ECON1203 2007 Exam

THE UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES
SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS
ECON1203/ECON2292 (ARTS) QUANTITATIVE METHODS B
FINAL EXAMINATION
Session1, 2007
Time allowed: Three hours.

Total marks:
55 marks.
There are FIVE questions in this examination.

Answer ALL five questions.
The marks assigned to questions are NOT of equal value.
The value of each sub-question is indicated in brackets.
On the front of your answer book, write the number of each question you have attempted.
Statistical tables and useful formulae are attached to this examination paper.
Electronic calculators may be used.
The examination paper may be retained by the candidate.
Answers must be written in ink. Pencils may be used only for drawing, sketching or
graphical work.
Show the working steps in your answers.
Question 1 [10 marks in total]

(a)
(b)
To estimate the mean percentage change in annual ad expenditure for companies

listed in a large stock exchange for the year 2006, you have obtained a random
sample with 16 observations (i.e. percentage changes in ad expenditure for16
companies). The sample mean and sample standard deviation turn out to be 5%
and 12% respectively.
(i)
Suppose that the percentage change in ad expenditure follows a normal

distribution. Find the 95% confidence interval for the mean percentage
change in ad expenditure. [2 marks]
(ii)
What is the statistical interpretation for the numerical result in (i).

[1 mark]
(iii)
Suppose that you do not believe the percentage change in ad expenditure

follows a normal distribution and you have not drawn your sample yet.
How would you approximately construct the 95% confidence interval for
the mean percentage change in ad expenditure? Explain your answer
briefly.
[1 mark]
(iv)

distribution and the population standard deviation is known to be 11%. To
construct the 90% confidence interval with a width no greater than 4%,
what is the minimum sample size? [2 marks]
(v)

distribution. Construct the 90% confidence interval for the population
variance of the percentage change in ad expenditure, using the given
sample mean and sample standard deviation. [2 marks]
State the Central Limit Theorem and explain its importance in making inference
about the mean of a population. [2 marks]

(a)
(b)
Suppose that only 5% of Sydney residents are responsive to telemarketers in the

sense that they engage in a meaningful talk with calling salespersons. Suppose
that you work for HomeLink, a telemarketer specialized in selling
telecommunication services to Sydney residents, and you like to find answers to
the following sub-questions.
(i)
Let X be the number of responsive residents out of 10 residents being

called by HomeLink's salespersons. What are the mean and variance of X?
What is the probability that X 2? [2 marks]
(ii)
Use an appropriate approximation to find the probability that more than 3

out of 80 residents being called will engage in a meaningful talk with
HomeLink's salespersons [2 marks]
(iii)
Use an appropriate approximation to find the probability that more than 8

out of 160 residents being called will engage in a meaningful talk with
HomeLink's salespersons [2 marks]
A randomly-selected company may be classified by whether or not it prioritized

employee retention and whether or not it provided advanced training to its
employees. In 2001, 40% of the companies listed in a large stock exchange
reported that employee retention was prioritized and 35% of the companies
reported that advanced training was provided to their employees. Furthermore,
of the companies prioritizing employee retention, 80% reported that advanced
training was provided to their employees.
(i)
What is the probability that a randomly-selected company neither

prioritized employee retention nor provided advanced training to its
employees? [1 mark]
(ii)
Given that a randomly-selected company did not prioritize employee

retention, what is the probability that it provided advanced training to its
employees? [1 mark]
(iii)
Are the two events a randomly-selected company provided advanced

training to its employees and a randomly-selected company prioritized
employee retention independent? Why? [1 mark]

(a)
An author claims that 55% of the households in Sydney support the construction
of a new rail line connecting Central Railway Station to Maroubra. Jane, the
President of the Association for Public Transport, believes that the proportion of
supporters is higher than 55%. She decides to test the claim by using the
following procedure. First, 100 randomly-selected households will be interviewed
about the rail line proposal. Second, the number of supporters will be recorded.
Finally, the claim will be rejected if the number of supporters is greater than 60.
In answering the following sub-questions, ignore the continuity correction.
(i)
(ii)
(iii)
(b)
Write down the null and alternative hypotheses Jane is interested in.
[1 mark]
Find the level of significance of Janes test. [2 marks]
Find the power of Janes test when the true proportion of supporters is
60%. [2 marks]
In a debate on environment protection policies, the view that high-income people are
more likely to support the policies than low-income people emerged. Paul is interested in
whether or not there is a statistical justification for this view. A survey consisting of 200
adults has been carried out. The survey data are summarised in the table below. However,
Paul needs your help.
Policy Status
For
Against
Low
30
40
Income Status
Middle
58
41
High
15
16
Test the hypothesis that a persons income status is independent of the persons
policy status. Use a significance level of 5%. Write down the hypotheses, the test
statistic, the decision rule and your conclusion. [4 marks]
(c)
In hypothesis testing, what is a Type I error and what is a Type II error? What is the
motivation for choosing a small (level of significance)? [2 marks]

(a)
For the simple linear regression model Yi = 0 + 1 X i + i to be valid, the error

term i must satisfy certain conditions. Under these conditions, which of the
following statements is or are correct? Indicate only the correct statement(s) in
your answer booklet. Inclusion of incorrect ones attracts negative marks.
[2 marks]
(S1)
(S2)
(S3)
(S4)
(b)
E( i|Xi) = 0 + 1Xi.
i and Xi are uncorrelated.
var( i) = var(Yi).
E( i) = 0.
The following summary output (Table 1) is from a regression equation estimated

using Microsoft Excel. The dependent variable (Y) is the Australian Imports ($b)
and the independent variable (X) is the Australian Gross National Expenditure
($b). The model is
Yi = 0 + 1 X i + i .
Quarterly data from March 1970 to March 1995 comprising 26 observations were
used to estimate the regression equation. In answering the following subquestions, assume that the basic assumptions about linear regression models hold.
Table 1. Excel Output for Linear Regression of Imports on GNE
Regression Statistics
R Square
Standard Error of the Regression
Observations
0.948
4.314
26
Coefficients Standard Error

Intercept
-33.1398
3.9733
X Variable 0.2724
0.0130
(i)
(ii)
(iii)
(iv)
(v)
(vi)
t Stat
-8.3405
20.9003
P-value
0.0000
0.0000
What is the interpretation of the parameter 1. [1 mark]

Find the 95% confidence interval for 1. [2 marks]
Test the null hypothesis that 1 = 0.3 against the alternative that 1 < 0.3 at
the 5% level of significance. Write down your decision rule and
conclusion. [2 marks]
Suppose that the Australian Gross National Expenditure (X) is 500 billion
dollars. Make a point prediction for the Australian Imports (Y) by using
the estimated linear regression model. [2 marks]
The R Square or coefficient of determination is 0.948. Explain the
meaning of R Square. [2 mark]
The P-value 0.0000 for X variable in the above table is a probability.
Exactly, what is this probability? [2 marks]

