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Population DA 1

7ws Michigan 09
Malthus DA
Malthus DA......................................................................................................................................................................................1
1NC..................................................................................................................................................................................................4
1NC..................................................................................................................................................................................................5
Uniqueness.......................................................................................................................................................................................6
UniquenessNo US Immigration...................................................................................................................................................7
UniquenessNo US Immigration...................................................................................................................................................8
UniquenessNo US Immigration...................................................................................................................................................
A!" N#U$%&losion's ()er...........................................................................................................................................................1*
+NC Im&a,t ()er)ie-....................................................................................................................................................................11
.tn/inear...................................................................................................................................................................................1+
!ime0rameShort !erm Im&a,t....................................................................................................................................................11
Immigration !urns the Case...........................................................................................................................................................14
Crun,h Coming..............................................................................................................................................................................15
Crun,h Coming..............................................................................................................................................................................16
Crun,h Coming..............................................................................................................................................................................17
Crun,h Coming..............................................................................................................................................................................18
Crun,h Coming..............................................................................................................................................................................1
/in2So,ial Ser)i,es....................................................................................................................................................................+*
/in2So,ial Ser)i,es....................................................................................................................................................................+1
/in2So,ial Ser)i,es....................................................................................................................................................................++
/in23o4s.....................................................................................................................................................................................+1
/in2a4ortion...............................................................................................................................................................................+4
/in2/egal Ser)i,es.....................................................................................................................................................................+5
/in2 5 Death Che,2.......................................................................................................................................................................+6
lin2 5 )oluntar6 0amil6 &lanning....................................................................................................................................................+7
lin2 5 )oluntar6 0amil6 &lanning....................................................................................................................................................+8
/in2s" 7eneri,................................................................................................................................................................................+
/in2s" 7eneri,................................................................................................................................................................................1*
/in2s" 8ealth Care.........................................................................................................................................................................11
/in2s" A4ortion..............................................................................................................................................................................1+
/in2s" $9u,ation............................................................................................................................................................................11
/in2s" :omen;s <ights..................................................................................................................................................................14
/in2s" 8omelessness......................................................................................................................................................................15
/in2s" Mari=uana............................................................................................................................................................................16
/in2s" >risons.................................................................................................................................................................................17
/in2s" Immigration.........................................................................................................................................................................18
/in2s" Immigration.........................................................................................................................................................................1
/in2s" Immigration.........................................................................................................................................................................4*
/in2s" $l9erl6.................................................................................................................................................................................41
/in2s" Nati)es................................................................................................................................................................................4+
/in2s" Nati)es................................................................................................................................................................................41
Internal /in2s.................................................................................................................................................................................44
Internal /in2s.................................................................................................................................................................................45
Im&a,ts 5 ()er&o&ulation 5 /aun9r6 /ist.....................................................................................................................................46
Im&a,ts7eneri,..........................................................................................................................................................................47
Im&a,ts7eneri,..........................................................................................................................................................................48
Im&a,ts7eneri,#/aun9r6 /ist.....................................................................................................................................................4
Im&a,ts 5 ()er&o&ulation 5 $%tin,tion.........................................................................................................................................5*
Im&a,ts 5 ()er&o&ulation 5 $%tin,tion.........................................................................................................................................51
Im&a,ts 5 ()er&o&ulation 5 $%tin,tion.........................................................................................................................................5+
Im&a,ts 5 ()er&o&ulation 5 $%tin,tion.........................................................................................................................................51
Im&a,ts" Agri,ulture.......................................................................................................................................................................54
Im&a,ts" Agri,ulture.......................................................................................................................................................................55
Population DA 2
7ws Michigan 09
Im&a,ts" ?io9i)ersit6.....................................................................................................................................................................56
Im&a,ts 5 ()er&o&ulation 5 <esour,e S,ar,it6.............................................................................................................................57
Im&a,ts 5 ()er&o&ulation 5 :ar....................................................................................................................................................58
Im&a,ts 5 ()er&o&ulation 5 -ar....................................................................................................................................................5
Im&a,ts 5 ()er&o&ulation 5 :ar....................................................................................................................................................6*
Im&a,ts 5 ()er&o&ulation 5 :ar....................................................................................................................................................61
Im&a,ts 5 ()er&o&ulation 5 :ar....................................................................................................................................................6+
Im&a,ts 5 ()er&o&ulation 5 :ar....................................................................................................................................................61
Im&a,ts 5 ()er&o&ulation 5 :ater :ars........................................................................................................................................64
Im&a,ts 5 ()er&o&ulation 5 :ater :ars........................................................................................................................................65
+NC :arming Im&a,t....................................................................................................................................................................66
+NC :arming Im&a,t....................................................................................................................................................................67
Im&a,ts 5 ()er&o&ulation 5 $n)ironment.....................................................................................................................................68
Im&a,ts 5 ()er&o&ulation 5 $n)ironment.....................................................................................................................................6
Im&a,ts 5 ()er&o&ulation 5 $n)ironment.....................................................................................................................................7*
Im&a,ts 5 ()er&o&ulation 5 $,o,i9e.............................................................................................................................................71
Im&a,ts 5 ()er&o&ulation 5 $,o,i9e.............................................................................................................................................7+
Im&a,ts 5 ()er&o&ulation 5 $,o,i9e.............................................................................................................................................71
Im&a,ts 5 ()er&o&ulation 5 $,o,i9e.............................................................................................................................................74
Im&a,ts 5 ()er&o&ulation 5 ?io9i)ersit6......................................................................................................................................75
Im&a,ts 5 ()er&o&ulation 5 ?io9i)ersit6......................................................................................................................................76
Im&a,ts" De0orestation...................................................................................................................................................................77
Im&a,ts" Demo,ra,6.......................................................................................................................................................................78
Im&a,ts" Disease.............................................................................................................................................................................7
Im&a,ts" 7eno,i9e..........................................................................................................................................................................8*
Im&a,ts" 8uman <ights..................................................................................................................................................................81
Im&a,ts" Moral (4ligation.............................................................................................................................................................8+
Im&a,ts" (il De&letion...................................................................................................................................................................81
Im&a,ts" >o-er :ars......................................................................................................................................................................84
Im&a,ts" <esour,e :ars.................................................................................................................................................................85
Im&a,ts" Soil $rosion.....................................................................................................................................................................86
Im&a,ts" Star)ation.........................................................................................................................................................................87
Im&a,ts" :ater :ars.......................................................................................................................................................................88
>o&ulation Im&a,ts are >rerequisite...............................................................................................................................................8
!urns Case>o)ert6.....................................................................................................................................................................*
>o&ulation De,rease @e6...............................................................................................................................................................1
>o&ulation De,rease @e6...............................................................................................................................................................+
>o&ulation De,rease @e6...............................................................................................................................................................1
+NCUS @e6 :all.......................................................................................................................................................................4
+NC US @e6 :all..........................................................................................................................................................................5
+NC US @e6 :all..........................................................................................................................................................................6
+NC US @e6 :all..........................................................................................................................................................................7
.tnUS @e6.................................................................................................................................................................................8
.tnAUS @e6....................................................................................................................................................................................
A!" 7lo4al (&o& ()er-helms.....................................................................................................................................................1**
Carr6ing Ca&a,it6 /imite9...........................................................................................................................................................1*1
A!" &o&ulation gro-s logisti,all6................................................................................................................................................1*+
A!" <esour,e inno)ation#te,h sol)es...........................................................................................................................................1*1
+NC 5 A!" Moralit6......................................................................................................................................................................1*4
+NC 5 A!" Moralit6......................................................................................................................................................................1*5
.tnMoralit6..............................................................................................................................................................................1*6
.tnMoralit6..............................................................................................................................................................................1*7
.tnMoralit6..............................................................................................................................................................................1*8
.tnMoralit6..............................................................................................................................................................................1*
$hrli,h Buali0ie9..........................................................................................................................................................................11*
A!" >o&ulation >re9i,tions :rong...............................................................................................................................................111
A!" Mar2ets A9a&t.......................................................................................................................................................................11+
Population DA 3
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A!" Author In9i,ts#A00 authors 4a9..............................................................................................................................................111
A!" Un9er&o&ulation ?a9.............................................................................................................................................................114
A!" ()er&o&ulation 7oo9............................................................................................................................................................115
A!" Carr6ing Ca&a,it6 Doesn;t $%ist...........................................................................................................................................116
A!" <esour,e Shortages 7oo9......................................................................................................................................................117
A!" !e,h sol)es.............................................................................................................................................................................118
A!" !e,h Sol)es............................................................................................................................................................................11
A!" !e,h Sol)es............................................................................................................................................................................1+*
A!" :e Can In,rease Coo9 >ro9u,tion........................................................................................................................................1+1
A!" Dour (ther DA is a Dou4le !urn...........................................................................................................................................1++
!8$ ACC ANS:$<S..................................................................................................................................................................1+1
A00irmati)e+AC Ans-ers.........................................................................................................................................................1+4
A00irmati)e+AC Ans-ers.........................................................................................................................................................1+5
(&o& Ine)ita4le............................................................................................................................................................................1+6
(&o& Ine)ita4le............................................................................................................................................................................1+7
No Carr6ing Ca&a,it6..................................................................................................................................................................1+8
A9a&tation Sol)es........................................................................................................................................................................1+
A!" (&o& Im&a,t..........................................................................................................................................................................11*
A!" (&o& Im&a,t..........................................................................................................................................................................111
Malthus Immoral..........................................................................................................................................................................11+
>o&ulation >re9i,tions ?a9..........................................................................................................................................................111
No <esour,e Shortages................................................................................................................................................................114
No <esour,e Shortages................................................................................................................................................................115
No <esour,e Shortages................................................................................................................................................................116
$hrli,h E n**4..............................................................................................................................................................................117
Mar2et Sol)es...............................................................................................................................................................................118
>o&ulation 7ro-th 7oo9Disease.............................................................................................................................................11
>o&ulation 7ro-th 7oo9In0rastru,ture....................................................................................................................................14*
>o&ulation 7ro-th 7oo9S,ar,it6............................................................................................................................................141
>o&ulation 7ro-th 7oo9>ollution#$n)ironment.....................................................................................................................14+
Un9er&o&ulation ?a9US..........................................................................................................................................................141
Un9er&o&ulation ?a9$,on.......................................................................................................................................................144
Un9er&o&ulation ?a9$,on.......................................................................................................................................................145
Un9er&o&ulation ?a98eg.........................................................................................................................................................146
Un9er&o&ulation ?a9Com&etiti)eness.....................................................................................................................................147
Un9er&o&ulation ?a9In)estor Con0i9en,e...............................................................................................................................148
Un9er&o&ulation ?a9A9)enturism#:ar...................................................................................................................................14
+AC Immigration !urn.................................................................................................................................................................15*
A!" Immigration /in2s.................................................................................................................................................................151
A!" Immigration ?a9....................................................................................................................................................................15+
A!" Immigration ?a9....................................................................................................................................................................154
At" !urns Caseo&o& F &o)ert6................................................................................................................................................155
1NC
A. immigration is at a low multiple studies confrm
WASHINGTN TI!"S 1# 3 #$ [Flow of illegals into U.S. slows;Decrease seen amid
crackdown, http://www.lexisnexis.com]
Illegal immigration a&&ears to ha)e 0allen last 6ear, mar2ing the 0irst 9ro& in 6ears and coinciding with ongress! fail"re to
pass a legali#ation $ill and the %"sh administration!s stepped&"p raids and enforcement. In a stu96 release9 'h"rsda(, the >e-
8is&ani, Center estimates that the illegal immigrant &o&ulation 0ell 46 5**G*** from )*.+ million in ,arch *--. to ))./
million this 6ear. 'he st"d(!s a"thors ca"tion that the 0nding is 1inconcl"si2e1 $eca"se of the margin of error of the estimates, altho"gh the
0ndings mirror those of the enter for 3mmigration St"dies, which also estimated a drop in illegal immigration. !he De&artment o0
8omelan9 Se,urit6 also sai9 it has seen e)i9en,e that the 0lo- o0 illegal immigrants is sla,2ing o00 as -ell. 13n the
histor( of law enforcement, there has ne2er $een #ero crime, $"t $oth the stead( decrease in illegal crossings at the so"thwest $order and the
"nfort"nate increase in 2iolence against o"r agents tell "s that o"r post"re is working,1 4omeland Sec"rit( spokeswoman 5a"ra 6eehner said.
!he >e- stu96, which "sed U.S. ens"s %"rea" statistics, sa6s there ,oul9 4e man6 reasons 0or the 9ro&" a slo-9o-n in
U.S. e,onomi, gro-th that has 9rie9 u& o&&ortunities 0or illegal -or2ersG e,onomi, gro-th in /atin Ameri,an
,ountries that has 2e&t some -or2ers at home an9 heightene9 en0or,ement in the U.S. Illegal immigration 0rom
Me%i,o, which acco"nts for m"ch more than half of the U.S. illegal immigrant pop"lation, a&&ears to ha)e stalle9G -hile illegal
immigration 0rom the rest o0 /atin Ameri,a a&&ears to ha)e 9e,line9 su4stantiall6. 1'his recent decline is $orne o"t $(
other %"rea" of 5a$or Statistics data, cited in a recent ann"al 7ew 4ispanic enter report, indicating that the n"m$er of foreign&$orn So"th
8mericans in the U.S. work force declined in the 0rst 9"arter of *--: compared with *--.,1 the 7ew st"d( said. Ste2en 8. CamarotaG
resear,h 9ire,tor 0or the Center 0or Immigration Stu9iesG sai9 his o-n stu96 sho-e9 the 9ro& 4egan e)en 4e0ore a
s&i2e in unem&lo6ment among the a&&arent illegalAalien &o&ulation, suggesting that en0or,ement 9i9 &la6 a role. 1;e
all agree that something has changed. Incentives changed and the flow changed," he said.
%. Insert specifc lin&
1NC
'opulation growt( e)ploits natural resources* destro+s t(e en,ironment* increases
terrorism* and increase mass migration spurring c(aos worldwide
-assils Director of the pop"lation instit"te of anada < 2##. =>. 8nthon(,
?@2erpop"lation, S"staina$le De2elopment, and Sec"rit(: De2eloping an 3ntegrated
Strateg(,A 7op"lation and Bn2ironment, >an"ar(C
7op"lation growth contri$"tes to congestion, poll"tion, and the o2erexploitation of nat"ral
reso"rces, there$( red"cing the freedoms of indi2id"als in democratic co"ntries.
Bn2ironmental degradation adds to the sense of personal 2"lnera$ilit( with a growing
n"m$er of incidents, s"ch as respirator( and gastrointestinal diseases and ne"ral damage,
res"lting from air poll"tion and contamination of fresh water $( poll"tion and toxic waste.
onfronted with the growing threats posed $( o2erpop"lation and accelerating scarcit(, an almost immediate response is to aDirm h"man
rights. 4owe2er, this 2er( aDirmation Eies in the face of realit( if it ignores the en2ironmental deterioration that makes it increasingl( diDic"lt
if not impossi$le to f"l0ll these rights.
'he proFected rapid growth of pop"lation, most of it in the poorest regions of the Barth,
will exacer$ate regional disparities, f"el resentment, and possi$l( gi2e rise to more
terrorism. ,an( of the poor will tr( to migrate to more prospero"s co"ntries which will
resist more acti2el( what might easil( $ecome an "ncontrolled in2asion. ,ass migration is a
phenomenon closel( associated with the h"man expansion o2er the past ten tho"sand (ears. 3t is tied to the instinct of the h"nter&gatherer
that if food $ecomes scarce in one region, pop"lation migrates to a region of greater a$"ndance. 4owe2er, in an o2ercrowded world this does
not work. ,ass migration merel( spreads chaos and miser( thro"gho"t the glo$e. 8 profo"nd change
is needed. 'he era of mass migration is coming to an end. 3t is impossi$le that e2en a signi0cant proportion of the c"rrent glo$al ann"al
pop"lation expansion of a$o"t se2ent(&nine million a (ear =7op"lation Geference %"rea", *--HC, almost all of which is occ"rring in
"nde2eloped nations, co"ld $e incorporated into de2eloped nations. ,oreo2er, were this to $e attempted, it wo"ld o2erload the worldIs car$on
sinks e2en more disastro"sl( than is occ"rring at present. ,ost of the de2eloped nations are alread( hea2il( pop"lated and m"ch of their
prosperit( depends on a$"ndant energ( which ma( $ecome m"ch more expensi2e sooner than most people expect.
")tinction
%rown* #/ professor of ph(siolog( at ;est Jirginia Uni2ersit( =7a"l, Kotes from a D(ing
7lanet, p. H&+C
'he threats we face stem from o2erpop"lation and en2ironmental degradation. 'he
res"lting climate change and mass extinctions are leading to ecological collapse, in which the
once&ro$"st tapestr( of interrelationships among li2ing creat"res, climate, and o"r ph(sical en2ironment has $een weakened and is starting to "nra2el. linical
indicators of o"r planetIs serio"s illness are ill"strated in the graph. 3I2e adF"sted the 2ertical scales for pop"lation, car$on dioxide =@*C, methane, temperat"re, and
extinction of species per (ear so the( all ha2e a common minim"m and maxim"m. 8ll the minima occ"rred tens of tho"sands of (ears %, and all the maxima are now.
'he state of the Barth toda( is "ni9"e. ;eIre cons"ming the worldIs reso"rces faster than the( can $e
restored. 'he worldIs pop"lation is now do"$ling in less than 0ft( (ears. 8ro"nd mid&
cent"r( the worldIs pop"lation is expected to le2el oD at eight to twel2e $illion people. 'he
lower n"m$er is far too high: pop"lation m"st start to decline $efore *-L- if we are to
s"r2i2e. 'he "pper limit, to p"t it simpl(, will ne2er $e reached $eca"se we would all die
frst.%eca"se of pop"lation growth and increasing cons"mption, concentrations of
greenho"se gases s"ch as car$on dioxide and methane in o"r atmosphere are the highest
in h"man histor(, as are glo$al temperat"res. 'his is not normal climatic E"ct"ation, as
fossil&f"el ind"str( shills wo"ld ha2e (o" $elie2e. 'he rate of species extinctions is
compara$le to mass extinctions that ha2e occ"rred onl( 02e times $efore, and is likel( to
exceed those. 'he total decline of species since the 3nd"strial Ge2ol"tion will soon $e worse than the mass extinction ca"sed $( the asteroid impact sixt(&
02e million (ears ago oD the M"catan penins"la, which wiped o"t :HN of species incl"ding the dinosa"rs. %efore we came along, species e2ol2ed and went extinct for
$illions of (ears, creating and 0lling a di2ersit( of ecological niches. @rganisms "sed energ( from the s"n to grow and reprod"ce, rec(cling the materials needed for
life thro"gh an interdependent worldwide ecos(stem. ,echanisms existed to maintain ecological sta$ilit(, ens"ring that the en2ironment didnIt change too fast for
e2ol"tion to keep "p. @"r $iosphere reco2ered from calamito"s e2ents like asteroid collisions, e2en tho"gh onl( a minorit( of species made it thro"gh some of those
catastrophes. 'oda(Is ongoing catastrophe ma( eliminate all $"t the smallest and simplest of life
forms. @"r species has Eo"rished, $"t witho"t reali#ing it weI2e changed o"r en2ironment
too 0ast 0or ot(er species to adapt . 8 s(stemIs sta$ilit( can onl( $e eroded so far, after
which it $ecomes "nsta$le. ;eIre approaching a point where the worldIs ecos(stem will
change too fast e2en for "s to adapt. ;e will $ecome extinct. 3tIs alread( too late for "s to
ret"rn to the world as we fo"nd it or e2en as it was ten (ears ago. ;eI2e wiped o"t too
man( species. %"t we can protect the remaining fragile sta$ilit(. 3n a word, we m"st seek
s"staina$ilit(, which means cons"ming reso"rces onl( as fast as the(Ire replenished. 8ll
the trends on o"r graph ha2e to $e re2ersed, "ntil the(Ire all $ack to pre&ind"strial le2els
or lower. 'his doesnIt mean ret"rning to a pre&ind"strial 9"alit( of life < in fact, we sho"ld
all $e a$le to li2e m"ch $etter once there are fewer of "s. %"t we ha2e to take eDecti2e
action 2er( soon, $efore itIs too late.
Uniqueness
'opulation is on a stead+ decline now a 1oost is needed 0or economic sta1ilit+
Weyrich 03 ='he Underpop"lation 7ro$lem;Kewsmax.com; 7a"l ;e(rich co& fo"nder of the 4eritage
Fo"ndation; http://archi2e.newsmax.com/archi2es/articles/*--H/./)+/**-:-).shtmlC
'his was all nonsense. :e ha)e no &o&ulation &ro4lem. ;e might ha2e, as Oeorge ;ill p"t it, a pop"lation distri$"tion pro$lem,
$eca"se people po"red o"t of the r"ral areas in fa2or of large cities. %"t, as the United States has demonstrated, we ha2e the reso"rces to
feed m"ch of the world, and o"r increased prod"cti2it( has permitted "s to do so on e2er&decreasing areas of farmland. 3n the )/.-s,
respected energ( anal(sts told "s that we were going to r"n o"t of oil and other fossil f"els in a$o"t )L (ears. Kow we know $etter. B2en if we
contin"e to cons"me oil and nat"ral gas at an e2er&increasing pace, there is eno"gh to accommodate e2er(one for all of this cent"r( and wa(
$e(ond. 'here is e2en more coal, if the en2ironmentalists wo"ld let "s $"rn it, and n"clear energ( oDers essentiall( limitless energ( fore2er.
(ur greatest resour,e is &eo&le. 'he 7ost, which $ack then was s(mpathetic to the pop"lation controllers,
now is concerned $eca"se o"r $irthrate is $elow the replacement le2el for the 0rst time in o"r
histor(. @f co"rse, in B"rope and >apan, the sit"ation is so drastic that it is literall( possi$le to chart
the disappearance of some of the wealthier nations a few generations from now. 'he 7ost notes that
1,ountries -ith shrin2ing &o&ulations ma6 stagnate e,onomi,all6G intelle,tuall6 an9 militaril6. I0 0uture generations are to ,arr6
on the Ameri,an )i4ran,6 an9 96namismG the ,ountr6 must 4e &re&are9 to em4ra,e more 4a4iesG an9 more a9ults 0rom aroun9
the -orl9.H
2S 'opulation low
Monbiot 04='he Underpop"lation 7ro$lem; Oeorge ,on$iot is the a"thor of 4eat: 4ow to Stop the
7lanet from %"rning; http://www.alternet.org/stor(/)::H*/theP"nderpop"lationPpro$lem/C
For all these reasons, we co"ld $e expected to welcome the extraordinar( news that, for the 0rst
time in histor(, witho"t the help of plag"es, wars or famines, the h"man pop"lation is expected soon
to start declining. Demographers now predict that o"r n"m$ers will peak at a$o"t nine $illion in
*-.-, and then $egin to fall. ,ost of the richer nations will top o"t long $efore then. <ussia's &o&ulation
is alrea96 9-in9lingI i0 it -eren't 0or immigrationG Ital6 -oul9 4e in the same &osition. 3a&an -ill start to shrin2 0rom ne%t 6ear
on-ar9sI ?ritain -on't 4e 0ar 4ehin9. $uro&e's &o&ulation -ill 0all 4J 46 +*+5. !he US -ill 2ee& gro-ing 0or a little longerG
then 0ollo- the rest o0 us. 'he real s"rprise is that the poorer nations are likel( to go the same wa(.
o"ntries like hina, ,exico, 8lgeria and 3ran are ageing e2en faster than we are. B2en so, $eca"se
we are so m"ch older alread(, it is the rich nations which will shrink 0rst. ;h( is this happeningQ
7artl( $eca"se women now ha2e $etter options than s9"ee#ing o"t as man( $a$ies as the( can
$efore the( collapse into a premat"re old age. 7artl( $eca"se "r$anisation means that children are
no longer re9"ired to work in the 0elds. 8nd partl( $eca"se, in the rich world, the( cost a fort"ne to
$ring "p: a report p"$lished ten da(s ago s"ggested that %ritish children cost an a2erage of po"nds
)R+,---. So as -e age more -e s&rog lessG an9 the result -ill 4e a smaller an9 ol9er -orl9. An9 thisG surel6G is -hat all those
-ho -ant some le4ensraum -ithout the rei,h ha)e 4een -aiting 0or" an un0or,e9G gentle 9e,line o0 the seething massesG -hi,h
-ill lea)e the sur)i)ors -ith more e,ologi,al an9 so,ial s&a,e. ;ell the writer 7hilip 5ongman isn!t among them.
4is forthcoming $ook, 'he Bmpt( radle, which he s"mmarises in this month!s Foreign 8Dairs,
proposes that 9emogra&hi, 9e,line is a 9isaster. 5ongman makes the point, which can scarcel( $e denied,
that as a pop"lation ages it $ecomes less capa$le of s"pporting itself. 'he US and B"rope are
alread( $eing s"cked into the ine2ita$le pensions crisis. In 7erman6 the state no- s&en9s 14J o0 its 7D> on
&ensions an9 health,are 0or the el9erl6" this -ill gro- to +4J 46 +*4*. 7eneral Motors alrea96 has t-o an9 a hal0 times as
man6 &ensioners as -or2ersG an9 a &ension short0all o0 K1 4illion. !he IMC has -arne9 the Unite9 States that the ga& 4et-een
its anti,i&ate9 ta% re)enues an9 anti,i&ate9 4ene0it &a6ments amounts to 0i)e times its 7D>.
UniquenessNo US Immigration
illegal immigration is low
A. t(e econom+ means it will remain low
-ara0ano. 123143#$. senior research fellow in national sec"rit( iss"es at 'he 4eritage
Fo"ndation. [>ames >a( arafano, ?Don!t o"nt on Bconom( 'o Stop 3llegal 3mmigrants.A
(ttp566www.(eritage.org6press6commentar+6ed1214#$1.c0m7
'he( are lea2ing. 3llegal immigrants, that is.
8nal(sts from $oth ends of the immigration de$ate, from the enter for 3mmigration St"dies to the
7ew 4ispanic enter, agree. 'he 1"nlawf"ll( present1 pop"lation in the United States has shr"nk S
and it!s getting smaller.
8ccording to 7ew, there has $een a drop in the ann"al Eow of people illegall( entering the co"ntr(
since *--L. 8nd the n"m$ers of those alread( here is going down. 3t peaked at )*.+ million in *--R
and is down $( a$o"t ) million now.
;hat the anal(sts don!t agree on is wh(. Oood eno"gh data simpl( aren!t a2aila$le to answer the
9"estion. 'here are a n"m$er of possi$ilities, tho"gh.
3t co"ld $e simple economics, with fewer Fo$s translating into fewer illegal immigrants. 4istoricall(,
whene2er the U.S. econom( has shr"nk, fewer workers risk coming north to seek emplo(ment. 'he(
0nd economic opport"nities at home or migrate to alternate destinations.
%. lac& o0 8o1s
")aminer.com /3193#: [8"relia Fierros, 58 %order and 3mmigration Bxaminer >"ne )., *--/
http://www.examiner.com/x&/*.-&58&%order&and&3mmigration&BxaminerT(*--/mRd).&USD&
$order&apprehensions&decrease&not&related&to&enforcement&strateg(] >4
;ashington D.. & 'he Department of 4omeland Sec"rit( released a report this week showing that
apprehensions of "ndoc"mented immigrants at the U.S.&,exico $order are at their lowest le2el
since )/.H, lea2ing man( o$ser2ers contemplating the factors responsi$le for this decline. 3s it the
recession&plag"ed U.S. econom( or $eefed&"p enforcement eDortsQ Kew data from a research team
led $( ;a(ne orneli"s, Director of the enter for omparati2e 3mmigration St"dies at the
Uni2ersit( of alifornia, San Diego, sheds light on the decline in apprehensions and re2eals the
s"rprising, "nintended conse9"ences of $order enforcement. 8ccording to +,-)* inter2iews
cond"cted with migrants and prospecti2e migrants in ,exico, alifornia, and @klahoma $etween
*--L and *--/, the dr(ing "p of the U.S. Fo$ market, co"pled with the high personal and 0nancial
costs of migration, are slowing the pace of "ndoc"mented migration from ,exico. 8t the same time,
"ndoc"mented immigrants alread( here are sta(ing p"t d"e to the high costs and ph(sical risks of
$eing sm"ggled $ack into the United States, fear of losing their U.S. Fo$s, and lack of economic
opport"nities in ,exico. 'he data re2eals that, ironicall(, enhanced $order sec"rit( has created
1red"ced circ"larit( in migration1& essentiall( locking migrants in the United States as the prospect
of going home and ret"rning later has $ecome increasingl( expensi2e and dangero"s. 'he new
research cond"cted $( orneli"s! team indicates that the condition of the U.S. econom( is far more
signi0cant in explaining the recent decline in $order apprehensions than an( of the enforcement&
onl( meas"res that ha2e $een implemented to date. %order&enforcement eDorts will contin"e to $e
largel( ineDect"al "ntil the U.S. immigration s(stem is $ro"ght into line with the "ps and downs of
U.S. la$or demand, which dri2es so m"ch of "ndoc"mented immigration in the 0rst place.
Bnforcement is not a s"$stit"te for reform.
UniquenessNo US Immigration
-. !e)ican census data pro,es
'reston 431.3#: Kational 3mmigration Geporter for 'he Kew Mork 'imes
[(ttp566www.n+times.com62##:6#46146us614immig.(tml;<r=1>pagewanted=print
?,exican Data Show ,igration to U.S in Decline. Kew Mork 'imes]
,BU3853, ,exico S ens"s data from the ,exican go2ernment indicate an extraordinar( decline
in the n"m$er of ,exican immigrants going to the United States.
'he recentl( released data show that a$o"t **R,--- fewer people emigrated from ,exico to other
co"ntries d"ring the (ear that ended in 8"g"st *--: than d"ring the pre2io"s (ear, a decline of *L
percent. 8ll $"t a 2er( small fraction of emigration, $oth legal and illegal, from ,exico is to the
United States.
%eca"se of s"rging immigration, the ,exican&$orn pop"lation in the United States has grown
steepl( (ear after (ear since the earl( )//-s, dipping $rieE( onl( after the attacks of Sept. )),
*--), cens"s data in $oth co"ntries show.
,exican and 8merican researchers sa( that the c"rrent decline, which has also $een manifested in
a decrease in arrests along the $order, is largel( a res"lt of ,exicansI deciding to dela( illegal
crossings $eca"se of the lack of Fo$s in the ailing 8merican econom(.
'he trend emerged clearl( with the onset of the recession and, demographers sa(, pro2ides new
e2idence that illegal immigrants from ,exico, $( far the $iggest so"rce of "na"thori#ed migration
to the United States, are drawn $( Fo$s and respond to a sinking la$or market $( sta(ing awa(.
?3f Fo$s are a2aila$le, people come,A said >eDre( S. 7assel, senior demographer at the 7ew 4ispanic
enter, a nonpartisan research gro"p in ;ashington. ?3f Fo$s are not a2aila$le, people donIt come.A
?. ?own 0or multiple reasons 3 1order patrol pro,es
Aurelia @ierros #: AA %order and Immigration ")aminer. . [http://www.examiner.com/x&/*.-&
58&%order&and&3mmigration&BxaminerT(*--/mRd).&USD&$order&apprehensions&decrease&not&
related&to&enforcement&strateg(. ?USD: %order 8pprehensionsI Decrease not related to
Bnforcement Strateg(.A]
;ashington D.. & 'he Department of 4omeland Sec"rit( released a report this week showing that
apprehensions of "ndoc"mented immigrants at the U.S.&,exico $order are at their lowest le2el
since )/.H, lea2ing man( o$ser2ers contemplating the factors responsi$le for this decline. 3s it the
recession&plag"ed U.S. econom( or $eefed&"p enforcement eDortsQ Kew data from a research team
led $( ;a(ne orneli"s, Director of the enter for omparati2e 3mmigration St"dies at the
Uni2ersit( of alifornia, San Diego, sheds light on the decline in apprehensions and re2eals the
s"rprising, "nintended conse9"ences of $order enforcement. 8ccording to +,-)* inter2iews
cond"cted with migrants and prospecti2e migrants in ,exico, alifornia, and @klahoma $etween
*--L and *--/, the dr(ing "p of the U.S. Fo$ market, co"pled with the high personal and 0nancial
costs of migration, are slowing the pace of "ndoc"mented migration from ,exico. 8t the same time,
"ndoc"mented immigrants alread( here are sta(ing p"t d"e to the high costs and ph(sical risks of
$eing sm"ggled $ack into the United States, fear of losing their U.S. Fo$s, and lack of economic
opport"nities in ,exico. 'he data re2eals that, ironicall(, enhanced $order sec"rit( has created
1red"ced circ"larit( in migration1& essentiall( locking migrants in the United States as the prospect
of going home and ret"rning later has $ecome increasingl( expensi2e and dangero"s. 'he new
research cond"cted $( orneli"s! team indicates that the condition of the U.S. econom( is far more
signi0cant in explaining the recent decline in $order apprehensions than an( of the enforcement&
onl( meas"res that ha2e $een implemented to date. %order&enforcement eDorts will contin"e to $e
largel( ineDect"al "ntil the U.S. immigration s(stem is $ro"ght into line with the "ps and downs of
U.S. la$or demand, which dri2es so m"ch of "ndoc"mented immigration in the 0rst place.
Bnforcement is not a s"$stit"te for reform.
UniquenessNo US Immigration
". @igures pro,e
Hsu 43213#: Was(ington 'ost StaB Writer [Spenser S. 4s",
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp&d(n/content/article/*--//-L/*-/8G*--/-L*--HR++.html
?8rrests on So"thern %order DropA ;ashington 7ost]
'he n"m$er of arrests at the U.S.&,exico $order has dropped *. percent this (ear, a decline that
co"ld p"t the 0g"re at its lowest le2el since the earl( )/.-s, federal oDicials said (esterda(. 'he
decline accelerates a three&(ear&old trend that experts attri$"te to the economic downt"rn, with
stronger U.S. immigration enforcement meas"res also pla(ing a role.
AT: N/UExplosion's Over
T(e population e)plosion isnCt o,er we canCt let our guard down
"(rlic( > "(rlic( #. =7a"l G., %ing 7rofessor of 7op"lation St"dies and 7rofessor of
%iological Sciences at Stanford Uni2ersit(, 8nne 4. Bhrlich, Senior Gesearch 8ssociate in
the Department of %iological Sciences of Stanford Uni2ersit(, ?@ne with Kine2ehA p. :HC
Man6 Ameri,ans a&&arentl6 ha)e 4een lulle9 46 ,ontrar6 ,laims into 4elie)ing that the &o&ulation e%&losion is o)erG or that
0urther gro-th 9oesn;t matter. Mo" wo"ld ne2er know $( reading the newspapers or watching
tele2ision toda( that the n"m$ers of people will greatl( aDect o"r own and o"r childrenIs
f"t"res. @ddl(, the a$sence of pop"lation iss"es from p"$lic disco"rse has led to a fail"re
to recogni#e those rather momento"s positi2e changes in the pop"lation sit"ation that
ha2e occ"rred in the past decade or so. Gemem$er, onl( a few decades ago, the glo$al
pop"lation was expanding at * percent or more per (ear, a rate that wo"ld do"$le it in
thirt(&02e (ears or less, with no indication of an( slowdown. 8nd it did do"$le in fort(
(ears. ?ut no- there are ,lear signs o0 a slo-9o-n in most regionsG although serious questions remain a4out the -orl9;s
a4ilit6 to 2ee& on &ro9u,ing enough 0oo9 an9 other-ise &ro)i9e 0or an e)erAin,reasing num4er o0 &eo&le 5 questions o0 so,ial
sur)i)al that are still )er6 rele)ant.
",en i0 t(e population e)plosion is ending* our impacts will still occur i0 current
population is maintained
"(rlic( > "(rlic( #. =7a"l G., %ing 7rofessor of %iological Science at Stanford and 8nne
4., associate director and polic( coordinator of the enter for onser2ation %iolog( at
Stanford Uni2ersit(, ?@ne with Kine2ehA p. *-)C
!he &ros&e,ti)e en9 o0 the &o&ulation e%&losion is wonderf"l news, $"t those still&expected additions 9o
not 4o9e at all -ell 0or ,i)iliLation;s longAterm sustaina4ilit6 an9 the ,han,es o0 the &oor 4eing li0te9 out o0 &o)ert6G
especiall( if per capita cons"mption contin"es to grow among the alread( well&oD. 8s
things are toda(, e2en -ithout an6 0urther in,rease in -orl9 &o&ulationG i0 e)er6 &erson in the -orl9 -ere to start
,onsuming as Ameri,ans 9oG humanit6 -oul9 require the resour,es o0 at least t-o a99itional &lane $arths to su&&ort it. 8s
,athis ;ackernagel and ;illiam Gees concl"ded, ?Unfort"natel(, good planets are hard to
0nd.A 3n this context, itIs important to recogni#e that adding ).L $illion people in 0ft( (ears
wo"ld $e in0nitel( $etter than adding + $illion more =the diDerence is larger than the
entire world pop"lation of )/L-C. ;hich n"m$er t"rns o"t to $e closer to the one act"all(
reached will largel( depend on pop"lation policies the United States and other nations
adopt. Sadl(, most o0 the ,ountries -ith the most ra&i9 &o&ulation gro-th are among the &oorestG least 9e)elo&e9G an9
least a4le to su&&ort massi)e a99itions to their &o&ulations. 'he( are also therefore the most in need of
famil( planning assistance. 8nd Ameri,ans, pro$a$l( the chief contri$"tors to the pop"lation&
cons"mption pro$lem, $roadl( de0ned, seem most o4li)ious to the &otentiall6 massi)e threat &ose9 46
in,reasing num4ers o0 &eo&le.
2NC Impact Overview
T(e crunc( outweig(s and turns t(e case5
a. !agnitude T(e onl+ internal lin& to e)tinction is wars o,er resources t(at
access collapse o0 rationalit+. Also* t(e crunc( would cause depletion o0 0ood*
causing star,ation.
1. ?e0ault to larger magnitude impacts eac( person +ou let die now means 1#
people are sa,ed in t(e crunc(
"(rlic(* 9. <7rofessor of %iolog( at Stanford Uni2ersit(&)/.+ = 7a"l >"ne )R
th
'he Kew
Mork 'imesC
F"rthermore, there are other pernicio"s fallacies in the ?what we as 8mericans can do a$o"t the world pop"lation programA game. 5etIs start
with a fallac( that the a"thors helped to create&the idea that we might s"ccessf"ll( press"re go2ernments of de2eloping co"ntries into
la"nching eDecti2e pop"lation control programs. 3n the 0rst edition of o"r $ook ?'he 7op"lation %om$,A it was s"ggested that the United
States tr( to "se its food aid as a le2er to get recalcitrant go2ernments mo2ing on pop"lation control programs. 'he logic then = as toda(C was
impecca$le. 3f (o" del"ded people into thinking that either the U.S co"ld = or wo"ldC s"ppl(
food in perpet"it( for an( n"m$er of people, (o" were doing e2il. Sooner or later,
pop"alation growth wo"ld completel( o"tstrip the capacit( of the United States or an(
other nation to s"ppl( food. For e2er( ),--- people sa2ed toda(, perhaps )-,--- wo"ld die
when the cr"nch came. Simpl( sending food to h"ngr( nations with pop"lation explosions is analogo"s to a ph(sician prescri$ing
aspirin as a treatment for a patient with opera$le cancer&in deferring something "npleasant, disaster is entrained. Mes, send some good& $"t
insist that pop"lation control meas"re $e instit"ted. %"t despite the logic, no one in the U.S. Oo2ernment paid the slightest heed to that
s"ggestion = or to related proposals $( ;illiam and 7a"l 7addock in their )/R: $ook, ?Famine&)/.LVAC , and the point is now moot, since we
ha2e no more s"rpl"s food.
c. !oralit+ +ou (a,e an o1ligation to protect 0uture generations o,er current
ones 1ecause 0uture generations donCt (a,e a ,oice now. Dote neg to gi,e
(umanit+ a c(ance.
d. T(e crunc( is coming wit(in our li0etime
-arr+ing -apacit+ Networ&* #.& Ko2em$er *--+
=http://www.carr(ingcapacit(.org/-+aaL.htmlC
<ea9ers o0 the latest )ersion o0 /imits -ill 0in9 some grim ,on,lusions" !he human 4ur9en on the natural
en)ironment is alrea96 a4o)e sustaina4le le)elsG an9 i0 a &ro0oun9 ,orre,tion is not ma9e soonG a ,rash o0 some sort
is ,ertain to o,,ur -ithin the li0etimes o0 man6 -ho are ali)e to9a6. Alarming 0a,ts an9 statisti,s &aint a &i,ture o0 a
&lanet in &eril" Ma=or an9 -i9es&rea9 ,limate ,hanges ha)e o,,urre9 -ith startling s&ee9. <oughl6 hal0 the north
Atlanti, -arming sin,e last i,e age -as a,hie)e9 in onl6 a 9e,a9eI !he -orl9 is 0a,ing -i9es&rea9 shortages o0
our least su4stituta4le an9 most essential resour,e 5 &ota4le -ater. 7roun9-ater sour,es are 4eing 9e&lete9 0aster
than the6 ,an re,harge on e)er6 ,ontinent e%,e&t Antar,ti,aI !he -orl9's large -ater 4o9ies ,ontain 61 ma=or 9ea9
Lones 5 areas -here )irtuall6 all aquati, li0e has 4een 2ille9. !he Mississi&&i 9ea9 Lone ,o)ers 8G*** milesG the siLe
o0 the state o0 Massa,husettsI !he Colora9oG Dello-G NileG 7angesG In9usG Chao >hra6aG S6r Dar6aG an9 Amu
Dar6a ri)ers are so 9i)erte9 46 -ith9ra-als 0or irrigation an9 ,ities that their ,hannels run 9r6 0or some or all o0 the
6earI Mass e%tin,tion o0 &lant an9 animal s&e,ies is un9er-a6 at a rate e,ologists sa6 has not ha&&ene9 sin,e the
e%tin,tion -a)e that eliminate9 the 9inosaurs 65 million 6ears agoI !he ,urrent atmos&heri, ,on,entrations o0
,ar4on 9io%i9e an9 methane are 0ar higher than the6 ha)e 4een 0or 16*G*** 6earsI >ea2 oil 5 meaning the
ma%imum annual &ro9u,tion a,hie)a4le 5 0ollo-e9 46 9e,lineG is &re9i,te9 to arri)e -ithin a 0e- 6ears. Some
e%&erts ,laim >ea2 (il is No-M >ea2 &ro9u,tion o0 natural gas is e%&e,te9 to 0ollo- -ithin +* 6ears. !his -ill
se)erel6 ,rim& our a4ilit6 to gro- 0oo9 in &resent quantitiesG 4e,ause 4oth 0ossil 0uels are ma=or in&uts in
agri,ultural &ro9u,tionI 75 &er,ent o0 the -orl9's o,eani, 0isheries ha)e no- 4een 0ishe9 at or 4e6on9 ,a&a,it6I
an9G most alarmingG !he -orl9's &o&ulation gro-th is on tra,2 to in,rease 0rom the ,urrent 6 4illion to o)er
4illion &eo&le 46 +*5*. !his in,rease in &o&ulation -ill greatl6 e%a,er4ate the a0orementione9 tren9s. A
0rightening 0ore,astG in9ee9. ?ut &erha&s not unaltera4le. !he en,lose9 s6no&sis outlines the e)i9en,e an9 i9enti0ies
the authors' main ,on,lusions. !he /imits !o 7ro-th" !he 1* Dear U&9ate lea)es us -ith a ho&e0ulG i0 urgentG
message" although the situation remains &re,ariousG there is still time to 4ring the $arth 4a,2 0rom the 4rin2 o0
e,ologi,al ,olla&seG i0 -e a,t no-.
XtnLinear
"D"EF AI@" SAD"? NW IS 1# GIAA"? IN TH" -E2N-H
7a"l Bhrlich, $iologist, Stanford, KB; M@G6 '3,BS ,8O8W3KB, >"ne )R, )/:+, p. H)
Sooner or later pop"lation wo"ld completel( o"tstrip the capacit( of an( other nation to
s"ppl( food. For e2er( )--- people sa2ed now, perhaps )-,--- will die when the cr"nch
comes.
"A-H '"ESN IN@AI-TS !E" ?A!AG"
7a"l %rown, 7hD, K@'BS FG@, 8 DM3KO 758KB', *--R, p. )+)
!he reall6 4a9 ne-s is that the t-o 6ounger &o&ulations in,rease in siLe 0or a4out 1* 6ears 4e,ause ma=or &ortions
o0 their &o&ulations are 6ounger than the ,hil9A4earing age o0 +5 at the time the6 all shi0t to the oneA,hil9 rule. !his
is 9isastrous 4e,ause the more &eo&le there are 9uring this &erio9G the more 9amage the6 9o to their en)ironmentG
an9 the 0e-er resour,es -ill 4e le0t 0or the sur)i)orsG i0 an6G one or t-o ,enturies 0rom no-. Cor every person G 0or
e)er6 6ear that a &o&ulation remains unsustaina4leG the6 in0li,t more 9amage
E"?2-ING ''2AATIN GEWTH SAWS "NDIEN!"NTAA 'E"SS2E"
Donella ,eadows, s(stems anal(st X adF"nct professor of Bn2ironmental St"dies,
Dartmo"th, 53,3'S '@ OG@;'4: '4B H- MB8G U7D8'B, *--+, p. *H/&+-
StillG re9u,tion in the &ea2 &o&ulation has &ositi)e e00e,ts. ?e,ause o0 the slo-er &o&ulation gro-thG ,onsumer
goo9s &er ,a&itaG 0oo9 &er ,a&itaG an9 li0e e%&e,tan,6 are all higher than in S,enario +. At the &o&ulation &ea2s in
+*4*G &er ,a&ita ,onsumer goo9s out&ut is 1* &er,ent higherG &er ,a&ita 0oo9 a)aila4ilit6 is +* &er,ent higherG an9
li0e e%&e,tan,6 is almost 1* &er,ent greater than in S,enario +. !his is 4e,ause less in)estment is nee9e9 to su&&l6
the ,onsum&tion an9 ser)i,e nee9s o0 a smaller &o&ulationG so more in)estment is a)aila4le to 0uel the gro-th o0
in9ustrial ,a&ital. As a resultG in9ustrial out&ut gro-s 0aster an9 higher than it 9i9 in S,enario +. ?6 the 6ear +*4* in9ustrial
out&ut &er ,a&ita has gro-n to t-i,e its le)el in the 6ear +***. !he mo9el &o&ulation is signi0i,antl6 ri,her than at the start o0 the ,entur6G an9 the &erio9 0rom +*1* to +*1* ,oul9 4e terme9 a Hgol9en eraGH -ith
relati)el6 high human -el0are 0or a large &o&ulation
TimeframeShort Term Impact
Slowing population growth has at least short-term benefits, including economic development and decreasing terrorism
we win on timeframe
Longman 04 NO!he 7lo4al ?a46 ?ustP Ma6#3une +**4. <e&rinte9 -ith &ermission 0rom Coreign A00airs. >hilli& /ongman is a
S,h-artL Senior Cello-I <esear,h Dire,torG Ne%t So,ial Contra,t Initiati)eG Ne- Ameri,a Coun9ation. Cormerl6 a senior
-riter an9 9e&ut6 assistant managing e9itor at U.S. News & World ReportG he has -on numerous a-ar9s 0or his 4usiness an9
0inan,ial -ritingG in,lu9ing UC/A's 7eral9 /oe4 A-ar9G an9 the to& &riLe 0or in)estigati)e =ournalism 0rom In)estigati)e
<e&orters an9 $9itors. htt&"##---.,atholi,e9u,ation.org#arti,les#&o&ulation#&,**44.htmQ
;hat impact will these trends ha2e on the glo$al econom( and $alance of powerQ onsider 0rst the
positi2e possi$ilities. Slower world pop"lation growth oDers man( $ene0ts, some of which ha2e
alread( $een reali#ed. ,an( economists $elie2e, for example, that falling $irthrates made possi$le
the great economic $oom that occ"rred in >apan and then in man( other 8sian nations $eginning in
the )/R-s. 8s the relati2e n"m$er of children declined, so did the $"rden of their dependenc(,
there$( freeing "p more reso"rces for in2estment and ad"lt cons"mption. 3n Bast 8sia, the
working&age pop"lation grew nearl( fo"r times faster than its dependent pop"lation $etween )/RL
and )//-, freeing "p a h"ge reser2e of female la$or and other social reso"rces that wo"ld
otherwise ha2e $een committed to raising children. Similarl(, hina!s rapid ind"striali#ation toda(
is $eing aided $( a dramatic decline in the relati2e n"m$er of dependent children. @2er the next
decade, the ,iddle Bast co"ld $ene0t from a similar 1demographic di2idend.1 %irthrates fell in
e2er( single ,iddle Bastern co"ntr( d"ring the )//-s, often dramaticall(. 'he res"lting 1middle
aging1 of the region will lower the o2erall dependenc( ratio o2er the next )- to *- (ears, freeing "p
more reso"rces for infrastr"ct"re and ind"strial de2elopment. 'he appeal of radicalism co"ld also
diminish as (o"ng ad"lts make "p less of the pop"lation and ,iddle Bastern societies $ecome
increasingl( dominated $( middle&aged people concerned with s"ch practical iss"es as health care
and retirement sa2ings. >"st as pop"lation aging in the ;est d"ring the )/:-s was accompanied $(
the disappearance of (o"thf"l indigeno"s terrorist gro"ps s"ch as the Ged %rigades and the
;eather Undergro"nd, falling $irthrates in the ,iddle Bast co"ld well prod"ce societies far less
prone to political 2iolence.
Immigration Turns the Case
increased immigration means a greater num1er o0 people ta&ing ad,antage o0 t(e
social ser,ice w(ic( means it doesnCt accomplis( w(at it was intended to do
'lus increased illegal populations loc& groups into po,ert+.
@AIE #4 Federation for 8merican 3mmigration Geform & national, nonpro0t, p"$lic&
interest, mem$ership organi#ation H"pdated reg"larl( < home page cites statistics from
*--L, http://www.fair"s.org/site/Kews*Q
pageYKews8rticleXidY)RRRHXsec"rit(Y)R-)XnewsPi2PctrlY)--.]
8pologists for illegal immigration tr( to paint it as a 2ictimless crime, $"t the fact is that illegal
immigration ca"ses s"$stantial harm to 8merican citi#ens and legal immigrants, partic"larl( those
in the most 2"lnera$le sectors of o"r pop"lation S the poor, minorities, and children. 3llegal
immigration ca"ses an enormo"s drain on p"$lic f"nds. 'he seminal st"d( of the costs of
immigration $( the Kational 8cadem( of Sciences fo"nd that the taxes paid $( immigrants do not
$egin to co2er the cost of ser2ices recei2ed $( them. 'he 9"alit( of ed"cation, health care and other
ser2ices for 8mericans are "ndermined $( the needs of endless n"m$ers of poor, "nskilled illegal
entrants. 8dditionall(, Fo$ competition $( wa2es of illegal immigrants desperate for an( Fo$ "nfairl(
depresses the wages and working conditions oDered to 8merican workers, hitting hardest at
minorit( workers and those witho"t high school degrees.
Crunch Coming
%iodi,ersit+ en,ironment is on t(e 1rin&I i0 we destro+ it an+more we ris&
e)tinction5
%rown* #/ < 7rofessor of 7h(siolog( at ;est Jirginia Uni2ersit( < *--R =7a"l %rown 7hD
?Kotes from a D(ing 7lanet *--+&*--R: @ne ScientistIs Search for Sol"tionsA p. +C
%efore we came along, species e2ol2ed and went extinct for $illions of (ears, creating and
0lling a di2ersit( of ecological niches. @rganisms "sed energ( from the s"n to grow and
reprod"ce, rec(cling the materials needed for life thro"gh an interdependent worldwide
ecos(stem. ,echanisms existed to maintain ecological sta$ilit( ens"ring that the
en2ironment didn!t change too fast for e2ol"tion to keep "p. @"r $iosphere reco2ered from
calamito"s e2ents like asteroid collisions, e2en tho"gh onl( a minorit( of species made it
thro"gh some of those catastrophes. 'oda(!s ongoing catastrophe ma( eliminate all $"t the
smallest and simplest of life forms. @"r species has Eo"rished, $"t witho"t reali#ing it,
we!2e changed o"r en2ironment too fast for other species to adapt. 8 s(stem!s sta$ilit( can
onl( $e eroded so far, after which it $ecomes "nsta$le. ;e!re approaching a point where
the world!s ecos(stem will change too fast e2en for "s to adapt. ;e will $ecome extinct.
3t!s alread( too late for "s to ret"rn to the world as we fo"nd it or e2en as it was ten (ears
ago. ;e!2e wiped o"t too man( species. 4owe2er, we can protect the remaining fragile
sta$ilit(. 3n a word, we m"st seek s"staina$ilit(, which means cons"ming reso"rces onl( as
fast as the(!re replenished. 8ll the trends on o"r graph ha2e to $e re2ersed, "ntil the(!re
all $ack to pre&ind"strial le2els or lower. 'his doesn!t mean ret"rning to a pre&ind"strial
9"alit( of life&in fact; we sho"ld all $e a$le to li2e m"ch $etter once there are fewer of "s.
%"t we ha2e to take eDecti2e action 2er( soon, $efore it!s too late
We are on t(e 1rin&3 we (a,e stretc(ed all o0 t(e eart(s resources to t(e end
%rown* #/& Barth 7olic( 3nstit"te& >"l( Hrd *--R =5ester, 7lan % *.-, 1Gesc"ing a 7lanet
Under Stress1, *--R, p.),
http://www.energ($"lletin.net/l.../.htm3C
Our global economy is outgrowing the capacity of the earth to support it, pushing our early
twenty-frst century civilization ever closer to decline and possible collapse. In our
preoccupation with quarterly earnings reports and year-to-year economic growth, we have
lost sight of how large the human enterprise has become relative to the earth's resources.
century ago, annual growth in the world economy was measured in billions of dollars. !oday
it is measured in trillions. s a result, we are consuming renewable resources faster than
they can regenerate. "orests are shrin#ing, grasslands are deteriorating, water tables are
falling, fsheries are collapsing, and soils are eroding. $e are using up oil at a pace that
leaves little time to plan beyond pea# oil, or the period during which demand for oil far
e%ceeds all available supply. nd we are discharging greenhouse gases into the atmosphere
faster than nature can absorb them, setting the stage for a rise in the earth's temperature
well above any since agriculture began.
T(e carr+ing capacit+ will ma) out at 9.4 1illion people
!eadows* #.& S(stems 8nal(st X 7rofessor of Bn2ironmental St"dies Z Dartmo"th& *--+
=Donella, 15imits to growth: 'he H- Mear
Update1, p.*+-C
!he larger capital plant emits more pollution, which has negative e&ects on agricultural
production. 'apital has to be diverted to the agricultural sector to sustain food production.
nd later on, after ()*), pollution levels are su+ciently high to have negative impacts on
human life e%pectancies. In summary, the model world e%periences a ,pollution crisis,
where high levels of pollution poison land and lead to food shortages for the people. !hus,
given the limits and technologies assumed in the simulated world of -cenario ., and given
no constraints on material aspirations, that world cannot sustain even ..* billion people. $e
do not avoid collapse if we stabilize only the global population. 'ontinued capital growth is
as unsustainable as population growth. /ach, if left unchec#ed, can produce an ecological
footprint that e%ceeds the carrying capacity of the globe.
Crunch Coming
WeCre on t(e 1rin& t(e crunc( is coming
%rown* #/ < 7rofessor of 7h(siolog( at ;est Jirginia Uni2ersit( < *--R =7a"l %rown 7hD
?Kotes from a D(ing 7lanet *--+&*--R: @ne ScientistIs Search for Sol"tionsA p. +C
%efore we came along, species e2ol2ed and went extinct for $illions of (ears,
creating and 0lling a di2ersit( of ecological niches. @rganisms "sed energ( from the s"n to
grow and reprod"ce, rec(cling the materials needed for life thro"gh an interdependent
worldwide ecos(stem. ,echanisms existed to maintain ecological sta$ilit( ens"ring that
the en2ironment didn!t change too fast for e2ol"tion to keep "p. @"r $iosphere reco2ered
from calamito"s e2ents like asteroid collisions, e2en tho"gh onl( a minorit( of species
made it thro"gh some of those catastrophes. 'oda(!s ongoing catastrophe ma( eliminate
all $"t the smallest and simplest of life forms.
@"r species has Eo"rished, $"t witho"t reali#ing it, we!2e changed o"r en2ironment
too fast for other species to adapt. 8 s(stem!s sta$ilit( can onl( $e eroded so far, after
which it $ecomes "nsta$le. ;e!re approaching a point where the world!s ecos(stem will
change too fast e2en for "s to adapt. ;e will $ecome extinct.
It's alrea96 too late 0or us to return to the -orl9 as -e 0oun9 it or e)en as it -as ten 6ears ago. :e')e -i&e9 out too
man6 s&e,ies. 8o-e)erG -e ,an &rote,t the remaining 0ragile sta4ilit6. In a -or9G -e must see2 sustaina4ilit6G
-hi,h means ,onsuming resour,es onl6 as 0ast as the6're re&lenishe9. All the tren9s on our gra&h ha)e to 4e
re)erse9G until the6're all 4a,2 to &reAin9ustrial le)els or lo-er. !his 9oesn't mean returning to a &reAin9ustrial
qualit6 o0 li0eAin 0a,tI -e shoul9 all 4e a4le to li)e mu,h 4etter on,e there are 0e-er o0 us. ?ut -e ha)e to ta2e
e00e,ti)e a,tion )er6 soonG 4e0ore it's too late.
Crunch Coming
SIGNS @ AN I!!IN"NT "NDIEN!"NT %E"AG3?WN
homas !omer-"i#onG &oliti,al s,ientist R &o&ulation resear,herG !8$ U>SID$ (C D(:N" CA!AS!<(>8$G
C<$A!ISI!DG AND !8$ <$N$:A/ (C CISI/ITA!I(NG $00%G &. 11*A+
?ut the northern en)ironment is ,hanging 0ast&erha&s 0aster than the 4ears ,an a9a&t to it. ()er the &ast 0i0t6
6earsG the ,limate in the region has -arme9 a4out o.1 9egrees Celsius ea,h 9e,a9eI an9 the i,e has 4egun 4rea2ing u& earlierno-G on
a)erageG a4out t-o to three -ee2s earlier than thirt6 6ears ago. A0ter 4rea2u&G the sealsG in,lu9ing the allAim&ortant &u&sG are no longer a,,essi4le to the 4ears. :ith the shorter hunting seasonG &regnant 0emale
&olar 4earsG es&e,iall6G store less 0at 0or the long -inter to ,ome an9 are thin 46 the 0ollo-ing s&ring. !his means the6 ha)e more trou4le 4earing an9 raising health6 ,u4s.' :armer -eather is ha)ing another
un0ortunate im&a,t on &olar 4ears. <ains are starting earlier in the northG e)en at the 4eginning o0 Mar,h. !he6 saturate the sno- that -as lai9 9o-n o)er the long -interG ma2ing it so0t an9 hea)6. Un9er its -eight
the 4ears' 9ens sometimes ,olla&seG -hi,h ,an ,rush to 9eath the stillAslee&ing animals an9 their ,u4s.' Ce- o0 us ha)e met &olar 4ears in the -il9G 4ut -e ha)e &otent images o0 them in our min9s&erha&s o0
singleG &eri&ateti, 4ears -an9ering o)er the North's en9less i,e 0iel9sG 0arG 0ar a-a6 0rom our in0luen,e. ?ut that mental image is mislea9ing. It turns out that e)er6 one o0 us is 9oing things ea,h 9a6 that intimatel6
a00e,t =ust a4out e)er6 4ear in the Ar,ti, region. !he6 ma6 4e immensel6 strong an9 4rilliantl6 a9a&te9 to their 4rutal en)ironment as it -as till re,entl6G 4ut sometimes the6're not strong enough to -ithstan9 our
,olle,ti)e assault.' :hether or not -e're a-are o0 itG our in0luen,e insinuates itsel0 into &ra,ti,all6 e)er6 ni,he an9 relationshi& in $arth's -e4 o0 li0e9isru&ting an,ient &atterns o0 &lant an9 animal 4eha)ior an9
e,ologi,al 0rom the 9ee& seas to the high mountains an9 0rom the tro&i,s to the &oles. :hen -e 4urn gasoline in our ,ars or ,oal in our ele,tri,al &lantsG -hen -e &ro9u,e ,on,rete to ,onstru,t 4uil9ings an9
high-a6sG an9 -hen our 0orests 4urnG the ,ar4on 9io%i9e that is emitte9 a00e,ts the glo4al ,limate. An9 as $arth's atmos&here -armsmu,h 0asterG it turns outG
to-ar9 the North >olem6ria9 relationshi&s 4et-een s&e,ies an9 their en)ironments are 4eing altere9.' An al&ine
shru4 migrates u& mountain slo&es to -here it's ,oolerG a s&e,ies o0 4ir9 la6s its eggs earlier in the s&ring on an
Antar,ti, islan9G an9 sar9ine ,at,hes &lummet in an A0ri,an la2e.' !his list is no- en9lessG 4ut e)en so e,ologists
still 2no- a4out onl6 a tin6 0ra,tion o0 these shi0ts. Almost all o0 them are unseenI an9 gi)en the ,om&le%it6 o0 the
en)ironmental s6stems in)ol)e9G onl6 a 0e- ,an 4e &re9i,te9 -ith an6 a,,ura,6. Det =ust li2e the &ro)er4ial ,anar6
in a ,oal mineG these strange 9e)elo&ments&olar 4ears ,rushe9 in their 9ensG 0rogs 4orn -ith e%tra legs in
Minnesota an9 AustraliaG 4ees an9 other &ollinators )anishing 0rom our or,har9sare telling us something is going
haywire with our larger global environment .' An9 no matter ho- e%,e&tional -e thin2 -e areno matter ho-
mu,h -e thin2 -e ,an isolate oursel)es 0romG or rise a4o)eG nature-e're still intimatel6 ent-ine9 -ith nature's
&ro,esses.' :e')e seen ho- the te,toni, stresses arising 0rom &o&ulation im4alan,es an9 energ6 s,ar,it6 in,rease
the ris2 o0 so,ial 4rea29o-nin our ,ommunities an9 ,ountriesG as -ell as glo4all6. $s,alating 9amage to the
natural en)ironment also threatens us. (ur en)ironmental &ro4lems are no- so ,onsi9era4le that I'm going to
9i)i9e them into t-o ,ategories" in this ,ha&ter I'll mainl6 9is,uss &ro4lems arising 0rom 9amage to the lan9sG
0resh-aterG 0orestsG an9 0isheriesG an9 in the ne%t ,ha&ter I'll 9is,uss &ro4lems arising 0rom ,limate ,hange. !hese
t-o ,ategories are o0 ,ourse ,onne,te9 in man6 -a6sG 4ut the6 are 9istin,t enoughan9 ea,h is ,riti,al enough on
its o-nthat I ,onsi9er them se&aratel6 as the thir9 an9 0ourth te,toni, stresses.
Crunch Coming
-urrent depletion o0 resources will lea,e 0ewer t(an 1612# o0 t(e (uman
population
"(rlic( and ?ail+ :2 =7a"l G., %ing 7rofessor of 7op"lation St"dies and 7rofessor of
%iological Sciences at Stanford Uni2ersit( and Oretchen ., 7rofessor in the Department of
%iological Sciences; Senior Fellow in the ;oods 3nstit"te for the Bn2ironment, 17op"lation,
S"staina$ilit(, and Barth!s arr(ing apacit(1 %ioscience, 2ol"me +* iss"e )-, p. .R)&..),
http://www.Fstor.org/sta$le/)H))//LC
arr(ing capacit( toda(. 7i)en ,urrent te,hnologiesG le)els o0 ,onsum&tionG an9 so,ioe,onomi, organiLationG has
ingenuit6 ma9e to9a6's &o&ulation sustaina4leU !he ans-er to this 9"estion is ,learl6 no, $( a simple standard.
'he ,urrent &o&ulation of L.L $illion is maintaine9 onl6 through the e%haustion an9 9is&ersion o0 a oneAtime inheritan,e
o0 natural ,a&ital VBhrlich and Bhrlich )//-C incl"ding topsoil, gro"ndwater, and $iodi2ersit(.
'he ra&i9 9e&letion o0 these essential resour,esG ,ou&le9 -ith a -orl9-i9e 9egra9ation o0 lan9 =>aco$s )//), ,(ers
)/:+, 7ostel )/:/C an9 atmos&heri, qualit6 =>ones and ;igle( )/:/, Schneider )//C, in9i,ate that the
human enter&rise has not onl6 e%,ee9e9 its ,urrent so,ial ,arr6ing ,a&a,it6G 4ut it is a,tuall6 re9u,ing 0uture &otential
4io&h6si,al ,arr6ing ,a&a,ities $( depleting essential nat"ral capital stocks. !he unusual ,onsequen,e 0or an
animal &o&ulation that e%,ee9s its lo,al 4io&h6si,al ,arr6ing ,a&a,it6 is a &o&ulation 9e,lineG 4rought a4out 46 a ,om4ination
o0 in,rease9 mortalit6G re9u,e9 0e,un9it6G an9 emigration -here &ossi4le =6lein )/R:, ,ech )/RR, ScheDer
)/L)). A ,lassi, e%am&le is that + rein9eer introd"ced to St. ,atthew 3sland, -hi,h &ro&agate9 to 6***G
9estro6e9 their resour,e 4ase an9 9e,line9 to 0e-er than 50 indi2id"als =6lein )/R:C. an h"man $eings
lower their per&capita impact at a rate s"Dicientl( high to co"nter$alance their explosi2e
increase in pop"lationQ
@ood is limited and population e)pansion is approac(ing t(e 1rea&ing point
"(rlic( et al :3 =7a"l G. Bhrlich, %ing 7rofessor of 7op"lation St"dies and 7rofessor of
%iological Sciences at Stanford Uni2ersit(, 8nne 4. Bhrlich, Senior Gesearch 8ssociate in
the Department of %iological Sciences of Stanford Uni2ersit(, Oretchen . Dail(, 7rofessor
in the Department of %iological Sciences; Senior Fellow in the ;oods 3nstit"te for the
Bn2ironment, 1Food Sec"rit(, 7op"lation and Bn2ironment1 7op"lation and De2elopment
Ge2iew, 2ol"me )/ iss"e ), p. )&H*, http://www.Fstor.org/sta$le/*/H:H:HC
Dou4ts a4out humanit6's a4ilit6 to ,ontinue an e%&onential e%&ansion o0 0oo9 &ro9u,tion in the near 0uture stem 0rom two
$asic o$ser2ations. 'he 0rst is that the extraordinar( e%&ansion o0 0oo9 &ro9u,tion since ,alth"s!s
time has 4een a,hie)e9 at a hea)6 ,ost & the depletion of a one&time inheritance of nat"ral capital
cr"cial to agric"lt"re. 'hat cost now amo"nts to an ann"al loss of ro"ghl( *+ $illion tons of
topsoil =%rown and ;olfe, )/:+C, trillions of gallons of gro"ndwater =e.g., Geisner, )/:RC,
and millions of pop"lations and species of other organisms =all in2ol2ed in s"ppl(ing
ecos(stem ser2ices cr"cial to food prod"ction & Bhrlich and Dail(, )//HC. !he loss is &ermanent on
an6 time s,ale o0 interest to humanit6. 'he second o$ser2ation is while agri,ultural out&ut gre- faster in the
last fo"r decades than e2en some optimists had predicted, &ast e%&e,tations that a &o&ulation o0 5
4illion ,oul9 easil6 4e 0e9 ha)e not 4een meT, largel( $eca"se hungr6 &eo&le ha)e not ha9 the means to &ur,hase 0oo9.
3n fact, +** million or more &eo&le ha)e star)e9 to 9eath or 9ie9 o0 hungerArelate9 9isease in the &ast t-o 9e,a9es
=UK3BF, )//*C, and as man( as a $illion people are chronicall( "nderno"rished toda(,
a$o"t half of them serio"sl( so =UK 7op"lation F"nd, )//*C. 3n se2eral maFor de2eloping
regions, incl"ding 8frica and 5atin 8merica, the num4ers o0 hungr6 &eo&le ha)e ,ontinue9 to in,rease
=F8@, )//*$; Stone, )//*C, 9es&ite the im&ressi)e gains in 0oo9 &ro9u,tion.
Crunch Coming
Humanit+ is on t(e 1rin& now 0ood and population are on a cras( course
"(rlic( et al :4 =7a"l G., %ing 7rofessor of 7op"lation St"dies and 7rofessor of %iological
Sciences at Stanford Uni2ersit(, 8nne 4. Bhrlich, Senior Gesearch 8ssociate in the
Department of %iological Sciences of Stanford Uni2ersit(, and Oretchen . Dail(, %ing
3nterdisciplinar( Gesearch Scientist at Stanford Uni2ersit(, ?'he Stork and 'he 7lowA p.)C
8s the twentieth cent"r( draws to a closeG humanit6 0a,es the 9aunting &ros&e,t o0 su&&orting its &o&ulation
-ithout in9u,ing ,atastro&hi, an9 irre)ersi4le 9estru,tion on $arth's li0eAsu&&ort s6stems. 8uman an9 agri,ultural 0ertilit6 are
on a ,ollision ,ourse: the stork is threatening to o2ertake the plow. %( )///, the human &o&ulation -ill
surge &ast 6 4illion in num4er an9 -ill still 4e s26ro,2eting . United Kations demographers proFect
contin"ing expansion for another cent"r( or so to nearl( )* $illion. ;hile ro"ghl( a $illion
people in ind"striali#ed nations li2e in comfort "ndreamed of in cent"ries past, another 4illion
su00er e%tremes o0 &o)ert6 an9 )iolen,e that the ri,h ,an har9l6 imagine. 'he rest are concentrated near the
low end of the standard of li2ing contin""m.
Acting now is &e+ nations are alread+ 0alling apart
"(rlic( et al :4 =7a"l G., %ing 7rofessor of 7op"lation St"dies and 7rofessor of %iological
Sciences at Stanford Uni2ersit(, 8nne 4. Bhrlich, Senior Gesearch 8ssociate in the
Department of %iological Sciences of Stanford Uni2ersit(, and Oretchen . Dail(, %ing
3nterdisciplinar( Gesearch Scientist at Stanford Uni2ersit(, ?'he Stork and 'he 7lowA
p.*LC
'he stor( at the end of the twentieth cent"r( is f"ndamentall( diDerent. No )astG s&arsel6
o,,u&ie9 reser)oirs o0 ,arr6ing ,a&a,it6 remain to 4e a&&ro&riate9 as B"ropean nations claimed the carr(ing
capacit( of the western hemisphere se2eral h"ndred (ears ago. !he glo4al 0rontier is ,lose9. $ntire
su4,ontinents are no- in se)ere e,ologi,al &eril. Su4ASaharan A0ri,aG far from emerging from po2ert( and
"nderde2elopment, seems to 4e sin2ing in 9ee&erG -ith shrin2ing &erA,a&ita 0oo9 &ro9u,tion an9 7N>s an9 a raging
e&i9emi, o0 AIDS . 3n the words of two of 3ndia!s most disting"ished ecologists, their nation His li)ing
on 4orro-e9 time. It is eatingG at an a,,elerating rateG into the ,a&ital sto,2 o0 its rene-a4le resour,es o0 soilG -aterG &lant an9
animal li0e.H $%a,tl6 the same ,an 4e sai9 o0 )irtuall6 e)er6 other region on $arth.
LinkSocial Services
Social ser,ices 0unction as an immigrant magnet
-AEN"GI" :/ 8 Foint proFect of the 3nternational ,igration 7olic( 7rogram of the
arnegie Bndowment for 3nternational 7eace and the Ur$an 3nstit"te [Gesearch
7erspecti2es on ,igration, ?3mmigrants X ;elfare,A Septem$er / @cto$er )//R Jol"me ) /
K"m$er , http://www.carnegieendowment.org/0les/rpm/rpm2ol)no).pdf]
'he de$ate that preceded passage of the $ill reEected widespread p"$lic disappro2al of immigrant welfare "se. 8 n"m$er of ke(
concerns were raised d"ring the de$ate, with rami0cations for $oth welfare and
immigration polic(. hief among them was the concern that immigrants are "sing welfare
disproportionatel(. @ther concerns were that welfare "se among i m m i g rants is accelerating; that certain ethnic gro"ps with
large and growing immigrant Eows are more hea2il( represented on the welfare rolls than others; that assistance programs
are acting as a magnet for potential immigrants; and that welfare ma( $e prod"cing some
of the same "ndesira$le social and $eha2i o ral traits among immigrants that critics ha2e
arg"ed it prod"ces in the nati2e&$orn pop"lation.
T(e neg is damn rig(t wel0are 1enefts are a magnet
S(aw :3 US Gepresentati2e from Florida [B"gene la( U.S. 4o"se of Gepresentati2es
S"$committee on 4"man Geso"rces ommittee on ;a(s and ,eans 4earing on the 3mpact of
3mmigration on ;elfare 7rograms Ko2em$er )L, )//H
http://www.archi2e.org/stream/impacto0mmigrat--"nit/impacto0mmigrat--"nitPdF2".txt] >4
8nd when (o" talk a$o"t welfare here in this co"ntr(, the $ene0ts can mo"nt to aro"nd [)H,--- a
(ear where (o"r minim"m wage is aro"nd [:,--- a (ear. 'hat creates a tremendo"s magnet here in
this co"ntr(. 8nd the 9"estion is are people coming here from thro"gho"t the world S and this isn!t
F"st 5atin 8merica, this isn!t $ashing on an( partic"lar gro"p of people S \$"t are the( coming
here $eca"se of the welfareQ ?o our wel0are 1enefts amount to a magnet; Fou are damn
rig(t t(e+ do. Mo" are damn right the( do. 7eople are talking a lot a$o"t what workers are paid in
,exico, and 3 know there is a lot of misinformation o"t there, $"t we do know that the ,exican
wages are certainl( $elow o"r minim"m wage, so are o"r welfare $ene0ts a magnet for people to
come into the United StatesQ @f co"rse the( are.
Immigrant populations ta&e ad,antage o0 social ser,ices loo&ing 0or economic
opportunities
!""S" > S'AA?ING 4 1# #9 Gonald Geagan Disting"ished Fellow in 7"$lic 7olic( and
hairman of the enter for 5egal and >"dicial St"dies X Director of the %. 6enneth Simon enter
for 8merican St"dies, at 'he 4eritage Fo"ndation [Bdwin ,eese, 333, X ,atthew Spalding 7hD,
;here ;e Stand: Bssential Ge9"irements for 3mmigration Geform, %ackgro"nder ]*-H+,
http://www.heritage.org/research/immigration/$g*-H+.cfm]
7rinciple: Immigration polic( sho"ld $e a 0scal and economic $ene0t not onl( for immigrants, $"t
also for the nation as a whole.
,ost indi2id"als and families that immigrate to the United States come seeking economic opport" &
nit(. Unlike pre2io"s generations, howe2er, a gener o"s welfare, ed"cation, and health s(stem with
genero"s eligi$ilit( draws poor and low&skill immi grants into the ranks of the "nderclass rather
than enco"raging self&reliance and 0nancial indepen dence. 7olic(makers m"st ens"re that the
interac tion of social ser2ices and immigration polic( does not expand the welfare state and impose
signi0cant costs on 8merican societ(. @2erall, immigration polic( sho"ld s"pport a growing
econom( and $ring economic $ene0t to all 8mericans.
^Don!t import po,ert+. Oo2ernment pro2ides a genero"s s(stem of $ene0ts and ser2ices to $oth the
working and the non&working poor. ;hile go2ernment contin"es its massi2e eDorts to red"ce
o2erall po2ert(, immigration polic( in the United States tends to prod"ce res"lts in the opposite
direction, increasing rather than decreasing the po2ert( pro$lem. 3mmigrants with low skill le2els
ha2e a high pro$a$ilit( of po2ert( and of recei2ing $ene0ts and ser2ices that dri2e "p go2ernmental
welfare, health, social ser2ice, and ed"cation costs.[**]
LinkSocial Services
Illegal immigrants rel+ (ea,il+ on social ser,ices
!""S" > S'AA?ING 4 1# #9 Gonald Geagan Disting"ished Fellow in 7"$lic 7olic( and
hairman of the enter for 5egal and >"dicial St"dies X Director of the %. 6enneth Simon enter
for 8merican St"dies, at 'he 4eritage Fo"ndation [Bdwin ,eese, 333, X ,atthew Spalding 7hD,
;here ;e Stand: Bssential Ge9"irements for 3mmigration Geform, %ackgro"nder ]*-H+,
http://www.heritage.org/research/immigration/$g*-H+.cfm]
^onsider 0scal costs and $ene0ts. 'he 0scal impact of immigration 2aries strongl( according to
immigrants! ed"cation le2els. ;hile highl( ed"cated immigrants, on a2erage, make positi2e 0scal
contri$"tions, the o2erall 0scal impact of low&skill immigrants is negati2e. @n a2erage, low&skill
immigrant ho"seholds recei2e [)/,L:: more in immediate $ene0ts than the( pa( in taxes each (ear
Snearl( [).* million in lifetime costs for each s"ch ho"sehold.[*H] Immigration reform m"st take
into acco"nt the large and fore seea$le costs associated with importing millions of low&skill
immigrants and the likelihood that s"ch an immigration polic( will 2astl( expand the welfare state.
For the same reasons, a polic( that grants amnest( to c"rrent illegal aliens wo"ld ha2e a 2er(
signi0cant 0scal cost.[*+]
Social Ser,ices attract immigrants
Stein 2### Bxec"ti2e director, Federation for 8merican 3mmigration Geform [Dan Stein
?3mmigration 7ro/onA >"l( *--- _ Gesearcher
http://www.prhs.k)*.n(."s/fac/0t#gi$$ons$/De$ate/3mmigrationN*-7roN*-on.doc] >4
7oliticians perpet"all( talk a$o"t the need to control illegal immigration. %"t $eca"se the talk is rarel( $acked with action, a$o"t R million
illegal aliens now reside in the United States. Kow, some in ongress are s"ggesting illegal immigration once again $e rewarded $( granting
amnest( to millions of $ra#en law 2iolators. ;hat sort of signal does this sendQ 3t tells people we will do little to stop them and e2en less to
deport them if the( decide to $(pass the legal immigration process. 3t tells them we will grant them legal stat"s if the( ha2e the fortit"de to
stick it o"t for a few (ears. 3s it an( wonder the illegal immigrant pop"lation e9"als the pop"lation of ,assach"settsQ 'he last amnest( in )/:R
&& which ongress pledged wo"ld ne2er $e repeated && legali#ed some H million people and cost taxpa(ers an estimated [.: $illion. 'oda(,
immigration enforcement has 2irt"all( collapsed. 8nd despite the fact that 0nancial instit"tions manage to r"n
millions of electronic 2eri0cations e2er( da(, the go2ernment has (et to de2elop a s(stem that can
e2en a"thenticate a Fo$ applicant!s right to work and li2e in the United States. onse9"entl(, the
a2aila$ilit( of Fo$s and genero"s social ser2ices contin"es to attract illegal immigrants. 8nother
amnest( wo"ld tell the world that the United States literall( is "na$le to control its $orders. S"ch
an admission ine2ita$l( wo"ld force a reappraisal of the 2alidit( and p"rposes of the meaningless
immigration 9"otas now on the $ooks. 3llegal immigration also inEicts economic inF"r( on
8mericans in the lower half of the wage str"ct"re. K"mero"s st"dies show that immigration, especiall( illegal
immigration, res"lts in wage loss for 8mericans who m"st compete against illegal immigrants. ;hile amnest( proponents arg"e that
legali#ation will gi2e illegal aliens more $argaining le2erage, e2en this 9"estiona$le merit is likel( to $e short&li2ed. 8nother amnest( is
g"aranteed to set oD an e2en greater inE"x of illegal immigration as people percei2e this to $e o"r wa( to deal with the pro$lem
periodicall(.8mnest( is not the answer. 'he onl( wa( to stop illegal immigration is to link aliens! a$ilit( to immigrate with their willingness to
pla( $( o"r r"les. Bnco"rage those here illegall( to ret"rn to their home co"ntries thro"gh incenti2es and get control of o"r $orders && onl(
then wo"ld an( disc"ssion of an amnest( and reward program $e responsi$le.
