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Frontpage


The Sun Rises on the
Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

An analysis on how to fulfill Saudi Arabias Solar Energy Potential






M.Sc.Cand.Merc. Management of Innovation and Business Development

Dennis Kim Sarup
Signature__________________Date_________.
CPR nr. 300984-2445

Tabs: 181.879

4
th
of April 2014 Master Thesis
Supervisor: Sigvald Harryson Copenhagen Business School 2014





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Abstract
Everything becomes a little different as soon as it is spoken out loud.
- Hermann Hesse
1

The theses search of investigation is to illuminate how the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia may utilize their solar
energy investment of USD 109 billion in PV knowledge and technology to develop a sustainable PV industry.
To elaborate on this interesting matter, a qualitative framework is used to perspective the phenomena within
the four top PV nations; USA, Japan, Germany and China. Moreover, an extensive work of state-of-art,
standard and novel PV technologies is presented to illuminate, which technologies may be most preferable
for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to invest in. The field of research relays on Grounded Theory, aiming to
provide with a new theoretical approach of how to visualize the hermeneutical maturing process of the PV
technology, PV industry and PV adoption segment, through the implementation of policy incentives. This may
hence be used as a theoretically framework that evaluates the effects of policy incentive and how to kick-
start any random nation PV implementation and development. The steps taking will hence provide with an
answer on how the Saudi PV deployment and development policy should be, by zooming-in on the PV
technology, industry and adoption-segment barriers. The thesis final chapter will provide with 8 proposals
and recommendations, serving as a contribution to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia future PV solar adventure.



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Table of Content
Abstract ............................................................................................................................................................. 2
Abbreviation ..................................................................................................................................................... 5
List of figures ...................................................................................................................................................... 6
List of tables ........................................................................................................................................................ 7
1. Introduction - The sustainable PV solar energy solution ............................................................................... 8
1.1 Solar energy in Middle Eastern market .................................................................................................. 8
1.2 The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia potential PV solar market ........................................................................ 9
1.3 Readers guide ....................................................................................................................................... 12
2. Methodology ................................................................................................................................................ 13
2.1 Qualitative framework ........................................................................................................................... 13
2.2 The theoretical lens ............................................................................................................................... 14
2.3 A deductive and inductive approach ..................................................................................................... 15
2.4 Data Collection ...................................................................................................................................... 16
2.5 Credibility of empirical findings ............................................................................................................ 18
3. Theoretical framework ................................................................................................................................. 20
3.1 The Economics of Industrial Innovation ................................................................................................ 20
3.2 General Purpose Technology ................................................................................................................. 21
3.3 Standardization in technology-based markets ...................................................................................... 21
3.4 Crossing the chasm to the critical citizens.............................................................................................. 22
3.1.1 The Technology Adoption Life Cycle adopter segments ................................................................. 23
3.1.2 Partnership and tactical alliances ................................................................................................... 23
3.1.3 Competition in the market .............................................................................................................. 24
3.5 Chain-Link model .................................................................................................................................... 24
3.6 The Tangible Technology Triangulation model ...................................................................................... 24
4. The PV review ............................................................................................................................................... 27
4.1 State-of-art, standard and novel PV technologies (Summery) .............................................................. 27
5. The beginning of a new self-sufficient energy era ...................................................................................... 31
5.1 Present PV solar installation ................................................................................................................. 31
5.2 PV projections ......................................................................................................................................... 32
5.3 PV grid-parity .......................................................................................................................................... 33
6. The PV industry path to prosperity ............................................................................................................. 35
6.1 The United States of America PV ............................................................................................................ 36
6.1.1 The US PV market structure ........................................................................................................... 37
6.2 The Japanese PV ..................................................................................................................................... 37
6.2.1 The Japanese PV market structure ................................................................................................. 39
6.3. The German PV ...................................................................................................................................... 40
6.3.1 The German PV market structure ................................................................................................... 42
6.4 The Chinese PV ....................................................................................................................................... 43
6.4.1 The Chinese PV market structure ................................................................................................... 44
6.5. Patents in USA, Japan, Germany and China ......................................................................................... 45
6.6 The World dominating PV companies ................................................................................................... 45
7. PV steps of tomorrow .................................................................................................................................. 48
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7.1 Build Integrating PV .............................................................................................................................. 48
7.2 PV environmental hazard ...................................................................................................................... 48
7.3 PV recycling ............................................................................................................................................. 49
8. Analyzing the PV past, present and prediction ........................................................................................... 51
8.1 The PV tehcnology potential future ....................................................................................................... 51
8.1.1 PV time of innovation impact ......................................................................................................... 51
8.1.2 The commercial PV technology ..................................................................................................... 52
8.1.3 PV price relation ............................................................................................................................ 53
8.1.4.PV technology performance ........................................................................................................... 53
8.1.5 The PV price and dust problem ...................................................................................................... 54
8.1.6 PV speed of production ................................................................................................................. 55
8.1.7 PV temperature performance influence ........................................................................................ 56
8.1.8 PV practical ability ........................................................................................................................... 56
8.1.9 Build Integrated PV compelling reason .......................................................................................... 57
8.2 The United States of America PV industry insights .............................................................................. 58
8.3 The Japanese PV industry insights ........................................................................................................ 59
8.4 The German and Chinese PV industry insight ....................................................................................... 60
8.5 Evaluation of the PV Industry achievements ........................................................................................ 61
8.5.1 The consequence of the overcrowded market .............................................................................. 63
8.5.2 The PV paradox .............................................................................................................................. 63
8.6 Alternative and new supplementing adoption approaches ................................................................... 64
8.6.1 SolarCity approach ......................................................................................................................... 64
8.6.2 The Purchasing Power Agreement ................................................................................................. 65
8.7 The PV companies of the next era ......................................................................................................... 65
8.8 Expanding the PV value chain with PV recycling .................................................................................. 66
8.9 National leaps for PV technology and knowledge implementation ...................................................... 66
9.0 An adopter focused solution .................................................................................................................. 69
9.0.1 Price-reduction influence ................................................................................................................ 69
9.0.2 PV system awareness and knowledge diffusion ............................................................................. 70
9.0.3 National visual branding .................................................................................................................. 70
9.1 Forecast scenario ................................................................................................................................... 70
10. Conclusion The 8 proposals and recommendations ......................................................................... 74
10.1 Choosing the right PV technology ....................................................................................................... 74
10.2 Attaining technology leadership through R&D .................................................................................... 76
10.3 Getting the policy incentives right ....................................................................................................... 76
10.4 Using PV industry insights .................................................................................................................... 77
10.5 PV price per watt and industry capacity ............................................................................................. 78
10.6 PV companies of the future .................................................................................................................. 79
10.7 Domestic adopter demands ................................................................................................................ 79
10.8 Promoting PV business development .................................................................................................. 79
11. A perspective on the future ....................................................................................................................... 81
12. Biography .................................................................................................................................................... 82
13 Appendices .................................................................................................................................................. 92
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Abbreviation
Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler Albert Einstein
2


4T-model: The Tangible Technology Triangulation model
AC: Alternating Current
Approx.: Approximately
A-Si: Amorphous silicon
A-Si/c-Si: Micromorph silicon
BIPV: Building-Integrated Systems
CdTe: Cadmium Telluride
CIGS: Copper-Indium-Gallium-Diselenide
CIS: Copper-Indium-Diselenide
C-Si: Crystalline silicon
CSP: Concentrating solar power
DC: Direct Current
DOE: Department of Energy
DTU: Danish Technical University
FDI: Foreign Direct investment
EIA: US Government Energy Information Administration
EPIA: European PV Industry Association
FDI: Foreign Direct Investment
FIT: Feed-in tariffs
IEA: International Energy Agency
GW: Gigawatt
KACARE: King Abdullah City for Atomic and Renewable Energy
KSA: Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
kWh: Kilowatt-hour
kW: Kilowatt
MW: Megawatt
NEM: Net Metering
PV: Photovoltaic
R&D: Research and Development
RPS: Renewable Portfolio Standards
STC: Standard Test Condition
TALC: Technology Adoption Life Cycle
US: United States of America
USD: United States dollar


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List of Figures
Figure 1 - Potential terawatt hours (Statista 2012) ........................................................................................... 9
Figure 2 - Burning natural gas to produce electricity costs more than electricity (Kearney, 2008) ................ 10
Figure 3 - Readers guide step-by-step ............................................................................................................. 12
Figure 4 - Deductive and Inductive approach (Blumberg et. Al., 2003) .......................................................... 15
Figure 5 - Triangulation model (Saunders, et al., 2012) .................................................................................. 16
Figure 6 - Waves of Innovation (Hargroves et al. 2005) .................................................................................. 20
Figure 7 - Technology Adoption Life Cycle (More, 1991) ................................................................................ 22
Figure 8 - Competitive-Positioning Compass (More, 1991) ............................................................................ 24
Figure 9 Chain-Link Model (Kline, et al., 1986) ............................................................................................. 24
Figure 10 - The Tangible Technology Triangulation model ............................................................................. 25
Figure 11 - Illustration of PV system energy generation ................................................................................. 27
Figure 12 - PV technology efficiency records (NREL Efficiency, homepage) ................................................... 30
Figure 13 PV value chain (Deloitte, homepage) ........................................................................................... 31
Figure 14 Accumulated and annual global PV installation; 2004 2014 (appendix 7, 4) ............................ 32
Figure 15 - PV c-Si price curve; 1980 2014 (Appendix 7, table 2) ................................................................ 33
Figure 16 - National PV price grid-parity (Bloomberg Energy Finance) ........................................................... 34
Figure 17 - PV domestic market in Japan, 19902013 (Appendix 7, 8.1) ........................................................ 38
Figure 18 - PV domestic market in Germany, 19902013 (appendix 7, 8.2)................................................... 40
Figure 19 - German PV module price decline, 2009 2014 (Appendix 7, 1) ................................................... 41
Figure 20 - German upstream PV value chain (Grau, et al., 2011) .................................................................. 42
Figure 21 German PV cluster (Industry overview; The PV Market in Germany 2013/2014, report) ........... 42
Figure 22 China PV upstream PV value chain (Grau, et al., 2011) ................................................................ 44
Figure 23 PV ustream patent 20062007 (Glachant, et al., 2010) ............................................................... 45
Figure 24 - Annual patent application for PV (Glachant, et al., 2010)............................................................. 45
Figure 25 - Top 10 PV company in 1988 (Jones, et al., 2012) .......................................................................... 46
Figure 26 - Illustration of the PV Recycling Cycle ............................................................................................ 49
Figure 27 Global Adoption and price-reduction curve (Appendix 7, 6.1 ) .................................................... 52
Figure 28 Illustration of PV module value .................................................................................................... 54
Figure 29 - Average price of PV c-Si and thin-film (Appendix 7, 3).................................................................. 55
Figure 30 - Crystalline PV module price in Japan, Germany and China; 2009 - 2014 (appendix 7.1) ............. 62
Figure 31 - PV market future forecast momentum ......................................................................................... 65
Figure 32 - The PV value chain extra link of PV Recycling ............................................................................ 66
Figure 33 - National PV leaps ........................................................................................................................... 66
Figure 34 - Illustration the potential global installation; 2003 2050 (Appendix 7, 4)................................... 71
Figure 35 - Three possible PV forecast scenarios; 2014 - 2020 ....................................................................... 72
Figure 36 - Illustrating irradiation absorption of the band-gabs (Clean Technica, homepage) ...................... 93
Figure 37 - Installed capacity and hypothetical values for the scenario (Leepa, et al., 2013). .................... 110


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List of Tables
Table 1 - Explorative interviews ...................................................................................................................... 16
Table 2 - Semi-structured interviews .............................................................................................................. 17
Table 3 - PV technology overview .................................................................................................................. 28
Table 4 - Incentive table ................................................................................................................................. 35
Tabel 5 - World ranking of PV companies from 2008 2013 ......................................................................... 47
Table 6 - PV technology kWh/m
2
output in KSA .............................................................................................. 75
Table 7 - Top 15 PV companies (Appendix 3.1) ............................................................................................. 104
Table 8 - Innovation companies or research center (NREL Efficiency, homepage) (appendix3.2) ............... 104
Table 9 - Comparison of different FIT regimes (Leepa, et al., 2013). ............................................................ 110


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1. Introduction - The sustainable PV solar energy solution
It is easier to resist the beginning than the end Leonardo da Vinci
3

The increasing global electricity energy consumption has the last decades created a pressing need to
accelerate the innovation development among the sustainable energy technologies. According to the US
Government Energy Information Administration (EIA), the world electricity consumption was approx. 17
trillion kWh in 2005. This is expected to rise to 24 trillion by 2015, and 33 trillion by 2030 (Solarfact,
homepage). This raises the issue of how to address the global challenges of energy security, climate change
and national energy independency (Sherwani, et al., 2009; Bahrami, 2012).

Solar energy has proved to be a
top renewable candidate to meet the earths future challenges, as the solar technology efficiency has
increased remarkably. Renewable energy resources have since the early 1960s been a philanthropic
environmental quest to reduce carbon dioxide globally. However, it is not until recently that a part of the
sustainable energy solution, including solar energy technology, has reached an economic motive among
many nations. While electricity-price on conventional production methods are staying stable or increasing,
the cost of a solar energy is declining. Solar energy has transitioned from being primarily driven by
environmental ideology, to actually being a cost effective solution (Singh, 2013; IEA-Technology, 2010;
Chowdhury, et al., 2014).
Conditions and circumstances may differ substantially from nation to nation, due to different energy policies
implementation, public support programs, national structural setup and the range of centralized utility
markets- Four particular nations where the solar energy is sparkling is USA, Japan, Germany and China (that
will be inspected in the thesis). These examples have a worldwide meaning, as they encourage many other
nations, governments and politician to follow the sustainable energy path. A particular region that is
sprouting and testing the PV technology by installing PV pilot projects is the Middle Eastern region.
1.1 Solar energy in Middle Eastern market
In the last five decades the Middle Eastern region been a one of the fastest growing emerging economies
worldwide with a growth-rate of approx. 4% in 2012 (IMF, article). The Middle East region will in the coming
decades, if widely held predictions turn out to be correct, not sustain sufficient energy to cover the rapidly
rising energy consumption that is occurring in line with the growing population and a demanding energy
industry (Griffiths, 2012). With the intention of developing the sufficient energy foundation towards the
future, proactive sustainable and renewable energy solutions are in the preliminary implementation stage in
many the Middle Eastern nations. In 2011, the whole Middle Eastern region installed PV solar energy of 0.131

3
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gigawatt (GW), which compared to Europes 21.939GW, Chinas 2.2GW, USA 2.2GW must be considered to
be relatively low, indicating that the Middle East is developing solar pilot project (EPIA, homepage).
1.2 The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia potential PV solar market
The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) will in the coming decades face the challenge of electricity scarcity, due
to an accelerating level of electricity consumption and a growing population, expected to grow from 27.2
million (2010) to 43.5 million by 2040 (Population Review, homepage). To address
this issue, the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Abdullah have recently
declared a new plan of energy diversify from oil to solar energy and other
renewable energy resources - and founded in April 2010, King Abdullah City for
Atomic and Renewable Energy (KACARE) (KACARE, homepage). The Deputy
President of KACARE, Walid Abu Al-Faraj, states that this will lead to an energy
production shift in the Kingdom, by converting the country into a sustainable
energy nation (ArabNews, article). KACARE have announced that the KSA will
invest USD 109 billion in solar energy to produce 41GW by 2032 (SaudiGazetta,
article). This is an ambitious goal from where several domestic challenges,
implications and opportunities arise. KACARE states that PV solar are now playing
an increasingly important role and are an area where KACARE seeks to become
involved in both their development and manufacture alongside local and international stakeholders, whilst
also transferring technical capabilities and skills to Saudi citizens (KACARE , homepage). According to Maher
Al-Odan at KACARE, the plan involves developing 41GW of solar power within two decades, estimated to
cover a third of the energy consumption. The current plan is to install 25GW solar thermal plants and 16GW
PV (PV) panels. KSA plans to start its first tender targeting 2GW of solar energy in early 2013 and plan a
second tender in 2014 aiming for 2.5GW. The solar energy investment is anticipated to reduce the KSA
domestic oil consumption by as much as 523,000 barrels a day over the next 20 years, prolonging KSA global
oil advantage, and continue to generate a high revenue, when sold to foreign nations (Saudi-Gazette,
article).
4
KSA is blessed with plenty of sun hours and has a high quantity of irradiation. Compared to for e.g.
Germany and Denmark with an average annual irradiation sum between 900 1200 kWh/m
2
, KSA has an
average annual irradiation sum between 1800-2200 kWh/m
2
(Appendix 5, 1). This means that the harnessing
the sun energy theoretically could be twice as effective on the same PV module, thereby lowering the
payback time by half (ISE Fraunhofer 2012, report). KSAs high irradiation and untouched landmass of

4
The demand for oil is estimated to grow from 3.4 million barrels/day in 2010 to 8.3 million barrels/day of oil in 2028.
Figure 1 - Potential terawatt
hours (Statista 2012)
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1,149,927 million km
2
creates an energy potential of approx. 70,000,000GW per year (figure 1), which is
enough to cover half of the world energy consumption on approx. 150,000,000GW in 2013 (IEA, homepage).
5

KSAs domestic unsolved energy shortage lead by a growing population and a raising energy consumption in
combination with its high solar irradiation, many solar hours, large untouched areas and a the willingness to
invest a tremendously amount of capital in solar energy, makes KSA a particularly interesting nation under
the consideration PV diffusion and domestic adoption. However, KSAs extreme low convention electricity
prices at USD 0.03/kWh is one of many barriers KSA is facing for the adoption PV energy (Bloomberg New
Energy Finance).
6
Ironically, the conventional energy is subsidized by the KSA government, which mean that
the real price is approx. USD 0.15-0.20/kWh (figure 2). In 2013, KSA was among the 20 best countries of
doing business in the world (number 11 in 2012). (Royal Danish Embassy, Interview). However, interviewed
domestic and foreign PV companies along the PV value chain remain in a waiting and wondering position,
ready for the departure stage of the KSA solar adventure (figure 10)(Solaria Energia; Spire Solar;
SolarWorld; EnergyGlow, Interviews).
In my time in KSA (August 2012 February 2013) as a Commercial Trainee at the Royal Danish Embassy, I got
an impression that the Saudi citizens doubted that the solar plan would become a implemented reality, as
KSA did not sustain the necessary capabilities to develop the success criteria. This general lack of belief made
me wonder - where is KSA in the Technology Adoption Life Cycle (TALC) (figure 7)? What is actual demand
for PV energy? How could KSAs successfully PV model be realized, and which challenges and barriers have to
be identified and penetrated? The answers were few, and so I decided to begin my thesis journey to
investigate and illuminate the past, present and prospective PV challenges and opportunities.

5
510.551 quadrillion BTU = 149,627,728GW
6
Compared to Denmarks USD 0.38/kWh, Germanys USD 0.34/kWh, Japans USD 0.19/kWh.
Figure 2 - Burning natural gas to produce electricity costs more than electricity (Kearney, 2008)
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Based on the above wonderings and considerations, this thesis will pursue to answer the following the
Research Question (RQ):

How can the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia utilize the investment in PV knowledge and technology to
help build a sufficient sustainable energy development for the future needs - and thereby reach
the PV 2032 goal?

I find the RQ highly interesting, relevant and renewable from an MIB-students point of view, as concepts as
knowledge development and innovate technology diffusion are central dynamic objects in a phase of
processing a potential new energy era. The reason why the RQ uses the term help is to avoid implying that
PV knowledge and technological is the only solution for KSA to close the insufficient energy gap.
The below sub-questions is formulated to narrow a clear the direction of the main RQ:
Which state-of-art, standard and novel PV technologies does exist? What are their characteristics, qualities
and limitations? How does the PV technologies fit to particular markets? What are the main barriers for
the PV technology diffusion?
Moreover, what factors enabled some countries to reach a high level PV adoption, and how can KSA
learn from these enablers and barriers to reach the 2032 goal?
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1.3 Readers guide
The 1
st
step (chapter 1) will present the methodological approach of the theses, illuminating
the qualitative framework, the phenomenology approach and the field of research (Grounded
Theory). The chapter will hence connect the theoretical lens with empirical data and frame it
in an inductive and deductive hermeneutical knowledge process. The 2
nd
step (chapter 2)
intents is to set the theoretical frame, allowing the thesis to connect the evidence (induction)
to a guided determined voyager (deduction). The theoretical frame will hence finalizes with a
contribution the self-made The Tangible Technology Triangulation (4T-model) that will
provide with a clear direction and coherency of concepts, that will shape the analysis (chapter
(4). The 3
rd
step (chapter 3) is a divided block, consisting of chapter; 3.1, 3.2, 3.3, 3.4 presented
is following; Chapter 3.1 presents with a PV technology perspective, and provides with an
overview of the existing state-of-art, standard and novel PV technology. Chapter 3.2
provides a brief overview of adoption rate and PV price/watt, through a perspective of
the beginning, present and a forecast prediction.
The aim is to comprehend the link between adoption and PV price and to identify for pattern.
Chapter 3.3 will illustrate; USA, Japan, Germany and China from the chronological
perspective. The nations provides with valuable insights into best practices and pitfalls, which
may be applied to the KSA PV deployment and development policy. The respective nations
political effort is illustrated to capture the most essential elements for a high technology
innovation to progress, and to zoom in on the factors that made it possible to break-down of
technology and adoption barriers. The chapter 3.4 gathers three important aspects; Building-
integrated PV (BIPV), PV Environment consequence and the PV Recycling. The 4
th
step
(chapter 4) focus is to analyze the empirical insights and PV contribution (chapter 3) through
the theoretical framework (chapter 2) of 4T-model, through the circulation of three central
elements; PV technology, PV industry and adoption segments, including policy incentives. The
analytical chapter will hence attempt to answer how a nation may investment in PV technology
and knowledge that will hence prepare the thesis for the 5
th
step (chapter 5), which develops
a basis for valuable suggestions and recommendations in the concluding section, answering
the RQ. The conclusion will consist of 8 proposals and recommendations that will be outline
and serve a contribution to KSA development, which additionally may be used as a theoretically
framework that evaluates the effects of policy incentive implementation, kick starting any
nation technology innovation within the dynamic maturing circulation of 4T-model.
Figure 3 - Readers guide
step-by-step
Introduction
step 1
Methodology section
step 2
Theoretical
framework
step 3.1
The PV Review
step 3.2
The beginning of a new
self-sufficient energy era
step 3.3
The PV industry path to
prosperity
step 3.4
PV energy of tomorrow
step 4
Analysing the past,
present and prediction
step 5
Concluding the Saudi
Solar stept
Step 3
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2. Methodology
People think focus mean saying YES to the thing you got to focus on. But
that not what it means at all. It mean saying no to the hundred other good
ideas - Steve Jobs
7

This chapter (1) presents the methodological approach of the theses, by illuminating the qualitative
framework and describe the connection to the phenomenology approach. The chapter continue by explain
the purpose with the field of research and the connection to theoretical lens to set thesis motion in the
desired direction. The inductive and deductive and the data collection is framed to show the hermeneutical
knowledge process, within a critical view on the credibility of findings.
2.1 Qualitative framework
The research is based on qualitative methodology (in contrast to quantitative methodology), indicating the
curiosity to illustrate how something is done, understood, interpreted, perceived or developed (Brinkman,
et al., 2010). The qualitative research methodologies includes approaches such as fieldwork and interviews,
and uses the phenomenology approach as a tool to illuminate previous experience processes; including
interaction, learning and development of a an industry (Brinkman, et al., 2010; Fuglesang L., 2004). The thesis
moves within this qualitative analytical research frame with an aim to suggest or explain why or how
something is happening, e.g. underlying causes of industrial action. An important feature of this type of
research is in locating and identifying the different factors (or variables) involved. (Neville, 2007 s. 2).
To illuminate and understand the phenomena (approach) of the PV industry and technology early, the
achievements of USA, Japan, Germany and China will be presented to contribute with a unique PV experience
of how to engage the barriers at different technology maturity stages within the PV industry - all of which is
relevant to solving the RQ. The thesis moves in a dynamic hermeneutical zone of knowledge circulation
enhancement (interviews or second literature sources), evaluated and used for it purpose.
The red-thread of the thesis is the horizontal chronological time-line from where the past is perceived trough
a structural guidance of the forerunning PV nations experience in developing a successful PV infrastructure.
Learning from the past, looking to the future is the goal within the view of the four national PV development.
By exploring this time horizontal approach, I may spur, connect and elaborate evidence on the concept taken
into consideration. The national, industry and technology maturity may shares a common denominator for
success, which is aimed to be unfolded to illustrate how the PV industry knowledge and technology
improvement may flourish, and by then allowing the thesis to draw valid proposals and recommendations to
guide KSAs PV future direction.