The Federal Government introduced a baby bonus policy to encourage women to have
more children, which became effective on 1/July/04 (a Thursday). To investigate the
effectiveness of the policy, Jim collected the daily births from 1/May/04 to 31/August/04
with 123 observations. The data plot (a time series plot) is given below where 1/July/04
recorded the greatest births (978, the peak in the plot).
Daily Births 1/05/04 to 31/08/04
900
700
500
28
/8
/0
/0
/0
/8
/8
21
14
04
7/
8/
/0
/0
/7
31
24
/7
/0
/7
/0
17
04
/7
10
7/
3/
26
/6
/0
/0
/6
/0
19
04
/6
12
5/
/5
29
6/
/0
/0
/0
/5
22
04
/5
15
5/
8/
1/
5/
04
300
Table 2 Linear Regression Results for Daily Births*

Explanatory
variables
Intercept
July1D
WeekenD
Dependent variable: DailyBirths

Model 1
Model 2
626.1
700.2
(16.3)
(7.6)
32.4
31.3
(22.9)
(9.8)
-251.0
(10.8)
123
123
0.016
0.822
0.008
0.819
Observations
R squared
Adjusted R squared
* Numbers in brackets below coefficient estimate are standard errors.
Jim was interested in how the introduction of baby bonus affects the daily births. He
estimated two linear regression models:
Model 1 :
Births t = 0 + 1 July1Dt + t ,
Model 2 :
Births t = 0 + 1 July1Dt + 2 WeekenDt + t ,
where Births is the daily births, July1D is a dummy variable that equals 0 before
1/July/04 and 1 afterwards (inclusive), WeekenD is a dummy variable that equals 0 for
weekdays and 1 for weekends, ant t is the time index. The least-squares estimation results
are listed in Table 2.
In answering the following sub-questions, the sample size here may be regarded as
sufficiently large such that the sampling distributions of the estimators are well
approximated by the normal distribution.
(a)
Compare the results of Model 1 and Model 2 in Table 2. Would you count
WeekenD as an omitted variable in Model 1? Why? [2 marks]
(b)
How would you interpret the parameters in Model 2? [3 marks]
(c)
What would you conclude about the marginal effect of July1D (or introducing the
baby bonus) on the daily births under Model 1? Use a 10% significance level.
[2 marks]
(d)
What would you conclude about the marginal effect of July1D (or introducing the
baby bonus) on the daily births under Model 2? Use a 1% significance level.
[2 mark1]
(e)
Are your conclusions for (c) and (d) different? Give reasons to your answer.
[2 marks]
(f)
Use Model 2 to predict (point prediction) the daily births for a Sunday after
1/July/2004. [1 mark]
USEFUL FORMULAE
X=
Sample Mean:
Population Variance: 2 =
1
N
1
n
1 n
( X i X )2
n 1 i =1
1 N
=
Xi
N i =1
S2 =
Sample Variance:
Xi
i =1
( X i ) 2
Population Mean:
i =1
Additive Law of Probability:
P ( A B ) = P ( A) + P ( B ) P ( A B )
Multiplicative Law of Probability: P( A B) = P( A B ) P ( B) = P( B A) P( A)

P( Ei ) P( A Ei )
P ( E i A) =
Bayes theorem:
P( E k ) P( A E k )
k
P( X = x) = n C x p x q n x
Binomial Distribution:
E(X) = np;
Var(X) = npq
e x
P( X = x ) =
x!
Poisson Distribution:
E(X) = ;
Standardising transformations:
Confidence intervals for :
Confidence interval for p:
Confidence interval for
Goodness of Fit Test:
Z=
(X )
Z=
(X )
(n 1) s 2
2 / 2,n 1
=
2
2 =
< 2 <
i =1 j =1
(X )
s/ n
, known
s
n
, unknown
, where q = (1 p )
(n 1) s 2
12 / 2,n 1
( o i ei ) 2
,
ei
H
t=
/ n
2
(n 1)s
2 =
2
X z
< < X + z
2
2
n
n
s
X t ,n 1
< < X + t ,n 1
2
2
n
p q
p q
< p < p + z
p z
2
2
n
n
i =1
Independence Test:
Var(X) =
(oij eij ) 2
eij
df = K-1
df = (K-1)(H-1)
Sample Correlation Coefficient:

SS XY
r=
SS x SS y
R2 = 1 -
Coefficient of Determination:
X i Yi n X Y
X i2 n X
t=
(X
X )(Yi Y )
(X
X)
r n2
1 r 2
Least Squares Estimators of 1 and 0 in the equation:

