statistics table.

Determinant of Free Cash Flows Impact upon Financial Performance of

cement industry of Pakistan

2014

Muhammad Amjad Islam 57678 Page 14

From the above table I have come to conclusion that Mean of Profitability, Corporate Tax,

Interest Rate, and Labor Cost and Dividend are 13.67 and 1.11. And as so the Std. Deviation of

above variables, in the sequence as mentioned, is .10371, 0.1717. This gives us the conclusion

that the data is equally distributed and taken from random sampling technique.

The above table shows the summary of regression analysis. Here in this table we have R as .781,

which shows a relation between the independent variable manufacturing (Labor cost) but it

suggests that they have significant impact on the dependent variable Profitability. The R square

approves this with its low value of 0.610. Is a significant indicator that all the independent

variables are giving strong influence on the dependent variable. The adjusted R square which is

the variance is 0.604, which means that the dependent variable like Labor cost, are responsible

only for 73% of change in the Profitability, and this is not a good indicator to conclude that

these independent variables has any strong influence to bring a change in the Profitability.

Determinant of Free Cash Flows Impact upon Financial Performance of

cement industry of Pakistan

2014

Muhammad Amjad Islam 57678 Page 15

The value of ANOVA is helpful to describe the importance of a research hypothesis. In this

paper is 0.781 and value of significance level is 0.01. From the Sum of squares we find that

regression is .485 and residual is .311. The F-Value is less than as compared to my alpha =0.05

it is significant linear equation and on basis of this significance level which is less than , we

accept substitute hypothesis and Reject null hypothesis. Also there is a highly correlation

74.00%.

Determinant of Free Cash Flows Impact upon Financial Performance of

cement industry of Pakistan

2014

Muhammad Amjad Islam 57678 Page 16

Table value of Coefficients gives us the (linear regression) (Y: a + bX) Driven. Thus, our forecast

equation for the research two variables is Profitability

Determinant of Free Cash Flows Impact upon Financial Performance of

cement industry of Pakistan

2014

Muhammad Amjad Islam 57678 Page 17

It can be observe that the data is skewed which might be the cause of higher standard deviation

than mean.

HYPOTHESIS#4

Dividend pay out:

The regression analysis is used to achieve the result of a paper by testing the entire set of

variables. For this paper, the dependent variable, Profitability is tested with the following

independent variable dividend. After entering the data in SPSS and running the regression tool I

have received the following Descriptive Statistics table.

Determinant of Free Cash Flows Impact upon Financial Performance of

cement industry of Pakistan

2014

Muhammad Amjad Islam 57678 Page 18

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0.999691657

R Square 0.999383412

Adjusted R Square 0.999301198

Standard Error 0.883450312

Observations 5

From the above table I have come to conclusion that Mean of Profitability, Corporate Tax,

Interest Rate, and Labor Cost and Dividend are 13.9773, 7.9636, 7.42627, 9.5775 and 3.0582

respectively. And as so the Std. Deviation of above variables, in the sequence as mentioned, is

3.01377, 2.24829, 1.97154 and 1.14063. This gives us the conclusion that the data is not equally

distributed.

The value of R which is the variance is 0.998, which means that the dependent variable like

dividend are responsible only for 88% of change in the Profitability, and this is not a good

indicator to conclude that these independent variables has any strong influence to bring a

change in the Profitability.

The value of R Square was 0.941, while the value of adjusted R square was 0.883 we can see the

value of R Square is greater than Adjusted R Square which shows that there is an improvement

required.

Determinant of Free Cash Flows Impact upon Financial Performance of

cement industry of Pakistan

2014

Muhammad Amjad Islam 57678 Page 19

ANOVA

df SS MS F

Significance

F

Regression 1 189.1540384 94.87702 12156.17 8.41346E.25

Residual 4 0.117072668 0.007805

Total 5 1.89871111

Coefficients

Standard

Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%

Intercept -0.73958006 0.059312128 -1.24693 0.231531 -0.20037886 0.0524621

Dividend 0.432862334 0.00686002 63.09928 1.305E.19 0.418240548 0.4474525

The value of ANOVA is helpful to describe the importance of a research hypothesis. In this

paper is 0.94 and value of significance level is 0.8413. From the Sum of squares we find that

regression is 26.808 and residual is 163.931. The P-Value is less than as compared to my alpha

=0.05 it is significant linear equation and on basis of this significance level which is less than

Determinant of Free Cash Flows Impact upon Financial Performance of

cement industry of Pakistan

2014

Muhammad Amjad Islam 57678 Page 20

, we accept substitute hypothesis and Reject null hypothesis. Also there is a highly correlation

43.10%.

