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Financing Analisys

PLTM Pugeran Project


2 x 3,98 MW
Kendal
Developer
PT. Pembangkit Listrik Tirta Anugrah
COMPANY INFORMATION
.

.
Site Conditions
Project Information
Project name Pugeran
Project ID
Project location
Sub-district Pugeran
City Kendal
Province Jawa Tengah
Latitude of project location N
Longitude of project location E
Rain Intensity mm/year 4500
River Basin Area km2 145
9.413671875
Site Characteristics
Gross head m 100
Forbay Elevation m 657
Normal tailwater Elevation m 557
Maximum flood tailwater elevation m 562
Residual flow m/s
Firm flow m/s 9.0
Channel Lenght m 2900
Penstock Diameter m 2
Penstock Lenght m 320
Road construction/Access Road m 1000
Design Number of Turbine Turbine 2
Financial Assumptions
Water retribution Rp/KWh
Average Cost of Electricity (Rp/kWh) Rp 656.00
Nominal Electricity Escalation Rate %/Year 0%
Infation Rate % 6%
Discount Rate % 12.5%
Interest Rate % 11
Debt Term Year 7
Debt Ratio % 70
Project life Year 15
Depreciation Term Year 20
Exchange Rate Rp/USD 8700
Salvage Value 0.1
Tax % 25
Hydro plant capacity factor 55
Land Acquisition m2 5000 9.4
Land Acquisition Price Rp/m2(1000) 20
PLTM Pugeran Project
Kendal
Jawa Tengah
2 x 3,98 MW
Project Location
System Characteristics
El. 657
1. Open Channel
2. Forebay
3. Penstock
4. Power House
5. Turbine
6. Tailrace
El. 557
Grid type -
Design flow m/s 9.413671875
Number of turbines turbine 2
Turbine peak efficiency % 0.86
Turbine efficiency at design flow % 0.83
Maximum hydraulic losses % 6
Generator efficiency % 95
Transformer losses %
Parasitic electricity losses %
Annual downtime losses % 80
1
Level I
Level II
2
3
4
5
6
H Friction
H
Pressure
Tank
Turbine
Small Hydro Turbine Characteristics
Turbine type Horizontal axis Francis turbine Horizontal axis, 2 jet, 1 runner Pelton impulse turbine
Number of turbines turbine 2 2
Flow Rate Per Unit m3/s/Unit 4.706835938 4.706835938
Energy Delivery per unit MW/Unit 3.9735 3.614
Total Hydro plant capacity MW 7.947 7.228
Rated head m 97.46 89.96
Peak eff. (Francis) Or Peak eff. Q/jet (Pelton) m3/s 4.20 1.77
Design flow m/s 9.413671875 9.413671875
Turbine efficiency curve data source - Standard Standard
Hydro turbine manufacturer MW Voith Siemens Voith Siemens
Generator Rate for 2 Turbine MW 3.974 3.614
Turbine manufacture/design coefficient - 4.5 4.5
Efficiency adjustment % 0% 0.00
Turbine peak efficiency % 93.21 26 0.91
Turbine efficiency at design flow % 85.8% 0.86
Speed rpm 750 187.50
Calculated number of runner blades 13 2.53
Calculated runner throat diameter (d) meter 0.84
Calculated minimum shaft centerline elevation, m = 564.53
Jet diameter (m) = 0.27
Penstock Diameter meter 2 2.00
Wall Tickness (mm) 19 19
Pipe Material 2 2.00
Penstock lenght meter 320 320.00
Velocity in Penstock 2.996 3.00
Specific Roughness () 0.00000150 0.00
Reynold number 5992929.646 5992929.65
Darcy Friction Factor 0.018 0.02
Loss Coefficient, Zeta Value of Valve 0.13 0.13
Total friction Loss (Hfriction) 2.545 2.55
Max Surge Pressure when turbine off/valve close at To
P = difference in pressure Bar 31.26 @ closing time 0 sec
Surge Pressure In Systems when Suddenly close Bar 41.00 @ closing time 0 sec
Time of pressure surge (critical time) in sec Sec 0.70 @ closing time 0 sec
Valve Closing time to avoid water hammer sec 2.30 Max. pressure in System will be 10,3 Bar Min Pressure will be10,1 bar
Horizontal axis Francis turbine Horizontal axis, 2 jet, 1 runner Pelton impulse turbine
Turbine Efficiency Curve Data Turbine Efficiency Curve Data
