ASSESSMENT OF THE COMPETITIVENESS OF THE DAIRY FOOD CHAIN IN ROMANIA
FEBRUARY 2009
Work Package WP2: Studies Deliverable D2.1 Study 1 Coordinator Authors of this report Siemen van Berkum (LEI) PETE ISTVAN, VOLKAN ILDIKO REKA AND TAMAS ERVIN (BABES BOLYAI UNIVERSITY CLUJ NAPOCA) AgriPolicy
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
This report forms part of the deliverables from a project called "AgriPolicy" which has been awarded financial support by the European Commission under the 7th Framework Programme.
The project aims to establish a network of experts involved in agricultural policy analysis and rural development in the 12 New Member States and in the 8 Candidate and Pre Candidate Countries. More information on the project can be found at www.agripolicy.net.
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CONTENT
1 Introduction........................................................................................................................ 4 2 Overview of the sector........................................................................................................ 5 2.1 Sector definition: sector components and importance................................................ 5 2.1.1 Production and value added.................................................................................... 5 2.1.2 Product flows within the sector .............................................................................. 5 2.2 Structural features of the dairy supply chain: present situation and trends overtime. 6 2.2.1 Industry structure at primary level ......................................................................... 6 2.2.2 Industry structure at processing level..................................................................... 7 2.3 Production, consumption and trade developments ..................................................... 8 2.4 Government policy..................................................................................................... 9 2.4.1 Regulatory framework of the dairy sector .............................................................. 9 2.4.2 Other dairy sector relevant policy areas e.g. environment policies, competition policy etc. ......................................................................................................................... 10 3 Performance of the dairy supply chain............................................................................. 11 3.1 Performance at farm level ........................................................................................ 11 3.1.1 Yields.................................................................................................................... 11 3.1.2 Prices .................................................................................................................... 11 3.1.3 Gross margins....................................................................................................... 13 3.2 Performance at industry level................................................................................... 13 3.2.1 Turnover and employment in the dairy industry.................................................. 13 3.2.2 Value added and profits ........................................................................................ 14 3.2.3 Market share developments .................................................................................. 15 3.2.4 Competitiveness at retail level.............................................................................. 15 4 SWOT............................................................................................................................... 16 4.1 Strengths and weaknesses......................................................................................... 16 4.2 Opportunities and Threats ........................................................................................ 17 5 Suggestions for policy recommendations ......................................................................... 19
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Page 4 / 28 1 Introduction The aim of this report is to describe and estimate the state and performance of the dairy sector in each of the countries participating in the Network. The report aims to judge the competitiveness of the dairy sector, to identify key constraints to competitiveness and to suggest some key policy interventions to improve the competitive position of the sector. The dairy sector analysis is undertaken under the FP7 Project Enlargement Network for Agripolicy Analysis, WP2 on studies. The analysis is aimed at providing scientific input for policy making. The study wants to contribute to increased knowledge of and insights into the current situation of the dairy chain in Romania. Assessment of the competitive position of the sector may induce government actions to either help the sector overcome obstacles for further improvement or to help the sector to take advantage of business opportunities in providing an appropriate business environment for this to happen.
The study considers the entire agri-food chain from small-scale production at the farm level through to processing and retailing activities.
This report covers the following issues: a description of the dairy sector based upon secondary data covering (trends in) structural features of (primary) production, imports/exports, domestic consumption, description of the processing industry and the relevant food retail. See the annex for proposed tables to summarise the statistical information necessary for this study; primary data collection using case-studies to illustrate key activities in the sector and identify lessons for the sectors development; an identification of key constraints limiting the competitiveness / development of the sector, based on assessments of a set of performance indicators; SWOT analysis, identifying the strengths and weaknesses, opportunities and threats of the dairy sector in Romania suggestions for policy actions.
The scope of the study may be illustrated by the following proposed structure of the report. After a brief introduction, section 2 provides an overview of the present situation and conditions in the primary (milk) production and (dairy) processing. Section 3 further elaborates on the issue of evaluating factors, which influences competitiveness and efficiency of the chain. Based on these analyses, the sectors strengths and weaknesses, opportunities and threats are identified in section 4. Such a SWOT analysis gives the possibility to define prerequisites and directions for the sectors future development. The recognition of the key constraints should lead to a series of ideas for policies that may address the obstacles to further development and help reduce the inefficiencies identified.
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Page 5 / 28 2 Overview of the sector
2.1 Sector definition: sector components and importance With an area of 238 thousand km2 and a population of more than 21 million inhabitants, Romania is an important new EU member state in terms of size, although there is a large gap between this country and the old member states as far as the level of economic and social development is concerned. Rural areas play an important part in this respect, both by their size and residential, economic dimensions.
The dairy sector is a significant as part of the national economy because rearing dairy cows is an important and traditional occupation in rural areas, especially in mountain districts; it brings regular incomes, contributes to the stability of the labor force in these areas and makes good use of the pastures and hayfields that cover about 33% of the agricultural land in Romania. Also, the biological importance of milk and its derived products make them strategic items on the agri-food market and in the economy.