SS XY
=
SS X
Yi2 n Y
SSE
SSE
=1SS Y
SST
Hypothesis tests on Correlation Coefficient:
1 =
Yi = 0 + 1 X i + ei
X iYi n X Y
X i2 n X
X iYi ( X i )( Yi )
n
X i2 ( X i )
0 = Y 1 X
Forecast Intervals:
Y p t
Y p t
where = (n 2) , SS X =
2
1 (X p X )
+
n
SS X
se
2
1 (X p X )
1+ +
n
SS X
se
for Yp
X 2 nX 2 and
n
ei
se =
for E(Yp Xp)
i =1
or
se =
(n 2 )
is the estimated standard error of the regression.
Yi 2 0
Yi 1
X iYi
(n 2)
Distribution of 0 and 1 :
0 N 0 , e
n
X i2
and
( X i X )2
1 N 1 ,
e2
(X i X )2
Table 1.
Binomial Probability: P(X = k)
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.55
0.60
0.65
0.70
0.75
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
0
1
2
0.9025
0.8100
0.7225
0.6400
0.5625
0.4900
0.4225
0.3600
0.3025
0.2500
0.2025
0.1600
0.1225
0.0900
0.0625
0.0400
0.0225
0.0100
0.0025
0.0950
0.1800
0.2550
0.3200
0.3750
0.4200
0.4550
0.4800
0.4950
0.5000
0.4950
0.4800
0.4550
0.4200
0.3750
0.3200
0.2550
0.1800
0.0950
0.0025
0.0100
0.0225
0.0400
0.0625
0.0900
0.1225
0.1600
0.2025
0.2500
0.3025
0.3600
0.4225
0.4900
0.5625
0.6400
0.7225
0.8100
0.9025
0
1
2
3
0.8574
0.7290
0.6141
0.5120
0.4219
0.3430
0.2746
0.2160
0.1664
0.1250
0.0911
0.0640
0.0429
0.0270
0.0156
0.0080
0.0034
0.0010
0.0001
0.1354
0.2430
0.3251
0.3840
0.4219
0.4410
0.4436
0.4320
0.4084
0.3750
0.3341
0.2880
0.2389
0.1890
0.1406
0.0960
0.0574
0.0270
0.0071
0.0071
0.0270
0.0574
0.0960
0.1406
0.1890
0.2389
0.2880
0.3341
0.3750
0.4084
0.4320
0.4436
0.4410
0.4219
0.3840
0.3251
0.2430
0.1354
0.0001
0.0010
0.0034
0.0080
0.0156
0.0270
0.0429
0.0640
0.0911
0.1250
0.1664
0.2160
0.2746
0.3430
0.4219
0.5120
0.6141
0.7290
0.8574
0
1
2
3
4
0.8145
0.6561
0.5220
0.4096
0.3164
0.2401
0.1785
0.1296
0.0915
0.0625
0.0410
0.0256
0.0150
0.0081
0.0039
0.0016
0.0005
0.0001
0.0000
0.1715
0.2916
0.3685
0.4096
0.4219
0.4116
0.3845
0.3456
0.2995
0.2500
0.2005
0.1536
0.1115
0.0756
0.0469
0.0256
0.0115
0.0036
0.0005
0.0135
0.0486
0.0975
0.1536
0.2109
0.2646
0.3105
0.3456
0.3675
0.3750
0.3675
0.3456
0.3105
0.2646
0.2109
0.1536
0.0975
0.0486
0.0135
0.0005
0.0036
0.0115
0.0256
0.0469
0.0756
0.1115
0.1536
0.2005
0.2500
0.2995
0.3456
0.3845
0.4116
0.4219
0.4096
0.3685
0.2916
0.1715
0.0000
0.0001
0.0005
0.0016
0.0039
0.0081
0.0150
0.0256
0.0410
0.0625
0.0915
0.1296
0.1785
0.2401
0.3164
0.4096
0.5220
0.6561
0.8145
0
1
2
3
4
5
0.7738
0.5905
0.4437
0.3277
0.2373
0.1681
0.1160
0.0778
0.0503
0.0313
0.0185
0.0102
0.0053
0.0024
0.0010
0.0003
0.0001
0.0000
0.0000
0.2036
0.3281
0.3915
0.4096
0.3955
0.3602
0.3124
0.2592
0.2059
0.1563
0.1128
0.0768
0.0488
0.0284
0.0146
0.0064
0.0022
0.0004
0.0000
0.0214
0.0729
0.1382
0.2048
0.2637
0.3087
0.3364
0.3456
0.3369
0.3125
0.2757
0.2304
0.1811
0.1323
0.0879
0.0512
0.0244
0.0081
0.0011
0.0011
0.0081
0.0244
0.0512
0.0879
0.1323
0.1811
0.2304
0.2757
0.3125
0.3369
0.3456
0.3364
0.3087
0.2637
0.2048
0.1382
0.0729
0.0214
0.0000
0.0005
0.0022
0.0064
0.0146
0.0284
0.0488
0.0768
0.1128
0.1563
0.2059
0.2592
0.3124
0.3602
0.3955
0.4096
0.3915
0.3281
0.2036
0.0000
0.0000
0.0001
0.0003
0.0010
0.0024
0.0053
0.0102
0.0185
0.0313
0.0503
0.0778
0.1160
0.1681
0.2373
0.3277
0.4437
0.5905
0.7738
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0.7351
0.5314
0.3771
0.2621
0.1780
0.1176
0.0754
0.0467
0.0277
0.0156
0.0083
0.0041
0.0018
0.0007
0.0002
0.0001
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.2321
0.3543
0.3993
0.3932
0.3560
0.3025
0.2437
0.1866
0.1359
0.0938
0.0609
0.0369
0.0205
0.0102
0.0044
0.0015
0.0004
0.0001
0.0000
0.0305
0.0984
0.1762
0.2458
0.2966
0.3241
0.3280
0.3110
0.2780
0.2344
0.1861
0.1382
0.0951
0.0595
0.0330
0.0154
0.0055
0.0012
0.0001
0.0021
0.0146
0.0415
0.0819
0.1318
0.1852
0.2355
0.2765
0.3032
0.3125
0.3032
0.2765
0.2355
0.1852
0.1318
0.0819
0.0415
0.0146
0.0021
0.0001
0.0012
0.0055
0.0154
0.0330
0.0595
0.0951
0.1382
0.1861
0.2344
0.2780
0.3110
0.3280
0.3241
0.2966
0.2458
0.1762
0.0984
0.0305
0.0000
0.0001
0.0004
0.0015
0.0044
0.0102
0.0205
0.0369
0.0609
0.0937
0.1359
0.1866
0.2437
0.3025
0.3560
0.3932
0.3993
0.3543
0.2321
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0001
0.0002
0.0007
0.0018
0.0041
0.0083
0.0156
0.0277
0.0467
0.0754
0.1176
0.1780
0.2621
0.3771
0.5314
0.7351
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0.6983
0.4783
0.3206
0.2097
0.1335
0.0824
0.0490
0.0280
0.0152
0.0078
0.0037
0.0016
0.0006
0.0002
0.0001
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.2573
0.3720
0.3960
0.3670
0.3115
0.2471
0.1848
0.1306
0.0872
0.0547
0.0320
0.0172
0.0084
0.0036
0.0013
0.0004
0.0001
0.0000
0.0000
0.0406
0.1240
0.2097
0.2753
0.3115
0.3177
0.2985
0.2613
0.2140
0.1641
0.1172
0.0774
0.0466
0.0250
0.0115
0.0043
0.0012
0.0002
0.0000
0.0036
0.0230
0.0617
0.1147
0.1730
0.2269
0.2679
0.2903
0.2918
0.2734
0.2388
0.1935
0.1442
0.0972
0.0577
0.0287
0.0109
0.0026
0.0002
0.0002
0.0026
0.0109
0.0287
0.0577
0.0972
0.1442
0.1935
0.2388
0.2734
0.2918
0.2903
0.2679
0.2269
0.1730
0.1147
0.0617
0.0230
0.0036
0.0000
0.0002
0.0012