Impro,ing social ser,ices 1oosts illegal immigration itCs t(e reason t(e+ come
GEAF : 12 #/ hief 7olic( 8nal(st of the i2itas 3nstit"te, a research and p"$lic polic(
organi#ation [%eck( Ora(, ?i2itas 3nstit"te: 4igher ,inim"m ;age ;o"ld %e ,agnet For 3llegal
3mmigrants,A http://www.wsoct2.com/news//:*//HH/detail.html]
Gaising the minim"m wage, in addition to the other $ene0ts pro2ided $( the state, co"ld enco"rage
a greater n"m$er of illegal immigrants to come to Korth arolina. 6eeping the minim"m wage at
the c"rrent rate of [L.)L per ho"r wonIt end the all"re for illegal immigrants, $"t it wonIt
enco"rage more to come. 3n the Senate %"dget %ill =S% ).+)C, and in a free&standing $ill $efore the 4o"se =4% *).+C, legislators
want to raise the minim"m wage to [R.)L per ho"r, one dollar more than the federal rate. 'his wo"ld make Korth arolinaIs minim"m wage
the highest of s"rro"nding states, the highest $etween Florida and Kew >erse(, and the )+th highest in the co"ntr(. Six states ha2e no
minim"m wage state laws. 'he( let the free market determine what workers are paid. 'went(&se2en states =K.. c"rrentl( among themC
adhere to the rate set $( the federal go2ernment S [L.)L per ho"r. Kineteen states ha2e minim"m wages higher than the federal le2el =K..
wo"ld Foin these statesC. @f the 02e states with the highest illegal pop"lations =estimated, no one reall( knowsC, fo"r ha2e minim"m wage rates
higher than Korth arolina. 'he 0fth is 'exas, which man( wo"ld arg"e is a magnet for illegals, regardless of its minim"m wage, $eca"se of its
proximit( to ,exico. 'en million illegal immigrants li2e in the United States, altho"gh some estimates p"t
that n"m$er at *- million. 'he( come to escape extreme po2ert( and poor li2ing conditions. 'he(
come to 8merica to work, and man( send mone( $ack home to their families.
Korth arolinaIs illegal immigrant pop"lation is estimated at +--,---& R--,---. 'he( come here
$eca"se of the genero"s ,edicaid $ene0ts, a plethora of social ser2ices, schools for their children,
eas( dri2ersI license re9"irements, lax 2oting laws, and most importantl(, Fo$s. ,ost illegals 0ll the
lowest pa(ing Fo$s the market has to oDer. ;ho $ene0ts when the pa( for these Fo$s is raisedQ 'he
workers at the $ottom of the pa( scale, and a great man( of them are illegal immigrants. Kot onl(
wo"ld the illegal immigrant workforce $ene0t immediatel(, $"t, since Korth arolina wo"ld $e
oDering the highest minim"m wage in the region, the [R.)L starting pa( rate wo"ld $e a magnet for
illegals to choose Korth arolina as their new, al$eit illegal, home.
LinkSocial Services
New immigrants care a1out social ser,ices
-olum1us ?ispatc( #9 [ol"m$"s Dispatch, ?7oliticians woo central @hio!s immigrant 2otes for
next electionA Decem$er *, *--. 5exis]
7oliticians are $eginning to reali#e that while immigrants as a gro"p ma( $e concerned a$o"t some
of the same $asic iss"es s"ch as good Fo$s for people with limited lang"age skills or access to
health care, immigrants ma( hold diDerent 2iews a$o"t e2er(thing from charter schools to taxes. 13mmigrant gro"ps are not monolithic
$locks. 'he( ha2e competing interests, F"st like an( gro"p in societ( does,1 said Do"g 7reisse, the Franklin o"nt( Gep"$lican 7art( chairman.
3nstead, campaigning Gep"$licans plan to appeal to immigrants! sense of entreprene"rship and hard work, 7reisse said. Democratic part(
leaders stri2e to "nite immigrant gro"ps $( foc"sing on 1kitchen ta$le iss"es1 s"ch as impro2ing schools, health care, and economic iss"es,
said @hio Democratic 7art( spokesman Gand( %orntrager. 'hese iss"es $ring people together $eca"se the( $ene0t the comm"nit( as a whole,
he said. ,an( immigrants are foc"sed on iss"es tied to their home co"ntries, said 5o"is DeSipio, an associate professor at the Uni2ersit( of
alifornia&3r2ine who has st"died immigrant 2oting patterns for *- (ears. "$ans, for example, "se their 2otes to inE"ence U.S. polic( toward
Fidel astro, while ,exicans ma( $e concerned a$o"t the rights of illegal immigrants. 8nd, priorities ma( di2erge with s"cceeding
generations, DeSipio said. Kew immigrants ma( $e more concerned with social ser2ices than older
immigrants who ha2e s"cceeded in $"sinesses here.
LinkJobs
Jo1s created 1+ t(e plan increase immigration 3 T(e decline in immigration is due
to t(e lac& o0 8o1s
NF Times 431.3#: [>"lia 7reston Kational orrespondent, Kew Mork 'imes ?,exican
Data Show ,igration to U.S. in DeclineA ,a( )+, *--/
(ttp566www.n+times.com62##:6#46146us614immig.(tml] >4
,BU3853, ,exico S ens"s data from the ,exican go2ernment indicate an extraordinar( decline
in the n"m$er of ,exican immigrants going to the United States.
'he recentl( released data show that a$o"t **R,--- fewer people emigrated from ,exico to other
co"ntries d"ring the (ear that ended in 8"g"st *--: than d"ring the pre2io"s (ear, a decline of *L
percent. 8ll $"t a 2er( small fraction of emigration, $oth legal and illegal, from ,exico is to the
United States.
%eca"se of s"rging immigration, the ,exican&$orn pop"lation in the United States has grown
steepl( (ear after (ear since the earl( )//-s, dipping $rieE( onl( after the attacks of Sept. )),
*--), cens"s data in $oth co"ntries show.
,exican and 8merican researchers sa( that t(e c"rrent decline, which has also $een manifested
in a decrease in arrests along the $order, is largel( a result of ,exicansI deciding to dela( illegal
crossings $eca"se o0 t(e lac& o0 8o1s in the ailing 8merican econom(.
'he trend emerged clearl( with the onset of the recession and, demographers sa(, pro2ides new
e2idence that illegal immigrants from ,exico, $( far the $iggest so"rce of "na"thori#ed migration
to the United States, are drawn $( Fo$s and respond to a sinking la$or market $( sta(ing awa(.
?3f Fo$s are a2aila$le, people come,A said >eDre( S. 7assel, senior demographer at the 7ew 4ispanic
enter, a nonpartisan research gro"p in ;ashington. ?3f Fo$s are not a2aila$le, people donIt come.A
New 8o1 opportunities are t(e crucial magnet 0or illegal immigration
DA2GHAN 3 1. #9 Senior 7olic( 8nal(st, enter for 3mmigration St"dies [>essica
,. Ja"ghn, ?7re2enting 3llegal Bmplo(ment: Federal ?%asic 7ilotA Jeri0cation 7rogram is
an BDecti2e and %"siness&friendl( 'ool,A
http://www.cis.org/articles/*--./Fm2testimon(-H)+-..html]
4istor( of %asic 7ilot. 3t is widel( recogni#ed that emplo(ment is the most common incenti2e for
illegal immigration to the United States. 3n )/:R, with the passage of the 3mmigration Geform and
ontrol 8ct, it $ecame illegal for emplo(ers to knowingl( hire illegal aliens. 'he law re9"ired
emplo(ees to prod"ce doc"ments esta$lishing eligi$ilit( for work, $"t pro2ided no wa( for
emplo(ers to ascertain if the doc"ments are legitimate. 'his spawned a h"ge co"nterfeit doc"ment
ind"str( and ena$led emplo(ers who deli$eratel( ignore immigration laws to get awa( with
accepting fra"d"lent doc"ments, while holding o"t the specter of discrimination charges against
those conscientio"s emplo(ers who might inspect doc"ments too closel(.
3n )//., the $ipartisan $l"e&ri$$on ommission on 3mmigration Geform, headed $( former
Democratic 'exas ongresswoman and ci2il rights icon %ar$ara >ordan, concl"ded: ?Eeducing t(e
emplo+ment magnet is t(e linc(pin o0 a compre(ensi,e strateg+ to deter unlaw0ul
migration. . . . Strategies to deter "nlawf"l entries and 2isa o2ersta(s re9"ire $oth a relia$le
process for 2erif(ing a"thori#ation to work and an enforcement capacit( to ens"re that emplo(ers
adhere to all immigration&related la$or standards. 'he ommission s"pports implementation of
pilot programs to test what we $elie2e is the most promising option for 2erif(ing work
a"thori#ation: a comp"teri#ed registr( $ased on the social sec"rit( n"m$er.1R
Linkabortion
Ain& 3 A1ortion &ills a generation t(at can now 1e flled 1+ immigrants
-olson / 'olitical Acti,ist Indicted 0or Watergate Scandal Eig(ts Acti,ist H-(arles*
KIllegal Immigration T(e Eeal Eoot o0 t(e 'ro1lemL %rea& 'oint April 11* 2##/
(ttp566www.1rea&point.org6commentaries644413illegal3immigration7 JH
%"t whatIs the root of the pro$lemQ ;h( do we ha2e a shortage of workersQ 8ha, thatIs the
"nspeaka$le ?8A word that the elite dread the most: a$ortion.
'he reason we m"st allow millions of illegal aliens in to 0ll these Fo$s is $eca"se we ha2e m"rdered
a generation that wo"ld otherwise $e 0lling them: +- million sacri0ced since )/.H to the god of self&
f"l0llment. 8nd 8mericans are $arel( maintaining a replacement&le2el $irthrate of *.) children per
woman.
Gemem$er the compassionate st"D that the a$ortionists "sed to tell "s: ?;e are F"st pre2enting
these poor kids from growing "p in depri2ed, impo2erished circ"mstancesAQ 4ahV False. ;hat
happens is that others come in from a$road to li2e in those depri2ed, diDic"lt, and impo2erished
circ"mstances and at great p"$lic cost.
3 hope the politicians will ha2e the co"rage to face this iss"e in a wa( that does not "ndermine the
8merican econom(, shows compassion to those in o"r midst, and restores the r"le of law. 8t the
same time, (o" and 3 can contend to restore the c"lt"re of life, $eca"se it is the c"lt"re of death
that has p"t "s in this mess toda(.
3s there a sol"tionQ S"re. Seal the $orders, which (o" ha2e got to do with terrorists o"t there
an(wa(, insist the workers we ha2e welcomed in o"r midst 0le and compl( with appropriate
immigration laws, andSoh (eahSstop killing o"r children.
A1ortion ser,ices increase immigration 3 A1ortions 0ree up 8o1s 0or immigrants
A' 11 13 #/ [D8J3D 8. 53B%, 8ssociated 7ress ;riter ?,o. 7anel: 3mmigration, 8$ortion
5inkedA SF hronicle Ko2em$er )H, *--R http://www.sfgate.com/cgi&$in/article.cgiQ
0leY/news/archi2e/*--R/))/)H/national/a)L):L*SR*.D'5] >4
8 Gep"$lican&led legislati2e panel claims in a new report on illegal immigration that a$ortion is
partl( to $lame $eca"se it is ca"sing a shortage of 8merican workers.
'he report from the state 4o"se Special ommittee on 3mmigration Geform also claims 1li$eral
social welfare policies1 ha2e disco"raged 8mericans from working and enco"raged immigrants to
cross the $order illegall(.
'he statements a$o"t a$ortion, welfare policies and a recommendation to a$olish income taxes in
fa2or of sales taxes were inserted into the immigration report $( the committee chairman, Gep. Bd
Bmer(.
8ll six Democrats on the panel ref"sed to sign the report. Some of them called the a$ortion
assertion ridic"lo"s and em$arrassing.
1'here!s a lot of editorial comment there that 3 co"ldn!t reall( stomach,1 Gep. 'rent Skaggs said
,onda(. 1'o $e honest, 3 think it!s a little del"sional.1
8ll )- Gep"$lican committee mem$ers signed the report, tho"gh one of them, Gep. %ill( 7at ;right,
said ,onda( he didn!t recall it connecting a$ortion and illegal immigration.
Bmer(, who e9"ates a$ortion to m"rder, defended the assertions.
1;e hear a lot of arg"ments toda( that the reason that we can!t get serio"s a$o"t o"r $orders is
that we are desperate for all these workers,1 Bmer( said. 1Mo" don!t ha2e to think too long. 3f (o"
kill ++ million of (o"r potential workers, it!s not too s"rprising we wo"ld $e desperate for workers.1
Kational Gight to 5ife estimates there ha2e $een more than +. million a$ortions since the S"preme
o"rt esta$lished a woman!s right to a$ortion in its )/.H Goe 2. ;ade r"ling. 'he immigration
report estimates there are :-,--- fewer ,isso"rians $eca"se of a$ortion, man( of whom now wo"ld
ha2e $een in a 1highl( prod"cti2e age gro"p for workers.1
'he a$ortion connection to illegal immigration was listed "nder the report!s recommendations on
federal social policies and potential state legislati2e actions on illegal hiring.
1S"ggestions for how to stop illegal hiring 2aried witho"t an( simple sol"tion,1 the report states.
1'he lack of traditional work ethic, com$ined with the eDects of H- (ears of a$ortion and expanding
li$eral social welfare policies ha2e prod"ced a shortage of workers and a lack of incenti2e for those
who can work.1
LinkLegal Services
Impro,ements in t(e legal s+stem entice immigrants German+ empiricall+
pro,es
Aleini&oB $. 'ro0essor o0 Aaw at t(e 2ni,ersit+ o0 !ic(igan HT.Ale)ander K'AITI-AA
ASFA2! IN TH" @"?"EAA E"'2%AI- @ G"E!ANF AN? TH" E"'2%AI- @ @EAN-"5
A"SSNS @E TH" 2NIT"? STAT"SL Ae)is Ne)is7
3f these policies 2irt"all( in2ited aliens to appl(, the ;est Oerman legal s(stem ens"red them a
length( time to enFo( the $ene0ts. 'he right to as(l"m nLR and F"dicial re2iew of administrati2e
determinations nL. are sec"red $( the Oerman onstit"tion. 8s implemented $( stat"tes, these
constit"tional pro2isions formerl( ga2e rise to administrati2e and F"dicial proceedings that
reg"larl( took three to 02e (ears to complete [^)//] and often took m"ch longer. nL: 'he legal
process itself, therefore, created incenti2es for potential as(l"m claimants: whether or not one!s
claim was "ltimatel( granted, the process promised to take so long that e2en aliens with patentl(
fri2olo"s claims wo"ld $e g"aranteed a long sta( in Oerman(.
Aegal Ser,ice pro,iders want to (elp out immigrant populations
-'"E #4 8ournalist in New For&* w(o specialiMes in topics o0 (uman rig(ts and
8ustice. Wit( a 1ac&ground as a law+er* s(e wor&ed 0or legal ser,ices 0or two and a
(al0 +ears [(nthia 5., B9"al >"stice ,aga#ine, Winter 2##4 N Dol. . No. 27
5S&f"nded legal ser2ices programs, while working within the ongressional restrictions and 5S
g"idelines, are reaching o"t in increasing n"m$ers to immigrant comm"nities from e2er( continent
and circ"mstance. 3n accordance with 5S reg"lations =+L FG )R*RC and applica$le laws, 5S
grantees ma( not assist illegal aliens, according to ,attie . ondra(, Senior 8ssistant Oeneral
o"nsel at the 5egal Ser2ices orporation. %"t program oDices ma( represent some income&
9"ali0ed aliens, s"ch as lawf"l permanent residents =1green card1 holdersC, speci0ed ref"gees and
as(l"m seekers, certain immigrants who, as spo"ses, children, or parents, are related to U.S.
citi#ens, and other speci0call( designated gro"ps.
Some immigrants ma( 9"alif( for a more limited form of legal representation. ,igrant farmworkers
with g"est 2isas, for example, ma( $e represented on pro$lems related to their work contract.
Jictims of h"man traDicking =see side$arC ma( $e pro2ided legal assistance if the( are helping to
prosec"te the traDickers, and parents of children a$d"cted to another co"ntr( ma( also o$tain legal
help.
,an( of these reg"lations are complex, note the a"thors of 1Gepresenting 3mmigrants: ;hat do
5S Geg"lations 8llowQ1 =learingho"se Ge2iew >o"rnal of 7o2ert( 5aw and 7olic(, Sept&@ct *--+C.
3n it, three specialists&Kational 3mmigration 5aw enter =K35C attorne( Sara ampos in @akland,
K35 Bxec"ti2e Director 5inton >oa9"in in 5os 8ngeles, and Sheila Ke2ille, staD attorne( at the
5S&f"nded 5egal 8id Fo"ndation of 5os 8ngeles&pro2ide the most comprehensi2e anal(sis of
allowa$le 5S representation. ,an( 5S&f"nded programs sometimes 1"nwittingl(1 t"rn awa(
eligi$le clients, the( sa(. 3n addition, the( point o"t, in non&case&related matters of ed"cation,
information and referrals, 5S&f"nded programs are permitted to pro2ide important ser2ices to
comm"nities with immigrant pop"lations.
GeEecting a large wa2e of immigration since )//-, legal ser2ices programs enco"nter wide swaths
of client pop"lations with diDerent lang"ages and c"lt"res who are eligi$le for, and desperatel(
need, aid of all t(pes. 5egal ser2ices oDices are disco2ering inno2ati2e wa(s to ser2e this new
clientele in $oth da(&to&da( iss"es, s"ch as ho"sing, $ene0ts, cons"mer and famil( law, $"t also in
"ni9"e iss"es, s"ch as the re"ni0cation of families across $orders.
8ccording to U.S. ens"s %"rea" 0g"res, the immigrant pop"lation increased $( L. percent
$etween )//- and *---. 3mmigrants acco"nted for )) percent of the U.S. pop"lation in *---. 'he
2ast maForit(, :L percent, li2e in a ho"sehold with at least one citi#en. 3n total, immigrants and 0rst&
generation citi#ens acco"nt for LR million people nationwide.
18mong the man( 2ast changes that aDect how and what ser2ices 5S programs pro2ide to clients,
none is more signi0cant than the high n"m$er of immigrants that ha2e come to the United States
o2er the past few decades,1 $egan a Decem$er R, *--+, 5S program letter on e2al"ating ser2ices
to people with limited Bnglish pro0cienc(.
'he legal ser2ices pop"lation is especiall( aDected $( the growth in immigration $eca"se of high
po2ert( rates. 8ccording to the *--- U.S. ens"s, nearl( ). percent of the immigrant pop"lation is
poor, while onl( )).* percent of the non&immigrant pop"lation li2es in po2ert(. For new immigrants,
those 0g"res rise e2en higher to a *H.L percent rate.
Link Death Check
?ecreased ?eat( Eates are t(e main cause o0 population growt(
Statement o0 4$ o0 t(e Worlds Scientifc Academies, 9"oted in 7a"l and 8nne Bhrlich,
%B'G8M85 @F S3BKB 8KD GB8S@K, 1::/, p *H+.
'he world is in the midst of an "nprecedented expansion of h"man n"m$ers. 3t took
h"ndreds of tho"sands of (ears for o"r species to reach a pop"lation le2el of )- million,
onl( )-,--- (ears ago. 'his n"m$er grew to )-- million people a$o"t *,--- (ears ago and
to *.L $illion $( )/L-. ;ithin less than the span of a single lifetime, it has more than
do"$led to L.L $illion in )//H. 'his accelerated pop"lation growth res"lted from rapidl(
lowered death rates =partic"larl( infant and child moralit( ratesC, com$ined with s"stained
high $irth rates. S"ccess in red"cing death rates is attri$"ta$le to se2eral factors;
increases in food prod"ction and distri$"tion, impro2ements in p"$lic health =;ater and
sanitationC and in medical technolog( =2accines and anti$ioticsC, along with gains in
ed"cation and standards of li2ing within man( de2eloping nations.
?eat( rates are &e+ to c(ec&ing population growt(
Gim1all3 / =>ohn, 7rofessor of %iolog( at '"fts Uni2ersit( ?4"man 7op"lation OrowthA
http://"sers.rcn.com/Fkim$all.ma."ltranet/%iolog(7ages/;/;elcome.htmlC
8ltho"gh the 2al"e of r is aDected $( $oth $irth rate and death rate, the recent histor( of
the h"man pop"lation has $een aDected more $( declines in death rates than $( increases
in $irth rates. 'he graph shows $irth and death rates in ,exico since )/H-. 'he
introd"ction of p"$lic health meas"res, s"ch as $etter n"trition greater access to medical
care impro2ed sanitation more widespread imm"ni#ation has prod"ced a rapid decline in
death rates, $"t "ntil recentl( there was no corresponding decline in $irth rates. 3n *--R,
r is )..N. =Data from the 7op"lation Geference %"rea".C 8ltho"gh death rates declined in
all age gro"ps, the red"ction among infants and children had S and will contin"e to ha2e
S the greatest impact on pop"lation growth. 'his is $eca"se the( will soon $e ha2ing
children of their own. 'his sit"ation, res"lting in a rapid rate of pop"lation growth, is
characteristic of man( of the poorer regions of the world.
?rops in mortalit+ cause population e)pansion
2nited Nations 'opulation @und3 1::: =?7op"lation hange and 7eople!s hoicesA
http://www."nfpa.org/swp/)////chapter*c.htmC
'he most important stor( $ehind the rapid rise from H to R $illion people since )/R- is the
"nprecedented drop in mortalit(. 'his trend act"all( $egan in the )/th and earl( *-th
cent"r(, $"t intensi0ed after ;orld ;ar 33 as $asic sanitation, clean drinking water and
modern health care $ecame more a2aila$le in larger areas of the world. Since )/L-, the
death rate has $een c"t in half, from a$o"t *- to fewer than )- deaths per (ear per
tho"sand people. 8t the same time, a2erage glo$al life expectanc( has risen from +R to RR
(ears.
'he worldIs pop"lation is healthier from infanc( thro"gh old age than it e2er has $een.
Olo$al infant mortalit( has fallen $( two thirds since )/L-, from )LL per tho"sand li2e
$irths to L. per tho"sand; this rate is proFected to $e red"ced $( a f"rther two thirds $(
*-L-. ,aternal mortalit( has also declined, $"t m"ch more slowl( and less generall( =see
hapter HC. @ther promising health trends incl"de impro2ements in imm"ni#ation le2els
and health ed"cation. @ne positi2e eDect of lengthening life&spans and $etter medical
treatment has $een that the ann"al n"m$er of deaths act"all( fell $( more than )- per
cent $etween )/LL and )/.L e2en as nearl( ).L $illion people were added to the world
pop"lation. S"$se9"entl( the n"m$er of deaths $egan to increase. 'he c"rrent n"m$er of
deaths per (ear, L* million, is the same as in )/L-, when the pop"lation was less than half
the si#e it is toda(.
link voluntary family planning
Doluntar+ 0amil+ planning empiricall+ doesnCt reduce 0ertilit+
"1erstadt. 2##2 < senior fellow at the 8merican Bnterprise 3nstit"te =Kicholas,
7op"lation Sense and Konsense. 8B3 @nline, //),
http://www.aei.org/p"$lications/p"$3D.)+*/+,0lter./p"$Pdetail.aspC
8s for the relationship $etween fertilit( and the a2aila$ilit( of modern contracepti2es =or
national programs to s"$sidi#e or enco"rage their "seC, incon2enient facts m"st once
again $e faced. 'he "tili#ation rates for modern contracepti2e methods are not a relia$le
indicator of a societ(!s fertilit( le2el. 3n the earl( )//-s, among married women ages
0fteen to fort(&nine, Wim$a$we!s rate of modern contracepti2e "se was three times as high
as Gomania!s =+* percent 2s. )+ percentC&&(et Gomania!s estimated total fertilit( rate was
a$o"t ).+ whereas Wim$a$we!s was a$o"t +.). S(ria!s rate of modern contracepti2e
pre2alence was likewise higher than 5ith"ania!s =*/ percent 2s. ** percent&&(et S(ria!s
total fertilit( rate was three times the 5ith"anian le2el =+.R 2s. ).LC. F"rther s"ch examples
a$o"nd.
;hat is more, the independent inE"ence of national pop"lation programs on national $irth
rates appears to $e m"ch more limited than enth"siasts are willing to recogni#e. 8
comparison of ,exico and %ra#il, 5atin 8merica!s two most pop"lo"s co"ntries, ill"strates
the point. Since )/.+, the ,exican go2ernment has sponsored a national famil( planning
program expressl( committed to red"cing the co"ntr(!s rate of pop"lation growth. %ra#il,
$( contrast, has ne2er implemented a national famil( planning program. 3n the 9"arter
cent"r( after the introd"ction of ,exico!s national pop"lation program, ,exican fertilit(
le2els fell $( an estimated LR percent. 3n %ra#il, d"ring the same period, fertilit( is
estimated to ha2e declined $( L+ percent&&an almost identical proportion. 8nd despite the
a$sence of a national famil( planning program, %ra#il!s fertilit( le2els toda( remain lower
than ,exico!s.
3n the 0nal anal(sis, the single $est predictor of fertilit( le2els t"rns o"t to $e desired
fertilit( le2els&&the n"m$er of children that women sa( the( wo"ld like to ha2e. 7erhaps
this sho"ld not $e s"rprising: 7arents tend to ha2e strong opinions a$o"t important
matters pertaining to their famil(; parents tend to act on the $asis of those opinions; and
e2en in the 'hird ;orld, parents do not $elie2e that $a$ies are fo"nd "nder ca$$ages. 'he
primac( of desired fertilit( explains wh( $irth rates can $e higher in regions where
contracepti2e "tili#ation rates are also higher: For it is parents, not pills, that make the
0nal choice a$o"t famil( si#e.
For ad2ocates of 1sta$ili#ing world pop"lation,1 the predominance of parental preferences
in determining $irth rates creates an awkward dilemma. 3f parental preferences reall(
r"le, and a go2ernment sets oDicial pop"lation targets for a 2ol"ntar( famil( planning
program, those targets are not likel( to $e met. 3ndeed, if parents are permitted to p"rs"e
the famil( si#e the( choose, national pop"lation programs can onl( meet their targets $(
complete and "tter chance.
Doluntar+ population management will not wor&* it (as to 1e en0orced 1+ t(e
go,ernment
"1erstadt. 2##2 < senior fellow at the 8merican Bnterprise 3nstit"te =Kicholas,
7op"lation Sense and Konsense. 8B3 @nline, //),
http://www.aei.org/p"$lications/p"$3D.)+*/+,0lter./p"$Pdetail.aspC
@n the other hand, if a go2ernment sets pop"lation targets and wishes to stand a
reasona$le chance of achie2ing them, the mischie2o"s independence of parental
preferences means that 2ol"ntar( pop"lation programs cannot $e relied "pon. 3f states,
rather than parents, are to determine a societ(!s preferred child$earing patterns,
go2ernments m"st $e a$le to force parents to adhere to the oDiciall( appro2ed
parameters. =hina!s draconian enforcement of a one&child polic(&&thro"gh forced
a$ortions, sterili#ations, and infanticide&&is onl( the most notorio"s example of a
go2ernment!s following thro"gh to its concl"sion the inescapa$le logic of the 1pop"lation
sta$ili#ation1 dogma.C
;hether the( recogni#e it or not, ad2ocates of anti&natal pop"lation programs m"st make
a fatef"l choice. 'he( m"st opt for 2ol"ntarism, in which case their pop"lation targets will
$e meaningless. @r the( m"st em$race coerci2e meas"res. 'here is no third wa(.
link voluntary family planning
-oercion is t(e onl+ wa+ to reduce population enoug( to ft t(e carr+ing capacit+
Gudor0 :/ =hristine, professor of religio"s st"dies at Flordia 3nternational Uni2ersit(,
?Oender and "lt"re in the Olo$ali#ation of %ioethicsA, )L St. 5o"is U. 7"$. 5. Ge2. HHH,
4ein @nline, 8OC
'he )//+ United Kations! 3nternational onference on 7op"lation and De2elopment =37DC
in airo declared that eDorts to limit pop"lation growth co"ld and wo"ld a2oid national
pop"lation targets and the res"lting coercion that a n"m$er of nations had "sed in the past to
o$tain those targets.RH 'he 37D constr"cted an agenda for achie2ing conditions "nder which co"ples aro"nd the world wo"ld 2ol"ntaril( ha2e fewer children. 'hese
conditions incl"de: lowering infant and child mortalit( thro"gh increased access to pota$le water and child imm"ni#ations; increasing the health, ed"cation, and
stat"s of women; and, of co"rse, making eDecti2e means of contraception a2aila$le to the +.- million women who desire it $"t lack access.R/ 'here is no do"$t that
this agenda sho"ld $e the fo"ndation of glo$al pop"lation concern. %"t, "nfort"natel(, to the extent that this agenda
aims at totall( non&coerci2e sol"tions to o2erpop"lation, it is doomed 0rom t(e start to
some degree of fail"re. ;e ha2e simpl( waited too long in that we do not ha2e eno"gh
lead&time left to make totall( 2ol"ntar( means work..- 'he present pop"lation of the world is close to six $illion people..!
'he most optimistic pop"lation proFection p"$lished $( the United Kations pres"mes that $eginning in )//-, the glo$al total fertilit( rate of H.+ children per woman
drops 9"ickl( to sta$ili#e at ).. children per woman, signi0cantl( $elow the h"man replacement rate of *.) children per woman..* %ased on this ).. fertilit( rate,
world pop"lation si#e wo"ld rise signDicantl(, then resta$ili#e at six $illion in *)--.TT 7resentl(, howe2er, we are six (ears into this scenario, and there is no e2idence
s"pporting s"ch a dramatic trend. 3n a second United Kations scenario, if the world fertilit( rate from )//- onward was the replacement rate, *.) children per woman,
the si#e of the (o"th pop"lation in the de2eloping nations wo"ld dictate that the world pop"lation in *)-- wo"ld $e eight $illion..+ 3n a third scenario, if the
)//* world fertilit( rate of H.+ children per woman contin"es to decline then 9"ickl(
sta$ili#es at *.L children per woman, we wo"ld ha2e a pop"lation of nineteen $illion in
*)--, and world pop"lation wo"ld still $e growing..L 'h"s, the lowest pla"si$le, if still
optimistic, proFection is that of eight $illion people $( *-H-, and ten $illion people $(
*)--..R ,an( so"rces agree that e2en if fertilit( contin"es to decline aro"nd the world, we ma( well face a world pop"lation of twel2e $illion people, do"$le the
present n"m$er, $( *l--. 8t the same time, ecologists! estimates of the carr(ing capacit( of the earth o2er the next se2eral cent"ries range from a conser2ati2e 0g"re
of one to two $illion people with a cons"mption rate $ased on that of present&da( de2eloped nations, to a li$eral 0g"re of eight $illion who cons"me at an ade9"ate $"t
m"ch red"ced le2el from that of de2eloped nations toda(..: Oi2en present trends regarding glo$al warming, o#one
holes, dropping glo$al water ta$les, decreasing densit( in the oceanic 0sheries, galloping
deforestation, topsoil erosion, and decerti0cation, not to mention increasing air and water
poll"&tion,./ there is little reason to $elie2e that these estimates for the carr(ing capacit(
will impro2e o2er the next few decades. 3n fact, man( de2eloping nations are F"st
$eginning to recogni#e, record, and report 2ario"s t(pes of ecological damage.:- 'he
likelihood is that o"r knowledge of local threats to the glo$al ecos(stem will contin"e to
increase. @"r earth is o2erstrained toda( $( a com$ination of poor "se of farmland, poor extraction methods, excessi2e "se of
fossil f"els, o2er0shing, o2er"se of toxic chemicals and radioacti2e materials, and poor disposal of excessi2e amo"nts of h"man generated waste.:! 'he longer
that o2erstrain contin"es, the smaller the pop"lation si#e the earth can s"pport in the
immediate f"t"re and still regain its capacit( to s"stain life . We are 0aced wit( t(e
necessit+ not 8ust o0 slowing population growt(* 1ut o0 actuall+ reducing t(e siMe
o0 t(e (uman population $( somewhere in the neigh$orhood of three to six $illion people, at least a 9"arter of the world!s pop"lation, if we
"se the most optimistic estimates of the earth!s carr(ing capacit(. 3f we agree with the most conser2ati2e estimates of the earth!s carr(ing capacit( in the twent(&0rst
cent"r(, then we m"st prepare to red"ce o"r pop"lation $( six to ten $illion people, a red"ction of $etween three&fo"rths and 02e&sixths of the total, within a cent"r(.
T(ere can 1e little dou1t t(at reductions o0 twent+3f,e to eig(t+ percent will
reOuire some 0orm o0 coercion.
T(ere is no lin& 1etween ,oluntar+ contraception and 0ertilit+ onl+ coercion
would wor&
"1erstadt* #9 senior fellow at the 8merican Bnterprise 3nstit"te =Kicholas, ?%eware the
7op"lation 8larmists,A ./*, http://aei.org/p"$lications/0lter.all,p"$3D.*R+*./p"$Pdetail.aspC
'his 1health explosion1 ca"sed the 1pop"lation explosion1&&and this dramatic, ongoing health s"rge is in large part d"e to "nprecedented and extraordinar(
impro2ements in material li2ing standards, partic"larl( o2er the past few decades. Food contin"es to $ecome cheaper and medical technolog( contin"es to impro2e.
Ke2ertheless, proponents of pop"lation sta$ili#ation worr( that h"man n"m$ers will more than do"$le o2er the coming cent"r( "nless go2ernments take action. %"t
their plans to control pop"lation $( imposing state&mandated famil( planning ha2e no scienti0c $asis. Olo$all(, there is no ca"sati2e link
$etween the a2aila$ilit( of contraception and fertilit( le2els&&the rate of contraception "se
is 2irt"all( identical in >ordan and >apan, for instance, $"t >ordan!s fertilit( rate is more
than three times higher. 3n )/.+ ,exico $ro"ght in, a national famil(&planning program.
%ra#il has ne2er implemented s"ch a program $"t, d"ring the following *L (ears, ,exican
and %ra#ilian fertilit( le2els fell at nearl( identical rates. 'he tr"th is that parental
preference is the ke( determinant of famil( si#e amongst illiterate people in poor
co"ntries, F"st as it is among ed"cated people in rich co"ntries. 8nti&natal pop"lation plans
are therefore f"tile&&"nless the( follow hina!s lead and impose coercion with its terri$le
conse9"ences. 8t an( gi2en income le2el&&incl"ding e2en 2er( low income le2els&&parents
aro"nd the world ha2e $een opting for fewer children since the )/R-s. 8s a res"lt, f"t"re
world pop"lation ma( $e far lower than the pop"lation alarmists ha2e imagined, and
1world pop"lation sta$ili#ation1 will $e achie2ed witho"t the emergenc( go2ernment
inter2entions the( ad2ocate.
Links: Generic
Access to Social Ser,ices* including education and in0ormation access* (as a
dramatic impact on li0e e)pectanc+ and population
Bennett, 2000UK Department of International Development, promotin !evelopment in the re!"ction of poverty # of increa$in
pro!"ction% $ome c"rrent per$pective$,& 'ric"lt"re, (co$y$tem$, ) (nvironment, *cience Direct+
$9u,ationG partic"larl( of womenG a,,ess to so,ial ser)i,es an9 im&ro)e9 em&lo6ment o&&ortunities ha)e ha9 the most
9ramati, im&a,t on li0e e%&e,tan,6 and famil( si#es in man6 so,ieties. Im&ro)e9 a,,ess to me9ia an9 in0ormation,
co"pled with the spread of democrac( and economic growth and ed"cation, ha)e increased
demands and raised lifest(le aspirations and lengthene9 li0e e%&e,tation. 'he demands ha2e
increased for energ(, food, 0$re and other primar( commodities, shelter and other goods
and ser2ices we expect from the nat"ral en2ironment, for example, leis"re facilities and
impro2ed li2ing en2ironments. 'he growth in pop"lations, "r$anisation and wealth will
increase the demand for li2ing space, infrastr"ct"re and other land&$ased ser2ices.
7ress"res on water reso"rces will also grow. 3mpro2ed comm"nications and infrastr"ct"re
ha2e res"lted in a growing integration of markets world wide. 'his trend is often referred
to as `glo$alisationI, and it aDects competition, trade, in2estment, information, the media,
to"rism, the en2ironment and la$o"r markets. ;hile there are man( who wo"ld like to p"t
the clock $ack, and re2erse the trends in glo$al integration S it is here to sta(.
Olo$alisation presents challenges and opport"nities. 'he 0rst challenge m"st $e to ens"re
these powerf"l forces $ene0t the poor and marginalised and the en2ironment does not
s"Der.
!alt(usian t(eor+ suggests t(at wel0are loc&s t(e poor into a moral restraint to
pre,ent population growt(
Dobel$tein, ,,Sprofessor of social work at the Uni2ersit( of Korth arolina hapel 4ill,
teaching social welfare polic( =8ndrew ;. , ?,oral 8"thorit(, 3deolog(, and the F"t"re of
8merican Social ;elfare,A p. RH, google$ooksC
,alth"sian doctrine, as reasona$le as it seemed, was hard to accept as a sol"tion to the
growing concerns a$o"t the 7oor 5aws and their implementation. Malthus suggeste9 that i0 nature
,oul9 o00er no solution other than the ine)ita4leG OnaturalP solutionG an6 interru&tion in the ,6,le he 0ore,ast must ,ome 0rom
some 2in9 o0 moral restraintSprod"cing fewer children, keeping families on the farm where $(
greater la$or the( co"ld prod"ce more rather than r"nning oD to the cities in search of
wealth, and so forth. A4olishing the >oor /a-s -oul9 hel&G Malthus 4elie)e9G 4e,ause as long as relie0 -as a)aila4leG
the &oor -oul9 not 4e in,line9 to e%ert the moral restraints ne,essar6 to &re)ent &o&ulation gro-th $e(ond the food
s"ppl(.
Eapidl+ increasing demands 0or social ser,ices (arm t(e protection o0 natural
resources and (eig(ten t(e need 0or population control
*itar-, ,3 .hD, attorney, a"thor, lect"rer, e!"cator, an! b"$ine$$ entreprene"r, In /,,2, in cooperation 0ith the Unite! 1ation$ 2onference
on (nvironment an! Development, he 0rote an! e!ite! the pop"lar abri!e! ver$ion of the central areement of the (arth *"mmit% 'en!a
2/% 3he (arth *"mmit *tratey to *ave o"r .lanet4 =Daniel, )//H, ?8genda *): 'he Barth S"mmit Strateg(
'o Sa2e @"r 7lanet,A Barth7ress, p ++C
'he spiraling growth of world pop"lation f"els the growth of glo$al prod"ction and
cons"mption. <a&i9l6 in,reasing 9eman9s 0or natural resour,esG em&lo6mentG e9u,ation an9 so,ial ser)i,es ma2e an6
attem&ts to &rote,t natural resour,es an9 im&ro)e li)ing stan9ar9s )er6 9i00i,ult. !here is an imme9iate nee9 to 9e)elo&
strategies aime9 at ,ontrolling -orl9 &o&ulation gro-th
Links: Generic
&althus himself argued that '(oor Laws) or social services are terrible
Univer$ity of Wi$con$in, no !ate iven =Uni2ersit( of ;isconsin, ,arathon o"nt(, no date gi2en,
?'homas ,alth"sI 2iews on pop"lation,A a
http://www.marathon."wc.ed"/geograph(/demotrans/mal$ox.htm b C
'homas Malthus =).RR&):H+C p"$lished his theor( of pop"lation =18n essa( on the principle
of pop"lation1C in )./:. 3n it he lai9 out the argument that there e%iste9 in the -orl9 a ,onstant &ressure to-ar9s
&o&ulation gro-th -hi,h -as ,ountera,te9 throughout histor6 46 H&ositi)e ,he,2sH that incl"ded 1war, famine,
and disease1. 4e arg"ed that food shortages, in partic"lar, were ine2ita$le as pop"lation
grew $eca"se pop"lation co"ld grow geometricall( =$"ild "pon itself: *,+,:,)R...C whereas
food prod"ction co"ld grow onl( arithmeticall( =*,H,+,L...C. 4ence, according to this
1,alth"sian B9"ation1, pop"lation wo"ld soon o"tstrip a2aila$le food. 8 rise in pop"lation
wo"ld soon $e checked $( a rise in the death rate. ,alth"s was a clerg(man in the h"rch
of Bngland, and "ltimatel( he arg"ed that this $alance was part of the Di2ine @rder of the
world =see excerptsC. @ne conse9"ence of this was that the h"rch of Bngland opposed
$irth control "p "ntil the )/H-s. ,"ch of his arg"ment was directed at the relati2e growth
of diDerent classes within the pop"lation of Bngland. 'hose who did not practice
1pre2entati2e checks1 on their famil( si#e wo"ld soon o"tstrip their means and so fall in
stat"s. For ,alth"s the onl( accepta$le pre2entati2e check was dela(ing marriage "ntil
one was 0nanciall( a$le to s"pport a famil(. %irth control, inside or o"tside of marriage, he
2iewed as a 12ice1 =an 1improper art1C that threatened the moral order of societ(.
Ultimatel(, in his 2iew, &o)ert6 e%iste9 4e,ause o0 gro-th in 0amil6 siLe ,ause9 46 a la,2 o0 sel0 restraintG an9 the &oorG
as a ,lassG ha9 entirel6 themsel)es to 4lame 0or their situation. 'herefore he o&&ose9 H>oor /a-sH that -oul9 &ro)i9e
su&&ort to the &oor on the groun9s that su,h su&&ort -oul9 onl6 rein0or,e their la,2 o0 restraint at the e%&ense o0 others in
so,iet6. Su,h la-s -oul9 un9ermine the 0a4ri, o0 so,iet6 =see excerptsC. 3n the world toda( one hears
2ario"s echoes of ,alth"s: First, in the 2iew that "ltimatel( pop"lation growth is the ca"se
of po2ert(, famine and en2ironmental degradation; second, in the arg"ments of Oarrett
4ardin regarding the 1'raged( of the ommons1; and third, in the 1welfare1 de$ate in the
United States in which some arg"e that welfare is the ca"se of single parenthood. S"ch
2iews are termed 1Keo&,alth"sian1.
Links: Health Care
'opulation increases wit( more a,aila1le medicine and impro,ed li,ing conditions
U1.5', ,,an international !evelopment aency that promote$ the riht of every 0oman, man an! chil! to en6oy a life of health an! e7"al
opport"nity4 =United Kations 7op"lation F"nd, ?Olo$al 7op"lation 4its R %illion,A Septem$er
*R, )/// a http://www."nfpa.org/swp/)////newsfeat"re).htmbC
7lo4al &o&ulation has qua9ru&le9 this ,entur6G gro-ing 0aster than at an6 time in &re)ious histor6. 8t the $eginning of
the *-th cent"r(, the worldIs pop"lation was approximatel( ).L $illion. 3n )/*. it reached
* $illion; in )/R-, H $illion; in )/.+, + $illion; in )/:., L $illion; and on )* @cto$er )/// it
will hit R $illion. Kearl( half of all people on earth will $e "nder *L. 'oda( &eo&le li)e longer
and healthier li)es than e)er 4e0ore. Mo9ern me9i,ine an9 4etter li)ing ,on9itions ha)e 9ramati,all6 lo-ere9 the glo4al
9eath rateG es&e,iall6 0or in0ants an9 ,hil9ren. Since )/L-, a)erage li0e e%&e,tan,6 has risen 0rom 46 to 66 6ears. 8
growing maForit( of women and men ha2e the information and means to make choices
a$o"t the n"m$er and spacing of their children. 4owe2er, there are still a $illion peopleS
one person in sixSli2ing in po2ert(.
*niversal +ccess to health care has proven to decreased the amount of deaths in senior citi,ens
3emal et alG +**8"-&, (h", .pidemiology and Surveillance /esearch, +merican 0ancer Society, 1+hmedin,
'2idening of Socioeconomic Ine3ualities in *4S4 "eath /ates, 5667-$005,) pLos one, $0084 9
http%880004plo$one4or8article8info%!oi8/04/39/86o"rnal4pone40002/:/: ;
Finall(, the generaliLa4ilit6 o0 our 0in9ings to all age grou&s -ithin the U.S. ma6 4e limite9 in that the e9u,ational gra9ient
at ages 65 an9 a4o)e ma6 4e narro-e9 46 uni)ersal a,,ess to health ,are through Me9i,are. 4owe2er, 9eaths in ages +55
64 are o0 so,ietal im&ortan,e 4e,ause the6 a00e,t in9i)i9uals an9 0amilies most li2el6 in the -or20or,eG raising ,hil9ren an9#or
su&&orting other 0amil6 mem4ers. 'he generali#a$ilit( of o"r 0ndings ma( also $e aDected slightl(
$( excl"sion of data from se2en states with incomplete reporting of ed"cation on death
certi0cates. 'he H.LN of decedents with missing ed"cation information on their death
certi0cates were excl"ded from the n"merator, $"t not the denominator, of the st"d(
pop"lation =remaining +H states and District of olom$iaC. 'he percentage of decedents
with missing information on ed"cation was slightl( higher in )//H =+..NC than in *--)
=*.:NC. ;e assessed whether this might aDect the interpretation of o"r trends. 8nal(ses
that meas"red the temporal trends witho"t excl"sion of deaths with missing ed"cation
information slightl( strengthened the decreasing trends for some ca"ses and weakened
the increasing mortalit( trends for others. 4owe2er, none of these diDerences aDected o"r
main 0ndings.
Public health access and spending has a proven effect upon life expectancy
3immer, ,4 $erve! a$ the 3homa$ D4 2abot .rofe$$or of Development *t"!ie$ at ;arvar! Univer$ity an! a$ !ean of the <ra!"ate *chool
of International =elation$ an! .acific *t"!ie$ >I=8.*+ at the Univer$ity of 2alifornia, *an Dieo, $erve! a$ an a!vi$or to the overnment$ of
In!one$ia, ?ietnam, 2hina, an! the .hilippine$, in the area$ of aric"lt"ral policy an! economic !evelopment4 =. 7eter, ,a(,
)//+ ?7op"lation, 7o2ert(, 7olitics,A 'he 8merican Bconomic Ge2iew, Jol. :+, Ko. *, p *R*&
*RH, >S'@GC
S"dhir 8nand and ,artin Ga2allion =)//H p. )+.C address the iss"es of pri2ate incomes
and p"$lic ser2ices directl(:
'he cross&co"ntr( e2idence assem$led here s"ggests that, at least for $asic health, a)erage
a00luen,e matters to the e%tent that it 9eli)ers lo-er Ni.e. lessQ in,ome &o)ert6 an9 4etter &u4li, ser)i,es. 3ndeed, the
,ommonl6 o4ser)e9 &ositi)e ,orrelation a,ross ,ountries 4et-een li0e e%&e,tan,6 an9 a00luen,e )anishes on,e one ,ontrols 0or
in,i9en,e o0 &o)ert6 an9 &u4li, s&en9ing on health. ='he same is tr"e for other health indicators.C
'ho"gh $oth these 2aria$les matter, it is nota$le that the 9"antitati2e signi0cance of
p"$lic health spending appears to $e si#a$le. :e attri4ute roughl6 t-o thir9s o0 the elasti,it6 o0 li0e
e%&e,tan,6 -ith res&e,t to a)erage in,ome to the &ositi)e e00e,t o0 in,ome on &u4li, health s&en9ingI the rest is
attri$"ted to the decrease in income po2ert( that t(picall( accompanies higher a2erage
incomes.
Links: Abortion
Loosening the restrictions on reproductive rights worsens overpopulation
"aily and .hrlich, *4 of 0alifornia 1<er=ley; and Stanford *4, 6>
V7ret,hen C an9 Anne 8G <es&onse to ?artlett an9 /6t-a2G 3ul6 15G >o&ulation an9 $n)ironment" A
3ournal o0 Inter9is,i&linar6 Stu9ies Solume 16G Num4er 6G 3ul6 15 htt&"##9ieo00.org#&age8.htmW
Ultimatel(, the s"ccess of an( polic( to control the si#e and composition of the U.S.
pop"lation will hinge "pon alle2iation of the "nderl(ing ca"ses of o2erpop"lation and mass
migration.;e 0nd it diDic"lt to en2ision an( morall( F"sti0a$le polic( that wo"ld precl"de
all immigration into the United States. Some le2el of admissions for famil(/h"manitarian
reasons pres"ma$l( sho"ld $e allowed $( a nation that is a self&professed model of
indi2id"al li$ert( and F"stice. 8t the 2er( least, circ"mstances and moralit( ma( often dictate pro2iding at least
temporar(, if not permanent, shelter for 2ictims of gross persec"tion. @n the other hand, the recent co"rt decision to confer
ref"gee stat"s "pon O"o h"ndi, a man claiming political persec"tion in hina $eca"se he and his wife had ref"sed to
compl( with hina!s one&child polic(, clearl( exceeded the limits of a reasona$le "nderstanding of persec"tion. Upon o"r
mentioning this case to the chief architect of hina!s famil( planning polic(, Dr. >iang Whengh"a, he $roke into a grin and
said, 1Fift( million will follow soonV1Ble2ation of indi2id"al reprod"cti2e rights a$o2e all other rights
and social responsi$ilities is not morall( F"sti0a$le and will onl( exacer$ate the pop"lation
pro$lem. ,oreo2er, the transnational migration of millions of people, while necessar( in extreme circ"mstances for
temporar( relief, is not a longterm sol"tion to h"man rights a$"ses.
Links: Education
Improving education would lower death rates?the opposite proves
3emal et alG +**8"-&, (h", .pidemiology and Surveillance /esearch, +merican 0ancer Society, 1+hmedin,
'2idening of Socioeconomic Ine3ualities in *4S4 "eath /ates, 5667-$005,) pLos one, $0084 9
http%880004plo$one4or8article8info%!oi8/04/39/86o"rnal4pone40002/:/: ;
Among menG the tem&oral 9e,rease in all ,ause 9eath rates 4e,ame larger -ith ea,h a99itional in,rement o0 e9u,ational
attainment. For example, the annual &er,entage 9e,rease among 4la,2 men -as +.6J 0or those -ith 1+ 6ears o0
e9u,ationG 4.*J in men -ith 11515 6ears o0 e9u,ationG an9 6.4J in those -ith X16 6ears o0 e9u,ation. 8mong women,
death rates from all ca"ses com$ined decreased d"ring this time inter2al onl( in $lack and
white women with c)R (ears of ed"cation. 'a$le * depicts trends in death rates from )//H
thro"gh *--) for persons with a)* (ears of ed"cation and for those with c)R (ears of
ed"cation for fo"r maFor ca"ses of death that are known to $e decreasing in the general
pop"lation. For all of these conditions, 9eath rates 9e,rease9 among the most e9u,ate9. 3n contrast, the
onl( condition for which the death rate decreased signi0cantl( among those with a)*
(ears of ed"cation was 43J infection among white men. For white women with a)* (ears
of ed"cation, the death rate from cancer increased $( ).)N per (ear and that from heart
disease and stroke increased $( ).:N ann"all( d"ring the same time inter2al. 'he trends
in death rates and the n"m$er of deaths in )//H and *--) for each race, sex, disease, and
ed"cation speci0c gro"p are pro2ided in 'a$les S* on the we$.
.ducation 3uality and health literacy greatly determine life e#pectancy
@emal et al, 200:D?M, .hD, (pi!emioloy an! *"rveillance =e$earch, 'merican 2ancer *ociety, >'hme!in, AWi!enin of
*ocioeconomic Ine7"alitie$ in U4*4 Death =ate$, /,,3B200/,& pCo$ one, 200:4 D
http%880004plo$one4or8article8info%!oi8/04/39/86o"rnal4pone40002/:/E +
/o-er e9u,ational attainmentG a mar2er o0 so,ioe,onomi, &ositionG is asso,iate9 -ith a host o0 en)ironmentalG so,ial an9
e,onomi, 0a,tors that 9etrimentall6 a00e,t health o)er a li0e time. 7eople with less ed"cation ha2e fewer
0nancial reso"rces, less access to health ins"rance or sta$le emplo(ment, and less health
literac(. Social and economic factors increase the 2"lnera$ilit( of low socioeconomic
comm"nities to risk factors s"ch as smoking, o$esit(, ph(sical inacti2it(, h(pertension, and
43J infection.[):]<[**] >eo&le -ithout health insuran,e are less li2el6 to re,ei)e 4asi, &re)enti)e ser)i,es or stan9ar9
timel6 treatment.[*H], [*+] !hose -ith lo-er health litera,6 are less li2el6 to see2 me9i,al attention 0or as6m&tomati,
,on9itions or to na)igate the health ,are s6stem e00e,ti)el6.N*L], [*R] 'he pre2alence of most maFor risk
factors remains m"ch higher among persons with lower than high socioeconomic position.
[*.]<[*/] 7rogress in red"cing smoking has $een slowest among the least ed"cated.[*.],
[H-] 'he pre2alence of o$esit(, h(pertension, and dia$etes has increased in all
socioeconomic position gro"ps in recent (ears.[*.], [H-]<[HH]
Links: Womens Rights
Impro,ing t(e Oualit+ o0 womenCs rig(ts leads to an increase in population ,ia li0e
e)pectanc+
.op"lation Me!ia 2enter, 200,S a pioneer in the "se of new methodologies for informing people
a$o"t reprod"cti2e health iss"es and promoting $eha2ior change. =3ss"es we 8ddress:
?;omenIs Bmpowerment,A *--/, a http://www.pop"lationmedia.org/iss"es/womens&
empowerment/b C
7romoting gender e9"it( is at the heart of 7,Is work. 8o- -ell a so,iet6 treats its -omen is one o0 the
strongest in9i,ators o0 the su,,ess an9 health o0 a so,iet6. ?6 &ro)i9ing girls -ith an e9u,ationG allo-ing -omen to ha)e a
)oi,e in 0amil6 9e,isionsG an9 &ro)i9ing -omen -ith o&&ortunities 0or e,onomi, 0ree9omG -e will 4uil9 stronger 0uture
generations. Dis,rimination against -omen an9 girls o,,urs in man6 0orms through gen9erA4ase9 )iolen,eG e,onomi,
9is,riminationG re&ro9u,ti)e health inequities an9 harm0ul tra9itional &ra,ti,es. 7, $elie2es em&o-ering -omen is a
2e6 ,om&onent in sta4iliLing &o&ulation gro-th and impro2ing the 9"alit( of life for all people. 'o
impro2e the stat"s of women aro"nd the world, we m"st com$at iss"es s"ch as gender&
$ased&2iolence and harmf"l traditional practices. 'hese practices diDer in 2ario"s societies
aro"nd the world; howe2er, whate2er form these practices take, the( are Eagrant
2iolations of $asic h"man rights and ca"se end"ring pain and s"Dering for millions of
women worldwide. Jiolence against women is pre2alent in e2er( co"ntr( in the world. 3n
de2eloping co"ntries, gender&$ased 2iolence is often a c"lt"rall( accepted occ"rrence.
S"r2e(s cond"cted in s"$&Saharan 8frica re2eal that +RN of Ugandan women, R-N of
'an#anian women, +*N of 6en(an women and +-N of Wam$ian women report reg"lar
ph(sical a$"se. 3n Kigeria, :)N of married women report $eing 2er$all( or ph(sicall(
a$"sed $( their h"s$ands, and +RN of those women reported $eing a$"sed in the presence
of their children. Siolen,e has a signi0i,ant im&a,t on the health an9 li0e e%&e,tan,6 o0 -omen.
Links: Homelessness
Sol,ing (omelessness would Ouic&l+ increase t(e populationP(omelessness (as
(ig( deat( rates due to ps+c(iatric illness* murder* and 0reeMing to deat(
3'2, 2009 F national nonprofit orani-ation !e!icate! to eliminatin barrier$ to the timely an! effective treatment of $evere mental !i$or!er$
>3reatment '!vocacy 2enter, 'pril 2009 A;omele$$ne$$% 3raic $i!e effect of nonBtreatment,&
http%880004p$ychla0$4or8eneral=e$o"rce$8fact//4htm +
^ 'here is e2idence that those -ho are homeless an9 su00ering 0rom a &s6,hiatri, illness ha)e a mar2e9l6 ele)ate9
9eath rate 0rom a )ariet6 o0 ,auses. 'his is not s"rprising since the homeless in general ha)e a three times higher
ris2 o0 9eath than the general &o&ulation an9 se)erel6 ill in9i)i9uals ha)e a +.4 times higher ris2 o0 9eath 9uring an6 6ear.
o 8s part of a )//* st"d( in Bngland, for example, in2estigators collected data for ):
months on +: homeless people who also had a se2ere mental illness. 'he( fo"nd that three
people had died from ph(sical ca"ses =i.e., aortic ane"r(sm, heart attack, and s"Docation
d"ring an epileptic 0tC, one had died in an accident, and three others had s"ddenl(
disappeared witho"t taking an( personal $elongings with them. Depending on whether or
not the missing participants were ali2e, the ):&month mortalit( rate was a minim"m of
eight percent and a maxim"m of )L percent.
^ 4omeless people with "ntreated $rain disorders fre9"entl( s"Der fatal accidents
ca"sed $( their impaired thinking.
o 8 )//- st"d( of homeless people p"$lished in 4ospital and omm"nit( 7s(chiatr(
fo"nd that +H percent of the cases showed the marked disorgani#ation of mental illness
and poor pro$lem&sol2ing skills =4.G. 5am$ X D.,. 5am$C. 3n an additional H- percent, the
s"$Fects were not onl( disorgani#ed $"t too paranoid to accept help. For example, two of
the people had a place to li2e, $"t were too paranoid and fearf"l to sta( there. ^ CreeLing to
9eath 9uring 4itter -eather is allAtooA,ommon among the homeless in generalG 4ut es&e,iall6 among those -ith s,hiLo&hrenia
an9 mani,A9e&ressi)e illness. 'hese deaths do not "s"all( attract m"ch attention, $"t on Ko2em$er
*/, )//H, in ;ashington, D, Metta 8dams was fo"nd fro#en to death on a $ench across the
street from the head9"arters of the Department of 4o"sing and Ur$an De2elopment
=4UDC. ,s. 8dams s"Dered from schi#ophrenia and alcoholism and was li2ing on the
streets. ;hen seeing a crowd o"tside his oDice, then&Secretar( of 4UD, 4enr( O.
isneros, left his oDice to 0nd o"t what had happened. 4e later wrote, 1Metta 8damsI
death Farred me and all m( colleag"es at 4UD, reminding "s that o"r societ( is $ecoming
an increasingl( hostile en2ironment for the homeless.1 ^ Mur9er is the most horri0i, ,ause o0 in,rease9
mortalit6 among those homeless in9i)i9uals -ith untreate9 &s6,hiatri, illnesses. ;hile no formal st"d( has $een
cond"cted, anecdotal e)i9en,e suggests that su,h 9eaths are not rare. o 3n 'ennessee, two (o"ng men
who ?came downtown with plans to ro"gh "p the people who spend their nights sleeping
on downtown streets,A killed 'ara ole $( p"shing her into the ri2er as she slept. ole, a
H*&(ear&old woman who had $een homeless for fo"r (ears, had famil( and friends who
wanted to help her, $"t she didnIt think she was ill and had stopped taking medication for
$ipolar disorder. o 3n )//H, three men and a woman, ages )/ to **, $eat a homeless man
to death with $ase$all $ats as part of a gang initiation. Gandall 'ownsend, +*, had a se2ere
mental illness and was li2ing "nder a $ridge. @ne assailant hit him in the face so hard that
the $at $roke. 'he other assailants then p"nched and kicked him and dropped a $o"lder
on his face. 'ownsend ne2er regained conscio"sness and died from head inF"ries. o 3n
)/:/, three (o"ng men sa2agel( $eat Jan ,ill, a ))-&po"nd man with paranoid&
schi#ophrenia who was li2ing in a tent in Des ,oines, 38, to death. 8fter ro$$ing and
assa"lting him, the Des ,oines Gegister reported that 1the( threw him into an empt(
wading pool at the park and at least one of them F"mped "p and down on his chest,
cr"shing his small frame, police said.1 o 3n a )/:: case in ;ashington, D, Blla Starks, a
ps(chiatricall( ill woman who had $een homeless for )- (ears, was raped and according to
a news stor( in the ;ashington 7ost was 1sta$$ed repeatedl(, and died of asph(xiation
when an "m$rella was forced down her throat.1
Links: Marijuana
Studies wit( rats s(ow t(at mari8uana increases li0e e)pectanc+
'ID* 3reatment 1e0$, 1o !ate iven 1onBprofit orani-ation for the free an! open eGchane of information in the fiht aain$t
'ID* >AMe!ical Mari6"ana% Unp"bli$he! 5e!eral *t"!y 5o"n! 3;2B3reate! =at$ Cive! Coner, ;a! Ce$$ 2ancer,& D
http%880004ai!$4or8atn8aB2H3B044htmlE +
83DS 'GB8',BK' KB;S has o$tained a 1+6A&age 9ra0t re&ort o0 a ma=or to%i,olog6 stu96 o0 !8CG the main
&s6,hoa,ti)e ingre9ient o0 mari=uana. 'he st"d( -as ,om&lete9 o)er t-o an9 a hal0 6ears agoG an9 &asse9 &eer re)ie- 0or
&u4li,ationG $"t has $een kept 9"iet "ntil this month, when someone leaked copies of the
draft report. 8s far as we know, the p"$lic has ne2er $een told a$o"t this research && for
example, the dr"g&reform mo2ement seems not to ha2e known a$o"t its existence. 'his
work ma( ha2e $een h"shed $eca"se its 0ndings are not what the dr"g&war ind"str( wo"ld
want. !he stu96 ga)e huge 9oses o0 !8C to rats an9 mi,e 46 stoma,h tu4eG and looked for cancers and other
e2idence of toxicit(. First there were small toxicit( st"dies, which "sed eno"gh '4 to kill
some of the animals; later, two&(ear st"dies were r"n in $oth rats and mice, "sing doses
which were still m"ch higher than those of mariF"ana smokers. 'he two&(ear st"dies tested
'4 in se2eral h"ndred rats and se2eral h"ndred mice. In ratsG those gi)en !8C ha9 a ,lear sur)i)al
a9)antage o)er the untreate9 ,ontrolsI this e00e,t -as statisti,all6 signi0i,ant in all 9ose grou&s, and in $oth males and
females. 3n mice =which were gi2en m"ch larger doses than the rats relati2e to $od(
weightC there was no s"r2i2al diDerence among the gro"ps && except that those gi2en the
highest dose =which was close to the lethal dose for miceC had worse s"r2i2al. 3n $oth mice
and rats, in $oth males and females, 1the incidence of $enign and malignant neoplasms ...
were decreased in a dose&dependent manner1 && meaning that the more !8C the animals -ere gi)enG
the 0e-er tumors the6 9e)elo&e9. 'he treated animals weighed less than the controls =e2en tho"gh
$oth ate a$o"t the same amo"nt of foodC; the researchers spec"lated that the lower $od(
weight ma( ha2e partl( acco"nted for the increased s"r2i2al and red"ced t"mors in the
'4&treated animals. 'he doses were large eno"gh to ca"se sei#"res and con2"lsions in
man( of the animals, especiall( when the( were dosed or handled. 'hese did not start
immediatel(, $"t after man( weeks, depending on the dose. 'he researchers looked for
$rain lesions in animals which had sei#"res, $"t fo"nd none. Ko e2idence of carcinogenic
acti2it( in the rats, $"t there was 1e9"i2ocal e2idence1 of one kind of th(roid t"mor in the
mice && with no e2idence of a dose&dependent response. @ther t"mors were less common in
the treated animals than in the controls && except in one case, which the toxicologists
$elie2ed was d"e to the fact that the treated animals li2ed longer, and therefore had more
opport"nit( to de2elop t"mors. 'he report incl"des a professionall( o$Fecti2e re2iew of the
$iological eDects, possi$le toxicities, and possi$le medical "ses of '4 and mariF"ana. 'he
title of the report is 1K'7 'echnical Geport on the 'oxicolog( and arcinogenesis St"dies
of )&'rans&Delta=/C&'etrah(drocanna$inol =8S Ko. )/.*&-:&HC in FH++/K Gats and
%RHF=)C ,ice =Oa2age St"diesC.1 @2er HL researchers contri$"ted to this st"d(, and )*
others re2iewed their work; se2eral instit"tions, incl"ding the Kational 'oxicolog(
7rogram and SG3 3nternational, were in2ol2ed. 'he doc"ment we recei2ed is report K'7
'G ++R, K34 7"$lication Ko. /+&HHR*, of the U.S. Department of 4ealth and 4"man
Ser2ices. =1K'71 stands for Kational 'oxicolog( 7rogram, which is made "p of fo"r Federal
agencies within 4ealth and 4"man Ser2ices.C Bach page of the draft is stamped 1not for
distri$"tion or attri$"tion.1 3n addition to the )*R&page doc"ment we ha2e re2iewed here,
there are )) appendices, which we ha2e not seen. 8ccording to the draft, the report will $e
a2aila$le from K'7 entral Data ,anagement, /)//L+)&)H.). 83DS 'GB8',BK' KB;S
re9"ested a cop( of the 0nal report when it is read(, and also re9"ested a cop( of the
draft. Kow that the existence of the report has $ecome p"$licl( known, we ha2e heard that
draft copies are $eing sent if re9"ested && despite the notice on each page not to distri$"te
them.
Links: Prisons
Impro,ing medical care and conditions in prisons would (a,e a positi,e eBect on
li0e e)pectanc+
D"bro, 2009Sol"mnist for 'he 7rogressi2e ,aga#ine =8lex, ?Deepl( 3mperfect 8$"se,A
,arch :, *--., a
http://www.tompaine.com/articles/*--./-H/-:/deepl(PimperfectPa$"se.phpb C
!he sheer s,ale o0 our in,ar,eration s6stem remains astoun9ingSif (o" can get (o"rself to foc"s on it.
8ccording to the *--L ommission on Safet( and 8$"se in 8mericaIs 7risons , ?'he dail(
co"nt of prisoners in the United States has s"rpassed *.* million. @2er the co"rse of a
(ear, )H.L million people spend time in Fail or prisondA 'r"e, a lot of people are F"st
passing thro"gh, spending a few da(s "ntil the(Ire $ailed o"t or dismissed. %"t there are
millions who essentiall( li2e inside one of the co"ntr(Is nearl( L,--- ad"lt prisons and
Fails. 8nd -hat goes on in thereU 'he commissioners iss"ed a _ X 8 to go with their 0nal report.
@ne 9"estion read: 18re the pro$lems descri$ed in the reportS2iolence, me9i,al negle,t,
inappropriate "ses of segregation and othersSpro$lems e2er(whereQ1 8nd the
commissioners answered it: 'hese are the most detrimental conditions of con0nement.
'hat doesnIt mean, howe2er, that the pro$lems are e9"all( se2ere e2er(where or that
some correctional facilities are not safe and health(. So there (o" ha2e it. Some o0 our nation;s
&risons are safe and health(. %"t in the restG 6our li0e e%&e,tan,6 4egins to 9iminish the 9a6 6ou arri)e. !he
)iolen,e ,omes 0rom 4oth guar9s an9 other inmatesG an9 is a -a6 o0 li0e in man6 &risons. Me9i,al negle,t a00e,ts man6 o0 the
15*G*** 0ullAtime &risoners -ith serious mental a00li,tionsG 4ut also those -ith ,ommuni,a4le 9iseases -hi,h the6 then 4ring
4a,2 into the -orl9. 8nd ?inappropriate segregationA means that more and more prisoners are
p"t into isolation, which is, in itself, a form of tort"re.
Links: Immigration
T(e plan causes more immigration
%or8as :: 'ro0essor o0 "conomics and Social 'olic+ Genned+ Sc(ool o0
Go,ernment Har,ard 2ni,ersit+* Eesearc( Associate at t(e National %ureau o0
"conomic Eesearc(
[Oeorge >., ?3mmigration and ;elfare ,agnetsA >o"rnal of 5a$or Bconomics Jol. ). Ko. +
7art ) @cto$er )/// >S'@G http://www.Fstor.org/sta$le/*RR-R:*] >4
'he de$ate o2er the link $etween immigration and welfare foc"ses on two related iss"es. 'he 0rst is
the perception that there has $een a rapid rise in the n"m$er of immigrants who recei2e p"$lic
assistance. 8ltho"gh earl( st"dies of immigrant participation in welfare programs concl"ded that immigrant ho"seholds had a lower
pro$a$ilit( of recei2ing p"$lic assistance than U.S.&$orn ho"seholds, more recent st"dies ha2e shown that this concl"sion no
longer holds&immigrant ho"seholds are now more likel( to recei2e welfare than nati2e ho"seholds.)
%orFas and 4ilton =)//RC report that when one incl"des $oth cash and noncash $ene0ts =s"ch as
,edicaid and Food StampsC in the de0nition of welfare, nearl( *)N of immigrant ho"seholds
recei2ed some t(pe of assistance in the earl( )//-s, as compared to onl( )+N of nati2e ho"seholds.
'he increasing participation of immigrants in welfare programs has spawned a rapidl( growing literat"re that attempts to determine if
immigrants 1pa( their wa(1 in the welfare state. 'here is also some concern o2er the possi$ilit( that the genero"s welfare
programs oDered $( man( U.S. states ha2e $ecome a 1magnet1 for immigrants. 'he magnet h(pothesis has
se2eral facets. 3t is possi$le, for example, that wel0are programs attract immigrants w(o ot(erwise would
not (a,e migrated to t(e 2nited States ; or that the safet( net disco"rages immigrants who 1fail1
in the United States from ret"rning to their so"rce co"ntries; or that the h"ge interstate dispersion
in welfare $ene0ts aDects the residential location choices of immigrants in the United States and
places a hea2( 0scal $"rden on relati2el( genero"s states. Despite their potential importance, there has $een little s(stematic st"d( of these
magnetic eDects, and there is little empirical e2idence that either s"pports or ref"tes the conFect"re that welfare programs ha2e aDected the
si#e, composition, or geographic location of the immigrant Eow.H 'his article $egins to doc"ment the link $etween
immigrant welfare "se and some of the potential magnetic eDects of welfare $ene0ts. 3n partic"lar, 3
in2estigate whether the residential choices made $( immigrants in the United States are inE"enced $( the interstate dispersion in $ene0ts. 3t
t"rns o"t that these magnetic eDects can lead to striking and easil( o$ser2a$le o"tcomes as long as
immigration is moti2ated $( income maximi#ing $eha2ior. 3n partic"lar, foreign&$orn welfare
recipients, "n& like nati2e welfare recipients, sho"ld $e cl"stered in the state that oDers the highest
$ene0ts. 8s a res"lt of this geographic cl"stering, the sensiti2it( of welfare participation rates to diDerences in
state $ene0t le2els sho"ld $e greater in the immigrant pop"lation than in the nati2e pop"lation. 'he
empirical anal(sis presented in this article "ses the )/:- and )//- 7"$lic Use ,icrodata Samples =7U,SC of the
decennial cens"s to test the theoretical implications. 'he data re2eal a great deal of dispersion in the welfare
participation rate of immigrants across states and indicate that less&skilled immigrants &and, more
speci0call(, immigrant wel0are recipients3 are muc( more (ea,il+ clustered in (ig(31eneft
states than immigrants who do not recei2e welfare, or than nati2es. 'he e2idence, therefore, is
consistent with the h(pothesis that the genero"s welfare $ene0ts oDered $( some states ha2e
magnetic eDects and alter the geographic sorting of immigrants in the United States.
Links: Immigration
Immigrants cause o,erpopulation and are disease ,ectors
(hrlich ) (hrlich 04 =7a"l G., %ing 7rofessor of %iological Science at Stanford and 8nne 4.,
associate director and polic( coordinator of the enter for onser2ation %iolog( at
Stanford Uni2ersit(, ?@ne with Kine2ehA p. ++C
!he sour,e o0 most o0 the ur4an gro-th in de2eloping co"ntries is &oor migrants 0rom rural areasG -ho settle in
s9"attersI slums in the outs2irts an9 )a,ant s&a,es o0 large ,ities. 'he United Kations has estimated that
$etween :HL million and + 4illion &eo&le are li)ing in these slums, which commonl( la,2 e)en 4asi, ser)i,es
s"ch as clean water, p"$lic transportation, electricit(, sanitation, and waste disposal.
%eca"se the s9"attersI occ"pation of the land is illegal, "r$an a"thorities ha2e "s"all(
ignored the needs of tho"sands of sl"m dwellers, who often settle in marginal locations
=remem$er 4"rricane ,itchC, 2"lnera$le to crime and disease. 3nfant mortalit( rates in
sl"m settlements ma( r"n as m"ch as three times the national a2erage =which itself ma(
$e man( times higher than those in rich nationsC.
Immigration causes 0urt(er o,erpopulation and o,erconsumption
"(rlic( > "(rlic( #. =7a"l G., %ing 7rofessor of %iological Science at Stanford and 8nne
4., associate director and polic( coordinator of the enter for onser2ation %iolog( at
Stanford Uni2ersit(, ?@ne with Kine2ehA p. .LC
Ce- &o&ulationArelate9 issues arouse more ire an9 ,reate 9ee&er ethi,al &ro4lems than international migration. In the Unite9
States, where immigration ma2es su,h a huge ,ontri4ution to &o&ulation gro-th, diDerent interest gro"ps ha2e
diDerent 2iews of immigration < legal and illegal. Oenerall(, ?open $ordersA are fa2ored $(
li$erals, and tight controls on immigration are preferred $( conser2ati2es. %"t some
traditionall( conser2ati2e gro"ps s"ch as ind"str( and $ig agric"lt"re fa2or immigration
$eca"se it s"pplies cheap la$or. 3n contrast, the traditionall( li$eral gro"ps s"ch as la$or
"nions are restrictionist $eca"se of the threat of competition. So are some en)ironmental grou&sG
,on,erne9 a4out the &ressure that in,reasing num4ers o0 Ameri,ans &la,e on e,os6stem ser)i,es, not F"st in the
United States $"t glo$all(. @ther en2ironmental KO@s are ,on,erne9 a4out en)ironmental =usti,e issues
and remain ne"tral on the 9"estion of immigration. 'he atholic h"rch in the United
States fa2ors immigration from ,exico and entral 8merica $eca"se a large portion of the
immigrants swell its ranks and add to its political power. Gacists oppose 5atin 8merican
immigration $eca"se the a2erage skin color of the immigrants is darker than that of the
a2erage 6" 6l"x 6lan mem$er =or, at least, darker than his sheetC. Similar e,onomi,G ,lassG an9
ra,ial &re=u9i,es &ollute immigration 9e4ates in most ,ountries 5 nearl6 all o0 -hi,h =incl"ding ,exico) attem&t to
regulate immigration to the ,ountries 0ar more stringentl6 than 9oes the Unite9 States.
Immigrants will e)acer1ate t(e impacts o0 o,erpopulation
"(rlic( > "(rlic( #. =7a"l G., %ing 7rofessor of 7op"lation St"dies and 7rofessor of
%iological Sciences at Stanford Uni2ersit(, 8nne 4. Bhrlich, Senior Gesearch 8ssociate in
the Department of %iological Sciences of Stanford Uni2ersit(, ?@ne with Kine2ehA p. :HC
MigrationG whether internal or international, does not, of co"rse, change the total n"m$er of
people on the planet. %"t it does ha)e man6 en)ironmental ,onsequen,es. Migrants un9erstan9a4l6 mo)e to-ar9
=o4s an9 0inan,ial re-ar9sG an9 o)erall the6 a&&ear to 0in9 them. 'hat means that, on a2erage, the6 $etter
their condition, $ecome more ae"ent, cons"me more, and th"s a99 more to the o)erall
en)ironmental im&a,t o0 human 4eings than i0 the6 ha9 sta6e9 at home. International migrants ma6 also im&ort highA0ertilit6
ha4its 0rom &oor nations into ri,h nationsG raising 4irthrates among the more a00luent < and en2ironmentall( more
destr"cti2e < &eo&le o0 the -orl9. 8nd the6 o0ten 4ring great e,onomi, 4ene0its to ri,h e,onomiesG ,ontri4uting to the
a4ilit6 o0 a00luent lo,al &eo&le to ,onsume more.
Links: Immigration
Immigrants lead to o,erpopulation
"(rlic( et al :4 =7a"l G., %ing 7rofessor of 7op"lation St"dies and 7rofessor of %iological
Sciences at Stanford Uni2ersit(, 8nne 4. Bhrlich, Senior Gesearch 8ssociate in the
Department of %iological Sciences of Stanford Uni2ersit(, and Oretchen . Dail(, %ing
3nterdisciplinar( Gesearch Scientist at Stanford Uni2ersit(, ?'he Stork and 'he 7lowA
p.:.C
(n,e the Unite9 States ha9 a 9omesti, &o&ulation &oli,6G Ameri,ans ,oul9 then ha)e a reasona4le 9is,ussion o0 the ethi,all6
)e%e9 immigration question. !he star2 ,entral issue -oul9 4e the tra9eAo00 4et-een 4irths 0orgone an9 immigrants a9mitte9 .
For an(one who is familiar with the pop"lation proFections and "nderstands that the U.S.
,annot su&&ort an in0inite num4er o0 &eo&le =still less keep oDering them a good lifeC, that of co"rse is
alread( a central iss"e. 4ow to manage the path to long&term shrinkage nat"rall( will
diDer from one nation to another, $"t the $asic principles are the same. 7 o&ulation gro-th in ri,h
nationsG whether from nat"ral or net immigration, a99s 9is&ro&ortionatel6 to &ressure )ital e,os6stems an9
resour,es. :hile the6 struggle to re9u,e o)er,onsum&tionG the ri,h must also struggle to re9u,e their o-n num4ers.
