Pow Lo 8ulld and

ulsmanLle nuclear 8ombs

ur. Charles u. lerguson
resldenL, lederauon of Amerlcan SclenusLs
ueparLmenL of hyslcs
Colloqulum
Amerlcan unlverslLy
lebruary 13, 2012
Agenda
Pow do nuclear bombs work?
WhaL have sclenusLs done Lo reduce nuclear dangers
and lnform governmenL pollcy and Lhe publlc debaLe
abouL Lhls and oLher nauonal securlLy lssues?
WhaL can we ln Lhe sclenuc communlLy furLher do?
nuclear llsslon
Spllmng" of a nucleus
!"##"$% "#'(')%#* Lhose LhaL
sslon aer capLurlng a
neuLron of almosL any
energy, e.g., u-233, u-233,
u-239, u-241, np-237,
Am-241
!"##"'+,-$% "#'(')%#* Lhose
LhaL sslon aer capLurlng a
neuLron wlLh energles
above a Lhreshold, e.g.,
u-238, u-238
!%./$% "#'(')%#* Lhose LhaL
can be used Lo produce
sslle maLerlal aer
absorblng a neuLron, e.g.,
1h-232 and u-238
A neutron can:
1. Cause fission
2. Be absorbed without resulting in fission
3. Escape
Chaln 8eacuon
nuclear luslon
Curve of 8lndlng Lnergy
Fusion
Fission
CrowLh of nuclear
Chaln 8eacuon
Number of Fissions = 2
Generation

After 80 generations, 2
80
fissions or about 10
24
have occurred.
This number of fissions is required to produce the explosive energy in a
typical nuclear weapon within a small fraction of a second within
microseconds.
Time or # Generations
#

