Toyotas Technology Roadmap to Meet

the 2017-2025 CAFE Standards

Toyotas Technology Roadmap to Meet
the 2017-2025 CAFE Standards
NRC Presentation
RE: Assessment of Technologies for Improving
Fuel Economy of Light-Duty Vehicles Phase 2
December 3
rd
2012
2
Introduction
I. Technical Roadmap through 2021MY
Pathways to Improve Fuel Efficiency
2017-2021MY Compliance Approach
Summarize Compliance Prospects
II. Prospects beyond 2021MY
ICE Improvements
HV Expansion
Challenges
Summary
Outline
3
Toyota appreciates the opportunity to provide the following
technology perspective with regards to the 2017-2025MY
GHG/Fuel Economy Standards.
In recognition of the previous work conducted by NRC, we
trust that the information provided today will assist NRC in
reaching a reasonable conclusion and making informed
recommendations in the final report.
Toyota would welcome the opportunity to have further
dialogue with NRC members as a follow-up to the information
that is being provided today.
Introduction
4
Presentation Category
I. Toyotas technical roadmap to comply with
FE/GHG standards through 21MY.
II. Prospects beyond 2021MY.
Pathways to Improved Fuel Efficiency
5
Efficiency
Improvement
Reduction of engine
emission
New variable valve sys.
Mass EGR
Next generation D4
Apply CVT
Staging of A/T
Lock up at low
speed
Weight reduction (with downsizing)
Reduction of air drag, tires RRC, etc
Energy management
Bio-fuel Vehicles
Ethanol capable (E10, E20, E85)
Bio diesel
Regional application of vehicles
CNG Vehicles
PHV, EV & FCHVs
Reduction in Vehicle
Road Load
Cost reduction
Reduction of engine emission
Optimization of HV system
Expand HV applic.
Response to ZEV compliance, move
toward full scale application
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Saving
Oil
Reducing Oil
Dependency
6
2017-21MY Toyota Compliance Approach
Technology Deployment Priority Technology Deployment Priority
High priority
1. Advances in ICE Technology
2. Improvements in Drive-train Technology
3. Hybridization: Expand application and improve technology
4. Mass Reduction
5. Improvements in Aerodynamics/Rolling Resistance
6. ATV Introducing
7
2017-21MY Toyota Compliance Approach
Technology Deployment Priority Technology Deployment Priority
High priority
1. Advances in ICE Technology
2. Improvements in Drive-train Technology
3. Hybridization: Expand application and improve technology
4. Mass Reduction
5. Improvements in Aerodynamics/Rolling Resistance
6. ATV Introducing
8
ICE & Drivetrain Technologies
Approach is to improve ICE efficiency in concert with an
optimum drivetrain configuration that will enable frequent
operation in the engines highly efficient area.
Approach is to improve ICE efficiency in concert with an
optimum drivetrain configuration that will enable frequent
operation in the engines highly efficient area.
9
ICE Improvement Concept
Two distinct approaches for improving the thermal efficiency. Two distinct approaches for improving the thermal efficiency.
Increase CR and/or Lean A/F
Downside: Reduced Peak Power Downside: Increased Knocking Risk
Reduce Energy Losses (friction, heat, etc.)
E.g. Atkinson Cycle
E.g. Boosting & Downsizing
10
ICE Improvement Concept
Small class conventional engine already operates in high efficiency zone,
so the effect of TDS (expanding efficiency zone) is smaller than large class.
Ne
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Q

N
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Ne
T
R
Q

N
m

Operating area
Operating area
High efficiency
Zone (original)
High efficiency
Zone (TDS)
High efficiency
Zone (TDS)
Small engine
displacement
Large engine
displacement
High efficiency
Zone (original)
Small size car Large size car
Downsizing
effect
11
ICE Improvement Concept
Ne
T
R
Q

N
m

Operating area
High efficiency
Zone (original)
Small engine
displacement
Small size car
Improve thermal
efficiency of ICE
(Atkinson)
Adapt CVT / THS Synergy for
drivetrain application
Increasing maximum thermal efficiency combined with CVT or THS offers
the best approach for small car applications.
Since peak efficiency occurs at
lower speed and high torque
operation, it is beneficial for CVT
or synergy w/THS type application
12
ICE Improvement Concept
Ne
T
R
Q

