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Weekly Technical Analysis Weekly Technical Analysis

for week commencing 18 August 2014 for week commencing 18 August 2014
Prepared by icola !uke Prepared by icola !uke

Page 2 "#P$%!
page & '$($%!
Page 4 A$!$%!
Page ) $%!*P+
Page , '$("#P
Page - $%!./0
Page 8 $%!.A!
Page 1 '$(*P+
Page 10 "old
Page 11 WT2 3il
Page 12 !A4
Page 1& %5P)00
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GBPUSD weekly 9iew
This is the first , week decline since 2008 and we ha9e not seen - red weeks in a row since
200): 0ridays close was abo9e the 2011 highs on a close price basis and 1:,-0, could be
support as we start the week The first fib target from the 2011 low howe9er is a bit lower at
1:,,&0 and 2 would be surprised to see any sustained rally without tagging this le9el:

!aily 9iew
%upport becomes resistance at 1:,-4, to sell again for 1:,,&0 with the trend:
1:,-&2 is the )0= of last weeks open close and holding as resistance so far this morning:
EURUSD Weekly 9iew
Tiny do>i inside week: .hunky option e7pirations this le9el drained the li8uidity and kept
'$($%! stuck all week: Two pre9ious hammers in a row sitting on the weekly 200sma suggest
that we may slow 5 go back to retest the breakdown le9el from the wedge at 1:&)20 but
markets can correct sideways in time instead of price and we may get no bounce
0ibonacci rules say ha9ing re9ersed at the ,1:8fib of the 2011high62012low we should go to the
&8:2fib ne7t at 1:&14,
!aily 9iew
This suggests a wedge ? bearish pennant or coiling up for a mo9e lower:
Trade the edge of the range or a break of 1:&&&) for a run lower:
A break higher has 1:&41061:&) resistance for a run lower:
AUDUSD weekly 9iew
@ast week candlestick is a bullish inside bar as the Aussie found support abo9e the April?<ay
range lows: Weekly oscillators fa9our higher if only we could get some momentum going:
!aily 9iew
#ullish gartley fibonacci pattern from the April lows triggered last week and working nicely:
We ha9e hit resistance at the pi9otal 1&28 which was the first ob>ecti9e of the pattern:
We need to clear this le9el to 0:140) 5 0:14&) ne7t ob>ecti9es:
USDJPY weekly 9iew
2nside week after last weeks do>i: %ideways trading after a retest of the wedge breakout held:
This may not be a wedge but >ust a range A either way ne7t target higher is 10&:4& B 10&:-&
!aily 9iew
0riday was a bearish engulfing ? key outside re9ersal day:
The <ay6*une rally is e8ual to the *uly August rally which is a bearish pattern and we should
now see twoC wa9es lower: 0irst support is 101:-)6101:8) D.E0:,18AFand if we do not rally
here then it is back to the bottom of the range at 101:18 D.EAF
EURGBP weekly 9iew
#ullish bat fibonacci pattern has triggered on the weak "#P and targets return to 0:84
!aily 9iew
@ast weeks /5% pattern triggered:
This pair likes to mean6re9ert so could pullback to 0:-180 to retest the neckline for a long entry:
Watch the price action:
USDCHF weekly 9iew
Three weekly shooting star ? do>is in a row are bearish; $%!./0 needs to break and hold below
0:1021 to get downside momentum to 0:81)2 ne7t
#igger picture this chart is bullish and $%!./0 should hold the <ay low and rally back to 0:14
!aily 9iew:
0:81)2 is the le9el to watch for trend: 2t is the first target for the bearish fibonacci pattern if you
are short and a rally off there makes new highs more likely:
0:8108 last line in the sand for the bullish trend:
3nly trading abo9e 108& negates immediate bearish 9iew for now:
Weekly 9iew
2 like the rounded bottom the $%!.A! has been forming since 2001: /owe9er since the 2001
high we ha9e reached the )0= retracement and fallen back: The minimum retracement here
would be to 1:02,1 and last line in the sand Dbefore new lowsF is down to 0:1,&2
!aily 9iew
!escending channel should resol9e higher when it breaks:
%upport at 1:08 keeps the bull 9iew ali9e short term
#elow 1:08 2 would wait for a retest of 1:0)8) to buy
EURJPY weekly 9iew
Golatility in the pair died this week; like the '$($%!: 2t is sa9ing up energy for the ne7t mo9e
so we keep watching: 0ailure to close below that <arch 14 low Dalso 2001 highsF is short term
!aily 9iew
/eld abo9e last weeks low despite some test runs lower so looks bullish but the A#E.! rally off
the lows is bearish in the short term suggesting a retest of the lows or at least 1:&,,4
ot the best looking yen trade out there:
GOLD weekly 9iew
The middle of a wedge and between the ,1:8 5 &8:2 fib is a hard place to trade 5 we are still sat
here: The but the bigger pattern is bullish and 2 lean that way to higher 5 148):
!aily 9iew
#roke the declining trend line from the *uly high and successfully retested the breakout le9el at
121) it needs to hold this le9el to go higher:
The pattern says higher but the price action DcandlesF say lower to its a hard one to call at the
start of the week:
#elow 121) the 12--:,0 is the ne7t buy entry:
OIL $% WT2 crude weekly 9iew
"artley fibonacci pattern final target would be new lows for the year Dbelow the *an 2014 lowF
/owe9er there is good potential support between 14:)0 5 1,:20 and the rising trend line is from
the 2008 low:
!aily Giew
Trendline support and an inside day: 0a9ours buying against the trendline for 11:&0 and then
101:-0; a break below the trendline support 5 14:)0 le9el has 8,:206,0 big picture target:
DAX weekly 9iew
@ast weeks bullish hammer broke but the !A4 failed to hold the new highs: 3ne of the most
bearish of the ma>or inde7es is the !a7 leading or the bulllish asda8: This week might tell:
The <arch low has not been broken to keep the uptrend intact for now: *ust:
!aily 9iew
0riday bearish engulfing Dkey outside day re9ersalF:
11-0 and 108) need to hold as support or we will retest the 2014 low: 88)2 is the ne7t support
if we make a new low:
S&P weekly 9iew
%trong bounce off the &8:2 fib retracement from the 2014 lows should be 9ery bullish; in fact if
the %5P does not make a new high on this rally it would be the first time it has failed to do so
after hitting a key retracement since the 2011 low: 0ailure to make a new high or the asda8
double topping against *uly high gets me looking for shorts:
!aily 9iew
Watching resistance at 11)8:) and 11-8
The fibonacci e7tension le9el we ha9e reached suggests to me we will not see new highs for a
Hey support for bulls to buy is 11&1 otherwise we retest the 181) lows