0.0043
0.0115
0.0250
0.0466
0.0774
0.1172
0.1641
0.2140
0.2613
0.2985
0.3177
0.3115
0.2753
0.2097
0.1240
0.0406
0.0000
0.0000
0.0001
0.0004
0.0013
0.0036
0.0084
0.0172
0.0320
0.0547
0.0872
0.1306
0.1848
0.2471
0.3115
0.3670
0.3960
0.3720
0.2573
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0001
0.0002
0.0006
0.0016
0.0037
0.0078
0.0152
0.0280
0.0490
0.0824
0.1335
0.2097
0.3206
0.4783
0.6983
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0.6634
0.4305
0.2725
0.1678
0.1001
0.0576
0.0319
0.0168
0.0084
0.0039
0.0017
0.0007
0.0002
0.0001
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.2793
0.3826
0.3847
0.3355
0.2670
0.1977
0.1373
0.0896
0.0548
0.0313
0.0164
0.0079
0.0033
0.0012
0.0004
0.0001
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0515
0.1488
0.2376
0.2936
0.3115
0.2965
0.2587
0.2090
0.1569
0.1094
0.0703
0.0413
0.0217
0.0100
0.0038
0.0011
0.0002
0.0000
0.0000
0.0054
0.0331
0.0839
0.1468
0.2076
0.2541
0.2786
0.2787
0.2568
0.2188
0.1719
0.1239
0.0808
0.0467
0.0231
0.0092
0.0026
0.0004
0.0000
0.0004
0.0046
0.0185
0.0459
0.0865
0.1361
0.1875
0.2322
0.2627
0.2734
0.2627
0.2322
0.1875
0.1361
0.0865
0.0459
0.0185
0.0046
0.0004
0.0000
0.0004
0.0026
0.0092
0.0231
0.0467
0.0808
0.1239
0.1719
0.2188
0.2568
0.2787
0.2786
0.2541
0.2076
0.1468
0.0839
0.0331
0.0054
0.0000
0.0000
0.0002
0.0011
0.0038
0.0100
0.0217
0.0413
0.0703
0.1094
0.1569
0.2090
0.2587
0.2965
0.3115
0.2936
0.2376
0.1488
0.0515
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0001
0.0004
0.0012
0.0033
0.0079
0.0164
0.0313
0.0548
0.0896
0.1373
0.1977
0.2670
0.3355
0.3847
0.3826
0.2793
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0001
0.0002
0.0007
0.0017
0.0039
0.0084
0.0168
0.0319
0.0576
0.1001
0.1678
0.2725
0.4305
0.6634
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0.6302
0.3874
0.2316
0.1342
0.0751
0.0404
0.0207
0.0101
0.0046
0.0020
0.0008
0.0003
0.0001
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.2985
0.3874
0.3679
0.3020
0.2253
0.1556
0.1004
0.0605
0.0339
0.0176
0.0083
0.0035
0.0013
0.0004
0.0001
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0629
0.1722
0.2597
0.3020
0.3003
0.2668
0.2162
0.1612
0.1110
0.0703
0.0407
0.0212
0.0098
0.0039
0.0012
0.0003
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0077
0.0446
0.1069
0.1762
0.2336
0.2668
0.2716
0.2508
0.2119
0.1641
0.1160
0.0743
0.0424
0.0210
0.0087
0.0028
0.0006
0.0001
0.0000
0.0006
0.0074
0.0283
0.0661
0.1168
0.1715
0.2194
0.2508
0.2600
0.2461
0.2128
0.1672
0.1181
0.0735
0.0389
0.0165
0.0050
0.0008
0.0000
0.0000
0.0008
0.0050
0.0165
0.0389
0.0735
0.1181
0.1672
0.2128
0.2461
0.2600
0.2508
0.2194
0.1715
0.1168
0.0661
0.0283
0.0074
0.0006
0.0000
0.0001
0.0006
0.0028
0.0087
0.0210
0.0424
0.0743
0.1160
0.1641
0.2119
0.2508
0.2716
0.2668
0.2336
0.1762
0.1069
0.0446
0.0077
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0003
0.0012
0.0039
0.0098
0.0212
0.0407
0.0703
0.1110
0.1612
0.2162
0.2668
0.3003
0.3020
0.2597
0.1722
0.0629
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0001
0.0004
0.0013
0.0035
0.0083
0.0176
0.0339
0.0605
0.1004
0.1556
0.2253
0.3020
0.3679
0.3874
0.2985
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0001
0.0003
0.0008
0.0020
0.0046
0.0101
0.0207
0.0404
0.0751
0.1342
0.2316
0.3874
0.6302
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0.5987
0.3487
0.1969
0.1074
0.0563
0.0282
0.0135
0.0060
0.0025
0.0010
0.0003
0.0001
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.3151
0.3874
0.3474
0.2684
0.1877
0.1211
0.0725
0.0403
0.0207
0.0098
0.0042
0.0016
0.0005
0.0001
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0746
0.1937
0.2759
0.3020
0.2816
0.2335
0.1757
0.1209
0.0763
0.0439
0.0229
0.0106
0.0043
0.0014
0.0004
0.0001
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0105
0.0574
0.1298
0.2013
0.2503
0.2668
0.2522
0.2150
0.1665
0.1172
0.0746
0.0425
0.0212
0.0090
0.0031
0.0008
0.0001
0.0000
0.0000
0.0010
0.0112
0.0401
0.0881
0.1460
0.2001
0.2377
0.2508
0.2384
0.2051
0.1596
0.1115
0.0689
0.0368
0.0162
0.0055
0.0012
0.0001
0.0000
0.0001
0.0015
0.0085
0.0264
0.0584
0.1029
0.1536
0.2007
0.2340
0.2461
0.2340
0.2007
0.1536
0.1029
0.0584
0.0264
0.0085
0.0015
0.0001
0.0000
0.0001
0.0012
0.0055
0.0162
0.0368
0.0689
0.1115
0.1596
0.2051
0.2384
0.2508
0.2377
0.2001
0.1460
0.0881
0.0401
0.0112
0.0010
0.0000
0.0000
0.0001
0.0008
0.0031
0.0090
0.0212
0.0425
0.0746
0.1172
0.1665
0.2150
0.2522
0.2668
0.2503
0.2013
0.1298
0.0574
0.0105
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0001
0.0004
0.0014
0.0043
0.0106
0.0229
0.0439
0.0763
0.1209
0.1757
0.2335
0.2816
0.3020
0.2759
0.1937
0.0746
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0001
0.0005
0.0016
0.0042
0.0098
0.0207
0.0403
0.0725
0.1211
0.1877
0.2684
0.3474
0.3874
0.3151
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0001
0.0003
0.0010
0.0025
0.0060
0.0135
0.0282
0.0563
0.1074
0.1969
0.3487
0.5987
10
10
Table 2. (Cumulative Probabilities)

