To: |nteresteo Partles

From: 8ryan Dooley

Date: August 13, 2014
Re: Polllng ln Florloa's 2
no
Congresslonal Dlstrlct
1


Recent polllng ln Florloa's 2
no
Congresslonal Dlstrlct, conoucteo on bebalt ot Ocean Cbamplons, sbows
a race tbat ls breaklng towaro Gwen Grabam. Tbere ls also a strong lnolcatlon tbat tbe race wlll
contlnue movlng ber way as tbe remalnlng unoecloeo voters begln to make up tbelr mlnos. Ocean
Cbamplons' actlvltles ln tbe Panama Clty market bave colncloeo wltb a sbarp oecllne ln Steve
Soutberlano's leao ln tbat portlon ot tbe olstrlct.
1. Gwen Grahan hoIds a sIight Iead over 5teve 5outherIand anong IikeIy voters {45
Grahan / 43 5outherIand / 11 undecided}. Tbls ls clear evloence ot tbe race trenolng
ln Grabam's tavor ln a survey conoucteo ln Aprll ot tbls year, Soutberlano belo a comtortable
leao over Grabam (49 Soutberlano / 39 Grabam). Tbat survey was conoucteo towaro tbe
eno ot slgnltlcant meola buy trom Republlcan attlllateo groups. Grabam bas now completely
eraseo tbe Republlcan aovantage createo by tbat spenolng. Grabam currently leaos Soutberlano
by +21 percentage polnts ln tbe Tallabassee market (55 Grabam / 34 Soutberlano) ano tralls
Soutberlano by -26 percentage polnts ln tbe Panama Clty market (31 Grabam / 57
Soutberlano). Tbls retlects a net lncrease ln support tor Grabam ot +8 ano +17 respectlvely,
compareo to Aprll. Tbls oramatlc sbltt ln support ln Panama Clty colncloes wltb a slzable meola
buy by Ocean Cbamplons ln tbat market.

2. Undecided voters appear ready to break toward Grahan. Unoecloeo voters ln tbe
Congresslonal race are less Republlcan ln reglstratlon tban tbe electorate as a wbole, ano lean
towaro Cbarlle Crlst over Rlck Scott ln tbe governor's race. Forty percent (40) ot unoecloeo
voters woulo preter someone new representlng tbem ln Congress, compareo to only 12 ot
unoecloeo voters wbo say tbey woulo preter to see Soutberlano re-electeo.

3. 5outherIand is "upside down" on severaI of the key indicators that neasure an
incunbent's strength. Soutberlano's job ratlng ls net negatlve (42 posltlve / 47 negatlve).
|n tact, bls posltlve job ratlng ls only sllgbtly blgber tban tbat ot Presloent Obama's (37
posltlve). A majorlty ot llkely voters say tbey woulo preter to see someone new representlng
tbem ln Congress ratber tban re-elect Steve Soutberlano (39 re-elect Soutberlano 54
someone new).

1
Conoucteo by Patbtlnoer Oplnlon Researcb among llkely November 2014 General Llectlon voters ln Florloa's 2
no

Congresslonal Dlstrlct. Telepbone lntervlewlng was conoucteo Aprll 22-24, 2014 ano August 11-12, 2014 utlllzlng llve
lntervlewers ano a voter llst sample contalnlng lanollne ano cell pbone numbers. Tbe sample slze tor botb surveys ls n=500
wltb a margln ot sampllng error ot +/- 4.4 at tbe 95 level ot contloence.