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The tsunami generation mechanism is not yet fully understood. Theories are examined in relation to observed tsunami henomena.!onditions to be satisfied in numerical simulation are summari"ed. Three sub&ects in urgent needs are the dee'sea measurement of tsunamis$ transfer of tsunami knowledge and strengthening of coastal cities against tsunamis.
The tsunami generation mechanism is not yet fully understood. Theories are examined in relation to observed tsunami henomena.!onditions to be satisfied in numerical simulation are summari"ed. Three sub&ects in urgent needs are the dee'sea measurement of tsunamis$ transfer of tsunami knowledge and strengthening of coastal cities against tsunamis.
The tsunami generation mechanism is not yet fully understood. Theories are examined in relation to observed tsunami henomena.!onditions to be satisfied in numerical simulation are summari"ed. Three sub&ects in urgent needs are the dee'sea measurement of tsunamis$ transfer of tsunami knowledge and strengthening of coastal cities against tsunamis.
-Science, Disasters and Mitigation- N. SHUTO Faculty of Policy Studies, Iwate Prefectural University Iwate 020-019, !a"an Abstract Present knowledge of tsunamis are reviewed and discussed. The tsunami generation mechanism is not yet fully understood. Theories are examined in relation to observed tsunami henomena. !onditions to be satisfied in numerical simulation are summari"ed. #n addition to loss of human lives$ several disasters are tabulated. %efense works including coastal structures$ city lanning and revention systems are briefly introduced. Three sub&ects in urgent needs are the dee'sea measurement of tsunamis$ transfer of tsunami knowledge and strengthening of coastal cities against tsunamis. 1. Introduction Since ()*+,s$ tsunami science and technology have been develoing remarkably$ assisted by the rogress of seismology and comuter science. #n ())+,s$ more than ten disastrous tsunamis occurred in the Pacific. #nternational cooeration is successfully established to survey tsunami heights and to understand the tsunamis. #n the resent aer$ the knowledge commonly used in these works is reviewed and the roblems to be solved in the near future are discussed. -. !. .al/0ner$ 1. Pelinovsky$ 1. Okal$ !. 1. Synolakis 2eds.3$ Submarine 4andslides and Tsunamis ('5. 67++8 9luwer -cademic Publishers. Printed in Netherlands 2. Science of Tsunamis 7.( :1N1;-T#ON O< TSUN-=#S Since Thucydides$ a :reek historian$ recogni"ed in >7? @! that a tsunami on 1uboea #sland was the result of an earthAuake$ many tsunamis were generated and recorded in the world. !auses are submarine earthAuakes$ landslides$ and volcanic action. The most of causes are submarine earthAuakes. Not the ground shaking but the vertical sea'bottom deformation generates a tsunami. The greater an earthAuake is$ the larger the vertical dislacement is and conseAuently the greater tsunami is generated. This rule is alicable to the ordinary tsunamigenic earthAuake with a serious excetion$ tsunami' earthAuake. Since the Nicaraguan tsunami in Setember ())7$ more than ten tsunamis gave damages in the Pacific. Three of them were tsunami'earthAuakes. #n the ()*+,s$ the method to determine the tsunami initial rofile generated by submarine earthAuake was develoed. #n ()*($ =ansinha and Smylie B(C roosed a method to estimate sea bottom dislacement caused by an earthAuake if fault arameters were given. 4ater B7C gave a more comlete set of analytic formulas to comute the surface dislacement due to a fault laced in an elastic homogeneous half'sace. #n ()*>$ 9anamori and !ier B8C oened the way to calculate fault arameters from seismic records with the aid of the advancing high'seed comuter$ by using the ()?