N
m

Operating area
High efficiency
Zone (TDS)
Large engine
displacement
High efficiency
Zone (original)
Large size car
Incorporate
Downsizing
Adapting multi speed A/T, drivetrain
enables better use of middle torque area.
Broadening high thermal efficiency area combined with A/T, DCT, offers the
best approach for large size car applications.
Expanding the usable, middle torque
area of the ICE can benefit these types
of drivetrain applications .
13
ICE Technology Penetration
2016MY 2021MY
EPA
estimation
Toyota
estimation
GDI
Others
Others
GDI
TDS
TDS(+GDI)
GDI
TDS(+GDI)
Others
Others
Toyota balance of GDI, TDS and other technologies is
predicated on development resources, cost, and required
compliance contribution.
14
Drive-train Technology Penetration
2016MY 2021MY
EPA
estimation
Toyota
estimation
others
6 A/T
DCT
others
6 A/T
8 A/T
DCT
others
6 A/T
8 A/T
CVT
6 A/T
8 A/T
CVT
Rationale for advanced A/T is that performance is comparable to
that of DCT while considerable development and manufacturing
experience currently exists with this technology.
Rationale for advanced A/T is that performance is comparable to
that of DCT while considerable development and manufacturing
experience currently exists with this technology.
15
2017-21MY Toyota Compliance Approach
Technology Deployment Priority Technology Deployment Priority
High priority
1. Advances in ICE Technology
2. Improvements in Drive-train Technology
3. Hybridization: Expand application and improve technology
4. Mass Reduction
5. Improvements in Aerodynamics/Rolling Resistance
6. ATV Introducing
16
Toyota Hybrid Technology Improvement
Focus on measures that increase maximum thermal efficiency,
as compared to conventional ICE, will offer improved HV F/E.
Focus on measures that increase maximum thermal efficiency,
as compared to conventional ICE, will offer improved HV F/E.
17
Toyota Hybrid Technology Improvement
Toyota is planning to develop higher thermal efficiency engines
to use in future Hybrid Vehicle applications.
Toyota is planning to develop higher thermal efficiency engines
to use in future Hybrid Vehicle applications.
18
Expansion of Hybrid Vehicle
Why will Toyota focus on hybridization ? Why will Toyota focus on hybridization ?
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2

(
g
/
k
m
)
Good
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
0
2010 2020 2030 2040
Year
20
EVFCV
Improved Conventional ICE

Achieving 21MY compliance with only conventional ICE presents a significant challenge.
Mid-size Sedan
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Expansion of Hybrid Vehicle
In short-term,
world wide
introduction:
In short-term,
world wide
introduction:
Worldwide
20
Strong Hybrid Penetration
Toyota believes strong hybrid penetration will be significantly
more than what EPA has estimated in the 2021MY timeframe.
Toyota believes strong hybrid penetration will be significantly
more than what EPA has estimated in the 2021MY timeframe.
EPA
estimation
Toyota
estimation
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0%
10%
20%
2021MY
2016MY
0%
10%
20%
2016MY*
2021MY
*from ONP1 final rule
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(include mild-HV)
Toyota Only
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2017-21MY Toyota Compliance Approach
Technology Deployment Priority Technology Deployment Priority
High priority
1. Advances in ICE Technology
2. Improvements in Drive-train Technology
3. Hybridization: Expand application and improve technology
4. Mass Reduction
5. Improvements in Aerodynamics/Rolling Resistance
6. ATV Introducing
Mass Reduction
Improvement of Fuel
economy for 100lb
down-weighting
Same ETW
Class
With ETW
rank down
about 0.5%
about 1.5%
(1) Effect of vehicle Down-weighting on fuel economy
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
Base
100 lb
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(
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-125lbs
about +0.5
100 lb
+125lbs
Vehicle Test Weight Class (lb)
ETW: Equivalent vehicle Test Weight
about +1.5
22
2021 Average
2016 Average
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Down-
weighting
(2) Efforts toward Down-weighting
Increase of
customer needs
Safety Reg.
etc.
0
Mass Reduction
Safety Equipment
(Around Traffic Detector
Anti Corrision Brake etc)
Comfort Equipment
(Power Back Door etc)
Tire Inch Up
(w/ wheel, brake) etc.
Improve
Fuel Effi.
VVT,VCM
HV/PHV
23
Increase the rate of high-tension steel
Low density Plastics
Adopt Al/Mg/CFRP
Optimization of structure and Engine
displacement and so on (for long-term
challenge)
etc.
Down-weighting will need to be increased as the application of ATV expands.
24
Mass Reduction
Toyota Estimation of Actual Mass Reduction Level Toyota Estimation of Actual Mass Reduction Level
2021MY
(EPA estimation)
2016MY
(Toyota estimation)
2021MY
(Toyota estimation)
about -3%
-3%
25
Summary of Prospects for 2021MY Compliance
Incorporation of ICE technology improvement, Hybrid vehicle
expansion, Mass reduction efforts, among others, will all be
considered in order to meet compliance.
Incorporation of ICE technology improvement, Hybrid vehicle
expansion, Mass reduction efforts, among others, will all be
considered in order to meet compliance.
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2021(EPA) 41% 38% 1% 1% 1% 35% 48% 0% 12% 0% 0% 0% 3%
2021(Toyota) + - + + - = + =~+ =~+ = =
Effect
Cost
26
Summary of Prospects for 2021MY Compliance
VEHICLE TECHNOLOGY ICM COSTS PER
VEHICLE / FUEL CONSUMPTION REDUCTION
(for MY 2017 in 2010 dollars) BY VEHICLE
SUBCLASS
Midsize
Car
Manufac.
Estimate
Large
Lt. Truck
Manufac.
Estimate
Midsize
Car
Manufac.
Estimate
Large
Lt. Truck
Manufac.
Estimate
Nominal Baseline Engine (For Cost
Basis)
I4 (+,,=) V8 (+,,=) I4 (+,,=) V8 (+,,=)
Stoichiometric Gasoline Direct
Injection (GDI)
SGDI $268.45 = == = $536.91 = == = 1.5% = == = 1.5% = == =
Turbocharging and Downsizing -
Level 1 (18 bar BMEP) TRBDS1
$493.60
+ ++ +
$620.79
+ ++ +
8.3%
= = = =
7.3%
= == =
Turbocharging and Downsizing -
Level 2 (24 bar BMEP) TRBDS2
$26.06 $442.27 3.5% 3.4%
With regards to the effect of TDS on fuel consumption, we can
agree with EPAs assumptions. However, EPAs cost estimate
appears to be too conservative.
With regards to the effect of TDS on fuel consumption, we can
agree with EPAs assumptions. However, EPAs cost estimate
appears to be too conservative.
27
Presentation Category
I. Toyotas technical roadmap to comply with
FE/GHG standards through 21MY.
II. Prospects beyond 2021MY.
28
Prospects beyond 2021MY
C
O
2

