Welcome to the Era of Big Data and Predictive

Analytics in Higher Education

Ellen Wagner
WICHE Cooperative for Educational Technologies

Joel Hartman
University of Central Florida
The Focus of this Session
This session will present an introduction to the emerging and
evolving topics of Big Data and predictive analytics particularly
as they apply to higher education and the use of data to improve
student persistence and outcomes.
An overview of Big Data, an introduction to the Predictive
Analytics Reporting (PAR) Framework, and an institutions
perspective on these issues along with their implementation of
analytics will be presented.
Postsecondary Education and
the New Normal
Unprecedented demands for Accountability, Efficiency,
Effectiveness
Increased expectations for greater transparency
A recognition that shared services are more than just a good
idea that somebody else should do
More competition than ever before.
We Can RunBut We Cant Hide
New Approaches to the New Normal: 2012 Higher Education
Legislative Recap in the West (Nov 27, 2012)
(http://www.wiche.edu/info/publications/PI-2012PolicyInsights )
Notable issues: postsecondary finance, including attempts to
implement a new wave of outcomes-based funding;
completion, accountability and major governance changes.
Specific issues include adult learners, workforce development,
and the implementation of Common Core Standards.
Tight budgets will continue to impact higher ed leading to an
increased focus on productivity and flexibility for institutions
and students
Costs increase and completion rates
Source: New York Times; NCES
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
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9
9
6
1
9
9
7
1
9
9
8
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9
9
9
2
0
0
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2-yr colleges
4-yr colleges
Graduation rates at 150% of time
Cohort year
The need to flip the curve
Higher
enrollments
More
completions
Deeper
learning
outcomes
Rising
expectations
Constrained
resources
Source: 2011 Community Colleges and the Economy, AACC/Campus Computing Project, April 2011;
Community College Student Survey, Pearson Foundation/Harris Interactive, Field dates: September 27th
through November 4th, 2010

Limited
seat
capacity
Budget
cuts

Declining
family
ability to
pay
90% of community
colleges in 2010 and
69% in 2011
Additional 300k to 1
million credentials
needed per year
Demands of globalized,
information economy
32% of community
college students unable
to enroll in classes; CA
turning away up to 670k
students per year
58% of community
college budgets cut in
2011-2012; 41% of cuts
>5%; long-term
competition with
healthcare
Student load debt now
greater than all
consumer loan debt
Innovation and Educational
Transformation
The term innovation derives from the Latin word innovare "to
renew or change."
Innovation generally refers to the creation of better or more
effective products, processes, technologies, or ideas that
affect markets, governments, and society.
Technologies frequently featured in todays mix of solutions
for solving problem and promoting innovation

Tech Trend and Analytics
Data Warehouses and the Cloud make it possible to collect,
manage and maintain massive numbers of records.
Sophisticated technology platforms provide computing power
necessary for grinding through calculations and turning the
mass of numbers into meaningful patterns.
Data mining uses descriptive and inferential statistics
moving averages, correlations, and regressions, graph
analysis, market basket analysis, and tokenization to look
inside those patterns for actionable information.
Predictive techniques, such as neural networks and decision
trees, help anticipate behavior and events.
Why the Emergence of Big Data?
Expectations for accountability to stakeholders
Demands for evidence to guide and support decision-making
Finding metrics that matter to institutions AND individuals
Technology platforms provide a means to the end.
Where are we headed?
Business Models
Provide Guidance
Courtesy Phil Ice
Big Data and Analytics and
Frameworks, Oh, My

BIG DATA AND ANALYTICS ARE
TAKING HIGHER EDUCATION BY
STORM

Where to Begin?????
Uncertainty about where to start
No established industry best practice about what to
measure
No established industry best practice around methodology
Institutional Culture, Learning Culture and Status Quo
Enterprise concern about what the data will show
Competing priorities and lack of incentive for collaboration
between different groups
Siloed data across the enterprise doesnt help.
13
Sage Road Solutions LLC
Evidence-based decision-making
Success and decision making are predicated on access to
data
Understanding strengths and weaknesses is dependent on
having access to all data within the enterprise
Data tells us what has happened and improves strategic
planning moving forward

14
What is the PAR Framework?
A big data analysis effort identify drivers related
to loss and momentum and to inform student loss
prevention

WCET member institutions voluntarily contribute
de-identified student records to create a single
federated database.
Making Data Matter
Gather
the data
Turn the
data into
information
Use the
information to
help learners
Institutional Partners
American Public University
System*
Ashford University
Broward College
Capella University
Colorado Community College
System*
Lone Star College System
Penn State World Campus
Rio Salado College*
Sinclair Community College

