Indra Dian Bakhtiar

29113070
INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY
Outcomes and event
Outcomes is all possibility that can happen in one experiment. Event consist of one or more
possible outcome.
Approach to Probability
There are three approach to get the probability
1) The classical approach
In the classical approach we can know the probability of event will occur by using
this formula:
______Number of outcome which represent the occurrence of the event_____
Total number of the possible outcome
2) The relative frequency approach
Relative frequency approach is a probability that based on the historical data or
repeated event if stable condition apply.
3) The subjective approach
Subjective probability is a probability that derived from individual personal judgment
or belief about whether a specific event will occur.
Mutually exclusive and exhaustive events
Mutually exclusive happen if the occurrence of one event trigger the simultaneous
occurrence of one other event.
The addition rules
The addition rules is depend on whether the events are mutually exclusive or not.
If the events are mutually exclusive then the addition rule is:
p (A or B) = p(A) + p(B) (where A and B are the events)
If the events are not mutually exclusive then the addition rule is:
p(A or B) = p(A) + p(B) - p(A and B)
Complementary event
Complementary event is an event which is an opposite toward particular event, the example
of complementary event is: if one event said that Dega is hungry then the complementary
event is Dega is not hungry.
Independent and dependent event
Independent event happen if two event X and Z didnt affected each other in term of
occurrence and non-occurrence. The probability of occurrence event X didnt affected by
occurrence or non-occurrence of event Z. If two event, X and Z are independent, then:
P (X|Z) = p (Z)
In the other hand if one event affected by other event occurrence than the two event has to
be dependent.
The multiplication rule
Additional rule can calculate the probability of either one event or another one will occur,
but in some case there is need to calculate the probability that the 2 event will occur
together. The probability of the two event, X and Y, occur is called joint probability, to
calculate joint probability we can use the multiplication rule. There is a condition before
apply the multiplication rule, the two events must be independent. The multiplication rule:
P (X and Z) = p (X) x p (Z)
Indra Dian Bakhtiar
29113070
If the events are not independent, then the multiplication rule is:
P (X and Z) = p (X) p (X|Z)
Probability Distribution
Probability distribution is the complete statement of all possible event that can occur, a
particular course of action that chosen and their probabilities of occurrence.
Expected values
Expected value is a weighted average with each possible value of the uncertain quantity
being weighted by its probability of occurrence.
The axiom of probability theory
Axiom 1: positiveness
In axiom 1 the probability of an event that occurring must be non-negative
Axiom 2: Certainty
In axiom 2 the probability of an event that is certain to occur is 1. For axiom 1 and 2 the
probability of occurring must be at least 0 and below 1.
Axim 3: Unions
If event X and Z are mutually exclusive then: p (X or Z) =p (X) + p (Z)