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Boys are more likely to respond initially, more likely to relapse and to be classified as having frequently relapsing nephrotic syndrome. Boys relapsed significantly more frequently than girls (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.77, 95 % CI 1.11-2.83)
Boys are more likely to respond initially, more likely to relapse and to be classified as having frequently relapsing nephrotic syndrome. Boys relapsed significantly more frequently than girls (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.77, 95 % CI 1.11-2.83)
Boys are more likely to respond initially, more likely to relapse and to be classified as having frequently relapsing nephrotic syndrome. Boys relapsed significantly more frequently than girls (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.77, 95 % CI 1.11-2.83)
Predictors of remission and relapse in idiopathic nephrotic
syndrome: a prospective cohort study Premala Sureshkumar & Elisabeth M. Hodson & Narelle S. Willis & Federica Barzi & Jonathan C. Craig Received: 16 October 2013 / Revised: 11 December 2013 / Accepted: 16 December 2013 #IPNA 2014 Abstract Background Although most children with idiopathic nephrot- ic syndrome will respond to corticosteroid therapy, 8090 % suffer one or more relapses. Methods Using Cox proportional hazard models, we analyzed predictors of remission and relapse in 1-year follow-up data on children aged below 15 years with new-onset nephrotic syndrome. Results Of 129 children, 107 achieved remission with corti- costeroid therapy and 86 subsequently relapsed. Boys achieved remission more often than girls (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR] 1.52, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.022.3). Boys relapsed significantly more frequently than girls (AHR 1.77, 95 % CI 1.112.83) and were more likely to have frequently relapsing disease (AHR 3.3, 95 % CI 1.189.23). The risk of first relapse increased with the number of days to first remission (AHR 1.02, 95 % CI 1.011.04). The risk for a frequently relapsing course increased with a shorter time from remission to first relapse (AHR 0.92, 95 % CI 0.870.97). Conclusions In idiopathic nephrotic syndrome, boys are more likely to respond initially, more likely to relapse, and to be classified as having frequently relapsing nephrotic syndrome. Adecrease in time fromremission to first relapse predicts for a frequently relapsing course. Keywords Childhood nephrotic syndrome . Cohort study . Remission . Relapse Introduction Idiopathic nephrotic syndrome in children is characterized by proteinuria, hypoalbuminaemia and edema with normal renal function, and no evidence of secondary causes of nephrotic syndrome. The incidence of idiopathic nephrotic syndrome is reported to be 27 cases per 100,000 children aged below 16 years, with a prevalence of 16 cases per 100,000 [1]. Most children have steroid-sensitive nephrotic syndrome (SSNS) and achieve remission with daily corticosteroid ther- apy [2]. Although the long-term prognosis of SSNS is be- lieved to be good with the condition resolving in adolescence or early adult life in most children, 8090 % of children experience one or more relapses [2, 3]. Of those who relapse, 50 % of children relapse frequently or become steroid depen- dent and may suffer a number of adverse effects related to the disease and its treatment [3]. Most studies to date have assessed the predictors for remis- sion, relapse, and frequency of relapse from retrospective analyses of cohorts of children with idiopathic nephrotic syn- drome from selected populations managed by tertiary referral services [4, 5]. In this prospective national cohort study of children presenting with their first episode of idiopathic ne- phrotic syndrome, we aimed to describe the predictors for initial remission and for relapse, to inform patients, families, and clinicians about the likely clinical course of the disease P. Sureshkumar : E. M. Hodson (*) : N. S. Willis : J. C. Craig Centre for Kidney Research, The Childrens Hospital at Westmead, Locked Bag 4001, Westmead, Sydney NSW 2145, Australia e-mail: elisabeth.hodson@health.nsw.gov.au P. Sureshkumar Department of Psychology, Macquarie University, Sydney, Australia E. M. Hodson : N. S. Willis : J. C. Craig Sydney School of Public Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia F. Barzi The George Institute for Global Health, Sydney, Australia Pediatr Nephrol DOI 10.1007/s00467-013-2736-9 including the need for frequent courses of corticosteroids and for corticosteroid sparing agents. Materials and methods Recruitment methods