+ !hilean earthAuake as an examle. !ombined these two$ the final dislacement caused by an earthAuake$ i.e. the initial tsunami rofile$ can be estimated. This method has been most oularly used since then. Sometimes$ however$ the tsunami initial rofile thus determined cannot satisfy the tsunami energy distribution measured along the shoreline. This difference may be due to heterogeneity of fault movement$ existence of sub'faults$ dynamic movement of fault$ or so on. There is only one examle of the measured tsunami rofile. Plafker B>C determined the vertical dislacement caused by the ()?> :reat -laska earthAuake$ by dislacement on islands and by comarison with a re'earthAuake toograhy. -long the direction of the short axis of the deformation area$ the tsunami initial wave is about >D+ km long with one trough and one crest. The wave height is ? m. This long wave is considered to correlate with the ma&or energy of the earthAuake and is$ therefore$ estimated from the fault arameters. Near its crest$ a shar rise was found. This rise about ? m high and 8+ km wide at its base$ although its contribution to tsunami height is aarently imortant$ can not be estimated from seismic information. This rise may be caused by a sub'fault. These short wave comonents are not imortant in case of a far'field tsunami. 1ntraed and scattered by islands and seamounts on the route of roagation$ their systematic wavy shae will be lost. Only long eriod comonents can arrive at distant shores$ not disturbed so much by toograhy along the ath. #n case of a near'field tsunami$ short eriod comonents that are not estimated from seismic information are very imortant and are considered to be the ma&or reason of the discreancy between the measured tsunami heights on the shore and the comuted. #t is often noticed that the initial tsunami rofile based uon fault arameters should be made nearly double in order to exlain the measured tsunami traces. 2 The mechanism of tsunami earthAuake is not yet clearly understood. <ukao BDC exlained two tsunami earthAuakes at the 9urile Trench by sub'faults in the thick sedimentary wedge at the leading edge of the continental lithoshere. Tanioka et al. B?C consider that tsunami earthAuakes at the Eaan Trench are the result of the horst and graben structures of sea bottom$ which gives the scattered contact "ones in the subducted sediments along the interlate boundary. The generation mechanism by other causes is not yet clearly understood$ although many researchers have been studying. 7.7 P;OP-:-T#ON -N% ;UN'UP - ma&or tsunami in the ocean is several tens kilometres long and several meters high. #t is long and small comared to the ocean deth of several kilometres. The linear long' wave theory is successfully alicable if the travel distance is not long. <or a long travel$ e.g. over the Pacific Ocean$ other consideration is reAuired. <irstly$ the eAuations should be described with the sherical co'ordinate system$ because the earth is a shere. Secondly$ the !oriolis term should not be missed. Thirdly$ the freAuency disersion term of the first order aroximation should be included$ if the 9a&iura arameter relating to the dimension of the source$ the travel distance and the water deth is smaller than > B*C. Under these conditions$ the linear @oussinesA eAuation is often used. -roaching the shore$ the wave height increases and the water deth decreases. Then$ non'linear characteristics of water motion reAuire the shallow'water theory including the bottom friction term$ in which the amlitude disersion term becomes imortant. The boundary between the linear long'wave theory and the shallow'water theory is aroximately the water deth of 7++ m. -roaching further the shore$ a tsunami shows many faces in relation to water deth$ bottom sloe$ wave height and wave length. #f a tsunami is like a raid tide without breaking front$ the shallow'water theory is successfully alied. #f a tsunami with breaking front comes nearly normally to the shore$ the shallow'water theory is also alicable if the tsunami runu height is the ma&or concern. #f a tsunami with breaking front runs along the shore as an edge bore that follows sometimes the ordinary refraction law deending uon the water deth but sometimes roagates neglecting the law$ there is no theory alicable at resent. - hydraulic exeriment revealed that a slight change in