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Weekly Technical Analysis Newsletter. We specialize in isolated symmetry wave patterns. This is for education purposes only. No representation is being made that the information will produce trading profits, or limit trading losses. In no event shall Aether Analytics LLC or its employees, representatives, affiliates or contributing authors be held liable for any special, incidental or consequential damages, whatsoever (including without limitation, trading losses or any other losses incurred) arising from the use or inability to use the information contained herein
Weekly Technical Analysis Newsletter. We specialize in isolated symmetry wave patterns. This is for education purposes only. No representation is being made that the information will produce trading profits, or limit trading losses. In no event shall Aether Analytics LLC or its employees, representatives, affiliates or contributing authors be held liable for any special, incidental or consequential damages, whatsoever (including without limitation, trading losses or any other losses incurred) arising from the use or inability to use the information contained herein
Weekly Technical Analysis Newsletter. We specialize in isolated symmetry wave patterns. This is for education purposes only. No representation is being made that the information will produce trading profits, or limit trading losses. In no event shall Aether Analytics LLC or its employees, representatives, affiliates or contributing authors be held liable for any special, incidental or consequential damages, whatsoever (including without limitation, trading losses or any other losses incurred) arising from the use or inability to use the information contained herein
Purely Subjective Approach to Trading Elliott Waves
The presenter does not assume any responsibility whatsoever for the actions of any person viewing or reading the contents of this presentation. The presenter may or may not hold positions in the financial instruments discussed. Trading and investing involve high levels of risk. Future results can be dramatically different from the opinions expressed in this course. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. This presentation is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute any type of investment advice. There are no implied guarantees for the accuracy of information or warranties associated with any representations made in this presentation and the presenter shall not be held liable for any inaccurate or incomplete information or for any improper or incorrect use of the information contained in this course. Bio About Us - Alex Bernal, CMT - President & Chief Analyst Aether Analytic LLC. - Quantitative Analyst and Trading Strategy Architect - Previous Positions - Bear Stearns, M&N Trading, Allston Trading Aether Analytics Current and Past Client List Includes - Goldman Sachs - Gambit Trading - Facet Capital Partners - Breakwater - Westridge Capital - IB Group - Obsidian Analytics - Sardonyx Capital - PCLA Group - Ameriflex Financial - Skylark Capital - Lido Isle Advisors - GTA Group We believe that the structure of neighboring waves in price action tend to be related by geometric & mathematical harmony And we also believe that most financial systems have select moments within a regime that have very high predictability. Brief History of EW and Harmonic Patterns HM Gartley RN Elliott Pesavento Carney Traditional Classic Elliott Wave Model Copsey Modified Elliott Wave Fractal Dimension Universal Dogma 4 : The laws of nature are fixed. They are the same today as they were at the beginning, and they will stay the same for ever. How to Find & Measure Harmonic Patterns How to Find / Measure Harmonic Patterns 0.09 0.236 0.146 0.146 0.236 1.618 0.236 0.382 1.618 0.382 0.618 1.618 0.414 2.00 2 Sacred square 0.486 0.618 1.50 0.50 1 / root 4 0.557 Reciprocal of 1.732 0.618 1.00 1.618 0.685 0.618 (0.786) 0.707 2.00 2 - Sacred Cut 0.786 1 1.272 0.886 0.786 1.0 1.618 1.618 1.13 1.27 1.272 1.618 1.414 2.00 - Diagonal of a square 1.460 1.618 (0.786) 1.618 Phi Golden Ratio 1.732 3.00 - Diagonal of a cube 1.886 4.00 1.902 Diagonal of a Golden Rectangle 2.00 4.00 2.236 5.00 - Diagonal of two squares 2.618 1.618 1.618 3.14 Pi 3.33 2.618 1.272 4.236 2.618 1.618 6.854 4.236 1.618 Important Geometric Ratios - *Bryce Gilmore ther Analytics RISK MANAGEMENT RISK MANAGEMENT RISK MANAGEMENT RISK MANAGEMENT External Wave Structure Focus Areas Typical EW Trading Rules Trading Wave 1 (end of wave C) 1. Enter in Wave 2 (of 1) after ABC Down Reaches 0.618% of 1. 