2.1.1 Production and value added Agriculture and forestry are important traditional economic branches in Romania, both in terms of the agricultural area (14.7 million ha) and forest area (6.7 million ha), and in terms of the population employed in the sector (32 % of total labor force). Since 2000 the contribution of agriculture and forestry to the GVA in agriculture increased from 8.9 billion leis in 2000 to 24.3 billion lei in 2005 (Table 3 in the Annex). Still in 2005, the contribution of agriculture and forestry to the GVA registered a significant drop from 13.9% to 9.6% especially because of poor harvests of major crops.
During 1998-2006 the Gross Agricultural Output recorded a growth also from 9.8 billion lei in 1998 up to 50.6 billion lei in 2006. (Table 2 in the Annex). The share of animal production in GAO was around 37.2% in 2006.
Gross Agricultural Output (GAO) has been highly variable since 2000, reflecting mainly variations in crop yields affected by extreme weather conditions. Livestock production increased every year since 2001, except in 2005.
2.1.2 Product flows within the sector The figure below provides an overview of the dairy sector, its components and associated milk flows.
It should be noted that a major feature of the current Romanian dairy sector is the low utilization of total milk production by processing enterprises. Farm family consumption, farm feedings of animals, the milk sold directly by producers through street markets and direct sales had a major impact in the sector. The high level of farm usage and direct selling is a consequence of several factors, which include the small-scale structure of production, a consequential lack of commercial orientation amongst many producers, an underdeveloped milk collection system, the big difference between the procurement price and the street market price, and the unreliability of milk payments made by some processors with delays in payment to producers of up to 3 months. A major challenge in the commercial development AgriPolicy
Page 6 / 28 of the dairy sector will be to increase the supplies of good quality raw milk to the processing sector in a cost-effective manner.
Figure 1 Overview of Romanian milk sector and milk flows, 2007 Source: Authors estimation based on the data of National Institute of Statistics, Romania
2.2 Structural features of the dairy supply chain: present situation and trends overtime 2.2.1 Industry structure at primary level
Romania has a very pronounced dual farm structure. Close to 45% of land is farmed by agricultural companies, which account for 0.5% of all farms and have an average size of 275 hectares. However, the vast majority of Romanian farms are subsistence and semi subsistence farms (97.5% of the total), which occupy around half of the utilized agricultural area. Another 2% of farms are commercial family farms, which occupy 4.1% of farm land. According to AgriPolicy
Page 7 / 28 Eurostats 2002 structural survey, close to 3.3 million farms were under 1 European Size Unit (1 ESU = EUR 1 200 of standard gross margin) in Romania. They occupied 3.9 million hectares or a quarter of all agricultural land. There were 1.2 million farms with standard gross margins over one unit, which accounted for 27% of all farms and occupied the remaining three-quarters of agricultural land. Their average size was 8.8 hectares and 94% of those farms were under 8 ESU. Farms over 100 ESU occupied close to 25% of agricultural land. Most farms over 1 ESU (89%) were mixed crop and livestock operations. On average, they had less than 2 cows and 16 sheep. Main occupation farms accounted for 89% of farms over 1 ESU. Seventy per cent of farmers were over 55 and only 5% under 35 1 .
Romanian milk production has traditionally been concentrated in the private sector. The dairy sector has gone through an important structural change in the last years. In 1990, 56% of total milk production came from private family farms. By 2001 the share of family farms had grown to 97%, whilst that of state farms was 2% and other large (privately-owned) farms 1%. Nowadays milk production is very much focussed on small scale, family units. (Annex Table 5).
The privatization process at farm level resulted in a very fragmented farm structure. In 2006 93% of farms have 1-2 cows (Annex Table 5). These farms have 75% of all milking cows. 5,7% of farms have 3-5 cows and 0,59% farms have over 11 cows (until 100). Only 0.01% of all farms (164 in number) have 100 cows or more. These farms have 6,4% of all milking cows from Romania.
According to the data of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development and the General presentation of Romanias agriculture and rural developement 2008 report in 2005 there was encountered a number of 12510 agricultural entities. 85% of these agricultural entities have 0- 49 number of employees, 12% have 50-99 employees, 2% have over 100 employees and only 1% of the mentioned entities have over 250 employees. (Annex Table 6.2)
2.2.2 Industry structure at processing level
At processing level, few information are available. The current industry consists of ex state firms that have been privatised, plus a developing small-scale private sector, which increased since 2000. Simultaneously, many new dairies have been established over the years. Foreign investors and multinational diary companies invested in and took over the Romanian ex state diary companies and transformed them into competitive companies. After Romanias EU integration many milk processing units and diary companies have ceased to exist due to the harsh regulations regarding production standards, foods safety and quality.
In 2007 there were around 876 dairies in total. Most of them are very small in terms of number of employees: 818 enterprises are reported to have less than 50 employees, 19 dairies have more than 50 employees, 23 diaries have less then 249 employees, and just 16 enterprises have over 250 employees. (Annex Table 6.1) However, there is no information about the estimated intakes per year/per day, the quantities these dairies purchase or process.
