Credibility of Government in Afghanistan

President Hamid Karzai of Afghanistan can not celebrate his victory in elections that
were not. Withdrawal of Dr. Abdullah from presidential run off left Karzai as the winner
by default. An accepted election fraud puts Karzai at permanent disadvantage in terms of
credibility. Abdullah has denied Karzai the credibility that he needs to govern the
troubled nation. Karzai is seen as a puppet of US government.

What Afghanistan needs is a sense of being politically stronger after first term of Karzai.
If the sense is of a failed state or failed democracy, US & NATO forces can not win any
war. But if US & Allies decide to negotiate with say “Good Taliban”, they have to be
seen to be emerging stronger & stable to be in better negotiating position..

Establish Credibility

Post 2002 war, the people of Afghanistan had convened Loya Jirga, the convention of
local tribal chiefs, to decide on the future of governance in the country. The election
fraud of Karzai reduced his legitimacy and has once again thrown up an option of
collective decision making through Loya Jirga process.

Other option to grant legitimacy & stability to government is to bring about a

rapprochement between Abdullah & Karzai with power sharing arrangement to form a
national government. A possible solution, experimented successfully in Indian state of
Jammu & Kashmir, is sharing of power by splitting term of governance to 2-1/2 years
each keeping overall frame work & broad policies unchanged.

Strategic faux pas

US & Western Allies have not yet finalized their strategy post-election-Afghanistan. US
administration has been waiting to push 40,000 more troops to combat Taliban. But US
Ambassador in Kabul has advised against it. Worst is that this split opinion within US top
brass has given clear indication to Taliban of their virtual victory. So the big question
mark in front Obama & his allies is next what?

Exit Strategy

In my earlier blog “ Nuclear Apartheid..” dated June 19, 2009, I had suggested that US &
NATO forces should honorably withdraw from Afghanistan. It is encouraging to read
Mikhail Gorbachev’s suggestion this week to US to withdraw from Afghanistan.
Pushing Taliban out of Afghanistan to “nowhere territory” is not a practical solution. We
have seen all those Al Qaeda militants pushed out of Afghanistan have found safe haven
in Waziristan & other pockets in Pakistan & elsewhere. So even if pushed out of
Afghanistan, the Taliban or Al Qaeda or other brands of militants will have enough
sympathizers (enemies of US) to provide shelters and permanent hideouts. And the story
would continue in different forms with more determination.
If 20-year old turmoil has to end then it is essential to take lessons from ten years of
Soviet and ten years of US experiences. The fact is that militancy has survived for so
long financed and armed by friends & foes of US & Russia together. Most of Taliban
fighters have shelter or covert support from countries which were part of erstwhile Soviet
Union. Militancy can survive another twenty years and will only become stronger as they
consolidate their gains.

Post Exit Power Vacuum

Iran & India both have been strong neighbors with strategic interests in Afghanistan.
Both these countries have long term & permanent interests in peaceful solution to
stability in Afghanistan. Iran can contribute in finding a solution to Afghan problem and
therefore involvement of Russia is absolutely essential. This would entail adjustment of
US policy toward Iran, which in any case is under scanner with help from Russia.

Russia can influence, as much as US, shaping up of change in “Vision Afghanistan”. Can
Russia & USA work together to bring about a lasting solution to the troubled region
which is legacy of both of them? Both the poles of erstwhile bipolar world have failed
in Afghanistan. United Nations has not been effective in solving any problem
anywhere in the world. How does one handle the power vacuum created by exit of
US & NATO? Can Afghans be left to themselves to rule their nation with security
guarantees from Russia & US jointly?

Address Ideological Needs of Afghanistan

Another crucial factor about the ideological difference arises from Taliban’s insistence on
Islamic rule based on Shariat. This can be addressed best by Islamic countries like Saudi
Arabia, Egypt and Iran who are at forefront of religious and financial leadership of
Islamic world by & large. They can help to bring about some solutions through track II
diplomacy if not one track I. They can influence the shape of things to come post US
withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Enlarge the Circle of Influence

The way forward therefore is to enlarge the circle of negotiating peace process to include
US, NATO, Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt & India and create reasons for Taliban to
enter into negotiations. If a limited war to create strategic advantage to bring them to the
table is necessary so be it. And what could not be won by world’s most powerful &
modern military forces in two decades has to be won by diplomacy and reason on
either side of table. That is the only alternative.

USA is boxed in Afghanistan and needs an out of box solution.

Vijay M. Deshpande
Corporate Advisor,
Strategic Management Initiative,
Pune

November 13, 2009

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