New immigrants will (ear a1out and come 1ecause o0 new social 1enefts networ&s are
created among immigrants
%or8as :/ 'ro0essor o0 "conomics and Social 'olic+ Genned+ Sc(ool o0 Go,ernment
Har,ard 2ni,ersit+ [Oeorge >. and 5(nette 4ilton ?3mmigration and the ;elfare State: 3mmigrant
7articipation in ,eans&'ested Bntitlement 7rogramsA _"arterl( >o"rnal of Bconomics Jol. ))) Ko. *
pp. L.L&R-+ ,a( )//R >S'@G http://www.Fstor.org/sta$le/*/+RR::]>4
'he empirical e2idence pro2ides a n"m$er of potentiall( important 0ndings:
). 3mmigrant ho"seholds are m"ch more likel( to recei2e some t(pe of welfare $ene0t than nati2e
ho"seholds. 'he data indicate that *-.. percent of immigrant ho"seholds recei2ed either cash
$ene0ts, ,edicaid, 2o"chers, or ho"sing s"$sidies as compared with )+.) percent of nati2e
ho"seholds. 'his welfare gap $etween immigrants and nati2es is m"ch larger than the gap
s"ggested $( earlier st"dies =which foc"s on cash $ene0tsC. ,oreo2er, the welfare gap increased
rapidl( $etween the mid&)/:-s and the earl( )//-s. 8ltho"gh m"ch of the welfare gap can $e
acco"nted for $( diDerences in socioeconomic characteristics $etween the two pop"lations, these
2aria$les explain onl( a$o"t a third of the rapid growth o$ser2ed in the past decade. *. 3mmigrant
ho"seholds ha2e more spells of welfare, and these spells are longer. 8s a res"lt, the t(pical
immigrant ho"sehold has a m"ch higher propensit( of $eing 1permanentl(1 on welfare. 'he
pro$a$ilit( that an immigrant ho"sehold recei2es some t(pe of $ene0t for at least .L percent of the
sample period co2ered $( the S377 is )H.+ percent, as compared with /.) percent for nati2e
ho"seholds. H. 'here are si#a$le cohort eDects =with more recent cohorts $eing more likel( to
recei2e welfare $ene0tsC and assimilation eDects =with a partic"lar immigrant ho"sehold $eing
more likel( to recei2e $ene0ts the longer the ho"sehold has resided in the United StatesC. 'hese
eDects are strongest for participation in the ,edicaid program.
+. 'he t(pes of welfare $ene0ts recei2ed $( earlier immigrant wa2es inE"ence the t(pes of welfare
$ene0ts recei2ed $( newl( arri2ed immigrants. 'his correlation s"ggests that there might 1e
in0ormation networ&s operating wit(in et(nic communities w(ic( transmit in0ormation
a1out t(e a,aila1ilit+ o0 particular t+pes o0 1enefts to newl( arri2ed immigrants. %eca"se of
the potential implications of o"r res"lts, it is important to stress the man( limitations of the st"d(.
For example, the short sample period in the S377 panels =each ho"sehold is followed for onl( H*
monthsC precl"des a f"ll anal(sis of the d(namics of welfare dependenc( in immigrant and nati2e
ho"seholds. Similarl(, little is known a$o"t the long&r"n impact of welfare dependenc( in the
immigrant generation in terms of the economic and social o"tcomes of second&generation
8mericans.
Links: Elderly
Healt( care and programs to reduce po,ert+ in t(e elderl+ greatl+ impact sur,i,al
B"tler, :3 .hD, erontoloi$t, p$ychiatri$t, an! ."lit-er .ri-e 0innin a"thor, i$ the International Conevity 2enterI$ .re$i!ent an! 2(J4
=Go$ert K., S"mmer )/:H ?'he Gelation of Bxtended 5ife to Bxtended Bmplo(ment since
the 7assage of Social Sec"rit( in )/HL,A 'he ,il$ank ,emorial F"nd _"arterl(, 4ealth and
Societ(, Jol. R), Ko. H, p +*), >S'@GC
;e can ass"me that re9u,tion in ol9Aage &o)ert6 has ha9 &ositi)e im&li,ations 0or the sur)i)al an9 health o0 the
el9erl6. 3f this is so, we m"st also ass"me that an( increase in po2ert( stemming from
changes in program and social conditions will ha2e a negati2e impact on the health of the
elderl( pop"lation. 3 s"spect that recent "pt"rns in the old&age po2ert( rate e2ent"all( will
show s"ch an eDect. Similarl(, im&ro)e9 a,,ess to health ,are ser)i,es ma9e &ossi4le 46 Me9i,are an9 Me9i,ai9
is ,re9ite9 -ith hel&ing to im&ro)e the sur)i)al an9 health o0 the el9erl6 &o&ulation. 8gain, we ma( expect that
c"rtailments wo"ld $e likel( to re2erse this progress.
Links: Natives
Nati,e American and A0rican American men (a,e an a1normall+ low li0e
e)pectanc+ 1ecause o0 a lac& o0 suBicient (ealt( carePe)panding co,erage will
re,erse t(e trend and increase population
Wa$hinton Dateline, 2002 >@"ne /3, 2002, AMinority Men lacK acce$$ to health care, report fin!$,& .= 1e0$0ire, CeGi$1eGi$ 'ca!emic
Univer$e+
Men o0 ,olor are 9oome9 to a signi0i,antl6 less health6 li0e than their -hite ,ounter&arts stemming 0rom 0a,tors in,lu9ing
racism and &o)ert6, sa(s a new report released toda( $( omm"nit( Joices: 4ealthare for
the Underser2ed. 'he gro"p was Foined $( the Kational Ur$an 5eag"e in this Father!s Da(
call for action. ;hile the di2ersit( of o"r nation contin"es to expand, rates of illness and
death are signi0cantl( higher for men of color. Com&are9 to -hite menG the li0e e%&e,tan,6 0or 4la,2 men is
se)en 6ears lo-er an9 almost eight 6ears lo-er 0or Nati)e Ameri,an men. 1Kothing in the $iological make"p of
men of color explains the remarka$le gap $etween their health and white men!s,1 sa(s
;hat 8$o"t ,enQ Bxploring the 3ne9"ities in ,inorit( ,en!s 4ealth. 13nstead, insidio"s
social factors& foremost racism&primaril( are $ehind it.1 Im&ro&er a,,ess to health ,are, poor
ed"cation, and few Fo$s pro2iding ins"rance are among the 0a,tors. 1,en of color are facing
illness and d(ing at an alarmingl( high rate,1 sa(s Dr. 4enrie 'readwell, 7roFect Director,
;.6. 6ellogg Fo"ndation. 1;e m"st re2erse the trend that keeps men of color from seeking
and recei2ing m"ch&needed health ser2ices.1 ;hat 8$o"t ,enQ o"tlines )* &oli,6 strategies to
o)er,ome o4sta,les 0a,ing men o0 ,olor in a,,essing a&&ro&riate health ,are. 'hese recommendations in,lu9e"
Y $%&an9ing &ri)ate an9 &u4li, health insuran,e ,o)erage 0or more men o0
,olorI
^ 3ncreasing comm"nit(&$ased screening ser2ices, o"treach programs, and
health care case management;
^ Strengthening the tie $etween pediatric, adolescent, and ad"lt care for
men of color;
^ %"ilding a c"lt"rall( competent workforce and expanding research and
data collection on men of color;
^ De2eloping comm"nit( coalitions of pri2ate and p"$lic health agencies
and social ser2ice organi#ations to ser2e men of color; and
^ De2eloping national, state, and local polic( agendas for the health of
men of color. 18s Father!s Da( approaches, we are reminded of the importance of men in
o"r societ(,1 sa(s 4"gh 7rice, 7resident of the Kational Ur$an 5eag"e. 1;e m"st remo2e
the horrendo"s $arriers to health care that threaten the li2es of o"r minorit( men.1
omm"nit( Joices has alread( $eg"n addressing some of these recommendations with the
de2elopment of the nation!s 0rst f"ll&ser2ice ,en!s 4ealth enter. 'he primar( care
facilit(, located in %altimore!s Sandtown& ;inchester comm"nit( pro2ides health care at no
charge to "nins"red males, ages )/ to R+. 'he center was esta$lished in 8pril *--- in
colla$oration with the %altimore it( 4ealth Department. 'he report also s"ggests
concerned famil( mem$ers sho"ld enco"rage their fathers, sons, $rothers, and h"s$ands
to seek care and help facilitate their entr( into the health s(stem. 'hirteen sites make "p
the m"lti&(ear omm"nit( Joices national initiati2e s"pported $( the ;.6. 6ellogg
Fo"ndation. 'he )H comm"nities are: 8lameda o"nt(/@akland, alifornia; 8l$"9"er9"e,
Kew ,exico; 3ngham o"nt(, ,ichigan; %altimore, ,ar(land; Sacramento, alifornia;
Den2er, olorado; Detroit, ,ichigan; Bl 7aso, 'exas; ,iami, Florida; Korth arolina;
Korthern ,anhattan, Kew Mork; ;ashington, D; and ;est Jirginia.
Links: Natives
Nati,e AmericansC disproportionate li0e e)pectanc+ to t(e national a,erage would
1e f)ed wit( access to social ser,ices
*tate$ 1e0$ *ervice, H8#.rovi!er of Wa$hinton 2overae from over :0 1ational 1e0$paper$ =>"ne L, *--/ ?5awmakers
3ntrod"ce %ipartisan 5egislation to 3mpro2e 8ccess to 4ealthcare for Kati2e 8merican
omm"nities,A States Kews Ser2ice, 5exis Kexis 8cademic Uni2erseC
'he following information was released $( the oDice of 8laska Gep. Don Mo"ng 3n an eDort
to impro2e access to 9"alit( medical care for nearl( two million 8merican 3ndians and
8laska Kati2es, U.S. Geps. Frank 7allone, >r. =D&K>C, Kick >. Gahall =D&,3C, Don Mo"ng =G&
86C and ,ar( %ono ,ack =G&8C toda( introd"ced long&o2erd"e legislation to rea"thori#e
the 3ndian 4ealth are 3mpro2ement 8ct =3438C & the cornerstone federal law that directs
the deli2er( of health ser2ices to these comm"nities. 1'he "nmet health needs of 8merican
3ndians and 8laskan Kati2es are alarmingl( se2ere and grow worse e2er(da( we fail to act
on this important iss"e,1 said 7allone, hairman of the 4o"se Bnerg( and ommerce
S"$committee on 4ealth. HNati)e Ameri,ans ha)e 9i00i,ult6 a,,essing the sim&lest o0 ser)i,esG su,h as &rimar6
me9i,al ,are and dental ser2ices, d"e to length( wait times, distant locations and transportation challenges. For far too long there has $een
a growing di2ide $etween the healthcare ser2ices aDorded Kati2e 8merican comm"nities. 'his legislation is long o2erd"e and is needed to
impro2e access to 9"alit( healthcare for 8merican 3ndians and correct the ine9"ities these comm"nities experience.1 13 ha2e p"shed for
rea"thori#ation of the 3ndian 4ealth are 3mpro2ement 8ct for the last 02e ongresses, and 3 will not stop that p"sh "ntil all of those li2ing in
3ndian o"ntr( ha2e access to 9"alit( and moderni#ed care,1 Gahall said. 18s hairman of the 4o"se ommittee on Kat"ral Geso"rces, 3 am
prepared to hold a hearing on this critical and needed legislation in the near&term, so that we ma( see thro"gh, once and for all, the
rea"thori#ation of the $asic health ser2ices pro2ided "nder the 8ct.1 1For far too long, access to health care for Kati2e 8mericans has $een
grossl( inade9"ate,1 6ildee said. 1'he disparit( $etween the health stat"s of Kati2e 8mericans and the rest of the 8merican pop"lation
contin"es to get worse o2er time, and the need for action co"ld not $e clearer. 'his critical legislation will make great strides to help end this
ine9"alit( and impro2e health care for o"r Kati2e 8merican pop"lation.1 1 3 am pleased once again to $e Foined in the $i&partisan eDorts of this
legislation,1 Mo"ng said. H Ameri,an In9ians an9 Alas2a Nati)es ha)e a li0e e%&e,tan,6 that is si% 6ears less than the national
a)erage an9 a rate o0 9ia4etes that is 9is&ro&ortionatel6 higher than the national a)erage. !he &riorit6 o0 this 4ill is to ensure 46
+*1*G that the health status o0 Ameri,an In9ians an9 Alas2a Nati)es is raise9 to the same le)el that is set 0or other Ameri,ans.
8dditionall(, 8laska is experiencing a tr"e dental crisis. ,ore than one&third of 8laska Kati2e school children ha2e missed school d"e to dental
pain, and this is "naccepta$le. 'his $ill will work to tr( to resol2e some of their dental iss"es. 'his is a 2er( important piece of legislation, and
3 look forward to working with m( colleag"es as we mo2e it forward for the good of 8merican 3ndians and 8laska Kati2es.1 13!m pleased to
s"pport the reintrod"ction of the 3ndian 4ealth are 3mpro2ement 8ct, a colla$orati2e eDort of 8merican 3ndians and 8laska Kati2es across
the co"ntr(,1 said %ono ,ack. 18ction is o2erd"e on this meas"re and an( health care reform eDorts in ;ashington re9"ire that o"r Kati2e
comm"nities are also part of the process. 3 will contin"e to work with m( colleag"es to moderni#e and impro2e this health care deli2er( model
for f"t"re generations.1 First enacted in )/.R, 3438 is the primar( so"rce of medical care for )./ million 8merican 3ndians and 8laska
Kati2es, man( of whom li2e in isolated, sparsel(&pop"lated and "nderser2ed areas of the co"ntr(. 3t was originall( enacted $ased "pon 0ndings
that the health stat"s of 3ndian people ranked far $elow that of the general pop"lation. S"$se9"ent rea"thori#ations amended the 3438 to
reEect ad2ancements in healthcare deli2er(, to respond to the desire of tri$es for greater program responsi$ilit(, and to target the high
incidence of certain diseases that ha2e plag"ed this segment of the 8merican pop"lation. Met, this integral initiati2e has not $een rea"thori#ed
in ). (ears, despite solid $ipartisan congressional s"pport & and was allowed to expire in *--). 4.G. *.-: will impro2e the $asic framework of
the law, thro"gh re2isions in the following areas: 7ro2isions designed to aid in recr"itment and retention of medical professionals for 3ndian
health programs; 8"thori#ation for more eDicient and cost&eDecti2e methods of health care deli2er(; Oreater roles for tri$es in health care
deli2er(, incl"ding local&priorit( setting; 8"thori#ation for a nationall( certi0ed omm"nit( 4ealth 8ide 7rogram to s"ppl( medical care in
"nderser2ed, remote areas; 3nno2ati2e options for f"nding of the 3ndian 4ealth Ser2ice; onsolidation of s"$stance a$"se, mental health, and
social ser2ices programs into a holistic s(stem for $eha2ioral health ser2ices; and @rgani#ational impro2ements for the 3ndian 4ealth Ser2ice.
'he 3ndian healthcare network is comprised of reser2ation and traditional homeland&$ased hospitals, clinics, school health centers and health
stations in 2er( remote areas, and "r$an 3ndian health programs in maFor
cities.
Internal Links
@ood is limited and population e)pansion is approac(ing t(e 1rea&ing point
(hrlich et al ,3 =7a"l G. Bhrlich, %ing 7rofessor of 7op"lation St"dies and 7rofessor of %iological
Sciences at Stanford Uni2ersit(, 8nne 4. Bhrlich, Senior Gesearch 8ssociate in the
Department of %iological Sciences of Stanford Uni2ersit(, Oretchen . Dail(, 7rofessor in
the Department of %iological Sciences; Senior Fellow in the ;oods 3nstit"te for the
Bn2ironment, 1Food Sec"rit(, 7op"lation and Bn2ironment1 7op"lation and De2elopment
Ge2iew, 2ol"me )/ iss"e ), p. )&H*, http://www.Fstor.org/sta$le/*/H:H:HC
Dou4ts a4out humanit6's a4ilit6 to ,ontinue an e%&onential e%&ansion o0 0oo9 &ro9u,tion in the near 0uture stem 0rom two
$asic o$ser2ations. 'he 0rst is that the extraordinar( e%&ansion o0 0oo9 &ro9u,tion since ,alth"s!s
time has 4een a,hie)e9 at a hea)6 ,ost & the depletion of a one&time inheritance of nat"ral capital
cr"cial to agric"lt"re. 'hat cost now amo"nts to an ann"al loss of ro"ghl( *+ $illion tons of
topsoil =%rown and ;olfe, )/:+C, trillions of gallons of gro"ndwater =e.g., Geisner, )/:RC,
and millions of pop"lations and species of other organisms =all in2ol2ed in s"ppl(ing
ecos(stem ser2ices cr"cial to food prod"ction & Bhrlich and Dail(, )//HC. !he loss is &ermanent on
an6 time s,ale o0 interest to humanit6. 'he second o$ser2ation is while agri,ultural out&ut gre- faster in the
last fo"r decades than e2en some optimists had predictedG &ast e%&e,tations that a &o&ulation o0 5
4illion ,oul9 easil6 4e 0e9 ha)e not 4een met, largel( $eca"se hungr6 &eo&le ha)e not ha9 the means to &ur,hase 0oo9.
3n fact, +** million or more &eo&le ha)e star)e9 to 9eath or 9ie9 o0 hungerArelate9 9isease in the &ast t-o 9e,a9es
=UK3BF, )//*C, and as man( as a $illion people are chronicall( "nderno"rished toda(,
a$o"t half of them serio"sl( so =UK 7op"lation F"nd, )//*C. 3n se2eral maFor de2eloping
regions, incl"ding 8frica and 5atin 8merica, the num4ers o0 hungr6 &eo&le ha)e ,ontinue9 to in,rease
=F8@, )//*$; Stone, )//*C, 9es&ite the im&ressi)e gains in 0oo9 &ro9u,tion.
At toda+Cs population growt( rate* we cannot a,oid surpassing 0oodCs carr+ing
capacit+
(hrlich et al ,3 =7a"l G. Bhrlich, %ing 7rofessor of 7op"lation St"dies and 7rofessor of %iological
Sciences at Stanford Uni2ersit(, 8nne 4. Bhrlich, Senior Gesearch 8ssociate in the
Department of %iological Sciences of Stanford Uni2ersit(, Oretchen . Dail(, 7rofessor in
the Department of %iological Sciences; Senior Fellow in the ;oods 3nstit"te for the
Bn2ironment, 1Food Sec"rit(, 7op"lation and Bn2ironment1 7op"lation and De2elopment
Ge2iew, 2ol"me )/ iss"e ), p. )&H*, http://www.Fstor.org/sta$le/*/H:H:HC
'hese n"m$ers are not exact, of co"rse, and the( are $ased on ass"mptions that ma(
somewhat o2erstate the amo"nt of posthar2est food wastage. !he6 nonetheless &ut in &ers&e,ti)e the
notion that hunger is H=ust a &ro4lem o0 9istri4ution.H $)en i0 it -ere &ossi4le to trans0orm most human 4eings into stri,t
)egetarians -illing to share equall6G the sheer siLe an9 gro-th rate o0 the &o&ulation -oul9 still 4e in,reasingl6 im&ortant
0a,tors in &ro)i9ing e)er6one -ith a minimal 9iet 4e,ause o0 gro-ing &o&ulationArelate9 stresses on the -orl9's 0inite 0oo9
&ro9u,tion s6stems. 'his is not to sa( that a smaller pop"lation toda( wo"ld necessaril( $e
$etter fed; e,onomi,G &oliti,alG an9 so,ial 0a,tors are not onl6 im&ortant 9eterminants o0 0oo9 &ro9u,tion an9 9istri4ution
&atternsG 4ut also ma6 inhi4it or stim"late c"lt"ral an9 te,hnologi,al inno)ations that im&ro)e &ro9u,tion ,a&a,ities.
%"t agronomicall( and ecologicall(, it ,ertainl6 -oul9 4e easier to 0ee9 all &eo&le -ell i0 there -ere 0e-er o0
them.
Internal Links
ur carr+ing capacit+ is on t(e 1rin&Pwit(out a decrease in population*
1iodi,ersit+ loss* pollution* de0orestation* and climate c(ange will ensue
Gees, Uni2ersit( of %ritish ol"m$ia, /R
=;illiam B, Population and Environment: A Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies
Volume 17, Number , January 1!!", #ttp:$$dieo%&or'$pa'e11(&#tm)
8 related rationale for re2isiting carr(ing capacit( Eows from consideration of the Second
5aw of 'hermod(namics. 3n partic"lar, modern form"lations of the second law s"ggest
that all highl(&ordered s(stems de2elop and grow =increase their internal orderC 1at
the expense of increasing disorder at higher le2els in the s(stems hierarch(1
=Schneider X 6a(, )//*C. 3n other words, complex d(namic s(stems remain in a
none9"ili$ri"m state thro"gh the contin"o"s dissipation of a2aila$le energ( and
material =esserg(C extracted from their host en2ironments. 'he( re9"ire a constant
inp"t of energ(/matter to maintain their internal order in the face of spontaneo"s
entropic deca(. S"ch self&organising none9"ili$ri"m s(stems are therefore called 1dissipati2e str"ct"res.1 'his extension of the
second law is critical to h"man carr(ing capacit(. onsider that: 'he h"man econom( is one s"ch highl(&ordered, d(namic, far&from
e9"ili$ri"m dissipati2e str"ct"re. 8t the same time . . . 'he econom( is an open, growing, s"$s(stem of a materiall( closed, nongrowing
ecosphere =Dal(, )//*C, and is therefore dependent on the formation of esserg( in the ecosphere for its growth and de2elopments. ['his inp"t
to the econom( from nat"re is the 1nat"ral income1 referred to in %ox )] 'his relationship implies that $e(ond a
certain point, the contin"o"s growth of the econom( can $e p"rchased onl( at the
expense of increasing disorder or entrop( in the ecosphere. 'his is the point at
which cons"mption $( the econom( exceeds nat"ral income and wo"ld $e
manifested thro"gh the contin"o"s depletion of nat"ral capital &&red"ced
$iodi2ersit(, air/water/land poll"tion, deforestation, atmospheric change, etc. 3n
other words, the empirical e2idence s"ggests that the aggregate h"man load
alread( exceeds, and is steadil( eroding, the 2er( carr(ing capacit( "pon which the
contin"ed h"mane existence depends. Ultimatel( this poses the threat of
"npredicta$le ecos(stems restr"ct"ring =e.g., erratic climate changeC leading to
reso"rce shortages, increased local strife, and the heightened threat of ecologicall(
ind"ced geopolitical insta$ilit(. 3n this light, the $eha2ior of complex s(stems and
the role of the econom( in the glo$al thermod(namic hierarch( sho"ld $e seen as
f"ndamental to s"staina$ilit(, (et $oth concepts are alien to the dominant de2elopment&
oriented instit"tions in the world toda(.
'opulation growt( ma&es carr+ing capacit+ decline
A1ernat(+* '(? Q Har,ard and 'ro0essor o0 Ant(ropolog+ Q Dander1ilt
!edical Sc(ool* :3
=Dr. Jirginia, 7op"lation 7olitics: the choices that shape o"r f"t"re, arr(ing apacit(
Ketwork, )//H, http://www.dieoD.org/pageL:.htmC
'he carr(ing capacit( is the n"m$er of indi2id"als that an area can s"pport witho"t s"staining damage. Carr6ing ,a&a,it6 is
e%,ee9e9 i0 so man6 in9i)i9uals use an area that their a,ti)ities ,ause 9eterioration in the )er6 s6stems that su&&ort them.
$%,ee9ing the ,arr6ing ,a&a,it6 sometimes harms an en)ironment so se)erel6 that the ne- num4er -ho ,an 4e su&&orte9 is
smaller than the original equili4rium &o&ulation. !he ,arr6ing ,a&a,it6 -oul9 then ha)e 9e,line9G &erha&s &ermanentl6. 8n(
n"m$er of elements or s(stems can $e h"rt $( o2er"se. 8 0eld can $e gra#ed down "ntil the root s(stems of grasses are
damaged; or so m"ch game can $e h"nted oD that food species are eDecti2el( extirpated. Kow, the foragers that ate the
grass or the predators that killed the game ha2e lost a food so"rce. 3n eDect, the carr(ing capacit( has $een
exceeded so that the pop"lation dependent on the area!s prod"cti2e s(stems is worse oD
than it was originall(. 8nimal pop"lations that destro( their niche come and go. 3f not too man( examples come to
mind, it is $eca"se the( rather 9"ickl( go. 'he miniat"re ponies on 8ssateag"e 3sland ill"strate a point on the contin""m.
'he( wo"ld o2ergra#e their island, serio"sl( depleting their f"t"re food s"ppl(, except for the fact that a portion of each
(ear!s colt crop is remo2ed. ;itho"t h"man inter2ention =there are no predators and apparentl( no reser2oir of infectio"s
diseaseC, the pon( pop"lation wo"ld explode. 7ro$a$l( it happened in the past. 'heir 2er( small si#e toda( is a 2estigial eDect
of star2ation, when onl( the tiniest, for whom the least $lades of grass were lifesa2ing, s"r2i2ed. 8 pop"lation cannot
$e sta$le if, $( its si#e or $eha2ior, it destro(s the 2er( life&s"pport s(stems on which it
depends. Sooner or later, degradation of the en2ironment is felt in inade9"acies of the food
or water s"ppl(, shelter, or ha2ens where indi2id"als can $e safe and the (o"ng can
de2elop. S"staina$ilit( re9"ires h"man or animal pop"lations to sta( at or $elow the
carr(ing capacit( of their ph(sical en2ironment.
Impacts Overpopulation Laundry List
'opulation growt( e)ploits natural resources* destro+s t(e en,ironment* increases
terrorism* and increase mass migration spurring c(aos worldwide
-assils Director of the pop"lation instit"te of anada < 2##. =>. 8nthon(,
?@2erpop"lation, S"staina$le De2elopment, and Sec"rit(: De2eloping an 3ntegrated
Strateg(,A 7op"lation and Bn2ironment, >an"ar(C
7op"lation growth contri$"tes to congestion, poll"tion, and the o2erexploitation of nat"ral
reso"rces, there$( red"cing the freedoms of indi2id"als in democratic co"ntries.
Bn2ironmental degradation adds to the sense of personal 2"lnera$ilit( with a growing
n"m$er of incidents, s"ch as respirator( and gastrointestinal diseases and ne"ral damage,
res"lting from air poll"tion and contamination of fresh water $( poll"tion and toxic waste.
onfronted with the growing threats posed $( o2erpop"lation and accelerating scarcit(, an
almost immediate response is to aDirm h"man rights. 4owe2er, this 2er( aDirmation Eies
in the face of realit( if it ignores the en2ironmental deterioration that makes it
increasingl( diDic"lt if not impossi$le to f"l0ll these rights.
'he proFected rapid growth of pop"lation, most of it in the poorest regions of the Barth,
will exacer$ate regional disparities, f"el resentment, and possi$l( gi2e rise to more
terrorism. ,an( of the poor will tr( to migrate to more prospero"s co"ntries which will
resist more acti2el( what might easil( $ecome an "ncontrolled in2asion. ,ass migration is
a phenomenon closel( associated with the h"man expansion o2er the past ten tho"sand
(ears. 3t is tied to the instinct of the h"nter&gatherer that if food $ecomes scarce in one
region, pop"lation migrates to a region of greater a$"ndance. 4owe2er, in an o2ercrowded
world this does not work. ,ass migration merel( spreads chaos and miser( thro"gho"t the
glo$e. 8 profo"nd change is needed. 'he era of mass migration is coming to an end. 3t is
impossi$le that e2en a signi0cant proportion of the c"rrent glo$al ann"al pop"lation
expansion of a$o"t se2ent(&nine million a (ear =7op"lation Geference %"rea", *--HC,
almost all of which is occ"rring in "nde2eloped nations, co"ld $e incorporated into
de2eloped nations. ,oreo2er, were this to $e attempted, it wo"ld o2erload the worldIs
car$on sinks e2en more disastro"sl( than is occ"rring at present. ,ost of the de2eloped
nations are alread( hea2il( pop"lated and m"ch of their prosperit( depends on a$"ndant
energ( which ma( $ecome m"ch more expensi2e sooner than most people expect.
ImpactsGeneric
'opulation growt( causes en,ironmental pro1lems* lac& o0 resources*
po,ert+* and no Oualit+ o0 li0e
A1ernat(+* '(? Q Har,ard and 'ro0essor o0 Ant(ropolog+ Q Dander1ilt
!edical Sc(ool* :3
=Dr. Jirginia, 7op"lation 7olitics: the choices that shape o"r f"t"re, arr(ing apacit(
Ketwork, )//H, http://www.dieoD.org/pageL:.htmC
@ne ma( discern o2erpop"lation 9"ite apart from large s(stems and speci0c reso"rces. @2erpop"lation shows "p in 9"alit(
of life and cost of li2ing. Gepeatedl( one sees least those who wish to, will see that more people mean more
pro$lems from poll"tion, crowding, and reso"rce scarcit( $eca"se e2en conser2ationists
poll"te and cons"me. 'he costs of adF"sting =i.e., decentl( accommodating more and more people in the
same amo"nt of space and with the same f"nd of nat"ral reso"rcesC are moneti#ed. Oar$age is the topic of
the ho"r. 3n F"st a few (ears, d"mping fees in U.S. cities ha2e sk(rocketed, from [L or [)-
a ton to an a2erage of o2er [)L-. %"rning 9"estions are whether to incinerate or not, how to rec(cle, and how to
make mone( from one!s ash heap. 'he rising cost of water in areas that are not nat"rall( arid makes the same point. B2en
if the 9"antit( of water is s"Dicient, p"rit( tends to s"Der when pop"lation densit( grows.
3t costs mone( to keep clean or clean "p. 8 )//* ;all Street >o"rnal acco"nt =7oor 7a(, )//*C states
that 1%oston water and sewer $ills ha2e risen H/N in the past two (ears as the costs of cleaning "p %oston
4ar$or ha2e $een phased into rates.1 3n )//), the a2erage ho"sehold paid [L-- a (ear in water and sewer
$ills, and 1water sh"toDs as a res"lt of nonpa(ment of water $illsdtripled.1 Demands on the p"$lic sector also
increase as pop"lation grows. 'axes in2aria$l( rise to meet the higher demand for ed"cation,
social ser2ices, health care, law enforcement, infrastr"ct"re s"ch as schools, hospitals,
prisons, s(stems for h"man transportation, and disposal of sewage and other wastes.
onc"rrentl(, s(stems are often left to deteriorate, an attracti2e option $eca"se taxpa(ers and "sers ma( not see meaningf"l
gains e2en with higher spending. 3nfrastr"ct"re is deca(ing nationwide, $"t goes "nnoticed "ntil a $ridge
collapses, sewers leak, or t"nnels ca2e in. 'he disappearance of nat"ral capital is e9"all( silent, $"t it is
contin"ing at a great rate and is compromising f"t"re prod"ction. 3owa has lost L- percent of its topsoil since the ad2ent of
farming in the nineteenth cent"r(. 'he drawdown of U.S. a9"ifers is also proceeding 9"ickl( and, so far, has led to
a$andonment of o2er H--,--- formerl( irrigated acres in 8ri#ona alone. Se2ent(&02e percent of irrigation is threatened in
Ke$raska. Oood air, land, water, and energ( are the n"ts and Folts of carr(ing capacit(. 3t is not tri2ial for the s"staina$ilit( of
o"r societ( that, as s"mmari#ed $( arr(ing apacit( Ketwork =)//)C, the United States is 1c"rrentl( losing topsoil ): times
faster than [it is $eing replaced; or that] gro"ndwater,dm"ch of which we stored d"ring the 3ce 8ge and is nonrenewa$le, is
c"rrentl( $eing p"mped o"t of the gro"nd *L percent faster than it is $eing replenished.1 S"$stit"tion for 2er(
$asic inp"ts s"ch as soil and fresh water will $e diDic"lt. ,oreo2er, there ma( $e an interacti2e eDect:
Up to now, irrigation and petrole"m&$ased fertili#ers ha2e compensated for deterioration in the innate prod"cti2it( of the
land. %"t e2en a temporar( rise in the price of petrole"m, if it led to c"t$acks on fertili#er
"se, co"ld "nmask the hidden cost of topsoil loss. ;hen farmers recogni#e that their long&term income
stream is Feopardi#ed $( present farming practices, the( are likel( to shift toward a more s"staina$le process. 4olding
farmers! capital their soil intact will ha2e the immediate res"lt of lowering prod"ction to $elow what can $e reali#ed $(
c"rrent, soil depleting agric"lt"ral methods. ,ost of the world!s L.L $illion people are $ecoming
poorer as the( compete against each other for Fo$s. ,ost lose p"rchasing power on a
(earl( $asis. 3ncreasing n"m$ers drop o"t of the cons"mer market altogether, exerting no
eDecti2e demand. 'h"s; it was a fact that Decem$er, )//-, oat and wheat prices sank to their lowest le2els since )/.*
while more people than $efore star2ed or li2ed on the edge of famine. 'he m"ltit"des do not $id "p prices. _"alit( of
life and en2ironmental health, not commodit( prices, are cl"es that the carr(ing capacit( is
$eing exceeded.
ImpactsGeneric
,erpopulation leads to en,ironmental degradation* rising demand o0 resources*
and lac& o0 drin&ing water
;inrich$on, *enior .roram Jfficer 0ith U1 pop"lation f"n!, ,4
=Don, 7"tting the $ite on h"man life: rapid h"man pop"lation growth is de2o"ring glo$al
nat"ral reso"rces, 3nternational ;ildlife ,aga#ine, Septem$er/@cto$er )//+,
http://www.dieoD.org/page)*-.htmC
Bach (ear, a$o"t /- million new people Foin the h"man race. 'his is ro"ghl( e9"i2alent to
adding three anadas or another ,exico to the world ann"all(, a rate of growth that will
swell h"man n"m$ers from toda(!s L.R $illion to a$o"t :.L $illion $( *-*L. 'hese 0g"res
represent the fastest growth in h"man n"m$ers e2er recorded and raise man( 2ital economic and en2ironmental 9"estions.
3s o"r species reprod"cing so 9"ickl( that we are o"tpacing the Barth!s a$ilit( to ho"se and
feed "sQ 3s o"r demand for nat"ral reso"rces destro(ing the ha$itats that gi2e "s lifeQ 3f +-
million acres of tropical forestSan area e9"i2alent to twice the si#e of 8"striaSare $eing
destro(ed or grossl( degraded e2er( (ear, as satellite maps show, how will that aDect "sQ 3f *.,---
species $ecome extinct (earl( $eca"se of h"man de2elopment, as some scientists $elie2e, what will
that mean for "sQ 3f nearl( * $illion people alread( lack ade9"ate drinking water, a n"m$er
likel( to increase to H.R $illion $( the (ear *---, how can all of "s hope to s"r2i2eQ
,erpopulation ris&s soil erosion* water scarcit+* national securit+* and t(e
e)(austion o0 oil reser,es in 2#3.# +ears
.imentel an! <iampietro, 2ornell U4 an! I$tit"to of 1a-ionale !ella 1"tri-ione, ,4
VDa)i9 an9 MarioG Coo9G /an9G >o&ulationG an9 the US e,onom6G No)em4er +1G
htt&"##---.9ieo00.org#&age4*.htmW
Drs. 7imentel and Oiampietro ha2e concl"ded that U.S. pop"lation growth is a primar( ca"se of these
harsh potential o"tcomes. 'he st"d( explains that the United States is the fastest&growing ind"striali#ed co"ntr( in
the world, now increasing $( approximatel( three million people per (ear. 'his pop"lation growth rata is e9"i2alent to
adding L:,--- people per week or a cit( the si#e of ;ashington, D.. to o"r co"ntr( e2er( (ear. 'he o2erall growth rate of
the U.S. pop"lation has escalated in large part $eca"se of the "nprecedented n"m$er of immigrants that ha2e $een allowed
to come into the United States and their disproportionatel( higher $irth rates compared to the nati2e&$orn. 8$o"t half of U.S.
pop"lation growth is c"rrentl( the res"lt of immigration. @n&going soil erosion and expanding
"r$ani#ation contri$"te to the contin"o"s loss of cropland in the U.S. 8nn"all(, more than
two million acres of prime cropland are lost to erosion, salini#ation, and waterlogging. 3n
addition, more than one million acres are remo2ed from c"lti2ation as 8merica!s limited ara$le land is @2erwhelmed $( the
demands of "r$ani#ation, transportation networks, and ind"str(. 8s a res"lt of ara$le land shortages, U.S. meat cons"mption
ma( $e red"ced. 'he gro"ndwater that pro2ides H)N of the water "sed in agric"lt"re is $eing
depleted "p to )R-N faster than its recharge rate. 'he 2ast U.S. @gallala a9"ifer ="nder Ke$raska,
@klahoma, and 'exasC will likel( $ecome non&prod"cti2e within the next +- (ears. B2en if water management is s"$stantiall(
impro2ed, the proFected L*- million 8mericans in *-L- wo"ld ha2e a$o"t .-- gallons/da(/capita, considered the minim"m
for all h"man needs, incl"ding agric"lt"re. 'he a2aila$ilit( of non&renewa$le fossil energ( explains in
part the historicall( high prod"cti2it( of U.S. agric"lt"re . "rrentl( the +-- gallons of oil e9"i2alents
expended to feed each 8merican amo"nt to a$o"t ).N of all energ( "sed in this co"ntr( each (ear. Met gi2en c"rrent
"se le2els, onl( )L to *- (ears of oil reso"rces remain in the U.S. 8ltho"gh imports now acco"nt for
L:N of oil "sed in the U.S., these international reser2es are expected to $e exha"sted within the
next H- to L- (ears. 7op"lation growth red"ces self&s"Dicienc( in food, a2aila$ilit( of 2ital
nat"ral reso"rces, standard of li2ing, and "ltimatel( U.S. national sec"rit(. 'he United States is
in a pri2ileged sit"ation compared to man( other nations in the world $eca"se its per capita endowment of nat"ral reso"rces
is relati2el( high $ased on its c"rrent pop"lation densit(. 4owe2er, the United States is at serio"s risk of
losing this pri2ilege if attention is not gi2en to the control of pop"lation growth =incl"ding
immigrationC, the s"staina$le management of nat"ral reso"rces, and the de2elopment of alternati2e energ( so"rces. Food
sec"rit( depends on ample fertile land, fresh water, energ(, and protecting $iodi2ersit( of
plant and animal species.
ImpactsGeneric/Laundry List
@verpopulation will lead to food shortages, poverty, o,one depletion, environmental degradation,
and e#tinction
2ampbell, *t4 @o$eph *collar! ;all, ,:
V3oelG !o& o0 the
th
G Ma6 +*G htt&"##9ieo00.org#&age14+.htmW
13f h"manit( fails to act, nat"re ma( end the pop"lation explosion for "s, in 2er(
"npleasant wa(s, well $efore )- $illion is reached1 =Bhrlich, /:C. 7op"lation in o"r world is
like a disease, its wide spread will onl( $ring de2astation to a people who will e2ent"all(
end "p $reeding themsel2es into extinction. 'he world as we know it cannot s"stain m"ch
more pop"lation growth witho"t increasing the instances of food shortages, lack of
reso"rces, po2ert(, o#one depletion, deforestation, and deserti0cation, to name a few.
[d]'his reiteration of the h"man instinct to $reed reinforces ,alth"sI grim predictions for the f"t"re, sho"ld pop"lation
contin"e to increase "nchecked. ,alth"s also clearl( stated that the demand for food $( an enormo"s
pop"lation can not $e met in the f"t"re $eca"se 17op"lation, when "nchecked, increases
in a geometrical ratio. S"$sistence increases onl( in an arithmetical ratio1 =,alth"s, )C. ;ith
food growing at s"ch a slow pace, we m"st attempt to 0nd sol"tions to slow the increasingl( fast geometrical growth of
pop"lation. 'his $rings "s $ack to the opening 9"otation in which Bhrlich o"tlined the possi$ilit( of the inter2ention of
nat"re into the increasingl( constricting pro$lem of social and $ioph(sical carr(ing capacit(.
Impacts Overpopulation Extinction
o,erpopulation is t(e root cause o0 e,er+ impact
-ote . =Go$in, 8"thor, 5ect"rer, and mem$er of non&pro0t 'he 5ife enter,
1@2erpop"lation B9"als Disaster,1 http://www.tr"th)-).org/2s&o2erpop"lation.html, 8OC
@2erpop"lation is one of the most pressing pro$lem facing h"manit( toda(. 3t!s also one of
the most completel( ignored pro$lems. 3t!s also one of the most completel( ignored
pro$lems. Species Bxtinction: 4"man o2erpop"lation is ca"sing the death and extinction
of "nco"nted tho"sands of "ni9"e, irreplacea$le life forms on BarthQ 7resent estimates are
that life forms on Barth are $ecoming extinct at the rate of one per ho"r & & that is *+
extinctions each and e2er( da(, )R: extinctions per week, .*- extinctions pre month, and
:,.R- extinctions per (ear. 'hatIs an extinction rate e9"aled onl( $( the demise of the
dinosa"rs. 8nd, as (o" well know, BU'3K'3@K 3S F@GBJBGV . f 8ggra2ating other
7ro$lems: 4"man o2erpop"lation which is the root ca"se of e2er( maFor pro$lem facing
h"manit( toda(Q & & pro$lems s"ch as po2ert(, star2ation, o2ercrowding, wars, crime, gang
2iolence, child a$"se, en2ironmental destr"ction, rainforest destr"ction, o#one depletion,
air poll"tion, water poll"tion, and species extinction. Bn2ironmental Disaster " 4"man
o2erpop"lation is ca"sing a glo$al en2ironmental disaster of proportions not seen since
the demise of the dinosa"rs. 3n the face of this alread(&in&process disaster, the anti&a$ortion promoters are den(ing its existence and proposing
the $irth of still more people. " ;e ha2e c"t a h"ge contig"o"s ecos(stem into little $locks with roads cities, farms, ranches and the like and think that we do no harm.
" ;e ha2e destro(ed o2er ninet(&se2en percent of o"r 2irgin forests and think there in no
price for that destr"ction. " ;e ha2e destro(ed 2ital top soil that is literall( irreplacea$le,
and think food will still $e a2aila$le for o"r children. " ;e ha2e poll"ted e2er( waterwa( on
the entire planet and ignore the massi2e deaths from the res"ltant diseases. " 8cid rain is killing o"r forests, $"t 9"arterl( corporate pro0ts take precedent of
stopping the d"mping of poisono"s merc"r( into o"r en2ironment. " ;e ha2e wantonl( m"rdered entire species of large predator(
animals and think s"ch destr"ction does not alter the en2ironment. " ;e ha2e o2er 0shed
the oceans to the point that ninet( percent of all large 0sh are simpl( gone. " 4"man
o2erpop"lation has alread( ca"sed the extinction of more species than at an( single time
period other that the demise of the dinosa"rs and few gi2e this carnage an( tho"ght. 'he
rate of extinction is still growing and there is no end in site to this trend. " ;e ha2e set
into motion en2ironmental changes the conse9"ences of which we are completel(
ignorant. ;e ha2e interfered with e2er( en2ironmental s(stem on the entire planet and think s"ch actions are witho"t cost or that someone else will pa( the
price. " @"r great grand children, if there are an(, are going to think of "s with anger and dis$elief and ask, were the( reall( that st"pidQ 'he 8nti&a$ortion ;ar %(
their s"pport of anti&choice laws, s"ch as restrictions on foreign aid, =http://www.pro&tr"th.net/H-&
references.html]gagC. and $( their opposition to certain practices, the anti&a$ortion
promoters den( sex ed"cation, $irth control, and a$ortion to millions in third&world
co"ntries while the impo2erished o2erpop"lation in these co"ntries is $"s( c"tting down
whatIs left of the rain forests to feed still more "nwanted children. 'he rain forests are not
onl( the homes for most life forms on this planet, these forests are also an essential
re9"irement for a sta$le glo$al en2ironment. 3n the de2eloped co"ntries, to accommodate
the increasing pop"lation, people are $"s( $"ilding still more factories and cars which
prod"ce e2en more poll"tion. 7oll"tion is destro(ing the o#one la(er at a phenomenal rate
and has alread( $eg"n to prod"ce an irre2ersi$le, en2ironmental disaster of as&(et
"nimagina$le proportions. utlawing a1ortion is li&e pla+ing a 2ariation of Eussian
roulette w(ere itRs +our turn until t(e gun goes oB.
Impacts Overpopulation Extinction
-urrent le,els o0 o,erpopulation will cause e)tinction unless adressed
Jones 3 & Di2ision of Barth and Bn2ironmental Sciences, 8"stralian ,"se"m =8.G., Ko2,
7op"lation goals and ecological strategies for spaceship earth, >o"rnal of 7op"lation
Gesearch, http://0ndarticles.com/p/articles/miPm-7O/isP*P*-/aiP)))-)+/:L/print, 8OC
'he last cent"r( has seen extraordinar( growth in h"man pop"lations and economies. 'his
growth has imposed h"ge and e2er&increasing press"res on Barth!s ecos(stems, prompting
fears concerning the integrit( of their life&s"pporting f"nctions and the high rate of
extinction of species. _"ite simpl(, ecological degradation threatens the interests and
possi$l( the s"r2i2al of f"t"re h"man pop"lations. %( the criterion of ecological
s"staina$ilit(, and gi2en o"r c"rrent cons"mption rates and technologies, Barth is now
o2erpop"lated. 3n s"ch times of great and threatening change it is important to reconsider
h"man goals and ena$ling strategies. 8 f"ndamental goal is the s"stained 9"alit( s"r2i2al
of h"man pop"lations. 8chie2ing this re9"ires new paradigms of "nderstanding and
management, especiall( the reali#ation that the h"man economic and social spheres are
dependent on health(, f"nctioning ecos(stems, and that most forms of growth are
"ns"staina$le. Socio&economic de2elopment m"st $ecome ecologicall( s"staina$le with
the maintenance of Barth!s life&s"pport s(stems ass"ming priorit(. De2eloping integrated
ecos(stem management, c"tting cons"mption, and negotiating optim"m pop"lation si#es
wo"ld $e "sef"l. 'his paper disc"sses these iss"es with emphasis on the 8"stralian
sit"ation.
'he most critical task facing h"manit( toda( is the creation of a shared 2ision of a
s"staina$le and desira$le societ(. =Go$ert ostan#a *---: )C
hange is now per2asi2e and rapid. 8ccording to the %ritish 7rime ,inister, !the rate of
economic, geopolitical, ind"strial and social change is 9"icker than at an( time in o"r
histor(! =%lair )//L: HC. 'he one form of change %lair did not mention&&ecological change&&
is also arg"a$l( the most important. @missions notwithstanding, all these changes ha2e
$een dri2en $( growth; for example, the glo$al pop"lation has m"ltiplied $( fo"r and
world economic prod"ction $( *- since )/-- =,eadows, ,eadows and Ganders )//*C.
'his growth has ca"sed h"ge degradation to Barth!s ecos(stems and $ro"ght fears that
their str"ct"res and life&s"pport f"nctions are $eing progressi2el( weakened =5"$chenko
et al. )//); Gisser, 5"$chenko and 5e2in )//); Jito"sek et al. )//.; ;orld Geso"rces
3nstit"te *---C. Despite attempts to pla( down the se2erit( of the sit"ation =e.g. 5om$org
*--lC, it seems certain that a contin"ation of these damaging forms of growth will f"rther
degrade nat"re and this will compromise the options and possi$l( e2en the s"r2i2al of
f"t"re generations =5a"rance *--)C.
'hese fears ha2e $een recogni#ed internationall( $( 6o0 8nnan, the Secretar( Oeneral of
the United Kations, who acknowledged the !perilo"s state of the Barth! and a principal
ca"se: !nothing co"ld $e more important than helping the world!s people control their
n"m$ers.! =UKB7 *--*: xi2C. Despite attempts $( some co"ntries to lessen growth, the
glo$al pop"lation is "nlikel( to sta$ili#e $elow a$o"t nine $illion, L- per cent greater than
now =UKF78 *--)C. 'his growth wo"ld greatl( increase demands on ecos(stems as wo"ld
the contin"ed economic growth that is "ni2ersall( desired.
,erpopulation ris&s e)tinction onl+ deat( c(ec&s pre,ent t(e cras(
%rown* #/ professor of ph(siolog( at ;est Jirginia Uni2ersit( =7a"l, Kotes from a D(ing
7lanet, p. x2iC
'his $ook is ine2ita$l( a$o"t s"staina$ilit(: "sing reso"rces onl( as fast as the( can $e
replenished. 'he concept is as simple as $alancing a check$ook. %( li2ing "ns"staina$l(,
o2er"sing o"r credit, weI2e ca"sed glo$al warming and ha$itat destr"ction for the li2ing
creat"res that pro2ide o"r life s"pport in the form of drinka$le water, edi$le food,
$reatha$le air, and e2en ha$ita$le land. @"r planet is going thro"gh the worst mass
extinction since the death of the dinosa"rs, possi$l( the worst in the planetIs histor(. 'o
make matters worse, weI2e crossed the threshold of a positi2e feed$ack loop in which
glo$al warming is accelerating. 3t ma( $e too late to pre2ent a r"nawa( process that onl(
micro$es will s"r2i2e.8 ke( component of o"r "ns"staina$le lifest(le is o2erpop"lation. 3f it
werenIt for wars, famine, dro"ght, and pestilence, we wo"ld ha2e "sed "p o"r planetIs
reso"rces long ago. 'here are now more than six $illion people on this planet. 3n the worst
case, that n"m$er co"ld increase to twel2e $illion $( the middle of this cent"r(. 3n some
"nderde2eloped areas of the world pop"lations are growing completel( o"t of control and,
as far as man( are concerned, the last da(s of h"manit( are "pon them right now. 'he( are
har$ingers of the de2eloped worldIs fate if we donIt do eno"gh, soon eno"gh.
Impacts Overpopulation Extinction
,erpopulation is 1rea&ing t(e "art(Cs carr+ing capacit+ and massi,e die oBs are
ine,ita1le neit(er tec(nolog+ nor economic growt( are suBicient to o,ercome
t(is
Jones 3 & Di2ision of Barth and Bn2ironmental Sciences, 8"stralian ,"se"m =8.G., Ko2,
7op"lation goals and ecological strategies for spaceship earth, >o"rnal of 7op"lation Gesearch,
http://0ndarticles.com/p/articles/miPm-7O/isP*P*-/aiP)))-)+/:L/print, 8OC
8chie2ing 9"alit( s"r2i2al on a s"stained $asis will re9"ire the integration of economic, social and ecological strategies consistent with BSD, $"t this is
threatened $( the prospect of large&scale anthropogenic ecological collapses characteri#ed
$( great changes in $oth ecological str"ct"re and f"nction that can $e $oth s"dden and
diDic"lt to re2erse =ScheDer et al. *--)C. S"ch collapses ha2e de2astated ci2ili#ations in the past
=Diamond )//+C and some are occ"rring toda(. Bxamples incl"de the de2astation of the 8ral Sea,
the fail"re of some 0sheries, mass $leaching of coral reefs, salini#ation and acidi0cation of
prod"cti2e lands, e"trophication of waterwa(s, and damaging irr"ptions of exotic species
=4"tchings *---; ,ack et al. *---; ScheDer et al. *--)C. 'hese disasters ha2e serio"s conse9"ences for h"mans as well as nat"ral comm"nities: the collapse of the
anadian cod 0sher( in the earl( )//-s from o2er0shing left H-,--- 0shermen "nemplo(ed, and decimated n"mero"s local economies =;orld Geso"rces 3nstit"te
*---C; moreo2er, this 0sher( is not reco2ering as rapidl( as commonl( expected =4"tchings *---C. B2en more alarming than these regional ecological collapses is the
threat of glo$al&le2el climate change, a process alread( ha2ing widespread ecological eDects =;alther et al. *--*C. 3f these ecological disasters
and threats are not eDecti2el( addressed, economic and social strategies will necessaril(
fail $eca"se h"man economies and societies are totall( dependent on ecos(stems. 8t $ase, all
animal life depends on plant photos(nthesis ; this fact has $een ignored $( pre2io"s and c"rrent socio&economic strategies that
place priorit( on growth rather than on s"staina$ilit(. 3nstead, the priorit( strateg( sho"ld $e to maintain ecos(stems in a s"Dicientl( health( state to pro2ide life&
s"pporting goods and ser2ices for all people. 3n essence, s"staina$ilit( re9"ires three conditions to $e met. First, renewa$le reso"rces s"ch as tim$er and 0sh m"st $e
"sed at rates not exceeding the rates of regeneration. Secondl(, non&renewa$le reso"rces =e.g. oil, metalsC m"st $e "sed at rates not exceeding the rate of 0nding
renewa$le s"$stit"tes; thirdl(, the disposal of wastes m"st not exceed the assimilati2e capacit( of the en2ironment. Fail"re to meet these conditions ca"ses the loss of
ecological capital and life&s"pport capacit(, this $eing the c"rrent and accelerating sit"ation. 'his "nsatisfactor( state ma( seem s"rprising $eca"se the re9"irement
for ecologicall( s"staina$le de2elopment has $een recogni#ed glo$all( =;orld ommission on Bn2ironment and De2elopment )/:.C and $( n"mero"s national
go2ernments. 8"stralia set the goal of !de2elopment that impro2es the total 9"alit( of life, $oth now and in the f"t"re, in a wa( that maintains the ecological processes
on which life depends! =o"ncil of 8"stralian Oo2ernments )//*: RC. 'his goal and its core o$Fecti2es espo"sing h"man well&$eing, e9"it( and the protection of
$iodi2ersit( are "n9"estioned; e2er(one appears to endorse them. %"t the existing strategies are failing to achie2e the stated goal, as is clearl( indicated $( increasing
en2ironmental degradation =SoB8 *--)C; and (et the pro&growth lo$$ies wo"ld increase the "nderl(ing press"res in the form of pop"lation growth and economic
growth. 'his sit"ation has arisen $eca"se the conEicts $etween BSD and growth ha2e largel( $een ignored, with the priorit( gi2en to growth. 3n partic"lar, economic
growth has $een, and remains, the 4ol( Orail; nat"re has $een treated as inexha"sti$le in that an( declining reso"rce can alwa(s $e replaced $( another so long as
demand exists =Gees )//-C. Despite logic to the contrar(, limits to material economic growth ha2e not $een percei2ed =Dal( )//)C. 7op"lation si#e is one of se2eral
"nderl(ing factors aDecting the en2ironment; others incl"de cons"mption, technolog( and social organi#ation =S3G@ )//+C. Despite contrar( opinion =e.g. %one
*---C, pop"lation si#e is important $eca"se it is a m"ltiplier: total impact e9"als per capita impact times the n"m$er of people. 7er capita impact is meas"red $( the
ecological !footprint!, this $eing the area needed to meet all needs =;ackernagel and Gees )//RC. 'he a2erage 8"stralian footprint is a$o"t eight hectares, which is
"ns"staina$l( large gi2en the c"rrent pop"lation si#e =a$o"t *- millionC and ecological decline. 'he threat that pop"lation growth poses to BSD in 8"stralia is
considered $( growth ad2ocates to $e a pro$lem for the planet rather than for 8"stralia. 8ltho"gh no targets for glo$al pop"lation si#e ha2e $een set, the United
Kations clearl( considers pop"lation growth to $e a priorit( pro$lem for $oth h"man societies and ecos(stems =UKF78 *--)C; the most pop"lo"s co"ntr(, hina, is
acti2el( tr(ing to sta$ili#e its n"m$ers. 3n contrast, 8"stralia has enco"raged growth thro"gh migration. 3ndeed, the migration intake has recentl( $een increased and
the pop"lation growth rate is ).H per cent =8%S *--HC, gi2ing a theoretical do"$ling time of L+ (ears; (et 8"stralia still has no oDicial pop"lation polic( despite the
recommendations of go2ernment in9"iries =ocks )//RC. 'his polic( 2ac""m has enco"raged 2ario"s lo$$(ists to espo"se pop"lation targets ranging from large
increases, generall( preferred $( $"siness interests, to rapid sta$ili#ation or e2en decreases, preferred $( $iological scientists and comm"nit( organi#ations =ocks
)//RC. Gecentl(, three pop"lation scenarios were e2al"ated $( the S3G@ in terms of the ph(sical transactions s"pporting the 8"stralian econom( =Foran and 7old(
*--*C. 3n this st"d(, all three scenarios =*-, *L and H* million $( *-L-C were considered to $e ph(sicall( feasi$le altho"gh their social, economic and ecological costs
and $ene0ts wo"ld 2ar(. For example, while OK7 wo"ld rise in the pop"lation&increase scenarios, these wo"ld also impose serio"s reso"rce, energ( and ecological
pro$lems, a more moderate lifest(le, and red"ced 9"alit( of life for "r$an dwellers. @nce again there is a polic( conEict $etween the econom( and the en2ironment
and, gi2en the recent increase in the 8"stralian o2erseas migration intake =8%S *--HC, it seems that once again the econom( r"les. Oi2en contin"ing ecological
decline and the political consens"s for s"staina$ilit( =o"ncil of 8"stralian Oo2ernments )//*C, the on"s is clearl( on the growth ad2ocates to arg"e their case. 3t
appears foll( to espo"se pop"lation growth for 8"stralia "nless there are signi0cant socio&economic reasons that compensate for ecological degradation. 'he reasons
gi2en incl"de enhanced economic well&$eing, national sec"rit( and international inE"ence. ;hile these arg"ments ma( once ha2e $een 2alid, the( were reFected $(
ocks =)//RC $eca"se the economic $ene0ts per capita are marginal at $est and none of the three defence ;hite 7apers since )/.R has recommended a larger
pop"lation as a $asis for increased sec"rit(. F"rther, ocks =)//R: H-/C concl"ded that !pop"lation growth is ha2ing and will contin"e to ha2e se2ere ad2erse
conse9"ences on the 9"alit( of life of most present and f"t"re 8"stralians!. Similarl(, Mencken and 7orter =*--)C fo"nd that man( 8"stralians are ad2ersel( aDected $(
the kinds of growth that fail to enhance emplo(ment, c"lt"re or democrac( $"t that $ene0t the rich and despoil the en2ironment. Orowth ad2ocates often claim that it
is not n"m$ers of people $"t what people do that is the pro$lem =e.g. %one *---C: if people red"ced their cons"mption and applied green technologies, s"staina$ilit(
might $e achie2ed, e2en with more people. Unfort"natel(, cons"mption is rising sharpl( rather than falling =SoB8 )//R, *--)C and green technolog(, while desira$le,
faces a h"ge challenge. 'rainer =)//:C estimated that a three per cent per (ear increase in glo$al economic o"tp"t wo"ld mean an eightfold increase $( *-.- and, if
all people attained ;estern standards of li2ing, glo$al o"tp"t wo"ld exceed )-- times toda(!s 0g"re. Oi2en that technolog( is failing the
c"rrent s"staina$ilit( challenge, it seems certain that e2en greatl(&impro2ed technologies,
widel( deplo(ed, will $e inade9"ate to sol2e the en2ironmental pro$lems ca"sed $( pop"lation
and economic growth. 3n the 8"stralian case, the claim $( the %"siness o"ncil of 8"stralia for accommodating a m"ch higher pop"lation "sing
technological and management sol"tions was serio"sl( Eawed =>ones *--lC. 'hese facts call for the growth ad2ocates to rationall( arg"e their case against consens"s
goals and s"staina$ilit( criteria. 3n doing so, the( sho"ld acknowledge that there are alread( h"ge en2ironmental remediation costs =@Dice of the hief Scientist )//L;
Fisher *---C, and that science does not ha2e all the answers =5"dwig, 4il$orn and ;aiters )//H; Do2ers and 4andmer )//LC. ,oreo2er, these facts dictate the need
to appl( preca"tionar( and on"s principles as management strategies that emphasi#e the pre2ention of degradation or o$lige de2elopers to show that proposals will
not ca"se "naccepta$le damage =Do2ers and 4andmer )//LC. 3f growth ad2ocates $elie2e that economic growth will pa( for en2ironmental 9"alit(, a fre9"ent claim,
the( sho"ld address the serio"s criticism $( the Ko$el&pri#e&winning economist 6enneth 8rrow that
while economic growth ma( $e associated with impro2ements in some en2ironmental indicators, the( impl( neither that economic growth is s"Dicient to ind"ce
en2ironmental impro2ement in general, nor that the en2ironmental eDects of growth ma( $e ignored, nor indeed that the Barth!s reso"rce $ase is capa$le of
s"pporting inde0nite economic growth =8rrow et al. )//L: L*-C.
3t th"s seems that the s"stained 9"alit( s"r2i2al of h"man pop"lations will not $e achie2ed $(
economic growth despite the man( $ene0ts and ad2ances of recent histor(; "nfort"natel(
these ad2ances ha2e $een accompanied $( the "ns"staina$le cons"mption of ecological
capital. ,"ch more eDecti2e wo"ld $e the de2elopment of pop"lation and other policies that
accord with the principles of ecological s"staina$ilit(. 3n partic"lar, it is cr"cial to a2oid
the catastrophic sit"ation where o2erpop"lation erodes Barth!s carr(ing capacit( leading
to a steep uncontrolled increase in t(e deat( rate =,eadows et al. )//*C. Unfort"natel(, s"ch erosion
ma( alread( $e in train. ertainl( the carr(ing capacit( of $oth Barth and 8"stralia is falling $eca"se
of land and water degradation and $iodi2ersit( loss. 8t iss"e is whether en2ironmental
press"res can $e red"ced s"ch that a stead(&state relationship $etween pop"lation and life
s"pport can $e reached.
Impacts Overpopulation Extinction
Acting now is &e+ to pre,enting Glo1al collapse and en,ironmental -atastrop(e
Hardin* 2##.& 7rofessor of 4"man Bcolog( at U Santa %ar$ara, fo"nder of h"man
ecolog( =Oarrett, @ne with Kine2eh, pHHHC
Unfort"natel( we!re long past the era when incremental changes can sa2e the da(; o"r
nat"ral and technological en2ironments are changing too rapidl( so. ;e face the addition
of at least * $illion more people to the planet in the next half&cent"r(, e2en "nder
optimistic ass"mptions, and we!re alread( o2er cons"ming nat"ral capital and disr"pting
planetar( s(stems at a rate Barth cannot long s"pport. 'he ancient ,esopotamians had
plent( of time to a2oid their fate, $"t the( co"ldn!t foresee the f"t"re. 'oda(!s societ( can
see what its fate will $e if $"siness as "s"al pre2ails. B2er( single state and empire of the
past sooner or later collapsed&as attested $( for instance, the desolate remains of Kine2eh
fo"nd $( 8"sten 4enr( 5a(ard, n"mero"s similar traces of other pre2io"sl( pro"d cities,
and the dissol"tion of the %ritish Bmpire and, more recentl(, the So2iet Union. 8nd, in
2irt"all( e2er( collapse, en2ironmental and reso"rce =cons"mptionC factors $roadl(
considered pla(ed some role&not F"st political or militar( factors. Kow we ha2e a glo$al
state&corporate empire centered on the United States.L! 'here is still a limited time to
circ"m2ent a long&term en2ironmental collapse that wo"ld destro( this new state&
corporate empire and $e the 0rst glo$al collapse. %"t the empire m"st change its wa(s.
Impacts: Agriculture
,erpopulation causes agriculture collapse
"(rlic( > "(rlic( #. =7a"l G., %ing 7rofessor of %iological Science at Stanford and 8nne
4., associate director and polic( coordinator of the enter for onser2ation %iolog( at
Stanford Uni2ersit(, ?@ne with Kine2ehA p. HRC
3t is no s"rprise, then, that the most salient element o0 humanit6;s rene-a4le natural ,a&ital 9estine9 to 4e in short
su&&l6 in the twent(&0rst cent"r( ma( well $e fresh water. As &o&ulations gro- an9 e,onomies
mo9erniLeG 9eman9 0or -ater in,reases su4stantiall6 an9 ,om&etition 0or s,ar,e su&&lies intensi0ies. 3n de2eloping
regions, more than + 4illion &eo&le are sur)i)ing -ith ina9equate su&&lies o0 -ater 0or househol9 use < lacking e2en
a minimal amo"nt for drinking, cooking, and washing. 3n some water&short cities s"ch as
8mman, >ordan, r"nning water is pro2ided to ho"seholds for onl( a few ho"rs a da(.
A9equate -ater su&&lies are essential not onl6 9ire,tl6 0or human -ellA4eing 4ut also 0or 0oo9 &ro9u,tion. @n a2erage, a4out
7* &er,ent o0 0resh-ater -ith9ra-als 0or human use are 0or agri,ulture. Some ): percent of the worldIs cropland is "nder
irrigation to pro2ide the a$"ndant water on which the high crop (ields of modern agric"lt"re depend, especiall( cereals,
a$o"t R- percent of which are prod"ced on irrigated land.
Collapse of the agricultural sector destroys innovation and high yield
technology
Forbes, 9/3/2008 01oshua 2umbrun, 34etting 5own $ith !he "arm67
'he high&deci$el message: 8gric"lt"re has arri2ed. It's an unprecedented time of power and
importance for the industry in the nation's capital. ll these companies and organizations are quic#
to point out that, while all part of the broad agriculture tapestry, they're not e%actly natural allies.
$hen fertilizer prices go up, the farmers ta#e a hit8 when commodity prices go up, the processors
ta#e a hit8 when fuel prices go up, everyone ta#es a hit 0e%cept, perhaps, ethanol7. 9ut underneath
the industry's dozens of competing interests is one overarching theme--trade--and a question: $hich
presidential candidate best helps their interests; <ong something of an afterthought, an over-
subsidized laggard during the infotech boom, agriculture is now a burgeoning bright spot in a largely
troubled economy. $hile government sponsored enterprises "annie =ae 0nyse: ">= - news - people 7
and "reddie =ac 0nyse: "?/ - news - people 7 are teetering on the edge of nationalization, the "arm
'redit -ystem, a forgotten government-sponsored enterprise, is buzzing along. 4one are the days
where debt from "annie and "reddie was second only to @.-. !reasuries. !oday, spreads are lower in
the farm credit system, a testament to the surging strength of agriculture, says g-tar "inancial
Aresident Aaul 5e9riyn and a member of the board of directors for "armer =ac. nd with long-
standing subsidies secured by passage of the ())B farm bill earlier this year, industry leaders in
=inneapolis were free to focus on open mar#ets for a new generation of products. !echnology is
rapidly changing the interests of the industry. 1ohn 1ohnson, the chief e%ecutive of 'C- 0nasdaq:
'C-'A - news - people 7, a maDor agriculture co-op, e%plains the industry's new fundamentals.
Improvements in seeds and farming practices allowed corn yields to double in E* years. s crops get
more bug-resistant and drought-resistant and can grow in more tightly planted rows, that number
could double again in the ne%t couple of decades. In the past, there's been little incentive to develop
this new lab-grown abundance. 5emand in the @.-. grows mostly in step with the population, which
hardly grows at all. !his led to the industry ta#ing a bad rap for overproduction--for stu+ng calories
into !win#ies or letting crops rot in silos. >ow, rising global demand, for food and fuels, changes the
equation. Increasing production is needed to feed the world's masses--and gas tan#s. !he producers
of genetically modifed seeds are going from 5r. "ran#en"oods to the potential saviors of the global
hungry.
Impacts: Agriculture
Only high yield research solves species loss
Avery, 200 05ennis !, director of the 'enter for 4lobal "ood Issues at the Cudson Institute, ,Cow
Cigh-Field "arming -aves >ature,, -ociety7
If the worldGs farmers today got the yields they achieved in EH*), the world would need nearly three
times as much cropland to produce todayGs food supply. !hat would be about E*IEJ million additional
square miles of cropsKall the global forest area available today. /very biologist who is worried about
species e%tinction is worried most about lost wildlife habitatKespecially forests and most of all the
tropical forests.
!u"an e#tinction $gender "odi%ed&
'iner, (99) 0=aDor 5avid, 14 'orps, @nited -tates rmy, =ilitary <aw ?eview, ELM =il. <. ?ev. EJE,
p. E.)-E.M7
>o species has ever dominated its fellow species as man has. In most cases, people have assumed
the 4od-li#e power of life and death -- e%tinction or survival -- over the plants and animals of the
world. "or most of history, man#ind pursued this domination with a singleminded determination to
master the world, tame the wilderness, and e%ploit nature for the ma%imum beneft of the human
race. nJ. Inpast mass e%tinction episodes, as many as ninety percent of the e%isting species
perished, and yet theworld moved forward,and new species replaced the old. -o why should the
world be concerned now;!he prime reason is the world's survival. <i#e all animal life, humans live o&
of other species. t some point, the number of species could decline to the point at which the
ecosystem fails, and then humans also would become e%tinct. >o one #nows how many NOE.EP
species the world needs to support human life, and to fnd out -- by allowing certain species to
become e%tinct -- would not be sound policy. In addition to food, species o&er many direct and
indirect benefts to man#ind. nJB (. /cological Qalue. -- /cological value is the value that species
have in maintaining the environment. Aest, nJH erosion, and Rood control are prime benefts certain
species provide to man. Alants and animals also provide additional ecological services -- pollution
control, n.) o%ygen production, sewage treatment, and biodegradation. n.E M. -cientifc and
@tilitarian Qalue. -- -cientifc value is the use of species for research into the physical processes of
the world. n.( $ithout plants and animals, a large portion of basic scientifc research would be
impossible. @tilitarian value is the direct utility humans draw from plants and animals. n.M Only a
fraction of the NOE.(P earth's species have been e%amined, and man#ind may someday desperately
need the species that it is e%terminating today. !o accept that the snail darter, harelip suc#er, or
5ismal -wamp southeastern shrew n.L could save man#ind may be di+cult for some. =any, if not
most, species are useless to man in a direct utilitarian sense. >onetheless, they may be critical in an
indirect role, because their e%tirpations could a&ect a directly useful species negatively. In a closely
interconnected ecosystem, the loss of a species a&ects other species dependent on it. n.* =oreover,
as the number of species decline, the e&ect of each new e%tinction on the remaining species
increases dramatically. n.J L. 9iological 5iversity. -- !he main premise of species preservation is that
diversity is better than simplicity. n.. s the current mass e%tinction has progressed, the world's
biological diversity generally has decreased. !his trend occurs within ecosystems by reducing the
number of species, and within species by reducing the number of individuals. 9oth trends carry
serious future implications. 9iologically diverse ecosystems are characterized by a large number of
specialist species, flling narrow ecological niches. !hese ecosystems inherently are more stable than
less diverse systems. ,!he more comple% the ecosystem, the more successfully it can resist a
stress. . . .NlPi#e a net, in which each #not is connected to others by several strands, such a fabric can
resist collapse better than a simple, unbranched circle of threads -- which if cut anywhere brea#s
down as a whole., n.H 9y causing widespread e%tinctions, humans have artifcially simplifed many
ecosystems. s biologic simplicity increases, so does the ris# of ecosystem failure. !he spreading
-ahara 5esert in frica, and the dustbowl conditions of the EHM)s in the @nited -tates are relatively
mild e%amples of what might be e%pected if this trend continues. !heoretically, each new animal or
plant e%tinction, with all its dimly perceived and intertwined a&ects, could cause total ecosystem
collapse and human e%tinction. /ach new e%tinction increases the ris# of disaster. <i#ea mechanic
removing, one by one, the rivets from an aircraft's wings, NhuPman#ind may be edging closer to the
abyss.
Impacts: Biodiversity
TH" 2S -ANNT S2STAIN ITS -2EE"NT ''2AATIN E E"S2E-" D"E -NS2!'TIN AN?
%I?ID"ESITF ASS AE" IN"DITA%A"
*i"entel et al+ ,9) =Da2id, Ge$ecca 4arman, ,atthew 7acen#a, >ason 7ecarsk( and ,arcia 7imentel, ?Kat"ral Geso"rces
and an @ptim"m 4"man 7op"lationA, ,innesotans For S"staina$ilit(,
http://www.mnfors"stain.org/pimentelPdPnat"ralPreso"rcesPandPoptim"mPpop"lation.htmC
8ccording to the ;ashington, D&$ased 7op"lation risis ommittee, the -orl9's human &o&ulationG
c"rrentl( more than L.L $illion, is &ro=e,te9 to rea,h nearl6 8.4 4illion 46 the 6ear +*+5 an9 ma6 rea,h a 9isastrous 15
4illion 46 +1**. 'here are now ).*&* $illion people li2ing in po2ert( Smalno"rished, diseased and
experiencing short life spans. !he >o&ulation <e0eren,e ?ureau estimates that the a)erage Ameri,an ,onsumes a4out
+1 times more goo9s an9 ser)i,es than the a)erage -orl9 ,itiLen. 8mericans also $"m )-,--- liters =*R-- gallonsC
of oil&e9"i2alents per (ear Sse2en times the world a2erage. learl(, achie2ing a US stan9ar9 o0 li)ing is
im&ossi4le 0or the rest o0 the -orl9G 4ase9 4oth on &ro=e,tions o0 0uture resour,e a)aila4ilit6 an9 on &o&ulation gro-th. !he
a00luent stan9ar9 o0 li)ing no- en=o6e9 46 Ameri,ans =made possi$le $( o"r a$"ndant s"pplies of fertile
cropland, water and fossil energ(C is &ro=e,te9 to 9e,line i0 the US &o&ulation 9ou4les 9uring the ne%t 61 6ears. 3f
the US were to mo2e 9"ickl( to a renewa$le energ( econom(, with s"staina$le "se of energ(, land,
water and $iodi2ersit(, and a relati2el( high standard of li2ing, our resear,h in9i,ates that the o&timum US
&o&ulation -oul9 4e a4out +** millionG signi0i,antl6 less than the ,urrent &o&ulation of *LR million. ,ath for a Small
7lanet A&&ro%imatel6 *.5 he,tares =).*L acresC o0 ,ro&lan9 is nee9e9 to &ro)i9e one &erson -ith a 9i)erseG nutritious 9iet
o0 &lant an9 animal &ro9u,ts. !he US su&&l6 o0 ,ro&Alan9 is at this le)el no-G 4ut the -orl9 a)erage is onl6 *.+8he,tares =.R/
acresC. Bach (ear, more than ten million hectares =*+.. million acresC of once&prod"cti2e land are
degraded and a$andoned. Sim"ltaneo"sl(, an additional L million hectares =)*.H million acresC of
new land m"st $e p"t into prod"ction to feed the /* million h"mans added (earl( to the world
pop"lation. ,ost of this )L million hectares needed for expansion comes from the destr"ction of the
world!s forests. 'he "rgent need for agric"lt"ral land acco"nts for :- percent of the deforestation
now occ"rring worldwide. 4"mans do not ha2e an( technologies that can s"$stit"te for the ser2ices
pro2ided $( wild $iota. 3n the US, there are approximatel( L--,--- species of plants, animals and
micro$es that pro2ide essential f"nctions =pollinating crops, rec(cling man"re, p"rif(ing water and
soilC and ser2e as a 2ital reser2oir of genetic material. Met the -orl9 is losing roughl6 15* s&e,ies &er 9a6 0rom
su,h human a,ti)ities as 9e0orestationG &ollutionG &esti,i9e a&&li,ation an9 ur4aniLation. 3n his $ook, F"ndamentals of
Bcolog(, B. 7. @d"m reports that, i0 su00i,ient natural 4iologi,al 9i)ersit6 is to 4e maintaine9 to ensure a qualit6
en)ironmentG a4out oneAthir9 o0 the terrestrial e,os6stem shoul9 4e &reser)e9 as natural )egetation.
Impacts Overpopulation Resource Scarcity
,erpopulation causes resource scarcit+
Weiland* #4 p"$lic polic( fellow at the 7op"lation 3nstit"te =6atherine, ?%reeding 3nsec"rit(: Olo$al
Sec"rit( 3mplications @f Gapid 7op"lation Orowth,A
http://www.pop"lationinstit"te.org/cms/mod"les/7"$lications/front/li$/pdf.phpQidY)/C
8s the worldIs pop"lation contin"es to grow $( nearl( .R million people per (ear, the worldIs reso"rces are growing increasingl( scarce. 5arge
pop"lations lead to shrinking water s"pplies and cropland scarcit(. 'he UK has predicted that
world pop"lation will grow $( H $illion people o2er the next L- (ears, with * $illion of that growth
occ"rring in S"$&Saharan 8frica and the ,iddle Bast, regions where reso"rces are rapidl(
depleting, and political insta$ilit( mo"nting. Some experts, s"ch as Jacla2 Smil, ha2e p"t the
$enchmark for se2ere cropland scarcit( at .-. hectares of a2aila$le cropland per capita. 8ccording
to the 3,F, co"ntries with less than ),--- c"$ic meters of renewa$le fresh water per person are
s"Dering from ac"te water scarcit(. ;orldwide, more than H- co"ntries are $elow one of these two
$enchmarks, and fo"r co"ntries, Bg(pt, 3srael, 6"wait and @man, all in the 2olatile ,iddle Bast, are
$elow $oth $enchmarks. 'hese co"ntries also ha2e pop"lation growth rates a$o2e the de2eloping
co"ntr( a2erage of ).L percent. Gapid pop"lation growth is not the sole ca"se of reso"rce scarcit(,
$"t it has certainl( contri$"ted to water shortages, deforestation, cropland scarcit( and food
shortages. 'he co"ntries that s"Der most from shortages in food, water, and farmland are those with excessi2el( high pop"lation growth rates, 2er( large
(o"th $"lges, rapid "r$ani#ation and a$Fect po2ert(. @ne of the most de2astating conse9"ences of rapid pop"lation
growth in de2elopment co"ntries is reso"rce scarcit(, which can $reed political insta$ilit( and
glo$al insec"rit(. ;ater Shortages 4"man life depends on water. 3ts scarcit( poses a serio"s
pro$lem for s"staining the li2es and li2elihood of people thro"gho"t the de2eloping world. "rrentl(,
a$o"t ).. $illion people, a third of the de2eloping worldIs pop"lation, li2e in co"ntries with se2ere water stress. 8ccording to the ;orldwatch 3nstit"teIs State of the
;orld report, there are nearl( H- co"ntries worldwide that are at the crisis le2el of ),--- c"$ic meters of renewa$le fresh water per person. 3n Sa"di 8ra$ia, for
example, onl( .: c"$ic meters of freshwater are a2aila$le per person. 8ccording to the 7op"lation Geference %"rea", onl( H.percent of the 4aitian pop"lation had
access to safe water $etween )//- and )//.. U.S. residents, $( contrast, ha2e access to o2er )-,--- c"$ic meters of renewa$le freshwater per person. 'he
threat of ?reso"rce warsA o2er water is 2er( real. ;ater scarcit( res"lts from pop"lation growth
within co"ntries and regions. onEict res"lts from competition for small 9"antities of water. onEict can
occ"r $etween co"ntries o2er water so"rces, s"ch as ri2ers, or within co"ntries o2er water so"rces s"ch as wells. ;ater riots occ"r with some reg"larit( in 3ndia and
hina, the worldIs two most pop"lo"s co"ntries. 3n partic"lar, the State of the ;orld Geport cites a conEict o2er 3ndiaIs a"2er( Gi2er, which arose $etween the
downstream state of 'amil Kad" and the "pstream state of 6arnataka. Bach state wanted to "se the ri2er for diDerent irrigation proFects, and when no agreement
co"ld $e reached, 2iolence along the ri2er ens"ed. 'oda(, there are *RH international water $asins, with territor( in )+L nations falling within $asins. Some $asins are
shared $( a n"m$er of co"ntries, incl"ding the Dan"$e, which is shared $( ). co"ntries, and the Kile, shared $( )-co"ntries. 8s the pop"lation of co"ntries sharing
water so"rces grow, water shortages will $ecome ine2ita$le. 'he risk of water wars appears to $e greatest in the 2olatile and dr( ,iddle Bast, where pop"lation
growth rates are highest, reso"rces are scarce, and go2ernments are "nsta$le. 3n addition to conEicts o2er access to water so"rces, water scarcit( can create
tensions o2er an ine9"ita$le distri$"tion of water $( p"$lic ser2ices. S"ch conEicts generall( occ"r $etween comm"nities and go2ernments, as was the case in the
%oli2ian cit( of ocha$am$a in *---. 3n *---, the %oli2ian go2ernment pri2ati#ed water ser2ices. ocha$am$a was plag"ed $( water scarcit( and s"$se9"ent
shortages d"e to poor s"ppl( management. 8s prices rose, $"t ser2ice remained poor, protests sprang "p 0rst in the cit( and then thro"gho"t the co"ntr(. 'he
go2ernment e2ent"all( declared martial law, and 2iolence er"pted, lea2ing h"ndreds inF"red. Finall(, the contract was canceled, $"t the extent of %oli2iaIs water
scarcit( has not dissipated. %oli2iaIs fertilit( rate is c"rrentl( H.: children per women and its pop"lation is growing at )./ percent ann"all(, rates well a$o2e those in
the de2eloped world. 'he 2iolence in %oli2ia was a direct res"lt of price increases and poor management, $"t at the core it was a water shortage, f"eled $( rapid
"r$ani#ation and pop"lation growth, that led to fr"stration and tension. 8s water $ecomes scarce in de2eloping co"ntries, alread( poor comm"nities str"ggle for their
2er( s"r2i2al and li2elihood, f"eling enormo"s tensions $etween gro"ps competing for access to limited 9"antities of water. ,ost co"ntries s"Dering
from water shortages are alread( poor, often with relati2el( "nsta$le go2ernments, creating
conditions fa2ora$le to the 9"ick escalation of conEict from locali#ed riots to large&scale ci2il
"nrest. ;ater scarcit( poses the greatest threat to sec"rit( in co"ntries and regions s"Dering from political insta$ilit( and "nderde2elopment. Food 3nsec"rit(
and ropland Scarcit( @ne of the gra2est world challenges is meeting the growing need for food. ;hile ,alth"sian predictions of widespread famines ha2e not
de2eloped, food and cropland scarcit( are serio"s pro$lems in the de2eloping world. Gapid pop"lation growth in the worldIs poorest co"ntries has red"ced cropland
a2aila$ilit( to crisis le2els in man( of them. ;hile there is plent( of food a2aila$le to meet the need of the worldIs pop"lation, in the de2eloping world, pop"lation and
en2ironmental trends ha2e led to se2ere har2est and cropland shortages. 'here are man( ca"ses of food insec"rit(. For the past few decades, the world has depended
on a handf"l of co"ntriesSthe U.S., 8"stralia, anada and 8rgentinaSfor most grain exports. 4owe2er, these co"ntries ha2e recentl( $eg"n to c"t $ack on exports,
lea2ing de2eloping co"ntries in a relati2e state of crisis. 'he Barth 7olic( 3nstit"te points o"t that world pop"lation growth has c"t
grainland per person in half from .*H hectares in )/L- to .)) in *---. 'his drastic red"ction in
a2aila$le grainland makes s"$sistence farming 2er( diDic"lt. Ged"ction in grainland d"e to soil
erosion and poor irrigation res"lts in deserti0cation, which has $ecome a serio"s pro$lem in
,exico, Kigeria, 8lgeria, 3ran, 6a#akhstan, 3ndia and hina, all co"ntries that are important in
terms of glo$al sec"rit(. 3n de2eloping co"ntries s"ch as these, shortages of land threaten not onl(
farmersI li2elihood $"t also the a$ilit( of nations to feed their pop"lation, opening "p the risk of
famine. ,assi2e food shortages and growing h"nger also increase the risk of political insta$ilit( and
ci2il "nrest. 8s pop"lations grow, the need for food grows as well. hinaIs cons"mption, for example, is expected to grow to L- million tons of grain per (ear,
an amo"nt that, according to agric"lt"re expert 5ester %rown, will 9"ickl( o2erwhelm existing grain markets. 'his mo"nting pro$lem will aDect the entire world,
partic"larl( the United States, as hina will look to compete with 8mericans for U.S. grains. 3ncreases in cons"mption $( co"ntries s"ch as hina will also mean that
smaller, de2eloping co"ntries will not $e a$le to import eno"gh grain to feed their pop"lations. 'hese conditions ha2e the potential to create "nrest and political
insta$ilit( thro"gho"t the de2eloping world, as well as to exert press"re on the world econom(. ;ith rises in cons"mption, conEict can $reak o"t within co"ntries o2er
reso"rces, and $etween co"ntries o2er imports and exports. B2en when cropland is not so scarce as to precipitate famine, cropland scarcit( makes earning a li2ing
increasingl( diDic"lt for farmers. 8s a res"lt, cropland disp"tes are increasingl( common in reso"rce&scarce co"ntries and regions as farmers str"ggle economicall(.
