07/03/2014

1
Global Warming:
Productivity & Sensitivity Analysis
Definitions
Standing crop total amount of producer biomass/carbon
in an ecosystem at a given point in time

Production:: creation of new organic matter

Gross Primary Production (GPP): total amount of
energy fixed (or CO
2
taken up) by all autotrophs in an ecosystem

Net Primary Production (NPP): energy remaining
after autotrophs have met their own energetic needs
NPP = GPP R
PP

07/03/2014
2
STELLA Productivity Model
What are the Standing Crop, GPP & NPP of the simulated
algae population compared to real populations?

Use In-Class 12 ProductivityInClass.stmx

pH = 7 and Temp = 27.5
DT = .2 Runge-Kutta2 T = 3000

For GPP and NPP we want to determine the average pgs of
Carbon produced by the model algae population per liter/day

After dynamics settle down, we use 240 hrs (10 days) as the
time frame for sampling productivity& divide final sum by 10



Comparison with Real Populations
Lake exclosure expts. No herbivores: 100-600 ug C/L
1. Standing Crop Model=(68,954,773+62,768,346)/2 pg/L= 065e
9
pg/L= 65 ug/L 65 ug C/L
2. GPP Model = (2.965e9 pg C/L/day)/10 = .296e
9
pg C/L/d 296 ug C/L/day
Lake exclosure expts No herbivores:
3. NPP Model = (1.491e9 pg C/L/day)/10 = .149e
9
pg C/L/d 149 ug C/L/day
Lake exclosure expts No herbivores: 105 ug C/L/day
120 ug C/L/day
07/03/2014
3
NPP & Standing Crop in Nature?
Standing crop biomass
NPP
1. The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere has gone from 280
ppm in pre-industrial times to 397 ppm at present. In terms of
partial pressure, thats an increase from .000280 to .000397.
Given these values, what is the expected increase in the
concentration of CO2 and pH of non-buffered water at 25
o
?

07/03/2014
4
Calculating Changes in CO2 and pH
2. Given K
A1
and knowing the concentration of CO2 we can calculate pH by
solving for [H
+
]
2
from the following equilibrium constant:
1. Current % CO2 in atmosphere = .0397
PpCO2 = .000397 atm
KCO2 = 29.41 Latm/mol

[CO2] = .000397 atm/29.41 atm/mol = .00001349 mol/L
[H
+
]
2
=

1.349x10
-5
mol/L*4.45x10
-7
= 6e
-12

[H+] = SQRT(6e
-12
) = 2.45x10
-6

pH = -LOG10(2.45x10
-6
) = 5.61
3. Pre-industrial % CO2 in atmosphere = .0280
PpCO2 = .000280 atm
[CO2] = .000280 atm/29.41 atm/mol = .00000952 mol/L

[H
+
]
2
=

9.52x10
-6
mol/L*4.45x10
-7
= 4.236e
-12

[H+] = SQRT5.7136e
-12
) = 2.058x10
-6

pH = -LOG10(2.058x10
-6
) = 5.69



Playing in the Silicon Sandbox
What model parameters could we change to determine their
influence on the system? Write down as many as you can.

Temp Temp Response curve
pH pHResponse curve
Day length Attenuation constant
IrradianceatSURFACE Cell C needed to divide
Photosynthesis curve saturation,slope etc. Respiration rate
Depthmeters Prespconstant
Attenuation PintoLiter (renewal rate of P)
VmaxP
Pmax
Kcarbon
KPhosph
RespirationRate
Pwater
Chalf
Ku
Vmax
Prespconstant
Death rate per Indiv





07/03/2014
5
Sensitivity Analysis - STELLA



Sensitivity analyses allow us to analyze how model state
variables respond to changes in the model parameters.
This allows us to identify those parameters that have the
most important impact on system dynamics.




07/03/2014
6
Sensitivity Analysis - STELLA
1. What other variables should we try?: