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A380s Outsized

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50 Days Under
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Pentagons Plan
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AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 1, 2014 3

Contents
WorldMags.net
September 1, 2014

AVIATION WEEK

Winner 2013

& S PA C E T E C H N O L O G Y

Digital Extras Tap this icon in articles


in the digital edition of AW&ST for exclusive
features. If you have not signed up to
receive your digital subscription, go to
AviationWeek.com/awstcustomers
6
8
10-11
12
14
15
16
18
19
47
48
49

Volume 176 Number 30

38

State-protected, 9-lb. grass-eating gopher tortoises are fond of


the turf in areas around the runways at Orlando Sanford (Florida)
International Airport, an affinity that has cost the government and
airport hundreds of thousands of dollars in mitigation attempts.

Feedback
Whos Where
The World
Up Front
Commanders Intent
Inside Business Aviation
Airline Intel
In Orbit
Washington Outlook
Classied
Contact Us
Aerospace Calendar

THE WORLD

10 Agencies probe failure of a Soyuz


to place two European navigation
satellites into their circular orbit

11 Pilatus preparing its PC-24 twinengine business jet for a rst ight
next spring after prototype rollout

11 Obituary for retired NASA astronaut Steven Nagel, who ew four


shuttle missions, two as captain

MISSILE DEFENSE

20 Israels Iron Dome counter-rocket


battery system a success story
in latest conict with Palestinians

21 Now that Ground-Based Missile


Defense has succeeded, MDA
turns to improving the kill vehicle

DEFENSE

AIR TRANSPORT

23 Most powerful Pentagon acquisition

28 Increasing A380 ops at Heathrow

official about to give contractors


what they want: more competition

show more challenges that could


emerge at other legacy airports

30 Results of tests of a ceramic engine

24 Top Pentagon contractors hone their

nozzle on a modied 787 show potential for fuel savings on future designs

lobbying to be more creative in


push for a competitive advantage

31 Japan devising plan for a second

25 Indonesian military has been on a

aircraft type, to raise the industry


to the importance of Japanese autos

buying spree that is likely to hold


steady for the next decade

32 Increasing number of airlines see

46 AirTanker, which provides U.K.s air-

benets in letting passengers


handle their own baggage

to-air refueling capability, wants to


help ll NATOs tanker shortfall

SPACE

UTILITY AIRCRAFT

27 NASAs heavy-lift Space Launch Sys-

33 Viking believes its upgraded Series

tem rocket takes key step toward


carrying humans into deep space

400 Twin Otter has found a place


in the civil and military markets

ON THE COVER

28 Senior air traffic control-

34

Hundreds of kittiwakes on the runway at the St.


George Island, Alaska, airport provide an extreme example of the threat that wildlife can pose to aviation. Retired
biologist Bob Martinka, who took the cover photo in 2010,
was in charge of harassing the birds from the runway
whenever passenger or cargo ights were due. His tools included propane cannons, devices that are used around the
world for the purpose. But there are some intriguing new
ideas for decreasing the chances of aircraft and wildlife
coming into contact (see articles starting on page 34).

lers at Heathrow say the biggest


impact of A380 operations comes
from the spacing requirement.

20 Iron Dome
has demonstrated
improved performance,
scoring an almost 90%
success rate.

WorldMags.net

4 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 1, 2014

23 Pentagon unveils
new guidance that
expands the competition
in its contracting.
AviationWeek.com/awst

WorldMags.net

September 1, 2014

Volume 176 Number 30

AVIATION SAFETY

18

34 FAAs approach to mitigating wildlife

42 Wildlife mitigation at airports, hardening of airframes and engines to


birds are not foolproof solutions

strike risks seem to be working,


especially at commercial airports

38 Airport in Florida tries articial turf


to contain protected tortoises and
keep them away from runways

38 Southwest Florida airport quick


to grasp the importance of a wellplanned wildlife mitigation effort

ENGINEERING

40 Increase in the number of large

44 Aerospaces growing need for higher


volumes of thermoplastics may
bring more investment in tooling

birds ying near JFK prompts an


on-property shooting program

41 High-tech meets old-school at BWI


as wildlife mitigation cuts the
number of damaging bird strikes

VIEWPOINT

50 U.S.-led drive to develop space that


starts with the Moon would be a
means of broadening cooperation

24

On the Web
A round-up of what youre reading on AviationWeek.com
Late astronaut Steve Nagel was a classy guy with a droll wit, Executive Editor Jim Asker writes in
our On Space blog. Read about how Nagel landed short at Edwards AFB in the space shuttle but managed to joke about it. ow.ly/AP3Te. AviationWeek.com/OnSpace
Join us for the Check 6 podcast this
week as Aviation Week editors discuss
the advances being made in avian
and wildlife management at airports.
AviationWeek.com/Podcast

QUIS CUSTODIET
Bill Sweetman, our senior international
defense editor, takes a critical look at
the arguments of a critic of Israels
Iron Dome anti-rocket defense
system (see page 20). Read
Sweetmans extensive critique on
our Ares defense blog ow.ly/AP5DP.
AviationWeek.com/Ares
Use AWIN to find supPREMIUM pliers in thousands of
CONTENT product categories and
subcategories. Its powerful search function allows you to find
suppliers by location, company size,
minority-owned/disadvantaged status
and more. AviationWeek.com/awin
Keep up with all the
news and blogs from
Aviation Weeks editors.
Follow @AviationWeek or like us at
Facebook.com/AvWeek
Follow

AviationWeek.com/awst

MOUNTAIN SEARCH
Hiking up one of tallest peaks in the
Adirondacksin the rainis not most
peoples idea of fun, but when searching
for one of the many airplane wrecks
hidden among the upstate New York
parks mountains, pain and discomfort
are irrelevant. What was relevant was
nding a hull of a Piper Cherokee that
crashed atop Mt. Marshall at midnight on
Sept. 1, 1970. ow.ly/AOZV6.
AviationWeek.com/ThingsWithWings
On a column about the
FanWing concept for intermodal cargo container
transport, reader M_5teve
writes: Perhaps, an effort geared
toward increasing capacity in the oversized/overweight cargo market would
be a more profitable ventureespecially
given current air cargo overcapacity and
the cavernous 777X looming over the
horizon. ow.ly/AP7Sn

WorldMags.net

READER
COMMENT

AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 1, 2014 5

Feedback

IP SUPREMACY

WorldMags.net

I greatly enjoyed the highly detailed


Road Map (AW&ST Aug. 25, p. 36),
outlining the new Rolls-Royce turbofan strategy. Now all three engine
manufacturers have plans in place to
develop engines that offer lower noise
and double-digit improvements in fuel
burna boon for the ying public.
Several years ago Rolls was engaged
in a legal battle with Pratt & Whitney
over the intellectual property (IP)
rights of a particular fan blade design.
The case specically involved design
details of the leading edge and curvature of the blade. Pratt came out on top
in that disagreement.
I was surprised to read that the basic
engine architecture is nearly identical to the recently certied PW1500G.
Pratt also has several more members
of the PW1000G family to be certied
in the coming years. I hope Rolls has
considered the IP strategy that must go
along with its new engine plans, or has
the battle of just a few years ago been
forgotten?
Bill Sheridan
SOUTHINGTON, CONNECTICUT

BACK-ROOM INTENSITY
Innovations Quiet March, the
headline of a recent commentary
(AW&ST Aug. 11/18, p. 18) is an accurate description. It happens every day
in the back rooms of most aerospace
companies, carried out by a few creative, persistent engineers, protected
by their management from wasting
time with strategists and other noninnovators. True innovators do not go
to air shows.
The F-35B shaft-driven lift-fan
propulsion system was invented by
two engineers in the back room of the
Skunk Works in 1990 and patented.
The radome technology used on the
F-22 and the F-35 was invented by one

microwave engineer in the back room


of the Skunk Works around 1983 and
prototyped on the F-117.
The task of management is to nd
the people who have new ideas, then
fund and protect them. This usually
takes only a fraction of the R&D budget. For the record: In my 35 years at
Lockheed, I never went to an air show.
Sherm Mullin
OXNARD, CALIFORNIA

DULLING THE EDGE


The editorial Still Some Explaining
To Do about the Joint Strike Fighter
(JSF) (AW&ST Aug. 11/18, p. 74) posits
a naive view. Early in my career I can
remember engineers talking about
ghter aircraft in the 1970s sitting on
operational ramps with holes in the
backs because the engines were so
unreliable (after development). I can
also remember us losing more than 50
of another ghter in the early 1880s
(post-development). And these went on
to become highly successful aircraft.
Anyone who believes that steps can
be taken to assure it will not happen again, does not understand the
complexity and margins
in ghter design, and has
already forgotten history.
Reliability is probabilistic; bad things can only be
minimalized to an acceptable level. Have we come a
long way since then? Lets
hope so.
Yes, the failure had
inconvenient timing, but I
suspect the F-35 will have
fewer critical failures in its
eventual early operational
life than its predecessors.
Im not against renewing the Engine Wars. But it is an
economic question, not a safety-net
decision. We live in scal times that
may leave us with single-industry
sources for leading-edge ghters and
engines, which will ultimately leave us
with nothing leading-edge at all.
Clarence Kohring

Aviation Week & Space Technology welcomes


the opinions of its readers on issues raised in
the magazine. Address letters to the Executive
Editor, Aviation Week & Space Technology,
1911 Fort Myer Drive, Suite 600, Arlington, Va.
22209. Fax to (202) 383-2346 or send via e-mail
to: awstletters@aviationweek.com
Letters should be shorter than 200 words, and
you must give a genuine identification, address
and daytime telephone number. We will not
print anonymous letters, but names will be
withheld. We reserve the right to edit letters.

well at the ISSa stout 90% or so


of that at Earths surface. Indeed,
gravity is the operative that keeps the
ISS bound to its orbit. No gravity, no
orbitas those astronauts well know.
This is a failure of language rather
than of knowledge.
However, the National Research
Council has joined in the no-gravity
refrain by proposing that a 3-D printer
at the ISS would be operating in an absence of gravity. And NASAs homespun, circular-reasoning misnomers
microgravity and zero gravityare
setting the pace.
Weight, of course, is the subject
not gravity. Your writers, as active
messengers, temper that alternate science somewhat by modifying NASAs
microgravity to absence of gravity.
The function of language is communication of thought. Our current
terminology, weightless and weightlessness, describe the real science
absence of weight.
Terry Golden
MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA

REV UP THE A-10 DEBATE


As I think about the air strikes taking
place in Iraq against the Islamic terrorists, I wonder how much more effective
the A-10 would be against targets on
the ground. I am pretty sure its 30mm
ammunition, bomb load and loiter time
would be much more effective by a wide
margin than expensive low-mileage, afterburning, carrier-supported aircraft.
I can only hope the Pentagon is
reconsidering how best to ght a thinly
deployed group of terrorists.
Baron Holtz
PITTSBORO, NORTH CAROLINA

BEAVERCREEK, OHIO

MORE FABULOUS 40S, PLEASE


WORDS HAVE WEIGHT
Astronauts have proclaimed there is
no gravity at the International Space
Station (ISS): as in everything oats,
theres no gravity, and myriad other
statements that have appeared in Aviation Week over the years.
Gravity, nonetheless, is alive and

WorldMags.net

6 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 1, 2014

I enjoyed 40 under Forty (AW&ST


Aug. 11/18, p. 57). I would like to see a
compilation of the young talent and
skills in the government part of the
A&D sector; harder to nd, perhaps,
but they are there.
Jim Sandberg
BUSHWOOD, MARYLAND

AviationWeek.com/awst

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Whos Where

WorldMags.net
rian Colan has become vice
president/controller/chief accounting officer of the Lockheed
Martin Corp., Bethesda, Maryland. He
succeeds Christopher Gregoire, who
is now vice president-nance and business operations for Lockheed Martin
Mission Systems and Training. Colan
was vice president/controller for Lockheed Martins Missiles and Fire Control and Electronic Systems.
Robert Molsbergen (see photo) has
been appointed president of NetJets
subsidiary Executive Jet Management
in Cincinnati and chief operating officer
of its international aircraft management business. He was president of
Easy Energy Systems and had been
president of MD Helicopters.
Jack Arehart has been named
president of Delta TechOps MRO. He
was co-chief commercial officer at the
AAR Corp. and was an executive at
the Nordam Group and Timco Aviation Services.
David Chambers has become vice
president-sales in North America for
Atlanta-based SITA. He has been an
executive with Sabre Airline Solutions
and American Airlines.
Talha A. Zobair (see photo) has
been appointed vice president-tax
for the Falls Church, Virginia-based
Northrop Grumman Corp. He was senior tax counsel and director of global
taxes for Raytheon.
John T. Stankey has been named
to the board of directors of UPS. He is
group president/chief strategy officer
of AT&T.
Tom Z. Collina has become director of policy for the Washington-based
Ploughshares Fund. He was research
director of the Arms Control Association and has been executive director/
co-founder of the Institute for Science
and International Security and director of the global security program at
the Union of Concerned Scientists.
Bill Rossi (see photo) has been appointed Singapore-based vice president-sales and acquisitions for Nordic
Aviation Capital. He was Asia-Pacic
sales director for Embraer.
Paul Lithgow has been named chief
of advanced concepts for NovaWurks
Inc., Los Alamitos, California.
Wade Burchell has become aerospace market manager for the Su-

To submit information for the


Whos Where column, send Word
or attached text files (no PDFs) and
photos to: stearns@aviationweek.com
For additional information on
companies and individuals listed in
this column, please refer to the
Robert Molsbergen Aviation Week Intelligence Network
at AviationWeek.com/awin For
information on ordering, telephone
U.S.: +1 (866) 857-0148 or
+1 (515) 237-3682 outside the U.S.

perior Tube Co., Collegeville,


Pennsylvania.
Matthew Jennings (see photo) has been named Washingtonbased senior manager of public
affairs in the U.S. for Etihad Airways. He was head of legislative
Jets, Camarillo, California. He
affairs for the International Air
Transport Association.
Talha A. Zobair succeeds Dave Anderson,
who is now Part 145 accountAnton Khodakovsky has been
able manager.
appointed vice president for
Japan and South Korea for the
HONORS AND ELECTIONS
Volga Dnepr Group. He has been
Honda Aircraft Co. Presicommercial director and direcdent/CEO Michimasa Fujino
tor for Russia and the Commonhas been named to receive the
wealth of Independent States of
SAE International Clarence L.
the groups AirBridgeCargo.
Bill Rossi
Kelly Johnson Aerospace
Mark Mitchell (see photo),
Vehicle Design and Developwho has been CEO of Allianz
ment Award in late SeptemGlobal Corporate & Specialty in
ber. It recognizes individuals
Hong Kong, has been named
for contributions during
CEO for Asia, effective Oct. 1.
their career in the innovative
He will succeed Alexander Andesign and development of adkel, who is leaving the company.
vanced aircraft and/or spaceAndy Frost has become
craft. Fujino is responsible
chief commercial officer and
Matthew Jennings
for the research and developTom Wright the Dallas-based
ment, production, sales and
vice president-sales for North
marketing of the HondaJet.
America for Germany-based
Ron Price will receive the
Signalhorn. Frost has been vice
Award of Merit for North
president-strategic business deAmerica from the Londonvelopment. Wright was vice presibased Honorable Company of
dent for NewSat of Australia, vice
Air Pilots. He has been direcpresident of United Networks
Mark Mitchell
tor of the Abbotsford Interin Kuwait and sales director for
national Air Show in British
Comstream of San Diego.
Columbia that is now known
John Hurley (see photo) has
as Aerospace North America.
been appointed chief technology
Winners of the Guild Sword of
officer for Ryanair. He held a
Honor are John and Martha
similar position with Houghton
King of the King Schools of
Mifflin Harcourt plc.
San Diego. They are cited for
Henry Lisboa has become termaking aviation knowledge
ritorial director for Latin AmerJohn Hurley
clear, simple and fun for hunica for Dallas Airmotive. He was
dreds of thousands of pilots
director of sales for Heli-One.
and maintenance technicians
Brian Campbell (see photo)
all over the world. They chamhas been named vice presidentpion the cause of improving
global sales for StandardAero
risk management practices
Business Aviation, Tempe, Arizoof general aviation pilots and
na. He was vice president-worldactively motivate new pilots,
wide aftermarket MRO sales for
Beechcraft and had been an exBrian Campbell controllers and mechanics.
David McMillan has been
ecutive for Honeywell Aerospace.
elected chairman of the International
Jamie Harris has been appointed
Civil Aviation Organizations Task Force
New York-based vice president of the
on Risks to Civil Aviation Arising from
U.S. Group Charter division of Air
Conict Zones. He is chairman of the
Charter Service.
Flight Safety Foundation and was direcGreg Paxson has become Part 135
tor general of Eurocontrol. c
director of maintenance for Sun Air

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8 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 1, 2014

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ROTORCRAFT
AgustaWestland To Pay Fines
Finmeccanica-owned helicopter company AgustaWestland has agreed to
pay nes to halt Italian investigations
into charges of bribery involving the
sale of 12 VVIP helicopters to India.
Judges have agreed with prosecutors
that the company can settle the case by
paying a ne, the company said in an
Aug. 28 statement. The Italian branch
of AgustaWestland will pay an 80,000
($105,000) ne, while the U.K. branch
of the manufacturer will pay 300,000
in nes, while a further 7.5 million
will be conscated, the company said.
AgustaWestland says payment of the
nes is not an admission of wrongdoing.
Finmeccanica has been keen to put the
scandal of almost 18 months behind it
so it can continue with its ongoing reorganization, led by group CEO Mauro
Moretti. In January, the Indian government terminated the 560 million ($754
million) contract for the 12 helicopters
after the scandal emerged.

European Helo Operators Merge


European oil and gas helicopter operators Noordzee Helikopters Vlaanderen
(NHV) and Blueway Group are to
merge, in a move that will make the
group one of the largest European
rotorcraft operators. The merger announced on Aug. 28 will see Ostend,
Belgium-based NHV purchase Blueways stakes, owned by Reiten & Co.
Capital Partners and Helicopter Transportation Group. The joint company will
have 650 employees and a combined
eet of almost 60 helicopters.

AIR TRANSPORT

SIPA/NEWSCOM

The World
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Poor Satellite Positioning Under Investigation


Three different government agencies are investigating the Aug. 22 failure of a European variant of Russias Soyuz rocket to place two European navigation, positioning
and timing satellites into their intended circular orbit.
Instead, the first two fully operational Galileo satellites were delivered to an elliptical orbit and inclined at an unintended angle, owing to what appears to have been a
failure of the Soyuz rockets Fregat upper stage.
Developed by the European Space Agency (ESA) and prime contractor OHB System
of Germany, the 730-kg (1,600-lb.) Galileo satellites are under the control of ESA
facilities in Darmstadt, Germany. The agency said Aug. 26 it was assessing ways to
exploit the spacecraft in their off-target orbit, though the likelihood of salvaging the
mission appeared doubtful.
The European Commission (EC), which owns the Galileo constellation, has asked ESA
and commercial launch consortium Arianespace to provide details of the launch mishap
in Brussels this week. As one of Arianespaces biggest customers, the EC is participating
in an independent failure review established by ESA to identify the root cause of the incident, which followed what appeared to be a nominal launch from Europes Guiana Space
Center. The EC also has set up its own internal task force to monitor the inquiry.
Russian space agency Roscosmos says it is supporting the investigation and will supply
a list of measures needed to return the Soyuz to flight as quickly as possible. Roscosmos,
which is still reeling from a spate of failures plaguing its heavy-lift Proton vehicle, says
Moscow has formed its own independent commission to review the failed Soyuz launch.
In the meantime, the EC likely will be left to finance replacements for the two
satellites. Already running one year behind schedule due to technical issues with the
satellites and a crowded launch manifest at Arianespace, four Galileo spares were
expected to be ordered within the coming year. The EC now says it will need a total of
six spares to round out the planned 30-satellite constellation, which it hopes will be
completed before the end of the decade.

ICAO Conflict-Zone Projects


The International Civil Aircraft Organization (ICAO) task force on risks
to civil aviation arising from conict
zones has launched two immediate projects to better disseminate
regional safety concerns to airlines.
The group, which has met twice since
it was formed on July 29 following the
downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17
on July 17, says it is exploring how to
improve the Notice to Airmen system
to better share urgent and critical
conict-zone risk information, and
will pilot a new centralized system for
the prompt sharing of that information. ICAO launched the high-level

task force to address how this information can be collected effectively and
disseminated by fail-safe channels.
Meanwhile the Netherlands safety
board, which is conducting the official
investigation of the MH17 shootdown,
has yet to send its investigators to the
crash site in eastern Ukraine due to
the ongoing conict there. Although
additional investigation at the crash
site itself is preferable, it is not impossible to conduct an effective investigation based on other sources and to
produce a denitive nal report, the
board said in an Aug. 21 update on its

WorldMags.net

10 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 1, 2014

website. Once a secure and stable situation has been established, the Dutch
safety board will visit the location . . .
to verify the results of the investigation
from other sources and to conduct a
specic search for wreckage and other
vital pieces. Forensic data collected to
date includes the ight data and cockpit voice recorders, satellite images
and radar information.

Avic Starts MA60 Airline


Avic has set up a Cambodian operator
for its MA60 turboprop airliner. Cambodia Bayon Airlines, formally estabAviationWeek.com/awst

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For more breaking news, go to AviationWeek.com

Pilatus Prepares PC-24 for Early-2015 Flight

Switzerlands Pilatus Aircraft is preparing its PC-24 twin-engine business jet for a first flight
next spring after rolling out the first prototype last month. Powered by two 3,400-lb.-thrust Williams International FJ44-4A turbofans, the PC-24 is a superlight jet designed to fly four passengers 1,950 nm, with a maximum cruise speed of 425 kt., maximum altitude of 45,000 ft. and
the ability to operate from short runways
and unprepared airstrips. Maximum takeoff
weight is 17,650 lb. A large cargo door, a
popular feature of Pilatuss single-turboprop
PC-12, will be standard. In May, the company announced it has taken 84 orders for
the PC-24. The Swiss air force is to operate
one as a VIP transport for the Swiss Federal
Council. The flight-test program will involve
three prototypes, with certification and first
deliveries planned for 2017.