@ne of the $est&known conEicts o2er land is the Wapatista re$ellion that took place in the hiapas region of so"thern ,exico in the )//-s. 'he conEict was the res"lt
of alread( existing tension $etween powerf"l landowners and landless ,a(an peasants, exacer$ated $( cropland scarcit(. ropland scarcit( in hiapas in the (ears
preceding the conEict was ca"sed primaril( $( deforestation and soil erosion. ;hile soil erosion in hiapas was generall( ca"sed $( en2ironmental factors, incl"ding
lack of rainfall, deforestation was directl( related to pop"lation growth. 'homas 4omer Dixon of the Uni2ersit( of 'oronto p"ts pop"lation growth in hiapas at H.R
percent $etween )/.- to )//R and maintains that the pop"lation growth rate for the ,a(an pop"lation d"ring this period was as high as L+.R percent. 3n addition,
migration from O"atemala added another H--,--- residents to hiapas from )/:H to )/:R. 8s the pop"lation of hiapas grew, a2aila$le cropland decreased and
deforestation res"lted. @nl( H.. percent of deforested land was "sed for agric"lt"re, leading to se2ere cropland scarcit( that placed se2ere stress on the alread(
str"ggling ,a(an peasants. 'he proportion of land occ"pied $( the wealth( landowners grew, while the land a2aila$le to peasants shrank, making earning a li2ing
nearl( impossi$le. 'ensions contin"ed to escalate $etween the two gro"ps. ;hile the ,a(an peasants did not start the "prising, the Wapatistas "sed the tension
$etween the peasants and the landowners to rall( peasants to their side, promising a more e9"ita$le distri$"tion of scarce land if the Wapatistas won their re$ellion.
'he case of hiapas makes clear the connection $etween pop"lation growth and cropland scarcit( and conEict. 'he hiapas conEict was, and is, one of the main
forces for insta$ilit( in ,exico, a co"ntr( whose sec"rit( and sta$ilit( is extremel( important to the United States. 'he Wapatista re$ellion is not the onl( example of a
conEict f"eled $( pop"lation growth and reso"rce scarcit(. ,an( experts contend that the de2astating genocide in )//- Gwanda was
ca"sed partl( $( demographic factors. Gwanda and its neigh$or %"r"ndi s"Der from some of the
highest pop"lation growth rates in the world. >ared Diamond, U58 Oeograph( professor and 7"lit#er 7ri#e&winning a"thor, arg"es that
the conEict in the 6anama region in northwestern Gwanda was ca"sed almost entirel( $( farmland scarcit( res"lting from rapid pop"lation growth, as the region was
inha$ited onl( $( 4"t"s (et experienced high rates of 2iolence. 3n this region, the a2erage n"m$er of people per farm ho"sehold increased rapidl( when (o"ng people
co"ld not 0nd land o"tside their famil( propert(, creating farm plots so small that it was 2irt"all( impossi$le to reap meaningf"l har2ests. 'he economic conse9"ences
of attempting to split land $etween man( heirs can $e felt thro"gho"t the de2eloping world. 3n Gwanda, tensions arose $etween wealth(
large landowners and s"$sistence farmers. 5and disp"tes ca"sed serio"s conEicts that se2ered
famil( ties, and t"rned close relati2es into competitors and $itter enemies. 'he region experienced rising le2els of
2iolence and theft, perpetrated namel( $( h"ngr( landless (o"ng people witho"t oD&farm income. Diamond asserts that crime rates in all of Gwanda correlated
statisticall( with pop"lation densit( and per&capita a2aila$ilit( of calories: high pop"lation densities and worse star2ation were directl( associated with increased
crime.
Impacts Overpopulation War
-ontinued population growt( will lead to et(nic wars o,er land t(reatening
e)istence
%rown #4 Barth 7olic( 3nstit"te [5ester G. @"tgrowing the Barth: 'he Food Sec"rit(
hallenge in an 8ge of Falling ;ater 'a$les and Gising 'emperat"res, http://www.earth&
polic(.org/%ooks/@"t/ch)Pearthlimits.pdf]
7op"lation, 5and, and onEict As lan9 and water 4e,ome s,ar,eG -e ,an e%&e,t mounting so,ial tensions
-ithin so,ietiesG &arti,ularl6 4et-een those -ho are &oor an9 9is&ossesse9 an9 those -ho are -ealth6G as -ell as among ethni,
an9 religious grou&sG as ,om&etition 0or these )ital resour,es intensi0ies. >o&ulation gro-th 4rings -ith it a stea96 shrin2age o0
li0eAsu&&orting resour,es &er &erson. !hat 9e,lineG -hi,h is threatening to 9ro& the li)ing stan9ar9s o0 more an9 more &eo&le
4elo- sur)i)al le)elG ,oul9 lea9 to unmanagea4le so,ial tensions that -ill translate into 4roa94ase9 ,on0li,ts. ;orldwide,
the area in grain expanded from L/- million hectares =),+L. million acresC in )/L- to its
historical peak of .H- million hectares in )/:). %( *--+, it had fallen to R.- million
hectares. $)en as the -orl9;s &o&ulation ,ontinues to gro-G the area a)aila4le 0or &ro9u,ing grain is shrin2ing.))
Bxpanding world pop"lation c"t the grainland area per person in half, from -.*H hectares
=-.L. acresC in )/L- to -.)) hectares in *---. =See Fig"re *<).C 'his area of F"st o2er one
tenth of a hectare per person is half the si#e of a $"ilding lot in an ae"ent U.S. s"$"r$. !his
hal)ing o0 grainlan9 area &er &erson ma2es it more 9i00i,ult 0or the -orl9;s 0armers to 0ee9 the 7* million or more &eo&le a99e9
ea,h 6ear. 3f c"rrent pop"lation proFections materiali#e and if the o2erall grainland area
remains constant, the area per person will shrink to -.-. hectares in *-L-, less than two
thirds that in *---.)* 8a)ing less ,ro&lan9 &er &erson not onl6 threatens li)elihoo9sI in largel6 su4sisten,e so,ieties
-ith nutrient9e&lete9 soilsG it threatens sur)i)al itsel0. !ensions among &eo&le 4egin to 4uil9 as lan9 hol9ings shrin2 4elo- that
nee9e9 0or sur)i)al. !he Sahelian Lone of 8frica, the $road swatch of the continent $etween the
Sahara Desert and the more l"sh forested land to the so"th, which stretches from S"dan in
the east thro"gh ,a"ritania in the west, has one o0 the -orl9;s 0astestAgro-ing &o&ulations. It is also an area
o0 s&rea9ing ,on0li,ts.)H 3n tro"$led S"dan, * million people ha2e died in the long&standing
conEict $etween the ,"slim north and the hristian so"th. 'he conEict in the Darf"r
region in western S"dan in *--+ ill"strates the mo"nting tensions $etween two ,"slim
gro"psS8ra$ camel herders and $lack 8frican s"$sistence farmers. Oo2ernment troops
are $acking 8ra$ militias, who are engaging in the wholesale sla"ghter of $lack 8fricans in
an eDort to dri2e them oD their land, sending them into ref"gee camps in had.)+ In Nigeria,
where )H- million people are crammed into an area not m"ch larger than 'exas, o)ergraLing
an9 o)er&lo-ing are ,on)erting 151G*** he,tares =),HL- s9"are milesC o0 grasslan9 an9 ,ro&lan9 into 9esert ea,h 6ear.
!he ,on0li,t 4et-een 0armers an9 her9ers in Nigeria is a -ar 0or sur)i)al. 8s the New York Times reported in
>"ne *--+, ?in re,ent 6earsG as the 9esert has s&rea9G trees ha)e 4een 0elle9 an9 the &o&ulations o0 4oth her9ers an9
0armers ha)e soare9G the ,om&etition 0or lan9 has onl6 intensi0ie9.A)L Unfort"natel(, the 9i)ision 4et-een her9ers an9
0armers is also o0ten the 9i)ision 4et-een Muslims an9 Christians. !his ,om&etition 0or lan9G am&li0ie9 46 religious 9i00eren,es
an9 ,om4ine9 -ith a large num4er o0 0rustrate9 6oung men -ith gunsG has created what the New York Times
descri$es as a ?com$"sti$le mixA that has ?f"eled a recent org( of 2iolence across this
fertile central Kigerian state [6e$$i]. h"rches and mos9"es were ra#ed. Keigh$or t"rned
against neigh$or. Geprisal attacks spread "ntil 0nall(, in mid&,a(, the go2ernment
imposed emergenc( r"le.A)R Similar 9i)isions e%ist 4et-een her9ers an9 0armers in northern Mali, the Times
noted, where ?swords and sticks ha2e $een ch"cked for 6alashniko2s, as 9eserti0i,ation an9
&o&ulation gro-th ha)e sti00ene9 the ,om&etition 4et-een the largel6 4la,2 A0ri,an 0armers an9 the ethni, !uareg an9 Culani
her9ers. !em&ers are ra- on 4oth si9es. 'he disp"te, after all, is o2er li2elihood and e2en more, a$o"t
a wa( of life.A). ;ater, too, is a so"rce of growing tension. 8ltho"gh m"ch has $een said
a$o"t the conEicts $etween and among co"ntries o2er water reso"rces, some of the most
$itter disagreements are taking place within co"ntries where needs of local pop"lations
are o"tr"nning the s"staina$le (ield of wells. 5ocal water riots are $ecoming increasingl(
common in co"ntries like hina and 3ndia. 3n the competition $etween cities and the
co"ntr(side, cities in2aria$l( win, often depri2ing farmers of their irrigation water and
th"s their li2elihood.): 'he proFected addition to the earthIs pop"lation of H $illion people
$( *-L-, the 2ast maForit( of whom will $e added in co"ntries where water ta$les alread(
are falling and wells are going dr(, is not a recipe for economic progress and political
sta$ilit(. ontin"ing pop"lation growth in co"ntries alread( o2erp"mping their a9"ifers
and draining their ri2ers dr( co"ld lead to ac"te h(drological po2ert(, a sit"ation in which
people simpl( do not ha2e eno"gh water to meet their $asic needs.)/
Impacts Overpopulation war
,erpopulation leads to nuclear war and t(e collapse o0 ci,iliMation
"(rlic( and "(rlic(* :#& 7rofessor of 7op"lation St"dies and 7rofessor of 7s(chological
St"dies and 7rofessor of %iological Sciences at Stanford Uni2ersit( < 7rofessor in the
Department of %iological Sciences and the enter for onser2ation of %iolog( at
Stanford Uni2ersit( && )//- =7a"l and 8nna Bhrlich ?'he 7op"lation BxplosionA p. ).)C
,ost of the world!s other rich nations reali#e that there is now an "nparalleled nonmilitar(
threat to their sec"rit(. 3t has $een created $( rapid depletion of Barth!s nonrenewa$le
reso"rces, deterioration of the glo$al en2ironment, and the widening of the economic gap
$etween rich nations of the ind"striali#ed Korth and poor nations of the So"th&all
contri$"ted to mightil( $( exploding h"man pop"lations. 'hat threat not onl( portends a
contin"al deterioration of li2ing standards 2irt"all( e2er(where in time of peace, $"t also
contri$"tes to conEict $etween nationsH: and th"s increases the chances of n"clear war.
8n end to ci2ili#ation ca"sed $( o2erpop"lation and en2ironmental collapse wo"ld amo"nt
to a gigantic 1traged( of the commons1&to "se the phrase made famo"s $( Oarrett 4ardin.
H/ 3ndi2id"als =or nationsC acting independentl( for their short&term gain create sit"ations
that, in the long term, destro( common reso"rces =1the common1C. +- 8s 4ardin wrote,
1G"in is the destination toward which all men r"sh, each p"rs"ing his own $est interest in
a societ( that $elie2es in the freedom of the commons. Freedom in a commons $rings r"in
to all.1 4is reference is to o2ergra#ing of a 2illage!s common past"re; ci2ili#ation!s r"in will
stem from treatment of the glo$al ecos(stem as a 1commons1 that can $e exploited $(
e2er( nation witho"t tho"ght for their common sec"rit(.
Impacts Overpopulation War
'opulation growt( and o,erpopulation is t(e ultimate cause o0 war* in A0rica
population growt( will lead to needless suBering o0 (undreds o0 millions o0 people
-aldwell* #2 < *--* =>oseph Oeorge aldwell 7hD, ?7op"lation ,oderationA
http://www.fo"ndation.$w/@n;ar8nd7eace.htmC
@2erpop"lation is a maFor ca"se of war. 8ll species, incl"ding h"man $eings, $reed
proli0call(. 3t is axiomatic that species $reed to the limits imposed $( their en2ironments.
8n ecological e9"ili$ri"m, or ?$alance of nat"reA e2ol2es and remains sta$le o2er a long
period of time. 3n times past, h"man $eings relied on infanticide and war as principal
means of red"cing or moderating h"man n"m$ers, when the carr(ing capacit( of the land
was reached. 'hese were the same processes "sed $( other animal species in response to
o2ercrowding.
;ith the ad2ent of hristianit( as a maFor religion on the planet, the "se of infanticide as a
means of pop"lation control declined, and war remained the maFor polic( tool "sed to
address o2erpop"lation. 'here are two aspects of the relationship of o2erpop"lation to
war. First is the response of a gro"p that is $eing ?s9"ee#edA $( the increase in
pop"lation of another gro"p =e.g., the 8merican nati2es $( B"ropean settlersC. Second is
the response of a go2ernment to the increase in the si#e of its own pop"lation. 8ltho"gh it
is said that ?a prince witho"t pop"lation is witho"t power,A nations thro"gho"t histor(
ha2e responded to their own o2erpop"lation =ina$ilit( of the land to feed the citi#ensC $(
la"nching war =e.g., the Oreek wars of .L- < LL- %..C. 'he response to o2erpop"lation in2ol2ed $oth the national leadership and the famil(. 3n the recent
histor( of ;estern B"rope, it was common practice for each famil( to send its second and later sons to Foin the militar( < onl( the 0rst son wo"ld inherit the land, in
order to a2oid fractionali#ing the famil(Is landholdings. ;hen pop"lation exceeded the capacit( of the land to s"pport it, the national leadership proceeded to la"nch
war on its neigh$ors. ;ars contin"ed for (ears, and tho"sands and tho"sands died. 'he leaders of the com$atant co"ntries m"t"all( recogni#ed the 2al"e of war in
moderating pop"lation < it was not a ?0ght to the death,A and neither go2ernment was in Feopard(. S"n '#" o$ser2ed that it was not in the interest of a state to
$ecome in2ol2ed in a protracted war, $"t he was speaking of a war that signi0cantl( drained national reso"rces, not a long&term ware that helped to moderate
pop"lation si#e.
;ar is not, of co"rse, the onl( phenomenon that moderates h"man pop"lation si#e. %ad
weather ma( lead to famines, and climate change ma( lead to permanent changes in
h"man pop"lation le2els. Disease has sometimes pla(ed a signi0cant role in moderating
pop"lation, as in the case of the %lack Death =$"$onic plag"eC in medie2al B"rope and
perhaps 43J/83DS in 8frica and 8sia toda(. 'he principal topic of this article, howe2er, is
war, not o2erpop"lation, and so the disc"ssion is concerned mainl( with the role of
o2erpop"lation as a ca"se of war, rather than with the inE"ence of war on o2erpop"lation.
,ost nations toda( are not terri$l( concerned with o2erpop"lation, and wo"ld not consider
going to war as a means of pop"lation control. 'he( will still go to war in response to
pop"lation press"re from another gro"p =i.e., as a res"lt of o2erpop"lationC, $"t not as a
proacti2e pop"lation&control meas"re.
,odern times ha2e se2erel( restricted the "se of infanticide and war as pop"lation&control meas"res, with the res"lt that pop"lations ha2e exploded. 'he most
egregio"s example is 8frica =where 3 ha2e worked for a n"m$er of (earsC. 7rior to a few h"ndred (ears ago, infanticide and war =and selling of sla2esC were "sed to
keep the pop"lation in $alance with the rest of the en2ironment. 3f pop"lation increases or en2ironmental changes occ"rred so that the land co"ld no longer s"pport
the pop"lation =$( farming or h"nting and gatheringC, a tri$e or part of it simpl( mo2ed on to other land. 3f there were alread( people there, war ens"ed, the losing
tri$e was exterminated, and the land contin"ed to s"pport the h"man pop"lation.
;ith the ad2ent of the ind"strial age, disaster ens"ed. Disease control meas"res lowered the death rate, and the imposition of colonial r"le pre2ented local tri$es
from mo2ing aro"nd and waging war to keep pop"lation in line with carr(ing capacit(. hristianit( and changing ;estern morals, laws, and economics imposed
restrictions on infanticide and sla2ing. 'he pop"lation $egan to grow rapidl(. For most of the twentieth cent"r(, the pop"lation growth rate was an astronomical
three percent per ann"m, with the pop"lation do"$ling a$o"t e2er( two decades.
'he impact on the en2ironment was de2astating. 'he $eginning of the end was 9"ite apparent $( the middle of the twentieth cent"r(, when women gathering
0rewood co"ld no longer o$tain s"Dicient 0rewood from deadfall, and started to "se li2e trees for f"el. 8ltho"gh colonial r"le ended shortl( after mid&cent"r(, the new
nations of 8frica ne2er ret"rned to their former means of pop"lation control. 8s the pop"lation grew witho"t $o"nd, the point was 9"ickl( reached at which the land
co"ld no longer s"pport the people. 8s a res"lt of massi2e o2ercrowding and gross intermingling, disease < nota$l( 43J/83DS < $ecame rampant. 'he pop"lation of
8frica is perhaps one h"ndred times what can $e s"pported $( traditional means =traditional farming, cattle&raising, h"nting and gatheringC. =3t is one tho"sand times
that re9"ired for a health( $alance of nat"re and meaningf"l h"man existence.C 3n the a$sence of war, the pop"lation has exploded and disease has $ecome rampant
=the 43J rate is o2er H- percent in man( 8frican co"ntriesC. 7o2ert(, 2irt"all( "nknown a millenni"m ago, is now a horri$le prison for h"ndreds of millions of people
on the continent. 'he social costs of glo$al ind"striali#ation on 8frica ha2e $een catastrophic. 3n earlier times, 8frica was characteri#ed $( strong tri$al social
str"ct"res. ,en had a signi0cant role to pla( in famil( and societ(. 'heir role was to protect the tri$e and the famil( from wild animals and to wage war. 'heir
actions kept the h"man pop"lation in line with the a$ilit( of the land to s"pport it. ;ith gross o2erpop"lation, most 8frican men ha2e no means of pro2iding an
accepta$le le2el of li2ing for their families. 'he( ha2e $een emasc"lated $( glo$al ind"striali#ation. 3nternational organi#ations and agencies =United Kations, ;orld
%ank, 3nternational ,onetar( F"ndC claim that 8fricaIs pro$lems are the res"lt of 8frican c"lt"ral shortcomings, s"ch as corr"ption =the chief/leader controls
e2er(thing, lack of democrac(, transparenc(, etc.C and regional wars. 'his is completel( false. 'he( sa( this $eca"se it is good for glo$al $"siness to ha2e h"ndreds of
millions of 8frican cons"mers, no matter how desperatel( poor the( ma( $e, and no matter that their societ( has $een destro(ed and will contin"e to $e destro(ed as
long as glo$ali#ation contin"es. 3t was 8frican c"lt"re, incl"ding war as the l(nchpin, that kept 8fricans free and health( for millions of (ears. ;ar kept 8frica
health(. 7eace has destro(ed it. %ad planetar( go2ernment =democrac(, anarch(C has destro(ed it. 7op"lation Orowth a"ses ;ar ;hat 8frica needs
is more war, not less of it. ;hat 8frica needs is a$le and responsi$le planetar(
go2ernment, not go2ernment $( the masses or anarch(. ;hen the pop"lation of 8frica
drops $( a factor of one h"ndred or one tho"sand, when mass crowding is gone, when
gross intermingling of peoples ceases, when glo$al ind"striali#ation ends and good
planetar( go2ernance is esta$lished, then 8fricaIs health < and happiness < will ret"rn.
5est there $e an( mis"nderstanding, 3 am "sing 8frica simpl( as an example. ;hat is
happening in 8frica is happening worldwide, F"st at a diDerent rate. 'he world is $eing
choked to death $( glo$al ind"striali#ation and peace < and go2ernment that is not s"ited
to responsi$le planetar( management.
Impacts Overpopulation War
'opulation growt( ine,ita1l+ means conSicts o,er resources
Segel&en* :: < )/// =Goger Segelken, ?8.D. *)--: St"d( predicts misera$le life on
o2ercrowded Barth, "nlessdA Septem$er, ornell Kews,
http://www.news.cornell.ed"/hronicle/////.H-.///s"staina$lePlife.htmlC
@ne h"ndred (ears from now, democraticall( determined pop"lation&control practices and
so"nd reso"rce&management policies co"ld ha2e the planet!s * $illion people thri2ing in
harmon( with the en2ironment. 5acking these approaches, a new ornell st"d( s"ggests,
)* $illion misera$le h"mans will s"Der a diDic"lt life on Barth $( the (ear *)--.
1@f co"rse, red"cing pop"lation and "sing reso"rces wisel( will $e a challenging task in
the coming decades,1 said Da2id 7imentel, professor of ecolog( and e2ol"tionar( $iolog(
and lead a"thor of the report titled 1;ill 5imits of the Barth!s Geso"rces ontrol 4"man
K"m$ersQ1 in the 0rst iss"e of the Fo"rnal Environment, *evelopment and Sustainability.
13t will $e m"ch more diDic"lt,1 7imentel said, 1to s"r2i2e in a world witho"t 2ol"ntar(
controls on pop"lation growth and e2er diminishing s"pplies of the Barth!s reso"rces.1
B2en at a red"ced world pop"lation of * $illion in 8.D. *)--, life for the a2erage Barth
dweller will not $e as l"x"rio"s as it is for man( 8mericans toda(. %"t the lifest(le won!t $e
as wastef"l of reso"rces, either, the ornell ecologist predicts. Some o$ser2ers are seeing
earl( signs that nat"re is taking a hand at red"cing h"man pop"lations thro"gh
maln"trition and disease. 8ccording to the report, glo$al climate change is $eginning to
contri$"te to the food and disease pro$lems.
1;ith a democraticall( determined pop"lation polic( that respects $asic indi2id"al rights,
with so"nd reso"rce&"se policies, pl"s the s"pport of science and technolog( to enhance
energ( s"pplies and protect the integrit( of the en2ironment,1 the report concl"des, 1an
optim"m pop"lation of * $illion for the Barth can $e achie2ed.1
'hen the fort"nate * $illion will $e free from po2ert( and star2ation, li2ing in an
en2ironment capa$le of s"staining h"man life with dignit(, the report s"ggests, adding a
ca"tionar( note: 1;e m"st a2oid letting h"man n"m$ers contin"e to increase and s"rpass
the limit of Barth!s nat"ral reso"rces and forcing nat"ral forces to control o"r n"m$er $(
disease, maln"trition and 2iolent conEicts o2er reso"rces.1
8mong the ke( points in the report:
'he world pop"lation is proFected to do"$le in a$o"t L- (ears.
B2en if a worldwide limit of *.) children per co"ple were adopted tomorrow, Barth!s
h"man pop"lation wo"ld contin"e to increase $efore sta$ili#ing at aro"nd )* $illion
in more than R- (ears. 'he maFor reason for contin"ed growth is 1pop"lation
moment"m,1 d"e to the predominantl( (o"ng age str"ct"re of the world pop"lation.
'he U.S. pop"lation has do"$led d"ring the past R- (ears to *.- million and, at the
c"rrent growth rate, is proFected to do"$le again, to L+- million, in the next .L
(ears. Bach (ear o"r nation adds H million people =incl"ding legal immigrantsC to its
pop"lation, pl"s an estimated +--,--- illegal immigrants.
3ncreasing U.S. and glo$al pop"lation will place restrictions on certain freedoms:
freedom to tra2el and comm"te to work 9"ickl( and eDicientl(, freedom to 2isit and
enFo( nat"ral areas, freedom to select desired foods and freedom to $e eDecti2el(
represented $( go2ernment.
'oda(, more than H $illion people s"Der from maln"trition, the largest n"m$er and
proportion of the world pop"lation in histor(, according to the ;orld 4ealth
@rgani#ation. ,aln"trition increases the s"scepti$ilit( to diseases s"ch as diarrhea
and malaria.
@ne reason for the increase in maln"trition is that prod"ction of grains per capita
has $een declining since )/:H. Orains pro2ide :- percent to /- percent of the
world!s food. Bach additional h"man f"rther red"ces a2aila$le food per capita.
Impacts Overpopulation War
")cessi,e population growt( causes ci,il conSicts
-incotta* "ngelman* Anastasion* #3 < Senior Gesearch 8ssociate, Jice 7resident for
Gesearch, and Gesearch StaD at 7op"lation 8ction < *--H =Gichard incotta, Go$ert
Bngelman, and Daniele 8nastasion, ?'he Sec"rit( Demographic & 7op"lation and i2il
onEict 8fter the old ;arA 8"g"st
http://www.pop"lationaction.org/7"$lications/Geports/'hePSec"rit(PDemographic/S"mmar
(.shtmlC
Do the d(namics of h"man pop"lation S rates of growth, age str"ct"re, distri$"tion and
more S inE"ence when and where warfare will next $reak o"tQ 'he 0ndings of this report
s"ggest that the risks of ci2il conEict =deadl( 2iolence $etween go2ernments and non&state
ins"rgents, or $etween state factions within territorial $o"ndariesC that are generated $(
demographic factors ma( $e m"ch more signi0cant than generall( recogni#ed, and worth(
of more serio"s consideration $( national sec"rit( polic(makers and researchers. 3ts
concl"sions S drawn from a re2iew of literat"re and anal(ses of data from ):- co"ntries,
a$o"t half of which experienced ci2il conEict at some time from )/.- thro"gh *--- S
arg"e that:
Gecent progress along the demographic transition S a pop"lationIs shift from high to low
rates of $irth and death S is associated with contin"o"s declines in the 2"lnera$ilit( of
nation&states to ci2il conEict. 3f this association contin"es thro"gh the *)st cent"r(, then a
range of policies promoting small, health( and $etter ed"cated families and long li2es
among pop"lations in de2eloping co"ntries seems likel( to enco"rage greater political
sta$ilit( in weak states and to enhance glo$al sec"rit( in the f"t"re.
Impacts Overpopulation War
'opulation growt( means re,erting to a world post3nuclear war wit( (ig( tension
"(rlic( and "(rlic(* 1::1 < 7rofessor of 7op"lation St"dies and 7rofessor of
7s(chological St"dies and 7rofessor of %iological Sciences at Stanford Uni2ersit( <
7rofessor in the Department of %iological Sciences and the enter for onser2ation of
%iolog( at Stanford Uni2ersit( < )//) =7a"l G. Bhrlich and 8nne 4. Bhrlich, 'he 7op"lation
Bxplosion, p.).LC
%"t for now, after fort( (ears of worr(ing a$o"t it, the %ang seems to $e getting less likel(.
'he same can!t $e said a$o"t 1the ;himper.1 'he ;himper is simpl( the wa( that
ci2ili#ation will end if c"rrent pop"lation/reso"rce/en2ironment trends contin"e. S"ch a
contin"ation co"ld $ring "s essentiall( to the same sort of world as wo"ld $e left after a
n"clear war and a n"clear winterSF"st more slowl(, on a time scale of (ears rather than
weeks.
'he exact se9"ence of e2ents in the ;himper is impossi$le to predict. 3f pop"lation growth
contin"es on its c"rrent path, $oth ecos(stems and social s(stems will $e s"$Fected to
greater and greater stresses of man( kinds. 3t seems likel( that h"nger, alread( aDecting a
$illion or so people more or less chronicall(, will $ecome ac"te in more places. 'hat, in
t"rn, will make the epidemiological en2ironment e2er more precario"s and increase $oth
intranational and international sociopolitical tensions. 7eople in rich nations ma( $e a$le
to ignore star2ation in the poorest nations for a while, $"t increasing h"nger and
disaDection among the poor within rich nations will $e more diDic"lt for elites to o2erlook.
,erpopulation will lead to world war 3
To1ias* :$ < ecologist < )//: =,ichael 'o$ias, ?;orld ;ar 333: 7op"lation and %iosphere at
the Bnd of the ,illenni"mA, p):C
'his is a new kind of war, glo$al in scope, (et remarka$l( concentrated where2er there is
$oot( to $e had. 'he $oot( refers to all those desira$le aDects, the g"arantees of a wa( of
life to which more and more people wo"ld like to $ecome acc"stomed, incl"ding s"ch
things as 2al"e&added trade s"rpl"ses, sec"red s"ppl( lines of fossil f"els, refrigerators,
sk(scrapers, and intellect"al propert( rights. For most of the world!s pop"lation, howe2er,
clean water, medical s"pplies, electricit(, and n"tritio"s food wo"ld s"Dice for now. @"r
weapons ma( $e as sophisticated as those "sed against 3ra9 in the 7ersian O"lf ;ar, or as
immemoriall( simple as a plo"gh scratching a $it of hard t"rf in the highlands of Bthiopia.
;hile the conEict in the 7ersian O"lf imposed m(riad le2els of stress on the en2ironment
=decimation, the $etter wordC, the Bthiopian farmer imposes an ino$2io"s, $"t nonetheless
war&torn $"rden on the land, altogether F"sti0a$le, (et tragicall( linked to the incremental
destr"ction of the nonh"man world. Kot s"rprisingl(, the fer2or for this war is carried on with o"r most impressi2e instincts. ;hat we
call ci2ili#ation, progress, economic prosperit(, e2en&remarka$l(&h"man empath(, the 1enem(1 =o"r $iological s"rro"ndingsC more than likel( 2iews diDerentl(.
Bconomic prosperit( in hina is s(stematicall( destro(ing hinese en2ironment, from snow leopards in 'i$et to est"aries on the Mellow Sea. 'he same sorr( s(ndrome,
to 2ar(ing degrees, is $eing perpetrated thro"gho"t e2er( co"ntr( in the world, where the diDerences $etween cit( and 2illage are 2anishing in the shadows of
expansi2e and destr"cti2e de2elopment. 'he end&loser of all this h"man 1progress1 is nat"re. 'he r"nawa( press"res on the
$iosphere of nearl( six $illion h"man $odies are con2erting an original, "ntainted world
into a meaningless 1reso"rce.1 8s we exting"ish those limited reso"rces, le2eling whole
ecos(stems in o"r 9"est to feed, clothe, shelter, inoc"late, and ed"cate the nearl( *R-
tho"sand new$orns e2er(da(, we rel( "pon increasing concentrations of the machiner(,
monetar(, or political pro0ts of war.
Impacts Overpopulation Water Wars
,erpopulation leads to conSicts o,er water supplies
%rown #4 Barth 7olic( 3nstit"te [5ester G. @"tgrowing the Barth: 'he Food Sec"rit(
hallenge in an 8ge of Falling ;ater 'a$les and Gising 'emperat"res, http://www.earth&
polic(.org/%ooks/@"t/ch)Pearthlimits.pdf]
:ater, too, is a sour,e o0 gro-ing tension. 8ltho"gh m"ch has $een said a$o"t the conEicts $etween
and among co"ntries o2er water reso"rces, some of the most $itter disagreements are
taking place within co"ntries where needs of local pop"lations are o"tr"nning the
s"staina$le (ield of wells. 5ocal -ater riots are 4e,oming in,reasingl6 ,ommon in ,ountries li2e China an9 In9ia.
3n the competition $etween cities and the co"ntr(side, cities in2aria$l( win, often
depri2ing farmers of their irrigation water and th"s their li2elihood.): 'he &ro=e,te9 a99ition to the
earth;s &o&ulation o0 1 4illion &eo&le 46 +*5*G the )ast ma=orit6 o0 -hom -ill 4e a99e9 in ,ountries -here -ater ta4les alrea96
are 0alling an9 -ells are going 9r6G is not a re,i&e 0or e,onomi, &rogress an9 &oliti,al sta4ilit6. Continuing &o&ulation gro-th
in ,ountries alrea96 o)er&um&ing their aqui0ers an9 9raining their ri)ers 9r6 ,oul9 lea9 to a,ute h69rologi,al &o)ert6, a
sit"ation in which people simpl( do not ha2e eno"gh water to meet their $asic needs.)/
Water crisis coming
%rown #2 president of the Barth 7olic( 3nstit"te =5ester ?;ater De0cits Orowing in
,an( o"ntries: ;ater Shortages ,a( a"se Food ShortagesA 8"g"st R, http://www.earth&
polic(.org/Updates/Update)L.htmC
'he world is inc"rring a 2ast water de0cit. 3t is largel( in2isi$le, historicall( recent, and
growing fast. %eca"se this impending crisis t(picall( takes the form of a9"ifer
o2erp"mping and falling water ta$les, it is not 2isi$le. Unlike $"rning forests or in2ading
sand d"nes, falling water ta$les cannot $e readil( photographed. 'he( are often
disco2ered onl( when wells go dr(. 'he world water de0cit is recent&&a prod"ct of the
tripling of water demand o2er the last half&cent"r( and the rapid worldwide spread of
powerf"l diesel and electricall( dri2en p"mps. 'he drilling of millions of wells has p"shed
water withdrawals $e(ond the recharge of man( a9"ifers. 'he fail"re of go2ernments to
limit p"mping to the s"staina$le (ield of a9"ifers means that water ta$les are now falling
in scores of co"ntries.
@amil+ planning is &e+ to control population growt( to pre,ent water s(ortages
%rown #2 president of the Barth 7olic( 3nstit"te =5ester ?;ater De0cits Orowing in
,an( o"ntries: ;ater Shortages ,a( a"se Food ShortagesA 8"g"st R, http://www.earth&
polic(.org/Updates/Update)L.htmC
'he two ke(s to sta$ili#ing a9"ifers are raising water prices and sta$ili#ing pop"lation.
'he 0rst step is to eliminate the per2asi2e s"$sidies that create arti0ciall( low prices for
water in so man( co"ntries. 'he next is to raise water prices to the point where the( will
red"ce p"mping to a s"staina$le le2el $( raising water prod"cti2it( and red"cing water
"se in all segments of societ(. 5ow&income "r$an cons"mers can $e protected with 1lifeline
rates1 that pro2ide for $asic needs at an aDorda$le price. 7rices of "ndergro"nd water can
$e raised $( installing meters on p"mps and charging for water as ,exico has done or $(
a"ctioning permits to operate wells. Bither wa(, water prices rise. 'he second ke( is to
9"ickl( sta$ili#e pop"lation in water&short co"ntries. ,ost of the H $illion people proFected
to $e added worldwide $( mid&cent"r( will $e $orn in co"ntries alread( experiencing
water shortages. Unless pop"lation growth can $e slowed 9"ickl( $( in2esting hea2il( in
female literac( and famil( planning ser2ices, there ma( not $e a h"mane sol"tion to the
emerging world water shortage.
Impacts Overpopulation Water Wars
'opulation growt( will lead to water wars* -oc(a1am1a pro,es
'ostel and Wol0* #1 < 7rofessor of Oeograph( at @regon State Uni2ersit( < *--) =8aron '.
;oolf and Sandra 5. 7ostel ?Deh(drating onEictA Septem$er
http://www.glo$alpolic(.org/sec"rit(/natres/water/*--)/)--)fpol.htmC
'hese incidents sho"ld not $e dismissed as isolated and "nrelated. ;ater stress is
spreading as pop"lations increase [see map]. %( *-)L, nearl( H $illion peopleS+- percent
of the proFected world pop"lation&are expected to li2e in co"ntries that 0nd it diDic"lt or
impossi$le to mo$ili#e eno"gh water to satisf( the food, ind"strial, and domestic needs of
their citi#ens. 'his scarcit( will translate into heightened competition for water $etween
cities and farms, $etween neigh$oring states and pro2inces, and at times $etween nations.
'he largest and most com$"sti$le im$alance $etween pop"lation and a2aila$le water
s"pplies will $e in 8sia, where crop prod"ction depends hea2il( on irrigation. 8sia toda(
has ro"ghl( R- percent of the world!s people $"t onl( HR percent of the world!s renewa$le
fresh water. hina, 3ndia, 3ran, and 7akistan are among the co"ntries where a signi0cant
share of the irrigated land is now Feopardi#ed $( gro"ndwater depletion, scarce ri2er
water, a fertilit(&sapping $"ild"p of salts in the soil, or some com$ination of these factors.
Oro"ndwater depletion alone places )- to *- percent of grain prod"ction in $oth hina
and 3ndia at risk. ;ater ta$les are falling steadil( in the Korth hina 7lain, which (ields
more than half of hina!s wheat and nearl( one third of its corn, as well as in northwest
3ndia!s 7"nFa$, another maFor $read$asket. 8s farmers lose access to irrigation water and
see their li2elihoods deteriorate, the( ma( not onl( resort to 2iolent protest $"t migrate
across $orders and to resti2e and alread( o2ercrowded cities. S"ch has $een the case in
7akistan, where falling agric"lt"ral o"tp"t has prompted a massi2e r"ral migration to
large "r$an centers, leading to renewed o"t$reaks of ethnic 2iolence. 3nternal water
stresses will also shift international political alliances and add to the $"rden of
h"manitarian crises. o"ntries commonl( adapt to water stress $( importing more of their
food, pro2ided the( ha2e the foreign exchange to do so. 3t takes a$o"t ),--- c"$ic meters
of water to grow one ton of grain. %( importing wheat and other staples, water&stressed
co"ntries can allocate more of their scarce fresh water to cities and ind"stries, which
generate far more economic 2al"e per liter than agric"lt"re does. 3srael, for example, has
done 2er( nicel( with this approach. "rrentl( water&stressed co"ntries in 8sia, 8frica, and
the ,iddle Bast acco"nt for *R percent of glo$al grain imports. 8s an additional $illion
people are added to water&stressed co"ntries o2er the next )L (ears and as more co"ntries
Foin the ranks of food importers, demand for international grain will increase. 8 good
portion of that increase ma( come from hina, 3ndia, and 7akistan&all c"rrentl( grain self&
s"Dicient, $"t "nlikel( to remain so for reasons of water and land scarcit(. 'heir
go2ernments will ine2ita$l( form stronger alliances with the nations from which the(
choose to import food. For those nations witho"t s"Dicient foreign exchange to t"rn to
imports, nota$l( those in s"$&Saharan 8frica, higher world grain prices will likel( mean
greater h"nger and more calls for h"manitarian aid. Finall(, a new ca"se of water&related
tensions has s"rfaced in F"st the last few (earsSthe transfer of water s(stem ownership
and/or management from p"$lic a"thorities to pri2ate m"ltinational corporations. Dri2ing
pri2ati#ation is a conE"ence of forces: the mo"nting costs and political lia$ilities of
pro2iding "r$an water ser2ices, increased press"re on go2ernments from the 3nternational
,onetar( F"nd =3,FC and the ;orld %ank to red"ce water s"$sidies and p"$lic&sector
de$t, and the growing power of pri2ate corporations seeking to pro0t from the sale of
water and related ser2ices. Bspeciall( where pri2ati#ation takes place in the presence of
po2ert( and ine9"alit(, which is to sa( in most of the de2eloping world, it can lead to ci2il
protest and 2iolence. Gecent e2ents in ocha$am$a, %oli2ia!s third largest cit(,
"nderscore these risks. Following the pri2ati#ation of ocha$am$a!s water s(stem, which
had $een plag"ed $( corr"ption and mismanagement, water rates sk(rocketedSres"lting
in water $ills for some residents e9"al to a 9"arter or more of their income. ,onths of ci2il
"nrest c"lminated in 8pril *---, when the 5a 7a# go2ernment sent soldiers into
ocha$am$a, where some H-,--- protesters had amassed in the central pla#a. Se2eral
da(s of 2iolence ens"ed, lea2ing one person dead and more than a h"ndred inF"red. 'he
conEict a$ated onl( when the water s(stem ret"rned to p"$lic control. ocha$am$a is an
extreme $"t not isolated case. 8cti2ists in olom$ia and So"th 8frica likewise ha2e
opposed the pri2ati#ation of water and other m"nicipal ser2ices. ,eanwhile, 3,F loan
agreements with at least half a do#en co"ntries last (ear called for some degree of water
s(stem pri2ati#ation. 'he n"m$er of "r$an dwellers worldwide is proFected to nearl(
do"$leSto L $illionS$( *-*L. Unless go2ernments and lenders strengthen m"nicipal
water agencies and steer pri2ate&sector in2ol2ement toward e9"it( as well as eDicienc(
and toward social F"stice as well as shareholder pro0t, more 2iolence like that in
ocha$am$a ma( $e forthcoming.
2NC Warming Impact
'opulation grow(t causes de0orestation
Sai3#. & ph(sician, long&time p"$lic health acti2ist in 8frica, and ad2isor to the president
of Ohana on 43J/83DS =Frederick, ;orld ;atch ?7op"lation, Famil( 7lanning, and the F"t"re of 8fricaA, Jol ).,
3ss"e L; Septem$er/@cto$er, p gH+C
Gapid pop"lation growth is also ha2ing a serio"s eDect on the nat"ral en2ironment in
8frica. Some L-- million hectares of land ha2e $een aDected $( soil degradation d"ring
the last half cent"r(, incl"ding as m"ch as RL percent of agric"lt"ral land. 'his has $een a
maFor factor in constraining food prod"ction in 8frica to onl( a * percent ann"al increase,
well $elow the rate of pop"lation increase. 'he n"m$er of "nderno"rished people in 8frica has more than do"$led from )@@
million in the late )/R-s to ro"ghl( *H- million toda(; perhaps another )L- million are s"$Fect to ac"te food de0cits, and possi$l( as man( as L- million are act"all(
star2ing. 7roFections indicate that the region will $e a$le to feed onl( +- per cent of its pop"lation $( *-*L. 8ltho"gh most 8fricans depend on the land for their
li2elihood, the land!s capacit( to prod"ce is e$$ing awa( "nder the press"re of growing
n"m$ers of people who do not ha2e the wherewithal to p"t $ack into the land what the(
are forced to take from it. 'rees are $eing c"t down H- times as fast as the( are $eing
replaced, and some :- million 8fricans ha2e serio"s diDic"lt( 0nding f"elwood.
Deforestation and o2ergra#ing leads to declines in soil fertilit(. 3n co"ntries like Bthiopia,
topsoil losses of as m"ch as */- tons per hectare ha2e $een reported.
@orests are glo1al car1on sin&s t(e+ pre,ent runawa+ glo1al warming
Gardner3utlaw and "ngelman* 1::: anal(sts at 7op"lation 8ction 3nternational ='om
and Go$ert, Forest F"t"res: 7op"lation, ons"mption, and ;ood
http://www.pop"lationaction.org/7"$lications/Geports/ForestPF"t"res/ForestPF"t"resPtextP
onl(P2ersion.pdfC
Forests are among the worldIs great reser2oirs of car$on. Since the earthIs creation, an
essentiall( 0xed amo"nt of car$on has Eowed contin"o"sl( $etween the earthIs
atmosphere, oceans, and cr"st. 'his glo$al car$on c(cle is one of the planetIs maFor $io&
geochemical processes and helps reg&"late the atmospheric concentration of car$on
dioxide =@*C, the most important greenho"se gas dri2ing h"man&ind"ced climate change. @n the earthIs s"rface, plants, soils, and microorganisms are
nat"ral sinks, or storage reser2oirs, for car$on. 8pproximatel( :H- $illion metric tons of car$on are stored in the worldIs forests, a$o"t the same amo"nt of car$on
as the atmosphere holds in the form of car$on dioxide. Go"ghl( +- percent of this car$onSHH- $illion tonsSis contained in trees, plants and other forest 2egetation,
with the remainder contained in forest soils and roots.*- 4olding so m"ch car$on, forests can either $e a net so"rce or a net sink for the car$on in atmospheric
@*. 'oda(, the( mostl( act as a so"rce. 'ropical deforestation and forest degradation acco"nt for ro"ghl(
one& fo"rth of all the @* emissions that res"lt from h"man acti2it(.*)8t the same time,
forests and soils in the Korthern 4emisphere appear, on $al&ance, to $e a$sor$ing car$on,
$"t there is no wa( to know if or how long this will contin"e.** F"t"re accelera&tion in
the loss of tropical forests co"ld lead to signi0cant additional emissions of @*, f"rther
hampering international eDorts to com$at glo$al warming. 7rograms that slow and
e2ent"all( re2erse the glo$al loss of forests co"ld make a maFor contri$"tion towards
$alancing the glo$al car$on $"dget. 8 )//R report commissioned $( the UK
3ntergo2ernmental 7anel on li&mate hange concl"ded that the worldIs forests co"ld
store "p to :. $illion tons of car$on $etween )//L and *-L-, an amo"nt representing
more than )* percent of c"m"lati2e fossil f"el emissions o2er the same period. 'his
additional car$on storage, howe2er, wo"ld need to come from a re2ersal of tropical
deforestation,*H a feat that will depend 2er( m"ch on f"t"re pop"lation trends not onl( in
the tropics $"t elsewhere.
2NC Warming Impact
Eunawa+ warming ris&s e)tinction
%rown* #/ professor of ph(siolog( at ;est Jirginia Uni2ersit( =7a"l, Kotes from a D(ing
7lanet, p. x2iC
'his $ook is ine2ita$l( a$o"t s"staina$ilit(: "sing reso"rces onl( as fast as the( can $e
replenished. 'he concept is as simple as $alancing a check$ook. %( li2ing "ns"staina$l(,
o2er"sing o"r credit, weI2e ca"sed glo$al warming and ha$itat destr"ction for the li2ing
creat"res that pro2ide o"r life s"pport in the form of drinka$le water, edi$le food,
$reatha$le air, and e2en ha$ita$le land. @"r planet is going thro"gh the worst mass
extinction since the death of the dinosa"rs, possi$l( the worst in the planetIs histor(. 'o
make matters worse, weI2e crossed the threshold of a positi2e feed$ack loop in which
glo$al warming is accelerating. 3t ma( $e too late to pre2ent a r"nawa( process that onl+
micro1es will sur,i,e.8 ke( component of o"r "ns"staina$le lifest(le is o2erpop"lation. 3f it werenIt for wars, famine, dro"ght, and pestilence,
we wo"ld ha2e "sed "p o"r planetIs reso"rces long ago. 'here are now more than six $illion people on this planet. 3n the worst case, that n"m$er co"ld increase to
twel2e $illion $( the middle of this cent"r(. 3n some "nderde2eloped areas of the world pop"lations are growing completel( o"t of control and, as far as man( are
concerned, the last da(s of h"manit( are "pon them right now. 'he( are har$ingers of the de2eloped worldIs fate if we donIt do eno"gh, soon eno"gh.
3Im afraid o"r societ( is 2er( sick. 3tIs s"ch a clichg, $"t itIs tr"e for reasons (o" ma( not s"spect. @"r entire world2iews ha2e $ecome so distorted itIs hard for "s to
see the desolation weI2e created. 3nstead, we meas"re o"r sec"rit( in terms of large families, material wealth, and false p"rposes. ;e ha2e a chance
for s"r2i2al, if we respond glo$all( and immediatel( $( red"cing the si#e of o"r pop"lation,
switching to clean energ( so"rces, and protecting o"r remaining $iodi2ersit(. 8s 3 write
this, the worldIs leaders and the people of man( nations are awakening to the peril and
$eginning to take action. %"t so far the response is far too little, far too late, especiall( in
the United States.
Impacts Overpopulation Environment
",er+ en,ironmental stressor indicates t(at t(e "art( is in o,ers(oot and collapse
mode
%rown #/ president of the Barth 7olic( 3nstit"te [5ester G, 7lan % *.- Gesc"sing a 7lanet
Under Stress and a i2ili#ation Under 'ro"$le, http://www.earth&
polic(.org/%ooks/7%*/p$*ch).pdf]
'he $ottom line is that the -orl9 is in -hat e,ologists ,all an Oo)ershootAan9A,olla&seP mo9e. Deman9 has e%,ee9e9
the sustaina4le 6iel9 o0 natural s6stems at the local le2el co"ntless times in the past. Kow, for the 0rst
time, it is doing so at the glo$al le2el. Corests are shrin2ing for the world as a whole. Cisher6
,olla&ses are -i9es&rea9. 7rasslan9s are 9eteriorating on e2er( continent. :ater ta4les are 0alling in man(
co"ntries. ar$on dioxide VC(+W emissions e%,ee9 C(+ 0i%ation e2er(where. 3n *--*, a team of scientists led $( ,athis
;ackernagel, who now heads the Olo$al Footprint Ketwork, concl"ded that h"manit(Is collecti2e demands 0rst s"rpassed the earthIs regenerati2e capacit( aro"nd
)/:-. 'heir st"d(, p"$lished $( the U.S. Kational 8cadem( of Sciences, estimated that glo$al demands in )/// exceeded that capacit( $( *- percent. 'he gap,
growing $( ) percent or so a (ear, is now m"ch wider. :e are meeting ,urrent 9eman9s 46 ,onsuming the earth;s natural assetsG setting the
stage 0or 9e,line an9 ,olla&se.* 3n a rather ingenio"s approach to calc"lating the h"man ph(sical presence on the planet, 7a"l ,acread(, the fo"nder and
hairman of 8eroJironment and designer of the 0rst solar&powered aircraft, has calc"lated the weight of all 2erte$rates on the land and in the air. 4e notes that when
agric"lt"re $egan, h"mans, their li2estock, and pets together acco"nted for less than -.) percent of the total. 'oda(, he estimates, this gro"p acco"nts for /: percent
of the earthIs total 2erte$rate $iomass, lea2ing onl( * percent for the wild portion, the latter incl"ding all the deer, wilde$eests, elephants, great cats, $irds, small
mammals, and so forth.H Bcologists are intimatel( familiar with the o2ershoot&andcollapse phenomenon. @ne of their fa2orite examples $egan in )/++, -hen the
Coast 7uar9 intro9u,e9 + rein9eer on remote St. ,atthew Islan9 in the %ering Sea to ser2e as the
$ack"p food so"rce for the )/ men operating a station there. 8fter ;orld ;ar 33 ended a
(ear later, the $ase was closed and the men left the island. :hen U.S. Fish and ;ildlife
Ser2ice $iologist Da)i9 @line )isite9 St. ,atthew in )/L., he 9is,o)ere9 a thri)ing &o&ulation o0 1G15*
rein9eer feeding on the fo"r&inch&thick mat of lichen that co2ered the HH*&s9"are&kilometer
=)*:&s9"are&mileC island. In the a4sen,e o0 an6 &re9atorsG the &o&ulation -as e%&lo9ing. ?6 161G it ha9 rea,he9
6G***. 8e returne9 to St. Matthe- in )/RR an9 9is,o)ere9 an islan9 stre-n -ith rein9eer s2eletons and not m"ch
lichen. @nl( +* of the reindeer s"r2i2ed: +) females and ) not entirel( health( male. 'here
were no fawns. %( )/:- or so, the remaining reindeer had died oD.+ /i2e the 9eer on St.
,atthew 3sland, -e too are o)er,onsuming our natural resour,es. ()ershoot lea9s sometimes to 9e,line an9 sometimes
to a ,om&lete ,olla&se. 3t is not alwa(s clear which it will $e. 3n the former, a remnant of the pop"lation or economic acti2it( s"r2i2es in a reso"rce&depleted
en2ironment. For example, as the en2ironmental reso"rce $ase of Baster 3sland in the So"th 7aci0c deteriorated, its pop"lation declined from a peak of *-,--- se2eral
cent"ries ago to toda(Is pop"lation of fewer than +,---. 3n contrast, the L--&(ear&old Korse settlement in Oreenland collapsed d"ring the )+--s, disappearing entirel(
in the face of en2ironmental ad2ersit(.L 8s of *--L, some +* co"ntries ha2e pop"lations that are sta$le or declining slightl( in si#e as a res"lt of falling $irth rates. %"t
now for the 0rst time e2er, demographers are proFecting pop"lation declines in some co"ntries $eca"se of rising death rates, among them %otswana, 5esotho,
Kami$ia, and Swa#iland. 3n the a$sence of an accelerated shift to smaller families, this list of co"ntries is likel( to grow m"ch longer in the (ears immediatel( ahead.R
the years immediately ahead.J 'he most recent mid&le2el U.K. demographic proFections show world pop"lation increasing from R.) $illion in *--- to /.) $illion in
*-L-. %"t s"ch an increase seems highl( "nlikel(, considering the deterioration in life&s"pport s(stems now "nder wa( in m"ch of the world. ;ill we not reach /.)
$illion $eca"se we 9"ickl( eradicate glo$al po2ert( and lower $irth ratesQ @r $eca"se we fail to do so and death rates $egin to rise, as the( are alread( doing in man(
8frican co"ntriesQ ;e th"s face two "rgent maFor challenges: restr"ct"ring the glo$al econom( and sta$ili#ing world pop"lation.. $)en as the e,onom6;s
en)ironmental su&&ort s6stems are 9eterioratingG the -orl9 is &um&ing oil -ith re,2less a4an9on . 5eading geologists
now think oil prod"ction ma( soon peak and t"rn downward. !his ,ollision 4et-een the e)erAgro-ing
9eman9 0or oil an9 the earth;s 0inite resour,es is 4ut the latest in a long series o0 ,ollisions. 8ltho"gh no one knows exactl( when oil
prod"ction will peak, s"ppl( is alread( lagging $ehind demand, dri2ing prices "pward.: 3n this new world, the price of oil $egins to set the price of food, not so m"ch
$eca"se of rising f"el costs for farmers and food processors $"t more $eca"se almost e2er(thing we eat can $e con2erted into f"el for cars. 3n this new world of high
oil prices, s"permarkets and ser2ice stations will compete in commodit( markets for $asic food commodities s"ch as wheat, corn, so($eans, and s"garcane. ;heat
going into the market can $e con2erted into $read for s"permarkets or ethanol for ser2ice stations. So($ean oil can go onto s"permarket shel2es or it can go to
ser2ice stations to $e "sed as diesel f"el. 3n eDect, owners of the worldIs :-- million cars will $e competing for food reso"rces with the ).* $illion people li2ing on less
than [) a da(./ Faced with a seemingl( insatia$le demand for a"tomoti2e f"el, farmers will want to clear more and more of the remaining tropical forests to prod"ce
s"garcane, oil palms, and other high(ielding f"el crops. 8lread(, $illions of dollars of pri2ate capital are mo2ing into this eDort. 3n eDect, t he rising &ri,e o0 oil
is generating a massi)e ne- threat to the earth;s 4iologi,al 9i)ersit6. As the 9eman9 0or 0arm ,ommo9ities ,lim4sG it is shi0ting
the 0o,us o0 international tra9e ,on,erns 0rom the tra9itional goal o0 assure9 a,,ess to mar2ets to one o0 assure9 a,,ess to
su&&lie s. o"ntries hea2il( dependent on imported grain for food are $eginning to worr(
that $"(ers for f"el distilleries ma( o"t$id them for s"pplies. As oil se,urit6 9eterioratesG soG tooG -ill
0oo9 se,urit6. As the role o0 oil re,e9esG the &ro,ess o0 glo4aliLation -ill 4e re)erse9 in 0un9amental -a6s. 8s the world t"rned to oil
d"ring the last cent"r(, the energ( econom( $ecame increasingl( glo$ali#ed, with the world depending hea2il( on a handf"l of co"ntries in the ,iddle Bast for energ(
s"pplies. Kow as the world t"rns to wind, solar cells, and geothermal energ( in this cent"r(, we are witnessing the locali#ation of the world energ( econom(. 'he
glo$ali#ation of the world food econom( will also $e re2ersed, as the higher price of oil raises the cost of transporting food internationall(. 3n response, food
prod"ction and cons"mption will $ecome m"ch more locali#ed, leading to diets $ased more on locall( prod"ced food and seasonal a2aila$ilit(. !he -orl9 is
0a,ing the emergen,e o0 a geo&oliti,s o0 s,ar,it6G which is alread( highl( 2isi$le in the eDorts $( hina,
3ndia, and other de2eloping co"ntries to ens"re their access to oil s"pplies. 3n the f"t"re,
the iss"e will $e who gets access to not onl( ,iddle Bastern oil $"t also %ra#ilian ethanol
and Korth 8merican grain. 7 ressures on lan9 an9 -ater resour,esG alrea96 e%,essi)e in most o0 the -orl9G -ill
intensi06 0urther as the 9eman9 0or 4io0uels ,lim4s. !his geo&oliti,s o0 s,ar,it6 is an earl6 mani0estation o0 ,i)iliLation in an
o)ershootAan9A,olla&se mo9e, m"ch like the one that emerged among the ,a(an cities competing
for food in that ci2ili#ationIs waning (ears.)- Mo" do not need to $e an ecologist to see that
if recent en2ironmental trends contin"e, the glo4al e,onom6 e)entuall6 -ill ,ome ,rashing 9o-n. It is not
2no-le9ge that -e la,2. 8t iss"e is whether national go2ernments can sta$ili#e pop"lation and
restr"ct"re the econom( $efore time r"ns o"t. 5ooking at what is happening in hina
helps "s to see the "rgenc( of acting 9"ickl(.
Impacts Overpopulation Environment
-ontinued Growt( will lead to en,ironmental collapse
%rown #4 Barth 7olic( 3nstit"te [5ester G. @"tgrowing the Barth: 'he Food Sec"rit(
hallenge in an 8ge of Falling ;ater 'a$les and Gising 'emperat"res, http://www.earth&
polic(.org/%ooks/@"t/ch)Pearthlimits.pdf]
4rowth: !he /nvironmental "allout !he -orl9 e,onom6, as now str"ct"red, is ma2ing e%,essi)e 9eman9s
on the earth. B2idence of this can $e seen in ,olla&sing 0isheriesG shrin2ing 0orestsG e%&an9ing 9esertsG rising C(+
le)elsG ero9ing soilsG rising tem&eraturesG 0alling -ater ta4lesG melting gla,iersG 9eteriorating grasslan9sG rising seasG ri)ers that
are running 9r6G an9 9isa&&earing s&e,ies. Kearl( all these en)ironmentall6 9estru,ti)e tren9s a9)ersel6 a00e,t the -orl9
0oo9 &ros&e,t. For example, e2en a modest rise of ) degree Fahrenheit in temperat"re in
mo"ntaino"s regions can s"$stantiall( increase rainfall and decrease snowfall. 'he res"lt
is more Eooding d"ring the rain( season and less snowmelt to feed ri2ers d"ring the dr(
season, when farmers need irrigation water.)L @r consider the collapse of 0sheries and the
associated le2eling oD of the oceanic 0sh catch. D"ring the last half&cent"r( the 02efold
growth in the world 0sh catch that satis0ed m"ch of the growing demand for animal
protein p"shed oceanic 0sheries to their limits and $e(ond. Kow, in this new cent"r(, -e
,annot e%&e,t an6 gro-th at all in the catch. All 0uture gro-th in animal &rotein su&&lies ,an onl6 ,ome 0rom the lan9G
&utting e)en more &ressure on the earth;s lan9 an9 -ater resour,es.)R Farmers ha2e long had to cope with the
c"m"lati2e eDects of soil erosion on land prod"cti2it(, the loss of cropland to nonfarm
"ses, and the encroachment of deserts on cropland. Kow the( are also $eing $attered $(
higher temperat"res and crop&scorching heat wa2es. 5ikewise, 0armers -ho on,e ha9 assure9
su&&lies o0 irrigation -ater are no- 0or,e9 to a4an9on irrigation as aqui0ers are 9e&lete9 an9 -ells go 9r6. ollecti2el(
this arra( of en2ironmental trends is making it e2en more diDic"lt for farmers to feed
ade9"atel( the .- million people added to o"r ranks each (ear.). Until recentl(, the
economic eDects of en2ironmental trends, s"ch as o2er0shing, o2erp"mping, and
o2erplowing, were largel( local. 8mong the man( examples are the collapse of the cod
0sher( oD Kewfo"ndland from o2er0shing that cost anada +-,--- Fo$s, the hal2ing of
Sa"di 8ra$iaIs wheat har2est as a res"lt of a9"ifer depletion, and the shrinking grain
har2est of 6a#akhstan as wind erosion claimed half of its cropland. Kow, i0 -orl9 0oo9 su&&lies
tightenG -e ma6 see the 0irst glo4al e,onomi, e00e,t o0 en)ironmentall6 9estru,ti)e tren9s. <ising 0oo9 &ri,es ,oul9 4e the 0irst
economic in9i,ator to signal serious trou4le in the 9eteriorating relationshi& 4et-een the glo4al e,onom6 an9 the earth;s
e,os6stem. 'he short&li2ed *-&percent rise in world grain prices in earl( *--+ ma( t"rn o"t to
$e a warning tremor $efore the 9"ake.)/
Impacts Overpopulation Environment
,erpopulation destro+s 1iodi,ersit+ pollution* o,er (ar,esting* and (a1itat
destruction
tten 7rofessor of Bmergenc( ,edicine and 7ediatrics < 2##1 =Bdward, ?'he BDect of
4"man 7op"lation on %iodi2ersit(,A 4"man 7op"lation 3mpacts on %iodi2ersit(,
http://www.ecolog(.org/$iod/pop"lation/h"manPpop).htmlC
,ost of the scienti0c e2idence collected since ,alth"s has s"pported his theor( that e2en
the most slow growing species wo"ld co2er the earth in a short time if its pop"lation
growth were "nrestrained. ;ar, famine and disease ha2e $een minor checks on the growth
of h"man pop"lation and indeed are "s"all( indications of areas of o2erpop"lation. ,ost of
the c"rrent 1pro$lems1 on the earth are ca"sed $( densit(&dependent factors related to
h"man pop"lation. ;hen the pop"lation of an area exceeds the carr(ing capacit( of the
land, something has to gi2e. Bither one gro"p kills oD another =%osnia, ,iddle Bast,
UgandaC, disease kills oD some of the pop"lation =83DS, cholera, malariaC or there is
ins"Dicient food and some of the pop"lation star2es =entral 8frica, 8fghanistanC. BrhlichIs
theor( is that either h"mans m"st 2ol"ntar( control their n"m$ers or nat"re will de0nitel(
control them =thro"gh mechanisms that are 2er( "npleasant for h"mansC.
'he exponential growth of the h"man pop"lation, making h"mans the dominant species on
the planet, is ha2ing a gra2e impact on $iodi2ersit(. 'his destr"ction of species $( h"mans
will e2ent"all( lead to a destr"ction of the h"man species thro"gh nat"ral selection. ;hile
h"man $eings ha2e had an eDect for the last L-,--- (ears, it has onl( $een since the
ind"strial re2ol"tion that the impact has $een glo$al rather than regional. 'his glo$al
impact is taking place thro"gh 02e primar( processes: o2er har2esting, alien species
introd"ction, poll"tion, ha$itat fragmentation, and o"tright ha$it destr"ction.
Ha1itat destruction is t(e most serious t(reat to sur,i,al and 1iodi,ersit+
tten 7rofessor of Bmergenc( ,edicine and 7ediatrics < 2##1 =Bdward, ?'he BDect of
4"man 7op"lation on %iodi2ersit(,A 4"man 7op"lation 3mpacts on %iodi2ersit(,
http://www.ecolog(.org/$iod/pop"lation/h"manPpop).htmlC
4a$itat fragmentation is another maFor threat to $iodi2ersit(. 4"mans ha2e recogni#ed
that nati2e species can help s"pport h"man endea2ors, s"ch as agric"lt"re and medical
research, and ha2e attempted to preser2e small 1islands1 of nati2e ha$itat within oceans of
h"man ha$itat. ;hile no$le in intent, this isolation of species has in man( cases led to
their demise. Us"all( the 1island1 is too small to s"stain the species within it and man(
species, "na$le to migrate or renew their fragmented gene pool, $ecome extinct. For
example, some $ird species in the tropics cannot 0nd ade9"ate food or nesting materials
in the small 1preser2es1 and are "na$le to lea2e $eca"se of s"rro"nding agric"lt"ral land.
Similarl(, a n"m$er of migrator( song$irds, s"ch as the 'ownsend!s ;ar$ler, ha2e $een
p"shed to the $rink of extinction $eca"se their traditional migrator( ro"tes are so altered
$( h"man acti2it( that the( can no longer pass safel( from one 1island1 of forest to the
next.
'he most destr"cti2e of all h"man acti2ities, with regard to $iodi2ersit( loss, is o"tright
ha$itat destr"ction, s"ch as deforestation, wetland drainage, and the con2ersion of di2erse
grassland prairies to endless seas of monocropping agric"lt"re. 'ho"sand of plant species
are destro(ed for agric"lt"re, 0rewood and $"ilding materials. 4a$itat destr"ction aDects
all species fo"nd within that ecos(stem. ;hile destr"ction of a forest ma( onl( take
months, regeneration, e2en if it were possi$le, might take tho"sands of (ears. 'he
inha$itants of Baster 3sland had a ci2ili#ation ad2anced eno"gh to erect monoliths, $"t in
less than one h"ndred (ears had depleted the trees on the island "ntil the( were "na$le to
$"ild ho"se or canoes, nor catch 0sh for food, and ended $( m"rdering each other for the
few reso"rces a2aila$le.
Impacts Overpopulation Ecocide
'opulation growt( will cause de0orestation* end 1iodi,ersit+* and destro+ our
1iosp(ere.
-aldwell* #3& *--H =>oseph Oeorge aldwell, 7hD, ?'he Bnd of the ;orld, and the Kew
;orld @rder: "rrent 'rends and ;hat ;ill 4appen if 'he( ontin"eA
http://www.fo"ndation.$w/'heBnd@f'he;orld.htmC
;orld h"man pop"lation is exploding. 3t passed the six $illion mark in )///, and it
increases $( a$o"t :- million e2er( (ear. 3n man( regions of the world, the h"man
pop"lation is increasing at horri0c rates, and it will contin"e to do so $eca"se $irth rates
are 2er( high < m"ch higher than the ?replacementA le2el of F"st o2er two children per
woman in her lifetime. %irth rates are dropping in man( regions, $"t 2er( slowl(, and
rarel( to replacement le2els. "rrent estimates $( the United Kations and the ;orld %ank
are that the world pop"lation will contin"e to increase for decades, e2en if h"man $irth
rates were to drop rapidl( to replacement le2els e2er(where. Under the most optimistic
ass"mptions a$o"t fertilit( declines, the h"man pop"lation will increase to perhaps nine
$illion people. 3f $irth rates do not drop to replacement le2el, the pop"lation will contin"e
to soar.
4istor( oDers no ca"se for optimism that the h"man pop"lation explosion will spare an(
portion of the world. Underde2eloped nations contin"e to grow in pop"lation "ntil the(
simpl( r"n o"t of nat"ral reso"rces and ca"se total destr"ction of their forests and
wildlife. ,ost de2eloped ind"strial nations contin"e to grow in pop"lation at a$o"t one&
half of one percent per (ear. 'he( stri2e for maxim"m and s"stained economic growth,
regardless of conse9"ences to the local en2ironment or the planetIs ecological well&$eing.
'he worldIs forests are where man( plant and animal species s"r2i2e, and it is the
destr"ction of forests that is ca"sing m"ch of the ongoing species extinction. 8$o"t /+
percent of the forest that existed F"st sixt( (ears ago has $een destro(ed. 3n the past *-
(ears, forests ha2e disappeared in *L co"ntries. 8t these rates, most of BarthIs forest
co2er will soon $e gone. 8s h"man pop"lation contin"es to increase, the demand for wood
prod"cts and land will increase, so that the destr"ction of the shrinking forests will
accelerate.
2ganda pro,es t(at population growt( means increase in po,ert+ and
en,ironmental destruction
!ugasi* #9 < 8gric"lt"ral Bconomist < *--. =Sam"el ,agasi, Bast 8frican %"siness ;eek
?Uganda: 4ow 7op"lation Orowth is 'hreatening Bn2ironmentA ,a( *--.
http://allafrica.com/stories/*--.-L-:-*-H.htmlC
Uganda!s pop"lation growth rate, not ind"strialists, poses the greater threat to the
en2ironment. 'he Ugandan pop"lation c"rrentl( stands at aro"nd *. million. ;ith an
a2erage Ugandan woman prod"cing se2en children and an ann"al growth rate of o2er H N,
the pop"lation will almost do"$le $( *-*L. 'his trend makes Uganda one of the fastest
growing co"ntries in the world in terms of pop"lation. Statistics show that the pop"lation
densit( of Uganda is aro"nd )-L per s9"are 6m compared to LH for 6en(a, H/ for
'an#ania, */ for Wim$a$we, )H Wam$ia and *+ for ,o#am$i9"e. ;hat sho"ld we make of
this trendQ ,( thinking is that the c"rrent pop"lation trends constit"te the $iggest threat
to Uganda!s s"stained economic growth. Statistics indicate that o2er :- percent of
Ugandan!s deri2e their li2elihoods directl( from land thro"gh farming and indirectl(
thro"gh agro&$ased $"sinesses. 'his is the reason wh( the Oo2ernment of Uganda has
identi0ed agric"lt"re as the stepping stone for red"cing po2ert( as spelt o"t in 7o2ert(
Bradication 8ction 7lan =7B87C. ;hereas the 7B87 pro2ides a good framework for 0ghting po2ert(, the c"rrent pop"lation
growth rate represents a maFor threat to the a2aila$ilit( of ara$le land, the ke( reso"rce at the heart of the campaign against po2ert(.
8ccording to the State of the Bn2ironment Geport of *---, the per capita ara$le land decreased from L.* hectares in )/H) to -.: hectares in
*--- and is expected to fall to -.R hectares $( *-)L. 'his means that landlessness is on the increase which is res"lting into the massi2e
encroachment on forests we are seeing toda(. 3f the sit"ation is not controlled, the f"t"re threat to forests like ,a$ira will not $e the
ind"strialists like ,ehta, $"t rather a possi$le "prising of the desperate landless and Fo$less Ugandans with nothing else to s"r2i2e on $"t
land. ;hereas we ma( win the $attle against ,ehta, it wo"ld $e diDic"lt to control s"ch encroachers like was the case in ,a("ge District. ;e
ha2e seen similar forcef"l encroachment of Kational 7arks like _"een Bli#a$eth $( landless li2estock keepers. 'he land wrangles
in 6i$aale District also signal the dire conse9"ences of increasing press"re on land. 'he
implication of this trend is that we are not onl( loosing the $attle against po2ert( d"e to
"ncontrolled pop"lation growth, $"t we are also degrading the en2ironment. 3n other
words, it will $e 2er( diDic"lt to protect the en2ironment in Uganda as the pop"lation
grows with no Fo$s $eing created as an alternati2e so"rce of li2elihood. ;hat is the
sol"tion thenQ ,( 2iew is that the c"rrent go2ernment strateg( of allocating land for
ind"strial de2elopment is the wa( forward as long as it done "nder clear and
en2ironmentall( sensiti2e policies.
Impacts Overpopulation Ecocide
'opulation growt( will cause en,ironmental destruction
Arora* #9 < ;riter 3nter at the ornell hronicle < *--. =6anika 8rora, ?U professor sa(s
expanding pop"lation $"t 0nite reso"rces are dri2ing world!s energ( and climate crisisA
8pril, ornell Kews,
http://www.news.cornell.ed"/stories/8pril-./8llmendinger.co2er.68.htmlC
Bxponential pop"lation growth com$ined with 0nite reso"rces is the f"ndamental so"rce
of the planet!s energ( and climate pro$lems, said Gichard 8llmendinger, ornell professor
of earth and atmospheric sciences, in a talk, 1Bnerg( and Olo$al ;arming: Flip Sides of
the Same risis,1 at %aker 5a$orator( ,arch *:.
Sol"tions m"st sim"ltaneo"sl( address climate and energ( crises and incl"de energ(
conser2ation and eDicienc(, car$on dioxide capt"re and se9"estration, and new car$on&
free energ( technologies, he said. 1;e m"st "ltimatel( also $ring pop"lation growth "nder
control,1 he added.
4e warned that the planet will ha2e /.+ $illion people $( *-L-, "p from more than R.L
$illion toda( && altho"gh if c"rrent fertilit( rates contin"e at a constant rate, that *-L-
0g"re co"ld $e as high as )* $illion. 3n the same time span, energ( demands will do"$le,
and prod"ction of oil and nat"ral gas will pro$a$l( peak. Kontraditional fossil f"els that
will replace oil and gas && coal reser2es, tar sands, oil shale and gas h(drates && ha2e a far
higher en2ironmental cost, raising the stakes e2en higher.
'opulation growt( means ecological collapse3 t(e ne)t decade is &e+
%rown* #/ < 7rofessor of 7h(siolog( at ;est Jirginia Uni2ersit( < *--R =7a"l %rown 7hD
?Kotes from a D(ing 7lanet *--+&*--R: @ne ScientistIs Search for Sol"tionsA p. HC
'he threats we face stem from o2erpop"lation and en2ironmental degradation. 'he
res"lting climate change and mass extinctions are leading to ecological collapse, in which
the once&ro$"st tapestr( of interrelationships among li2ing creat"res, climate, and o"r
ph(sical en2ironment has $een weakened and is starting to "nra2el. linical indicators of
o"r planet!s serio"s illness are ill"strated in the graph. 3!2e adF"sted the 2ertical scales for
pop"lation, car$on dioxide =@,C, methane, temperat"re, and extinction of species per (ear
so the( all ha2e a common minim"m and maxim"m.
'opulation Growt( leads to en,ironmental damage3 t(e eBect is linear
%rown* #/ < 7rofessor of 7h(siolog( at ;est Jirginia Uni2ersit( < *--R =7a"l %rown 7hD
?Kotes from a D(ing 7lanet *--+&*--R: @ne ScientistIs Search for Sol"tionsA p. )+)C
'he reall( $ad news is that the two (o"nger pop"lation increase in si#e for a$o"t H- (ears
$eca"se maFor portions of their pop"lations are (o"nger than the child&$earing age of *L
at the time the( all shift to the one&child r"le. 'his is disastro"s $eca"se the more people
there are d"ring this period, the more damage the( do to their en2ironment, and the fewer
reso"rces will $e left for the s"r2i2ors, if an(, one or two cent"ries from now. For e2er(
person, for e2er( (ear that a pop"lation remains "ns"staina$le, the( inEict more damage.
