50 Books for Thinking About the Future Human Condition

Please send comments and suggestions to dewar@rand.org. Links go to the publishers Web sites with information on how to order
the books (or PDF download information if available). Summaries of each book and why it was selected for the list are available at
http://www.rand.org/international_programs/pardee/50books/. Last updated: November 28, 2007

The Past More

1. Roberts, J. M., The New History of the World, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2002. ISBN 0195219279

2. Diamond, Jared, Guns, Germs and Steel, New York, W. W. Norton and Company, 1999. ISBN 0-393-06131-0

3. Diamond, Jared, Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed, New York; Viking, 2005. ISBN 0143036556

Thi nki ng About t he Fut ure i n t he Past More

4. Keynes, John Maynard, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, New York: Penguin Books, 1995 (originally published in
1920). ISBN 0140188053

5. Kahn, Herman, and Anthony J. Weiner, The Year 2000: A Framework for Speculation on the Next Thirty Years, New York:
Macmillan, 1967. (no ISBN available)

6. Kahn, Herman, William Brown, and Leon Martel, The Next 200 Years: A Scenario for America and the World, New York:
William Morrow and Company, 1976. ISBN 0688030297

7. Bell, Daniel, The Coming of Post-Industrial Society: A Venture in Social Forecasting, New York: Basic Books, 1999
(originally published in 1973). ISBN 0-465-09713-8

8. Toffler, Alvin, Future Shock, New York: Bantam Books, 1971. ISBN 0-553-27737-5

Human Devel opment More

9. Collier, Paul, The Bottom Billion: Why the Poorest Countries Are Failing and What Can Be Done About It, Oxford: Oxford
University Press, 2007, ISBN 0195311450

10. Lauren, Paul Gordon, The Evolution of International Human Rights, Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press, 1998.
ISBN 0-8122-1854-X

11. Fukuda-Parr, Sakiko, and A. K. Shiva Kumar, Readings in Human Development, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2
nd
ed.,
2004. ISBN 0195670523

12. United Nations Development Programme, Human Development Report 2000: Human Rights and Human Development, New
York: Oxford University Press, 2000. ISBN 0195216784. Also available online from the UNDP Web site.

13. United Nations Development Programme, Human Development Report 2001: Making New Technologies Work for Human
Development, New York: Oxford University Press, 2001. ISBN 0195218353. Also available online from the UNDP Web
site.

14. United Nations Development Programme, Human Development Report 2002: Deepening Democracy in a Fragmented World,
New York: Oxford University Press, 2002. ISBN 0195219155. Also available online from the UNDP Web site.

15. United Nations Development Programme, Human Development Report 2003: Millennium Development Goals: A Compact
Among Nations to End Human Poverty, New York: Oxford University Press, 2003. ISBN 0195219880. Also available online
from the UNDP Web site.

16. United Nations Development Programme, Human Development Report 2004: Cultural Liberty in Todays Diverse World,
New York: Oxford University Press, 2004. ISBN 019522146X. Also available online from the UNDP Web site.

Issues For t he Fut ure More

Global Governance More
17. Kaul, Inge, Isabelle Grunberg, Marc C. Stern (eds.), Global Public Goods: International Cooperation in the 21
st
Century,
New York: Oxford University Press, 1999. ISBN 0195130529

International Conflict More
18. Nye, Joseph S. Jr., Understanding International Conflict, New York: Longman, (4
th
ed.) 2003. ISBN 0-321-20945-1

Health More

19. The Advisory Committee on Health Research, Genomics and World Health, Geneva: World Health Organization, 2002. ISBN
92-4-154554-2. Also available as a downloadable PDF from the WHO Web site. (982 KB)

20. Naam, Ramez, More Than Human: Embracing the Promise of Biological Enhancement, New York, Broadway Books, ISBN
0-7679-1843-6, 2005.