Flow Turbine Combined Flow Turbine Combined
efficiency running turbine efficiency running turbine
(%) # efficiency (%) # efficiency
0% 0.00 0.00 0% 0.00 0.00
5% 1.00 0.37 5% 1.00 0.86
10% 1.00 0.56 10% 1.00 0.86
15% 1.00 0.70 15% 1.00 0.86
Turbine Type Sugestion Horizontal axis Francis turbine 20% 1.00 0.75 20% 1.00 0.87
Comment 25% 1.00 0.79 25% 1.00 0.87
30% 1.00 0.82 30% 1.00 0.87
35% 1.00 0.84 35% 1.00 0.86
40% 1.00 0.86 40% 1.00 0.86
45% 1.00 0.87 45% 1.00 0.86
50% 1.00 0.88 50% 1.00 0.86
55% 2.00 0.88 55% 2.00 0.86
60% 2.00 0.88 60% 2.00 0.86
Total Hydro plant capacity MW 7.947 65% 2.00 0.89 65% 2.00 0.86
Energy Equipment Set Rp (1.000,-) 16,857,981 70% 2.00 0.89 70% 2.00 0.86
Hydro plant capacity kW 7946.61 75% 2.00 0.89 75% 2.00 0.86
MW 7.947 80% 2.00 0.88 80% 2.00 0.86
hydro plant firm capacity kW 85% 2.00 0.88 85% 2.00 0.86
Available flow adjustment factor - 0 90% 2.00 0.88 90% 2.00 0.86
Small hydro plant capacity factor % 55.00 95% 2.00 0.87 95% 2.00 0.86
Annual energy delivered MWh 37,762.30 100% 2.00 0.86 100% 2.00 0.86
Combination of capacity, head and flow is
suitable for this type of turbine. otherwise
Horizontal axis, 2 jet, 1 runner impulse turbine
Combination of capacity, head and flow NOT
suitable for this type of turbine.
0.00
0.50
1.00
0
%
1
5
%
3
0
%
4
5
%
6
0
%
7
5
%
9
0
%
Combined turbine
efficiency
0.00
0.50
1.00
0
%
1
5
%
3
0
%
4
5
%
6
0
%
7
5
%
9
0
%
Combined turbine
efficiency
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
Efficiency Comparison
Horizontal axis Francis turbine
Horizontal axis, 2 jet, 1 runner Pelton impulse turbine
Initial costs (credits) Unit Quantity Unit cost (Rp) Amount (Rp) Costs Companent Ratio
Rp1,000 Rp. 1000
Feasibility study
Site investigation p-d 30 1,000 30,000 0.07% 3%
Resource assessment project 1 10,000 10,000 0.02% 1%
Environmental assessment p-d 30 1,200 36,000 0.08% 4%
Preliminary design p-d 30 1,200 36,000 0.08% 4%
Detailed cost estimate p-d 15 1,200 18,000 0.04% 2%
GHG baseline study & MP project 1 1,200 1,200 0.00% 0%
Report preparation p-d 1 25,000 25,000 0.06% 3%
Project management M 12 60,000 720,000 1.67% 77%
Travel & accommodation p-trip 60 1,000 60,000 0.14% 6%
Sub-total: 936,200
Development - 0.00%
Contract negotiations p-d 1 50,000 50,000 0.12% 4%
Permits & approvals p-d 1 15,000 15,000 0.03% 1%
Site survey & land rights p-d 1 160,000 160,000 0.37% 14%
GHG validation & registration project 1 250,000 250,000 0.58% 22%
Project financing p-d 1 500,000 500,000 1.16% 44%
Legal & accounting p-d 1 75,000 75,000 0.17% 7%
Project management p-d 1 25,000 25,000 0.06% 2%
Travel & accommodation p-trip 50 1,000 50,000 0.12% 4%
Sub-total: 1,125,000
Engineering - 0.00%
Site & building design p-d 60 1,000 60,000 0.14% 7%
Mechanical design p-d 60 1,000 60,000 0.14% 7%
Electrical design p-d 60 1,000 60,000 0.14% 7%
Civil design p-d 60 1,000 60,000 0.14% 7%
Tenders & contracting p-d 60 250 15,000 0.03% 2%
Construction supervision p-d 360 1,750 630,000 1.46% 71%
Sub-total: 885,000
0.00%
Power system - 0.00%
Hydro turbine kW 7.95 16,857,981 16,857,981 39.02% 94%
Transmission line km 200 5,000 1,000,000 2.31% 6%
Substation project 1 - - 0.00% 0%
Energy efficiency measures project 1 - - 0.00% 0%
Sub-total: 17,857,981
0.00%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Site investigation
Environmental assessment
Detailed cost estimate
Report preparation
Travel & accommodation
Feasibility study
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Contract negotiations