2. Stop loss @ low of wave 1 3. Exit after 5 wave up (end of wave 1) Problem Entering Counter Trend (fading) (low probability success) Problem Stop loss is defined as price distance not volatility measure Problem Risk Reward is not defined before trade is made Problem No quantitative evidence to support thesis. Merely observational Stop Entry A B C 1 2 1 Typical EW Trading Rules Trading Wave 2 (end of wave 1) 1. NOT Recommend by most EW practitioners 2. Stop loss @ high of wave 1 3. Exit after ABC or 0.618% of wave 1 Problem Limited Profit potential since next wave (3) is expected to be bigger opportunity Problem Stop loss is defined as price distance not volatility measure Problem No quantitative evidence to support thesis. Merely observational 1 2 Typical EW Trading Rules Trading Wave 3 (end of wave 2) 1. Enter @ beginning of wave 3 (wave2 of wave 3) Or 2. Enter @ breach of wave 1 High 3. Stop at Wave 2 low 4. Target is at least 1 : 1 Length of wave 1 (3 never shortest Success Defines Risk Reward Before Trade Success Trades With Trend (best wave to trade) Success - Quantitative evidence to support this edge Problem lose profit distance needed to confirm 1 2 Stop Entry Entry Typical EW Trading Rules Trading Wave 4 (end of wave 3) 1. 60% -70% of the life of Markets are consolidating Problems Complexity, Rule Exceptions. Problems No Definable Risk Reward Problems Shorting against Strongest Wave (3) Typical EW Trading Rules Trading Wave 5 (end of wave 4) 1. (after ABC) by at 2 of 5. 2. Stop loss @ low of 4C 3. Exit after 5 waves complete 5 th () Problem pinpointing the end of a complex wave 4 is very difficult (whipsaws) Problem No specific profit objective (wave 5s often can be 3 waves) Problem Theoretically buying end of trend move Success In ideal wave, can be profitable 2 4 3 1 Entry Entry Stop C B A Typical EW Trading Rules Trading Wave A (end of wave 5) 1. Enter when wave 5 = length of wave 1 or. 2. Enter on breach of wave 4 of the 5 th wave. 3. Stop loss @ high of wave 5 or undefined 4. Exit after 3 waves to complete ABC Problem pinpointing the end of a complex wave 4 is very difficult (whipsaws) Problem No specific profit objective (wave 5s often can be 3 waves) Problem Theoretically buying end of trend move Success Large Profit Potential Success Quantitative evidence 2 4 3 1 Entry Stop C B A 3 4 5 5 Typical EW Trading Rules Trading Wave B (end of wave A) 1. NOT Recommend by most EW practitioners 2. Stop loss @ low of wave 1 3. Exit after 5 wave up (end of wave 1) Problem Same Complexity problems as wave 4 Problem Limited profit potential (buying the last gasp) Problem little quantitative evidence Stop Entry A B C A B B 5 A C Typical EW Trading Rules Trading Wave C (end of wave B) 1. Enter on wave 2 or breach of wave 1 after ABC 2. Stop loss @ C 3. Exit after C completes ABC or length ratio to A Success Defined Risk Vs Reward Success First macro opportunity to enter new trend with lower risk Success Strong quantitative evidence of edge Problem Loss of distance to confirm Stop Entries A B C A B B 5 A C 2 1 Typical Elliott Wave Rules Problems (Personal opinion based on AE research) 1. Arguably SUBJECTIVE process due TO THE ANALYSTs interpretation of complex rule set (Linear based thinking on a non-linear dataset) Rules too rigid and No consistent rules for exceptions Subject to constant reinterpretation : If they cant find waves they look backwards and recount. Discrediting all work up to that point. .just kidding moments Much evidence to disconfirm rules 2. MULITPLE Counts?! backup counts to continue to be RIGHT 3. Ratio Lengths have too much leeway (Sometimes, typically, oftenfibs. etc) 4. Difficult to define RISK / Reward in certain scenarios 5. Little Quantitative / statistical evidence of a definable edge : Still a Theory Harmonics Isolation Approach 1. Does not Aim to explain all markets or human behavior. When approached with a Chaos Theory / Complexity Theory Foundation allows for unlimited possibility. 