the side boundary condition resulted in a big change in waveform B5C. <or a tsunami with an undular'bore front$ higher order disersion terms are reAuired. The @oussinesA eAuation$ Peregrine eAuation or :oto eAuation should be used in accordance with the strength of non'linearity. @ut accuracy and limit of these eAuations are not yet well determined. Tsunamis finally run u and down the shore. Since eAuations in the 1ulerian descrition cannot exress the front condition$ aroximate moving boundary conditions are introduced. <or ordinary toograhy on land where the sloe is gentle$ the shallow'water theory in which the vertical acceleration is neglected is alicable. #n the rare cases of very stee sloe$ the vertical acceleration of water flow becomes non'negligible and other eAuations than the shallow'water eAuations are reAuired. Tsunamis run u on land and leave sediments as a roof of their existence. =any aleotsunamis were excavated. No work succeeded until now to exlain the magnitude and movement of aleotsunamis from sediment samles. 3 7.8 %1S#:N O< NU=1;#!-4 S#=U4-T#ON %ifference eAuations are not the original differential eAuations but are the aroximate eAuations of the latter. Numerical errors are inevitable. Fhen difference eAuations are solved$ several conditions should be satisfied to ensure the accuracy of the results and the stability of comutation. #n addition to the !<4 condition that is reAuired for the wave eAuation$ several other conditions should be satisfied. #n case of the leafrog scheme used in <%= comutation$ more than 7+ satial grids are reAuired within one local wavelength. =ore than D+ satial grids are necessary at the front of runu waves$ if an aroximate moving boundary condition is used B)C. :rid lengths should exress well tsunami diffraction and refraction due to local toograhy. There is no criterion to design satial length in relation to toograhy$ although several attemts are made. #n case of other schemes$ e.g. <1=$ numerical inaccuracy due to truncation error should be examined well. There are two crucial factors in the due evaluation of the computed results. The first one is the initial condition and the second the sea bottom topography. An initial profile constructed from seismic data always requires, particularly in case of a near-field tsunami, some adjustment as described in 2.1. The sea bottom topography that governs refraction then determines the path and convergence of tsunami, is not always precise data. The most popular sea bottom topography is the chart, the main purpose of which is to ensure the route of navigation. The area far from the route is sparsely measured and imprecisely determined by interpolation. This method often misses sea topography imortant in refraction. #$%&' 1( )inds, ty"es and causes of tsuna*i disaster Human 4ives %rowned. @uried by sands. #n&ured hit by debris etc. %isease caused by swallowing alien substances during drifting. Houses Fashed away. %estroyed. <looded. @urnt. !oastal Structures Toe erosion$ dislacement and overturning of sea walls$ sea dikes$ breakwaters and Auay walls. Scattering and subsidence of concrete blocks. Traffics ;ailway 1rosion of embankments. %islacement of rails and bridges. ;ails buried by sands. Highway %islacement and falling down of bridges. Overturning of bridge abutment by scouring. 1rosion of embankment. !losure of traffic by debris on roads. Harbour !hange in water deth 2erosion and deosition3 !losure of ort area due to transorted debris and cars. !losure of ort entrance by fishing gears washed'away. !ollision of shis in harbour. 4ifelines Fater sulies %estruction of hydrants by collision of debris. 1lectricity Overturning and washed'away of electric oles. Power lants flooded. Telehone %amage to telehone lines and oles. !ut'off of underground telehone line at the &unction to the aerial lines. Submergence of telehone receivers. <ishery 4 %amage to fishing boats. %estruction and loss of rafts$ fishes and shells in aAuaculture. 