F
i
s
s
i
o
n
s

Exponential growth
Two Traditional Paths to Nuclear Weapons:
Make Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) or
Produce Plutonium
nuclear Weapons 1ypes
Slmple:
! Cun-Lype
! lmploslon Lype
SophlsucaLed
! 8oosLed (sslon-fuslon)
! 1hermonuclear
Lxploslve ?lelds
1yplcal convenuonal mlllLary bomb:
1,000 pounds of 1n1 exploslve equlvalenL, or x Lon.
Low-yleld" nuclear weapon:
3 klloLons or 3,000 Lons
Plroshlma bomb:
13 klloLons or 13,000 Lons
1yplcal nuclear weapon ln u.S. arsenal:
100 Lo 300 klloLons or 100,000 Lo 300,000 Lons
Cun-1ype nuclear Weapon
Final assembly is supercritical without change in density
" Need greater than critical mass of material inefficient
use of materials; Requires HEU spontaneous fission
rate of Pu is too great.
Plroshlma 8omb - Llule 8oy"
Gun Type Easiest to design and build (Hiroshima bomb was never tested)
About 13 kiloton explosive yield
lmploslon 8omb
llrsL nuclear 1esL: 1rlnlLy" devlce: !uly 16, 1943
Plroshlma: AugusL 6, 1943
nagasakl: AugusL 9, 1943
Pans 8eLhe, Los Alamos, and Lhe loundlng
of Lhe lederauon of ALomlc/Amerlcan
SclenusLs
Fat Man: Nagasaki Bomb
Schemauc of rlmary arL of 8omb
Aluminum case (1 cm)
Source: Steve Fetter et al., Detecting Nuclear Weapons, 1990
High explosive (10 cm)
Tamper (tungsten or
uranium) (3 cm)
Beryllium reflector (2 cm)
Fissile material (WgU or WgPu)
WgU: 12 kg, 7 cm outside,
1.23 cm thick
WgPu: 4 kg, 5 cm outside,
0.75 cm thick
Hollow core, where D and T are injected for boosting.
1hermonuclear Weapons: SclenusLs' Advlce (lor
and AgalnsL) Lo Lhe CovernmenL
nuclear 1esung: Surprlse 8esulLs from
1hermonuclear 1esLs
ConLamlnauon from nuclear 1esung
nuclear 1esL 8an uebaLe: 8eLhe, Ldward 1eller,
Llnus aullng, and Andrel Sakharov
Mlsslle uefense Analysls ln 1960s Lhrough
1980s: 8eLhe and 8lchard Carwln
Cbama AdmlnlsLrauon's Mlsslle uefense SysLem
upsemng Lhe 8eseL," 2011 lederauon of
Amerlcan SclenusLs 8eporL by
?ousaf 8uu and 1ed osLol
Dual-Use Dilemma: Atoms for Peace and Atoms for War are Intertwined
ueaLh by CllmaLe Change or
nuclear War?
SnapshoL of nuclear ower 1oday
- ,-'0( 123 '4 5$'-,$ %$%6(."6"(7 8%9,+8
,+8 ,-'0( :3 '4 ('(,$ 5$'-,$ %+%.57 0#%
-;< 6'0+(."%# = >,"?,+ ')%.,/+5 ,-'0( @;<
.%,6('.# A;B< CDE F8'G%+# 60..%+($7
#H0(8'?+ "+ I,),+J
-11 6'0+(."%# %+."6H"+5 0.,+"09
-2 6'0+(."%# .%).'6%##"+5 #)%+( 40%$
6'99%.6",$$7
-< 6'0+(."%# ?"(H 5%'$'5"6 .%)'#"('."%# 4'.
+06$%,. ?,#(%
redlcuons ln Lhe asL Were very ulerenL
Source: Frank von Hippel, Princeton University and FAS
Sources: lALA 8lS and Mycle Schnelder Consulung
*Sources: u.S. SLaLe ueparLmenL and C. u. lerguson
and M. SmlLh, !"#$%&' )"*%+,, !an/leb 2009
?
*
8arrlers Lo new 8ulld
Many facLors compllcaLe new nuclear bulld
- CosL
- 1lme
- ersonnel
Sources: lALA 8lS and !"#$%&' )"*%+,
Wedge Model" for CounLerlng CllmaLe Change
Source: S. acala and 8. Socolow, -+%$'+$ , AugusL 14, 2004.
Sources: LlA, Cak 8ldge nauonal LaboraLory, and lerguson &
SmlLh, !"#$%&' )"*%+,
8lsk = robablllLy x SeverlLy
8lsk can be slgnlcanL when uncerLalnLy ls large
8lsk can be hlgh when probablllLy ls low
Uncertainty and Risk
P
r
o
b
a
b
i
l
i
t
y

"

Severity "
Uncertainty Range
AH'0#% K.%E
Source: Jay Gulledge, Pew Center on Climate Change and FAS member
8lchard leynman: Challenger
lnvesugauon
hup://www.youLube.com/waLch?
v=8qAl_9quzu?
Apply our research skllls Lo publlc pollcy and
socleLal lssues
WrlLe popular arucles abouL sclence for Lhe
publlc and pollcymakers
LducaLe Lhe news medla abouL good sclence
and concepLs such as rlsk and uncerLalnLy
CeL lnvolved wlLh school boards and oLher
governmenL lnsuLuuons LhaL deLermlne
sclence currlcula and LexLbook selecuon
WrlLe Lo polluclans Lo lnform Lhem abouL
sclence aspecLs of pollcy declslons
WhaL Can We-ln Lhe Sclenuc CommunlLy-uo?
WhaL Can We, SclenusLs, uo?
LducaLe Lhe nexL generauon of pollcymakers:
glve guesL lecLures or Leach ad[uncL courses Lo
pollucal sclence sLudenLs
lnLeracL wlLh Lhe Lducauon ueparLmenL aL Lhe
unlverslLy
1alk Lo sLudenLs ln mlddle and hlgh schools
abouL careers ln sclence
WhaL We, SclenusLs, Can uo?
!oln sclence-based nCCs: lederauon of
Amerlcan SclenusLs (www.fas.org), unlon of
Concerned SclenusLs, e.g.
Work for sclence-based nCCs
!oln Lhe AS unlL lorum on hyslcs and
SocleLy
Apply for governmenL fellowshlps Lhrough
AS, Al, or AAAS
1hank you very much for your auenuon
Any quesuons?
lor more abouL lAS, see lAS.org