Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
O R G
M AY / J UNE 2014
BROUGHT TO YOU BY:
SPORTS
ANALYTICS
WHATS A NICE DEFENSE
CONSULTANCY DOING IN THE
SPORTS SPACE?
ALSO INSIDE:
How to measure anything
The big V of big data
Powerful decision-making
Executive Edge
Verisk Digital Services
President Henna Karna
on going digital
Quantified warriors
Whats a nice defense consultancy
company such as the Perduco Group doing in the sports analytics space?
Thats the question I asked Stephen
Chambal, co-founder of Perduco, after
attending his session on opportunities,
barriers and lessons learned in sports
analytics at the recent INFORMS Conference on Business Analytics & Operations
Research in Boston. As Chambal notes
in his article on the same topic in this issue of Analytics, theres a simple answer (sports are fun) and a real answer
(his companys core capabilities and the
business opportunities the sports industry presents, combined with a couple of
chance encounters, triggered Perducos
strategic push into the sports arena).
As it turns out, the defense community and the sports community are not that
far apart in terms of their ultimate goals.
Theyre both interested in prevailing on
the battlefield, whether its a desert in
the Middle East or a basketball court in
Madison Square Garden, and theyre
both interested in the so-called quantified warrior the ability to monitor and
assess a soldiers/professional athletes
condition and to understand how to
optimize their performance on their
2
A N A LY T I C S - M A G A Z I N E . O R G
IN A FEW
HOURS
MISSION CRITICAL
ENTERPRISE APP
IN A FEW
MONTHS
PUBLISHED
INSTANTLY
TO YOUR ENTERPRISE
OPTIMIZATION
APP STORE
PROOF OF
CONCEPT
IN A FEW
DAYS
OPTIMIZATION APP
IN A FEW
WEEKS
C O N T E N T S
MAY/JUNE 2014
Brought to you by
FEATURES
28
34
46
54
ADVENTURES IN CONSULTING
By Stephen Chambal
Whats a defense consulting company doing in sports?
Core capabilities, chance encounter score a business opportunity.
28
34
54
44
4
A N A LY T I C S - M A G A Z I N E . O R G
W W W. I N F O R M S . O R G
N
Di ew
m AS
en P
sio V2
na 01
lM 4w
in excel ode ith
lin
g
24
72
DEPARTMENTS
2 Inside Story
8 Executive Edge
12 Analyze This!
16 Healthcare Analytics
20 Forum
24 INFORMS Honors
62 Predictive Analytics
66 Conference Preview
72 Five-Minute Analyst
78 Thinking Analytically
Analytics (ISSN 1938-1697) is published six times a year by the
Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences
(INFORMS), the largest membership society in the word dedicated
to the analytics profession. For a free subscription, register at
http://analytics.informs.org. Address other correspondence to
the editor, Peter Horner, peter.horner@mail.informs.org. The
opinions expressed in Analytics are those of the authors, and
do not necessarily reflect the opinions of INFORMS, its officers,
Lionheart Publishing Inc. or the editorial staff of Analytics.
Analytics copyright 2014 by the Institute for Operations
Research and the Management Sciences. All rights reserved.
INFORMS OFFICES
www.informs.org Tel: 1-800-4INFORMS
Executive Director Melissa Moore
Meetings Director Laura Payne
Marketing Director Gary Bennett
Communications Director Barry List
Headquarters INFORMS (Maryland)
5521 Research Park Drive, Suite 200
Catonsville, MD 21228
Tel.: 443.757.3500
E-mail: informs@informs.org
N
Di ew
m AS
en P
sio V2
na 01
lM 4w
od ith
excel
eli
ng
EXE CU TIVE E D G E
BY HENNA A. KARNA
A N A LY T I C S - M A G A Z I N E . O R G
W W W. I N F O R M S . O R G
New Solver for Office 365 Excel: Free for Your Tablet or Phone
New
EXE CU TIVE E D G E
A N A LY T I C S - M A G A Z I N E . O R G
W W W. I N F O R M S . O R G
model between the customer and the corporation, effectively providing a means by
which true information exchange, not just
information transfer, can occur. Outsidein refers to the ability to extract input from
outside the corporation to drive decisionmaking and broader strategic direction.
Inside-out, on the other hand, refers to strategic decision-making based on a model
driven by perspectives within the corporation (primarily a supply-constrained view).
As described in the four-quadrant
view shown in Figure 1, both outside-in
and inside-out input models are relevant
consideration factors depending on the
objectives (external expansion or internal
optimization) of the corporation pursuing
a digital transformation. The highlighted
examples (customer touch points, captive
conversion, internal collaboration, performance management) provide high-level
examples of key opportunities for corporations looking to capitalize on digital.
WHERE TO BEGIN
On a practical level, executing a
digital engagement strategy should be
gradual but still involve all key facets of
the companys infrastructure. Although
a digital platform is heavily supported
by technology and is rooted in IT, it
should be a priority for the entire business. Paramount for digital success is
a broad top-down mandate that spans
A NA L Y T I C S
M A Y / J U N E 2 014
11
ANALY ZE T H I S !
