Name: Zelalem Benayew

I.D: BDU0500247PK

Assignment 1

Solve example 2 using Monte Carlo Simulation ( Run 100 simulations or more ) by developin
(a) use PERT to determine the probabilities that this project will be completed in 20,2
(b) What is the probability that this project will be completed in 20, 23 and 27 weeks?
100 or more simulation run. Draw a chart with project duration
(c) Determine the criticality index of each activity by running 10 simulations.
(d ) Use RiskAmp software to calculate the prob. for part (a).
(e) Compare the results of part(a) obtained form RiskAmp and the excel sheet you d
You should submit your results electronically (hard copy submission not allowed)
Submission date: July 24, 2014

ons or more ) by developing your own EXCEL sheet.

t will be completed in 20,23 and 27weeks.
ed in 20, 23 and 27 weeks? Using Ms excel,

ng 10 simulations.

and the excel sheet you developed. Why are the results different?
on not allowed)

Name: Zelalem Benayew

I.D: BDU0500247PK

Solution for Assignment-1, using PERT

Activity duration Estimates
Activity
A
B
C
D
E
F
G

a
2
1
7
4
6
2
4

Duration
m
b
5
8
3
5
8
9
7
10
7
8
4
6
5
6

0
0

Start
Dummy
Activity

A
5

0
B
3
3
3days float time

Mean
5
3
8
7
7
4
5

5
5

3
6

Standard
Deviation
1
0.67
0.33
1
0.33
0.67
0.33

5
5

C
8

13
13

5
D
12
6
7
13
1day float time

0
E
7
10
7
17
10days float time

Sum of the means for the critical activities is: 5 + 8 + 4 + 5 = 22 weeks,

Sum of the variances: (1.oo)^2 + (o.33)^2 + (0.67)^2 + (0.33)^2 = 1.67
And the standard deviation is: = (1.67)^0.5 = 1.3 weeks
a) The probability of completing the project with in 20 weeks is:
Z = (20-22)/1.3 = -1.54

13
13

f(Z) = 0.0618
-------------------------------------- from the s
= 0.0618*100
6% Thus there is a probability of 6% to complet the p

b) The probability of completing the project with in 23 weeks is:

Z = (23-22)/1.3 = 0.77
f(Z) = 0.7794
-------------------------------------- from the s
= 0.7794*100
78% Thus there is a probability of 78% to complet the

c) The probability of completing the project with in 27 weeks is:

Z = (27-22)/1.3 = 3.85
f(Z) > 0.9998
---------------------------------------Since Z=3.
= 0.9998*100
standard norma
100%
which means th
Thus there is a

Zelalem Benayew
U0500247PK

Critical Path= A-C-F-G

F
4

17
17

17
17

G
5

22
22

Finish
Dummy
Activity

------------ from the standard normal curve.

6% to complet the project with in 20 weeks.

------------ from the standard normal curve.

78% to complet the project with in 23 weeks.

-------------Since Z=3.85 is > Z= 3.49 (which is the maximum limit given in the
standard normal curve) implies for Z=3.85, f(Z) is greater than 0.9998
which means the probability value is equal to 100%.
Thus there is a probability of 100% to complet the project with in 27 weeks.

Name: Zelalem Benayew

I.D: BDU0500247PK

Solution for Assignment-1, using Ms excel

Solution for Assignment-1, using Ms excel

Activity

alpa

beta

A
B
C
D
E
F
G

2
1
7
4
6
2
4

5
3
8
7
7
4
5

8
5
9
10
8
6
6

4
4
4
4
4
4
4

4
4
4
4
4
4
4

Zelalem Benayew
DU0500247PK

Name: Zelalem B
I.D: BDU0500247

Solution for Assignment-1, using Ms excel (100 Simulations)

Activity-A

Activity-B

Activity-C

alpha

beta

[A]

[B]

alpha

beta

[A]

[B]

alpha

Run Number RAND()

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34

0.595
0.536
0.057
0.490
0.077
0.702
0.595
0.131
0.524
0.280
0.252
0.299
0.330
0.100
0.899
0.496
0.022
0.852
0.619
0.881
0.327
0.086
0.582
0.782
0.771
0.968
0.698
0.231
0.648
0.879
0.802
0.012
0.639
0.906