1 Agricultural Policies in Non-OECD Countries Monitoring and Evaluation 2007, OECD 2007
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Page 8 / 28 An important aspect of Romanian dairy sector is that foreign investment has entered the sector, especially from The Netherlands, France, Germany, Israel and Switzerland. Some of the foreign owned companies belong to the larger dairy processors in Romania. Table 7 presents a list of the largest dairy companies in Romania, the ownership, turnover in 2007, number of employees in 2007 and the estimated intake per day (where available). Most of these companies have several factories and produce in different locations across the country.
Three of the companies presented, Danone, Friesland and Hochland are foreign owned and only two companies (from top 5) are domestic. Still Friesland has shares in Napolact so in this case only one firm, Albalact, is native Romanian company.
The structure of the dairy industry is changing rapidly. The outlook of EU accession calls, among others, for complying with EU quality norms and standards.
2.3 Production, consumption and trade developments Production According to the data of Romanian Statistical Yearbook and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development the total milk production, including cow and buffalo milk, sheep and goat milk together (calves feeding included) has been increasing especially since 2000 (Table 4). In 2000 there was a 5017 million ton of milk production and reached out to 6278 million ton of milk in 2006.
The trends in the production of fresh consumption milk, fresh dairy products, butter and cheese, and are presented in Annex Table 9.
Consumption The levels of milk consumption per capita (expressed in milk equivalents) remained stable between 1998-2001 at an average of 194.7 kg per year. The level of milk consumption increased gradually during 2001 2006 (see Annex Table 12.2).
Unfortunately, the authors could not access a breakdown into separate dairy products, like cheese, butter, skimmed milk powder, or fresh dairy products among Romanian data available (ex. Romanian Statistical Yearbook). The lack of disaggregated consumption data implies that nothing can be said about consumption patterns.
Nevertheless, data was found and gathered from OECD statistics. Table 12.1 in the Annex shows the level of consumption (in thousand ton) of drinking milk, butter and cheese between 1998 and 2006.
Trade developments In the National Statistic Institute and Ministry of Agriculture there are surprisingly just a few information referring to the trade details. Figures were only available for the totals on exports and imports. The authors found data about the export and import of food and live animals, and the export and import of dairy products and birds eggs. Table 10.1 in the Annex shows that the share of diary products in total export is around 0,06 %, and the share of diary products in total imports is around 0.15%. In 2007 the main exported dairy products were milk and sour cream meanwhile the main imported dairy product was cheese (Annex Table 10.2)
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Page 9 / 28 The figures from Annex Table 11 show that the European Union is the main partner of Romania in agricultural trade. In 2007 the export of agro-food products to EU weighted 70% of total exports while imports from EU member states weighted 72,4% of total imports.
Moreover, there are quite substantial levels of imports on the fresh dairy products since 1998 (from 10 to 15%). Some sources indicate that the rise in these imports is linked to FDI as companies like Danone or Hochland producing in Romania - are also importing part of their fresh product range. Further, imports on milk powder are substantial as a share of production, and the same holds for cheese. At the same time, exports of milk powder and cheese have been growing in recent years. Yet, the level of import and export penetration is still rather modest.
2.4 Government policy 2.4.1 Regulatory framework of the dairy sector
One of the main long-term objectives of the Government is to modernize and raise the efficiency of the existing farms according to EU standards. Policy programs also include the establishment of rural credit cooperatives to help finance to the transformation process of the traditional farms into family farms. Another objective is to increase the number of farms and agri-food units eligible for SAPARD funds. Price support, input subsidies and area based direct payments to agricultural households with less than 5 hectares form part of the policy measures. Rural area development and land consolidation could be aided by a pension supplement for those above retirement age, who agree to release their land to allow an accelerated restructuring of the sector. The development of infrastructure, training programs, development of human resources, improving the access to markets and competitiveness of products are other key elements in rural area development. An important aim is also encouraging the internal investments in small and medium sized processing firms situated in rural areas.
The major measure that the Government has applied to the dairy sector in recent years has been a premium on milk delivered to processors. The Governments objective with this measure is to increase the quantity of milk delivered for processing. As a side effect, the Government expects the development of the productions quality. However, the way this measure would encourage higher milk quality is not explicitly explained in the Governments draft law. To argument may be that in order to get milk accepted by processors a farmer has to make additional efforts for which the premium has to compensate. The bonus is available on the condition that producers hold 15 milk animals or more, or that they belong to an association meeting this criterion. However, some moderation should be made to this condition in order to enable mixed farms with fewer cows to be eligible.
Other relevant government competition policies refers to the following: 1.) Improving the quality and hygiene of milk and milk processing industry to reach the EU quality standards - by giving financial support to agricultural producers in the zoo- technical industry, to farmers, producers who: own, breed animals individually or in association; delivers cow milk from farms to milk collection centers and dairy processing centers; own private milk collection centers or milk processing units. AgriPolicy
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2.) SAPPARD programs. The SAPARD (Special Accession Program for Agriculture and Rural Development) is a EU program, which provides financial and technical assistance for agriculture and rural development in candidate countries as they prepare for EU accession. SAPARD funds investment projects:
Priorities for SAPARD assistance include: Implementing veterinary, phytosanitary and marketing requirements. Upgrading food processing standards. Restructuring the agri-food sector to improve competitiveness. Implementing coherent structural and rural development policies.
