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SYNTHETIC SERIES PRODUCED BY MEANS OF
PROBABILITY ANALYSIS AS APPLIED TO THE RIVER
RHINE
L. SIEGERSTETTER Dipl. Math.
Published online: 04 Jan 2010.
To cite this article: L. SIEGERSTETTER Dipl. Math. (1971) SYNTHETIC SERIES PRODUCED BY MEANS OF PROBABILITY
ANALYSIS AS APPLIED TO THE RIVER RHINE, International Association of Scientific Hydrology. Bulletin, 16:3, 103-113, DOI:
10.1080/02626667109493775
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Bulletin of the International Association of Scientific Hydrology, XVI, 3 9/1971
SYNTHETIC SERIES PRODUCED BY MEANS OF PROBABILITY
ANALYSIS AS APPLIED TO THE RIVER RHINE
Dipl. Math. L. SIEGERSTETTER
SUMMARY
Using the Rhine as an example, a method is shown which should render possible long-termp-redictions of river-flows to a
certain extend on the basis of sufficiently long series of recordings. -
A necessary condition is to consider hydrological processes under a non-deterministic model, which justifies the applica-
tion of statistic techniques, f.e. the fitting of suitable probability distribution functions. Since one specific prediction is not
possible, a first indication is given on how to draw conclusions from a greater number of forecasts.
RESUME
En se servant du Rhin comme exemple, une methode est presentee pour resoudre la prediction fluviale a long terme, jusqu'a
un certain degre, sur la base de series de mesurements embrassant une periode de suffisamment longue duree.
La condition necessaire est de considerer Ie proces hydrologique sous un modele non-deterministique ou l'application de
techniques statistiques serait justifie, p.e. de fonctions de repartition aleatoire.
Puisqu'une seule prediction specifique n'est pas possible, une premiere indication est donnee, comment tirer des conclusions
d'un important nombre de predictions.
1. INTRODUCTION
Streamflow records are usually obtained by sequentially noting down water levels expressed
in terms of quantities of water. Since a continuous recording would be too expensive and would
complicate any interpretation, daily, monthly and yearly mean values of runoff have been
introduced. To make the recording sensible it is necessary to define a mapping from each runoff
value onto equidistant poinst of the time axis. But it was only in November 1868 that the first
international conventions concerning a systematic recording of the most important river data
were agreed upon in Basle on the River Rhine. For that reason the records seldom go back
more than a few decades, especially in non-European countries. This can raise problems parti-
cularly in the field of hydraulic engineering where it is often necessary to have an idea of the
expected long-term runoff. To estimate the dimension of a reservoir with regard to a critical
occurrence which can be expected once in every hundred years, records for a thousand years
have to be at disposal. Since these are not available, it seemed obvious to try to predict them
on the basis of present knowledge.
To do so hydrological investigations under a deterministic model with given parameters
have to be defined. Although the flow at a particular point is dependent on certain measurable
or calculable factors, for example precipitation, catchment area, and temperature, it is not
possible to use a deterministic model here. Quite apart from the fact that in a long-term predic-
tion it would be necessary to forecast some of the variables themselves, they are so many in
number and have such high-order interactions that they cannot be disciplined for computing.
Therefore it is unavoidable and reasonable, too, to introduce a non-deterministic model, for
considering random events.
Then a few mathematical algorithms are available as shown in fig. 1.
It is possible to make further subdivisions especially in the case of stochastic processes,
although this is not relevant here where only random events are to be dealt with.
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Hydrologic Process
_________________________________ il
\r
indetern1inistic process
:1 ----------------
deterministic process
(not possible)
I:
Ii
stochastic process
(time dependent)
probabilistic process
(time independent)
_______________________________ 11 _
:\ I:
I I'
]1 i
pure-random process non pure-random p r ~ s s
Fig. 1. Classification of hydrological processes
60 50 40 30 20 10
n
Fig. 2. Approach to a synthetic population by Barnes
2
3
4
While no attempt is made in this paper at reviewing all the research done on the problem,
one should be conscious of that undertaken by Hazen (1914), Sudler (1927) and Barnes (1953)
when discussing ,synthetic hydrology'. Barnes in particular gave the first impetus to a modern
way of treating the problem. He investigated suitable probability distributions for each series
of observations using the chi - square test. The fitting of the normal distribution was always
preferable. To generate a synthetic population of size n he divided the area under the proba-
bility curve into n equal strips (fig. 2). It followed that there was an equal chance that in any
particular year the streamflow would fall into
anyone area. If the observations in each strip
are approximated by their mean value, the lat-
ter will constitute a synthetic population of
streamflows , each of which is equally likely to
occur. Consequently the synthetic series must
be produced by selecting values from the pop-
ulation at random. According to Barnes
one hundred chances were a reasonable
number to manipulate. This approach will
be the basis for the method investigated in
this paper. A similar approach has been used
Cm
a
J by Brittan (1961) for applications to the Colo...
rado River in the U.S.A.
2. GENERATION OF SINTHETIC SERIES FOR THE RIVER RHINE
Comments were made from many sides about the dangers of using unedited data for sta-
tistical purposes. Various techniques are available for a preliminary check on the validity of
the observations. In order to simplify matters, it is assumed that one has an accurate series
with no inconsistent values. Experience has indicated that at least forty observations are desirable
It has been shown by Bechteler (1969) that recordings made on the Rhine for 153 years form
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such a series. For the purposes of statistical analysis it is assulned that these data are a repre-
sentative sample from the infinite of flow nleasuren1ents at this point.
One difference between this and previous approaches should be pointed out at this stage.
By the very nature of statistics no conclusions can be drawn from one single synthetic series.
One can only predict with a certain confidence what will happen in the long run and not on
one specific occasion. However, this lack of assertion is considerably decreased by the use of
computers. In other words as many predictions as possible should be produced and use each
of them for the simulation of future events, e.g. the effect on the filling of a reservoir. It is only
by analysing all the results that statements concerning of a reservoir can be made with a certain
confidence.
2.1. Generation of a synthetic population
It is clear that it is not sensible to produce long artificial series on the basis of relatively few
predicted values especially when sampling without replacement. Additional correlations could
be created, and this should be avoided at all costs if runoff is to be regarded as a randomevent.
In addition to this exactly the same water quantities are to be expected several times throughout
the predicted period. Experience has shown that the sums of series of runoff values have hardly
ever been identical for periods of equal length for a givep river (table 1). Therefore the synthetic
population should contain at least as many elements as the series to be predicted.
TABLE 1. Sums of runoff for equal periods of time (Rhine)
1811-1820 1821-1830 1831-1840 1841-1850 1851-1860
340,970 322,616 312,796 335,697 318,975


