Gavin Strachan CMD06

The Offshore Markets
2006-2012
Helsinki 16 June 2006
by Gavin Strachan and the ODS-Petrodata forecasting team
ODS-Petrodata
provides news, data and market
intelligence on the infrastructure of
the worldwide offshore oil and gas
industry
has industry know-how and data
going back over 30 years
ODS-Petrodata
80 employees worldwide
Dedicated forecasting team
main offices in
Oslo
Aberdeen
Houston
Singapore
Main areas of research/reporting
Production (platforms, FPSOs,
diving, pipelines etc)
Boats (PSVs AHTS)
Offshore rigs
Gavin Strachan brief biography
2003 - date Principal, ODS-Petrodata
2002 - 03 VP Consultancy and Research, ODS-Petrodata
1996 - 02 Founding Director, Bassoe Offshore Consultants
1993 - 95 Founding Editor Financial Times World Rig Forecast etc
1985 - 92 Worldwide Marketing & Contracts Manager, Atlantic Drilling
1981 - 84 Shorebase Manager, Atlantic Drilling, Aberdeen
1971 - 74 Corpus Christi College, Cambridge, MA Hons
2002 Lehman Brothers award The smartest person in the offshore
industry
The fundamentals
The basics: economy and offshore activity
The state of the world economy (growth 2005: 4.8%)
leads to demand for energy especially oil and gas
which, assuming the oil price remains firm, leads to
oil company profits
which pay for exploration & development
which produces demand for offshore units
which produces dayrates for contractors
which, depending on their level, directly relates to
values of offshore units
Copyright 2006 ODS-Petrodata
Demand for oil is now increasing by
nearly 2 million barrels a year
World Petroleum Demand
27.9 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.8 28.9
19.8
20.4
21.1 21.1 21.4 21.9
16.9
17.6
18.3 18.8
19.3
19.8
13.0
13.4
14.7
15.3
15.8
16.5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
M
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B
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s

p
e
r

d
a
y
Non-OECD Asia*
Other Non-OECD
USA
Other OECD
77.6
79.7
Source: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook
(Totals may not add due to rounding)
82.5
83.7
*excludes countries of FSU
85.3 87.2
The oil price environment has changed
OPEC Basket Prices
January 2001 - March 2006
14
18
22
26
30
34
38
42
46
50
54
58
62
J
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1
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5
A
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5
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5
O
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5
J
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6
U
S
D

p
e
r

B
a
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r
e
l
Sources: EIA, OPEC, OPECNA, IRNA
Old OPEC Target Band
but more important is the lack of
worldwide oil production capacity on line
1.3% 2006/7 forecast
Excess production capacity
1.2 % 2005
5% 2003
5% 1997
8% 1995
10% 1989
25% 1983
9% 1979
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
G
b
B
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l
i
o
n

b
a
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r
e
l
s
US EIA:
120 million
barrels per
day by 2025
up from 80
in 2004
Past Discovery Production
Global discovery and production
Source: ASPO
and offshore is where to find oil
0
10
20
30
40
50
1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
P
r
o
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
,

G
b
o
e
/
a
Non-con Gas
Gas
NGLs
Polar Oil
Deep Water
Heavy
Regular
Source: ASPO
Future oil and gas production: all sources
Over the last 20 years national oil companies
replaced the Majors as main customers
Active Offshore Rigs Working for Majors
(and their predecessors)
46%
32%
24%
23%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1983 1993 2003 2005
N
u
m
b
e
r

o
f

R
i
g
s
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
P
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n
t
a
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o
f