2. Only 1 OBJECTIVE count or definitive rules on each patterns ratios and turning points Creates Binary Decision Tree (true, false) 3. Compliments the Aims of trading with Elliott Wave (Waves, 2, 5, B favored) 4. Risk management built into the structures (Clear Risk Reward) 5. Patterns also prove to work without consideration of overall EW count 6. STRONG QUANTATTIVE / statistical evidence of a definable edge : Provable System Section 2 Advanced Analysis of Harmonic Patterns Structure Ranking External Vs Internal Internal What is going on Inside the pattern. Specific price / volume behavior on each leg Angle & Ratio Measurement of Cross Angles Time Symmetry External Where the pattern is appearing in context of larger term trend What type of wave structure terminates at X point Does X confirm in a high probability mean reversion zone. *Median Absolute Deviation Internal Angles ther Analytics Too Obtuse? Too Acute? ABC : XBD Angle Ratio ABC XBD A C B X Cross Angle & Length Ratio Measurement ther Analytics D Harmonic Time Analysis Time Ratios Detailed Structure ther Analytics Indicators in Harmonic Trading Focus on only Non- Linear Indicators .The problem with virtually all indicators is that they are causal. That means they directly depend on data for their computation and signaling. As a result, the computation cannot be accomplished until after the data arrives, and - as a result - all causal indicators have lag DR Ehlers PRICE ALMOST ALWAYS LEADS INDICATORS, BUT PREDICTIVE INDICATORS DO EXIST Focus only on Very Low or Zero Lag predictive functions Assistance in execution Quantitative Signaling & Confirming Reversal Assistance in measuring momentum Fractal Dimension and time & price deceleration Assistance in measuring trend continuation Regime Monitoring - *Most Smoothing Adds Lag All time frames % Failure Rate Per Tier of Pattern Rank Pattern Type # found NO Ranking Below 25% 25%-75% Above 75% 95%+ Gartley 200,173 16% 14.48% 8.84% 5.59% 3% Butterfly 215,616 19.5% 16.21% 7.54% 4.25% 2.58% Crab 298,455 24.01% 20.59% 16.58% 8.59% 3.56% Deep Crab 164,589 26.05% 22.05% 17.21% 9.59% 3.86% Bat 189,584 17.89% 12.47% 7.68% 3.99% 2.52% Cypher 226,458 17.25% 11.89% 6.45% 3.45% 1.97% Shark 152,484 28.54% 21.22% 15.33% 8.87% 4.01% 5-0 176,548 22.25% 16.48% 11.85% 5.58% 3.39% Sample Data set : Minimum 4 Years Tick Data 2013 Updated Success Defined as a % of patterns that reached target 1 or Moved Enough ATR to adjust stop to breakeven Sample Statistical Study Harmonic System Backtest Performance Futures & Forex Only In Sample Period 2000-2013 Forward Test Period (Tracked Live Trades) Apr 2013 - Present Profit Factor 2.50 Percent Profitable 54.18% Sharp 0.68 Expectancy 0.5571 Average DD 8.177% Return 54.18% Max DD 21.70% * Past results are no indicative of future performance Harmonic System Performance Takeaways Markets are provably Chaotic Systems. Constantly moving across the path of least resistance in repeating fractals. Always moving from a regime of a balanced state to trending state. We can measure these market regimes with non-linear based models. Hurst Exponent & Fractal Dimension Harmonic Pattern trading adds an objective systematic approach to trading subjective Elliott Wave Patterns or forecasts. Not all harmonic patterns carry the same probability of success Analysis of internal & external important MOST TECHNICAL INDICATORS HAVE PROVABLY LOW OR ZERO EDGE Contact Info Alex @ AetherAnalytics.com Twitter : @interestratearb AetherAnalytics.com Skype : alexbernal0 Old Reports Old Newsletter User Guide In Development : Automatic pattern scanner, Automatic trading algo Launching Today A weekly newsletter to help you find harmonic patterns Charting strategy update blog Strategy update blog Premium: Instant trade alerts and portfolio access Launch Day Special Aether Analytics - Harmonic Patterns 52 weeks of the Harmonic Patterns newsletter Weekly blog posts with harmonic pattern strategy updates Bonus! 