and study population The study protocol was based on the Declaration of Helsinki and was approved by The Royal Alexandra Hospital for Children Ethics Committee. The study population included all Australian children aged below15 years who were reported to the Australian Paediatric Surveillance Unit with newly diagnosed idiopathic nephrotic syndrome between July 1998 and June 2001. The Australian Paediatric Surveillance Unit (APSU) is an active national surveillance mechanism for identifying uncommon diseases of childhood and for short- term follow-up. The APSU sends monthly reminders to over 1,000 pediatricians. Reminders list selected uncommon dis- eases of childhood and request clinicians to notify any child diagnosed with one of the listed conditions in the previous month. Idiopathic nephrotic syndrome was listed for monthly report for 3 years from July 1998 to June 2001. Notifications were forwarded by the APSU to the investigators, who then sent a baseline questionnaire to the reporting clinician requesting further details of children. A follow-up question- naire was sent to the reporting clinicians 12 months from the date of diagnosis of nephrotic syndrome to ascertain details of remission and relapse. Definitions Idiopathic nephrotic syndrome was defined as a child aged more than 3 months and less than 15 years with edema, proteinuria (urine protein/creatinine ratio 200 mg/mmol or proteinuria 3+ on dipstick), hypoalbuminemia (serum albu- min <25 g/l), and normal kidney function (creatinine in the normal range for age after initial stabilization). Remission, relapse, infrequent relapse, frequent relapse, and steroid de- pendence were defined according to the definitions of the International Study of Kidney Disease in Children [6] and the Arbeitsgemeinschaft fr Pdiatrische Nephrologie [7, 8]. Children were considered to have SSNS if they achieved remission (urine protein/creatinine ratio <20 mg/mmol or proteinuria <1+ on dipstick for 3 or more consecutive days) during the initial 4 weeks of prednisone therapy. Relapse was defined as the reappearance of proteinuria (urine protein/ creatinine ratio 200 mg/mmol or proteinuria 3+ on dipstick) for three consecutive days or more. Frequent relapsing ne- phrotic syndrome was diagnosed if the child had two or more relapses within 6 months of the initial response or four or more relapses within any 12-month period. Steroid-dependent ne- phrotic syndrome was defined as two consecutive relapses during steroid therapy or within 14 days of its cessation. Time to remission was measured as the time from commence- ment of corticosteroid therapy until first remission. Time from remission to first relapse was measured as the time from first remission until first relapse. Because children with nephrotic syndrome potentially have a concurrent risk factor for adverse cardiovascular outcomes [9], children with diastolic and/or systolic blood pressure greater than the 90th centile for age and sex were considered to have hypertension [10]. Data collection The baseline questionnaire recorded information on child fac- tors (age at onset, gender, date of diagnosis), geographic loca- tion (postcode), ethnicity, language spoken at home, and clin- ical characteristics (blood pressure, hematuria, creatinine). The follow-up questionnaire recorded information on regimens of corticosteroid therapy, whether remission occurred, time to remission, time to first relapse and the number of relapses. Clinicians were also asked to classify children as having infre- quent relapses, frequent relapses, or as being steroid dependent according to the definitions above. For children who failed to achieve remission, the results of renal biopsies were requested. Information on socio-economic status was collected using the Australian Bureau of Statistics Socio-Economic Indexes for Areas 2001 (SEIFA) [11] for each participant based on their postcode. This is a continuous score that summarizes income, level of education, employment, and occupation. It has been standardized to a mean of 1,000 and a standard deviation of 100 across all collection districts in Australia so that 95 % of scores are between 800 and 1,200. Lower scores indicate relatively greater disadvantage and higher scores indicate least disadvantage. Ethnicity was classified using the major ethnic groupings defined by the Australian Bureau of Statistics using the mothers country of birth. These categories included Oceania (Australia, New Zealand, New Zealand Maoris, Fiji, Samoa, Indonesia, Solomon Islands), Non-Southern Asia (China, Hong Kong, Cambodia, Vietnam, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand), Southern