A-generated

5.262
5.099
3.410
4.972
3.542
5.576
5.263
3.821
5.065
4.369
4.281
4.428
4.521
3.672
6.323
4.990
3.063
6.102
5.330
6.235
4.512
3.593
5.227
5.837
5.796
6.811
5.563
4.208
5.413
6.222
5.906
2.901
5.389
6.360

Run Number RAND()

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34

0.745
0.337
0.191
0.322
0.254
0.315
0.850
0.636
0.538
0.597
0.881
0.773
0.927
0.427
0.087
0.823
0.188
0.377
0.435
0.978
0.926
0.666
0.478
0.649
0.130
0.882
0.626
0.877
0.675
0.437
0.580
0.784
0.701
0.886

B-generated

Run Number

3.474
2.696
2.378
2.666
2.523
2.652
3.730
3.253
3.069
3.179
3.822
3.536
3.991
2.866
2.066
3.657
2.370
2.773
2.880
4.293
3.987
3.311
2.960
3.278
2.213
3.827
3.233
3.808
3.330
2.884
3.147
3.560
3.381
3.840

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34

35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78

0.851
0.911
0.394
0.987
0.432
0.662
0.152
0.783
0.492
0.050
0.022
0.972
0.557
0.994
0.635
0.024
0.042
0.390
0.547
0.116
0.912
0.638
0.379
0.414
0.437
0.092
0.624
0.690
0.860
0.704
0.652
0.169
0.003
0.229
0.443
0.654
0.975
0.523
0.640
0.752
0.632
0.138
0.748
0.350

6.097
6.389
4.705
7.078
4.813
5.455
3.914
5.840
4.977
3.349
3.059
6.856
5.158
7.245
5.376
3.095
3.280
4.696
5.130
3.754
6.395
5.384
4.663
4.764
4.827
3.630
5.346
5.538
6.135
5.580
5.425
3.984
2.626
4.204
4.844
5.432
6.890
5.064
5.391
5.734
5.368
3.855
5.721
4.580

35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78

0.077
0.135
0.698
0.411
0.198
0.190
0.058
0.244
0.380
0.543
0.973
0.691
0.896
0.207
0.629
0.336
0.984
0.957
0.642
0.501
0.439
0.230
0.105
0.534
0.050
0.548
0.514
0.988
0.050
0.724
0.626
0.919
0.128
0.281
0.094
0.090
0.872
0.749
0.296
0.475
0.418
0.045
0.183
0.816

2.028
2.228
3.376
2.835
2.396
2.377
1.943
2.501
2.779
3.079
4.248
3.361
3.872
2.417
3.240
2.694
4.347
4.137
3.264
3.002
2.888
2.470
2.131
3.062
1.904
3.088
3.026
4.406
1.899
3.429
3.234
3.955
2.207
2.582
2.094
2.078
3.794
3.482
2.613
2.955
2.849
1.876
2.358
3.640

35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78

79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100

0.799
0.850
0.046
0.716
0.817
0.586
0.977
0.021
0.927
0.032
0.410
0.798
0.266
0.903
0.357
0.063
0.918
0.691
0.672
0.204
0.730
0.654

5.895
6.096
3.319
5.618
5.962
5.237
6.928
3.054
6.484
3.186
4.750
5.894
4.326
6.345
4.602
3.450
6.428
5.541
5.483
4.115
5.662
5.433

79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100

0.525
0.204
0.730
0.439
0.459
0.690
0.343
0.520
0.963
0.188
0.746
0.658
0.583
0.653
0.174
0.048
0.495
0.443
0.893
0.347
0.397
0.114

3.046
2.409
3.442
2.888
2.925
3.359
2.706
3.036
4.178
2.371
3.475
3.296
3.153
3.286
2.334
1.892
2.991
2.896
3.862
2.714
2.810
2.161

79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100

Name: Zelalem Benayew

.D: BDU0500247PK
Activity-C

Activity-D

Activity-E

beta

[A]

[B]

alpha

beta

[A]

[B]

alpha

beta

10

RAND()

C-generated

0.534
0.358
0.468
0.181
0.498
0.777
0.129
0.361
0.274
0.181
0.555
0.977
0.734
0.113
0.213
0.037
0.896
0.976
0.779
0.683
0.419
0.924
0.497
0.423
0.562
0.945
0.082
0.995
0.856
0.147
0.178
0.091
0.647
0.938

