1o: MoveCn.

org ollLlcal AcLlon and members of Lhe medla

lrom: Cellnda Lake, uanlel CoLoff, and krlsLy ulLorak, !"#$ &$'$"()* +"(,-$('
8e: 1he paLh Lo Lurnlng ouL drop-off uemocraLlc voLers ln Lhe 2014 mldLerm elecLlons
uaLe: SepLember 11, 2014

Lake 8esearch arLners has [usL compleLed slgnlflcanL research lnLo Lhe vlews of drop-off
llkely uemocraLlc voLers across flve of Lhe sLaLes LhaL wlll be key Lo deLermlnlng conLrol of
Lhe SenaLe.
1
rogresslve groups seeklng Lo Lurn ouL Lhe base Lhls year should be encouraged
by whaL we found. lf Lhese voLers Lurn ouL, Lhe vasL ma[orlLy of Lhem wlll voLe for
uemocraLlc SenaLe candldaLes, and several of Lhe messages we LesLed are powerfully
moLlvaLlng Lo Lhls group of voLers, lncreaslng lnLeresL ln Lhe elecLlon. lf progresslve groups
succeed ln dellverlng Lhese messages Lo poLenLlal voLers, we can lncrease LurnouL
slgnlflcanLly and perhaps declslvely.

Cur research pro[ecL, conducLed on behalf of and pald for by MoveCn.org ollLlcal AcLlon,
lncluded focus groups as well as a survey of 1,000 low-propenslLy uemocraLlc voLers across
flve key SenaLe sLaLes: Colorado, lowa, kenLucky, Mlchlgan, and norLh Carollna. 1hese are
folks who Lend Lo voLe uemocraLlc when Lhey do voLe -- and Lend Lo voLe ln presldenLlal
elecLlon years, buL whom ofLen do noL Lurn ouL ln non-presldenLlal elecLlons.

Cverall, Lhe numbers look qulLe poslLlve for uemocraLlc candldaLes, wlLh Lhe ma[or
challenge belng LurnouL raLher Lhan persuaslon. lor Lhe populaLlon we surveyed, lL ls voLe
for Lhe uemocraLlc candldaLe or do noL voLe aL all, Lhey are mlnlmally open Lo 8epubllcan
candldaLes. Across Lhe 3 sLaLes, drop-off voLers supporL Lhe uemocraLlc candldaLes over
Lhelr 8epubllcan counLerparLs by a margln of 4:1 (on average: 33 uemocraLlc candldaLe,
13 8epubllcan candldaLe). ln addlLlon, resldenL 8arack Cbama ls very well-llked (70
favorable, 23 unfavorable), 8epubllcan candldaLes are generally less-known or dlsllked,
and Lhe levels of lnLenslLy and concern are exLremely hlgh for varlous scenarlos LhaL could
resulL from 8epubllcans Laklng conLrol of Lhe SenaLe. AL Lhe same Llme, many of Lhese
poLenLlal voLers are unenLhuslasLlc, underscorlng Lhelr naLural" sense of apaLhy Loward
parLlclpaLlng ln Lhe mldLerms. lorLunaLely, many of Lhese voLers become much more
lnLeresLed ln Lhe elecLlon afLer hearlng progresslve messages.

1he flrsL ma[or declslon for groups focuslng on LurnouL ls wheLher Lo focus on a sLaLe-by-
sLaLe sLraLegy wlLh speclflc messages and LargeLs or an overarchlng medla and voLer conLacL
sLraLegy deslgned Lo acLlvaLe progresslve drop-off voLers and brlng Lhem Lo Lhe polls. Cf
course, when we look lnLo Lhe daLa for each sLaLe, ldlosyncrasles and nuances appear LhaL
would be lmporLanL for LargeLed efforLs. Cverall, however, many of Lhe Lhemes across Lhe
sLaLes overlap, and Lhere ls deflnlLe poLenLlal Lo creaLe a unlfled message sLraLegy-

1
Lake 8esearch arLners deslgned and admlnlsLered Lhls survey, whlch was conducLed by phone uslng
professlonal lnLervlewers. 1he survey reached a LoLal of 1,000 llkely uemocraLlc drop-off voLers ln 3 sLaLes -
Colorado, lowa, kenLucky, Mlchlgan, and norLh Carollna. 1he survey was conducLed SepLember 2
nd
- 4
Lh
, 2014.
1he margln of error for Lhls survey ls +/-3.1.

uavld Mermln
ur. 8oberL C. Meadow
uanlel CoLoff


1726 M SL., nW
SulLe 1100






+".$ /

lncludlng Lhe posslblllLy of lnLerchanglng some of Lhe maln argumenLs and proof polnLs underneaLh,
dependlng on Lhe sLaLe.

As a whole, drop-off uemocraLlc voLers show modesL lnLeresL ln voLlng Lhls november. A ma[orlLy
(39) say Lhey are lnLeresLed ln voLlng (ranked 6-9, lnLervlews were LermlnaLed among anyone who
sald 10"), 18 are neuLral, and 22 are somewhere on Lhe less lnLeresLed" end of Lhe scale (0-4).
1hese voLers also Lend Lo have a poslLlve lmpresslon of resldenL Cbama (70 favorable, 23
unfavorable).