Binomial Probability: P(X
k)
k 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.50 0.55 0.60 0.65 0.70 0.75 0.80 0.85 0.90 0.95
0
1
0.9025
0.8100
0.7225
0.6400
0.5625
0.4900
0.4225
0.3600
0.3025
0.2500
0.2025
0.1600
0.1225
0.0900
0.0625
0.0400
0.0225
0.0100
0.0025
0.9975
0.9900
0.9775
0.9600
0.9375
0.9100
0.8775
0.8400
0.7975
0.7500
0.6975
0.6400
0.5775
0.5100
0.4375
0.3600
0.2775
0.1900
0.0975
0
1
2
0.8574
0.7290
0.6141
0.5120
0.4219
0.3430
0.2746
0.2160
0.1664
0.1250
0.0911
0.0640
0.0429
0.0270
0.0156
0.0080
0.0034
0.0010
0.0001
0.9928
0.9720
0.9393
0.8960
0.8438
0.7840
0.7183
0.6480
0.5748
0.5000
0.4253
0.3520
0.2818
0.2160
0.1563
0.1040
0.0607
0.0280
0.0072
0.9999
0.9990
0.9966
0.9920
0.9844
0.9730
0.9571
0.9360
0.9089
0.8750
0.8336
0.7840
0.7254
0.6570
0.5781
0.4880
0.3859
0.2710
0.1426
0
1
2
3
0.8145
0.6561
0.5220
0.4096
0.3164
0.2401
0.1785
0.1296
0.0915
0.0625
0.0410
0.0256
0.0150
0.0081
0.0039
0.0016
0.0005
0.0001
0.0000
0.9860
0.9477
0.8905
0.8192
0.7383
0.6517
0.5630
0.4752
0.3910
0.3125
0.2415
0.1792
0.1265
0.0837
0.0508
0.0272
0.0120
0.0037
0.0005
0.9995
0.9963
0.9880
0.9728
0.9492
0.9163
0.8735
0.8208
0.7585
0.6875
0.6090
0.5248
0.4370
0.3483
0.2617
0.1808
0.1095
0.0523
0.0140
1.0000
0.9999
0.9995
0.9984
0.9961
0.9919
0.9850
0.9744
0.9590
0.9375
0.9085
0.8704
0.8215
0.7599
0.6836
0.5904
0.4780
0.3439
0.1855
0
1
2
3
4
0.7738
0.5905
0.4437
0.3277
0.2373
0.1681
0.1160
0.0778
0.0503
0.0313
0.0185
0.0102
0.0053
0.0024
0.0010
0.0003
0.0001
0.0000
0.0000
0.9774
0.9185
0.8352
0.7373
0.6328
0.5282
0.4284
0.3370
0.2562
0.1875
0.1312
0.0870
0.0540
0.0308
0.0156
0.0067
0.0022
0.0005
0.0000
0.9988
0.9914
0.9734
0.9421
0.8965
0.8369
0.7648
0.6826
0.5931
0.5000
0.4069
0.3174
0.2352
0.1631
0.1035
0.0579
0.0266
0.0086
0.0012
1.0000
0.9995
0.9978
0.9933
0.9844
0.9692
0.9460
0.9130
0.8688
0.8125
0.7438
0.6630
0.5716
0.4718
0.3672
0.2627
0.1648
0.0815
0.0226
1.0000
1.0000
0.9999
0.9997
0.9990
0.9976
0.9947
0.9898
0.9815
0.9688
0.9497
0.9222
0.8840
0.8319
0.7627
0.6723
0.5563
0.4095
0.2262
0
1
2
3
4
5
0.7351
0.5314
0.3771
0.2621
0.1780
0.1176
0.0754
0.0467
0.0277
0.0156
0.0083
0.0041
0.0018
0.0007
0.0002
0.0001
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.9672
0.8857
0.7765
0.6554
0.5339
0.4202
0.3191
0.2333
0.1636
0.1094
0.0692
0.0410
0.0223
0.0109
0.0046
0.0016
0.0004
0.0001
0.0000
0.9978
0.9842
0.9527
0.9011
0.8306
0.7443
0.6471
0.5443
0.4415
0.3438
0.2553
0.1792
0.1174
0.0705
0.0376
0.0170
0.0059
0.0013
0.0001
0.9999
0.9987
0.9941
0.9830
0.9624
0.9295
0.8826
0.8208
0.7447
0.6563
0.5585
0.4557
0.3529
0.2557
0.1694
0.0989
0.0473
0.0158
0.0022
1.0000
0.9999
0.9996
0.9984
0.9954
0.9891
0.9777
0.9590
0.9308
0.8906
0.8364
0.7667
0.6809
0.5798
0.4661
0.3446
0.2235
0.1143
0.0328
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
0.9999
0.9998
0.9993
0.9982
0.9959
0.9917
0.9844
0.9723
0.9533
0.9246
0.8824
0.8220
0.7379
0.6229
0.4686
0.2649
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0.6983
0.4783
0.3206
0.2097
0.1335
0.0824
0.0490
0.0280
0.0152
0.0078
0.0037
0.0016
0.0006
0.0002
0.0001
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.9556
0.8503
0.7166
0.5767
0.4449
0.3294
0.2338
0.1586
0.1024
0.0625
0.0357
0.0188
0.0090
0.0038
0.0013
0.0004
0.0001
0.0000
0.0000
0.9962
0.9743
0.9262
0.8520
0.7564
0.6471
0.5323
0.4199
0.3164
0.2266
0.1529
0.0963
0.0556
0.0288
0.0129
0.0047
0.0012
0.0002
0.0000
0.9998
0.9973
0.9879
0.9667
0.9294
0.8740
0.8002
0.7102
0.6083
0.5000
0.3917
0.2898
0.1998
0.1260
0.0706
0.0333
0.0121
0.0027
0.0002
1.0000
0.9998
0.9988
0.9953
0.9871
0.9712
0.9444
0.9037
0.8471
0.7734
0.6836
0.5801
0.4677
0.3529
0.2436
0.1480
0.0738
0.0257
0.0038
1.0000
1.0000
0.9999
0.9996
0.9987
0.9962
0.9910
0.9812
0.9643
0.9375
0.8976
0.8414
0.7662
0.6706
0.5551
0.4233
0.2834
0.1497
0.0444
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
0.9999
0.9998
0.9994
0.9984
0.9963
0.9922
0.9848
0.9720
0.9510
0.9176
0.8665
0.7903
0.6794
0.5217
0.3017
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0.6634
0.4305
0.2725
0.1678
0.1001
0.0576
0.0319
0.0168
0.0084
0.0039
0.0017
0.0007
0.0002
0.0001
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.9428
0.8131
0.6572
0.5033
0.3671
0.2553
0.1691
0.1064
0.0632
0.0352
0.0181
0.0085
0.0036
0.0013
0.0004
0.0001
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.9942
0.9619
0.8948
0.7969
0.6785
0.5518
0.4278
0.3154
0.2201
0.1445
0.0885
0.0498
0.0253
0.0113
0.0042
0.0012
0.0002
0.0000
0.0000
0.9996
0.9950
0.9786
0.9437
0.8862
0.8059
0.7064
0.5941
0.4770
0.3633
0.2604
0.1737
0.1061
0.0580
0.0273
0.0104
0.0029
0.0004
0.0000
1.0000
0.9996
0.9971
0.9896
0.9727
0.9420
0.8939
0.8263
0.7396
0.6367
0.5230
0.4059
0.2936
0.1941
0.1138
0.0563
0.0214
0.0050
0.0004
1.0000
1.0000
0.9998
0.9988
0.9958
0.9887
0.9747
0.9502
0.9115
0.8555
0.7799
0.6846
0.5722
0.4482
0.3215
0.2031
0.1052
0.0381
0.0058
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
0.9999
0.9996
0.9987
0.9964
0.9915
0.9819
0.9648
0.9368
0.8936
0.8309
0.7447
0.6329
0.4967
0.3428
0.1869
0.0572
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
0.9999
0.9998
0.9993
0.9983
0.9961
0.9916
0.9832
0.9681
0.9424
0.8999
0.8322
0.7275
0.5695
0.3366
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0.6302
0.3874
0.2316
0.1342
0.0751
0.0404
0.0207
0.0101
0.0046
0.0020
0.0008
0.0003
0.0001
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.9288
0.7748
0.5995
0.4362
0.3003
0.1960
0.1211
0.0705
0.0385
0.0195
0.0091
0.0038
0.0014
0.0004
0.0001
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.9916
0.9470
0.8591
0.7382
0.6007
0.4628
0.3373
0.2318
0.1495
0.0898
0.0498
0.0250
0.0112
0.0043
0.0013
0.0003
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.9994
0.9917
0.9661
0.9144
0.8343
0.7297
0.6089
0.4826
0.3614
0.2539
0.1658
0.0994
0.0536
0.0253
0.0100
0.0031
0.0006
0.0001
0.0000
1.0000
0.9991
0.9944
0.9804
0.9511
0.9012
0.8283
0.7334
0.6214
0.5000
0.3786
0.2666
0.1717
0.0988
0.0489
0.0196
0.0056
0.0009
0.0000
1.0000
0.9999
0.9994
0.9969
0.9900
0.9747
0.9464
0.9006
0.8342
0.7461
0.6386
0.5174
0.3911
0.2703
0.1657
0.0856
0.0339
0.0083
0.0006
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
0.9997
0.9987
0.9957
0.9888
0.9750
0.9502
0.9102
0.8505
0.7682
0.6627
0.5372
0.3993
0.2618
0.1409
0.0530
0.0084
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
0.9999
0.9996
0.9986
0.9962
0.9909
0.9805
0.9615
0.9295
0.8789
0.8040
0.6997
0.5638
0.4005
0.2252
0.0712
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