BY VIJAY MEHROTRA
12
I was recently promoted from associate professor to professor. There were two notable things
about this promotion:
This is the first time in my life that I had ever
received a formal promotion from an existing
employer (all other job title changes have been
the result of changing employers).
I am now officially no longer a junior faculty
member, a fact confirmed by the impending
arrival of my 50th birthday later this year.
Anyway, a few weeks after being notified of my promotion, I flew off to Minnesota to visit St. Olaf College,
my undergraduate alma mater. While my primary purpose in going was to attend a meeting of the schools
Alumni Board, the real highlight was the chance to
meet with current St. Olaf students, to have a chance
to see the world through their eyes, and to offer up any
relevant wisdom gleaned from my own experience.
The first St. Olaf student I met with was a senior
math major, a bright young man who had until recently
been planning to pursue a Ph.D. in economics. He was
now set on further studies in operations research, and
he was trying to decide where to go to grad school.
I winced.
The second student was a young woman in her
junior year who was majoring in mathematics and biology with a concentration in statistics. She had seized
the opportunity to visit with me, in large part because
A N A LY T I C S - M A G A Z I N E . O R G
W W W. I N F O R M S . O R G
13
ANALY ZE T H I S !
14
A N A LY T I C S - M A G A Z I N E . O R G
W W W. I N F O R M S . O R G
HEALT H CARE A NA LY T I C S
BY RAJIB GHOSH
16
A N A LY T I C S - M A G A Z I N E . O R G
W W W. I N F O R M S . O R G
M A Y / J U N E 2 014
17
HEALT H CARE A NA LY T I C S
18
A N A LY T I C S - M A G A Z I N E . O R G
W W W. I N F O R M S . O R G
interesting idea of fusing our health insurance information with our physiological data and genetics not under the
watchful eyes of insurance providers but
for us and only for us. Think of it as our
personal financial risk dashboard using
the powers of predictive analytics! It will
be even better if we are able to tweak
our behavior data and then see the impact in our risk dashboard. That will be
real empowerment for us as consumers.
Rajib Ghosh (rghosh@hotmail.com) is an
independent consultant and business advisor
with 20 years of technology experience in various
industry verticals where he had senior level
management roles in software engineering,
program management, product management
and business and strategy development. Ghosh
spent a decade in the U.S. healthcare industry
as part of a global ecosystem of medical device
manufacturers, medical software companies and
telehealth and telemedicine solution providers.
Hes held senior positions at Hill-Rom, Solta
Medical and Bosch Healthcare. His recent work
interest includes public health and the field of
IT-enabled sustainable healthcare delivery in the
United States as well as emerging nations. Follow
Ghosh on twitter @ghosh_r.
NOTES & REFERENCES
1. Avik Roy, 2010, Obama Officials In 2010: 93
Million Americans Will Be Unable To Keep Their
Health Plans Under Obamacare, Forbes.
2. Income, Poverty and Health Insurance
Coverage in the United States, 2011,
government publication.
3. Thomas Fisher, 2012, The Contingent
Workforce and Public Decision Making.
4. Sharon Begley, 2013, Think preventive
medicine will save money? Think again,
Reuters.
M A Y / J U N E 2 014
19
FO RUM
Analyzing analysts:
dreamer vs. pragmatist
Analysts and EPM project
managers in all industries
face a common struggle:
acceptance of their ideas,
methods and findings
by often suspicious
work colleagues and
managers, some of
whom exhibit substantial
resistance to change.
BY GARY COKINS
20
A N A LY T I C S - M A G A Z I N E . O R G
W W W. I N F O R M S . O R G
BEHAVIORAL CHANGE
MANAGEMENT
Organizations seem hesitant to
adopt analytics and EPM methods. Is
it evaluation paralysis or brain freeze?
Most organizations make the mistake
believing that applying analytics and
EPM methods are 90 percent math and
10 percent organizational change management with employee behavior alteration. In reality it is the other way around
it is more likely 5 percent math and 95
percent about people.
CHICAGO
www.pawcon.com
Delivering on the promise of
big data
PRODUCED BY
A NA L Y T I C S
M A Y / J U N E 2 014
21
FO RUM
A N A LY T I C S - M A G A Z I N E . O R G
change but also include some co-workers who fear the consequences of knowing the truth. But driving social change in
others is achievable. It requires motivation to want to make a difference in an
organizations performance and to provide others with insights and foresight for
them to make better decisions.
Overcoming barriers also requires influencing others to be more open-minded.
After all, one can never choose an alternative that has not even been considered.
Although I am an optimist by nature,
I am also a perpetual worrier. I cannot
shut out the pessimistic voice on my one
shoulder constantly warning me about
what can go wrong. Maybe that is OK because that voice forces me to think about
contingency plans to cope with unplanned
and unexpected events and outcomes.
I believe we all need both voices. Just
do not shut down the positive voice. It is a
corny line, but where there is a will there
is a way. Try not to only see the prison
window bars but also the stars.