(
g
/
k
m
)
Good
0
2010 2020 2030 2040
Year
EVFCV
ICE

Continuous improvement
of ICE technologies
Further expansion of Hybridization
Continuous technology
development;
Market acceptance
Required 4.5 percent FE improvement per year
Mid-size Sedan
29
Improvement of ICE technology
C
O
2

(
g
/
k
m
)
Good
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
0
2010 2020 2030
20
EVFCV

High thermal efficiency

High compression ratio
Boosted engine
Lean burn, EGR
Low friction
Pumping loss reduction
Engine operation range
Required 4.5 percent FE improvement per year
Mid-size Sedan
ICE
Continuous improvement
of ICE technologies
30
High Compression Ratio
0
5
10
15
0 20 40
Compression Ratio
T
o
r
q
u
e

(
N
m
)
90RON
100RON
95RON
With Lower RON, knocking
decreases fuel efficiency
(NA Engine) Higher efficiency for all operating conditions with higher
compression ratio.
(Downsizing with Boost) Downsizing improve fuel consumption.
(NA Engine) Higher efficiency for all operating conditions with higher
compression ratio.
(Downsizing with Boost) Downsizing improve fuel consumption.
Downsizing (%)
(Boosting)
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(
%
)+ 95 RON Needed: High octane fuel
will secure effective fuel consumption
improvement for boosting downsizing
Ideal
(same Pme and SFC)
31
Lean Burn Engine
A AA Av vv v. .. . f ff fu uu ue ee el ll l c cc co oo on nn ns ss su uu um mm mp pp pt tt ti ii io oo on nn n w ww wi ii it tt th hh h p pp pe ee er rr ri ii io oo od dd di ii ic cc ca aa al ll l r rr re ee ec cc co oo ov vv ve ee er rr ry yy y c cc co oo on nn nt tt tr rr ro oo ol ll l w ww wh hh he ee en nn n s ss su uu ul ll lf ff fu uu ur rr r a aa ac cc cc cc cu uu um mm mu uu ul ll la aa at tt ti ii io oo on nn n r rr re ee ea aa ac cc ch hh he ee es ss s i ii it tt ts ss s c cc cr rr ri ii it tt te ee er rr ri ii ia aa a a aa at tt t r rr re ee ep pp pe ee ea aa at tt te ee ed dd d F FF FT TT TP PP P) )) )
Fuel consumption without recovery control Fuel consumption without recovery control Fuel consumption without recovery control Fuel consumption without recovery control
1 11 1- -- -
Fuel consumption degrading ratio= Fuel consumption degrading ratio= Fuel consumption degrading ratio= Fuel consumption degrading ratio=
S=10ppm
S=30ppm
S=50ppm
3
4
2
1
0
5
7
6
8
9
10
about 2% improvement about 2% improvement about 2% improvement about 2% improvement
by Sulfur :3010ppm by Sulfur :3010ppm by Sulfur :3010ppm by Sulfur :3010ppm
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Impacts on Fuel Consumption with Sulfur Contents