SAPARD eligible measures include: Investments in agricultural holdings. Improving processing and marketing, structures for quality, veterinary and plant- health controls. Agricultural production methods protecting environment and maintaining the countryside, economic diversification. Setting-up farm relief and farm management services, producer groups. Renovation and development of villages. Land improvement and reparcelling, creating and updating land registers. Improving vocational training, developing and improving rural infrastructure, water resource management, forestry measures and technical assistance.
2.4.2 Other dairy sector relevant policy areas e.g. environment policies, competition policy etc.
Romanian farmers seized the opportunity offered by organic farming and embark into these farming methods. In compliance with the European Action Plan for Ecological Agriculture, the National Strategic Plan takes into account the development of organic farming. Organic farming is an important instrument in nature conservation and revival of rural areas. These aspects have a great importance for Romania, where it was identified the need to maintain the natural value of farmland and the need of an equilibrated rural development. Organic farming could lead to environmental, economic and social benefits for these areas. 2
The agricultural area cultivated with organic crops has increased 5 times between 2000 and 2004, respectively from 17,348 ha to 75,500 ha. Of the total area cultivated with organic crops in 2004, the largest share, 27,000 ha, represents natural grasslands and feedstuff crops. A rapid upwards trend could be noticed for cereals crops (27.95 in 2004) as well as for oilseed and protein plants (27.2% in 2004). For 2005, the areas cultivated with organic crops were estimated at 110,000 ha, representing 0.75% out of the country of agricultural area. Organic farming methods are gradually adopted by livestock farming. The development of organic farming in Romania is favored by the existence of traditional agricultural systems, extensive in their majority, and the fact that the average use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides is lower than in EU (25) 3 .
2 National Strategy Plan 2007-2013 3 idem AgriPolicy
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3 Performance of the dairy supply chain 3.1 Performance at farm level
3.1.1 Yields
The general picture for the Romanian dairy sector is that yields are increasing but slowly. Total production has not moved up much as the cowherd decreased slightly over the years thanks to the assistance programmes given by the government. Still on a dairy company level, it is hard to identify any impact on intake per farmer. The number of farmers receiving assistance is pretty low.
Table 13 and 15 in the Annex show that there were 2.8 million holdings in the EU-27 with dairy cows in 2005. However, 1.9 million holdings only had between one and two cows, Romania and Poland accounting for 1.6 million of these small dairy units.
Among those Member States for which data are available, the number of farms with dairy cows declined sharply between 1995 and 2005; in Italy, the number of holdings with dairy cows halved and in Spain the number fell by almost two thirds. Although the number of cows (of which organic dairy cows comprise a very small proportion) also declined in the same period, the average number of cows per holding increased, sometimes sharply. In contrast to the small herd sizes in Romania and Poland, the average size of a dairy herd in the United Kingdom was just under 80 head in 2005, had risen to 85 head in Denmark, and was just over 100 head, on average, in Cyprus.
Average milk yields across the EU-27 in 2005 were about 6 000 liters per cow, although the range extended from 8 200 liters per cow in Sweden and Denmark down to 3 700 liters per cow in Bulgaria and 3 000 liters per cow in Romania.
With respect to the poor genetic potential of a part of the dairy herd, the policy towards Artificial Insemination may have had an important influence. With the privatisation of the Artificial Insemination Services in 1997, the farmers were charged for this service, which they had received free of charge until 1997. Since then, farmers have been tempted more to use local bulls of low quality, through which the genetic quality of cattle has been gradually degraded. This has been reinforced by the fact that in some regions the quality of the semen, as well as the level of professionalism of the servers, has been low. Consequently, some farmers have lost confidence in the AI service. In places, the bulls (of lower quality) are just left to graze within the herd and the consequence is a further degradation of genetic potential.
3.1.2 Prices
Table 16 in the Annex presents the average purchasing price, paid to farmers, for cow milk in Romania between 2000 and 2007. Prices incresed from 0.28 Ron per litre of milk in 2000 up to 0.75 Ron per liter of milk in 2007.
Nowadays we are still facing the fact that farm gate prices are still low and small farmers especially, preferred to sell their milk directly to consumers because the prices are significantly higher and they are paid on the spot, with none of the delays which frequently AgriPolicy
Page 12 / 28 occur when delivering to processors. Farmers are in a weak negotiating position relative to the processors because there are too many producers and their associations are not effective enough; furthermore, most of the collection centers are owned by the processors.
Milk producers receive a payment per liter of milk sold to economic operators specialized in milk processing and having an appropriate producing license, without an upper limit on the quantity of milk receiving payment. Payments per liter of cow and buffalo cow milk increased in 2002, compared to 2001, and remained stable in national currency until 2005, despite high inflation. They increased by 10.7% in national currency (17% in EUR) in September 2005. In September 2006, the Government announced that the payment rate for milk which reaches EU standards will double.
Figure 2 - Evolution of payment rates in Romania, 2001-06 Source: Gavrilescu (2006); AgraFood East Europe; Agricultural Policies in Non-OECD Countries, Monitoring and Evaluation 2007, OECD 2007
In January 2006, the government decided that milk payments would no longer be paid per liter of milk but per head of dairy animal, with a supplementary aid for registered organic farms or for pedigree animals.
