Nervous Afghans near political deadline

Afghan election commission workers display ballot papers during an audit of the
presidential runof vote in the country's general election at a counting center in Kabul.
(Shah arai!Agence "rance#$resse via %etty &mages'
(y $a
mela )onstable August *+ at *,-.* $
KABUL With a crucial deadline soon approaching to inaugurate a new president and
an election ballot recount in a critical stage, fears are growing that Afghanistans fragile
transition process could collapse into violence.
The uic!ening pace of a protracted election audit and a flurr" of #eetings between
aides to the two rival candidates this wee! have raised faint hopes that the countr"
#a" have a new leader in office within the ne$t two wee!s, %ust in ti#e to attend a
&AT' su##it crucial to future foreign aid for Afghanistan.
But Afghan and international observers here warn that the process could easil" fall
apart, with disputes persisting over the fairness of the ballot recount and the two
candidates unable to agree on a division of power after a winner is declared. Under
U.(. pressure, the" agreed to for# a national unit" govern#ent with a president as
well as a chief e$ecutive, but the" differ strongl" on the details.
)espite pleas for patience fro# international officials, aides and allies of Abdullah
Abdullah the candidate who originall" called for the ballot recount and charged
#assive fraud in a *une runoff vote against rival Ashraf +hani continue to threaten
that the" will pull out of the process and call for civil unrest if +hani wins a tainted
recount and is na#ed president.
'ne powerful governor bac!ing Abdullah threatened in *une to for# a ,parallel
govern#ent- after Abdullah lost the runoff, and last wee! he again called for a ,civil
uprising- and ta!eover of the capital if Abdullah loses the vote recount. There have
been separate news reports that so#e officials close to the Afghan securit" services
#a" be planning to install their own ,interi# govern#ent- if the political process falls
apart.
.n the past several da"s, police and securit" vehicles have flooded the capital and
sporadic gunfire has been heard. 'n Tuesda", a !nife fight reportedl" bro!e out at the
heavil" guarded election co#pound where the votes are being recounted, in%uring
several people.
Although both candidates have signed a co##it#ent to for# a %oint govern#ent as
soon as the recount results declare one of the# president, negotiating tea#s for +hani
and Abdullah are apparentl" still #iles apart on how #uch power and authorit" the
loser would be able to e$ercise as chief e$ecutive a critical factor in dispensing
patronage to powerful bac!ers and allies.
Uncertaint" over what will happen in the ne$t two wee!s whether Afghanistan will
#anage to install a new govern#ent or face violent challenges fro# forces unwilling to
accept electoral defeat is gripping a nation that has ga#bled its future on a deepl"
flawed first de#ocratic transition of power.
Afghanistan is ver" fragile and unstable. We are right at the edge of #a!ing or
destro"ing all the hopes that the people have for new leadership and a credible
govern#ent,- said Abbas &o"an, a spo!es#an for +hani. ,/or#er adversaries need to
beco#e partners, but we have ene#ies on all sides, fro# the hardliners to the Taliban.
.f violence starts, a lot of people will be !illed before it can be stopped.-
+hani, a for#er World Ban! official, won the *une runoff b" a wide #argin over
Abdullah, a for#er foreign #inister, and is li!el" to prevail in the recount. Abdullah,
who got the #ost votes a#ong 01 candidates in a first round in April, has alleged that
both the runoff and the recount have been fraudulentl" stac!ed against hi# b" +hani
and the outgoing govern#ent of 2resident 3a#id Kar4ai.
The deadline to install a new president b" #onths end is #ore s"#bolic than legal,
since the original inauguration date slipped b" several wee!s ago. But with a &AT'
su##it earl" ne$t #onth and a #uch5dela"ed U.(.5Afghan securit" agree#ent
awaiting a new presidents signature, the future of Western econo#ic and #ilitar"
support for Afghanistan hangs in the balance.
Kar4ai, who has led Afghanistan for #ore than a decade since the overthrow of the
Taliban regi#e, sa"s he intends to leave office b" the end of the #onth, raising the
prospect of a prolonged power vacuu# if no one is confir#ed to replace hi#. &AT'
leaders have said the" will have to start plans to withdraw all forces fro# Afghanistan
if the securit" agree#ent is not signed soon.
Until recentl", the a#bitious, U.&.5supervised audit had been slowed b" technical
proble#s and constant disagree#ents between the two sides. .n the past wee! it has
pic!ed up considerable speed, but it is about to enter a new, highl" politici4ed phase.
6lection officials plan to announce partial results, which could unleash a fren4" of
accusations and ulti#atu#s fro# both ca#ps.
This wee!, aides to Abdullah echoed the earlier warning b" +ov. Attah 7oha##ed
&oor, who threatened that a #ass of unar#ed protesters would occup" the capital to
prevent a new govern#ent fro# entering power if Abdullah lost the recount through
fraud.
We hope and believe that the audit will be fair and transparent, but we !now that
invisible fraud is ta!ing place,- /a4el 8ah#an 3oria, a spo!es#an for Abdullah, said
7onda". ,.f the outco#e is not legiti#ate and does not represent the voters, we will
guard the peoples vote and we will not let an" illegiti#ate president enter the palace
or an" illegiti#ate #inisters enter the #inistries.-
The threats #a" be part of Abdullahs negotiating strateg", but the danger, observers
said, is that the obstructionist #ood could ta!e on a life of its own, even without
Abdullahs i#pri#atur.
The concern is that Afghanistans long histor" of ethnic conflict will ree#erge if the
electoral process fails. +hani, a 2ashtun, en%o"s strong support a#ong the do#inant
2ashtun populace based in the south. Abdullah, although half52ashtun b" birth, is
strongl" identified with the Ta%i!s and other northern ethnic groups.
Alread", the departure of thousands of civilian foreign aid wor!ers, as well as well5to5
do Afghans anticipating the worst, is visible across the capital. )o4ens of houses in
affluent neighborhoods have ,/or 8ent- signs on the door. Ban!s, restaurants and
shops once freuented b" foreigners are e#pt". 8ows of idle cranes and other heav"
euip#ent sit rusting in once5bustling construction "ards.
This is the first ti#e in Afghanistans histor" that we are tr"ing to have an election
that is not winner5ta!e5all,- &o"an said. ,What we need is to build a de#ocrac" based
on #erit instead of plunder, where institutions and law are respected. .f we fail, 09
"ears of international effort will end, and we will have to go bac! to !indergarten.-
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