Lean Burn Engine incurs a fuel penalty for SOx control.
Reducing sulfur from 30 ppm to 10 ppm improves fuel
consumption about 2% by lessening need for recovery control.
Lean Burn Engine incurs a fuel penalty for SOx control.
Reducing sulfur from 30 ppm to 10 ppm improves fuel
consumption about 2% by lessening need for recovery control.
Lean burn engine needs cyclical
SOx, which is stored at catalyst,
and reduction strategy will incur
a fuel penalty.
Ultra low sulfur gasoline fuel
allows a decrease in fuel penalty
because of the reduced SOx
storage.
32
Expand Hybridization
C
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2

(
g
/
k
m
)
Good
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
0
2010 2020 2030 2040
Year
20
EVFCV

Further Expansion of Hybridization

Continuous ICE
development to increase
thermal efficiency
Continuous cost reduction
to secure market
acceptance
Continuous ICE
development to increase
thermal efficiency
Continuous cost reduction
to secure market
acceptance
Mid-size Sedan
ICE
Required 4.5 percent FE improvement per year
33
Prospects beyond 2021MY - Challenges
Category Approaches Challenge
ICE
Improvements
High Compression
Ratio
Lean Burn
Higher Octane
gasoline is needed
Low Sulfur (10ppm)
fuel is required
HV Expansion Additional models
System for Truck
application
Fuel Price
Utility requirements
PHV
Development
Battery
Improvements
Range
Technology
Infrastructure
accessibility
34
Post 2021MY Challenges Methodology
Credit balance and ability to comply must be monitored in addition to technology
improvement and consumer acceptance.
2016 MY baseline fleet average less than 35.5 mpg standard.
Compliance achieved with credits increasingly consumed in year
generated.
2016 MY baseline fleet average less than 35.5 mpg standard.
Compliance achieved with credits increasingly consumed in year
generated.
General Industry Issue
35
Smaller vehicles face higher technology cost up in price sensitive
market segment.
Smaller vehicles face higher technology cost up in price sensitive
market segment.
FE savings meaningless to consumers if cant afford purchase price. Economic
Payback = affordability, and additional feasibility metrics should be considered.
Post 2021MY Challenges Methodology
36
Standards set 13 years into future require assumptions critical to
technology deployment and compliance with standards.
Standards set 13 years into future require assumptions critical to
technology deployment and compliance with standards.
Agency assumptions must be periodically reviewed and feasibility of standards
reconsidered based on new information.
Preference
Affordability
Attitude/Knowledge
Acceptance of
Technologies
Investment payback
Vehicle Technology
Consumers
Fuels
Economic Conditions
Government Policies
Cost/benefit
improvements
Deployment rates
Fleet sales mix
Flexibilities
Incentives
Other regulations
(safety, fuels, etc.)
State mandates
GDP
Unemployment
Income levels
Health of Auto Industry
Price
Availability
Quality/Specs
Infrastructure
Examples of Uncertainty
Post 2021MY Challenges Methodology
37
Request
10 ppm sulfur and 95 RON octane are necessary for TDS
pathway
Affordability must be considered in addition to economic
payback and cost/benefit when determining appropriate
standard level
Agency projections based on uncertain assumptions
(technology cost, performance, fuel price, etc.)
necessitate mid-term review
More information will become available after NRC report
is published, therefore need additional periodic review
before end of mid-term review
38
Summary
Toyotas Technology Roadmap to meet 2021MY CAFE standards
incorporates ICE improvements, HV expansion, and Drive-train as
priority deployment technologies.
Toyota differs from EPAs technology assessment in the following
areas:
Toyota does not see adoption of TDS as EPA projects for 2021
Toyota differs on drivetrain application from EPAs projections
Toyota views strong hybrid application will need to be increased
beyond what EPA has estimated for 2021
Beyond 2021MY, prospects to meet compliance goals are difficult to
predict with confidence but fuel quality/specifications, technology cost,
and market acceptance present major challenges to achieving these
standards.
39
End