7
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This thesis field of research relies on Grounded Theory, developing a general theory from the data collected
(Glaser, et al., 1967). The Grounded Theory research allows for the combination of inductive and deductive
approaches in theory building. The characteristic of Grounded Theory is that theory is developed from data
generated by a series of observations and phenomena taking place in the investigated field. These data lead
to the generation of predictions that are tested in further observations, which may confirm the predictions
(or proposals and recommendations) (Saunders, et al., 2012). The constant reference to data in testing and
building theory is what characterizes this approach. The purpose is to compare collected data with selected
concepts and categories in order to develop the theory (Saunders, et al., 2012). The thesis theory is
generated from observation made in the process and an aim to approach the research with no preconceived
ideas about what may be absorbed, discovered and learned (Neville, 2007).
The concepts of knowledge and technology development and transfer of PV adoption in certain nations
are especially situated in a cross-disciplinary field of Management of Innovation and Business Development,
offering a perspective to analyzes the development process from a wide range of incidents that have
occurred across a technology-, industry- and adoption segment level. All of which are conceptually
connected and can be used to explain the history of the PV maturity improvement. This triangulation
approach is funneling a macro scale industry actions to the micro adoption level through the innovation
technology, describing a correlation in a general (Grounded) theory. "In discovering theory, one generates
conceptual categories or their properties from evidence, then the evidence from which the category emerged
is used to illustrate the concept" (Glaser & Strauss, 1967, s. 23). The analytical frame (and hence concluding)
intention is to clarify the factors of a nations investment activity in terms of policy incentives, influencing
the innovation industry level. The correlation phenomena approach used will be outline through the founding
PV nations; USA, Japan, as well as todays leading PV production nations; Germany and China, to illustrate the
implications in a pursuit for sustainable and balanced PV solar Industry.
2.2 The theoretical lens
The theoretical approaches used consist of - Kondratieff and Innovation wave, General Purpose Technology,
Standardization of Technology, Diffusion of Innovation, Technology Adoption Life Cycle and the Chain-Link
Model. The theories is funneling a coherent explanation from a macro level to a micro level of the dynamic
technology maturity process. The Kondratieff and innovation wave view is used to determine what may
foster or hinder Innovation in a society, leading to the general purpose of the innovation. The GTP will
contribute with an understanding of what a technology innovation such as PV technology requires to be
determined as a GTP, through an adopter segment perspective of the TALC theory. This view are disclosing
how a technology may cross the chasm and move on from a small-market segment of exploration phase
lead by technology enthusiast and visionaries (early adopters), to a mass-market segment of acceleration
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phase lead by pragmatist and conservative (early and late majorities) (figure 7 and figure 10). Using the
foundation of TALC I may capture the essential elements to explain the technology transfer and focus on
national Diffusion of Innovation (Rogers, 2003).
2.3 A deductive and inductive approach
The research approach is characterized by being both inductive and deductive. The deductive approach can
be visualized as the initial research was collected and derived from a review of the theoretical literature.
Within this stage an overall direction of thesis is developed, which provides with the basis for the exploratory
interviews. An important element of the deductive approach is the requirement to operationalize the
concepts in order to ensure clarity of definition (Saunders, et al., 2012). The thesis has also taken advantage
of the inductive approach to make a general statement of theory from the empirical observations made.
Within the inductive approach the contextual theoretical relations is visualized trough a heuristic perspective,
which allows to explore and solve the RQ by evaluate the previous experiences (Fuglesang L., 2004). Though
many enlightening up-to-date PV research papers came in handy, a series of qualitative interviews was
gathered to collect a sufficient knowledge-bank that contributes with a unique perspective on the PV
countries, PV companies, PV developments and technology trends and status the KSA (exploration and
waiting position).
The thesis did not use the quantitative method, as frequency and statistical approach, as the phenomena
was not asses to give a satisfying and applicable results within the methodology and theoretical set-up.
Although it could have been interesting and valuable to make several quantitative interviews (and thereby a
statistical approach) with early adopters and early and late majorities in Japan, USA, Germany and China
to spot the particular value-proposition of these segments although the circumstances of adoption most
likely like be different between a e.g. German population and a KSA population. This is also a valuable point
to make, when using the qualitative approach in an analytical frame, as the resembling between two so
distinct cultures and national differences must be taken in consideration.
Figure 4 - Deductive and Inductive approach (Blumberg et. Al., 2003)
16 | P a g e

2.4 Data Collection
The thesis has through the process relied on triangulation
of concepts and information gathered, as the use of two
or more independent sources of data or data-collection
methods within one study in order to help ensure that the
data are telling you what you think they are telling you
(Saunders, et al., 2012 s. 683). The data collection went on
throughout the whole process and influenced the focus
and direction along the way. The thesis can be
characterized by a movement back and forth between
theory and data, which has also allowed for supplementary
data in term of interviews to be collected later in the process as new fields of inquiry surfaced. In order to
establish a general understanding of the PV industry and technology, secondary data as books, academic
papers and articles has been attained, with a critical sense to retrieve the most updated and qualified
research. Primary data was collected through a range of qualitative interviews with PV industry experts,
scientist and high-level officers, with many years of experience. Explorative as well as semi-structured
interviews were conducted, which has proven to be highly valuable for knowledge enhancement and allowed
the findings of the study to be confirmed from different data sources and ensured greater validity and
reliability. Furthermore, personally data, knowledge and experience was attained as (previously mention)
the stay in KSA. As the Commercial Trainee, I participated in Embassy meetings, environmental and
construction exhibitions and events, and relevant energy conferences, which offered a first-hand perspective
on the energy-issues related to the KSAs current energy diversification.
After the initial research data (which through a personal process became information and hence pure
knowledge) was gained from the literature, an exploratory approach to the company interviews was chosen
to improve the overall understanding of the identified subject matter. This exploratory approach was
performed to test the initial ideas of PV industry-development through the literature review and move closer
towards the final focus. The interview participants are listed in table 1 and table 2.
Table 1 - Explorative interviews
Name Position Company Nation Location Date
PhD.Karsten
Nielsen (KN)
Chief Executive
Officer
GreenGo Energy
(GGE)
Denmark
GreenGo Energy
Head Office
Friday, 18
th
of
October 2013
PhD. Martin
Aagesen (MA)
Chief Executive
Officer
Gasp Solar (GS) Denmark
Bio Center
Copenhagen
Thursday, 31th of
October 2013
Figure 5 - Triangulation model (Saunders, et al., 2012)
17 | P a g e

PhD. Frederik
Krebs (FK)
Head Professor
Dep. of Energy &
organic material
Denmark
Technical
University (DTU)
Denmark Skype
Monday, 9
th
of
December 2013
The interviews provided with a thorough perspective and an interesting discussion of the benefits and doubts
of the past, present and future PV technology. The triangulation approach was found valuable in the
resembling of the three interviews, which surprisingly enough varied a lot more than expected.
8
After an
assessment of the findings from the explorative interviews, a further consideration of the literature, and a
tightening of the research focus, a range of semi-structured interviews were conducted.
Table 2 - Semi-structured interviews
Name Position Company Nation Location Date
Ed Hurley Vice President Spire Solar USA Skype
21th November 2013 and
5
th
February 2014
Ali El-Hadidi
Head of the Commercial
Section
Danish
Embassy in
KSA
Saudi Arabia Skype 7
th
of January 2014
Eric Olson
Director of Business
Development
Sol Voltaic
AB
Sweden Skype 30
th
of January 2014
Juan F. Gil
Engineering and R&D
Department Manager
Solar Energia Spain Skype 7
th
of February 2014
Saleh Al-
Khozaim
Marketing Director Energy Glow Saudi Arabia Skype 10
th
of February 2014
Edwin Koot Chief Executive Officer SolarPlaza Deutch Skype 13
th
of December 2014
Ali Ghaouti
Business Development
Manager
SolarWorld Germany Skype 26
th
February 2014
These semi-structured interviews allowed for a more focused investigation of the RQ. The structure of the
interviews was flexible enough to accommodate an elaboration of any valuable input mentioned outside the
scope of the formal interview-matrix. The series of semi-structured-interviews were conducted with the
ambition to fill up the empty locker of international PV companies a global market functioning level. The
interviews contributed with perspectives from a triangulation-angle: Firstly, the PV companies where chosen
to elaborate on crucial history events within the PV industry and to identify the important issues for the
development high-tech company. Secondly, the solar Dutch energy-organization SolarPlaza CEO Edwin Koot,
was interviewed to illuminate a different perspective on the PV industry development, the encouragement
of solar energy promotion in various nations, as well as to lift the credibility of the analysis. Thirdly, the Head
of the Commercial Sector at the Danish Embassy, Ali El-Hadidi, was interview to perspective some of the
particularities in KSA industry, that may have influence on the technology solar transfer and knowledge in
KSA.

8
Different statements on the preferable PV technology in a hot climate
18 | P a g e

Each interview contributed with a unique view of the PV technology, as the interviewees had different
experience drawn from their respective national markets. For this reason, it was important to ask follow-up
questions, as the answer given might not be the one expected and would be more fruitful when following-
up to examine aspects the observer could not have foreseen. The selected interviewees are all positioned in
high-level posts in their respective companies and organizations, which enhances the interviewees reliability,
as they naturally poses a wide-industry knowledge and reflections upon more general considerations
connected to the past, present and future PV. Significant time and resources was devoted to get as many
qualified interviews as possible was made and approx. 70 qualified companies, organizations and scientists
was contacted, repeatedly emailed and called until the hand-in date was reached.
All interviews was recorded and transcribed in order to extract valuable information.
9

2.5 Credibility of empirical findings
The collection of qualitative data is an important consideration concerns the credibility of the research
findings in issuing key concerns of reliability, validity and generalizability, when doing a solid research design
(Saunders, et al., 2012).
Reliability of a study refers to the degree that the thesis would yield the same results in other occasions. It
furthermore address to what extent the same observations would be found by other researchers, as the main
challenge within qualitative research can be to freeze a certain social setting to make it accurately replicable
for other researchers (Bryman, 2004). A great concern or threat to the reliability may also originate from
either the participant (interviewee) or the observer. The main threat in relation to the participant is the
degree of bias in their statements, which might be reflect from their role in the organization or an underlying
agenda they are trying to push.
10
When guiding the direction of the interview as well as decoding the data,
the threat of bias inevitably introduces a concern in terms of how the answers and statements are
interpreted. As this threat is especially relevant for open-ended questions, which was the primary interview
approach, this naturally constitutes a concern. However, the information gathered through different
methods and a range of various sources, as well as the constant reference to theory, the triangulation as
describes above has sought to mitigate this concern.
Validity in general refers to an assessment of whether research is in fact investigating what it actually sets
out to study (Bryman, 2004). The main concern regards to the qualitative data collection is therefore if the
interviewee understands the questions fully - and responds with the acknowledgment to what the researcher

9
All the interviews fill too much to attached in the printed version of the thesis, and only one interview matrix is in the
appendix 8, as an illustration. However, to whom may be interested in the rest of the interviews, please email
dennis0sarup@gmail.com and I will gladly send them by email (green agenda: save-the-environment).
10
This risk was apparent in the first three qualitative interviewees, as each interviewee proclaimed somehow to
advocate the respective PV technology.
19 | P a g e

is asking. To ensure a high degree of validity the interview participants were well informed in advance of the
focus of both the overall study and the specific interview. The participants received a project outline
description of the thesis as well as a short explanation of idea with the specific interview to ensure the
interviewees recognition of a clear direction of the interview. A short introduction was given before each
interview with the aim of ensuring a correlation between the responses and the focus on the thesis.
Generalizability describes to what extent research is equally applicable to other research settings (Bryman,
2004). This thesis issue of generalizability is stronger than it would have been in a single-case study, due to
the number of nation perspective and the many interviews from various organizations and scientists - though
a larger number of interviews is always preferable to enhance the quality of a research project (Saunders, et
al., 2012). A concern related to the research was the fact that the concept explored in the organizations was
subject to a certain degree of confidentiality. In general, the interview participants were not shy to
communicate about PV market experience. However, the companies were reluctant to disclose any specifics
collaboration with the Saudi government or domestic KSA companies, due to confidentiality arrangement,
which had no immediately effect for the focus the thesis.
Summery remark
The methodology chapter (1) served with illuminating the steps and direction to be taken, including
framework, approaches and field of research, and moreover which data is collected and how they are used.
As a natural leap, the thesis is now ready perspective the next chapter (2) of the theoretical lens.

20 | P a g e

3. Theoretical framework
It is hard enough to remember my opinions, without also remembering
my reasons for them. Friedrich Nietzsche
11

The chapter (2) intent is to set the thesis stage with a theoretical frame, which will allow to connect the
evidence (induction) to a guided determined voyager (deduction). The ambition is to supply the thesis with
relevant theoretical perspectives that guide and illuminate the incidents and phenomena witness within in
the theories of Kondratieff and Innovation wave, General Purpose Technology, Standardization of
Technology, Diffusion of Innovation, Technology Adoption Life Cycle and the Chain Link Model. Hence, the
theoretical framework will be finalize with the contribution of 4T-model that will provide with a direction
and coherency of concepts that will shape the analysis (chapter 4).
3.1 The Economics of Industrial Innovation
Economics of Industrial Innovation are
shaped by an important incident in a
societal context. Technology cycles shaping
the future may also be titled as Kondratieff
Waves or Waves of Innovation
(Kondratieff, 1925; Hargroves, et al., 2005).
The impact of PV technology may at first not
show its true colors with massive economic
fluctuations, although the historic course of
events may or may not provide evidence for
PV technology to be linked to the growth cycle of
connecting new industries and technologies. In order for a Wave of Innovation to occur there needs to be a
significant array of relatively new and emerging technologies, and a recognized genuine customer demand
in the market, which may stay unidentified until the product is developed, lunched and produced (Hargroves,
et al., 2005). The demand includes efficient appliances and resource saving fittings that PV solar energy may
provide. The sixth Wave of Innovation is identified as the Wave of Need, as there is an urgent demand to
prevent further pollution, climate change, ecosystem decline and foremost energy shortage.
A nation may foster or hinder entrepreneurial ideas and innovational diffusion by accessing the necessary
venture capital or supplying with a proper education needed to develop, produce and sell innovations

11
Quote 3, homepage
Figure 6 - Waves of Innovation (Hargroves et al. 2005)
21 | P a g e

(Freeman, et al., 1997). Furthermore, there are a series of national institutional and regulatory barriers,
influencing business productivity, innovation development and innovation diffusion. Realizing this generates
a significant source of potential productivity for companies and societal growth (Hargroves, et al., 2005).
3.2 General Purpose Technology
GPT provides with an explanation of how to analyze the close link between economic growth and the
innovative application. A second purpose lies in the microeconomics of technical change and continuous
progress between different types of innovation. A third contribution is the macro and micro perspective in
order to comprehend an understanding of the linkages between the aggregate economic growth that PV
technology contributes in coherency relation with the policy incentives structured (Bresnahan, 2010). The
basic definition of a GPT is separate in three parts; 1) widely used; 2) capable of ongoing technical
improvement; and 3) enables innovation in application sectors (Helpman, et al., 1998). The combination of
assumptions (2) and (3) is called Innovational Complementarities (Bresnahan, 2010; Trajtenberg, et al.,
1995).
12
The complication arrives due to uncertainty and asymmetric information, which destabilizes the
current market and makes coordination difficult. In the time of impact the GTP generate uncertainty, making
it difficult to coordinate and provide adequate innovation incentives to the GPT and application sectors
(Trajtenberg, et al., 1995).
There exist a factor of innovation production timing in a society purpose context, which is influencing the
pace of innovation diffusion, usability and application opportunities for the innovation. PV as an innovation
is only commercially relevant when other application needs it purpose (on e.g. a satellite). The timing and
the correlation have important implications for the social return and for the future role of GPTs in long-term
swings in productivity growth (Bresnahan, 2010).
3.3 Standardization in technology-based markets
In contrary to disruptive innovations with unbalanced heterogeneity market, Tassey (2000) develops a
concept of standardization in technology-based market. This concept may assist by giving an explanation to
how and why standardization of innovations occurs and influence the adoption.
The concept of Standardization arrives from the complexity of modern technology and represents a
codification of innovational products. Moreover, standardization has a significant effect on innovation,
productivity, and the market structure (Tassey, 2000). The codified elements in an innovation has become
standardized commoditizes (for companies or adoptors), which raise the industry competition. The
standardized product then becomes increasingly based on price and service-related aspects (and not based
on niche-factor). This evolutionary pattern was noted by the Austrian economist Joseph Schumpeter, who
observed that the essential dynamics of capitalism is assuring that the silk stockings initially purchased

12
The PV technology contains all three criteria to be defined as a GPT.
22 | P a g e

only by the rich would eventually be items of mass consumption (Tassey, 2000 s. 592). The standardization
have important effects on the achievement of economic growth objectives, as it do lower the uncertainty
barrier. A strategy of selling codified elements or products to markets or nations is characterized by
proprietary turnkey systems, which requires a high degree of product segmentation.
Governmental policy innovation progress tools consists of R&D facilities, research projects and industry
development, leading to technology development and economic standardization techniques. Government
R&D can establish and demonstrate a backbone infrastructure, which promotes private-sector R&D
investment in standards to allow effective use of industry-infrastructure (Tassey, 2000). The standardization
effect a significant contribution for the barrier of adopter segment, which will be visualized in below.
3.4 Crossing the chasm to the critical citizens
A diffusion of Innovations centers not only on awareness-knowledge, but also on attitude change, decision-
making, and implementation and transition of product innovation, as the word-of-mouth diffusion may be
positive or negative information (Rogers, 2003). A main dependent variable is innovativeness, expressing a
degree to which some individuals are faster to adopt than others. Figure 7 illustrates distinct adopters of
markets, which each represent a unique psychographic profile. Understanding each profile and its
relationship to its neighbors is a critical component of high-tech marketing wisdom (More, 1991).
The way a company may move to one market to another is by breaking the TALC model up in market
segments. In this effort, companies must use segment as a reference-base to capturing the next following
segment, representing a new market challenge of penetration. Between the two segments, visionaries (early
adopters) and pragmatist (early majority) has been introduced a gap, which symbolizes the separation two
group containing different acceptance on a new innovation.
Figure 7 - Technology Adoption Life Cycle (More, 1991)
23 | P a g e

3.1.1 The Technology Adoption Life Cycle adopter segments
The first market segment; technology enthusiast are providing with technical topics, and are the first to
appreciate the architecture of the high technology product. Second, is the visionaries, who are best known
for tolerant price-sensitivity and innovativeness, which is be connected to the high social status and general
openness to change, having a high impact on the overall diffusion process. The third and most relevant
segment is pragmatists (early majority), who have a tendency to focus on the standardization and is more
sensitive the innovation uncertainty, which may be limited by enhancing the information and knowledge
level. Thereby the innovation abstraction level is codify, simplifying the product (Seba, 2012; Rogers, 2003).
Pragmatists care about the company reputation, the quality of the product, the infrastructure of supporting
products and system interfaces, and the reliability of the service they are going to get (More, 1991 s. 32) and
are loyal with the anticipation to use this particular high technology product for a long time. For this reason,
the return for building relationships of trust are worth the effort, as they also encourage an innovation by
providing interconnectedness between individuals in the social system.
Once a product entered the mainstream market, it has a tendency to open horizontally and new market
development will support with complementary product and service (Seba, 2012). For this reason pragmatists
accepts only proven market product Innovation and company leaders, as they know that third parties will
design supporting products around a market-leading product. The fourth segment, conservatives (late
majority) are against discontinuous innovations, as they believe in tradition rather than progress, and is often
doubtful towards new ideas. Late majority have enormous value to high-tech industry as they extend the
market for high-tech components that are no longer state-of-art. The fifth segmentation, the skeptics, does
not participate in the high-tech marketplace, except to block purchases.
3.1.2 Partnership and tactical alliances
Partnerships are a connection of interrelated interests interoperating to create value, generating self-
reinforcing market. Tactical alliances have one and only one purpose: to accelerate the formation of whole
product infrastructure within a specific target market segment (More, 1991 s. 93). The commitment is to co-
develop a whole product and ensure adopter satisfaction, opening new sales opportunities. Tactical alliances
between different sectors may cross knowledge banks and speed-up the development progression of the
whole product infrastructure. This drives the customers compelling reason to buy and despite of the overall
high-risk nature of the transition chasm period, any company that executes a whole product strategy
competently has a high probability of mainstream market success (More, 1991 s. 96).
24 | P a g e

3.1.3 Competition in the market
Competition is central factor, as the pragmatists reflect, resemble
and compare products and companies in an arbitrary utility
function. Competition hereby becomes a fundamental condition
for the innovation adoption. The perceived market value chain
changes over time, representing a transition from product-
technology based values to market-companies based values. The
transition from product to market is signify that pragmatists are
more interested in the markets response to a product than in the
product itself (More, 1991).
3.5 Chain-Link model
An enhanced view of innovation path is assessable, when
comprehending that the linkage to innovation steps lies
along with development process. The model contains five
major path activities of innovation processes. The path back
and forth motion indicates that an innovation adoption is
not a linier curve, but will be meet by an order of adopter
resistance, as the innovational technology manifest a
disruptive and unbalance market situation (Kline, et al.,
1986). Policy incentives as R&D, manufacturing and deployment are defined as Market pull versus
technology push (R&D) are in this sense artificial, since each market need entering the innovation cycle leads
in time to a new design, and every successful new design, in time, leads to a new market condition (Kline, et
al., 1986 s. 290).
3.6 The Tangible Technology Triangulation model
From the above theory-outline, I have developed 4T-model, which contributes with the possibility to position
any random nation within the context of the innovation of diffusion line and analyze the particular nation
within the concepts of (PV) technology, (PV) industry and (PV) adoption, with the policy incentives in the
middle.
The dynamic technology innovational development and adoption of a technology can be visualized in the
experimentation, learning-by-doing and mass-production stages. The shift to a later innovation (as PV solar
energy) does require the process of time for the technology, industry and adoption circulation to develop
and mature. This dynamic progress is characterized within the 4T-model, below at figure 10.

Figure 8 - Competitive-Positioning Compass (More, 1991)
Figure 9 Chain-Link Model (Kline, et al., 1986)
25 | P a g e




Figure 10 - The Tangible Technology Triangulation model
26 | P a g e

The Exploration' phase is where the technology enthusiasts will buy an untested and expensive technology
(PV system, not even close to the grid-parity). Elaboration of improvement by continued R&D in the initial
stage is required to develop new technological variations and applications. The Departure phase is
dominated by the environmental visionary ideologist. The interrupting technology begins to influence the
(conventional system) existing market, and slowly transfer from a niche market to rooting in society with the
increasing intrinsic innovation market competition. The Acceleration phase is driven by the technology that
through the success in the two previous stages has obtained a momentum of standardization and maturity.
The market has crossed some essential barriers and now reached a wider audience of the early majority. In
the Stabilization stage, the technology has been totally accepted, as main dominating companies has
concurred and large-size the market, making the technology reliable as is has been tested and is public visible.
The system is replaced by a market balance and adopter trust
It is simplified model of the dynamic development process that an innovation is going through to reach
a market and technology maturity, and ultimately a mass-adoption. The purpose with an innovation is
to replace the existing market (or conquer the untouched market) by fulfilling the demand or desire of
the adopters segments; enthusiasts, visionaries, pragmatists, conservatives and laggards. To get the
market (and adoption) wheels spinning, a certain injection of governmental policy incentives may be
necessary to generate a dynamic growth of the interrelated concepts. The model -frame contributes the
analysis (chapter 4) within the triangulation of the concepts mentioned.
Summery remark
The chapter (2) provided with the theoretical lens, capturing and framing the empirical incidents and
phenomena within a macro and micro level. The final part of theoretical framework connects the dots
in the theories by culminating and contributing with a coherency of concepts in (own made) model.
This model shapes the overall direction of circulation between adoption, technology and industry that
will be used as three top elements in the analysis. The thesis is now prepared to perspective the next
step, consisting of existing PV technologies.

27 | P a g e

4. The PV review
If there is a dream solar technology it is probably PVs They have no
moving parts and are consequently quiet, extremely reliable, and easy to
operate. - Allan L. Hammond
13

This chapter (3.1) presents the basics of a how a PV system functions, and will hence provide with an overview
of the existing state-of-art, standard and novel PV
technologies PV technology with the aim of
analyzing the most preferable PV technology to KSA.
A PV technology table (3) is presenting a general PV
technology overview.

The basic principle behind the solar panel technology
is PV Effect (photo = light, voltaic = electricity), which is the conversion of sunlight radiation into electrical
energy. When photons of sunlight strike the cell, electrons are knocked free from the atoms on the used
material and are drawn off by a grid of metal semiconductors.
14
(Sherwani, et al., 2009). Figure 11 illustrates
the steps of how solar irradiation is transferred into usable electricity.
4.1 State-of-art, standard and novel PV technologies (Summery)
There are a numerous types of PV technology application, from low efficiency at low-cost rates, to high-
efficiency at higher cost rates. PV technology types differs in weight, flexibility, efficiency, life time (quality)
and price (IEA, 2010). Various types of PV technology have increased the last decade as the surging global
solar demand has been fueled by falling prices. Distinct PV stages of maturity has emerged through the
continued R&D and industrialization, leading to technologies as multi-junction, crystalline silicon (c-Si),
concentrating PV (CPV), organic solar and nanowire solar (IEA, 2010). Each PV technology have a specific
commercial market attached, due to the price and efficiency variation as well as physical adaptability.
Extreme temperature show to have a negative effect on 5 % on PV thin-film, and 8-9% PV c-Si (appendix 1.2)
For a more detail PV technology perspective and general information, please see appendix 1, however, a
summery and an evaluation of each PV in presented.



13
Quote 4, homepage
14
Semiconductors as gallium arsenide, Indium gallium phosphide, tellurium, silicon etc.
Figure 11 - Illustration of PV system energy generation
28 | P a g e

Table 3 - PV technology overview
The PV multi-junction technology produces the highest efficiency Standard Test Condition (STC) 44.4% and
is the most costly per watt. The commercial market is primary motivated by adopters that need a high
efficiency on a limited area, no matter the costs - as e.g. in military equipment or space-satellites (Brown, et
al., 2009). However, the multi-junction material is used in CPV technology. The CPV technology may have a
promising future, due to the high-efficiency output. However, the technology does not have a 30-year history
as PV c-Si, which create an uncertainty-risk for large solar-investors. The high efficient cell is exposed to the
concentrates of 100 to 300 times the suns radiation, due the mirrors. The main-disadvantage is it
sensitiveness to irradiation interruption due to the use of multi-junction technology (Gasp Solar, Interview).

15
Soitech, report
16
Soitech and Irena, report
PV
technology

Module
efficiency
in%
Module
efficiency
(STC) in%
USD /watt
USD/kW
h price
in KSA
15

Surface
area:
1kWp
Advantage Disadvantage
Triple Multi-
Junction
30% 44.4%
USD 150
250

-
4 m
2

- Best efficient on the
market.
- Highly robust
- state-of-art
technology
- Highly expensive.
- Bottleeffect

Concentrati
ng PV
16

20-25% - -
USD 0.22
(tracker)
-
- Less semiconduter
material
- High efficiecy
- No long tract
record
- Cloud and dust
sensitive
PV
Nanowire
30-35%
(expected)
13.3% USD 10-15 - 5 m
2

- High efficiency.
- Low use of semi-
conducter material
- High production
cost
- New and non-
market tested
Mono-
crystalline
Silicon
16 20% 25% USD 0.9
USD 0.26
(tracker)
7 9 m
2

- Bedst efficiency for
the basic consumer
- Easily availeble
- Highly Standidized
- Use more silicon
then poly silicon
- Less intolerent in
hot climate
Poly
Crystalline
Silicon
14 19% 20.4%
USD
0.9
USD 0.27 8 9 m
2

- Less silicon use,
time and energy for
production
- Highly Standidized
- marginal less
efficient then m-Si

Thin-film
CIS
7 12%

20.4%


-
USD 0.25
9 15
m
2

- marginal better
performance in hot
climate
- Less expensive
- Use more area
(1kWh) then c-Si
Thin-film
CdTe
8 12%
_

USD
0.74
-

10 11
m
2

- Less expensive
- Best thin-film cost-
cutting
- Use more area
(1kWh) then c-Si
Thin-film a-
Si
7 9%
_

USD
0.62
-
15 18
m
2

- Less expensive
- Less silicon use
- Use twice the
area (1kWh) then
c-Si
PV organic 2 4% 11.1 % -
USD
0.20-25
49 63
m
2

- Best price 1kWh
- Very fast production
- Easy to recycle
- Use 6-8 more area
pr. 1kWh then c-Si.
- Less life time
29 | P a g e

The PV crystalline-structure use silicon as a semiconductor material and is separated in two main-categories:
mono and poly-crystalline. The notable difference is that mono-crystalline is cut from a single crystal of
silicon, where poly-c-Si cells are cutting and sliced from a block of silicon, made into wafers (Chaar, et al.,
2011; IEA, 2012). C-Si PV is the oldest and the dominating PV technology, representing approx. 85% of the
commercial market (Irena 2013; IEA roadmap 2010, report). The Mono-crystalline modules have a higher
commercial efficiency of approx. 15-20% depending of the module and material (IEA, 2012). The maximum
efficiency of mono-c-Si solar cell has reached was 24.7% under STC (Chaar, et al., 2011). PV poly-crystalline
technology is commercially the best alternative when measuring in the parameters of price/efficiency. The
crystalline technology does fit the large commercial rooftop market, when looking at the factors: cost and
limited area (Gasp Solar, Interview).
The thin-film technology is characterized by the reduced cost of the active material, but with a markedly
lower efficiency. Thin-film reduces the quantity of material and manufacturing cost without jeopardizing the
cells lifetime. A great thin-film advantage is the flexibility of the PV modules, which has resulted in a non-
existing market in 2000 at 18-20% in 2012, reduced to 5-9% in 2013 (Chaar, et al., 2011; Cern, et al., 2013).
17

Thin-film is not recommended to put on the rooftop, as they do not deliver a satisfied energy production,
which also is a disadvantage in thin-film technology.
PV organic cells are a novel innovation of thin-films that consists of organic semiconductors such as polymers.
The highest efficiency achieved is approx. 12% (STC), but in real life the polymer cell have approx. 2-4%
efficiency (DTU, Interview). The organic PV technology is actually cheaper in price/efficiency (kilowatt)
compared to mono and poly-crystalline, but do requires 6-8 times more surface area. Due to the low-
efficiency and extensive surface requirements, the PV organic technology is not rooted in any commercial
market yet.
PV nanowire solar is a relatively new discovery in the PV technology. PV nanowire may utilize the irradiation
up to 15 times of the normal sun intensity, which is remarkable as it opens a potential for developing a new
type of high-efficient solar cell (Solardaily, article). With the reduced material prices and an estimated effect
on 30-35% (using Silicon as semiconductor), the PV nanowire prices is expected to be USD 10-15/watt.
However, PV nanotechnology is still far more expensive than PV c-Si at a price on USD 0.9 watt. The market
for the new improved PV nanowire would be in the category of high-efficiency small solar modules like mobile

17
With an expected market of USD 320 million, compared to approx. 1 billion investment in 2012
30 | P a g e

charger or for military use. Figure 12 illustrates the research-labs and innovating companies ongoing
development in improving the PV technology efficiency.

Summery remark
The chapter (3.1) enhances with a understanding of the pros and cons, performance, development and
provided with an general overview of the existing state-of-art, standard and novel PV technologies. The
thesis is hence to clear perspective the phenomena of PV past and present Global adoption.

Figure 12 - PV technology efficiency records (NREL Efficiency, homepage)
31 | P a g e

5. The beginning of a new self-sufficient energy era
Petroleum springs and coal mines are not inexhaustible but are rapidly
diminishing in many places. Will man, then, return to the power of water
and wind? Or will he emigrate where the most powerful source of heat sends
its rays to all? - Augustine Mouchot (in 1873)
18

This chapter (3.2) provides with a brief overview of adoption rate and PV price/watt, starting with the very
beginning, to present time and ending with a forecast prediction. The aim is to comprehend the link between
adoption and PV price and to identify for pattern. Moreover, it will enhance the knowledge of the connection
between sun irradiation level and the kWh produced, leading to possible grid-parity.
The French physicist Edmond Becquerel discovered the PV innovation in the year 1839, observing a battery
voltage increase as the sunlight hit a silver plate (Bahrami, et al., 2012; Singh, 2013). The PV technology took
the next step in 1878, as the French mathematician August Mouchet invented a solar-powered steam engine
using parabolic dish collectors. A reinvention of the solar technology followed after the Second World War,
with the development of the first solid PV solar cell silicon with an efficiency of 6% (Chaara, et al., 2011). The
solar PV industry value chain came to consist of several stages illustrated in figure 13.
Figure 13 PV value chain (Deloitte, homepage)
5.1 Present PV solar installation
PV solar energy technology is one of many renewable energy methods available.
19
Since 2000, PV production
has become the number one renewable technology, increasing more than 125 fold, with annual growth rates
between 40% and 80% the last decade (Chowdhury, et al., 2014; IEA-Technology, 2010). The worlds
cumulative installed (not production) PV capacity was approx. 24GW in 2009, 40.7GW in 2010, 71.1GW in
2011 and by 2012 the PV energy technology reach the golden mark of 100GW globally, which corresponds
to 16 coal power plants or nuclear reactors of 1GW (24hour production) (EPIA, report). An amount capable
of producing at least 110 TWh (110 billion kWh) of electricity, equivalent to approx. 0.5% of the world
annually electricity demand, which is enough energy to cover the annual power supply of over 30 million
European houses (EPIA, 2012; IEA PVPS, 2013).
20
+ Early 2014, the PV installation is on a worldwide level of
approx. 135GW (figure 14)(European commission, report).

