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Indra Dian Bakhtiar

29113070

INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY

Outcomes and event Outcomes is all possibility that can happen in one experiment. Event consist of one or more possible outcome. Approach to Probability There are three approach to get the probability

1)

The classical approach

In the classical approach we can know the probability of event will occur by using this formula:

Number

of outcome which represent the occurrence of the event

2)

Total number of the possible outcome The relative frequency approach Relative frequency approach is a probability that based on the historical data or repeated event if stable condition apply. The subjective approach

3)

Subjective probability is a probability that derived from individual personal judgment or belief about whether a specific event will occur. Mutually exclusive and exhaustive events Mutually exclusive happen if the occurrence of one event trigger the simultaneous occurrence of one other event. The addition rules The addition rules is depend on whether the events are mutually exclusive or not. If the events are mutually exclusive then the addition rule is:

p (A or B) = p(A) + p(B) (where A and B are the events) If the events are not mutually exclusive then the addition rule is:

p(A or B) = p(A) + p(B) - p(A and B) Complementary event Complementary event is an event which is an opposite toward particular event, the example of complementary event is: if one event said that “Dega is hungry” then the complementary event is “Dega is not hungry”. Independent and dependent event Independent event happen if two event X and Z didn’t affected each other in term of occurrence and non-occurrence. The probability of occurrence event X didn’t affected by occurrence or non-occurrence of event Z. If two event, X and Z are independent, then:

P (X|Z) = p (Z) In the other hand if one event affected by other event occurrence than the two event has to be dependent. The multiplication rule Additional rule can calculate the probability of either one event or another one will occur, but in some case there is need to calculate the probability that the 2 event will occur together. The probability of the two event, X and Y, occur is called joint probability, to calculate joint probability we can use the multiplication rule. There is a condition before apply the multiplication rule, the two events must be independent. The multiplication rule:

P (X and Z) = p (X) x p (Z)

Indra Dian Bakhtiar

29113070

If the events are not independent, then the multiplication rule is:

P (X and Z) = p (X) × p (X|Z)

Probability Distribution Probability distribution is the complete statement of all possible event that can occur, a particular course of action that chosen and their probabilities of occurrence. Expected values Expected value is a weighted average with each possible value of the uncertain quantity being weighted by its probability of occurrence. The axiom of probability theory Axiom 1: positiveness In axiom 1 the probability of an event that occurring must be non-negative Axiom 2: Certainty In axiom 2 the probability of an event that is certain to occur is 1. For axiom 1 and 2 the probability of occurring must be at least 0 and below 1. Axim 3: Unions If event X and Z are mutually exclusive then: p (X or Z) =p (X) + p (Z)