Site survey & land rights
Project financing
Project management
Development
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Site & building design
Civil design
Engineering
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Hydro turbine
Power system
Balance of system & miscellaneous - 0.00%
Delivery equipment project 1 1,300,000 1,300,000 3.01% 6%
Road construction km 1,000 3,000 3,000,000
Preparation equipment project 1 - - 0.00% 0%
Storage equipment project 1 - - 0.00% 0%
Distribution equipment project 1 - - 0.00% 0%
Clearing m2 5,000.0 12 60,000 0.14% 0%
Earth excavation m3 600.0 20 12,000 0.03% 0%
Rock excavation m3 - - 0.00% 0%
Concrete dam unit 1 900,000 900,000 2.08% 4%
Earthfill dam m3 500 18 9,000 0.02% 0%
Dewatering - 0.00% 0%
Spillway unit 1 200,000 200,000 0.46% 1%
Canal m' 2,900 1,500 4,350,000 10.07% 20%
Intake m3 - - 0.00% 0%
Tunnel m' - - 0.00% 0%
Penstock kg 296,884.39 25 7,422,110 17.18% 35%
Powerhouse civil m2 1,000 3,000 3,000,000 6.94% 14%
Fishway m3 - - 0.00% 0%
Building & yard construction m2 200 3,000 600,000 1.39% 3%
Spare parts % 3.0% - - 0.00% 0%
Transportation project 1 300,000 300,000 0.69% 1%
Land Acquisition m2 5,000 20 100,000 0.23% 0%
Sub-total: 21,253,110
0.00%
Miscellaneous 0.00%
Training & commissioning p-d 5 30,000 150,000 0.35% 13%
Contingencies % 2.3% 1,000,000 1,000,000 2.31% 87%
Sub-total: 1,150,000 93.06%
Total initial costs 43,207,291
Cost Summary
Feasibility study 3.0% 2.17% 936,200
Development 5.5% 2.60% 1,125,000
Engineering 2.3% 2.05% 885,000
Power system 19.8% 41.33% 17,857,981
Balance of system & miscellaneous 58.4% 49.19% 21,253,110
Miscellaneous 11.0% 2.66% 1,150,000
Total Inital Costs 43,207,291
Cost Per MW 5,437,196
2.17% 2.60% 2.05%
41.33%
49.19%
2.66%
Feasibility study Development Engineering Power system Balance of system
& miscellaneous
Miscellaneous
Cost Summary
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
Delivery equipment
Road construction
Preparation equipment
Storage equipment
Distribution equipment
Clearing
Earth excavation
Rock excavation
Concrete dam
Earthfill dam
Dewatering
Spillway
Canal
Intake
Tunnel
Penstock
Powerhouse civil
Fishway
Building & yard construction
Spare parts
Transportation
Balance of system & miscellaneous
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Training & commissioning
Miscellaneous
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
40.00%
45.00%
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Axis Title
Initial costs (credits)
Estimated Project Cash Flows
Average Cost of Electricity (Rp/kWh) Rp/Kwh 656.0 Initial costs Rp 43,207,291
RE delivered MWh 7.95 Debt interest rate % 11%
Debt term Year 7.0
Annual energy delivered MWh 37,762 Term Depreciation Year 20.0
Debt ratio % 0.7 Salvage Value 0.10
Rp 30,245,103 Tax % 25
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Cash Out
Capital Costs
Feasibility study 936,200
Development 1,125,000
Engineering 885,000
Power system 17,857,981
Balance of system & miscellaneous 21,153,110
Miscellaneous - 1,150,000
Total Capital Costs 41,957,291 1,150,000 - - - - - - - - -
Operating Costs
Water retribution - - - - - - - - -
Fuel Transportation 1,625 1,625 1,625 1,625 1,625 1,625 1,625 1,625 1,625
Total Operating Costs - - 1,625 1,625 1,625 1,625 1,625 1,625 1,625 1,625 1,625
Plant Operating Costs
Wages & Benefits 1,200,000 1,200,000 1,200,000 1,200,000 1,200,000 1,200,000 1,200,000 1,200,000 1,200,000 1,200,000
Maintenance 60,000 60,000 60,000 60,000 60,000 60,000 60,000 60,000