18
Quote 5, homepage
19
Renewable energy is produced from solar, wind, water, hydropower, biomass, geothermal, biofuels and hydrogen.
Renewable nations; Iceland 100%, Norway 98%, Brazil 86%, Austria 62%, New Zealand 65%, and Sweden 54%.
20
110 TWh represent 2.6% of Europe electricity demand in 2012 and saves approx. 53 million tons of CO
2
annually.
Silicon Wafer
Cell or thin-
film
Module
PV
Manufactor
Distributor Installer Adopter
32 | P a g e


Figure 14 Accumulated and annual global PV installation; 2004 2014 (appendix 7, 4)
5.2 PV projections
The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that 5% of total global electricity consumption will be
delivered by PV solar systems by 2030 and anticipate this to increase to 11% in 2050 - corresponding to
3000GW of cumulative installed PV capacity, equivalent to 4.500TWh (IEA, 2010). To reach this astonishing
target the successful achievement is a dynamic set of technical, policy, legal, financial, market and
organizational requirements identified by the stakeholders involved in its development. (IEA, 2010 s. 5).
21

The history has lead PV solar through a price-reduction process. The prices per watt or kWh have declined
rapidly the last three decades, which has led to grid-parity in 19 nations (IEA PVPS, 2013; Business Insider,
article).

21
The political incentive schemes has to be sustained, effective and adaptive to build the necessary bridge between
the PV competitiveness, along with a long-term technology development and innovation focus, which includes novel
and existing PV technology
0
20.000
40.000
60.000
80.000
100.000
120.000
140.000
160.000
180.000
200.000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
M
E
G
A
W
A
T
T
YEAR
Total and annual global installation of all PV energy
from 2004 - 2014
Annual PV installation Accumulated PV installation
33 | P a g e

The PV price has witness a rapid decline through the past three decades, which will be put into perspective
later. In January 2014 the average PV c-Si prices hit the lowest price ever on approx. USD 0.9/watt (figure
15), making PV module closer to grid-parity around the world. Due to a strong demand for PV technology
innovation in key markets, forecasts are implying that prices will further decline. The Deutsche Bank believes
that solar energy is likely to witness a transition from subsidized to sustainable in 2014-2015 (Solarfeeds,
article). Both Germany and China have officially stated that they will cut some of the economic incentives
and leave PV solar industry to run without subsidies (Asia; The Local, article).
22

5.3 PV grid-parity
Exactly when PV solar reaches grid-parity depends very much of the circumstances of module price, module
efficiency, solar radiation, the domestic energy policy subsidies and the domestic electricity price. A PV
system real energy output (kWh) does very much depend on the irradiation and the quantity of solar hours
that the respective nation has on a yearly base. A 200W module will produce 200 watts when the sun is
delivering am irradiation at 1000 W/m2. A module then produces 200 Watts for 1 hours, equals 0.2 kWh.
However, as mentioned the irradiation is a variable and depends on the location on the hemisphere. In KSA,
an irradiation may be 2000 W/m2, which will lead to a 0.4kWh. Therefore, the irradiation variable does have
a vital influence on the PV system payback time and the actual price on price/kWh. As visualized on figure 16
(below) the grid-parity depends on the number of solar hours and the irradiation level.



22
This accounts mostly for the investment incentives for PV manufactures, due to an overcrowded market.
29,5
15
7,95
6,4
3,8
4,05
1,19
0,9
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
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U
S
D

p
e
r

w
a
t
t
Year
PV price curve Crystalline silicon module
1980 - 2014
Figure 15 - PV c-Si price curve; 1980 2014 (Appendix 7, table 2)
34 | P a g e

Summery remark
This chapter (3.2) contributed a chronological overview of adoption rate and PV price/watt, with a forecast
prediction. It furthermore illustrated the link between the suns irradiation level and the kWh produced. The
thesis is hence tuned up to perspective the next chapter (3.3) of how the PV technology performance inclined,
module price/watt declined and adoption-rate grow, by perspective the national incentive and chronological
steps taking.

Figure 16 - National PV price grid-parity (Bloomberg Energy Finance)
35 | P a g e

6. The PV industry path to prosperity
I believe that every right implies a responsibility; every opportunity, an
obligation; every possession, a duty. - John D. Rockefeller, Jr.
23

This chapter (3.3) will illustrate; USA, Japan, Germany and China from the chronological perspective of
successes (and failures). The nations provide with valuable insights into best practices and pitfalls, and is
important lessons, which may be applied to the KSA PV deployment and development policy. USA and Japan
are included as the PV innovational founding fathers, who established the initial incentives towards a
commercial PV market. Germany is included as the nation continuing the PV technology maturity with the
worlds highest domestic adoption rate - and China is included as the late entering nation that broke the PV
barriers and forced a PV price-reduction worldwide. The respective nations political effort is illustrated to
capture the most essential elements for a high technology innovation to progress, and to zoom in on the
factors that made it possible to break-down of technology and adoption barriers. Please see Appendix 2 for
various policy explanations. A policy incentive table (4) illustrates an overview of the present policy steps
taking, including a wide range of information.
Table 4 - Incentive table
24



USA Japan Germany China
Domestic PV installation
in 2013
10GW 10.5GW 35GW 10GW
Population in 2013 317,626,000 127,180,000 80,619,000 1,360,720,000
Installation Per Capita 31.5 watt per capita 82.5 watt per capita 441.5 watt per capita 7 watt per capita
National area in Sq km
2
9,147,420 km
2
364,500 km
2
348,610 km
2
9,327,489 km
2

Watt per Sq km
2
1.01 watt/Sq km
2
28.8 watt/Sq km
2
102. watt/Sq km
2
1.07 watt/Sq km
2

PV world market share 7.7% 8.1% 24.9% 7.7%

Incentive program

Feed-In tariff
and
Net Metering

USA have no FIT, but
do have NEM

Highly decentralize
energy sector.

SunShot initiative
(2010-2020)
High FIT NEM
Utilities are buying
the residential
overproduction at
USD 0.41 kWh.

New FIT scheme
(2010)
High FIT
Buying all residential
PV electricity
USD 0.20 kWh (USD
0.50 kWh in 2010)

New FIT scheme
(2010)
FIT
Residential FIT USD
buying all PV
electricity USD
0.19/kWh.

Golden Sun
Program
(2009)
Domestic utility price 0.13 USD/kWh 0.19 USD/kWh 0.36 USD/kWh 0.12 USD/kWh



Investor Support

30% cash-incentive

A subsidy grant of
USD 0.47/W is
payback for
residential projects.
Residential loan
To 80% to a
1.91% guaranteed
for 10 years. No
Subsidy of USD
2.47/W for rooftop
systems and USD
3.30/W BIPV
systems. Subsidy at

23
Quote 6, homepage
24
Sources: Stats; Data; Nextcity; Blomberg; Reuters; Guardian, homepage
36 | P a g e


Grants and loan
Public/commercial



Subsidy grants of
30% for the
commercial sector
and 50% public
sector



payback the first 2
year.

Subsidy grants of
15% and 30%
(depending of
region) of total
project costs for
large-scale projects


50% of critical
component.
Installation >50kW.
R&D
exemption of import
tax and VAT.
Grants of 50% of the
total cost for on-grid
systems and 70% of
the total cost for off-
grid systems over 300
kW
National PV domestic goals 302GW 2030 28GW by 2020 52GW by 2020 20GW by 2020
Co
2
Emission reduction
17% by 2020
(comp.2005)
3.8% by 2020
(comp.2005)
40% by 2020 (comp.
2005)
40-45% by 2020
(Comp. 2005)
6.1 The United States of America commercial PV market took off in the 1960s and was for many decades
controlled by the NASA space programs, with a small demand and expensive prices at approx. USD 10 million
for 100 kW capacity (Lester, et al 2009; Chaar, et al., 2011). In 1978, the first Energy Tax Act was launch
offering a 30% investment tax-credit for residential PV consumers and a 10% investment tax-credit for
business consumers. In 1979, US launched a USD 3 billion R&D- program, which led to the 1980s PV
domination, representing 80-85% world market-share (Jones and Bouamane, 2012). In 2005, all utilities
companies in the US where requested by the US government to offer NEM system, and by 2013 in 43 states
had introduced NEM. USA passed the 10GW PV energy mark, generated 8.86 million megawatt-hours in
2013, providing 0.22% of the US energy (EIA, 2013; s, article).
A study over a period from 1997-2009, showed that states offering tax-incentives such as income, sales, or
property tax incentives did not experience systematically stronger deployment of PV technology compared
to states not offering tax-incentives (Sarzynski et al. 2012). On the other hand, states offering cash-incentives,
such as rebates or grant incentives had consistently and significantly stronger deployment of PV between
1999 to 2009, with a 248% higher amount of PV installed, compared to states not having a cash incentive.
The reason to the large variation in the cash-incentive vs. tax-incentives effect may relate to the scale of
which the incentive is conducted. Cash incentives also tend to be simple in design, large in value and easy to
claim by the purchaser within a short period of time after purchase (i.e., 90 days) (Sarzynski 2010) - whereas
tax incentives relay on income, property, and sales, tends to be more confusing, complex and smaller in
value.
25
In 2008, a 30% federal tax-credit was applied for residential and commercial installations, which in
2009 was changed to a 30% cash incentive grant.

25
Sales taxes are typically less than 10% of the sales price for the modules before installation, whereas income tax and
cash incentives are often high as 30% of the total cost including installation.
37 | P a g e

In 2010, the Department of Energy announced the SunShot incentive program, which drives research,
manufacturing, and market solutions to make the abundant solar energy resources in the United States more
affordable and accessible for Americans (DOE, homepage). The SunShot vision is to make the total cost of
solar energy economically viable and affordable by reduce PV cost by 75% 2020, making solar energy fully
cost competitive (see appendix 2.1 for more information).

Since SunShot's launch in 2011, the average price
per kWh of a utility-scale PV project has dropped from about USD 0.21/kWh to USD 0.11/kWh. The program
aims is continue the PV reduction to approx. USD 0.06/kWh by 2020 (DOE; DOE 1, homepage), crossing the
grid-parity to the conventional electricity rate at approx. 0.13/kWh (in some states)(EIA, homepage).
However, if PV system costs are able to hit the US Department of Energy (DOE), solar energy will have an
even more compelling value proposition in spite of low electricity rates in the US. The US Sunshot program
aims at no less than 302GW by 2030 (Sunshot, report). In addition to the financial incentives, many US states
have implemented Renewable Portfolio Standards policy, which demands that the utilities produce a certain
share of the total electricity sold to arrive from renewable energy (Glachant, et al., 2010; Wiser and Barbose,
2008).
6.1.1 The US PV market structure
The US market-structure is highly decentralized. In US, there is no single dominant market for PV, as the US
is a conglomerate of 50 regional markets and states - all of which have their own respective financial incentive
regulation. The private sector interests and anti-government sentiments are particularly influential, which
limits the effectiveness of governmental energy policy and ensures that the DOE only has a minor control of
the energy market or the states individual policy. This makes it harder to accomplish a rapid transition to
sustainable energy through direct, federal regulation (Solomon and Krishna 2011).
The US PV industry structure consists mostly of small intermediary systems manufactories, integrators and a
very fragmented PV value chain. USA has consistently pursued a PV deployment policy of explorations of the
high-value diverse markets. Due to the fragmented nature of the US, learning adoption curve among various
market players will be more challenging. The US government is emerging within training and certification of
the system integrators or installers community, which will somewhat accelerate the standardization of
professional practices and learning.
6.2 The Japanese PV adventure started immediately after the Bell Institute invented silicon solar cells in
1953. However, the actual backbone of the private activities started in 1974, taking its course to the first
initial steps of PV energy incentive and subsidies from where three distinct phases occurred (Chowdhury, et
al., 2014; Watanabe, et al., 2007; Ikki, 2003);
1
st
phase (1974-1994): Technology development and market creation. The market was very small, as no
demand existed for power applications. However, a significant step was taken by launching the Sunshine
38 | P a g e

Program in the period 1974-1981, which was later intensified. The Sunshine Program provided with approx.
USD 6 billion between 1980 and 1990s and was a major stimulus for the PV development activities and PV
manufacturing. In 1990, the Electricity Utility Industry Law amendment was initiated to simplify the
installation procedure of PV systems under 500 kW (Ikki, 2003). The Japanese government estimated the
demand and supply balance of electricity from a long-term perspective, settling the guidelines of the
technical requirements for grid-connection, and the utility-companies introduced the NEM in 1992
(Chowdhury, et al., 2014; Ikki, 2003).
2
nd
phase (1994 2005): Market development. In 1993, the Sunshine Program merged with the Moonlight
Program and formed the the New Sunshine Project. Japan made huge progress due to research,
development and demonstration programs. The installation of residential PV system rapidly increased, due
to simplified procedures of PV installation and technical guidelines for grid-connection, the investment
subsidy for residential PV systems, and the NEM provided by electric power companies. In 2000, an era of
diffusion arrived driven by the robust political incentives, launching a global environmental crusade that
made Japan the dominating PV industry until 2004. In this period, the Japanese PV market increased 41 fold
from 7MW in 1994 to 290MW in 2005, with a subsidized PV energy reduction-cost of USD 8.8/watt in 1994,
which was reduced the subsidy to only USD 0.2/watt in 2005.
3
rd
phase (2005 - 2011): Market development recovery. The PV installation gradually decreased in the early
period of the 3
rd
phase, due to the subsidy-cut (to 0.2/watt). However, a new power purchase scheme
restarted the adoption curve in 2009. The Japanese accumulated domestic installed to 4.7GW in 2011,
accelerating to approx. 10.5GW 2013 (Clean Technia, article).

Figure 17 - PV domestic market in Japan, 19902013 (Appendix 7, 8.1)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
M
e
g
a
w
a
t
t

YEAR
Annually installed PV capacity in Japan, 1990 - 2013
39 | P a g e

The programs promoted technology R&D and a wide number of demonstration projects, which founded the
demand of PV solar power. The programs furthermore benefits with evolving manufactures production
experience and improve process technologies through learning-by-doing build the PV industry main-pillar
(Chowdhury, et al., 2014). The strong government commitment to develop and adopt PV stimulated private
investments, which rose well over governmental subsidies. A visibility marketing stunt was initiated 2
nd

phase, as launching PV modules on government office buildings following the guideline of the green
government office building (Ikki, 2003; Chowdhury, et al., 2014). The local governments followed the
national trend and started to introduce PV into public facilities. A ripple effect had become a reality, as cities,
towns, and villages adopted subsidy programs from their own budget for the residential purpose.
In 2009, Japan government declared new national goal to increase the domestic deployment level to 28GW
in 2020 (Chowdhury, et al., 2014). To achieve this goal, the government recently (2011) implemented a new
feed-in tariff (FIT), which is expected to intensely increase the PV energy adoption rate. This new FIT requires
the utility companies to purchase the overproduction of the residential PV system at twice the current price
(USD 0.41/kWh) of electricity, which is relatively high compared with Germany and China (table 4).
Moreover, a subsidy grant of approx. USD 0.47/watt is payback for residential projects (Chowdhury, et al.,
2014). In addition, in 2009, the government has provided several hundred million dollars to subsidize non-
residential installation costs - 30% of for commercial sector and 50% for the public sector (ibid).
6.2.1 The Japanese PV market structure
The Japanese PV industry structure is based on a (relatively) few large and integrated bundle of PV
companies, comprehending the whole PV value chain (Watanabe, et al., 2007). The leading Japanese PV
manufactures, as Kyocera, Sharp, Mitsubishi Electric, Kaneka, Sanyo Electric, took initiatives to develop a
variety of PV modules to satisfy the market needs (Ikki, 2003).
26

Companies from various industries, sectors and nations cooperated with the PV industry actors. E.g. Kawasaki
Heavy Industries tied up with Eva Green Solar of the US; Mitsubishi Heavy Industries started to manufacture
PV energy in 2002; Matsushita Seiko purchased a PV division from Air Water and produced PV, etc. Moreover,
railway companies, service stations, restaurants, and communication companies, made PV installation into
their branch facilities all over Japan, improving the public visibility (Ikki, 2003).
The Japanese success is a result of thriving public investment in all three phases in the PV solar technology
innovation pipeline, including not only research and development funding, but also demonstrating originality
and an early deployment effort. Japan is an example that a full-scale deployment and adoption of PV

26
Including roof-integrated-, outer wall-integrated-, curved roof-integrated- (industrial facilities), colored-, and semi-
transparent modules.
40 | P a g e

technology is established by manufacturers continuous efforts to reduce production-cost, with help of the
governments incentives and subsidy to create the initial market.
6.3. The German PV investment increased from USD 13 million in 1974 to USD 81 million in 1978, and
continued at USD 203 million in 1982 (Lauber and Mez 2004). In 1990, the German government launched a
1,000 roof program under which the federal government provided 50% of the investment costs plus a further
20% from the state governments, leading 2,250 roofs being equipped with PV modules. The PV solar industry
and the solar roofs programs grew further following the establishment of a policy known as a FIT introduced
in 1991. In 1999, a 100,000 Solar Roofs Initiative was launched with a USD 940 million subsidy budget, which
moved PV energy in Germany beyond niche-markets to become a mass-manufacture PV industry (Tveten, et
al., 2013; Grau, et al., 2011). In 2000, the Renewable Energy Sources Act established a revised FIT regime,
which has fixed rates on for next 20 years providing investment certainty for adopters and companies. The
FIT scheme is the core element for public support of R&D and investment support for manufacturing plants,
which stabilize and shape the future for PV in Germany (Avril et al 2012). The profit incentive for houses to
adopt solar systems worked as an effective inducement and by 2008 an estimated half a million German
roofs had solar systems (Jones, et al., 2012). Since 2000, the PV market increased 170 fold, growing annually
from 40MW in 2000 to 7.6GW in 2011 and then slow-down to 3.3GW in 2013, due to the FIT subsidy-cut
(Renewables International, article). The accumulated capacity grew from 126 MW in 2000 to approx. 35GW
in 2013, corresponding to approx. 5.6% the annual energy consumption, which makes Germany the world
largest and most successful commercial market (Chowdhury, et al., 2014; Tveten, et al., 2013; Wirth, 2013).
27


27
In 2006, Germany had 81% of the installed capacity worldwide, 64% in 2007, 35% in 2008 and 67% in 2009.
Figure 18 - PV domestic market in Germany, 19902013 (appendix 7, 8.2)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
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e
g
a
w
a
t
t
YEAR
Annually installed PV capacity in Germany, 1991 - 2013
41 | P a g e

The FIT policy was very generous and the key-factor for Germany to take over the throne (from Japan in
2005) as the world largest producing nation. One of the benefits of the German FIT is that it provides
economic incentives for adopter to buy PV systems, as the FIT is exclusively fed into the grid, reducing the
payback period. In this way, the market adoption expands from those who buy PV for purely environmental
reasons, to the more pragmatic users, making cost/benefit considerations within PV applicability,
practicality performance and economic possibilities (Chowdhury, et al., 2014). Besides the government
supported FIT, private and companies could receive preferable loans and financial guarantees for PV projects.
The state-owned German Development Bank guaranteed investors loans at 80% with interests rates at
1.91% and with no immediately payment the first 2 years (see appendix 2.2 for more information) (Grau, et
al., 2011).
In 2003 2009, Germany allocated USD 6.4 billion in deployment support, USD 880 million in investment
support for manufacturing plants and USD 80 million in R&D support. In the period 2010-2014, USD 137
million was allocated for new R&D projects, with the aim of improving production-cost and the efficiency of
the PV modules (Grau, et al., 2011). However, the sudden decline in PV prices of 43% from 2009 - 2010
(figure 19) led to a massive increase in the adopter profitability, leading to a much higher deployment volume
than expected. The FIT support budget between 2009 - 2010 rose to a factor three, costing USD 13 billion
instead of the estimated USD 5.3 billion, as the lucrative conditions for PV investors costs normal energy
consumers (Leepa, et al., 2013). Germanys 2013 FIT is set at approx. USD 0.20/kWh (2.5 times lower than
Figure 19 - German PV module price decline, 2009 2014 (Appendix 7, 1)
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
4
2009 May 2010 Jan 2010 May 2011 Jan 2011 May 2012 Jan 2012 May 2013 Jan 2013 May 2014 Jan
U
S
D

p
e
r

w
a
t
t
Year
Germany PV Price, 2009 - 2014
42 | P a g e

2010) and is set to further decline until completely be abolished when exceeding in 52GW capacity by
reducing the FIT quarterly based on the installed capacity. (Leepa, et al., 2013; Barbose, et al., 2013).
28

6.3.1 The German PV market structure
The structure of German energy distribution was privatized in 1998. Today, the German PV industry includes
approx. 40 manufactures (70 in 2008) of silicon, wafers, solar cell and modules, and approx. 100 PV
equipment and material suppliers, more than 100 balance-of-system component suppliers and a workforce
of over 100 thousand people (Grau, et al., 2011; Industry overview; The PV Market in Germany 2013/2014,
report). The number of companies in the first stage production PV value chain is relatively small, with Wacker
Chemie AG as the main leader (figure 20). The quantity of companies rises towards the end of the production
chain, with the leading companies in combining wafer, cell and module is SolarWorld, Conergy and Sovello
(Grau, et al., 2011). Germany have grown a cluster-infrastructure of leading global PV players, innovative
small and medium-sized enterprises, renowned research institutes, and equipment and material suppliers
(Industry overview;
The PV Market in
Germany 2013/2014,
report). The German
PV industry has
clustered up in
different sectors,
illustrating the

28
The FITs was schedule a gradual reduction cut by 3% and an additional 3% for each GW exceeding the governments
target up to a maximum of 15% p.a. This had the opposite effect, as the adoption then peaked phenomenally weeks
before the FIT cut-off (see appendix 6 for more information).
Figure 20 - German upstream PV value chain (Grau, et al., 2011)
Figure 21 German PV cluster (Industry overview; The PV Market in Germany 2013/2014, report)
43 | P a g e

knowledge and technology development across the sectors (figure 21). The backbone for a mature PV
structure is demonstrated by the presence of a number of highly experienced project developers, system
integrators, and installers provides, all of which is the key source for a rapid market growth. The mature
infrastructure combined with a transparent FIT system in application and building permit grants the German
market to maintain a high level of demand with a short execution time (Grau, et al., 2011).
6.4 The Chinese PV adventure was a late-entry that took advantage of the PV maturing technology steps
taken by USA, Japan and Germany. China merely had to create incentives for developing the domestic
national PV industry, by transferring the knowledge and technology (as KSA will have to). In 1999, China
established the Ministry of Science and Technology to support PV deployment, investment for the
manufacturing plants and PV R&D (appendix 2.3).
29
China has become the largest PV manufacturing nation,
with more than 35% of the world production (98% export) and an export of 21GW of PV modules in 2011
(Zhang, et al., 2013; Glachant, et al., 2010). In 2009, a series of domestic incentives supported PV adoption-
rate, which made the domestic accumulative installed capacity expanded from 140MW in 2008 to 6.5GW in
2012, and 10GW total domestic installed in the end of 2013 (Chinaorg, article

). A combination of large-scale
demonstration projects and new FIT incentives is the result of the past yeas strong domestic increase, as well
as a highly developed PV manufacturing infrastructure. China aims for a total domestic PV installation of
20GW by 2020 (Neuhoff et al. 2012). China have issued several PV policy incentives (Zhang, et al., 2013):
The Golden Sun Program (2009) provides grants with 50% for on-grid systems and 70% for off-grid systems
no less than 300kW. The Solar Roofs Subsidy Program (2009) provides with high upfront subsidy of USD
2.47/watt for rooftop systems and USD 3.30/watt BIPV systems. The program provides with a subsidy of 50%
of critical components such as PV converters, battery etc. In 2011, China presented the 12th Five Year Plan
for Renewable Energy Development (2012 2017), which will provide with nationwide FIT scheme at USD
0.19/kWh (Zhang, et al., 2013). Moreover, Chinese government will provide technical service, including
equipment testing, integration plan developing to eliminate adoption barriers (Neuhoff et al. 2012). PV
technology manufactures with strong cost-efficient will benefit directly from investment support, as well as
subsidies, reduces taxes, public guarantees and interest-reduces loans. Loan and credit facilities are provided
by Ministry of Finance or state banks for PV manufacturers and promoters. In Q3 2010 Chinese Bank issued
loan and credit for; USD 8.9 billion credit facility by China Development Bank given USD 5.3 billion loan by
China Development Bank Corp to Yingli Green Energy, USA 4.4 billion loan by China Development Bank to JA
Solar, USD 1.9 billion credit facilities to Solarfun. Furthermore, exemption of import tax and VAT is granted
when R&D-institution purchase equipment and instrument related to R&D process (ibed). Moreover,

29
The funding supports areas are refund of loan interest, refund of electricity consumption fees, refund of transfer fee,
refund of corporate income tax and refund of value added tax payment.
44 | P a g e

knowledgeable and educated persons in the particular technical areas are being provided higher salaries and
may receive a national research or provincial title worth USD 32 million (only with a R&D department).
30

Chinese PV industry have benefited from educated top-executives, transferring PV network and technology
knowledge acquired in foreign nations, and is considered a key factor of PV success.
6.4.1 The Chinese PV market structure
China is a very centralized PV industry, which enhancing a more governmental controlled energy supply
(Solomon and Krishna 2011). The PV industry is shaped by large PV industry leaders with more than 75%
controlled by 6-7 companies (six silicon, six wafer, seven cell and seven module manufacturers)(figure 22).
The research, development and high investment have generated Chinas worlds leading production
manufacturers. Chinese PV companies are highly integrated across the PV production value chain, making it
streamlined and avoids a production bottleneck.
31
The Chinese PV market model is shaped as a competitive
bidding structure. The Provincial governments select investors and projects and submit recommendations to
central government, which then makes the final decision (Neuhoff et al. 2012). In 2009, China had attracted
one third of the global Foreign Direct investment (FDI) flows, accelerating the technology transfers. The FDI
mainly occurred through the establishment of joint-ventures between local and the foreign western partners
PV company, boosted the knowledge and technology transfer to China (Glachant, et al., 2010).

30
PhD receive extra; USD 160/month, senior titles USD 130/month, Master-degree USD 100/month.
31
The Chinese business model is not that different from the German, but the combination of cheap labour, material
and production facilities make the Chinese PV sector a dominant global manufacturing player.
Figure 22 China PV upstream PV value chain (Grau, et al., 2011)
45 | P a g e

6.5 Patents in USA, Japan, Germany and China
Patents offers a valuable indication of a nation
innovative activity, which may provide with a
noteworthy cross-country comparisons. PV energy
technology has experienced a rapid increase in patent
activities in all four countries (figure 24). The total
global patent applications have grown from 138
patents in 2001 to 2344 patents 2011 indicating that
the innovation pace is inclining impressive (Glachant,
et al., 2010). Although being the top manufacturer as
well as market with most installed PV modules, China
and Germanys share of patent applications in 2011
was only 19%. The four leading nations represent
approx. 74% of the worlds total PV patent
applications in 2011 (Glachant, et al., 2010). An
interesting patent occurrence took place in 2006-
2007 (figure 23) as Chinas activity within the
upstream patent of the PV value chain (silicon
production and wafer manufacturing) consisted of
37%. In this period, Chinas main PV activities were
primarily in the downstream PV production (modules,
manufacturing, assembling, distribution) (Glachant, et al., 2010). The insufficient comprehension of the
upstream silicon segment appears to be a barrier for the Chinese PV manufactures competitive supply of
production equipment. (Glachant, et al., 2010). The Chinese high patent applications in silicon is an evidence
of China unlocking the knowledge-intense upstream part of the PV value chain, which became a main game-
changer for the global PV module price.
6.6 The World dominating PV companies
The top 10 PV industry global leaders in 1988 was scattered throughout the US, European and Japanese
continent and represented approx. 67.5% of the accumulated market.
In 2013, seven top 10 companies (and 9 of top 15) is located in China moreover, Sharp Solar (Japan), First
Solar (USA) and Kyocera (Japan) was ranking in top 10 (table 5) . The explosive growth of the Japanese PV
market in 2013 provided the basis for strong growth in module supply from the leading Japanese brands,
Figure 24 - Annual patent application for PV (Glachant, et al., 2010)
Figure 23 PV ustream patent 20062007 (Glachant, et al.,
2010)
46 | P a g e

which lead to Sharp Solar third and Kyocera ninth ranking in 2013. However, the Chinese top PV manufacture
Suntech Power (1
st
position in 2008, 2010 and 2011) filed for bankruptcy in March 2013 (Economist, article).
A rather interesting discovery consist of the Norwegian PV company REC Group ability to be among the top
leading PV manufacturing and supplier (number 8
th
in 2011) (table 6, appendix 3.1). A search to why the REC
Group success, lead me to one of the two founders, Alf Bjoerseth, who have a high knowledge capital within
silicon manufacturing (earlier teacher in chemistry). REC Group was founded in 1994 (before China enriched
the ability to manufacturing cheap silicon), when there was a low supply and a high demand for solar silicon,
making the price high and REC Group a very good business (Gasp Solar, Interview).
32
However, as the
upstream-market has become more competitive, prices has declined, resulting in REC Group acquisition of
the (less knowledge intensive) part of the PV value chain. REC Group head-start in the silicon manufacturing,
generated the advantage of producing very cost-efficient PV production in Norway (Gasp Solar,
Interview)(See appendix 3.3 for more information).
Table 6 and Table 7 (in appendix 3.1 and 3.2) illustrates a notable national difference in the top PV
manufacturing companies and top PV innovation companies. China do not have one PV company in the top
15 innovational companies, that have the efficiency record within the respective PV technologies. This is
highly interesting, as it do illustrate a possible lack of innovation drive in the Chinese PV industry or
technology push (R&D) incentives. However, the US, Japan and Germany are scattered and largely
presented, with USA as the dominating nation with 8 out of 15 innovation companies (table 7, appendix 3.2).

