Threat Report July 2014

Terrorism as a threat to the Jewish Community

in the Netherlands,
Bij Leven en Welzijn Foundation
July 2014
Threat report July 2014
Foreword
The situation is critical and the only short-term solution is adequate security
The Bij Leven En Welzijn Foundation (BLEW) herewith presents its first Threat Report on the situation
regarding the Jewish Community in the Netherlands. The purpose of this report is to identify the
threats facing the Jewish community in the Netherlands.
In addition to outlining the most important factors which determine the threat situation, we
introduce the BLEW index, a tool which provides an objective measurement of the threat level at any
given moment in time. To that end we use the formula: 'Threat = Probability + Risk'.
The report covers the situation over the last two years. The reason for this is that since 2012 the
security situation has significantly deteriorated, due to the increasing number of jihad fighters (and
returnees) of European origin. Upon return to Europe that jihadism is normally directed against
Western targets, in particular, American and Israeli. Seeing that in Europe, American and Israeli
targets (such as consulates, embassies and information centres) are under high security, a more
interesting and achievable goal from a perpetrator's perspective is a Jewish soft target such as a
synagogue, school or museum which, for many, is synonymous with an Israeli target.
Moreover, the situation is all the more dangerous because the thousands of foreign jihadists now
returning to Europe are well trained, and are not bound by borders between member states.
Besides, it would prove impossible for Intelligence services to monitor them on a permanent basis.
These and other factors have been incorporated into the BLEW monitor: our conclusion is that
the threat level must be classified as critical and that the security and safety needs of the Jewish
community are greater than ever.
As far back as 2012 BLEW informed the relevant government authorities that the security situation
regarding the Jewish community in the Netherlands was becoming critical. At the time, the relevant
government authorities did not share that reading of the situation. In the wake of attacks on
Jewish institutions in neighbouring countries (in Toulouse in 2012 and recently in Brussels) and
the ever-increasing number of jihadists returning predominantly from Syria, the AIVD [Dutch
General Intelligence and Security Service] published the following report at the end of last June
entitled: 'Transformatie van het jihadisme in Nederland' (Transformation of jihadism in the
Netherlands). Our conclusions are consistent with theirs. The Dutch jihadist movement is stronger
than ever and poses an increasing threat to national security in general and to the Jewish community
in particular. We therefore believe that this report will make an important contribution both to
raising awareness of the security situation in general and to shedding light on the situation facing
the Jewish community in the Netherlands.
At the moment of publication there is an ongoing Israeli military operation, Protective Edge, in the
Gaza Strip. The operation was begun to stop Hamas from continually firing rockets from Gaza on
Israel and put a stop to terrorist attempts to infiltrate Israel via tunnels. A concrete analysis of the
above situation is not included in this report, but (inter)national developments already show that
there is, also in the Netherlands, a clear relationship between military tensions in the Middle East
and manifestations of anti-Israel sentiment in the form of outbreaks of anti-Semitism.
2
Threat report July 2014
Dennis Mok,
Chairman Stichting Bij Leven en Welzijn Foundation
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Threat report July 2014
Table of contents
Foreword 2
Table of Contents 4
1. Summary and conclusions 5
2. Analysis 6
3. Terrorism 10
Incidents 2013 11
Incidents January 2014 - June 2014 inclusive 13
Syria 14
4. Anti-Semitism 16
The Netherlands anti-Semitic incidents statistics 17
Antisemitism on the Internet 2013 18
Damage and desecration 19
Phyical violence 20
5. Politics 23
The Netherlands 23
Europe 23
6. Conclusion 25
4
Threat report July 2014
1. Summary and conclusions
The findings set out below are made on the basis of a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the
current situation in the Netherlands. Where relevant, the situation in surrounding countries has been
incorporated into the report.
Our analysis reveals the following:
- The threat level to the Jewish community in the Netherlands is critical: the BLEW index
shows that it scores 76.5/100.
- The current risk of a potential terrorist attack is extremely high in view of the large number
of active Dutch (and European) combatants and supporters of the various jihadist militant
groups as well as the undiminished threat from 'classical' terrorist organizations such as
Hezbollah.
- The operational security department has observed an increase in possible preparatory acts
such as information gathering, indicative of possible future attacks.
- Over the last three years there have been four attacks globally, with fatal consequences,
directed specifically at Jewish communities. Furthermore, many attacks at various stages of
preparation have been foiled.
- BLEW sees in the Netherlands a disproportionately large breeding grounds for anti-
Semitism as well as a political acceptance of the blurring of the distinction between anti-
Zionism and anti-Semitism.
- Since March 2013 the threat level in the Netherlands stands at substantial, the second-
highest level on the NCTV (National Coordinator for Security and Counterterrorism) scale.
Therefore, it is, our opinion that:
- The Dutch government needs to ensure that the Jewish community will not degenerate
into the weakest link, thus becoming the soft target of Jewish communities in Europe. In
comparison with surrounding countries the current approach of the Dutch government can
be classified as reactive.
- In the short term, it is necessary to implement higher security measures for the protection
of the Jewish community, its agencies and (religious) institutions in order to withstand the
critical level at which the current threat stands. In the longer term, national governments
within Europe will have to take concerted action to combat terrorism.
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Threat report July 2014
2. Analysis
The level of threat to the Jewish community in the Netherlands is critical.