Gary Cokins (gcokins@garycokins.com) is
the founder of Analytics-Based Performance
Management LLC, an advisory firm. A member
of INFORMS, he is an internationally recognized
expert, speaker and author in advanced cost
management and performance improvement
systems. He was previously a principal consultant
with SAS. For more of Cokins unique look at the
world, visit his website at www.garycokins.com.
A version of this article appeared in Information
Management.
W W W. I N F O R M S . O R G
INFORMSCONFERENCE
BIG
DATA
THE
BUSINESS
OF
June 22-24
2014
Keynote Speaker
Bill Franks
Chief Analytics Officer
Teradata Corporation
Putting Big Data to Work
meetings. informs.org/bigdata2014
Conference Co-Chairs:
Margery H. Connor
Diego Klabjan
Chevron Corporation Northwestern University
INFO RM S H O N O R S
CDC wins
INFORMS
Edelman Award
T
A N A LY T I C S - M A G A Z I N E . O R G
Along with the CDC, the other finalists competing in the 2014 Franz Edelman
Award Competition included teams from
Alliance for Paired Donation, The Energy
Authority, Grady Health System, Australias
NBN and Twitter.
MAYO CLINIC EARNS INFORMS PRIZE
Mayo Clinic, the innovative healthcare organization that has used analytics throughout its organization to provide
economical, quality services in an era of
ballooning medical costs, was named the
2014 winner of the INFORMS Prize. The
prize was presented at an awards gala held
in conjunction with the 2014 INFORMS
Conference on Business Analytics and
Operations Research in Boston.
Operations research is deeply rooted
in Mayo Clinics culture, says Mayo Clinic
President & CEO John Noseworthy, M.D.
M A Y / J U N E 2 014
25
INFO RM S H O N O R S
26
A N A LY T I C S - M A G A Z I N E . O R G
W W W. I N F O R M S . O R G
Stand Out.
Put yourself in a lucrative new career.
Apply now for a masters degree in business
analytics or supply chain management.
Intensive nine month programs
World-renowned faculty
Experiential projects with industry clients
Personalized professional development
www.leeds.colorado.edu/ms
303-492-8397
leedsms@colorado.edu
A NA L Y T I C S
M A Y / J U N E 2 014
27
VA L U E OF BU S I N E S S I NTA NG I BLE S
Explaining How to
Measure Anything
Latest edition of book takes another look at seven
arguments, new and old.
A N A LY T I C S - M A G A Z I N E . O R G
29
ME AS URIN G A NY T H I NG
Almost everyone
can be trained
to be an expert
probability
estimator.
30
A N A LY T I C S - M A G A Z I N E . O R G
W W W. I N F O R M S . O R G
31
ME AS URIN G A NY T H I NG
A N A LY T I C S - M A G A Z I N E . O R G
unique, they cannot extrapolate from historical data. Then and without a hint of
irony they will claim that therefore they
must rely on their experience. Of course,
as the book argues, expertise and science are both based on past observations
one of these with much more selective
recall and tendency for flawed inferences
than the other. Managers make just such
a mistake whenever they say that they
cant make estimates about implementing
a new technology because it is so unique
even though they have a long history of
implementing new technologies. Using
that same logic, your insurance company
couldnt possibly compute a life insurance
premium for you because youre unique
and because you havent died yet. In fact,
insurance actuaries know how to extrapolate from larger, more heterogeneous
populations.
The third edition also expands on developments in how big data, social media,
mobile phones and personal measurement devices are making the we dont
have enough data excuse much harder
to justify.
SUMMARY
You can, in fact, measure anything,
in our view, but doing so is sometimes a
challenge even for those who are convinced the claim is true. We simply need
to recognize that the perceived challenge
A NA L Y T I C S
results from some of the same old, entrenched misconceptions. Your problem is
most likely not as unusual as you think;
there are sources of information you can
use, if you think creatively about how to
apply them; calibrated experts can make
good estimates of their uncertainty about
the data points they provide; and calculating the expected value of information
can focus you on collecting the most useful additional data, not wasting effort and
resources on data that wont help much.
Douglas W. Hubbard (dwhubbard@
hubbardresearch.com) is president of Hubbard
Decision Research in Glen Ellyn, Ill., and an
internationally recognized expert in measurement
and decision analysis. Douglas A. Samuelson
(samuelsondoug@yahoo.com), D.Sc., is president
and chief scientist of InfoLogix, Inc., a consulting
and R&D company in Annandale, Va., and a
contributing editor of OR/MS Today and Analytics
magazines. He is a longtime member of INFORMS.
M A Y / J U N E 2 014
33
B IG DATA
Using analytics
to make powerful
business decisions
Big data is a hot topic, but harnessing its full
potential can be elusive.
