(a) (12) Three professional golfers all have the same average driving distance of 280 yards.

P C W h~ ;t h ~ ;r n ~ b i ~ : t ;;he~ h a ~ ; ;;T o f l c ;c ;~ ? o ) f 5
/7 5 J .9-0. 7 3 9 . L f (J .0 )t- 0.001 Jo3(Y?o / = - 7o, Ir 3 c l
P ( > ; < 7 o ) = f( i< ? o -:.a~~na. j = O ,J3/'6 [ ,--A -l / -' 5 U J _ e _ 1 _ : -0-,()-/ J _ ' i _ j _ _ ,
(b) (12) W hat score, y0, is such that only 5 % of pro golfers with drives averaging 27 0 yards
have average scores more than Yo c l
/ 1 J e o1 1 z: /e J . 9 -o. 73 9~ (j . 7o) f - 0,001Jo3 G7 o) =- 7o, 9GO 7
P (Y> yo ) .o c
P ('! >y. ) = < > >J o ~:; :G a7 ~
1
where E is normally distributed with mean 0 and standard deviation 0. 25 . Assume that the
average scores of different golfers are independent of each other.
1. (24 points) A sports reporter has studied data on professional golfers and determined
that the following model reasonably approximates the relationship between average driving
distance ( x, in yards) and average eighteen hole score ( Y):
Y = 182. 9 - 0. 7 394x +0. 001203x2 +E,
Make sure your exam has 3 different pages.
You have one hour to complete the exam.
You may use one formula sheet, a calculator and the statistical tables I posted at the
website. (I f a required degrees of freedom is not in the table, use the next smaller
degrees of freedom that is in the table. )
To get full credit show as much of your work as possible.
Good Luck!
Instruc tions:
Exam I
Name STAT 212-5 02
March 8, 2010
2
35, / % o f / ~ e _
1 1 '/e .rco ry C o /J hAf),
//')
/ J 7o~ / O ccoul ' }fs, fo 1 1
f c :J (a VU'.
. Give an interpretation of this (c) (10) I n the full model, the value of R2 is 0. j 5/
number.
fo ~ ~ }/ f~ ~), G I
(b) (10) An estimate of the error variance for the full model (i. e. , the one with all four
independent variables) is 3, 0 d - 3 .
Vo/ ' / c~ l ts
I ~ 1 1 l ' e l e i ' //-
(a) (14) Does it appear that any of the four independent variables is useful in explaining
variability in the logarithm of average mercury content? Answer using the appropriate
test with n = 0. 05 . F : : : - (: ; L ; " -i L (- < ? ' ((/; IA j} =. O, iC( JQ 3
t ( /,_ /''Y', _cf / . 1 <L liyl'o fAe srS !)<if o o ne o f lhfl
1; vse _fr.J . S o , rs al /e o :sf ~/J '- o f J -fe
Val /ab~s 1 ~ use ful,
The four independent variables were measurements taken from the water of a given lake.
Use the accompanying JMP output to answer questions (a)-(f).
x1 =log( alkalinity)
x2=log(pH)
x3=log( calcium)
x4=log( chlorophyll)
y=log(average mercury content in a sample of fish)
2. (7 6 points) A study of 5 3 Florida lakes was conducted to determine factors that affect
the amount of mercury in largemouth bass. The following variables were considered:
or
7 C i 7 ). i: //, 7 c3Lf
)
3
7 , ro 9 J . i: J , o I /3 ~ , o J 3 f- ( < } . J4"f) J. .
( - /f. O L / . J / f Ef .l(, )
(f) (14) A researcher wants to predict ~for Lake Toxicium, which has x1 = 4, x2 = 2,
X3 = 3 and X 4 = 2. 25 . The standard error of So+4S1 +2. & 2 +3S3 +2. 25 S4 is 0. 244.
Predict r: Lake Toxicium using an interval in which you have 95 % confidence.
j = 'i/J!f9 nlf'- . o 7 g3a? ( 'f )- r. O.J f9'in(J .) T
I 0 3~(; 4'~ I (3) - ' e ){, #''ff !( J .d . 5" )
7, ( 0 9 J
(d) (14) Does the model containing x1, x2, x3, and x4 improve significantly upon one con-
taining only x1 and x4? (Use a= 0. 05 . )
II,, : (_A " /35 =o ,'rt kl! m (J cl~I)
F ~ {17 55. 66< ; J -1 633, 09-fo )/~ ~I. ?o/
39'. OJ : 3
F
5
, L / ~ 3. d 3 :s/~ce _ ; ; ? 01 < 3, d 3 u.1 e _ clo /J o f-
. o > O l)To )
/'e. ;ecf /fo . lJ e .. fo # /1 fo o le ../ t lo e -s /J o i l~/'OVe . '5 j//J: _
ca /J f /y o 1 1 o " e co n f9 r'rl !1 1 c, ~ 11 /v X {( //(I K ., , _ ,
(e) (l~ Choose a model that you think is b~ among afl models containing a subset of the
four independent variables. Justify your choice.
/!LC 1 is /IJ 1 /i1 't 1 J /xe c/ fo r !'he m o r/e l C o /llo /~; y
Xll X5 O /Jc / Xf . 45e _co n/ c-fo 1 i:.e t 1A !)( J/< /
6 L a 1 1 7 0 r / t I Co nla , , -'n; ri,y o /J r( X1 c //cl X '7' ,