SPACE
Cubesats Wander Off

NASA

Flight controllers interrupted the


intermittent release of 28 Earth-observing cubesats from the International
Space Stations (ISS) Japanese Kibo
lab module following a spontaneous
deployment of two of the small satellites. The commercial NanoRacks
Small Satellite Deployer Mechanism
was powered down after the Aug. 23
incident, in which two Planet Labs
Flock 1B cubesats were spontaneously
ejected. The satellites are being tracked
and do not pose a collision threat to the
ISS, NASA spokesman Dan Huot says.
The intermittent deployments of the
Planet Labs Doves grew troublesome
after three ejections comprising six
smallsats on Aug. 19-20. The next two
deployment attempts failed, but there
was a successful release of another pair
on Aug. 21. More deployment attempts
failed, followed by the Aug. 23 incident.

The Flock 1B cubesats were among 32


small satellites delivered to the ISS for
deployments on July 16 onboard the Orbital Sciences Cygnus Orb-2 mission.

SpaceShipTwo Resumes Flight


The Scaled Composites-developed
SpaceShipTwo suborbital spaceplane
conducted a cold-ow pressurization
test of the vehicles modied rocket
motor system during a glide ight at
Mojave, California, on Aug. 28. The ight,
which followed release from the WhiteKnightTwo carrier aircraft, is a prelude to the imminent start of powered
ight tests using a new plastic-based
rocket motor fuel. The switch to the
new fuel, which also requires additional
changes to the propulsion system, was
announced in May by Virgin Galactic,
which plans to use SS2 for commercial
space tourism and science payload
ights from Spaceport America, New
Mexico, beginning in 2015.

OBITUARY

Retired NASA astronaut and USAF Col.


Steven R. Nagel died
Aug. 21 in Columbia,
Missouri, reportedly
after a long battle with
cancer. He was 67.
Nagel flew four space
shuttle missions, one
as a mission specialist and three as a pilot, including two as the commander, and
logged 723 hr. in orbit.
Nagel grew up in Canton, Illinois, where, a boyhood friend said, his
father bought an old Aeronca Champion to distract his son from building and cruising in hot rods. Bitten by the aviation bug, Nagel eventually earned aerospace and mechanical engineering degrees, joined the

AviationWeek.com/awst

DEFENSE
Illustrious Decommissioned
The U.K. Royal Navys last Invincibleclass aircraft carrier, HMS Illustrious, has been decommissioned. The
22,000-ton ship, which has been
used as a helicopter carrier since the
withdrawal of the Harrier GR9 eet
in 2010, was formally retired during
a ceremony in Portsmouth on Aug.
28. The ships helicopter-carrying
role will now be undertaken by HMS
Ocean, which has just undergone a
15-month 65 million ($108 million)
ret which included upgrades to the
ight deck, hangar and aviation facilities. The U.K. Defense Ministry wants
to preserve Illustrious as a tribute to
the personnel who served on all three
of the Invincible-class carriers. Bids
from private companies, charities and
trusts to secure her future are being
considered.

Air Force, flew as a test pilot and accumulated 12,600 hr. flying time.
Nagel became a NASA astronaut in 1979. His shuttle flights included two German Spacelab missions and deployments of satellites,
including the Gamma Ray Observatory.
His third flight brought unwanted attention in the pages of Aviation Week when the Atlantis touched down more than 600 ft. before the runway threshold marked on the dry lakebed at Edwards
AFB, California (AW&ST April 21, 1991, p. 25). Asked whether the
incident would hurt his chances of flying the shuttle again, Nagel
handled the question with aplomb: Being written up in Aviation
Week for a short landing was not one of my career goals, if thats
what you mean. Two years later, Nagel commanded another mission, a short gap between flights for an astronaut.
Nagel retired from the astronaut corps in 1995 and from NASA in
2011. Among his survivors is Linda Godwin, whom he married when
both were astronauts.

WorldMags.net

AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 1, 2014 11

PILATUS AIRCRAFT

lished on Aug. 21 as an Avic subsidiary,


simultaneously ordered 20 MA60s
from another Avic unit, Xian Aircraft.
Setting up Bayon will help consolidate
the relationship between Cambodia and
China, says Avic President Lin Zuoming, pointing to the political aspects of
the deal. The Chinese government is
quite possibly paying for at least part
of the cost of setting up Bayon. The
carrier will be based at Phnom Penh
and initially operate domestic services,
though it will later branch out to Vietnam, Laos and Thailand, says Avic. The
carriers rst two MA60s will arrive
this year and the rest are due by 2019.

Up Front

By Richard Aboulaa

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COMMENTARY

Bombardiers
Uncertain Future
Spring and summer setbacks leave many open
questions about the airframers direction
ombardier has endured a summer that can be characterized
as a series of serious cuts. The setbacks and wounds raise
difficult questions about the companys future.

BOMBARDIER

In late May, an engine failure grounded


the CSeries test eet. It remains
grounded. The company has not
announced a new certication schedule,
but hopes for a 2015 service entry are
fading fast. The grounding kept the
plane from ying to the Farnborough air
show. The CSeries (see photo) has had
minimal sales at every show since 2008.
This one was no exception.
Also in May, Republic Airways, one
of only three airlines of any note in the
CSeries orderbook, admitted it was reviewing its order, and that its 40 CS300
orders were no longer a priority.
Embraers E2 series, a CSeries
competitor, continued to bring in
scores of orders at Farnborough. Even
though its ve years younger than
the CSeries, the E2 orderbook is now
larger, and with better quality orders.
Bombardiers plans to build Dash 8
Q400 turboprops in Russia began to
unravel due to tensions over Ukraine
and Western sanctions. The Russian agreement was seen as a way to
restore the Q400s badly deteriorating market situation. The competing
ATR turboprop series has outsold the
Q400 by a greater than 4-1 ratio over
the past ve years.
Bombardier announced it may review
priorities for the all-new composite
Lear 85 business jet, once expected to
enter service in 2013 and rumored to
be facing serious technical problems.
It may be delayed, to allow Global
7000/8000 deliveries to begin on time.
Since the new Global series will not
enter service until 2016 and 2017,
respectively, the Lear 85 might not see

deliveries until later in the decade.


Also earlier this summer, the company
reorganized, eliminating 1,800 jobs, and
ring several key executives including
Bombardier Aerospace President and
Chief Operating Officer Guy Hachey and
commercial aircraft marketing head
Philippe Poutissou. This latest bloodletting follows the loss of many other key
CSeries personnel. Since airline customers like to see stability in an all-new aircraft program (particularly one from a
new producer in a segment), the changes
appear to be born of desperation rather
than strategy.
Some of the companys travails
result from bad luck, or are the
inevitable consequences of being a
rst adopter of new technology. But
most of the problems result from the
nancial obligations associated with
the CSeries. Developing a large jet was
always a big risk for a medium-size
aircraft prime. The CSeriess inevitable problems and delays are depriving
the companys other aircraft lines of
resources needed for product development. They are also damaging the
companys commercial competitiveness across the board.

WorldMags.net

12 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 1, 2014

Contributing columnist
Richard Aboulaa is
vice president of analysis at Teal
Group. He is based in
Washington.

Bombardiers litany of horrors this


summer augurs worse to come. The
companys debt ratios and balance
sheet are considerably weaker than
for any other major aerospace company. If there are further delays to the
CSeries, Bombardiers ability to bring
the jet to market may be questionable.
There is little margin for error, and
the companys refusal to provide a
new timetable is concerning.
If there is a silver lining in all of this,
its the CSeries itself. It offers some
impressive new technologies and was
the rst single-aisle jet to include
advanced composite primary structures and Pratt & Whitneys geared
turbofan. It should have been the rst
next-generation single-aisle to reach
the market, which could have been a
key advantage. And it still is the best
dedicated 110-130-seat jet.
But all network carriers need to
operate a large regional jet such as
an E2 and a 150-200 seat trunkliner
like an Airbus A320neo or Boeing 737
MAX. To incentivize network airlines
to operate a third type of single-aisle
jet for size optimization, Bombardier
needs to be much more commercially
aggressive than it has been orlooking at its nancesmore commercially
aggressive than it can afford to be.
Bombardiers new organization
divides its aerospace division into three
units: business aircraft, commercial aircraft, and aerostructures and engineering services. If, as some have theorized,
the reorganization is intended to allow
Bombardier the option of selling its
commercial unit, then theres the big
question of who would be able to buy it
and keep the CSeries going. China is the
only apparent possibility, but that country has no track record of ever paying
for meaningful aviation intellectual
property and has had ample opportunity to acquire it in the past.
When Bombardier launched the
CSeries, Airbus vowed to crush it. In
many ways, the CSeries has been a
test of strength for the jetliner duopoly.
By reacting with the reengined A320
and 737 series jets, and with help from
Embraer, the duopoly has effectively
struck back. If Bombardier falters with
the CSeries, and if it cant sell its commercial aerospace unit, the duopoly
will have prevailed again. c
AviationWeek.com/awst

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Commanders Intent

By Bill Sweetman

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Read Sweetmans posts on


our weblog ARES, updated daily:
AviationWeek.com/ares
bill.sweetman@aviationweek.com

COMMENTARY

Clausewitzless
The ghost behind the airpower debate
ts unlikely that the U.S. Air Force will be abolished in anyones
lifetime, whatever Robert Farley may think (AW&ST July 28,
p. 50). Former Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Norton Schwartz
and attorney Charles Blanchard (AW&ST Aug. 25, p. 50) competently defend the Air Forces operational record and doctrine in
their response.

capacity and the national willwas an


academically respectable way of saying that Lyndon Johnson and Robert
McNamara had stabbed the troops in
the back.
Clausewitzs view that warfare
inevitably increases in intensity, to the
maximum capacity of the belligerents,

CLAUSEWITZ.COM

But Farleys book, Grounded: The Case


for Abolishing the United States Air Force
(University Press of Kentucky, 2014),
makes a bigger argument: The case for
an independent air force is based on the
false assertion that airpower can win
wars on its own. The book exemplies a
toxic and irrational skepticism toward
airpower, and only airpower,
that pervades some military
thinking.
The founding philosophers of independent airpowerBritains Trenchard,
Americas Billy Mitchell
and Italys Giulio Douhet
shared a gut-level desire to
avoid a repeat of World War
I. Their heirs, World War IIs
bomber generals, promised
to defeat Germany and Japan from the air, almost unaided. This
did not happen. So what? At best, it is a
classic strawman argument to challenge 90-year-old claims that nobody
asserts today.
But lets dig a little deeper. Farleys
criterion for winning is whether
airpower succeeds at disarming the
enemya goal borrowed, with full and
frequent credit, from the early 19thcentury Prussian philosopher of war,
Carl von Clausewitz.
It would be easy to conclude from
contemporary American military writing that Clausewitz has been the go-to
guy on strategy since the appearance
of On War in 1832, but thats not the
case. Boot-centric warfare zealots
rediscovered him after Vietnam, when
the U.S. Army needed to explain its
defeat. Clausewitzs denition of military strengththe product of ghting

Modern military tools are much


more versatile in space, time and scale,
but conict is accordingly less likely
to fall inside the range of a disciplined
Prussian model. Thats one reason why
arguing over whether unaided airpower
can disarm the enemy is futile. In the
modern world, boots on the ground can
fail on that standard, too. Iraq has, by
conventional standards, been disarmed
twice since 1991. It does not seem to
have done much good.
But reverting to a land-sea duality
that predates the Age of Steam is an
absurdity, not only because air-land
and air-sea teaming are universal and
inevitable, but because of a stark fact:
Neither ground nor sea forces can operate without air and space, but airpower
can produce effectsreconnaissance,
airlift and attack, for instancewithout
ground or sea support.
And while abolition of the air force
is unlikely, the factions that
believe in the primacy of boots
on the ground are inuential.
Whether or not you love
the short-takeoff-and-verticallanding F-35B, there is no
doubt about its roots: Its
what happens when a combat
aircraft is shoehorned into the
doctrine and infrastructure of
a surface-warfare force.
The Long Range Strike
Bomber program was challenged at very high levelsUSMC Gen.
James Cartwright, as vice chairman of
the Joint Chiefs of Staff, advocated for
a common tactical-range unmanned
aircraft and pushed hard for the Conventional Prompt Global Strike concept
of non-nuclear warheads on ballistic
missiles. Both those ideas were awed.
CPGS has never overcome a show-stopper argument (how does the target or
anyone else know its not a nuke?) and
a sub-1,000-mi.-range system denes a
sanctuary zone for the adversary.
Early airpower theorists were not
just repelled by trench warfare. They
were reacting to brother officers who
variously saw airplanes as very longrange artillery, fast but imsy torpedoboats or horses that could jump over
really big hedges. They would be rightfully surprised to see similar attitudes
surviving a century later. c

sits well with advocates of a large army.


Go big or go home is not in Clausewitz, but its unlikely that he would have
greatly objected to that sentiment.
But Clausewitzs acolytes forget
what the Prussian sages world looked
like. Napoleonic land warfare, like the
wars of Greece and Rome, moved at
a walking pace, from the raising of
forces to the day of battle. Troops lived
off the land and often died on it (not
until World War 1 did combat kill more
soldiers than disease).
Once you raised it, a massed army
was wasting away, whether it fought or
not, or whether it advanced, retreated
or stood still. It was the least exible
weapon of the pre-nuclear ageas was
demonstrated in 1914 when the use-itor-lose-it logic of mobilization converted Bismarcks damned foolish thing in
the Balkans into catastrophe.

WorldMags.net

14 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 1, 2014

AviationWeek.com/awst

Inside Business Aviation

By William Garvey

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COMMENTARY

Success, Unhappily
Music to some; mayhem to others
hhhh. Hear that? Listen closely. That oh-so-faint hush is
the sound of Summer 2014 departing. And nowhere is that
whisper more welcome than in the backyards, on the patios and
at poolside within the tony enclaves of Long Islands South Fork,
and most particularly the East Hampton environs.

For those unfamiliar


with the geography and
the demographics, the
Hamptons on Long
Islands far eastern
end is the place where
many of the moneyed
at the far western end,
namely New York City,
escape during the summer months to gain
tans and the attention
of one another. Fabulously. However, getting
from one end to the othera roughly
100-mi. trekhas always been a maddening challenge of stalled expressways
and overcrowded trains.
But for the truly privileged, dating
back to Great Gatsby era, there has
always been a winged alternative. According to aviation lore, Leroy Grumman invented the Goose specically to
whisk the wealthy from their Manhattan counting houses to their estates
and retreats on Long Island.
That option continues, and you need
not be from the Houses of Morgan
or Harriman to exercise it. Shoreline
Aviation has been operating summer
weekend shuttles in Cessna Caravans
between Manhattans East 23rd Street
seaplane base (a single-airplane dock
on the East River) and East Hampton
Airport for decades. While the $550
one-way fare eliminates the Bolt Bus
crowd, there are usually enough of
those with the money and aversion to
hours-long road jams to ll the eight
passenger seats.
John Kelly, Shorelines director of
operations, reports the companys ve
oatplanes carried 5,000 passengers
AviationWeek.com/awst

EAST HAMPTON AIRPORT

on the shuttles this summer. And while


Shorelines quiet turboprops have
drawn some noise complaints over the
yearsface it, some people hate the
sound of any aircraftthe issue has
never been one of particular concern.
Thats changing, and not because
Shorelines Pratt & Whitney Canada
PT6s grew louder.
Rather blame Blade, an improving
economy and Igor Sikorsky.
Just as the Uber mobile app has
transformed auto-for-hire services in
cities around the world (and drawn the
wrath of taxi companies and drivers
globally), Blade is producing similar
results in the helicopter world. Also
a rideshare app, it lets users charter
helicopter ights to East Hampton and
then divide the costapproximately
$2,500-3,000with strangers who
book the unoccupied seats. Technically, Blade is a booking agent, whose
technology is integrated with the eet
and pilots of Liberty Helicopters.
Timing is everything, and Blade
seems to have arrived at the right
moment. The helicopter traffic to and
from East Hampton Airport this sum-

Business & Commercial


Aviation Editor-in-Chief
William Garvey blogs at:
AviationWeek.com
william.garvey@aviationweek.com

mer spiked upward. While the nal


numbers have yet to be tallied, Airport
Manager James Brundige says early
indications are that rotary-wing traffic
rose nearly 40%. While thats good
news for the charter providers, many
locals have a far different view.
While all powered aircraft generate noise, helicopters do so uniquely.
Helicopters make a different kind of
noise, an annoying noise, Brundige
says. And as a former helicopter
pilot with the U.S. Air Force and New
York Airways, he speaks with special
authority.
The East Hampton noise issue
reportedly nearly 800 complaints
were led over the July 4 weekend,
a fourfold increase over the previous
yearhas resulted in a series of town
meetings on the subject, and moves by
politicians to quiet the din.
Formerly, the charter helicopters
followed a route along the center of
Long Island, but political pressure
from U.S. Sen. Charles Schumer and
others caused FAA to alter the route
over Long Island Sound, a move vigorously but ineffectively opposed by local
operators and the Helicopter Association International. Still, the airport
is landlocked so at some point the
helicopters have to come ashore, and
those residing below complain about it.
Schumer and U.S. Rep. Tim Bishop,
who represents eastern Long Island,
now want that offshore helicopter
route extended around the islands
North Fork with the intent of minimizing the noise impact. Thats likely
to be opposed by both the operators,
since the extension will add considerably to ight time and costs, as well as
those whose residences are below the
new route.
In the end, the Town of East
Hampton, which owns the facility, may
apply the muffler. Brundige, who has
announced his retirement next month,
says key FAA grant assurances for
the airport are to expire in 2015. Once
that occurs, the airport could impose a
curfew and slot restrictions aimed specically at reducing helicopter activity
and the noise it generates.
For one xed-wing operator, curbing
the rotors is just deserts, since no one
bothered with us before. They messed
everything up. c

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AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 1, 2014 15

Airline Intel

By Brian Sumers

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Transport Editor-Americas
Brian Sumers can be reached at:
brian.sumers@aviationweek.com

COMMENTARY

Headed for Success


Despite domestic rivalry, Frontier should prot
from switching to an ultra-low-cost model
nder new ownership, Frontier Airlines shifted earlier this
year to become the third U.S. ultra-low-cost carrier. But
with rivals Allegiant Air and Spirit Airlines already established,
can Frontier succeed?

FRONTIER AIRLINES

The answer is likely yes, as the U.S.


market is not saturated with bargain
airlines as is Europes or even Asias. It
helps that what was once the most powerful of no-frills carriersSouthwest
Airlinesis acting more like a major network airline, with relatively high costs
and a focus on high-yield markets. And
with three other carriersUnited, Delta
and Americanalso chasing high-value
customers, there is room at the bottom.
Equally helpful is the fact that Spirit
and Allegiant, while consistently protable, remain niche carriers. Fort Lauderdale, Florida-based Spirit is growingit
intends to have 143 aircraft by 2021but
for now has 58 Airbus A320-family
aircraft, which the carrier ies mainly
on high-volume routes between major
North American cities. (Spirit intends to
have 65 aircraft by year-end.) Las Vegasbased Allegiant, meanwhile, not only
is still small (70 aircraft), but its niche
is ying to vacation destinations from
cities Frontier is unlikely to serve such
as Bismarck, North Dakota; Owensboro,
Kentucky; and Belleville, Illinois.
While the Frontier brand started in
1950, this iteration began in 1994 when
investors restarted the carrier in Denver

after Continental Airlines closed its hub


there. Frontier was a niche, mostly fullservice North American network airline
for nearly 20 years and developed a loyal
following in Denver. Republic Airways,
which had been a contract operator for
Frontier, bought the entire airline in
2009 when it was in bankruptcy, but sold
it last year to Indigo Partners. Republic
said it wanted to focus on regional business. Indigo is led by former America
West Airlines CEO William Franke.
The Indigo team has presided over
Frontiers newest strategy: focusing
on larger airports such as Washington
Dulles and Cleveland. After United said
earlier this year it would no longer operate a hub at Cleveland, Frontier added
14 destinations there, including Dulles,
Phoenix, Chicago OHare and New York
LaGuardia. United retains a hub at
Dulles, but Frontier is growing there too,
with plans for 18 more routes by midNovember.
The Washington network proves
why Frontiers model should succeed.
While it will serve some leisure destinations from Dulles, Frontier will also y
to many legacy airline hubs and former
hubs, including Minneapolis/St. Paul;

WorldMags.net

16 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 1, 2014

Atlanta; Chicago; Detroit; Cincinnati;


Charlotte, North Carolina; and Memphis, Tennessee. Fares are high in those
markets, making them ripe for Frontier
to undercut competitors and still prot.
For a two-day trip from Dulles to Atlanta
in October, Frontier shows up lowest,
with a roundtrip fare of $125or $330
less than Delta and United. Even accounting for extra fees for items such as
carry-on and checked bags and beverages, leisure customers will still save
money. The economics are similar for
other new Frontier routes between large
cities, such as OHare to Atlanta, OHare
to Denver and Dallas to Las Vegas.
Frontier can go into the biggest
market and carve off the lowest fare
pieces that the legacy airlines dont
want, says Hubert Horan, an Arizonabased aviation consultant. They will
take Wednesday afternoon and Saturday evening.
There are, however, concerns about
Frontiers big-airport strategy. Most
of the new ights operate between 3-5
times each week, probably not enough to
scare legacy competitors. But if Frontier
added two daily ights between Dulles
and Atlanta, United and Delta might
react differently, perhaps with bargain
fares and frequent-ier program promotions. Frontier, which recently made its
frequent-ier program less passengerfriendly, might not be able to respond.
Spirit is another concern. It does not
y to Cleveland and Dulles, but often
prefers major airports and has sizable
operations at OHare, Dallas/Fort Worth,
Houston Intercontinental and Detroit
Metro. Eventually, Spirit could decide it
wants to compete with Frontier in more
markets. Or Frontier, seeking its own
growth, may try to compete with Spirit
on key routes. That could spark difficulties. If all this competition ends up doing
is cannibalizing the existing markets for
ultra-low-cost carriers, that could lead to
trouble, says George Hamlin, a Fairfax,
Virginia-based aviation consultant.
But Spirit CEO Ben Baldanza told
Aviation Week he was not particularly
worried about Frontier. Frontier says
they want to be like us, Baldanza said.
But the reality is their costs are signicantly higher than ours. They have said
some things, but until we see them coming anywhere close to our costs, were
not really worried about Frontier. c
AviationWeek.com/awst

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In Orbit

By Frank Morring, Jr.