Demographics More

21. Cohen, Joel E., How Many People Can the Earth Support? New York: W. W. Norton and Company, 1995. ISBN 0-393-
31495-2

Technology More

22. Brockman, John (ed.), The Next Fifty Years: Science in the First Half of the Twenty-first Century, New York: Vintage Books,
2002. ISBN 0-375-71342-5

23. Ridley, Matt, Genome: The Autobiography of a Species in 23 Chapters, New York: HarperCollins, 2000.
ISBN 0-060-93290-2

24. Wilson, Michael, et al., Nanotechnology: Basic Science and Emerging Technologies, Boca Raton, Fla.: Chapman and
Hall/CRC, 2004. ISBN 1584883391

Information Technology More

25. Brin, David, The Transparent Society: Will Technology Force us to Choose Between Privacy and Freedom? New York:
Perseus Books, 1998. ISBN 0738201448

Environment More

26. Alley, Richard, The Two-Mile Time Machine: Ice Cores, Abrupt Climate Change, and Our Future, Princeton: Princeton
University Press, 2000. ISBN 0-691-10296-1

27. Hawken, Paul, Amory Lovins, and L. Hunter Lovins, Natural Capitalism, New York: Little, Brown and Co., 1999. ISBN
0316353167

28. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: Synthesis, Washington, D.C.: Island Press, 2005. ISBN 1-59726-040-1

Energy More

29. Lovins, Amory, Winning the Oil Endgame: Innovation for Profits, Jobs, and Security, Snowmass, Colo.: Rocky Mountain
Institute, 2004. ISBN 1-881071-10-3. Also available online from http://www.oilendgame.com/

Global Economics More

30. Stiglitz, Joseph E., Globalization and Its Discontents, New York: W. W. Norton and Company, 2003. ISBN 0-393-32439-7

31. Bhagwati, Jagdish, In Defense of Globalization, New York: Oxford University Press, 2004. ISBN 0195300033


32. Friedman, Thomas, The Lexus and the Olive Tree: Understanding Globalization, New York: Anchor Books, 2000. ISBN 0-
385-49934-5

33. Todaro, Michael P. and Stephen C. Smith, Economic Development, Harlow, England: Pearson/Addison Wesley, 9
ht
ed., 2003.
ISBN 0-321-27888-7

34. Sachs, Jeffrey, The End of Poverty, New York: The Penguin Press, 2005. ISBN 1594200459

Culture More

35. Armstrong, Karen, The Battle for God: A History of Fundamentalism, New York: Random House, 2001,
ISBN 0-345-39169-1

Geographical Regions More

36. McCormick, John, Understanding the European Union: A Concise Introduction, New York: Palgrave, 2002. ISBN 1-4039-
4451-2

37. Overholt, William H., The Rise of China, New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 1993. ISBN 0-393-31245-3

38. Harding, Harry, Chinas Second Revolution: Reform After Mao, Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press, 1987. ISBN
0815734611

39. Cohen, Stephen Philip, India: Emerging Power, Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press, 2001. ISBN 0815715013

40. Skidmore, Thomas E., Modern Latin America, Oxford: Oxford University Press, sixth ed., 2005. ISBN 019517013X

41. Fromkin, David, A Peace to End All Peace: The Fall of the Ottoman Empire and the Creation of the Modern Middle East,
New York: Owl Books, 1989. ISBN 0-8050-6884-8

42. Billington, James H., Russia in Search of Itself, Washington, D.C.: Woodrow Wilson Center Press, 2004.
ISBN 0-8018-7976-0

43. Schraeder, Peter J., African Politics and Society: A Mosaic in Transformation, Australia: Thomson/Wadsworth, 2004. ISBN
053456769X

Thi nki ng About t he Fut ure More

44. Cornish, Edward, Futuring, Bethesda, Md.: World Future Society, (2004). ISBN 0-930242-61-0

45. Galtung, Johan, and Sohail Inayatullah, Macrohistory and Macrohistorians: Perspectives on Individual, Social, and
Civilizational Change, Westport, Conn.: Praeger, 1997. ISBN 0-275-95755-1

46. Lempert, Robert J., Steven W. Popper, and Steven C. Bankes, Shaping the Next One Hundred Years: New Methods for
Quantitative, Long-Term Policy Analysis, Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, 2003. ISBN 0-8330-3275-5. Chapters
also available online.

47. Heller, Peter, Who Will Pay?: Coping with Aging Societies, Climate Change, and Other Long-Term Fiscal Challenges,
Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund, 2003. ISBN 1-58906-223-X. Selected chapters also available online from
the IMF Web site.

48. Lomborg, Bjorn, Global Crises, Global Solutions, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2004. ISBN 0521606144

Wi l d Car ds More

49. Benyus, Janine, Biomimicry: Innovation Inspired by Nature, New York: Perennial, 2002. ISBN 0060533226

50. Hostetler, John A., Amish Society, Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1993. ISBN 0-8018-4442-8

Please also be sure to check out our online list of Reader Recommendations.
Updated: 5/11/2009