Method
The present report, Terrorism as a threat to the Jewish Community in the Netherlands, comprises
a review of the registration of incidents and developments in 2013 and the first half of 2014. On
the basis of official statistics from the Centre Information and Documentation Israel (CIDI), the
Discrimination on the Internet Reporting Centre (MDI) in the Netherlands, the Community Security
Trust (CST) and the Service de Protection de la Communaut Juive (SPCJ) in England and France,
respectively, an endeavour has been made to compile a clear account of anti-Semitism in the recent
past. Moreover, comparisons are made and trends shown for the period 2011 - 2013. Use was made
of open-source information in the analysis of incidents and trends during 2014.
By linking officially registered incidents to recent developments in global terror and evaluating the
findings of the operational security department of BLEW, an analysis has been made, assessing
the current threat situation facing the Jewish community in the Netherlands. BLEW has devised a
quantitative index to support the analysis of qualitative data, thus enabling the level of threat to
the Jewish community in the Netherlands to be expressed numerically. The BLEW index acts as a
point of departure for the threat analysis, whereby the ranking per element is substantiated by
qualitative arguments. The analysis utilizes the results obtained from BLEW's quantitative index,
further substantiated by qualitative analysis. For source information see Chapters 3-5 of this report.
BLEW index
The purpose of the BLEW index is to assess the threat of a possible terrorist attack on the Jewish
community in the Netherlands. To assess the threat, the probability and level of risk of a terrorist
attack are measured separately. Both elements are measured on a scale from 0-50; the scores thus
obtained are then added together to determine the total score ranging from 0-100.
The index is periodically updated at intervals coinciding with the publication of the BLEW threat
report . The formula used is:
FORMULA: THREAT = PROBABILITY + RISK
The table below shows the score per element on the BLEW index.
BLEW index July 2014
PROBABILITY SCORE
1 Potential terrorism 9
2 Attacks assessment 8
3 Anti-semitism 8
4 Threat level NL 7
5 Relative level of security* 8
RISK
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Threat report July 2014
1 Human damage 9.5
2 Material damage 4
3 Psychological damage 9
4 Departure from the Netherlands 9
5 Level of crisis management* 5
TOTAL 76.5/100
*The relative security level and crisis management level are elements whereby a reverse order count is applicable i.e. a high
count means a low score and therefore a lower probability of risk.
Based on the above score, the threat level is determined by reference to the table below:
TOTAAL SCORE THREAT LEVEL
00 - 30 WHITE / MINIMUM
30 - 50 YELLOW / ELEVATED
50 - 70 ORANGE / SUBSTANTIAL
70 - 100 RED/CRITICAL
With a score of 76.5 the current situation is deemed to be 'critical'.
Qualitative analysis
The year 2013 and the first half of 2014 are characterized by a rise in the number of anti-Semitic
incidents and in the number of Europeans joining the jihad in Syria. Terrorist experts in the
Netherlands recognise that the size of such groups is large and that jihadist activity is at an extremely
high and dangerous level. The monitoring by intelligence services of such large numbers of potential
terrorists, moving easily between country borders, is a virtually impossible task of mammoth
proportions. In March 2013 on the basis of available information on Islamic jihad fighters, the NCTV
(National Coordinator for Security and Counterterrorism) decided to increase the Netherlands threat
level to substantial, the second-highest threat level on the NCTV's classification list.
The threat emanating from the ever-increasing group of jihad fighters is extremely high, whereby,
as appears from jihadist propaganda and recent attacks, American, Israeli and Jewish targets are
primary goals. The war in Syria sees the radicalization of Western jihadists who have undergone
military training by such groups as the Al-Nusra Front and ISIS (Islamist State in Iraq and al-Sham) . In
March 2012 the favoured goal of a jihadist fighter, who returned radicalized and having undergone
military training, turned out to be an attack on the Jewish community, as evidenced by the attack
on the Jewish Ozar Hatorah school in Toulouse, carried out by the French jihadist, Mohammed
Merah, in which he murdered four people. Tens of radicalized jihadists with military experience
are expected to return from Syria over the next few years. The threat to the Jewish community in
connection with this was also demonstrated by the attack in May 2014 on the Jewish Museum in
Brussels, in which four people were murdered in cold blood by Mehdi Nemmouche. He was a French
jihad fighter who returned from Syria where he had gained military experience, and was arrested a
week after committing the attack, his weapons found wrapped in an ISIS flag. These attacks and their
perpetrators clearly demonstrate the link between jihadism and the threat to the Jewish community
According to statistics from the AIVD (the Dutch General Intelligence and Security Service), more
than 130 people left the Netherlands for Syria; however, the jihadist movement in the Netherlands
still has hundreds of supporters and thousands of sympathisers as well
1
. Their sympathisers also
1
AIVD, June 2014; Transformatie van het jihadisme in Nederland
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Threat report July 2014
pose a real threat: by being continuously exposed to propaganda and the glorification of violent
jihad, they show an increasing willingness to commit acts of violence. The threat, however, does not
come exclusively from returning Dutch jihadist fighters. It is the cross-border character of the jihadist
threat which, according to the NCTV, creates a situation in which the threat emanates both from
the tens of jihadists returning to the Netherlands and from the hundreds of jihadists returning all
over Europe. The NCTV also reports that Jewish locations are more likely to be the target of any such
terrorist attack
2
. In view of the above, the NCTV considers that an attack specifically targeting the
Jewish community in the Netherlands is highly conceivable
3
.