WorldMags.net

Senior Editor Frank


Morring, Jr., blogs at:
AviationWeek.com/onspace
morring@aviationweek.com

NASA

COMMENTARY

Howdy, Pardner
Push comes to pull in NASA space tech
ne of the hallmarks of the space policy introduced by the
Obama administration ve years ago was a shift from technology pull to technology push. Instead of setting out to invent

new hardware or repurpose old for a


particular space missionthe pull
NASA shifted to a program of developing technology that could enable unspecied missionsthe push. The plan
also included a $1 billion-a-year budget,
which has never materialized. That is
forcing managers to look for new ways
to send their maturing technologydevelopment experiments into space,
and they are nding that partnerships
are one good approach.
The technology program has been
starved for funds from the get-go
serving as a cash cow on Capitol Hill
and in internal NASA funding battles.
With more continuing-resolution funding on the way, at least through the
end of the year, the Space Technology
Mission Directorate (STMD) is likely to
get something like a $575 million annual
spending level into the scal year that
starts Oct. 1, a lot of it tied up in congressionally mandated small-business
set-aside programs. That is well short
of what it will take to fully fund the
STMDs ambitious portfolio of technology pushes. For Mars exploration
alone, the directorate is trying to push
technologies that include communications and navigation, surface power, life
support, in-situ resource utilization and
entry, descent and landing (EDL).
The sky-crane approach to EDL
that put the 1-ton Curiosity rover down
on the surface two years ago is at the
upper limit of its capability. That system
used a platform hovering on retrorock-

ets to lower the rover to the surface on


cables, after a heat shield and supersonic
parachute system slowed it enough for
the sky-crane to stay aloft. For landing
the house-sized habitats and supply
warehouses that would be prepositioned
to sustain humans on Mars, NASA is
studying a saucer-shaped decelerator
instead of parachutes for slowing large
payloads to the Mach 2.5-3 range. At that
point, supersonic retropropulsion would
take over to lower them to the surface.
To stretch his budget for EDL work,
Michael Gazarik, associate NASA
administrator for space technology, is
turning to the private sector for help.
STMD engineers working on advanced
Mars EDL are using data on supersonic
retro-propulsion generated by SpaceX
in its Falcon 9 yback rst-stage testing
as a substitute for government-funded
ight tests. NASA also is starting a
project with Orbital Sciences Corp. to
use its unmanned Cygnus commercial
cargo carrier (see photo) as a staging platform for reentry tests of an
inatable hypersonic decelerator with
applications at Mars.
The SpaceX reusable booster is basically in the regime were interested in,
Gazarik says. Were working a Space
Act agreement to obtain the data sets.
SpaceX hopes to begin reusing its
launch-vehicle hardware as a way to
save on the cost of space access, and it
has tested its ability to restart Falcon
9 rst-stage engines and control the
stage to a soft vertical tail-down land-

WorldMags.net

18 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 1, 2014

ing. Early results have been promising,


and the company plans to begin testing
dry-land touchdowns instead of lowering the stage into the ocean.
We actually had a project ready
to stand up, and when we understood
what SpaceX was doing, there was no
reason to spend all the money there,
Gazarik says.
Similarly, STMD is working with
Orbital Sciences to test an inatable
decelerator in an orbital upgrade of the
Inatable Reentry Vehicle Experiment
(IRVE-3) own on a sounding rocket
from Wallops Island, Virginia, in July
2012. The company has been looking
for additional uses of Cygnus (AW&ST
July 22, p. 36).
In the hypersonic regimegreater
than Mach 5we have just started
a project with Orbital to go consider
ying a hypersonic inatable, says Gazarik. You may remember IRVE-3; its a
sounding rocket. This is that inatable,
umbrella-looking shape. Were looking
at ying such a device off Cygnus before
it comes back and returns to Earth.
The private sector is just one area
where STMD is looking for partners. It
is working with the Defense Department
on laser communications, which hold the
potential for high-bandwidth data links
from space, and with the Energy Department on advanced energy-storage techniques. Gazarik is working with a counterpart at the European Space Research
and Technology Center in Noordwijk,
Netherlands, and more closely with the
other mission directorates in his own
agencyhis customers.
The Science Mission Directorate has
included STMD technologies as possible
components on its next Discovery-class
space science mission, offering incentives for principal investigators to use
them. And in a reversal of its original
technology-push objective SMTD is
working closely with the Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate on the proposed Asteroid Redirect
Mission, particularly in the electric propulsion thrusters and large deployable
solar arrays that would be needed for
the high-power Solar Electric Propulsion
system that the mission has designed
at least partiallyto pull, as an essential
ingredient to human exploration beyond
low Earth orbit. So push merges with
pull in the face of funding reality. c
AviationWeek.com/awst

Washington Outlook

Edited by Jen DiMascio

WorldMags.net

Managing Editor-Defense,
Space & Security Jen DiMascio blogs
at: AviationWeek.com/ares
jennifer.dimascio@aviationweek.com

COMMENTARY

Airing Disputes
NTSB, UPS spar over release of press statements
ven if information is publicly accessible, should it be deliberately circulated? That is the question surrounding the
National Transportation Safety Boards decision to oust UPS
and its pilots union, the Independent Pilots Association (IPA),
from the investigation into the August 2013 crash of UPS Flight
1354. On the eve of the one-year anniversary of the Aug. 13 Airbus A300-600 crash that killed two people, IPA issued a press
REUTERS/LANDOV FILE PHOTO
release calling the accident a
fatigue crash, citing publicly
available information from
the cockpit voice recorders,
and lobbying for cargo airlines
to be included in new fatigue
rules that apply only to passenger-carrying airlines. The
same release was posted on
Air Cargo Worlds website.

The NTSB viewed the release as a


breach of a long-standing rule that it
must clear all information publicly disseminated by parties to investigations.
The board was preparing to notify the
IPA of its view when UPS issuedon
the Air Cargo World websitea response similar to IPAs to what it saw as
a smear on the cargo companys name.
The statements by IPA and UPS
were similar to publicly available documents they had submitted to the NTSB
in May detailing their own analyses of
the crash causes. But according to the
safety board, the use of press releases
and web comments crossed a line.
Theres a real substantive difference, says NTSB spokesman Peter
Knudson. The difference is working
within the process as opposed to going
outside it. While rare, parties do occasionally get booted from an investigationthe most recent case involved the
Association of Commuter Rail Employees being removed from the New York
train crash investigation last December
because of information revealed in a
press conference. For aviation, however,
AviationWeek.com/awst

The NTSBs nal conclusions


regarding the UPS Flight 1354
crash are expected on Sept. 9.
the ground rules are well understood,
leading to speculation that one or both
parties may be in a public relations spin
mode ahead of the NTSBs nal conclusionsexpected on Sept. 9. c

GETTING REAL
Crisis has a way of spurring action,
even in the most sluggish of multinational groups. As Russia continues
inching into Ukraine, this weeks NATO
Summit in Cardiff, Wales, may address
some real changes for the 65-year-old
organization. Outgoing Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen, anticipates adopting a readiness action plan
to pre-position supplies and assistance
in Eastern Europe.
Moving past the perennial discussion
of member nations contribution to the
NATO cost-sharing pool, developments
to watch for include the establishment
of a stronger, persistent rotating
presence in Poland as well as a pos-

sible trust fund to support Ukraines


military logistics, cyberdefense and
other military costs. Sens. John McCain
(R-Ariz.) and Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.)
see Russias cross-border invasion into
Ukraine as a call to the U.S. and Europe
to begin providing intelligence and
defensive weapons to Ukraine, including anti-armor systems.
Air Force Lt. Gen. (ret.) Ralph Jodice,
who commanded NATO Allied Air Command headquarters in Turkey and led
air ops during the conict in Libya, says
NATO can appear to move slowly, but
that changes rapidly once it reaches a
consensus. The summit should continue
to build on a history of sharing assets
such as F-16s, Sea Sparrow missiles and
the Patriot missile defense system, so it
is prepared not just for recent aggression by Russia but also the confrontation with the Islamic State in Iraq and
Syria (ISIS). If we had to move some
for another potential threat, we could do
so pretty quickly, Jodice says. c

SHOCKED, SHOCKED
News that NASAs Space Launch
Systems rst launch may come as late
as November 2018, nearly a year after
its previously scheduled date, is not
playing well among Republican critics
of the Obama administrations space
policy on Capitol Hill. Although NASA
officials remain optimistic that the
heavy-lift rocket could take off closer
to its December 2017 launch date, a
mathematical model that considers
development risks is predicting the
later launch (see page 27). In a letter to
NASA Administrator Charles Bolden,
Reps. Lamar Smith (Texas) and Steven
Palazzo (Miss.), who lead the House
Science Committee and its space
subcommittee, argue that the administration has chronically underfunded
SLS and allude to another potential
delay of the Orion multipurpose crew
vehicle, which had also been slated to
launch in 2017. It appears as though
the administration is starving these
programs of funding and preventing
important development work with the
goal of pushing back schedules, write
Smith and Palazzo. The congressmen
are seeking answers to a number of
questions by Sept. 10, including when
the administration knew the 2017 date
might slip. c

WorldMags.net

AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 1, 2014 19

MISSILE DEFENSE

WorldMags.net

Under Cover

Overall, Iron Dome missile deection


proves effective through 50 days of conict
Alon Ben David Tel Aviv

ut of the Israelis conict with Palestinians in the Gaza


Strip, at least one success story has emerged: Israels Iron
Dome counter-rocket system. With 735 interceptions of
rockets and mortar bombs, Iron Dome demonstrated improved
performance, scoring an almost 90% success rate.

ZEEV STEIN

Iron Dome has intercepted more than


735 rockets and failed to catch 70
of them. Still, no casualties were
reported in areas protected
by the counter-rocket
and mortar system.

WorldMags.net

20 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 1, 2014

Of 4,594 rockets and mortars red


from the Gaza Strip in 50 days of conict, Iron Dome failed to intercept only
70 rockets where the system was deployed. One Israeli civilian was killed
by a rocket, three other civilians and
nine servicemen were killed by mortars, but there were no fatalities in the
areas protected by the Iron Dome. The
operational results appear to contrast
with an ongoing academic debate in
the U.S. about the systems efficacy.
This is an unprecedented and signicant strategic achievement, Israeli
Defense Minister Moshe Yaalon told
Aviation Week. Iron Dome almost negated Hamass [the Islamic Resistance
Movements] medium- and long-range
capabilities, added a senior Israeli air
force officer. Those 735 rockets intercepted represent dozens of Israeli casualties whose lives were saved.
Foreseeing the conflict, Israel deployed its six batteries of Iron Dome
around urban centers in the days prior
to launching its offensive into Gaza,
dubbed Operation Protective Edge,
on July 8. In the following days, Rafael Advanced Defense Systems, Iron
Domes developer and main manufacturer, delivered three just-completed
additional batteries. With nine batteries deployed and with thousands
of intercepting missiles, Israels main
cities were ready to meet the shower
of rockets launched by Hamas and the
Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) from
Gaza. During the ghting, a 10th battery was delivered but not deployed,
due to shortage of qualied staff.
On the Palestinian side, Hamas and
PIJ amassed 9,000 rockets, mostly
short-range 107-mm types. The arsenal
includes about 1,000 122-mm rockets
with a range of 45 km (28 mi.) and about
200 M75 8-in. rockets with a range of 75
km. The Palestinian forces also possess
several dozen indigenous versions of
Syrian 302-mm rockets, dubbed R160,
with a range of more than 100 km.
Only a small part of that stockpile
were standard serial-production rockets smuggled into Gaza from Egypt.
Since the Egyptian army, headed by
Abd Al-Fatah A-Sisi, took rule of the
country in July 2013, Egypt has destroyed most of the smuggling tunnels
dug from its territory into Gaza. As a
result, the Palestinian militant organizations had to resort to improvised
indigenous production of rockets and
mortars.
Those improvised rockets demonAviationWeek.com/awst

WorldMags.net

strated low accuracy and an unstable


trajectory, sometimes confusing the operators of the Iron Dome, who intercept
only the rockets threatening to strike
populated areas. We shortly realized
we cannot trust the Palestinian rockets
to perform a standard ballistic trajectory, says Yossi Drucker, director for
Air Superiority Systems at Rafael.
Out of the vast number of rockets red, only 25% were effective and
threatened to hit populated areas, a recurring ratio in previous conicts with
Gaza or Lebanon. That allowed Iron
Dome to disregard most of the rockets.
In most interceptions, a single Tamir
interceptor was launched against each
incoming rocket. In cases where the
rockets were aimed at more densely
populated areas, two interceptors were
allocated, each with a cost of $50,000.
While Iron Dome could be operated
in a fully automated mode, the air force
has chosen to operate it in a man-inthe-loop mode, requiring the operators
to decide within a few seconds whether and how to intercept. That policy
proved to be effective, allowing most
of Israel to maintain normal life with
minimal interference. One operators
error, however, disrupted international
air traffic to Israel for up to a day and
a half.
Throughout the conflict, Hamas
made an effort to strike Israels BenGurion International Airport. On
July 22, as a rocket was fired at the
airport, the Iron Dome operator decided not to intercept it, fearing that
the interception might jeopardize civilian aircraft that were approaching
for landing. The rocket landed 1 mi.
away from the airport, and hours later
the FAA ordered U.S. airlines to halt
ights to Israel. A number of European
airlines followed and canceled ights
to Tel Aviv.
In response, Israel rushed to reassure American and European authorities that the rocket re and Iron Dome
activity posed a negligible threat to
civil aviation. Based on an [Israeli air
force] study, the chance of an aircraft
ying in Israeli airspace being hit by a
random rocket red from Gaza is one
in a billion, said Giora Rom, head of Israels Civil Aviation Authority (ICAA),
in a letter sent to all international aviation authorities. In addition, ICAA has
rerouted incoming and outgoing air
traffic from Ben Gurion into corridors
separated from the area where Iron
Dome operates. All airlines resumed
AviationWeek.com/awst

ights to Israel after 36 hr., with the


exception of Korean Air.
Without passing judgment on the
Iron Dome operators decision, the system could have intercepted this rocket
without posing any risk to air traffic,
says Drucker. The system is designed
to operate in the presence of air traffic.
The chances of an Iron Dome interceptor hitting an aircraft are even smaller
than the chances of an aircraft being hit
by an incoming rocket.
Iron Domes success against medium- and long-range rockets did
not slacken Palestinians attempts to
strike Israel. But as the Palestinians
stockpile diminished, they started
directing most of the re against the
villages bordering Gaza, where Iron
Dome is not deployed. Even there,
Iron Dome managed to intercept, for
the rst time, 10 mortar bombs red
at the town of Sderot.
While the success of Iron Dome
was evident in the small number of
losses and damage to the Israeli rear,
some critics continue to claim that
Iron Dome fails in most interception
attempts. The most notable is Massa-

chusetts Institute of Technology physicist Ted Postol, who presented a study


claiming that Iron Dome succeeds in
only 5% of interception attempts.
These allegations are ludicrous,
says Uzi Rubin, former director of
Israels Missile Defense Organization.
If it was true, how come that after
4,000 rockets red at Israel there are
no fatalities in the areas protected by
Iron Dome? A similar number of rockets were red by Hezbollah during the
2006 war in Lebanonand then, without the Iron Dome, there were scores
of Israeli casualties.
The system received another vote of
condence in the U.S. Congress, which
approved an additional $225 million
funding for Iron Dome on Aug. 1. The
budget is directed toward restocking
Iron Dome interceptors and brings
U.S. funding for the system to a total
of $1.3 billion.
But there is also a curse in the Iron
Domes success, as a senior defense
source put it: It creates an image
where the Israeli side appears unharmed and makes it much harder to
explain to the world why we ght. c

Reprieve and Refocus


MDA is nally crafting procurement strategy
for new kill vehicle
Amy Butler Huntsville, Alabama, and Washington
wo months after a long-awaited
successful intercept for the Pentagons multibillion-dollar GroundBased Missile Defense (GMD), the U.S.
Missile Defense Agency is now turning
its effortsand resourcesto evolving
and improving the missile shields kill
vehicle. Prior to the success, program
advocates were in a potentially existential ght after more than ve years of
test ops.
At issue was the lackluster performance of the GMDs kill mechanism,
the Raytheon Exoatmospheric Kill Vehicle (EKV), a unitary round designed to
collide with warheads in space as they
career toward their targets. In an exclusive interview, MDA Director Vice Adm.
James Syring lays out his plans for addressing shortcomings in the current
EKV design as well as plans for a re-

WorldMags.net

placement system to be elded in 2025.


The EKV was to blame for two of
the failed intercept attempts of the
improvement-infused Ground-Based
Interceptor (GBI) dubbed the
CE-II (for Capability Enhancement).
The CE-II is the third iteration of the
kill vehicle (earlier versions included
the prototype CE-0 and CE-I) and includes xes for obsolescence related
to the processor and improvements to
process more targetspotentially useful against countermeasures that are
anticipated in enemy missile designs.
During the rst CE-II failure in January 2010, the divert and attitude control system (DACS), which thrusts the
round toward its target, malfunctioned
due to defective lockware and the early
shutdown of the powerful Sea-Based
X-band radar due to a configuration

AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 1, 2014 21

MISSILE DEFENSE

WorldMags.net
building an aircraft as they ew it.
The priority now, directed last year
by Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel (related to North Koreas saber-rattling) is
to deploy 14 more EKV-tipped GBIs
bringing the total eet to 44in 2017.
Syring is focusing the agency to
fulll this requirement at least in part
with a new, more reliable EKV CE-III.
It is [more directed], not rush and get
something out there that is not tested,
because I have got a good conguration now that I am comfortable with,
Syring said in the interview. The next

vehicle will be rst dependent on testing, rst dependent on proper development, rst dependent on system engineering, [and] on needed producibility
and reliability, Syring said.
The procurement strategy and
funding is being hashed out now as
the Pentagon crafts the fiscal 2016
budget that is due to go to Congress
early next year. Thus Syring declined
to outline a program start date or an
initial elding timeline. Debate is ongoing in the missile-defense community
about how fast to pace the effort and
whether Syring is proceeding with
too much caution. Too slow a program exposes the elding to being
outpaced by the threat, which is
growing, according to one government official. Industry sourcesas
alwayssuggest the system could
be elded faster.
We are thinking through this
very hard. I have spent a lot of time
on this. Industry is always wanting to
go faster, Syring said. It is my job
to balance that risk and make sure
we dont jump [without] the proper
system engineering on the solution.
Syring says the next official GMD
ight-test is slated for 2016; a total of
seven are planned before 2024. Each
ight trial costs around $200 million.
However, industry sources suggest
funding could be added for a ight trial
to test xes to the DACS on the EKV
CE-II next year. Syring did not comment on this, because it is part of the
scal 2016 budget debate.
He is quick to note that a new EKV
is not a silver bullet. Syring plans to
continue a focus on improving the
missile defense architectures ability
to discriminate between actual targets and countermeasures (AW&ST
Aug. 5, 2013, p. 66). These efforts include building a new Long-Range Discrimination Radar for emplacement in
Alaska and continued testing with the
MTS-B and, eventually, the MTS-C infrared balls on the Reaper unmanned
aircraft as an airborne, early-warningand-target-tracking layer.
Im not tying to balance all of the
risk on the EKV. It is a spread of risk
across the kill chain, and of not trying
to do too much with one item, Syring
said. He added, You have got to have
the kill-chain capability to balance the
risk across the program. It is not that
we assume this huge technical risk
with a new GBI and a new EKV that
needs to do everything. c
U.S. MISSILE DEFENSE AGENCY

error (AW&ST April 12, 2010, p. 26).


In the second instance, what has been
dubbed a new physics phenomenon
of high-frequency vibrationssensed
for 10 years but not understood until
nowdrove a malfunction of a highly
sensitive inertial measurement unit
(IMU) on the kill vehicle.
The problemcalled a track gate
anomaly because the sensors tracks
on the targets in space shifted as a result of the vibrationswas originally
observed in 2001 but until 2005 was
thought to be the result of electromagnetic interference. It would
take a few more years before engineers began to understand that
vibrations from the DACS were
prompting an updated IMU (which
was more sensitive than originally
understood) to perturb its ability
to track warhead targets in space,
Syring said. The anomaly is now
recognized and the x was proven
in the June flight test, he adds.
There is a long, storied history of
reliability of the GBI, Syring said.
What we haveI think we demonstratedis pretty good. We can
get better.
Syring acknowledges the long, storied history of the reliability problems
of the GBI, which is managed by Boeing. But he defends the way ahead by
noting that all eight ight-test failures
are understood. Three of them are in
congurations now deployed (but with
xes identied), and ve of the eight
failures were experienced by the earliestBlock-0 prototype design.
Thus his focus is turning to what is
called the EKV CE-III, an updated kill
vehicle designed from the ground up
to emphasize reliability and producibility. Todays designs are virtually handmadeexposing the system to human
errorbecause they are essentially
productionized copies of prototype designs, many with incremental improvements driven by past test failures. In
2002, when President George W. Bush
directed that GBIs with the EKV be deployed as an early alert force against
increasingly capable North Korean
ICBMs, the kill mechanism was still
nascent. And the decision forced the
typical design cycle to be cut short,
Syring told an audience at the 17th Annual Space and Missile Defense symposium in Huntsville, Alabama, last
month. Some capability [right] now
was better than waiting, Syring said,
but it was as though designers were

MDA Director Vice Adm. James


Syring says a new kill vehicle will be
elded atop GBIs by late 2025.
eight GBIs to be purchased from Boeing will include the CE-II EKV design.
Eventually, the so-called CE-III would
replace all older CE-Is in the fleet.
That is the objectivethat kill vehicle
. . . will go forward into any new [GBIs]
that we buy at some point and then . . .
we will pull the CE-Is, and put the new
kill vehicle on top.
Reliability of the 24 CE-Is in silos
today was called into question during
a July 2013 ight test when one of the
rounds on alert failed a test intercept
due to a bad battery, which prevented
kill-vehicle separation from the booster;
this was in a test scenario that had already been done in the past. Hagel directed the test as a deterrent against
increasingly bellicose rhetoric from
Kim Jong-un, then the new leader in
Pyongyang. The trial, however, was a
flop, and forced the Army to shift its
shot doctrine to dedicate more interceptors per target to guarantee a kill
(reducing the number of targets that
todays nascent eet can guard against).
Unlike the rush to elding of a decade
ago, the EKV CE-III will draw from existing technologies and undergo rigorous development; all rounds are slated
for elding in 2025. The redesigned kill

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22 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 1, 2014

AviationWeek.com/awst

DEFENSE

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Seeking Dogghts

The Pentagon will increasingly rely on direct


and indirect competition in acquisition
Michael Bruno Washington
he most powerful acquisition ofcial in the Pentagon is about to
give contractors what they want
and fearthe most: more competition.
Last week, the undersecretary of
defense for acquisition, technology
and logistics, Frank Kendall, unveiled
new guidance to his 151,000-plus
workforce that greatly expands the
range to which the Pentagon forces
competition in its contracting. The
guidance comes after years of stalling or declining competition rates
in Defense Department acquisition,
but starts to make good on Kendalls
promise just a few months ago to measurably boost competition (AW&ST
June 23, p. 24).
Given the declining trend in competition in the department and in light
of todays limited resources, we must
maximize our use of direct and indirect competition, Kendall says.

indirect, is the most effective motivator for industry


to reduce costs and improve
performance.