2.1.1. Analysis of the observed runoff seri?s
The elements of the observed series are now regarded as the re3.lisations of a certain random
variable X. To describe X a probability function is to be fitted to the sample (Xl' X2' ... , x
n
)
Figure 3 shows the plotting of the ranked runoff values on normal probability paper. Applica-
tion of the x
2
-test. confirmed that the assumption of a normally distributed sample could not
be rejected at the 95 %confidence level. So it can be assumed that the sample from a
normally distributed population. Normal distribution function is given by
where is the expected value and a is the standard deviation.
In addition to the Gaussian Normal other distributions are often applied in the field of
hydrology. It is sometimes maintained that some of these are more suitable for hydrological
problems than is the Gaussian distribution, especially since it is completely symmetrical and
attributes non-zero probability to negative values, whereas negativ runoffs do not occur in
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Fig. 3. Plotting of the Rhine readings on normal probability paper
nature. But if it is considered that an expected value of 1000 [u] and a standard deviation of
100 [u] assigns to values equal to or less than 600 [u] a probability of occurrence less than
3 10- 5, then one should accept the normal distribution for use in practical problems. Co-
efficients of skewness are usually very small, too, for recordings of river flow.
Above all it is convenient to use the normal distribution because its parameters ~ and a
can easily be estimated by
1
(
In _ )2
a= -=-1 Z X r - ~ 2
n r=l
If the observed series is very short, confidence limits for ~ and (J should also be considered.
Table 2 shows the range in which the predicted flows could lie with a predetermined confidence
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level of 95 %for;. It is interesting to see that Marcoviac (1965) investigated the fit of the normal
distribution to 446 series of runoffs. He found that it was appropriate for 332 series at the 95 %
level and and for 356 at the 99 %level.
TABLE 2. Effects of a confidence level for on the synthetic series
1063.69
838.07
1125.42
672.76
996.13
1217.92
942.15
784.91
606.37
1009.31
946.51
896.91
639.48
1106.92
827.83
1102.46
737.56
924.76
931.71
969.46
1255.27
1123.37
1053.41
1072.84
899.89
1236.81
1028.83
1214.34
1072.40
996.53
1088.80
866.01
1149.75
702.78
1022.09
1241.09
968.79
813.52
637.22
1035.10
973.09
924.11
669.91
1131.49
855.90
1127.08
766.76
951.61
958.48
995.75
1277.97
1147.72
1078.64
1097.83
927.06
1259.74
1054.37
1237.56
1097.39
1022.48
1115.49
889.87
1177.22
724.55
1047.93
1269.72
993.95
836.71
658.16
1061.11
998.31
948.71
691.27
1158.73
879.63
1154.26
789.35
976.55
983.51
1021.26
1307.07
1175.17
1105.21
1124.64
951.69
1288.61
1080.63
1266.15
1124.20
1048.33
But, of course, the approach indicated in this paper can also be made for any suitable
probability distribution.
After standardising the normal distribution by use of the transformation
~
u=--
a
a synthetic population can easily be generated by random processes. Thus it consists of a col-
lection of purely random elements. Each magnitude of streamflow is equally likely to occur
and thus it would be possible to obtain alternate high and low values. Such a pattern is hardly
ever to be found in flow records. In order to use all the information available the original series
will be analysed in terms of possible non-random components, which should give further expla-
nation as to the sequence of magnitudes of flows.
2.1.2. Non-random components of the series
In investigating hydrological processes it is natural to assume that some periodicities could
be found in any series of observations. For the following analysis it is necessary to find a period
consisting of an integral number of years. If this should not be possible, a transformation into
different time units could solve the problem, e.g. from one-year mean values to half-year mean
values.
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An analysis of the readings for the Rhine by autocorrelation and spectral analysis showed
up the possibility of a hidden five-year period. For this reason the series was looked at in five-
year moving. samples.
TABLE 3. Frequency disstribution for the five year mean values of runoff
Range
875.24- 942.50
942.51--1009.76
1009.77-1077.02
1077.03-1144.28
1144.29-1211.54
%
13
30
33
_17
7
Five year means which must lie between the maximum and the minimum of all values in
the series have a frequency distribution which is shown in table 3. Since the sample is assumed
to be representative, such a distribution should also be obtained for the desired synthetic pop-
ulation. Plotting of a large number of different series showed a certain tendency for a few
values which followed each other to be of similar magnitude. A measurement for this grouping
is given by the cofficient of variation, which is defined as
and
'['"
l_ -+---'---t--'--t-I-,-: X