8.031
7.868
7.971
7.676
7.998
8.273
7.604
7.871
7.784
7.676
8.051
8.643
8.225
7.579
7.716
7.413
8.436
8.636
8.275
8.173
7.926
8.489
7.998
7.929
8.057
8.537
7.523
8.771
8.373
7.631
7.672
7.541
8.137
8.520

Run Number RAND()

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34

0.444
0.358
0.203
0.080
0.004
0.535
0.560
0.235
0.995
0.052
0.980
0.928
0.467
0.807
0.960
0.424
0.052
0.829
0.946
0.742
0.135
0.514
0.612
0.396
0.494
0.747
0.976
0.715
0.073
0.972
0.224
0.725
0.148
0.104

D-generated

6.845
6.603
6.112
5.561
4.653
7.096
7.164
6.222
9.312
5.364
8.959
8.488
6.910
7.927
8.737
6.790
5.364
8.010
8.618
7.702
5.840
7.038
7.310
6.711
6.983
7.718
8.911
7.615
5.517
8.854
6.187
7.648
5.897
5.693

Run Number RAND()

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34

0.386
0.517
0.230
0.372
0.855
0.762
0.432
0.230
0.301
0.802
0.655
0.065
0.898
0.978
0.040
0.231
0.807
0.171
0.211
0.728
0.999
0.801
0.296
0.969
0.870
0.098
0.789
0.295
0.449
0.955
0.841
0.476
0.225
0.711

0.031
0.834
0.527
0.708
0.341
0.438
0.083
0.893
0.631
0.083
0.697
0.058
0.566
0.094
0.969
0.842
0.569
0.973
0.798
0.587
0.843
0.804
0.924
0.681
0.960
0.546
0.314
0.448
0.345
0.936
0.093
0.494
0.175
0.925
0.250
0.862
0.663
0.468
0.130
0.183
0.069
0.347
0.693
0.977

7.393
8.343
8.025
8.198
7.851
7.943
7.527
8.431
8.122
7.525
8.186
7.472
8.060
7.547
8.607
8.354
8.063
8.623
8.298
8.080
8.355
8.305
8.489
8.170
8.579
8.042
7.825
7.952
7.855
8.515
7.545
7.995
7.669
8.490
7.757
8.381
8.152
7.971
7.607
7.679
7.496
7.857
8.183
8.642

35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78

0.909
0.838
0.681
0.903
0.658
0.671
0.275
0.005
0.836
0.115
0.156
0.457
0.386
0.927
0.482
0.799
0.855
0.925
0.879
0.780
0.378
0.914
0.163
0.830
0.248
0.767
0.845
0.524
0.911
0.364
0.381
0.717
0.909
0.313
0.358
0.095
0.173
0.479
0.661
0.459
0.175
0.698
0.022
0.130

8.379
8.044
7.511
8.346
7.442
7.481
6.353
4.703
8.038
5.746
5.933
6.882
6.683
8.483
6.950
7.895
8.118
8.470
8.222
7.827
6.662
8.403
5.959
8.011
6.266
7.782
8.074
7.067
8.390
6.620
6.670
7.621
8.379
6.470
6.603
5.646
5.999
6.941
7.450
6.888
6.008
7.563
5.068
5.818

35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78

0.312
0.493
0.746
0.644
0.022
0.547
0.724
0.015
0.213
0.951
0.543
0.039
0.226
0.085
0.125
0.628
0.865
0.160
0.756
0.110
0.803
0.327
0.689
0.303
0.042
0.197
0.083
0.433
0.737
0.103
0.855
0.897
0.643
0.065
0.374
0.490
0.698
0.436
0.027
0.814
0.186
0.163
0.229
0.716

0.288
0.333
0.009
0.323
0.333
0.837
0.488
0.593
0.474
0.724
0.749
0.759
0.084
0.185
0.021
0.762
0.034
0.002
0.540
0.614
0.144
0.434

7.798
7.844
7.279
7.834
7.843
8.347
7.989
8.085
7.976
8.214
8.241
8.252
7.527
7.682
7.351
8.255
7.403
7.173
8.036
8.105
7.626
7.940