34
A N A LY T I C S - M A G A Z I N E . O R G
35
B U S IN E S S DE C I S I O N -M A K I NG
36
many companies still use the wrong tools, including spreadsheets and black-box enterprise
resource planning (ERP) algorithms, which
are not necessarily fine-tuned for individual
SKUs and may be especially ill-suited for slowmoving items with no sales in some periods.
Forecasting is also often ignored at the pointof-sale level, which is harder to do but can be
used to improve distribution-center forecasts
and cross-department collaboration.
Choosing right-time series models, tightening modeling parameters using mathematical
optimization and adjusting processes to become
demand-driven can result in substantial operational improvements. More accurate forecasting, supported by collaborative silo-penetrating
processes, can reduce working capital up to 20
percent and reduce out-of-stock events by up to
6 percent.
Marketing optimization. Demand can be
stimulated by driving up sales with brand-recognition campaigns or by promoting individual
goods and services. Sometimes, these promotional campaigns are either too broad or poorly timed and very often offer higher discounts
than necessary to achieve extra sales volumes.
Marketing optimization approaches maximize
the effectiveness of these campaigns within
marketing budget constraints. Alternatively,
they can inform decision-makers about the right
budget level to achieve a certain sales volume.
These techniques routinely improve the marketing budget by 10 percent while allowing for
achieving the business objectives.
A N A LY T I C S - M A G A Z I N E . O R G
W W W. I N F O R M S . O R G
SUPPLY CHAIN
Strategic network. Whether it is after
inorganic growth, mergers and acquisitions, moving sourcing to low-cost countries or resourcing transport providers,
footprint and flow path restructuring is a
crucial activity for supply chain managers. The most common optimization applications are establishing where to get
raw materials, what to produce where,
how much and where to store it, who to
deliver to, and what assets are required
across the whole network. However,
real life presents interesting modeling
and implementation challenges.
Examples of these include convincing stakeholders of the need to holistically optimize the end-to-end supply chain,
considerations for production scheduling, demand sensing across all network
tiers, non-linear costs for warehousing
and transport, non-linear relationships
between the quality of raw materials
and the quality of finished goods, the integration of less quantifiable and known
elements such as competition into models, and the double objectives of costs
and CO2 emissions. Typical network optimization projects save 5 percent to 10
percent, but higher benefits up to 20
percent are not unprecedented.
Supply chain operations. Supply
chains are inherently dynamic because
of the uncertainties of customer demand,
M A Y / J U N E 2 014
37
B U S IN E S S DE C I S I O N -M A K I NG
A N A LY T I C S - M A G A Z I N E . O R G
Holistic supply chain. When overhauling the supply chain, strategic and
lower-detail operations designs are both
beneficial because they leave no stone
unturned. Operational design also helps
to show the customer how a redesigned
network will work in real life. Although
there are many ways to make the optimization and simulation methods work together, a model with two feedback loops
is ideal (see Figure 2). Optimized flow
path design is fed into a dynamic simulation model, which is then tightened with a
simulation-optimization loop. If an adjustment is needed to the high-level network
W W W. I N F O R M S . O R G
39
B U S IN E S S DE C I S I O N -M A K I NG
A N A LY T I C S - M A G A Z I N E . O R G
across all business functions and, if executed well, can significantly improve the
bottom line.
PROCUREMENT
Sourcing. For many sourcing events,
optimization can help match expressive
or non-standard offers with the business
requirements. Potential suppliers often
come up with volume or package discounts, step-change pricing, alternative
offers, capacity constraints or other ways
to showcase their strengths. However,
these complex offers cannot be taken at
face value, and optimization is required to
A NA L Y T I C S
assemble the puzzle pieces into a coherent picture that covers business requirements and minimizes purchasing costs.
Another benefit of this approach is that
a sensitivity analysis can be used to estimate the costs of business constraints
and challenge business stakeholders on
the ones that are less crucial to business
(see Figure 3). For example, typical sourcing events for transport services result in
an 8 percent to 12 percent cost reduction.
Sourcing with strategic network
design. Sourcing optimization conducted jointly with strategic network
design can be especially beneficial. In
M A Y / J U N E 2 014
41
B U S IN E S S DE C I S I O N -M A K I NG
42
A N A LY T I C S - M A G A Z I N E . O R G
W W W. I N F O R M S . O R G
A NA L Y T I C S
M A Y / J U N E 2 014
43
B U S IN E S S DE C I S I O N -M A K I NG
Figure 5-2
Gephi (gephi.org),
an open-source
graph visualization
and manipulation
software program,
can be used to
highlight complexity and interlinks
between supply
chain tiers to derive
a cost-efficient and
sustainable setup
(see Figure 5-2).
Circos (circos.ca),
which takes data
from a table and
converts it into a
circular layout,
can show the
links between
three types
of blending
products
and their
components
to come up
with the most
economical
component
purchases
(see Figure
5-3).
Figure 5-3
44
A N A LY T I C S - M A G A Z I N E . O R G
W W W. I N F O R M S . O R G
Visual Analytics
Opportunity
at your fingertips.
sas.com/VAdemo
SAS and all other SAS Institute Inc. product or service names are registered trademarks or trademarks of SAS Institute Inc. in the USA and other countries. indicates USA registration. Other brand and product names are trademarks of their respective companies. 2014 SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved. S120597US.0214
VO L UME, VE LO C I T Y, VA R I E T Y A N D ...