T
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A
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R
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Data to mid-May 2005 deliberately
but that dynamic is changing again
19 +6 BP
35 - 4 Pemex 23 +7 Chevron
15 - 3 ExxonMobil 35 +7 Petrobras
29 +1 ONGC 23 +8 Shell
18 +3 Total 18 +10 Saudi Aramco
Offshore rigs contracted by biggest users
May 2006 compared with May 2005
Rig utilisation
50% utilisation bankruptcy level high (1992)
_______________________________________________
70% utilisation is a poor market for contractors
85% utilisation is still a poor market
_______________________________________________
90% utilisation dayrates increase dramatically
95% utilisation market is very firm
_______________________________________________
100% utilisation does not exist as rigs are moving or
going into the yard or preparing for a contract
Forecasts to 2012 -
empirical evidence
and modelled forecasts
2006/7 forecast -
empirical evidence
Worldwide *floater demand 2004-2007
in rig years (includes deepwater)
204
43
38
35
30
53
2007
183 159 140 World
39 31 28 North America
36 37 37 South America
30 25 17 Asia / Australia
24 21 18 West Africa
48 41 30 NW Europe / Med
2006 2005 2004
* floaters = semis and drillships.
World total includes areas other than those shown. All figures are rounded.
Floater demand and supply 2004-2007
(average for each year)
- 2 Total surplus
202
204
2007
4 20 29 Marketed surplus
187 177 169 Marketed supply
202 197 198 Total supply
183 159 140 Demand
2006 2005 2004
Jackup demand and supply 2004-2007
(average for each year)
405
409
2007
0 23 40 Marketed surplus
373 358 357 Marketed supply
390 385 386 Total supply
373 335 317 Demand
2006 2005 2004
- 4 Total surplus
2007/12 demand
Modelled evidence
North West Europe Floater Demand
Trend demand scenarios, 1994 - 2012
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1Q94 1Q95 1Q96 1Q97 1Q98 1Q99 1Q00 1Q01 1Q02 1Q03 1Q04 1Q05 1Q06 1Q07 1Q08 1Q09 1Q10 1Q11 1Q12
R
i
g
s
High-Case Low-Case Mid-Case
West Africa Floater Demand
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
R
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g
s
High-Case Low-Case Mid-Case
Worldwide Floater Demand
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
R
i
g
s
Effective Supply Total Supply High-Case
Low-Case Mid-Case

Deepwater Rig Demand by Well Water Depth
Central Case
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1Q97 1Q98 1Q99 1Q00 1Q01 1Q02 1Q03 1Q04 1Q05 1Q06 1Q07 1Q08 1Q09 1Q10 1Q11 1Q12
R
i
g
s
7501'+
5001-7500'
4001-5000'
3001-4000'
Midwater
Gross Supply
Effective Supply
Worldwide Jackup Demand
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
R
i
g
s
Effective Supply Total Supply High-Case
Low-Case Mid-Case
Current rig newbuildings
Newbuildings on order as at mid-May
50% 2 Tenders
87% 8 Drillships
78% 23 Semis
90% 60 Jackups
Percentage that
are speculative
Number on
order
Rig type
Delivery of jackups and floating rigs
2 1 4 6 6 2 3 4 2 1 Floaters
3 3 7 2 9 7 7 4 6 4 2 2 5 2 Jackups
1 4 3 2 1 4 3 2 1 4 3 2 1 4 3 2 1
2010 2009 2008 2007 2006
But in the context of todays fleet size
perhaps this is not such a big deal
Newbuilds as % of Existing Fleet
April 2006
15.9%
12.9%
13.2%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18%
Jackups
Semis
Drillships
And from a historical perspective it is not
overly dramatic for semis
Semisubmersible Orders
1948-2006
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004
Year Ordered
N
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b
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o
f