where in this special case i runs from 1 to (n-4). It is obvious that each Vi gives an idea of the
dispersion of five values about their mean.
Since grouping does not imply that the elements must be identical, it can be investigated
whether the five values show an overall increase or decrease, and whether this tendency is marked
or slight. This has been done by computing the linear trend (by application of the method of
least squares) for each group of five values. The frequency distribution of the gradients has
been tabulated in a way analogous to that shown in table 3. It is quite simple to carryover
this distribution to the synthetic population. Since the latter consequently is produced in groups
of five values, it is sufficient to impose on the five random numbers a trend, drawn at random
from the range observed in the historIcal data, always paying attention to the tabulated distri-
butions of gradients, means, etc.
Usually it is difficult to choose new extreme values for the synthetic population. Formerly
they have been assumed to be the same as in
the original series. This would not be sensible
if, for example, the smallest observation were
far away from the next smallest and its proba-
bility of occurence were minimal. Otherwise
too many small values would be accepted for
the synthetic population. (In this eventuality it
would certainly be advisable to re-check the
method of data collection).
In such a case other possibilities present
Fig. 4. Frequency distribution for the minima of five-year
groups themselves, for example, one can draw up the
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\

distribution of minima of all five-year moving groups, as shown in figure 4. One can choose
the cut-off point M so that the probability of a minimum less than M is equal to a predetermined
value-'smoothing extremes'. The minimum for the synthetic population as obtained by the
above procedure was 643.42 m
3
/sec in comparison with a minimum of 605.60 m
3
/sec in the
original series. However, application of this procedure for maximum and minimum can be
so complicated that it is more straightforward simply to refer to the original distribution.
3. RESULTS
All the above procedures and tests have been run on the TR 4-system of the Leibniz
Rechenzentrum der Bayerischen Akademie der Wissenschaften. The average computing time
for the extraction of fifty 30-year series from a synthetic population of 500 values, with corres-
ponding plots, was just over ten minutes (appendices 1 and 2).
As a check on the applicability of the above methods, only 123 years of the Rhine recording
instead of all 153 were used to compute the 30-year series. There was thus the opportunity to
compare the observed river flow with that predicted.
77 T208-SIEGERSTETTER LRZ MUENCHEN 2.01.71 13 Appendix 1
FUENF SYNTHETISCHE ABFLUSSREIHEN (Five synthetic series)
1971 1136.14 1144.79 1323.63 965.39 814.86
1972 1120.01 1163.17 937.18 1304.51 767.39
1973 1151.49 911.98 1060.73 941.04 840.89
1974 1138.93 1141.93 918.60 1342.94 1106.48
1975 651.28 1229.73 1046.99 956.54 1140.09
1976 709.75 937.99 1269.67 903.29 814.86
1977 956.10 1125.42 1013.98 1055.11 767.39
1978 920.51 842.94 997.17 922.29 840.89
1979 1261.61 1072.67 874.27 1085.60 1106.48
1980 1085.46 1106.58 946.60 1298.00 1140.09
1981 951.25 1022.44 1002.81 875.59 935.44
1982 1043.61 1016.97 1069.04 930.54 1281.88
1983 920.89 808.93 1000.59 1120.35 659.00
1984 1356.89 896.47 1150.73 1171.11 1187.07
1985 960.75 795.09 1124.18 1370.96 1100.92
1986 1106.40 799.68 1150.39 653.48 1323.63
1987 863.88 1178.75 1053.63 976.11 937.18
1988 1100.78 815.74 851.07 1120.17 1060.73
1989 642.33 1057.18 960.72 1070.27 918.68
1990 935.63 1035.17 1024.90 1225.56 1046.99
1991 812.01 935.35 1364.53 1073.64 1161.64
1992 1017.64 1305.72 829.68 1199.35 959.73
1993 1273.20 984.47 1054.64 1068.82 901.54
1994 1002.63 1190.19 1278.80 1206.81 986.95
1995 1199.58 1271.46 1094.33 1150.10 822.96
1996 935.35 1347.41 1112.00 1002.81 907.18
1997 1305.72 824.27 1101.17 1069.04 1069.44
1998 984.47 723.43 867.91 1000.59 1064.81
1999 1190.19 920.13 1166.67 1150.73 1085.10
2000 1271.46 900.25 904.89 1124.18 1022.94
MITTEL DER REIHEN (Means)
1033.53 1016.88 1051.72 1078.13 992.44
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Appendix 2.

61.2Scrios:l
10
1242
20
I )I
30
61.2
)
10 20 30
1242

642

20 30
1242
642
10 20 30
)I
1242

642
5
10
' )t
20 30
1242
(\f\;
--...........
a
./'