The big V
of big data
Keys to tapping the hidden value of big data.
A N A LY T I C S - M A G A Z I N E . O R G
47
B IG DATA
compression techniques have resulted in organizations being able to get insights from data quicker.
As organizations come to terms with managing
big data and harnessing them through systems and
converge their usage with traditional data sources,
the business analytics to guide decision-making is
itself evolving. This article will focus on how analytics has been influenced by big data and what
practices will emerge in years to come through observations within Hewlett Packard.
UNITED WE ARE BIG, DIVIDED WE MAY
BE SMALL
For business analytics to be successful in meeting an organizations needs for decision support,
it fundamentally needs to be able to consider all
data sets relevant to solving a particular business
question.
Traditional business intelligence (BI) and enterprise data warehouse (EDW) environments focus
on the usual data generated from business operations. This is data generated through point of sale
transactions, customer data, financial, business
planning data, inventory management systems, etc.
Businesses today, however, also have access
to two other key forms of data. The first of these can
be loosely categorized as human information; this
form of data comes from having increased knowledge of customers through e-mail, social media
and other marketing channels, but also from an organizations institutional data in the form of documents and customer support call records, as well
as video, audio and image sources. This data tends
to be unstructured in format.
48
A N A LY T I C S - M A G A Z I N E . O R G
W W W. I N F O R M S . O R G
A NA L Y T I C S
M A Y / J U N E 2 014
49
B IG DATA
A N A LY T I C S - M A G A Z I N E . O R G
51
B IG DATA
A N A LY T I C S - M A G A Z I N E . O R G
SUMMARY
Big data has influenced the entire
spectrum of analytics from data ingestion, storage, preparation, modeling and
deployment. Organizations are exhibiting rigor in trying to harness big data
through innovations in information infrastructure and information management.
New core analytics techniques and practices are also changing to accommodate
for the challenges of volume and variety of data associated with big data. A
new era of volume, velocity and variety
is leading the way for value creation in
organizations like never before.
Dr. Pramod Singh is director of Digital and Big
Data Analytics at Hewlett-Packard and a member
of INFORMS. Ritin Mathur is senior manager of
Big Data Analytics at HP. Arindam Mondal and
Shinjini Bhattacharya are data scientists at HP.
All four are based in Bangalore, India.
REFERENCES
1. Levent Ertoz, Michael Steinbach and Vipin
Kumar, DBSCAN: Finding Clusters of Different
Sizes, Shapes and Densities in Noisy, High
Dimensional Data, paper, Department of
Computer Science, University of Minnesota.
2. Sudipto Guha, Rajeev Rastogi and Kyuseok
Shim, CURE: An Efficient Algorithm for Large
Databases, Proceedings of the ACM SIGMOD
Conference, 1998.
3. Tian Zhang, Raghu Ramakrishnan and Miron
Livny, BIRCH presentation, 2009.
Subscribe to Analytics
Its fast, its easy and its FREE!
Just visit: http://analytics.informs.org/
W W W. I N F O R M S . O R G
ADVEN T U RE S I N C O NS U LT I NG
Whats a defense
consulting company
doing in sports?
BY STEPHEN CHAMBAL
he Perduco Group is a small
defense consulting company in Dayton, Ohio, near
Wright Patterson Air Force
Base (WPAFB). The company specializes
in high-end data analytics with core competencies in data architecting, business
intelligence and business analytics. Perduco was formed in 2011 and has grown
rapidly to 21 employees. Twenty of those
employees are working in the defense
space, and one, Dr. Jacob Loeffelholz,
is the lead for a strategic push into the
sports domain. Now, what is a defense
consulting company doing with a director
for sports analytics? The easy answer is
simple: sports are fun. However, the real
54
A N A LY T I C S - M A G A Z I N E . O R G
Football heatmap:
visualizing player
performance in any
situation.
55
ADVEN T U RE S I N C O NS U LT I NG
A N A LY T I C S - M A G A Z I N E . O R G
QUANTIFIED WARRIOR
The defense community is very interested in what is called quantified warrior,
which is an ability to monitor and assess a
soldiers condition and to understand how
to optimize their performance on the battlefield. As one can imagine, athletic teams are
very interested in maximizing their players
performance on the battlefield. A second
example is related to overhead monitoring and the collection of surveillance data
to understand and predict activities on the
ground. The intelligence community is continuously engaged in this type of effort in
order to provide better assessments of enemy activity to commanders on the ground.