79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100

0.085
0.075
0.020
0.427
0.826
0.471
0.407
0.870
0.088
0.905
0.470
0.911
0.740
0.628
0.202
0.444
0.109
0.410
0.723
0.606
0.753
0.805

5.587
5.526
5.032
6.799
7.998
6.921
6.743
8.181
5.604
8.353
6.918
8.386
7.696
7.356
6.106
6.847
5.719
6.752
7.640
7.294
7.737
7.919

79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100

0.425
0.903
0.582
0.390
0.908
0.234
0.478
0.878
0.712
0.495
0.908
0.526
0.966
0.943
0.124
0.027
0.087
0.983
0.730
0.822
0.301
0.439

Activity-E

Activity-F

Activity-G

[A]

[B]

alpha

beta

[A]

[B]

alpha

beta

[A]

[B]

E-generated

6.895
7.016
6.735
6.881
7.372
7.256
6.938
6.736
6.812
7.303
7.145
6.487
7.439
7.643
6.422
6.737
7.309
6.664
6.713
7.219
7.845
7.301
6.806
7.607
7.394
6.554
7.287
6.806
6.953
7.563
7.352
6.978
6.730
7.201

Run Number RAND()

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34

0.598
0.847
0.326
0.513
0.069
0.607
0.680
0.989
0.373
0.711
0.589
0.502
0.775
0.134
0.038
0.470
0.364
0.895
0.508
0.334
0.450
0.415
0.342
0.987
0.149
0.242
0.903
0.887
0.392
0.643
0.428
0.926
0.171
0.782

F-generated

4.181
4.721
3.673
4.024
2.995
4.197
4.339
5.409
3.765
4.402
4.163
4.004
4.541
3.224
2.832
3.945
3.748
4.868
4.015
3.689
3.909
3.843
3.705
5.382
3.268
3.497
4.898
4.840
3.801
4.267
3.867
4.984
3.327
4.557

Run Number RAND()

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34

0.398
0.381
0.961
0.849
0.421
0.698
0.181
0.614
0.899
0.093
0.204
0.019
0.644
0.122
0.972
0.129
0.597
0.317
0.704
0.715
0.924
0.467
0.157
0.501
0.684
0.027
0.655
0.326
0.671
0.934
0.002
0.970
0.849
0.479

G-generated

4.906
4.889
5.581
5.364
4.928
5.187
4.677
5.105
5.440
4.544
4.704
4.341
5.134
4.593
5.620
4.604
5.090
4.827
5.194
5.205
5.488
4.970
4.645
5.001
5.173
4.378
5.145
4.836
5.160
5.509
4.185
5.613
5.364
4.981

6.822
6.994
7.238
7.134
6.354
7.043
7.215
6.316
6.716
7.551
7.039
6.419
6.731
6.529
6.598
7.118
7.387
6.649
7.249
6.574
7.304
6.838
7.178
6.813
6.428
6.696
6.525
6.939
7.228
6.562
7.371
7.437
7.133
6.487
6.883
6.991
7.187
6.941
6.378
7.317
6.683
6.653
6.734
7.206

35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78

0.441
0.359
0.587
0.958
0.143
0.992
0.298
0.230
0.151
0.970
0.970
0.547
0.190
0.903
0.406
0.120
0.010
0.604
0.402
0.717
0.639
0.988
0.416
0.895
0.417
0.853
0.258
0.849
0.084
0.237
0.786
0.854
0.231
0.194
0.309
0.912
0.793
0.150
0.052
0.066
0.659
0.452
0.129
0.464

3.891
3.737
4.160
5.145
3.251
5.464
3.616
3.472
3.275
5.223
5.227
4.087
3.375
4.895
3.826
3.180
2.576
4.191
3.820
4.414
4.259
5.397
3.845
4.867
3.847
4.737
3.532
4.727
3.057
3.487
4.567
4.742
3.473
3.386
3.639
4.929
4.583
3.271
2.914
2.981
4.297
3.911
3.209
3.934

35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78

0.553
0.128
0.434
0.950
0.462
0.957
0.781
0.797
0.031
0.023
0.876
0.098
0.788
0.278
0.705
0.366
0.110
0.258
0.567
0.247
0.209
0.244
0.652
0.371
0.205
0.157
0.074
0.910
0.585
0.871
0.727
0.073
0.410
0.118
0.886
0.725
0.363
0.429
0.160
0.320
0.521
0.358
0.872
0.552