The enlargement of the European Union from 15 to 25 Member States in 2004 resulted in a significantly larger volume of cows milk collected and of milk products obtained. The further enlargement to 27 Member States in 2007 produced a much smaller increase. Nevertheless, the 15 Member States which made up the EU between 1995 and 2004 still account for more than 80% of the cows milk collected and products obtained from cows milk. 4
4 EUROSTAT Agricultural Statistics. Main Results 2006-2007 AgriPolicy
Page 13 / 28 Table 17 in the Annex provides a comparison of milk producer prices in EU states and those in Romania over the years 1999-2007. The Romanian peasant market price also relates to milk that is probably far below the EU quality standards that have to be achieved by farmers in the Member States to obtain the EU farm gate prices. It seems unlikely that without significant price support Romanian dairies could offer procurement prices that match those obtainable on the Romanian peasant markets.
Milk prices received by farmers for processing milk in Romania is typically less than half that which prevails in EU countries. This suggests that at the farm gate level Romanian milk is price competitive with that in the EU, but the question of international competitiveness depends on the prices of products which are readily tradeable, i.e once the milk has been collected and is in a form suitable for international transfer. It should also be noted that the quality of Romanian milk is probably below that in the EU.
The quantity of milk produced in the EU-27 is controlled by a system of production quotas. The milk quota for the EU-25 was set at 138 million in 2006 to which a further total of 4 million ton of quota were added for Romania and Bulgaria in 2007. Most dairy farmers sell their milk to dairy processors and it then enters the food chain. Other dairy farmers market their milk directly to consumers and on some dairy farms milk is consumed on the farm. Of the 148.1 million ton of milk produced across the EU-27 in 2006, the vast majority (89.5 %) some 132.5 million ton of milk was collected. In some of the newer Member States (particularly those in Eastern Europe) a significant proportion of milk production is consumed on the farm; only about one fifth (21.4 %) of milk produced in Romania was collected. Over two thirds (70.4 %) of the milk collected in the EU-27 came from Germany, France, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Italy and Poland. 5
3.1.3 Gross margins
The question of whether an enterprise is capable of producing a positive margin is an important element of competitiveness.
3.2 Performance at industry level
3.2.1 Turnover and employment in the dairy industry
Romania has received some investors in the dairy sector since 1998 when Danone came in. Since then, several foreign companies have followed, such as Friesland (former Nutricia group, Netherlands), Hochland (Germany), and Dorna Lactate (Switzerland). These investments show that foreign companies see good prospects in the Romanian dairy market in the longer term. There are several important impacts on the Romanian dairy sector that can already be identified as arising from these foreign investments. One clearly observes that the competition in the market has increased. More firms with better products are entering the market and competing with the existing established businesses. Increased competition from internationally operating companies has encouraged several developments. More competition has fuelled a growing tendency of specialization in the sector.
5 EUROSTAT, Food: from farm to fork, Pocketbooks statistics, 2008 Edition
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Annex Table 7 shows the list of large diaries companies. We can observe that the foreign investors in the Romanian sector are among the first. The first four in the list are foreign investors. Danone continues to be the most important player in the market with a 102 million euro turnover and 685 employees. Danone is followed by Friesland Romania member of the international Friesland Foods Dutch company. In 2007 Friesland Romania had a 75 million euro turnover and had 771 employees. The fifth large diary company is Albalact a domestic company. With 564 employees in 2007 the company achieved a turnover of 42 million euros.
Farm employment in Romania is characterised by a high proportion of older people. The older members of the farm population are likely to have lower educational qualifications, a lower level of commercial orientation (self consumption may be more important than sales) and less motivation for farm business improvements.
Regarding the education levels of farmers we can say that many of them have just primary level education, just a few have higher or university education. An inevitable consequence of this low level of education is that farmers are less well equipped to compete in labour markets and to gain non-agricultural employment. This impedes the structural adjustment of the agricultural sector and milk production (the move towards fewer farmers and workers operating on larger units). The low levels of education also suggest a low level of knowledge and skills, which are required for raising milk production and its quality, and for the better management of farm enterprises.
3.2.2 Value added and profits
Until privatization started, every dairy unit produced the whole range of dairy products, in order to utilize all the milk delivered and to serve the local community with a full range of products. Pressure from competitors has forced processors to use scarce resources on as large a scale as possible, and to concentrate on processing fewer products is one way of achieving this. The increased competition has already had, and will continue to have an impact on the numbers of small-scale producers and these will reduce. Furthermore, the foreign investment has resulted in an increasing number of products being available to the consumer. Moreover, as these companies want to accept only milk of good quality, they will initiate further efforts to implement strict quality standards right along the dairy chain.
Looking at changes in performance with valuations expressed in current prices, the larger companies have expanded their capital base, as their stock value more than doubled in 1999 against the previous years value. The larger companies show an increase in turnover over the period, both in total and per employee. At the same time, gross value added has risen, as well as operational incomes (total sales minus variable costs). Importantly, the investments made have risen, which indicates positive business expectations.