0.9999
0.9997
0.9992
0.9980
0.9954
0.9899
0.9793
0.9596
0.9249
0.8658
0.7684
0.6126
0.3698
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0.5987
0.3487
0.1969
0.1074
0.0563
0.0282
0.0135
0.0060
0.0025
0.0010
0.0003
0.0001
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.9139
0.7361
0.5443
0.3758
0.2440
0.1493
0.0860
0.0464
0.0233
0.0107
0.0045
0.0017
0.0005
0.0001
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.9885
0.9298
0.8202
0.6778
0.5256
0.3828
0.2616
0.1673
0.0996
0.0547
0.0274
0.0123
0.0048
0.0016
0.0004
0.0001
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.9990
0.9872
0.9500
0.8791
0.7759
0.6496
0.5138
0.3823
0.2660
0.1719
0.1020
0.0548
0.0260
0.0106
0.0035
0.0009
0.0001
0.0000
0.0000
0.9999
0.9984
0.9901
0.9672
0.9219
0.8497
0.7515
0.6331
0.5044
0.3770
0.2616
0.1662
0.0949
0.0473
0.0197
0.0064
0.0014
0.0001
0.0000
1.0000
0.9999
0.9986
0.9936
0.9803
0.9527
0.9051
0.8338
0.7384
0.6230
0.4956
0.3669
0.2485
0.1503
0.0781
0.0328
0.0099
0.0016
0.0001
1.0000
1.0000
0.9999
0.9991
0.9965
0.9894
0.9740
0.9452
0.8980
0.8281
0.7340
0.6177
0.4862
0.3504
0.2241
0.1209
0.0500
0.0128
0.0010
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
0.9999
0.9996
0.9984
0.9952
0.9877
0.9726
0.9453
0.9004
0.8327
0.7384
0.6172
0.4744
0.3222
0.1798
0.0702
0.0115
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
0.9999
0.9995
0.9983
0.9955
0.9893
0.9767
0.9536
0.9140
0.8507
0.7560
0.6242
0.4557
0.2639
0.0861
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
0.9999
0.9997
0.9990
0.9975
0.9940
0.9865
0.9718
0.9437
0.8926
0.8031
0.6513
0.4013
10
11
Table 3.
Poisson Probability: P(X
k
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
k)
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10
11
12
13
14
15
0.905
0.819
0.741
0.670
0.607
0.368
0.223
0.135
0.082
0.050
0.030
0.018
0.011
0.007
0.004
0.002
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.995
0.982
0.963
0.938
0.910
0.736
0.558
0.406
0.287
0.199
0.136
0.092
0.061
0.040
0.027
0.017
0.011
0.007
0.005
0.003
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
1.000
0.999
0.996
0.992
0.986
0.920
0.809
0.677
0.544
0.423
0.321
0.238
0.174
0.125
0.088
0.062
0.043
0.030
0.020
0.014
0.009
0.006
0.004
0.003
0.001
0.001
0.000
0.000
0.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
0.999
0.998
0.981
0.934
0.857
0.758
0.647
0.537
0.433
0.342
0.265
0.202
0.151
0.112
0.082
0.059
0.042
0.030
0.021
0.015
0.010
0.005
0.002
0.001
0.000
0.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
0.996
0.981
0.947
0.891
0.815
0.725
0.629
0.532
0.440
0.358
0.285
0.224
0.173
0.132
0.100
0.074
0.055
0.040
0.029
0.015
0.008
0.004
0.002
0.001
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
0.999
0.996
0.983
0.958
0.916
0.858
0.785
0.703
0.616
0.529
0.446
0.369
0.301
0.241
0.191
0.150
0.116
0.089
0.067
0.038
0.020
0.011
0.006
0.003
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
0.999
0.995
0.986
0.966
0.935
0.889
0.831
0.762
0.686
0.606
0.527
0.450
0.378
0.313
0.256
0.207
0.165
0.130
0.079
0.046
0.026
0.014
0.008
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
0.999
0.996
0.988
0.973
0.949
0.913
0.867
0.809
0.744
0.673
0.599
0.525
0.453
0.386
0.324
0.269
0.220
0.143
0.090
0.054
0.032
0.018
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
0.999
0.996
0.990
0.979
0.960
0.932
0.894
0.847
0.792
0.729
0.662
0.593
0.523
0.456
0.392
0.333
0.232
0.155
0.100
0.062
0.037
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
0.999
0.997
0.992
0.983
0.968
0.946
0.916
0.877
0.830
0.776
0.717
0.653
0.587
0.522
0.458
0.341
0.242
0.166
0.109
0.070
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
0.999
0.997
0.993
0.986
0.975
0.957
0.933
0.901
0.862
0.816
0.763
0.706
0.645
0.583
0.460
0.347
0.252
0.176
0.118
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
0.999
0.998
0.995
0.989
0.980
0.966
0.947
0.921
0.888
0.849
0.803
0.752
0.697
0.579
0.462
0.353
0.260
0.185
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
0.999
0.998
0.996
0.991
0.984
0.973
0.957
0.936
0.909
0.876
0.836
0.792
0.689
0.576
0.463
0.358
0.268
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
0.999
0.998
0.996
0.993
0.987
0.978
0.966
0.949
0.926
0.898
0.864
0.781
0.682
0.573
0.464
0.363
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
0.999
0.999
0.997
0.994
0.990
0.983
0.973
0.959
0.940
0.917
0.854
0.772
0.675
0.570
0.466
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
0.999
0.999
0.998
0.995
0.992
0.986
0.978
0.967
0.951
0.907
0.844
0.764
0.669
0.568
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
0.999
0.998
0.996
0.993
0.989
0.982
0.973
0.944
0.899
0.835
0.756
0.664
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
0.999
0.998
0.997
0.995
0.991
0.986
0.968
0.937
0.890
0.827
0.749
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
0.999
0.999
0.998
0.996
0.993
0.982
0.963
0.930
0.883
0.819
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
0.999
0.999
0.998
0.997
0.991
0.979
0.957
0.923
0.875
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
0.999
0.998
0.995
0.988
0.975
0.952
0.917
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
0.999
0.998
0.994
0.986
0.971
0.947
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
0.999
0.997
0.992
0.983
0.967
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
0.999
0.996
0.991
0.981
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
0.999
0.998
0.995
0.989
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
0.999
0.997
0.994
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
0.999
0.997
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
0.999
0.998
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
0.999
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
12
Table 4.
Standard Normal Probabilities: P(0
z)
z
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.8
3.9
0.0000
0.0040
0.0080
0.0120
0.0160
0.0199
0.0239
0.0279
0.0319
0.0359
0.0398
0.0438
0.0478
0.0517
0.0557
0.0596
0.0636
0.0675
0.0714
0.0753
0.0793
0.0832
0.0871
0.0910
0.0948
0.0987
0.1026
0.1064
0.1103
0.1141
0.1179
0.1217
0.1255
0.1293
0.1331
0.1368
0.1406
0.1443
0.1480
0.1517
0.1554
0.1591
0.1628
0.1664
0.1700
0.1736
0.1772
0.1808
0.1844
0.1879
0.1915
0.1950
0.1985
0.2019
0.2054
0.2088
0.2123
0.2157
0.2190
0.2224
0.2257
0.2291
0.2324
0.2357
0.2389
0.2422
0.2454
0.2486
0.2517
0.2549
0.2580
0.2611
0.2642
0.2673
0.2704
0.2734
0.2764
0.2794
0.2823
0.2852
0.2881
0.2910
0.2939
0.2967