W W W. I N F O R M S . O R G
57
ADVEN T U RE S I N C O NS U LT I NG
has read the book or seen the movie Moneyball. The idea of helping teams pick
players, make trades, analyze strategy and
win more games is what sports geeks get
excited about the sexy side of sports analytics. Perduco aggressively pursued direct
team consultation and met with a large
number of organizations at both the professional and collegiate levels and across
multiple sports including football, basketball, baseball and hockey. Professional
basketball quickly became the target of interest, and Perduco developed a number
of prototype applications to demonstrate
the benefits of O.R. capabilities to team
management. Scout scheduling optimization, aggregate player evaluation and prediction of player performance are just a few
of the solutions presented to professional
teams. Although these solutions were well
received, Perduco gained little traction with
respect to establishing formal consulting
agreements with organizations.
TEAM CONSULTATION
Perduco discovered a number of challenges when pursuing direct team consultation. Teams are very protective of
their data and even more protective of the
questions related to team and player challenges. Even with a willingness to sign
non-disclosures and protect data sources,
teams are hesitant to fully share information
with respect to organizational decisions.
58
A N A LY T I C S - M A G A Z I N E . O R G
ontinuing
ducation
Problem Framing
A NA L Y T I C S
ANALYTICS
PROFESSIONALS
Topics areas:
COURSES FOR
DATA EXPLORATION
& VISUALIZATION
Presenting Results
Impact Assessment
Accessing Data
Understanding Raw Data
Cleaning & Transforming Data
Exploring & Visualizing Data
Dimension Reduction
M A Y / J U N E 2 014
59
ADVEN T U RE S I N C O NS U LT I NG
but the decision was made to shift focus, integrated capabilities in the summer of
resources and energy into web-based 2014. A number of capabilities are befan support for fantasy sports.
ing developed, tested and implemented
into the FFToolbox infrastructure. These
FANTASY SPORTS
capabilities will provide users access to
Jacob, working with FFToolbox, advanced analytics for analyzing players,
quickly researched the fantasy sports simulating drafts and visualizing statistilandscape and identified numerous op- cal information in an easy to use and unportunities for advanced analytics and derstandable format. The goal is to put
data visualization. The two companies the power of O.R. in the hands of active
began developing a
fantasy sports players
strategy to move forwho may not otherwise
ward and outlined both
have access to these
the execution and busitypes of mathematical
ness plan to make this happen. The in- algorithms. FFToolbox gives their custegration of FFToolboxs expertise in tomers a competitive advantage of their
fantasy sports and Perducos depth in own when competing in daily, weekly
O.R. provides enormous opportunity and season-long fantasy sports games.
to bring advanced and unique capabili- The fantasy sports market is an exploties to the market space. Furthermore, sive industry with millions of potential
FFToolbox is already recognized as a customers, each looking for an edge and
leader in the space with nearly 10 mil- bragging rights when competing against
lion users visiting their website on an family, friends, co-workers and unknown
annual basis. This footprint provides opponents across the world.
immediate exposure for Perduco analytPerduco has spent nearly two years
ics at a level never imagined this early committed to expanding into the sports
in the companys expansion into sports. domain. Perducos core capabilities in
In fact, the building footprint in sports operations research and its passion to
has led to the spin off of Perduco Sports bring advanced analytics to the sports
from the parent company, The Perduco industry has kept the company moving
Group, which happened in the spring of forward at all times. The expected busi2014.
ness areas have shifted here and there,
Full Time Fantasy and Perduco but with each shift came increased opare on schedule to release their first portunities for success. The chance
60
A N A LY T I C S - M A G A Z I N E . O R G
W W W. I N F O R M S . O R G
www.informs.org/Build-Your-Career/Analytics-Certification
BENEFITS OF CERTIFICATION
Advances your career potential by setting you apart from the competition
Drives personal satisfaction of accomplishing a key career milestone
Helps improve your overall job performance by stressing continuing
professional development
Recognizes that you have invested in your analytics career by pursuing
this rigorous credential
Boosts your salary potential by being viewed as experienced
analytics professional
CBT
Shows competence in the principles and practices of analytics
APPLICATIONS
COST
QUESTIONS? certification@mail.informs.org
A NA L Y T I C S
STARTING
JUNE 1
YOUR
SCHEDULE
Kryterion Test
Centers
Computer
Based Test
(CBT)
MAY 22
Cincinnati, OH
MAY 26
Ottawa, ON
JUNE 19
Chicago
JUNE 21
San Jose, CA
NOW INTRODUCING
COMPUTER-BASED TESTING
It is now more convenient than ever to schedule your CAP
exam in more than 700 Kryterion test centers in more than
100+ countries. No more waiting for INFORMS to come to
you! To find the location closest to you, check this site:
http://www.kryteriononline.com/host_locations/
M A Y / J U N E 2 014
61
IN A FEW
HOURS
MISSION CRITICAL
ENTERPRISE APP
IN A FEW
MONTHS
PUBLISHED
INSTANTLY
TO YOUR ENTERPRISE
OPTIMIZATION
APP STORE
PROOF OF
CONCEPT
IN A FEW
DAYS
OPTIMIZATION APP
IN A FEW
WEEKS
S T R AT E G Y & O R G A N I Z AT I O N
TECHNOLOGY
E N G I N E E R I N G & O P E R AT I O N S
A N A LY T I C S
2012 INFORMS
Innovation in Analytics
Award Winner
Ready for whats next. Now more than ever, making sense of large, complex data sets is
critical to an organizations success. Supported by extensive industry experience, our analytics experts
are armed to help clients make informed decisions and turn choices into action. These insights help our
clients anticipate, identify, and address their specific needsfrom achieving cost savings to reducing fraud,
waste, and abuse. We leverage these analytics capabilities to help clients across US and international
governments in defense, intelligence, and civil sectors, as well as commercial health, financial services, and
energy and utilities industries. Whether youre managing todays issues or looking beyond the horizon, count
on us to help you be ready for whats next.