Asia (India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh), Europe and other. Data analysis The outcomes of interest were remission, relapse, and fre- quently relapsing or steroid-dependent nephrotic syndrome. To estimate incidence, population-based estimates were ob- tained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) 2001 census [12]. Population denominators were obtained for males and females. Age at onset, time to remission, and time from remission to first relapse were analyzed as continuous vari- ables. Baseline hematuria was analyzed as a dichotomous variable. Creatinine, daily prednisone dosage, and Pediatr Nephrol socioeconomic status were categorized into quartiles. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate the association between remission and relapse and the variables of interest by deriving hazard ratios (HR) and 95 % confidence intervals (CI). The KaplanMeier estimates of the proportion of children experiencing relapse were compared between sexes and age categories using the logrank test. Data was analyzed using SAS version 9.2 and STATA 11.0. Results Of the 210 case notifications received by the Australian Paediatric Surveillance Unit, 145 were confirmed to have newly diagnosed idiopathic nephrotic syndrome (Fig. 1). Of the 145 children with idiopathic nephrotic syndrome (Table 1), 129 had follow-up questionnaires completed by their clinician; 62 cases were reported by 55 general pediatri- cians and 67 cases by 14 pediatric nephrologists. Incidence The incidence of idiopathic nephrotic syndrome in Australia was 1.23 (95 % CI 1.031.4) per 100,000 children aged less than 15 years. The incidence in males was 1.33 per 100,000 and in females was 1.13 per 100,000. Patient characteristics Patient characteristics at presentation are shown in Table 1. Eighty (55 %) were boys and 91 (63 %) were aged less than 5 years at presentation. The majority of participants came from Oceania, with 80 % of children being English speaking. At presentation, 61 % of children had microscopic hematuria and 23 and 21 % of children had systolic or diastolic blood pressures respectively greater than the 90 % percentile for age and sex. All children were treated initially with prednisolone or prednisone at a dose of 60 mg/m 2 /day or 2 mg/kg/day. Outcome at 12 months Twelve-month follow-up data were available for 129 children (89 %). Of these, 107 (83 %) achieved remission and 22 (17 %) had steroid-resistant nephrotic syndrome (SRNS). Median time to achieve remission in children with SSNS was 12 days (95 % CI 1014). Eighty-six (80 %) of 107 children experienced one or more relapses (median of two relapses, range, 16) with the median time to relapse of 19 weeks (95 % CI 1323). Of 86 children with relapse, clinicians classified 41 (48 %) children as having infrequent relapses, 24 (28 %) as having frequent relapses, and 21 (24 %) as being steroid dependent. Of the 22 patients with SRNS, 11 were more than 7 years of age and 15 were females. Histopathology revealed minimal change disease in seven (32 %) children, focal and segmental gl omerul oscl erosi s i n 10 (45. 5 %) chi l dren and mesangioproliferative glomerulonephritis in five (23 %) children. Predictive factors for initial remission Remission occurred in 64 (90 %) boys and 43 (74 %) girls. Univariate analysis showed that younger age at diagnosis, male gender, and absence of hematuria were significant pre- dictors of remission (Table 2). We did not find a significant association between achieving remission and ethnicity, socio- economic status, blood pressure, or creatinine levels at pre- sentation. Multivariate analysis showed that male gender Fig. 1 Notification of cases of nephrotic syndrome and participant follow-up and outcomes Pediatr Nephrol (adjusted HR 1.52, 95 % CI 1.022.30) was the only sig- nificant predictive factor for achieving remission. Median time to achieve remission was shorter in boys (10 days [95 % CI 912]) than girls (14 days [95 % CI 1020] logrank test p=0.008). Predictive factors for first relapse Relapse occurred in 55 (85.9 %) boys and 31 (72.1 %) girls. Univariate analysis demonstrated that male gender, young age at diagnosis and longer time to achieve initial remission were significant predictors for first relapse (Table 3). In multivariate analysis, male gender (adjusted HR 1.77, 95 % CI 1.112.83) and longer time to achieve remission (adjusted HR1.02, 95 % CI 1.011.04) remained statistically significant predictors for first relapse. Boys relapsed earlier than girls (median time to relapse 15 weeks [95 % CI 1020] versus 23 weeks [95 % CI 