4oss of fishing nets and other fishing gears. !ommerce %ereciation of goods by submergence. -griculture Physiological damage to cros due to submergence. %amage to farms buried by sands. !losure of irrigation channels filled by sands and debris. <orest Physical damage 2breaking and overturning of trees3. Soil erosion. Physiological damage by seawater and sands. Oil sill 1nvironmental ollution. Sread of fires. <ire 2causes3 9itchen fire. Heating. 1ngine room of fishing boats. Submerged batteries of fishing boats. !ollision to gasoline tanks. 1lectricity short circuit caused by seawater. The validation of the comuted results$ i.e.$ tsunami height$ is done by comaring them with the tide records and tsunami trace data. Some tye of tide gauge has hydraulic filtering effect that reduces short'eriod comonents B(+C. Tsunami trace data are often biased because many surveyors are attracted to measure only high values. There is no attemt to validate the comuted velocity$ wave rofile$ wave forces and so on$ excet one B((C. 5 . !isasters 8.( 9#N%S O< %#S-ST1; Table ( summari"es disasters caused by tsunamis$ collected from documents in the ast. %etailed analysis is carried out in relation to tsunami intensity B(7$ (8C. 4oss of human lives deends much uon the action of eole on and near the shore when an earthAuake occurs. Once caught by a water flow even as thin as *+cm$ a erson may be swallowed to drown$ because the current velocity is Auite strong. Fooden houses are weak. On an average$ a wooden house is comletely destroyed if the tsunami height above ground exceeds 7 meters. ;einforced concrete buildings are strong. -ccording to records$ every reinforced'concrete buildings were not damaged excet for windows and gates and were resistant enough to rotect weak wooden houses behind them. %estructive force is not only the tsunami force but also imact of lumbers$ fishing boats and houses transorted by tsunamis. #mact force of one lumber is formulated by hydraulic exeriments B(>C. %amage to fishing boats moored andGor laced near the shoreline begins with the tsunami height of 7 m. #f a shi or a boat meet a tsunami on the sea deeer than 7++ meters$ they are safe because of small tsunami height and gentle tsunami front sloe. =any fishermen want to bring their boats to the dee sea when a tsunami warning is issued. This action may lead them to the very dangerous situation that boats get aground by tsunami ebb near shore and get turned by the next flood before they arrive at the safe lace. Hiolent currents induced by tsunamis are the cause of erosion and deosition. Not only local scouring at the toe of coastal structures but also toograhical change of large scale often occurs. No one has ever succeeded to numerically simulate these toograhical changes$ artially due to the inaccuracy of comuted currents and artially due to the lack of knowledge about the movement of sediment under tsunami effect. 8.7 TSUN-=#$ O#4 -N% <#;1 1ven in olden days$ tsunami'related fires occurred. -t night on Eanuary 7*$ (*++$ a tsunami suddenly hit the village of =iyako$ Sanriku !oast$ Eaan$ with no recedent earthAuake. - fire started from overturned houses and about >+ houses were burnt. The tsunami was generated at the !ascade subduction "one off the western coast of US-. #n the future$ the most ha"ardous effect will be given to the coastal industrial areas by the combination of tsunami$ oil and fire. #f an earthAuake or a tsunami damages oil tanks$ and if the oil sread by the tsunami catches fire$ or if the burning oil is transorted by the tsunami$ the result is devastating. There were five examlesI three in -laska$ US-$ one in !alifornia$ US-$ and one in Niigata$ Eaan. -ll of them occurred in ()?>. Sread of oil can be numerically simulated$ if eAuations for movement of oil are simultaneously solved with eAuations for tsunami B(DC. -n emirical formula is roosed to estimate the si"e of the burnt area in terms of the volume of stored oil B(?C. ". Miti#ation of Tsunami $a%ards >.( !O-ST-4 ST;U!TU;1S Tsunami countermeasures consist of three arts from hard wares to softwareI structures$ city lanning and systems. 