642
Orginal :loricn
Vear
r--r- I--r--T-..........-.
10 20 30

1242
642
1242
c:
:J
o
E

642 observed series

20
Vear
I
30
110
Fig. 5. Comparison of a synthetic record with the original record
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Fig. 6. Sketch for simulations
Rhine
By scalar multiplication of the original series (regarded as a 30-d vector) with each of the
synthetic series, it was possible to have some indication of the goodness of fit for each predic-
tion. In some cases an extremely good fit was obtained, see, for example, figure 5. However,
without this opportunity of comparison one cannot know which forecast is the best; but this
indicates that the appproach could produce reasonable predictions.
To have some measure which is independent of
time one could compare, in an analogous way, vec-
tors comprising such parameters as mean, standard
deviation, extreme values, etc. of the 3D-year series.
This improves the results but makes the interpreta-
tion even more difficult.
Finally an attempt was made to draw conclu-
sions for a given problem using fifty predictions at
one time.
The apparatus shown in figure 6 was to be dimensioned to satisfy the following constraints for
30 years:
1. Constant runoff during a year.
2. Minimal amount to remain in the Rhine: 15 m
3
jsec.
3. Reservoir which can take 100 m
3
jsec for a year.
4. Apparatus working at full rate for 80 % of the period.
Each of the predicted series was used for a simulation, the course of which could be tabulated,
for example:
Series number: 35
Computed capacity: 909.41
Unused amounts of water for each year:
0.00 0.00 5.64 25.78 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
332.84 101.98 315.25 73.41 0.00 249.49 138.30 0.00
258.10 49.84 313.29 0.00 0.00 128.73 161.23 53.37
326.76 131.62 210.95 0.00 0.00 0.00
Total: 2876.54
Lack of water for each year:
30.57 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 101.11 2.18 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 177.88 108.03
Total: 419.78
(Steps of iteration: 6)
Statistical analysis of all the results determined the capacity.
Up to now it was only possible to perform two of those experiments. The differences between
the capacities obtained on the computer and that found to be optimal in reality for those 30
years were 3.8 %and 0.01 %respectively.
Acknowledgements.
My thanks go to my colleagues at the Institut ftir Hydraulik und Gewasserkunde and especially
to Jill.
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Extract from a synthetic population Appendix 3
No.
Five runoff values mean
27 989.05 1030.92 1063.76 806.91 965.18 971.16
28 1154.90 782.80 910.31 1043.84 799.80 938.33
29 989.59 1096.20 740.64 950.02 1055.11 966.31
30 978.87 915.02 1011.17 1086.27 974.87 993.24
31 1161.64 959.73 901.54 986.95 822.96 966.56
32 842.60 1033.60 1270.11 949.86 865.01 992.23