1433] logrank test p=0.04) (Fig. 2). We observed a signifi- cant trend in age (trend p=0.02) with children older than 7 years of age having longer times to relapse compared with younger children (Fig. 3). Although children with a shorter time to remission (7 or fewer days) had a longer time to first relapse (median time to relapse, 21 weeks) compared to chil- dren who achieved remission after more than 14 days of therapy (median time to relapse, 13 weeks), there was no significant difference (trend p=0.43) when all children were considered. There was no statistically significant association between relapse of nephrotic syndrome and ethnicity, socio- economic status, blood pressure, hematuria, or creatinine levels at baseline or between relapse and the total duration of prednisone therapy. Predictive factors for frequent relapsing and steroid-dependent nephrotic syndrome Forty-five (52 %) children had frequently relapsing or steroid- dependent nephrotic syndrome. In univariate analyses, male gender, young age, and shorter time from remission to first relapse but not time to first remission were predictors for children to develop frequent relapsing or steroid-dependent nephrotic syndrome (Table 3). In multivariate analysis, male gender (adjusted HR 3.30; 95 % CI 1.189.23) and shorter time from remission to first relapse (adjusted HR 0.92; 95 % CI 0.870.97) remained independent predictors. Children with frequently relapsing or steroid-dependent nephrotic syn- drome experienced their first relapse earlier (9 weeks, 95 %CI 612) than children with infrequently relapsing nephrotic syndrome (20 weeks, 95 % CI 1626, logrank p=0.02). Discussion The main findings of this national prospective cohort study of childhood idiopathic nephrotic syndrome are that response to treatment differs between boys and girls with male gender predicting for remission during the initial course of cortico- steroid therapy, for first relapse and for a frequently relapsing or steroid-dependent course. Male gender is the only signifi- cant independent predictor for remission. Male gender and a Table 1 Characteristics of participating children (n=145) Characteristic n (%) Demographic Gender Male 80 (55.2) Female 65 (44.8) Age at onset (years) 3 months to 4.9 91 (63.2) 59 32 (22.2) >9 21 (14.6) Language spoken English 115 (79.3) Other 30 (20.7) Ethnicity a European 7 (5.3) Southern Asian 11 (8.4) Non-Southern Asian 14 (10.7) Oceanian 94 (71.8) North/sub-Saharan African/Middle Eastern 5 (3.8) Disadvantage category b Least disadvantage 37 (25.7) Low-mid disadvantage 35 (24.3) High-mid disadvantage 36 (25.0) Highest disadvantage 36 (25.0) Clinical Blood pressure percentiles Systolic BP 90th 108 (77.1) >90th 32 (22.9) Diastolic BP 90th 110 (78.6) >90th 30 (21.4) Creatinine (micromoles/l) <31 57 (39.3) >31 to <40 20 (13.8) >40 to <4,933 (22.8) 33 (22.8) >49 to <150 35 (24.1) Hematuria 87 (60.8) BP, blood pressure a Mothers country of birth classified using the major ethnic groupings defined by the Australian Bureau of Statistics b SEIFA scores: Least disadvantage (10391138), Low-mid disadvantage (9981039), High-mid disadvantage (955997), Highest disadvantage (781954) Pediatr Nephrol longer time to first remission are independent risk factors for the first relapse. Male gender and a shorter time from first remission to first relapse but not time to first remission are independent predictors for frequently relapsing and steroid- dependent nephrotic syndrome. We speculate that evaluating predictors in a population-based cohort could reveal different predictors from retrospective studies of selected populations so that in this study male gender proved to be the most important predictor of remission, relapse, and of frequently relapsing/steroid-sensitive disease. In this study, the incidence of idiopathic nephrotic syn- drome was 1.23 per 100,000 children below 15 years. Previous prospective studies, which identified children through Paediatric Surveillance Units, reported incidences of 1.52 and 1.9 per 100,000 children [13, 14]. We found that male gender was the only significant predictor for steroid responsiveness. That children with SRNS are more likely to be female has not been specifically mentioned in previ- ous reports. Nevertheless, our results are consistent with data from two studies, which showed that SRNS was slightly more common in girls [2, 15]. A study evaluating children recruited to a randomized controlled trial with newly diagnosed nephrotic syndrome found no differences in gender between children with SSNS or SRNS [16]. We could not confirm previous studies, which identified older age as a predictor