Still, Results per dairy may differ substantially, and depend, amongst others things, on their scale and efficiency of resource use their product quality and range, and on management and marketing skills
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Page 15 / 28 3.2.3 Market share developments
As we mentioned earlier Romania has received major foreign investors especially from Europe. Because of these foreign investments the competition on the Romanian dairy market increased considerably. More and more products are entering the market and are competing with the existing ones.
The Romanian dairy market has also domestic companies. Former state-owned processing companies made a successful transition to being a competitive private enterprises. Investments has been made in the milk collection system and good quality milk is rewarded within the pricing system. Effort has also been put into the development of quality systems within the factory and international markets have been developed. Further improvements in the milk supply are also being planned.
3.2.4 Competitiveness at retail level
Annex Table 18 presents an example of retail prices of dairy products observed in a major supermarket in Northern Romania, September 2008.
One broad observation is that the products of foreign manufacturers, whether imported or produced in Romania, have a high price. An element of these high prices is due to the inherent quality of the products, but part of the price premium is due to the perceived value imparted to the products by their well-regarded brands.
A second observation is that there is a difference in the prices of similar products produced by different Romanian producers. It would appear that some Romanian producers are seeking to compete at the quality end of the market, but cannot achieve the prices of foreign competitors, whilst others are seeking to be very price competitive. This pattern can also be observed in other outlets.
In conclusion the competitiveness of the Romanian diary industry is clearly handicapped by: relatively low levels of skills and education amongst the farm workforce a very small scale of production which is very labour intensive and makes relatively limited use of capital low average yields which in many instances are below the genetic potential of the cows concerned because of deficiencies in feeding and husbandry (the need to increase the genetic quality of the herd is not denied, but the issue is complicated by the need for improved husbandry and feeding with higher yielding cows) inadequate attention to milk quality at the farm level, in milk collection and pricing, and in the regulatory arrangements for street markets a milk collection system that is very fragmented, has a shortage of cooling facilities in many areas and is dealing with small quantities at many points as milk flows from farm to processor.
In addition, it has been observed that milk prices for Romanian producers are approximately half those of EU producers, gross margins for milk production are very low relative to EU states, but the nature of production is very different and the milk collection system is capable of improvement at modest cost to producers if appropriately organized.
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Page 16 / 28 As far as the milk processing sector is concerned: the industry is generally very fragmented in recent years dairy processors appear to have raised their labour productivity and broadly maintained their performance levels the influence of foreign investment and competition has provided a stimulus for product development and the raising of milk quality much improvement is still required in raising standards and performance levels
4 SWOT 4.1 Strengths and weaknesses
Usually the SWOT analysis gives the possibility to define and identify the strengths and weaknesses, opportunities and threats and also the direction of the sectors future development.
As shown by the results of different surveys, the main issues in Romanian agriculture are: a very large sector of subsistence and semi/subsistence agriculture (made up of small individual holdings5), poorly equipped, with a relatively low yield, making an incomplete use of the owners, work and using most of the production of their own consumption. This situation is counterweighted by the large commercial holdings, made up of concessional or rented plots (covering more than half of the area), which are relatively well equipped, with high yields, but which still do not use the land to its true potential.
The Romanian dairy sector faces several negative effects from the general macroeconomic environment in Romania. Consumer incomes are still relative low, which gives relatively low consumer spending power and that is why consumers have low product expectations. Another negative effect or weakness is the low quality of milk collected and the reduced productivity at farm level. Low labor costs gives Romania a favorable point.
STAGE STRENGHTS WEAKNESSES Market/macro environment Larg land resources with high agricultural potential Low level of consumer incomes gives low level of consumer spending power High interest rates Lack of information on industry structure
Farm level Low labor costs Small scale structure of milk production Low milk production Low milk yields Poorly organized system of milk collection Lack of quality and hygiene orientation Lack of farm investments AgriPolicy
Page 17 / 28 Inadequate payments, unstable payment arrangements (delays) Lack of market orientation High costs in small- and medium size farms Incapacity of small- and medium sized farms to invest for modernization Low genetic potential of cows High level of self-consumption and peasant market sales
Processing Low milk production costs Low productivity and profitability Foreign investments lead to the modernization of the sector High costs of milk collection Implementing new and modern technologies of milk processing Low levels of product development Low and poor financial support for production and export
Street markets Provides availability of low prices for low income consumers Low hygienic quality of products Provides security of payments for small scale producers (farmers) Poor handling procedures
Wholesaling and supermarkets The number of participants is increasing Difficult to achieve any economies of scale Ensuring expansion of milk and dairy products supply High prices for mediocre quality Good range of products Generally good standards of service
Higher levels of efficiency
4.2 Opportunities and Threats
The SWOT analysis also indicates the scope for adjustment, which will strengthen the sectors competitive position on both domestic and foreign markets. At the farm level, opportunities to improve efficiency and quality are mainly to be sought in better feeding and hygienic practices. Investments, either from own resources or through investment assistance, in animals, their housing and feed storage will affect production and productivity positively. A major threat to the sector is that it fails to meet the growing quality requirements and standards all along the dairy chain.