Total Plant Operating Costs - 1,200,000 1,200,000 1,260,000 1,260,000 1,260,000 1,260,000 1,260,000 1,260,000 1,260,000 1,260,000
Debt Service
Interest 4,752,802 4,073,830 3,394,859 2,715,887 2,036,915 1,357,943 678,972
Principal Repayment 6,172,470 6,172,470 6,172,470 6,172,470 6,172,470 6,172,470 6,172,470
Total Debt Service - 6,172,470 10,925,272 10,246,300 9,567,329 8,888,357 8,209,385 7,530,414 678,972 - -
Depreciation 1,950,555 1,950,555 1,950,555 1,950,555 1,950,555 1,950,555 1,950,555 1,950,555 1,950,555 1,950,555
Total Cash Out 41,957,291 10,473,025 14,077,452 13,458,480 12,779,508 12,100,536 11,421,565 10,742,593 3,891,151 3,212,180 3,212,180
Cash In
Revenue
Firm Energy Revenue 17,340,449 24,772,070 24,772,070 24,772,070 24,772,070 24,772,070 24,772,070 24,772,070 24,772,070 24,772,070
Other Revenue
Total Revenue - 17,340,449 24,772,070 24,772,070 24,772,070 24,772,070 24,772,070 24,772,070 24,772,070 24,772,070 24,772,070
Total Cast In - 17,340,449 24,772,070 24,772,070 24,772,070 24,772,070 24,772,070 24,772,070 24,772,070 24,772,070 24,772,070
6
Net Before Tax Cash Flow (41,957,291) 6,867,425 10,694,619 11,313,590 11,992,562 12,671,534 13,350,505 14,029,477 20,880,919 21,559,891 21,559,891
Tax (Pajak Penghasilan ) - 1,716,856 2,673,655 2,828,398 2,998,141 3,167,883 3,337,626 3,507,369 5,220,230 5,389,973 5,389,973
Net After Tax Cash Flow (41,957,291) 5,150,568 8,020,964 8,485,193 8,994,422 9,503,650 10,012,879 10,522,108 15,660,689 16,169,918 16,169,918
(41,957,291) (36,806,722) (28,785,758) (20,300,566) (11,306,144) (1,802,494) 8,210,385 18,732,493 34,393,182 50,563,100 66,733,018
1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.18 - - - -
Internal Rate Return (IRR) = 18,03 Initial costs = Rp 43207300
Financial Feasibility
Initial costs (credits) 43,207,291 Hydraulic losses (Design) 2.55% 2% to 7%
RE delivered MW 7.95 Generator efficiency % 95 93% to 97%
Annual energy delivered MWh 37,762.30 Transformer losses % 1% to 2%
Water retribution Rp/KWh 0.00 Parasitic electricity losses % 1% to 3%
Average Cost of Electricity (Rp/kWh) Rp/KWh 656.00 Annual downtime losses % 40% to 90%
Nominal Electricity Escalation Rate % 0.00 Hydro plant capacity factor % 55.00 2% to 7%
Infation Rate % 6%
Discount Rate % 12.5%
Debt Term Year 7.00
Payback Period Year 5.18
Year To Positive Cash Flow Year to 6.00
Initial Cost to Energy Delivery Ratio Rp/MW 5,437,196
Operating Cost Rp/kW 0.33
Exchange Rate Rp/1USD 8,700.00
Debt interest rate 11%
Net Present Value (NPV) Rp (1.000,-) 54,001,910
Internal Rate Return (IRR) 18.02%
MRR 41,957,291
B/C 2.29
(60,000,000)
(40,000,000)
(20,000,000)
-
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Project Cumulative Cash Flow
Estimated Project Cash Flows
Risk Analysis for IRR and ROI
Rate -20% -10% 0% 10% 20%
Ratio 80% 90% 100% 110% 120%
Annual energy delivered to IRR 7.74% 12.17% 18.02% 20.32% 24.12%
Initial costs to IRR 24.14% 20.66% 18.02% 15.22% 13.02%
Debt interest rate to IRR 18.87% 18.45% 18.02% 17.60% 17.18%
Annual energy delivered to IRR 80% 90% 100% 110% 120%
Annual energy delivered -20% -10% 0% 10% 20%
IRR 7.74% 12.17% 18.02% 20.32% 24.12%
Initial costs to IRR 80% 90% 100% 110% 120%
Initial costs -20% -10% 0% 10% 20%
IRR 24.14% 20.66% 18.02% 15.22% 13.02%
Debt interest rate to IRR 80% 90% 100% 110% 120%
Debt interest rate -20% -10% 0% 10% 20%
IRR 18.87% 18.45% 18.02% 17.60% 17.18%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%
Risk Analysis for IRR and ROI
Annual energy delivered to IRR Initial costs to IRR Debt interest rate to IRR