Impacts Overpopulation Ecocide
4##3.## million to die 0rom star,ation i0 population growt( trends continue*
especiall+ in su13Sa(ara A0rican
To1ias* :$ < ecologist < )//: =,ichael 'o$ias, ?;orld ;ar 333: 7op"lation and %iosphere at
the Bnd of the ,illenni"mA, p *H*C
'he trends ha2e long declared themsel2es. 8t present, for example, while the world
pop"lation is growing $( ).: percent per (ear, net grain o"tp"t is growing at less than )
percent per (ear. %( the end of this cent"r(, the amo"nt of ara$le land per person on the
planet will $e less than half of what it was in )/L). 8ccording to one model, $eca"se of the
c"m"lati2e en2ironmental impacts of o2erpop"lation, glo$al grain har2ests will pl"mmet
$( as m"ch as )& percent e2er( fort( months, on a2erage, in the coming decades, and
$etween 0ft( and fo"r h"ndred million additional people will die from star2ation. :
Kor has this net food de0cit $een molli0ed $( the nearl( eight $illion tons of additional
arti0cial fertili#er speeded into the atmosphere each (ear in the form of car$on dioxide
emissions, at least two&third of which are the explicit res"lt of o2erpop"lation =i.e., more
a"tomo$iles and electri0cationC. / ;hile f"t"re fossil f"el generation in the de2eloped
co"ntries ma( $e modi0ed $( gains in eDicientl( and the implementation of $est a2aila$le
technologies, in the de2eloping world per capita @R emissions are proFected to do"$le in
the coming generation. For go2ernments in s"$&Sahara 8frica, where agric"lt"ral
prod"ction has declined $( more than * percent ann"all( d"ring the past twent(&fo"r
(ears, condemning at least thirt( million people to star2ation and chronic maln"trition,
and H*- million others, or RL percent of the total s"$&Saharan pop"lation to ?a$sol"te
po2ert(,A s"ch indicators are $ewildering.A
Star,ation o0 t(e poor ine,ita1le wit( growt( population
Segel&en* :/ < )//R =Goger Segelken, ?,assi2e star2ation, disease will $e ine2ita$le
res"lts ofA http://www.news.cornell.ed"/releases/Fe$/R/aaaspimentel.hrs.htmlC
Food exports from the few co"ntries that now ha2e reso"rces to prod"ce s"rpl"ses will
cease when e2er( morsel is needed to feed their growing pop"lations, the ecologists
predicted. 'hat will ca"se economic discomfort for the United States, which co"nts on
food exports to help its $alance of pa(ments. %"t the real pain will wrack nations that can!t
grow eno"gh, 7imentel said. 1;hen glo$al $iological and ph(sical limits to domestic food
prod"ction are reached, food importation will no longer $e a 2ia$le option for an( co"ntr(,1
he said. 18t that point, food importation for the rich can onl( $e s"stained $( star2ation of
the powerless poor.1
Impacts Overpopulation Ecocide
'opulation growt( causes ecocide
Segel&en* #. < *--+ =Goger Segelken ?Olo$al ,aln"trition and 4"man ,iser( ;ill $e
`"nimagina$leI pro$lem $( (ear *-L+, cornell ecologist predictsA Fe$r"ar(, ornell Kews
http://www.news.cornell.ed"/releases/Fe$-+/888S.pimentel.hrs.html C
SB8''5B && 3f toda(!s glo$al statistics of more than H $illion malno"rished people are
worrisome, tr( proFecting L- (ears into the f"t"re, when Barth!s pop"lation co"ld exceed
)* $illion and there co"ld $e e2en less water and land, per capita, to grow food. 'he
c"rrent le2el of maln"trition among nearl( half the world!s pop"lation of R.H $illion is
"nprecedented in h"man histor(, sa(s agric"lt"ral ecologist Da2id 7imentel of ornell
Uni2ersit(, 3thaca, K.M. 1B2er( trend && from decreasing per&capita a2aila$ilit( of food and
cropland to pop"lation growth && shows the predicament $ecoming e2en more dire,1
7imentel sa(s. 13n the next L- (ears, the degree of maln"trition, res"ltant disease and
h"man miser( is "nimagina$le. %"t we ha2e to tr( to consider the f"t"re while there is still
time to make meaningf"l changes, to re2erse these trends and ens"re a s"staina$le food
s"ppl(.1 7imentel!s 2iews were presented $( his colleag"e, 7a"l Geitan of the Uni2ersit( at
%"Dalo, toda( =Fe$. )HC at the ann"al meeting of the 8merican 8ssociation for the
8d2ancement of Science =888SC in Seattle. 'he title of the talk was 1'he 3mportance of
Soil in S"staining i2ili#ation.1 3n the prepared text, 7imentel said he saw se2eral
tro"$ling trends: o 4ar2ests of cereal grains, the mainsta( of h"man diets and :- percent
of the world food s"ppl(, ha2e increased slightl( since )/:L $"t not nearl( fast eno"gh to
keep pace with increases in pop"lation. o Gising maln"trition increases h"man
s"scepti$ilit( to other diseases, s"ch as malaria, diarrhea and 83DS. o 'he prediction of a
)* $illion glo$al pop"lation $( *-L+ is $ased on the c"rrent rate of growth with each
co"ple prod"cing an a2erage of *./ children. B2en if nations! polic( changes red"ce the
$irth rate to an a2erage of * children per co"ple, the )* $illion mark wo"ld $e reached in
.- (ears. o %eca"se more than //.: percent of h"man food comes from the land, do"$ling
the planet!s pop"lation will f"rther stress reso"rces for fresh water, renewa$le and fossil
energ(, fertili#ers and pesticides.
o For the most 0nite reso"rce of all, land, each (ear more than )- million hectares of
cropland are degraded and lost $eca"se of soil erosion. 'his comes at a time when food
prod"ction sho"ld $e increasing dramaticall( to meet the needs of a rapidl( expanding
pop"lation. 7imentel noted that per&capita cropland has declined *- percent worldwide in
the past decade. 1'he onl( wa( to re2erse the growing im$alance $etween h"man
pop"lation n"m$ers and food s"ppl( is to acti2el( conser2e cropland, fresh water, energ(
and other en2ironmental reso"rces,1 7imentel said. 1;e m"st foc"s on de2eloping
appropriate, ecologicall( safe agric"lt"ral technologies for increasing food prod"ction.
Bither we are $ra2e eno"gh to limit o"r n"m$ers or nat"re will impose its limits on o"r
n"m$ers and existence,1 he added.
Impacts Overpopulation Biodiversity
'opulation Growt( causes t(e end o0 1iodi,ersit+ leading to t(e destruction o0 our
planet
-aldwell* #3& *--H =>oseph Oeorge aldwell, 7hD, ?'he Bnd of the ;orld, and the Kew
;orld @rder: 'he State of the ;orldA http://www.fo"ndation.$w/'heBnd@f'he;orld.htmC
'he state of the world is disastro"s. 'he planet is c"rrentl( experiencing the greatest
mass extinction of species since the time of the dinosa"rs, RL million (ears ago, and it is
$eing ca"sed solel( $( mankindIs massi2e n"m$ers and ind"strial acti2it(. ,ost of the
species extinction is $eing ca"sed $( rampant destr"ction of forests and wildlife ha$itat.
3n other cases, species are $eing deli$eratel( singled o"t for destr"ction, as in the case of
rhinoceros horn =for Memeni dagger handlesC, or tigers =for hinese medicineC, or whales
=for >apanese whale&meat shopsC.
3nd"strial gasses are poisoning the atmosphere to s"ch an extent that the o#one la(er that
protects all $iological life from extreme radiation is $eing destro(ed. 'hese gasses are
contri$"ting to glo$al warming. Signs of glo$al warming are dramatic and "$i9"ito"s; see
the we$ site http://www.climatehotmap.org for a description of the glo$al&warming pict"re.
,ankindIs large n"m$ers and ind"strial acti2it( are ca"sing s"ch great changes to the
atmosphere that it is concei2a$le that all life on the planetIs s"rface co"ld $e exting"ished
in a relati2el( short time.
8part from the possi$ilit( that present h"man n"m$ers and acti2it( risk catastrophic
destr"ction of the planetIs $iosphere, the h"man species is at the 2er( least ca"sing a
tremendo"s change in the planetIs $iodi2ersit(. @f the estimated L&H- million species on
the planetIs s"rface, an estimated H-,--- are $eing exterminated e2er( (ear. 'he
nat"ralist Bdward @. ;ilson has estimated that if the c"rrent rate of extinction contin"es,
half the BarthIs plant and animal species will disappear $( the end of the twent(&0rst
cent"r(. ;ith each passing (ear, the world $ecomes a less and less 2aried and interesting
place to $e. ;ith each passing (ear, mankind is dist"r$ing to a greater degree the $alance
of nat"re in the $iosphere in which it e2ol2ed o2er millions of (ears, increasing the risk of
precipitating maFor planetar( changes and its own extinction.
For details on the c"rrent state of the world, refer to the ann"al ;orldwatch 3nstit"te
p"$lication, State of t#e +orld, or the ;orld Geso"rces 3nstit"teIs ann"al p"$lication,
+orld ,esources.
3n s"mmar(, mankindIs large n"m$ers and ind"strial acti2it( are ca"sing the extinction of
large n"m$ers of other species, and co"ld lead 9"ickl( to the $iological death of the
planet. 'his destr"ction $egan with the ad2ent of modern technolog( se2eral cent"ries
ago, and accelerated tremendo"sl( with the ad2ent of the petrole"m age. 'he h"man
pop"lation contin"es to grow $( a$o"t ).H & ).+ percent a (ear, and economic acti2it(
=ind"strial prod"ctionC is increasing $( a$o"t three percent per (ear. Bcologicall( di2erse
forests are $eing destro(ed at the rate of )R million hectares per (ear. 'he pace of the
destr"ction is relentless.
'opulation growt( destro+s t(e en,ironment
Harding* #13 Gesearch Scientist& *--) =4"man 7op"lation Orowth and the 8ccelerating
Gate of Species Bxtinction, Barth 7ortals http://www.earthportals.com/extinct.html C
'he acti2ities of L.R $illion h"mans, with man( more to come, portend omino"s
conse9"ences for the f"t"re of life as we know it. 8lread(, there has $een a signi0cant
increase in green&ho"se gases, partic"larl( car$on dioxide associated with fossil f"el
$"rning. 'he predicted impacts of glo$al warming "pon climate, if tr"e, are 2er(
dist"r$ing. 3f the o#one la(er is reall( $eing depleted =recent meas"rements do not reEect
a nat"ral E"ct"ationC, the detrimental impact of increased "ltra2iolet light on plants and
animals co"ld $e de2astating. 7ota$le water is hard to come $( and getting harder. 7lants
and animals are $ecoming extinct at an alarming rate. 3t is this last item that ma( fore$ode
the worst conse9"ences for h"mans.
Impacts Overpopulation Biodiversity
Increases in (uman population will de,astate 1iodi,ersit+ and t(e en,ironment
and
"scalate glo1al warming
'opulation !edia -enter* 2##.& 7op"lation ,edia enter 3nc, ='he ,agnit"de of
7op"lation Orowth and 3ts onse9"ences
http://www.pop"lationmedia.org/iss"es/iss"es.htmlC
'he expansion of h"man acti2it( and associated loss of ha$itat are the leading ca"ses of
the "nprecedented extinctions of plant and animal species worldwide. 'he loss of
$iological di2ersit( leads to insta$ilit( of ecological s(stems, partic"larl( those that are
stressed $( climate change or in2asion of non&nati2e species. ,assi2e r"ral to "r$an
migration in m"ch of the de2eloping world has o2erwhelmed water treatment s(stems,
res"lting in water poll"tion that leads to intolera$le health conditions for man( people.
Despite this migration, r"ral pop"lations are also growing, leading to o2er"se of land and
res"ltant erosion of hillsides and silting of ri2ers, as t(pi0ed $( ,adagascar, Kepal and
4aiti. 'he same press"res are hastening the destr"ction of 2ast forest areas and loss of
wildlife ha$itat. 'he loss of forests also red"ces the a$ilit( of the ecos(stem to com$at
glo$al warming. ar$on dioxide that wo"ld $e a$sor$ed $( trees instead sta(s in the
atmosphere. @n a glo$al $asis, emissions of greenho"se gases, s"ch as car$on dioxide, are
rising rather than falling, despite the international agreements designed to red"ce
emissions. Oi2en this trend, man( scientists $elie2e that glo$al warming will accelerate
d"ring this cent"r(, with conse9"ences incl"ding rising sea le2els, growing weather
se2erit(, and disr"ption of agric"lt"re. Oreenho"se gas emissions are increasing in
de2eloping co"ntries, where pop"lations are expanding most rapidl(. 3n some of these
co"ntries, energ( cons"mption and prod"ction of greenho"se gases is rising on a per
capita $asis as the co"ntries! economies expand. 3n most, there is an "nderstanda$le
desire to increase li2ing standards $( increasing prod"ction and per
capita cons"mption of energ( and reso"rces. ,edian proFections of expanding economic
acti2it( in de2eloping co"ntries indicate that the de2eloping world will $e prod"cing more
greenho"se gases than the de2eloped co"ntries $( the (ear *-*-. 8t the same time, the
de2eloped co"ntries are generall( failing to make progress on red"ction of greenho"se gas
emissions, in part $eca"se of contin"ing pop"lation increases, especiall( in the United
States. Oi2en the trends in pop"lation, energ( and reso"rce cons"mption, com$ined with
technological inno2ations, the ad2erse h"man impact on the glo$al ecos(stem co"ld triple
or 9"adr"ple $( the (ear *-L-.
'opulation growt( will destro+ our 1iosp(ere.
-aldwell* #3& *--H =>oseph Oeorge aldwell, 7hD, ?'he Bnd of the ;orld, and the Kew
;orld @rder: "rrent 'rends and ;hat ;ill 4appen if 'he( ontin"eA
http://www.fo"ndation.$w/'heBnd@f'he;orld.htmC
8t the present time, a$o"t one&sixth of the planetIs pop"lation has a high le2el of ind"strial
prod"ction, and the rest of the pop"lation is stri2ing to achie2e high le2els also. ;hat this
means is that, in the a$sence of war or other phenomena to red"ce ind"strial capacit( and
acti2it(, the le2el of ind"strial prod"ction will contin"e to increase e2en if the h"man
pop"lation tapers oD. 'he ann"al OD7 per capita of the richest nations is on the order of
a$o"t [*L,--- =OK7 per capita, p"rchasing&power&parit( =777C, c"rrent international [C,
whereas for poor co"ntries it is a$o"t [*,--- per (ear. 'he world a2erage is a$o"t [R,---.
8t a growth rate =in ind"strial prod"ctionC of three percent a (ear, it wo"ld take the rest of
the world a$o"t 0ft( (ears to catch "p to where the de2eloped co"ntries are toda(. 'his
means that e2en if the h"man pop"lation were to le2el oD $( *-L-, glo$al ind"strial
prod"ction wo"ld contin"e to increase thro"gho"t this period, e2en if the de2eloped
nations ?stood stillA and the poorer nations F"st tried to catch "p. Oi2en the commitment
of all nations to the increased standards of li2ing associated with increased ind"strial
prod"ction, glo$al ind"strial prod"ction is $o"nd to contin"e to soar as poor co"ntries
stri2e to $ecome rich, e2en if pop"lation le2els oD. Under the c"rrent world order,
ind"strial prod"ction will contin"e to soar to higher and higher le2els, and the massi2e
destr"ction of the en2ironment that is ca"sed $( ind"strial acti2it( will intensif(.
3n s"mmar(, e2en "nder the wildest ass"mptions a$o"t decreasing fertilit( rates, h"man
pop"lation le2els will contin"e to rise, and ind"strial acti2it( will soar exponentiall(, for
generations to come. 'he destr"ction to the $iosphere will contin"e "na$ated. 'he
planetIs $iosphere and $iodi2ersit( < alread( reeling from mankindIs assa"lt < are doomed.
Unless radical change happens.
Impacts: Deforestation
,erpopulation causes de0orestation w(ic( targets t(e 3
rd
world w(o are
dependent on frewood
Hinric(son* Senior 'rogram Bicer wit( 2N population 0und* :.
=Don, 7"tting the $ite on h"man life: rapid h"man pop"lation growth is de2o"ring glo$al
nat"ral reso"rces, 3nternational ;ildlife ,aga#ine, Septem$er/@cto$er )//+,
http://www.dieoD.org/page)*-.htmC
'he 9"est for more crop and gra#ing land has sealed the fate of m"ch of the world!s
tropical forests. %etween )/.) and )/:R, ara$le land expanded $( L/ million hectares, while forests shrank $( at least
)*L million hectares. 4owe2er, cons"ltant 4arrison estimates that d"ring the same period, land "sed for settlements, roads,
ind"stries, oDice $"ildings and other de2elopment expanded $( more than L- million hectares as a res"lt of growth in "r$an
centers, red"cing the amo"nt of ara$le land in s"rro"nding areas. onse9"entl(, the amo"nt of nat"ral ha$itat wiped o"t to
prod"ce the L/&million&hectare net in ara$le land ma( ha2e exceeded )-- million hectares. 3f c"rrent trends
contin"e, most tropical forests will soon $e destro(ed or damaged $e(ond reco2er(. @f the
.R co"ntries that presentl( encompass tropical forests, onl( fo"rS%ra#il, O"(ana, 7ap"a
Kew O"inea and WaireSare likel( to retain maFor "ndamaged tracts $( *-)-, less than a
generation awa(. 7op"lation press"re contri$"tes to deforestation not onl( $eca"se of
increased demand for croplandand li2ing space $"t also $eca"se of increased demand for
f"elwood, on which half of the world!s people depend for heating and cooking. 'he
maForit( of s"$&Saharan 8frica!s pop"lation is dependent on f"elwood: :* percent of all Kigerians,
.- percent of 6en(ans, :- percent of all ,alagasies, .+ percent of Ohanaians, /H percent of Bthiopians, /- percent of
Somalians and :) percent of S"danese. %( )//-, )-- million 'hird ;orld residents lacked s"Dicient
f"elwood to meet minim"m dail( energ( re9"irements, and close to ).H $illion were cons"ming wood
faster than forest growth co"ld replenish it. @n a2erage, cons"mption o"tpaces s"ppl( $( H- percent in s"$&Saharan 8frica
as a whole, $( .- percent in the S"dan and 3ndia, $( )L- percent in Bthiopia and $( *-- percent in Kiger. 3f present trends
contin"e, F8@ predicts, another ) $illion people will $e faced with critical f"elwood shortages $( the end of the decade.
8lread(, growing rings of desolationSland den"ded for f"elwood or $"ilding materialsS
s"rro"nd man( 8frican cities, s"ch as @"agado"go" in %"rkina Faso, Kiame( in Kiger and
Dakar in Senegal. %( *---, the ;orld %ank estimates, half to three&9"arters of all ;est 8frica!s f"elwood cons"mption
will $e $"rned in towns and cities. 8ccording to the ;orld %ank, remed(ing the f"elwood shortage will re9"ire planting LL
million hectaresSan area nearl( twice the si#e of 3tal(Swith fast&growing trees at a rate of *.. million hectares a (ear, 02e
times the present ann"al rate of LLL,--- hectares.
Impacts: Democracy
,erpopulation is a 1arrier to democrac+
;all, U4 of ;a0aii, ,H >@ohn B, 1eative .op"lation ro0th% 0hy 0e m"$t, an! ho0 0e co"l!, achieve it, .op"lation an! environment, vol"me
/:, n"mber /, *eptember /,,H, http%88!ieoff4or8pae//,4htm+
4"manit( has $een all too s"ccessf"l in remodeling m"ch of the nat"ral world to ser2e its
own p"rposes. ;hile this has permitted an "nprecedented increase in the n"m$er of
h"mans that the Barth will s"pport, it appears that we ha2e exceeded the limits of o"r
nat"ral life&s"pport s(stems and are rapidl( destro(ing the 2er( reso"rces needed to
s"stain o"r existence. ;e need to t"rn to the con9"est of one last frontier, perhaps the
most diDic"lt and dangero"s one of all, the master( of o"rsel2es. 8 prospero"s, health(,
ed"cated, h"mane, and democratic form of life for e2er(one wo"ld re9"ire the n"m$ers of
people cons"ming the world!s reso"rces to come into some sort of reasona$le $alance with
those reso"rces. 8 $rief look at the list of pressing world pro$lems will make it o$2io"s that the present world
pop"lation is alread( far greater than can $e s"stained, e2en at present le2els of miser(, for 2er( man( more generations.
,erpopulation ris&s restriction o0 political rig(ts* democrac+* and e)tinction o0
cultures
Daily an! (hrlich, U4 of 2alifornia >BerKley+ an! *tanfor! U4, ,4
V7ret,hen C an9 Anne 8G (&timum 8uman >o&ulation SiLeG 3ul6 14G htt&"##9ieo00.org#&age.htmW
%asic h"man rights in the social sphere =s"ch as freedom from racism, sexism, religio"s persec"tion, and
gross economic ine9"it(C sho"ld $e sec"re from pro$lems generated $( the existence of too man(
people. B2er(one sho"ld ha2e access to ed"cation, health care, sanitar( li2ing conditions,
and economic opport"nities; $"t these f"ndamental rights are diDic"lt to ass"re in large
pop"lations, especiall( rapidl( growing ones. 7olitical rights are also related to pop"lation
si#e, altho"gh this is seldom recogni#ed =7arsons, )/..C. Democrac( seems to work $est when
pop"lations are small relati2e to reso"rce $ases; personal freedom tends to $e restricted
in sit"ations of high pop"lation densit( and/or scarce reso"rces.;e think an optim"m pop"lation si#e
sho"ld $e large eno"gh to s"stain 2ia$le pop"lations in geographicall( dispersed parts of the world to preser2e and foster
c"lt"ral di2ersit(. 3t is $( no means o$2io"s that the dominant and spreading 1western1 c"lt"re has all the secrets of
longterm s"r2i2al =Bhrlich, )/:-CSto sa( nothing of cornering the market on other 2al"es. ;e $elie2e that c"lt"ral di2ersit(
is an important feat"re of o"r species in and of itself. Unfort"natel(, man( c"lt"res $orne $( small gro"ps of
people are in danger of $eing swamped $( the dominant c"lt"re with its ad2anced
technologies and sed"cti2e media, or worse, of $eing destro(ed deli$eratel( $eca"se of
social intolerance or conEicts o2er reso"rces.
Impacts: Disease
,erpopulation causes epidemics
"(rlic( > "(rlic( #. =7a"l G., %ing 7rofessor of %iological Science at Stanford and 8nne
4., associate director and polic( coordinator of the enter for onser2ation %iolog( at
Stanford Uni2ersit(, ?@ne with Kine2ehA p. RLC
(ne o0 the most 0rightening =and, "ntil recentl(, least appreciatedC as&e,ts o0 our ,on9ition is the 9eterioration
o0 our e&i9emiologi, en)ironment 5 the gro-ing ,han,es o0 su,,um4ing to an in0e,tious 9isease. S,ientists ha)e long
re,ogniLe9 that the a4ilit6 o0 &athogeni, mi,roorganisms to &er&etuate themsel)es in a human &o&ulation depends in
part on the si#e and densit( of that pop"lation. ;hile our huge &o&ulation siLe is one sign of the
s"ccess of 4omo sapiens, it sim"ltaneo"sl( ,arries a ,ost o0 greater )ulnera4ilit6 to e&i9emi,s. In0e,te9
&eo&le usuall6 either get -ell an9 4e,ome at least tem&oraril6 immune to the 9iseaseG or 9ie. I0 there are 0e- &eo&le in a
&o&ulationG or the6 are -i9el6 9is&erse9G the &athogen that in2ades that segment of h"manit( from an
animal reser2oir runs out o0 in9i)i9uals to in0e,t an9 lea)es that so,iet6 0ree o0 the 9isease. 4"man $eings got
rid of smallpox glo$all( $( "sing 2accination to prod"ce so man( imm"ne indi2id"als that
the 2ir"s died o"t.
In0ectious diseases ris& e)tinction
*o"th 2hina Mornin .o$t ,H
=6a2ita Daswani, ?5eading the wa( to a c"re for 83DSA, )&+, 5/KC
Des&ite the im&ortan,e o0 the 9is,o)er6 o0 the H0a,ilitatingH ,ellG it is not -hat Dr ?enAA4raham -ants to tal2 a4out. !here is a
mu,h more &ressing me9i,al ,risis at han9 A one he 4elie)es the -orl9 must 4e alerte9 to" the &ossi4ilit6 o0 a )irus 9ea9lier
than 8IS.
3f this makes Dr %en&8$raham so"nd like a prophet of doom, then he makes no apolog( for
it. AIDSG the $4ola out4rea2 which killed more than )-- people in 8frica last (ear, the 0lu e&i9emi,
that has now aDected *--,--- in the former So2iet Union & the6 are all, according to Dr %en&
8$raham, the Hti& o0 the i,e4ergH.
!-o 9e,a9es o0 intensi)e stu96 an9 resear,h in the 0iel9 o0 )irolog6 ha)e ,on)in,e9 him o0 one thing" in &la,e o0 natural an9
manAma9e 9isasters or nu,lear -ar0areG humanit6 ,oul9 0a,e e%tin,tion 4e,ause o0 a single )irusG deadlier than 43J.
HAn air4orne )irus is a li)el6G ,om&le% an9 9angerous organism,1 he said. 13t ,an ,ome 0rom a rare animal or 0rom
an6-here an9 ,an mutate ,onstantl6. I0 there is no ,ureG it a00e,ts one &erson an9 then there is a ,hain rea,tion an9 it is
unsto&&a4le. It is a trage96 -aiting to ha&&en.H
'hat ma( so"nd like a far&fetched plot for a 4oll(wood 0lm, $"t Dr %en &8$raham said
histor6 has alrea96 &ro)en his theor6 . Fifteen (ears ago, 0e- ,oul9 ha)e &re9i,te9 the im&a,t o0 AIDS on the
world. $4ola has ha9 s&ora9i, out4rea2s o2er the past *- (ears an9 the onl6 -a6 the 9ea9l6 )irus & which
t"rns internal organs into li9"id & ,oul9 4e ,ontaine9 -as 4e,ause it -as 2ille9 4e0ore it ha9 a ,han,e to s&rea9.
Imagine, he sa(s, i0 it -as ,loser to home: an o"t$reak of that scale in 5ondon, Kew Mork or 4ong
6ong. It ,oul9 ha&&en an(time in the next *- (ears & theoreticall(, it co"ld happen tomorro-.
'he shock of the 83DS epidemic has prompted 2ir"s experts to admit 1that something ne- is
in9ee9 ha&&ening an9 that the threat o0 a 9ea9l6 )iral out4rea2 is imminentHG sai9 3oshua /e9er4erg o0 the <o,2e0eller
Uni)ersit6 in Kew Mork, at a recent conference. 8e a99e9 that the &ro4lem -as H)er6 serious an9 is getting
-orseH.
Dr %en&A4raham sai9" HNature isn't 4enign. !he sur)i)al o0 the human s&e,ies is not a &reor9aine9 e)olutionar6
&rogramme. A4un9ant sour,es o0 geneti, )ariation e%ist 0or )iruses to learn ho- to mutate and e2ade the imm"ne
s(stem.1
4e cites the )/R: 4ong 6ong E" o"t$reak as an example of how 2ir"ses ha2e o"tsmarted
h"man intelligence. 8nd as new 1mega&cities1 are $eing de2eloped in the 'hird ;orld and
rainforests are destro(ed, disease&carr(ing animals and insects are forced into areas of
h"man ha$itation. 1'his raises the 2er( real possi$ilit( that lethalG m6sterious )iruses -oul9, for the
0rst time, in0e,t humanit6 at a large s,ale an9 im&eril the sur)i)al o0 the human ra,eGH he sai9.
Impacts: Genocide
D"E''2AATIN -A2S"S G"N-I?"* STAEDATIN* AN? 'D"ETF* -E"ATING A WEA?
WH"E" "D"EFN" @IGHTS @E E"S2E-"S AN? ?"ATH ST2A?S !ASSA-E" KAAI"NL '"'A"
;all, U4 of ;a0aii, ,H
=>ohn %, Kegati2e 7op"lation growth: wh( we m"st, and how we co"ld, achie2e it,
7op"lation and en2ironment, 2ol"me ):, n"m$er ), Septem$er )//R,
http://dieoD.org/page))/.htmC
8ll of this has had enormo"s impact on h"man societies. Famine, war, ethnic strife, and
disease are pre2alent. Ur$an ghettoes all o2er the world teem with people who cannot 0nd "sef"l emplo(ment.
8nd as o"r s(mpathies are o2erwhelmed $( the sheer mass of h"man s"Dering, we t"rn
awa( from it in despair and cease to respond to the pain of others. @"r range of concern
narrows and narrows, "ntil onl( those of o"r own race, c"lt"re, class, and religio"s gro"p
command o"r s(mpathies, and we hide $ehind the gates of closed, g"arded comm"nities
or the $o"ndaries of tri$e or ethnic gro"p and reFect all others. 'his loss of ci2ilit(
impo2erishes the spirit and we $ecome indiDerent to genocide, star2ation, po2ert(,
ignorance, and want, and willing to 0ght all others for the land, space, and reso"rces
needed for the maintenance and expansion of o"r own gro"p. Death s9"ads proliferate to
m"rder those who are politicall( acti2e or F"st incon2enient, and wholesale massacres of
1alien1 peoples $ecome almost a matter of ro"tine.
Impacts: Human Rights
@-./(@(*L+I@A IS + <+//I./ @ <+SI0 !*&+A /IB!S
;all, U4 of ;a0aii, ,H
=>ohn %, Kegati2e 7op"lation growth: wh( we m"st, and how we co"ld, achie2e it,
7op"lation and en2ironment, 2ol"me ):, n"m$er ), Septem$er )//R,
http://dieoD.org/page))/.htmC
8ll of these things are related to the densit( of h"man pop"lations and competition for the reso"rces re9"ired for their
welfare. ;ith the present world pop"lation, man( critical reso"rces are $eing rapidl(
exha"sted, and conEicts $etween peoples intensif( e2en as "npredicta$le changes in
climate and other factors aDecting the li2a$ilit( of the Barth occ"r. 3f we 2al"e h"man
c"lt"re, treas"re ci2ilit(, democrac(, ed"cation, health, and a high standard of li2ing in
general, there is e2ident need for not onl( an end to f"rther growth of the Barth!s
pop"lation, $"t also an act"al and s"$stantial decrease in the n"m$er of people the Barth
is asked to s"pport. ,an( people are highl( concerned a$o"t the pop"lation pro$lem. 3nternational conferences are
held, eDorts are made to pers"ade world leaders of the serio"sness of the pro$lem, ed"cational programs are la"nched, and
famil( planning ser2ices are promoted.
Impacts: Moral Obligation
We (a,e a moral o1ligation to pre,ent o,erpopulation
"(rlic( et al :4 =7a"l G., %ing 7rofessor of 7op"lation St"dies and 7rofessor of %iological
Sciences at Stanford Uni2ersit(, 8nne 4. Bhrlich, Senior Gesearch 8ssociate in the
Department of %iological Sciences of Stanford Uni2ersit(, and Oretchen . Dail(, %ing
3nterdisciplinar( Gesearch Scientist at Stanford Uni2ersit(, ?'he Stork and 'he 7lowA
p./-C
@fco"rse, our o-n moral )alues are im&li,it in our re,ommen9ations. (ne ,oul9 argue =and some ha2e arg"edW
that the strateg6 o0 the ri,h nations shoul9 4e to turn the -ealth6 -orl9 into a series o0 li0e4oats in -hi,h their ,itiLens ,an
sur)i)e the en)ironmental holo,aust that threatens the goo9 shi& $arth. ;e $elie2e, in contrast, that e)er6 e00ort
shoul9 4e ma9e to gi)e 9e,ent li)es to those &assengers alrea96 on the shi&G mean-hile 9oing e)er6thing &ossi4le to re&air it.
;e wo"ld limit the Eow of passengers coming "p the gangplank so the( will $e
o"tn"m$ered $( those d(ing nat"ral deaths on $oard, grad"all( red"cing the passenger
list.
We (a,e an et(ical o1ligation to (alt o,erpopulation
;ar!in, .hD in microbioloy L *tanfor! U, 99
=Oarrett, Bthical 3mplications of arr(ing apacit(, )/..,
http://www.dieoD.org/page/R.htmC
@n paper, the s(stem ma( look 0ne, $"t the general p"$lic is "nderstanda$l( afraid of it. 8dministrati2e law gi2es power to
administrators, who are h"man and hence falli$le. 'heir decisions ma( $e self ser2ing. >ohn 8dams called for 1a go2ernment
of laws, and not of men.1 ;e rightl( esteem this as a desira$le ideal. 'he practical 9"estion we m"st face is
how far can we safel( depart from the ideal "nder the press"re of ecological necessit(Q 'his
is the harrowing -uis custodies pro$lem; [+] it has no eas( sol"tions. [L] [d] 'he concept of carr(ing capacit( calls for the
conser2ati2e, $alanced e9"ation t(pe of thinking that has led to the tri"mphs of thermod(namics [)-] and modern
chemistr(. %"t applied to h"man pro$lems connected with exploiting the en2ironment the
concept of carr(ing capacit( has $een percei2ed as a threatening one. 8s regards pop"lations of
non&h"man animals and plants, we are F"st now $eginning to grapple with the implications of carr(ing capacit(. ;hen it
comes to h"manit( itself, it is do"$tf"l if we (et ha2e the co"rage to s(stematicall( examine all possi$ilities, as the following
report $( Kicholas ;ade, from Science =)/.+C makes clear. 'he famine that str"ck the six Sahelian #one
co"ntries of ;est 8frica last (ear is tho"ght to ha2e killed some )--,--- people and left .
million others dependent on foreigners! food hando"ts. 'he same or worse ma( happen
again this (ear. 'he essence of the traged( is that the famine was ca"sed not $( dr(
weather or some p"tati2e climatic change $"t, primaril(, $( man himself . o"ld not ;estern
skills, applied in time, ha2e sa2ed the primiti2e nomads and slash&and&$"rn farmers from destro(ing their own landQ ;estern
inter2ention in the Sahel, ;estern science and technolog(, and the $est intentioned eDorts of donor agencies and
go2ernments o2er the last se2eral decades, ha2e in fact made a principal contri$"tion to the destr"ction.1@ne of the
$asic factors in the sit"ation is o2erpop"lation, $oth h"man and $o2ine, $ro"ght a$o"t $(
the application of modern science,1 sa(s a former Food and 8gric"lt"ral @rgani#ation =F8@C sociologist.
8ccording to a recent in&ho"se report on the Sahel prepared $( the 8genc( for 3nternational De2elopment =83DC, 1'o a large
extent the deterioration. of the s"$sistence $ase is directl( attri$"ta$le to the fact that man!s inter2entions in the delicatel(
$alanced ecological #ones $ordering desert areas ha2e "s"all( $een narrowl( concei2ed and poorl( implemented.1 1'oo
man( of o"r proFects ha2e $een sing"larl( "nprod"cti2e and . . . we ha2e tedio"sl( reintrod"ced proFects which o"ght ne2er
to ha2e $een attempted in the 0rst place,1 sa(s ,ichael ,. 4orowit#, a State Uni2ersit( of Kew Mork anthropologist who has
st"died the nomad peoples of Kiger. 8nd, to 9"ote the 83D report again, 13t m"st $e recogni#ed that assistance
agencies ha2e ignored the principles [of eDecti2e reso"rce management], and the
conse9"ence of indiscriminate s"pport has prod"ced negati2e res"lts or, on occasion,
disaster.1
Impacts: Oil Depletion
,erpopulation will e)(aust oil 1+ 2#14* ris&ing disease* soil erosion* and lac& o0
1iodi,ersit+
.imentel an! <iampietro, 2ornell U4 an! I$tit"to of 1a-ionale !ella 1"tri-ione, ,4
VDa)i9 an9 MarioG Coo9G /an9G >o&ulationG an9 the US e,onom6G No)em4er +1G
htt&"##---.9ieo00.org#&age4*.htmW
'he a2aila$ilit( of non&renewa$le fossil energ( is s"pporting the high le2els of crop prod"ction now $eing enFo(ed $( U.S.
agric"lt"re. 'h"s far, prod"ction has $een a$le to keep "p with the food needs of o"r expanding pop"lation. Fossil
energ( also powers o"r 2ast transportation s(stem and ind"strial de2elopment. 8s
important, its a2aila$ilit( has impro2ed the 9"alit( of life, protecting h"mans from
n"mero"s diseases. For example, man( diseases are transmitted 2ia water, and the
a2aila$ilit( of energ( makes possi$le the p"ri0cation and deli2er( of clean water. Fossil
f"els are "sed in processes to remo2e sewage and to process wastes $efore the( are
ret"rned to the en2ironment. 7esticides, prod"ced from petrochemicals, pla( a maFor role
in protecting crops from pests and controlling 2ectors of h"man disease, e.g. mos9"ito 2ectors of
encephalitis. Fossil energ( "se in all U.S. economic sectors has increased from *- to as m"ch as )---&fold in F"st + decades.
U.S. citi#ens cons"me *- to H- times more fossil energ( per capita than most people in de2eloping co"ntries. Since )/+L,
energ( for agric"lt"ral "se has increased a$o"t +&fold while crop (ields ha2e increased a$o"t H&fold. "rrentl( the +--
gallons of oil e9"i2alents expended to feed each 8merican amo"nt to a$o"t ).N of all energ( "sed in this co"ntr( each (ear.
Fossil f"els are 0nite, meaning their s"ppl( is s"$Fect to depletion and more importantl(
once gone, the( can not $e replenished. 'he estimates concerning f"t"re a2aila$ilit( of fossil f"els are
disco"raging, especiall( for oil and gas. Oo2ernment reports indicate that onl( )L to *- (ears of oil
reso"rces and *- to H- (ears of nat"ral gas reser2es remain, gi2en c"rrent "se le2els. Kote, 8laska
peaked for its oil prod"ction in )/:: and oil reser2es are expected to $e depleted $( *-)L. U.S. oil prod"ction has $een
declining $( +--,--- to L--,--- $arrels per (ear. 'o a"gment the diminishing s"ppl(, the U.S. now imports L:N of its oil
from the ,iddle Bast and other areas which are estimated to ha2e reser2es lasting from H- to L- (ears. 'he
diminishing le2els of oil and gas reser2es $ecome more critical each (ear and indicate a
serio"s energ( pro$lem alread( exists here. F"rthermore, U.S. reliance on foreign oil ca"ses a negati2e
$alance of trade pa(ments and o$sc"res the reali#ation of how serio"s the domestic fossil f"el sit"ation is. Fort"natel(, U.S.
coal reser2es, proFected to last a$o"t )-- (ears, gi2e some time in which to de2elop renewa$le energ( s(stems. ,eanwhile
the $"rning of coal reso"rces creates serio"s en2ironmental poll"tion pro$lems which need to $e o2ercome. Bn2ironmental
osts of 8gric"lt"re 'he "se of inappropriate agric"lt"ral practices, like large monoc"lt"res and
remo2al of shelter$elts, contri$"tes to serio"s wind and water erosion. Soil and water losses are
responsi$le for signi0cant economic and en2ironmental on&site costs in U.S. agric"lt"re. Bach (ear the estimated + $illion
tons of soil and )H- $illion tons of water lost from +-- million acres of U.S. cropland translate into an on&site economic loss
of more than [*. $illion. 'he most signi0cant component of this cost is the loss of 2al"a$le soil n"trients, which m"st $e
replaced $( increased applications of fossil&$ased fertili#ers in order to maintain and a"gment (ields. 3n addition, erosion
ca"ses a loss of $iodi2ersit( that is impossi$le to 9"antif( in terms of dollars, altho"gh preser2ation of soil $iota is
of maFor $ene0t to maintaining soil 9"alit( and prod"cti2it(. Brosion ca"ses signi0cant ecological damage,
in the form of siltation of a9"atic s(stems and destr"ction of stream and lake ecos(stems.
Fre9"entl(, some pesticides and fertili#ers contained in eroded agric"lt"ral sediments ma( poison 0sh and other wildlife.
Impacts: Power Wars
A0ter we reac( carr+ing capacit+* social* political* and economic power will decide
w(o sur,i,es
(hrlich et al ,3 =7a"l G. Bhrlich, %ing 7rofessor of 7op"lation St"dies and 7rofessor of %iological
Sciences at Stanford Uni2ersit(, 8nne 4. Bhrlich, Senior Gesearch 8ssociate in the
Department of %iological Sciences of Stanford Uni2ersit(, Oretchen . Dail(, 7rofessor in
the Department of %iological Sciences; Senior Fellow in the ;oods 3nstit"te for the
Bn2ironment, 1Food Sec"rit(, 7op"lation and Bn2ironment1 7op"lation and De2elopment
Ge2iew, 2ol"me )/ iss"e ), p. )&H*, http://www.Fstor.org/sta$le/*/H:H:HC
!he nutritional ,arr6ing ,a&a,it6 o0 $arth is the ma%imum num4er o0 &eo&le that ,oul9 4e &ro)i9e9 -ith a9equate 9iets at an6
gi)en time -ithout un9ermining the &lanet's ,a&a,it6 to su&&ort &eo&le in the 0uture. "lt"ral and technological
inno)ation ma6 in,rease nutritional ,arr6ing ,a&a,it6G =ust as irre)ersi4le =o2er a time scale rele2ant to societ(C
9e&letion o0 essentialG nons"$stit"ta$le resour,es ma6 re9u,e it. ;hile 4io&h6si,al 0a,tors im&ose the ultimate limits
on nutritional ,arr6ing ,a&a,it6G so,ialG &oliti,alG an9 e,onomi, restraints 9etermine the e%tent to -hi,h that &otential ,a&a,it6
is a,tuall6 realiLe9. !hese ,onstraints are roote9 in inequit6 in the o-nershi& o0 ara4le Lan9, in the fre9"ent choice
of lo-Anutrition o)er highAnutrition ,ro&s and &erisha4le o)er eas6AtoAstore 0arm &ro9u,tsG in access to inp"ts and
farm credit, in the a2aila$ilit( of Fo$s, in the -orl9 0oo9 mar2etG an9 in &oliti,al negle,t o0 the
agric"lt"ral sector in man( poor co"ntries.
Impacts: Resource Wars
,erpopulation causes resource wars
"(rlic( > "(rlic( #. =7a"l G., %ing 7rofessor of 7op"lation St"dies and 7rofessor of
%iological Sciences at Stanford Uni2ersit(, 8nne 4. Bhrlich, Senior Gesearch 8ssociate in
the Department of %iological Sciences of Stanford Uni2ersit(, ?@ne with Kine2ehA p. :HC
Deman9 0or ,hea& resour,es on the &art o0 the ri,h nations has 9one more than ,ontri4ute to en)ironmental ra&e an9 &illage in
&oor ,ountries. 3n man( cases, it has le9 to -hat ha)e 4e,ome 2no-n as Oresour,e -arsGP conEicts either
ca"sed $( attempts to appropriate the nat"ral riches of less powerf"l nations or minorit(
gro"ps, or $eg"n for other reasons $"t 0nanced $( those nat"ral riches. It is an ol9 stor6 that is
still 4eing a,te9 out an9 in some instan,es intensi0ie9. In the 1*sG resour,e -ars 2ille9 an estimate9 5 million &eo&leG ,reate9
almost 6 million international re0ugeesG an9 9is&la,e9 4et-een 11 an9 15 million &eo&le -ithin nations. Sometimes
these str"ggles ha2e $een o2er prestige reso"rces: one of the $loodiest recent wars was
fo"ght in Sierra 5eone and 5i$eria o2er diamonds. 8 more important reso"rce, copper,
helped to f"el a $lood( ci2il war on %o"gain2ille, an island pro2ince of 7ap"a Kew O"inea.
'ho"sands died, most of them ci2ilians, in a conEict that lasted longer than a decade. 'he
ca"ses incl"ded en2ironmental damage from the worldIs largest open&pit copper mine and
disagreement o2er who was going to control the re2en"e stream from the mine, as well as
a complex of other regional iss"es. As is so o0ten the ,aseG ra- &oliti,al &o-er -as 4rought to 4ear to ma2e a
&ro0itG an9 in the &ro,ess the en)ironment -as 9estro6e9.
Eesource wars will go nuclear
-aldwell 2##3 =>oseph Oeorge aldwell, 7hD and former director of research and
de2elopment at the US 8rm( Blectronic 7ro2ing Oro"ndIs Blectromagnetic Bn2ironmental
'est Facilit( ?'he Bnd of the ;orld, and the Kew ;orld @rder: 'he 5ikelihood of Olo$al
K"clear ;arA http://www.fo"ndation.$w/'heBnd@f'he;orld.htmC
3t -oul9 a&&ear that glo4al nu,lear -ar is ine)ita4leG 0or se)eral reasons. A ma=or 0a,tor is the O&oliti,s o0 en)6P 5 the 9esire
0or the Oha)eAnotsP o0 the -orl9 to 9estro6 -hat the Oha)esP ha)e . 'he gap $etween the ind"striali#ed
?westA and the rest of the world is widening, and the hatred and en2( are growing as the
poorer nations reali#e that the( will ne2er catch "p. B a,h 6earG millions more human 4eings are 4orn into
9irest &o)ert6G o)er,ro-9ingG miser6 an9 ho&elessness. !he realiLation is 9a-ning that it is glo4al in9ustrialiLation that is the
root ,ause o0 human miser6G an9 the moti)ation to 4ring that inhumane s6stem to an en9 is gro-ing as 0ast as the glo4al human
&o&ulation. :ith the &roli0eration o0 &lutonium 0rom nu,lear rea,torsG terrorists an9 rogue nations -ill soon ha)e the ,a&a4ilit6
to &ro9u,e thousan9s o0 suit,aseAsiLe9 nu,lear 4om4sG an9 9eli)er them to an6 ,ities in the -orl9. As mentione9 earlierG no
missiles or air&lanes or su4marines are require9.
Another reason -h6 glo4al nu,lear -ar a&&ears ine)ita4le is the 0a,t that nu,lear -ar O9ominatesP all other &ro&ose9 solutions
as a means o0 sto&&ing the ongoing s&e,ies e%tin,tion. Ko other alternati2e accomplishes this. 8s long as
this sit"ation holds, it is F"st a matter of time "ntil the glo$al&n"clear&war sol"tion is
implemented, since contin"ing on the present co"rse leads to a ?deadA planet. 3t wo"ld
appear that g lo4al nu,lear -ar -ill ha&&en )er6 soon, for two main reasons, all"ded to a$o2e. CirstG
human &o)ert6 an9 miser6 are in,reasing at an in,re9i4le rate . 'here are now three $illion more desperatel(
poor people on the planet than there were F"st fort( (ears ago. Despite decades of
ind"strial de2elopment, the n"m$er of wretchedl( poor people contin"es to soar. !he &ressure
0or -ar mounts as the &o&ulation e%&lo9es. Se,on9G -ar is moti)ate9 46 resour,e s,ar,it6 AA the 9esire o0 one grou& to a,quire
the lan9G -aterG energ6G or other resour,es &ossesse9 46 another. :ith ea,h &assing 6earG ,ro-9ing an9 miser6 in,reaseG raising
the moti)ation 0or -ar to higher le)els.
!here is also a thir9 0a,tor moti)ating glo4al -arG an9 that in)ol)es timing. :ith the &assage o0 timeG less an9 less 4ene0it
a,,rues to the -inner. 3f an(one is moti2ated to wage glo$al n"clear war and has the means to
do so, sooner is 2er( likel( $etter than later. 3f dela(ed too long, there ma( $e nothing left
to gain. ;ith each passing (ear, the planet!s $iodi2ersit( decreases, another two percent
of the planet!s remaining petrole"m reser2es are cons"med, and the risk of $iospheric
extinction =e.g., from a greenho"se eDectC increases.
(n,e goneG these resour,es AA the )er6 reasons 0or -aging -ar AA are gone 0ore)er. $%tin,t s&e,ies -ill ne)er returnG an9 the
&lanet's 0ossil 0uel reser)esG on,e e%hauste9G are gone 0ore)er. In the &ast 5* 6earsG human in9ustrial a,ti)it6 has ,onsume9
a4out hal0 the -orl9's reser)es o0 &etroleum an9 has le9 to the e%tin,tion o0 &erha&s one million s&e,ies. In another 5* 6earsG
human in9ustrial a,ti)it6 -ill ,onsume all o0 the remaining &etroleum reser)es an9 9estro6 millions o0 s&e,ies moreG in,lu9ing
the larger animal s&e,ies. Cor those tem&te9 to -age -arG the time to stri2e is no- AA in 0i0t6 6ears there -ill 4e nothing le0t to
-in.
Impacts: Soil Erosion
,erpopulation causes soil erosion
"(rlic( et al :4 =7a"l G., %ing 7rofessor of 7op"lation St"dies and 7rofessor of %iological
Sciences at Stanford Uni2ersit(, 8nne 4. Bhrlich, Senior Gesearch 8ssociate in the
Department of %iological Sciences of Stanford Uni2ersit(, and Oretchen . Dail(, %ing
3nterdisciplinar( Gesearch Scientist at Stanford Uni2ersit(, ?'he Stork and 'he 7lowA
p.:/C
@stensi$l( rene-a4le resour,es that su&&ort 0oo9 &ro9u,tion are 4eing ,onsume9 or hee9lessl6 9estro6e9 at a,,elerating
rates all aroun9 the -orl9. !he to&soil on agri,ultural lan9 is 4eing ero9e9 at "nprecedented rates. Aqui0ers are
4eing su,2e9 9r6 for a few decades of crop irrigation. Forests, which help to ameliorate the
climate and often pro2ide water to farms and towns in the same watershed, are destro(ed
en masse, fre9"entl( to market the tim$er at 0re&sale prices or F"st to clear land. 7rasslan9s
are o)ergraLe9 an9 9enu9e9. (,eans are 4eing )a,uume9 of edi$le 0shes and poisoned with poll"tion.
;etlands, often critical to 0sheries or to maintaining gro"ndwater s"pplies, are drained
and 0lled for de2elopment. (ur &ri,eless li)ing ,a&italA&o&ulations an9 s&e,ies o0 other organismsAis 4eing -aste9
in an a&&arent 0renL6 o0 oneAtime ,onsum&tion or 9estru,tion
SOIL EROSION LEADS TO EXTINCTION
A,er+ :4= Dennis, expert on food sta$ilit(, senior ag anal(st with the Dept. of State, 7olic(
8nal(st for Dept. of 8gric"lt"re, Director of 4"dson 3nstit"te
http://www.mandak#erotill.org/$ook)./planet.htmlC
!he true longAterm threat to human e%isten,e is soil erosion. Do"$ling the (ields on the $est and safest
farmland c"ts soil erosion $( more than half. 8nd now her$icides and conser2ation tillage
are letting "s c"t those low rates of soil erosion $( RL to /: percent. It shoul9 no- 4e &ossi4le to
4uil9 to&soil an9 soil tilth on mu,h o0 the -orl9's 4est 0armlan9 && while carr(ing on intensi2e high&(ield
farming. Cor 1*G*** 6earsG man has a,,e&te9 soil erosion as the longAterm &ri,e 0or ha)ing a 9e&en9a4le 0oo9 su&&l6 in the
short run. 3n the U.S. alone, the onser2ation !'echnolog( 3nformation enter reports ro"ghl(
)-- million acres "sing conser2ation tillage s(stems. !he s6stems are ,ontinuing their ra&i9 s&rea9
through su,h -i9el6A9i00ering agri,ultures as ;estern B"rope, %ra#il, 8"stralia and 6en(a. ;e are
doing this with chemicals. 4er$icides are the 0rst alternati2e mankind has e2er de2eloped
to 1$are&earth1 farming. 'hese her$icide&$ased farming s(stems are the most s"staina$le
farming S(stems e2er de2ised. 'he( sa2e more soil, e2en as the( enco"rage more
earthworms, more soil micro$es and more soil tilth than plowing. Kor do the her$icides
present an( signi0cant threat to wildlife or people from r"noD or resid"es.
Impacts: Starvation
Increasing population leads to 1illions malnouris(ed
.imientel, ;"an, an! 2or!ova, ,H
VDa)i9G .ue-enG AnaG an9 Mar,iaG !he im&a,t o0 &o&ulation gro-th on 0oo9 su&&lies an9 en)ironmentG
>o&ulation an9 De)elo&ment <e)ie-, Ce4ruar6 16G htt&"##9ieo00.org#&age57.htmW
8s the world pop"lation contin"es to grow geometricall(, great press"re is $eing placed on
ara$le land, water, energ(, and $iological reso"rces to pro2ide an ade9"ate s"ppl( of food
while maintaining the integrit( of o"r ecos(stem. 8ccording to the ;orld %ank and the
United Kations, from ) to * $illion h"mans are now malno"rished, indicating a
com$ination of ins"Dicient food, low incomes, and inade9"ate distri$"tion of food. 'his is the
largest n"m$er of h"ngr( h"mans e2er recorded in histor(. 3n hina a$o"t :- million are now
malno"rished and h"ngr(. %ased on c"rrent rates of increase, the world pop"lation is proFected to do"$le from
ro"ghl( R $illion to more than )* $illion in less than L- (ears =7imentel et al., )//+C. 8s the world pop"lation
expands, the food pro$lem will $ecome increasingl( se2ere, concei2a$l( with the n"m$ers
of malno"rished reaching H $illion. %ased on their e2al"ations of a2aila$le nat"ral reso"rces, scientists of the
Go(al Societ( and the U.S. Kational 8cadem( of Sciences ha2e iss"ed a Foint statement reinforcing the concern a$o"t the
growing im$alance $etween the world!s pop"lation and the reso"rces that s"pport h"man li2es =GS and K8S, )//*C.
Geports from the Food and 8gric"lt"ral @rgani#ation of the United Kations, n"mero"s
other international organi#ations, and scienti0c research also con0rm the existence of this
serio"s food pro$lem. For example, the per capita a2aila$ilit( of world grains, which make "p :- per cent of the
world!s food, has $een declining for the past )L (ears =6endall and 7imentel, )//+C. ertainl( with a 9"arter
million people $eing added to the world pop"lation each da(, the need for grains and all
other food will reach "nprecedented le2els.
Impacts: Water Wars
,erpopulation causes water wars
"(rlic( et al :4 =7a"l G., %ing 7rofessor of 7op"lation St"dies and 7rofessor of %iological
Sciences at Stanford Uni2ersit(, 8nne 4. Bhrlich, Senior Gesearch 8ssociate in the
Department of %iological Sciences of Stanford Uni2ersit(, and Oretchen . Dail(, %ing
3nterdisciplinar( Gesearch Scientist at Stanford Uni2ersit(, ?'he Stork and 'he 7lowA
p.)/C
hina is not alone "nder that threat. In,reasing inequit6G hungerG 9iseaseG en)ironmental &ro4lemsG an9 resour,e
shortages are li2el6 to 4e har4ingers o0 so,ial ,olla&se. 3n man( casesG the6 ma6 ,ause or e%a,er4ate arme9 ,on0li,ts. !he
167 Ara4AIsraeli -ar -as 0ought in &art o)er -aterG and s"pplies are e2en tighter toda(. 3n st"dies
commissioned $( the 8merican 8cadem( of 8rts and Sciences and the Uni2ersit( of
'oronto, thirt( experts concl"ded =$efore the Gwandan disaster and the re2olt in hiapasC
that 1scarcities of renewa$le reso"rces are alread( contri$"ting to 2iolent conEicts in
man( parts of the de2eloping world. !hese ,on0li,ts ma6 0oresha9o- a surge o0 similar )iolen,e in ,oming
9e,a9esG &arti,ularl6 in &oor ,ountries -here shortages o0 -aterG 0orests an9G es&e,iall6G 0ertile lan9G ,ou&le9 -ith ra&i9l6
e%&an9ing &o&ulationsG alrea96 H,ause great har9shi&.H
Water Wars go nuclear
-A.CA 0/ (National Association for Scientific & Cultural Appreciation Water Shortages nly A !atter f "i#e$%
http&''((($nasca$org$u)'Strange*relics*'(ater'(ater$ht#l+
;ater is one of the prime essentials for life as we know it. !he &lain 0a,t is A no -aterG no li0eM !his 4e,omes all
the more -orr6ing -hen -e realiLe that the -orl9;s su&&l6 o0 9rin2a4le -ater -ill soon 9iminish quite ra&i9l6. 3n fact a
recent report commissioned $( the United Kations has emphasi#ed that $( the (ear *-*L at least
66J o0 the -orl9s &o&ulation -ill 4e -ithout an a9equate -ater su&&l6. 8s a disaster in the making water shortage
ranks in the top categor(. ;itho"t water we are 0nished, and it is th"s imperati2e that we
protect the mechanism thro"gh which we deri2e o"r s"ppl( of this life gi2ing E"id.
Unfort"natel( the exact opposite is the case. :e are 9oing in,al,ula4le 9amage to the &lanets ,a&a,it6 to generate
-ater an9 this -ill ha)e 0ar ranging ,onsequen,es for the not too distant f"t"re. 'he United Kations has
warned that $"rning of fossil f"els is the prime ca"se of water shortage. ;hile there ma( $e other
reasons s"ch as increased solar acti2it( it is clear that this is a sit"ation o2er which we can exert a
great deal of control. 3f not then the f"t"re will $e 2er( $leak indeedV 8lread( the warning signs are
there. 'he last (ear has seen de2astating heatwa2es in man( parts of the world incl"ding the US8
where the state of 'exas experienced its worst dro"ght on record. Blsewhere in the United States
forest 0res raged o"t of control, while other regions of the glo$e experienced dro"ght conditions
that were e2en more se2ere. 7arts of 3ran, 8fgahnistan, hina and other neigh$o"ring co"ntries
experienced their worst dro"ghts on record. !hese ,on9itions also e%ten9e9 throughout man( parts of
A0ri,a an9 it is clear that i0 ,ir,umstan,es remain un,hange9 -e are 0a,ing a 9isaster o0 e&i, &ro&ortions . ,oreo2er it
will $e one for which there is no eas( answer. 'he spectre of a world water shortage e2okes a
tr"l( frightening scenario. 3n fact the United Kations warns that 9is&utes o)er -ater -ill 4e,ome the
&rime sour,e o0 ,on0li,t in the not too 9istant 0uture. :here these shortages 4e,ome e)er more a,ute it ,oul9 0orseea4l6 lea9 to
the 4rin2 o0 nu,lear ,on0li,t . @n a lesser scale water, and the price of it, will ac9"ire an importance
somewhat like the c"rrent 2al"e placed on oil. 'he diDerence of co"rse is that while oil is not 2ital
for life, water most certainl( isV 3t seems clear then that in f"t"re (ears co"ntries rich in water will
enFo( an importance that perhaps the( do not ha2e toda(. 3n these circ"mstances &o-er shi0ts are
ine)ita4leG an9 this -ill un9ou4te9l6 ,reate its o-n stri0e and tension. 3n the long term the implications do
not look enco"raging. 3t is a two edged sword. First the shortage of water, and then the
increased stresses this will impose "pon an alread( stressed world of politics. 3t means
that answers need to $e fo"nd immediatel(. 8nswers that will $oth ameliorate the damage
to the en2ironment, and also 0nd new so"rces of water for f"t"re cons"mption. 3f not, and
the pro$lem is left "nresol2ed there will e2ent"all( come the da( when we shall 0nd
o"rsel2es with a nightmare sit"ation for which there will $e no o$2io"s answer.
Population Impacts are Prerequisite
,erpopulation outweig(s nuclear war itCs (arder to pre,ent
"(rlic( and ?ail+ :2 =7a"l G., %ing 7rofessor of 7op"lation St"dies and 7rofessor of
%iological Sciences at Stanford Uni2ersit( and Oretchen ., 7rofessor in the Department of
%iological Sciences; Senior Fellow in the ;oods 3nstit"te for the Bn2ironment, 17op"lation,
S"staina$ilit(, and Barth!s arr(ing apacit(1 %ioscience, 2ol"me +* iss"e )-, p. .R)&..),
http://www.Fstor.org/sta$le/)H))//LC
!he t-entieth ,entur6 has 4een mar2e9 46 a profo"nd historical de2elopment: an "nwitting e2ol"tion
of the power to serio"sl( impair h"man life&s"pport s(stems. Nu,lear -ea&ons represent one
so"rce of this power. Met, e)en the ,om&le%ities o0 glo4al arms ,ontrol are 9-ar0e9 46 those inherent in restraining
runa-a6 gro-th o0 the s,ale o0 the human enter&riseG the second sour,e o0 &ossi4le 9isaster. Diminishing the nu,lear threat
in)ol)es relati2el( few parties, well&esta$lished international protocols, alternati2e strategies
that carr( easil( assessed costs and $ene0ts, shortAan9 longAterm in,enti)es that are largel6 ,ongruentG an9
the -i9es&rea9 re,ognition o0 the se)erit6 o0 the threat. 3n contrast, =ust the o&&osite a&&lies to ,ur4ing the in,reasingl6
9e)astating im&a,t o0 human &o&ulation. 3n partic"lar, the most &ersonal li0e 9e,isions o0 e)er6 inha4itant o0 the &lanet
are in)ol)e9 an9 these are ,ontrolle9 46 so,ioe,onomi, s6stems in -hi,h the in,enti)es 0or sa,ri0i,ing the 0uture 0or the
&resent are o)er-helming.
@ocusing on population is more important t(an an+ impact t(e eart( is at sta&e
(hrlich et al ,# =7a"l G., %ing 7rofessor of 7op"lation St"dies and 7rofessor of %iological
Sciences at Stanford Uni2ersit(, 8nne 4. Bhrlich, Senior Gesearch 8ssociate in the
Department of %iological Sciences of Stanford Uni2ersit(, and Oretchen . Dail(, %ing
3nterdisciplinar( Gesearch Scientist at Stanford Uni2ersit(, ?'he Stork and 'he 7lowA
p.++C
For e2er(one, the 4est &la,e to start is at home. For "s, that means the Unite9 StatesG which has one of
the world!s strongest economies, some of the richest endowments of ke( nat"ral reso"rces
=especiall( agric"lt"ral landC, a sta$le democratic go2ernment, and the $est "ni2ersit(&
le2el ed"cational s(stem in the world. 3t also has a potentiall( health( tension $etween a
capitalist economic s(stem and constraints $ased on the "nderstanding that the market
"naided cannot s"ppl( s"staina$ilit( and other social goods that societ( needs $"t that
central planning simpl( docs not work. 3t is not a4sur9 to assume that the U.S. &otentiall6 hol9s the 2e6 to the
human 0uture . ;e see no choice $"t for 8mericans who recogni#e: the predicament to $ecome
hea2il( in2olwd in politics, to take 2oting 2er( sero"sl(, and to pa( attention to
f"ndamental iss"es rather than the crime, pett( politics, accidents, and nonsense that pass
for news in most of the media. <ising ,ar4on 9io%i9e in the atmos&here is in0initel6 more im&ortant than rising
&ri,es on the sto,2 mar2et. 'he c"rrent decline of $iodi2ersit( is a tr"l( cosmic iss"e, an 1e2ent1
that will mark the planet for millions of (ears after the $reak"p of the former So2iet Union
is totall( forgotten. !he ,hanging e)olutionar6 an9 e,ologi,al relationshi&s 4et-een 8omo sa&iens an9 the )irusesG
4a,teriaG an9 0ungi that 0ee9 u&on it -ill almost ,ertainl6 a00e,t man6 more human li)es than the ,hanging relationshi&s
4et-een Israel an9 the >/( or $etween atholics and 7rotestants in Korthern 3reland. Gapid
pop"lation growth, which threatens the f"t"re of e2er(one in our alrea96 o)er&o&ulate9 nationG shoul9
4e mu,h 4igger ne-s than -hi,h &oliti,ian is tr6ing to get ele,te9 46 &romising ta% ,uts or a war on dr"gs.
Turns CasePoverty
,erpopulation e)acer1ates po,ert+
.imentel an! <iampietro, 2ornell U4 an! I$tit"to of 1a-ionale !ella 1"tri-ione, ,4
VDa)i9 an9 MarioG Coo9G /an9G >o&ulationG an9 the US e,onom6G No)em4er +1G
htt&"##---.9ieo00.org#&age4*.htmW
onsider also that HR million 8mericans now li2e in po2ert( and man( of these do not ha2e
s"Dicient food. 'he n"m$er in Feopard( contin"es to grow and gi2es f"rther e2idence that
o"r food sit"ation will worsen as o"r pop"lation grows and all reso"rces, incl"ding food,
$ecome in shorter s"ppl( than e2er $efore. 'o clarif( the extent of the pro$lems concerning land and food
s"ppl( we s"rel( will face in *-L-, an assessment is made of the carr(ing capacit( of a2aila$le land, water, and energ(
reso"rces&all 2ital to achie2ing an ade9"ate s"ppl( of food. %alanced against these, are the impacts a do"$ling of the U.S.
pop"lation can $e expected to inEict on these nat"ral reso"rces. Kot onl( does pop"lation expansion red"ce
a2aila$le cropland per capita, $"t on going soil erosion and expanding "r$ani#ation
contin"all( res"lt in the slow $"t contin"o"s loss of cropland. 8nn"all(, more than * million acres of
prime cropland are lost to erosion, salini#ation, and waterlogging. 3n addition, more than 3 million acres are lost from
c"lti2ation as "r$ani#ation, transportation networks and ind"stries take o2er croplands. F"rthermore, soil erosion
remo2es a$o"t [*- $illion worth of plant n"trients from U.S. agric"lt"ral soils each (ear.
8t present these n"trients are $eing replaced $( hea2( applications of expensi2e, fossil
energ(&$ased fertili#ers. @ther fossil&$ased inp"ts, like pesticides and fossil&powered irrigation s(stems also are
$eing "sed to oDset soil degradation. @nce land $ecomes serio"sl( degraded and "nprod"cti2e, howe2er, farmers are forced
to a$andon it and look elsewhere for more land to c"lti2ate. 4owe2er, this option will not $e possi$le in the f"t"re, $eca"se
there will $e no more land to mo2e into agric"lt"re.
Population Decrease Key
T(e 2S needs to promote a population decrease or o,erpopulation will 1e
ine,ita1le
Gra+ C#2 =>ohn, professor of B"ropean tho"ght at the 5ondon School of Bconomics, ?;ill 4"manit(
%e 5eft 4ome 8loneQA, Kew Statesman, 8"g H-, *--* http://www.greatchange.org/o2&
gra(,homePalone.htmlC
'he last mass extinction has not (et $een f"ll( explained. ,an( scientists $elie2e it to ha2e $een the
res"lt of meteorites whose impact s"ddenl( altered the glo$al climate, $"t no&one can $e s"re. 3n
contrast, the ,ause o0 the &resent mass e%tin,tion is not in 9ou4t" human e%&ansion. 8omo sa&iens are gutting the earth o0
4io9i)ersit6. 'he l"sh nat"ral world in which h"mans e2ol2ed is $eing rapidl( transformed into a
largel( prosthetic en2ironment. r"ciall(, in an( time span that is h"manl( rele2ant, this loss of
$iodi2ersit( is irre2ersi$le. 'r"e, life on earth reco2ered its richness after the last great extinction;
$"t onl( after a$o"t )- million (ears had passed. Unless something o,,urs to 9isru&t the tren9s un9er -a6G all
0uture generations o0 human 4eings -ill li)e in a -orl9 that is more im&o)erishe9 4iologi,all6 than it has 4een 0or aeons.
7i)en the magnitu9e o0 this ,hangeG one -oul9 e%&e,t it to 4e at the ,entre o0 &u4li, 9e4ate. In 0a,tG it is )er6 little 9is,usse9.
@rgani#ations s"ch as the ;orld ;ildlife F"nd press on with their in2al"a$le work, and there are
occasional reports of the destr"ction of wilderness; $"t for the most part, politics and media
de$ates go on as if nothing is happening. !here are man6 reasons 0or this &e,uliar state o0 a00airsG in,lu9ing the
ingraine9 human ha4it o0 9en6ing 9anger until its im&a,t is imminentI 4ut the ,hie0 reason is that it has 4e,ome 0ashiona4le to
9en6 the realit6 o0 o)er&o&ulation. In truthG the root ,ause o0 mass e%tin,tion is too man6 &eo&le. 8s ;ilson p"ts it in his
$ook onsilience: 17op"lation growth can F"stl( $e called the monster on the land.1 Met according to
mainstream political parties and most en2ironmental organi#ations, the despoliation of the
en2ironment is mainl( the res"lt of Eaws in h"man instit"tions. 3f we are entering a desolate world,
the reason is not that h"mans ha2e $ecome too n"mero"s. 3t is $eca"se inF"stice pre2ents proper
"se of the earth!s reso"rces. 'here is no s"ch thing as o2erpop"lation. 3nterestingl(, this 2iew is not
accepted in man( of the world!s poor co"ntries. hina, 3ndia, Bg(pt and 3ran all ha2e pop"lation
programs, as ha2e man( other de2eloping nations. (&&osition to &o&ulation ,ontrol is ,on,entrate9 in ri,h &arts
o0 the -orl9G nota4l6 the USG -here the ?ush a9ministration &ursues a 0un9amentalist )en9etta against international agen,ies
that &ro)i9e 0amil6 &lanning. It is un9erstan9a4le that ri,h ,ountries shoul9 re=e,t the i9ea o0 o)er&o&ulation. In their use o0
resour,esG the6 are themsel)es the most o)er&o&ulate9. !heir a00luen,e 9e&en9s on their a&&ro&riating a hugel6
9is&ro&ortionate share o0 the -orl9's nonArene-a4le resour,es. I0 the6 e)er 0a,e u& to that realit6G the6 -ill ha)e to a9mit that
their a00luen,e is unsustaina4le .
T(e 2S needs to promote a population decrease or o,erpopulation will 1e
ine,ita1le
Gra+ C#2 =>ohn, professor of B"ropean tho"ght at the 5ondon School of Bconomics, ?;ill 4"manit(
%e 5eft 4ome 8loneQA, Kew Statesman, 8"g H-, *--* http://www.greatchange.org/o2&
gra(,homePalone.htmlC
Another reason 0or 9en6ing the realit6 o0 o)er&o&ulation is that the gro-th in human num4ers is e%tremel6 une)en. 3n some
parts of the world, pop"lation is act"all( declining. 'his is strikingl( tr"e in post&comm"nist G"ssia.
8 precipitate fall in p"$lic health and li2ing standards has led to a 2irt"all( "nprecedented
pop"lation collapse, which is set to accelerate f"rther as an 8frican&st(le 83DS die&oD triggered $(
the co"ntr(!s enormo"s n"m$ers of intra2eno"s dr"g "sers $egins to take hold. 3n other co"ntries,
s"ch as >apan, 3tal( and Spain, declining fertilit( is leading to #ero or negati2e pop"lation growth.
S"ch examples ha2e gi2en c"rrenc( to the sill( notion that o2erpop"lation is no longer an iss"e &
that, if an(thing, it is a slowdown in pop"lation growth that we sho"ld $e worr(ing a$o"t. %"t while
human num4ers are 0alling in some &arts o0 the -orl9G in others the6 are e%&lo9ing. !he &o&ulation o0 the 7ul0 States -ill
9ou4le in aroun9 +* 6ears A against a 4a,2groun9 o0 nearl6 ,om&lete 9e&en9en,6 on a singleG 9e&leting natural resour,e.
8gain, despite hina!s admira$le one&child polic(, its pop"lation will go on growing for m"ch of this
cent"r(. Olo$all(, the human &o&ulation -ill ,ontinue to rise 0or at least a ,entur6 A e)en i0 -orl9-i9e 0ertilit6 0alls to
re&la,ement le)el tomorro-. 3n )/+-, there were aro"nd two $illion h"mans on the planet. 'oda(, there
are a$o"t six $illion. B2en on conser2ati2e proFections, there will $e nearl( eight $illion $( *-L-.
$ight 4illion &eo&le ,annot 4e maintaine9 -ithout 9esolating the earth. !o9a6G e)er6one as&ires to li)e a0ter the 0ashion o0 the
-orl9's a00luent minorit6. !hat requires -orl9-i9e in9ustrialiLation A as a result o0 -hi,h the human e,ologi,al 0oot&rint on the
earth -ill 4e 9ee&er than it has e)er 4een. 3f the li2ing standards of rich co"ntries can $e replicated
worldwide, it is onl( $( making f"rther large inroads into the planetar( patrimon( of $iological
wealth. Gainforests are the last great reser2oirs of $iodi2ersit(, $"t the( will ha2e to $e
cleared and t"rned o2er to h"man settlement or food prod"ction. ;hat is left of wilderness
in the world will $e made o2er to green desert. !his is a 4lea2 enough &ros&e,tG 4ut -hat's -orse is that it is
a &ath 0rom -hi,h there is no turning 4a,2. I0 a human &o&ulation o0 this siLe is to 4e 2e&t in e%isten,eG it must e%&loit the
&lanet's 9-in9ling resour,es e)er more intensi)el6. In e00e,tG humans -ill turn the &lanet into an e%tension o0 themsel)es.
:hen the6 loo2 a4out the -orl9G the6 -ill 0in9 nothing 4ut their o-n 9etritus.
Population Decrease Key
T(e 2S needs to promote a population decrease or o,erpopulation will 1e
ine,ita1le
Gra+ C#2 =>ohn, professor of B"ropean tho"ght at the 5ondon School of Bconomics, ?;ill 4"manit(
%e 5eft 4ome 8loneQA, Kew Statesman, 8"g H-, *--* http://www.greatchange.org/o2&
gra(,homePalone.htmlC
S"mming "p his 2iew of the f"t"re, ;ilson writes: 18t $est, an en2ironmental $ottleneck is coming
in the *)st cent"r(. 3t will ca"se the "nfolding of a new kind of dri2en $( en2ironmental change. @r
perhaps an "nfolding on a glo$al scale of the old kind of histor(, which saw the collapse of regional
ci2ili#ations, going $ack to the earliest in histor(, in northern ,esopotamia, and s"$se9"entl(
Bg(pt, then the ,a(an and man( others scattered across all the inha$ited continents except
8"stralia.1 ;ilson!s 1 ne- 2in9 o0 histor6H -oul9 in)ol)e a -orl9-i9e re)olution in attitu9es an9 &oli,ies. !his -oul9
in,lu9e uni)ersal a,,ess 46 -omen to the means o0 ,ontrolling their 0ertilit6 , a$andonment of the $elief that there is
a nat"ral right to ha2e as man( children as (o" like, and a $asic shift in attit"des to the
en2ironment in which it is accepted that o"r fate and that of the rest of life on earth are insepara$l(
linked. 'hese are the minim"m conditions for the new kind of histor( of which ;ilson writes.
Unfort"natel(, one has onl( to list these conditions to see that the( are "nreali#a$le. !here ,annot 4e a
sustaina4le 4alan,e 4et-een natural resour,es an9 human nee9s so long as the num4er o0 &eo&le ,ontinues to in,reaseG 4ut a
gro-ing &o&ulation ,an 4e seen as a -ea&on . ,an( 7alestinians and 6"rds 2iew ha2ing large families as a
s"r2i2al strateg(. In a -orl9 ,ontaining man6 intra,ta4le ethni, ,on0li,tsG there is unli2el6 to 4e a 4enign 9emogra&hi,
transition to a lo-er 4irth rate. !he e%am&les -e ha)e o0 so,ieties in -hi,h &o&ulation has 9e,line9 in the a4sen,e o0 a 4ig
so,ial ,risis ,annot 4e re&li,ate9 -orl9-i9e . 8 polic( of #ero pop"lation growth re9"ires "ni2ersal
a2aila$ilit( of contraception and a$ortion, and limits on the freedom to $reed; $"t the a"thorit( that
co"ld impose these conditions does not exist. 8umans ha)e a long histor6 o0 mass 2illingG 4ut ha)e rarel6 ,hosen
to regulate their num4ers intelligentl6 an9 humanel6. I0 &o&ulation 9e,linesG it -ill 4e as a result o0 -arG geno,i9e or the 2in9 o0
generaliLe9 so,ial ,olla&se that has ta2en &la,e in &ostA,ommunist <ussia. 'he increase in h"man pop"lation that is
"nder wa( is "nprecedented and "ns"staina$le. 3t cannot $e proFected into the f"t"re. ,ore than
likel(, it will $e c"t short $( the classical ,alth"sian forces of 1old histor(1. Crom a human &oint o0 )ie-G
this is an e%tremel6 9is,om0orting &ros&e,tI 4ut at least it 9is&els the nightmare o0 an age o0 solitu9e. !he loss o0 4io9i)ersit6 is
realG an9 )er6 o0ten irre)ersi4le. ?ut -e nee9 not 0ear a -orl9 ma9e 9esolate 46 human &roli0eration. :e ,an rel6 on 8omo
sa&iens to s&are us that 0ate.
Population Decrease Key
Action to lower t(e population is needed
Tome& C#/ =Jladimir, Geporter for religio"stolerance.org, ?'he impairment of the
ecosphere d"e to
h"man acti2ities: war, o2erpop"lation....A, @ntario ons"ltants on Geligio"s 'olerance,
*--R&>U5&-*, http://www.religio"stolerance.org/tomek-..htmC
All these are s6m&toms o0 a serious glo4al &ro4lem -hi,h is ma9e mu,h -orse 46 the 6earl6 a99ition o0 8* million ne- &eo&le
to the o)erall &o&ulation . 'he sheer n"m$er of people on earth is alread( past what 7a"l Bhrlich has
called the !carr(ing capacit(! of the planet. A )ast num4ers o0 &eo&le are 4e,oming malnourishe9G marginaliLe9G
an9 9isa00e,te9 11G an9 there is an in,rease9 e,ologi,al 9estru,tion. + !he &resent in,reases in human num4ers an9 in &er
,a&ita ,onsum&tion has a ,onsi9era4le im&a,t on the en)ironmentG 9isru&ting e,os6stems an9 9e&leting resour,es )+ & F"st
a$o"t e2er( step in the direction of red"cing the eDects of ae"ence and technolog( is negated $(
pop"lation growth. !he more &eo&le are on earthG the more resour,es are nee9e9 to maintain themG an9 the greater is the
amount o0 the -asteA&ro9u,ts es,a&ing into the atmos&here. !here is &ro4a4l6 no &ra,ti,al -a6 to a,hie)e an im&ro)ement in
this res&e,t -ithout &o&ulation ,ontrol. For example, as to the emission of greenho"se gases, e2er( person
who li2es makes a contri$"tion to the @* in the atmosphere $( $"rning wood, coal, or oil. ... Small
increases per person can ha2e an enormo"s eDect in hina and 3ndia with h"ge pop"lations
there. 'he report of the l"$ of Gome stated alread( in )/.* that !with the existing trend
in pop"lation, food prod"ction, ind"striali#ation, reso"rce "se, and pop"lation contin"ing
"nchanged, limits to growth wo"ld $e reached within a cent"r(!. !o a,hie)e Lero &o&ulation gro-th
in the t-ent6A0irst ,entur6 e)en in the most 9e)elo&e9 ,ountriesG 4irthrates -oul9 ha)e to 0all -ell 4elo- re&la,ement le)els.
!he reason 0or the &o&ulation momentum is the relati)e 6outh o0 the gro-ing &o&ulation. !he ,urrent situation is -ell
9emonstrate9 on the &o&ulation o0 the >hili&&inesG the islands of the archipelago $eing now one of the most
densel( pop"lated areas in the world with ).H persons per s9"are kilometre. R %( )/R- the
pop"lation of the 7hilippines was R million people. %( )/+/ it had F"mped to )/.H million; )/.- saw
the pop"lation pass the H:.L million mark, and in )/:/ it was estimated to $e RH.: million. 3t was .-
million in )//), and since L-N of the people are "nder the age of ):, the 0g"re will most pro$a$l(
shoot past )-- million shortl( after the (ear *-)-. ,eanwhile, the mangro)e s-am&s are 4eing 9estro6e9G an9
8*J o0 the ,oral ree0sG -hi,h are among the ri,hest e,os6stems on the &lanetG ha)e 4een se)erel6 9amage9. 8 third of the
soil is se2erel( damaged, two thirds are partl( damaged, and the rain forest that once co2ered o2er
/-N of the area will, it seems, soon $e totall( gone & onl( )-N s"r2i2es now. )L 3n )/::, a atholic
$ishop in the 7hilippines presented a doc"ment called ;hat is 4appening in @"r %ea"tif"l 5andQ to
the national meeting of all the $ishops of the 7hilippines. 'he( appro2ed it, $"t onl( after taking o"t
the statement on pop"lation, which was 2ital. 'his diminished the importance of the doc"ment and
showed the rel"ctance of the atholic h"rch to deal with the pop"lation pro$lem, e2en tho"gh
o2erpop"lation is one of the most disastro"s realities facing the 7hilippines and the planet. >o&ulation
&ressures -ill not go a-a6 -ith our re0usal to 0a,e them. Unless -e sol)e the &ro4lem o0 o)er&o&ulationG all 0uture
generations -ill 4e im&o)erishe9. :here are the ,hil9ren an9 0uture generations going to gro- 0oo9 that the6 -ill nee9 0or
their e%&an9ing num4ersU Cor the sa2e o0 0uture generationsG -e nee9 to 'lo-er &o&ulationG alter ,onsum&tion le)elsG an9
&romote more resour,eAe00i,ient te,hnologies'. )R ;e alread( know m"ch of what is needed in order to sol2e
the pro$lem of o2erpop"lation, $"t -e are limiting oursel)es to e%hortations an9 &romotion o0 general i9eas. At the
minimumG e%,hange o0 i9eas on &o&ulation ,ontrolG 0amil6 &lanningG an9 o4sta,les to it shoul9 4e en,ourage9 a,ross ,ulturalG
religious an9 &oliti,al 4oun9aries . 'he present polic( of fertilit( control, promoted $( the leadership in the
atholic h"rch, ma( not $e reall( pro&life when looked at from a wider angle.