Ready for whats next. www.boozallen.com/analytics
Congratulations to the
2014 Franz Edelmen Finalists!
SCIENTIFIC SOLUTIONS
www.metsci.com
TOPTop
20
PROGRAM
in the country
InformationWeek
@UCBusAnalytics | @LindnerCollege
EXECUTIVE LEVEL
CHAMPION LEVEL
SUSTAINER LEVEL
www.informs.org
www.informs.org/aboutanalytics
PR ED IC TIVE A N A LY T I C S
BY THOMAS H.
DAVENPORT
62
A N A LY T I C S - M A G A Z I N E . O R G
W W W. I N F O R M S . O R G
A NA L Y T I C S
visit http://join.informs.org
M A Y / J U N E 2 014
63
PR ED IC TIVE A N A LY T I C S
A N A LY T I C S - M A G A Z I N E . O R G
point of predictive analytics is not the relative size or unruliness of your data, but
what you do with it. I have found that big
data often equals small math, and many
big data practitioners are content just to
use their data to create some appealing
visual analytics. Thats not nearly as valuable as creating a predictive model.
Siegel has fashioned a book that
is both sophisticated and fully accessible to the non-quantitative reader. Its
got great stories, great illustrations and
an entertaining tone. Such non-quants
should definitely read this book, because
there is little doubt that their behavior
will be analyzed and predicted throughout their lives. Its also quite likely that
most non-quants will increasingly have
to consider, evaluate and act on predictive models at work.
In short, we live in a predictive society.
The best way to prosper in it is to understand the objectives, techniques and limits of predictive models. And the best way
to do that is simply to read Siegels book.
Thomas H. Davenport (www.tomdavenport.com)
is a visiting professor at Harvard Business School,
the Presidents Distinguished Professor at Babson
College, co-founder of the International Institute
for Analytics and the co-author of Competing on
Analytics and several other books on analytics.
He is a member of INFORMS. This foreword by
Professor Davenport is excerpted with permission of
the publisher, Wiley, from Predictive Analytics: The
Power to Predict Who Will Click, Buy, Lie, or Die
(February 2013) by Eric Siegel and is reprinted for
promotional considerations.
W W W. I N F O R M S . O R G
At Gurobi,
we make it easier to achieve
your optimization goals.
Faster solutions with superior
algorithms and powerful tuning
Maximum productivity with flexible
interfaces and modeling language support
Great technical support from
easy-to-reach optimization experts
No surprises with our transparent
pricing and flexible licensing
CO N FERE N C E P R E V I E W
A N A LY T I C S - M A G A Z I N E . O R G
Bill Franks
Michael Svilar
Early registration rates will be available until May 23. Rooms are being held
at the Marriott San Jose at a discounted
rate until May 26. Conference organizers anticipate that rooms will sell quickly
and advise attendees to make reservations early, well before the cut-off date.
After that date, reservations will be accepted at prevailing rates on a room
available basis.
Visit http://meetings.informs.org/bigdata2014/ for more information on the
INFORMS Big Data Conference.
A NA L Y T I C S
M A Y / J U N E 2 014
67
CO N FERE N C E P R E V I E W
K
aiser Permanente Anton J. Mobley,
MS, security data scientist
B
ooz Allen Hamilton Peter Guerra,
BS, principal
IBM Kevin Foster, MS, big data
solutions architect
K
overse, Inc. Paul Brown, MS, CEO
and founder
V
erizon Wireless Anne Robinson,
Ph.D., director, supply chain strategy
& analytics
B
ooz Allen Hamilton Brian Keller,
Ph.D., data scientist
T
eradata Aster Lee Paries, vice
S
AS Paul Kent, B Commerce (WITS),
B
ell Laboratories Marina Thottan,
director
A
lpine Data Labs William C. Ford,
lead data scientist
68
A N A LY T I C S - M A G A Z I N E . O R G
K
aggle Anthony Goldbloom, B
Commerce, founder and CEO
S
AP Chris Hallenbeck, global vice
president
P
ivotal Kaushik Das, senior principal
data scientist
GraphLab Shawn Scully, data scientist
W W W. I N F O R M S . O R G
Organizing Committee
General Chair
Candace A. Yano
University of California-Berkeley
Program Chair
Philip Kaminsky
University of California-Berkeley
Plenary/Keynotes Chair
Shmuel S. Oren
University of California-Berkeley
Invited Sessions Co-Chairs
Hyun-Soo Ahn
Damien Beil
University of Michigan
Sponsored Sessions Co-Chairs
Alper Atamturk
Zuo-Jun Max Shen
University of California-Berkeley
Contributed Sessions Co-Chairs
Rachel Chen
University of California-Davis
Steven Nahmias
Santa Clara University
Practice Program Co-Chairs
Vijay Mehrotra
San Francisco State University
Warren Lieberman
Veritec Solutions
Thomas Dag Olavson
Google, Inc.