In spite of the structural presence of security measures financed by the Jewish community itself,
the likelihood of an attack on the Dutch Jewish community is increasing. Where the governments
of neighbouring countries guarantee a structural commitment and a proactive approach, the Dutch
government did not seem to appreciate the seriousness of the situation facing the Jewish community
until the motive for the attack in Brussels became apparent. Even so, the specific situation in the
Netherlands is extremely serious and the Jewish community must be guarded against becoming
the weakest link and therefore the soft target of Jewish communities in Europe. The structural
presence of specially trained police units for the protection of Jewish institutions can offer an
effective solution to this, as was shown by the prevention of an attack in Paris on 14 June 2014 (see
paragraph: 'Incidents January to June 2014').


Figure1: threat pyramid
The starting point of our analysis is that threat comprises specific structural elements, which is best
presented in the form of a pyramid (figure 1). At the foot of the pyramid is (passive) anti-Semitism. In
a climate where anti-Semitic sentiment is not only growing but also acceptable, it creates a breeding
grounds for demonstrations, an early indicator of rising opposition to the Jewish community.
Unlike other countries there has been a perceptible rise in anti-Semitism in the Netherlands,
whereby the presence of anti-Semitism material on the Internet, which is disproportionately high
in relation to the size of the Jewish community, is a cause for concern. An example of this is the
Boycott, Desinvestments and Sanctions movement (BDS), which takes an explicit anti-Zionist stance
2
NCTV, 30-6-2014; Threat situation Terrorism in the Netherlands 36
3
Letter from the mayor of Amsterdam, Eberhard Van der Laan, to the City Council of Amsterdam, 5-6-2014;
Measures for [protecting] Jewish property in Amsterdam
8
Terror
Violence
ew
Damage &
Desecration
Demonstrations
(Passive) Antisemitism
Threat report July 2014
in addition to voicing such expressions on the Internet during inter alia Jewish events. Its members
also specifically hold Dutch Jews responsible for political developments in Israel, which is de facto
anti-Semitic in nature. The outcome is to facilitate the blurring of the distinction between anti-
Zionism and anti-Semitism, which blurring is having a major impact on the views of young people. In
this way an incident in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict comes to have a direct bearing on the security
situation of the Jewish community, inter alia, by means of an increase in anti-Semitic sentiment
and in the number of demonstrations held. The next stage in this model is the shift to physical
expressions against (purported) Jewish property, the category 'Damage and Desecration'. From that
point, it is just a small step from a violent physical attack on a Jewish individual to the ultimate act of
violence, a terrorist attack.
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Threat report July 2014
3. Terrorism
This chapter is exclusively devoted to the discussion of Muslim extremism, including jihadist
terrorism. Other terrorist movements are outside the scope of the discussion in the absence of
relevance to the Jewish community. An exception to this is an attack in the United States specifically
targeting Jews, see paragraph on 'Incidents January to June 2014'.
General speaking, there has been a perceptible departure from primarily generic mass casualty
attacks, such as the ones in Madrid (2004), London (2005) and Mumbai (2008), towards attacks that
are directed specifically at 'soft' targets. Below are several examples of Jewish and Israeli objects
and individuals that were the target of attacks in the past few years, such as the ones in Toulouse
(France), 2012, Burgas (Bulgaria), 2012 and Brussels (Belgium) in 2014. Recent Europol reports
extensively discuss the threat posed by radicalized Muslim extremists who are increasingly active,
inter alia, on account of their actual involvement in the armed struggle. Whereas in and around
2011 radicalisation via the Internet was the main cause for concern, the last few years has been
characterized by the ever more prominent role played by increasingly violent individuals or groups,
operating independently, who are inspired by the radical form of Islam
4
.
In 2013 the number of attacks linked to jihadist terrorism increased globally: the bombing of the
Boston marathon, the brutal murder of a British soldier in London, followed by the stabbing of a
French soldier in Paris a few days later, to name but a few.
Many terrorist groups target the United States, the West and Israel from an Islamic perspective.
Where actual and failed attacks are concerned, it often appears that specific Israeli and American
targets (airlines, embassies, consulates, other companies and agencies) are so well-guarded that they
are no longer a viable target. Over the past few years the United States has been able to foil several
attacks on Jewish institutions that were in various stages of preparation
5
.
However, in the eyes of (jihadist) terrorist organisations and their ideology, the Jewish community
is equated with Zionism and the State of Israel. Seen from that perspective, those terrorists view
buildings, institutions and persons belonging to the Jewish community as legitimate and relatively
easy targets.
Recent examples of this blurring of lines are, inter alia, the series of attacks by Pakistani jihadists
in Mumbai in 2008, during which, in addition to diverse 'general' targets (including hotels, a train
station, a police station and a hospital), there was also a specific Jewish goal: a Jewish community
centre, a so-called Chabad house, a semi-public building run by a global Jewish religious organization.