2NCUS Key Wall
2S o,ers(oot aBects t(e rest o0 t(e world and policies to restrain population set a
precedent. I0 we sol,e 2S population control weRll sa,e t(e world 0rom t(e crunc(.
2S go,ernment is &e+ to population control
"(rlic( et al :4 =7a"l G., %ing 7rofessor of 7op"lation St"dies and 7rofessor of %iological
Sciences at Stanford Uni2ersit(, 8nne 4. Bhrlich, Senior Gesearch 8ssociate in the
Department of %iological Sciences of Stanford Uni2ersit(, and Oretchen . Dail(, %ing
3nterdisciplinar( Gesearch Scientist at Stanford Uni2ersit(, ?'he Stork and 'he 7lowA
p.LRC
!he most ,ru,ial &o&ulation &oli,6 0or the Unite9 Statesto a9o&t is one 0o,use9 on sol)ing its o-n &o&ulation &ro4lem.
'he0rst step =and 9"ite possi$l( the lastC sho"ld $e for the federal go2ernment to start an
ed"cational campaign aro"nd the slogan patriotic 8mericans stop at two. !he ,am&aign also
might use9 0or another slogan A H<eturn to the 9a6s o0 a 4etter Ameri,a.P It -oul9 ta2e a9)antage o0 the general nostalgia 0or a
smallerG sim&le so,iet6 an9 &erha&s generate su&&ort 0or an announ,e9 goal o0 re9u,ing U.S. &o&ulation siL e to aro"nd
the ;orld ;ar 33 0g"re ot )H- million =half the )//L si#eC. 'he $asic approach wo"ld $e
simple: lower the ann"al n"m$er of $irths and immigrants to less than the n"m$er of
deaths and emigrants. I0 the &resi9ent an9 his minions in the e%e,uti)e 4ran,h as -ell as lea9ers in Congress got
4ehin9 itG -e sus&e,t that alone -oul9 su00i,e to get the U.S. !C< -ell 4elo- re&la,ement le)el. 3f it were not eno"gh,
then the tax laws co"ld $e "sed to pro2ide tax penalties for o2erreprod"cers. 'hese co"ld
$e grad"ated, so the rich =who ca"se disproportionatel( hea2( impacts on the
en2ironmentC paid the most per child. 'ax penalties for poor people who ha2e large
families wo"ld need to $e compensated $( programs to protect their children from "nd"e
hardship. %"t penalties wo"ld nonetheless $e re9"ired to reinforce the message that
ha2ing more than two children is "n&8merican. I0 -e e%&e,t &oor &eo&le in nations -here ,hil9ren are
e,onomi, assets =net contri$"tors to ho"sehold income and pro2iders of social sec"rit( stopC at
t-oG the )er6 least Ameri,ans ,an 9o is the same.
Aowering consumption and population in t(e 2nited States is &e+
"(rlic( et al :4 =7a"l G., %ing 7rofessor of 7op"lation St"dies and 7rofessor of %iological
Sciences at Stanford Uni2ersit(, 8nne 4. Bhrlich, Senior Gesearch 8ssociate in the
Department of %iological Sciences of Stanford Uni2ersit(, and Oretchen . Dail(, %ing
3nterdisciplinar( Gesearch Scientist at Stanford Uni2ersit(, ?'he Stork and 'he 7lowA
p.*.C
;ith regard to pop"lation, in9ustrialiLe9 nations face two important tasks. First, the( shoul9
o00i,iall6 a9)o,ate an9 &romote lo- 0ertilit6 0or themsel)esG so their &o&ulations ,an soon sto& gro-ing an9 4egin slo-l6
shrin2ing. $)er6 4irth a)erte9 in a ri,h ,ountr6 hel&s &reser)e $arth's li0eAsu&&ort s6stems roughl6 se)en times as e00e,ti)el6
as one a)erte9 in a less 9e)elo&e9 ,ountr6. 'he second o$ligation is to pro2ide h"mane assistance to
de2eloping nations that desire help in limiting the si#e of their pop"lations. >o&ulation shrin2age
is es&e,iall6 im&ortant in the most o)er&o&ulate9 nation o0 all o0 themG the Unite9 States . ;ith that, third largest
pop"lation =more than a 9"arter $illion peopleC, the fastest growing pop"lation of the
maFor ind"striali#ed nations, and with one of the highest per&capita impacts on the
en2ironment =a$o"t ele2en times that of an a2erage de2eloping co"ntr(C, lo-ering the &o&ulation
siLe in the U.S. shoul9 ha)e to& &riorit6G along -ith lo-ering ,onsum&tion le)els.+L Keither is $e(ond the realm
of possi$ilit(.
2NC US Key Wall
It must 1e up to industrialiMed nations li&e t(e 2S to deal wit( t(e population
crisis
;e!e$ 0, =hris, former Kew Mork 'imes correspondent, ?;e 8re %reeding @"rsel2es to BxtinctionA,
,ar :, *--/
http://www.tr"thdig.com/report/item/*--/-H-/PwePareP$reedingPo"rsel2esPtoPextinction/C
All measures to th-art the 9egra9ation an9 9estru,tion o0 our e,os6stem -ill 4e useless i0 -e 9o not ,ut &o&ulation gro-th.
%( *-L-, if we contin"e to reprod"ce at the c"rrent rate, the planet will ha2e $etween : $illion and
)- $illion people, according to a recent U.K. forecast. 'his is a L- percent increase. 8nd 6et
go)ernmentA,ommissione9 re)ie-s, s"ch as the Stern report in %ritain, 9o not mention the -or9 &o&ulation. %ooks
and doc"mentaries that deal with the climate crisis, incl"ding 8l OoreIs ?8n 3ncon2enient 'r"th,A
fail to disc"ss the danger of pop"lation growth. !his omission is o99G gi)en that a 9ou4ling in &o&ulationG e)en i0
-e ,ut 4a,2 on the use o0 0ossil 0uelsG shut 9o-n all our ,oalA4urning &o-er &lants an9 4uil9 seas o0 -in9 tur4inesG -ill &lunge
us into an age o0 e%tin,tion and desolation "nseen since the end of the ,eso#oic era, RL million (ears
ago, when the dinosa"rs disappeared. :e are e%&erien,ing an a,,elerate9 o4literation o0 the &lanet;s li0eA0ormsan
estimate9 8G76* s&e,ies 9ie o00 &er 6ear4e,auseG sim&l6 &utG there are too man6 &eo&le. Most o0 these e%tin,tions are the
9ire,t result o0 the e%&an9ing nee9 0or energ6G housingG 0oo9 an9 other resour,es. 'he Mangt#e Gi2er dolphin, 8tlantic
gra( whale, ;est 8frican $lack rhino, ,erriamIs elk, alifornia gri##l( $ear, sil2er tro"t, $l"e pike
and d"sk( seaside sparrow are all 2ictims of h"man o2erpop"lation. 7op"lation growth, as B.@.
;ilson sa(s, is ?the monster on the land.A Species are 2anishing at a rate of a h"ndred to a
tho"sand times faster than the( did $efore the arri2al of h"mans. I0 the ,urrent rate o0 e%tin,tion ,ontinuesG
8omo sa&iens -ill 4e one o0 the 0e- li0eA0orms le0t on the &lanetG its mem4ers s,ram4ling )iolentl6 among themsel)es 0or
-aterG 0oo9G 0ossil 0uels an9 &erha&s air until the6 too 9isa&&ear. 4"manit(, ;ilson sa(s, is lea2ing the eno#oic,
the age of mammals, and entering the Bremo#oicSthe era of solit"de. 8s long as the Barth is
2iewed as the personal propert( of the h"man race, a $elief em$raced $( e2er(one from $orn&again
hristians to ,arxists to free&market economists, we are destined to soon inha$it a $iological
wasteland. !he &o&ulations in in9ustrialiLe9 nations maintain their li0est6les 4e,ause the6 ha)e the militar6 an9 e,onomi,
&o-er to ,onsume a 9is&ro&ortionate share o0 the -orl9;s resour,es. !he Unite9 States alone go44les u& a4out +5 &er,ent o0
the oil &ro9u,e9 in the -orl9 ea,h 6ear. !hese nations )ie- their sta4le or e)en Lero gro-th 4irthrates as su00i,ient. It has 4een
le0t to 9e)elo&ing ,ountries to ,o&e -ith the emergent &o&ulation ,risis . 3ndia, Bg(pt, So"th 8frica, 3ran, 3ndonesia,
"$a and hina, whose one&child polic( has pre2ented the addition of +-- million people, ha2e all
tried to instit"te pop"lation control meas"res. %"t on most o0 the &lanetG &o&ulation gro-th is e%&lo9ing. 'he
U.K. estimates that *-- million women worldwide do not ha2e access to contraception. 'he
pop"lation of the 7ersian O"lf states, along with the 3sraeli&occ"pied territories, will do"$le in two
decades, a rise that will omino"sl( coincide with precipito"s peak oil declines. !he o)er&o&ulate9
regions o0 the glo4e -ill ra)age their lo,al en)ironmentsG ,utting 9o-n rain0orests an9 the 0e- remaining -il9erness areasG in a
9es&erate 4i9 to gro- 0oo9. An9 the 9e&letion an9 9estru,tion o0 resour,es -ill e)entuall6 ,reate an o)er&o&ulation &ro4lem in
in9ustrialiLe9 nations as -ell. !he resour,es that in9ustrialiLe9 nations ,onsi9er their 4irthright -ill 4e,ome har9er an9 more
e%&ensi)e to o4tain . Gising water le2els on coastlines, which ma( s"$merge coastal nations s"ch as %angladesh, will disr"pt agric"lt"re and
displace millions, who will attempt to Eee to areas on the planet where life is still possi$le. 'he rising temperat"res and dro"ghts ha2e alread(
$eg"n to destro( crop lands in 8frica, 8"stralia, 'exas and alifornia. 'he eDects of this de2astation will 0rst $e felt in places like %angladesh,
$"t will soon spread within o"r $orders. Footprint data s"ggests that, $ased on c"rrent lifest(les, the s"staina$le pop"lation of the United
6ingdomSthe n"m$er of people the co"ntr( co"ld feed, f"el and s"pport from its own $iological capacit(Sis a$o"t ): million. 'his means that
in an age of extreme scarcit(, some +H million people in Oreat %ritain wo"ld not $e a$le to s"r2i2e. ()er&o&ulation -ill 4e,ome a serious
threat to the )ia4ilit6 o0 man6 in9ustrialiLe9 states the instant the ,hea& ,onsum&tion o0 the -orl9;s resour,es ,an no longer 4e
maintaine9. !his moment ma6 4e ,loser than -e thin2.
2NC US Key Wall
Americans o,erconsume resources t(reatening 0uture generations
.earce 0, =Fred, en2ironment cons"ltant for Kew Scientist maga#ine and a"thor,
?ons"mption Dwarfs 7op"lation: 8s ,ain Bn2ironmental 'hreatA, Male Bn2ironment HR-,
8pril )H, *--/, http://eHR-.(ale.ed"/content/feat"re.mspQidY*)+-C
3tIs the great ta$oo, 3 hear man( en2ironmentalists sa(. 7op"lation growth is the dri2ing force
$ehind o"r wrecking of the planet, $"t we are afraid to disc"ss it. 3t so"nds like a no&$rainer. ,ore
people m"st ine2ita$l( $e $ad for the en2ironment, taking more reso"rces and ca"sing more
poll"tion, dri2ing the planet e2er farther $e(ond its carr(ing capacit(. %"t hold on. 'his is a terri$l(
con2enient arg"ment S Oo)erA,onsumersP in ri,h ,ountries ,an 4lame Oo)erA4ree9ersP in 9istant lan9s 0or the state o0
the &lanet. ?ut -hat are the 0a,tsU !he -orl9;s &o&ulation qua9ru&le9 to si% 4illion &eo&le 9uring the +*th ,entur6. It is still
rising an9 ma6 rea,h 4illion 46 +*5*. Det 0or at least the &ast ,entur6G rising &erA,a&ita in,omes ha)e outstri&&e9 the rising
hea9 ,ount se)eral times o)er. 8nd while incomes donIt translate precisel( into increased reso"rce "se
and poll"tion, the ,orrelation is 9istressingl6 strong. ,oreo2er, most o0 the e%tra ,onsum&tion has 4een in ri,h
,ountries that ha)e long sin,e gi)en u& a99ing su4stantial num4ers to their &o&ulation. ?6 almost an6 measureG a small
&ro&ortion o0 the -orl9;s &eo&le ta2e the ma=orit6 o0 the -orl9;s resour,es an9 &ro9u,e the ma=orit6 o0 its &ollution. 'ake
car$on dioxide emissions S a meas"re of o"r impact on climate $"t also a s"rrogate for fossil f"el
cons"mption. Stephen 7acala, director of the 7rinceton Bn2ironment 3nstit"te, calc"lates that the
worldIs richest half&$illion people S thatIs a4out 7 &er,ent o0 the glo4al &o&ulation are res&onsi4le 0or 5*
&er,ent o0 the -orl9;s ,ar4on 9io%i9e emissions. Mean-hile the &oorest 5* &er,ent are res&onsi4le 0or =ust 7 &er,ent o0
emissions. 8ltho"gh o2ercons"mption has a profo"nd eDect on greenho"se gas emissionsG the im&a,ts o0
our high stan9ar9 o0 li)ing e%ten9 4e6on9 turning u& the tem&erature o0 the &lanet. Cor a -i9er &ers&e,ti)e o0 humanit6;s
e00e,ts on the &lanet's li0e su&&ort s6stemsG the 4est a)aila4le measure is the Oe,ologi,al 0oot&rintGP which estimates the
area of land re9"ired to pro2ide each of "s with food, clothing, and other reso"rces, as well as to
soak "p o"r poll"tion. 'his anal(sis has its methodological pro$lems, $"t its comparisons $etween
nations are 0rm eno"gh to $e "sef"l. 'he( show that s"staining the lifest(le of the a)erage Ameri,an
ta2es .5 he,taresG -hile Australians an9 Cana9ians require 7.8 an9 7.1 he,tares res&e,ti)el6I ?ritonsG 5.1 he,taresI 7ermansG
4.+I an9 the 3a&aneseG 4.. !he -orl9 a)erage is +.7 he,tares. China is still 4elo- that 0igure at +.1G -hile In9ia an9 most o0
A0ri,a =where the maForit( of f"t"re world pop"lation growth will take placeW are at or 4elo- 1.*. !he
Unite9 States al-a6s gets single9 out. ?ut 0or goo9 reason" It is the -orl9;s largest ,onsumer. Ameri,ans ta2e the greatest share
o0 most o0 the -orl9;s ma=or ,ommo9ities" ,ornG ,o00eeG ,o&&erG lea9G Lin,G aluminumG ru44erG oil see9sG oilG an9 natural gas.
Cor man6 othersG Ameri,ans are the largest &erA,a&ita ,onsumers. 3n ?s"per&si#e&meA land, 8mericans go44le u& more
than 1+* 2ilograms o0 meat a 6ear &er &ersonG ,om&are9 to =ust 6 2ilos in In9iaG 0or instan,e. 3 do not den( that fast&
rising pop"lations can create serio"s local en2ironmental crises thro"gh o2ergra#ing, destr"cti2e
farming and 0shing, and deforestation. ,( arg"ment here is that 2iewed at the glo$al scale, it is
o)er,onsum&tion that has 4een 9ri)ing humanit6;s im&a,ts on the &lanet;s )ital li0eAsu&&ort s6stems 9uring at least the &ast
,entur6. %"t what of the f"t"reQ
2NC US Key Wall
T(e 2S population is a t(reat to t(e (ealt( o0 people worldwide
Daily an! (hrlich, U4 of 2alifornia >BerKley+ an! *tanfor! U4, ,#
V7ret,hen C an9 Anne 8G <es&onse to ?artlett an9 /6t-a2G 3ul6 15G >o&ulation an9 $n)ironment" A
3ournal o0 Inter9is,i&linar6 Stu9ies Solume 16G Num4er 6G 3ul6 15 htt&"##9ieo00.org#&age8.htmW
8mong maFor ind"striali#ed nations, the United States has the largest pop"lation si#e, the highest
total fertilit( rate, and the highest per&capita rates of energ( "se =7G%, )//+; ;G3, )//+C. 'he
en2ironmental degradation ca"sed directl( and indirectl( $( this set of circ"mstances is
"ns"staina$le, a threat to the f"t"re health and well$eing of all h"man $eings, and cries o"t for
remedial action =Bhrlich X Bhrlich, )//*; Dail( X Bhrlich, )//*; 4all et al., )//+; Dail( X Bhrlich,
)//LC. 4alting U.S. pop"lation growth is therefore a critical step toward sec"ring 8mericans and
the rest of the world from pro$lems generated or exacer$ated $( o2erpop"lation =Dail( et al.,
)//+C. 8chie2ing #ero pop"lation growth =W7OC in the United States, altho"gh easier than in most
parts of the world, in2ol2es diDic"lt social choices re9"iring ed"cated p"$lic de$ate. 3n a tho"ght&
pro2oking article, %artlett and 5(twak =)//LC present a series of alternati2es for reaching W7O in
the U.S. immediatel(. 'he simplicit( of their calc"lations makes the polic( implications all the more
stark. For example, to stop growth instantl( witho"t changing the )//* le2el of immigration, $irths
wo"ld ha2e to $e restricted to slightl( less t#an one c#ild for every t.o couples& B2en with #ero
immigration =and contin"ed emigrationC, the U.S. pop"lation wo"ld ha2e to red"ce its fertilit( to
one child per famil(. For the United States to transform itself into a s"staina$le enterprise, it m"st
face s9"arel( these sorts of polic( options, e2en witho"t tr(ing for an immediate halt to U.S.
pop"lation growth. Bxamination of these options prompts the 9"estion: ;hat kind of pop"lation and
immigration polic( sho"ld a nation like the United States ha2eQ %artlett and 5(twak =)//LC ha2e
laid o"t the n"m$ers nicel(, $"t close their article $efore addressing how to go a$o"t 1lowering the
fertilit( rate in the United States and stopping or red"cing immigration.13n o"r opinion, policies for
controlling the U.S. pop"lation si#e and composition m"st $e form"lated in a glo$al context and
ine2ita$l( in2ol2e consideration of a diDic"lt s"ite of ethical and practical iss"es. ;e 2iew toda(!s
"nprecedented mass migrations as a s(mptom of a m"ch deeper complex of pro$lems and 9"estion
the assertion that 13t is within the power of an( nation to reg"late immigration into its territor(1
=%artlett X 5(twak, )//LC. ertainl(, immigration co"ld $e greatl( slowed with expensi2e and
draconian meas"res, $"t it seems politicall( nai2e to $elie2e that meas"res s"Dicientl( harsh to
achie2e near&#ero immigration wo"ld $e politicall( feasi$le in the United States in the near f"t"re.
Ultimatel(, the s"ccess of an( polic( to control the si#e and composition of the U.S. pop"lation will
hinge "pon alle2iation of the "nderl(ing ca"ses of o2erpop"lation and mass migration.
XtnUS Key
Eic( nations li&e t(e 2S are responsi1le 0or consumption pro1lems
?ager C#1 =;end(, 8l$right Seed ompan(, ?@2erpop"lation 2s. 'he ;orld: 8 0ght to the
deathQA, http://www.al$rightseed.com/o2erpop"lation.htmC
'here was impro2ement in $oth sanitation and medical science, as well as the a$ilit( to increase
food prod"ction. ;ith the Barth!s pop"lation proFected to F"mp $( the (ear *-L- to nearl( )H-
million peopleSthe e9"i2alent of adding fo"r more states the si#e of aliforniaSthere -ill nee9 to 4e 6et
another in,rease in e00orts to meet the nee9s 0or 0oo9G -aterG health ,areG te,hnolog6 an9 e9u,ation . 7a"l and 8nne
Bhrlich, a"thors of 'he 7op"lation Bxplosion =)//-, Simon and Sch"sterC, sa( the &ro4lem lies in the 0a,t
that all o0 the ri,h nations are o)er&o&ulate9 4e,ause the6 are ra&i9l6 9ra-ing 9o-n sto,2s o0 resour,es aroun9 the -orl9.
Des&ite the ,ommon i9ea that the larger &o&ulations o0 &oorer nations are res&onsi4le 0or the 9e,imation o0 natural resour,esG it
is the &eo&le o0 the less &o&ulous ri,her nations -ho are the su&er,onsumer s. 1'he relati2el( small pop"lation of
rich people,1 sa( the Bhrlichs, 1acco"nt for two&thirds of glo$al en2ironmental destr"ction, as
meas"red $( energ( "se.1 8ccording to the Bhrlichs, Hthe Unite9 States &oses the most serious threat to our li0e
su&&ort s6stem.H Ameri,ansG -ho ,onstitute onl6 5J o0 the -orl9s &o&ulationG also ,onsume +4J o0 its energ6G meaning ea,h
resi9ent o0 the Unite9 States uses as mu,h ,ommer,ial energ6 as 1* &eo&le in the 9e)elo&ing -orl9. Cor e%am&leG the a)erage
Ameri,anG ,onsumes 15 gallons o0 -ater &er 9a6 -hile more than hal0 o0 the -orl9's &o&ulation li)es on +5 gallons.
Americans are a 1igger drain on t(e en,ironment t(an an+ ot(er population
Davi$ 90 =;a(ne, ?@2erpop"lated 8mericaA, 'he Kew Gep"$lic ;riter, )/.- >an )-,
http://$ooks.google.com/$ooksQidYBsx5KB&Mr8oXpgY78)..XlpgY78)..Xd9Y
N**o2erpop"lation
N**h"nitedhstateshreso"rcehcons"mptionXso"rceY$lXotsYK$ka#P+lB2XsigYhB#/(k9d
i-UcFt+3Sd@5s7eS_'8XhlYenXeiYt&
LUS"(BW7al8fe9fFr8XsaYUXoiY$ookPres"ltXctYres"ltXresn"mY*C
I 9e0ine as most seriousl6 o)er&o&ulate9 that nation -hose &eoA &le 46 )irtue o0 their num4ers an9 a,ti)ities are most ra&i9l6
9eA ,reasing the a4ilit6 o0 the lan9 to su&&ort human li0e. :ith our large &o&ulationG our a00luen,eG an9 our te,hnologi,al
monstrositiesG the Unite9 States -ins 0irst &la,e 46 a su4stantial margin. /ets ,om&are the Unite9 States to In9iaG for
example. ;e ha2e *-H million people, whereas she has L+- million on m"ch less land. %"t look at
the impact of people on the land. !he a)erage In9ian eats his 9ail6 0e- ,u&s o0 ri,e =or perhaps wheat, whose
prod"ction on 8merican farms contri$"ted to o"r ) percent per (ear drain in 9"alit( of o"r acti2e
farmlandC, 9ra-s his 4u,2et o0 -ater 0rom the ,ommunal -ellG an9 slee&s in a mu9 hut. 3n his dail( ro"nds to gather
cow d"ng to $"rn to cook his rice and warm his feet, his footsteps, along with those of millions of
his co"ntr(men, help $ring a$o"t a slow deterioration of the a$ilit( of land to s"pport people. 8is
,ontri4ution to the 9estru,tion o0 the lan9 is minimal. An Ameri,anG on the other han9G ,an 4e e%&e,te9 to 9estro6 a &ie,e o0
lan9 on -hi,h he 4uil9s a homeG garageG an9 9ri)e-a6. 8e -ill ,ontri4ute his share to the 14+ million tones o0 smo2e an9
0umesG se)en million =un2e9 ,arsG +* million tons o0 &a&erG 48 4illion ,ansG an9 +6 4illion 4ottles the o)er4ur9ene9
en)ironment must a4sor4 ea,h 6ear. !o run his air ,on9itioner -e -ill stri&Amine a @entu,26 hillsi9eG &ush the 9irt an9 slate
9o-n into the streamG an9 4urn ,oal in a &o-er generatorG whose smokestack contri$"tes to a pl"me of smoke
massi2e eno"gh to ca"se clo"d seeding and premat"re precip& itation from O"lf winds which sho"ld
$e irrigating the wheat farms of ,innesota. In his li0etime he -ill &ersonall6 &ollute 1 million gallons o0 -aterG an9
in9ustr6 an9 agri,ulture -ill use ten times this mu,h -ater in his 4ehal0 . 'o pro2ide these needs the U.S. 8rm(
orps of Bngi& neers will $"ild dams and Eood farmland. 4e will also "se *),--- gallons of leaded
gasoline containing $oron, drink *:,--- po"nds of milk, and eat )-,--- po"nds of meat. 'he latter
is prod"ced and s9"andered in a life pattern "nknown to 8sians. 8 steer on a ;est& ern range eats
plants containing minerals necessar( for plant life. Some of these are incorporated into the $od( of
the steer which is later shipped for sla"ghter. 8fter $eing eaten $( man these n"trients are E"shed
down the toilet into the ocean or $"ried in the cemeter(, the s"rface of which is cl"ttered with
$o"lders called tom$stones and has $een remo2ed from prod"cti2it(. !he result is a ,ontinual 9rain on the
&ro9u,ti)it6 o0 range lan9. A99 to this the erosion o0 o)ergraLe9 lan9sG an9 the e00e,ts o0 0alling -ater ta4le as -e mine
>leisto,ene 9e&osits o0 groun9-ater to irrigate to &ro9u,e 0oo9 0or more &eo&leG and we see wh( o"r land is d(ing far
more rapidl( than did the great ci2ili#ations of the ,iddle Bast, which experi& enced the same c(cle.
'he a2erage 3ndian citi#en, whose fecal mate& rial goes $ack to the land, has $"t a min"te fraction
of the destr"cti2e eDect on the land that the ae"ent 8merican does.
Xtn-US Key
America is uniOuel+ worse 0or t(e en,ironment t(an ot(er regions
5o0ler 04 =>onathon, 8ssociated 7ress ;riter, ?ons"mption of Geso"rces @"tstripping
7lanet!s 8$ilit( to opeA, 8ssociated 7ress, @cto$er *), *--+,
http://www.commondreams.org/headlines-+/)-*)&-*.htmC
OBKBJ8 & >eo&le are &lun9ering the -orl9's resour,es at a &a,e that outstri&s the &lanet's ,a&a,it6 to sustain li0e, the
en2ironmental gro"p ;;F said 'h"rsda(. 3n its reg"lar 5i2ing 7lanet Geport, the ;orld ;ide F"nd
for Kat"re said humans ,urrentl6 ,onsume +* &er,ent more natural resour,es than the earth ,an &ro9u,e. Consum&tion o0
0ossil 0uels su,h as ,oalG gas an9 oil in,rease9 46 almost 7** &er,ent 4et-een 161 an9 +**1, it said. %"t the &lanet is
una4le to mo)e as 0ast to a4sor4 the resulting ,ar4onA9io%i9e emissions that 9egra9e the earth's &rote,ti)e oLone la6er. 1;e
are spending nat"re!s capital faster than it can regenerate,1 said ;;F chief la"de ,artin,
la"nching the conser2ation $od(!s +-&page st"d(. 1;e are r"nning "p an ecological de$t which we
won!t $e a$le to pa( oD "nless go2ernments restore the $alance $etween o"r cons"mption of
nat"ral reso"rces and the earth!s a$ilit( to renew them.1 7op"lations of terrestrial, freshwater and
marine species fell on a2erage $( +- percent $etween )/.- and *---, the st"d( said. It ,ite9
9estru,tion o0 natural ha4itatsG &ollutionG o)er0ishing an9 the intro9u,tion 46 humans o0 nonnati)e animalsG su,h as ,ats an9
ratsG -hi,h o0ten 9ri)e out in9igenous s&e,ies. H!he question is ho- the -orl9's entire &o&ulation li)e -ith the resour,es o0
one &lanet ,1 said >onathan 5oh, one of the report!s a"thors. 'he st"d(, ;;F!s 0fth since )//:,
examines the 1ecological footprint1 & or en2ironmental impact & of the planet!s R.) $illion&strong
pop"lation. 'o calc"late the a2erage si#e of each person!s footprint, it meas"res land "se, poll"tion,
energ( cons"mption, and the le2el of car$on&dioxide emissions. !he im&a,t o0 an a)erage North Ameri,an is
9ou4le that o0 a $uro&eanG 4ut se)en times that o0 the a)erage Asian or A0ri,an . @2erall, the $iggest c"lprits are the
residents of the United 8ra$ Bmirates, followed $( the United States, 6"wait, 8"stralia and
Sweden. 'he least&damaging are residents of 8fghanistan, Somalia, 4aiti, 'aFikistan and
%angladesh. <i,h nations trea9 hea)il6 on &oorer ,ountriesG said ,athis ;acknagel, head of the Olo$al
Footprint Ketwork, a gro"ping incl"ding ;;F. Cor e%am&leG :estern 9eman9 0or o0 Asia's &alm oil an9 so64eans
0rom South Ameri,a has 0uele9 9estru,tion o0 natural ha4itats in those regions .
AT: Global Opop Overwhelms
'eople 1lame o,erpopulation in ot(er countries to 8usti0+ t(eir own
o,erconsumption* 1ut t(e+ are Sawed li0e1oat et(ics assumptions
'earce C#: =Fred, en2ironment cons"ltant for Kew Scientist maga#ine and a"thor,
?ons"mption Dwarfs 7op"lation: 8s ,ain Bn2ironmental 'hreatA, Male Bn2ironment HR-,
8pril )H, *--/, http://eHR-.(ale.ed"/content/feat"re.mspQidY*)+-C
Far from $allooning, ea,h generation -ill 4e smaller than the last. So the e,ologi,al 0oot&rint o0 0uture generations ,oul9
9iminish. !hat means -e ,an ha)e a shot at estimating the longAterm im&a,t o0 ,hil9ren 0rom 9i00erent ,ountries 9o-n the
generations. 'he $est anal(sis of this phenomenon 3 ha2e seen is $( 7a"l ,"rta"gh, a statistician at
@regon State Uni2ersit(. 4e recentl( calc"lated the climatic ?intergenerational legac(A of toda(Is
children. 4e ass"med c"rrent per&capita emissions and UK fertilit( proFections. 4e fo"nd that an e%tra
,hil9 in the Unite9 States to9a6 -illG 9o-n the generationsG &ro9u,e an e)entual ,ar4on 0oot&rint se)en times that o0 an e%tra
Chinese ,hil9G 46 times that o0 a >a2istan ,hil9G 55 times that o0 an In9ian ,hil9G an9 86 times that o0 a Nigerian ,hil9. @f
co"rse those ass"mptions ma( not pan o"t. 3 ha2e some con0dence in the pop"lation proFections,
$"t per&capita emissions of car$on dioxide will likel( rise in poor co"ntries for some time (et, e2en
in optimistic scenarios. %"t that is an issue o0 ,onsum&tionG not &o&ulation. In an6 e)entG it stri2es me as the height o0
hu4ris to 9o-ngra9e the ,ul&a4ilit6 o0 the ri,h -orl9;s en)ironmental 0oot&rint 4e,ause generations o0 &oor &eo&le not 6et 4orn
might one 9a6 get to 4e as ri,h an9 9estru,ti)e as us. ()er&o&ulation is not 9ri)ing en)ironmental 9estru,tion at the glo4al
le)elI o)er,onsum&tion is. $)er6 time -e tal2 a4out too man6 4a4ies in A0ri,a or In9iaG -e are 9en6ing that sim&le 0a,t. At
root this is an ethi,al issue . %ack in )/.+, the famo"s en2ironmental scientist Oarret 4ardin proposed
something he called ?life$oat ethicsA. 3n the modern, reso"rce&constrained world, he said, ?ea,h ri,h
nation ,an 4e seen as a li0e4oat 0ull o0 ,om&arati)el6 ri,h &eo&le. In the o,ean outsi9e ea,h li0e4oat s-im the &oor o0 the
-orl9G -ho -oul9 li2e to get in.A %"t there were, he said, not eno"gh places to go aro"nd. 3f an( were let
on $oard, there wo"ld $e chaos and all wo"ld drown. !he &eo&le in the li0e4oat ha9 a 9ut6 to their s&e,ies to 4e
sel0ish 5 to 2ee& the &oor out. 4ardinIs metaphor had a certain r"thless logic. :hat he omitte9 to mention -as
that ea,h o0 the &eo&le in the li0e4oat -as o,,u&6ing ten &la,esG -hereas the &eo&le in the -ater onl6 -ante9 one ea,h. 3
think that changes the arg"ment somewhat.
2S is &e+Pdecreasing population in ot(er countries wonCt c(ec& 1ac&
;inrich$on, *enior .roram Jfficer 0ith U1 pop"lation f"n!, ,4
=Don, 7"tting the $ite on h"man life: rapid h"man pop"lation growth is de2o"ring glo$al
nat"ral reso"rces, 3nternational ;ildlife ,aga#ine, Septem$er/@cto$er )//+,
http://www.dieoD.org/page)*-.htmC
7erhaps the most omino"s aspect of toda(!s "nprecedented growth is its persistence
despite falling ann"al pop"lation growth rates e2er(where except in parts of 8frica, the
,iddle Bast and So"th 8sia. 8nn"al glo$al pop"lation growth stands at ).R percent, down
from * percent in the earl( )/.-s. Similarl(, the total fertilit( rate =the a2erage n"m$er of children a woman is likel( to ha2eC
has dropped from a glo$al a2erage of six onl( three decades ago to slightl( more than three toda(. 7op"lation
contin"es to grow $eca"se of tremendo"s demographic moment"m. hina!s ann"al growth rate,
for example, is onl( ).* percent. 4owe2er, the co"ntr(!s h"ge pop"lation $aseS).* $illion peopleStranslates this relati2el(
small rate of growth into a net increase in hina!s pop"lation of aro"nd )L million (earl(. learl(, an( attempt to slow
pop"lation growth is a decades&long process aDected $( ad2ances in medicine, extended life spans and red"ced infant, child
and maternal mortalit(.
Carrying Capacity Limited
Water s(ortages limit carr+ing capacit+
'opulation !edia -enter* 2##.3 7op"lation ,edia enter 3nc, ='he ,agnit"de of
7op"lation Orowth and 3ts onse9"encesC
http://www.pop"lationmedia.org/iss"es/iss"es.html
8t the same time, shortages of water are at a crisis point in man( co"ntries. 8t least +--
million people li2e in regions with se2ere water shortages. %( the (ear *-L-, it is proFected
to $e approximatel( two $illion. ;ater ta$les on e2er( continent are falling, as water is
p"mped o"t at far greater rates than rainwater can replenish in order to pro2ide irrigation
for agric"lt"re. 3ndia, for example, is p"mping o"t its "ndergro"nd a9"ifers at twice the
rate of nat"ral replenishment. 4"mans are alread( "sing half of the glo$e!s prod"cts of
photos(nthesis and o2er half of all accessi$le fresh water. 5ong $efore h"man demand
do"$les again, the limits of the ecos(stemIs a$ilit( to s"pport people will $ecome
dramaticall( e2ident.
AT: population grows logistically
'opulation grows e)ponentiall+
"(rlic( and "(rlic(* :1 < 7rofessor of 7op"lation St"dies and 7rofessor of 7s(chological
St"dies and 7rofessor of %iological Sciences at Stanford Uni2ersit( < 7rofessor in the
Department of %iological Sciences and the enter for onser2ation of %iolog( at Stanford
Uni2ersit( < )//) =7a"l G. Bhrlich and 8nne 4. Bhrlich, ?'he 7op"lation BxplosionA, p. )RC
'he last decade or two has seen a slight slackening in the h"man pop"lation growth rate&a
slackening that has $een premat"rel( heralded as an 1end to the pop"lation explosion.1
'he slowdown has $een onl( from a peak ann"al growth rate of perhaps *.) percent in the
earl( )/R-s to a$o"t ).: percent in )//-. 'o p"t this change in perspecti2e, the
pop"lation!s do"$ling time has $een extended from thirt(&three (ears to thirt(&nine.
3ndeed, the world pop"lation did do"$le in the thirt(&se2en (ears from )/L- to )/:.. %"t
e2en if $irthrates contin"e to fall, the world pop"lation will contin"e to expand =ass"ming
that death rates don!t riseC, altho"gh at a slowl( slackening rate, for a$o"t another
cent"r(. Demographers think that growth will not end $efore the pop"lation has reached
)- $illion or more. So, e2en tho"gh $irthrates ha2e declined somewhat, 4omo sapiens is a
long wa( from ending its pop"lation explosion or a2oiding its conse9"ences. 3n fact, the
$iggest F"mp, from L to )- $illion in well "nder a cent"r(, is still ahead. %"t this does not
mean that growth co"ldn!t $e ended sooner, with a m"ch smaller pop"lation si#e, if weSall
of the world!s nationsSmade "p o"r minds to do it. 'he tro"$le is, man( of the world!s
leaders and perhaps most of the world!s people still don!t $elie2e that there are compelling
reasons to do so. 'he( are e2en less aware that if h"manit( fails to act, nat"re ma( end the
pop"lation explosion for "s&in 2er( "npleasant wa(s&well $efore )- $illion is reached.
'opulation is growing e)ponentiall+ now
To1ias* :$ < ecologist < )//: =,ichael 'o$ias, ?;orld ;ar 333: 7op"lation and %iosphere at
the Bnd of the ,illenni"mA, p **/& *H-C
3t is estimated that e2er( second more than twent(&eight people are $orn and ten die; that
e2er( ho"r nearl( ele2en tho"sand new$orns cr( o"t. Bach da( more than one million
h"man conceptions are $elie2ed to come a$o"t, accompanied $( some )L- tho"sand
a$ortions. 8mong those new$orns, e2er( da( thirt(&02e tho"sand will die $( star2ation,
twent(&six tho"sand of them children. ,eanwhile, e2er( twent(&fo"r ho"rs the pace of war
against the planet increases, sometimes in maFor aDronts, other times impercepti$l(, at
least $( o"r limited percept"al standards. 'hat war incl"des the loss of 0ft(&se2en million
tons of topsoil and eight( s9"are miles of tropical forest and the creation of se2ent( s9"are
miles of 2irt"all( lifeless desert e2er( da(. 8t c"rrent $irth and death rates, the world is
adding a 5os 8ngeles e2er( three weeks. 3f a2erage h"man growth rates were to contin"e
at their present co"rse =the so&called 1constant fertilit( 2ariant1 or rate of nat"ral increaseC
the world!s pop"lation wo"ld reach at least ten $illion $( the (ear *-H-, twent( $illion $(
*-.-, fort( $illion $( *) )-, and eight( $illion $( the (ear *)L-. ,ost social scientists
$elie2e the 0g"re will $e, at worst, $etween ele2en and twel2e $illion. %"t so m e ha2e not
r"led o"t a pop"lation $etween 0fteen and twent( $illion.
AT: Resource innovation/tech solves
T(e crunc( would still 1e ine,ita1le e,en i0 we (ad twice t(e num1er o0
nonrenewa1le resources
!eadows and Eanders* 2##.& 7rofessor of Bn2ironmental St"dies at Dartmo"th ollege,
7resident of Korweigian School of ,anagement, Director of the 7olic( and Social Science
at Uni2ersit( of Kew 4ampshire =53,3'S @F OG@;'4, pg +RC
;hat if o"r ass"mptions and n"m$ers arenIt correctQ ;hat diDerence wo"ld it make if, for
example, there are act"all( twice as man( nonrenewa$le reso"rces waiting to $e
disco2ered in the gro"nd as we ass"med in Scenario 3Q 'hat test is shown in 0g"re +&)*,
Scenario *. 8s (o" can see, reso"rce depletion occ"rs considera$l( later in this r"n than it
did in Scenario ), allowing growth to contin"e longer. Bxpansion contin"es for an
additional *- (ears, long eno"gh to achie2e one more do"$ling in ind"strial o"tp"t and
reso"rce "se. 'he pop"lation also grows longer, reaching a peak of more than eight $illion
in the sim"lated (ear *-+-. Despite these extensions, the general $eha2ior of the model is
still o2ershoot and collapse. 'he collapse now comes primaril( from intense poll"tion of
the glo$al en2ironment
2NC AT: Morality
1. ur disad is t(e most moral option
aU Fou (a,e more o0 a moral o1ligation to 0uture generations t(an to current onesI
0uture generations donCt (a,e a ,oice now* so we owe it to t(em to preser,e t(e
eart(
1U 1# to 1 e,er+ li0e +ou sa,e now &ills 1# in t(e crunc(. 2tilitarianism is t(e
most o18ecti,e wa+ to morall+ e,aluate crises.
2. T(ereCs a diBerence 1etween &illing and letting die ,oting aB means +ou
acti,el+ &ill 0uture generations w(ereas ,oting 0or t(e disad means +ou 8ust let
people die. -ommiting murder is worse t(an not donating +our lung to a cancer
societ+.
3. T(eir ,iew o0 et(ics is undiscriminating pointless moralism so di,orced 0rom
t(e real world t(at it is useless. -ost 1eneft assessment is morall+ superior 0or a
legislator
@letc(er, Uni2ersit( of Jirginia&:1 =>oseph, 7op"lation and Bn2ironment& ?hronic Famine
and the 3mmoralit( of Food 8id: 8 %ow to Oarrett 4ardinA, Jol"me )*, K"m$er H,
http://dieoD.org/page/).htmC
3n the "proar following 4ardin!s essa( in 7s(cholog( 'oda( there was one disc"ssant, more
simple&minded than tho"ghtf"l, who was prepared to gi2e aid regardless of the
conse9"ences. 8 philosopher act"all( declared, on the gro"nds of an a$sol"tistic
moralism, that we sho"ld share all food on the glo$al scale e2en if it means that all
mankind wo"ld star2e and the h"man species $ecome extinct =;atson, )/..C. 'his is a
sense of o$ligation so "ndiscriminating that it takes o"r $reath awa(. 3t is reminiscent of
ardinal Kewman!s grim opinion, in a religio"s contro2ers( in ):.-, that to pre2ent the
commission of e2en one pett( little sin it wo"ld $e $etter that the whole world and all the
people in it $e incinerated.
3n moral philosoph( the iss"e at stake in this disc"ssion is not merel( the age&old one of
a$sol"tism 2ers"s relati2ism, nor of the one =or a fewC 2ers"s the man(, $"t also whether
we are a$le to make rational and responsi$le 2al"e F"dgments witho"t acc"rate
meas"rement && meas"ring not onl( the factors in2ol2ed and the options a2aila$le, $"t the
pro$a$le conse9"ences of alternati2e co"rses of action.
3 ha2e m(self for a long time now insisted that not to meas"re, not to ha2e the rele2ant
n"m$ers, is ethicall( slipshod and disingen"o"s. 3ndeed, man( (ears ago 3 coined the term
ethimetrics. in a conscio"s imitation of the wa( that classical economics has had to come
to terms with the meas"rement of material 2al"es and their exchange, in the newl(
christened discipline of econometrics1 =Fletcher, )/.R; )/./C.
8fter all, 2al"es =and in some cases conEicting 2al"esC are the parameters we ha2e to
identif( when we make moral choices and decide o"r o$ligations. %( s"ch standards we
also determine whether an act or polic( is right or wrong. 3n mathematical lang"age we
might sa( o"r 2al"es are the independent 2aria$les we "se in an( set of ethical e9"ations.
,( own training in moral philosoph( was done within the context of the h"manities, and
s"ch was the case for most of m( colleag"es in the 0eld. @"r lack of scienti0c and
mathematical appreciation lea2es "s at some loss when we ha2e to deal, as we do
increasingl( in o"r mass societ(, with the meas"rement re9"irements of F"st distri$"tion.
;e lack the re9"isite 9"anti0ers or an( methodolog( of 9"anti0cation.
?a,2 in the se)enteenth ,entur6 su,h so,ial anal6sts as Sir :illiam >ett6 an9 Sir Du9le6 North -ere on mu,h
soun9er groun9 Valthough the6 -ere not 6et a4le to &er,ei)e that it -as soW -hen the6 thought o0 themsel)es as
engage9 in &oliti,al arithmeti,.. In mo9ern times legislators in 9emo,ra,ies ha)e as their &rimar6 goal the 0raming
o0 la-s -hi,h aim at the greatest goo9 o0 the greatest num4erG an9 ho- else ,an the6 9o it 4ut 46 measuring the
&resume9 ,onsequen,es o0 their statutes on all the in9i)i9uals an9 grou&s a00e,te9U 8o- else' ,an the6 9etermine a
=ust allo,ation o0 so,iet6's limite9 resour,esU Distri4uti)e =usti,e is the ,ore &ro4lem o0 &oliti,sG an9 &oliti,s in its
turn is inse&ara4le 0rom ethi,s as Aristotle ma9e a4un9antl6 ,lear a long time ago.
2NC AT: Morality
4. It is moral to sacrifice people now if we save more in the end
Hardin* :#& 7rofessor of 4"man Bcolog( at the Uni2ersit( of alifornia at Santa %ar$ara&
)//- = Oarrett, ?7romethean Bthics: 5i2ing with Death, ompetition and 'riageA., pg. )* X
)HC
3n man(species, certainl( among all mammals, parents sacri0ce something of themsel2es
to f"rther the interests of their children. omplete egoism on the part of the parents
simpl( does not pa(, not in an e2ol"tionar( sense. 'he shortening of a parent!s life is a
tri2ial matter if the pro$a$ilit( of there $eing children&and grandchildren and more remote
descendants&is increased $( the sacri0ce. 3n a word, and almost paradoxicall(, death has
s"r2i2al 2al"e. 3n a strict and narrow $iological sense, the death of the indi2id"al is good if
it $ene0ts the germ line. So the paradox is onl( apparent. 5est it $e s"pposed that onl(
altr"ism is selected for within the famil( circle, let me cite another 2ariation in $eha2ior.
'he B"ropean Swift la(s a cl"tch of three eggs in the earl( s"mmer, the oDspring of which
m"st $e fed $( the parents later, gleaning insects on the wing. Kot man( insects E( in cold,
rain( weather.the weather t"rns "nfa2ora$le while the eggs are $eing $rooded the parents
tip 0rst one egg o"t of the nest, then two, and 0nall( all three. 'he parents! action is the
a2ian e9"i2alent of a$ortion. 'he adapti2e signi0cance is o$2io"s: parents who carr( o"t
s"ch 1a$ortion1 will, on the a2erage, lea2e more li2ing oDspring $ehind than will parents
who "nwisel(&that is, "nseasona$l( $ring (o"ng into the world at a time when the( cannot
take care of them. 8ppl(ing con2entional h"man lang"age to these two animal stories we
wo"ld likel( speak of the no$le self&sacri0ce of the cricket mother, and the despica$le
m"rdero"sness of the swifts. %io&ethicall(, howe2er, the two cases are identical: each
strateg( maximi#es s"r2i2al in the long r"n. %oth species are, so to speak, acc"rate
7romethean calc"lators: their instincti2e $eha2ior takes acco"nt of the 8nd then whatQ
9"estion. 8s a matter of fact, species are 7romethean calc"lators&except possi$l( 4omo
sapiens, some of the mem$ers of which s"Der from the romantic del"sion that we can
s"r2i2e as Bpimetheans. 7aradoxicall(, shortness of life can ha2e s"r2i2al 2al"e. 4ow
length of life is determined $( e2ol"tionar( forces has $een con2incingl( explained $( G. 8.
Fisher and 7eter ,edawar.! 4"man eDorts to escape the eDects of nat"ral selection often
take the form of commini#ing the rewards, a dangero"sl( Bpimethean strateg( fo"nd in
s"ch in2entions as social sec"rit( s(stems, sociali#ed medicine, and 1progressi2e1 taxation.
'hese topics deser2e, and will no do"$t some da( recei2e, a thoro"gh st"d( from the
7romethean point of 2iew. For the present let "s pass them $(. 'he 2al"e of death is
inE"enced $( the formati2e stage of the indi2id"al at the time when life is terminated. ;e
can disting"ish three maFor states: the newl( forming, the malformed, the d(sforming.
XtnMorality
OG@U7 SUGJ3J85 @U';B3O4S 3KD3J3DU85 53JBS
Go$ert ,eller, philosoph( professor, '4B FU'UG3S', Decem$er )/:*, p. L.
@"r s"r2i2al as a species is more important than o"r indi2id"al s"r2i2al. 8s h"man $eings,
we are nat"rall( inclined to protect o"r own interests and to p"rs"e o"r own happiness.
%"t most of "s are willing to recogni#e that certain h"man goals s"percede o"r own
interests. For example, the destr"ction of making wo"ld $e a greater disaster than a
traDic accident in which one person was killed; if 3 were to $ecome the single fatalit(, 3
wo"ld still $e inclined to agree, e2en tho"gh the eDect on me wo"ld $e the same in either
case.
'4B 7G@'B'3@K @F FU'UGB OBKBG8'3@KS 3S 8 ,@G85 3,7BG8'3JB
Go$ert ,eller, philosoph( professor, '4B FU'UG3S', Decem$er )/:*, p. L/
;hat we $e9"eath to the f"t"re therefore, is o"rsel2es, and o"r responsi$ilit( to f"t"re
generations is identical with o"r responsi$ilit( to o"rsel2es. @n this "ltimate act rests the
meaning of o"r li2es here and now. ;e are m"ch more than indi2id"als. ;e are part of the
f"t"re. Kothing else means so m"ch.
'G3OOBG3KO @JBGS4@@' DBF3BS '4B 7G3K375B '48' ?53FB 3S S8GBDA
>ames 4ardin, U %iologist, 7@7U58'3@K 8KD BKJ3G@K,BK', Spring *--), p.
;hen a co"ntr( is o2erpop"lated < when its pop"lation is greater than the carr(ing
capacit( of its land, whate2er standard of li2ing is "sed in reaching a F"dgment < sa2ing
li2es toda( $( direct gifts of food ens"res that more li2es will $e lost tomorrow $eca"se of
the increased en2ironmental destr"ction made possi$le $( the enco"ragement of
pop"lation growth. 'he time&$lind ideal, ?4"man life is sacred,A is co"nterprod"cti2e. 'he
fashiona$le sa(ing , ?5ife is Sacred,A is interpreted as meaning that the preser2ation of the
life of each and e2er( h"man $eing is a prime imperati2e, o2erriding all other
considerations. ,ost people regard the sa2ing of the li2es of strangers at a great distance
as a morall( no$le $(&prod"ct of scienti0c progress. %"t when time is taken into
consideration it can $e shown that s"ch a ?no$leA act is co"nterprod"cti2e for its ?implicit
aim which, s"rel( is to minimi#e the total amo"nt of h"man s"Dering o2er time. 'he
admira$le imp"lses of the traditional moralist m"st $e confronted with the ecologistsIs
time&shackled 9"estion, ?8nd then whatQA
XtnMorality
!EAAAF AN? A"GAAAF* W" AE" %AIGAT"? T @2T2E" G"N"EATINS.
5othar O"ndling, 'he 8merican Societ( of 3nternational 5aw. 'he 8merican >o"rnal
3nternational 5aw, )&/-, :+ 8.>.3.5. *-.
'here is good reason to deal with o"r responsi$ilit2 to f"t"re generations not onl( as a
moral post"late, $"t also as a legal principle. 3 will ret"rn to that $elow. 8s to
international law, one can state that the de$ate no longer is merel( an academic one, $"t
rather has fo"nd its wa( into international politics, which ma( mean that it has crossed
the threshold of the law&creating process. 'he protection of f"t"re generations is
mentioned speci0call( in 2ario"s international instr"ments. !3n addition, responsi$ilit( to
f"t"re generations is the implied s"$Fect of se2eral recent de2elopments: 3 am referring to
the 2ario"s eDorts at the international le2el to reach a consens"s on paths toward
1s"staina$le de2elopment.1 3n this context, 1s"staina$le de2elopment1 is to $e "nderstood
as de2elopment that takes into acco"nt not onl( the needs and interests of the present
generation, $"t also those of generations to come.
'E"S"NT G"N"EATINS AE" E"S'NSI%A" @E @2T2E" G"N"EATINS.
'he Oeneral onference of the United Kations Bd"cational, Scienti0c and "lt"ral
@rgani#ation, DB58G8'3@K @F GBS7KS3%353'3BS @F '4B 7GBSBK' OBKBG8'3@K
'@ FU'UGB OBKBG8'3@KS, @cto$er&Ko2em$er )//.,
http://home."m.ed".mt/fgp/Declaration.html
'he Oeneral onference therefore, solemnl( proclaims on this twelfth da( of Ko2em$er
)//.this Declaration on the Gesponsi$ilities of the 7resent Oenerations towards F"t"re
Oenerations. 8rticle ): Keeds and 3nterests of F"t"re Oenerations 'he present generations
ha2e the responsi$ilit( of ens"ring that the needs and interests of f"t"re generations are
f"ll( safeg"arded. Article *: /reedom of 0#oice& 3t is important to make e2er( eDort to
ens"re, with d"e regard to h"man rights and f"ndamental freedoms, f"t"re as well as
present generations enFo( f"ll freedom of choice as to their political, economic and social
s(stems and are a$le to preser2e their c"lt"ral and religio"s di2ersit(. Article H:
1aintenance and Perpetuation of 2uman3ind& 'he present generations sho"ld stri2e to
ens"re, with d"e respect for the dignit( of the h"man person, the maintenance and
perm"tation of h"manit( =recogni#ing that the role of women is central to this processC.
onse9"entl(, the nat"re and form of h"man life m"st not $e "ndermined in an( wa(
whatsoe2er. Article +: Preservation of 4ife on Eart#& 'he present generations ha2e the
responsi$ilit( to $e9"eath to f"t"re generations an Barth which will not one da( $e
irre2ersi$l( damaged $( h"man acti2it(. Bach generation inheriting the Barth temporaril(
shall take care to "se nat"ral reso"rces reasona$l( and ens"re that life is not preF"diced
$( harmf"l modi0cations of the ecos(stems and that scienti0c and technological progress
in all 0elds does not harm life on Barth

XtnMorality
S'"-I"S S2EDIDAA !E" I!'ETANT THAN IN?IDI?2AA S2EDIDAA
Go$ert ,ellerf 7rofessor of 7hilosoph(, %rookdale omm"nit( ollege, '4B FU'UG3S',
Decem$er )/:*.p. L..
@"r s"r2i2al as a species is more important than o"r indi2id"al s"r2i2al. 8s h"man $eings.
we are nat"rall( inclined to protect o"r own interests and to p"rs"e o"r own happiness.
%"t most of "s are willing to recogni#e that certain h"man goals s"persede o"r own
interests.
D"E''2AATIN ?"STEFS TH" T2AAITF @ AI@" @ "D"EF AIDING
EGANIS!
,ichael 'o$ias, 7h.D Z Uni2ersit( of alifornia, Santa r"# and assistant professor of
Bn2ironmental 8Dairs and the 4"manities Z Dartmo"th ollege, ;@G5D
;8G 333: 7@7U58'3@K 8KD '4B %3@S@74BGB 8' '4B BKD @F '4B
,355BK3U,, )//:, p. )L&)R
5ike economic inEation, s"ch rapid pop"lation growth diminishes the 9"alit( of 5ife
package1 of e2er( li2ing organism. ompetition for life&s"staining reso"rces escalates,
more and more deemed a reso"rce. 'he exploitation of a reso"rce o$Fect, transmogrif(ing
$ea"t(, n"ance, "ni9"eness, and which is necessaril( and $iologicall( separate from
o"rsel2es, into a mere "tilit(. Utilitarianism has had its share of economic and ethical
!ad2ocates, $"t in tr"th, it the world.. 8 child is no $lessing when its generation is
inad2ertentl( mo$ili#ed in 0tf"l opposition to its s"rro"ndings < seeking to exploit, to
?com$at,A in other words, the 2er( ?nat"reA that has gi2en $irth to it in the 0rst place.
IN?IDI?2AAS AE" 2S"? T %"N"@IT TH"-AA"-TID" '"ESN
. 5. Sheng, 8 Utilitarian Oeneral 'heor( of Jal"e, )//:, p. )*L
8 person, in the e(es of others, is an o$Fect. 8n o$Fect, according to m( "ni0ed
"tilitarian theor(, m"st $e "sef"l in some sense for some s"$Fect &for the person herself
or himself, for some other persons, or for societ(, 'he 2al"es of a person are a topic of
the philosoph( of life, which is st"died, disc"ssed, or written a$o"t not onl( $(
professional philosophers, $"t also $( man( nonprofessional philosophers, s"ch as
literar( writers, social scientists, ed"cators, historians, politicians, and preachers, as
expressed in n"mero"s 0ctions, poems, $ooks, and pop"lar essa(s. 'oo m"ch literat"re
a$o"nds on the 2al"es of a person, to $e ade9"atel( referred to. .For the sake of
con2enience, 3 will present onl( m( ideas, opinions, and concl"sions, witho"t referring
to the literat"re at all.
XtnMorality
2TIAITAEIANIS! IS 2NID"ESAA IN AAA -2AT2E"S
Go$in %arrow, 7rofessor, Simon Fraser Uni2ersit(, )//), p. )+
'he second example of a familiar $"t misplaced criticism of "tilitarianism ill"strates a
common mis"nderstanding of a diDerent kind. For, as a matter of fact, as 3 shall arg"e
in hapter L,"tilitarianism does not E( in the face of e2idence for c"lt"ral 2ariation in
respect of moral 2al"es. 3t is tr"e that it is a theor( that wo"ld $e classi0ed $( man(
people as !a$sol"te! and !o$Fecti2e! =ignoring for the moment the pro$lematic nat"re
of these am$ig"o"s termsC, since it clearl( states that happiness is good and that we
o"ght to act so as to prom"lgate happiness, whate2er partic"lar peoples or c"lt"res
ma( $elie2e to the contrar(. Konetheless. it is one of the few ethical theories, perhaps
the onl( one, that can $oth ex lain and accept a great deal of c"lt"ral 2ariation. 'his
comes a$o"t be5ca"se of the nat"re of its pi2otal concept, happiness. 8s we shall see
in hapter +, happiness and h"man nat"re $eing what the( are, 9"ite diDerent
s(stems of social organi#ation and $eha2io"r ma( $e morall( accepta$le on "tilitarian
terms
NTINS THAT AI@" IS SA-E"? SH2A? %" E"J"-T"? WH"N TH"E" IS A
''2AATIN -EISIS
Dr. Oarret 4ardin, Uni2ersit( of alifornia, Santa %ar$ara, 7@7U58'3@K 8KD '4B
BKJ3G@K,BK', Spring )//), p. H+L
;hen a co"ntr( is o2erpop"lated < when its pop"lation is greater than the carr(ing
capacit( of its land, whate2er standard of li2ing is "sed in reaching a F"dgment <
sa2ing li2es toda( $( direct gifts of food ens"res that more li2es will $e lost tomorrow
$eca"se of the increased en2ironment destr"ction made possi$le $( the
enco"ragement of pop"lation growth. 'he time&$lind deal, ?4"man life is sacred,A is
co"nterprod"cti2e.
Ehrlich Qualifed
TH" "HEAI-HRS !"SSAG" A%2T WEA? ''2AATIN GEWTH IS STIAA
DIA%A"
6im Genee allesen, 7@7U58'3@K %@,% %M 78U5 B4G534, >"ne )-, )//.,
p. http://www.tam"cc.ed"/&whatle(/padmLH.-/read@He.htm
8ltho"gh this article was written in )/.), it $ro"ght o"t man( concerns which are . still
2ia$le toda(. 'he a"thor, Dr. 7a"l G. Bhrlich, gi2es "s a glimpse of how o"r world
pop"lation has exploded o2er the past :,--- (ears. 4e disc"sses the do"$ling time
necessar( for the world pop"lation and how this will keep increasing "nless something is
done a$o"t it.. 4e then contin"es on $( disc"ssing the potential world pop"lation /--
(ears from now if the pop"lation growth contin"ed at it!s present rate. 'he pop"lation
wo"ld $e R,---,---,---,---,---. Sixt( million $illion people. 8ccording to %ritish
ph(sicist, >. 4. Fremlin, as stated in Blrlichs! article, we wo"ld need a ho"sing proFect with
*,--- contin"o"s stories co2ering all the s"rface of the world incl"ding land and sea.
Fremlin states that the top ),--- stories wo"ld $e F"st for r"nning the entire place. 8$o"t
half of the $ottom ),--- Eoors wo"ld contain all the wiring, electrical and so on. 'he
remaining Eoors wo"ld $e for the pop"lation.
AT: Population Predictions Wrong
'E"?I-TINS E"AATID"AF A--2EAT"
SCI$N!ICIC AM$<ICANG Se&tem4er +**5G &. 44
Mainstream 9emogra&hers ha)e not s-ung 4a,2 an9 0orth nearl6 as mu,h as these e%treme 9e&i,tions might
suggest. Camilies in the 9e)elo&ing -orl9 ha)e shrun2 0aster than e%&e,te9G 4ut the 0ore,asts 9es,ri4e9 in
S,ienti0i, Ameri,an's 174 s&e,ial issue on &o&ulation ha)e largel6 stoo9 the test o0 time. In 0a,tG the So6lent
7reen an9 (mega Man s,enarios ea,h ,ontain an element o0 truth. 8umanit6 is still gro-ing enormousl6 in
a4solute termsG an9 &ast su,,ess at a)oi9ing Malthusian nightmares is no guarantee o0 0uture &er0orman,e.
AT: Markets Adapt
SI!'A" A?A'TATIN T SHETAG" IS NT 'SSI%A" IN ?"D"A'ING
-2NTEI"S
olin 6ahl, 7hd, Foreign 8Dairs expert at Oeorgetown Uni2ersit(, 3K'BGK8'3@K85
8FF83GS, Fall *--*, p. *L.
Se)eral relate9 hur9les a&&ear to un9ermine the o&eration o0 neoA,lassi,al logi, as it relates to rene-a4le
resour,e s,ar,it6 in &oorer nations. CirstG in man6 9e)elo&ing ,ountriesG the 0un9amentals Ve.g.G mar2etsG
&ro&ert6 rightsG go)ernment &oli,iesG =u9i,ial institutionsG 4asi, in0rastru,tureG resear,h 0a,ilitiesG e%tension
ser)i,esG human ,a&italW require9 to trans0orm &ri,e signals into a9a&tation are im&er0e,tG a4sent altogether or
9istorte9 in -a6s that a,tuall6 ,om&oun9 resour,e &ro4lems. Se,on9G ,riti,al rene-a4le resour,es su,h as
ara4le lan9 an9 0resh -ater o0ten la,2 ,hea& su4stitutes or eas6 te,hnologi,al 0i%esG lea)ing ,onser)ation as the
ma=or a9a&tation me,hanism. Un0ortunatel6G the e,onomi, &oli,ies an9 &o)ert6 that e%a,er4ate en)ironmental
&ressures in the 0irst &la,e also ten9 to un9ermine the ,a&a,it6 o0 in9i)i9uals an9 go)ernments to ma2e timel6
an9 e%&ensi)e in)estments in ,onser)ation. Cinall6G neoA,lassi,al e,onomists ten9 to un9errate the 9egree to
-hi,h en)ironmental s6stems 4e,ome stresse9 in nonAlinearG ra&i9 an9 irre)ersi4le -a6sG &ro9u,ing su99en
sur&rises an9 s,ar,ities that are 9i00i,ult to res&on9 toG at least in the short term. !here0oreG a9a&tationG e)en i0
it e)entuall6 o,,ursG ma6 4e too late to hea9 o00 signi0i,ant transitional 9i00i,ulties an9 ,on0li,ts.
AT: Author Indicts/Af authors bad
T(eir e,idence is Sawed and underestimates t(e true cost on 0uture generations
"(rlic( and ?ail+ :2 =7a"l G., %ing 7rofessor of 7op"lation St"dies and 7rofessor of
%iological Sciences at Stanford Uni2ersit( and Oretchen ., 7rofessor in the Department of
%iological Sciences; Senior Fellow in the ;oods 3nstit"te for the Bn2ironment, 17op"lation,
S"staina$ilit(, and Barth!s arr(ing apacit(1 %ioscience, 2ol"me +* iss"e )-, p. .R)&..),
http://www.Fstor.org/sta$le/)H))//LC
$,onomists ha)e great 9i00i,ult6 assigning monetar6 )alue to man6 o0 to9a6's en2ironmental amenities =e.g.,
clean air and national parksC and ris2s =e.g., glo$al warming and o#one depletionC, mu,h less
those o0 the 0uture. :hen 0uture ,osts are un,ertainG a ris2Aa)erse &oli,6 -oul9 require 9is,ounting less than i0 the6 ,oul9 4e
&re9i,te9 -ith ,ertaint6. 4owe2er, -hen anal6sts ,annot agree on the un,ertaintiesG too o0ten the6 ma2e no a9=ustment at
all in the 9is,ount rate. !he result is an un9erestimate o0 &otential 0uture ,ostsG su,h that &ro=e,ts that im&eril 0uture generations
a&&ear more 0a)ora4le than the6 shoul9. 'hese "ncertainties are compo"nded o2er the period for
which the calc"lation is made; the longer the time hori#on, the greater the gam$le. 8nd
-hen essential resour,es are in)ol)e9G that game is -ith 0uture ,arr6ing ,a&a,ities.
@uture optimistic population predicts are 0alse we are reac(ing carr+ing capacit+
"(rlic( et al :4 =7a"l G., %ing 7rofessor of 7op"lation St"dies and 7rofessor of %iological
Sciences at Stanford Uni2ersit(, 8nne 4. Bhrlich, Senior Gesearch 8ssociate in the
Department of %iological Sciences of Stanford Uni2ersit(, and Oretchen . Dail(, %ing
3nterdisciplinar( Gesearch Scientist at Stanford Uni2ersit(, ?'he Stork and 'he 7lowA p.
:.C
8ltho"gh disco"nting is 2alid in principle, two pro$lems make disco"nting o2er a
s"$stantial time hori#on =se2eral decades or moreC a gam$le with the welfare of f"t"re
generations. Bstimating f"t"re costs and $ene0ts is diDic"lt, and selection often
appropriate disco"nt rate is s"$Fect to $oth s"$Fecti2it( and "ncertaint(. $,onomists ,annot easil6
assign monetar6 )alue to man6 o0 to9a6's en)ironmental amenities =s"ch as $iodi2ersit(, soil, and
gro"ndwaterC an9 ris2s =glo$al warming, o#one depletion, anti$iotic&resistant strains of
$acteriaC, m"ch less those of the f"t"re. :hen 0uture ,osts are un,ertainG a ris2Aa)erse go)ernment -oul9
en,ourage 9is,ounting less than i0 ris2s ,oul9 4e &re9i,te9 -ith ,ertaint6. ;hen anal(sts cannot agree on the
"ncertainties, howe2er, too often the( make no adF"stment at all in the disco"nt rate. !he
result is an un9erestimate o0 &otential 0uture ,ostsG su,h that &ro=e,ts that im&eril 0uture generations a&&ear more 0a)ora4le than
the6 shoul9. 'hese "ncertainties are compo"nded o2er the period for which the calc"lation is
made; the longer the time hori#on, the greater the gam$le. An9 -hen essential resour,es are in)ol)e9G
that gam4le is -ith 0uture ,arr6ing ,a&a,it6.
AT: Underpopulation Bad
2nderpopulation is not a t(reat it is 8ust a construction designed to &eep t(e
international communit+ alert and to 0acilitate glo1aliMation.
AoeVer #2 [?5earning the 'roikaA >"ne /, *--*. >ohn 5oeeer is host of the nationall( s(ndicated
news program Steel on Steel, which is prod"ced $( his wife arol 5oeeer. %oth are career
$roadcasters. http://www.newswith2iews.com/loeeer/loeeerR.htm]
$)er sin,e the 15*s an9 16*sG glo4al &lanners ha)e quietl6 state9 that the nations o0 the -orl9 ,oul9 ne)er 4e at &ea,e
-ithout some 0orm o0 glo4aliLation. !he onl6 -a6 to a,hie)e this -as to ,reate or ma%imiLe glo4al ,risesG 2ee&ing the -orl9
,onstantl6 on e9ge.. Since then the world has $een s"$Fected to a $om$ardment of ongoing wars,
skirmishes and pro$lems, some real, some contri2ed. !here has 4een threat o0 nu,lear -arG glo4al 0reeLingG
o)erA&o&ulationG then glo4al -armingG &ollutionG en9angere9 s&e,iesG rising o,eansG no- un9er&o&ulationG and 0nall( &&
$est of all && terrorism, an enem( that is hard to identif(, "ndenia$l( terri$le and alwa(s
threatening. Corgotten is the 0a,t that as one ,risis &ro)e9 to 4e a nonA,risisG no mea ,ul&a -as uttere9 46 the glo4alists 4ut
rather the &u4li, -as hurrie9 on on to the ne%t ,risis d" Fo"r.
Smaller populations means an increase in per capita G?'
T(e "conomist #$ [?Orossl( distorted pict"reA ,arch )H, *--:.
http://www.economist.com/0nance/7rinterFriendl(.cfmQstor(PidY)-:L*+R*]
7D> gro-th 0igures 0latter Ameri,a's relati)e &er0orman,eG 4e,ause its &o&ulation is rising mu,h 0asterG 46 1J a 6earG than2s to
immigration an9 a higher 4irth rate. 3n contrast, the num4er o0 3a&anese ,itiLens has 4een shrin2ing sin,e +**5. @nce
(o" take acco"nt of this, 3a&an's 7D> &er hea9 in,rease9 at an annual rate o0 +.1J in the 0i)e 6ears to +**7G slightl6
0aster than Ameri,a's 1.J an9 mu,h 4etter than 7erman6's 1.4N. 3n other words, contrar( to the pop"lar
pessimism a4out 3a&an's e,onom6G it has a,tuall6 en=o6e9 the 4iggest gain in a)erage in,ome among the 4ig three ri,h
e,onomies.
2nderpopulation sol,es 0or glo1al warming and ur1an sprawl and outweig(s neg
impacts
Was(ington 'ost #3 [?Shrinking 7op"lation Kot a 7ro$lemA >"l( )L, *--H.
http://www.lexisnexis.com.prox(.li$."mich.ed"/"s/lnacademic/res"lts/doc2iew/doc2iew.doQ
doc5ink3ndYtr"eXris$Y*)P'R/H*L+/:/)XformatYOK%F3XsortYGB5BJ8KBXstartDocKoY)Xres
"ltsUrl6e(Y*/P'R/H*L+/://Xcis$Y**P'R/H*L+/:/:Xtree,axYtr"eXtree;idthY-XcsiY:-.LXdo
cKoY)]
Calls 0or more immigration to o00set the Unite9 States' 9e,lining 4irthrate NH!he ?a46 ?ustGH e9itorialG 3ul6 6Q ignore rea9il6
a)aila4le 9emogra&hi, 9ata. !he U.S. 4irthrate an9 the U.S. immigration rate are higher than those o0 man6 $uro&ean
,ountries -ith sta4le or 9e,lining &o&ulations. !he U.S. 6earl6 immigration rate o0 1.5 immigrants &er 1G*** resi9entsG
a,,or9ing to the CIA :orl9 Ca,t4oo2G is more than tri&le that o0 the Unite9 @ing9om an9 0i)e times that o0 Cran,e. !husG
a,,or9ing to mi9range estimates 46 the Census ?ureauG the U.S. &o&ulation is e%&e,te9 to rise 0rom +81 million to9a6 to 4*1
million in +*5*G mostl6 4e,ause o0 immigrationG as the U.S. 4irthrate is 4elo- re&la,ement le)el. !he 9e,line in the U.S.
4irthrate shoul9 4e ,ele4rate9G as it hel&s mo9erate our soaring &o&ulation. !he H4a46 4ustH is not a &ro4lemG it is a solution to
&ollute9 airG 0resh-ater shortagesG ur4an s&ra-lG glo4al -armingG 9estru,tion o0 natural ha4itats an9 other relate9 issues that
regularl6 gra,e !he >ost's &ages. Com&are9 -ith the 4ene0its o0 a shrin2ing &o&ulationG the 9o-nsi9es are managea4le. I0
there aren't enough 6oung a9ults to allo- meG a 4a46 4oomerG to retire at 65G that's o2a6. I'9 4e &lease9 to -or2 until I 9ro& i0 it
-oul9 a00or9 m6 gran9,hil9ren the 4ene0its o0 a shrin2ing &o&ulation. An9 -hat e)i9en,e is there that a shrin2ing &o&ulation
-ill ,ause e,onomi, an9 intelle,tual HstagnationHU As 0or the militar6G -e ha)e the -orl9's strongest 0or,es -ith a &o&ulation
less than a thir9 o0 those o0 at least t-o other nations . !he U.S. &o&ulation has in,rease9 46 more than 8* million &eo&le sin,e
the 4i,entennial in 176. 7oing 4a,2 a little 0urtherG the &o&ulation o0 the Unite9 States -as a4out 11* million 9uring :orl9
:ar IIG 45* 6ears a0ter $uro&eans 4egan sailing to the Ne- :orl9. During the last ,ensusG the &o&ulation ha9 4alloone9 to
more than +8* million &eo&le. I0 the 4irthrate is so lo-G -here are these &eo&le ,oming 0romU Is it all immigrationU An6one
-ho's s&ent an hour tr6ing to ,ross a 4ri9ge into the Distri,t ,an tell 6ou that -hate)er Ameri,a's &ro4lems areG the6 -on't 4e
sol)e9 46 a ,on,erte9 e00ort to s&ee9 u& our Malthusian s&iral.
AT: Overpopulation Good
'opulation growt( good arguments are Sawed
<rant, 5ormer U* Dep"ty '$$i$tant *ecretary of *tate for (nvironment an! .op"lation, ,2
=5indse(, 'he orn"copian Fallacies, arr(ing apacit( Ketwork,
http://www.dieoD.org/page+L.htmC
Cor the em&lo6er see2ing assuran,e o0 ,hea& la4or or the 4usinessman ho&ing 0or the larger mar2etG it is ,om0orting to 4e tol9
that more immigration an9 &o&ulation gro-th are goo9 things. !he i9ealistG eager to hel& hungr6 0ello- humans an9 0ear0ul
that &leas 0or lo-er 0ertilit6 are a ,o)er 0or ra,ismG is =ust as li2el6 to 4e 4eguile9 46 the messageG unless he or she has ,ome to
realiLe that lau9a4le &ur&oses sometimes ,on0li,t -ith ea,h other. @ne co"ld hardl( o$Fect to ha2ing a co"ple
of corn"copians "rging people to $e of good cheer and sto"t heart, were it not for the
danger that ma( con2ince some citi#ens and polic( makers not to worr( a$o"t some
pressing pro$lems that "rgentl( need attention. 'he ,ornu,o&ians' argumentationG ho-e)erG is seriousl6
0la-e9 as a tool 0or i9enti06ing the real an9 im&ortant &resent tren9s. 'here is an as(mmetr( in the nat"re of
the arg"ments of the en2ironmentalists and the corn"copians. 'he en2ironmentalistSthe
proponent of correcti2e actionSis =or sho"ld $eC Simpl( warning of conse9"ences if trends
or pro$lems are ignored; he or she does not need to predict. !he ,ornu,o&ianG on the other han9G must
&re9i,t to ma2e his or her ,ase. 8e must argue that &ro4lems -ill 4e sol)e9 an9 goo9 things -ill ha&&en i0 -e let nature ta2e its
,ourse. Sin,e no4o96 has 6et 4een a4le to &re9i,t the 0utureG ,ornu,o&ians are as2ing their listeners to ta2e a lot on 0aith. !he6
sa6G in e00e,tG H?elie)e as I 9oG an9 6ou -ill 0eel 4etter.H Simon sa6s e%&li,itl6 that his ,on)ersion to his &resent )ie-&oint
im&ro)e9 his state o0 min9. 'he corn"copians ha2e made ass"mptions and chosen methodologies
that simpl( ignore or dismiss the most critical iss"es that ha2e led the en2ironmentalists to
their concerns: !he ,ornu,o&ians &a6 little attention to ,ausation an9 the6 &ro=e,t &ast e,onomi, tren9s me,hani,all6.
'he( ,asuall6 9ismiss the e)i9en,e that 9oesn't H0it.H!he6 em&lo6 a stati, anal6sis that ma2es no &ro)ision 0or 0ee94a,2 0rom
one se,tor to another. 'he( "nderstate the implications of geometric growth. !he6 4ase their &re9i,tions
on an e%traor9inar6 0aith in uninterru&te9 te,hnologi,al &rogress.
AT: Carrying Capacity Doesnt Exist
!ainstream models t(at (uman carr+ing capacit+ is infnite is SawedPt(e+ ignore
capital stoc&s* p(+sical Sows* and corresponding ecos+stems
=ee$, Univer$ity of Briti$h 2ol"mbia, ,H
6+illiam E, 7op"lation and Bn2ironment: 8 >o"rnal of 3nterdisciplinar( St"dies Jol"me ).,
K"m$er H, >an"ar( )//R, http://dieoD.org/page))-.htmC
on2entional wisdom s"ggests that $eca"se of technolog( and trade, h"man
carr(ing capacit( is in0nitel( expanda$le and therefore 2irt"all( irrele2ant to
demograph( and de2elopment planning. %( contrast, this article arg"es that
ecological carr(ing capacit( remains the f"ndamental $asis for demographic
acco"nting. 8 f"ndamental 9"estion for ecological economics is whether remaining
stocks of nat"ral capital are ade9"ate to s"stain the anticipated load of the h"man
econom( into the next cent"r(. Since mainstream =neoclassicalC models are $lind to
ecological str"ct"re and f"nction, the( cannot e2en properl( address this 9"estion.
'he present article therefore assesses the capital stocks, ph(sical Eows, and
corresponding ecos(stems areas re9"ired to s"pport the econom( "sing 1ecological
footprint1 anal(sis. 'his approach shows that most so&called 1ad2anced1 co"ntries
are r"nning massi2e "nacco"nted ecological de0cits with the rest of the planet.
Since not all co"ntries can $e net importers of carr(ing capacit(, the material
standards of the wealth( cannot $e extended s"staina$l( to e2en the present world
pop"lation "sing pre2ailing technolog(. 3n this light, s"staina$ilit( ma( well
depend on s"ch meas"res as greater emphasis on e9"it( in international
relationships, signi0cant adF"stments to pre2ailing terms of trade, increasing
regional self&reliance, and policies to stim"late a massi2e increase in the material
and energ( eDicienc( of economic acti2it(.
AT: Resource Shortages Good
T(e aBCs claim t(at resource s(ortages are good 0or eBicienc+ ignores t(e
detrimental eBects to t(e en,ironment
2ampbell, *t4 @o$eph *collar! ;all, ,:
V3oelG !o& o0 the thG Ma6 +*G htt&"##9ieo00.org#&age14+.htmW
3ust 4e,ause HSimon Sa6sHG 9oesn;t mean it true. !he gro-ing s,ar,it6 o0 these 0inite resour,es &oses an e,onomi,
&ro4lem to ra&i9l6 gro-ing &o&ulations. Not to mention the massi)e e00e,ts that Simon;s mentione9
resour,es su,h as ,oal an9 oil ha)e on the en)ironment. 8uman H-antsH are unlimite9 an9 -ith s,ar,e
amounts o0 resour,es in their areasG &eo&le su,h as North Ameri,ans loo2 to other ,ountries 0rom -hi,h the6 ,an im&ort
the goo9s that the6 nee9. As Simon sa6sG this tra9e is goo9 0or the e,onom6G 4ut it is 9etrimental to the earth's
resour,es. !he im&orting o0 goo9s 0rom thir9 -orl9 ,ountries into &la,e su,h as North Ameri,a ,reates a )er6 unequal
9istri4ution o0 goo9s an9 ,auses su00ering 0or 9e)elo&ing ,ountries. Simon;s statement that Hra- material ha)e 4een
getting less s,ar,e instea9 o0 more s,ar,e throughout histor6H VSimonG +4W is &lainl6 -rong. !hroughout
histor6G the im&ro)ing 9e)elo&ment o0 resour,es has ma9e them more a)aila4le 4ut has not in,rease9 the
a,tual amount. H :hen something gro-s it gets 4igger. :hen something 9e)elo&s it gets 9i00erent. !he earth e,os6stem
9e)elo&s Ve)ol)esWG 4ut 9oes not gro-.H VDal6G 1W. !his sho-s that 0inite resour,es are in9ee9 limite9 an9 on,e e%hauste9G
,annot 4e re&la,e9.