32
An email correspondence was conduction the 4 of march 2014 with Gasp Solar.
Figure 25 - Top 10 PV company in 1988 (Jones, et al., 2012)
17,5
16,5
10
8
5,5
4,5
2
2
1,5
32,5
Top 10 PV companies, 1988
Siemens Solar - Germany
Solec/Sanyo - Japan
Solarex - US
ASE (RWE Schott Solar) - Germany
Kyocera - Japan
BP Solar - U.K.
Photowatt - France
Sharp - Japan
Helios - Italy
Other companies
47 | P a g e

Tabel 5 - World ranking of PV companies from 2008 2013
33

World
Ranking
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
1
st

Suntech

First Solar

Suntech

Suntech

Yinli

Yinli

2
nd

Sharp

Suntech

First Solar

First Solar

First Solar

Trina Solar

3
rd

First Solar

Sharp

Sharp

Yinli

Trina Solar

Sharp Solar

4
th

Yinli

Yinli

Yinli

Trina Solar

Canadian Solar

Canadian
Solar
5
th

Kyocera

Trina Solar

Trina Solar
Canadian
Solar
Suntech

Jinko Solar

6
th

SunPower

SunPower

Canadian Solar

Sharp

Sharp

ReneSola

7
th

Trina Solar

Kyocera

Kyocera

Jinko Solar

Jinko Solar
First Solar

8
th

Sanyo
Electric

Canadian
Solar
SunPower SunPower

SunPower

Hanwha
SolarOne

9
th

Canadian
Solar
SolarWorld

Hanwha
SolarOne
Hanwha
SolarOne
REC Group

Kyocera

10
th

SolarWorld

Sanyo
Electric
SolarWorld

Kyocera

Hanwha
SolarOne
JA Solar

Summery remark
This chapter (3.3) provided with a clear indication that the injection of governmental instrumental support
through policy regulation have had been a key-character for the PV solar success. The policy of; R&D funding,
taxes incentives, government subsidies for adopters and the PV value chain has shown to be valuable
instruments when implemented in the respective PV industry structures. Moreover, the comparative
presentation of the world dominating companies with the innovational companies illustrated a clear
distinction of national originating.

33
Source: PVtech; PV science; RenewableWorld; ECM; Solarenergytrends (Hompage)
48 | P a g e

7. PV steps of tomorrow
Life can only be understood backwards, but it must be lived forwards -
Soren Kirkegaard
34

The chapter (3.4) have gathered three aspects for KSA to considerate, when developing the future foundation
of PV energy. Firstly, is illuminated BIPV and the barriers for this new potential market; secondly, is the PV
environment consequence; and thirdly, is a perspective of the PV Recycling.
7.1 Build Integrating PV
PV technology has several application possibilities due to the great variation in efficiency output, flexibility,
quality, etc. BIPV systems incorporates PV properties into building materials such as roofing, siding, and glass.
BIPV may be seen from an integration between three industry actors; PV solar companies, construction
companies and architects. BIPV may offer advantages as an esthetic architectural design, and as energy
material substitute for conventional materials. The design and architectural functionality can be classified
according to the use: BIPV roofing, BIPV facade, BIPV urban furniture and BIPV custom design (Cern, et al.,
2013). The BIPV may be satisfying in esthetic and functionality, creating a new market segment opportunity
of business-to-business. The new application possibilities illustrates the innovative focus importance within
the PV industry, as improving the modularity and flexibility (Cern, et al., 2013).
The BIPV potentials for diffusion is driven by factors such as the PV engineering, PV energy performance,
limitation within architectural design and the cost. It is hence valuable to reach a satisfied level between
energy performance, architectural of esthetics and a reasonable price level. An enhanced collaboration
between PV solar companies, construction companies and architects may constitute more innovative PV
elements in terms of design and architectural functionality - some BIPV has already been developed as:
enclosure, shading, waterproofing, thermal insulation, acoustic insulation, finishing-buildings and street
lighting. PV c-Si is the most widely used technology in BIPV modules with approx. 82% in 2012 (range between
100 W/m2 and 150 W/m2) (Green, et al., 2012). The use of thin-film was earlier noticeably better as a BIPV
supplement, containing the advantage of flexibility and more transparent then other PV technology, although
market shares decreased from 24.2% in 2010 to 9.2% in 2012.
35
PV c-Si improved, and today enables
transparency possibilities and a fare better performance (Cern, et al., 2013; Green, et al., 2012).
7.2 PV environmental hazard
PV technology methods produces, like any other industry, pollution. This section will examine the
environmental consequents and compare it to the conventional energy method, to get an idea of how

34
Quote 7, homepage
35
Thin-film is still most used technology in facade systems.
49 | P a g e

environmental-friendly PV energy really is. The PV pollution derives first of all from generation of the
electricity for PV manufacturing facilities, as the production of PV modules demands energy, which may arrive
from fossil fuel, nuclear fission etc. Scientists calculated that the ecological burden of PV technology may be
reduced by as much as half if the factories used PV solar energy as energy resource (Fthenakis, et al., 2010).
A second source of pollution derives from the fabrication and use of semiconductor materials in PV cells. A
third source of pollution stems from the PV modules is being scraped or re-placed, as the materials inside
the PV modules have the potential to cause pollution and environmental destruction if discarded improperly
(Scientific America, article).
Studies investigating different PV technologies does however prove PV energy to environmentally friendly
(Sherwani, et al., 2009; Fthenakis, et al., 2010). PV energy used in manufacturing the modules has a payback
in 2 - 3 years for rooftop installations and 3-4 years for megawatt ground mounted system (Sherwani, et
al., 2009). Comparing with conventional energy, PV c-Si cells is one of the most energy intensive technologies
emit just 55 grams Co
2
pollution per kWh, which is a tiny proportion of the nearly one kilogram Co
2
per kWh
by a coal power plant (Sherwani, et al., 2009; Scientific America, article). PV types of technology, such as thin-
film, c-Si and multi-junction all proves to deduce significantly fewer emissions in their entire product lifecycle
than conventional energy (EST, 2008). Moreover, the current efficiency improvements and reduced amount
of material used is making PV even more environmental friendly. If replace with fossil fuels, PV power cut air
pollution by nearly 90% (Fthenakis, et al., 2010). The PV modules are designed for maximum use of recycled
material, which will reduce the energy requirement (Sherwani, et al., 2009).
7.3 PV recycling
With a growing global interest for PV solar energy, it is certain that the growing PV production will generate
a significant amount of retiring PV modules in the next decades, which will have to be safely discharged,
disposed or recycled (Fthenakis, 2009 ; Van der Have, 2009). A proactive systems approach is needed to
resolve the issues on natural resources scarcity and
material price increases, as some of the used for PV
semiconductor material is highly limited, as well as
intoxicated to the environment if not disposed properly
(DTU, Interview; Fthenakis, et al., 2013). To ensure the
sustainability of large-scale PV deployment, it is
necessary to develop and institute low-cost recycling
with the rapid commercialization. A proper end-of-life
management will offer a sustainable solution to resource
availability, economic feasibility and environmental
Figure 26 - Illustration of the PV Recycling Cycle
50 | P a g e

risks. Additionally, the cost of e.g. PV c-Si cell, wafers and cell fabrication represent over 70% of the modules
cost, which makes PV rational to recycle from both an economic and environmental perspective (PVlab,
article).
36
Since the PV industry needs to continue reducing the system costs to be sustainable in a
competitive conventional energy market, the cost of compliance must be minimized, which requires
optimization of both the collection and the material recovery stages. (Coelho, et al., 2013). Although a the
awareness of recycling processes are in the preliminary stage, a few global PV manufacturers have initiated
a recycling techniques (SolarWorld, Interview), although the core infrastructure for recycling end-of-life PV
modules does not yet exist (Fthenakis, et al., 2013).
37
However, a holistic consideration of the economic- and
environmental- concern of the entire PV recycling network systems are inevitable (Fthenakis, et al., 2013).
Summery remark
This chapter (3.4) illuminated the three aspects; BIPV, PV Environment and PV Recycling, each of which were
disclosed as valuable concepts, when establishing a future PV industry. The thesis third chapter (3.1, 3.2, 3.3
and 3.4) have concretized valuable insights and empirical information that now are ready to will be analyzed
in the following chapter (4).


36
The European PV industry has initiated the development of a recycling infrastructure with the Waste Electrical and
Electronic Equipment (WEEE) Directive.
37
Various stakeholders will be involved in the recycling network and the issue of management covers diverse aspects
such as the collection, distribution, inventory, and reclaiming of materials. Within such a complex recycling network, a
systematic approach has to be adopted to adequately capture the dynamic interactions between stakeholders.
51 | P a g e

8. Analyzing the PV past, present and prediction
Because each qualitative study is unique, the analytical approach used will
be unique Michael Quinn Patton
38

This chapter (4) focus is to analyze the empirical insights and contribution (chapter 3) through the theoretical
framework (chapter 2) of the 4T-model. The model server as the analytical lens though the circulation around
the three central elements; PV technology, PV industry and PV adoption segments, including the influence
of the temporary implemented PV policy incentives. The analytical chapter (4) will hence attempt to provide
with an explanation with how a nation may investment in PV technology and knowledge to adapt a healthy
adoption rate that will require less economic policy contributions in time, with the aim of being a sustainable
and (policy) economic independent. This will hence shape the thesis next chapter (5) builds a basis for
valuable suggestions and recommendations in the concluding section. To enhance a clear overview, the
chapter (4) will be structured as the step 3 (consisting of 3.1, 3.2, 3.3, 3.4) in the readers guide (figure 3).
8.1 The PV technology potential future
The first analysis part will illuminate the three categorized PV technologies; (1) state-of-art PV (2) standard
PV and (3) novel PV - respectively (1) Multi-junction, CPV, (2) mono and poly c-Si, (3) nanowire and organic,
which each contain certain strengths and weaknesses, depending on the purpose and place of use.
8.1.1 PV time of innovation impact
Many high technology product innovations do not achieved a mainstream market position (early and late
majority), despite the fact that the products actually do work reasonably well. The lack of breakthrough may
coexist with the lack of market demand. The first (parabolic) solar power plant where developed in Egypt in
1912, but no actual adoption happened before 1980s, due to the lack of an demand for an energy alternative
(Seba 2012) illustrating that the PV product functionality may be there, but there has to be a market-
demand.
Dealing with an energy utility producing innovation, we are facing questions of implications within price,
performance, practicality and applicability. These four fundamental barriers are the key to a product
diffusion and market expansion and ground elements in a GTP. The aim is to understand the real world
phenomena and the timing of benefits to PV technology. It is natural to examine the diffusion of a GPT as
being between raw invention and the ultimate productivity use or output growth. The diffusion or adoption
delay between the date of invention and the date of full realization of economic gains relies on the adoption
segment acceptance of the GPT as the value-proposition of PV technology depends of the very existence

38
Quote 8, homepage
52 | P a g e

of electricity equipment (e.g. lamps, mobile phones, PCs etc.). The PV innovation may first be characterized
as a GPT, when the surrounding environment demands the purpose of its practical presence (Bresnahan,
2010). Evidently, there are many reasons for slow a product diffusion (early stage) followed by rapid diffusion,
reaching the early and late majority.
8.1.2 The commercial PV technology
The PV commercial market range from; Multi-junction, CPV, c-Si and thin-film. The multi-junction has a very
limited market share, due to the specific market adopter demand. The dominant commercial PV technology
and the most relevant for a mass market adoption is (without resembling) the mono and poly-c-Si, with a
market share of 85-90% in 2013, in a combination with a declining thin-film technology at approx. 5-9. The
non-commercial, but somehow interesting novel PV technologies range from; PV organic and PV Nanowires.
8.1.3 PV price relation
The PV innovation technology has to compete in price with the existing products on the market, or else it
would be less than a GPT - and not fulfill the criteria to the early and late majority adoption rate. Price is the
most sensitive element for a product to break through the customer barrier, and evidently price (in terms of
value) is a relative and complex size. One key adoption factor naturally exists in the cost/benefit perception
of the PV technology (new technology innovation). Moreover, as there already do exists an alternative
electricity method, the emerging PV technology will automatically be measured with the existing
conventional energy alternative. This leads automatically to perspective the PV price level and its effect on
the national PV adoption rate. As figure 27 illustrates, the PV price has dropped phenomenally from USD
30/watt in 1980 to USD 0.9/watt in January 2014. The price development in the period 2008-2014 is
characterized as being the most essential period for triggering the experienced adoption rate (with an
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
G
L
O
B
A
L

A
N
N
U
A
L
L
Y

M
E
G
A

W
A
T
T

I
N
S
T
A
L
L
E
D

U
S
D

P
E
R

W
A
T
T
YEAR
Global adoption and price-reduction
Figure 27 Global Adoption and price-reduction curve (Appendix 7, 6.1 )
53 | P a g e

estimated 49GW annual growth in in 2014, also plotted in). The PV price/watt reached in this period a
satisfied adopter value-proposition level (cost/benefit in compare with the conventional energy), though still
with national subsidy programs. Along the PV commercial journey, starting in USA in the 1960s, the
circulation between governmental subsidies, technology enhancement, and organizational capability
development have generated an impressive technology price-reduction and a fairly (subjective) impressive
adoption-rate. PV has become an alternative energy resource, not only reaching the early market segment
(technology enthusiast and visionaries), but also the early and late majority adoption segment (pragmatist
and conservatives).
An obvious question concerns whether the PV market is close to being saturated, or if there still is a flourish
demand in the next decade to come. When comparing the Installation per Capita and Watt per Sq Km
2

(table 4) for USA, Japan, Germany and China, it is reasonable to imply that there is plenty of adoption
possibilities and untouched market shares. Germany, with approx. 35GW installed in yearly 2014, is the
nation with the most PV installed per capita. Germanys 441.5 watt per capita is 63 fold Chinas, 14 fold USAs
and 5.3 fold Japans installation per Capita. Looking at the Watt per Sq Km
2
, Germanys 102.11 watt/Sq km
2

leads massively compared to China (fold 95.3), USA (fold 100.9) and Japan (fold 3.5). Although, Germany
watt per capita and watt/Sq km
2
is considered to be relatively high (in context with other nations), the
numbers also clearly illustrates a hidden PV potential and future and a mass-market adoption to satisfy. This
implying that the global PV market have not reached that far on the diffusion curve in 4T-model (figure 10),
giving room for more innovation and PV price-reduction. Moreover, considering that USA, Japan, Germany
and China are some of the nations with the highest PV adoption and production numbers - other nations or
regions, as the Middle East, hides a huge energy adoption potential.
8.1.4. PV technology performance
There is an important distinction to make in the performance of what a PV technology energy produces under
STC, and what the technology provides in reality, under the conditions of clouds, dust, rain, humidity etc.
interrupting the suns light beams. Frederic Krebs, Head of the Department of Energy Conversion and Storage,
and Functional Organic Material at DTU, states; There is two kind of schools; The world records and what
you can do in reality. (DTU, Interview). Figure 12 illustrating the STC achievement (by innovational PV
companies in table 8), which is not the real-world efficiency. However, the records demonstrate an
important innovational process generating an increasing market value-proposition for the adopters. The
area/efficiency variable are adoption barriers, as low-efficiency solar-modules requires a larger amount of
area to produce the same accumulated electricity, which is limited on a rooftop. PV c-Si requires 7-9m
2
area
surface to install 1kW. PV thin-film and PV organic modules requires respectively nearly 2 times and 6-8
times the area to deliver the same amount of energy as mono- and poly-crystalline.
54 | P a g e

The performance/efficiency
improvements tendency is
closely connected to the adopter
price factor, as adopters will
receive more electricity on a
smaller area, meaning that the
same size module will deliver
more kWh and thereby the price
decrease proportionally with the
efficiency rise.
39
An illustration of the kWh production vs the PV system area/m
2
is visualized from a PV
module with 15% efficiency and a PV module with 19% efficiency (figure 28). This clearly illustrates the
importance of the value of rising (and innovating), as more kWh equals more value (money). Efficiency
performance development is moreover a vital economic company element, as todays over-capacity of the
solar market (many suppliers and manufactures) have to sell to a marginal price of the production cost. This
event will in the long-run illuminate which market actors have the best and lowest production-cost, as well
as the best technology available, surviving the bloody PV solar war. Solar-efficiency is the variable that may
turn out to be the important factor as they can turn the increase of efficiency, and produce less panels and
save cost. By increasing the efficiency, a company both lowering the cost and increase the revenue.
(SolVoltaics, Interview).
8.1.5 The PV price and dust problem
Comparing the resent PV prices/watt development between to two largest commercial PV technologies, PV
c-Si (mono and poly crystalline) and PV thin-film (a-si/u-Si), we may visualize that the prices/watt is following
each other. The price/watt gap has changed from USD 0.59 in January 2010 to USD 0.28 in January 2014,
making PV thin-film less economic preferable (figure 29). The adopters value-proposition (cost/benefits) of
the between the two largest PV has changed, as the PV thin-film market share in declining. However, PV thin-
film is still marginally cheaper pr. kWh (table 3), but do requires a larger area to generate the same amount
of energy. Although, the thin-films essential problem of consuming too much area do exists, it may potential
product, when a potential buyer doesnt has a limited area available. The thin-film larger surface area to
produce the same kWh opens for the question of the increasing maintenance and cleaning cost, which will
increase proportionally with the PV covered area. According to Martin Aagesen, Gasp Solar, to plaster a

39
When installing a rooftop PV system on e.g. 6m
2
, the improved efficiency contributes with more kWh, adding more
value and a lower price per m
2
.
0
100
200
300
400
500
1
0
2
0
3
0
4
0
5
0
6
0
7
0
8
0
9
0
1
0
0
1
1
0
1
2
0
1
3
0
1
4
0
1
5
0
1
6
0
1
7
0
1
8
0
1
9
0
2
0
0
2
1
0
K
I
L
O

W
A
T
T

H
O
U
R
PV MODULE COST USD VS. KWH
Efficiency 15% Efficiency 19%
Figure 28 Illustration of PV module value
55 | P a g e

large area with thin-film solar cell will demand maintenance, as there is much glass that needs to be cleaned,
as well as the risk of being sandblasted.(Gasp Solar, Interview).
If the PV modules are not cleaned, the dust-effect in a dessert can make the modules produce 50% less after
six month. Due to the dust-issue, regardless of which PV technology, the PV modules is recommended to be
cleaned in every two weeks. According to Juan F. Gil, Solaria Energia, the problem is resolvable, though they
have some problems with the dust on the modules, but this is easy to fix. (Solaria Energia, Interview). Two
ways possible alternatives to clean the modules; (1) manual cleaning with water or (2) a special made
machine that do not need water (Solaria Energia, Interview). Moreover, maintenance and cleaning periods
may be extended by installing a tilting function (Gasp Solar, Interview). However, the novel PV technology,
PV organic, is actually the cheapest, when measuring the price/watt. However, with an efficiency rate of 2-
4%, this technology do compete directly with the existing commercial PV technologies, as it will consume (6-
8 times) a massive area (DTU, Interview).
8.1.6 PV speed of production
A more general barrier worth mentioning is the current speed of production. Mono- and poly crystalline
production speed is relatively slow and there may be needed an alternative method to escalate the product
speed. There is a fundamental thing wrong by melting something and cut it in small round circles. We have
to find an alternative that can be printed and rolled (DTU, Interview).
40
A new discovery made by the Swedish
company SolVoltaics may provide with a possible solution. The innovative production method (Aerotaxy
TM
)
claims to produce solar nanowires between 100-1000 times faster than standard methods of producing
nanowire arrays, making it more cost efficient (SolVoltaics, Interview).

40
PV organic roll out mechanism takes 3 minute to install 1kilowatt in comparison to PV Si-c 19min.
Figure 29 - Average price of PV c-Si and thin-film (Appendix 7, 3)
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
2009 May 2010 Jan 2010 May 2011 Jan 2011 May 2012 Jan 2012 May 2013 Jan 2013 May 2014 Jan
U
S
D

p
e
r

w
a
t
t
YEAR
Average price of Crystalline and Thin-film 2009 - 2014
Average Crystalline Silicon price Thin-film a-Si/u-Si
56 | P a g e

8.1.7 PV temperature performance influence
Another important barrier is the high-temperature in the dessert regions, reaching up to 50 C (Treehugger,
article).
41
The high-temperature showed to have an important effect on the PV performance with an
average loss in the module efficiency 8% in mono-crystalline, 9% in multi-crystalline, and 5% in thin-film
technologies (appendix 1.2). The respective PV technology efficiency on 20% (mono-crystalline), 19% (poly-
crystalline) and 12% (thin-film):
Mono-crystalline: 8% energy loss of 20% efficiency = 1.6% loss of energy efficiency
20% efficiency 1.6% loss of energy efficiency = 18.4%
Poly-crystalline: 9% energy loss of 19% efficiency = 1.71% loss of energy efficiency
19% efficiency - 1.71% loss of energy efficiency = 17.29%
Thin-film: 5% energy loss of 12 efficiency = 0.6% loss of energy efficiency
12% efficiency - 0.6% loss of energy efficiency = 11.4%
The above calculation illustrates that even though thin-film has a less efficiency loss in the heat (5%)
compered to mono- (8%) and poly-crystalline (9%). Despite the efficiency drop, the crystalline technologies
is still have a remarkable higher efficiency, resulting in a better Kwh energy output. The Spanish PV company,
Solaria Energia, have high-temperature experience, and are engaged in pilot-project Jordan, Libya and Kuwait
and have a climatic camper in our department and have tested it We have 1 megawatt plant in Almeria
in Spain, where the temperature reaches 40 C or more. Dessert area there, and we have monitored the
modules (mono- and polycrystalline) and it works perfect for the dessert.
Efficiency drops may be avoided by installing the plants near the coastline, as temperature decreases approx.
5-10 C. However, another effect-issue of humidity occurs, which is covering for the solar radiation and
thereby the effect (Gasp Solar, Interview).
8.1.8 PV practical ability
The PV solar technology practical ability as a small-scale rooftop PV system or a big-scale field power source
system have been available for a nearly century, but it is not until this decade the adoption rate departure
notable (figure 14). A practical feature triggering this departure may exist in the ability to support the (1)
electrical-grid and at the same time function as an (2) off-grid independent energy resource. The practical
applications plays an important role in the productivity growth boom, as the innovation has to offer a unique
value-proposition.
The enhanced PV solar characteristics, indicates that the clean-energy innovation adds more value than just
being cost-competitive. A reformation of the practicality exist in the PV solar modularity and flexibility,

41
KSA hottest temperature measured was on June 22, 2010, with 52.0C in Jeddah.
57 | P a g e

improving the technology to be a supplementary construction material, also defined as BIPV. BIPV serves as
a practical and applicable energy resource used as; enclosure, shading, waterproofing, thermal insulation,
acoustic insulation, finishing-buildings and lighting (Cern, et al., 2013). Thin-film was previously the primary
used technology for BIPV material, due to its practical abilities of being flexible and transparent. However,
the continuing improvements of both the transparency and architectural design abilities within in dominating
PV technologies, mono- and poly-crystalline, have change the PV market circumstances. Today approx. 80%
of BIPV is made of mono- and polycrystalline and approx. 9% for thin-film.
8.1.9 Build Integrated PV compelling reason
However, there needs to be a compelling reason for the possible adopters to buy the PV innovational
product. The PV mono- and polycrystalline has widely been accepted as the best standard technology in a
cost/benefit review that have matured through a decade of testing and market implementation, covering
the essentials compelling reasons for adopters. However, the use of c-Si as the standard PV material in BIPV
is still too expensive to use as build-material. Saleh Al-khozaim, Energy Glow, say that all construction
companies that he have been in contact with decline to use BIPV, due to the price. Moreover, Ed Hurley from
Spire Solar, think the adoption of BIPV as a material not will happen naturally, but there need to be some
incentives to do it and let it progress (Spire Solar, Interview,) as the diffusion level of BIPV grows very slow,
because the price is higher than the normal PV. (Solaria Energia, Interview). There is still a large cost-barrier
issue for BIPV to considerate for this particular market to grow, although the applicability, practicality and
performance element have seen good improvement recently. Another issue is that some engineers and
architects dont know exactly how to install these modules and need more knowledge and information. It
is a general awareness-problem with engineers, architect and construction people, as these industries still not
know the full potential and possibilities to use BIPV as a product (Solaria Energia, Interview). This awareness-
problem could and should be limited to further open up for at the possibilities of a young BIPV market. This
diffusion of awareness was e.g. witness in Japan with standard rooftop PV and became a huge success for
the general population knowledge of PV as a compelling innovation.
A growing number of making BIPV products applicable and cheaper can be discovered by looking to the future
collaboration between the PV and the construction industries - and a general integration of various products.
It is hence important to reinforce the collaboration effort between these industries in order to develop
innovative and attractive products that makes the technology easy to integrate, install, and making it more
reliable and cost-efficient. New developments of PV technologies furthermore needed to secure and enable
the integration into several materials that make up the skins of buildings today, easy application of PV cells
in conventional materials, which will allow the development of new solutions.
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8.2 The United States of America PV industry insights
The Policy incentive implementation strength depends on the market structure development. In USA, we see
a very decentralized PV industry structure, making a forced governmental subsidy policy implementation
more difficult, as the US is divided in 50 states. The American company Spire Solar is one of the top fifteen
innovational companies state that (In US) there is no Feed-In tariffs, there is no subsidies at all it is all
individual state mandates or town mandates. There have not been an overall solar driven policy by the US
Government. Solar has survived in the US because individual state taken the initiatives to do itThere are 50
different states and even they have provinces and counties that have different rules and regulation. All the
installation are regional, mainly because the rules and regulation are different from state to state and unless
you are a big organization is will be difficult to know with state has different rules and regulation.(Spire Solar,
Interview). The level of decentralization makes the adoption less attractable, when the PV has not reached
grid-parity. The fragmented nature of the US PV industry does that companies dont have the incentive to
capture knowledge of the whole PV value chain. The US PV structure is divided in singular each step, which
do have an influence on the manufacturing reduction.
Comparing the degree of top fifteen PV production companies (table 6, appendix 3.1), with the fifteen
innovational companies (table 7, appendix 3.2), the US have had two top PV production ten in the period
between 2008 2014 (First Solar and Solartech). However, First Solar is the technology manufacturing leader
within in thin-film, and not the dominating PV c-Si. The US does, however, have eight companies (Solar
Junction, Spire Solar, Boing SpectroLab, NREL, Amonix, GE Global, First Solar and Konarka Technologies)
within the fifteen innovational companies.
This is remarkable and a clear sign of the American ability to innovate. Ed Hurley, commenting that because
China making PV cheaper than US, manufactories would be difficult in US. For us in the US we would properly
do something R&D and some small scale of production. Despite that US does not have an overall demanding
PV market, they do survive. A good example of this is Spire Solar business-model of selling turn-key
systems. Spire Solar are selling the developed knowledge and technology to other companies or nations that
may require the comprehension of produce solar energy. Spire Solar does furthermore sell the developed
technology to other markets, where the adoption-rate is healthy or in nation with policy incentives
implemented. Despite of not receiving governmental support, the US companies may be determined as some
of the PV technologies most innovative companies.
The US government implementation of NEM system in 43 states (2005-2013) had an impact on domestic
adoption. However, the US governments new SunShot program (2010-2020), offering subsidy to research-
based purposes will keep the innovational progress, as the program is bridging the PV industry together
with research and universities. The US government clearly doing an effort to find a new energy solutions by
59 | P a g e

