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Modelling Revision

Step by step
1) Do Income Statement top to bottom but LEAVE interest income / expense
2) Do Balance Sheet top to bottom but LEAVE cash, ST debt and LT debt
3) Do CFS top to bottom but LEAVE ST debt and LT debt
Before starting
Ensure iterative is turned off and circ switch is set to 0
Income statement
1) Calculate sales
Revenues sheet:
Price growth = (CPI increase/decrease) + (Price growth over/under CPI)
Share growth = (This year / Last year) - 1
Volume growth = (pop. growth) * (mkt share growth) -1
Sales growth = (price growth) * (volume growth) - 1
Sales = last year * sales growth
Sum regional sales
Sales growth = (This year / Last year) - 1
2) Calculate subtotals for all areas, historically and projections
For PBT, ensure its is the EBIT value less Interest expense/income and non recurring items
3) Fill in rest of I/S with assumptions - remember, assumptions FIRST
Depreciation use BASE analysis in Calcs sheet
4) IGNORE INTEREST INCOME / EXPENSE - colour yellow
5) For tax use ETR on PBT
6) For post tax non-recurring items: -Non-recurring item * (1 - MTR) NB put NEGATIVE infront
7) For dividends, fill in shareholder information
EPS = + recurring net income / WASO Only time use recurring
Dividends per share = Dividends / Basic WASO
Dividends = basic waso * dvd per share
Balance Sheeet
1) Colour cash, ST debt / revolver and LT debt yellow to leave
2) Calculate subtotals for all areas, historically and projections
3) Fill in rest of BS with assumptions - remember, assumptions FIRST
PPE use BASE analysis in Calcs sheet
Equity use BASE analysis in Calcs sheet
Intangibles - previous amount less amortisation
4) Create balance check line
Cash flow statement
1) Create titles:NB everything from BS needs to be in CFS - can markup the balance sheet with O's I's and F's to ensure all are in the CFS
Cash Flow from Operating Activities NB.
Net Income Income statement Assets up, cash down
Depreciatiom Income statement Liabilites up, cash up
Amortisation Income statement
Change in OWC Calcs - Asset up, Cash down
Change in other LT asset Balance sheet
Change in non-pension liability Balance sheet
Change in deferred tax liability Balance sheet
Change in other liabilities Balance sheet
Total CFFO
Cash Flow from Investing Activities
Capex Calcs - NEGATIVE
Investment in intangibles Calcs - NEGATIVE
Proceeds from sale / disposal
Investment activities
Total CFFI
Cash Flow from Financing Activities
Change in ST debt/Revolver
Change in LT debt
Dividends paid Calcs - NEGATIVE
Issue/Purchase of shares Assumptions
Total CFFF
Beginning Cash Same as previous end year
Total Net Cash Flow Sum of all cash flow totals
Ending Cash Fill in previous historical year from Balance Sheet
Cash flow available for debt repayment CFFO + CFFI + Dvd paid + Issue/Purchase of shares
2) Fill in from projections onwards - NOT historically
3) Put change in LT debt and ST debt as the change from the BS, will be a very large negative
4) Can check: input ending cash balance into cash in BS and should balance. As this figure is negative its just a check
Calculate revolver
1) Fill in assumption for min cash as % of sales
2) Beginning cash - Balance sheet, previous year
Min cash - % * sales from IS of actual year
Cash flow available for debt repayment - From IS
Cash availaible for debt repayment - Beginning + cash flow available - min. cash
Cash available after mandated repayments - = cash availble for debt repayment
3) ST debt / revolver amd Debt 1, 2 etc.
Beginning balance - previous year ending balance
Issuance / repayment - - min(beginning balance, cash available) BN. NEGATIVE sign infront
Ending balance - sum
interest rate - assumption
interest expense - AVERAGE (beginning and ending balance) * interest rate
Cash available : cash available + issuance or repayment or accelerated repayment
4) Fill in summary's with data above
5) Interest income:
Cash: Balance sheet of year that it is - make sure of consistency in columns
Interest rate: assumptions
Interest income: AVERAGE (current year and last years balance) * interest rate
6) Input ST debt into BS: From 'Debt' sheet, ending balance of ST debt
Input LT debt into BS: From 'Debt' sheet, Total LT debt in summary
Input interest income in B/S - circular reference
1) In I/S interest income: = if(circ=1, income from debt sheet, 0)
2) In I/S interest expense: = if(circ=1, total expense from debt sheet, 0)
3) Change so that iterative IS ALLOWED
4) Change Circ to 1
BASE analysis in CALCS
DO NOT DO HISTORICAL BASE ANALYSIS - earliest value shoild be ending balance of previous year of history
PP&E
Beginning balance
Capital expenditure
Depreciation
Ending balance
Equity - retained earnings
Beginning balance
Net income
Dividends
Share issuance / (repurchases)
Ending balance
Intangbles
Beginning balance
Investment in intangibles
Amortisation
Ending balance
Error checks
1) OWC - correct change and orders for liabilites and assets
2) Sanity check
3) Consistency - Ctrl + key next to 1
4) Check alignment
5) Most likely come from 'Debt' sheet
Final checks
1) Balance sheet balances: If (0) then press F9 until the brackets go
2) Beauty save
3) Blue text for constants - Select all + F5 + constants and untick text
4) Leave circ switch on

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