4
Europol: TE-SAT 2011, TE-SAT 2012, TE-SAT 2013, TE-SAT 2014
5
The Heritage Foundation, 22-7-2013: Special Report #137, 60 terrorist plots since 9/11: Continued Lessons in
Domestic Counterterrorism
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Threat report July 2014
In March 2012 an attack was carried out on a Jewish school in Toulouse, in the course of which a
French jihadist shot dead three children and one parent. The same man had in a previous attack
shot and killed several [French] soldiers before deciding to attack the school. In July of the same
year there was an attack on Burgas airport in Bulgaria, whereby a bus carrying Israeli tourists was
blown up. Hezbollah was held responsible for the attack, which was carried out by two individuals,
an Austrian and a Canadian, both of Lebanese origin. Incidentally, that attack coincided with the 18th
anniversary of the attack in 1994 on the Jewish community in Argentina
6
, which left 85 dead and
more than 300 wounded.
Incidents 2013
As far as terrorism is concerned, in 2013 the focus of almost the whole of Western Europe was firmly
fixed on the conflict in Syria and the surrounding region. The AIVD first raised public awareness about
the number of youngsters joining the armed struggle at the end of January, and since then there has
been a lot of media attention on the subject
7
. This report later devotes a separate paragraph to Syria,
which discusses the numbers, the background and motivation of the youngsters referred to and the
threat emanating from the various factions they join.
In 2013 terror-related incidents occurred that specifically targeted the Jewish community in nearby
countries. Here follows a brief overview:
Great Britain
In April a group of 11 men were arrested in connection with several potential bomb attacks in which
synagogues were specifically mentioned.
8
Cyprus
A 24-year-old man of Swedish-Lebanese origin was found guilty of being involved in preparations
for an attack in Cyprus.
9
Israeli tourists were the target. However, he also admitted gathering
information for the same organization on a number of other locations in Europe: he was specifically
interested in kosher restaurants. It later turned out that in the course of his preparatory activities he
had, inter alia, also visited Amsterdam
10
. The same man was arrested 11 days prior to the attack in
Burgas in 2012.
Italy
A 22-year-old man was found guilty of planning attacks on a synagogue and Jewish school in Milan.
Investigators found on his computer analyses of the security measures for both the synagogue and
the school. Moreover, he was suspected of having set up various secret radicalization networks on
social media.
11
6
Wikipedia: AMIA bombing
7
AIVD: Annual report 2013
8
BBC News, 26-4-2013: Terror plot: Jail terms for Birmingham bomb plotters
9
New York Times, 21-3-2013: Hezbollah Courier Found Guilty in Plot to Attack Israeli Tourists in Cyprus
10
New York Times, 21-3-2013: Hezbollah Courier Found Guilty in Plot to Attack Israeli Tourists in Cyprus
11
Jerusalem Post, 29-7-2013: Moroccan jailed for Milan synagogue bomb plot
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Threat report July 2014
Turkey
A group of terrorists affiliated to Al Qaida were arrested for planning an attack on inter alia a
synagogue in Istanbul. During a search of the premises, 22 kilos of explosives and analyses of
synagogue security measures were also found.
12
In addition to the above, attacks on targets in inter alia Kano (Nigeria)
13
, Kathmandu (Tibet)
14
, Baku
(Azerbaijan)
15
, Bangkok (Thailand), and Mombasa en Nairobi (Kenya) were prevented
16
. The targets
were Jewish schools, synagogues and Israeli embassies. In addition, a series of coordinated attacks
were foiled in New Delhi (India), Tbilisi (Georgia) and Bangkok (Thailand)
17
.
Furthermore, in 2013, the BLEW operational security department signalled a rise in preparatory
acts in the Netherlands namely, possible reconnaissance activities in the vicinity of schools,
synagogues, social institutions etc. of the Jewish community.
Soft targets
Of the 'classical' terror organisations Hezbollah seems to have been especially active in Europe,
as has emerged from, inter alia, statements made by one of its members arrested in Cyprus.
18

It appears that different security services had until then underestimated the level of activity
maintained by Hezbollah. Various statements confirm that the focus of these activities was on so-
called 'soft' targets of the Jewish community.
The term soft targets is specifically understood to mean those objects or organisations with a (semi-
) public character, where there is little or no visible preventive security such as physical security
measures, or highly visible security staff. The analysis of diverse attacks or preparatory acts prior
to an attack shows that it was without fail the 'weakest links' within a community that would-be
perpetrators automatically earmarked as soft targets. And so, as has been proved in the past, a
combination of the abovementioned elements of security can lead to a change of target or even to
the complete shelving of plans for an attack.
12
New York Times, 11-4-2013: U.S. Embassy in Turkey Said to be Targeted
13
WADR, 4-8-2013:Kano suspect confirms terror cell
14
Haaretz, 23-4-2013: Iranian suspected of planning terror attack on Israeli embassy arrested in Nepal
15
Jerusalem Post, 21-11-2013: Azerbaijan arrests Iranian suspected of planning attack on Israeli embassy in
Baku
16
CST, Annual Review 2013: Terrorism Against Jews 2013
17
CST, Annual Review 2013: Terrorism Against Jews 2013
18
CTC Sentinel West Point, Vol. 6 Issue 4 (April 2013): Hizb Allah Ressurected: The Party of Gods Return to
Tradecraft
12
Threat report July 2014
Incidents January to June 2014
In the first half of 2014 the news headlines were dominated by the attack on the Jewish Museum in
Brussels in May of that year. Four people were shot dead in the first-ever attack in Europe by a Syrian
foreign fighter. The suspect was a 29-year-old Frenchman who, according to the French Intelligence
service, spent the summer of 2013 in Syria, where he underwent training and participated in several
combat operations. On his arrest his weapons (a Kalashnikov assault rifle and a hand gun) were
found wrapped in an ISIS flag.