It can be observe that the data is skewed which might be the cause of higher standard deviation

than mean.

Determinant of Free Cash Flows Impact upon Financial Performance of

cement industry of Pakistan

2014

Muhammad Amjad Islam 57678 Page 21

Conclusion And Recommendations

In this paper, as the work was carried out, hypothesis was tested using the regression analysis statistical

technique. I have found that Finance cost, Labor Cost, and Corporate tax were over all explanatory

power, which shows a strong relationship and due to this strong relationship, the null hypothesis was

rejected @5% significance level. Because the coefficient of determination of R2 on the independent

variable has moderate relation .

The research, with the primary objective, was conducted to analyze the Economical factor impact on

profitability of Cement Manufacturing Sector in Pakistan and different variable (Dividend, Corporate

Tax, Finance Cost, Labor Cost) and result showed both are variable positive relationship (Slope) which

according to result of research hypothesis .

The results suggested that Dividend, Corporate Tax, Finance Cost, Labor Cost has strong impact on

profitability of Cement Manufacturing Sector. It is oblivious that when a firm earns a great amount of

profit, it has, as per taxation rules, has to pay more corporate tax to the government of that economy.

Similarly, when a firm earns more profit which means its business is lucrative and flourishing and its

gaining more business, which requires the firm to increase its number of units produced or to expand its

line of production. This, in resulting, requires the company to hire more labor, and invent more on the

production line. This, in straight manner, results the firm to pay more finance cost and labor cost.

Because the production line is expanded the other expenses like stock storage, utilities bills will also

increase. On the basis of my work and as the result, after the interpretation of data, suggested

significant Correlation is 0.862 which means it has significant relation among profitability of the Cement

Determinant of Free Cash Flows Impact upon Financial Performance of

cement industry of Pakistan

2014

Muhammad Amjad Islam 57678 Page 22

Manufacturing sector and the corporate Tax. Though there is (moderate) relation between Profitability

and corporate tax as a result of research can say that there is significant relation among variable.

Dose Finance Cost and dividend have impact on Profitability of Cement manufacturing sector in

Pakistan?

It has a significant impact on the profitability, this in result the null hypothesis. On the analysis of the

data I have found the value of correlation as 0.904 which shows a moderate relation between the

dependent variable of profitability and the independent variable finance Cost. It is, as we can say the

relationship between the independent and dependent variable is moderate we can reject the null

hypothesis. We can conclude that the increase in finance cost has direct impact on the increase of

profitability of cement manufacturers.

Dose Labor Cost and interest rate impact on Profitability of Cement manufacturing sector in Pakistan ?

From the previous empirical studies, the relationship between labor cost and profitability was validated.

And it was found through this study that the relationship between these two variables exists. Although

the result suggested a correlation value of 0.781 which is found as moderate relationship . With this

value of correlation the null hypothesis is rejected and the relationship between the two variables is

accommodated as moderate relation.

Recommendations

In the light of my research and analysis on the topic to impacts of Economical factor on Profitability of

cement manufacturing sector in Pakistan We have found link

As for the bank loans and interest rates of the government's policy are not favourable. The need

of the developing a coherent plan for the government is to allow the type of exclusion /

excellence in the cement manufacturing sector.

Serious steps are required to be taken by the policy makers on government side for the cement

manufacturing sector in order to reduce corporate tax so that the profitability of the firm makes

the firm able to investment more in the economy which will create more job opportunities.

Determinant of Free Cash Flows Impact upon Financial Performance of

cement industry of Pakistan

2014

Muhammad Amjad Islam 57678 Page 23

Cement sector requires a high amount of energy to remain functional. Therefore the

government makes ensure that the manufacturers get uninterrupted supply of energy.

Government in collaboration of the manufacturers should introduce new technology of cement

manufacturing which will help to reduce labor and manufacturing cost.

The investment volume is not satisfactory in the cement sector as compared to the Potential

available. Government should provide more incentives to the investors so that they invest in this

sector.

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