0.2995
0.3023
0.3051
0.3078
0.3106
0.3133
0.3159
0.3186
0.3212
0.3238
0.3264
0.3289
0.3315
0.3340
0.3365
0.3389
0.3413
0.3438
0.3461
0.3485
0.3508
0.3531
0.3554
0.3577
0.3599
0.3621
0.3643
0.3665
0.3686
0.3708
0.3729
0.3749
0.3770
0.3790
0.3810
0.3830
0.3849
0.3869
0.3888
0.3907
0.3925
0.3944
0.3962
0.3980
0.3997
0.4015
0.4032
0.4049
0.4066
0.4082
0.4099
0.4115
0.4131
0.4147
0.4162
0.4177
0.4192
0.4207
0.4222
0.4236
0.4251
0.4265
0.4279
0.4292
0.4306
0.4319
0.4332
0.4345
0.4357
0.4370
0.4382
0.4394
0.4406
0.4418
0.4429
0.4441
0.4452
0.4463
0.4474
0.4484
0.4495
0.4505
0.4515
0.4525
0.4535
0.4545
0.4554
0.4564
0.4573
0.4582
0.4591
0.4599
0.4608
0.4616
0.4625
0.4633
0.4641
0.4649
0.4656
0.4664
0.4671
0.4678
0.4686
0.4693
0.4699
0.4706
0.4713
0.4719
0.4726
0.4732
0.4738
0.4744
0.4750
0.4756
0.4761
0.4767
0.4772
0.4778
0.4783
0.4788
0.4793
0.4798
0.4803
0.4808
0.4812
0.4817
0.4821
0.4826
0.4830
0.4834
0.4838
0.4842
0.4846
0.4850
0.4854
0.4857
0.4861
0.4864
0.4868
0.4871
0.4875
0.4878
0.4881
0.4884
0.4887
0.4890
0.4893
0.4896
0.4898
0.4901
0.4904
0.4906
0.4909
0.4911
0.4913
0.4916
0.4918
0.4920
0.4922
0.4925
0.4927
0.4929
0.4931
0.4932
0.4934
0.4936
0.4938
0.4940
0.4941
0.4943
0.4945
0.4946
0.4948
0.4949
0.4951
0.4952
0.4953
0.4955
0.4956
0.4957
0.4959
0.4960
0.4961
0.4962
0.4963
0.4964
0.4965
0.4966
0.4967
0.4968
0.4969
0.4970
0.4971
0.4972
0.4973
0.4974
0.4974
0.4975
0.4976
0.4977
0.4977
0.4978
0.4979
0.4979
0.4980
0.4981
0.4981
0.4982
0.4982
0.4983
0.4984
0.4984
0.4985
0.4985
0.4986
0.4986
0.4987
0.4987
0.4987
0.4988
0.4988
0.4989
0.4989
0.4989
0.4990
0.4990
0.4990
0.4991
0.4991
0.4991
0.4992
0.4992
0.4992
0.4992
0.4993
0.4993
0.4993
0.4993
0.4994
0.4994
0.4994
0.4994
0.4994
0.4995
0.4995
0.4995
0.4995
0.4995
0.4995
0.4996
0.4996
0.4996
0.4996
0.4996
0.4996
0.4997
0.4997
0.4997
0.4997
0.4997
0.4997
0.4997
0.4997
0.4997
0.4997
0.4998
0.4998
0.4998
0.4998
0.4998
0.4998
0.4998
0.4998
0.4998
0.4998
0.4998
0.4998
0.4998
0.4999
0.4999
0.4999
0.4999
0.4999
0.4999
0.4999
0.4999
0.4999
0.4999
0.4999
0.4999
0.4999
0.4999
0.4999
0.4999
0.4999
0.4999
0.4999
0.4999
0.4999
0.4999
0.4999
0.4999
0.4999
0.4999
0.4999
0.4999
0.5000
0.5000
0.5000
0.5000
0.5000
0.5000
0.5000
0.5000
0.5000
0.5000
13
Table 5.
Upper-tail Critical Values of t-Distribution: t( , )
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
40
60
120
0.100
0.050
0.025
0.010
0.005
3.078
6.314
12.706
31.821
63.657
1.886
2.920
4.303
6.965
9.925
1.638
2.353
3.182
4.541
5.841
1.533
2.132
2.776
3.747
4.604
1.476
2.015
2.571
3.365
4.032
1.440
1.943
2.447
3.143
3.707
1.415
1.895
2.365
2.998
3.499
1.397
1.860
2.306
2.896
3.355
1.383
1.833
2.262
2.821
3.250
1.372
1.812
2.228
2.764
3.169
1.363
1.796
2.201
2.718
3.106
1.356
1.782
2.179
2.681
3.055
1.350
1.771
2.160
2.650
3.012
1.345
1.761
2.145
2.624
2.977
1.341
1.753
2.131
2.602
2.947
1.337
1.746
2.120
2.583
2.921
1.333
1.740
2.110
2.567
2.898
1.330
1.734
2.101
2.552
2.878
1.328
1.729
2.093
2.539
2.861
1.325
1.725
2.086
2.528
2.845
1.323
1.721
2.080
2.518
2.831
1.321
1.717
2.074
2.508
2.819
1.319
1.714
2.069
2.500
2.807
1.318
1.711
2.064
2.492
2.797
1.316
1.708
2.060
2.485
2.787
1.315
1.706
2.056
2.479
2.779
1.314
1.703
2.052
2.473
2.771
1.313
1.701
2.048
2.467
2.763
1.311
1.699
2.045
2.462
2.756
1.310
1.697
2.042
2.457
2.750
1.303
1.684
2.021
2.423
2.704
1.296
1.671
2.000
2.390
2.660
1.289
1.658
1.980
2.358
2.617
1.282
1.645
1.960
2.326
2.576
14
Table 6.
Upper-tail Chi-square Critical Values: 2( , )
Chi2
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0.995
0.99
0.975
0.95
0.9
0.1
0.05
0.025
0.01
0.005
3.93E-05
0.0002
0.0010
0.0039
0.0158
2.7055
3.8415
5.0239
6.6349
7.8794
0.0100
0.0201
0.0506
0.1026
0.2107
4.6052
5.9915
7.3778
9.2103
10.5966
0.0717
0.1148
0.2158
0.3518
0.5844
6.2514
7.8147
9.3484
11.3449
12.8382
0.2070
0.2971
0.4844
0.7107
1.0636
7.7794
9.4877
11.1433
13.2767
14.8603
0.4117
0.5543
0.8312
1.1455
1.6103
9.2364
11.0705
12.8325
15.0863
16.7496
0.6757
0.8721
1.2373
1.6354
2.2041
10.6446
12.5916
14.4494
16.8119
18.5476
0.9893
1.2390
1.6899
2.1673
2.8331
12.0170
14.0671
16.0128
18.4753
20.2777
1.3444
1.6465
2.1797
2.7326
3.4895
13.3616
15.5073
17.5345
20.0902
21.9550
1.7349
2.0879
2.7004
3.3251
4.1682
14.6837
16.9190
19.0228
21.6660
23.5894
2.1559
2.5582
3.2470
3.9403
4.8652
15.9872
18.3070
20.4832
23.2093
25.1882
2.6032
3.0535
3.8157
4.5748
5.5778
17.2750
19.6751
21.9200
24.7250
26.7568
3.0738
3.5706
4.4038
5.2260
6.3038
18.5493
21.0261
23.3367
26.2170
28.2995
3.5650
4.1069
5.0088
5.8919
7.0415
19.8119
22.3620
24.7356
27.6882
29.8195
4.0747
4.6604
5.6287
6.5706
7.7895
21.0641
23.6848
26.1189
29.1412
31.3193
4.6009
5.2293
6.2621
7.2609
8.5468
22.3071
24.9958
27.4884
30.5779
32.8013
5.1422
5.8122
6.9077
7.9616
9.3122
23.5418
26.2962
28.8454
31.9999
34.2672
5.6972
6.4078
7.5642
8.6718
10.0852
24.7690
27.5871
30.1910
33.4087
35.7185
6.2648
7.0149
8.2307
9.3905
10.8649
25.9894
28.8693
31.5264
34.8053
37.1565
6.8440
7.6327
8.9065
10.1170
11.6509
27.2036
30.1435
32.8523
36.1909
38.5823
7.4338
8.2604
9.5908
10.8508
12.4426
28.4120
31.4104
34.1696
37.5662
39.9968
8.0337
8.8972
10.2829
11.5913
13.2396
29.6151
32.6706
35.4789
38.9322
41.4011
8.6427
9.5425
10.9823
12.3380
14.0415
30.8133
33.9244
36.7807
40.2894
42.7957
9.2604
10.1957
11.6886
13.0905
14.8480
32.0069
35.1725
38.0756
41.6384
44.1813
9.8862
10.8564
12.4012
13.8484
15.6587
33.1962
36.4150
39.3641
42.9798
45.5585
10.5197
11.5240
13.1197
14.6114
16.4734
34.3816
37.6525
40.6465
44.3141
46.9279
11.1602
12.1981
13.8439
15.3792
17.2919
35.5632
38.8851
41.9232
45.6417
48.2899
11.8076
12.8785
14.5734
16.1514
18.1139
36.7412
40.1133
43.1945
46.9629
49.6449
12.4613
13.5647
15.3079
16.9279
18.9392
37.9159
41.3371
44.4608
48.2782
50.9934
13.1211
14.2565
16.0471
17.7084
19.7677
39.0875
42.5570
45.7223
49.5879
52.3356
13.7867
14.9535
16.7908
18.4927
20.5992
40.2560
43.7730
46.9792
50.8922
53.6720
20.7065
22.1643
24.4330
26.5093
29.0505
51.8051
55.7585
59.3417
63.6907
66.7660
27.9907
29.7067
32.3574
34.7643
37.6886
63.1671
67.5048
71.4202
76.1539
79.4900
35.5345
37.4849
40.4817
43.1880
46.4589
74.3970
79.0819
83.2977
88.3794
91.9517
43.2752
45.4417
48.7576
51.7393
55.3289
85.5270
90.5312
95.0232
100.4252
104.2149
51.1719
53.5401
57.1532
60.3915
64.2778
96.5782
101.8795
106.6286
112.3288
116.3211
59.1963
61.7541
65.6466
69.1260
73.2911
107.5650
113.1453
118.1359
124.1163
128.2989
67.3276
70.0649
74.2219
77.9295
82.3581
118.4980
124.3421
129.5612
135.8067
140.1695
15