for steroid resistance [1719]. Other reported risk factors for SRNS are African or African American origin [19] and kidney histopathology [1821]. Our population included few African children and children did not undergo routine kidney biopsy so further infor- mation on these predictors is not available in this study. Table 2 Predictors for initial re- mission with initial course of corticosteroid therapy* *Data from 129 children a Confidence intervals b Adjusted for gender c Data unavailable in two children Variable Remission No remission Unadjusted hazard ratio (95 % CI) a Adjusted hazard ratio (95 % CI) n (%) n (%) Gender Females 43 (74.1) 15 (25.9) Referent 1.00 Males 64 (90.1) 7 (9.9) 1.65 (1.112.44) 1.52 (1.022.30) Age at onset (years) 0.93 (0.880.99) 0.95 (0.891.01) b Hematuria c No 46 (93.9) 3 (6.1) Referent 1.00 Yes 59 (75.6) 19 (24.4) 0.62 (0.420.92) 0.68 (0.461.02) b Creatinine (micromoles/l) 31 48 (92.3) 4 Referent 1.00 >31 to 40 14 (73.7) 5 0.73 (0.401.35) 0.78 (0.421.44) b >40 to 49 24 (82.8) 5 0.88 (0.541.44) 0.88 (0.541.45) >49 to 150 21 (72.4) 8 0.76 (0.451.27) 0.74 (0.441.23) Table 3 Predictors for relapse following remission after initial course of corticosteroid therapy a First relapse following remission after initial course of prednisone therapy, data from 86 children b Child developing frequently re- lapsing or steroid dependent ste- roid-sensitive nephrotic syn- drome, data from 45 children c Hazard Ratio with 95 % confidence intervals d Adjusted for gender and time to relapse e Adjusted for gender and time to achieve remission Variable First relapse a (86 children) Frequent relapses b (45 children) Unadjusted HR c (95 % CI) Adjusted HR (95 % CI) Unadjusted HR (95 % CI) Adjusted HR (95 % CI) Gender Females Referent Referent Referent Referent Males 1.59 (1.032.48) 1.77 (1.112.83) 3.67 (1.459.33) 3.30 (1.189.23) Age at onset (years) 0.90 (0.830.98) 0.92 (0.851.01) d 0.84 (0.710.99) 0.91 (0.771.09) e Time to achieve remission (days) 1.02 (1.011.03) 1.02 (1.011.04) d 1.02 (0.991.04) 1.01 (0.981.04) e Hematuria No Referent Referent Referent Referent Yes 0.88 (0.571.36) 0.96 (0.611.49) d 0.99 (0.422.34) 0.72 (0.252.07) e Total Prednisone (daily/alternate day therapy) (weeks) 09.4 Referent Referent 9.512.6 1.06 (0.581.92) 0.95 (0.501.79) d 12.719.6 0.88 (0.491.56) 0.74 (0.401.35) >19.6 0.68 (0.381.23) 0.67 (0.361.26) Time to relapse (weeks) 0.91 (0.860.95) 0.92 (0.870.97) Pediatr Nephrol Most previous studies were retrospective and examined predictive factors for developing frequently relapsing or steroid-dependent nephrotic syndrome rather than predictive factors for first relapse [4, 5] with only one study specifically addressing predictors of the first relapse [22]. Other than one study [23], the studies presented data from specialized pedi- atric nephrology services. Eight studies determined indepen- dent risk factors for frequent relapse and steroid dependence using multivariate analysis [4, 5, 16, 22, 2427]. Our study identified male gender as an independent risk factor for re- lapse and for a frequently relapsing or steroid-dependent course in keeping with some [23, 28] but not other studies [4, 5, 16, 22, 2527, 2931]. This study did not identify young age at onset as an independent risk factor in keeping with some studies [4, 5, 16, 27, 2931] but not other studies [2225, 28, 32]. Variability between studies may be related to differences in patient selection since one study [22] identi- fied young age as an independent risk factor for the first relapse in a consecutive cohort of newly diagnosed patients but did not find young age to be a risk factor for relapses occurring in the second year of the disease in a group of patients followed for at least 2 years [26]. We found that a longer time to first remission predicted for first relapse but we were unable to confirm previous retrospective studies [4, 5, 16, 24, 27, 30, 33], which found that time to first remission was a significant predictor for frequently relapsing or steroid- dependent, steroid-sensitive nephrotic syndrome but small patient numbers in our study resulting in imprecision may have masked a difference. We found that a shorter time from remission to first relapse predicted for a frequently relapsing course in common with some studies [3, 16, 26, 29, 31]. Other factors reported to be associated with frequently relapsing or steroid-dependent, steroid-sensitive nephrotic syndrome but not examined in this study are the number of relapses in the first 6 months after diagnosis [3, 16, 26, 29, 31, 33], infection at presentation, or relapse [5, 31] and the need of pulse methylprednisolone