6 Sea walls and coastal dikes are the tyical defense structures. They are effective if the tsunami height is lower than their crown height$ or a slightly higher 2may be$ D+ cm or ( m3. #f the tsunami height is higher by more than D m$ they do not work at all B(*C. Tsunami breakwaters are constructed at the mouth of a bay where the water is dee$ in order to limit the water discharge into the bay. Since they are exensive$ only a few are constructed. - tsunami gate at the river mouth stos the tsunami invasion into the river$ in lace of heightening long river embankments. !oastal forests are also one of defense structures. - well'designed coastal forest of the Eaanese red'ine trees works well to sto boats and other floated debris if the tsunami height above ground is smaller then 8 meters B(7C. >.7 !#T. P4-NN#N: The ma&or items in the city lanning are movement of residences to Jtsunami'freeK high ground and establishment of the tsunami'resistant building "one near the shoreline. Since olden days$ the movement of residence to high ground is one of the most effective methods in tsunami defense work. The highest tsunami runu measured andGor comuted for the biggest tsunami in the ast is usually used to determine the tsunami'flooded area. ;ecently in Eaan$ tsunamis that may be generated by the largest earthAuake exected from seismo'tectonics are also taken into consideration. The tsunami'free high ground is outside of the area thus determined. #n many documents and after'tsunami survey reorts$ it is recorded that reinforced' concrete buildings are strong enough to resist tsunami force. Only one excetion is a lighthouse that was hit by the ()>? -leutian tsunami 7+ m high above ground. #f the tsunami height above ground is less than D m$ all the buildings can withstand B(7C. This fact leads to the idea of the tsunami'resistant building "one that cannot erfectly sto the tsunami water intrusion but is exected to sto more dangerous floated materials. #n the coastal industrial area$ fishing harbor and leisure boats anchorage$ storage tanks of inflammable materials should be carefully located and rotected against tsunami effects. >.8 TSUN-=# P;1H1NT#ON S.ST1=S #n addition to structures and city lanning$ software should be taken into consideration to comlete the tsunami defense work. The tsunami revention system consists of forecasting$ warning$ evacuation$ ublic education$ drills$ inheritance of disaster culture$ and the relief oeration after disaster. The last way to save human lives is an early evacuation based on the forecasting and warning. -n earthAuake that makes you unable to stand by yourself on a beach is a natural warning of a tsunami. 4eave the beach as soon as ossible and climb u to a ground higher than 7+ m. This is the rule to save the lives from the danger of the near'field tsunami generated by tsunamigenic earthAuake. -nother rule is Ja loud booming noise could mean a tsunami is coming.K This noise may be generated by the breaking front of a tsunami higher than 7.D meters B(8C. =any countries have their own tsunami forecasting and warning systems. =ost of them use the emirical relationshis between earthAuake magnitude and tsunami magnitude for tsunamigenic earthAuakes. The forecasting system in <rench Polynesia uses the mantle magnitude and is effective for a tsunami earthAuake$ too. 7 #n -ril ()))$ the Eaan =eteorological -gency renewed its forecasting system based uon numerical simulation for nearly (++$+++ cases. This is also for tsunamigenic earthAuakes. ;ecords of broadband seismograhs are used to make the correction for a tsunami earthAuake. The ublic education is the crucial key to save human lives. #t is very rare for any erson to exerience lural large tsunamis in his life. #f a erson has a simle knowledge that a tsunami will come after an earthAuake$ and if he behaves wisely to climb u to high ground$ he will be saved. This knowledge should be transferred to the future generation and to coastal residents in every tsunami'risk areas. The most difficult is to find an effective way to continue this knowledge for several