AT: Tech solves
T"-HNAGF WNCT SAD" -AEEFING -A'A-ITF 'E%A"!S
Oretchen . ?ail+ is a ;inslow/4ein# Fo"ndation 7ostdoctoral Fellow in the Bnerg( and
Geso"rces Oro"p, Uni2ersit( of alifornia at %erkele(, %erkele(, 8 /+.*-, and 7a"l G.
Bhrlich is the %ing 7rofessor of 7op"lation St"dies in the Department of %iological
Sciences, Stanford Uni2ersit(, %3@S3BKB, >"ne 2##2, http://dieoD.org/page))*.htm
!he se,on9 assertion is that te,hnologi,al a9)an,es -ill su00i,ientl6 lo-er &er ,a&ita im&a,ts through re9u,tions in T that no
ma=or ,hanges in li0est6le -ill 4e ne,essar6. !his assertion re& resents a le)el o0 o&timism hel9 &rimaril6 46 nons,ientists. VA
1+ =oint statement 46 the US National A,a9em6 o0 S,ien,es an9 the ?ritish <o6al So,iet6 e%&resses a 9istin,t la,2 o0 su,h
o&timismW. !e,hni,al &rogress -ill un9ou4te9l6 lea9 to e00i,ien,6 im&ro)ementsG resour,e su4stitutionsG an9 other inno)ations
that are ,urrentl6 unimagina4le. Di00erent estimates o0 0uture rates o0 te,hni,al &rogress are the ,ru% o0 mu,h o0 the
9isagreement 4et-een e,ologists an9 e,onomists regar9ing the state o0 the -orl9. NonethelessG the ,osts o0 &lanning
9e)elo&ment un9er in,orre,t assum&tions are mu,h higher -ith o)erestimates o0 su,h rates than -ith un9erestimates VCostanLa
18W.A 0e- sim&le ,al,ulations sho- -h6 -e 4elie)e it im&ru9ent to ,ount on te,hnologi,al inno)ation to re9u,e the s,ale o0
0uture human a,ti)ities to remain -ithin ,arr6ing ,a&a,it6. $m&lo6ing energ6 use as an im&er0e,t surrogate 0or &erA,a&ita
im&a,tG in 1* 1.+ 4illion ri,h &eo&le -ere using an a)erage o0 7.5 2ilo-atts V2:W &er &ersonG 0or a total energ6 use o0 .*
tera-atts V!((I 1* 1+ -attsW. In ,ontrastG 4.1 4illion &oor &eo&le -ere using 1 2: &er &ersonG an9 4.1 !: in aggregate
V8ol9ren 11aW. !he total en)ironmental im&a,t -as thus 11.1 !:. Su&&ose that human &o&ulation gro-th -ere e)entuall6
halte9 at 1+ 4illion &eo&le an9 that 9e)elo&ment su,,ee9e9 in raising glo4al &er ,a&ita energ6 use to 7.5 2: Va&&ro%imatel6 4
2: 4elo- ,urrent US useW. !henG total im&a,t -oul9 4e * !:. ?e,ause there is mounting e)i9en,e that 11.1 !: usage is too
large 0or $arth to sustainG one nee9s little imagination to &i,ture the en)ironmental results o0 energ6 e%&en9itures some
se)en0ol9 greater. Neither &h6si,ists nor e,ologists are sanguine a4out im&ro)ing te,hnologi,al &er0orman,e se)en0ol9 in the
time a)aila4le. !here isG in9ee9G little =usti0i,ation 0or ,ounting on te,hnologi,al mira,les to a,,omo9ate the 4illions more
&eo&le soon to ,ro-9 the &lanet -hen the )ast ma=orit6 o0 the ,urrent &o&ulation su4sists un9er ,on9itions that no one rea9ing
this arti,le -oul9 )oluntaril6 a,,e&t. >ast e%&e,tations o0 the rate o0 9e)elo&ment an9 &enetration o0 im&ro)e9 te,hnologies
ha)e not 4een 0ul0ille9. In the 16*sG 0or e%am&leG it -as -i9el6 ,laime9 that te,hnologi,al a9)an,esG su,h as nu,lear
agroin9ustrial ,om&le%es Ve.g.G (<N/ 168WG -oul9 &ro)i9e 5.5 4illion &eo&le -ith 0oo9G health ,areG e9u,ationG an9
o&&ortunit6. Although the 7reen <e)olution 9i9 in,rease 0oo9 &ro9u,tion more ra&i9l6 than some &essimists Ve.g.G >a99o,2
an9 >a99o,2 167W &re9i,te9G the gains -ere not generall6 ma9e on a sustaina4le 4asis an9 are thus unli2el6 to ,ontinue
V$hrli,h et al. 1+W. At &resentG a&&ro%imatel6 a 4illion &eo&le 9o not o4tain enough 9ietar6 energ6 to ,arr6 out normal -or2
a,ti)ities. CurthermoreG as man6 nons,ientists 0ail to gras&G technological achievements cannot ma=e biophysical carrying
capacity infinite. Consi9er 0oo9 &ro9u,tionG 0or e%am&le. Soil ,an 4e ma9e more &ro9u,ti)e 46 a99ing nutrients an9 irrigationI
6iel9s ,oul9 &ossi4l6 4e in,rease9 0urther i0 it -ere e,onomi,all6 0easi4le to gro- ,ro&s h69ro&oni,all6 an9 sunlight -ere
su&&lemente9 46 arti0i,ial light. 8o-e)erG 4io&h6si,al limits -oul9 4e rea,he9 46 the ma%imal &ossi4le &hotos6ntheti,
e00i,ien,6. $)en i0 a metho9 -ere 0oun9 to manu0a,ture ,ar4oh69rates that -as more e00i,ient than &hotos6nthesisG that
e00i,ien,6G tooG -oul9 ha)e a ma%imum. !he 4ottom line is that the la-s o0 thermo96nami,s ine)ita4l6 limit 4io&h6si,al
,arr6ing ,a&a,it6 VCremlin 164W i0 shortages o0 in&uts or e,ologi,al ,olla&se 9o not inter)ene 0irst.
AT: Tech Solves
Tec(nolog+ and increased trade does not sol,e 0or our carr+ing capacit+P
e)pansion o0 (uman populations will ine,ita1le ris& man&ind
=ee$, Univer$ity of Briti$h 2ol"mbia, ,H
6+illiam E, 7op"lation and Bn2ironment: 8 >o"rnal of 3nterdisciplinar( St"dies Jol"me ).,
K"m$er H, >an"ar( )//R, http://dieoD.org/page))-.htmC
'his article sides solidl( with 4ardin. 3 start from the premise that despite o"r increasing technological
sophistication, h"mankind remains in a state of 1o$ligate dependence1 on the prod"cti2it(
and life s"pport ser2ices of the ecosphere =Gees, )//-C. 'h"s, from an ecological
perspecti2e, ade9"ate land and associated prod"cti2e nat"ral capital are f"ndamental to
the prospects for contin"ed ci2ili#ed existence on Barth. 4owe2er, at present, $oth the
h"man pop"lation and a2erage cons"mption are increasing while the total area of
prod"cti2e land and stocks of nat"ral capital are 0xed or in decline. 'hese opposing trends demand
a re2i2al of carr(ing capacit( anal(sis in s"staina$le de2elopment planning. 'he complete rationale is as follows: For
p"rposes of game and range management, carr(ing capacit( is "s"all( de0ned as the maxim"m
pop"lation of a gi2en species that can $e s"pported inde0nitel( in a de0ned ha$itat
witho"t permanentl( impairing the prod"cti2it( of that ha$itat. 4owe2er, $eca"se of o"r
seeming a$ilit( to increase o"r own carr(ing capacit( $( eliminating competing species, $(
importing locall( scarce reso"rces, and thro"gh technolog(, this de0nition seems
irrele2ant to h"mans. 3ndeed, trade and technolog( are often cited as reasons for reFecting
the concept of h"man carr(ing capacit( o"t of hand. [8ccording to orthodox theor(, free trade is
in2aria$l( good, res"lting in impro2ed li2ing standards and increased aggregate prod"cti2it( and eDicienc( && increased
carr(ing capacit( && thro"gh comparati2e ad2antage.] 'his is an ironic error && shrinking carr(ing capacit(
ma( soon $ecome the single most important iss"e confronting h"manit(. 'he reason for this
$ecomes clearer if we de0ne carr(ing capacit( not as a maxim"m pop"lation $"t rather as the maxim"m 1load1 that can
safel( $e imposed on the en2ironment $( people. 4"man load is a f"nction not onl( of pop"lation $"t
also of per capita cons"mption and the latter is increasing e2en more rapidl( than the
former d"e =ironicall(C to expanding trade and technolog( . 8s atton =)/:RC o$ser2es: 1'he world is
$eing re9"ired to accommodate not F"st more people, $"t eDecti2el( !larger! people . . .1 For example, in )./- the estimated
a2erage dail( energ( cons"mption $( 8mericans was )),--- kcal. %( )/:-, this had increased almost twent(&fold to *)-,---
kcal/da( =atton )/:RC. 8s a res"lt of s"ch trends, load press"re relati2e to carr(ing capacit( is rising m"ch faster than is
implied $( mere pop"lation increases.
Trade and tec(nolog+ canCt e)pand our carr+ing capacit+
?ees, @niversity of 9ritish 'olumbia, HJ =;illiam B, 7op"lation and Bn2ironment: 8 >o"rnal of 3nterdisciplinar(
St"dies Jol"me )., K"m$er H, >an"ar( )//R, http://dieoD.org/page))-.htmC
8s pre2io"sl( noted, ,on)entional anal6sts o0ten argue that tra9e an9 te,hnolog6 e%&an9 e,ologi,al ,arr6ing ,a&a,it6.
!his is a mis,on,e&tion. $)en in the 4est o0 ,ir,umstan,esG te,hnologi,al inno)ation 9oes not in,rease ,arr6ing ,a&a,it6 per
se $"t onl( the eDicienc( of reso"rce "se. In theor6G shi0ting to more energ6A an9 materialAe00i,ient
te,hnologies shoul9 ena4le a 9e0ine9 en)ironment to su&&ort a gi)en &o&ulation at a higher material stan9ar9G or a higher
&o&ulation at the same material stan9ar9G there46 seeming to in,rease ,arr6ing ,a&a,it6. 8o-e)erG in either ,aseG the 4est -e
,oul9 ho&e 0or in an in,reasingl6 o&en glo4al e,onom6 -oul9 4e to maintain total human loa9 ,onstant in the )i,init6 o0
,arr6ing ,a&a,it6 AA the latter -oul9 still ultimatel6 4e limiting.
AT: Tech Solves
Tec(nolog+ and conser,ation canCt sol,e 1ac& t(e negati,e eBects o,erpopulation
elicitsPonl+ curtailing population can sol,e
.imientel, ;"an, an! 2or!ova, ,H >Davi!, M"e0en, 'na, an! Marcia, 3he impact of pop"lation ro0th on foo! $"pplie$ an!
environment, .op"lation an! Development =evie0, 5ebr"ary /,,H, http%88!ieoff4or8pae#94htm+
ertainl( impro2ed technolog( will assist in more eDecti2e management and "se of
reso"rces, $"t it cannot prod"ce an "nlimited Eow of those 2ital nat"ral reso"rces that are
the raw materials for s"stained agric"lt"ral prod"ction. For instance, fertili#ers enhance
the fertilit( of eroded soils, $"t h"mans cannot make topsoil. 3ndeed, fertili#ers made from
0nite fossil f"els are presentl( $eing "sed to compensate for eroded topsoil. 7er capita 0sh
catch has not increased e2en tho"gh the si#e and speed of 0shing 2essels has impro2ed. @n the contrar(, per capita 0sh
prod"ction is lower than e2er $efore $eca"se greater eDicienc( led to o2er0shing. 3n regions like eastern anada,
o2er0shing has $een so se2ere that cod 0shermen ha2e no 0sh to catch, and the econom( of that region has $een de2astated.
8ll of the world!s 0shing gro"nds are facing o2er0shing pro$lems. onsider also the s"pplies of fresh water that are
a2aila$le not onl( for agric"lt"re $"t also for ind"str( and p"$lic "se. ;ater withdrawn from the olorado Gi2er in se2eral
states for irrigation and other p"rposes res"lts in the ri2er $eing nearl( dr( $( the time it reaches the Sea of ortes, ,exico.
Ko a2aila$le technolog( can do"$le the Eow of the olorado Gi2er, altho"gh eDecti2e
water conser2ation wo"ld $e a help. Similarl(, the shrinking gro"nd water reso"rces stored in 2ast a9"ifers
cannot $e re0lled $( h"man technolog(. Gainfall is the onl( s"pplier. 8 prod"cti2e and s"staina$le
agric"lt"ral s(stem depends on maintaining the integrit( of $iodi2ersit(. @ften small in si#e,
di2erse species are nat"ral enemies of pests, degrade wastes, form soil, 0x nitrogen, pollinate crops, etc. For example, in
Kew Mork State on one $right, s"nn( da( in >"l(, the wild and other $ees pollinate an estimated R,---,--- million $lossoms
of essential fr"its and 2egeta$les. 4"mans ha2e no technolog( to s"$stit"te for man( of the
ser2ices pro2ided $( di2erse species in o"r en2ironment. Strategies for the f"t"re m"st $e $ased 0rst
and foremost on the conser2ation and caref"l management of land, water, energ(, and $iological reso"rces needed for food
prod"ction. @"r stewardship of world reso"rces m"st change and the $asic needs of people m"st $e $alanced with those
reso"rces that s"stain h"man life. 'he conser2ation of these reso"rces will re9"ire coordinated eDorts and incenti2es from
indi2id"als and co"ntries. @nce these 0nite reso"rces are exha"sted the( cannot $e replaced $(
h"man technolog(. F"rther, more eDicient and en2ironmentall( so"nd agric"lt"ral technologies m"st $e de2eloped
and p"t into practice to s"pport the contin"ed prod"cti2it( of agric"lt"re.Met none of these meas"res will $e
s"Dicient to ens"re ade9"ate food s"pplies for f"t"re generations "nless the growth in the
h"man pop"lation is sim"ltaneo"sl( c"rtailed. Se2eral st"dies ha2e con0rmed that to maintain a relati2el(
high standard of li2ing, the optim"m pop"lation sho"ld $e less than *-- million for the U.S. and less than * $illion for the
world =7imentel et al., )//+C. 'his ass"mes that from now "ntil an optim"m pop"lation is achie2ed, strategies for the
conser2ation of land, water, energ(, and $iological reso"rces are s"ccessf"ll( implemented and a so"nd, prod"cti2e
en2ironment is protected.
AT: We Can Increase Food Production
@ood production cannot catc( up to population growt(
"(rlic( et al :4 =7a"l G., %ing 7rofessor of 7op"lation St"dies and 7rofessor of %iological
Sciences at Stanford Uni2ersit(, 8nne 4. Bhrlich, Senior Gesearch 8ssociate in the
Department of %iological Sciences of Stanford Uni2ersit(, and Oretchen . Dail(, %ing
3nterdisciplinar( Gesearch Scientist at Stanford Uni2ersit(, ?'he Stork and 'he 7lowA
p..RC
Kow that the world comm"nit( is no longer trans0xed $( the old ;ar, the se)erit6 an9
&er)asi)eness o0threats to en)ironmental an9 nutritional se,urit6 ha)e 4e,ome more a&&arent. 'hese aspects of
sec"rit( are closel( interconnected; agric"lt"re is exremel( sensiti2e to en2ironmental
conditions, and (et it ranks also as the single largest proximate ca"se of en2ironmental
disr"ption. F"rthermore, 4oth en)ironmental an9 nutritional se,urit6 are inherentl6 international &ro4lems, as
reEected in the glo$al trade in commodities, the glo$al en2ironmental commons, an9 the mass
migrations o0 &eo&le that ,an 4e &ro)o2e9 46 regional 0oo9 s,ar,it6. Do"$ts a$o"t h"manit(!s a$ilit( to
expand food prod"ction massi2el( in coming decades stem from two $asic o$ser2ations.
First, e)en though agri,ultural out&ut has gro-n 0aster than Malthus A or e)en some o&timists A &re9i,te9G &ast e%&e,tations
that the -orl9 0oo9 s6stem ,oul9 easil6 0ee9 a &o&ulation o0 5 4illion ha)e not 4een met. 3n fact, a$o"t *L- million
people, nearl( as man( as now li2e in the United States, ha2e died of h"nger&related
ca"ses in the past 9"arter cent"r(. As man6 as a 4illion &eo&le A one in e)er6 si% A are ,hroni,all6
un9ernourishe9 to9a6G a4out hal0 o0 them quite seriousl6 so . 3n se2eral maFor de2eloping regions, incl"ding
5atin 8merica and So"th 8sia, the num4ers o0 hungr6 &eo&le ha)e ,ontinue9 to in,reaseG 9es&ite the im&ressi)e
gains in -orl9 0oo9 &ro9u,tion. ;e explore the "nderl(ing ca"ses and remedies of these tragic
circ"mstances in the next chapter.
At toda+Cs population growt( rate* we cannot a,oid surpassing 0oodCs carr+ing
capacit+
"(rlic( et al :3 =7a"l G. Bhrlich, %ing 7rofessor of 7op"lation St"dies and 7rofessor of
%iological Sciences at Stanford Uni2ersit(, 8nne 4. Bhrlich, Senior Gesearch 8ssociate in
the Department of %iological Sciences of Stanford Uni2ersit(, Oretchen . Dail(, 7rofessor
in the Department of %iological Sciences; Senior Fellow in the ;oods 3nstit"te for the
Bn2ironment, 1Food Sec"rit(, 7op"lation and Bn2ironment1 7op"lation and De2elopment
Ge2iew, 2ol"me )/ iss"e ), p. )&H*, http://www.Fstor.org/sta$le/*/H:H:HC
'hese n"m$ers are not exact, of co"rse, and the( are $ased on ass"mptions that ma( somewhat
o2erstate the amo"nt of posthar2est food wastage. 'he( nonetheless p"t in perspecti2e the notion
that h"nger is 1F"st a pro$lem of distri$"tion.1 B2en if it were possi$le to transform most h"man
$eings into strict 2egetarians willing to share e9"all(, the sheer si#e and growth rate of the
pop"lation wo"ld still $e increasingl( important factors in pro2iding e2er(one with a minimal diet
$ eca"se of growing pop"lation&related stresses on the world!s 0nite food prod"ction s(stems. 'his
is not to sa( that a smaller pop"lation toda( wo"ld necessaril( $e $etter fed; economic, political,
and social factors are not onl( important determinants of food prod"ction and distri$"tion patterns,
$"t also ma( inhi$it or stim"late c"lt"ral and technological inno2ations that impro2e prod"ction
capacities. %"t agronomicall( and ecologicall(, it certainl( wo"ld $e easier to feed all people well if
there were fewer of them.
AT: Your Other DA is a Double Turn
N2-A"AE WAE ?"STEFS "AETHRS -A'A-ITF @E AI@".
7a"l G. Bhrlich, >ohn 4arte; ,ark 8. 4arwell; 7eter 4. Ga2en; arl Sagan etc., ecologist,
5ong 'erm %iological onse9"ences of K"clear ;ar, S3BKB, Dec. *H, )/:H, pp. )*/H&
)H--
S"$free#in9 temperat"res, low light le2els, and high doses of ioni#ing and "ltra2iolet
radiation extending for man( months after a large&scale n"clear war co"ld destro( the
$iological s"pport s(stems of ci2ili#ation, at least in the Korthern 4emisphere.
7rod"cti2it( in nat"ral and agric"lt"ral ecos(stems co"ld $e se2erel( restricted for a (ear
or more. 7ostwar s"r2i2ors wo"ld face star2ation as well as free#ing conditions in the dark
and $e exposed to near&lethal doses of radiation. 3f, as now seems possi$le, the So"thern
4emisphere were aDected also, of the $iosphere co"ld ens"e. 3n an( e2ent, there wo"ld $e
se2ere conse9"ences, e2en in the areas not aDected directl(, $eca"se of the
interdependence of the world econom(. 3n either case the extinction of a large

fraction of
the Barth!s animals, plants, and microorganisms seems possi$le. 'he pop"lation si#e of
4omo sapiens concei2a$l( co"ld $e red"ced to prehistoric le2els or $elow, and extinction
of the h"man species itself cannot $e excl"ded.
A N2-A"AE WAE -2A? SIGNI@I-ANTAF ?"'A"T" TH" WN" AAF"E AN?
?EID" HAA@ @ "AETHRS S'"-I"S T "XTIN-TIN
,oti Kissani, 'he @5D ;8G 8KD 8,BG38K 7@53'3S )/+L&)//),)//),
http://www.is.wa(ne.ed"/mnissani/pagep"$/li2es.htm
!he ,onne,tion 4et-een nu,lear -ar an9 the oLone la6er is sim&le" the heat ,reate9 46 nu,lear e%&losions &ro9u,es huge
quantities o0 nitrogen o%i9es in the surroun9ing air.+5 In a99itionG the laun,h o0 soli9A0uel missiles ma6 release huge quantities
o0 ,hlorine an9 nitrogen ,orn &oun9. !heseG in turnG are &re,isel6 among the ,hemi,als that ,oul9 ,ause signi0i,ant 9e&letion o0
the oLone la6er an9 lea9 to the t-o a9)erse ,onsequen,es 9es,ri4e9 a4o)e. In the 0irst 9a6s an9 -ee2s a0ter the -arG smo2e an9
9ust -ill &re)ent the in,rease9 ultra)iolet ra9iation 0rom rea,hing the earth's sur0a,e. ?ut oLone le)els -ill rea,h their na9ir in
6 to +4 monthsG long a0ter most o0 the smo2e an9 9ust ha)e settle9 4a,2 to (Lone le)els -ill &ro4a4l6 4e restore9 to a4o)e *
&er,entAo0 0ormer le)els -ithin 0i)e 6ears a0ter the -ar. 8en,eG Hnu,lear -interH an9 oLone 9e&letions are not e%&e,te9 to
a&&re,ia4l6 o00set ea,h other. Un9er the altere9 ,on9itions ,reate9 46 a nu,lear -arG as man6 as 5* &er,ent o0 the earth's
s&e,ies might 4e,ome e%tin,tG+6, some &est &o&ulations might tem&oraril6 in,reaseG an9 most natural ,ommunities might
un9ergo ra9i,al trans0ormations.
THE AFF ANSWERS.
Afrmative2AC Answers
No ris& o0 o,ers(oot
Bdward 4"gh, GB'43K63KO '4B DB,@OG8743 'G8KS3'3@K, *--R,
http://www.edwardh"gh.net/rethinkingPthePdemographicP.pdf
3n the short&r"n there is no real glo$al pro$lem. 'he pop"lation range in *-L- will $e
onl( from ..+ to )-.R $illion, n"m$ers which at 0rst can certainl( $e fed and, gi2en
proper safeg"ards, are not likel( to ca"se a maFor "pset to s"ch glo$al s(stems as the
atmosphere.
Aong term predictions are unrelia1lePmultiple inter,ening 0actors could sol,e
t(e crunc(
Sa,la) SmilG Demogra&herG >(>U/A!I(N AND D$S$/(>M$N! <$SI$:G Mar,h $00>G &. 157
8o- to 9eal -ith this ,om&uteriLe9 s6stem 96nami,s )ie- o0 the -orl9 4roa9,ast 6et again three 9e,a9es laterU
Not 46 9is&uting this or that 9u4ious statementG an9 ,ertainl6 not 46 &ointing out tru,2AsiLe holes in )arious
s,enarios o0 the glo4al 0uture. As -ith all su,h mo9eling e%er,isesG I ,annot ta2e an6 o0 these numerous longArange
s,enarios seriousl6. I ha)e sho-n in great 9etail Vusing a 2e6 )aria4le" energ6 su&&l6W ho- all su,h attem&ts are
9estine9 to 0ail VSmil +**1W. ?ut 6ou -oul9 not ha)e to rea9G an9 4e ,on)in,e9 46G an6 &roo0s an9 arguments o0
mine" =ust tr6 to 0ore,ast the -orl9 o0 +**5 -ith the un9erstan9ing -e ha9 in 1*5 an9 see ho- ri9i,ulous an6 su,h
e00ort -oul9 loo2. $)en more im&ressi)el6G 6ou ,an get &rett6 mu,h the same result 46 ,ontrasting 155 -ith +**5.
Un&ersua9e9U !hen let me 9igress =ust on,e moreG -ith a single timel6 e%am&le. In 155 it -as =ust si% 6ears a0ter
the Communist )i,tor6 in China's &rotra,te9 ,i)il -ar an9 three 6ears 4e0ore the 4eginning o0 the -orst VMaoA
ma9eW 0amine in histor6G -hi,h 2ille9 some 1* million &eo&le. At that time ChinaG un9er a regime unre,ogniLe9 46
the Unite9 StatesG -as an im&o)erishe9G su4sisten,e agrarian e,onom6G gla9 to re,ei)e a 0e- ,rum4s o0 -aste0ul
Stalinist in9ustrialiLationG an9 its annual &er ,a&ita 7D> -as less than 4 &er,ent o0 the US mean. Det 46 +**5
ChinaG still )er6 mu,h ,ontrolle9 46 the same Communist &art6G ha9 4e,ome a ne- -or2sho& 0or the -orl9G an
in9is&ensa4le su&&lier o0 goo9s ranging 0rom &liers to la&to&s Vno :alAMartG that &aragon o0 Ameri,an ,a&italismG
-ithout Communist ChinaWI an9 the 0ate o0 Ameri,a's -o44l6 ,urren,6 9e&en9e9 to a large 9egree on China's
-illingness to ,ontinue re,or9 &ur,hases o0 US !reasur6 4ills. I0 6ou are ,ertain that 6ou ,oul9 ha)e anti,i&ate9 all
o0 this in 155 Vor 0or that matter in Se&tem4er 176 right a0ter Mao's 9eathG or e)en in summer 18 a0ter the
!iananmen 2illingsWG then 6ou are hol9ing the -rong =o4. !here is a great 9eal o0 inertia in longArange te,hni,al
an9 so,ial 9e)elo&mentsG an9 this 0a,t allo-s us to loo2 ahea9 -ith a great 9eal o0 un9erstan9ing VSmil +**5W. ?utG
Cran,is Cu2u6ama's &ro&hes6ings asi9eG histor6 has not en9e9 an9 it al-a6s a9)an,es through lur,hing
9is,ontinuitiesG most o0 them utterl6 un&re9i,ta4le an9 hen,e un&rogramma4le. An9 0or those histori,al saltations
-hose ,oming ,an 4e ne4ulousl6 9is,erne9G -e are 4oun9 to miss the ,riti,al 9imensions o0 timing an9 intensit6.
/i2e all other gran9 em&iresG the $)il one -as sure to ,olla&seG 4ut -ho -oul9 ha)eG e)en in 185G time9 it 0or
11U /i2e other 0un9amentalist 0anati,sG militant Muslims ha)e ne)er a9mire9 mo9ernit6 4ut -ho -oul9 ha)eG in
11G 0ore,ast #11 o0 +**1U An9 6et these 9is,ontinuities rarel6 ,om&oun9 in a single 9ire,tion" -orl9 histor6 9oes
not mo)e u& or 9o-n. Neither is it ma9e o0 os,illations o0 as,ent an9 ,olla&seG ho&e an9 9es&air. !he -orl9 al-a6s
unra)els as it is 4uilt ane-I a &olit6 ma6 ,olla&se 4ut the un9erl6ing ,i)iliLation ma6 li)e on. 8uman ingenuit6 an9
a9a&ta4ilit6 al-a6s o00er a 0rustrating mi%ture o0 a9)an,es an9 0ailures.
Afrmative2AC Answers
No ris& o0 o,ers(oot
3ulian SimonG >ro0essor o0 ?usiness A9ministration at the Uni)ersit6 o0 Mar6lan9 an9 a mem4er o0 the A,ton
Institute A9)isor6 ?oar9GG !8$ U/!IMA!$ <$S(U<C$ II" >$(>/$G MA!$<IA/SG AND !8$
$NSI<(NM$N!G 5668G htt&"##---.=uliansimon.,om#-ritings#UltimateZ<esour,e#!C8A<+8.t%t

Similarl6G 6ou ma6 -ell as2 a4out the nearAterm e00e,t o0 &o&ulation gro-th on resour,esG a0ter all this tal2 a4out
the long run. !here is more ,om0ort 0or 6ou than 0or Te2eG ho-e)er. !rueG -ithin a )er6 short time there is little
,han,e 0or the naturalA resour,e su&&l6 to a,,ommo9ate to a su99en in,rease in 9eman9. ?ut &o&ulation gro-th is
a )er6 slo-Aa,ting &henomenonG not ,hanging ra9i,all6 in an6 short &erio9. An9 it is not until man6 6ears a0ter
the 4irth o0 a ,hil9 that the a99itional &erson uses mu,h natural resour,es. Cor 4oth these reasonsG mo9ern in9ustr6
has &lent6 o0 time to res&on9 to ,hanges in a,tual 9eman9G an9 -e nee9 not 0ear shortArun &ri,e runAu&s 9ue to
in,rease9 &o&ulation gro-th. !his anal6sis =i4es -ith the ,ontinue9 longArun 9e,rease in the &ri,es o0 all ra-
materialsG as 9is,usse9 in ,ha&ters 1A1.
+daptation solves
olin Ga(l, 7hd, and foreign aDairs expert at Oeorgetown Uni2ersit(, 3K'BGK8'3@K85
8FF83GS, Fall 2##2, p. *L.
NeoA,lassi,al arguments relate9 to resour,e s,ar,it6 ha)e su4stantial merit. A0ter ,enturies o0 9e4ateG it is ,lear that
tra9itional Malthusian ,laims a4out the ine)ita4le relationshi& 4et-een &o&ulation gro-th an9 resour,e s,ar,it6
ha)e &ro)en 0alse. In9ee9G as ?ir9sall an9 Sin9ingG t-o s,holars s6m&atheti, -ith the neoAMalthusian )ie-G noteG
ONtQhe e00e,ts o0 mar2ets an9 institutionssometimes goo9G sometimes 4a9,an easil6 s-am& the e00e,t o0
&o&ulation ,hange on resour,e useG 9egra9ationG an9 9e&letion.P Ne)erthelessG neoA,lassi,al e,onomists ten9 to 4e
o)erl6 o&timisti, a4out the &ros&e,ts 0or a9a&tation. In9ee9G -hile mar2ets an9 institutions ha)e 0requentl6 a9a&te9
to D$SAin9u,e9 &ressures at the glo4al le)el an9 -ithin -ealth6 in9ustrialiLe9 ,ountriesG serious lo,al s,ar,ities
,ontinue to emerge -ithin 9e)elo&ing ,ountries. Moreo)erG an9 some-hat ironi,all6G a9a&tation has 4een mu,h
more su,,ess0ul in hea9ing o00 shortages o0 nonArene-a4le resour,es Ve.g.G oil an9 other mineralsW than rene-a4le
ones.
&ar=et solves
3ulian SimonG >ro0essor o0 ?usiness A9ministration at the Uni)ersit6 o0 Mar6lan9 an9 a mem4er o0 the A,ton
Institute A9)isor6 ?oar9 !8$ U/!IMA!$ <$S(U<C$ II" >$(>/$G MA!$<IA/SG AND !8$ $NSI<(NM$N!G
5668G htt&"##---.=uliansimon.,om#-ritings#UltimateZ<esour,e#!IN!<(.t%t
!he ne- theor6 that is the 2e6 i9ea o0 the 4oo2 A an9 is ,onsistent -ith ,urrent e)i9en,e A is this" 7reater
,onsum&tion 9ue to in,rease in &o&ulation an9 gro-th o0 in,ome heightens s,ar,it6 an9 in9u,es &ri,e runAu&s. A
higher &ri,e re&resents an o&&ortunit6 that lea9s in)entors an9 4usiness&eo&le to see2 ne- -a6s to satis06 the
shortages. Some 0ailG at ,ost to themsel)es. A 0e- su,,ee9G an9 the 0inal result is that -e en9 u& 4etter o00 than i0
the original shortage &ro4lems ha9 ne)er arisen. !hat isG -e nee9 our &ro4lemsG though this 9oes not im&l6 that -e
shoul9 &ur&osel6 ,reate a99itional &ro4lems 0or oursel)es. !he most im&ortant 4ene0it o0 &o&ulation siLe an9
gro-th is the in,rease it 4rings to the sto,2 o0 use0ul 2no-le9ge. Min9s matter e,onomi,all6 as mu,h asG or more
thanG han9s or mouths. >rogress is limite9 largel6 46 the a)aila4ilit6 o0 traine9 -or2ers.
Opop Inevitable
'ast !o,ements to control ,erpopulation (a,e 0ailedI a,oiding social ser,ices
wonCt Ouell t(e ine,ita1le
YI, 2008Sprofessor at ,arietta ollege and director of hina 3nstit"te =Uiaoxong,
?7op"lation ontrol: 8n emerging challenge for 8merican and its leadersA 8"g"st L, *--:,
Wanes2ille 'imes Gecorder a www.marietta.ed"/news/newspdfs/WJ'G&:&L&*--:.pdfb C
'he United Kations commemorated ;orld 7op"lation Da( on >"l( )), in the shadow of
grim statistics: the world!s c"rrent pop"lations of R.+ $illion people is expected to rise to
more than . $illion $( *-)* and co"ld reach )* $illion $( *-L-. 'he United Kations!
7op"lation F"nd =UKF78C warns if we lea2e $oth pop"lation growth and associated
cons"mption "nchecked, it will lead to catastrophe&famine, energ( crises and ci2il
$reakdown in some regions as the 0ght $egins for scarce reso"rces. !he issue o0 &o&ulation
,ontrolG ho-e)erG has al-a6s 4eenG an9 remains to 4eG a &oliti,al an9 moral 4attle0iel9. 'o some, ,alth"s was right&
sooner or later, h"man acti2it( wo"ld o2erwhelm the earth!s reso"rces. 3n the earl( da(s of
the 3nd"strial Ge2ol"tion, Bnglish political economist and demographer 'homas ,alth"s,
in his )./: essa(, 1'he 7rinciple of 7op"lation,1 warned that war, epidemic and famine
were the 1ine2ita$le conse9"ences1 of a 1nat"ral law1 that "nchecked pop"lations grow
geometricall(, while food s"ppl( co"ld onl( grow arithmeticall(. :hile Malthus' Hnatural la-H has
al-a6s 4een &oliti,all6 to%i, an9 o0ten ,onsi9ere9 rea,tionar6G 9emogra&hi, -orries still run 9ee& in man6 so,ieties to9a6.
18al0 a ,entur6 agoG similar 0ears a4out the im&a,t o0 a glo4al '&o&ulation 4om4' on e,os6stems la6 4ehin9 the emergen,e o0
the mo9ern en)ironmental mo)ementIH writes Fred 7earce, an en2ironment and de2elopment
cons"ltant. H!o9a6 -e hear its e,hoes in the 0raming o0 ,on,erns a4out rising 0oo9 &ri,esG migrationG ,i)il -ars an9
,limate ,hange. Malthus -as right A it is o)er&o&ulation.1 Since energ( cons"mption is increasing at a rate
m"ch faster than energ( prod"ction and most energ( comes from non&renewa$le so"rces,
these neo&,alth"sians see a glo$al catastrophe more imminent than e2er. 'o othersG the roa9
to ,ontrolling &o&ulation in the +*th ,entur6 -as &a)e9 -ith goo9 intentionsG 4ut un&leasant &oli,ies that 9i9 not -or2. 3n
his new $ook, 1Fatal ,isconception,1 for example, ,atthew Connell6G &ro0essor o0 histor6 at Colum4ia
Uni)ersit6G has summariLe9 the +*thA,entur6 international mo)ement to ,ontrol &o&ulation as Ha humanitarian mo)ement gone
terri4l6 a-r6.H 8ccording to onnell(, the reason that the glo4al mo)ement to ,ontrol &o&ulation has 0aile9 to 9eli)er
the &romise9 e,onomi, an9 en)ironmental results Hha9 its roots in an uneas6 ,oalition 4et-een 0eministsG humanitarians an9
en)ironmentalistsG -ho -ishe9 to hel& the un-illing 0e,un9G an9 the ra,istsG eugeni,ists an9 militarists -ho -ishe9 to see
&arti,ular &atterns o0 re&ro9u,tionG regar9less o0 the 9esires o0 those in)ol)e9.H !he &o&ulation ,ontrol mo)ement,
onnell( arg"es, -as ne)er a real Hmo)ementH Asome &ro&onents o0 the mo)ement thought it -as the 2e6 to -omen's
health an9 -ellA4eingG others sa- it as a -a6 to eliminate the &oor &o&ulationG still others 4elie)e9 it -oul9 &rote,t the
en)ironment.
Opop Inevitable
,erpopulation ine,ita1lePe,en e)treme measures canCt (alt it
2ampbell, *t4 @o$eph *collar! ;all, ,:
V3oelG !o& o0 the thG Ma6 +*G htt&"##9ieo00.org#&age14+.htmW
'his part of the pop"lation represented the (o"ng children who ha2e not (et entered their $irthing
(ears which $rings "s to (et another term, 1Demographic ,oment"m1. Demographic ,oment"m is
the a$ilit( for a pop"lation to contin"e expanding despite reprod"cti2e rates $eing red"ced. =6e(
'ermsC %asicall(, this means that e2en if extreme meas"res are taken to lower reprod"cti2e rates,
the pop"lation will still s"cceed in growing d"e to the 1large proportion of o"r pop"lation entering
their reprod"cti2e (ears1 =6e( 'ermsC.Stopping sex altogether wo"ld $e an impossi$ilit(, therefore
we m"st concentrate o"r eDorts on assisting co"ples in famil( planning in order to gi2e them the
power to ha2e as man( or as little n"m$er of children as the( want.
No Carrying Capacity
TH" -N-"'T @ Y-AEEFING -A'A-ITFY ?"SNRT A''AF T H2!ANSI TH"E"
SI!'AF AE" T !ANF DAEIA%A"S* @AIAING "-AGI-AA ?"@INITINS* AN?
A 'E AGISTI-S
@2erpop"lation.com, 8GGM3KO 8783'M, >"l( ):, *--+, p.
http://www.o2erpop"lation.com/fa9/
ohen reaches the correct concl"sion that the 1carr(ing capacit(1 concept has extremel(
limited applications to h"man $eings. 8s ohen notes, the $asic ecological de0nitions fail
o"tright. 'he logistical c"r2e has $een horrendo"sl( wrong at predicting h"man
pop"lation trends; no$od( has an( idea what the a2erage pop"lation si#e is when h"man
pop"lation neither grows nor declines since it has (et to stop growing; and 5ie$ig!s law of
the minim"m fails to take into acco"nt h"man!s a$ilit( to s"$stit"te reso"rces =ohen
)//R, pp.*LR&.C.
TH"E" AE" T !ANF -HANGING DAEIA%A"SI T ?"@IN" N" SINGA"
-AEEFING -A'A-ITF IS SH""E @AAF
@2erpop"lation.com, 8GGM3KO 8783'M, >"l( ):, *--+, p.
http://www.o2erpop"lation.com/fa9/
Un9er the right ,on9itionsG 0or e%am&leG it is &lausi4le to imagine the -orl9 su&&orting 15 4illion &eo&le. Un9er other
,on9itions it is har9 to imagine the -orl9 su&&orting e)en 14illion &eo&le. !here are so man6 )aria4lesG all su4=e,t to ,hange
-ithout noti,eG -hi,h a00e,t the &otential ma%imum num4er o0 human 4eingsG that to tal2 o0 a single o4=e,ti)e ,arr6ing
,a&a,it6 is sheer 0oll6.
Adaptation Solves
!*&+ACIA" +"+(S @ /.S@*/0. (/@<L.&SD 2. "@AE .FIAB*IS! +/. @*/S.L-.S
3ulian SimonG >ro0essor o0 ?usiness A9ministration at the Uni)ersit6 o0 Mar6lan9 an9 a mem4er o0 the A,ton
Institute A9)isor6 ?oar9G !8$ U/!IMA!$ <$S(U<C$ II" >$(>/$G MA!$<IA/SG AND !8$
$NSI<(NM$N!G 5668G htt&"##---.=uliansimon.,om#-ritings#UltimateZ<esour,e#!C8A<*4?.t%t
(ur -hole e)olution u& to this &oint sho-s that human grou&s s&ontaneousl6 e)ol)e &atterns o0 4eha)iorG as -ell
as &atterns o0 training &eo&le 0or that 4eha)iorG -hi,h ten9 on 4alan,e to lea9 &eo&le to create rather than
destroy. 8umans areG on net 4alan,eG 4uil9ers rather than 9estro6ers. !he e)i9en,e is ,lear" the ,i)iliLation
-hi,h our an,estors ha)e 4equeathe9 to us ,ontains more ,reate9 -or2s than the ,i)iliLation the6 -ere
4equeathe9. In shortG human2in9 has e)ol)e9 into ,reators an9 &ro4lemA sol)ers. (ur ,onstru,ti)e 4eha)ior has
,ounte9 0or more than our usingAu& an9 9estru,ti)e 4eha)iorG as seen in our in,reasing length o0 li0e an9 ri,hness
o0 ,onsum&tion. !his )ie- o0 the a)erage human as 4uil9er ,on0li,ts -ith the )ie- o0 the a)erage human as
9estro6er -hi,h un9erlies the thought o0 man6 9ooms9a6ers. Crom the latter )ie- 9eri)e su,h statements as H!he
U.S. has 5 &er,ent o0 the &o&ulationG an9 uses 4* &er,ent o0 resour,esGH -ithout re0eren,e to the ,reation o0
resour,es 46 the same U.S. &o&ulation. VAlso in)ol)e9 here is a )ie- o0 resour,es as &h6si,al quantities -aiting
0or the &lu,2ingG rather than as the ser)i,es that human2in9 9eri)es 0rom some ,om4ination o0 2no-le9ge -ith
&h6si,al ,on9itions.W I0 one noti,es onl6 the usingAu& an9 9estru,ti)e a,ti)ities o0 human2in9G -ithout
un9erstan9ing that ,onstru,ti)e &atterns o0 4eha)ior must ha)e 4een the 9ominant &art o0 our in9i)i9ualA,umA
so,ial nature in or9er 0or us to ha)e sur)i)e9 to this &ointG then it is not sur&rising that one -oul9 arri)e at the
,on,lusion that resour,es -ill gro- s,ar,er in the 0uture. >ara9o%i,all6G rules an9 ,ustoms that lea9 to
&o&ulation gro-th rather than to &o&ulation sta4ilit6 or 9e,line ma6 4e &art o0 our inherite9 ,a&a,it6 to 9eal
su,,ess0ull6 -ith resour,e &ro4lems in the long runG though the a99e9 &eo&le ma6 e%a,er4ate the &ro4lems in the
short run. Su,h rules an9 ,ustoms &ro4a4l6 lea9 to longArun su,,ess o0 a so,iet6 in t-o -a6s. CirstG high 0ertilit6
lea9s to in,rease9 ,han,es o0 sur)i)al o0 the grou&G ,eteris &ari4usI the >arsis in In9ia seem 9oome9 to 9isa&&ear
in the long run 9ue to restri,ti)e marriage an9 0ertilit6 &atternsG though in9i)i9uall6 the6 ha)e 4een )er6
su,,ess0ul e,onomi,all6. Se,on9G high 0ertilit6 lea9s to resour,e &ro4lems -hi,h then lea9 to solutions to the
&ro4lems -hi,h usuall6 lea)e humanit6 4etter o00 in the long run than i0 the &ro4lems ha9 ne)er arisen. !hir9G in
a more 9ire,t ,hain o0 e)entsG rules an9 ,ustoms lea9ing to high 0ertilit6 0it together -ith the &ositi)e e00e,t o0
a99itional &eo&le on &ro9u,ti)it6G 4oth through the 9eman9 0or goo9s an9 through the su&&l6 o0 ingenious min9sG
that I 9is,uss at length in re,ent 4oo2s.
AT: Opop Impact
''2AATIN I!'A-TS "XAGG"EAT"? AN? "!'IEI-AAAF ?IS'ED"N
3ulian SimonG >ro0essor o0 ?usiness A9ministration at the Uni)ersit6 o0 Mar6lan9 an9 a mem4er o0 the A,ton
Institute A9)isor6 ?oar9GG !8$ U/!IMA!$ <$S(U<C$ II" >$(>/$G MA!$<IA/SG AND !8$
$NSI<(NM$N!G 18G
htt&"##---.=uliansimon.,om#-ritings#UltimateZ<esour,e#!C8A<17.t%t
Me9ia e%&osure. AntiAnatalit6 )ie-s get enormousl6 more e%&osure than &roAnatalit6 or neutralist )ie-s. >aul
$hrli,h has re&eate9l6 4een on the 3ohnn6 Carson sho- 0or an un&re,e9ente9 hourI no one -ho hol9s ,ontrar6
)ie-s gets su,h me9ia e%&osure. !his is also ,lear 0rom a ,asual anal6sis o0 the titles o0 arti,les liste9 in the
<ea9er's 7ui9e to >erio9i,al /iterature. Mone6. !he lea9ers o0 &o&ulation agen,ies that ha)e )ast sums o0
mone6 at their 9is&osal A UNC>A an9 USAID A ta2e as their goal the re9u,tion o0 &o&ulation gro-th in the &oorer
,ountries. S,ientists -ho -or2 in &o&ulation stu9ies an9 -ho ha)e a reasona4le 9egree o0 ,areer &ru9en,e are not
li2el6 to go out o0 their -a6 to o00en9 su,h &o-er0ul &otential &atrons. In9i)i9uals an9 organiLations hit,h all 2in9s
o0 resear,h &ro=e,ts to this mone6Astar. CurthermoreG )arious agen,ies su,h as UNCA( realiLe that their o-n
4u9gets -ill 4e larger i0 the &u4li, an9 go)ernment o00i,ials 4elie)e that there are 0earsome im&en9ing 9angers
0rom &o&ulation gro-thG en)ironmental 9isasterG an9 star)ation. !here0oreG their &u4li,it6 organs &la6 u& these
threats. Stan9ar9s o0 &roo0 an9 o0 rhetori,. !he stan9ar9 o0 &roo0 9eman9e9 o0 those -ho o&&ose the &o&ular
)ie- is mu,h mu,h more e%a,ting than is the stan9ar9 o0 &roo0 9eman9e9 o0 those -ho share the &o&ular )ie-.
(ne e%am&le" De,a9es ago the s,ienti0i, &ro,e9ure o0 the /imits to 7ro-th stu96 -as ,on9emne9 46 e)er6
e,onomist -ho re)ie-e9 itG to m6 2no-le9ge. Det its 0in9ings are still a,,laime9 an9 retaile9 46 the H&o&ulation
,ommunit6.H ?ut i0 I sa6 that the -orl9 0oo9 situation has 4een im&ro)ing 6ear 46 6earG 6ou -ill either sa6 H>ro)e
itGH or HI -on't 4elie)e it.H (r ,onsi9er an a9)ertisement run in national ne-s&a&ers V0igure 17A+W. No one as2s 0or
&roo0 o0 the statements in that a9)ertisement. Cigure 17A+ CurthermoreG antiA9ooms9a6 &eo&le are in a 9ou4le
4in9 rhetori,all6. !he 9ooms9a6ers s&ea2 in e%,ite9G angr6G highA&it,he9 )oi,esG using language su,h as Camine
175M !he6 sa6 that su,h ta,ti,s are a,,e&ta4le 4e,ause H-e are 0a,e9 -ith a ,risis...the seriousness o0 -hi,h
,annot 4e e%aggerate9.H !he 0ears the6 ins&ire generate lots o0 su&&ort mone6 0rom the UNG AIDG an9 &o&ular
0un9Araising ,am&aigns in 0ullA&age a9)ertisements. Man6 antiA9ooms9a6 &eo&leG on the other han9G s&ea2 in
quiet )oi,es A as reassuran,e usuall6 soun9s. !he6 ten9 to 4e ,are0ul &eo&le. An9 the6 are totall6 ignore9. !he
great geologist @irtle6 C. Mather -rote a 4oo2 ,alle9 $nough an9 !o S&are in 144 that reassure9 the &u4li, that
resour,es -oul9 4e &lenti0ulI it -as -ith9ra-n 0rom the Uni)ersit6 o0 Illinois li4rar6 =ust t-i,e A in 145 an9 15+
A &rior to m6 177 -ith9ra-al. ?ut there are literall6 arm0uls o0 4oo2s su,h as Cair0iel9 (s4orn's 151 /imits o0
the $arth that ha)e 4een rea9 )astl6 more 0requentl6. $)en a 4oo2 &u4lishe9 46 a )anit6 &ress an9 -ritten 46 a
retire9 arm6 ,olonel -ho has Malthus's 0irst name as H<i,har9H an9 -ho 4elie)es that ()er&o&ulation Vthe title o0
the 4oo2W is a &lot o0 the H@remlin gangstersH ha9 4een -ith9ra-n ten times 4et-een 171 an9 18* V-hen I
,he,2e9WG an9 untol9 more times 4et-een its 158 &u4li,ation an9 171G -hen the ,harge sli& -as ,hange9.
AT: Opop Impact
N S-I"NTI@I- S2''ET @E ''2AATIN I!'A-TS
3ulian SimonG >ro0essor o0 ?usiness A9ministration at the Uni)ersit6 o0 Mar6lan9 an9 a mem4er o0 the A,ton
Institute A9)isor6 ?oar9GG !8$ U/!IMA!$ <$S(U<C$ II" >$(>/$G MA!$<IA/SG AND !8$
$NSI<(NM$N!G 18G
http://www.juliansimon.com/writings/Ultimate_Resource/TCHAR38.txt
!he e9itor o0 the -orl9's most im&ortant s,ienti0i, =ournal re&eats in e9itorial a0ter e9itorial that HIn,reasing &o&ulation an9 in,reasing in9ustrialiLation &ose threats to the
en)ironment... !he &o&ulation e%&losion has to mo)e to to& &riorit6H. 8e ,alls 0or H&rograms 0or e00e,ti)e &o&ulation ,ontrolH. An9 he insists that -e must un9erta2e Hrestri,tions
to our 0ree9omsH su,h as mo)ing ,loser to ea,h other in the ,itiesG an9 9ri)e 0e-er ,arsG in or9er to sto& H9ooming our e,os6stemHG H&reser)e agri,ulture lan9sHG an9 a)oi9 Hthe
energ6 ,risis that is 4oun9 to ,ome in the notAtooA 9istant 0uture.H All this is -ritten -ithout an6 su&&orting 9ata as i0 there ,annot 4e an6 question a4out these &ro&ositions A 4ut in
star2 ,ontra9i,tion to the 9ata an9 anal6sis o0 arti,les that ha)e a&&eare9 in that ha9 a&&eare9 earlier in the same =ournal. !he message is that the 9anger is so
great that -e shoul9 not 4other -ith the or9inar6 e)i9ential &ro,e9ures o0 s,ien,e. I0 su,h o&inions are not
s,ienti0i,G then -hat is the reasoning 4ehin9 themU $arlier ,ha&ters suggeste9 some e%&lanations 0or &eo&le's
9ooms9a6 0ears a4out mineralsG 0oo9G an9 energ6AAes&e,iall6 the se9u,ti)el6 sim&le t-in notions o0 a 0i%e9 sto,2
o0 resour,es an9 the Hla-H o0 9iminishing returns. !his ,ha&ter 0o,uses on e%&lanations 0or 9ooms9a6 0ears a4out
&o&ulation gro-thG though all su,h 0ears ha)e mu,h in ,ommon. !he 9is,ussion is trun,ate9 4e,ause a s,ant
treatment here is 4etter than no treatment at all. !he reasoning 4ehin9 these mattersG together -ith a 9is,ussion o0
the &oliti,sG requires an entire 4oo2 to e%&lain. I ho&e that su,h a 4oo2 is 0orth,oming soon. (ne t6&e o0
HreasoningH 4ehin9 s,ar6 4elie0s a4out &o&ulation gro-th turns out to 4e ,ir,ular reasoningG -hi,h amounts to no
reasoning at all. ?a9 ne-s 0ee9s on itsel0. @oshlan9 himsel0 ,hi9es others 0or unne,essar6 Hgloom an9 9oomH
4e,auseG as he notes ,orre,tl6G HSome &eo&le en=o6 gloom. ?a9 ne-s sells ne-s&a&ers.H VMa64e this means he
has ,hange9 his min9 a4out &o&ulationG resour,esG an9 the en)ironmentG though I ha)e not seen an6 su,h
statement.W :hat H$)er6one @no-sHAAthe Si,ious Cir,le It is a truism Vnot trueG o0 ,ourseW that resour,es are
getting more s,ar,eG an9 that &o&ulation gro-th e%a,er4ates the &ro4lem. Dou ha)e rea9 numerous e%am&les o0
su,h statements in &re)ious ,ha&ters 46 &ersons -ho are su&&ose9l6 e%&erts. !hese &essimisti, assertions ha)e
4e,ome so a,,e&te9 that eminent &eo&le in other 0iel9s treat them as assum&tions in their o-n -or2G on an
He)er6one 2no-sH 4asis A the -a6 e)er6one 2no-s that -ithout sunshine the 0lo-ers -ill not gro-. 3ust a 0e-
e%am&les o0 &ersons &u4li,l6 9e,r6ing &o&ulation gro-th A e)en signing &etitions to the >resi9ent an9 en9orsing 0ullA&age a9)ertisements that run in the nation's
mostA rea9 ne-s&a&ers A that I ha)e stum4le9 a,ross in ,asual rea9ing" No4el agronomist Norman ?orlaugI so,io4iologist $9-ar9 :ilsonI author Isaa, Asimo)I ,olumnist 3a,2 An9ersonI No4el &h6si,ists
Murra6 7ellAMann an9 :illiam Sho,2le6I An9rei Sa2haro)I 4as2et4all &la6er :ilt Cham4erlainI ,olumnist Ann /an9ersI her sisterG ,olumnist HDear A446HI an9 3ohn D. <o,2e0eller III. Chil9ren's singer <a00i
Ca)ou2ian sa6s HI ,learl6 ha)e hear9 the urgen,6 o0 the $arth's ,r6...I reall6 hear9 it to e)er6 ,ell o0 m6 4o96.H !he 8ammon9 :orl9 Atlas sa6s that Hthe )i,tor6 o)er natureG -hi,h ha9 4alan,e9 &o&ulation -ith
0oo9 su&&l6 an9 s&a,eG is 4itterG 0or the &o&ulation has [e%&lo9e9'.H No4el &riLeA-inners su,h as /inus >auling an9 :assil6 /eontie0 e)en ser)e on the 4oar9 o0 9ire,tors o0 an organiLation ,laiming that
Hen)ironmental 9egra9ationG tra00i, =amsG 9eteriorating in0rastru,ture an9 homelessnessH are e)i9en,e 0or Hthe &rimar6 ,ause o0 these &ro4lems A o)er&o&ulation.H An9 there is a 4u,2et moreG in,lu9ing
ne-s&a&er e9itorial -ritersG U.S. senators an9 re&resentati)es. During his ,am&aign 0or the &resi9en,6 an9 then the )i,e &resi9en,6 o0
the Unite9 StatesG Al 7ore sai9 that Hthe $arth's en)ironment must an9 -ill 4e,ome the ,entral organiLing
&rin,i&le o0 the &ostACol9 :ar -orl9GH tol9 the Ameri,an Statisti,al Asso,iation o0 Ha 9ramati, ,hange in the
relationshi& 4et-een the human s&e,ies an9 the earthHG an9 sai9 that o0 the ,auses HNum4er one NisQ &o&ulationHI
an9 then the statisti,ians 0ete9 him 9es&ite his 4eing as 4a9 an a4user o0 statisti,sG -hen -riting a4out this su4=e,tG
as an6 &erson in &u4li, li0e.
Malthus Immoral
IES A@ &@/+LLG H*SIII." @ .&</+0. ".+! @ S@L-. (@(*L+I@A (/@<L.&S
3ulian SimonG >ro0essor o0 ?usiness A9ministration at the Uni)ersit6 o0 Mar6lan9 an9 a mem4er o0 the A,ton
Institute A9)isor6 ?oar9GG !8$ U/!IMA!$ <$S(U<C$ II" >$(>/$G MA!$<IA/SG AND !8$
$NSI<(NM$N!G 5668G htt&"##---.=uliansimon.,om#-ritings#UltimateZ<esour,e#!><$CAC$.t%t
!he longer I ha)e rea9 the literature a4out &o&ulationG the more 4a00le9 an9 9istresse9 I ha)e 4e,ome that one i9ea
is omitte9" $na4ling a &otential human 4eing to ,ome into li0e an9 to en=o6 li0e is a goo9 thingG =ust as &rote,ting a
li)ing &erson's li0e 0rom 4eing en9e9 is a goo9 thing. (0 ,ourse a 9eath is not the same as an a)erte9 li0eG in large
&art 4e,ause others 0eel 9i00erentl6 a4out the t-o. Det I 0in9 no logi, im&li,it in the thin2ing o0 those -ho are
horri0ie9 at the star)ation o0 a ,om&arati)el6 0e- &eo&le in a 0ara-a6 ,ountr6 Van9 a&&arentl6 more horri0ie9 than
at the 9eaths 46 &oliti,al mur9er in that same 0ara-a6 ,ountr6G or at the 9eaths 46 a,,i9ents in their o-n ,ountr6W
4ut -ho are &ositi)el6 glee0ul -ith the thought that 1 million or 1* million times that man6 li)es -ill ne)er 4e
li)e9 that might 4e li)e9.
!.I/ 2!@L. +/B*&.A IS <+S." @A +A I&&@/+L +AI-LII. .!I0D 2. S!@*L" -+L*.
LII.
3ulian SimonG >ro0essor o0 ?usiness A9ministration at the Uni)ersit6 o0 Mar6lan9 an9 a mem4er o0 the A,ton
Institute A9)isor6 ?oar9GG !8$ U/!IMA!$ <$S(U<C$ II" >$(>/$G MA!$<IA/SG AND !8$
$NSI<(NM$N!G 18G htt&"##---.=uliansimon.,om#-ritings#UltimateZ<esour,e#!><$CAC$.t%t
I ,an suggest to Da)is an9 $hrli,h more than one reason 0or ha)ing more ,hil9ren an9 ta2ing in more immigrants.
/east im&ortant is that the larger &o&ulation -ill &ro4a4l6 mean a higher stan9ar9 o0 li)ing 0or our gran9,hil9ren
an9 greatA gran9,hil9ren. VM6 te,hni,al 177 an9 1+ 4oo2s an9 a goo9 man6 ,ha&ters in this 4oo2 su4stantiate
that assertion.W A more interesting reason is that -e nee9 another &erson 0or e%a,tl6 the same reason -e nee9
Da)is an9 $hrli,h. !hat isG =ust as the Da)ises an9 $hrli,hs o0 this -orl9 are o0 )alue to the rest o0 usG so -ill the
a)erage a99itional &erson 4e o0 )alue. !he most interesting reason 0or ha)ing a99itional &eo&leG ho-e)erG is
this" I0 the Da)ises an9 $hrli,hs sa6 that their li)es are o0 )alue to themsel)esG an9 i0 the rest o0 us honor that
,laim an9 sa6 that our li)es are o0 )alue to usG then in the same manner the li)es o0 a99itional &eo&le -ill 4e o0
)alue to those &eo&le themsel)es. :h6 shoul9 -e not honor their ,laimsG tooU I0 Da)is or $hrli,h -ere to as2 those +1 million Ameri,ans 4orn 4et-een 16* an9 17* -hether it
-as a goo9 thing that the6 -ere 4ornG man6 o0 them -oul9 4e a4le to thin2 o0 a goo9 reason or t-o. Some o0 them might also 4e so un2in9 as to a99G HDesG it's true that 6ou gentlemen 9o not &ersonall6 nee9 an6
o0 us 0or 6our o-n -el0are. ?ut thenG 9o 6ou thin2 that -e ha)e greater nee9 o0 6ouUH :hat is most astonishing is that these sim&le i9easG -hi,h -oul9 imme9iatel6 s&ring to the min9s o0 man6 -ho ,annot
rea9 or -riteG ha)e ne)er ,ome into the hea9s o0 0amous s,ientists su,h as Da)is an9 $hrli,h A 46 their o-n a9mission. An9 46 re&eating the assertion in 11G $hrli,h ma2es it ,lear that he 9oes not ,onsi9er
the a4o)e i9easG -hi,h I suggeste9 to him earlierG to 4e Hsensi4leH. !he a4sen,e o0 this 4asi, )alue 0or human li0e also is at the 4ottom o0 $hrli,h's -ellA2no-n restatement o0 >as,al's -ager. HI0 I'm rightG -e
-ill sa)e the -orl9 N46 ,ur4ing &o&ulation gro-thQ. I0 I'm -rongG &eo&le -ill still 4e 4etter 0e9G 4etter house9G an9 ha&&ierG than2s to our e00orts. NAll the e)i9en,e suggests that he is -rong.Q :ill an6thing 4e lost
i0 it turns out later that -e ,an su&&ort a mu,h larger &o&ulation than seems &ossi4le to9a6UH >lease note ho- 9i00erent is >as,al's -ager" /i)e as i0 there is 7o9G 4e,ause e)en i0 there is no 7o9 6ou ha)e lost
nothing. >as,al's -ager a&&lies entirel6 to one &erson. No one else loses i0 s#he is -rong. ?ut $hrli,h 4ets -hat he thin2s -ill 4e the e,onomi, gains that -e an9 our 9es,en9ants might en=o6 against the un4orn's
)er6 li)es. :oul9 he ma2e the same sort o0 -ager i0 his o-n li0e rather than others' li)es -ere the sta2eU VCha&ter 4* has more to sa6 a4out the moralit6 o0 4etting other &eo&le's li)es.W I 9o not
sa6 that so,iet6 shoul9 ne)er tra9e o00 human li0e 0or animals or e)en 0or nonAli)ing things. In9ee9G so,iet6
e%&li,itl6 ma2es e%a,tl6 this tra9eo00 -hen a 0ire0ighter's li0e is lost &rote,ting a 4uil9ing or a 0orest or a LooG an9
neither I nor har9l6 an6one else sa6s it shoul9 not 4e so.
Population Predictions Bad
Aong term population predictions 0ail
78U5 DB,BKM 7op"lation F"t"res for the Kext 'hree 4"ndred Mears: Soft 5anding or
S"rprises to omeQ 7@7U58'3@K 8KD DBJB5@7,BK' GBJ3B; H-=HC: Septem$er *--+,
L-:
:hat &lausi4le limits areG o0 ,ourseG is in the e6e o0 the 4ehol9erG 4ut 0e- -oul9 9is&ute that the UN;s +**+
re)isions 0or +*5*o00ering a glo4al me9ium &o&ulation 0igure o0 8. 4illionG 4ra,2ete9 46 a lo- o0 7.4 4illion
an9 a high o0 1*.6 4illion&ro)i9e a range that is su00i,ientl6 narro- to 6iel9 meaning0ul in0ormation. !o 4e
sureG ea,h o0 these 0igures is the result o0 -hatG using the late 8erman @ahn;s la4elG ma6 4e 9es,ri4e9 as
sur&riseA0reeG an9 o0 ,ourse none more so than the one in the mi99le. !he 0uture time &aths o0 the go)erning
)aria4les are smoothI i0 there are an6 gentle 4um&s in the &ro=e,te9 &o&ulation 0iguresG
No Resource Shortages
2. +/. 0@AS+ALG IA !. (/@0.SS @I ".-.L@(IAB A.2 /.S@*/0.S +A" S*((LI.S
3ulian SimonG >ro0essor o0 ?usiness A9ministration at the Uni)ersit6 o0 Mar6lan9 an9 a mem4er o0 the A,ton
Institute A9)isor6 ?oar9 !8$ U/!IMA!$ <$S(U<C$ II" >$(>/$G MA!$<IA/SG AND !8$ $NSI<(NM$N!G
18G htt&"##---.=uliansimon.,om#-ritings#UltimateZ<esour,e#!IN!<(.t%t
!here is an almost insu&era4le 9i00i,ult6 in the 9e0inition o0 a)aila4le H,o&&erGH HoilGH an9 so onG 4e,ause there are
man6 9i00erent gra9es o0 ea,h resour,e in &la,es that )ar6 in 9i00i,ult6 o0 e%tra,ting the resour,eG an9 4e,ause Vas
seen in !a4le +A1W the amounts at lo- ,on,entrations Vsu,h as the quantities o0 metals on the sea 4ottom an9 in sea
-aterW are e%traor9inaril6 large in ,ontrast to the quantities -e usuall6 ha)e in min9 Vthe H&ro)en reser)esHW.
:hat's moreG -e ,onstantl6 ,reate ne- su&&lies o0 resour,esG in the sense o0 9is,o)ering them -here the6 -ere
thought not to e%ist. VIn the &astG the U.S. 7eologi,al Sur)e6 an9 others thought that there -as no oil in Cali0ornia
or !e%as. (0tenG ne- su&&lies o0 a resour,e ,ome 0rom areas outsi9e the a,,ustome9 4oun9aries o0 our s6stemG as
resour,es 0rom other ,ontinents ,ame to $uro&e in &ast ,enturies an9 as resour,es ma6 in the 0uture 4e 4rought
0rom the sea or 0rom other &lanets. Ne- su&&lies also arise -hen a resour,e is ,reate9 0rom other materialsG =ust as
grain is gro-n an9 nu,lear 0uel is H4re9.H V8ere -e must a)oi9 getting hung u& on the -or9 HnaturalGH as in
Hnatural resour,es.HW
W" -E"AT" N"W E"S2E-" S2''AI"S AS W" G
3ulian SimonG >ro0essor o0 ?usiness A9ministration at the Uni)ersit6 o0 Mar6lan9 an9 a mem4er o0 the A,ton
Institute A9)isor6 ?oar9 !8$ U/!IMA!$ <$S(U<C$ II" >$(>/$G MA!$<IA/SG AND !8$ $NSI<(NM$N!G
18G htt&"##---.=uliansimon.,om#-ritings#UltimateZ<esour,e#!IN!<(.t%t
?ut there are other -a6s o0 a99ing to our ra-Amaterial su&&lies 4esi9es e%&loration. :e must ,onstantl6 struggle
against the illusion that ea,h time -e ta2e a &oun9 o0 ,o&&er 0rom the earth there is less le0t to 4e use9 in the
0uture. !oo o0ten -e )ie- natural resour,es as -e )ie- the o&eration o0 a single ,o&&er mine" Dig some oreG an9
less is le0t. :e must ,onstantl6 remem4er that -e ,reate ne- mines an9 re&lenish the in)entor6 o0 ,o&&er. !he
ne- HminesH ma6 4e some-hat 9i00erent 0rom the ol9 ones A re,6,le9 metal 0rom 9um&sG 0or e%am&le A 4ut the ne-
sour,es ma6 4e 4etter rather than -orseG so qualit6 is not a ne,essar6 ,ause 0or ,on,ern. In e%a,tl6 the same -a6
that -e manu0a,ture &a&er ,li&s or 8ulaAhoo&sG -e ,reate ne- su&&lies o0 ,o&&er. !hat isG -e e%&en9 timeG
,a&italG an9 ra- materials to get them. $)en more im&ortantG -e 0in9 ne- -a6s to su&&l6 the ser)i,es that an
e%&ensi)e &ro9u,t Vor resour,eW ren9ersG as -e shall see shortl6.
No Resource Shortages
Ao scarcity
3ulian SimonG >ro0essor o0 ?usiness A9ministration at the Uni)ersit6 o0 Mar6lan9 an9 a mem4er o0 the A,ton
Institute A9)isor6 ?oar9GG !8$ U/!IMA!$ <$S(U<C$ II" >$(>/$G MA!$<IA/SG AND !8$
$NSI<(NM$N!G 18G htt&"##---.=uliansimon.,om#-ritings#UltimateZ<esour,e#!C8A<+8.t%t
Dou might -on9er" $)en i0 the &ros&e,t o0 running out o0 energ6 an9 minerals is smallG is it sa0e to 9e&en9 on the
,ontinuation o0 te,hni,al &rogressU Can -e 4e sure that te,hnologi,al &rogress -ill ,ontinue to 0orestall gro-ing
s,ar,it6 an9 e)en in,rease the a)aila4ilit6 o0 natural resour,esU :oul9 it not 4e &ru9ent to a)oi9 e)en a small
&ossi4ilit6 o0 a ma=or s,ar,it6 9isasterU :oul9 it not 4e less ris26 to ,ur4 &o&ulation gro-th to a)oi9 the mere
&ossi4ilit6 o0 naturalAresour,e s,ar,ities e)en i0 the ,han,es reall6 are goo9 that higher &o&ulation -ill lea9 to
lo-er ,ostsU A reasona4le &erson ma6 4e Hris2 a)erse.H !he matter o0 ris2 a)ersion -as ,onsi9ere9 at length in
the 9is,ussion o0 nu,lear energ6 in ,ha&ter 11I it -ill also 4e ,onsi9ere9 in the ,onte%t o0 &o&ulation an9 &ollution
in ,ha&ter 1*G -here ris2 is more ,ru,ial to the argument an9 to &oli,6 9e,isions. !he rea9er intereste9 in this to&i,
shoul9 turn to those 9is,ussions. <is2 a)ersion is notG ho-e)erG )er6 rele)ant 0or natural resour,esG 0or se)eral
reasons. CirstG the ,onsequen,es o0 a gro-ing shortage o0 an6 mineral A that isG o0 a rise in relati)e &ri,e A are not
9angerous to li0e or e)en to the stan9ar9 o0 li)ingG as note9 a4o)e -ith res&e,t to energ6. Se,on9G a relati)e s,ar,it6
o0 one material engen9ers the su4stitution o0 other materials A sa6G aluminum 0or steel A an9 hen,e mitigates the
s,ar,it6. !hir9G a s,ar,it6 o0 an6 mineral -oul9 mani0est itsel0 onl6 )er6 slo-l6G gi)ing &lent6 o0 o&&ortunit6 to
alter so,ial an9 e,onomi, &oli,ies a&&ro&riatel6. CourthG =ust as greater a00luen,e an9 larger &o&ulation ,ontri4ute
to the 9eman9 0or more natural resour,esG the6 also ,ontri4ute to our ,a&a,it6 to alle)iate shortages an9 4roa9en
our te,hnologi,al an9 e,onomi, ,a&a,it6G -hi,h ma2es an6 &arti,ular material e)er less ,ru,ial. Ci0th an9 &erha&s
most im&ortantG -e alrea96 ha)e te,hnolog6 in han9 A nu,lear 0ission A to su&&l6 our energ6 nee9s at ,onstant or
9e,lining ,ost 0ore)er. $)en soG let's ne%t sa6 a -or9 a4out the a&&ro&riate le)el o0 ,on0i9en,e that &rogress -ill
,ontinue in the 0uture.
No Resource Shortages
SHETAG"S G2AEANT"" T"-HNAGF WIAA A?DAN-"
3ulian SimonG >ro0essor o0 ?usiness A9ministration at the Uni)ersit6 o0 Mar6lan9 an9 a mem4er o0 the A,ton
Institute A9)isor6 ?oar9GG !8$ U/!IMA!$ <$S(U<C$ II" >$(>/$G MA!$<IA/SG AND !8$
$NSI<(NM$N!G 18G http://www.juliansimon.com/writings/Ultimate_Resource/TCHAR8.txt
Some as2" ,an -e 2no- that there -ill 4e 9is,o)eries o0 ne- materials an9 o0 &ro9u,ti)it6Aenhan,ing te,hniques
in the 0utureU ?ehin9 the question lies the im&li,it 4elie0 that the &ro9u,tion o0 ne- te,hnolog6 9oes not 0ollo-
&re9i,ta4le &atterns o0 the same sort as the &atterns o0 &ro9u,tion o0 other &ro9u,ts su,h as ,heese an9 o&era. ?ut
there seems to me no -arrant 0or 4elie0 in su,h a 9i00eren,eG either in logi, or in em&iri,al e%&erien,e. :hen -e
a99 more ,a&ital an9 la4orG -e get more ,heeseI -e ha)e no logi,al assuran,e o0 thisG 4ut su,h has 4een our
e%&erien,eG an9 there0ore -e are &re&are9 to rel6 u&on it. !he same is true ,on,erning 2no-le9ge a4out ho- to
in,rease the 6iel9 o0 grainG ,o-sG mil2 an9 ,heese 0rom gi)en amounts o0 ,a&ital an9 la4or. I0 6ou &a6 engineers to 0in9 -a6s to sol)e a
general enough &ro4lem A 0or e%am&leG ho- to mil2 ,o-s 0asterG or -ith less la4or A the engineers &re9i,ta4l6 -ill 9o so. !here ma6 -ell 4e 9iminishing returns to a99itional in)enti)e e00ort s&ent on the same &ro4lemG =ust as there are 9iminishing
returns to the use o0 0ertiliLer an9 la4or on a gi)en 0arm in a gi)en 6ear. ?ut as entirel6 ne- 0orms o0 te,hnolog6 arise an9 are 4rought to 4ear on the ol9 &ro4lemsG the ol9 9iminishingAreturns 0un,tions then no longer a&&l6. !he -illingness o0
4usinesses to &a6 engineers an9 other in)entors to loo2 0or ne- 9is,o)eries attests to the &re9i,ta4ilit6 o0 returns to in)enti)e e00ort. !o o4tain a more intimate 0eeling 0or the &ro,essG one ma6 as2 a s,ientist or engineer -hether he#she e%&e,ts his#her
,urrent resear,h &ro=e,t to &ro9u,e results -ith greater &ro4a4ilit6 than i0 she#he sim&l6 sat in the mi99le o0 the 0orest rea9ing a 9ete,ti)e no)elI the traine9 e00ort the engineer a&&lies has a mu,h greater li2elihoo9 o0 &ro9u,ing use0ul in0ormation A an9
in9ee9G the )er6 in0ormation that is e%&e,te9 in a9)an,e A than 9oes untraine9 nonA e00ort. !his is as &re9i,ta4le in the aggregate as the 0a,t that ,o-s -ill &ro9u,e mil2G an9 that ma,hines an9 -or2ers -ill turn the mil2 into ,heese. !here0oreG to 9e&en9
u&on the 0a,t that te,hni,al 9e)elo&ments -ill ,ontinue to o,,ur in the 0uture A i0 -e ,ontinue to 9e)ote human an9 other resour,es to resear,h A is as reasona4le as it is to 9e&en9 u&on an6 other &ro9u,tion &ro,ess in our e,onom6 or ,i)iliLation. (ne
,annot &ro)e logi,all6 that te,hni,al 9e)elo&ment -ill ,ontinue in the 0uture. ?ut neither ,an one so &ro)e that ,a&ital an9 la4or an9 mil2 -ill ,ontinue to &ro9u,e ,heeseG or that the sun -ill ,ome u& tomorro-. As I see itG the onl6 li2el6 limit u&on the
&ro9u,tion o0 ne- 2no-le9ge a4out resour,es is the o,,urren,e o0 ne- &ro4lemsI -ithout unsol)e9 &ro4lems there -ill 4e no solutions. ?ut here -e ha)e a 4uiltAin insuran,e &oli,6" i0 our
ultimate interest is resour,e a)aila4ilit6G an9 i0 a)aila4ilit6 shoul9 9iminishG that automati,all6 su&&lies an
unsol)e9 &ro4lemG -hi,h then lea9s to the &ro9u,tion o0 ne- 2no-le9geG not ne,essaril6 imme9iatel6 or -ithout
shortArun 9isru&tionG 4ut in the long run. I'm not sa6ing that all &ro4lems are solu4le in the 0orms in -hi,h the6 are
&resente9. I 9o not ,laim that 4iologists -ill ma2e us immortal in our li0etimeG or e)en that the length o0 human
li0e -ill 4e 9ou4le9 or tri&le9 in the 0uture. (n the other han9G one nee9 not rule out that 4iogeneti,s ,an ,reate an
animal -ith most o0 our traits an9 a mu,h longer li0e. ?ut su,h is not the sort o0 2no-le9ge -e are intereste9 in
here. <atherG -e are intereste9 in 2no-le9ge o0 the material in&uts to our e,onomi, ,i)iliLation. A
so&histi,ate9 )ersion o0 this argument is that the ,ost o0 a99itional 2no-le9ge ma6 rise in the 0uture. Some -riters
&oint to the large teams an9 large sums no- in)ol)e9 in naturalAs,ien,e en9ea)ors. /et us noti,eG ho-e)erG ho-
mu,h ,hea&er it is to ma2e man6 9is,o)eries no- than it -as in the &ast 4e,ause o0 the e%isting 4ase o0 2no-le9ge
an9 the -hole in0ormation in0rastru,ture. Simon @uLnets ,oul9 a9)an,e 0urther -ith his resear,h on 7N>
estimates than ,oul9 :illiam >ett6. An9 a runAo0AtheAmill gra9uate stu9ent ,an no- 9o some things that >ett6
,oul9 not 9o. A99itionall6G a gi)en 9is,o)er6 is more )alua4le no- than it -as thenI 7N> measurement has more
e,onomi, im&a,t no- than in >ett6's 9a6. I ha)e ,al,ulate9 that the net &resent )alue o0 the in)ention o0
agri,ulture in so,ial terms at the time o0 9is,o)er6 -as less than the net &resent )alue no- o0 something e)en as
tri)ial as ,om&uter gamesG 4e,ause o0 the small &o&ulation an9 in,ome then V9is,ounte9 e)en at + &er,ent &er 6earW
in gross so,ial &ro9u,t 0rom the transition to nu,lear 0ission. An9 agri,ulture -as the onl6 4ig 9is,o)er6 0or
thousan9s o0 6earsG -hereas the transistor an9 nu,lear &o-er an9 lots more in)entions o,,urre9 -ithin =ust a 0e-
re,ent 9e,a9es.
Ehrlich = n00b
"EAI-HRS 'E"?I-TINS AE" @AAW"?* NT N" @ HIS 'E"?I-TINS HAD"
-!" TE2"
@2erpop"lation.com, 78U5 B4G534, >"l( ):, *--+, p.
http://www.o2erpop"lation.com/fa9/
;h( did Bhrlich!s predictions fail to come tr"eQ %eca"se the model he "sed, like almost all
those who predict dire pro$lems from pop"lation, was $asicall( Eawed. 3n &a n"tshell what
Bhrlich did was take pop"lation growth for the )/R-s and extrapolate it o"t thro"gh the
)/.-s, $"t he insisted prod"ction of reso"rces s"ch as food and water were at their limits
&&$oth wo"ld likel( decline, and certainl( not increase. Food prod"ction not onl(
increased, $"t increased faster than pop"lation growth, so *. (ears after the p"$lication of
7#e 7op"lation %om$, not onl( are there man( more people ali2e in the world, $"t the( eat
more than the( did in the past. ;ater 9"alit(, which Bhrlich $elie2ed $e(ond repair, has
also steadil( impro2ed.