to achieve remission [27, 30]. The strength of this study is that it was a prospective population-based cohort study with case ascertainment through the Australian Paediatric Surveillance Unit (APSU), which has developed effective processes for identifying unusual pediatric disorders. The APSUreports a 96 %response rate to its monthly requests to pediatricians for reports of listed conditions [34]. We obtained 1-year follow-up data in 129 (89 %) of the children. This study therefore had an adequate number of participants to examine the predictors for remission and relapse using univar- iate and multivariate analysis and to determine which factors were independent risk factors for remission and relapse. The main limitation of this study is that we had no separate and independent way to assess whether we had identified all new cases of idiopathic nephrotic syndrome during the study period. It is possible that some older children, managed by adult nephrologists, were not identified though a request through the Australia and New Zealand Society of Nephrology did not identify additional cases. Our study had follow-up data only at 1 year so that the assessment of children as having an infrequently relapsing, frequently relapsing or steroid-dependent course by their pediatricians may not fully reflect their subsequent course. Although the data were col- lected between 1998 and 2001 with only 1 year of follow-up, the data on predictors in idiopathic childhood nephrotic syn- drome remain relevant to current practice since there is no evidence that the time to remission and relapse rates following corticosteroid therapy have changed in the past 10 years [23]. Although earlier consensus-based guidelines [35, 36] recom- mended shorter courses of corticosteroids than current guide- lines [37], this study and more recent studies [38, 39] have demonstrated considerable variation in the duration and dose of corticosteroid therapy between individual clinicians so different guidelines for therapy 10 years ago are unlikely to have influenced the results of this study. Fig. 2 KaplanMeier estimates of the proportion of children with first relapse in steroid-sensitive nephrotic syndrome stratified by gender Fig. 3 KaplanMeier estimates of the proportion of children with first relapse in steroid-sensitive nephrotic syndrome stratified by age at initial presentation Pediatr Nephrol In conclusion, we have identified predictors for remission and relapse in a national prospective cohort study of childhood idiopathic nephrotic syndrome. These predictors can be used in counseling families about the likely course of idiopathic nephrotic syndrome in their child. They could also be used to determine enrollment into randomized controlled trials to customize corticosteroid regimens for children with new- onset idiopathic nephrotic syndrome and thus potentially re- duce exposure to corticosteroids in children destined not to relapse or to relapse infrequently. Acknowledgments This study was performed using case ascertain- ment through the Australian Paediatric Surveillance Unit (APSU). The activities of the APSU are supported by the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia (Enabling Grant no. 402784 and Practi- tioner Fellowship No 1021480: E. Elliott); the Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing; the Sydney Medical School, The University of Sydney and the Royal Australasian College of Physicians. The authors would like to thank all Australian pediatricians who partic- ipated in APSU surveillance, reported cases, and completed question- naires on their patients. The study was funded in part by Kidney Health Australia. Kidney Health Australia had no involvement in the design, data collection, data analysis or writing of the manuscript. Parts of this study were presented at the 13th Congress of the Interna- tional Pediatric Nephrology Association, August 29 to September 2 2004, Adelaide, Australia, and were published in abstract form. The authors would like to thank Mrs. Sandra Puckeridge and Dr. Jeffrey Fletcher for their assistance with data collection and for the preliminary analyses of the data. The authors would also like to thank the Australian members of the Australia and New Zealand Paediatric Nephrology Association, who reviewed the protocol and questionnaires for this study. Disclosures None. References 1. Eddy AA, Symons JM (2003) Nephrotic syndrome in childhood. Lancet 362:629639 2. Koskimies O, Vilska J, Rapola J, Hallman N (1982) Long-term outcome of primary nephrotic syndrome. Arch Dis Child 57: 544548 3. 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