generating a national incentive to innovate within the PV technology which may lead to improved efficiency
and/or new emerging technologies.
8.3 The Japanese PV industry insights
The Japanese PV industry has been a part of the solar adventure since the very beginning and has through
the past decades standardized the PV technology, which proved to be an important trigger to for the global
PV market expansion. An interesting note is that many successful leading Japanese manufacturing companies
are not only connected to the PV industry, but are merely actually connected to other branches such as the
Japanese Kyocera, Sharp, Mitsubishi Electric, Sanyo Electric, which are produce television, cars etc..
Furthermore, the Japanese PV companies did joint-ventures within different branches, as e.g. Kawasaki
Heavy Industries tied up with Eva Green Solar. The joint-venture and collaboration establish a common
sharing of knowledge and risk, to the benefits of innovational effect. Moreover, the Japanese PV companies
cooperation within other sectors such as the building material and roof material industry, construction
industry and the housing industry led to a greater understanding of how to nurture the customers
preferences and demands. This mix between industries served as a key component for market growth, and
more importantly led to the comparative synergetic effect of the PV cost-reduction and innovative processes.
However, the Japanese history of even is a clear evidence of what will happen if subsidies is redrawn, before
the market has reached a healthy self-sustainable adoption level (figure 17). In 2005, the Japanese
government presumed that the PV market would run without support, but instead it ultimately stall.
In 2008 Japan had three companies, Sharp, Kyocera and Sanyo Electric in the top 10 of PV suppliers, indicating
that although that the domestic market may not flourish, large companies (as witness in the US) may do fine
by exporting PV modules to other markets were PV energy is subsidized or grid-parity has been reached. In
2008, the government implemented a new power purchase program and a new FIT Subsidy program in 2009,
that re-stated the annually domestic installation of 225MW in 2008 to 991MW in 2010. The Japanese PV
manufactories adapted and developed PV products to fit the specific market segments, quick and flexible.
The rapid market growth in Japan due to new FIT for 2009, have generated a certain amount of market
maturity and know-how, that have influence the manufacturing exceeding an annual installation of 1GW in
2011 and ultimately the adopting rate, as the FIT assisting primary the domestic market by enhancing
residential and large-size customers incentives. These phenomena are backing the claim that that a long-
term incentive policy establish a PV market adoption progression. As illustrated in 4T-model, the Japanese
PV adoption and development stage is assess to be between the departure and acceleration stage (closer
to the acceleration).
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8.4 The German and Chinese PV industry insight
The German and Chinese PV industries are the two largest manufacturing nations and therefore a
comparative PV industry insight is set to point out the essential similarities and differences. Both nations are
main leaders of todays commercial PV crystalline market, with a successful and large-scale PV production,
aiming towards a low policy-budget, and sustainable power supply as well as steadily increasing the security
of energy supply. It is essential to understand the industry structure, including the actors within the PV
production process, and equipment suppliers, operate to be able to assess incentives and opportunities to
pursue innovative activities. Technological barriers to entry are relatively low in downstream segments,
which have made possible the strong presence of Chinese firms in these segments. The cell production
technology is easily accessible because, contrary to upstream segments, turnkey production lines can be
bought and run without much prior experience in manufacturing cells. The level of concentration and vertical
integration within the PV downstream (manufacturing industry, assembling and distribution) is similar in
both countries with distinctive leading companies, as the German SolarWorld, Conergy and Sovello - and the
Chinese Yingli Solar, Trina Solar and JA Solar. Both nations have dedicated equipment suppliers and have
mature with PV technology industry, as well as companies that has expanded their activities and brought
expertise from other industries and comprehend specific expertise, as well as successful and supportive
policies that sustain a forward ongoing PV development. Moreover, both nations contain a mix of companies
that vertically integrates across the PV production value chain, as well as companies that specializes in
particular value chain segment. However, the PV downstream technology comprehension is less technical
intensive and is labor-intensive, which gives Chinese companies a global competitive advantage.
In contrast, the upstream PV value chain (silicon purification) requires advanced technologies and specific
company capabilities to control the chemical reactions, in order to be able to produce silicon at a competitive
price. (Glachant, et al., 2010; Grau, et al., 2011). China has more PV upstream companies then Germany
(figure 20 and 22), making it more price competitive as well as forcing the technological improvement and
competitiveness at a high level. Earlier in 2009, China did not contain the upstream intense-technology
comprehension, but depended on importing equipment from Germany. However, Chinese companies do
comprehend and control this part of the PV value chain today, which maybe one of the key reasons for the
extreme global price-reduction between 2011-2012. The silicon and wafer production in the upstream value
chain is the most important technological capability to master in wanting to improve PV efficiency and
quality. In 2006-2007, China accounted for 37% of the silicon patent, which illustrates the clear effort and
determination to comprehend this high-intensive technical process.
Chinas PV may have optimized and perfected this stage of the value chain making them market competitive
leaders. Saleh Al-Khozaim, EnergyGlow, commented that they have tested and compared many of the
61 | P a g e

German and Chinese modules, and explored that Chinese module sometimes was 5% more efficient
(EnergyGlow, Interview). The Danish CEO Karsten Nielsen, GreenGo Energy, supports this argument by
commenting that the Chinese suppliers and manufactures as Yingli Solar, Trina Solar, Jinko Solar and
Canadian Solar contain the leading technology within mono and poly-crystalline, and that the German only
contain about 3% of the global PV component market (GreenGo Energy, Interview). This indicates that Chinas
PV value chain no-longer depends of German technology. China created economic of scale and exploited the
PV industrys learning-by-doing through many years of global-export, which ultimately led to technology
improvement and perfection, being completely competitive with the German crystalline technology. China
has a remarkable ability to adapt and standardize incremental innovation made by other nations. Ali Ghaouti
from German company SolarWorld states that Innovation it was always Germany: Innovation it was always
Germany. The machinery is innovated in Germany, and after two or three years the products are
manufactured in China. Germany was the first to give 25years linier warranty and then China did the same.
Germany introduces the six-inch cell and China did the same. (SolarWorld, Interview) Evidence of Chinas
impressive ability to learn and adapt technology can be seen in the fact that they account for 9 out the 15
largest PV manufacturing companies in 2012 (table 6, appendix 3.1).
Chinas particular advantage relies in generating a great cost reduction across the PV value chain, which have
made the country able to sell PV modules between USD 0.30 - 0.50/watt less than other nations in the period,
2009 2014. As witness in figure 30, China have had significantly lower PV price/watt then Germany and
Japan, making the Chinese companies the most competitive, resulting in the large PV market share - and 9
out of 15 top global PV manufactures. However, the figure 30 do illustrates the current (Jan 2014) price/watt
difference to be marginally, USD 0.16/watt, which may be an evidence of the current Chinese government
subsidy-cut to PV manufactures and that Chinese PV companies may not sustain the price-level without
government support. The resent turn-of event is then likely to have influence on the future market global PV
industry leaders and the future globe price.
8.5 Evaluation of the PV Industry achievements
The deployment and investment support is as witness implemented to indirectly motivate the technology
improvements. R&D on the other hand is an effective and efficient supportive governmental tool with a
direct intention to technology development. R&D support in terms of universities explores new options and
technologies, which the commercial sector may not discover, since they typically are focusing on technologies
close to market stage. Technology improvements and cost reductions results from the PV company actors to
explore improvement of opportunities and generating new alternatives as PV nanowires and organic in the
PV market.
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However, the functioning of the PV structure depends of the individual nation and the integrated knowledge
and technology the key-actors may contribute with. To explore cost-reduction, clear-target and long-term
deployment policies is essential in the reinforcement of dynamics within innovation, manufacturing, and
market. Scaling up the market can be an effective approach in the development of the manufacturing. As
stated, manufacturing activities are a vital for the source of innovation through learning-by-doing and
learning-by-searching. Moreover, a long-term and expanding market also incentivizes the commercialization
process as a certain standardization process may occur over time, as clear example in USA, Japan, Germany
and China. However, the PV manufacturer competitiveness may also rely on internal cost-reductions through
innovation. Thereby it is possible for nations to use innovation to anchor manufacturing activities, and
reinforcing the dynamics between innovation leadership and manufacturing leadership.
The next era of PV deployment and sustainable PV industry will rely increasingly on an innovation market
focus. Not surprisingly, therefore, the general direction is to fund more R&D activities and start more
partnerships with research and association (SolarWorld, Interview). Once the PV technology is largely cost-
competitive with conventional electricity of an innovation-driven stage, the PV industry can self-expand
without major policy interventions under the reinforcing dynamics among cost reduction, market growth,
and economies of scale. Spending budgets of billions of dollars allocated in deployment incentives with the
intension to support the PV market. These demand-pull policies intents to create an agile and energetic PV
industry through market-driven innovation. The PV value chain actors are supposed to thrive with the
possibility of re-investing their profits into R&D and new innovations that may further reduce PV cost. The
subsidy programs in the respective nations have without doubt made PV solar energy an attractive
Figure 30 - Crystalline PV module price in Japan, Germany and China; 2009 - 2014 (appendix 7.1)
3,61
2,8
2,67
2,36
2,16
1,47
1,32
1,07 1,06 0,95
3,47
2,63
2,65
2,25
2,05
1,45
1,32
1,15
1,11
0,96
2,29
2,14
2,16
2,03
1,72
1,09
0,95
0,73 0,74
0,8
3,12
2,52
2,49
2,21
1,98
1,34
1,19
0,98 0,97
0,9
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
4
2009 May 2010 Jan 2010 May 2011 Jan 2011 May 2012 Jan 2012 May 2013 Jan 2013 May 2014 Jan
U
S
D

p
e
r

W
A
T
T
YEAR
Crystalline PV module price in Japan, Germany and China
Germany PV Price Japan PV Price China PV Price Average PV price
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alternative to conventional energy resources. Although the industry is witnessing a growing demand for solar,
there have been a big shake-out the last couple of years. Although, the big twenty (PV companies) have a
very good chance to stay in the industry. (SolVoltaics, Interview).
8.5.1 The consequence of the overcrowded market
The heavy international subsidy programs intended to keep a dynamic innovational PV may on the other side
generate a negative effect, as the current witness overcrowded market. The recent overcapacity in PV
module production and the resulting oversupply have caused PV modules being sold at unsustainably low
prices, pressuring many major PV manufacturers financially in the recent two years. Furthermore, the current
market overcapacity creates a negative investor investment, resulting in less capital-intensive investment in
expanding production. Due to the opportunities to scale up production, new entering PV companies with
innovative technologies that could contribute are forced to compete with major manufacturers, with the
consequence of smaller PV manufacturers filling for bankrupt or being acquired. The overcrowded PV market
creates an unbalance and dysfunctional for the generation of innovative. Moreover, the overcrowded market
may create adopter confusion and uncertainty, due to the lack of stability and repeating bankruptcy pattern
within the PV industry. Buying a product from PV companies that might go bankrupt, send a terrible signal to
adopters and more importantly, open for a deep concern of not have anywhere to complain if the PV system
do not work properly as guaranteed.
The demand-pull policy that is supposed to generate cost-reduction so the governments one day may stop
funding, is currently working against the intended purpose. The key to restore the incentives for innovation,
the market oversupply needs to be resolved promptly. The German and Chinese government have officially
stated to cut incentives to diminish PV market actors. However, this elimination of PV actors in the respective
nations will include that only the PV companies with an efficient PV value chain, production-cost and
innovation capabilities may not be able to compete. The next era of PV will consist of the healthy and
innovational companies. Moreover, this current turn-of-event could also imply that PV price may rise in the
near future.
8.5.2 The PV paradox
A possible solution could be to restructure policy towards more support for the innovative companies and
R&D efforts. With this in mind, we find ourselves in an adoption-paradox. As previous policy experience
evidently are telling us, that a too generous demand-pull policy may first lead to massive cost-reduction,
ultimately rising the adoption rate in a somewhat unhealthy market direction. However, incentive in form of
FIT or NEM are required for a PV market to grown, as a way to stimulate scale-of-production and learning-
by-doing within the PV value chain, as well as create the innovative company spirit. A valuable comment by
Juan G. Gil, Solaria Energia is that if the energy price is very cheap it is impossible to start a sustainable
64 | P a g e

industry without subsidies. A nation need to create a stabile program, and dont start with very high incentives
that the government can not maintain, but instead you have to start then very carefully. (Solaria Energia,
Interview). Investors are searching for guidance on the future levels of targeted support in order to plan and
justify investments, which may be done though a stable and anticipated deployment support.
8.6 Alternative and new supplementing adoption approaches
A supplement to FIX and NET is to lower the capital investment, and reduce the payback-period and make
the PV systems a more reachable energy resource by reduce the initial cost. This will hence lower the
economic barrier to the early and late majority adopter segment.
8.6.1 SolarCity approach
An alternative method to reaching the valuable mass-segment of early and late majorities, avoiding the initial
cost, is the FIT and the payback approaches introduced by the Californian company, SolarCity. SolarCity has
developed an investment capital fond that pays for the initial capital cost. SolarCitys financial and business
model eliminates the uncertainty issues by paying for the initial cost of the PV system, as well as the design,
install and maintenance of the PV system. The only thing that the PV adopters is paying for is the agreed PV
energy consumption rate. Due to the global PV module price-reduction between 2008-2014, the current PV
energy price in California has reached USD 13/kWh. And when calculating the financial California-state
subsidy, the PV energy is lower than conventional utility price at approx. USD 0.13/kWh.
8.6.2 The Purchasing Power Agreement
The Purchasing Power Agreement (PPA) contains a similar approach, making PV energy a larger part of the
grid produce energy (see appendix 2, PPA). However, in the PPA model the main collaboration is not between
a company and the residential consumer, but instead between the company and government. The company
is producing PV energy for the government grid at an agreed kWh price, normally at a fixed rate for approx.
20 years. This model is fairly new and interesting for nations, which initially choose to outsource large PV
systems to foreign companies. The PPA and FIT may initially have similar features, but in the PPA you can
achieve some conditions which are fixed in the contract, where in FIT system the condition is fixed before
the adopter buy.
42

The government makes offers for domestic, foreign or joint-ventures that comprehend the capabilities to
keep the PV system running, large or small, throughout the agreed period. However, a nation is not energy
independent, as it is relying on foreign production. Although, to avoid this, a nation may do as China did in
the early 2009 and force a joint-venture between (experienced) foreign companies and domestic

42
In an skype correspondence with Juan F. Gil (12 of march 2014) In the PPA you can achieve some conditions which
are fixed in the contract
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(inexperienced) companies, ultimately leading to a slow and steady technology domestic diffusion. This
model is highly valuable in scenarios where the conventional electricity price is low.
8.7 The PV companies of the next era
A qualitative prediction of who is going to be the next future PV companies is highly interesting, as it may
underline some important criteria for the PV direction. In 1988, the US, Japanese and German companies
where all represented among the top-ten manufacturing PV companies (figure 25). None among the top ten
where Chinese. Today, Chinese companies represent 9 out of 15, which is a clear indication of Chinese
companies ability to standardize, make PV cost reduction across the PV value chain, making ultra-cheap PV
module. The dominating standard PV modules technology is c-Si, which is mainly dominated by Chinese
companies. However, comparing the largest PV actors with the innovational companies, a certain pattern
uncovers, that the Chinese PV industry do not value the importance of moving the innovational efficiency
boundaries, but merely standardize the PV technology to a level. This is indeed a valuable contribution to the
global PV adopter segment market (although not for PV companies), and has made PV technology grid-parity
in 19 markets, reaching the mass-market segment adopters.
According to Ali Ghaouti, SolarWorld, there will be some polarization in the future PV market, leading to a
less-Chinese domination. As price being the most influential element for adoption, the difference between
the Japanese, German and Chinese has been reduced from to
the lowest witness in the five-year timeframe at figure 30. If
this scenario will continue, a polarization is likely to occur in
the global PV market. The future generation of PV companies
is likely to change from Chinese standardization companies to
more innovational national companies.
A qualified presumption is that the innovational US PV
industry will begin flourish in the next generation, in line with the US government SunShot effort to support
R&D and the collaboration between research facilities, universities and companies. Furthermore, the
Japanese PV industry is likely to regain moment, with the new domestic FIT incentives at 0.41kWh and 30%
subsidy grant for the commercial sector. Moreover, both Germany and Japan PV companies will also regain
market shares, as both nations have a deeply matured and innovational PV infrastructure. The Chinese PV
companies will, if not improving the R&D effort, lose manufacturing momentum, ultimately leading to a more
diversified global PV manufacturing industry.
USA, Japan
and Germany
China
Figure 31 - PV market future forecast momentum
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8.8 Expanding the PV value chain with PV recycling

Figure 32 - The PV value chain extra link of PV Recycling
If the PV solar industry reach the predicted IEA forecast of 3000GW installation by 2050, many PV systems
will hit the technology graveyard the coming decades, meaning that a recycle step is necessary. There are
three main reason to recycle; (1) to reuse the scarcity of resources, (2) it make economic sense to reuse the
material for PV modules, and (3) PV energy will be the an even more environmental renewable resource.
An example of a scarce resource is the semiconductor material Cadmium-Telluride used to make thin-film
solar cells (SolVoltaics, Interview). The US thin-film world leading company, First Solar, use Cadmium-
Telluride as a semiconducting material, but only have enough to produce approx. 8 gigawatt (DTU,
Interview). However, the semiconductor material Gallium-Arsenide is not currently in hazard of scarcity yet,
as there is approx. four times of much gallium-arsenide as the PV industry needs is just too expensive to
harvest (SolVoltaics, Interview). For this reason it would make economic sense focus on recycle these
semiconducting materials, which may also less expensive the harvesting process. The best PV recycling
companies are able to recycle up to 85% of the PV module (SolarWorld, Interview). The PV recycling industry
is very young and is continuously developing new methods to make it more efficient. Much of the material
used in the PV module consists of aluminum, which is very easy to remove and reuse. However, due to the
large amount of aluminum use in the PV modules, Polar Wood is in the experimentation phase. Polar Wood
is more environmental friendly (than aluminum) with a life-time of 30 years, that may be recycled by mother
nature (GreenGo Energy, Interview).
8.9 National leaps for PV technology and knowledge implementation

Figure 33 - National PV leaps
From previous examined information, the thesis intent to develop a step-by-step model of how to kick-start
a national PV industry, beginning from the early exploration phase of a innovation diffusing.
The first step in a national PV solar energy adventure is to implement a pilot PV projects to establish a
general understanding of the PV technology under the environmental circumstances. Moreover, R&B labs
and support is hence valuable for the PV industry, which usually tend to prevail during the first innovation
stage. R&D is commonly a technology-push policy that induce technology innovation and progress. The
Silicon Wafer
Cell or thin-
film
Module
PV
Manufactor
Distributor Installer Adopter
PV
Recycling
Initiate
Pilot PV
projects and
R&D
Turn-key
operation
(Downstream)
Development
industry
cluster-areas
Join-venture
and partneship
in the PV
industry
Collaboration
within various
industries
Knowledge
intensive
integration
(Upstream)
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Chinese PV industry is dominating the global PV market completely, being the most cost/benefit rational PV
product to buy. However, continuing to install PV plant with foreign PV technology will merely provide with
the element of watt installation that produce a certain quantity of annual kWh. The second step for the desire
of being (PV solar) energy independent (as KSA), a nation could take advantage of the concept, turnkey-
operation, which is provided by e.g. Spire Solar or Solaria Energia. An essential point is that the founding PV
nations as USA, Japan and Germany did not make use of turnkey-operations, as the PV technology had to
matured and standardized (Spire Solar, Interview). Today, the basic PV technology and knowledge can be
achieved by buying the knowledge assets from turnkey-operation companies, which is valuable to attain the
required production capabilities. A turnkey-operation is sharing knowledge PV capabilities across the
downstream of the PV value chain, providing a with a PV knowledge capital as a fundament for further steps
of the PV technology. Ed Hurley at Spire Solar, expressed that their turnkey operation educates and train
companies cross the US boarders and is providing manufacturing in KSA (and others nations), so they can
build the module locally instead of importing them from Spain, China or Taiwan. (Spire Solar, interview 2)
Turnkey operation companies is a valuable leap to transfer the less knowledge intensive part of the PV value
chain. The comprehension of the basic equipment manufacturing labs is a necessity for future PV
development. A future innovation process do depend the basic capabilities. Moreover, the process of
building modules is pretty similar no matter whos equipment you use, as it is a simple process... the small 2
megawatt lines is three or four week weeks of training, the bigger ones we are present up to 3 months.(Spire
Solar, Interview). The knowledge and technology transfer is a process of how to use the equipment, how to
build modules, what to look at in term of quality step. The training varies, as some are good at it at pick up
very quickly and some dont. Even if they are not trained in solar, but instead in electronic and
semiconductors, the process of transfer is straight forward. (Spire Solar, Interview).
The third step would then naturally be to store the knowledge in certain areas, as cluster-areas. Develop PV
industry technology cluster-areas have shown valuable to induce the synergy knowledge development
effects. The Government could initiate cluster solar programs, where they rent a particular land, building
and electricity, to a beneficial prices for solar companies. (Solaria Energia, Interview). By developing certain
area-specific incentives, as e.g. a 30% grant or reduced-interest loans (as Germany did), this will induce a
united PV industry collaboration, as witness in Germany. Standardized and innovative companies will (in the
cluster) benefit by sharing the up-to-date knowledge, creating a holistic PV industry, with the abilities of
innovating and improve methods and processes. Moreover, it will hence generate a healthy competition
among the industry, as companies constantly will be on the toes. Taking advantage of the cluster effect
will also benefit the later integration of various industries (in step five).
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As the knowledge cluster-bank is rooted in as a national asset, a fourth step would be to incentivize
partnership, joint-ventures and FDI, which will generate a knowledge-flow, directly into the domestic PV
industry. The boost of knowledge will mature the interdisciplinary process of; PV industry, PV technology and
the PV adoption and hence benefit with to the price, performance, practicality and applicability by growing
PV technology incremental innovations, as witness in all four nations. However, China is strong example of
transferring foreign knowledge to an immature PV industry, with a great success. The transfer of PV
knowledge-capabilities was motivated (or forced) through foreign collaboration with domestic Chinese
Companies, in a common joint-venture. A transnational collaboration will do that a foreign company will be
in a better position if they partner up with a local company. The success depends very much on choosing the
correct partner, because that will save you a lot of heading and mitigate risk and higher your national trust.
(Royal Danish Embassy, Interview). There is a common interest in collaborating from both a foreign and a
domestic company, as it will reduce uncertainty and moreover enhance both partner possibility for market
success.
The PV national industry is prepared for the fifth step integrating unrelated sectors to share with new
knowledge-input for the benefits of new incremental innovative development. The fifth step may inserted
after the third step it will moreover make perfect sense to combination these steps, as collaboration and
partner fusion (and merging or even acquisitioning), will go hand in hand. The Japanese have illustrated this
phenomenon, and integrated the PV industry with sectors such as the building material and roof material
industry, construction industry and the housing industry. Evidently, this led to an enhanced perception of
how to nurture the adopters preferences and demands, and as served as a key element for comparative
synergetic effect, PV cost-reductions and innovational processes, and ultimately market growth.
The sixth step may serve as a natural leap for a nation to comprehend the whole PV value chain, and hence
be 100% independent of external nationalities export of supplies. Moreover, the comprehension of the
knowledge-intensive part of the value chain will provide with the advantage of developing a cost-efficient
PV industry, due to the holistic option of streamlining the PV value chain. This phenomenon in reality may be
witness in the Chinese PV industry as being a late-entrance to the PV global market, Chinas domestic
market actions is an evidence that through extensive investment in the PV manufacturing capabilities, a
comprehension of the whole PV value chain is possible. The Chinese focus on patents in 2006 2007 was a
clear indication of the search to comprehend the knowledge intensive upstream part, which in 2009 showed
its pay-off, as Chinese companies conquer the world dominance up to present time.
It is hence important to clarify that the adoption of the individual PV value chain steps, not necessary has to
occur in a chronological order, but may be integrated in a random order. This is e.g. witness with REC Group,
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as they perfected the knowledge-intense upstream part, and first later adopted the downstream part of the
PV value chain to generate a streamline production cost-efficient manufacturing chain.
9.0 An adopter focused solution
Germany have had a long strong long-term FIT do a make a domestic market grow, generating a domestic
installation of approx. 35GW in 2013, which is more than USA, Japan and China have installed combined.
China have on the other hand only recently been doing domestic policy for the benefit of the Chinese
adopters. One of the essential benefits of the German FIT is that they are exclusively (all kWh) fed into the
grid, creating a large incentive for the adopters, which greatly expands the market from those who buys PV
energy out of reasons of environmental consciousness (visionaries) to those interested in investment
possibilities (early and late majority).
9.0.1 Price-reduction influence
The growing PV adoption evidently leads to a price-reduction, or visa-versa. Price-reduction within the PV
value chain is considered to be the most sensitive key to adoption. Price matters both for large-scale
producers as well as for Small & Medium size companies as well as residential adopters. Saleh Al-Khozaim,
Energy Glow, specifies that in terms of sale, we use mostly Chinese products. European and especially
German products are high quality, but also higher price and price is very important to our customers. Clearly,
quality and efficiency do have a certain significance for customers, but ultimately the product price is
conceived as the most important factor. However, the price per watt and payback time of a PV system was
still considerably higher than what the early and late majority market adopters where willing to pay.
One of the main barriers for the adoption of PV systems is the relatively large investment capital costs for
residential users. Although having an expected lifetime of approx. 2030 years, the PV system have a payback
period on approx. 6-7 years. Spire solar Vice President, Ed Hurley, believes that if you cant show a payback
within three years, people are not interested. If the payback is within a year, everybody will do it - two years
70% will do it - three years 30% will do it. But beyond three years, people are not interested and do not want
to take that risk. And until solar energy get within 2-3 years, it will still be driven by subsidies.. 6-7 years
payback period is a long time. Though people that buy may be environmentalist, technologist or engineers
types, but the average homeowner and the average business 7 years is to long time, unless he or she have
some great incentives. By integrating the FIT in the PV business-model the adopters have a higher incentive
to by PV system, as they receive a better price that will shorten the payback of the investment.
Moreover, an vital element to simplify the grid-connection and Making it easier for people that do want
solar and be able to connect to the Grid, and do not have to go through the hassel and put up with the local
utiliy company which can be time consuming (Spire Solar, interview). PV system a small utility producing
system, and the codification of the knowledge barrier need to be very simple for the future adopter to shift
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from the easy and convenient utility (dependent) contact to owning your own self-producing utility
company (independent).
9.0.2 PV system awareness and knowledge diffusion
The awareness and information diffusion to reach the adoption segment is a high barrier. The Saudi PV
company Energy Glow is approaching this barrier by offering and distributing small PV system to a very low
budget price of approx. USD 40 270 (150 1000Rials). Salah Al-Khozaim from Energy Glow states, we sell
solar items for 150Rials to try to educate people about solar I KSA and have sold many of small system to
camping area to dessert use. We are lowering the price so much that there is no uncertainty or risk
attached.(Energy Glow, Interview). This educational approach of the public could be scaled-up to a
governmental level in various nations to enhance the general knowledge of possible adopters.
Large national level awareness events or local-city event would lower the uncertainty barrier to early and
late majority adopters. Moreover, the events could educate in; how to install and grid-connect a PV system,
what particular national renewable policy might benefit to the value perception, which producers is
preferable. When trying to captured overview of which PV companies and modules is more preferable than
others can best is described as a jungle. To attract the early and late majority segment, the PV market should
contain a more transparent product overview that future adopters may compare.
9.0.3 National visual branding
As described, early adopters tend to be more vigorous, visionary and risk-takers and crossing the chasm -
to the early and late majority in the use and visibility of PV in the construction business may improve the
reliability of the PV technology. Large brands as e.g. IKEA, McDonald or Google have visible constructions
that would function as an extension of the construction business for PV industry to eliminate the uncertainty
that lies with pragmatist. Evidently, the combination of company visibility and recent improvements may
build a more reliable and trustworthy PV solar technology in a mainstream-view, by eliminating the
uncertainty aspect.
9.1 Forecast scenario
Presuming the adoption-level of the PV installation from 2003 2013 will to continue to grow at the same
pace, the world will witness a huge annual and accumulated growth pattern in the decades to come. If, and
only if, the demand and adoption continuous to develop with this pace, we will witness a global installation
of approx. 490GW in 2020, 1342GW in 2030, 2603GW 2040 and 4272GW 2050. However, IEA predicts
3000GW (4.500TWh) of cumulative installed PV capacity by 2050 (IEA, 2010). Many events may naturally halt
or reduce the current pace, although the PV technology does seem to be go heading towards a prosperous
period. Valuable insight can be gleaned from analyzing the future effects of the price-reduction, as this have
witness to will influence the adoption-rate.
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Will the price-reduction continue to dive
(making PV technology even more cost
competitive), will it stabilize from the
current price-level or will the price/watt
even incline? This forecast is highly
interesting for the national policy
incentive consideration, as it could have
impact on the future adoption-rate, and
further avoid an uncontrolled adoption-
rate (as explained later).
Due to the PV price-reduction, the PV market has witnessed an adoption-rate that may in the future be
running be its own (without incentives in some nations). The German and Chinese governments have both
officially stated a future decrease the of the incentives level. This is a clear statement that solar industry can
compete on its own and that subsidies is not necessary as a pull demanding tool in nations where grid-parity
has been reached, which is also an indication that the adoption will happen naturally in the future (Spire
Solar, Solaria Energia, SolarWorld; Interview). However, in spite of flourishing global PV market, with an
annual increase between 40-80% the last decade, market actors is still going bankrupt. In March 2013 the
world leading PV manufacturer, the Chinese company Suntech filed for bankruptcy. Other Chinese top PV
manufacture may have follow Suntech in the grave, if not been granted billion dollar loans from the Chinese
government Yingli Green Energy (USD 5.3 billion), JA Solar (USD 4.4 billion) and Solarfun (USD 1.9 billion).
This indicates a serious lack of healthy-drive from the Chinese industry, and as the Chinese PV manufactures
are presumed to have a vital influence to the global price-reduction (not to confused with efficient innovative
PV cost reduction), the Chinese government subsidy-cut of PV manufacturing incentives, I see a certain stop
leveling in the price-slope in the nearest future. The market development is a strong indication that global
PV industry is too crowded, which has a negative impact for the future innovation, as companies revenue is
very low or non-existing, making less room for company investment in R&D. The current PV price level is
marginally over the production-cost, meaning that only the strongest and innovating companies, with the
best cost-production function may survive. Especially, the innovating and developing parameter is an
important capability to survive, especially when subsidies are downscaled. When Germany decreases the
deployment subsidies (FIT and NEM) and China are decreasing the Investment manufacturing support, this
may first of all have a devastating consequence for the inefficient companies, as this will hence lead to more
PV industry bankruptcy (clearing the market for a the healthy companies). This showing us who have the
Figure 34 - Illustration the potential global installation; 2003 2050 (Appendix 7,
4)
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lowest production-cost. The one (company) who can not match the global market prices will file for
bankruptcy and the healthy companies is left on the market (SolVoltaics, Interview). The down-grading of
the subsidies may initially keep the PV prices steady for a while or even increase them, as the new market
circumstances has to be adapted. This may also imply that the market may not push the price-barrier further
down than it already is. However, futurewise the healthy PV companies will survive and flourish, which will
enhance the level of the internal company R&B budget (SolVoltaics, Interview). The key to an adoption
increase is through innovation, by increasing the PV efficiency and finding new technologies to support PV
energy as a resource (SolarWorld, Interview). However, in nations where the electricity price is relatively low
(as in KSA), the PV technology still will rely on policy incentives for adopters to buy and install.
This turn-of-event may do that when the unbalance over-capacity global PV market has stabilized to a healthy
number (which will happen naturally), the remaining PV companies with cost-efficient production-chain will
survive and compete at the current PV price-level. As especially China had a dominant role in pressuring the
sell-prices to only marginally over the production-price, the redraw of PV manufacturing incentives will do
that only the Chinese or Germany PV companies with a global competitive cost-efficient production chain
will flourish in the future PV market.
This market-event will have an immediate PV price-effect. The resembling between national domestic
production PV c-Si prices (figure 30) illustrates this ongoing change in the PV price/watt in the Chinese
market, which has even raised in from May 2013 to Jan 2014 - and have minimized the price difference to
approx. USD 0.16/watt. The effect is indicating that PV prices will level-out, at least for a temporary period.
Interview participants concurred with this statement, and some even suggest a minimal raise in the nearest
future (SolarWorld, Interview). The strong global demand are pulling the argument of a leveling PV price in
Figure 35 - Three possible PV forecast scenarios; 2014 - 2020
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
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3,5
2009
May
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Jan
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Three possible PV forecast scenarious, 2014 - 2020
Decline PV price Level-out Incline PV price
73 | P a g e