10 days of access to Alex Bernals instant trade alerts 24/7 access to message Alex with questions 30-day money back guarantee vip.marketfy.com/HARMONIC 1877440-9464 Full price: $97 Today Only: $47/ 12 months 51% Off! Quick Pattern Reference Guide A C B D X Target 1 0.618 0.786 of XA Target 2 1.272 1.618 of XA Ideal Bullish Gartley 0.786 PRZ ther Analytics A C B D X Target 1 0.618 0.786 of XA Target 2 1.272 1.618 of XA Ideal Bullish Gartley 0.786 PRZ ther Analytics A C B D X Target 1 0.618 0.786 of XA Target 2 1.272 1.618 of XA Bullish Gartley 0.707 0.786 0.886 PRZ ther Analytics A C B D X Target 1 0.618 0.786 of XA Target 2 1.272 1.618 of XA Bullish Gartley ther Analytics 0.707 0.786 0.886 PRZ A C B D X Target 1 0.618 0.786 of XA Target 2 1.272 1.618 of XA Ideal Bullish Butterfly 1.13 1.272 1.618 PRZ ther Analytics A C B D X Target 1 0.618 0.786 of XA Target 2 1.272 1.618 of XA Ideal Bullish Butterfly ther Analytics 1.13 1.272 1.618 A C B D X Target 1 0.618 0.786 of XA Target 2 1.272 1.618 of XA Bullish Butterfly 1.13 1.272 1.618 PRZ ther Analytics A C B D X Target 1 0.618 0.786 of XA Target 2 1.272 1.618 of XA Ideal Bullish Butterfly ther Analytics 1.13 1.272 1.618 A C B D X Target 1 0.618 0.786 of XA Target 2 1.272 1.618 of XA Bullish Gar-fly 1.13 1.272 1.382 PRZ ther Analytics A C B D X Target 1 0.618 0.786 of XA Target 2 1.272 1.618 of XA Bearish Gar-fly ther Analytics 1.13 1.272 1.618 A C B D X Target 1 0.618 0.786 of XA Target 2 1.272 1.618 of XA Ideal Bullish Bat 0.886 PRZ ther Analytics A C B D X Target 1 0.618 0.786 of XA Target 2 1.272 1.618 of XA Ideal Bearish Bat ther Analytics 0.886 PRZ A C B D X Target 1 0.618 0.786 of XA Target 2 1.272 1.618 of XA Bullish Bat 0.886 PRZ ther Analytics A C B D X Target 1 0.618 0.786 of XA Target 2 1.272 1.618 of XA Bearish Bat ther Analytics 0.886 PRZ A C B D X Target 1 0.618 0.786 of XA Target 2 1.272 1.618 of XA Alternate Bullish Bat PRZ 1.00 1.13 1.272 ther Analytics A C B D X Target 1 0.618 0.786 of XA Target 2 1.272 1.618 of XA Alternate Bearish Bat ther Analytics PRZ 1.00 1.13 1.272 A C B D X Target 1 0.618 0.786 of CD Target 2 1.272 1.618 of CD Bullish Deep Crab PRZ 1.50 1.618 1.786 ther Analytics A C B D X Target 1 0.618 0.786 of CD Target 2 1.272 1.618 of CD Bearish Deep Crab ther Analytics PRZ 1.786 1.618 1.50 A C B D X Target 1 0.618 0.786 of CD Target 2 1.272 1.618 of CD Bullish Crab 1.50 1.618 1.786 ther Analytics A C B D X Target 1 0.618 0.786 of CD Target 2 1.272 1.618 of CD Bearish Crab ther Analytics PRZ 1.786 1.618 1.50 A C B D X Target 1 0.618 0.786 of XC Target 2 1.272 1.618 of XC Bullish Cypher PRZ 1.04 0.786 0.886 ther Analytics D Target 1 0.618 0.786 of CD Target 2 1.272 1.618 of CD Bearish Cypher ther Analytics PRZ 1.786 1.618 1.50 A C B X A C B D X Target 1 0.618 0.786 of CD Target 2 1.272 1.618 of CD Bullish Shark PRZ 1.13 1.272 1.382 ther Analytics D Target 1 0.618 0.786 of CD Target 2 1.272 1.618 of CD Bearish Shark ther Analytics PRZ 1.382 1.272 1.13 A C B X 1 Buy Stop to Entry Bullish Three Drive Wolfe Wave 3 2 A B Target 2 1.272 -1.618 A3 ther Analytics 1 Sell Stop to Entry Bullish Three Drive Wolfe Wave 3 2 A B Target 2 1.272 -1.618 A3 ther Analytics X Bullish 5-0 Pattern D B A C Target 1.00 -1.618 BC ther Analytics X Bearish 5-0 Pattern D B A C Target 1.00 -1.618 BC ther Analytics Complex Harmonic Patterns & Misc. Wave Fractals A C B D X Kane Pattern ther Analytics Target 1 B - Point Bullish Crown Pattern G A B Target 2 1.272 -1.618 BC C E D F X 1.00 ther Analytics Target 1 B - Point Bullish Crown Pattern G A B Target 2 1.272 -1.618 BC C E D F X 1.00 ther Analytics A C B D X Length of A-D = 0.5 * BC = 0.618 * BC = 0.786 * BC = 0.707 (sometimes) * Price & Time Symmetry Gilmore False Breakout Continuation Cypher Symmetry ther Analytics A C B D X Length of X-C = Length of A - D * Price & Time Symmetry Gilmore Double Cross Shark Symmetry ther Analytics
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