Pentagon acquisition
czar Frank Kendalls
latest policy changes look
to boost competition.

REUTERS/LANDOV FILE PHOTO

ROCKWELL COLLINS

But in an era of so-called sequestration and relative austerity, the combination of far fewer new programs to bid
on plus increased competition simply
means more risk to the bottom line. It
also shifts more power to the purchaser,
the Pentagon. While defense officials

Kendalls overarching
goal is to instill a culture of
continuous competition
in a sector where monopoly
and duopoly providers have
all but been selected to come forward.
Examples include Lockheed Martin
with the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, and
General Dynamics and Huntington Ingalls in shipbuilding. To achieve this, he
is calling on three more of his favorite
management tools: mining data, providing examples, and holding
people accountable.

The primary F-35 helmet


system from a Rockwell
Collins-Elbit Systems
subsidiary did not go well
until rival BAE Systems
was tapped.
In short, the Pentagon
acquisition czars guidance
revolves around ve efforts:
Quarterly progress reports and more robust use
of business intelligence
tools.
Publication of a Competition Handbook, A Practical Guide for Program
Managers in September.
Soliciting feedback from companies
that ultimately decided against bidding on contracts where only oneor
nonedid.
Expanding use of request-for-information or sources sought notices
to industry ahead of nalizing known
non-competitive deals.
Better tracking and high-level
follow-up of competition-promoting

Contractors cry for the ability to


compete for new awards when they are
trying to land new business or grow
existing offerings, but competition
quickly becomes anathema once they
do. In lobbying against it, companies
cite the cost of formal bid proposals
and stress that there is less efficiency
than might be found in long-term contracts, such as multiyear awards.
AviationWeek.com/awst

consistently deny a war on profits


and stress the need for a robust defense
industry, they readily acknowledge they
are seeking more inuence and control
over what they buy and how.
Why is competition important? Because it works, the new guidelines say,
citing congressional support harking
back to the Competition in Contracting Act of 1984. Competition, direct or

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AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 1, 2014 23

DEFENSE

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steps that were required and offered


by program officials in the past when
they submitted justication and approval documents.
Interestingly, beyond direct competition in deciding awards, the Pentagon will utilize the prospect of future,
potential work to promote indirect
competition. Examples include the
Adaptive Engine Technology Demonstration (AETD) program toward fuelefficient, high-thrust powerplants, the
Air Force-Navy Air Dominance Initiative (ADI) to create a generational
shift in U.S. air superiority, and the
F-35 helmet-mounted display system.
The AETD would take the existing
work with industry partners and run
a competition to take the successful
contractor(s) through technology development based on the design successes of subsystems, the guidance
explains. At the end of this phase,
another competition would be run to
take one contractor through engineering and manufacturing development,
with the contractors making decisions
about exiting the industry based on
the results of the competition.
The ADI, meanwhile, could lead
to a prototyping program based on
the results of the concept-definition
effort. But perhaps the best illustration of indirect competition comes via
the helmet program, which was exclusively Vision Systems Internationals
until BAE Systems was tapped for an
alternative.
The approach was designed to generate performance and cost benets
through a second source that could
replace the original vendor, which was
experiencing technical challenges, the
guidance says. The competition strategy provided potential cost savings
and technical advances that would not
have been realized if the second source
were not introduced.
The guidance is unlikely to lead to
immediate effects in industry, but almost certainly will play a shaping function as the sector goes through postwar, sequestration-era changes. In a
note to financial investment clients,
RBC Capital Markets analysts noted
that the policy includes ve specic
actions to improve the competitive environment, although they dont appear
to be sea changes, in our view.
Nonetheless, the National Defense
Industrial Association called it a sufciently important memo to warrant
a special email to its members. c

You Snooze, You Lose


How Northrop Grummans bomber bid nearly
derailed before it was even submitted
Amy Butler Washington
ompetitions for Pentagon programs have always been cutthroat. But with fewer of them
expected in the next decade, each
single program is increasingly viewed
as a must-win for top Pentagon contractors, driving them to be more creative in their push for a competitive
advantage.
So much so that bids dont only
center on a designs technical prowess, system engineering and program
management attributes. More and
more, in a quest to get any edge possible, contractors are beeng up their
lobbying efforts. And, some are proving better at this than others.
A case in point is how Northrop
Grumman, one of the Pentagons top
contractors, was politically outfoxed
by rivals Boeing and Lockheed Martin,
who temporarily scored a tax-incentive
leg up in the duel to build stealthy, new
bombers for the U.S. Air Force.
Owing to Lockheed Martins notoriously effective political prowess, the
company nearly scored a half-billion
dollars in economic incentives from
the California legislature, which could
have translated to a commensurate
discount in its teams bid for the program, due to the Air Force shortly. Such
an advantage could have tipped the
scales in favor of the Boeing/Lockheed
Martin design on price alone, sending
Northrop Grumman into panic mode

this summer. As the manufacturer of


the stealthy B-2, Northrop Grumman
views the bomber program as critical to
its future as a top Pentagon airframer.
At issue was California law AB
2389, signed by Gov. Jerry Brown July
10, 2014. Lockheed Martins lobbyists
quietly and successfully campaigned
for the measure for a year. As a result,
the law offered $420 million of incentives specically to a subcontractor
providing jobs for work on a special
access program, clearly referring to
the secretive bomber project. Lockheed Martin is the subcontractor to
Boeing on the bomber bid. Northrop
Grumman is proposing a design as a
prime contractor, excluding it from the
potential tax advantages offered in the
legislative package.
This put Northrop in an embarrassing pickle, as the company was blindsided by legislators from its own back
yard. The measure was sponsored in
the lower house by Democrat Assemblyman Steve Fox and also Republican
state Sen. Steve Knight, both from the
Palmdale, area. Palmale is home to the
Air Forces secretive Plant 42, where
both Lockheed Martin and Northrop
Grumman have operations; Northrops
have grown substantially in recent
years likely to support its work building the Air Forces secret, stealthy RQ180 surveillance aircraft.
We invited all of the players in-

TED CARLSON/FOTODYNAMICS

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24 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 1, 2014

AviationWeek.com/awst

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volved. Northrop did not take us up on


this, said one source in the California
legislature, adding that Lockheeds engagement was swift and decisive.
Lockheed had pounced on the idea
that Northrop might not build the
bomber if it won in California, but
Northrop officials say they do intend
to build it in Palmdale, a stones throw
from Lockheed Martins famed Skunk
Works facility.
Time, however, was of the essence.
The Air Force announced that its classified request for proposals (RFP)
for the new, stealthy bomber was
released July 10. Typically, proposals
are due about 90 days from issuance
of an RFP, though service spokesman Ed Gulick declined to say when
they would be due. This program is
shrouded in secrecy and officials have
been selectively citing classication
in providing scant public details. The
service plans to buy 80-100 bombers,
each costing less than $550 million
to build, making the stakes high for
contractors in this duel. But bottom
line, Northrop needed quick legislative relief in order to include the same
discount in its bomber proposal and
meet the RFP deadline.
Northrop, as a result, took a page
out of Lockheeds book and set up
camp for weeks lobbying legislators in
California for access to the same advantages offered only to Lockheed, as
a subcontractor, in a separate bill. At
the 11th hour of the legislative session,
the governor signed a bill offering the
same deal to Northrop.
Northrop Grumman is pleased the
California legislature passed legislation that supports aerospace workers in the state. This is a victory for
fairness, the aerospace industry and

all Californians, said Tim Paynter, a


company spokesman.
The measurepassed Aug. 14 by
the legislature on the eve of its recesslevels the playing eld with the
tax package by applying the benets
equally to prime and subcontractors
and averting what could have been yet
another thorny Air Force procurement
train wreck. The service has been on
the defensive since its clumsy handling
of the Combat Search and Rescue
replacement helicopter and Boeing
KC-135 replacement programs.
Northrop supporters claimed that
applying such large tax credits to one
contractor and not another would have
been unfair. And though company officials would not say whether they were
exploring legal options in the event the
tax incentive package wasnt applied to
its own bid, it is highly likely Northrop
would have pursued a remedy in court.
Underscoring what a near miss this
was for Northrop, top Pentagon officials had a different view of the issue,
signaling that Northrop Grumman
could have been left out in the cold
without legislative help from Sacramento. The fact that one company
receives a tax break from the state in
which it is situated is possibly a competitive advantage for that company,
but it is not an unfair competitive
advantage because it was not given
to that company by the Air Force,
says Maureen Schumann, a Pentagon
spokeswoman. It does not have to be
equalized. The general rule is that an
agency is not required to equalize the
competitive advantage a firm might
enjoy by virtue of its own particular
circumstances so long as the advantage is not the result of preference or
unfair action by the agency. c

Up to 100 new bombers are needed to augment the


20 stealthy B-2s in the eet today.

AviationWeek.com/awst

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Steady
Spending
Indonesian defense
budget to allow
continued spree
Leithen Francis
Jakarta, Indonesia

he Indonesian military has been


on a buying spree that is likely to
hold steady for the next decade,
according to the countrys outgoing
defense minister.
Purnomo Yusgiantoro, who became
defense minister in 2009, is the longestserving cabinet minister in the government of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. But his term is about to end.
Indonesia held its presidential elections
on July 9. The new government will
come to office in the coming months,
and Purnomo will retire in late October.
Since he assumed control of the
defense portfolio, the government has
allotted about $12.7 billion over five
years for defense procurement. The
military budget in 2010-14 is ve times
more than what it was in 2000-04 and
three times more than what it was
in 2005-09, he says. But from here,
the budget is likely to hold steady for
2015-19 and 2020-24, Purnomo says.
The investment has allowed Indonesia, unlike many other Southeast Asian
nations, to upgrade its defense capability and persuade western defense companies to help develop its indigenous
defense industry.
Recent procurements include the
purchase of 16 Korean Aerospace Industries T-50 jet trainers, 16 Embraer
A-29 Super Tucano light attack aircraft, eight Boeing AH-64E Apache
attack helicopters, 24 upgraded Lockheed Martin F-16 ghters and nine Airbus C295 military transports.
Indonesia is also on the hunt for
a squadron of fighters to replace its
Northrop F-5s. Aircraft being considered include: Lockheed Martin F-16,
Saab Gripen, Sukhoi Su-35, Dassault
Rafale and Eurofighter Typhoon,
Purnomo says.
The air force has recommended
the Su-35, but that doesnt mean we
will order the Su-35, he says, adding
that the air force looks at the technical

AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 1, 2014 25

DEFENSE

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SUKHOI

specications of the aircraft types and


makes a recommendation to the ministry, which then looks at interoperability and life-cycle costs. The defense
minister also considers the bigger
picture, such as the geopolitical situation and the procurements impact on
Indonesias bilateral relations.
But some planned purchases have
been delayed. That includes a longstanding requirement for anti-submarine warfare (ASW) helicopters. The
ministrys sought to purchase the helicopters as part of its 2010-14 plan, but the
procurement is now likely to be pushed
back to next year. Indonesias navy, however, has disclosed that it wants 16 ASW
helicopters and that it prefers the Airbus
Helicopters AS565 Panther.
In addition to increasing the budget,
the defense ministry has also pushed

the C295, says Purnomo. The Philippines and Thailand are interested in
the C295a stretch version of the
CN235an aircraft that IAe has been
manufacturing and exporting for decades, he says. The CN235 is similar
to the Spanish-built version.
The Philippines and Brunei are
considering the CN235 maritime patrol aircraft from Indonesia, Purnomo
says.
Though defense accounts for 0.9%
of Indonesias GDP, spending has increased signicantly in dollar terms,
because Indonesias economy has been
experiencing double-digit growth. We
are now second [in Southeast Asia]
only to Singapore, adds Purnomo,
adding that Indonesias defense spending in 2014 was $8.4 billion.
The procurement budget also has

Though the Indonesian air force is likely to recommend


replacing F-5s with Sukhoi Su-35s, the defense
ministry may not agree.

overseas defense companies to transfer technology to Indonesia and to give


Indonesian state-owned enterprises,
such as Indonesian Aerospace (IAe),
the ability to manufacture and maintain
product in-country as well asin some
casesto manufacture equipment for
export. In the case of the recent deal
between IAe and Airbus Defense, the
Indonesian company manufactures
C212s and C295s for foreign sales.
The country has ordered nine Airbus C295 military transport aircraft
for the air force. The rst seven are to
be manufactured at Airbus Defense
and Spaces facility in Spain, but the
other two are to be manufactured at
IAe in Bandung, Purnomo says. We
plan to get seven more C295s and these
will be made in Bandung, he says.
Indonesia has been actively marketing the C295 to other countries in
the Association of Southeast Asian
Nations. Indonesias deputy defense
minister, Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin, will be
visiting Myanmar soon to help market

increased. Purnomo imposed a freeze


on the budget for salaries for the period 2012-14. Salaries, along with maintenance, were squeezing out funds for
new equipment, says Purnomo.
Purnomo says he also ensured that
2% of the defense budget goes toward
research and development. In addition to defense, other institutions
are boosting R&D efforts such as the
ministry of research and technology,
which helped fund development of Indonesias indigenous UAVs. Indonesia
plans to develop even larger UAVs and
to weaponize them, he says.
Another factor driving Indonesias
desire to manufacture and maintain
military equipment in-country is its
experience with arms embargoes. In
response to Indonesias occupation
and treatment of East Timorese, the
U.S. imposed an arms embargo against
Indonesia from 1999 to 2005.
During that time, Indonesia was unable to get spare parts for its defense
equipment and some aircraft, such as

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26 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 1, 2014

Indonesian air force C-130s, had to be


grounded. The embargo emphasized
to Indonesias defense planners the
importance of self-sufficiencya trend
evident in other countries. I think
our industry is like Turkeys, he says.
They were embargoed too.
The next cornerstone project for Indonesias defense industry is the South
Korean KF-X, a new indigenous ghter
which is being jointly developed with
Indonesia, which will have a 20% work
share.
We started with the technical
development. We are now entering
the engineering and manufacturing
development phase, says Purnomo.
Industry sources say South Korea is
lobbying Lockheed Martin to assist
the KF-X program, as part of an offset
package for South Koreas purchase of
Lockheed Martin F-35s.
Purnomo says in his opinion, Indonesia and South Korea should bring in an
international defense companysuch as
Boeing or Lockheed Martinto assist in
the KF-X program. The KF-X ghter will
need to source some technology and systemssuch as enginesfrom the U.S.
Indonesia plans to order three
squadrons of KF-X fighters, says
Purnomo. The original designs show a
twin-engine ghter, but Purnomo says
there is some debate going on between
officials from Indonesia and South Korea over whether the aircraft should
have one or two engines. Purnomo
supports a dual-engine ghter for additional thrust and speedimportant
when traversing Indonesias vast archipelago. South Koreas joint chiefs
are backing the two-engine design
(AW&ST, July 30, p. 29).
The KF-X program could be appealing
to Boeing because it could provide it with
a further avenue for development of its
twin-engine Boeing F/A-18 Super Hornet or the Boeing F-15. But if Lockheed
Martin is chosen, then it may push for a
single-engine ghter, in keeping with its
design philosophy behind the F-16.
Indonesia already operates 10
F-16A/B aircraft and is poised to take
delivery of its rst F-16C/Ds. The rst
six of 24 upgraded F-16C/Ds on order
were to be delivered by September. The
F-16s have undergone a Common Configuration Implementation Program
upgrade to make it compatible with
the Block 52 standard. And Indonesia
plans to have the air forces 10 F-16A/Bs
upgraded to C/D standard, to match the
24 it is getting, Purnomo says. c
AviationWeek.com/awst

SPACE

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Bigger Picture

Welded barrel sections for SLS core


stages, including qualication units,
have been made at NASAs Michoud
Assembly Facility in New Orleans.

SLS cleared for full development, but risk


assessment may push rst launch back to late 2018
Guy Norris Los Angeles

AviationWeek.com/awst

billion for SLS, and accords with projected funding for 2015
and beyond. Under a House appropriations bill passed in
late May, SLS would receive $1.6 billion in 2015, while a Senate version would provide $1.7 billion. President Obamas
budget has meanwhile requested $1.35 billion for the SLS
in 2015.
The agency expects to gain a much rmer idea about the
full extent of the cost and schedule risks to the entire SLS
program next year, following the completion of separate
KDP-C reviews for the development of the ground infrastructure at Kennedy Space Center and the Lockheed Martin-built Orion spacecraft. We will hit the ground systems
next and then do Orion in early 2015. At that point, we will
bring the three elements together to assess readiness for
EM-1, says Lightfoot.
The main elements of SLS are on track, though there
are some risks in front of us and challengesand Im sure
things will show up, says Gerstenmaier. NASA has recently
focused on solid modeling to resolve loads issues associated
with interactions between the launch vehicle and the solid
rocket boosters. It has also been tackling acoustic loads challenges related to reected sound coming back at the vehicle
from the launch pad as the engines come to life he adds.
Another watch item is related to avionics development and
software interaction.
In terms of progress with parts, the agencys Michoud
Assembly Facility in New Orleans is making the rst pieces
of ight hardware for SLS. Sixteen RS-25 engines, enough
for four ights, are in inventory at the Stennis Space Center,
in Bay St. Louis, Mississippi, where an engine is already
installed and ready for testing in the October-November
period. ATK has also conducted successful test-rings of
the boosters and is preparing for the rst qualication motor test.
NASA has also completed a series of structural tests on an
18-ft. (5.5-meter) diameter, lightweight composite cryogenic
fuel tank which could ultimately be used for future SLS stages. Conducted at Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville,
Alabama, the tests included lling the Boeing-built composite
tank with almost 30,000 gal. of liquid hydrogen chilled to
-423F and repeatedly cycling the pressure between 20-53 lb.
per square inch. c

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AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 1, 2014 27

NASA MICHOUD

ASAs heavy-lift Space Launch System rocket has


taken a key step toward carrying humans into deep
space following a pivotal program review that clears
the vehicle to proceed into full-scale development.
However, while there is no debating the importance of the
milestonewhich no NASA exploration-class vehicle has
passed since the space shuttle in the 1970sit is the length of
the step toward rst launch that has caught most off-guard.
NASA previously targeted an initial launch of SLS in December 2017 but now, based on the outcome of a mathematical
model that the agency is using for the rst time in a human
exploration program to assess various development risks,
the new target is a rst launch no later than November 2018,
based on a 70% joint condence level.
We dont think of this as a slip to 2018, says William Gerstenmaier, associate administrator for the Human Explorations and Operations Mission Directorate at NASA. Playing
down schedule implications of the development risks highlighted in the review, Gerstenmaier says the target is still to
launch SLS on the rst test mission earlier than November
2018 (see page 19). If we dont do anything, we basically have
a 70% chance of getting to that date. We will be there by November of 2018, but I look to my team to do better than that.
First on the SLS ight manifest is Exploration Mission 1
(EM-1), which will carry an uncrewed Orion spacecraft beyond low Earth orbit, paving the way for the rst crewed
ight, EM-2, in 2021. More powerful congurations providing
lift capability of 130 metric tons (143 tons) will follow, to enable deep-space missions to destinations such as an asteroid
and Mars. Gerstenmaier acknowledges the launch of EM-1
will probably be sometime in the 2018 timeframe. But we
dont want to get too specic. Urging a longer-term perspective, he adds we are building a system thats going to be
around for multiple decades.
NASAs decision to commit to SLS development follows
an extensive program review called Key Decision Point C
(KDP-C) which addressed both technical and programmatic
aspects. The review also established a 70% condence level
for an estimated SLS development cost of $7 billion from
February 2014 through its rst launch. According to NASA
Associate Administrator Robert Lightfoot, the cost estimate
dovetails with the projected overall life-cycle cost of $9.69

AIR TRANSPORT

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Spanning
Challenges

The A380 was tapped to help capacity-strapped


airports, but could it end up hurting them?
Tony Osborne London and Jens Flottau Frankfurt

f Airbus chief salesman John Leahy had to pick one airport


to demonstrate the need for a large aircraft such as the A380,
he would certainly pick London Heathrow: dense, high-yield
traffic ows and severe capacity limitations. But increasing A380
operations at Heathrow also show more operational challenges
that could emerge at other legacy airports, too.

Some 15 A380s operate into Heathrow daily. Emirates ies A380s on all
ve of its daily London-Dubai rotations,
while Singapore Airlines uses the type
on three of its four daily ights. And the
number looks set to rise, with British
Airways taking delivery of more A380s
in the coming months, to be joined by
Qatar Airways and Etihad in October
and December, respectively.
But ever-increasing A380 operations
at Heathrow could also potentially have
a negative impact on what is the worlds
busiest two-runway international airport, suggest officials from the U.K.s
air navigation service provider, National
Air Traffic Services (NATS) .
Senior NATS air traffic controllers
say the biggest impact comes from the
spacing requirement for the aircraft,
which is in the super wake vortex
category. As an A380 departs, it requires up to 3 min. of spacing between
it and the next aircraft ifas it often
is at Heathrowit is a smaller narrowbody type, such as an Airbus A320 or
Boeing 737.
Because the airport routinely operates at around 99% of its runway capacity, the 3-min. hold time before the
aircraft behind the A380 can depart
can have a signicant impact on the
number of aircraft that can use the
runway per hour.
Greater distances between traffic
are also required on approach. According to International Civil Aviation
Organization (ICAO) guidelines, minimum separation for a heavy category
aircraft such as a Boeing 747 behind an
A380 is 6 nm., two more than behind

another 747. The restrictions only apply below 10,000 ft. Medium-size aircraft up to the Boeing 757 have to keep
a 7 nm. separation and smaller aircraft
eight.
Heathrow aims for around 42-44
movements or departures per hour and
runway, but if that gure dips below 36,
operations managers may not be able
to t the days schedule into one day,
affecting the airports hub operations.
Signicant impacts are also felt with
the A380s relatively high runway occupancy time (ROT)for landing run
and taxi-offas well as line-up (for
takeoff ) times (LUT).
According to Jon Proudlove, NATS
general manager at Heathrow, Boeing
747s can take around 45 sec. to taxi

onto the runway and line up ready for


departure, but A380s are taking around
65 sec. A Heathrow report on A380 operations states that on one occasion, it
took an A380 as long as 111 sec. to line
up on runway 27L.
Heathrow operates on a knife
edge, says Proudlove. The impact of
these aircraft nibbles away at runway
capacity. By 2030 we expect to handle
up to 60 A380s a day, but there is no
plan for that, we cant plan for that,
he says.
With 104 weekly A380 flights,
Heathrow handles the second-most
A380 flights worldwide. Because
Emirates eet of 50 A380s is based in
Dubai, that airport is the busiest for
the type, with 297 weekly departures.
Dubai is exceptional, as a lot of the latest airport infrastructure investments
have been planned around A380 operationsEmirates even operates into an
A380-dedicated terminal. The airport
also underwent runway and taxiway upgrades this year that allowed
smoother operations, but they were
not directly linked to A380 services.
What Heathrow is facing today
could well look like a glimpse into some
of the future issues faced at other airports seeing increasing numbers of
A380s. Singapore has 104 and Paris
Charles de Gaulle 94 weekly flights;
Frankfurt has 76 (and Emirates is adding a daily roundtrip this week); Seoul
Incheon 75 and Los Angeles International 70. Sydney has 47 weekly A380
ights. The level of current issues is
different at these locations, however.
Charles de Gaulle generally has ample

HEATHROW AIRPORT LTD

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28 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 1, 2014

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WorldMags.net
Sum of Weekly
Departures

runway capacity and continues to add


terminal space. Frankfurt opened a
fourth runway and therefore has more
capacity than it currently needs, its
limits are dictated by passenger terminal constraints. And A380 operations
have already been taken into account
in Seoul Incheons planning process.
Mainly because of its space constraints, Los Angeles International
(LAX) is probably another really challenging case and could prove to become even more difficult in the future.
There are several approaches
to mitigating the A380s impact. In
theory, with more A380s operating
into Heathrow, the aircraft could be
grouped on departure, allowing an
A380 to leave after another A380
within a minute or so, but opportunities to do this are few and far between.
NATS and the airport authorities
have been working with the airlines on
reducing the ROT and LUT times and
NATS says performance is signicantly
enhanced by the use of Airbuss Brake
To Vacate (BTV) system.
According to Airbus, nine of the
current 11 A380 operators have picked
BTV comparable with smaller narrowbody types. Airbus Test Pilot Jean-Michel Roy says airlines that have chosen
BTV routinely use it, but runway occupancy times for Heathrow landings
suggest that pilots may not consistently apply it. And only three of the
ve A380 operators ying to Heathrow
have BTV installed.
The system functions when the aircraft is in autoland mode. BTV tells
the pilots on the primary ight display

Operations at capacity-constrained
Heathrow Airport were considered a
key market for the Airbus A380,
but its increasing use may be
affecting airport effciency.

AviationWeek.com/awst

where the earliest possible Row Labels


AKL
position on the runway will
AMS
be during dry or wet condiATL
tions, and with a preselected
BCN
deceleration rate in place.
BKK
The crew can then select
an exit after that position
BNE
and BTV will automatically
BOM
decelerate the aircraft in
CAN
the most efficient way to a
CDG
taxi speed of 10 kt., at which
DEL
point pilots will take full
DME
manual control again. AcDXB
cording to Roy, airlines can
FCO
therefore reduce runway ocFRA
cupancy time from around
HKG
90 to 60 sec.
IAD
Once pilots prepare BTV
IAH
during the approach, the
ICN
computer will tell them the
expected ROT. The crew
JED
can therefore tell air trafJFK
fic control in advance how
JNB
much time it expects will be
KIX
needed until the aircraft has
KUL
left the runway again. AirKWI
bus argues this will make it
LAX
easier for ATC to plan spacLGW
ing in the arrival pattern.
LHR
Airbus also has been
MAN
working with ICAO to reMEL
address the minimum sepaMIA
ration criteria put in place
MRU
for the A380. The latest
round of ight testsinvolvMUC
ing several smaller aircraft
NRT
types flying behind A380s
PEK
at various angles, speeds
PVG
and other changing condiSFO
tionstook place in 2010,
SIN
and working groups are still
SYD
assessing the data. Airbus
SZX
has been trying to persuade
YYZ
authorities to move the
ZRH
A380 back into the heavy
category from its own su- Grand Total
per-heavy definition. The
outcome of those talks and the timing
of any conclusions is still unclear.
A380 Product Marketing Director
Thomas Burger claims that if air traffic
control manages to group A380 arrivals, even under the current ICAO regulations A380s increase runway capacity
because the restrictions do not apply
when one A380 follows another and because of their high passenger capacity.
Space and taxiway limitations can
make ground operations more difficult
for the aircraft. At Heathrow a major
issue is that signicant sections of the
taxiway system linking Terminal 3
to Terminal 1 on the north side of the

Grand Total

WorldMags.net

airport is not ICAO Code


F-compliant, making it
7
unavailable for use by the
7
A380 because of its 79.757
meter (261-ft.) wingspan.
As a result, A380s land60
ing on the northern run14
ways09L or 27Rcan
14
only vacate the runway at
21
two intersections, forcing
94
ground controllers to take
7
the aircraft on lengthy
7
routes around the aireld
297
to reach their stands. Use
7
of the northern taxiways
76
will only be possible once
52
Terminal 1 and its asso7
ciated piers have been
7
demolished to make way
for the new Heathrow
75
East development, part of
17
which is already complete
49
with the construction of
20
the new Terminal 2.
21
For operators using
21
Terminal 4 on the south
7
side of the airport, such as
70
Malaysian Airlines, A380
7
operations are complicat104
ed by the fact that only a
7
small triangle of the taxi29
way which links the front
7
of the terminal to the
7
southern runway is currently Code F-compliant.
14
The aircraft arrives on
28
one
of the worlds busiest
42
runways and then has to
24
cross it again in order to
14
get to Terminal 4, says
104
Proudlove. On departure,
47
these aircraft have to
7
cross back over the run3
way again.
14
He adds that Qatar Air1,443
ways and Etihad will face
a similar issue when they
begin A380 operations, as both airlines
also use Terminal 4. The airport is making more parking stands A380 compatible as more are used into the airport.
In Los Angeles, similar restrictions
apply for A380 ground operations. Not
all taxiways and runway exits can be
used and the aircraft generally have
to be accompanied by ground vehicles
during taxi to ensure no obstacles are
hit. Even so, there have been several
minor collisions. Airbus says it plans
to use ADS-B data to monitor other
aircraft traffic during taxi and show
taxi clearances on the primary ight
display in the future. c
21

AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 1, 2014 29

AIR TRANSPORT

WorldMags.net

Plug and Play

vironmental technology effort in which


costs are shared by the participants.
Preliminary results indicated acoustically treated CMC can meet or potentially exceed performance of current
metallics, and that the CMC material
system exceeds temperature capability
of superalloys at a weight 20% lighter
than titanium, resulting in reduced fuel
consumption. This technology also enables more advanced propulsion system
architectures capable of achieving additional fuel savings, states developer
Boeing Research & Technology.
For the tests, the right (No. 2) RollsRoyce Trent 1000 engine was fitted
with the 92-in.-long CMC assembly;
this combined a nozzle, plug and sleeve.
Developed under a joint effort between
Boeing, Rolls, ATK affiliate COI Ceramics and Albany Engineered Composites,
the CMC nozzle was tted to ZA004,
the fourth 787 ight-test aircraft, fol-

787-based ecoDemonstrator readied for


second ight phase following CMC nozzle tests
Guy Norris Los Angeles

he top airframe manufacturers


have long since crossed the Rubicon when it comes to adopting
large-scale carbon-ber reinforced plastics and other structural composites for
lower weight and greater efficiency. But
when it comes to engines, the heaviest
parts of the aircraft, hot exhaust means
there are few alternatives to the titanium and super alloys used today.
However, all that could be about to
change. Specialists at Boeing are still
reviewing data, but preliminary results
from recently completed tests of a ceramic engine nozzle on a specially modied 787 show the advanced material was
not only more heat-resistant but considerably lighter, which portends a potential
for fuel savings on future designs.
Boeing believes tests of the acoustically treated oxide ceramic matrix
composite (CMC) nozzle, the largest
single part ever made from this material, could prove a breakthrough in
improving propulsion system efficiency and open up a possible gateway to
more closely integrated airframeengine designs. The CMC evaluation
also marked the rst ight-test phase
for the latest ecoDemonstrator, a former 787 prototype now being readied
to test a second batch of technologies.
Although engine makers, General
Electric in particular, have made strides
to develop CMCs for use in static hot
parts of enginessuch as the mixer on
the Passport business aircraft engine
Boeing wants to explore the wider potential of the material for everything
from propulsion systems to thermal
protection on hypersonic and space reentry vehicles. CMCs are being studied for engine core applications but as
temperatures go up, naturally there is
impingement on the exhaust-washed
areas of the structure, says Mitch
Petervary, Boeing principal investigator for the FAAs Continuous Lower Energy, Emissions and Noise (Cleen) oxide
nozzle. Boeing integrates propulsion
into the airframe and, as the exhaust
nozzle is part of that package, it is one
of the reasons we selected it for the ecoDemonstrator, he adds.

In our pursuit of ever more efficient engines, exhaust gas temperatures have been getting hotter, and
thatcoupled with increased community noise restrictionshas really
challenged our traditional structures
and materials. We are currently pushing them to their full capabilities,
Petervary says. The CMC tests on the
ecoDemonstrator give Boeing the opportunity to expand the current state
of the art of its suite of materials and
structures for nacelle and propulsion
system integration.
Nozzle
Interface

CMC Exhaust
Nozzle Shell

Core Flow

CMC Acoustic
Sandwich

Tail Bearing
Housing

Titanium
Aft Cap

Centerbody
Interface

Centerbody
Core Flow

Source: Boeing

FanFlow

Titanium
Nozzle Faring

Measuring 63 in. in diameter at its


widest point, the acoustically treated
exhaust assembly is the largest CMC
structure of its type yet own.

We have been working on CMCs in


the military sector [and want to demonstrate the materials] feasibility for commercial programs, Petervary says. Under the Cleen program we are applying
oxide CMCs at full scale on an acoustically treated primary exhaust system.
The material is lighter than titanium,
but its thermal capability is well in excess of Inconel alloys. In our application,
we are talking about continuous operation with 1,500F and peaks of 1,800F,
as well as variants that operate up to
2,400F. It can operate at temperatures
where metals melt like taffy.
Flight-tests of the ceramic nozzle
were conducted under the Cleen program, a competitively bid ve-year en-

WorldMags.net

30 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 1, 2014

lowing noise, structural and endurance


ground tests on an engine at RollsRoyces Stennis facility. The evaluation
in July included 12 ight-test days, three
ground-test days, 28.5 hr. of engine run
time and 17 engine cycles.
The ecoDemonstrator is currently
in lay-up at Boeing Field in Seattle,
where it is being tted with a new suite
of technologies for tests in areas covering connectivity, materials, ight deck,
ight sciences and ight-test efficiency
(AW&ST March 17, p. 46). Flight tests
are expected to resume in October. The
787 program follows Boeings rst ecoDemonstrator, a 737-800, which tested
a variety of aerodynamic, systems and
propulsion technologies in 2012. c
AviationWeek.com/awst

After
The MRJ

Japan sets technology


plan to build
aerospace industry
Brad Perrett Sydney
s ight-test aircraft of Japans
first jet airliner take shape at
Nagoya, the countrys technology ministry is laying out a plan for a
second, part of a goal to raise the national industry to the importance of
Japanese automobile manufacturing.
The second aircraft would not appear until around 2040, about 23 years
after the Mitsubishi Aircraft MRJ regional jet is due to enter service, but
it would incorporate an abundance of
advanced Japanese technology and
even use a Japanese engine.
The relatively small size of the
Japanese aeronautics sector has long
seemed anomalous, especially since the
country has so many industries that
have proven themselves in high technology, precision fabrication, outstanding
product reliability and low cost. But instead of building Japanese aircraft, the
sector builds mainly high-quality parts
for foreign aircraft, especially Boeing
airliners.
Aerospace accounts for 1.4% of the
economies of the U.S. and European
countries but only 0.29% of Japans,
says the ministry, whose full name is
Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports,
Science and Technology. Whereas
Japanese companies satisfy 23% of
the worlds automobile demand, the
country accounts for only 4% of the
global aerospace industry. The ministry wants to raise that to 20% within
20 years. Since it expects global aircraft production to double in that time,
the target implies growth by a factor of
10 over the same period, or 12% a year.
By 2040 Japan should achieve signicant leads over other countries in
safety, noise, emissions, and economy,
which the ministry says are necessary
for the country to develop its own commercial aircraft or to initiate international developments.
As a rst step, it calls for development of a range of technologies it
classies as relatively advanced by

AviationWeek.com/awst

The MRJ is Japans rst attempt at a commercial jet aircraft. The


technology ministry proposes advanced Japanese features for the second.
2020: turbulence detection by laser
radar, lighter structures, a light, highly efficient composite engine fan, an
improved low-pressure turbine, drag
reductions and quieter aps, slats and
landing gear. Low aerodynamic noise
on takeoff and landing is already a
key feature of the MRJ, but Japanese
engineers evidently have more ideas,
because the ministry proposes ighttests by around the end of the decade.
Following close behind would be
high-impact technologies for development by 2025, including a better
composite wing and a quiet engine
with a compact core. The engine program would include a high-pressure
turbine that should be tested on an
MRJ around 2025. Japan is weak in
high-pressure turbine technology, the
ministry says, although many countries with aspirations in aircraft propulsion suffer from the same problem.
Before the ministry issued its report
on Aug. 19, the Yomiuri newspaper said
the government would back development by 2030 of an airliner with fewer
than 230 seats, apparently something
like the Boeing 757. The Nikkei newspaper reported on Aug. 27 that the ministry was considering either an aircraft
of that size or another as big as the
MRJ. But Japan has no concrete plan
to develop another aircraft, says Shinji
Suzuki, a Tokyo University professor
closely involved in policy making.
Japans success in other manufacturing processes, especially automotives, shows the country could play a
larger role in global aerospace, says
Suzuki. Japan has a special potential
to reduce production costs, such as
[with the] Toyota Production System,

WorldMags.net

Kaizen, and robot manufacturing systems. Those have been developed in


the automobile industry and can be
applied for the aircraft industry.
The automobile industry offers a
precedent for the rapid pace of production increases called for by the ministry:
Japan built 1 million vehicles in 1963
and 10 million in 1980. But the U.S. and
European car makers of the 1960s and
1970s were probably a good deal more
vulnerable to smart new competition
than are Airbus and Boeing.
The supply of engineers is not a
great challenge, says Suzuki. Management skill and business experience
will be more important to developing
a larger commercial aircraft, he says.
Japan is trying to acquire those skills
through the MRJ business.
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, the
chief shareholder of Mitsubishi Aircraft and manufacturer of the MRJ,
has tted the Pratt & Whitney PW1200
engines to the first flight-test MRJ.
The first flight is due in the second
quarter of 2015.
Japan Airlines (JAL) will be the
fth customer for the type, the carrier
and Mitsubishi Aircraft announced on
Aug. 28. In July, U.S.-based Eastern
Air Lines Group, which has not yet
begun ying, signed a memorandum
of understanding to order 20 MRJs.
If that deal and JALs are conrmed,
the program will have a backlog of 205
aircraft on order.
The timing of deliveries to JAL was
not disclosed. Mitsubishi Aircraft cannot have many early delivery positions
available, because of slippage in airworthiness certication to 2017 from
the originally planned late 2013. c

AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 1, 2014 31

MITSUBISHI AIRCRAFT

WorldMags.net

AIR TRANSPORT

WorldMags.net

Do It Yourself

Increasing number of airlines see great benets


in letting passengers handle their own baggage
Henry Canaday Washington
he self-service revolution in
airline ground operations now
includes baggage handling. Air
New Zealand lets customers print bag
tags at self-service kiosks and drop
them on baggage belts in Auckland
and Melbourne. Lufthansa does the
same at many airports. Alaska Airlines
passengers print tags at home or at
kiosks, then take them to express bag
drops at a dozen airports.
Airline information technology specialist SITA reports that a third of airlines let passengers print bag tags now
and more than four-fths will by 2017.
Self-service bag drops are rarer, at 9%

BAGDROP SYSTEMS

Self-tagging reduces effort for airline agents and lowers airline costs.
Tags are printed at home on standard
letter-size paper, then folded and inserted in reusable tag holders supplied by the airline. Carriers can put
ads on holders to pull in extra revenue.
Or check-in kiosks can print tags, as
SITAs now do. Self-service bag drops
are a little trickier.
Small hurdles and challenges
abound for self-service adoption.
Europe, for instance, requires green
strips on checked bags. The industry
is discussing this with regulators and
expects a solution.

Self-service baggage handling systems are


becoming more common worldwide as airlines
seek to make airport operations more efficient.
today, headed for 70% in 2017. Assisted
drop of self-tagged bags is now available at a third of locations. It will be
common in a few years.
SITA Self Service Portfolio Director Rico Barandun says automation
reflects several factors. Its mainly
driven by a need to expand airport and
terminal capacity. Self-service eliminates queues for passengers and saves
time. Because of its advantages, rst
movers on self-service gain marketing
benets in attracting passengers.
Self-printing of tags is popular in Europe, Australia and New Zealand. We
are starting to see it in Asia, and there is
huge interest in the U.S., Barandun says.

At-home tag printing requires


changes in airline check-in applications. For example, Sabre check-in
systems do not support it yet, notes
Stan Boyer, vice president-solutions
marketing. But several carriers have
added systems on top to do that.
Additionally, self-service bag drops
create a need for attendants to help
customers. SITA recommends one
helper for every four self-service drops.
Carriers must modify departure control systems so that selfservice tags
printed as inactive can be converted to
active for acceptance by handlers.
BCS is proving and installing its selfservice model, BAGgate. Two proof-of-

WorldMags.net

32 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 1, 2014

concept (POC) units have operated in


Brisbane for two years and eight production units are going in. Melbourne
has six POC units and will get 12 more
by September, then another 30 by mid2015. Singapore will have eight BAGgates by year-end and BCS plans to
install 30 units in Lisbon.
BAGgates have been used by Air
New Zealand, Jetstar and Tiger Air
so far, but are designed for common
use. The big gains are capacity and
passenger time. BAGgates are smaller than manual check-in units, so
20-40% more can be put in the same
space. They move people faster, about
30 sec. versus 90 sec. for manual handling. Speed eliminates up to 30 min.,
perhaps boosting retail spending.
BAGgates general manager for services and solutions, Marc Michel, says
passengers are better at tagging bags
than airline staff. Passengers have
incentives to get bags where they are
going.
Five years from now, Michel expects
biometric ID and near-eld communication will let passengers just drop
bags at airports. He predicts airports
may run all check-in and bag processing, rather than airlines.
BagDrop Systems BV has 25 selfservice units in Amsterdam and will
add eight more this year. It is trying
out equipment in Zurich and operating six units in Japan, where it plans to
install 40 units, Executive Vice President Edwin Sneekes says.
BagDrop units are smaller than traditional drops, are common use and
process passengers faster. Sneekes
says all that adds up to doubling drop
capacity in the same space. His companys units can use existing belts,
economizing on integration.
The technology has been used
since 2008 and is familiar to Dutch
travelers. BagDrop accounts for 20%
of stations in Amsterdam Terminal 2,
but handles 60% of throughput.
BagDrop can both print tags and
accept tags printed elsewhere. Selfadhesive folding tags minimize tagging
errors. Airlines typically provide one
agent per six BagDrop units.
Sneekes sees the biggest gains in
saved space and staffing. He expects
more large-scale installations and his
rm to be active across all ve continents in ve years. The only real hurdle
is spreading the benets of self-service
to all three stakeholders: airports, airlines and handling agents. c
AviationWeek.com/awst

UTILITY AIRCRAFT

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Revival Mission

due in 2015. Serving airstrips in the


155-island nation in the Indian Ocean,
the airline is updating its Series 300s.
On the conversion for the airlines
pilots from the legacy aircraft, Captain

Around 50 Twin Otter 400s have


been delivered to customers for
service in remote regions.