What is significant is that the attack was not a suicide attack, nor an attack aimed at causing the
greatest number of fatalities. In contrast to the above, the perpetrator had chosen to enter a low-
security museum and to shoot and kill three people 'in the blink of an eye'. A fourth victim died later
as a result of his injuries. The attacker had clearly elected to make a soft target his goal, especially
when bearing in mind that the well-protected Great Synagogue of Brussels is only a short distance
away from the museum. Also, the perpetrator took the trouble to disguise his appearance so as
not to be recognized and actually planned his escape. He had probably arranged a hiding place for
himself or received help from a third party subsequent to the attack. Upon his arrest, the large
supply of ammunition recovered together with his modus operandi suggest that he intended to
commit further attacks. A salient detail, by the way, is that the perpetrator attempted to film his
actions by means of a portable camera device attached to his clothes. The same holds true for the
2012 attack on a likewise unprotected Jewish school in Toulouse
19
, which leads us to believe that the
images were intended for training and propaganda purposes.
With respect to public opinion in Europe, the attack in Brussels was an immediate eye-opener to the
actual threat posed by jihad returnees and their terrorist potential. Again, the fact that a Frenchman,
having spent time in Syria, via various European countries, eventually committed an attack in
Brussels, offers a new perspective on the international threat emanating from jihadists returning to
Europe. Open borders coupled with the impossible task of monitoring each individual, play straight
into the hands of potential terrorists.
Here follows an overview of other incidents in 2014, of which all have in common that a Jewish
community was the target:
France:
- In Paris on 14 June, several weeks after the Brussels attack, an incident took place whereby
a group of youths of North African origin approached a synagogue.
20
They produced a
Kalashnikov assault rifle and a pistol obvious intending to use them. However, the moment
they saw armed police on guard at the synagogue, they simply aimed their weapons at
the police before fleeing the scene on getaway scooters stationed nearby. The assumption
must be that the Brussels attack acted as a possible trigger for other terrorist cells, or as the
inspiration for a so-called copycat attack.
United States:
19
France 24, 3-6-2014: Parallel lives: the Brussels suspect and the Toulouse shooter
20
Israel National News, 15-6-2014: Shooting Attack at Paris Synagogue Thwarted at Last Moment
13
Threat report July 2014
-
An American Vietnam veteran with extreme right-wing ideas shot and killed three people,
whom he suspected of being Jewish, in the vicinity of two Jewish sites in Kansas City on 13
April
21
. On his arrest the perpetrator shouted the anti-Semitic cry Heil Hitler. The man was
known to the police for previous incidents involving racist violence.
Syria
A separate focal point in this chapter is the concern that a new threat will be posed by Syria. In its
annual report for 2013 the AIVD states that there is an increasing number of travellers who are
actively participating in the war in Syria under the flag of various extremist factions. Those factions
include diverse groups affiliated to Al-Qaeda, which not only take part in military action but also
actively engage in committing (suicide) attacks, executions, torture and hostage taking. These foreign
fighters acquire on-the-spot military experience and learn bomb-making techniques.
It has frequently emerged that Dutch citizens travelling to the conflict have already been in contact
in the Netherlands with such groups for (moral, financial and/or religious) support. In 2013 those
groups became more open and vociferous in presenting their religious motivations and anti-Western
stance, the character of which is, in the main, explicitly anti-Zionist and anti-Semitic. The distinction
between anti-Zionism and anti-Semitism is blurring and the two frequently overlap, given that such
groups fail to make a distinction between Jews, the Jewish community and Israel.
In 2013 approximately twenty people in the Netherlands received intensive guidance from diverse
government institutions upon their return from areas of conflict with regard to social reintegration in
a safe environment. Subsequent to an official report issued by the AIVD an investigation was begun
at the end of September 2013 into a returning jihadist traveller. The man intended to commit armed
robberies and use the proceeds to provide financial support to Islamic jihad
22
.
In addition, there is an increasing large group of people in the Netherlands who facilitate these
travellers but who do not themselves participate in the struggle. The facilitators ensure that they
operate within the law and exert a strong influence on radicalized youngsters. Radicalization was
in 2013 a serious concern for different organisations within the government. An added difficulty is,
however, that early on in the process such individuals are trained to blend in and seeing as there is
no departure from the norm, this impedes identification and monitoring of the various stages in the
radicalization process. It is therefore difficult to give a accurate indication of the number of potential
radicals planning (in Syria or the region) to become active combatants.
Since the beginning of 2014 there has been a clear schism between two prominent fundamentalist
terrorist organisations, Jabhat al Nusra (affiliated to Al Qaida) and ISIS (Islamic State in Iraq and al-
Sham). The struggle between the two jihadist factions, the biggest in the region, has meanwhile
far-reaching repercussions into the surrounding area
23
. In June ISIS embarked upon a large-scale
offensive in Iraq, involving many foreign fighters. In the Netherlands there is increasing public
21
New York Times, 14-4-2014: Bullets, Blood and then Cry Heil Hitler
22
Openbaar Ministerie, 21-5-2014: Teruggekeerde Syriganger aangehouden wegens voorbereiden overval
23
New York Times, 7-7-2014: The Iraq-ISIS Conflict in Maps, Photos and Videos
14
Threat report July 2014
support in particular via social media, a factor which may contribute to the flow of Dutch men and
women into Syria (and Iraq).