Should Lhe CC Lake conLrol of Lhe SenaLe, drop-off voLers are mosL concerned LhaL 8epubllcans
wlll Lake away a woman's rlghL Lo choose and resLrlcL access Lo blrLh conLrol" (38 rank Lhls a '10',
very concernlng), 8epubllcans wlll cuL access Lo healLh care for 8 mllllon people and leL lnsurance
companles refuse Lo cover people wlLh pre-exlsLlng condlLlons" (38) and 8epubllcans wlll cuL back
workplace proLecLlons for women, denylng equal pay for equal work" (37). 1he focus groups
showed deeper lnslghL lnLo drop-off voLers' lmpresslons. key words llke 'Lake away' or 'cuL' rose Lo
Lhe Lop of Lhese voLers' concerns and are parLlcularly effecLlve ln lnsplrlng lnLeresL Lo voLe ln
november.

1he Lop LesLlng message overall emphaslzes educaLlon, speclflcally 8epubllcans' efforLs Lo cuL
programs for sLudenLs whlle glvlng Lax cuLs Lo Lhe wealLhy (34 very convlnclng '10'). 1hls message
ls Lhe sLrongesL argumenL for comlng ouL Lo voLe ln all of Lhe sLaLes excepL Colorado (where lL ranks
second, [usL behlnd a message focused on how 8epubllcans are worklng Lo Lurn back Lhe clock on
women's rlghLs). 1he message focuslng on 8epubllcans' war on women ls Lhe second sLrongesL
message ln all sLaLes besldes Colorado (49 very convlnclng '10'). ln addlLlon, a message focuslng on
Lhe mlddle class falllng behlnd has sLrong appeal, ln parLlcular Lo LargeL voLers, as we dlscuss below.

1he messaglng ls effecLlve ln generaLlng lnLenslLy as well as ln shlfLlng more supporL Loward Lhe
uemocraLlc candldaLes - afLer hearlng Lhe messaglng, on average 61 supporL Lhe uemocraLlc
candldaLe ln Lhelr sLaLe (up from 33 lnlLlally), 13 supporL Lhe 8epubllcan candldaLe, and 24 are
undeclded. AddlLlonally, Lhe closlng argumenL LhaL Lhe conLrol of Lhe SenaLe wlll depend on Lhelr
parLlcular sLaLe has real reach wlLh Lhese drop-off voLers, whlch focused groups revealed are largely
noL yeL aware LhaL Lhe SenaLe ls ln play. Cn average, a ma[orlLy (30) say Lhey are very lnLeresLed
('10') ln voLlng ln november afLer hearlng LhaL Lhelr sLaLe could make Lhe dlfference ln whlch parLy
conLrols Lhe SenaLe wlLh 80 saylng Lhey have sLrong overall lnLeresL ('6-10'). 1hls could serve as a
very sLrong closlng argumenL for CC1v efforLs.

We also looked aL a poLenLlal LargeL - lndlvlduals who shlfL Lo hlgher lnLeresL ('10') ln voLlng ln
november. 1hls group ls 39 of Lhe sample and ls Lhe prlmary LargeL of Lhe LurnouL campalgn.
1hese voLers Lend Lo be women (62), marrled (34), whlLe (63), and under Lhe age of 40 (42).
1hey do noL Lend Lo waLch many onllne vldeos (31 never, anoLher 27 [usL once or Lwlce a
monLh). 1hey have sllghLly dlfferenL concerns lf Lhe CC Lakes conLrol of Lhe SenaLe. 1helr blggesL
concerns are 8epubllcans wlll shuL down Lhe governmenL agaln" (71), 8epubllcans wlll cuL
fundlng for Pead SLarL and k-12 educaLlon" (71), and 8epubllcans wlll make deep cuLs Lo or
prlvaLlze Soclal SecurlLy and Medlcare beneflLs" (70). 1wo messages have parLlcular sLrengLh wlLh
Lhls group. A message focuslng on Lhe mlddle class falllng behlnd (73 very convlnclng) and Lhe
educaLlon message, LhaL was overall Lhe mosL effecLlve message, are Lhe mosL effecLlve wlLh Lhese
LargeLs. 1hese Lwo messages are also Lhe Lop LesLlng messages for undeclded SenaLe balloL voLers
(48 and 47 very convlnclng respecLlvely). 1he closlng argumenL ls nearly a slam dunk wlLh Lhese

+".$ 0

LargeLs. lully 82 express lnLense lnLeresL (10) ln voLlng ln november afLer hearlng lL. Agaln, Lhls
wlll be parLlcularly useful for CC1v efforLs.

1he poLenLlal voLers we surveyed wlll help ensure uemocraLlc candldaLes wln -- lf Lhey Lurn ouL. Cur
research lndlcaLes LhaL by dellverlng messages focused on 8epubllcan cuLs Lo educaLlon, Lhe
8epubllcan war on women, and popullsL argumenLs LhaL underscore LhaL 8epubllcans are flghLlng
for blg corporaLlons and wealLhy bllllonalres whlle worklng people and Lhe mlddle class are lefL
behlnd, progresslve groups can persuade many of Lhese poLenLlal voLers Lo do [usL LhaL.