STAGE OPPORTUNITIES THREATS Farm level Improving the quality of milk Lack of alternative AgriPolicy
Page 18 / 28 by providing advice and training on hygienic conditions and procedures employment opportunities in rural areas Investments in animals with high genetic potential Failure to meet Aquis requirements related to quality, hygiene, animal welfare Training courses and advices on cow nutrition, improving the cows feed diet efficiency Incapacity to meet the growing needs and standards both on European and international level Improve the payment possibilities regular payments High competitiveness on the international markets Investing in buildings and equipment
Processing Raising the quality and quantity of milk by investing in equipments and modern technology used in the milk collection systems Failure to meet Aquis requirements Improving the payment systems Incapacity to meet the EU standards and miss the harmonization process Increasing the product improvement by knowing the market and consumer demands and consumer spending power Changes in consumer preferences focused on organic farming and organic products Improving the efficiency of the milk sector by restructuring the sector Poor business environment through inappropriate policy development and implementation Further foreign investments Continued weakness of Romanian economy Harmonization with EU standards
Making efforts to cope with environmental requirements
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5 Suggestions for policy recommendations
Development measures for increasing competitiveness of the Romanian dairy sector need to take in consideration the trends on the international dairy market and international trade policy in order to contribute to its efficacy and profitability.
The Romanian dairy sector is characterized by low competitiveness and this can be attributed to: low production output, low average milk production per cow as a result of unfavourable cattle breed, type of breeding and nutrition but also due to an unfavourable family farm ownership structure.
In this way there is a need to make changes both in the production and market structure of the Romanian dairy sector in order to overcome low price competitiveness, and lack of quality and marketing competitiveness.
Government policies in a number of fields such as quality standards, milk production, development of dairy industry, could help to complement and increase the effectiveness of the companies farm assistance programmes and at the same time address the issue of competitiveness of the sector. Some recommendations for policy change and government involvement are as follows:
Suggestions for improving the milk production process: increasing the investments in cattle breeding in order to increase de milk production; improving the genetic potential of farms; sustaining the milk production sector, to assure a quantitative and qualitative improvement, in order to align it to the standards of the European Union; subvention for the milk production to balance the price at the collection sites, on the same criteria as in the European Union;
Suggestion for improving the milk processing industry: modernization of the existing milk processing units; setting up collection, cooling and storing units; increasing de added value of the sub-products resulting from the processing activity; improving the monitoring and control systems of the supply chain; setting up new laboratories and modernizing the existing ones; diversification of the milk products; improvement the professional training of the personnel involved in the milk production, processing and marketing of milk products.
Programs to sustain the milk products sustaining and protecting the domestic products using the EU specific mechanisms; balancing the production and the processing activities; financial support to balance the price at the collection sites in Romania with those in the EU.
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Annex to the Dairy Sector Analysis
Table 1. Gross domestic product by category of resources 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007* GDP - TOTAL 116.768,7 151.475,0 197.564,8 246.468,8 288.047,8 344.535,5 266.590,6 Agriculture, hunting and sylviculture 15.612,9 17.301,2 22.835,2 31.030,1 24.277,9 26.898,2 17.806,8 % of GDP 13,4 11,4 11,6 12,6 8,4 7,8 6,68 Source: Romanian Statistical Yearbook 2007, * Estimates
Table 2. Share of milk production in total Gross Agricultural Output (GAO), 10 most recent years
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Total GAO (Thou lei current prices) 9768964 12716501 16071284 27842836 31584856 40411820 55314136 46539540 50649602 Share of animal production in GAO (%) 43.90 34.50 37.10 36.10 41.60 34.90 30.40 39.10 37.20 Share of milk production in GAO (%) 17.3 16.0 Source: Romanian Statistical Yearbook 2003-2007
Table 3. Share of Gross value Added (GVA) of the dairy industry in total food and beverage industry GVA, ten most recent years 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Total GVA in agriculture (lei million current prices) 5375,3 7277,6 8898,4 15612,9 17301,2 22835,2 31030,1 24277,0 Total GVA in food and beverages industry (lei million current prices) 22.384 30.380,8 5425,5 8640,2 9882,8 12.128,4 14.818,1 17.166,7 Dairy production GVA (euro or national currency)
Share of GVA of the dairy industry in total food and beverage industry GVA - (%)
Source: Romanian Statistical Yearbook, 2007
Table 4. Milk production production flows within the chain
Table 5. Size structure of the livestock farms at 31.12.2006 FARMS COWS Specification No. of farms % of total Cum. % No. of head % of total Cum. % Average head / farm TOTAL 1.100.000 100.00 1.700.000 100.00 1.55 1-2 heads 1.023.000 93.00 93.00 1.286.900 75.70 75.70 1.26 3-5 heads 62.700 5.70 98.70 210.800 12.40 88.10 3.36 6-10 heads 7.700 0.70 99.40 59.500 3.50 91.60 7.73 11-100 heads 6.436 0.59 99.99 108.800 6.40 93.72 16.91 >100 heads 164 0.01 100 34.000 2.00 100 207.31 Source: MADR
