For July 14, 2014

A Sharekhan technical research newsletter

Punters Call

Beaten by bears
Market on July 11, 2014: Resistance @ 7540

Nifty daily: 7459

7900

Bears hit a century again leading to bloodshed in Dalal

Street. After opening at 7584 the Nifty dropped 108
points and closed at 7459. The index had broken the
rising wedge pattern and closed below the 20-day moving
average (DMA), ie the short-term moving average, earlier
in the week. But today it took support at the 40-day
exponential moving average, which is a very crucial
short-term support as below that we can see more selling
pressure. We maintain our short-term bias down for a
target of 7350. Since the Nifty has broken the swings
low of the previous five-wave fall, the probability of it
going down is quite high. Below the 23.6% retracement
level, ie our short-term target, we can expect the index
to head towards the 38.2% retracement level. The overall
set-up along with a sell cross-over on its daily momentum
indicator is clearly indicating weakness. The Bank Nifty
too has broken the 14600 level, which indicates that it
is heading towards 38.2% retracement level of its
previous fall which comes to 13500 level.

7850
7800
7750
7700
7650
7600
7550
7500
7450
7400
7350
7300
7250
7200
7150
7100
7050
7000
6

KST (- 0.48594)

5
4
3
2
1
0
19

26

2
June

16

23

30

14

21

28

July

60-minute
7850

7800

7750

7700

7650

7600

Other technical observations

7550

7500

On the daily chart the index is trading between the 20DMA and the 40-DMA, ie 7594 and 7450 respectively. The
momentum indicator is trading in negative mode on the
daily chart.

7450

KST (- 1.30662)
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
13

On the hourly chart, the Nifty is trading below the 20hour moving average (HMA) and the 40-HMA, ie 7566
and 7607 respectively, which are crucial intra-day levels.
The hourly momentum indicator has turned negative.
The market breadth was negative with 229 advances and
1,300 declines on the National Stock Exchange.

16

17

18

19

20

23

24

25

26

27

30

1
July

10

11

12

13

Market breadth
BSE
Advances
Decline
Unchanged
Volume (Rs)

NSE

711

229

2,215

1,300

80

34

3,759 cr

19,288 cr

For Private Circulation only

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Looking Trendy

Short Term Trend

Target
Sensex

Trend

24680

Nifty

Reversal




7370

Support / Resistance

Up above 26190

24680 / 26190

Up above 7810

7370 / 7810

Medium Term Trend

Target
Sensex

27100

Nifty

8050

Trend




Up

Reversal

Support / Resistance

Down below 24150

24150 / 27100

Down below 7100

7100 / 8050

Icon guide
Down

Upswing matures

Downswing matures

Trendy Levels for Tomorrow

Sensex
Support

Nifty
Resistance

24942
25300
18800
19300
24790
25388
18693
19700
24680
25508
18182
20062
20DSMA
40DEMA
20DSMA
40DEMA
25411
24942
20390
19941
BSE Sensex: 25,024
BSE Sensex: 19013

For Private Circulation only

Eagle Eye

Support

Resistance

7415
5700
7370
5616
7300
5514
20DSMA
20DSMA
7549
6096

7537
5847
7566
5993
7607
6078
40DEMA
40DEMA
7450
5958

July 14, 2014

Nifty: 7,459
Nifty: 5705

Home

Smart Charts
Date

Recommendation

Action

11-Jul-14
11-Jul-14
11-Jul-14
11-Jul-14
10-Jul-14
1-Jul-14

IOC (Jul Fut)

Shriram Transport (Jul Fut)
Tata Steel (Jul Fut)
Ambuja Cement (Jul Fut)
Bharti Airtel (Jul Fut)
ZEEL (Jul Fut)

Stop Loss/
Reversal
(Intra-day)

Stop Loss/
Reversal
DCL

Buy/Sell
Price

356.15
916.00
525.00
222.00
348.00
282.00

337.15
866.25
491.00
212.10
332.90
303.00

Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Buy

Closing
Price
(CMP)
333.35
859.95
492.00
213.50
335.70
296.90

Potential %
P/L at CMP

Targets

1.13%
0.73%
-0.20%
-0.66%
-0.84%
-2.01%

294-280
800-694
476-462
200-183
306-290
335-350

NOTE: Kindly note that all stop losses in Smart Charts Calls are on closing basis unless specified.
TPB: Trailing profit booked

Premium Technical Synopsis

Calls

Action
date

Action Segments

Polaris

4-Jul-14

Buy

Cash

Jet Airways

4-Jul-14

Buy

Cash

TCS
Eros Int Media

4-Jul-14
5-Jun-14

Buy
Buy

Cash
Cash

*DCL

# CMP

^Intra-day

For Private Circulation only

Stop loss/
Reversal^

Stop loss*
(Rs)

Reco
price
(Rs)

Closing
price
(Rs)

Potential #
P/L (%)

Tgt.1
(Rs)

Tgt.2
(Rs)

Risk/
Rwd.
ratio (%)

Trail stop
out @216.5
Stopped out
@251.55
-

208.00

228.00

216.50

-5.04%

305.00

305.00

1/4

252.00

277.25

251.55

-9.27%

312.00

339.00

2/5

-1.05% 2,500.00 2,590.00

10.79%
250.00
500.00

1/2
1/8

Tgt. = Target

2,330.00 2,419.85 2,394.45

169.00
195.00
216.05

Rwd. = Reward

Eagle Eye

July 14, 2014

Home

Short specific
Term Trend
Stock
ideas

16900
16800
16700
16600
16500
16400
16300
16200
16100
16000
15900
15800
15700
15600
15500
15400
15300
15200
15100
15000
14900
14800
14700
14600
14500
14400
14300
14200
14100
14000
13900
13800
13700
13600
13500
13400
13300
13200