the other direction. Forecasts, supported by Deutsche Bank, are implying that prices will decline even more.
The bank believes that solar energy is likely to witness a transition from subsidized to sustainable in 2014-
2015, meaning that prices-reduction (Solarfeeds, article). The thesis do not find this scenario likely to occur,
but do support a decline in PV price possible after 3-4 years. That the yellow-line in figure 35 could shift to
the red-line when the unbalance over-crowded PV market has stabilized to a healthy number of market
actors (which will happen naturally). The surviving PV companies will be those with the best cost-efficient PV
value chain and an innovative drive. Moreover, the US SunShot extensive R&D focus and collaboration focus
in combination with Japans new high PV market and adopter incentive may influence the innovation process,
leading to more compelling reason to buy in improving price, performance, practicability and applicability.
The US SunShot program amazingly goal of racing 302GW in 2030 (almost three times the world current
installation) is indicating a potential revolution in PV technology and market. The US companies do contain
the innovative capabilities to enhance PV efficiency, but due to the fragmented PV value chain lack the
abilities to manufacture the PV production step efficiently, which is what the SunShot program aim to
minimize (appendix 2.1). Moreover, the Japanese recent impetuous PV activities in new adoption
deployment support, in also a strong argument for future PV innovation and PV prosperity, leading to more
cost-efficient manufacturing reduction. The FIT on delivering twice the current price (USD 0.41/kWh) is
already generating high domestic installation, which has lowered the financial barrier to the pragmatic (and
maybe the conservative adopter. If the high FIT adopter incentives is continued in the respective nations
(which indications are pointing towards, as all nations have leveled the PV capacity for the years to come
(table 4). As PV technology is still not 100% cost-competitive in all nations (especially not in KSA), PV cost-
reductions is necessary and anticipated through innovation, economies of scale and learning by doing. The
policy incentives have shown to have a vital influence for the technology development, industry maturity and
for letting PV move to the mass-market adoption segment.
Summery remark
This chapter (4) processed a thorough analysis of the PV technology, PV industry and adoption segments,
and the effects of the temporary policy incentive. The witness phenomena in general have shown that
political incentives triggers the triangulation circulation between PV technology, PV industry and adoption
segments, amounting in PV price-reduction (concluded in chapter 5). The analysis provided with an
explanation of how a nation may investment in PV technology and knowledge that in time will require less
economic policy incentives, building a domestic sufficient sustainable energy development market for
further needs. This next chapter (5) is, with the elaboration of the four previous chapters prepared to make
an overall conclusion, including valuable suggestions and recommendations for the KSA to reach its PV 2032
goal.
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10. Conclusion The 8 proposals and recommendations
Try not to become a man of success but rather try to become a man of
value. - Albert Einstein
43

Chapter 5 serves as the concluding and contribution chapter that will extract the significant and valuable
insights from the analysis. The conclusion will consist of 8 proposals and recommendations that will be an
answerer to the RQ and sub-questions. They will serve as a contribution to the KSA solar energy development.
The conclusion will be performed within the interrelated concepts in the 4T-model.
The thesis may additionally be used as a theoretically framework that evaluates the effects of policy incentive
implementation, kick-starting any nations technology innovation within the dynamic maturing circulation
between technology, industry and adoption segment. The 8 proposals and recommendations are as follows:
10.1 Choosing the right PV technology
The thesis elaborated on six existing PV technologies, commercial and non-commercial, defined as state-of-
art, standard and novel. PV multi-junction, CPV, c-Si, and thin-film where uncovered to be the commercial
existing standard and state-of-art technologies and the (current) non-commercial and novel technologies
was discovered to be PV nanowire and PV organic. All of which have separate qualities in term of price per
watt (or kWh), performance, practicability and applicability.
Multi-junction technology is the PV industry state-of-art in efficiency measure per sqm
2
, but is not
recommended for the mass-market, due to a price of USD 150-250/watt. The essential strength lies in the
high energy production with an average efficiency of converting 30% (triple junction) of the sun irradiation
into electricity. The multi-junction market-segment is connected to adopters with no spending-limits and a
high-energy demand on a limited surface area. KSA energy-plan of installing 16GW energy will not benefit
from this energy technology.
CPV make use of multi-junction technology, though only requiring a fraction of a normal PV multi-junction
module. In contrast other PV technologies, CPV uses mirrors to concentrate the solar irradiation up to 200-
300 times on small multi-junction PV cells (2mm x 2mm), with an energy efficiency on 2025%. CPV was
discovered to produce the same amount of kWh to a lower price (in KSA). However, due to the absence of a
proven track-record and commercial production, uncertainties like expected product life-cycle and efficiency
period degeneration is an unknown factor. However, the semiconductors (gallium-arsenide or indium-
gallium-phosphide) used in PV multi-junctions are known for its quality in resistance and durable structure
in tough environments. Due to KSAs high quantity of solar hours and irradiation, CPV is considered to be a

43
Quote 9, homepage
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great future potential technology for KSA, as these conditions are limiting the disadvantage of the multi-
junction bottle neck. Solar trackers are required to optimize the CPV efficiency, which will make CPV
modules able to turn away from a possible sandstorm, reducing the maintenance and service periods. CPV is
not recommended for residential rooftop, but it is recommended for large-scale commercial dessert projects.
PV c-Si (mono and poly c-Si) is the most standardized and mature commercial technology and has in
opposition to CPV a long track-record of three decades. PV c-Si has been tested in all possible environmental
circumstances, avoiding uncertainties and has a life-cycle on 25-30years. PV c-Si has an efficiency-rate on 15-
20% (depending on the company module quality) and is considered to provide the adopters with the PV
markets best joint of price/efficiency/area. The price-reduction per watt witnessed in the last decade, from
USD 4.3/watt in 2004 to USD 0.9/watt in 2014, has generated a huge leap to the mass-market adopter
segment and has reached grid-parity in 19 national market. The PV c-Si price-reduction has also generated
less reason to invest in PV thin-film, which still is marginally better in price/efficiency, but requires twice the
surface area. For this reason KSA could consider thin-film to large-scale field dessert projects, but will have
to take cleaning and maintenance into account, and therefore thin-film not recommended for KSA.
PV c-Si is however recommended to be a preferable and outstanding PV technology for the KSA market.
However, statements pointed towards a negative effect for PV c-Si suitability under extreme temperatures.
The thesis explored that a 50 C temperature will reduce PV c-Si module efficiency of 19-20% to approx. 17.29
- 18.4% and a thin-films 12% efficiency to 11.4%. The efficiency loss is considered to be within an acceptable
level, but will need to be calculated in the total PV value perception. SolarWorld and Solaria Energia have PV
plant installation in the dessert and do all favor and support PV c-Si the most optimal sustainable energy
resource. Moreover, the KSA irradiation level of approx. 2000 kWh/m
2
annually provides KSA PV c-Si with
117.8 kWh/m
2
a higher energy output than thin-film (table 6).
Table 6 - PV technology kWh/m
2
output in KSA
PV Nanowire is a novel technology and commercially untested. However, PV nanowire is considered to be a
potentially disruptive PV technology, which could replace PC c-Si after many years of R&D. Due to the
innovational leaps between nano-science and standard PV technology, PV nanowire is advocated to be a
PV technology Annual irradiation level Efficiency% Annual kWh/m
2

Triple Multi-junction 2000 kWh/m
2
30% 600 kWh/m
2

CPV 2000 kWh/m
2
25-28% 500 560 kWh/m
2

PV C-Si 2000 kWh/m
2
17.29 - 18.4% 345.8 kWh/m
2

PV Thin-film 2000 kWh/m
2
11.4%. 228 kWh/m
2

PV Nanowire 2000 kWh/m
2
13.3% (STC) 266 kWh/m
2

PV Organic 2000 kWh/m
2
2-4% 40 80 kWh/m
2

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serious upcoming competitor. This conviction is stated due to the discovery of the ongoing breakdown of
current PV barriers as reducing the use of semiconductor material and raising the efficiency to 3035%
(anticipated). Recent innovational leaps have been made by the Danish company, Gasp Solar, which has
made it possible to use the cheap silicon semiconducting instead of gallium arsenide. Another leader is the
Swedish company SolVoltaics that have manage to grow the nanowires 100-1000 times faster. KSA is
recommended to invest in this remarkable new technology, containing an (blue) ocean of possibilities. A PV
nanowire investment could contain a range of fourth coming advantages, as the commercial market is barely
touched and as the nanotechnology knowledge is not limited to solar energy only, but do relate to other
industry areas as e.g. laser-technology, speaker technology, LEDs etc. which considered as knowledge-
spillover.
Organic PV technology has no immediate commercial market, due to an efficiency at 2-4%, requiring 6-
8times as much surface area as PV c-Si. However, two particular advantages is of production speed and the
recycle of 99%. KSA could in theory use Organic PV, due to the nations large untouched dessert areas, but
would need to much cleaning service and maintenance.
10.2 Attaining technology leadership through R&D
To achieve the a continuation of enlarging the national and global PV adoption rate, the innovation
technology still requires an effective, long-term and balanced policy effort, allowing it to progress with less
PV price/watt reduction. To obtain this scenario, an increased effort in R&D spending is a vital action for the
continuing process of innovation. The thesis found evidence that nations driving an intense R&D effort (as
the US) are ensuring innovational processes and technology leadership, and is improving technology
performance, generating a base for a rapid PV adopter deployment, due to an enhanced compelling reason.
KSA is recommended to invest in R&D labs, and provide with an ambitious amount of technology-push
incentives towards companies (as witnessed in China, giving exemption of import tax and VAT for R&D related
matters). R&D will benefit KSAs PV industry in the long-run by developing a PV industry that may innovate
and drive PV technology improvement and hence be independent across the PV value chain (as China).
10.3 Getting the policy incentives right
The comparative perspective of USA, Japan, Germany and China provide key insights on how a nation may
succeed in the PV industry in different technology maturity stages. The energy policy, including incentive
programs and schemes, tax-reduction, loan and guarantees, have shown to affect the US, Japanese, German
and Chinese PV adoption diffusion process. Especially FIT have shown to be a vital government instrument in
generating a satisfied PV adopter market demand, and thereby developing a strong domestic market, which
will enhance with a decent innovational flow of circulation (in the 4T-model).
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KSA is recommended to incentivize the PV industry with various policy incentives that will kick-start the
domestic dynamic technology market momentum. The thesis classified FIT to be a great incentive to establish
a domestic PV demand in nationalities with high or average conventional utility prices. However, due to KSA
low energy prices, at USD 0.03/kWh, the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Abdullah is advocated to
implement so high FIT that adopters will make or receive a decent profit, and not only to reach grid-parity as
witness in other nations. Very high FIT will let the average Saudi adopter (early and late majority) connect to
the utility-grid and hence change the adopters PV value-proposition and only then will FIT work in a society
with (extreme) low utility prices. Hence, it is important to keep a stable and steady FIT system to prevent
unnecessary confusion and uncertainty, as the early and late majority adopters requires a long-term market
strategy to eliminate uncertainty issues.
Moreover, to reach the mass-market adopter segment KSA is advocated to develop a financial system that
induces preferable governmental or private bank loans and guarantees (as witness in e.g. Germany where an
80% loan was guaranteed for 10 years to a 1.91 interest-rate). The loan and guarantees will reduce the PV
systems high initial costs, encouraging the pragmatic and conservative adopters to engage in PV, by
lowering the economic barriers and reduce the payback time. Additionally, KSA is advised to create investor
support and grant incentives which have been of consistent significance to a stronger deployment of PV or
large-scale production (table 4).
The PPA system is recommended in KSA as the initial steps to produce large-commercial PV dessert plants,
which will ensure a stable and long-term (25-30 years) utility PV generation. The PPA incentive system
contains the tender of contract element, handing KSA the choice of which tender to use.
10.4 Using PV industry insights
The investigation of USA, Japanese, German and Chinese PV industries has contributed with some valuable
insights into the similarities and differences that makes each enabler successful in their respective PV periods.
An explanation behind the success is identified with a PV knowledge development occurring over time.
The US decentralized PV industry have benefitted from some of the most innovate PV companies due to US
company focus on separate parts of the PV value chain. In comparison, the German and Chinese PV
companies are covering the whole PV value chain, supporting the cost-reduction, which makes it more
streamline and cost-efficient. The Chinese success was achieved by developing the PV silicon sector, which
was attained through a large investment (in e.g. patenting) in the upstream part of the knowledge-intense
part of the PV value chain, making China control the whole PV value chain and become independent.
Moreover, the Norwegian PV company REC Group 9
th
position in the world raking (2012) happened due to
extended knowledge development from the very beginning of the PV adventure. REC Group management of
innovation in the PV Value Chain gives them a market cutting-edge technique to produce clean silicon. The
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REC Group success lies the past knowledge and the their keen understanding of how to adapt to the
surrounding changes.
It is recommended that KSA PV industry focus on two areas: (1) Covering and comprehending the whole PV
value chain to develop an efficient and strong manufacturing PV industry (to produce the 16GW themselves)
and (2) focusing at making the individual sectors collaborate with one another to establish a streamlined
production. To transfer the PV knowledge it is important for KSA to create partnerships and joint-ventures
between domestic and foreign companies, as witness in Germany and China. Moreover, it is recommended
that KSA encourages the collaboration between the PV industry and the constructing business to further
develop the integration of PV material as architectonic materials, thereby creating a powerhouse in the cities.
A solution to initiate a break could be if the government have to say that 5-10% of the energy in a company
or construction has to come from renewables as solar, wind. And that they can build more until they have
meet the requirements. By doing so, the KSA government uses companies and construction business, and
PV knowledge and technology, as a part of the solution to reach the 2032 goal also benefiting with
generating Saudi jobs, which is a primary target for KAKARE in the Saudi PV model. With a booming
construction sector in KSA that reached a budget at USD 42 billion in 2013, a solar cell architectural
alternative would be worth considering (Saudi-Gazette 2, article).
10.5 PV price per watt and grid-parity
The phenomenon of the dynamic maturing of the PV industry and technology have driven PV price-
reductions, which have created grid-parity in 19 national markets, with a forecast to include even further
nations in the future. The thesis finds the declining price/watt pattern unlikely to continue within a 3-4years
period, due to the recent decision by China and Germany to pull government support from PV manufactures
- as especially China have had a dominant role in pressuring the sell-prices to only marginally over the
production-price. Interview participants concurred with this statement, and some even suggest a minimal
rise in prices in the nearest future (SolarWorld, interview). The thesis does find a decline in PV price likely
after the eradiation process of the current PV markets over-capacity has stabilized to a healthy level. The
remaining PV companies with cost-efficient production chains will survive to compete on the PV price-level
and continue to generate innovation, leading to more compelling reasons to buy (in improving price,
performance, practicability and applicability). The drive of this scenario will still be FIT or NEM deployment
adopter incentives - and the goal of reaching higher domestic installation is set in respective nations (table4).
KSA should consider how to avoid too many PV industry players, as this have shown to harm the PV market
innovation process, due to marginal surplus per PV unit sold. A high deployment incentive, as FIT, does not
harm the innovation or PV market, but rather support the healthy PV companies. To avoid this scenario, it is
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crucial for KSA to find a balanced PV manufacturing incentive that will run the wheels between of PV
technology, PV industry and PV adoption.
10.6 PV companies of the future
The thesis found that there most likely will be future global market polarization. USA, Japan and Germany
predicted to gain more PV market share, due to a higher degree of innovational effort and policy R&D. In
compare, the Chinese PV companies are predicted to decline in the global market share. The question of
whom is going to be the future PV companies has a relevance for KSA, to attract and collaborate with the
best innovative and productive future PV companies. The thesis recommends KSA to attract the innovative
PV companies, which has been identified to be the PV companies focusing at innovating, developing and
improving existing and emerging technology. The US, Japanese and German companies do contain the
innovative integrate the next level of PV technology into KSA.
10.7 Domestic adopter demands
The early success of the US and Japan industry happened, due to the identification of the adopter demands
of price, performance, practicability and applicability and by creating the right compelling reasons to buy. For
domestic and foreign PV companies to reach the KSA adopters, the cultural and the environmental
circumstances are important aspects to consider and the possible key to the early and late majority Saudi
adopter segment. E.g., Saudi citizens have a culture tradition of camping in firmly established large tents in
the dessert (to compared with summerhouses in Europe). As grid connection has not been installed in these
areas, PV companies may focus on covering the particular Saudi demands.
10.8 Promoting PV business development
The following proposals and recommendations consists of the National PV Leaps.

The leaps consist of seven steps, suggesting that KSA should: (1) Initiate PV pilot project to do trial-and-error
processes and to get a clear perception of how and which PV technology to implement. R&D laps and support
is hence a vital tool to induce innovation and improve technology; (2) Turnkey operation will be the initial
step to a foreign transfer of PV basic and less-intensive technology require; (3) Develop PV industry cluster-
areas to concentrate and store PV knowledge that will induce with a knowledge synergy effect; (4) Incentivize
collaboration, partnership, joint-ventures and FDI to generate a knowledge-flow, directly into the KSA PV
industry that will hence boost and mature the interdisciplinary process of; PV industry, PV technology and
Initiate
Pilot PV
projects and
R&D
Turn-key
operation
(Downstream
)
Development
industry
cluster-areas
Join-venture
and
partneship in
the PV
industry
Collaboration
within
various
industries
Knowledge
intensive
integration
(Upstream) Create a PV
recycling
sector
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the PV adoption; (5) Incentivize a collaboration within PV industry and unrelated sectors that will integrate
interdisciplinary knowledge-input in the PV industry for the benefits of innovation development; (6) Develop
the knowledge-intensive (upstream) part of the value chain, which will provide with the advantage of
developing a cost-efficient and holistic PV industry; (7) develop a PV recycling sector that in the coming
decades will safely and environmentally enhance the PV economic and perceived value.

I am confidence and convinced that PV solar today and the time to come will flourish to become an even
greater supplementary energy contribution to a better, cleaner and more sustainable future - and as an
encouragement to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, I will provide with my favorite quote:

You have to be the change you wish to see in the world. Mahatma Ghandi
44



44
Quote 12, homepage
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11. A perspective on the future
The time is always right to do what is right. - Martin Luther King, Jr.
45

The obvious perspective would be to focus at the development of energy-storage system and the value it will
have on PV system implementation, as this would improve the PV innovation value perception, as energy-
storage is the a key problem. However, a relating KSA perspective would consist of how to lower the KSA
domestic energy consumption. The average Saudi citizens is the most energy consuming capita in the world.
By reducing the energy consumption KSA would naturally use less oil and would not be in such a hurry to
implement the PV Wave of Need. A future investigation could consist of analyzing the possible solution in
reducing energy consumption, by focusing on how the Danish company GreenWave Reality utility
management platform could be implemented and the effect in reducing energy consumption. However, this
thesis have illuminated a currently ongoing investment and thereby contributed in solving the conundrum to
an important piece in the puzzle of what must be accomplished for KSA to fulfill their solar energy potential.

45
Quote 10, homepage
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Science Daily - Understanding what makes a thin-film solar cell efficient
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greenhouse-gas-emiss
NREL Efficiency - http://www.solarplaza.com/article/1975-2013-all-solar-efficiency-records-in-one-char
Photon - http://www.photon.info/photon_news_detail_en.photon?id=84401
Population Review - http://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/saudi-arabia-population/
Pvmagazine - http://www.pv-magazine.com/news/details/beitrag/pv-predicted-to-produce-110-twh-in-
2013_100010851/#axzz2uhlAjFFW
PVtech - http://www.pv-tech.org/guest_blog/top_10_pv_module_suppliers_in_2013
PV science - http://www.pv-science.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=58:top-10-pv-
module-suppliers-in-2012&catid=44:industrie&Itemid=15
RenewableWorld - http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2012/02/jinko-climbs-amid-
chinese-heavy-solar-pv-module-rankings
Reuters, homepage - http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/15/us-climate-japan-
idUSBRE9AE00P20131115
SolarGis - http://solargis.info/doc/88
Solarenergytrends: http://solarenergytrends.blogspot.dk/2010/05/first-solar-became-largest-pv-
module.html
Solarfact 1 - http://www.solar-facts.com/world-solar/
Solarserver - http://www.solarserver.com/service/pvx-spot-market-price-index-solar-pv-modules.html
Solar World - Sustainability as a principle, last accessed on Oct. 31, 2013
http://www.solarworld.de/nc/en/investor-relations/news-announcements/corporate-news/single-
ansicht/article/solarworld-establishes-joint-venture-solarcycle-
gmbh/?cHash=f37eab04553efc8c8151c45ce24a4ac7&sword_list%5B0%5D=recycle
SSB - http://www.ssb.no/en/energi-og-industri/statistikker/elkraftpris/kvartal/2014-02-
25?fane=tabell&sort=nummer&tabell=164812
Stats - http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/jinsui/tsuki/index.htm
http://www.stats.gov.cn/enGLISH/PressRelease/201401/t20140120_502079.html
91 | P a g e

http://www.census.gov/popclock/

Quote 1 - http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/h/hermannhes161890.html
Quote 2 - http://allaboutstevejobs.com/sayings/stevejobsinterviews/fortune08.php
Quote 3 - https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/2121-it-is-hard-enough-to-remember-my-opinions-without-
also
Quote 4 - Allen L. Hammond, PVs: The semiconductor Revolution Comes to Solar, 1977, 445.
Quote 5 - http://www.environmentalhistory.org/brilliant/
Quote 6 - http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/j/johndrock107564.html
Quote 7 - http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/s/sorenkierk105030.html
Quote 8 The coding Manual for Qualitative Reseachers Johnny Saldana, page 60.
Quote 9 - http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/a/alberteins131187.html
Quote 10 - http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/m/martinluth106169.html
Quote 11 - http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/a/abrahamlin106095.html
Quote 12 - https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/24499-be-the-change-that-you-wish-to-see-in-the
Quote 13 - http://www.all-famous-quotes.com/Socrates_quotes.html
Quote 14 - https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/187861-it-is-easier-to-resist-at-the-beginning-than-at
Quote 15 - http://quoteinvestigator.com/2011/05/13/einstein-simple/


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Appendices
Confusion is the beginning of wisdom Socrates
47

Appendix 1
1. Multi-junction
2. Concentrated PV (CPV)
3. C-Si (mono- and polycrystalline)
4. Thin-film
5. Novel PV
a. PV Organic
b. PV nanowire
PV Multi-Junction is the best technology available, when converting the sun radiation into energy. The
technology have reached the highest efficiency recently announcing a record STC 44.4 percent from a triple-
junction solar cell (figure 12). To get the full potential of energy from multi-junction solar concentrators is
required and is for this reason not suitable for installing on roofs, build-in or traffic areas. Avoiding the
tracking of the sun will reduce the efficiency by one third. The result in the Multi-junction is a complicated
stack of e.g. crystalline layers with different band gaps that absorb most of the solar radiation (Gasp Solar,
Interview). Each type of semiconductor material has a characteristic band gap, which allows the absorption
of light most efficiently. It is a highly expensive technology, due to costly semiconductor-material, as well as
the high advance production.
Multi-Junction technology is the efficiency leader and used in todays satellites, which is a clear indication
of the outstanding performance for devices with a limited module area (Brown & Wu , 2009). The
semiconductor-cells used have been shown to be more robust, when expose to outer space radiation (Chaar,
et al., 2011).