5.048
4.604
4.940
5.550
4.965
5.568
5.278
5.296
4.392
4.359
5.403
4.554
5.285
4.788
5.194
4.875
4.575
4.767
5.061
4.754
4.711
4.751
5.142
4.880
4.707
4.646
4.508
5.460
5.078
5.395
5.217
4.506
4.917
4.588
5.419
5.215
4.873
4.935
4.649
4.831
5.019
4.868
5.396
5.047

6.931
7.449
7.075
6.898
7.458
6.740
6.980
7.406
7.202
6.996
7.457
7.024
7.598
7.532
6.597
6.378
6.534
7.668
7.220
7.327
6.812
6.944

79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100

0.923
0.093
0.138
0.619
0.179
0.858
0.945
0.314
0.185
0.728
0.456
0.528
0.483
0.227
0.911
0.964
0.804
0.425
0.861
0.737
0.216
0.233

4.972
3.090
3.235
4.220
3.347
4.753
5.070
3.650
3.363
4.438
3.920
4.051
3.969
3.463
4.924
5.179
4.608
3.863
4.762
4.457
3.439
3.478

79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100

0.583
0.502
0.430
0.956
0.863
0.749
0.093
0.646
0.461
0.715
0.254
0.954
0.082
0.305
0.448
0.036
0.603
0.360
0.688
0.748
0.381
0.652

5.076
5.002
4.936
5.567
5.383
5.241
4.546
5.136
4.964
5.205
4.762
5.561
4.524
4.815
4.952
4.408
5.095
4.870
5.177
5.240
4.890
5.141

Solution for Assignment-1, using Ms excel (100 Simulations)

Activities With Durations

Run Number
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36

A
5.262
5.099
3.410
4.972
3.542
5.576
5.263
3.821
5.065
4.369
4.281
4.428
4.521
3.672
6.323
4.990
3.063
6.102
5.330
6.235
4.512
3.593
5.227
5.837
5.796
6.811
5.563
4.208
5.413
6.222
5.906
2.901
5.389
6.360
6.097
6.389

B
3.474
2.696
2.378
2.666
2.523
2.652
3.730
3.253
3.069
3.179
3.822
3.536
3.991
2.866
2.066
3.657
2.370
2.773
2.880
4.293
3.987
3.311
2.960
3.278
2.213
3.827
3.233
3.808
3.330
2.884
3.147
3.560
3.381
3.840
2.028
2.228

C
8.031
7.868
7.971
7.676
7.998
8.273
7.604
7.871
7.784
7.676
8.051
8.643
8.225
7.579
7.716
7.413
8.436
8.636
8.275
8.173
7.926
8.489
7.998
7.929
8.057
8.537
7.523
8.771
8.373
7.631
7.672
7.541
8.137
8.520
7.393
8.343

D
6.845
6.603
6.112
5.561
4.653
7.096
7.164
6.222
9.312
5.364
8.959
8.488
6.910
7.927
8.737
6.790
5.364
8.010
8.618
7.702
5.840
7.038
7.310
6.711
6.983
7.718
8.911
7.615
5.517
8.854
6.187
7.648
5.897
5.693
8.379
8.044

E
6.895
7.016
6.735
6.881
7.372
7.256
6.938
6.736
6.812
7.303
7.145
6.487
7.439
7.643
6.422
6.737
7.309
6.664
6.713
7.219
7.845
7.301
6.806
7.607
7.394
6.554
7.287
6.806
6.953
7.563
7.352
6.978
6.730
7.201
6.822
6.994

F
4.181
4.721
3.673
4.024
2.995
4.197
4.339
5.409
3.765
4.402
4.163
4.004
4.541
3.224
2.832
3.945
3.748
4.868
4.015
3.689
3.909
3.843
3.705
5.382
3.268
3.497
4.898
4.840
3.801
4.267
3.867
4.984
3.327
4.557
3.891
3.737

G
4.906
4.889
5.581
5.364
4.928
5.187
4.677
5.105
5.440
4.544
4.704
4.341
5.134
4.593
5.620
4.604
5.090
4.827
5.194
5.205
5.488
4.970
4.645
5.001
5.173
4.378
5.145
4.836
5.160
5.509
4.185
5.613
5.364
4.981
5.048
4.604