Experts opine that the pronouncement of a Caliphate (Islamic state) at the end of June 2014 and the
change of name from ISIS to IS (Islamic State, but without any geographical boundaries) could lead
to an intensification of the underlying conflict between Jabhat al Nusra and IS. In addition it must be
borne in mind that said organizations may well commit terrorist attacks in order to make their mark
on Europe.
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Threat report July 2014
4. Anti-Semitism
BLEW classifies an act as an anti-Semitic incident when it is an intentional attack on Jews, Jewish
organizations or property, and when the underlying motivation can be shown to be based on race
or religion. A general definition of anti-Semitism given by the Encyclopaedia Britannica is 'hostility or
discrimination against the Jews as a religious or racial group'.
Furthermore, when processing data, BLEW makes a clear distinction between anti-Semitic incidents
and expressions (of hate) against the State of Israel. This report concentrates on incidents as well
as (verbal and visual) expressions against the Jewish community. The statistics compiled by CIDI,
CST and SPCJ show that during any conflict in the Middle East involving Israel, the number of anti-
Semitic incidents rises worldwide. In the majority of cases, the perpetrators consider Jews to be
representatives of the State of Israel.
In light of the above, mention must be made of the (international) BDS movement. The acronym
BDS stands for Boycot, Divestment and Sanction. The movement aims at influencing Dutch politics
with respect to Israel, and Israeli politics itself with regard to its standpoints on the Israeli-Palestinian
conflict. This is done mainly by organizing events, picketing, and disrupting events arranged by the
Jewish community. The movement is a good example of how the Jewish community is being held
responsible for the (political) policies of the State of Israel.
In 2013 saw the emergence of a new trend in anti-Semitism, the performance of the quenelle
24
, a
variant of the Nazi salute, thought up by the French comedian, Dieudonn Mbala Mbala. Starting
in France, but in the meantime having spread to an increasing number of European countries, the
trend is for youngsters to be photographed in front of Jewish monuments, institutions and museums
while performing this anti-Semitic gesture. Dieudonn was, by the way, prosecuted for inciting anti-
Semitism and several of his performances were banned on account of their anti-Semitic nature.
25

24
Wikipedia: Quenelle (gesture)
25
France 24, 21-1-2014: Anti-Semitic comic backs down, to unveil new routine
16
Threat report July 2014
Bron: Frontpagemag.com
The Netherlands statistics on anti-Semitic incidents
The number of anti-Semitic incidents against vulnerable Dutch Jews is on the
increase
In order to identify (and list) the number of anti-Semitic incidents in the
Netherlands, BLEW used data from the Centre for Information and
Documentation Israel (CIDI); for incidents in England, data from the
Community Security Trust (CST) and for France, data from the Service de
Protection de la Communaut Juive (SPCJ). There are no known official
statistics for Belgium, Germany and Scandinavia.
Several studies have shown a lack of reporting hate-motivated incidents. In
2013, in collaboration with CIDI, BLEW embarked on the project Meld Antisemitisme! (Report
Anti-Semitism) to encourage the registration of as many anti-Semitic incidents as possible and
to combat so-called 'reporting fatigue'.
Lelystad, 25 April 2013 (source: CIDI) The Hague, August 2013 (source: CIDI)
The table and graph below show that, compared with 2012, the number of incidents registered
in the Netherlands increased in 2013 by 28.9%. If we compare this to the number in England and
France in 2013, it emerges that the number of anti-Semitic incidents registered in those countries
actually decreased. In contrast to England and France, the situation in the Netherlands gives cause
for concern. It also appears that, in comparison, the statistical probability of a Jewish person in the
Netherlands becoming the victim of an anti-Semitic incident (hit rate) is significantly higher.
The above demonstrates the vulnerability of the Dutch Jewish community.
Population Number
of Jews
%
population
Average
Number
incidents
(2009-
2013)
Hit rate
% per
Jew
(2009-
2013)
Change in the
number of
incidents 2013
c.f. 2012
Netherlands 17 mln 45,000 0.27% 133 0.30 +28,9%
England 60 mln 300,000 0.50% 673 0.22 -18.5%
France 65 mln 490,000 0.75% 545 0.11 -31.1%
Source: CIDI , CST, SPCJ
17
Threat report July 2014
Source: CIDI, CST, SPCJ
Anti-Semitism on the Internet 2013
Anti-Semitism is by far the most prevalent form of discrimination on the Internet
Anti-Semitism on the Internet has been monitored and analysed since the establishment of the
Discrimination on the Internet Reporting Centre (MDI) in 1997.
The top three areas of discrimination on the Internet are as follows: the first place goes to
anti-Semitism with 35% of all discriminatory incidents reported to the MDI; the second to the
discrimination of Muslims and the third place, to so-called anti-black racism. In absolute numbers
the MDI received 809 reports pertaining to 924 separate expressions of discrimination in 2013, a
total of 324 of which were anti-Semitic in nature.