meetings2.informs.org/sanfrancisco2014
INFO RM S IN I T I AT I VE
expected to:
participants will:
interactive visualization;
meaningful discoveries;
Q&A sessions.
Course dates: June 20-21, San Jose, Calif.
70
A N A LY T I C S - M A G A Z I N E . O R G
W W W. I N F O R M S . O R G
Each issue of Foresight contains articles that youll use in your day-today work, whatever types of forecasting you do.
Issue 26
Summer 2012
THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF APPLIED FORECASTING
THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF APPLIED FORECASTING
Issue 27
Fall 2012
THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF APPLIED FORECASTING
THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF APPLIED FORECASTING
Subscribe today!
forecasters.org/foresight/subscribe/
Issue 29
Spring 2013
THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF APPLIED FORECASTING
THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF APPLIED FORECASTING
5 Forecasting revenue
in Professional Service Companies
14 Forecast value added:
A Reality Check on Forecasting Practices
19 s&oP and Financial Planning
26 cPFr: Collaboration Beyond S&OP
39 Progress in Forecasting rare events
50 Review of "global trends 2030:
alternative Worlds"
Foresight | IIF Business Office | 53 Tesla Ave. | Medford, MA 02155 USA | forecasters@forecasters.org | +1 781 234 4077
FIVE- M IN U T E A N A LYST
BY HARRISON
SCHRAMM, CAP
72
A N A LY T I C S - M A G A Z I N E . O R G
W W W. I N F O R M S . O R G
73
FIVE- M IN U T E A N A LYST
SOME EXCURSIONS
Suppose I could have one piece of
information. A likely choice would be:
How much better off would we be if
we knew the eventual winner? In this
case, we would reduce the number of
possibilities in each round by 1; and the
number of combinations would only be
, which
is 64 times better than the original estimate. Sixty-four is generally reckoned
to be a small number when compared
18
to 10 . If you knew the Final Four, you
would be considerably better off, at
,
or 520,000 times better than the original
bet, which is to say that in the scheme
of things, you are no better off at all.
Now suppose that you had to pay
$1 to play this game instead of it being
free, but you think you are pretty good at
predicting basketball games. You would
need to have 72 percent accuracy in
your ability to pick basketball games to
be risk neutral for a dollar (i.e., 72 percent accuracy increases your odds of
winning to 1 in 1 billion).
As bad as these odds are, heres a
game that is even worse, which I will
call the Georgetown Wager (after my
colleague who challenged me to come
up with a tougher game). Suppose that
you are given the 64 teams that will play,
but the games are randomized and you
74
A N A LY T I C S - M A G A Z I N E . O R G
Your latest member benefit lets you learn from the best on your schedule.
http://livewebcast.net/INFORMS_Video_Learning_Center
A NA L Y T I C S
M A Y / J U N E 2 014
75
FIVE- M IN U T E A N A LYST
A N A LY T I C S - M A G A Z I N E . O R G
W W W. I N F O R M S . O R G
Analytics
SAS and Hadoop take on
the Big Data challenge.
And win.
sas.com/tdwi
SAS and all other SAS Institute Inc. product or service names are registered trademarks or trademarks of SAS Institute Inc. in the USA and other countries. indicates USA registration. Other brand and product names are trademarks of their respective companies. 2014 SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved. S120598US.0214
THIN K IN G A N A LY T I CA LLY
Spy catcher
BY JOHN TOCZEK
John Toczek is the senior director
of Decision Support and Analytics for
ARAMARK Corporation in the Global
Operational Excellence group. He
earned a bachelor of science degree
in chemical engineering at Drexel
University (1996) and a masters
degree in operations research from
Virginia Commonwealth University
(2005). He is a member of INFORMS.
78
A N A LY T I C S - M A G A Z I N E . O R G
W W W. I N F O R M S . O R G
OPTIMIZATION
www.gams.com
High-Level Modeling
The General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS)
is a high-level modeling system for mathematical programming problems. GAMS is tailored for
complex, large-scale modeling applications, and
allows you to build large maintainable models that
can be adapted quickly to new situations. Models
are fully portable from one computer platform to
another.
State-of-the-Art Solvers
GAMS incorporates all major commercial and
academic state-of-the-art solution technologies for
a broad range of problem types.
Europe
GAMS Software GmbH
info@gams.de
USA
GAMS Development
Corporation
sales@gams.com
http://www.gams.com