- CNX BANK INDEX - 1 MONTH (14,840.00, 14,994.00, 14,460.10, 14,505.10, -367.250)

Bank Nifty
Support: 14350/14150
Resistance: 14650/14850

13100
13000
12900
KST (-2.68196)

18

24

31
April

15

21

28

5
May

12

19

26

For Private Circulation only

12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
2
June

16

23

30
July

14

21

Eagle Eye

July 14, 2014

Home

Day Traders Hit List

For July 14, 2014
Scrip Name
NIFTY Futures

Support Levels
S2
S1
7380.0

7460.0

Close
(Rs)

Resistance Levels
R1
R2

Action

7484.0

7555.0

Go Short Below s1

7579.0

......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

Bank Nifty Futures 14290.0

14460.0

14504.0

14650.0

14750.0

Go Short Below s1

......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

Axis Bank

1798.0

1825.0

1816.7

1842.0

1863.0

Go Short Below s1

......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

BHEL

211.0

221.7

223.3

229.0

232.0

Go Short Below s1

......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

DLF

199.0

205.5

209.4

213.0

216.0

Go Short Below s1

......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

Hindalco

162.0

165.0

166.8

169.0

172.0

Go Short Below s1

......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

ICICI Bank

1320.0

1351.0

1356.6

1372.0

1388.0

Go Short Below s1

......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

Jai Prakash

58.0

60.8

61.8

63.2

65.0

Go Short Below s1

......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

LNT

1470.0

1550.0

1574.4

1603.0

1645.0

Go Short Below s1

......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

Reliance Industries

924.0

960.0

966.5

978.0

992.0

Go Short Below s1

......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

SBI

2300.0

2412.0

2425.3

2445.0

2483.0

Go Short Below s1

......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

Tata Motors

419.0

442.0

446.0

452.0

455.0

Go Short Below s1

......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

Tata Power

95.0

99.0

102.0

104.4

107.0

Go Short Below s1

......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

TISCO

462.0

499.0

501.9

509.0

516.0

Go Short Below s1

......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

TCS

2335.0

2370.0

2394.5

2410.0

2444.0

Go Long AboveR1 / Go Short Below s1

......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

*Note: Closing price of Nifty futures is last traded price of Nifty futures on NSE
SL=Stoploss

For Private Circulation only

Eagle Eye

July 14, 2014

Home

Smart Charts
IOCSell

405
400
395
390
385
380

CMP: Rs337.15

375
370
365
360

The stock has formed a triangular pattern and is expected

to break on the lower side. The triangle seems to have
formed in the wave X as the previous three-wave fall was
wave W and now wave Y down is expected which has an
equality target of Rs294. The stop loss is pegged at Rs356.50.

355
350
345
340
335
330
325
320
315
310
305
300
295
290
285
280
KST (-0.58506)
20
15
10
5
0
-5
7

15

21

28

5
May

pril

12

19

26

2
June

16

23

30
July

14

21

28

Ambuja CementSell

7
6
5
4
3
2
1

CMP: Rs212.1

0
-1
-2
248
247
246
245
244
243
242
241
240
239
238
237
236
235
234
233
232
231
230
229
228
227
226
225
224
223
222
221
220
219
218
217
216
215
214
213
212
211
210
209
208
207
206
205
204
203
202
201
200
199
198
197
196
195
194
193
192
191
190
189
188
187
186
185

v
100.0%

iii

II

iv
38.2%

0.0%
I

ii

19

26

2
June

16

23

30

14

21

28

4
August

July

Sell Ambuja Cement at the current market price of Rs212.1

with the stoploss of Rs222 for the targets of Rs200 and Rs183.
The stock has formed a leading diagonal in wave I. Thereafter
it retraced 38.2% in wave II. In todays trading session it has
broken the swing low of wave I which indicates wave III on
the downside has started. It is currently trading below the
20 and 40 daily moving averages which shall act as crucial
resistances. Daily momentum indicator has a negative
crossover.

11

15
10

Shriram Transport FinanceSell

5
0
-5
-10

ii

100.0%

61.8%

1070
1060
1050
1040
1030
1020
1010
1000
990
980
970
960
950
940

i
iv

930
920
910
900

iii

890
880
870
860
850

0.0%

840
830

820
810
800
790
780
770
760
750

CMP: Rs886.25
Sell Shriram Transport Finance at the current market price of
Rs886.25 with the stoploss of Rs916 for the targets of Rs800
and Rs694. The stock has a five wave decline. It has retraced
61.8% of the fall. From that crucial resistance it has again
faced selling pressure. It is currently trading below the 20and
40 daily moving averages. Daily momentum indicator has given
a negative crossover from the equilibrium line.

740
730
720
710
700
690
680
670
660
650
640
630
12

19

26

2
June

16

23

30

For Private Circulation only

7
July

14

21

28

4
August

11

Eagle Eye

July 14, 2014

Home

Smart Charts
20

15

Tata SteelSell

10

610
605
600
595
590
585
100.0%

580
575
ii

570
565
560
555
550

50.0%

iv

545

540
535
530
525
520
515

0.0%

510

iii

505
500
495
490
485
480
475

CMP: Rs491
Sell Tata Steel at the current market price of Rs491 with the
stoploss of Rs525 for the targets of Rs476 and Rs462. The
stock has a five wave decline. It has retraced 50% of the fall
and has faced selling pressure from that crucial resistance.
It has closed below the 20 and 40 daily moving averages.
Daily momentum indicator has a negative crossover. Our
sense is that it has started the next wave on the downside.

470
465
460
455
450
445
440
435
430
425
420
415
12

19

26

2
June

16

23

30

7
July

14

21

28

4
August

11

18

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For Private Circulation only

Eagle Eye

July 14, 2014

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