Viking Air hopes new sales will support


long-term Twin Otter 400 production
Howard Slutsken Vancouver
he iconic de Havilland Canada
DHC-6 Twin Otter enjoyed an initial 20-year production run before
the nal plane rolled off the Downsview,
Ontario, assembly line in 1988. It took
almost another 20 years until Viking
Air launched the upgraded Series 400
Twin Otter, responding to a market that
couldnt nd a replacement for the legacy short-takeoff-and-landing (STOL)
utility plane. But Viking believes the
new version has found its place.
Production is now stable at one new
aircraft every ten working days, according to Dave Curtis, Viking Air president
and CEO. With more than 50 aircraft
delivered and an order book over 100,
Curtis acknowledges that its been a
challenging ramp-up to full production.
Weve sorted out our supply chain both
internally and externally, and the number
of production issues that I get personally
involved with has gone quiet. Now I get to
focus on building the company.
Viking has been supporting the de
Havilland Canada (DHC) eet of DHC-2
Beavers, DHC-3 Otters and legacy Twin
Otters for decades, with parts, engineering and MRO services. In 2006,
leveraging their knowledge and experience with these Canadian utility aircraft, Viking acquired the Type Certicates from Bombardier Aerospace for
all of the legacy DHC aircraft, from the
DHC-1 Chipmunk to the DHC-7 Dash 7.
The decision to restart production
of an updated Twin Otter came after
discussions with operators worldwide,
who were clamoring for a replacement
aircraft. The Series 400 was launched
in 2007, with rst delivery in 2010.
Major components are fabricated
in Vikings Victoria, British Columbia,

AviationWeek.com/awst

VIKING AIR

plant, and final assembly takes place


in Calgary, Alberta. Although the performance of the Series 400 is virtually
identical to the Series 300 legacy aircraft, the new Twin Otters have numerous upgrades to the planes internal
systems, including a Honeywell Primus
Apex at-panel integrated avionics suite.
With the steam instruments, there
were something like 150 part numbers
and 30 vendors. Were down to 10 part
numbers and one vendor, says Curtis.
But certifying airplane software is not
a quick process. We did Phase 1 for the
basic certication of the aircraft. Were
now deep into Phase 2, which will include
a lot of bug xes and features such as
synthetic vision and a digital autopilot.
There are concerns that flat-panel
displays and modern avionics arent
robust enough for seaplane and unimproved airport duty. Curtis disagrees:
The displays are out of the U.S. M1
Abrams main battle tank. Weve never
had a problem with them, he says. But
the system has had its teething pains.
Weve had an issue with a graphics
card that seemed to have its challenges.
Its a Line Replaceable Unit (LRU). The
decision to use the Honeywell system
was driven in part by that companys
worldwide support and warranty.
Series 400 aircraft have been delivered to new and legacy Twin Otter operators, including the U.S. Army, the Peruvian air force, Malaysias MASwings,
and utility operators worldwide such as
Swiss-based Zimex. Trans Maldivian
Airways, the worlds largest operator of
seaplanes, has added three Series 400s
to its eet of over 40 Series 300 planes.
Air Seychelles is ying three wheelequipped Series 400s, with a fourth

WorldMags.net

Granger Narara, general manageroperations, for Air Seychelles, says the


transition from the Series 300 to 400 is
very easy. The handling characteristics
are exactly the same, the only difference
is the ight instruments and avionics.
He adds that in terms of operational reliability, even with the high humidity and
saline environment that we operate in,
we have had minimum issues.
Curtis recognizes that the major
competitor for the Series 400 is the
fleet of 600-odd legacy Twin Otters
still in service. He also acknowledges
work being done by Ikhana to revive
the legacy aircraft, which benets Viking on the support side of the equation. Ikhana is commercially linked to
Viking, theyve used our engineering
data, and we derive revenue from it,
he says. Other competitive twin-engine
aircraft include the Harbin Y12, PZL
M28, Let L-410 and the Dornier 228.
But on oats, Curtis says its either
the single-engine Cessna Caravan or
the Twin Otter.
Viking is targeting emerging markets
such as Brazil, India and China, and has
had some success in Russia with nine aircraft sold and four delivered. Curtis believes that Russia could be a 200-aircraft
market over 10 years, for us. Chinese
certication of the Series 400 is in process, and Curtis sees that country as a
huge opportunity. Of the more than 800
legacy Twin Otters produced by DHC,
only a handful were delivered to China.
Ive got the worlds best seaplane, and
interest from Chinese customers who are
looking to link a Tier 2 city-pairing of 20
million people by seaplanes.
This points to what Curtis sees as
constraining Vikings growth. I can
produce the airplanes, but I cant magically produce safe, trained crews, he
says.
To accelerate the training process, Viking and its Victoria-based ight training partner, Pacic Sky Aviation, recently contracted for the worlds rst Level D
seaplane simulator from Montreal-based
TRU Simulation.It is planned to be operational in early 2016. c

AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 1, 2014 33

AVIATION SAFETY

WorldMags.net

Avian
Awareness

As bird-strike data improves,


efforts to boost safety go beyond airports
Sean Broderick and John Croft Washington

U
U.S. DEPARTMENT AGRICULTURE

S Airways Flight 1549 introduced much of the non-aviation


world to the hazards that birds pose to airplanes. But data
gathered since the January 2009 day that the US Airways
A320 lost power in both engines after plowing through a ock of
Canada geese and was piloted safely down in New Yorks Hudson
River suggest that the accident boosted wildlife mitigations visibility within the industry as well.

A perimeter fence keeps wild turkeys from the runway area


of New Hampshires Pease International Airport.
Last year, the FAAs wildlife strike
database collected 11,315 strike reports96% of them involving birds.
In 2008, FAA collected 7,651 strike
reports. While bird populations are
climbing, the difference between the
pre-2009 gures and todays numbers
is explained by an increase in something else: awareness.
Given that the FAA does not mandate strike reporting and requires airports to conduct wildlife assessments
only if certain hazards are detected
(although most have or plan to do
them anyway), increased awareness
is a good thing. Add in that the vast
majority of airport wildlife mitigation

is done with low-tech tactics that seem


more at home at a backyard reworks
display than a modern airport (see
page 41), and the importance of grassroots buy-in becomes even clearer.
The FAAs approach to mitigating
wildlife strike risks includes regularly
updated guidance, blanketing industry
with awareness posters, making strike
reports easier to le and working closely with wildlife experts to make airports
less attractive to birds and anything
they eat. The tactics seem to be working, especially at commercial airports.
Despite the absence of mandates or
magic-bullet technology, the number
of so-called damaging strikes at com-

WorldMags.net

34 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 1 , 2014

mercial airports totaled only 241 last


year, a 37% decline from the peak of
380 in 2000. The decline in damaging
strikes has been most pronounced for
commercial aircraft on the airfield
or below 500 ft. above ground level
(AGL), FAA data show.
Factoring in general aviation (GA)
airports, damaging strikes totaled 601
last year, down from 2000s peak of
764. The number of damaging strikes
involving GA aircraft has not fallen
one reason that the FAA has stepped
up outreach to GA airports in the last
several years.
More telling evidence of the FAAs
success at commercial airports is the
damaging strike rate, which factors in
numbers of operations. Last years rate
was 0.98 damaging strikes per 100,000
aircraft movements, down 19% yearover-yearthe lowest rate since 1996.
Rates of damaging strikes are a better risk indicator than calculations of
total strikes for two reasons: Strikes
that cause damage almost always get
reported, andby definitionaffect
aircraft operations. But the more widely
used risk-calculation metric is strikes
per 100,000 (or sometimes 10,000) operations. Judging by this measure, bird
strikes are a runaway epidemic2013s
rate of 20.45 per 100,000 movements
where an operator was identied is the
third-highest rate ever, and is nearly
four times 1990s rate.
But the combination of non-mandatory reporting and steadily increasing
awareness with occasional spikes
year-over-year reports jumped 25% in
2009 after US Airways Flight 1549
means that assessing risk based on
strike quantities is almost meaningless. Last year, strikes were reported
at a record 649 airports379 commercial facilities and 270 general aviation
airelds. In 1990, the rst year in FAAs
database, 331 airports reported strikes.
The difference does not reect new migratory patterns, but rather suggests a
heightened awareness that boosts reports of harmless, but still potentially
telling in aggregate, strikes.
While it is impossible to make a definitive link between the increase in
total reports and the decrease in serious ones, industry stakeholders believe
they understand the connection. More
reports yield more data, which wildlife
experts and airport personnel use to
help understand factors like bird migration patterns. Once such variables
are understood, targeted strategies
AviationWeek.com/awst

NTSB

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can be developed to mitigate risk,


which cuts down on serious incidents.
Were showing a decline in damaging strikes due to the management
actions at individual airports, says
Richard Dolbeer, a wildlife mitigation
expert and former U.S. Department of
Agriculture (USDA) biologist.
Documented bird strikes are nearly
as old as powered ight itself, even if
their risks have not always been apparent. The first recorded strike, in
September 1905, happened as Orville
Wright was chasing a flock of birds
over an Ohio cornfield. While US
Airways 1549 gets credit for bringing
unprecedented awareness to wildlife
strikes, the Oct. 4, 1960, accident involving Eastern Airlines Flight 375 departing Bostons Logan International
Airport is what rst illuminated bird
strikes as a grave danger to aircraft.
The Eastern Lockheed Electra struck
a ock of European starlings shortly
after takeoff, ingesting birds into three
of its four engines. The aircraft yawed
left, stalled, and went down in Boston
Harbor, killing 62 of 72 onboard.
The Civil Aeronautics Board con-

decades of largely voluntary efforts


that laid the groundwork supporting
todays wildlife mitigation strategies.
New Yorks John F. Kennedy International Airport conducted its rst wild-

This Continental Airlines Boeing


737-900 struck a white-faced
ibis at 5,500 ft. above the ground
during its arrival into Denver in July
2012, damaging the radome, vertical stabilizer and knocking out most
of the ight-deck instruments.

cluded that the unique and critical sequence of loss and recovery of engine
power following the strike caused the
accident, and urged the FAA to improve
engine tolerances to bird ingestion.
The report did not discuss improving wildlife mitigation tactics. Despite
this, airports responded, kicking off

life study in 1965, and pioneered the


airport bird strike database a decade
laterpart of a series of efforts that
gained more momentum after a 1975
accident caused when an Overseas National Airways DC-10 hit a ock of gulls
on its takeoff roll (see page 40).
In 1976, Seattle-Tacoma International became the rst airport to add a fulltime wildlife biologist. Dennis Bulman
was brought on to combat rodents, but
birds soon became his primary focus.
By the 1980s, aviation safety and
wildlife mitigation experts recognized
that harnessing the power of data was

Wildlife Strikes to Civil Aircraft in the U.S.

22
20

Reported Strikes
Reported Strikes with Damage
per 100,000 Aircraft Movements

18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0

12
20

10
20

08
20

06
20

04
20

02
20

00
20

98
19

96
19

94
19

92
19

90
19

Source: FAA
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AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 1, 2014 35

Number of Damaging Strikes

AVIATION SAFETY

WorldMags.net
Damaging Wildlife Strikes
Commercial Aircraft in the U.S.

200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0

< 500 ft. AGL*

> 500 ft. AGL*


* AGL = Above Ground Level

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

19

19

19

19

19

12

10

08

06

04

02

00

98

96

94

92

90

Source: FAA

key to reducing risk. FAA began collecting strike reports in 1965, but for years
used them only during cursory trend
reviews. In 1995, the FAA and USDA
Wildlife Services division teamed up
to analyze both new strike reports and
those dating back to 1990. Among its
goals: Develop a consistent, deep data
set to be used to help guide national
policy and identify areas of risk.
The effort became the FAAs Wildlife
Strike Database, which now has 142,600
reports dating back to 1990. Online reporting was added in 2001; 83% of last
years reports were led online.
Despite the progress in reporting,
experts estimate that 60% of all civil
strikes go unreported. While nearly
all are believed to be non-damaging
strikes or ones that involve very small
birds, the opportunity to bolster data
sets and boost awareness of factors like
migration patterns has some urging
the FAA to mandate strike reporting.
The mandate debate is not new, and
an informal survey at Birdstrike Committee U.S.A.s recent annual meeting
showed that many stakeholders are
convinced the current approach is sufcient. Mandating reports would introduce myriad challenges such as what information should be required to ensure
the best data set, and who should be
required to le reports. While most reports come from airport staff who nd
carcasses on the ground, many come
from pilots and maintenance technicians doing routine work on engines.
Enforcement also is an issue. Determining whether a reporting system is
in place is one thing. Proving a known
strike was not reported is more of a
challenge. But some believe following
the lead of agencies like the U.K. Civil

Aviation Authority, which mandated


reporting in 2003, is the FAAs only
prudent step.
If reporting is not mandatory, it
sends the message that it is not important, says Ron Merritt, president
of avian radar manufacturer Detect.
The debate over whether to mandate
strike reporting has been deepened by
a related question: should the FAA revamp the way strike data are used to
calculate basic risk metrics?
Convinced that the long-standing
strikes-per-100,000-operations and
damaging-strike metrics leave room
for improvement, wildlife mitigation
experts and FAA have pitched a new
basic standard for calculating birdstrike risk at airports. The new approach would calculate an airports
average bird mass per strike. This,
proponents say, would be a better
measure of risk for dangerous strikes,
going beyond the current damaging
strike rate metric by removing the relationship of a strikes outcome from
its potential risk.
Calculating mass-per-strike is easier
than it sounds, so long as some part
of the bird is recovered. Bird strike
reporting usually involves sending
DNA samples to the Smithsonian Institutions Feather Identication Lab,
which identies strike remains for the
FAA, U.S. Air Force and Navy. The new
standard would rely on species weights
listed in a globally accepted Smithsonian handbook. It also would factor in
variables such as the number of birds
involveda strike of 20 birds in a ock
would be counted as 20 strikes, with
masses calculated accordingly.
The idea of a new standard was introduced to kick-start a public discus-

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36 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 1, 2014

sion, says John Weller, national wildlife


biologist in the FAAs Office of Airport
Safety and Standards. If the standard
is adopted, it could be published in an
FAA advisor circular, continuing a series of recent guidance updates aimed
at improving wildlife mitigation efforts.
When Chesley Sullenberger landed
Flight 1549 on the Hudson, the FAA
was in the midst of revamping wildlife
mitigation guidance. Airport construction requirements that unintentionally
encouraged wildlife to gathersuch as
gradual slopes on stormwater ponds
and using on-airport land to offset
wildlife areas wiped out through buildingwere gradually changed. Since
2012, the agency has published new
guidance on reporting wildlife strikes,
minimizing wildlife attractants at or
near airports, and developing wildlife
hazard management plans.
The agency also was pushing airports to conduct voluntary wildlife
assessments. Flight 1549 put a charge
into those efforts, says Weller, who
joined the agency weeks after Flight
1549 went down.
When Weller started at FAA, about
50% of the U.S.s 570 commercial ser-

Wildlife Strikes to Civil Aircraft


in the U.S. 2013

Other*
459 Strikes

Birds
10,856 Strikes

* Other species are terrestrial mammals and


reptiles with a body mass of less than 1 kg
(2.2 lb.) and bats.

Source: FAA

vice airports had completed a wildlife


assessment. By the end of 2015, all Part
139 airports will either have them or
be working toward them, he says. This
despite the fact that the FAA in 2012
put the brakes on a proposed rule that
would have mandated both assessments and hazard management plans
for all commercial airports.
Going through an assessment does
more than check a box. Each completAviationWeek.com/awst

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Certication Standards for Bird Impacts for Air Transport Aircraft


Airframe: EASA CS-25; FAA Part 25 Engine: EASA CS-E; FAA Part 33
Airframe (EASA/FAA)
tAirframe must be capable of continued safe flight and landing after hitting a 4-lb. bird at either cruise speed at sea level, or 85%
of cruise speed at 8,000-ft. altitude, whichever is the most critical.
tWindshield must be capable of absorbing the impact of a 4-lb. bird at cruise speed at sea level without the bird penetrating the
windshield or splintering the inner ply.
tPitot tubes must be far enough apart to prevent a single bird from breaking both.
(FAA only)
tAircraft must be capable of continued safe flight after the empennage structure is hit by an 8-lb. bird at cruise speed at sea level.
Engine (EASA/FAA)
At typical initial climb speed and takeoff thrust:
tMust be able to ingest a single bird weighing 4-8 lb. (dependent on engine inlet area) without catching fire, suffering an
uncontained failure, or becoming impossible to shut down. Must maintain at least 50% thrust for 14 min. after ingestion.
Requirements must be met without thrust level movement for at least 15 sec. after ingestion.
tMust be able to ingest a single bird weighing as much as 3 lb. without losing more than 25% thrust. Must operate after the impact
for at least 5 min. without hazardous conditions.
tMust be able to simultaneously ingest up to seven medium-sized birds of various sizes (0.772.5 lb.), with number and size depending
on engine inlet area, and continue generating usable but slowly decreasing minimum thrust for 20 min. after ingestion.
tMust be able to simultaneously ingest up to 16 small birds (each weighing approximately 1.9 lb.), with number of birds
depending on engine inlet area, and continue generating usable but slowly decreasing minimum thrust for 20 min. after ingestion.
Small Aircraft: EASA CS-23, FAA Part 23
tWindshield integrity: Impact with a single bird weighing 2 lb. at maximum approach flap speed must leave at least one pane intact
with sufficient forward vision to allow for continued safe flight.
Large Helicopter: FAA Part 29
tMust have a structure that will ensure continued safe flight and landing after impact with a single bird weighing up to 2.2 lb.
at the lesser of never-exceed speed (Vne) or maximum speed in level flight (Vh) at 8,000-ft. altitude.
SOURCE: SKYBRARY

ed study helps an airport dene specic risks and sets the parameters for
crafting a plan to address them.
Typically, wildlife has been considered an act of God or nature, Weller
says. People understand it is a threat
like so many other threats. [But] people
who say you cant do anything about it
are not understanding wildlife.
As airports become more aware of
what they need to do to reduce strike
risks, they are better positioned to
leverage the USDAs expertise. The
agency has been working on airport issues since the 1950s, and partners with
the FAA to manage data and support
wildlife mitigation efforts. USDA has
full-time biologists at about 140 civil
and military airports, says Mike Begier, the departments Airport Wildlife
Hazards Program national coordinator.
The agency contracts with hundreds of
other airports to conduct assessments,
create plans and carry out mitigation efforts such as trapping and lethal culling.
While data show that on-airport efforts are yielding desired results, the
Flight 1549 accident sequence spotlighted what many see as the next maAviationWeek.com/awst

jor challenge in airport wildlife mitigation: addressing threats beyond the


airport perimeter. Flight 1549 encountered the ock of Canada geese about
8.5 mi. from LaGuardia Airportwell
beyond the area that the airports wildlife plan can address directly.
While strikes above 500-ft. AGL account for only 29% of the total number
of reports in the FAA database, they
make up 43% of the damaging incidents. After Flight 1549, New York City
officials responded with a plan that targeted geese populations on city-owned
land (see page 40). Wildlife mitigation
experts say similar, proactive approaches need to take place elsewhere.
Damaging strikes are showing an
increase outside [the airport] environment, FAAs Weller says. Now is the
time to do something about that. Airports have to put on sales hats and create partnerships with their neighbors.
While active hazard management is
the only way to eliminate threats, industry is developing technology that would
help detect and avoid them. Motivated
by a 2010 National Transportation
Safety Board recommendation, USDA

WorldMags.net

is advancing research into whether


aircraft lights can be modied to help
keep birds away (see page 42)efforts
that could eventually augment existing
certication standards (see table) that
focus on what happens after a bird hits
an aircraft.
Another example is avian radar.
In 2001 the FAA began working on a
system to detect birds at and around
airports. In 2006, the focus shifted to
commercially available, portable radar.
In 2010, FAA-published guidance included a performance specication airports can use to purchase the systems,
andworking with USDA, suppliers
and academiathe FAA continues to
evaluate the technologys effectiveness.
Additional research is examining
the feasibility and practicality of
making avian radar available to pilots
and air traffic controllers. c

Tap the icon in the digital edition


to listen to Aviation Week editors
discuss the advances being made in avian
and wildlife management at airports or go to
AviationWeek.com/Podcast

AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 1, 2014 37

AVIATION SAFETY

WorldMags.net

Tortoise Trouble
Airport in Florida tries articial turf
to contain protected species
John Croft Washington

rying to make gopher tortoises


behave can be a real bear of a
problem. The foot-long, state-protected, 9-lb. grass-eating turtles are particularly fond of the turf in the higher,
dry, sandy areas around the runways at
Orlando Sanford International Airport,
an affinity that has cost the government
and airport hundreds of thousands of
dollars in semi-successful mitigation attempts over the years. Were known as
the gopher tortoise capital of Florida,
says George Speake, vice president of
operations and maintenance at for the
Sanford Airport Authority.
Speakes latest interdictioninstalling articial turf in place of grasswill
cost the airport at least $14 million for
its main runway if a $600,000 FAAsponsored pilot program on 3.5 acres
is successful.
While not a primary hazard for aircraft on the runway, the burrows that

the tortoises dig for shelter (typically


15 ft. long and 6 ft. deep) are a problem
for runway safety areas (RSA), buffer
zones that extend to either side of a
runway centerline and 1,000 ft. off each
end point. The FAA requires airports to
keep the RSA terrain clear of humps,
ruts and depressions to minimize damage or injuries in the event of a runway
excursion, underrun or overrun. That
encompasses a substantial amount of
real estate, given Sanfords 11,000-ft.long primary runway, for which the
safety area extends out 125 ft. from each
side of the runway.
Handling the threat involves multitiered complexitiesthe tortoises are
a threatened species; both the animal and its burrow are protected by
state law. The airport has permits to
relocate the turtles, and burrows can
be backlled providing there is video
evidence (using a burrow scope) that

the tortoise is no longer in the hole.


Speake says a $300,000 project over
the past several years to ll burrows
along the longest of three runways had
limited success. We excavated more
than 1,000 burrows and by the time we
were done, there were 12 new ones,
says Speake. The FAA wants the airport to consider a wildlife fence, partially buried, around the perimeter to
keep turtles out, but Speake says the
animals would dig under the barrier.
The airport first began considering articial turf in 2007 after talking
to an AvTurf LLC representative at a
trade show. My boss had the idea that
the tortoises wont dig through this
theyll go elsewhere, says Speake. At
a later date, AvTurf provided a quote
to carpet the safety area around the
main runway$14 milliona figure
the FAA deemed too expensive. Aside
from the cost, the FAA in 2011 published an advisory circular that did not
provide blanket authorization for using articial turf in RSAs, stating that
there was not enough data available on
high-speed veer-offs to consider its use.
Articial turf however is approved for
areas adjacent to certain aireld pavements as an alternate to natural turf or
other surface treatments used to sta-

Steepening the slope-side of


on-aireld lakes help make their
shorelines less attractive to birds.

Wily Adaptation

The airport moved to its current


location from the farther-inland Page
Field, Fort Myerss original airport.
While the new location offered growth
opportunitythe facilitys 3.8 million
enplanements in 2013 placed 47th
among U.S. airports, ahead of established elds in bigger cities like Milwaukee and Indianapolisit also presented
challenges.
It was a great idea to move the
airport, but it was stuck right in the
middle of a wetlands system, says
Sarah Brammel, a wildlife biologist
and Southwest Florida regional direcLEE COUNTY PORT AUTHORITY
tor at consultancy ERS.
The airports rst wildlife study, in 1989, helped it prioritize its needs and develop basic recommendations. One early
focus was sandhill cranes nesting on the aireld.
In February 1999, the airport and wildlife mitigation specialist Nick Carter pioneered the use of herding dogs as bird
deterrents, introducing Jet, a border collie. The results were
impressive. Nesting sandhill cranes disappeared, and the number of birds in the airports top four categorieswading birds,

Dogs, fake shoreline among


airports wildlife mitigation tactics

Sean Broderick Atlanta

ome growing commercial airports need decades


to grasp the importance of a well-planned and diligently executed wildlife mitigation effort. Southwest
Florida International Airportopened in 1983 and built on
6,400 acres of wetlands sitting eight miles from the Gulf of
Mexicois not among them.

