To What Extent Can Governments Control Birth Rates?

by Soukeyna Gueye, Kensington School, Barcelona. April 9th 2006

Many countries are experiencing the problems of a youthful or ageing population
and have taken measures to try to influence their birth rates since these affect
their economy and standard of living. Some measures have been more effective
than others, but ultimately government incentives may have little long term
influence.

The carrying capacity of a country is important in determining its optimum
population. Countries such as China, Singapore and Sweden are trying to bring
their population levels back to ones which are neither too large nor too small to
be supported by the resources available. If this is then achieved, their people will
have a better quality of life due to an increase in services, infrastructure and
incomes.

China, in the 1950s and 1960s had been experiencing high birth rates and a
decrease in death rates due to improved food supplies and medical care which
caused a fall in infant mortality. This resulted in a rapid natural increase as
people at that time believed that having more children to work the land meant a
higher guarantee for security in old age. But from 1958-1961, there was a 30%
fall in the birth rate with 35 million deaths caused by a catastrophic famine. This
was brought about by the communist leader Mao who introduced the policy, 'the
Great Leap Forward', with the aim of industrialising the country. However, he
paid little attention to farming and millions of peasants were made to work in
factories. Low agricultural production, with few farmers working on the land, led
to severe famines and a natural decrease in the population.

However, from 1963 China experienced a baby boom. Every three years its
population increased by 55 million which helped the recovery of its economy.
Attempts to control the population growth began in the 1970s as the
government was concerned that the carrying capacity of China might not be
sufficient to support a population growing at such a fast rate in the future.
Measures such as family planning and delaying marriages only succeeded in
reducing family size to three children which was still too many. A more drastic
policy had to be implemented in order to reduce the population growth rate even
further and so the 'one child policy' emerged. To convince families to only have
one child, parents were offered a 5-10% salary incentive for limiting their
families to one child. Their child would receive free education; they would have
priority housing, pension and family benefits.

China: phasing out its one-child policy
But if they did have more than one child they would be given a 10% salary
reduction or they could even lose their jobs. In addition they could receive a fine
large enough to bankrupt the family and their 'extra' child would not be given a
'household register' (school, jobs). The 'Granny Police' were in charge of
checking on couples of childbearing age and they would make sure that families
under their charge didnt break the rules. Contraception and abortion was widely
used to reduce pregnancies. However, it has resulted in a population imbalance,
with fewer girls than boys due to selective abortion and the dumping of girls.
Girls are less useful in rural areas for working in the fields and they do not bring
any long term benefit to their parents as they move to live with their husband's
parents when they marry. Many married couples did follow the one-child policy
which resulted in a decrease in birth rates in the 1970s to 1980s. However, since
the 1990s, the crude birth rate has fallen so low that the population is ageing and
if nothing is done China's population will shrink. Therefore, the policy has
changed to a 'two child policy' in rural villages. In urban areas, women prefer
keeping their career instead of bringing up a family. Furthermore, raising a child
has also become more and more expensive. The problem of the ageing
population in China has made the government consider a 'three child policy' to
maintain a low-cost workforce.

Singapore is experiencing a decline in population and in fertility rates. This is a
problem since there are now less and less people available to support the
increasingly ageing population. This means that there is a strain in the
production of resources for health care and other social services. In the late
1950s to the 1970s, there had been population growth of 4% per year. The
government convinced people to have fewer children with the slogan 'two is
enough'. But in 1984 the government reversed this policy, and started
stimulating fertility as the population of the Island was decreasing dramatically.

Singapore: all aboard for the love boat
The population growth was below replacement levels. The most successful
achievement at that time was Singapores 'baby bonus' packages which included
financial incentives to encourage couples to have two or more children. Parents
were given a tax relief for having a third child. However, by the 1990s there was
only a 1.6% growth in population which was still not high enough. To try to
encourage couples to have children, married couples who had children before
the age of 28 were offered a 7000 pounds tax break. Several additional measures
included government-sponsored matchmaking efforts through a Social
Development Unit. Its aim was to 'romance Singapore'. A month-long festival in
the Valentines period was introduced to try to bring people together. Other
measures included rock climbing for couples, a love boat river race, and a
vertical marathon called 'lovers challenge'. Tango parties, spa packages, and
weekend getaways like a 'love boat cruise' to a luxury resort were also included
along with numerous other activities. However, these schemes have yet to show
any real success.

Sweden today, is experiencing a decline in population, a recurring problem for
much of the twentieth century. Its birth rate in 1939 was below replacement
levels of 2.2 children per couple. The government needed to take action. A new
law prevented employers from dismissing women because of marriage,
pregnancy or childbirth. This helped push up the birth rate, as more women
were able to marry, have children and keep earning money. In the mid-1940s, a
general child allowance was introduced resulting in a peak of 2.5 children per
couple. However, this did not last for long as there followed a sharp fall in the
birth rate to 1.5 children per woman. The government decided to give increasing
support to parents and benefits to families with children, hoping to reverse the
trend because an ageing population could bring serious economic challenges.
Economic expansion in the 1960s gave increasing opportunities for schooling
and higher education, and well paid jobs. Women were able to combine family
life and a career. The birth rate as a result increased to more than 2.5 children
per woman but this was only temporary since many women found it difficult to
balance a full-time job with taking care of the home and children. The birth rate
fell in the 1970s to 1.6 children per woman. The early 1980s brought more
economic expansion and the birth rate increased to 2.1. Generous parental
benefits and improved child care conditions, allowed working women to
combine child rearing with work.

However, the shift from economic boom to deep recession and high
unemployment in the 1990s put an end to all of these reforms. Efforts to restore
the economy led to cuts in almost every area of the welfare system, including
parental benefits. The birth rate fell back to 1.5 children per woman at the end of
the 1990s, the lowest ever recorded. In the last few years of the decade, child
allowances and parental leave benefits were increased. Female employment
remained high but fewer women wanted start a family, as they felt uneasy about
their economic future. Meanwhile, the population continues to age and both
women and men in Sweden want first to work and earn an income of their own
before raising a family.

Thus in many countries governments have realised that it is very important to
control their birth rates to avoid the problems of over or under-population. In
the past, China (1970s), Singapore (1950s-1970s) and Sweden (1960s and
1980s) were experiencing high birth rates which put a strain on education, food
supplies, health services and available accommodation. It also meant the risk of a
lack of jobs in the future. Today, these same countries are trying to increase birth
rates as they face the problems of a growing ageing population and workforce
shortage. China's rigid imposition of a one-child policy was ultimately the most
successful, allowing an emerging low-cost female workforce to aid its rapid
industrialisation. Despite recent efforts to halt the decline, China's birth rate
continues to fall. The link between China's industrialisation and declining birth
rates, together with the experiences of Singapore and Sweden suggests that the
economic situation of a country appears to be more important than government
incentives when it comes to families deciding to have children.

* Cont spain to adobts baby bonus scheme