33 1070.98 901.36 198.55 781.83 884.90 947.52
34 1313.51 789.25 692.96 1029.73 1015.35 968.16
35 1007.11 762.90 1105.16 970.35 1022.13 973.53
36 718.31 1001.81 977.24 1033.00 970.76 940.22
37 1102.84 1214.82 816.98 761.00 840.51 947.23
38 1168.30 1311.45 871.84 780.65 1024.58 1031.36
39 1112.00 1101.17 867.91 1166.67 904.89 1030.53
40 951.25 1043.61 920.89 1356.89 960.75 1046.68
41 1323.63 937.18 1060.73 918.60 1046.99 1057.43
42 1150.39 1053.63 851.07 960.72 1024.90 1008.14
43 653.48 976.11 1120.17 1070.27 1225.56 1009.12
44 887.78 1110.59 1104.04 1223.24 955.54 1056.24
45 937.99 1125.42 842.94 1720.67 1106.58 1017.12
46 738.50 875.41 1282.48 1242.46 1090.44 1045.86
47 1205.86 755.92 1001.62 1224.33 874.38 1012.42
48 1292.03 1006.18 861.03 1122.90 997.51 1055.93
49 907.10 1069.44 1064.81 1085.10 1022.94 1029.88
50 871.43 1131.56 1095.89 1113.05 994.73 1041.33
51 1085.84 993.34 1048.38 726.34 1201.87 1011.15
52 1142.08 1095.85 939.12 877.22 1025.08 1015.87
53 1074.63 872.59 1258.82 899.41 893.82 999.85
54 903.29 1055.11 922.29 1085.60 1298.00 1052.86
55 913.25 1095.57 813.59 1069.80 1176.92 1013.83
56 960.97 975.13 989.13 1135.71 938.22 999.83
57 1030.13 1088.20 924.99 1254.65 984.53 1056.50
58 829.94 1196.19 1071.92 942.43 977.44 1003.58
59 1216.01 791.90 901.97 901.23 1229.76 1008.17
60 1196.10 1050.76 929.30 1038.85 991.13 1041.23
61 984.05 1046.49 1120.07 986.75 1099.80 1047.43
62 1267.44 1101.56 1094.02 681.36 861.50 1001.17
63 843.38 995.98 902.61 1220.16 1145.97 1021.62
64 1269.67 1013.98 997.17 874.27 946.60 1020.34
65 864.94 1374.25 868.14 1257.20 915.68 1056.04
66 935.44 1281.88 659.00 1187.07 1100.92 1032.86
67 1136.14 1120.01 1151.49 1138.93 651.28 1039.57
68 1051.34 1024.10 1250.87 1171.33 1001.80 1099.89
69 1114.04 1136.85 1232.98 990.57 868.49 1068.59
70 1363.60 1056.68 799.53 1055.39 1270.07 1109.05
71 1163.32 937.94 1343.07 1129.66 865.65 1087.93
72 1160.00 961.80 1296.71 1270.44 909.20 1119.63
73 920.69 1087.81 1075.83 1133.73 1270.49 1097.71
74 1178.28 896.24 1221.04 871.79 1281.03 1089.67
75 1115.69 953.21 981.46 1151.33 1092.70 1058.88
76 917.14 1143.89 1078.16 1304.15 944.73 1077.61
77 952.17 883.05 1153.14 1368.94 1137.39 1098.94
78 906.02 1220.41 1153.00 1066.73 978.43 1064.92
79 1072.75 1256.57 857.04 1085.12 1173.47 1088.99
80 962.70 1196.00 1127.52 1256.92 1022.46 1113.12
81 1144.79 1163.17 911.98 1141.93 1229.73 1118.32
112
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Appendix 3
No. Five runoff values mean
82 1289.12 1123.97 898.23 974.74 1023.01 1061.81
83 943.12 1352.77 796.88 1234.18 997.91 1064.97
84 1072.43 1105.14 878.45 1203.13 1198.55 1091.54
85 812.01 1017.64 1273.20 1002.63 1199.58 1061.01
86 1251.01 1151.60 1273.45 698.29 950.85 1065.04
87 1036.15 875.52 1062.28 1096.44 1228.14 1059.71
88 1002.81 1069.04 1000.59 1150.73 1124.18 1069.47
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