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38 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 1, 2014

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White pockmarks bordering a plot


of greener articial turf show
the locations of gopher tortoise
(inset) burrows.
nesses of turf and either sand inll or
sand inll with a grass growth inhibitor.
You dont want grass growing on your
articial turf, says Speake. Contractors
lled 140 burrows in the test area and
installed four cameras on the perimeter. The FAA downloads the input to
its Walter J. Hughes Technical Center
in Atlantic City, New Jersey, where en-

waterfowl, crows/blackbirds and raptorsfell 29% year-overyear, despite the fact that Jet worked only twice per day. Birds
became so scarce during Jets patrols that he resorted to herding alligatorsa habit quickly addressed in follow-up training.
The airport has one border collie on staff at a time; this
year it will introduce its fourth. Each is trained to herd, not
hunt, during regular patrols with a handler.
The decision to employ a dog stemmed from the airports
rst comprehensive wildlife assessment, an 11-month process
conducted by the Department of Agriculture and completed
in 1998. Such studies, more detailed than the annual assessments required by FAA, are done by only a handful of airports, says Carter, who wrote a widely used paper on how to
conduct them. They also are the only way to get a complete
picture of year-round wildlife hazards.
The study revealed 113 species on or near the aireld. Most
were birds, 92% of which were wading species, waterfowl, or
crows/blackbirdsa nding that helped land Jet his job.
The detailed wildlife-sighting data were plotted into a geographic information system. The resulting map presented
hazards in different ways, such as by season. The aggregated
data showed high-risk, or red wildlife hazard zones in several areas, including at each end of the airports lone runway.
It was a little scary, Ellen Lindblad, director of the Lee
County Port Authoritys Planning & Environmental Compliance Department, said of the maps revelations. But it [was]
the most important thing we got out of our assessment.
Airport officials leveraged the map to gain approval for sevAviationWeek.com/awst

gineers will analyze


the images for wildlife activity over the
test period.
In July, the FAA
tested the durability of sections of
the turf with an
airport operations
Ford F-150 pickup
truck and an Oshkosh Striker 3000
fire truck. Speake
says the agency is
also using a Braking Availability
Tester device that
simulates an aircraft traveling from the runway into the
turf and stopping. Test results have not
been revealed.
It is too soon to tell if the tortoises
will be deterred. An image from July 6
shows one walking over the turf, but
not attempting to burrow. Images from
May revealed a coyote and a crested caracara. No images of gopher tortoise
activity have been captured on turf;
however, an active gopher tortoise was
observed on the northern edge of the
articial turf, said the FAA in its weekly report on the project. c
ORLANDO SANFORD INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT

bilize shoulders
and safety areas,
the agency stated.
Side benets of articial turf include
keeping the grass
mowers away
f ro m t h e r u n way safety areas.
Speake says articial turf could also
cut down on bird
activity near the
runway, although
a reduction in
bird strikes was
not considered to
be a direct benet.
Given the ongoing liability concerns
of an errant aircraft rolling over a tortoise hole, the FAA last year decided to
fund the installation of a 3.5-acre test
site of articial turf at the approach end
of the shorter Runway 18 at the airport,
in part to collect data over a one-year
period on the relative safety of highspeed veer-offs or high-speed emergency vehicle operations that could be
used to update the advisory circular.
AvTurf completed the installation in
November, which included four discrete
sections that have two different thick-

eral projects, including removing hundreds of acres of vegetation near the runway ends to deter birds. The assessment
led to a three-phase, multiyear wildlife mitigation plan and
highlighted two separate but related problems with on-airport
water features that were too habitable for avian visitors.
One, a 160-acre stormwater lake, suffered severe erosion
during storms that hit soon after its 2001 construction. The
lakes edges were designed with the FAAs required 2:1 slope,
a 26-deg. drop into the water meant to make the shoreline less
attractive to wildlife. But the combination of the steep slope
and the lakes size left it susceptible to erosion from waves, and
several storms, including hurricanes, took their toll.
Engineers offered several options, including installing
natural riprapthe rocky rubble that armors a shoreline
higher up the banks. Geostar Corp.s Hydrotex product,
which creates an articial bank by pumping ne aggregate
concrete into mesh-like mats covering a restored slope, was
chosen. The cost: $3.1 million. The result: nearly 2 mi. of concrete shoreline that starts above the water and runs into the
lake. Birds do not like it, waves cannot move it, andunlike
natural riprapit does not require regular replenishment.
Lake 4, built in the airports construction phasewhen the
FAA mandated shallow, bird-friendly shorelinesalso needed
steepening and deepening, Lindblad says. It was determined
that a $386,000 project combining a 2:1 sideslope topped with
natural riprap would suffice. Post-construction, the few birds
seen near the rebuilt Lake 4 shoreline have been perched on a
fence, away from the water and out of the border collies reach. c

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AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 1, 2014 39

AVIATION SAFETY

WorldMags.net

Animal Magnetism

JFKs site brings unique challenges for wildlife mitigation efforts


Sean Broderick Atlanta
n Nov. 1, 1975, John F. Kennedy
International Airport (JFK),
battling a rise in dangerous
wildlife strikes, introduced a more aggressive bird hazard control program.
Emphasis was placed on proactive
patrolling from 6 a.m. to dusk, in contrast to traditional reactive efforts that
targeted existing hazards identied by
pilots or ground personnel.
Developed and tested during that
summer, the start date could not have
been more timely. Octobers damaging
bird strike total was a year-to-date high
of sevenall involving major air carriers. Five of the strikes led to engine
changes.
Twelve days into the program, JFK
officials learned rsthand that the new
approach needed further renement.
As an Overseas National Airways
(ONA) DC-10 accelerated on takeoffroll down Runway 13R, a ock of gulls
rose in the trijets path. When the manmade bird met the natural ones, at least
six gulls were ingested into the No. 3
engine, causing it to disintegrate, catch
re and separate from the aircraft. The
pilots rejected the takeoff, but could not
stop the aircraft on the runway. The excursion and subsequent re, fed for 36
hr. by fuel that pooled in a storm drain,
destroyed the aircraft.
Measured in lives lost, it was an inexpensive lesson. All 139 persons onboard
the DC-10 were ONA employees trained
in evacuation procedures. All of them
survived, leaving dozens of 3-5-lb. gulls
as the only fatalities.
The NTSBs December 1976 nal report on the accident cited JFKs inadequate wildlife mitigation as a contributor. But the airport did not wait around
for a mandate. A day after the accident,
the airport launched Operation Birdwatch, and the following March JFK

RAY HARVEY

employees joined Port Authority of


New York and New Jersey colleagues
for wildlife mitigation training.
While the responses did not solve
JFKs bird-strike problem, they underscore how a successful program operates. Since the ONA accident, JFKthe
first airport with its own bird-strike
databasehas deployed or tested tactics, from insect control to avian radar,
in response to shifting wildlife hazards.
Weve come a long way in the last
four decades, says Laura Francoeur,
the Port Authoritys chief wildlife biologist, at the recent Bird Strike Committee annual meeting.
The evolution has been by necessity. Built on marshland and planned
for 1,000 acres, the 4,930-acre facility
has grown into one of the 25 busiest airports in the world. Factor in that much
of JFKs border is shorelinewith 10
golf courses and a 9,000-acre wildlife
refuge within a 5-mi. radiusand the
setting is ideal for a wildlife strike.
JFK also is a stopover for migratory
birds, which sometimes pause for more
than an en route rest. In 1979, laughing
gulls began nesting off the end of Runway 4L for the first time in 50 years.
As the population grew, gull strikes rose
from two in 1979 to 279 in 1989.
After exhausting the alternatives,
the airport adopted a lethal culling
program for gulls heading over the air-

port, with shooters manning stations just outside the perimeter


fence along Jamaica Bay. The
shooting, done from May to August to coincide with high activ-

ity in chick-rearing season, helped cut


gull strikes 74% by 1995.
The airport adopted a falconry program in 1996, but tactics such as lethal
shooting proved more effective for containing large birds, so the falcon program was discontinued in 2011. With the
laughing gulls under control, the shooting program expanded to other highthreat species, including Canada geese
and mute swans. It also extends into the
fall to combat other types of gulls.
In 2009, JFKs longtime diamondback terrapin migration took center
stage when an unusually high number
of the reptiles emerged from Jamaica
Bay during the annual June-July nesting season. The migration often takes
the terrapins across Runway 4L and
a nearby taxiway. Port Authority and
Agriculture Department employees
have been rounding up the terrapins
for years, but the numbers emerging in
recent years proved to be too much for
this method, and regular ight delays
and international headlinesensued.
JFK responded by installing plastic
barriers to keep the terrapins off of the
aireld; the project ended this year. Early returns are positive: terrapin sightings on the aireld are down 68% from
2012the peak year, Francoeur says.
She notes that half of terrapins collected
this year are returneesonce in hand
they are marked to help with tracking
before being moved to safetyan indication that the population is stablizing.
An even higher-prole wildlife incident, US Airways Flight 1549s Jan. 15,
2009, encounter with Canada geese
and now-famous landing in the Hudson River helped jump-start an effort
to remove geese from property within 7
mi. of JFK and LaGuardia airports. The
effort has helped cut JFK goose strikes
by 43% since 2006, Francoeur says. c

An increase in the number of large birds ying near


the airport prompted JFK operators to begin an
on-property shooting program in 2001.

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40 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 1, 2014

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Taming Tactics

High-tech meets old-school at BWI


when it comes to wildlife mitigation
John Croft Linthicum, Maryland

AviationWeek.com/awst

JOHN CROFT/AW&ST

onathan Leddons office is his silver Chevrolet Silverado


crew-cab pickup truck in which he carries the tools of his
tradebinoculars, truck horn, hawk traps and an assortment of rearmsfor his thrice-daily, 2-hr. low-speed cruises
around the perimeter of Baltimore-Washington International
(BWI) Thurgood Marshall Airport.
Compared to the high-tech aircraft commercial jets landing and departing while he works, Leddons modus operandi
is strikingly low-techvisually spot birds and other wildlife
and coax them away from runways and ightpaths. While his
tools might seem archaic, such efforts by U.S. Department of
Agriculture (USDA) wildlife biologists stationed at 140 U.S.
civilian and military airports have cut the number of damaging bird strikes down on the airport property, according
to the latest USDA and FAA statistics (see page 34). Along
with actively dispersing problematic wildlife, biologists ensure
the airport follows its
FAA-approved wildlife management plan,
which in large part
involves habitat modications to discourage
animals coming onto
the property.
The FAA-certified,
USDA wildlife biologist Leddon, aided by
three department
technicians, manages
wildlife at BWI and
nearby Martin State
USDAs Jonathan Leddon scans
Airport, a general
the BWI terminal for birds. Tools
aviation and business
to disperse wildlife include proaviation reliever site.
pane cannons around the aireld.
Along with BWI operations staff, which
he has trained, the team patrols the sites on a daily basis.
Leddon demonstrated the route and his tools on the morning of Aug. 21, a slow day with minimal bird activity and no
mammal action. In the two years since Leddon has been in
the position, the airport has recorded 136 wildlife strikes (133
involved birds; one a turtle, and two microbats), according
to the FAA wildlife strike database, resulting in ve incidents
with minor damage, one of which involved a turkey vulture and
a Southwest Airlines Boeing 737-300, and one substantial damage incident last September when a Delta Air Lines Airbus
A320 hit a bald eagle 2 mi. from the airport. Leddon says the
airport has a Fish and Wildlife Service harassment permit that
allows him to scare off eagles in the vicinity, primarily using
pyrotechnics. One eagle nest is about 3 mi. from the airport.
While the biologists are primarily focused on the aireld, they
are also responsible for clearing the approach and departure
corridors out to 5 nm, a job that requires meetings with communities, especially where a pond or lake is involved.

While eagles are a considerable hazard given their large


size, most of the daily grind this time of year involves scaring
off small ocks of European starlings and mourning doves. In
the spring ocks of robins can be a problem, as can kestrel
falconsraptors that Leddons team often catch and relocate
using noose-style traps. Other raptors, including red-tailed
hawks, are caught using goshawk traps, tagged and relocated. Threats cycle with the seasons, but also with rain events,
which can draw gulls and European starlings into pooling water on the ramps. Mammalian threats include foxes, ground
hogs, raccoons and beavers. Most deer in the vicinity are kept
out of the active area with high fences.
On our clockwise route around the airport, Leddon pointed
out several ocks of mourning doves near a stand of woods by
a construction zone near the end of a closed runway, an area
birds are drawn to because grass seeding is underway. While
ocks are obviously more dangerous, Leddon says even ones
and twos draw his attention.
The doves scattered when he exited the truck with a pyro
pistol. The gun uses .22-cal. blanks to propel and ignite a
banger or screamer shell. The banger makes a single loud
crack; the screamer puts out a high-pitched whine for approximately 3 sec. as it ies in a direction that ideally chases
birds away from active runways. For birds at a higher altitude,
a cracker shell is used. Sometimes the built-in horn in the
truck is enough to roust the birds.
Placed strategically around the site are 12
propane cannons that make a loud bang by ring a shot of hot air. Leddon activated one cannon at the south end of the aireld by typing
a code into the radio in his truck. BWI technicians can also remotely activate the devices
from the operations tower. Once activated, the
cannons rotate and re intermittently in different directions. Birds can become familiar

with certain harassment techniques, so you have to switch


techniques to stay ahead, Leddon says.
Proper habitat control can head off some of the problems
before they start. Leddon points out an area of phragmites
the airport cut down last year because of problems with starlings and blackbirds ying across the runways to roost there.
Grasses are also removed by controlled burns. Monthly wildlife
hazard working group meetings with the airport and the FAA
include a review of construction plans that might create unintended attractionsopen ledges for roostingfor example.
A wildlife background makes you attuned to certain circumstances that can be addressed early, says Leddon. c

Tap the icon in the digital edition of AW&ST to see a video


detailing a day in the life of a biologist managing avian and
ground-based wildlife at a major U.S. airport, or go to
AviationWeek.com/video
WorldMags.net

AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 1, 2014 41

AVIATION SAFETY

WorldMags.net

Strike Solutions

The ongoing pursuit of bird-strike deterrence


has yielded a mix of intriguing approaches
John Croft Washington

USDA wildlife biologists are using a radio-controlled aircraft to determine whether pulsating
landing lights at certain wavelengths can warn
Canada geese of an impending collision.
U.S. AGRICULTURE DEPARTMENT

ildlife mitigation at airports,


while effective to a point, can
do only so much to separate
birds from aircraft, particularly in the
climb, descent or cruise phases of a
flight. Certification standards, which
harden an airframe and engines to
birds of a certain size (see page 34),
are not foolproof either, because birds
in a natural environment can be larger
or more populous than the standards
recognized.
The resulting risk, made famous
in January 2009 when Capt. Chesley
Sully Sullenberger so deftly guided
his US Airways Airbus A320 glider
into the frigid waters of the Hudson
River after Canada geese hits on both
of Flight 1549s CFM56 engines, is a
driver for emerging technologies both
on and off aircraft. Some of the research and applications are designed
to track wildlife to provide safe passage; others are geared to repel the
animals, or to fool their sensory sys-

tems (which are tuned by evolution for


anti-predator behavior) to impel them
to get out of the way.
The latter is the goal of ongoing research at the U.S. Department of Agricultures (USDA) national wildlife research center in Sandusky, Ohio. The
decade-long work gained new importance in 2010 when the NTSB issued a
Flight 1549 recommendation to USDA
to work with the FAA to develop and
implement innovative technologies
that can be installed on aircraft that
would reduce the likelihood of a bird
crash.
The Agriculture Department briefed
the NTSB on its latest ndings in July,
and although researchers do not have
a nal solution, they are making progress. This project is essentially investigating how current aircraft lighting
systems can be tweaked so aircraft
are more visible to birds sooner and
then birds can make decisions to get
out of the way more quickly, USDA

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42 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 1, 2014

states. [Our] research indicates that


this is feasible.
On-aircraft preventatives to date
have largely been supported by empirical or anecdotal evidence rather than
scientific studies. Some pilots have
noted that switching landing lights on
and off at certain times leads to a reduction in bird strikes; and there is a
long-standing belief by some that the
offset swirled spinner markings on jet
enginesactually put in place to alert
mechanics and ground crew that an engine is runningexist to make the spinners look like the eyes of a large hawk
to frighten birds away. Boeing says the
idea that marked spinners can deter
bird strikes is a common misconception with no scientic basis.
All Nippon Airways tested the spinner theory starting in 1985 when it
painted black-and-white double-offset
markings (or swirls) on the spinners
of its Boeing 747 and Boeing 767 eets.
In a 1988 report for Bird Strike Committee Europe, researchers said the
preliminary data on the spinners made
it difficult to arrive at any denitive
conclusions, despite the fact that portions of the data suggested the markings had some positive effects in reducing bird strikes. However, results could
also have been linked more with yearly
variations in bird habitats or changes
in the carriers route structures.
USDA has been scientifically researching strike deterrence via onboard lights for more than a decade, a
time-consuming process given all the
variables that must be considered.
Mike Begier, national coordinator
for the USDAs Airport Wildlife Hazards Program, says the most recent
testing in Ohio with captive Canada
geese showed that the approach of a
radio-controlled aircraft with landing lights pulsing twice per second (2
Hz) prompted an alert response in the
geese more than 4 sec. before similar
approaches with the lights off. Researchers say the time difference corresponds to the geese seeing the pulsing aircraft when 1,325 ft. away versus
856 ft., a difference that could give a
goose more time to avert a collision.
A number of years ago, we collected
birds hit and knocked to the runway
still whole at John F. Kennedy International Airport and we did autopsies,
says Begier. We found that the birds
were being hit in the back or rear, indicating that they were trying to ee
the plane, but didnt have enough time
AviationWeek.com/awst

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to do it. Begier says the sudden onset of commercial aviation is in part


to blame. Weve only been ying for
about 100 years, he says. Birds have
never experienced something that can
move as fast as we can with our vehicles. They have not evolved a mechanism to cope with that.
Ongoing and future work on the topic
at Sandusky includes quantifying what
certain animals perceive in terms of the
wavelength and pulse, or icker, characteristics of the lights, including both
incandescent and LEDs. The end goal
is to come up with a formula for pulsing frequency and bulb wavelength that
will be tuned to the sensory systems of
certain problematic birds, the rst of
which most likely will be Canada geese.
Along with radio-controlled aircraft,
researchers also are beginning to use
2-D video screens inside the lab to test
the geese with images of oncoming vehicles and lighting modes, speeding up
preliminary studies before moving into
the more expensive on-aircraft trials.
Oregon-based Precise Flight already offers a pulsing controller for
landing lights to a large portion of the
business aviation community and to
several airlines. The Pulselite system
individually cycles an aircrafts generic landing lights
at 0.75 Hz to make
it more visible as a
collision-avoidance
tool, but the system
also provides longer bulb life. Just
as important, says
Precise Flight, is
that birds notice the
lights sooner and
get out of the way.
Qantas equipped
its 737 eet with the
system after a trial
effort in 2005-07
using five 737-400s
BOEING
and five 737-800s.
Results from the trial, according to Precise Flight, showed
that the daylight-only reduction in bird
strikes for the 737-800 was 49%, while
the day-night reduction was 66%. The
reduction numbers for the 737-400
were somewhat less, but significant
as well. Other airlines using Pulselite
include QantasLink for its Bombardier
Q400s and Alaska Airlines and its regional subsidiary, Horizon Air.
While there is empirical evidence
that Pulselite is effective as a birdAviationWeek.com/awst

strike inhibitor, USDA says more


work needs to be done in terms of a
controlled scientic study of its effects,
including a comparative study of nonequipped aircraft on similar routes.
Sparked by the Miracle on the Hudson incident, more exotic technologies
are brewing in the minds of inventors,
including at Boeing. Aircraft birdstrike protection, a U.S. patent application submitted in May, describes
a manned or unmanned aircraft that
flies approach and departure corridors at an airport from the surface
to 3,000 ft. (the altitude below which
90% of bird strikes occur) spraying
methyl anthranilate, a bird repellent,
from a tank located in the empennage.
The spraying aircraft would clear the
air, so to speak, for a bank of aircraft
arriving or departing at the airport. A
second patent application from earlier
this year, titled Strike detection using
video images, proposes to use a video
camera onboard the aircraft to track
and identify incoming birds, creating a
strike report on a display for the pilot
that includes a verication of when a
bird will strike the aircraft, the location on the airframe or engines where
it will hit and the size of the bird. While
not issuing avoidance maneuvers, the

A Boeing patent application proposes using onboard video cameras


and computer algorithms to track
movements of birds and, in the
case of collision, provide pilots with
information about the impact.
strike report is important as it can
alert the crew to the seriousness of the
strike in terms of the hit location and
the size of the bird. For a certain size
bird hitting a particular area, the pilot

WorldMags.net

may be able to continue a ight rather


than diverting to the nearest airport.
Although a bird strike may not affect
aircraft safety, aircraft operator or regulatory rules, based on an abundance
of caution, may call for diversion or
turn back if a bird strike on the aircraft is suspected to have occurred,
Boeing says in the application. As a
result, bird strikes, and suspected bird
strikes, may be the cause of signicant
costs for airlines and other aircraft operators.
Closer to the ground, avian radar
systems appear to be making progress. The FAA is developing a concept
of operations for the systems based on
experience at some airports, including
Chicago OHare and Dallas/Ft Worth,
where several prototype systems have
been installed. An FAA advisory circular describes avian radar as providing
the ability to monitor approach and
departure corridors several miles from
the airport, where previously birds
could only be spotted with binoculars,
if at all. Limitations on the technology
include erroneous ground returns, or
echoes, and a time-delay in detecting
an object, which can cause an aircrafts
position with respect to the bird to have
a resolution of 0.25 mi. or more when
flying 250 mph or
more.
Meanwhile the U.S.
military plans to lease
a bird-strike-avoidance radar system
for its fast-jet training center in Kingsville, Texas. During
the past three years,
the naval air station
says it has incorporated the technology
into day-to-day operations, establishing
procedures that can
provide pilots with
real-time early warnings of problematic
birds in the terminal airspace immediately surrounding the airport. The radar
also can provide insight into long-term
trends in bird activity, says the Navy.
Although it is promising, Begier says
the nascent technology is not yet comprehensive. We dont have a good handle on how well the radar sees, and what
types of birds it is seeing. Is it a goose,
gull or robin? says Begier. Thats important. In a risk-management setting,
we dont want to be crying wolf. c

AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 1, 2014 43

ENGINEERING

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Replacement
Cycle

Thermoplastics could nally nd


more applications in aerospace
Thierry Dubois Lyon, France
hermoplastic composites are gradually gaining ground
over thermosets and metal. Although they offer numerous benets, the trend has been relatively slow, as the
aerospace industrys investment in thermoset production
tooling is recent. But thanks to aerospaces growing need for
higher volumes, the move may now accelerate, piggybacking
on the automotive sectors shift to thermoplastics.
The difference between thermoplastics and thermosets lies
in the resin (the matrix) rather than the bers (the reinforcement). When heated, a thermoplastic resin softens and melts;
when cooled down, it can resolidify without losing any property. The solidication process involves no chemical curing.
Advantages of thermoplastics include notably faster manufacturing and better performance.