tens or hundreds years. &. Conc'udin# Remar(s The most urgent sub&ect in research as well as in ractical alication is the imrovement of the method to determine tsunami initial rofiles with seismic data alone. #n order to solve this roblem$ we need observation networks in the ocean. Ocean'bottom seismograhs near tsunami sources are indisensable to understand the details of fault movements. %ee'ocean tsunami gauges will catch tsunamis at or &ust after their birth. New technologies such as satellite hotometry are desirable to obtain a lan of tsunami rofile. Fith these data$ a further develoment in tsunami research becomes ossible. The second is the continuation of tsunami knowledge to future generation as well as the transfer of it to those who live in tsunami'risk areas but have no clear tsunami history. 1very means such as ublic education$ TH media and others should be used. @ut it is Auite difficult is to kee coastal residents, continuous attention. #n the Sanriku region$ the most tsunami'risky area in the world$ secial drills once a year have been carried out on the =emorial %ay of the ast tsunamis with articiators constantly reducing in number. To find a way to break this situation is an urgent task. Thirdly$ keeing the fact in mind that disastrous tsunami occurs once er tens or hundreds years$ the coastal residents should make their town resistant to tsunamis at every occasion when the town is changed and develoed. The knowledge for this reinforcement should be given in terms of building codes and Gor manuals. References (. =ansinha$ 4. and %.1. Smylie 2()*(3 The dislacement field of inclined faults$ %ulletin of t+e Seis*ological Society of $*erica$ )1$ (>88'(>>+. 7. Okada$ .. 2()5D3 Surface deformation due to shear and tensile faults in a half'sace$ %ulletin of t+e Seis*ological Society of $*erica$ *&$ ((8D'((D>. 8. 9anamori$ H. and E.E. !ier 2()*>3 <ocal rocess of the :reat !hilean 1arthAuake$ =ay 77$ ()?+$ P+ysics of 'art+ and Planetary Interiors$ +$ (75'(8?. >. Plafker$ :. 2()?D3 Tectonic deformation associated with the ()?> -laska 1arthAuake$ Science$ 1",$ (?*D'(?5*. D. <ukao$ .. 2()*)3 Tsunami earthAuakes and subduction rocesses near dee'sea trenches$ !( ,eo"+ysical -esearc+$ ,"$ 78+8'78(> ?. Tanioka$ ..$ 4. ;uff and 9. Satake 2())*3 Fhat controls the lateral variation of large earthAuake occurrence along the Eaan Trench$ #+e Island $rc$ )$ 7?('7??. *. 9a&iura$ 9. 2()*+3 Tsunami source$ energy and the directivity of wave radiation$ %ulletin of t+e 'art+.ua/e -esearc+ Institute, University of Tokyo$ ",$ 58D'5?). 5. Uda$ T. et al. 2()553 Two'dimensional deformation of nonlinear long waves on a beach$ -e"ort 0o(2122, Public Forks ;esearch #nstitute$ ((8. 2#n Eaanese3. ). Shuto$ N. 2())(3 Numerical simulation of tsunamis'#ts resent and near future$ in 1. N. @ernard 2ed.3$ Tsunami Ha"ard$ 9luwer -cademic Publishers$ %ordrecht$ .(*('()(. 8 (+. Satake$ 9. et al. 2()553 Tide gauge resonse to tsunamisI =easurements at >+ tide gauge stations in Eaan$ !( Marine -es($ ")$ DD*'D*(. ((. Takahashi$ T.$ <. #mamura and N. Shuto 2())83 Numerical simulation of toograhy change due to tsunamis$ Proc( I#S39$ 7>8'7DD. (7. Shuto$ N. 2())83 Tsunami intensity and disasters, $dvances in 0atural and #ec+nological 4a5ards -esearc+$ ($ ()*'7(?. (8. Shuto$ N. 2())*3 - natural warning of tsunami arrival$ $dvances in 0atural and #ec+nological 4a5ards -esearc+$ +$ (D*'(*8. (>. =atsutomi$ H. 2()))3 - ractical formula for estimating imulsive force due to driftwood and variation features of the imulsive force$ !( 4ydraulic, 6oastal and 'nviron*ental 'ng($ Eaan Society of !ivil 1ngineering$ No.?++$ ##'>>$ (()'(7> 2in Eaanese3. (D. :oto$ !. 2()5D3 - simulation method of oil sread due to tsunamis, Proc( !a"an Society of 6ivil 'ngineers$ No.8D*$ ##'8$ 7(*'778 2in Eaanese3. (?. Shuto$ N. 2()5*3I Sread of oil and fire due to tsunamis$ Proc( I#S372$ (55'7+>. (*. Shuto$ N. 2())D3I Tsunamis$ disasters and defence works in case of the ())8 Hokkaido'Oki 1arthAuake Tsunami$ $dvances in 0atural and #ec+nological 4a5ards -esearc+$ "$ 7?8'7*?. 9