47
Quote 13, homepage
93 | P a g e

Figure 36 - Illustrating irradiation absorption of the band-gabs (Clean Technica, homepage)
Figure 36 illustrates how a triple-junction cell (multi-junction), with three different semiconductor material
or substrate, is capturing the solar radiation wavelength in three steps.
48
The triple-junction above have
semiconductors with different band gaps (top) Indium gallium phosphide (InGaP), (middle) Gallium
arsenide (GaAs) and (bottom) is a combination of both materials.
The main disadvantage is if the top junction is dysfunctional, or a sandstorm or a cloud interrupts the light-
spectrum, this will have negative effect on the rest of the junction energy production (Gasp Solar,
Interview). For this reason, the multi-junction method is getting more sensitive in line with the numbers of
junction put together. The multi-junction technology may have the efficiency record in the optimal light
spectra, but this does not imply that it can deliver the same promising effect in the real world.
CPV is a successful method of reducing the cost with high-efficient cell (multi-junction). CPV use an optical
concentrator system which focus solar radiation onto a small high-efficiency cell. CPV cell are cut into small
cells (sometimes as small as 2mm2mm) with a large lens placed above the
cell, concentrating the solar radiation on the small cell (Chaar, et al., 2011). The
cell is exposed to several times the normal radiation, which concentrates the
suns radiation from 100 to 300 times (Gasp solar, Interview).
The CPV future looks promising, since the PV-high-efficiency technology has
more than double the efficiency compared to c-Si technology - and the
inclusion of quantum wells
49
in the active layers of solar cells can further
improve the efficiency. Concentrators have been used with silicon PV, though
not with nearly as efficient as using expensive semiconductor material.
The CPV technology has been called the biggest zero billion dollar industry because the CPV market has
suffered from is investment uncertainty or bankability, as CPV technology is relatively untouched in a
scientific perspective (Gasp Solar, Interview). The technology do not have a 20-30 years tracking-history, as
c-Si, which create an uncertainty-risk for USD 100million solar-investors. Furthermore, there have been no
CPV companies to guarantee their own existence 10years, that could insure to take responsibility if the CPV
technology is functioning, until know. The CPV company Soitec discovered how to take silicon thin-film and
use it for insulating layer, which made them a billion dollar company with bankability that is currently
investing in CPV market penetration (Gasp Solar, Interview). CPV technology is currently being tested in pilot
applications. A disadvantage is that CPV technology need a tracking-devises to make sure the sun light-beams

48
The wavelength is between 300-650nm, 650-880nm and 880-1250nm is absorbed by the three junctions.
49
A quantum well is a semiconductor with a small energy gap (or band gap) that is sandwiched between two thicker
layers of semiconductors with a large energy gap, such as gallium arsenide (GaAs)
94 | P a g e

are focused on the concentrating cell. The CPV method use lenses or mirrors, as well aluminum to construct,
which result is a cheap preferable method pr. Kilowatt hours.
PV Crystalline structure was the first generation of PV technologies, which uses silicon as a semiconductor
material. A high quantity of the produced solar modules is based on the silicon wafers technology, which is
thin wafers (slice or substrate of silicon semiconductor material) cutted from large cylindrical mono-
crystalline or poly-crystalline ingots.
50
These very thin wafers are then made into solar cells, which are
assembled into solar modules that are frame and enclosed in glass. (Bahrami, et al., 2012) There are different
costs and processes associated with each step, but the biggest technological challenging is making the cells
efficiently, which is the part of the PV value-chain that is the most expensive in terms of R&D. However,
equipment for making these intermediate products is widely and easily available (Sherwani, et al., 2009). A
valuable market advantages are its high reliability as it has been used and demonstrated for decade, as well
as its high efficiency power conversion. These aspects provides the PV facilities more reliability and the best
occupation ratio by using more power installed (for the same used area) than those used by other
technologies (Cern, et al., 2013). C-Si modules represent 85 percent of the global annual market today and
the technology may be divided in two main categories (Chaar, et al., 2011; IEA, 2012): mono-crystalline and
poly-crystalline.
PV Mono-crystalline modules produces have a higher commercial efficiency of app. 15-20 percent depending
of the material (IEA, 2012). The maximum efficiency of single-c-Si solar cell has reached was 24.7 percent
under STC (Chaar, et al., 2011). For some other semi-conductor materials, as Germanium and Arsenide, it can
reach 30 percent, but is then far more expensive. Attempts to enhance the efficiency are limited by the
amount of energy produced by the photons, since it decreases at higher wavelengths. (Chaar, et al., 2011)
PV Poly-crystalline modules have a more disordered atomic structure leading to a (marginally) lower
efficiency with average conversion efficiency of app. 14-19 percent. The multi-crystalline material have a
lower quality and a shorter lifetime, due to the crystalline defects and metal impurity, but also have the
advantage of lower production-cost (Bahrami, et al., 2012; IEA, 2012). Multi-crystalline was initially the
dominant technology, while the cost of silicon was high (USD 340/kg). However, even with a silicon price-
reduction to USD 50/kg, multi-crystalline technology is more attractive because of the low production-cost,

50
An Ingot is usually a metallic (or non-metallic like semiconductor material) form that has been shaped for further
processing. The Ingot need a second procedure consisting of cutting or milling to it has reached its final shape.
The single-crystalline ingots material are crystal grown, which is called the Czochralski technique, used to produce
single crystalline material as the semiconductor (e.g. Silicon, Germanium and Gallium Arsenide). The ingots after the
process ends up as thin-wafers. The other type of wafers called is multi-crystalline wafers sliced from polycrystalline
ingots prepared by a simpler casting such as directional solidification technique. There are several other methods of
growing single crystals of silicon from liquid, gas or solution such as; Czochralski technique, heat exchange method,
dentritic web method, silicon on ceramic method, etc.
95 | P a g e

even though these cells are slightly less efficient than mono-crystalline (Chaar, et al., 2011). The advantage
of using multi-c-Si compared with single crystalline is the decrease flaws in metal contamination and the
more disordered crystal structure. The crystalline technology is commercially the best alternative when
measuring in the parameters of price/efficiency. Though, c-Si is not the most preferable technology in the
dessert environment as it has a tendency to lowering the efficiency in hot-climate. It would however be the
best PV technology to use where limited area is required, as roofs or build-in PV (Gasp Solar, Interview, DTU
Interview).
PV Thin-film technology is characterize by the reduced cost of the active material, but with a markedly lower
efficiency. Unlike crystalline technology, where semiconductors are placed between the materials, thin-film
technology is basically thin layers of semiconductor materials applied to a solid backing material, such as
glass, stainless steel or plastic (EIA report, 2012). The thickness of the deposited layers are only a few micron
(smaller than 10m) thick, where crystalline wafers tend to be several hundred micron thick. Thin-films
technology greatly reduce the amount of semiconductor material required for each cell/module compared
to e.g. silicon wafers (Chaar, et al., 2011). In comparison with c-Si cells, thin-film technology reducing the
quantity of material and manufacturing cost, without jeopardizing the cells lifetime as well as any hazard to
the environment.
The less PV semiconductor material naturally absorb less of the solar radiation, which then results in lower
efficiencies. The thin layers have the ability to deposit many different semi-conductor materials and allow an
incredible improvement in efficiency. Four kinds of thin-film cells have emerged as commercially important:
1) Amorphous silicon (a-Si)
51
, 2) thin poly-c-Si on a low cost substrate, 3) Cadmium-Telluride (CdTe)
52
, 4)
Copper-Indium-Diselenide (CIS) and Copper-Indium-Gallium-Diselenide (CIGS).
53

Empa, research and services institution for material sciences and technology development, have recently
developed a high-efficient thin-film solar cell by using the semi-conductor material CIGS, with enable to
achieve an efficient of 20.4 percent. The solar cell are deposited onto plastic foils, as normal thin-film, is used
the benefits of the cheap roll-to-toll manufacturing.
54
A great thin-film advantage is the flexibility and
temperature robustness of the PV modules, which has resulted in a non-existing market in the early 2000 to

51
Amorphous silicon (a-Si) is one of the earliest thin-film technologies developed. This technology diverges from c-Si in
the fact that silicon atoms are randomly located from each other. This randomness in the atomic structure has a major
effect on the electronic properties of the material causing a higher band-gap (1.7 eV) than c-Si (1.1 eV). There are
several variations in this technology where substrates can be glass or flexible SS, tandem junction, double and triple
junctions, and each one has a different performance.
52
Cadmium telluride (CdTe) has long been known to have the ideal band-gap (1.45 eV) with a high direct absorption
coefficient for a solar absorber material and recognized as a promising PV material for thin-film solar cells.
53
Copper indium diselenide (CuInSe2) or copper indium selenide (CIS) as it is sometimes known, are PV devices that
contain semiconductor elements from groups I, III and VI in the periodic table which is beneficial due to their high
optical absorption coefficients and electrical characteristics enabling device tuning
54
Article 5, sciencedaily
96 | P a g e

about 1520 percent (Chaar, et al., 2011; Cern, et al., 2013). Thin-film is not recommended to put on the
rooftop, as they do not deliver enough compared with how much space it requires, which also is a
disadvantages in thin-film technology. Though, it would be a perfect supplement for the dessert, as the thin-
film is a prevailing technology in the extreme heat and there is plenty of space not used (Gasp Solar,
Interview). According to these characteristics, the choice between one group and other, determines the way
of integrating PV technology into construction materials and consequently the final formal aspects. (Cern,
et al., 2013)
Novel PV technologies
Organic PV solar cells (also called polymer) are a novel innovation of thin-films, that consists of organic
semiconductors such as polymers
55
and small-molecule
compounds like pentacene, polyphenylene vinylene, copper
phthalocyanine and carbon fullerenes (Chaar, et al., 2011). The
highest efficiency achieved by STC is app. 12percent, using
conductive polymers
56
, but in real life the polymer cell have app.
2-4 percent effeicency (P.hd. DTU, Interview). The Danish
scientist, Frederik Krebs
57
, at Denmark Technical University (DTU)
states that the real benefit for the world lies not in the world
records of effeciency, but in how much the actual efficiency an accumulated PV plant produces in under the
environment circumstances. Another important part lies when within the technological reach of flexibility,
disposability, recycling, installation time and the productivity volume in takes to manufacturing 1 kilowatt
(DTU, Interview). Since organic thin-film is primary made from plastic opposed to traditional silicon, the
manufacturing process is very cost effective, due to lower-cost material and high throughput manufacturing.
The organic PV technology is actual cheaper pr. kilowatt compered to single- or multi-crystalline. Another
advantage is the limited technical challenges a facility requires, as it do not need high-temperature or high-
vacuum conditions. For this reason the investment capital of building a production facility is a few million
Euros, compared to mono and poly-crystalline facility, which would be at least a few billions euro (DTU,
Interview). The efficiency performance in a hot climate does also manage very well compared to crystalline
technology. Due to the easy applicable long rolls of organic material it 1 kilowatt may be installed in app. 3.30
minute compared to app. 19 minute, when installing c-Si.

55
Polymers can be found as numerous of natural and synthetic material of (usually) high molecular weight consisting
of up to millions of repeated linked units, each a relatively light and simple molecule.
56
Conductive polymers are organic polymers made of organic material. The biggest advantage of conductive polymers
is their processability and flexibility.
57
Head of section, professor - Department of Energy conversion and storage - Functional organic material
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A huge disadvantage is however that the organic PV requires 6-8 as much surface-area then other
commercialized PV technologies. The organic PV does also degenerate faster than crystalline technology with
a lower life-time-curve, which does that the possibility of maintains and re-installation is required at higher
level. Due to the low-efficiency and required high surface area, the PV organic technology, is not rooted in
any commercial market yet.
PV Nanowire is a relatively new discovery in the PV technology, from where the PV limitation has moved
one-step further.
58
The PV nanowire technology provide with an ability to better control the energy band-
gap and thereby enhancing the probability of charge recombination, as well as the flexibility and inter-
changeability between in the semiconductor material (Serrano & Garcia-Martinez, 2009). The PV nanowire
is seen as the most promising application for the PV solar energy. The PV nanowire technology improve the
conversion efficiency, structures from nanotechnology products that absorb more sunlight, with creating
devices such as nanotubes, quantum dots, and hot carrier solar cells.
59
What is remarkable of the PV
nanowire is that it is possible to exploit larger and wider band-gaps, which is absorbing more light and
producing more output voltage (While cells with the smaller band-gap results with larger current but smaller
output voltage). PV nanowire can concentrate the irradiation up to 15 times of the normal sun intensity,
which is remarkable as it opens a potential for developing a new type of high-efficient solar cell.
60

The two Danish scientists PhD in PV nanowire
and quantum-mechanics, Martin Aagesen and
Peter Krogstrup, has discovered how to
improve the nanowires quality and flexible.
Normally the PV technology was limited in
using cheap material as silicon with expensive
material as IIIV
61
and Gallium, as the different
distance between the atoms is too wide. The distance in the atom simply made the PV-modules cracked, due
to the temperature differences (Gasp Solar, Interview).

58
Article 6, Solardaily
59
Nanotubes is typically made of carbon-structure that can be used as reasonably efficient photosensitive materials as
well as other PV material. Currently nanotubes are used as the transparent electrode for efficient, flexible polymer
solar cells. Quantum dot meta-materials are a special semiconductor system that consists of a combination of periodic
groups of materials molded in a variety of different forms. They are on nanometer scale and have an adjustable band-
gap of energy levels performing as a special class of semiconductors. Hot carrier technique is the most challenging
method since it utilizes selective energy contacts to extract light generated by hot carriers from semiconductor
regions without transforming their extra energies to heat.
60
Article 6, Solardaily
61
IIIV material is material from the III and V group in periodic system. III-group: gallium, indium, aliminium etc. and V-
group: azen og fosfor
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With the new improved PV nanowire technology, it possible for two semiconductor, silicon and IIIV material
to function together, as the flexible PV nanowires are absorbing the tension between the materials. The two
scientist made it possible to cut away the expensive Germanium material and growing the substrate with the
ultra-cheap silicon, and only using 1/5 of the expensive IIIV material. With the reduced material prices and
an estimated efficiency on 30-35 percent, the nanowire prices is expected to be USD 10-15/watt compared
to the traditional high-effective solar sell at USD 150-250 pr./watt. The material may be cheap, the
production method is the expensive hurdle and the PV nanowire technology need more research before
being commercially available.
62
The market for the new improved PV nanowires would be in the category of
high-efficiency small solar modules like mobile charger or for military use.
63
The PV nanowire have two
junction, a IIIV in the top and the silicon substrate in the bottom, which make them less sensitive in clouded
weather (Gasp Solar, Interview).
64


Appendix 1.2 - The hot climate and dust effects on PV modules
The potential output of a PV system is in the dessert is highly effected by two factors; dust and temperature.
65

The dust effect on PV module surface is of great concern in the desert regions, as this covering the glass
transmittance and hence decreases the amount of solar irradiation reaching semiconductor material,
ultimately leading to less electricity. Dust may lead to a power decrease by as much as 50 percent if PV
module are unclean in a six months period and a single dust storm may reduce the energy output as much
as 20 percent (Adinoyi, et al., 2013). A possible solution to reduce the negative dust effect might be to tilt
the PV module angle towards the wind direction, naturally blowing the dust away.
66
By using tracking-device,
it is possible to tilt the PV system 30 degrees and reduced dust effect up to 50 percent - or turn the PV system
in the opposed position of a sandstorms direction, enhancing the energy output (Gasp Solar, Interview).

62
Article 2, Saudigazetta
63
PhD. Martin Aagesen visited the US Marine Force Expedition Energy Office, as they would like to put effective solar
cells at the soldiers. It had been calculated that the price for transporting the batteries were USD 3000-4000
pr/kilowatt hour. The American has developed a solar cell wallet that may produce 10watt/pr hours, which has payed
off after own week.
64
What is furthermore interesting about the PV
nanowire technology is that it reaches further than PV technology, and may be used to create laser, amplifiers, LEDs
etc.
65
In general, the performance of PV is influenced by geographic, climate conditions and environmental factors as the
degree of irradiation, rain, humidity, dust and temperature.
66
Another nature force that might be of assistance cleaning the PV system is rainfall. However, rain rarely occurs in
the dessert (or the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia).
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Ironically, PV performance ratio decreases due to the sun generation of heat. Temperature plays a vital role
in the PV conversion process to electricity, as the temperature decreased app. 0.52 percent for each degree
above 23-25C (Skoplaki, et al., 2008; Charabi, et al., 2013; Park, et al., 2009).
The various range of PV module technology converting app. 6-20 percent of the sun radiation into electricity,
depending upon the type of PV technology and climatic conditions. Both mono and poly -crystalline has
demonstrated better performance during winter period, in opposition to thin-film that showed relatively
better performance (though still decreasing) (Zinsser, et al., 2011).
The effect of temperature on PV modules technologies shows an average loss in of energy of 8 percent in
mono-crystalline, 9 percent in poly-crystalline, and 5 percent in thin-film, when exposed to the same
surrounding temperature of approx. 45C (Zinsser, et al., 2011).
67
A possible solution to achieve an optimal
efficiency is (of cause) to cool the PV system by implanting and combining the PV module with a heat
exchange mechanism, using fluid stream like air or water. This type of system is known as a hybrid-system,
which absorb and transform the heat from the module to produce thermal energy. In this process, the
module has a lower temperature and the thermal energy producing hot water (Rehman, et al., 2013).

Appendix 2 - Government Policy Ramifications
Market incentives correspond to the strategies targeting the market, which include following approaches
(Sarasa-Maestro et al 2013). Below follows an explanation of the various policy subsidies.
1. Feed in Tariffs
2. Tradable Green Certificates with a Quota System
3. Investment and Tax Incentives
4. Bids on the Quota System
5. Technology and R&D Investment Subsidies
6. Power Purchase Agreement
1. The general philosophy of Feed-In Tariffs (FIT) is to encourage the installation and manufacturing of PV
solar energy (or any other renewable energy source). FIT is a complex tool that can be developed in many
different forms and variations - but it is a widely used financial tool that have proven to be a highly effective
government incentive tool, when aiming at boosting the installed capacity and shaping the future
development for the PV value chain (Couture and Gagnon, 2010). FIT generates fixed transparent electricity
prices that supports PV investor (small consumer or big manufacture) by giving guarantees to receive a

67
Although, the relatively high temperatures negative effect on the efficiency, the PV modules in e.g. KSA compared
to Denmark will still provide more energy accumulated, as the radiation is twice as high and the period of solar-hours
are longer.
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payment per unit of the energy produced. FIT may also offers long term contracts for manufactures, which
typically offers low tariffs that is attached to the production cost. FIT is calculated based on different factors;
energy prices and ability to pay. There are many different approaches to structure the remuneration of FIT,
although FIT is used with small variations (Couture and Gagnon 2010).
One possible model is the Gross FIT, which indicates that the accumulated energy produced by the PV
system is remunerated plus the energy consumed by the user, e.g. the energy used by the house in a home
PV system, is bought to the electrical grid at the price of the electricity.
A second model is the Net Metering (NEM), which only grants remuneration for the net energy injected to
the electrical grid (the energy produced by PV minus the energy consumed by the user). With NEM, utilities
provides credit to PV electricity customers for the full retail value of the electricity they produce. If a customer
produces as much electricity as they consume, their bill "nets out" to zero or to any minimum monthly
customer charges. That means customers don't pay for electricity, but it also means they aren't paying
anything towards the utility's fixed costs, such as existing generating assets that produce electricity when the
sun isn't shining or distribution lines.
Tariff rates may differ depending on plant size, technology, Interest Rate of Return and other factors and
their value may decrease over time (Avril, S. et al 2012).
68

2. The Green Certificates with Quota System, which is only used by few countries, requires producers,
distributors or consumers to maintain a certain quota of renewable energy in their overall energy
consumption.
69
This policy approach is based at the price of the energy that is set by the actors involved in
the program and is well accepted by a public who do not want absorb costs in the electricity tariff (Avril, S.
et al 2012).
70

3. Government Tax Reduction is incentives and support investment over the whole PV production chain. The
tax reduction are used to encourage the use and manufacturing of PV systems, as tax benefits may increase
the return on investments, depending upon the rules and laws of each country (Avril, S. et al 2012, 327). All
EU countries support investments with this kind of fiscal incentives. A set of measures eases access to credit
and reduces the tax burden for the installation of PV systems. The cost of capital is seen as the main barrier
to the development of the PV industry. Different measures act as investment support, such as grants and

68
The Interest Rate of Return (IRR) measure and compare the profitability of an investment, such as PV installation
(small or large) and differs among countries, which are caused by the risks in each country. High-risk countries must
stimulate greater interest from the investors by offering more benefits through the FIT. The governments can modify
the FIT when the IRR is higher. The IRR with a loan are much higher than the IRR without a loan because a loan at a
relatively low interest rate (6 percent) favours the IRR.
69
The quota system is generally known as a quota obligation or Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) in the United
States.
70
The Absorbed Cost is the indirect cost that is associated the PV manufacturing and which would mean that the
public taxes would be influenced and the public would pay the bill, as in the Feed-In Tariff.
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loans, or tax incentives, such as tax credits, reduced taxes, and accelerated depreciation. Incentive programs
usually use a combination of these methods.
4. The Bid to Quota System holds open public auctions for projects to produce electricity, which are managed
and controlled by the government. Each producer bid on the individual project and the winning bidder, is
often the lowest, is then paid (Avril, S. et al 2012, 317). Previous experiences with this mechanism in other
countries were not successful due to high transaction costs and long waiting periods. It does not involve
minor rooftop projects, but merely focus a big producers
71

5. Technology and R&D incentives drivers correspond to support R&D subsidies and demonstration
programs. These drivers focus at development of PV installations, aiming at promoting among others PV solar
energy and thus stimulate the market (Avril, S. et al 2012, 247).
6. Power Purchase Agreement
Power Purchase Agreement is financing model, introducing a third-party model ownership. This model of
construction requires a separate, system owner (taxable entity) to procure, install, and operate the solar PV
system on a consumers premises. This could be joint-venture between Saudi and foreign PV companies. PPA
have some important financing advantages that solves the financial part of a high-cost investment: (1)
No/low up-front cost for customers (2) Ability for tax-exempt entity to enjoy lower, electricity prices thanks to
savings passed on from federal tax incentives.
(3). A predictable cost of electricity over 1525
years. (4) No need to deal with complex system
design and permitting process. (5) No operating
and maintenance responsibilities (NREL, 2009 s.
1)
A key advantage is the predictable cost of
electricity over a period of 15 to 25 years, which
eliminate uncertainty and unpredictable price
fluctuations from utility rates. The usual PPA
pricing setup fixed price or a fixed escalator (annual price increase). The PPA model offers that the electricity
produced by the PV plants is sold to the government at a fixed rate over the life of the contract (NREL, 2009).
Another unusual PPA pricing, is a model where the customer price follows the utility rate with a
predetermined discount, ensuring that the PPA price will be lower than utility rates. This is a complicated
structure and undermines the price-predictability advantage.

71
PV remuneration policies in the European Union, 327
102 | P a g e

A two new emerging PPA structures, is where the consumers either prepay for a portion of the power to be
generated by the PV system or make certain investments at the site to lower the installed cost of the system.
Prepayments can improve economics for both parties and provide greater price stability over the life of the
contract (NREL, 2009).
Regulatory policies allow low-cost financing and the cost reductions and FIT injection is still required on global
scale for PV to become competitive among other energy alternatives (Neuhoff et al. 2012). Three particular
nations that have been implementing some of the above mentioned policies incentives and subsidies is USA,
Germany and China. All of which, in the respective order, have served with chronological impact on the PV
diffusion and adoption of PV technology, nationally and globally.
Appendix 2.1
The SunShot Initiative's mission is to make the total cost of solar energy economically viable and affordable
by:
72

Funding research and development in multiple PV technologies
Awarding funds to PV projects with solar industry partners, universities, and national laboratories
through a competitive process.
Increase efficiency, reduce production costs and open new PV solar markets.
Foster collaboration for utility-scale solutions.
Strengthen the U.S. supply chain for solar manufacturing and commercialization of cutting-edge PV
technologies
Invest in education, policy analysis, and technical assistance to remove critical barriers
Develop a well-trained workforce to foster U.S. job creation in the solar industry.
Appendix 2.2
German loan and grants
Grants / Cash Incentives (the Joint Task program and the Investment Allowance program)
73


72
DOE 2, homepage
73
The Joint Task program is the distribution of non-repayable grants (usually in the form of cash payments) for
investment costs and is regulated by the Joint Task program throughout Germany. The amount granted varies
between different regions according to their level of economic development. Individual ceilings can be determined by
each state, up to the maximum incentive levels, as given by the Joint Task program.
103 | P a g e

The regions with the highest incentive levels (period 2007-2013) are clustered in the eastern parts of
Germany and offer grants of up to 30% of eligible project costs for large companies. In various regions
in Western Germany, companies can also receive subsidy rates up to 15% of eligible expenditures for
large companies.
The Investment Allowance program promotes investment projects and usually allocated in the form
of a tax-free cash payment.
Reduced-interest Loans (at national and state level)
74

Publicly owned banks (development banks) supply loan programs to investors.
Public Guarantees (at state and combined state/federal level)
75

Public guarantees facilitates financing investment young projects and innovative businesses through
the capital market.
Appendix 2.3
MOST administer the R&D budget to support in research institution within the categories of three kinds of
programs:
1) MOSTs National High-tech R&D Program supports innovation in strategic high-tech fields. It has
disbursed funding to R&D of BIPV, CPV, on-grid large-scale PV in deserts, and thin-film, from 2006 to 2010
2) MOSTs Chinese National Basic Research Program supports basic scientific research for long-term
development.
3) MOSTs Key Technologies R&D Program supports R&D for the current development of the national
economy. During the period



The Investment Allowance program was created in order to promote investment projects in the new federal states of
Germany (Berlin, Brandenburg, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt and Thuringia).
74
Reduced interest loans: Publicly owned banks at the national and state level (so-called development banks) offer
publicly subsidized loan programs to investors in Germany. Usually, these loan programs combine interest rates at
levels below current market rates with attractive grace periods. Reduced-interest loans as a subsidy can normally be
combined with other public funding programs.
75
Guarantee needs up to Euro 10 million and covers up to 80% of the loan amount.
104 | P a g e

Appendix 3 Top 15 PV manufactures and
innovational companies

Table 7 - Top 15 PV companies (Appendix 3.1)
Company Nation GW Production Founded
Year
PV Technology MANUFATURIES
IN% (2012)
1
st
Yingli Green
Energy
China 3GW (2013)
2.01GW (2012)
1.55GW (2011)
1998 Mono and poly-
crystalline
6.7
2
nd
Trina Solar China 1.7 (2012)
1.35 (2011)
1997 Mono and
polycrystalline
4.7
3
rd
Sharp Japan 1.05GW (2012)
1.1GW (2011)
1959 Triple Junction
Mono and
polycrystalline
3.0
4
th
Canadian Solar China 1.50GW (2012)
1.36GW (2011)

2001 Mono and
polycrystalline
4.6
5
th
Jinko Solar China 0.9GW (2012)
0.78GW (2011)
2006 Mono- and
polycrystalline
2.6
6
th
ReneSola China - 2006 Polycrystalline 2.1
7
th
First Solar USA 1.9GW (2012)
2.01GW(2011)
1999 Thin-film 5,3
8
th
Hanwha Solar
One
China 0.85GW (2012)
0.83GW(2011)
2004 Mono- and
polycrystalline
2.5
9
th
Kyocera Japan - 1975 Mono- and
polycrystalline
2.1
10
th
JA Solar China 0.95GW (2012) 2005 Mono and
polycrystalline
2.8
11
th
SunPower USA 850 (2012) 1988 Mono and
polycrystalline
2.6
12
th
SolarWorld Germany 0.76GW (2011) 1975 Mono- and
polycrystalline
__
13
th
REC Group Norway 0.82GW (2013)
0.72GW (2012)
0.65GW (2011)
1994 Mono- and
polycrystalline
2.1
14
th
LDK Solar China 2.5GW (2012)
774GW (2011)
2005 Mono- and
polycrystalline

15
th
Suntech Power China - Mono- and
polycrystalline
4.7



Table 8 - Innovation companies or research center (NREL Efficiency, homepage) (appendix3.2)
Company Nation Founded
year
Technology
76
STC Efficiency
1 Soitec France - (Four) Junction * 43.6%

76
Multi junction is divided in two, triple and four junctions. Concentrator is used: *
105 | P a g e

2 Sharp Japan 1959 (Triple) Junction * 44.4%
3 Solar Junction USA,
California
- (Triple) Junction * Approx. 44%
4 Spire Solar USA 1969 (Triple) Junction * Approx. 44%
5 Boing SpectroLab USA 1956 (Triple) Junction * Approx. 43%
6 NREL USA 1979 (Two) Junction 31.1%
7 Amonix USA,
California
1989 Mono-crystalline* 27.6%
8 UNSW Australia - Mono-crystalline 25%
9 Panasonic Solar (Sanyo) Japan 1975 Mono-crystalline (HIT
technology)
77

24.7%
10 ISFH (Reseach) Germany Poly-crystalline

20.4%
11 UNSW (Reseach) Australia - Poly-crystalline

Approx. 20%
12 GE Global USA - Thin-film (CdTe) 19.6%
13 First Solar USA 1999 Thin-film (CdTe) Approx. 19%
14 Sharp Japan 1959 Thin-film (a-Si) 13.4%
15 Konarka Technologies USA 2001 Organic 8.6%


Appendix 3.3 - Top PV solar companies
The following section is a short description of the largest and most influential PV companies.
78


Yingli Green Energy (China) was established in 1998 and went public in May 2007.
79
The company deals with
the whole set, from solar wafers, cell manufacturing and module production, with a production a total
production capacity of 2.45GW in 2012. The financial statement for 2011 reported shipments of 1.6GW. In
January 2009, Yingli acquired Cyber Power Group Limited, a development stage enterprise designed to
produce poly silicon. Through its principle operating subsidiary, Fine Silicon, the company started trial
production of solar-grade polysilicon in late 2009, and was still ramping up to full production capacity of
3,000 metric tons per year in 2011. In January 2010, the Ministry of Science and Technology of China
approved the application to establish a national-level key laboratory in the field of PV technology
development, the State Key Laboratory of PV Technology at Yingli Green Energy's manufacturing base. The
company base their success on the three core values; Innovation, always being at the forefront of the latest