Completion
Critical Path Time
(Weeks)
(A+C+F+G)
22.4
(A+C+F+G)
22.6
(A+C+F+G)
20.6
(A+C+F+G)
22.0
(A+C+F+G)
19.5
(A+C+F+G)
23.2
(A+C+F+G)
21.9
(A+C+F+G)
22.2
(A+D+F+G)
23.6
(A+C+F+G)
21.0
(A+D+F+G)
22.1
(A+C+F+G)
21.4
(A+C+F+G)
22.4
(A+D+F+G)
19.4
(A+D+F+G)
23.5
(A+C+F+G)
21.0
(A+C+F+G)
20.3
(A+C+F+G)
24.4
(A+D+F+G)
23.2
(A+C+F+G)
23.3
(A+C+F+G)
21.8
(A+C+F+G)
20.9
(A+C+F+G)
21.6
(A+C+F+G)
24.1
(A+C+F+G)
22.3
(A+C+F+G)
23.2
(A+D+F+G)
24.5
(A+C+F+G)
22.7
(A+C+F+G)
22.7
(A+D+F+G)
24.9
(A+C+F+G)
21.6
(A+D+F+G)
21.1
(A+C+F+G)
22.2
(A+C+F+G)
24.4
(A+D+F+G)
23.4
(A+C+F+G)
23.1

37
38
39
40
41

4.705
7.078
4.813
5.455
3.914

3.376
2.835
2.396
2.377
1.943

8.025
8.198
7.851
7.943
7.527

7.511
8.346
7.442
7.481
6.353

7.238
7.134
6.354
7.043
7.215

4.160
5.145
3.251
5.464
3.616

4.940
5.550
4.965
5.568
5.278

(A+C+F+G)
(A+D+F+G)
(A+C+F+G)
(A+C+F+G)
(A+C+F+G)

21.8
26.1
20.9
24.4
20.3

42

5.840

2.501

8.431

4.703

6.316

3.472

5.296

(A+C+F+G)

23.0

43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80

4.977
3.349
3.059
6.856
5.158
7.245
5.376
3.095
3.280
4.696
5.130
3.754
6.395
5.384
4.663
4.764
4.827
3.630
5.346
5.538
6.135
5.580
5.425
3.984
2.626
4.204
4.844
5.432
6.890
5.064
5.391
5.734
5.368
3.855
5.721
4.580
5.895
6.096

2.779
3.079
4.248
3.361
3.872
2.417
3.240
2.694
4.347
4.137
3.264
3.002
2.888
2.470
2.131
3.062
1.904
3.088
3.026
4.406
1.899
3.429
3.234
3.955
2.207
2.582
2.094
2.078
3.794
3.482
2.613
2.955
2.849
1.876
2.358
3.640
3.046
2.409

8.122
7.525
8.186
7.472
8.060
7.547
8.607
8.354
8.063
8.623
8.298
8.080
8.355
8.305
8.489
8.170
8.579
8.042
7.825
7.952
7.855
8.515
7.545
7.995
7.669
8.490
7.757
8.381
8.152
7.971
7.607
7.679
7.496
7.857
8.183
8.642
7.798
7.844

8.038
5.746
5.933
6.882
6.683
8.483
6.950
7.895
8.118
8.470
8.222
7.827
6.662
8.403
5.959
8.011
6.266
7.782
8.074
7.067
8.390
6.620
6.670
7.621
8.379
6.470
6.603
5.646
5.999
6.941
7.450
6.888
6.008
7.563
5.068
5.818
5.587
5.526

6.716
7.551
7.039
6.419
6.731
6.529
6.598
7.118
7.387
6.649
7.249
6.574
7.304
6.838
7.178
6.813
6.428
6.696
6.525
6.939
7.228
6.562
7.371
7.437
7.133
6.487
6.883
6.991
7.187
6.941
6.378
7.317
6.683
6.653
6.734
7.206
6.931
7.449

3.275
5.223
5.227
4.087
3.375
4.895
3.826
3.180
2.576
4.191
3.820
4.414
4.259
5.397
3.845
4.867
3.847
4.737
3.532
4.727
3.057
3.487
4.567
4.742
3.473
3.386
3.639
4.929
4.583
3.271
2.914
2.981
4.297
3.911
3.209
3.934
4.972
3.090