2011 2012 2013
Anti-Semitism on the Internet Total Punishable Total Punishable Total Punishable
Anti-Semitism 252 165 285 177 250 175
Of which Holocaust denial 74 122 196 93 74 61
Source: MDI
As in previous years it must be concluded that the strong presence of anti-Semitism on the Internet is
disproportionately high in comparison with the small number of Jews in the Netherlands. The Jewish
community comprises a tiny proportion (0.27%) of the population, and yet anti-Semitism on the
Internet totals approximately 35%. The ratio of expressions of anti-Semitism is therefore 35/0.27 =
129.6%.
18
2011 2012 2013
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
113
609
389
114
649
614
147
529
423
Nederland
Engeland
Frankrijk
Threat report July 2014
Expressions of anti-Semitic expression on the Internet
Source: CIDI
On 17 January retweeted Prachtland 'C' @ Huseyin040 [nazi symbol] Not a bad sign, Jews bring death and disaster Hitler
was right[nazi symbol]
On 18 January 'IG:Zackaria026 @Zackaria026 What would you change in this World? Kill Jews and israelis http://ask.fm/a/
23ah370 '
On 9 March: 'Merk @mert_ks40 Hitler said before he died: 'One day you will say I was right to murder Jews.. 'And he's right'

Source: CIDI
26 August
Person reporting the incident received an 89 page document entitled "Jews are no gods'. The document is full of anti-
Semitic language and denials of the Holocaust. It says among other things: 'Hollywood of today in mostly in the hands of the
Jews'; 'Israel's interests and God's interests run parallel. Logical consequence of this is that God's dominion over the world
is the same as the domination of the Jews over the world (...) World domination is in the hands of the Jews, not foreigners.
The person reporting has filed a police report citing the expressions in this document. The police are taking the report
seriously.
Damage and Desecration
Decrease in the number of reported physical incidents in connection with (Jewish) property
Physical attacks aimed at (suspected) Jewish property can take several different forms: the use
of anti-Semitic slogans or symbols, the daubing of synagogues or, for instance, the smashing of
windows of Jewish homes and so on.
The following graph shows a decline last year in the number of incidents recorded in the countries
illustrated.
19
Threat report July 2014
Source: CIDI, CST, SPCJ
Only French statistics are available for 2014. They show an increase of 60% in the number of
registered incidents in the first quarter of 2014, amounting to 85 compared with 53 in the first
quarter of 2013.
Physical violence
The level of physical violence towards the Jewish community in the Netherlands remains stable
In this paragraph an assessment is made of physically violent incidents against the Jewish
community. A comparison is made between the situation in the Netherlands in 2013 and that in
England and France. Examination of the period 2011 to 2013 shows a historical trend.
In the Netherlands the level of physical violence has remained virtually unchanged. What holds true
for the previous chapter is probably applicable here: the actual number of incidents may be higher
than the number reported. Also, it cannot be said with certainty whether every case of physical
violence reported to the hotline or to the police was related to anti-Semitism.
At the time of writing the number of incidents in England was declining; in France, on the other hand,
we see a steep increase. Compared to 2012, the number of incidents rose by 96%, which has greatly
contributed to the large number of French Jews that have either emigrated or seriously consider
doing so.
20
2011 2012 2013
0
50
100
150
200
250
22
64
172
14
53
245
10
49
174
Nederland
Engeland
Frankrijk
Threat report July 2014
Source: CIDI, CST, SPCJ
In France the number of physically violent incidents rose by 40% in the first quarter of 2014
compared to the first quarter of 2013: a total of 15 incidents was registered in 2013, whereas in 2014
the number was 21. In addition, it should be said here that the level of violence used was higher in
the anti-Semitic incidents, as evidenced by the incidents mentioned below. Not all the incidents have
as yet been incorporated in the statistics, the reason being that they occurred in the second quarter
of 2014.
Included are the following: an aggravated assault on a Jewish teacher
26
, various attacks on
(recognisable) Jewish youngsters including, inter alia, the use of a stun gun
27
, knuckle dusters
28
, an
axe
29
, tear gas
30
, and knives
31
. The trend towards increasingly violent incidents is a development
that is a grave cause for concern in view of the position occupied by physical violence in the threat
pyramid (see figure 1).
26
The Algemeiner, 27-3-2014: Victim Breaks Down in Footage From Aftermath of Brutal Anti-Semitic Attack in
France
27
Tablet, 11-6-2014: Jewish Teen Wearing Yarmulke Tasered in Paris
28
Associates Press, 25-5-2014: 2 Jewish Youth Attacked near Paris-Area Synagogue
29
Forward, 8-6-2014: Jewish Teens Escape Axe Attack Near Paris
30
Jerusalem Post, 10-6-2014: Two Jews attacked with tear gas near Paris
31
Israel National News, 24-6-2014: Anti-Semitic Assault and Stabbing in Paris Library
21
2011 2012 2013
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1
2
57
4
2
49
3
0
96
Nederland
Engeland
Frankrijk
Threat report July 2014
Attack on a Jewish teacher in Paris: the attackers drew
a swastika on his chest
(source: The Algemeiner)
22
Threat report July 2014
5. Politics
The political climate in the Netherlands and Europe has changed drastically during the past decades
to the detriment of Israel. Both in politics and in public debate open displays of anti-Israel sentiment
are becoming increasingly the norm and regarded even as being politically correct. The line between
disguised - and sometimes even explicit anti-Semitism and anti-Israelism is becoming more and
more blurred. Calling into question Israel's right to exist or showing support for Hamas, are in our
opinion, forms of anti-Semitism. That was the reason why Norman Finkelstein, a rabid Israel critic,
turned against the BDS movement that he had supported for years
32
. In a climate where anti-
Semitism is becoming more and more acceptable, it stands to reason that terrorism is most likely to
be directed against the Jewish community.