77
HIT is a special tecnique where ultrathin amorphous (non-crystal) silicon layer is used between the crystalline
material.
78
http://www.energydigital.com/top_ten/top-10-business/top-10-successful-solar-companies
http://www.pv-tech.org/guest_blog/top_10_pv_module_suppliers_in_2013
http://www.theecoexperts.co.uk/worldwide-top-10-solar-PV-panel-manufacturers
79
http://www.yinglisolar.com/en/about/milestones/
106 | P a g e

technology, Trust shown by their customers in their products and Social Responsibility, to the environment
and their workforce.(article 27)
(www.yinglisolar.com)
Trina Solar (China) was founded in 1997 and went public in December 2006. The company has integrated
product lines, from ingots to wafers and modules. In December 2005, a 30 MW monoc-Si wafer product line
went into operation. In January 2010, the company was selected by the Chinese Ministry of Science and
Technology to establish a State Key Laboratory to develop PV technologies, which is serving as a national
platform for driving PV technologies in China, including research into PV-related materials, cell and module
technologies and system-level performance. It will also serve as a platform to bring together technical
capabilities from the company's strategic partners, including customers and key PV component suppliers, as
well as universities and research institutions. In 2011, the production capacity expand the capacities to
2.4GW for cells and modules. Trina produces 1.9GW solar and shipped 1.51GW in 2011. Trinas module
volume in 2013 grew by more than 60 percent compared to 2012. With the aggressive targets being set for
2014, the company is challenging Yingli for the top ranking position in 2014.
(www.trinasolar.com)
Sharp Corporation (Japan) began to develop solar cells in 1959 and commercialized production in 1963. Since
its products on Japan's first commercial-use artificial satellite, in 1974, Sharp has been the only Japanese
maker to produce silicon solar cells for use in space. Another milestone was achieved in 1980, with the release
of electronic calculators, equipped with single-crystal solar cells. In 2011, Sharp had a production capacity of
1.07GW and shipments of 857 MW.
(www.sharp-world.com)
Canadian Solar (Canada/China) was founded in Canada in 2001, but has established six wholly-owned
manufacturing subsidiaries in China, manufacturing ingot/ wafer, solar cells and solar modules. Canadian
Solar has a 2.1GW module manufacturing capacity (1.9GW in China, 218 MW in Ontario, Canada) in 2011. In
2011, the company manufactured 2GW of modules.
(www.canadiansolar.com)
Jinko Solar (China) was founded in 2006 and went public in 2010. Starting from up-stream business, the
company expanded operations across the solar value chain, including recoverable silicon materials, silicon
ingots and wafers, solar cells and modules in 2009. Jinko has over over 10,000 employees across over 165
acres of factories in China and has become one of the largest manufacturing bases for solar products,
establishing a global R&D center with universities from all over to engage in continuous innovation in the
sector. The company manufactures mono- and poly-crystallinesilicon solar cells. Its manufacturing capacities
reached 1.2GW in 2011 and reported sales of about 812.6 MW (760.8 modules and 51.8 cells).
107 | P a g e

(www.jinkosolar.com)
ReneSola (China) was founded in 2006 and is a leading Chinese manufacturer of solar products. By
capitalizing on proprietary technologies, economies of scale and low-cost production capabilities, the
company continues to be a part of China's transformation from a manufacturing into an important end-user
of solar products. . In 2012, the Renesola manufactured 0.88GW of modules. In February 2014, ReneSola has
announced to collaborate with Japanese semiconductor specialists Vitec Co. to begin making solar panels in
Japan.
(www.renesola.com)
First Solar (USA) was founded in 1999 and is one of the few companies in the world to produce thin-film
modules (CdTe). The company has installed 8GW worldwide and has currently three manufacturing sites in
Perrysburg (USA) Frankfurt/Oder (Germany) and in Kulim (Malaysia), with a total capacity of 2.38GW in 2011.
In 2011, the company produced 1.98GW. In April 2012, First Solar announced a major restructuring to
respond to the changing market conditions. The company announced to close the factory in Frankfurt/Oder,
Germany, and idle four production lines in Kulim.
(www.firstsolar.com)
Hanwha Solar One (China/South Korea) was established in 2004 as Solarfun Power Holdings, the largest
Chinese manufacturer of electric power meters. In 2010, the Korean company, Hanwha Chemical, acquired
49.99 percent of the shares and change name to Hanwha Solar One in January 2011. The company produces
silicon ingots, wafers, solar cells and solar modules. The first commercial production started in November
2005.The company had a 1.5GW PV module production capacity, 1.3GW of cell production capacity, 800 MW
of ingot and wafer production capacity. In 2011 the company produced 939 MW modules.
(www.hanwha-solarone.com)
Kyocera (Japan) was founded in 1975, and began with research on solar cells. R&D and manufacturing of
solar cells and products started with mass production of poly-crystallinesilicon solar cells in 1982. In 1993,
Kyocera started as the first Japanese company to sell home PV generation systems. Besides the solar cell
manufacturing plants in Japan, Kyocera has module manufacturing plants in China (joint-venture with the
Tianjin since 2003). In 2011, Kyocera had a production of 660 MW. Kyocera had a 1GW production capacity
in 2012.
(www.kyocera.com)
JA Solar Holding (China) and established in 2005. The production capacity was 2.8GW for cells in 2011. For
2012, an increase in module capacity to 2GW is foreseen. Sale was estimated to be 1.695GW.
(www.jasolar.com)
108 | P a g e

Renewable Energy Corporation (REC) (Norway/Singapore) was founded in 1994. REC vision is to become the
most cost-efficient solar energy company, with a presence throughout the whole PV value chain. The
company is located in Norway and has five business activities, ranging from silicon feedstock to solar system
installations. In 2011, the company decided to shut-down REC Scan-Cell, located in Narvik, Norway
(production capacity of 180 MW), and furthermore in 2012 to shut-down of the wafer factory (300 MW
capacity for poly-crystalline wafers) in Glomfljord, and move the production facilities to Singapore. However,
the 650 MW wafer plant at Heroya, Norway continues operation. In 2012, production of solar cells and
modules will only be done at REC Solar Singapore, which operates an integrated site for wafers, solar cells
and modules production, with a capacity of 750 MW. In 2011, production was reported with 1.07GW wafers,
699 MW modules and 640 MW of cells.
(www.recgroup.com)
SolarWorld (German) delivers is connected throughout PV value-chain, from the raw materials to
manufacture, design, and technology development. From its production base in Frieberg, Germany, they
employ over 3,500 people in Germany, Spain and France, South Africa, Asia and the USA. Solar World
manufactured 1.4GW in 2011.
LDK Solar (China) was established in 2005 and manufactures today polysilicon, mono and poly-
crystallineingots, wafers, cells, modules, systems, power projects and solutions. In 2010, the company set up
a production line for solar cells, with a capacity of 120 MW, increased to 2.2GW in 2012. For 2011, the
company reported a production of 590 MW solar cells, 840 MW solar modules and 1.5GW of wafers.
(www.ldksolar.com)
SunPower (USA) was founded in 1988 to commercialize high-efficiency silicon solar cell technology and went
public in November 2005. SunPower designs and manufactures high-performance silicon solar cells designed
for commercial use. The initial products, introduced in 1992, were high-concentration solar cells with an
efficiency of 26 percent. SunPower conducts its main R&D activity in California in a collaboration with
Stanford University. Moreover the company has cell manufacturing plants in the Philippines and Malaysia. In
2011 they had capacity of 2GW.
(us.sunpowercorp.com)

109 | P a g e

Appendix 5 Solar Irradiation


Picture 1 . KSA solar Irradiation level - http://solargis.info/doc/88

Picture 3 - Europe solar Irradiation level - http://solargis.info/doc/88
Picture 2 - Afrika solar Irradiation level -
http://solargis.info/doc/88
110 | P a g e

Appendix 6- Feed in Fariff scenarios
The three FIT scenarios below is examined by Leepa (et al 2013) and illustrates the possible scenarios in the
period 2009 2010, identifying how a government may more efficiently control the adoption installation, so
that the individual nation production-target may not accelerate to unmanageable proportional heights and
thereby keeping the expenditures within sight.
Constant- scenario, where FITs remain unchanged
Linear- scenario, with linearly decreasing FITs
Cost-related- scenario, where the development of FITs is linked to the development of PV panel
prices
The table 8 illustrates (from left) the capacity installation per year, respectively 2009 and 2010, the
accumulated capacity installation, the support in billion and lastly the support in euro/kWp. This model is a
qualified guess of how the adoption of the market would react to each scenario.
By keeping the FIT constant
on the 2009 level (before any
cutting) a fewGW is reduced
from the actual German
experience. The Linear
reduction shows not
surprisingly that the higher
the percentage on FIT-
reduction is per month, the
lower the accumulated
installation in the long run
however in 2009 the linear
1.5percent and 2.0percent show a larger adoption than the actual scenario. And thirdly, the cost-related
Table 9 - Comparison of different FIT regimes (Leepa, et al., 2013).
Figure 37 - Installed capacity and hypothetical values for the scenario (Leepa, et al., 2013).
111 | P a g e

regulated within 3 or 6 months interval will lead to a small difference between the respectively. An interesting
point is however (figure 37) that that within a timeframe on 1 year (short run) the actual experience
generates less PV adoption then both of the cost-related scenarios. The spike-effect occurring before a FIT
regulation may also be an explanation to why the actual scenario (11.21GW) have a higher adoption then
the constant scenario (9.68GW).


112 | P a g e

Appendix 7

7.1 Crystalline PV module price in Japan, Germany and China
Year Germany PV Price Japan PV Price China PV Price
2009 May 3,61 3,47 2,29
2010 Jan 2,8 2,63 2,14
2010 May 2,67 2,65 2,16
2011 Jan 2,36 2,25 2,03
2011 May 2,16 2,05 1,72
2012 Jan 1,47 1,45 1,09
2012 May 1,32 1,32 0,95
2013 Jan 1,07 1,15 0,73
2013 May 1,06 1,11 0,74
2014 Jan 0,95 0,96 0,8


Source: SolarServer, homepage

3,61
2,8
2,67
2,36
2,16
1,47
1,32
1,07 1,06
0,95
3,47
2,63 2,65
2,25
2,05
1,45
1,32
1,15
1,11
0,96
2,29
2,14 2,16
2,03
1,72
1,09
0,95
0,73 0,74
0,8
3,12
2,52
2,49
2,21
1,98
1,34
1,19
0,98 0,97
0,9
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
4
2009
May
2010
Jan
2010
May
2011
Jan
2011
May
2012
Jan
2012
May
2013
Jan
2013
May
2014
Jan
Crystalline PV module price in Japan, Germany
and China
Germany PV Price Japan PV Price
China PV Price Average PV price
113 | P a g e

7.2 PV price curve, 1980 2014

USD/watt
Year C-Si
1980 29,5
1981 24,5
1982 19
1983 17,6
1984 15
1985 13,3
1986 12,3
1987 9,8
1988 7,6
1989 6,6
1990 7,3
1991 7,95
1992 7,76
1993 7,5
1994 7,1
1995 6,4
1996 5,58
1997 6,1
1998 6,4
1999 6,4
2000 5,4
2001 5,23
2002 5,4
2003 5
2004 4,3
2005 3,8
2006 4,04
2007 4,01
2008 4,05
2009 2,29
2010 2,16
2011 1,72
2012 0,95
2013 0,97
2014 0,9
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020


0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
U
S
D

p
e
r

w
a
t
t
Year
PV price curve
1980 - 2014
Source: Bloomberg, New Energy, SolarServer and Photon, SolarServer, homepage


114 | P a g e

7.3 Average price of crystalline and thin-film 2009 - 2014


Source: SolarServer, homepage












0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
2009
May
2010
Jan
2010
May
2011
Jan
2011
May
2012
Jan
2012
May
2013
Jan
2013
May
2014
Jan
U
S
D

P
E
R

W
A
T
T
YEAR
Average price of
Crystalline and Thin-
film 2009 2014
Average Crystalline Silicon price
Thin-film a-Si/u-Si
Thin film CdTe
Year
Average
C-Si price
Thin-
film a-
Si/u-Si
Thin-
film
CdTe
2009
May
3,12 2,69 2,45
2010 Jan 2,52 1,9 2,22
2010
May
2,49 1,9 2,19
2011 Jan 2,21 1,74 1,72
2011
May
1,97 1,57 1,43
2012 Jan 1,34 1,04 0,93
2012
May
1,19 0,89 0,84
2013 Jan 0,98 0,71 0,77
2013
May
0,97 0,69 0,75
2014 Jan 0,9 0,62 0,74

115 | P a g e

0
500.000
1.000.000
1.500.000
2.000.000
2.500.000
3.000.000
3.500.000
4.000.000
4.500.000
M
E
G
A
W
A
T
T
YEAR
PV adoption development
2003 - 2050
Annual PV installation Accumulated PV installation
European commission, report

7.4 Accumulated and annual global PV installation; 2004 2014
Year
Annual PV
installation
Acc. PV
installation


2041 148.638 2752000
2003 749 2.800 2042 152.718 2904000
2004 1.199 4000 2043 156.798 3061000
2005 1.782 5400 2044 160.878 3222000
2006 2.459 7000 2045 164.958 3387000
2007 3.801 10000 2046 169.038 3556000
2008 7.126 16000 2047 173.118 3729000
2009 11.315 24000 2048 177.198 3906000
2010 24.047 40000 2049 181.278 4087000
2011 27.000 71000 2050 185.358 4272000
2012 35.500 100000
2013 36.000 136000
2014 38.478 174500
2015 42.558 217.000
2016 46.638 263000
2017 50.718 314000
2018 54.798 369000
2019 58.878 428000
2020 62.958 490000
2021 67.038 557000
2022 71.118 628000
2023 75.198 703000
2024 79.278 782000
2025 83.358 865000
2026 87.438 953000
2027 91.518 1044000
2028 95.598 1140000
2029 99.678 1239000
2030 103.758 1342000
2031 107.838 1450000
2032 111.918 1562000
2033 115.998 1678000
2034 120.078 1798000
2035 124.158 1922000
2036 128.238 2050000
2037 132.318 2182000
2038 136.398 2318000
2039 140.478 2459000
2040 144.558 2603000





116 | P a g e

7.5 Forecast model












Source: SolarServer, homepage









Year
Decline
PV price
Level-
out
Incline
PV
price
2009 May 3,12 3,12 3,12
2010 Jan 2,52 2,52 2,52
2010 May 2,49 2,49 2,49
2011 Jan 2,21 2,21 2,21
2011 May 1,98 1,98 1,98
2012 Jan 1,34 1,34 1,34
2012 May 1,19 1,19 1,19
2013 Jan 0,98 0,98 0,98
2013 May 0,97 0,97 0,97
2014 Jan 0,9 0,9 0,9
2014 May 0,85 0,88 0,88
2015 Jan 0,8 0,85 0,9
2015 May 0,75 0,84 0,94
2016 Jan 0,7 0,83 0,98
2016 May 0,65 0,82 0,96
2017 Jan 0,6 0,815 1
2017 May 0,55 0,813 1,05
2018 Jan 0,5 0,812 1,1
2018 May 0,45 0,811 1,2
2019 Jan 0,4 0,81 1,25
2019 May 0,35 0,8 1,28
2020 Jan 0,3 0,8 1,32
2020 May 0,28 0,8 1,35
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
2
0
0
9

M
a
y
2
0
1
0

J
a
n
2
0
1
0

M
a
y
2
0
1
1

J
a
n
2
0
1
1

M
a
y
2
0
1
2

J
a
n
2
0
1
2

M
a
y
2
0
1
3

J
a
n
2
0
1
3

M
a
y
2
0
1
4

J
a
n
2
0
1
4

M
a
y
2
0
1
5

J
a
n
2
0
1
5

M
a
y
2
0
1
6

J
a
n
2
0
1
6

M
a
y
2
0
1
7

J
a
n
2
0
1
7

M
a
y
2
0
1
8

J
a
n
2
0
1
8

M
a
y
2
0
1
9

J
a
n
2
0
1
9

M
a
y
2
0
2
0

J
a
n
2
0
2
0

M
a
y
U
S
D

p
e
r

W
A
T
T
YEAR
Forecast model
Decline PV price Level-out Incline PV price
117 | P a g e

7.6 Accumulated and annual global PV installation; 2004 2014


USD/watt

Year Crystalline
Adoption
Rate
Accumulated
adorption
rate
1980 29,5
1981 24,5
1982 19
1983 17,6
1984 15
1985 13,3
1986 12,3
1987 9,8
1988 7,6
1989 6,6
1990 7,3
1991 7,95
1992 7,76
1993 7,5
1994 7,1 78
1995 6,4 78 600
1996 5,58 89 700
1997 6,1 126 800
1998 6,4 155 900
1999 6,4 201 1200
2000 5,4 277 1400
2001 5,23 372 1800
2002 5,4 542 2200
2003 5 749 2800
2004 4,3 1.199 4000
2005 3,8 1.782 5400
2006 4,04 2.459 7000
2007 4,01 3.801 10000
2008 4,05 7.126 16000
2009 3,12 11.315 24000
2010 2,49 24.047 40000
2011 1,98 27.000 71000
2012 1,19 30.500 100000
2013 0,97 36.000 136000
2014 0,9 49.000 185000

European commission and Economist, homepage



0
50.000
100.000
150.000
200.000
2
0
0
4
2
0
0
5
2
0
0
6
2
0
0
7
2
0
0
8
2
0
0
9
2
0
1
0
2
0
1
1
2
0
1
2
2
0
1
3
2
0
1
4
M
E
G
A
W
A
T
T
AXIS TITLE
Total and annual global
installation of all PV
energy from 2004 - 2014
Annual PV installation
Accumulated PV installation
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1
9
8
0
1
9
8
3
1
9
8
6
1
9
8
9
1
9
9
2
1
9
9
5
1
9
9
8
2
0
0
1
2
0
0
4
2
0
0
7
2
0
1
0
2
0
1
3
PV crystalline vs.
annual adoption rate
USD/watt
6.1 PV crystalline vs. Annual adoption 1980 - 2013
6.2 - Total and annual global installation of all PV energy
from 2004 - 2014
118 | P a g e

7.7 Illustration of value of a PV module
kWh
Price
Efficiency
15%
Efficiency
19%
10 15 19
20 30 38
30 45 57
40 60 76
50 75 95
60 90 114
70 105 133
80 120 152
90 135 171
100 150 190
110 165 209
120 180 228
130 195 247
140 210 266
150 225 285
160 240 304
170 255 323
180 270 342
190 285 361
200 300 380
210 315 399






0
100
200
300
400
500
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100110120130140150160170180190200210
K
I
L
O

W
A
T
T

H
O
U
R
PV MODULE COST USD
Illustration of value of a PV module
Efficiency 15% Efficiency 19%
119 | P a g e

8.1 PV installed in Japan and Germany
8.1.1 8.1.2
Japan Germany

YEAR
PV installed capacity
(MW) YEAR
PV installed capacity
(MW)
1990 4 1990 3
1991 4 1991 3
1992 4 1992 3
1993 5 1993 3
1994 7 1994 3
1995 12 1995 4
1996 16 1996 7
1997 32 1997 12
1998 42 1998 10
1999 75 1999 12
2000 122 2000 40
2001 123 2001 78
2002 184 2002 80
2003 223 2003 150
2004 272 2004 600
2005 290 2005 850
2006 287 2006 850
2007 225 2007 1100
2008 210 2008 1500
2009 483 2009 3800
2010 991 2010 7411
2011 1100 2011 7500
2012 1800 2012 7600
2013 4000 2013 3300

Source: (Chowdhury, et al., 2014), Article 31


0
2000
4000
6000
8000
M
E
G
A
W
A
T
T
YEAR
PV i nstal l ed i n Germany
1991 - 2013
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
M
E
G
A
W
A
T
T
YEar
Japan PV installed
1991 - 2012
120 | P a g e

Appendix 8 Interview matric example
Interview matrix
Mr. Juan F. Gil, Engineering and R&D Department Manager
My Research Question:
How can the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia utilize the investment in PV knowledge and technology to help
build a sufficient sustainable energy development for the future needs - and thereby reach its PV 2032
goal?
My focus is to identify some essential element of how the solar technology may best be transferred,
adopted and diffused in nations to do so I will look at the solar industry past victories within technology
achievements, Governmental influence and Solar company development. A case is to see how the KSA solar
industry may achieve their 2032 goals, investing 109 billion dollars to build the solar infrastructure and
integrate solar capabilities. I have been there myself, working at the Danish Embassy as a Commercial
Trainee (1aug. 2012 1feb. 2013).
My goal is foremost to illustrate what technology and knowledge the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) needs
in order to do develop a successful PV solar business development. As my assumptions are, the KSA do not
sustain adequate knowledge or technology, I will perspective the cumulative arsenal of assistance KSA may
buy or be provided with, when transfer from conventional energy to renewable energy.
I hope with this interview, to extract some of the important factors that make it possible for your company
to achieve success in nation as Sweden, Denmark, Uganda or (the almighty) Saudi Arabia and how
companies and nation may change the strategic aspect, when adapting from early market users to
attracting the mass market early and late majorities (visualized below).
This are important steps to take in consideration when diffusing a high-tech technology.

The Interview infrastructure
1. Short information introduction about Solaria Energia
2. Solaria Energia present activities in KSA
3. Solaria Energia knowledge and technology transfer to KSA
4. Domestic implication in KSA
5. Domestic implication
6. Market segmentation

1) Shortly about you and Solaria Energia
Can you tell a little of yourself and your relation in Solaria Energia?
Juan Fracisco Gil is the Engineering and R&D Department Manager and has worked in Solaria Energia for
two years. Before Isfadong (Spain energy company) for 8 years 13years experience in the business.
How much does Solaria Energia cover of the PV Solar value chain? (Manufacturing, installation and
maintaining).
121 | P a g e


2) Solaria Energia present activities in KSA
When and how did Solaria Energia initiate the KSA solar marked?
We stated two years ago and had the first meeting with the Saudi company. We are present I KSA and
analyzing where it is the best place to install the manufacturing line with our portfolio and they will offer
EBC and DBA, maintenaince.
The process it KSA is very slow and every company is waiting for the KAKARE program to be started.
And we have started to transfer a little knowledge to the company that we suppose to collaborarate with.
Saudi companies dont have experience and they need companies with a long background and help with the
installation, the manufacturing and all the steps.
FOLLOW UP - Why did you chose to collaborate with a Saudi company?
It is important to collaborate, and have a 50/50 percent agreement we may offer our knowledge and
technology, and they can offer us the finance support and they can supply with a good contact to the
Government. And this company we have found have a good connection but I can not tell you the KSA
name as it is classified.
How is Solaria Energia engaged in the Saudi Arabian market?
- How mature are Solaria Energia in penetrating or basing the capabilities in KSA?
The production in KSA is not at full capacity, and Juan is helping the business development in the
department in Madrid is the KSA market. The target is to install manufacturing lines in KSA.
The market is waiting for the government, they annoceed that they would launch on September 2013. This
didnt happen but we are contact with the Government (KAKARE), and are getting information.
Do you collaborate with KSA companies?
We are collaboration with a KSA company and they will establish a joint-venture. They have almost sign, but
are waiting for the final document. But they are willing to work with others.
- Why do you chose to collaborate or not?
Do Solaria Energia collaborate or share knowledge with other foreign companies in KSA?

3) Solaria Energia knowledge and technology transfer to KSA
How can Solaria Energia provide value in terms of knowledge and technology in KSA?
Do you expect to install research labs, developing labs or merely just produce the technology at home
and install the large fields?
We plan to participate in the tender for research and development. We did not have the proper
documentation for the first tender (bud), but we are ready to participate But it depends when we can
start.
E.g. in Spain we have our manufacturing and close to that we have our laboritory to improve the product
and develop new product profit. For this reason it will be linked to the production line. There is two possible
ways: 1) Is to go with the tender for the Government and 2) go together with the manufacturing line.
FOLLOW UP What kind of development research do you do?
We are only focused in Mono- and poly crystalline.
FOLLOW UP Is that the technology KAKARE have expressed they want?
Yes they have. In the beginning of the draft they are focus at mono and poly crysattaline - and not very open
to thin-film or other technology. I have a contact in Dubai, where they have installed a lot First Solar thin-
film with a lot of problems in the environment and we are very confident with the poly-crystalline, because
there are made previous installations in Dubai and KSA, which have worked just as good as they work in
Europe.
FOLLOW UP Have you tested Mono- and Poly crystalline heat effect on the modules?
Yes, we have a climatic camper here in our department and we have tested it, and passed (OK) all the test.
But we need to pass an inspector certificate an international normative. Not so many companies have this
test but we need to have this test to get the tenders and have our installations there.
122 | P a g e

We have 1 megawatt plant in Almeria in Spain, where the temperature reaches 40 degrees or more. Dessert
area there, and we have monitored the modules and it works perfect for the dessert.
We have some problems with the dust on the modules, but this is easy to fix.
FOLLOW UP How can you fix this problem?
We have to clean It can manually or use a special machine there is available on the market. This machine
do not need water and it clean very fast.
FOLLOW UP Are you in other Arabic countries?
Yes, we are working for sun-tender in Jordan, Libia and Kuwait - because they are doing pilot installations.
In Kuwait there are a 10 Megawatt pilot-tender and after that they are likely to launch new tenders. We are
there in contact with two important companies to do ventures, but they are progress.

4) Domestic implication in KSA

Is there any differences between KSA market, Spain or other markets Solaria Energia?
It can be very slow, especially when it comes to contract between a collaboration partner.

What is the most important thing KSA need to focus at in order to develop the 2032 goal?
What are the main barriers?
Firstly, they go very slow in the process and I dont know if they can reach the goal within the time frame.
But they told us (KAKARE) that it will go very fast and it was important to be there at the beginning.
They need to improve their Grid-line and electricity-line, as they do now, they are increasing the capacity of
the electricity line. And their goal is to change the big generators with PV installation and it is important to
be able to install the PV installation to the Grid.

Dubai try very hard to one of the big players in sustainable energy. They will launch Grid-parity this year.

FOLLOW UP Do you know if KSA is going to use Feed-Tariff?
No, they are going PPA (Power Purchase Agreement), which is very clear in the KAKARE program.
The Oil and gas is extremely cheap in KSA and it is not possible to compete directly with the electricity of
company the government need to incentives in the new installation. The PPA, the price of the electricity
that the customer will have to pay will be higher that there are in KSA today, therefor the Government go
very slow with the program, because they will need to find the finance way to this program.

5) Domestic implication:
When building an solar energy platform on a national level
What in your view is the most important thing a nation need to focus at in order to develop the
foundation for PV energy transition?
In the case of KSA where the energy price is very cheap it is impossible to start a sustainable industry
without subsidies. A nation need to create a stabile program, and dont start with very high incentives that
the Government can not maintain, but instead you have to start then very carefully. And it is very important
that they launch the PPA program with a tender the companies with the lowest price will win the tender.
But it is important to have the correct technology companies and a technology where the technology works
more than 20 years. There is a balance between quality and price.
FOLLOW UP Which nation will KSA likely transfer technology from?
At the moment they will use American, European (German and France) and maybe Japan. They also buy
from China, but the perception is not very good about the China product.

How would Solaria Energia best benefit from a national governmental influence?
The Government could initiate cluster solar programs, where they rent a particular land, building and
123 | P a g e

electricity, to a beneficial prices for solar companies and they could help with the employee contract and
hire good qualitative workers.
For the reason, KSA have some meetings to shape what other counties are doing in to develop renewable
energy. There for they dont want Feed-In Tariffs but instead PPA.

I read that both Germany and China are cutting the subsidiaries and incentives.
Why do you think they do this? Is it an expression for that solar energy is dont need subsidiaries and
have become sustainable?
In spain we dont need subsidiaries or incentives more, because the electricity price are high than the solar
price we can install in the home.
If KSA use Feed In tariffs consumers will not buy solar, because the normal electricity price is very very low.

6) Solaria Energia market segmentation
If we look at the model on page 1 - It seems that PV solar energy in general still are in the early adopters
stages worldwide, though Germany have made some transition to the early and late majorities users.
What do you think it would it take a nation to attract the mass-population also named the early and late
majorities?
I think that the world have past the early adopters and visionaries but the barriers is to enter the mass
market depends on each market. E.g. as the Spain example.
In South America and they are developing very fast, Chile, Brazil, Argentina and they are working with PPA
because in guarantee a security in 20years.
In the Middle East, the price of the electricity is not real. The government are making incentives to the price
as they sell a barrel for app. USD 100, but the use a barrel for USD 6 there are big difference in the
export and domestic use of the oil.

General
Do you see a larger corporation between construction companies and the PV-Industry in the future? How
will Build-In PV-solar influence the solar industry?
Yes, in the new subway they are building in Riyadh there are several station with PV solar on the roof and
it grow very slow, because the price on Build-Integrating are higher than the normal PV.
Another issue is that some engineers and architects dont know exactly how to install these modules they
need more knowledge and information. If this branch or business had more information they would be able
to use PV more. It is a general awareness-problem with engineers, architect and construction people, as
these industries still not know the full potential and possibilities to use BIPV as a product
FOLLOW UP Is there is a potential market for BIPV that have not been covered?
Yes for sure, and KSA will be a potential market for that.

The current positive development in solar industry will in the
next two decades leave a massive graveyard of old modules.
What is your thought about that?
They are working on it and it will be easy to reprocess and recycle e.g. the most material is the aluminum
and it is very easy to take away and recycle.
The glass and PV itself it is not here now, but they are working on making it more efficient.
I have seen modules working more that 30years with more than 70 percent of the efficiency.