4.392
4.359
5.403
4.554
5.285
4.788
5.194
4.875
4.575
4.767
5.061
4.754
4.711
4.751
5.142
4.880
4.707
4.646
4.508
5.460
5.078
5.395
5.217
4.506
4.917
4.588
5.419
5.215
4.873
4.935
4.649
4.831
5.019
4.868
5.396
5.047
5.076
5.002

(A+C+F+G)
(A+C+F+G)
(A+C+F+G)
(A+C+F+G)
(A+C+F+G)
(A+D+F+G)
(A+C+F+G)
(A+C+F+G)
(A+D+F+G)
(A+C+F+G)
(A+C+F+G)
(A+C+F+G)
(A+C+F+G)
(A+D+F+G)
(A+C+F+G)
(A+C+F+G)
(A+C+F+G)
(A+C+F+G)
(A+D+F+G)
(A+C+F+G)
(A+D+F+G)
(A+C+F+G)
(A+C+F+G)
(A+C+F+G)
(A+D+F+G)
(A+C+F+G)
(A+C+F+G)
(A+C+F+G)
(A+C+F+G)
(A+C+F+G)
(A+C+F+G)
(A+C+F+G)
(A+C+F+G)
(A+C+F+G)
(A+C+F+G)
(A+C+F+G)
(A+C+F+G)
(A+C+F+G)

20.8
20.5
21.9
23.0
21.9
25.4
23.0
19.5
18.5
22.3
22.3
21.0
23.7
23.9
22.1
22.7
22.0
21.1
21.5
23.7
22.7
23.0
22.8
21.2
19.4
20.7
21.7
24.0
24.5
21.2
20.6
21.2
22.2
20.5
22.5
22.2
23.7
22.0

81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100

3.319
5.618
5.962
5.237
6.928
3.054
6.484
3.186
4.750
5.894
4.326
6.345
4.602
3.450
6.428
5.541
5.483
4.115
5.662
5.433

3.442
2.888
2.925
3.359
2.706
3.036
4.178
2.371
3.475
3.296
3.153
3.286
2.334
1.892
2.991
2.896
3.862
2.714
2.810
2.161

7.279
7.834
7.843
8.347
7.989
8.085
7.976
8.214
8.241
8.252
7.527
7.682
7.351
8.255
7.403
7.173
8.036
8.105
7.626
7.940

5.032
6.799
7.998
6.921
6.743
8.181
5.604
8.353
6.918
8.386
7.696
7.356
6.106
6.847
5.719
6.752
7.640
7.294
7.737
7.919

7.075
6.898
7.458
6.740
6.980
7.406
7.202
6.996
7.457
7.024
7.598
7.532
6.597
6.378
6.534
7.668
7.220
7.327
6.812
6.944

3.235
4.220
3.347
4.753
5.070
3.650
3.363
4.438
3.920
4.051
3.969
3.463
4.924
5.179
4.608
3.863
4.762
4.457
3.439
3.478

4.936
5.567
5.383
5.241
4.546
5.136
4.964
5.205
4.762
5.561
4.524
4.815
4.952
4.408
5.095
4.870
5.177
5.240
4.890
5.141

(A+C+F+G)
(A+C+F+G)
(A+D+F+G)
(A+C+F+G)
(A+C+F+G)
(A+D+F+G)
(A+C+F+G)
(A+D+F+G)
(A+C+F+G)
(A+D+F+G)
(A+D+F+G)
(A+C+F+G)
(A+C+F+G)
(A+C+F+G)
(A+C+F+G)
(A+C+F+G)
(A+C+F+G)
(A+C+F+G)
(A+D+F+G)
(A+C+F+G)

18.8
23.2
22.7
23.6
24.5
20.0
22.8
21.2
21.7
23.9
20.5
22.3
21.8
21.3
23.5
21.4
23.5
21.9
21.7
22.0

Possible Paths

Completion

No. of times Percent of total

1)
2)
3)
4)

Time

out of 100

A-C-F-G
A-D-F-G
B-D-F-G
E-G

18.0
18.5
19.0
19.5
20.0
20.5
21.0
21.5
22.0
22.5
23.0
23.5
24.0
24.5
25.0
25.5
26.0
26.5
27.0