At the laboratory stage is a full horizontal tailplane, including the stabilizer and elevators. We have manufactured a
demonstrator for an aircraft the size of a bizjet, says Richard
Cobben, Fokker Aerostructures technology vice president.
A 10% weight reduction can be expected compared to thermoset material, he asserts.
Airbus appears relatively conservative on the A350 XWB,
which uses thermoplastic clips and brackets. The A380 has
thermoplastic J-nose leading edges, adds Christian Weimer,
a composite-material expert with Airbus Group Innovations.
On the Boeing 787, Montreal-based Marquez supplies thermoplastic air ducts for personal service units. Designed with
glass ber, the part is said to be much lighter and is much
quicker to produce than comparable ones5 min. versus 6
hr. Boeing did not answer Aviation Week requests for more
details on thermoplastics on the 787.
Aerostructure specialist Daher-Socata in July announced
it had completed the construction of a lighter, cheaper carbon-ber wingbox demonstrator dubbed Ecowingbox. Both
thermoset and thermoplastic resins were tried, even for the
main spar. Eventually, the main spar was made with a thermoset resin. Thermoplastics can be found elsewhere in the
wingbox, such as the stringers.
In cabin interiors, thermoplastics have been increasingly
used for the thinner part design they enable, their straightforward manufacturing and their excellent behavior in ame,
smoke and toxicity tests.
They are now beginning to be chosen
for more critical features. The European
Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) in April
certied Expliseats titanium seat, which

Daher-Socata has built a wingbox


demonstrator that uses thermoplastics for some parts.

Some 15-20 years ago, thermoplastics were tried and rejected, including using them in the wing of Boeings X-32
demonstrator for the Joint Strike Fighter program. At the
time, however, suitable processing technologies such as ber
placement and thermoforming were still unavailable. Moreover, the expected demand for thousands of military aircraft
dwindled down to hundreds. Thus, the advantage thermoplastics have in faster manufacturing for higher volumes was
no longer of interest.
The latest advancements show that thermoplastics can
be used in more, increasingly large primary structure components. Fokker manufactures the horizontal tail of the indevelopment AgustaWestland AW169 medium twin helicopter. This yields a 15% weight savings over previous composite
technology, Fokker claims, thanks to the stiffness of the material. The Dassault Falcon 5X, scheduled to perform its rst
ight next year, and the in-service Gulfstream G650 business
jets have their rudder and elevators made of thermoplastics.

passed 16g crash tests yet is twice as light


as the nearest competition, according to its
designers. It features a composite-titanium
structure, for which Netherlands-based
TenCate supplied a thermoplastic resin.
The seat weighs 8.8 lb. per passengerit
is offered as integrated three-seat assembliesand divides the part count by 10.
DAHER-SOCATA
Fokkers Cobben sees two main benets
in thermoplastics. First, the very high toughness of their matrices, which allow the laminates to be thinner and thus create lighter products. Second, the stamp-forming and welding
techniques that can be used with thermoplastics are lowercost processes.
Tim Greene, Greene Tweeds product manager, composites,
provides more details on the production side. In aerospace
thermoplastics, Greene Tweed specializes in manufacturing
complex geometric parts, notably by compression molding.
Thermosets have a dened heat-up rate, curing time and
cool-down rate. Therefore, the material dictates how long
it takes to manufacture a part. There is very little you can
do to cut a lengthy cure cycle, which can be many hours,
Greene says.
Thermoplastics have no such defined cycle, however;
so the driver is the equipmenttooling, press, etc. Greene
Tweed emphasizes that many thermoplastic processing techniques take place out of an autoclavean expensive, pres-

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44 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 1, 2014

AviationWeek.com/awst

WorldMags.net

surized oven that often causes production bottlenecks. This


creates a potential for faster processing.
Moreover, once a production process has been set up, it
can be considered as very reliable, without any deviation,
Airbuss Weimer says. This may be different from thermoset
pre-impregnated ber manufacturing.
Thermoplastics also allow for automated welding. However, while welding (which can involve ultrasound, resistance,
induction, vibration, etc.) is widely used in automotive manufacturing, it is not in widespread use in aerospace. Only a
few production applications can be found. Some techniques
are not mature in aerospace, partly because of the higher
requirements and higher temperatures, Greene says.
The butt-joining technique that involves only the resin of
the parts was discovered 10 years ago, Fokkers Cobben remembers. It has been tested and validated on fuselage panels,

looking at applications in other industries in which weight


reduction is a key driver, such as aerospace.
In France, Onera and mechanical engineering center Cetim have manufactured the rst fully composite automotive
wishbone suspension. The part combines light weight, high
mechanical performance and swift production, according to
its promoters. It is made of a thermoplastic matrix reinforced
with carbon bers.
The weight is cut to 4.4 lb. from 7 lb. However, Maire could
not provide a price estimate. As it is a prototype, only the cost

EASA has certied Expliseats new economy seat that


incorporates a thermoplastic resin developed by TenCate.
under the Tapas joint research project with Airbus, TenCate
and other partners.
Thermoplastics inherently have better toughness and
are more repairable. This opens the door to using them in
impact-prone areas. New, toughened thermosets already
include thermoplastic particles to improve their impact resistance, Greene says.
Thermoplastics are more repairable, but we are still looking for the Holy Grailremelting the resin in the damaged
area on the ramp, Cobben explains. It is do-able in principle
but not so easy in practice. The resin softens, so a technician
would need some tooling to support the part.
The idea of using thermoplastic composites for those components that are exposed to collisions has limits, however.
One could think of using them on a single-aisle fuselage, as
such aircraft can be found on a busy apron several times a
day. But a difficulty is inherent in the size of the fuselage. The
smaller the diameter, the thinner the fuselage and therefore
the greater sensitivity to impact, Cobben says.
Finally, another benet is thermoplastics recyclability.
Reheating the matrix polymer allows it to be remolded into
something else. But the recycled part generally should be
used only for non-structural application, as reforming moves
the bers around.
All these benefits are worth investing in if production
volumes are high enough. Thermoplastic resins are more
expensive, but prices could decrease sharply if demand picks
up, including demand from the automotive sector, notes
Jean-Franois Maire, director of the materials and structures
department at Frances Onera aerospace research center.
This is why Fokkers Cobben sees Japans push for thermoplastics in automotive manufacturing as good for us because
it increases volumes.
But thermoplastics need to make their case versus thermosets. There is a reluctance to change, especially if OEMs and
suppliers have invested in their current development and manufacturing processes using thermosets, says Kim Choate, Sabics
director of marketing for mass transportation and innovative
plastics. Sabic is a Saudi Arabian petrochemical group.
Two projects that emerged recently in the car industry
may have implications for aircraft. Sabic and Switzerlands
Kringlan Composites have developed the worlds rst thermoplastic composite wheel for cars. Sabic and Kringlan are
AviationWeek.com/awst

of the material may be representative$9.50. At least the


cost of the conventional wishbone suspension, made of metal,
is known$57. Producing one item takes just 8 min. Onera
engineers hope to reuse these technologies in aerospace.
In Enschede, Netherlands, the Thermoplastic composites
research center (TPRC) opened its laboratory in 2012 and
has attracted Boeing, Fokker, TenCate, Daher-Socata and
the university of Twente. The TPRCs activities have taken
place in aerospace so far, but automotive has just been added.
Thus the future of thermoplastics in aircraft looks tightly
linked to their use in cars. And the ongoing aircraft production ramp-up is spurring interest.
But some challenges remain. For example, todays thermoplastics are not compatible with thickness variations, Airbuss Weimer says. According to Sabics Choate, they may not
be the best alternative in certain instances, such as supersonic applications that require extreme heat tolerances, or
when very strong chemical resistance or an extremely high
strength-to-weight ratio is required. Knowledge still has to be
gained in durability and behavior against fatigue, Maire adds.
Maybe the main problem is a chicken-and-egg issue. The
lack of infrastructure and understanding results in a perceived risk, Greene believes. This slows down thermoplastic
adoption, he says. So will thermoplastics eventually take
over thermosets? Experts agree that thermosets will not be
replaced for specic environments or when only a small number of parts needs to be manufactured. Greene sees the main
potential for his company being the replacement of complexshape metallic parts for secondary and semi-structural applicationscovers, enclosures, fairings, etc. We are looking
at the remaining 50% or so of metal in an aircraft; the idea
is not to replace thermosets but to replace the remaining
metal, he says. c

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AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 1, 2014 45

DEFENSE

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Alternative
Income

RAF refueling provider wants


NATO to use its surplus capacity
Tony Osborne London
irTankerthe company that provides the U.K.s airto-air refueling capabilitywants to help ll NATOs
shortfall in tanker aircraft.
The consortium, which recently took delivery of its 10th
Airbus A330-200 Multi-Role Tanker Transport (MRTT) out
of a planned eet of 14, hopes to be able to offer its services
to other NATO nations, a move which it says would provide
an income to the U.K. government and offset some of the
tankers cost of its operation by the Royal Air Force (RAF).
A Europe-wide tanker shortfall was seen as a critical issue
in Operation Unied Protector, the mission over Libya back
in 2011, and AirTanker hopes some of its aircraft can be used
to ll any similar future gap. The consortium is seeking to
have the subject of pooling and sharing of tankers as well as
civilian-congured transport aircraft on the agenda at the
NATO summit in Newport, Wales, early this month.
AirTankers business model is based on the provision of
nine A330 MRTTsknown in the RAF as Voyagersin a
core eet that supports the day-to-day inight refueling and
strategic transport operations of the RAF, with the remaining ve of the expected 14 providing a surge eet, a wartime
reserve that also can be used by AirTanker for third-party
work such as the recent deal to provide one of those ve
aircraft to charter carrier Thomas Cook Airlines for three
years (AW&ST June 30, p. 44). But the RAF is keen to nd
roles for the other four A330s.
Voyager offers a real opportunity, says AirTanker CEO
Phill Blundell. This is something positive we can offer to
other nations, while delivering value back to the taxpayer.
Blundell sees AirTanker as potentially being able to provide aerial refueling services in two ways: providing the capability on an ad-hoc basis to NATO air arms that might need
to be able to deploy aircraft for a long distance or for training, rather like the service provided by commercial company

Omega Air Tanker; or perhaps on a longer-term lease that


might see the aircraft own by pilots from a foreign air force
in that registration, but working within the rules of the U.K.s
military airworthiness authorities.
The European Defense Agency (EDA) is examining the
possible purchase of a eet of tankers on behalf of Belgium,
Netherlands, Norway, Poland and Spain.
The agency is studying which of the tankers available on
the market, the A330 MRTT or Boeing KC-46, is the most
suitable, but if the A330 is selected, AirTanker could provide
training for the foreign crews and even aircraft on an interim
basis. The consortium is still considering the addition of an
aerial refueling boom system, which was not considered a
requirement by top brass when the Future Strategic Tanker
Aircraft program was drawn up, despite the air arm operating two aircraft types that can be refueled only by boomequipped tankers, including the RC-135 Rivet Joint.
One of the driving points in the push to have the A330s
used as tankers and not in the civilian charter market is so
AirTanker does not have to recongure the aircraft unnecessarily.
When AirTanker takes possession of the A330s, they are
delivered as tankers from Airbus Defense and Space following their conversion from passenger aircraft in Madrid,
but returning them to a civilian-certicated conguration
requires that they be kept in a hangar for as long as a month
for the military equipment to be removed.
This procedure will be put to the test shortly when the
latest aircraft, which wears the AirTanker livery, is turned
back into a standard A330 and put onto the U.K. civil register
as G-VYGJ. This will allow that A330 to be used for long-haul
U.K. Defense Ministry service to the Falkland Islands.
AirTanker must keep one aircraft on the U.K. civil register in order to retain its Air Operators Certicate, which
includes the companys civil Extended-range Twin Operations certication. Once converted, G-VYGJ will replace AirTankers current civil-registered A330-200, G-VYGG, which
was delivered as a standard passenger-congured aircraft.
G-VYGG then will be own to Madrid for conversion to the
MRTT conguration and be redelivered in 2015.
Meanwhile, the RAF has accepted the Voyager capability
into full service, declaring the eet fully operational at the
end of July with all the key clearances in place for refueling the Euroghter Typhoon, Panavia Tornado GR4 and the
Lockheed Martin C-130J Hercules. However, the Boeing E-3D
Sentry is yet to be cleared. c

AirTanker hopes it can fulll some of the


tanker needs of Europe and NATO with its
surge eet of A330 MRTT Voyagers.

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46 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 1, 2014

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AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 1, 2014 49

Viewpoint

BY SCOTT PACE AND


RICK TUMLINSON

WorldMags.net

Not a Replay,
A Stepping Stone
he Moon is the next world for humanity to
explore and turn into a new homeeven as
we push out into the deeper ocean of space.
Forty-ve years ago, a few of us wandered her surface, yet we turned away, not realizing the importance of what we had doneor what could be done.
Now it is clearly time to return and, by learning
how to live there, to prepare ourselves to plant the
seeds of humanity on the red sands of Mars.
Unfortunately, current national space policy,
while calling for missions to asteroids and Mars,
leaves the Moon out completelyan approach
the National Research Council says is unlikely to
work. The International Space Station (ISS) has
helped train us to operate continuously in low
Earth orbit, to build large structures and even
carry on commercial activities in a community of
international partners.

Space policy debates are


rarely about policy. Instead,
we debate destinations,
details and designs.

An asteroid-redirect mission or an Apollo 8-like


yby of Mars are potentially useful, but they lack a
larger context for explaining their value. The same
challenge exists for government-developed launchers, engines and spacecraft. Add to this the end of
the space shuttle and many believe we are adrift.
Yet at the same time, as a result of Russian actions
and growing Chinese space capabilities, there is a
renewed urgency to think about the geopolitical importance of space.
The rise of a commercial New Space industry
with its own agenda and motivations separate
from the government creates an opportunity to
have a new conversation about U.S. space policy.
Unfortunately, space policy debates are rarely
about policy. Instead, we debate the destinations,
details and designs of space systems rather than
the overarching rationales such as Why do we
send people into space? and How can the U.S.
use human space activities to advance its interests and values?

There is an international consensus that Mars is


and should be the long-term objective for human
spaceight. Most of us agree cislunar spaceincluding the Moons surfaceshould be the next
destination for human missions beyond low Earth
orbit. We need to learn how to live off the land
if we are to do more on Mars than leave behind
the next set of ags and footprints Creating an
Earth-Moon infrastructure will enable that. Asteroids promise great wealth on the one hand and
threaten our existence on the other. But missions to
them should be part of a larger plan, with the government focused on science and exploration, while
entrepreneurs develop new services and potential
oases along the way.
Commercial contracts could be created to deliver cargo to the lunar surface, similar to commercial cargo delivery to the ISS. The development of
space resources could be rewarded with contracts
to locate, mine and use material on the Moon and
asteroids. This would create an attractive post-ISS
market for U.S. industry that could drive reform
of government procurement processes to leverage
private-sector investment and promote cost reductions through expanding demand for commercially
provided space transportation.
If we are to have an effective American space
strategy, we need to determine what future
humanity might have beyond the Earth, and
what values will be part of that future. As we
know from historical experience with other regions lying beyond national sovereigntysuch
as the high seas, international airspace and
Antarcticathose who show up create the rules,
not those who stay behind. To that end, we need
to chart a course that serves us all friends, allies and industryand blazes a trail that all can
follow to open this frontier.
A U.S.-led drive to develop and settle space,
manifested in a program that starts with the
Moon and works its way to Mars would be a
means of creating broader international space
cooperation. The Moon then becomes not just a
physical destination, but a technical and organizational training ground for a much more complex and rich future in space for all. It is the next
logical step for current and potential international partners to move beyond low Earth orbit.
The Moon is the obvious place for the next giant
leap to begin. c

WorldMags.net

50 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 1, 2014

Pace (left) is a professor of


the practice of international
affairs at George Washington
University and director
of its Space Policy Institute.
Tumlinson is co-founder
of the Space Frontier
Foundation, Orbital
Outtters and Deep Space
Industries, and the founder
of the New Worlds Institute.

AviationWeek.com/awst

WorldMags.net

Still
Time to
Register!

th"OOVBM"WJBUJPO*OEVTUSZ4VQQMJFST$POGFSFODF*O5PVMPVTF
)UFM1BMMBEJBr5PVMPVTF 'SBODFr4FQUFNCFS 

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6:30-8:00 pm
Registration - Htel Palladia Ampithatre, sponsored by "53
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Aerospace Raw Materials & Manufacturers Supply Chain Conference Reception)
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7:30-8:30 am
Registration - Htel Palladia Ampithatre, sponsored by "53
Breakfast - Htel Palladia Restaurant, sponsored by 4"'3"/4BHFN
8:30-8:35
Welcome Address and Introduction
+PBOOB4QFFE
Managing Director, A&D Events
8:35-9:05
AIRBUS
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Opening Address
SVP, Marketing
9:05-9:40
BOEING COMMERCIAL AIRPLANES
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Market and Product Update
Director, Product Marketing
9:40-10:10
AIRBUS
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Market and Product Update
Head of Mktg. Communications
10:10-10:40
Morning Coffee Break - Htel Palladia Patio
10:40-11:10
BOMBARDIER COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT
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Market and Product Update
Director, Marketing
11:10-11:40
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Market and Product Update
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11:40-12:10 pm AVIONS DE TRANSPORT REGIONAL - ATR
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Strong Market Perspectives and Continuous
VP, Marketing
Product Evolution
& Airline Studies
12:15-2:00
Lunch - The Capitoul Room, sponsored by $'.*OUFSOBUJPOBM
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2:00-2:30
PRATT & WHITNEY
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PurePower PW1000G Program Briefing
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2:30-3:00
CFM INTERNATIONAL
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LEAP: Up and Running
LEAP Prod. Marketing Director
3:00-3:30
Afternoon Tea Break - Htel Palladia Patio
3:30-4:00
ROLLS-ROYCE
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Better Power for a Changing World
VP, Customer Strategy & Mktg.
4:00-4:30
SPIRIT AEROSYSTEMS
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Supply Chain Management: Lessons Learned and
VP, UK & Malaysia Operations
Applied from Development Programs
4:30-5:00
ICF INTERNATIONAL
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The E-Enabled Aircraft: Supply Chain Implications VP, Aerospace & MRO
Practice Leader
5:00
Wrap-up
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6:30
Buses leave from Htel Palladia for Dinner at Fondation Bemberg
Transportation sponsored by &OUSBEB(SPVQ
7:00-9:00
Dinner at Fondation Bemberg, Champagne and Wine sponsored by
$*3$03"FSPTQBDF%FGFOTF
9:30-9:45
Buses leave for Htel Palladia

4&15&.#&3 8&%/&4%":
8:00-9:00 am
Breakfast - Htel Palladia Restaurant, sponsored by $PWJOHUPO$PVOUZ "MBCBNB64"
9:00-10:00

AIRCRAFT DELIVERY AND RETIREMENT FORECASTS - Session One


Moderator $IBSMFT"SNJUBHF, Head of European A&D Equity Research, UBS
AIRBUS - "OESFX(PSEPO, Director, Strategic Marketing & Analysis
BOEING - +BNFT3#JMMJOH, Managing Director, Market Analysis
ROLLS-ROYCE - +PIO(SPGG, Director, Customer & Marketing Intelligence

10:00-10:30

Morning Coffee Break - Htel Palladia Patio

10:30-11:30

AIRCRAFT DELIVERY AND RETIREMENT FORECASTS - Session Two


Moderator $IBSMFT"SNJUBHF, Head of European A&D Equity Research, UBS
MTU AERO ENGINES - %S.BSD-F%JMPTRVFS, Director, Market Analysis
SAFRAN SNECMA - "MFYBOESF-BOH, Gen. Mgr., Market Studies & Research, Civil Aviation
DVB BANK - 4JNPO'JOO, Senior Vice President, Aviation Division

11:30-12:15 pm

Forecast Panel Discussions and Questions

12:30-2:00

Lunch - The Capitoul Room, sponsored by $'.*OUFSOBUJPOBM


Wine sponsored by 'MPSJEBT(SFBU/PSUIXFTU

2:00-2:30

BANK OF AMERICA - MERRILL LYNCH


$MJOF'PSOBSP
A View from the City: Aerospace and Airline Trends Managing Director, European
Equities, Aerospace & Defense

2:30-3:00

ROLAND BERGER STRATEGY CONSULTANTS 3PCFSU5IPNTPO


Joint Improvement Plans: Getting OEMs and
Partner
Suppliers to Work Together More Efficiently

3:00-3:30

COUNTERPOINT MARKET INTELLIGENCE


3JDIBSE"QQT
Innovation, Barriers to Entry, and Profitability in the Director
Supply Chain

3:30-4:00

Afternoon Tea Break - Htel Palladia Patio

4:00-4:30

PARAGON EUROPEAN PARTNERS


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Surviving and Growing in a Global Industry:
Managing Director
Strategic Options for European Aerospace Suppliers

4:30-5:00

RENAISSANCE STRATEGIC ADVISORS


Strategic Opportunities and Challenges in the
Aerospace & Defense Industry

1JFSSF$IBP
Managing Partner

5:00-5:25

AIRBUSINESS ACADEMY
Aviation Industry Update: Review and Reflections

8JMMJBN(JCTPO
Head of Aviation Management

5:30

Wrap-up

+PBOOB4QFFE

5:30-7:00

Farewell Reception - Htel Palladia Patio, sponsored by 1BSLFS"FSPTQBDF


Drawing for 1BD.JO model airplanes (must be present to win)

"CPVUUIF$POGFSFODF
SpeedNews is pleased to present its 15th Annual Aviation Industry Suppliers Conference in Toulouse, on September 15-17, 2014.
You will hear from aircraft and engine manufacturers on the status of their programs and learn from experts on important topics affecting our
industry, including delivery and retirement forecasts and a review of the financial status of the aviation industry. We also provide information
pertinent to maintenance companies and subcontractors.
If you are an equipment manufacturer or supplier, involved in raw materials or technologies, marketing, business development or analysis, this
is a conference you wont want to miss. You will leave this conference with a full understanding of the industrys conditions and the ability to
update your companys business plans to stay ahead of the game.

1MFBTFWJTJU4QFFE/FXTDPNGPSNPSFJOGPSNBUJPOPSUPSFHJTUFS
WorldMags.net

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AN ELECTRIC LEAP
FORWARD.

The Boeing 702SP satellite is the rst and only all-electric satellite, a game-changing technological leap.
The all-electric propulsion system dramatically reduces spacecraft weight, creating more affordable launch
options as well as the opportunity to add additional payload in the 3-8kW range. Two 702SP satellites can
even be stacked on a single launch to reduce costs further. Now, thats the power of innovation.

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