A2THES 'E"?I-TING GA%AA -ATASTE'H" %"-A2S" @ ''2AATIN
GEWTH W"E" WENG AN? IGNE"? TH" -2ES" @ H2!AN 'EGE"SS IN
TH" AAST 24 F"AES
@2erpop"lation.com, ;48' 4877BKBD '@ 8'@S'G@743 7GBD3'3@KS ,8DB .&%M
G8D385 BKJ3G@K,BK'853S'SQ, >"l( ):, *--+, p. http://www.o2erpop"lation.com/fa9/;
D"ring the )/R-s and earl( )/.-s a cottage ind"str( emerged for $ooks predicting a
glo$al catastrophe ca"sed $( pop"lation growth =more than one o$ser2er has noted the
real o2erpop"lation pro$lem seemed to $e in the (earl( growth of these $ooks f"ll of their
doom and gloom scenariosC. From o"r 2iew in the mid&)//-s, these a"thors were not
simpl( wrong, $"t the( grossl( "nderestimated the co"rse of h"man progress o2er the last
9"arter cent"r(. 'heir $est case scenarios didn!t e2en come close to $oth the economic
growth and the inroads made against h"nger, poll"tion and other pro$lems that face the
world. 3toften seemed the ps(chics hired $( the Kational Bn9"irer were more acc"rate
than those who ha2e made a profession o2er the last three decades of constantl(
predicting disaster d"e to o2erpop"lation. Met man( of these failed prophets, s"ch as 7a"l
Bhrlich and 5ester %rown, contin"e to p"$lish $ooks containing predictions of glo$al
disaster. 3t was more than a little ironic that Bhrlich was a$le to p"$lish $ooks in the )//-s
predicting glo$al disaster, since according to his pre2io"s predictions, "p to a $illion
people were s"pposed to die in the )/.-s and )/:-s leading to the collapse of ind"strial
societ(.
Market Solves
SCA<CI!D CAUS$S S8(<!A!$<M ><IC$S INC<$AS$S AND !8$ S$A<C8 C(< A/!$<NA!IS$S
3ulian SimonG >ro0essor o0 ?usiness A9ministration at the Uni)ersit6 o0 Mar6lan9 an9 a mem4er o0 the A,ton
Institute A9)isor6 ?oar9G !8$ U/!IMA!$ <$S(U<C$ II" >$(>/$G MA!$<IA/SG AND !8$
$NSI<(NM$N!G 18G htt&"##---.=uliansimon.,om#-ritings#UltimateZ<esour,e#!IN!<(.t%t
No- I'll restate this line o0 thought into a theor6 that -ill a&&ear again an9 again in the 4oo2" More &eo&leG an9
in,rease9 in,omeG ,ause resour,es to 4e,ome more s,ar,e in the short run. 8eightene9 s,ar,it6 ,auses &ri,es to
rise. !he higher &ri,es &resent o&&ortunit6G an9 &rom&t in)entors an9 entre&reneurs to sear,h 0or solutions. Man6
0ail in the sear,hG at ,ost to themsel)es. ?ut in a 0ree so,iet6G solutions are e)entuall6 0oun9. An9 in the long run
the ne- 9e)elo&ments lea)e us 4etter o00 than i0 the &ro4lems ha9 not arisen. !hat isG &ri,es e)entuall6 4e,ome
lo-er than 4e0ore the in,rease9 s,ar,it6 o,,urre9. It is allAim&ortant to re,ogniLe that 9is,o)eries o0 im&ro)e9
metho9s an9 o0 su4stitute &ro9u,ts
Population Growth GoodDisease
Hig( population growt(Rs &e+ to pre,ent disease spread
3ulian SimonG >ro0essor o0 ?usiness A9ministration at the Uni)ersit6 o0 Mar6lan9 an9 a mem4er o0 the A,ton
Institute A9)isor6 ?oar9GG !8$ U/!IMA!$ <$S(U<C$ II" >$(>/$G MA!$<IA/SG AND !8$
$NSI<(NM$N!G 18G
htt&"##---.=uliansimon.,om#-ritings#UltimateZ<esour,e#!C8A<1+.t%t
Su,h o,,u&ation 9eman9e9 a high 9ensit6 o0 &o&ulation an9 a ,om&lete ,ontrol o0 lan9 useG an9 hen,e the
inter9e&en9en,e o0 a highl6 organiLe9 agri,ultural s6stem Vitsel0 a 0un,tion o0 soil qualit6G relia4le ,limate an9 a
,ertain 9egree o0 te,hni,al ,om&eten,eWG a 9ense &o&ulation an9 an a9)an,e9 &oliti,al organiLation....It is also
9i00i,ult to im&ro)e sanitation an9 health in s&arsel6 &eo&le9 areasI antiAmalarial ,am&aigns stan9 4ut small ,han,e
o0 lasting su,,essG -hilst the tsetse 0l6 0in9s su,h areas )er6 mu,h to its li2ingG 0or it is im&ossi4le 0or a &o&ulation
o0 ten or a 9oLen &ersons to the square mile to 2ee& 9o-n the )egetation to a le)el un0a)ora4le to this inse,t. 8ealth
ser)i,es are 9i00i,ult to maintainG an9 9o,tors an9 hos&itals are ine)ita4l6 0ar remo)e9 0rom &atients -hilst e9u,ation is almost im&ossi4le. !he 9ata in ta4le 1+A1 su&&ort 7ourou's argumentG sho-ing that a lo- &o&ulation is asso,iate9 -ith a high
in,i9en,e o0 malaria on Ce6lon. (0 ,ourse one might -on9er -hether &o&ulation is lo- in malarial areas 4e,ause &eo&le sim&l6 ,hose to mo)e a-a6 0rom malaria. ?ut the histor6 o0 Ce6lon suggests other-ise. !he an,ient ,i)iliLation o0 Ce6lon ha9
,entere9 in the area -ith h6&eren9emi, malaria. !he ruins o0 1*G*** 9ams testi06 to the le)el an9 magnitu9e o0 this ,i)iliLation in su,,essi)e stages o0 histor6. De,a6 o0 the an,ient or9er -as asso,iate9 -ith ,olla&se o0 the irrigation s6stemsG
emergen,e o0 ,on9itions that 0a)ore9 transmission o0 malariaG an9 retreat o0 the Singhalese to the nonmalarious area o0 the islan9. !A?/$ 1+A1. >o&ulationG AreaG an9 >o&ulation Densit6 o0 Distri,ts o0 Ce6lon VSri /an2aW 7rou&e9 46 the $n9emi,it6
o0 Malaria in the Distri,ts Vol9 ! 18A1W /i2e-iseG some historians ha)e suggeste9 that the 9e,line o0 the <oman $m&ire -as in large &art 9ue to the s&rea9 o0 malaria a0ter &oliti,al u&hea)al an9 9e,rease9 &o&ulation 9ensit6 inter0ere9 -ith the
maintenan,e o0 the 9rainage s6stem. /oo2ing no- to e%am&les o0 im&ro)ement rather than retrogressionG the histor6 o0 $nglan9 -as hea)il6 a00e,te9 46 the 9e,line o0 malaria in9u,e9 46 &o&ulation gro-th. In /on9onG H:estminster -as
&a)e9 in 176+ an9 the Cit6 in 1766...an9 the marshes near /on9on -ere 9raine9 a4out the same time.H In 1781 a -riter o4ser)e9 that H)er6 0e- 9ie no- o0 Ague NmalariaQ in /on9on.H !he histor6 o0 the U.S. also re)eals the inter&la6 4et-een malariaG
&o&ulationG an9 e,onomi, 9e)elo&ment" a might6 in0luen,e 4uo6ing u& -ages &ai9 to the men 4uil9ing ,anals 9uring the 18+*'s an9 181*'s -as the 9anger o0 6ello- 0e)er an9 malaria. ?uilt through marsh an9 s-am&s Vin man6 instan,esW to
re9u,e ,onstru,tion &ro4lemsG the ,anals -ere 2no-n as 2illers....As the ,ountr6 -as settle9G the marsh6 lan9 -here malaria -as 4re9 -as 0ille9 in. ?uil9ings ,o)ere9 the -aste s&a,es -here N9isease ,arriersQ ,oul9 sur)i)e. ?e,ause o0 DD! an9 other
s6ntheti, &esti,i9esG me9i,al te,hnologists thought 0or a time that &o&ulation 9ensit6 -as no longer ne,essar6 to &re)ent malaria. Malaria -as ,onsi9ere9 4eaten. ?ut throughout the -orl9G the 9isease has re4oun9e9. In9ia -ent 0rom 75 million su00erers
in 151 to 5*G*** ,ases an9 Htotal ,ontrolH in 168G 4ut in the 171 e&i9emi, there -ere 1.1 million re&orte9 ,asesG rising to 5.8 million ,ases re&orte9 in 176G or 46 another estimateG Hthe num4er o0 ,ases rea,he9 at least 1* million an9 &erha&s 5*
million.H As the use o0 DD! -ent 9o-nG H$n9emi, malaria returne9 to In9ia li2e the turnaroun9 o0 a ti9eH. AlsoG HSri /an2a...re9u,e9 malaria 0rom a4out three million ,ases a0ter :orl9 :ar II to =ust + in 164H. ?ut then DD! -as 4anne9. An9 9ue to
the e)olution o0 &esti,i9eAresistant strains o0 ,arrier inse,ts an9 the ,on,omitant 9amage to the inse,ts' natural &re9atorsG &esti,i9es soon lose their e00e,ti)eness. !he 9isease has returne9 in 0or,eI 46 17* Sri /an2a ma6 ha)e ha9 a million ,ases o0
malaria &er 6ear. ?arr6 Commoner gi)es another e%am&le" In 7uatemalaG some t-el)e 6ears a0ter the start o0 a malaria Hera9i,ation &rogramH 4ase9 on intensi)e use o0 inse,ti,i9esG the malarial mosquitoes ha)e 4e,ome resistant an9 the
in,i9en,e o0 the 9isease is higher than it -as 4e0ore the ,am&aign. !he le)els o0 DD! in the mil2 o0 7uatemala -omen are 46 0ar the highest re&orte9 an6-here in the -orl9 thus 0ar. (ther &u4li, health e%&erts also are grim a4out the &ros&e,ts o0
0ighting malaria -ith ,hemi,als. As2e9 -hether -e are -inning or losing the 4attle against tro&i,al 9iseasesG some e%&ertsG among them Dr. ?. 8. @ean o0 Cornell Uni)ersit6 Me9i,al CollegeG ans-er &rom&tl6 that -e are losing. 8e notes that malariaG
0or e%am&leG seeme9 almost ,onquere9 in the 9e,a9e or so a0ter :orl9 :ar II. ?ut sin,e then mosquitoes ha)e 4e,ome resistant to &esti,i9esG an9 the malaria &arasite has learne9 to ,o&e -ith some o0 the more -i9el6 use9 9rugs. !o9a6 again the onl6
sure -ea&on against malaria seems to 4e in,rease9 &o&ulation 9ensit6. Some (ther 8ealth $%am&les Not onl6 is the in0e,tiousA9isease 9ra-4a,2 o0 &o&ulation
9ensit6 a thing o0 the &astG 4ut higher 9ensit6 also has man6 &ositi)e e00e,ts on health e)en asi9e 0rom ,ontrol o0
inse,ts that ,arr6 malariaG slee&ing si,2ness Vthe tsetse 0l6 in A0ri,aWG an9 other 9iseases. Cor e%am&leG ,ities in the
mo9ern -orl9 ha)e sa0er -ater su&&lies than 9o rural areas. Me9i,al ,are is 4etter in ,itiesG an9 me9i,al hel&
arri)es qui,2er or is easier to rea,h -here there is a goo9 trans&ort s6stemG itsel0 the result o0 &o&ulation 9ensit6
Vsee ,ha&ter +5W. :e must also remem4er the a99itional 2no-le9geG ,reate9 46 more &eo&leG that ,ontri4utes to
health. Item" Mo9ern emergen,6 me9i,al s6stems in the U.S. are sa)ing li)es a0ter auto a,,i9ents an9 in other
emergen,ies. !he &o&ulationAin9u,e9 roa9 net-or2 o0 the U.S. is a 2e6 to the su,,ess o0 su,h s6stems. A ,ountr6
-ith a mu,h s&arser &o&ulation -oul9 0in9 su,h emergen,6 ser)i,e mu,h more e%&ensi)e. An9 lastG it ta2es
imagination an9 s2ill A human min9s an9 han9s A to in)ent an9 9e)elo& su,h me9i,al s6stems. Item" $le,tri,al
-iring is no- sa0er than it use9 to 4e. Man6 ol9 houses ha)e 4een re-ire9 more sa0el6 sin,e -iring i9eas -ere
9e)elo&e9 46 Ha99itionalH &eo&le A that isG 46 &eo&le -ho ma6 not ha)e 4een 4orn i0 &o&ulation gro-th -ere
lo-er. An9 ne- houses are 4uiltG -ith sa0er -iringG 4e,ause &o&ulation gro-th Vtogether -ith in,rease9 in,omeW
,reates ne- 9eman9 0or houses. VIn Irelan9G -here &o&ulation has not gro-n mu,h in the &ast ,entur6G one sel9om
sa- a ne- 4uil9ing at the time o0 the 0irst e9ition o0 this 4oo2. I shu99er at the ele,tri,al monstrosities that must lie
-ithin some o0 the larger ol9er 4uil9ings.W
Population Growth GoodInfrastructure
'opulation 1ooms need to occur to increase in0rastructure
2arter 0: =7op"lation growth 2ital for 2i$ranc(; 5exis; atherine arter is exec"ti2e director of the
7ropert( o"ncil in 8"stralia;
http://www.lexisnexis.com.prox(.li$."mich.ed"/"s/lnacademic/res"lts/doc2iew/doc2iew.doQ
doc5ink3ndYtr"eXris$Y*)P'R/*RL*/H-+XformatYOK%F3XsortYGB5BJ8KBXstartDocKoY)Xres
"ltsUrl6e(Y*/P'R/*RL*/H-:Xcis$Y**P'R/*RL*/H-.Xtree,axYtr"eXtree;idthY-XcsiY)R)H--X
docKoY*)C
In December the ACT Planning and Land Authority prepared a report on population and housing in the ACT,
based on census information. It indicated that our population needs to be boosted, especially if we are to cope with
infrastructure issues. The ACT's population has increased since 1996 by just under 20,000, to 334,225. It is rising in
most areas, but falling in Tuggeranong and Weston Creek. Projections indicate the population will rise to more than
340,000 by 2012 and over 380,000 by 2032."Population growth in the ACT is volatile and is particularly related to the
level of Federal Government activity," said the report. "This is refected in the level of net out- migration from the
territory in the mid-1990s."We are growing more slowly than the rest of the country, and have been since 1994, even
though growth rates were boosted in the last year surveyed . "For the year ending June 2006 the population growth
rate of the ACT was 0.9 per cent compared to 1.3per cent for Australia," said the report. "The ACT population
growth rate had been 0.2/0.3 per cent in the preceding three years. "In all districts except Gungahl in the 2006
population was below peak levels. And the authority was pessimistic about attaining those levels again. "It is
unlikely that the peak populations of the towns will be re-attained given the appreciably lower fertility and slower
rates of dwelling turnover," said the report. Redevelopment policies in North and South Canberra had contributed
to the reversal of the population decline in those areas but, said the report, "the populations in these areas are likely
to remain substantially below the peaks achieved". It concluded that there was a need to provide services and
facilities in the newly developing areas, while responding to changing populations in established areas. Because
much of our infrastructure was provided in the high- growth decades of the 1960s and 70s, "a considerable amount"
is due for replacement or an upgrade. To fund this, and to increase the range of goods and services that can be
supported, the report proposed a pro-growth population policy for Canberra.
Population Growth GoodScarcity
!E" '"'A" IN-E"AS" ING"N2ITF* E"?2-ING S-AE-ITF
3ulian SimonG >ro0essor o0 ?usiness A9ministration at the Uni)ersit6 o0 Mar6lan9 an9 a mem4er o0 the A,ton
Institute A9)isor6 ?oar9G !8$ U/!IMA!$ <$S(U<C$ II" >$(>/$G MA!$<IA/SG AND !8$
$NSI<(NM$N!G 18G htt&"##---.=uliansimon.,om#-ritings#UltimateZ<esour,e#!C8A<+8.t%t
Cha&ters 1A11 sho-e9 that all natural resour,es A mineralsG 0oo9G an9 energ6 A ha)e 4e,ome less rather than more
s,ar,e throughout human histor6. ?ut it is ,ounterAintuiti)eG against all ,ommon senseG 0or more &eo&le to result
in more rather than less natural resour,es. So here is the theor6 again" More &eo&leG an9 in,rease9 in,omeG ,ause
&ro4lems o0 in,rease9 s,ar,it6 o0 resour,es in the short run. 8eightene9 s,ar,it6 ,auses &ri,es to rise. !he higher
&ri,es &resent o&&ortunit6G an9 &rom&t in)entors an9 entre&reneurs to sear,h 0or solutions. Man6 0ailG at ,ost to
themsel)es. ?ut in a 0ree so,iet6G solutions are e)entuall6 0oun9. An9 in the long run the ne- 9e)elo&ments lea)e
us 4etter o00 than i0 the &ro4lems ha9 not arisen. !hat isG &ri,es en9 u& lo-er than 4e0ore the in,rease9 s,ar,it6
o,,urre9. !he sequen,e 46 -hi,h the sto,2 o0 ne- resour,es is in,rease9 -as illustrate9 in a histori,al a,,ountG
using the e%am&le o0 energ6 in $nglan9G in ,ha&ter **. !he reason 0or 4elie)ing that this &ro,ess -ill o,,ur e)en
-ith res&e,t to resour,es 0or -hi,h -e 9o not ha)e histori,al 9ata is 9is,usse9 in ,ha&ter 4" !he 7ran9 !heor6. It
ma6 also hel& 6ou un9erstan9 the &ro,ess 46 0ormaliLing it in the 0orm o0 a gra&hG sho-ing the ,hannels through
-hi,h &o&ulation in0luen,es the out,ome.
Population Growth GoodPollution/Environment
Hig( population is &e+ to cut 1ac& emissions
%ac&man #9C =7op"lation is ke( to c"tting emissions; 5exis; ,ichael %ackman is a write
and a"thor of 8sia F"t"re Shock;
http://www.lexisnexis.com.prox(.li$."mich.ed"/"s/lnacademic/ret"rn'o.doQ
ret"rn'o6e(Y*-P'R/H+*+-R*LC
Determining which countries have been responsible when it comes to population growth generates a diferent
picture when it comes to developing countries. China is a big and growing greenhouse gas emitter. But it has one of
the lowest population growth rates in the region due to the success of its one-child policy and also due to its rising
wealth levels - richer people tend to have fewer children. India, on the other hand, is not yet as big a gas emitter as
China. Gas emissions per head are about three times less - but its population is growing much faster than China's.
Its population will overtake China's in the 2030s, when both countries can be expected to have populations of about
1.5 billion. But South Asia, taken as a whole, is already the clear winner in the population stakes. Had partition not
taken place in 1947, then India would have overtaken China for the No. 1 spot years ago. The combined population
of pre-partition India today (India, Pakistan and Bangladesh) is 1.4 billion, compared with China's population of 1.3
billion. In any event, China today represents 39% of Asia's population and South Asia 40%. But China's relative
importance will decline further, not just compared with India and the rest of South Asia, but compared with all of
Asia .Indeed, the population of pre-partition India is expected to rise by another 900 million people in the frst half
of this century. Changing to energy-saving light bulbs will be a drop in the ocean compared with this. Not only will
India's population overtake China's in the 2030s but China's will then start to fall. Taiwan, Japan, South Korea and
Singapore will also experience declining populations in coming decades. Japan's population probably peaked this
year and will begin falling from next year. South Korea's population will start to fall in 2027, and Taiwan's in 2029.
Singapore's is more difcult to predict because its government is likely to permit even higher levels of immigration
to try to avert a decline. But as things stand, Singapore's residents might be increasing in number but the number of
Singaporeans will start to fall. The populations of China, Singapore, South Korea, Japan and Taiwan are under
control. Hence, controls on damaging gas emissions will be more readily achieved. But the populations of South
Asia, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Malaysia are not, and so moderating their gas emissions will be more difcult.
Underpopulation BadUS
the *S will plunge toward third world status by $070 unless it reverses its population aging and underpopulation
trends4
Bla,er 08 NODe,lining ?irthratesP CB <esear,her. Sol. 18G Issue 41. No)em4er +1G +**8. Sarah 7laLer is a =ournalist
s&e,ialiLing in healthG s,ien,eG en)ironmentG an9 relate9 areas.
htt&"##li4rar6.,q&ress.,om.&ro%6.li4.umi,h.e9u#,qresear,her#9o,ument.&h&Ui9E,qresrre+**811+1**Q
Imagine a ,ountr6 -hose &o&ulation is ol9er than Clori9a's is to9a6 a ,ountr6 -ith t-i,e as man6 retirees 4ut onl6 18
&er,ent more -or2ers to su&&ort them. /arge num4ers o0 im&o)erishe9 el9erl6 resi9ents languish in su4stan9ar9 nursing
homesG man6 -ithout sons or 9aughters to )isit them. :ith 0e-er 4u6ersG houses stan9 em&t6. Curniture ma2ersG ,onstru,tion
0irms an9 auto 9ealers 0in9 themsel)es -ith shrin2ing sales an9 &ro0its.
!hat's the 2in9 o0 s,enario 0or the Unite9 States o0 +*1* &ainte9 46 e,onomists -orrie9 a4out a 0uture -here millions o0
Ameri,an 4a46 4oomers -ill 4e retiring -hile the num4er o0 ta%A&a6ing -or2ers &er retiree is shrin2ing. !he nation -ill 4e
H&lunging hea9long to-ar9 !hir9 :orl9 statusH unless there are ma=or ,hanges in &ension &oli,6 an9 health ,areG ?oston
Uni)ersit6 e,onomist /a-ren,e 3. @otli2o00 has -arne9. In his 4oo2 FewerG Ameri,an $nter&rise Institute Senior Cello- ?en 3.
:atten4erg &aints an e)en more 9ire &i,ture 0or ,ountries -ith 0ar lo-er 4irthrates than the Unite9 StatesG -hi,h still &ro9u,es
enough ,hil9ren to re&la,e its &o&ulation. HI 0in9 it unli2el6 that nations 0a,ing 0e-er 4irthsG 0e-er ,ustomers an9 an aging
&ro4lem -ill sho- su4stantial Ne,onomi,Q gro-th ratesGH he -rites. Cor 6earsG 9emogra&hers ha)e haile9 9e,lining 4irthrates as
an e,onomi, 4oon 0or &oor ,ountries li2e In9iaG 4e,ause it means 0e-er mouths to 0ee9. ?ut re,entl6G 9emogra&hers ha)e
starte9 0o,using their ,on,ern on the ri,h ,ountries o0 the -orl9G -here ,ou&les are ha)ing too 0e- ,hil9ren to re&la,e
themsel)es. Si%t6At-o ,ountriesG re&resenting 4+ &er,ent o0 the -orl9's &o&ulationG ha)e 4irthrates 4elo- &o&ulation
re&la,ement le)els. :or2ers' ,olle,ti)e ta% ,ontri4utions to H&a6 as 6ou goH so,ial se,urit6 s6stems li2e that in the Unite9
States an9 $uro&e -ill 4e 9-in9ling =ust as the ,osts o0 healthG &ensions an9 so,ial se,urit6 -ill 4e rising 0or a s-elling
&o&ulation o0 retireesG -ho are li)ing e)er longer. !he result" un4eara4le 0is,al strains on the go)ernmentG the e,onom6 an9
-or2ers. $uro&eG -hi,h no- has 0our -or2ers 0or e)er6 retireeG is e%&e,te9 to see a 9e,line to t-o -or2ers &er retiree 46 +*5*G
a,,or9ing to 7rant o0 <AND $uro&e. !he im&a,t ,oul9 4e enormous" A&&ro%imatel6 4*A6* &er,ent o0 &u4li, s&en9ing is
sensiti)e to the age stru,tureG largel6 through s&en9ing on health an9 &ensions. Com&are9 to the K1 out o0 e)er6 K7 in &a6roll
no- 9istri4ute9 in the Unite9 States to So,ial Se,urit6 an9 Me9i,areG -or2ers ,oul9 see K4 out o0 e)er6 K1* going to su&&ort
those 4ene0itsG >hilli& /ongmanG a senior 0ello- at the Ne- Ameri,a Coun9ationG a &rogressi)e thin2 tan2 in :ashingtonG D.C.G
-arns in his 4oo2 The Empty Cradle.
Underpopulation BadEcon
2nderpopulation &ills economic growt( simple laws o0 economics.
Aongman #. [?'he Olo$al %a$( %"stA 7hillip 5ongman is a Schwart# Senior Fellow;
Gesearch Director, Kext Social ontract 3nitiati2e, Kew 8merica Fo"ndation. Formerl( a
senior writer and dep"t( assistant managing editor at U.S. Kews X ;orld Geport, he has
won n"mero"s awards for his $"siness and 0nancial writing, incl"ding U58!s Oerald
5oe$ 8ward, and the top pri#e for in2estigati2e Fo"rnalism from 3n2estigati2e Geporters
and Bditors. http://www.catholiced"cation.org/articles/pop"lation/pc--++.htm]
Eepa+ing t(e demograp(ic di,idend :hat im&a,t -ill these tren9s ha)e on the glo4al e,onom6 an9 4alan,e o0
&o-er Q onsider 0rst the positi2e possi$ilities. Slo-er -orl9 &o&ulation gro-th o00ers man6 4ene0itsG some of
which ha2e alread( $een reali#ed. ,an( economists $elie2e, for example, that falling $irthrates
made possi$le the great economic $oom that occ"rred in >apan and then in man( other 8sian
nations $eginning in the )/R-s. 8s the relati2e n"m$er of children declined, so did the $"rden of
their dependenc(, there$( freeing "p more reso"rces for in2estment and ad"lt cons"mption. 3n Bast
8sia, the working&age pop"lation grew nearl( fo"r times faster than its dependent pop"lation
$etween )/RL and )//-, freeing "p a h"ge reser2e of female la$or and other social reso"rces that
wo"ld otherwise ha2e $een committed to raising children. Similarl(, hina!s rapid ind"striali#ation
toda( is $eing aided $( a dramatic decline in the relati2e n"m$er of dependent children. @2er the
next decade, the ,iddle Bast co"ld $ene0t from a similar 1demographic di2idend.1 %irthrates fell in
e2er( single ,iddle Bastern co"ntr( d"ring the )//-s, often dramaticall(. 'he res"lting 1middle
aging1 of the region will lower the o2erall dependenc( ratio o2er the next )- to *- (ears, freeing "p
more reso"rces for infrastr"ct"re and ind"strial de2elopment. >"st as pop"lation aging in the ;est
d"ring the )/:-s was accompanied $( the disappearance of (o"thf"l indigeno"s terrorist gro"ps
s"ch as the Ged %rigades and the ;eather Undergro"nd, falling $irthrates in the ,iddle Bast co"ld
well prod"ce societies far less prone to political 2iolence. Declining fertilit( rates at 0rst $ring a
1demographic di2idend.1 !hat 9i)i9en9 has to 4e re&ai9G howe2er, if the trend contin"es. Although at 0irst the
0a,t that there are 0e-er ,hil9ren to 0ee9G ,lotheG an9 e9u,ate lea)es more 0or a9ults to en=o6G soon eno"gh, i0 0ertilit6 0alls
4eneath re&la,ement le)elsG the num4er o0 &ro9u,ti)e -or2ers 9ro&s as -ellG an9 the num4er o0 9e&en9ent el9erl6 in,rease.
An9 these ol9er ,itiLens ,onsume 0ar more resour,es than ,hil9ren 9o. $)en a0ter ,onsi9ering the ,ost o0 e9u,ationG a t6&i,al
,hil9 in the Unite9 States ,onsumes +8 &er,ent less than the t6&i,al -or2ingAage a9ultG -hereas el9ers ,onsume +7 &er,ent
moreG mostl6 in healthArelate9 e%&enses. 5argel( $eca"se of this im$alance, &o&ulation aging, once it $egins
creating more seniors than workers, &uts se)ere strains on go)ernment 4u9gets. In 7erman6G for example, p u4li,
s&en9ing on &ensions, e2en after acco"nting for a red"ction in f"t"re $ene0ts written into c"rrent law, is
e%&e,te9 to s-ell 0rom an alread( staggering 1*.1 &er,ent o0 7D> to 15.4 &er,ent 46 +*4* e)en as the num4er o0
-or2ers a)aila4le to su&&ort ea,h retiree shrin2s from *.R to 1.4. ,eanwhile, the ,ost o0 go)ernment healthA,are 4ene0its
0or the el9erl6 is e%&e,te9 to rise 0rom toda(!s 1.8 &er,ent o0 7D> to 8.4 &er,ent 46 +*4*. >o&ulation aging also 9e&resses
the gro-th o0 go)ernment re)enues. >o&ulation gro-th is a ma=or sour,e o0 e,onomi, gro-th" more &eo&le ,reate more
9eman9 0or the &ro9u,ts ,a&italists sellG an9 more su&&l6 o0 the la4or ,a&italists 4u6. $,onomists ma6 4e a4le to ,onstru,t
mo9els o0 ho- e,onomies ,oul9 gro- ami9 a shrin2ing &o&ulationG 4ut in the real -orl9G it has ne)er ha&&ene9. A nation's
7D> is literall6 the sum o0 its la4or 0or,e times a)erage out&ut &er -or2er. !hus a 9e,line in the num4er o0 -or2ers im&lies a
9e,line in an e,onom6's gro-th &otential. :hen the siLe o0 the -or2 0or,e 0allsG e,onomi, gro-th ,an o,,ur onl6 i0
&ro9u,ti)it6 in,reases enough to ,om&ensate. 8nd these increases wo"ld ha2e to $e s"$stantial to oDset the
impact of aging. 3tal(, for example, expects its working&age pop"lation to pl"nge +) percent $( *-L-
S meaning that o"tp"t per worker wo"ld ha2e to increase $( at least that amo"nt F"st to keep
3tal(!s economic growth rate from falling $elow #ero. :ith a shrin2ing la4or su&&l6G $uro&e's 0uture e,onomi,
gro-th -ill there0ore 9e&en9 entirel6 on getting more out o0 ea,h remaining -or2er Vman6 o0 them uns2ille9G re,entl6 arri)e9
immigrantsWG e)en as it has to ta% them at higher an9 higher rates to &a6 0or ol9Aage &ensions an9 health ,are.
2nderpopulation (urts t(e econom+
T(e GaMette #2 HK'he $a$( $"st: pop"lation decline is the most fr"strating social iss"e in _"e$ec
toda(A >an"ar( *H, *--*. http://www.lexisnexis.com.prox(.li$."mich.ed"/"s/lnacademic/ret"rn'o.doQ
ret"rn'o6e(Y*-P'R/H*LR+H*L]
3t!s $een o$ser2ed man( times that witho"t more children & f"t"re workers, cons"mers and
taxpa(ers & the econom( will s"Der, tax $ills will rise =$eca"se of the shrinking tax $aseC and societ(
will $e hard p"t to pa( for $a$( $oomers! care in old age. ;e can alread( see the eDect of the $a$(
$"st on _"e$ec!s relati2e weight within anada: according to Statistics anada!s data, the pro2ince
acco"nted in *--) for onl( ** per cent of one&(ear&old children in anada, signi0cantl( $elow
_"e$ec!s *+ per cent share of the anada!s pop"lation.
Underpopulation BadEcon
2nderpopulation is a 1igger pro1lem t(an o,erpopulation and could lead to a
long3term economic depression
Ina+atulla( :: [?8ge&_"ake: Sa( 4ello to Underpop"lationA Genaissance Uni2ersal, feat"ring Kew
Genaissance ,aga#ine. Sohail 3na(at"llah is a political scientist/f"t"rist, co&editor of the >o"rnal of
F"t"res St"dies and Kew Genaissance and a"thor/co&editor of ten or so $ooks. 4e is c"rrentl(
editing a $ook titled 8out# /utures. http://www.r".org/f"t"re&st"dies/age&9"ake&sa(&hello&to&"nder&
pop"lation.html]
;elcome to the new world of aging; a world in which li$erals "sed to "nending economic growth
and greens foc"sed on #ero pop"lation growth will 0nd themsel2es "ncomforta$le. Instea9 o0
o)er&o&ulation it -ill 4e un9er&o&ulation that -ill 4e the -orl9;s 4iggest &ro4lemG 0rst in the ;est, and then most
likel( the rest of the world. (nl6 nations -ith high immigration that ,an ma2e the s-it,h 0rom a 6outh e,onom6 to an
ol9 &erson;s e,onom6 -ill sur)i)e. !his -ill mean among the 4iggest ,hanges in human histor6&ensionsG gro-th e,onomiesG
A5 -or2G male 9ominationall must en9 if we are to s"ccessf"ll( na2igate the age9"ake ahead. ;rites 7a"l
;allace, a"thor of A'e9ua3e, historicall( 1we ha2e $een remarka$l( (o"ng. @"r a2erage age has
$een aro"nd *- or less. %"t in the c"rrent generationIs lifetime, the a2erage age of the world will
nearl( do"$le from ** in )/.L to H: in *-L-, according to the UK proFections... Under another
proFection, it co"ld reach o2er +- as earl( as *-+-.1
Not only is the population pyramid about to fip but populations in Europe may plunge on a scale not seen since
the Black Death in 1348. But this is not just a Western trend; indeed, because of the speed of the demographic
slowdown in the developing world, it means that "they will age much more quickly than the West," says Wallace. In
twenty years time, China will be one of the most rapidly aging societies. The worker-retiree ratio While many of
these changes will be positivelonger life (by mid-century there will be over two million centenarians compared
with 150,000 today), healthier life styles, less childhood deaths, and falling numbers of young people (which means
falling crime rates)others are not so positive. Who will pay for the retirement benefts of the elderly ? Over the
next thirty years the ratio of workers to pensioners in industrialised nations will fall from the current 3 to 1 to 1.5 to
1. How will societies stay rejuvenated with new ideas ? Would we have had a personal computer revolution if
youngsters like Steve Jobs were not there to challenge authority and create new products? And what will happen
when those purchasing stocks in the 1980s and 1990s begin to sell them 20 years later to pay for their retirement?
There will be no age-cohort to purchase them as the baby boomers currently have. Will we enter a long term bear
market and thus possibly a long term economic depression?
Underpopulation BadHeg
2nderpopulation ine,ita1l+ &ills (eg
Aongman #. [?'he Olo$al %a$( %"stA ,a(/>"ne *--+. Geprinted with permission from Foreign
8Dairs. 7hillip 5ongman is a Schwart# Senior Fellow; Gesearch Director, Kext Social ontract
3nitiati2e, Kew 8merica Fo"ndation. Formerl( a senior writer and dep"t( assistant managing editor
at :&S& Ne.s ; +orld ,eport, he has won n"mero"s awards for his $"siness and 0nancial writing,
incl"ding U58!s Oerald 5oe$ 8ward, and the top pri#e for in2estigati2e Fo"rnalism from
3n2estigati2e Geporters and Bditors.
http://www.catholiced"cation.org/articles/pop"lation/pc--++.htm]
Global aging and global power Current population trends are likely to have another major impact: they will make
military actions increasingly difcult for most nations. One reason for this change will be psychological. In
countries where parents generally have only one or two children, every soldier becomes a "Private Ryan" a
soldier whose loss would mean overwhelming devastation to his or her family. In the later years of the Soviet
Union, for example, collapsing birthrates in the Russian core meant that by 1990, the number of Russians aged 15-24
had shrunk by 5.2 million from 25 years before. Given their few sons, it is hardly surprising that Russian mothers
for the frst time in the nation's history organized an antiwar movement, and that Soviet society decided that its
casualties in Afghanistan were unacceptable. Another reason for the shift will be fnancial. Today, Americans
consider the United States as the world's sole remaining superpower, which it is. As the cost of pensions and health
care consume more and more of the nation's wealth, however, and as the labor force stops growing, it will become
more and more difcult for Washington to sustain current levels of military spending or the number of men and
women in uniform . Even within the U.S. military budget, the competition between guns and canes is already
intense. The Pentagon today spends 84 cents on pensions for every dollar it spends on basic pay. Indeed, except
during wartime, pensions are already one of the Pentagon's largest budget categories. In 2000, the cost of military
pensions amounted to 12 times what the military spent on ammunition , nearly 5 times what the Navy spent on new
ships, and more than 5 times what the Air Force spent on new planes and missiles. Of course, the U.S. military is
also more technically sophisticated than ever before, meaning that national power today is much less dependent on
the ability to raise large armies. But the technologies the United States currently uses to project its power laser-
guided bombs, stealth aircraft, navigation assisted by the space-based Global Positioning System, nuclear aircraft
carriers are all products of the sort of expensive research and development that the United States will have
difculty afording if the cost of old-age entitlements continues to rise.
Underpopulation BadCompetitiveness
2nderpopulation &ills competiti,eness 1+ disincenti,iMing tec(nological
inno,ation and reducing (uman capital to drawn on
Aongman #. [?'he Olo$al %a$( %"stA ,a(/>"ne *--+. Geprinted with permission from Foreign 8Dairs. 7hillip 5ongman
is a Schwart# Senior Fellow; Gesearch Director, Kext Social ontract 3nitiati2e, Kew 8merica Fo"ndation. Formerl( a senior
writer and dep"t( assistant managing editor at U.S. Kews X ;orld Geport, he has won n"mero"s awards for his $"siness
and 0nancial writing, incl"ding U58!s Oerald 5oe$ 8ward, and the top pri#e for in2estigati2e Fo"rnalism from 3n2estigati2e
Geporters and Bditors. http://www.catholiced"cation.org/articles/pop"lation/pc--++.htm]
B2en if there are fewer workers a2aila$le to s"pport each retiree in the f"t"re, won!t technolog( $e
a$le to make "p the diDerenceQ 7erhaps. %"t there is also plent( of e2idence to s"ggest that
&o&ulation aging itself -or2s to 9e&ress the rate of te,hnologi,al an9 organiLational inno)ation. ross&co"ntr(
comparisons impl(, for example, that a0ter the &ro&ortion o0 el9ers in,reases in a so,iet6 4e6on9 a ,ertain &ointG the
le)el o0 entre&reneurshi& an9 in)enti)eness 4egins to 9ro&. In +**+G ?a4son College an9 the /on9on S,hool o0 ?usiness
released their latest index of entreprene"rial acti2it(. 3t sho-s that there is a 9istin,t ,orrelation 4et-een
,ountries -ith a high ratio o0 -or2ers to retirees an9 those -ith a high 9egree o0 entre&reneurshi&. Con)ersel6G in ,ountries in
-hi,h a large share o0 the &o&ulation is retire9G the amount o0 ne- 4usiness 0ormation is lo-. So, for example, two of the most
entreprene"rial co"ntries toda( are 3ndia and hina, where there are c"rrentl( ro"ghl( 02e people of working age for e2er(
person of retirement age. ,eanwhile, >apan and France are among the least entreprene"rial co"ntries on earth and ha2e
among the lowest ratios of workers to retirees. 'his correlation co"ld $e explained $( man( diDerent factors. %oth common
sense and a 2ast literat"re in 0nance and ps(cholog( s"pport the claim that as one approaches retirement age, one "s"all(
$ecomes more rel"ctant to take career or 0nancial risks. 3t is not s"rprising, therefore, that aging co"ntries s"ch as 3tal(,
France, and >apan are marked $( exceptionall( low rates of Fo$ t"rno2er and $( exceptionall( conser2ati2e "se of capital.
%eca"se pr"dence re9"ires that older in2estors take fewer risks with their in2estments, it also stands to reason that as
pop"lations age, in2estor preference shifts toward safe $onds and $ank deposits and awa( from spec"lati2e stocks and
2ent"re f"nds. 8s pop"lations age f"rther, e2er&higher shares of citi#ens $egin cashing o"t their in2estments and spending
down their sa2ings. Also to 4e ,onsi9ere9 are the huge &u4li, 9e0i,its &ro=e,te9 to 4e run $( maFor ind"striali#ed
co"ntries o)er the ne%t se)eral 9e,a9es. ?e,ause o0 the mounting ,osts o0 &ensions an9 health ,areG go)ernment s&en9ing on
research a n9 de2elopment, as -ell as on e9u,ationG -ill li2el6 9ro&. ,oreo2er, massi)e go)ernment 4orro-ing ,oul9
easil6 ,ro-9 out 0inan,ial ,a&ital that -oul9 other-ise 4e a)aila4le to the pri2ate sector 0or in)estment in ne-
te,hnolog6 . 'he enter for Strategic and 3nternational St"dies has recentl( calc"lated that the ,ost o0
&u4li, 4ene0its to the el9erl6 -ill ,onsume a 9ramati,all6 rising share o0 7D> in ind"striali#ed co"ntries. In the Unite9
StatesG su,h 4ene0its ,urrentl6 ,onsume .4 &er,ent o0 7D>. %"t if c"rrent trends contin"e, this 0igure -ill to& +*
&er,ent 46 +*4*. 8nd in ,ountries su,h as Cran,eG 7erman6G Ital6G 3a&anG an9 S&ainG some-here 4et-een a quarter an9 a thir9
o0 all national out&ut -ill 4e ,onsume9 46 ol9Aage &ensions an9 health ,are &rograms 4e0ore to9a6's 1*A6earAol9s rea,h
retirement age. !heoreti,all6G a highl6 e00i,ientG glo4al 0inan,ial mar2et ,oul9 len9 0inan,ial resour,es 0rom ri,hG ol9 ,ountries
that are short on la4or to 6oungG &oor ,ountries that are short on ,a&italG and make the whole world $etter oD.
?ut 0or this to ha&&enG ol9 ,ountries -oul9 ha)e to ,ontain their 9e0i,its an9 in)est their sa)ings in &la,es that are themsel)es
either on the threshol9 o0 h6&erAaging =hina, 3ndia, ,exicoC or highl6 9esta4iliLe9 46 religious 0anati,ismG 9iseaseG an9
-ar =most of the ,iddle Bast, s"$&Saharan 8frica, 3ndonesiaC, or $oth. An9 -ho e%a,tl6 -oul9 4u6 the
&ro9u,ts &ro9u,e9 46 these in)estmentsU >apan, So"th 6orea, and other recentl( ind"striali#ed co"ntries
relied on massi2e exports to the United States and B"rope to de2elop. %"t if the pop"lation of
B"rope and >apan drops, while the pop"lation of the United States ages considera$l(, where will the
demand come from to s"pport de2elopment in places s"ch as the ,iddle Bast and s"$&Saharan
8fricaQ >o&ulation aging is also li2el6 to ,reate huge lega,6 ,osts 0or em&lo6ers. !his is &arti,ularl6 true in the Unite9
StatesG -here health an9 &ension 4ene0its are largel6 &ro)i9e9 46 the &ri)ate se,tor. 7eneral Motors V7MW no- has +.5 retirees
on its &ension rolls 0or e)er6 a,ti)e -or2er an9 an un0un9e9 &ension 9e4t o0 K1.+ 4illion. 8onoring its lega,6 ,osts to retirees
no- a99s K1G8** to the ,ost o0 e)er6 )ehi,le 7M ma2esG according to a *--H estimate $( ,organ Stanle(. >"st
$etween *--) and *--*, the U.S. go2ernment!s proFected short&term lia$ilit( for $ailing o"t failing
pri2ate pension plans increased from [)) $illion to [HL $illion, with h"ge defa"lts expected from
the steel and airline ind"stries. An aging -or2 0or,e ma6 also 4e less a4le or in,line9 to ta2e a9)antage o0 ne-
te,hnolog6. 'his trend seems to $e part of the ca"se for >apan!s declining rates of prod"cti2it( growth
in the )//-s. Before that decade, the aging of Japan's highly educated work force was a weak but positive force
in increasing the nation's productivity, according to studies. Older workers learned by doing, developing
specialized knowledge and craft skills and the famous company spirit that made Japan an unrivaled manufacturing
power. But by the 1990s, the continued aging of Japan's work force became a cause of the country's declining
competitiveness. Population aging works against innovation in another way as well. As population growth
dwindles, so does the need to increase the supply of just about everything, save health care. That means there is less
incentive to fnd ways of making a gallon of gas go farther, or of increasing the capacity of existing infrastructure.
Population growth is the mother of necessity. Without it, why bother to innovate? An aging society may have an
urgent need to gain more output from each remaining worker, but without growing markets, individual frms have
little incentive to learn how to do more with less and with a dwindling supply of human capital, they have fewer
ideas to draw on.
Underpopulation BadInvestor Confdence
2nderpopulation (urts in,estor confdence and t(e econom+
%remmer #/ [?hinaIs "nderpop"lation pro$lemA Slate ,aga#ine, ,arch ., *--R. 3an %remmer is a political scientist
speciali#ing in US foreign polic(, states in transition, and glo$al political risk. 4e is president of B"rasia Oro"p. %remmerIs
$ooks incl"de $estselling 'he > "r2e: 8 Kew ;a( to Understand ;h( Kations Gise and Fall. 3n *--), %remmer a"thored
;all StreetIs 0rst glo$al political risk index. %remmer ser2es on the %oard of 'r"stees of the arnegie o"ncil for Bthics in
3nternational 8Dairs and the 8d2isor( %oard of the ;estport 7"$lic 5i$rar(. 3n *--., he was named as a !Mo"ng Olo$al
5eader! of the ;orld Bconomic For"m. %remmer recei2ed his 7h.D. in political science from Stanford. 8t *L, he $ecame the
3nstit"tionIs (o"ngest Kational Fellow at the 4oo2er 3nstit"tion where. 4e has held research and fac"lt( positions at
ol"m$ia, the Bast;est 3nstit"te, 5awrence 5i2ermore Kational 5a$orator(, and the ;orld 7olic( 3nstit"te, where he has
ser2ed as Senior Fellow. http://fra(.slate.com/id/*)H.R:-/]
China's )ast su&&l6 o0 ,hea& la4or an9 In9ia's arm6 o0 ,a&a4le engineers ha)e attra,te9 enormous 0lo-s o0 0oreign in)estment
to their co"ntries o2er the past se2eral (ears. 8nal(sts ha2e d"$$ed the res"lt the 18sian miracle.1
%"t 4eneath our assum&tions a4out the 0uture o0 e,onomi, gro-th in these t-o ,ountries lie im&ortant questions a4out ho-
long these tren9s ,an remain 9"ite so mirac"lo"s. %etween )/.: and the end of *--+, hina took in
[LRH.: $illion in foreign direct in2estment, more than )- times the total that >apan amassed
$etween )/+L and *---. 3ndia, meanwhile, now acco"nts for almost two&thirds of all the
information&technolog( work oD&shored from the United States, and the res"lting re2en"e is
expected to nearl( 9"adr"ple o2er the next 02e (ears to aro"nd [R- $illion.
Gecent reports from researchers at De"tsche %ank and Ooldman Sachs s"ggest that China's -or20or,e
ma6 4egin to shrin2 sooner than -e thought. 8ccording to De"tsche %ank!s anal(sis, the &er,entage o0 -or2ingAage
Chinese in the pop"lation =those aged )L to R+C -ill &ea2 aroun9 +*1* at 7+.+ &er,ent. @2er the next +-
(ears, that num4er -ill 0all stea9il6 to =ust 6*.7 &er,ent, according to U.K. forecasts. 'he steep drop is d"e in
large part to hina!s one&child polic(, 0rst implemented in )/./. 8lso, man( hinese retire $efore
the( are R+; hina!s c"rrent retirement age is L- for most women and R- for most men. !here are t-o
reasons this shi0t -ill &ut ,onsi9era4le strain on China's e,onomi, &er0orman,e. First, the ,ountr6's e%&losi)e e,onomi,
gro-th o2er the last se2eral (ears is 9ue mostl6 to its &lenti0ul su&&l6 o0 ,hea& la4or. :hen the -or2ingAage &o&ulation
4egins to 9ro& 0i)e 6ears 0rom no-G China's a&&eal to international in)estors ma6 4egin to 0all as -ell. Second, 46 +*5*G
e)er6 1* Chinese -or2ers -ill su&&ort se)en Chinese -ho are too 6oung or too ol9 to -or2, according to Ooldman
Sachs. $)en that &ro=e,tion is $ased on the o&timisti, ass"mption that the central go2ernment will soon
pers"ade its citi#ens to work "ntil the( are R+. 'he De"tsche %ank st"d( incl"des a warning from
the 3nternational ,onetar( F"nd that the transition from the c"rrent pension s(stem to a more
s"staina$le one co"ld cost de2eloping hina [)-- $illion, not incl"ding the 0nancial $"rden on local
go2ernments. 'he pop"lation is aging in >apan and in man( B"ropean co"ntries, as well, $"t these
states are alread( wealth(. !he 0inan,ial stresses on ChinaG -here the a)erage &erA,a&ita in,ome remains a 0ra,tion o0
those o0 9e)elo&e9 statesG -ill 4e mu,h more 9i00i,ult to 4ear. !hen there are the healthA,are ,osts. Ko one can forecast
with con0dence what it will cost hina to care for the *RL million citi#ens who will $e o2er the age
of RL $( *-*-. 'he worst of the cr"nch is man( (ears awa(. %"t the new reports s"ggest that the
shrinking of hina!s la$or force will $egin $( the end of this decade.
Underpopulation BadAdventurism/War
2nderpopulation leads to in,asion in a Ouest 0or more people Eussia pro,es
Ai0e News #$ [?G"ssiaIs 8ctions in Oeorgia ,a( Ges"lt from Underpop"lation D"e to 8$ortionA
Ste2en Brtelt, 5ifeKews editor. 8"g"st ):, *--:. http://www.lifenews.com/int::H.html]
<ussia recent actions in2ol2ing a militar6 in)asion o0 neigh4oring 7eorgia ha2e mostl( $een co2ered from
diplomatic and political perspecti2es. %"t one leading pop"lation expert sa(s G"ssia!s a,tions ma6 4e
e%&laine9 in &art 4e,ause o0 the un9er&o&ulation ,risis there d"e to extensi2e n"m$ers of a$ortions. G"ssia,
like man( of its neigh$ors in Bastern B"rope, is experiencing se2ere "nderpop"lation thanks to
a$ortion $eing "sed as a method of $irth control for decades. !he nation 9oesn't ha)e enough -or2ers to 2ee&
its e,onom6 strong and %arr( ,c5erran, prod"cer of 1Demographic ;inter,1 a doc"mentar( on
"nderpop"lation pro$lems, sa(s that ,oul9 ha)e moti)ate9 the nation to e%&an9 46 ta2ing o)er 7eorgia. H<ussia has
one o0 the lo-est 4irth rates in the -orl9 at 1.17 ,hil9ren &er -oman,1 he told 5ifeKews.com. 1A nation nee9s a 4irth
rate o0 +.1 =ust to re&la,e ,urrent &o&ulation.H 1%eca"se of its low $irth rate and earl( deaths && d"e to disease
and other factors && G"ssia is losing approximatel( .L-,--- people a (ear,1 he explained. ,ost
demographers generall( $elie2e that G"ssia!s c"rrent pop"lation of )++ million will fall to ))L
million 46 +*5*. %"t ,"rra( Fesh$ach, with the ;oodrow ;ilson 3nternational enter for Scholars,
thinks <ussia's &o&ulation will drop to )-) million and ,oul9 go as lo- as 77 million $( mid&point in this
cent"r(. <ussia is tr6ing 9es&eratel6 to 4olster its sagging 4irth rate . For e2er( child that a famil( has after the
0rst, the G"ssian go2ernment pa(s parents the e9"i2alent of [/,*--. 'here!s e2en a 1Kational Da(
of onception.1 None o0 it seems to 4e -or2ing. HSoG -here 9oes a nation -ith a &lummeting 4irthrate 0in9 &eo&leU 8o-
-ill <ussia hol9 the largest lan9 mass o0 an6 ,ountr6 in the -orl9 -ith a &o&ulation o0 115 millio n & or .. millionQ :here
-ill it get the la4or to 0uel its e,onom6 an9 man its 9e0ensesUH ,c5erran asks. (ne ans-er is territorial e%&ansion that -ill
in,or&orate other &o&ulations into the nation. 7"tin has made it clear that he considers the $reak"p of the
So2iet Union a traged(. 7rior to )//), the Ukraine and Oeorgia were part of G"ssia, ,c5erran
explains. 4e adds that some o$ser2ers $elie2e >utin's en9game is not =ust to seiLe 7eorgia =with a
pop"lation of +.R millionC, 4utG more im&ortantl6G the U2raine , with +R million people && th"s in,reasing <ussia's
,urrent &o&ulation 46 4*J in one fell swoop. 1Do"$tless, Mos,o- -oul9 also 4ene0it 0rom the thri)ing e,onomies of
Oeorgia and the Ukraine as well. Oeorgia!s econom( increased $( )*N in *--., while the Ukraine!s
grew $( .N,1 he said. 1%"t -hat oilAri,h <ussia nee9s no-G more than an6thing elseG is more &eo&le. !his ma6 4e a
signi0i,ant 0a,tor 9ri)ing its a9)enturism in the Cau,usesGH he added.
2AC Immigration Turn
2nderpopulation will ine,ita1l+ lead to an inSu) o0 immigrants* leading to social
and economic tensions "urope pro,es
."il 00 N3!he >e%t *) Fears: @nfolding !rends6 5ecember ())*. Qaclav -mil is a distinguished
professor at the @niversity of =anitoba $innipeg, =anitoba.
http:SSwww.Dstor.org.pro%y.lib.umich.eduSstableSpdfplusSML)E*EH.pdfP
In any case, overgenerous welfare programs will soon start colliding with shrinking and aging populations, leading
to a reduced taxation base, higher pension payments, and rising pensioner/worker ratios. All afuent countries will
experience these shifts, but Europe's already high pensioner/worker ratios (Britain being the only exception among
the continent's largest economies) mean that old-age dependency ratios will typically double by 2050 (Bongaarts
2004). These realities are at the core of Europe's population dilemma, perhaps the single most important factor that
will shape its economic and political futures. As Demeny has noted, the process of moving toward a smaller and
older population could be contemplated with equanimity only if Europe were an island-but instead "it has
neighbors that follow their own peculiar demographic logic" (Demeny 2003: 4). This neighborhood-Demeny calls it
the European Union's southern hinterland-includes 29 states (when counting Palestine and Western Sahara)
between India's western border and the Atlantic Ocean, all exclusively or predominantly Muslim (see Figure 2). By
2050 the European Union's current 25 nations are projected to have 449 million people (after losing some 10 million
from the present level, notwithstanding an assumed net immigration of more than 35 million per- sons between
2005 and 2050), half of them older than 50 years, while the population of its southern hinterland is projected to
reach about 1.25 billion. Immigration from this hinterland is already the greatest infux of people the continent has
seen in more than a thousand years. During the previous incursion, intruders ranging from Ostrogoths to Vikings
and from Bulgars to Magyars destroyed the antique order and reshaped Europe's population. So far, the modern
migration has been notable not for its absolute magnitude but for three special characteristics. First, as is true for
immigrants in general, the migrants from these states are much younger than the recipient populations, a diference
that is accentuated by Europe's rapid aging. The migrants' birth rate is appreciably higher than the continent's
mean. Second, the immigrants are disproportionately concentrated in segregated neighborhoods in large cities. This
is seen in the data on religion: Rotterdam is nearly 50 percent Muslim; London's Muslim population has surpassed
one million; and Berlin has nearly 250,000 Muslims. Third, signifcant shares of these immigrants show little or no
sign of second-generation assimilation into their host societies. A tragically emblematic illustration of this last
reality is that three of the four suicide bombers responsible for the 7 July 2005 attacks in London were British-born
Pakistani Muslims. And while Christianity has become irrelevant to most Europeans, Islam is very relevant to
millions of these immigrants. The lack of assimilation results from resistance on both sides. On one side is Europe's
traditional ostracism (well illustrated by the perennial marginalization of the Rom) and the explicit policy of most
European governments not to press for assimilation (under the banner of multiculturalism). On the other side, and
perhaps more importantly, there is active resistance by an increasing share of immigrants whose demands for
transferring their norms into host countries range from segregated schooling and veiling of females to the
recognition of sharia law. What would happen if this infux of largely Muslim immigrants were to be increased to a
level that would prevent declines in Europe's working- age population? In many European countries, including
Germany and Italy, these new Muslim immigrants and their descendants would then add up to more than a third
of the total population by 2050 (United Nations 2000). Given the continent's record, such an infux would doom any
chances for efective assimilation.
AT: Immigration Links
Immigration wonRt cause t(e crunc(
Aongman #. [?'he Olo$al %a$( %"stA ,a(/>"ne *--+. Geprinted with permission from Foreign
8Dairs. 7hillip 5ongman is a Schwart# Senior Fellow; Gesearch Director, Kext Social ontract
3nitiati2e, Kew 8merica Fo"ndation. Formerl( a senior writer and dep"t( assistant managing editor
at :&S& Ne.s ; +orld ,eport, he has won n"mero"s awards for his $"siness and 0nancial writing,
incl"ding U58!s Oerald 5oe$ 8ward, and the top pri#e for in2estigati2e Fo"rnalism from
3n2estigati2e Geporters and Bditors.
http://www.catholiced"cation.org/articles/pop"lation/pc--++.htm]
Importing human capital If high-tech isn't the answer, what about immigration? It turns out that importing new,
younger workers is at best only a partial solution . To be sure, the United States and other developed nations derive
many benefts from their imported human capital. Immigration, however, does less than one might think to ease
the challenges of population aging . One reason is that most immigrants arrive not as babies but with a third or so of
their lives already behind them and then go on to become elderly themselves. In the short term, therefore,
immigrants can help to increase the ratio of workers to retirees, but in the long term, they add much less youth to
the population than would newborn children. Indeed, according to a study by the UN Population Division, if the
United States hopes to maintain the current ratio of workers to retirees over time, it will have to absorb an average
of 10.8 million immigrants annually through 2050. At that point, however, the U.S. population would total 1.1
billion, 73 percent of whom would be immigrants who had arrived in this country since 1995 or their descendants.
Just housing such a massive infux would require the equivalent of building another New York City every 10
months. And even if the homes could be built, it is unclear how long the United States and other developed nations
can sustain even current rates of immigration. One reason, of course, is heightened security concerns. Another is
the prospect of a cultural backlash against immigrants, the chances of which increase as native birthrates decline. In
the 1920s, when widespread apprehension about declining native fertility found voice in books such as Lothrop
Stoddard's The Rising Tide of Color Against White World-Supremacy, the U.S. political system responded by shu tting
of immigration. Germany, Sweden, and France did the same in the 1970s as the reality of population decline
among their native bor n started to set in. Another constraint on immigration to the United States involves supply.
Birthrates , having already fallen well below replacement levels in Europe and Asia, are now plummeting
throughout Latin America as well, which suggests that the United States' last major source of imported labor will
dry up. This could occur long before Latin nations actually stop growing as the example of Puerto Rico shows.
When most Americans think of Puerto Rico, they think of a sunny, over-crowded island that sends millions of
immigrants to the West Side of New York City or to Florida. Yet with a fertility rate well below replacement level
and a median age of 31.8 years, Puerto Rico no longer provides a net fow of immigrants to the mainland, despite
an open border and a lower standard of living. Evidently, Puerto Rico now produces enough jobs to keep up with
its slowing rate of population growth, and the allure of the mainland has thus largely vanished. For its part, sub-
Saharan Africa still produces many potential immigrants to the United States, as do the Middle East and parts of
South Asia. But to attract immigrants from these regions, the United States will have to compete with Europe,
which is closer geographically and currently has a more acute need for imported labor. Europe also ofers higher
wages for unskilled work, more generous social benefts, and large, already established populations of immigrants
from these areas. Even if the United States could compete with Europe for immigrants, it is by no means clear how
many potential immigrants these regions will produce in the future. Birthrates are falling in sub-Saharan Africa as
well as in the rest of the world, and war and disease have made mortality rates there extraordinarily high. UN
projections for the continent as a whole show fertility declining to 2.4 children per woman by mid-century, which
may well be below replacement levels if mortality does not dramatically improve. Although the course of the AIDS
epidemic through sub-Saharan Africa remains uncertain, the CIA projects that AIDS and related diseases could kill
as many as a quarter of the region's inhabitants by 2010.
AT: Immigration Bad
Immigrants are &e+ to population growt( and t(e econom+
2ren :: =Da2id, staD writer, 1Kew $lood essential to keep a societ( strong & ,8K8OB,BK'1 'he ;eekend
8"stralian, p. R-, 5exisC
'4B O@JBGK,BK'!S 3,,3OG8'3@K 7@53M KBBDS '@ %B BU8,3KBD %B8USB '4BGB 3S 8 KBBD F@G
7@7U58'3@K OG@;'4 and di2ersit( '4B proposed pream$le to the onstit"tion twice mentions the
contri$"tion made $( people from aro"nd the world. 3t acknowledges the national "nit( forged $(
people from man( ancestries and hails the nation&$"ilding of generations of immigrants. Met if
c"rrent policies remained, these lines wo"ld look 9"aintl( archaic in generations to come. 8ltho"gh
a migration program remains, it does not ser2e an( o$Fecti2es regarding 8"stralia!s pop"lation
composition or growth. 'he importance of $oth di2ersit( and pop"lation growth to $"siness is
increasingl( disc"ssed in the management literat"re. 8 societ( that lacks di2ersit( e2ent"all( falls
2ictim to its own recei2ed wisdom, while a stagnant pop"lation depri2es $"siness of the elixir of
growth. '4B G@5B @F ,3OG8K'S 3K S353@K J855BM 3S '4B SU%>B' @F 8 GBBK' S'UDM, ;434 7@3K'S
@U' '48' 8 _U8G'BG @F S'8G'&U7 @,78K3BS '4BGB 8GB GUK %M hinese and 3ndian engineers, while a
third of all engineers in the 2alle( are 3,,3OG8K'S . 'he contri$"tion of the immigrants in Silicon
Jalle( is not limited to their direct professional skills. 'he( also $ring the strength of their
comm"nities, esta$lishing associations to facilitate immigrant Fo$ search, information exchange,
access to capital and managerial know&how, and the creation of shared ethnic identities. 'he
region!s most s"ccessf"l hinese and 3ndian entreprene"rs rel( hea2il( on s"ch ethnic reso"rces
while integrating into the mainstream technolog( econom(. 'he a"thor of the st"d(, 8nna 5ee
Saxenian, comments: 1'4BSB KB; 3,,3OG8K' BK'GB7GBKBUGS OBKBG8'BD >@%S, BU7@G'S 8KD ;B85'4
F@G '4B GBO3@K 8KD '4BM 48JB S3,U5'8KB@US5M 8B5BG8'BD '4B 3K'BOG8'3@K @F 853F@GK38 3K'@
'4B O5@%85 B@K@,M. 'he long&distance social and economic linkages the( are constr"cting
contri$"te at least as m"ch to the region!s economic d(namism as the more direct Fo$ and wealth
creation.1
"conomic collapse causes glo1al nuclear war
!ead #: < Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign 7olic( at the o"ncil on Foreign Gelations =;alter G"ssell, 'he Kew Gep"$lic,
?@nl( ,akes Mo" StrongerA, */+, http://www.tnr.com/politics/stor(.htmlQidYL.)c$$$/&*::.&+d:)&
:L+*&/*e:H/)LfLf:XpY*C
3f c"rrent market t"rmoil serio"sl( damaged the performance and prospects of 3ndia and hina, the
c"rrent crisis co"ld Foin the Oreat Depression in the list of economic e2ents that changed histor(,
e2en if the recessions in the ;est are relati2el( short and mild. 'he United States sho"ld stand
read( to assist hinese and 3ndian 0nancial a"thorities on an emergenc( $asis&&and work 2er( hard
to help $oth co"ntries escape or at least weather an( economic downt"rn. 3t ma( test the political
will of the @$ama administration, $"t the United States m"st a2oid a protectionist response to the
economic slowdown. U.S. mo2es to limit market access for hinese and 3ndian prod"cers co"ld
poison relations for (ears. For $illions of people in n"clear&armed co"ntries to emerge from this
crisis $elie2ing either that the United States was indiDerent to their well&$eing or that it had
pro0ted from their distress co"ld damage U.S. foreign polic( far more se2erel( than an( mistake
made $( Oeorge ;. %"sh. 3t!s not F"st the great powers whose traFectories ha2e $een aDected $( the crash. 5esser powers like
Sa"di 8ra$ia and 3ran also face new constraints. 'he crisis has strengthened the U.S. position in the ,iddle Bast as falling oil prices red"ce
3ranian inE"ence and increase the dependence of the oil sheikdoms on U.S. protection. S"ccess in 3ra9&&howe2er late, howe2er "ndeser2ed,
howe2er limited&&had alread( impro2ed the @$ama administration!s prospects for addressing regional crises. Kow, the collapse in oil prices has
p"t the 3ranian regime on the defensi2e. 'he ann"al inEation rate rose a$o2e */ percent last Septem$er, "p from a$o"t ). percent in *--.,
according to 3ran!s %ank ,arka#i. Bconomists forecast that 3ran!s real OD7 growth will drop markedl( in the coming months as stagnating oil
re2en"es and the contin"ed glo$al economic downt"rn force the go2ernment to rein in its expansionar( 0scal polic(. 8ll this has weakened
8hmadineFad at home and 3ran a$road. 3ranian oDicials m"st $alance the relati2e merits of s"pport for allies like 4amas, 4e#$ollah, and S(ria
against domestic needs, while international sanctions and other diplomatic sticks ha2e $een made more painf"l and ;estern carrots =like trade
opport"nitiesC ha2e $ecome more attracti2e. ,eanwhile, Sa"di 8ra$ia and other oil states ha2e $ecome more dependent on the United States
for protection against 3ran, and the( ha2e fewer reso"rces to f"nd religio"s extremism as the( "se diminished oil re2en"es to s"pport $asic
domestic spending and de2elopment goals. Kone of this makes the ,iddle Bast an eas( target for U.S. diplomac(, $"t thanks in part to the
economic crisis, the incoming administration has the chance to tr( some new ideas and to enter negotiations with 3ran =and S(riaC from a
position of enhanced strength. B2er( crisis is diDerent, $"t there seem to $e reasons wh(, o2er time, 0nancial crises on $alance reinforce
rather than "ndermine the world position of the leading capitalist co"ntries. Since capitalism 0rst emerged in earl( modern B"rope, the a$ilit(
to exploit the ad2antages of rapid economic de2elopment has $een a ke( factor in international competition. o"ntries that can enco"rage&&or
at least allow and s"stain&&the change, dislocation, "phea2al, and pain that capitalism often in2ol2es, while pro2iding their t"m"lt"o"s market
societies with appropriate reg"lator( and legal frameworks, grow swiftl(. 'he( prod"ce c"tting&edge technologies that translate into militar(
and economic power. 'he( are a$le to in2est in ed"cation, making their workforces e2er more prod"cti2e. 'he( t(picall( de2elop li$eral
political instit"tions and c"lt"ral norms that 2al"e, or at least tolerate, dissent and that allow people of diDerent political and religio"s
2iewpoints to colla$orate on a 2ast social proFect of moderni#ation&&and to maintain political sta$ilit( in the face of accelerating social and
economic change. 'he 2ast prod"cti2e capacit( of leading capitalist powers gi2es them the a$ilit( to proFect inE"ence aro"nd the world and, to
some degree, to remake the world to s"it their own interests and preferences. 'his is what the United 6ingdom and the United States ha2e
done in past cent"ries, and what other capitalist powers like France, Oerman(, and >apan ha2e done to a lesser extent. 3n these co"ntries, the
social forces that s"pport the idea of a competiti2e market econom( within an appropriatel( li$eral legal and political framework are relati2el(
strong. %"t, in man( other co"ntries where capitalism r"$s people the wrong wa(, this is not the case. @n either side of the 8tlantic, for
example, the 5atin world is often drawn to anti&capitalist mo2ements and r"lers on $oth the right and the left. G"ssia, too, has ne2er reall(
taken to capitalism and li$eral societ(&&whether d"ring the time of the c#ars, the commissars, or the post&cold war leaders who so signall(
failed to $"ild a sta$le, open s(stem of li$eral democratic capitalism e2en as man( former ;arsaw 7act nations were making rapid transitions.
7artl( as a res"lt of these internal c"lt"ral press"res, and partl( $eca"se, in m"ch of the world, capitalism has appeared as an "nwelcome
interloper, imposed $( foreign forces and shaped to 0t foreign rather than domestic interests and preferences, man( co"ntries are onl( half&
heartedl( capitalist. ;hen crisis strikes, the( are 9"ick to decide that capitalism is a fail"re and look for alternati2es. So far, s"ch half&hearted
experiments not onl( ha2e failed to work; the( ha2e left the societies that ha2e tried them in a progressi2el( worse position, farther $ehind the
front&r"nners as time goes $(. 8rgentina has lost gro"nd to hile; G"ssian de2elopment has fallen farther $ehind that of the %altic states and
entral B"rope. Fre9"entl(, the crisis has weakened the power of the merchants, ind"strialists, 0nanciers, and professionals who want to
de2elop a li$eral capitalist societ( integrated into the world. risis can also strengthen the hand of religio"s extremists, pop"list radicals, or
a"thoritarian traditionalists who are determined to resist li$eral capitalist societ( for a 2ariet( of reasons. ,eanwhile, the companies and
$anks $ased in these societies are often less esta$lished and more 2"lnera$le to the conse9"ences of a 0nancial crisis than more esta$lished
0rms in wealthier societies. 8s a res"lt, de2eloping co"ntries and co"ntries where capitalism has relati2el( recent and shallow roots tend to
s"Der greater economic and political damage when crisis strikes&&as, ine2ita$l(, it does. 8nd, conse9"entl(, 0nancial crises often reinforce
rather than challenge the glo$al distri$"tion of power and wealth. 'his ma( $e happening (et again. Kone of which means that we can F"st sit
$ack and enFo( the recession. 4istor( ma( s"ggest that 0nancial crises act"all( help capitalist great powers maintain their leads&&$"t it has
other, less reass"ring messages as well. 3f 0nancial crises ha2e $een a normal part of life d"ring the H--&(ear rise of the li$eral capitalist
s(stem "nder the 8nglophone powers, so has war. 'he wars of the 5eag"e of 8"gs$"rg and the Spanish S"ccession; the Se2en Mears ;ar; the
8merican Ge2ol"tion; the Kapoleonic ;ars; the two ;orld ;ars; the cold war: 'he list of wars is almost as long as the list of 0nancial crises.
%ad economic times can $reed wars. B"rope was a prett( peacef"l place in )/*:, $"t the
Depression poisoned Oerman p"$lic opinion and helped $ring 8dolf 4itler to power. 3f the c"rrent
crisis t"rns into a depression, what ro"gh $easts might start slo"ching toward ,oscow, 6arachi,
%eiFing, or Kew Delhi to $e $ornQ 'he United States ma( not, (et, decline, $"t, if we can!t get the
world econom( $ack on track, we ma( still ha2e to 0ght.
AT: Immigration Bad
Immigrants are &e+ to readiness
-ardenas #$ =>ose, 'imes staD writer, 1Konciti#en soldiers 2iewed as militar( sol"tion1 St.
7eters$"rg 'imes, p. )%, 8pril *.C
%"t as the nation 0ghts wars on two fronts, SOME WONDER WHETHER THE MILITARY SHOULD RECRUIT
MORE HEAVILY AMONG IMMIGRANTS HERE & EVEN UNDOCUMENTED ONES & as well as foreigners in their
own co"ntries.
Mes, sa( some intellect"als at ;ashington, D.., think tanks.
1THOSE OF US WHO SUPPORT RECRUITING FOREIGNERS BELIEVE THEY ARE OFTEN VERY SKILLED,
MOTIVATED, AND IN THE GREAT AMERICAN TRADITION OF IMMIGRATION ,1 ,ichael @!4anlon, a %rookings
3nstit"tion senior fellow on foreign polic( said in an e&mail.
'he 1Dream 8ct1 $ill that failed in ongress last (ear wo"ld ha2e done more than legali#e
"ndoc"mented high school st"dents who aspire to college. 3t also wo"ld ha2e gi2en green cards to
"ndoc"mented high school st"dents who ser2ed in the militar(.
SUCH STUDENTS ARE WELL EDUCATED, THEY ARE NOT TROUBLEMAKERS, THEY ARE BILINGUAL, said
>orge ,ariscal, a professor of 5atino st"dies at the Uni2ersit( of alifornia, San Diego.
1THE MILITARY WANTS TO GET THEIR HANDS ON THOSE FOLKS ,1 added ,ariscal, a Jietnam 2eteran.
'he nonpro0t K8 orp. $ased in Jirginia has recommended mining the legal immigrant
comm"nit( more hea2il( for militar( recr"its.
1ONE OVERLOOKED SOURCE OF MILITARY MANPOWER IS IMMIGRANTS AND THEIR FAMILIES ,1 according to a
*--L report $( K8, which ad2ises p"$lic emplo(ers on iss"es ranging from national sec"rit( to
international aDairs.
13n fact,1 the organi#ation concl"ded, 1MUCH OF THE GROWTH IN THE RECRUITMENT!ELIGIBLE
POPULATION WILL COME FROM IMMIGRATION .1
!ilitar+ readiness is crucial to deterring conSicts around t(e world e,en perceptual
drops in readiness increase t(e ris& o0 nuclear war
Spencer ## =>ack Spencer, 7olic( 8nal(st for Defense and Kational Sec"rit( in the 6athr(n and
Shel$( "llom Da2is 3nstit"te for 3nternational St"dies at 'he 4eritage Fo"ndation. ?'he Facts
8$o"t ,ilitar( GeadinessA //L/*---C
3n recent months, '4B ,8>@G F@GB3OK 7@53M 3SSUB of the *--- presidential election campaign 48S
%BBK ,353'8GM GB8D3KBSS , with Jice 7resident 8l Oore and 'exas Oo2ernor Oeorge ;. %"sh each
addressing the s"$Fect. Oo2ernor %"sh has acc"sed the linton 8dministration of militar( neglect,
GBFBGG3KO '@ '4B U.S. 8G,BD F@GBS 8S ?8 ,353'8GM 3K DB53KB .A ) Jice 7resident Oore, on the other
hand, has co"ntered that ?@UG ,353'8GM 3S '4B S'G@KOBS' 8KD '4B %BS' 3K '4B BK'3GB ;@G5D .A
;hile there are clear signs that readiness is a pro$lem for the U.S. militar(, 8l Oore is fact"all(
correct when he contends that the U.S. 8G,BD F@GBS S'8KD F8G 8%@JB 8KM @'4BG ,353'8GM F@GB .
4e is missing a more important point, howe2er. '4B UK3'BD S'8'BS , as the most powerf"l nation in
the world, 48S GBS7@KS3%353'3BS 8KD K8'3@K85 SBUG3'M @KBGKS F8G %BM@KD '4@SB @F 8KM @'4BG
K8'3@ K. U.S. militar( readiness cannot $e ga"ged $( comparing 8mericaIs armed forces with other
nationsI militaries. 3nstead, '4B 878%353'M @F U.S. F@GBS '@ SU77@G' 8,BG38IS K8'3@K85 SBUG3'M
GB_U3GB,BK'S S4@U5D %B '4B ,B8SUGB @F U.S. ,353'8GM GB8D3KBSS . S"ch a standard is necessar(
$eca"se 8,BG38 ,8M @KFG@K' '4GB8'S FG@, ,8KM D3FFBGBK' K8'3@KS at once. 8mericaIs national sec"rit(
re9"irements dictate that the armed forces m"st $e prepared to defeat gro"ps of ad2ersaries in a gi2en war. 8merica, as the sole remaining
s"perpower, has man( enemies. %eca"se attacking 8merica or its interests alone wo"ld s"rel( end in defeat for a single nation, these enemies
are likel( to form alliances. 'herefore, $asing readiness on 8merican militar( s"periorit( o2er an( single nation has little salienc(. 'he
e2idence indicates that the U.S. armed forces are not read( to s"pport 8mericaIs national sec"rit( re9"irements. ,oreo2er, regarding the
$roader capa$ilit( to defeat gro"ps of enemies, militar( readiness has $een declining. 'he Kational Sec"rit( Strateg(, the U.S. oDicial
statement of national sec"rit( o$Fecti2es, H concl"des that the United States ?m"st ha2e the capa$ilit( to deter and, if deterrence fails, defeat
large&scale, cross&$order aggression in two distant theaters in o2erlapping time frames.A + 8ccording to some of the militar(Is highest&ranking
oDicials, howe2er, the United States cannot achie2e this goal. ommandant of the ,arine orps Oeneral >ames >ones, former hief of Ka2al
@perations 8dmiral >a( >ohnson, and 8ir Force hief of StaD Oeneral ,ichael G(an ha2e all expressed serio"s concerns a$o"t their respecti2e
ser2icesI a$ilit( to carr( o"t a two maFor theater war strateg(. L Gecentl( retired Oenerals 8nthon( Winni of the U.S. ,arine orps and Oeorge
>o"lwan of the U.S. 8rm( ha2e e2en 9"estioned 8mericaIs a$ilit( to cond"ct one maFor theater war the si#e of the )//) O"lf ;ar.
R,353'8GM GB8D3KBSS 3S J3'85 %B8USB DB53KBS 3K 8,BG38IS ,353'8GM GB8D3KBSS S3OK85 '@ '4B GBS'
@F '4B ;@G5D '48' '4B UK3'BD S'8'BS 3S K@' 7GB78GBD '@ DBFBKD 3'S 3K'BGBS'S . 'herefore,
7@'BK'3855M 4@S'35B K8'3@KS ;355 %B ,@GB 536B5M '@ 58S4 @U' 8O83KS' 8,BG38K 8553BS 8KD
3K'BGBS'S, 3KBJ3'8%5M 5B8D3KO '@ U.S. 3KJ@5JB,BK' 3K @,%8'. 8 43O4 S'8'B @F ,353'8GM GB8D3KBSS 3S
,@GB 536B5M '@ DB'BG 7@'BK'3855M 4@S'35B K8'3@KS FG@, 8'3KO 8OOGBSS3JB5M 3K GBO3@KS @F J3'85
K8'3@K85 3K'BGBS', '4BGB%M 7GBSBGJ3KO 7B8B .
At: Turns Caseopop poverty
,erpopulation does not lead to po,ert+
World Net ?ail+ 2& [?'he @2erpop"lation 5ieA ,a( *, *---. 8nthon( . 5o%aido is a Fo"rnalist
who spent a (ear working with the So"th 6orean armed forces. 4e appeared in the 6orean
doc"mentar( on United Kations Secretar( Oeneral %an 6i&moon.
http://www.wnd.com/news/article.aspQ8G'35BP3DY)/-.R]
!he ma=or ,ities in Asia AA ?ang2o2G SeoulG Singa&oreG !o26o an9 8ong @ong AA are o)er&o&ulate9G 4ut &ros&erous
ne)ertheless. ()er&o&ulation 9oes not lea9 to &o)ert6. Cor e%am&leG 8ong @ongG Singa&ore an9 !ai-an are )er6 9ensel6
&o&ulate9 an9 are some o0 the ri,hest nations in AsiaG i0 not the -orl9. !ai-an has a &o&ulation 9ensit6 o0 1G46* &er square
mileG -hile China has a &o&ulation 9ensit6 o0 16* &er square mile. DetG a,,or9ing to the CIA's H:orl9 Ca,t4oo2 1GH
!ai-an's &er ,a&ita gross 9omesti, &ro9u,t is K16G5**G -hile China's is K1G6**.