Table 6.1 Size distribution of dairy industry, in number of employees in 2007 Size band, in numbers of employees Number of Enterprises 0-49 818 50-99 19 100-249 23 Over 250 16 TOTAL 876 Source: MADR, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, General presentation of Romanias agriculture and rural developement (2008)
Table 6.2 Size distribution of agricultural entities, in number of employees Size band, in numbers of employees Number of Enterprises 2005 2006 0-49 10623 11467 50-99 1594 1606 100-249 252 233 Over 250 41 41 AgriPolicy
Page 22 / 28 TOTAL 12510 13347 Source: MADR, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, General presentation of Romanias agriculture and rural developement (2008)
Table 7. List of large dairies companies (top 5), with their milk intake or processing capacity) Estimated intake per day Name of the company Ownership Turnover 2007 Number of employees 2007 in litres As % of total intake Danone Romania Private/ Subsidiary 102 million euro 685 Friesland Romania Private/ Subsidiary 75 million euro 771 170 mil litres/year
Napolact Private 53 million euro 466 45 mil litres/year
Hochland Private/ Subsidiary 47 million euro 416 Albalact Private 42 million euro 564 200.000 litres/day
Source: Ministry of Public Finance (www.mfinante.ro) APRIL - Asociatia Patronala Romana din Industria Laptelui (www.april.org.ro) (The Romanian Milk Producers Entrepreneurship Union)
Table 8. Supply/demand balance sheet on dairy products (in 000 ton equivalent of 3.5% fat milk) (ten most recent years) 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Production (th litres) 43763 42292 41719 43233 44980 47063 49012 48572 51586 Imports (euro million)
29 33 31 31 32 42
Exports (euro millions)
8 10 9 10 14 17
Stock variation
Supply available
Human consumption
Av. Cons. Per capita 194,40 194,00 193,00 197,40 215,00 225,00 238,90 239,20 246,60 Self- sufficiency rate (%)
Table 9. Trends in dairy production (ten most recent years) 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Fresh consumption milk (thou hl) 1864 1750
Table 10.1. Export and import of dairy products by sections to Standard International Trade Classification Exports (FOB) by sections euro millions 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Total exports (FOB) 11273 12722 14675 15614 18935 22255 Food and live animals 268 358 359 344 404 489 Dairy products and birds eggs 8 10 9 10 14 17 Share of dairy products in total exports % 0,07 0,07 0,06 0,06 0,07 0,07 Source: Romanian Statistical Yearbook 2006
Imports (CIF) by sections euro millions 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Total imports (CIF) 14235 17383 18881 21201 26281 32568 Food and live animals 774 1060 905 1204 1297 1528 Dairy products and birds eggs 29 33 31 31 32 42 Share of dairy products in total imports % 0,20 0,19 0,16 0,14 0,12 0,12 Source: Romanian Statistical Yearbook 2006
Table 10.2 Export and import of main dairy products in 2007
EXPORT Quantity (th ton) Value (Euro million) Share in total % Dairy products 2006 2007 2006 2007 2006 2007 Total 854.00 1100.70 100 100 Milk and sour 0.90 9.60 1.00 12.90 0.10 1.20
EXPORT Quantity (th ton) Value (Euro million) Share in total % Dairy products 2006 2007 2006 2007 2006 2007 Total 2424.80 3255.10 100 100 Cheese 5.10 18.50 15.40 56.50 0.60 1.70
Source: MADR, General presentation of Romanias agriculture and rural developement (2008)
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Page 24 / 28 Table 11. Foreign trade totals, main destination of exports and main origin of imports, by main countries/regions between 1999-2005 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Export total (euro million) 7977 11273 12722 14675 15614 18935 22255 Europe 6704 9566 10825 12098 13353 16605 18935 Italy 1858 2518 3172 3670 3774 4014 4270 Germany 1413 1765 1988 2293 2458 2832 3123 France 498 790 1025 1121 1145 1609 1656 Turkey 442 682 503 611 798 1324 1762 UK and Northern Ireland 388 592 654 849 1046 1259 1213
Table 14. Developments in milk yields per cow p.a. Romania and EU in a few selected years
1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2006 Romania litres per cow (cow and buffalo milk) 3018 2990 3133 3510 3600 EU 15 litres per cow 5442 5800 Romania as percentage of EU average 55% 52% Source: EUROSTAT
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Page 26 / 28 Table 15. Table Cows milk collected and products obtained in 2006 in EU member states
Table 18. Retail prices of dairy products in a supermarket in Northern Romania, in September 2008 Milk Sour cream Butter Yoghurt Cheese Measurement units Litre 3,5% fat 500 gr 12% fat 200 gr, 65% fat 125 gr. kg Foreign brands (imported or Romanian produced) - Ron 3,86 3,93 4,29 0,82 25,99 Products of Romanian private dairy company (one of top 5 or recognized brands) - Ron 3,61 4,47 4,19 0,89 27,62 Products of Romanian private company (new or not famous brand) - Ron 3,14 4,89 2,46 0,97 13,15 Source: Personal observation
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Page 28 / 28 References 1) Agricultural Policies in Non-OECD Countries Monitoring and Evaluation 2007, OECD 2007
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The State of Agricultural Commodity Markets 2020: Agricultural Markets and Sustainable Development: Global Value Chains, Smallholder Farmers and Digital Innovations
The Role of Small and Medium Agrifood Enterprises in Food Systems Transformation: The Case of Rice Processors in Senegal: FAO Agricultural Development Economics Technical Study 10