The Netherlands
Various political parties in the Lower House of the Dutch Parliament have recently been voicing their
opposition to several mainstays of the Jewish way of life: male circumcision, ritual slaughter and
Jewish schools. The overall trend is to ban all forms of religious expression from Dutch society, which
impacts greatly on the Jewish community: Dutch society is marginalising its Jews.
An increase in anti-Israel sentiment in recent years has likewise been observed, evidenced by such
matters as the labelling of products from Jewish settlements and the civil initiative 'Pull down the
Wall' . At the same time, however, the reception of Israeli president, Shimon Peres in October
2013 was a corroboration of the good political relationship with Israel as was the visit to Israel by a
delegation of the Dutch government in December 2013.
Europe
The level of anti-Semitism varies greatly within individual European member states, and is a
reflection of the sense of vulnerability experienced by Jewish civilians
33
. In several countries anti-
Semitism enjoys the support of extreme right-wing political parties. A study by the European Jewish
Congress and the Kantor Centre for Studies on Present-day European Judaism at the University of Tel
Aviv reports a direct link between the increasing popularity of those parties and the rising number
of anti-Semitic incidents
34
. Examples of such political movements are the Greek Golden Dawn, the
Ukrainian Svoboda and the Hungarian Jobbik. The last-mentioned parties and their affiliates do
not shy away from using anti-Semitic slogans, anti-Semitic symbols and the employment of force.
Moreover, those parties have booked significant electoral gains in recent years.
The presence of anti-Semitism in the European Parliament is less obvious. It is usually cloaked in
the guise of anti-Israel rhetoric, for the simple reason that anti-Semitic sentiments, more often than
32
Official Website of Norman G. Finkelstein, 14-2-2014: Beyond the Mass BDS Psychosis
33
European Union Agency for Fundamental Rights, November 2013: Discrimination and hate crime against
Jews in EU Member States: experiences and perceptions of antisemitism;
Anti-Defamation League, May 2014: The ADL Global 100: An Index of Anti-Semitism
34
NOS, 7-4-2013: Stijging antisemitische incidenten [Rise in anti-Semitic Incidents]
23
Threat report July 2014
not, go hand in hand with anti-Israel rhetoric
35
. Not only that, the European Parliament stopped
publishing figures in 2011, at which time it was common knowledge that subsidies from the EP for
the advancement of democracy and human rights in the Middle East (EIDHR) were made available to
NGOs that had falsely accused Israel of torture, ethnic cleansing, genocide and apartheid. Strangely
enough, no such subsidies were given to NGOs that held countries such as Syria, Iraq and Iran under
close scrutiny
36
. Likewise, it is common knowledge that the Palestinian Authority receives substantial
subsidies from the EU which it uses to reward acts of terror in an indirect way.
35
Manfred Gerstenfeld, 2010: Het Verval
36
CIDI, 24-2-2014: EU Parlementarir: Stop financiering anti-Isral lobby [EU Members of Parliament - Stop
financing the anti-Israel lobby]
NGO Monitor, 17-2-2014: Evaluating funding for political advocacy NGOs in the Arab-Israeli conflict: the
European instrument for democracy and human rights (EIDHR)
24
Threat report July 2014
6. Conclusion
On the basis of the qualitative and quantitative analysis that we have conducted relevant to the
present situation in the Netherlands, we conclude that the threat level to the Jewish community
in the Netherlands, scoring 76.5/100 on the BLEW index, is critical. It is inter alia due to the high
probability of a potential terrorist attack posed by the large number of active Dutch and European
combatants and supporters of the various jihadist warring factions. In addition to four fatal attacks
against Jewish targets, the operational security department reports a rise in preparatory acts. BLEW
identifies the Netherlands as a highly fertile breeding grounds for anti-Semitism which is further
reinforced by political acceptance of the blurred line between anti-Zionism and anti-Semitism. Lastly,
the threat level in the Netherlands [in general] stands since March 2013 at 'substantial' , the second-
highest level on the NCTV scale.
BLEW therefore urgently appeals to the Dutch government to prevent the Jewish community from
becoming the weakest link and thus the softest target of all the Jewish communities in Europe. That
is why in the short term an increased level of security with regard to the Jewish community, Jewish
authorities and (religious) institutions is necessary to withstand the critical level at which the current
threat stands. In the long term it is essential that national governments within Europe take concerted
action to counter terrorism.
25
Threat report July 2014
The Threat Report July 2014 Terrorism as a threat to the Jewish community in the Netherlands' is a
publication of the Bij Leven en Welzijn Foundation (BLEW).
BLEW is the advisory body for Jewish security in the Netherlands.
Stichting Bij Leven en Welzijn
Postbus 7967
1008 AD Amsterdam
W: www.blew.org
E: info@blew.org
T: 020 - 404 1749
26