R
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s
Undelivered
Delivered
Who is ordering the newbuilds?
17 1 6 6 Floaters
36 6 10 10 Jackups
New
companies
National
Oil
cos
* Other
established
contractors
US quoted
contractors
Type of organisation ordering the rigs
* Been constantly active in offshore for over three years
The average rig is more than 20 years old
Average Ages of Offshore Rig Types
April 2006
24 24
23
22
19
18 18
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Jackups (390) Submersibles
(7)
Arctic (3) Semis (163) Tenders (25) Barges (46) Drillships (38)
Y
e
a
r
s
Weighted Average = 23 years
FPSOs
Worldwide FPS Fleet
TLP-18
Spar-14
Semi-36
Other-5
FSO-85
FPSO-108
FPSs On Order
TLP-3
Spar-2
Semi-6
FSO-9
FPSO-30
FPSOs on order: 12 for operators, 18 for contractors
FPS Name Owner Operator Field Scheduled Delivery
Folk Moon Bergesen Pemex Ku-Maloob-Zaap Apr-07
Aoka Mizu Bluewater Nexen Ettrick Mar-08
Greater Plutonio FPSO BP BP Plutonio Mar-07
P-53 CDC Petrobras Marlim East Jan-08
Agbami FPSO Chevron Chevron Agbami Jan-08
Frade FPSO Chevron Chevron Frade May-08
Wenchang II FPSO CNOOC CNOOC Wenchang Dec-07
Xijiang 23-2 FPSO CNOOC CNOOC Xijiang 23-1 Dec-07
Peng Lai 19/3 FPSO 2 ConocoPhillips ConocoPhillips Peng Lai 19/3 Mar-08
Knock Adoon Fred Olsen Addax OPL 98 Jun-06
Front Puffin Frontline FPSO AED Oil Puffin Dec-06
Alvheim FPSO Marathon Marathon Alvheim Mar-07
Stybarrow Modec BHP Stybarrow Feb-08
Espadarte Sul FPSO Modec Petrobras Espadarte South Dec-06
P-54 Petrobras Petrobras Roncador Dec-07
Tui Prosafe NZOP Tui May-07
Polvo FPSO Prosafe Devon Energy Corporation Polvo Jul-07
Cidade de Vitoria Saipem Petrobras Golfinho Jul-07
Kikeh FPSO SBM Murphy Kikeh Jul-07
Kizomba C I SBM ExxonMobil Kizomba Dec-07
Kizomba C II SBM ExxonMobil Kizomba May-08
SSP 300 Sevan Marine Jun-07
SSP Chestnut Sevan Marine Venture Chestnut Jul-07
SSP Piranema Sevan Marine Petrobras Piranema Jul-06
Maari Tanker Pacific OMV Maari Mar-08
Moho/Bilondo Total Total Moho/Bilondo Feb-08
Dalia Total Total Dalia Aug-06
Akpo FPSO Total Total Akpo Dec-08
Nganhurra Woodside Woodside Enfield Jul-06
Brotojoyo PetroChina TBA/TBC Sep-06
F
P
S
O
s

b
y

R
e
g
i
o
n
0
1
0
2
0
3
0
4
0
Australia/New
Zealand
Canada
Indian Ocean
Med/Black
Sea
Mexico
Middle East
NW Europe
South
America
SE Asia/Far
East
West Africa
A
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e

F
l
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t
U
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r

C
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.
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r
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t

2
0
0
6

O
D
S
-
P
e
t
r
o
d
a
t
a
Contractor Owned FPSOs
0
5
10
15
20
B
e
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g
e
s
e
n
B
l
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w
a
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r
F
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M
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k
M
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P
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S
P
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S
B
M
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v
a
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M
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O
t
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s
Active Fleet Under Const.
O
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s
t
a
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d
i
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g

F
P
S
O

R
e
q
u
i
r
e
m
e
n
t
s
05
1
0
1
5
2
0
2
5
Australia/New
Zealand
Canada
Med/Black
Sea
Middle East
NW Europe
South
America
SE Asia/Far
East
U.S. Gulf
West Africa
T
e
n
d
e
r
i
n
g
P
l
a
n
n
e
d
P
o
s
s
i
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C
o
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r
i
g
h
t

2
0
0
6

O
D
S
-
P
e
t
r
o
d
a
t
a
FPSO Deployments
2000-2008
0
5
10
15
20
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
V
e
s
s
e
l

D
e
p
l
o
y
m
e
n
t
s
Deployed Under Construction Redeployment
Tendering/Planned Possible
But 15-20 new contracts a year until 2008
Current contracts with 3 years extension on 50% of contracts slated to expire
All planned developments with FPSOs
All possible developments where FPSOs identified as preferred solution
Excludes discoveries where FPSOs are only a possible solution
FPSO Demand - $60/bbl Oil Scenario
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
F
P
S
O