ECON1203 2007 Exam

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ECON1203 2007 Exam

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THE UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES

Time allowed: Three hours.

There are FIVE questions in this examination.

Question 1 [10 marks in total]

To estimate the mean percentage change in annual ad expenditure for companies

Suppose that the percentage change in ad expenditure follows a normal

What is the statistical interpretation for the numerical result in (i).

Suppose that you do not believe the percentage change in ad expenditure

Suppose that the percentage change in ad expenditure follows a normal

Suppose that the percentage change in ad expenditure follows a normal

Question 2 [9 marks in total]

Suppose that only 5% of Sydney residents are responsive to telemarketers in the

Let X be the number of responsive residents out of 10 residents being

Use an appropriate approximation to find the probability that more than 3

Use an appropriate approximation to find the probability that more than 8

A randomly-selected company may be classified by whether or not it prioritized

What is the probability that a randomly-selected company neither

Given that a randomly-selected company did not prioritize employee

Are the two events a randomly-selected company provided advanced

Question 3 [11 marks in total]

Question 4 [13 marks in total]

For the simple linear regression model Yi = 0 + 1 X i + i to be valid, the error

The following summary output (Table 1) is from a regression equation estimated

Coefficients Standard Error

What is the interpretation of the parameter 1. [1 mark]

Question 5 [12 marks in total]

Daily Births 1/05/04 to 31/08/04

Table 2 Linear Regression Results for Daily Births*

Dependent variable: DailyBirths

Births t = 0 + 1 July1Dt + 2 WeekenDt + t ,

How would you interpret the parameters in Model 2? [3 marks]

Additive Law of Probability:

Multiplicative Law of Probability: P( A B) = P( A B ) P ( B) = P( B A) P( A)

Confidence intervals for :

Confidence interval for p:

Confidence interval for

Goodness of Fit Test:

Sample Correlation Coefficient:

Least Squares Estimators of 1 and 0 in the equation:

Hypothesis tests on Correlation Coefficient:

for E(Yp Xp)

Binomial Probability: P(X = k)

Table 2. (Cumulative Probabilities)

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