Troy University
University of Central Florida
University of Hawaii System*
University of Illinois
Springfield*
University of Maryland
University College
University of Phoenix*
Western Governors University
Predicated on a framework
of common data definitions
Common data definitions at the foundation of
reusable predictive models and meaningful
comparisons.
Common data definitions openly published via
a cc license
https://public.datacookbook.com/public/instit
utions/par

Multi-
institutional data
Institutional
Data
College Data
Program
Data
Classroom
/Instructor
Data
Studen
t Data
LMS
DATA


33 Variables
and
common
definitions
from POC





>70 variables
and growing
during
implementation



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Making Data Matter Via Modeling

Model building is an
iterative process
Around 70-80% efforts
are spent on data
exploration and
understanding.

What are we going to DO
with what weve learned????
Some of PARs Products
V
a
l
i
d
a
t
e
d

M
u
l
t
i
-
I
n
s
t
i
t
u
t
i
o
n
a
l

D
a
t
a
s
e
t


Reflective Report
Benchmark
Reports
Aggregate Models Policy
Institutional
Models
Local Intervention
Student Watch
List
Comparative
Interventions
Actionable Predictive Models


PAR Student Success Matrix
Powerful Framework for benchmarking student
services and interventions
Quantified intervention effectiveness
results

Quantified intervention effectiveness results

Quantification of Intervention Effectiveness

Reusable
predictive
models
Common Definitions
of Risk
Student level
watch lists for
targeted
interventions
Multi-Institutional collaboration
Measurable
results
PREDICT
ACT
RESULTS
Common Definitions
of interventions
Scalable cross-institutional improvements

Partner Perspectives:
The University of Central Florida

Dr. Joel Hartman
Vice Provost for Information Technologies and
Resources and CIO
THANKS for your interest
http://parframework.org
http://wcet.wiche.edu

Big Data
&
UCF Student
Success
1
From Data To Information
Era Evolutionary Step Technologies Perspective
1960s-
1970s
Data Collection Computers, tapes, disks Retrospective, static
data delivery
1980s Data Access RDBMS, SQL, ODBC Retrospective, dynamic
data delivery
1990s Data Warehouses, Data
Marts, Decision Support
Tools, BI
Data warehouses,
data marts, OLAP
Retrospective, dynamic
data delivery
2000s Data Mining /
Big Data
Models, algorithms,
fast computers,
massive databases,
dashboards
Prospective, proactive
information delivery,
visualization, and
exploration
Source: Kurt Thearling
An Information Architecture
Policy, security, technology infrastructure,
software, and people
Hierarchy of users and information needs
Hierarchy of tools and methods
Full-service to self-service support
In support of information-driven planning
and decision making
Analytics / Data Science
The extraction of hidden predictive
information from large databases
determination of rules working in the target
environment, but hidden in the data
future events, trends, behaviors
can tag individuals
predictive capabilities
Barriers
Lack of executive vision or familiarity
Inability to associate important business
problems with big data solutions
Users or executives rooted in a
retrospective or green bar mentality
Cost
No data warehouse or analytical tools
Data quality issues
Uncollected data cannot be analyzed

UCF Information Architecture
6
Student Success Initiative Goals
Increase student completion rates
Reduce time to degree
Minimize excess credit hour accumulation
7
8
BIG
DATA
DEGREE
PROGRAM
SUPPORT
INTERVENTIONS
PROGRESS
P.R.O.G.R.E.S.S. Probing to Remove Obstacles toward Graduation and Retention for Enrolled Student Success
PeopleSoft
Degree Audit
Mapping &
Tracking
Core Services
Intervention
Support
Programs
Intervention
Academic
Support
Programs
Intervention
Different Levels of Insight
1. How many logins, page views,
and other metrics have
occurred over time?
2. What were the course
completion rates for a
particular program over time?
What were the attributes of
the students who didnt
successfully complete?
3. Which tools are being used in
courses the most?







1. Which students are exhibiting
behaviors early in the semester
which put them at risk for
dropping or failing a course?
2. What is the predicted course
completion rate for a particular
program? Which students are
currently at risk for completing
and why?
3. Which tools and content in the
course are directly correlated
to student success?



Descriptive Analytics Predictive Analytics
9
Civitas Learning and PAR
Project: Insights from Big Data
Translate complex data into real-time, personalized
recommendations to inform decisions and
interventions that
lead to student success
10
15
Big Data
&
UCF Student
Success
16