D
e
m
a
n
d
Boats
AHTS and PSVs
Supply vessels firm trend to larger vessels
The supply vessel market currently buoyant - high
utilisation and high day rates
Main drivers for supply vessel demand are
production support will remain relatively stable for next
few years
construction support high in 2005 and should remain so
in 2006, 2007 and even increase in 2008
drilling support as almost all marketed rigs working any
increase is limited until newbuilds delivered
Vessel size increasing but so is supply
Demand for larger vessels increases in the next 3
years as drilling moves deeper
Supply even greater increase - current fleet (excluding
harbour tugs, crew boats, utility boats etc) just over 2,000 vessels
Operators demanding newer, safer, higher spec
vessels
So most owners building - over 350 under
construction
Global newbuild deliveries
(AHTS >14,999 bhp & PSV >2,999 dwt)
1995-2005
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
N
u
m
b
e
r

o
f

v
e
s
s
e
l
s
AHTS >14,999 bhp
PSV >2,999 dwt
Delivery schedule (from 68 owners)
364 152 212 Total
13 1 12 2010
23 6 17 2009
0
26
60
59
PSV Total AHTS
137 78 2006*
134 74 2007
55 29 2008
2 2 2011
*39 vessels already delivered in 2006
Large vessel growth.
AHTS >14,999 bhp PSV > 2,999 dwt
Current Fleet 102 266
Newbuilds on order 33 119
Growth 32% 45%
Global supply vessel fleet age
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0 to 5 years old 6 to 10 years old 11 to 15 years old 16 to 20 years old 21 to 25 years old 26 to 30 years old > 30 years old
N
u
m
b
e
r

o
f

v
e
s
s
e
l
s
Attrition?
The average vessel life is around 30 years
Much of existing fleet was built 1974 1984:
nearing retirement
When day rates are high - attrition is limited:
older vessels generate profit as they are debt free
Will owners scrap old vessels before the market
turns down?
Owners talk of fleet replacement, but the new
vessels are not comparable to the older vessels
which are smaller and lower specification
Global supply vessel fleet by year in service
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1
9
6
5
1
9
6
7
1
9
6
9
1
9
7
1
1
9
7
3
1
9
7
5
1
9
7
7
1
9
7
9
1
9
8
1
1
9
8
3
1
9
8
5
1
9
8
7
1
9
8
9
1
9
9
1
1
9
9
3
1
9
9
5
1
9
9
7
1
9
9
9
2
0
0
1
2
0
0
3
2
0
0
5
2
0
0
7
2
0
0
9
2
0
1
1
N
u
m
b
e
r

o
f

v
e
s
s
e
l
s
Under construction
Existing vessels
Protected by Copyright 2006 ODS-Petrodata Ltd
Boats - conclusions
Supply vessel market tight most of 2006 - high day rates
364 vessels already on order from 68 owners
Substantial deliveries of newbuilds in 2006 and 2007
PSVs 12 to 18 months to deliver; AHTS 18 to 24 months
Limited yard capacity is resulting in much longer lead times for
vessels
Market expected to weaken from early 2007 - day rates will
drop
A sustained downturn will cause owners to remove older
vessels from service
The cycle continues.
Summary of extra newbuilds required
about 20+ Now - 2010 FPSOs
20 Now - 2007 jackups
30+ Now - 2013 Rigs - floaters
Number
required
When ordered Unit type
ODS-Petrodata FPSOs and boats
Research for FPSOs comes from the on-line service:
FPSbase updated daily
We also have an on-line boats database:
MarineBase updated daily
Confidential, specific consultancy is a major part of our business.
ODS-Petrodata - rigs
Research for this presentation for the rigs comes from the following
published market reports:
Short Term Trends monthly
Long Term Trends half-yearly - and just published
Deepwater Report half-yearly
and
RigPoint on-line - updated daily

Gavin Strachan CMD06

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