Min 18.5
Mean 22.2
Max 26.1

0
0
2
5
6
11
20
31
45
59
70
80
90
95
98
99
99
100
100

0
0
2
5
6
11
20
31
45
59
70
80
90
95
98
99
99
100
100

Probability of completion within the specified months

Project completion date in (Months)

18.0
19.0
20.0
21.0
22.0
23.0
24.0
25.0
26.0
27.0
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Probability values in (%)

* Hence as it could be seen from the above grapth and tables the probabilities that th
project will be completed in 20, 23 and 27 weeks are 6%, 70% and 100% respectively

This Row is added only for

graphical purpose

ed months

100

100

he probabilities that the

and 100% respectively.

Criticality index for the first 10 simulations

Completion

Activities With Durations

Run Number

Critical Path Time

1
2
3
4

5.262
5.099
3.410
4.972

3.474
2.696
2.378
2.666

8.031
7.868
7.971
7.676

6.845
6.603
6.112
5.561

6.895
7.016
6.735
6.881

4.181
4.721
3.673
4.024

4.906
4.889
5.581
5.364

(A+C+F+G)
(A+C+F+G)
(A+C+F+G)
(A+C+F+G)

(Weeks)

22.4
22.6
20.6
22.0

3.542

2.523

7.998

4.653

7.372

2.995

4.928

(A+C+F+G)

19.5

6
7
8
9
10

5.576
5.263
3.821
5.065
4.369

2.652
3.730
3.253
3.069
3.179

8.273
7.604
7.871
7.784
7.676

7.096
7.164
6.222
9.312
5.364

7.256
6.938
6.736
6.812
7.303

4.197
4.339
5.409
3.765
4.402

5.187
4.677
5.105
5.440
4.544

(A+C+F+G)
(A+C+F+G)
(A+C+F+G)
(A+D+F+G)
(A+C+F+G)

23.2
21.9
22.2
23.6
21.0

Criticality index OF paths

* For the first 10 simulations path (A+C+F+G), apears
Path
No. of occurance
(A+C+F+G)
9
(A+D+F+G)
1
Total
10

% of ocurance
90
10
100

9 times. which means 90% along the critical path.

And path (A+D+F+G) apears 1 time.

Criticality index of activities

* For the first 10 simulations Activities: A, F and G
Activity
A
B
C
D
E
F
G

No. of occurance
10
0
9
1
0
10
10

% of ocurance
100
0
90
10
0
100
100

apears along the critical path 100%. Where as

Activity C apears 90%, and D apears only 10%.

+F+G), apears
ritical path.

A, F and G

Solution for Assignment-1, using Monte Caelo Simulation (500 Simulations)

Activity

Minimun

Most Likely

Maximum

10

G
Sumation of time
along the critical path
after a 100 simulation

Completion
Time (Months)
18.0
18.5
19.0
19.5
20.0
20.5
21.0
21.5
22.0
22.5
23.0
23.5
24.0
24.5
25.0
25.5
26.0
26.5
27.0

Probability
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

No. of times
out of 500
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

Min
Mean
Max

Chart of Probabilities

Completion
Time (Months)
18.0
18.5
19.0
19.5
20.0
20.5
21.0
21.5
22.0
22.5
23.0
23.5
24.0
24.5
25.0
25.5
26.0
26.5
27.0

0 Simulations)

The results differ because we are dealing with PROBABILITIES

occurances of an uncertain outcome and since it is not expected t
have a similar and unique result of the different methods.
But we may expect a value within a range and the results
we obtained using the different methods shall fall around
a similar range. Thus in total these methods can give us not
an exact value, rather an insight of what looks like the most
probable outcome of activities especially that we don't have
enough exposure/experience before.

Random Value
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

Probability
18.0
19.0
Project Completion Time in (month)

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

Probability of completion within the specified months

20.0
21.0
22.0
23.0
24.0
25.0
26.0
27.0
0%

20%

40%

60%

Probability Values in (%)

80%

100%

aling with PROBABILITIES of

and since it is not expected to
he different methods.
range and the results
hods shall fall around
methods can give us not
what looks like the most
cially that we don't have