246638944.xls.

ms_office, Instructions, page 1

Central Limit Theorem Demonstration 29 October 2007

John O. McClain

Johnson Graduate School of Management

Sage Hall, Cornell University
Ithaca NY 14853
This spreadsheet is intended for teaching purposes. You are welcome to use it in any
manner and change it as you see fit. This model comes without any guarantee, and is
distributed free of charge.
Note: If the worksheets don't seem to work properly, read the Warning worksheet.
Introduction
The Central Limit Theorem (CLT) is the basis for much of what we do in Statistics. Simply
stated, it says that we can use the Normal Probability Distribution when we are working with
Sample Averages, even when the data from which the average was calculated does not
have the Normal Distribution. The assumptions are that (1) the observations are independent
of one another, (2) the observations come from a probability distribution for which the mean
and standard deviation exist, and (3) the sample is "sufficiently large". Assumption (1)
depends on how the data set was gathered. Assumption (2) is satisfied for almost every realworld situation. This Excel file allows you to experiment with the third assumption, to see just
how many observations must be in a data set for the CLT to hold.
The answer depends on the distribution of the "population" from which the data came. For
example, if the "true" distribution is highly skewed, the sample size must be at least 30 to
assure that the Normal Distribution can accurately describe the average of the sample.
However, sample averages from moderately skewed distributions can be described by the
Normal Distribution, even if the sample size is much smaller, even as small as 5.
The Central Limit Theorem also states that the error of the sample average decreases for
larger samples, and is in fact divided by the square root of the sample size.
Instructions
Go to the Graphs worksheet.
1. Choose a probability distribution by clicking the Change Distribution button.
The Uniform Distribution makes all values equally likely between two limits.
The Gamma Distribution changes shape from "nearly bell-shaped" (like the normal
distribution) to "highly skewed" (like the exponential distribution). To make it more
skewed, increase the standard deviation. To make it more symmetrical, decrease the
standard deviation.
2. Enter the desired mean, standard deviation and sample size. The mean and standard
deviation describe the population from which the samples will be drawn.
3. Gather data:
To "gather" one observation at a time, click the 1 Observation button repeatedly.
The 1 Sample button adds a complete sample of n observations to the data set.
The 20 Samples button adds 20 complete samples, each having n observations, to the
data set.
The 100 Sample button adds 100 complete samples to the data set. This is done without
animation to speed up the program.
4. Watch what happens to the Graphs, described below.

246638944.xls.ms_office, Instructions, page 2

NOTE: Observations are collected on the NewSample worksheet until the sample of
n observations has been gathered. Then they are transferred to the Sample worksheet,
and their average is transferred to the Averages worksheet.
The Graphs
Probability Distribution shows the theoretical shape of the probability distribution you have
chosen.
Individual Observations shows the distribution of all of the data in all of the samples you
have collected. This data set is given on the Sample worksheet. Each sample is one row on
that worksheet, and consists of n observations. You choose the value of n on the Graphs
worksheet.
Sample Averages shows the distribution of the averages of each sample. The data set for
this graph is on the Averages worksheet. Each row on this worksheet contains a single
number, equal to the average of the same row on the Sample worksheet.
Some Experiments:
1. Using the Uniform Distribution, set the sample size = 5.
a. Collect one complete sample of 5 observations. Why doesn't the Individual
Observations graph look like all values are equally likely? Why does the Sample
Averages graph show only one observation?
b.

Collect 20 more complete samples of 5 observations. On the Individual Observations

graph, if you add up the heights of the bars you will get 105 observations, but if you do
the same on the Sample Averages graph you will get only 21. Why?

c.

Collect 100 more complete samples of 5 observations. Has the Individual Observations
graph begun to look more like all values are equally likely? How would you describe the
shape of the Sample Averages graph?

d.

Collect 1000 more complete samples of 5 observations, and comment on the shapes of
the Individual Observations graph and the Sample Averages graph.

e.

Compare the standard deviations of the Individual Observations and the Sample
Averages. Is the latter smaller by a factor of the square root of n, as the CLT predicts?
2. Using the Gamma Distribution, repeat the previous experiment. What shapes do the two
graphs tend toward?
3. Using the Gamma Distribution, increase the sample size to 20 observations and repeat the
previous experiment. What shapes do the two graphs tend toward?

246638944.xls.ms_office, Graphs, page 3

Individual observations
New Sample, n=0

350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0

Distribution
mean
sdev
n

3005 obs, (N=601, n=5)

Uniform
10
3
5
observations per sample (no more than 50)
Probability Distribution:
Uniform: mu=10 sigma=3

more

16.6

15.7

14.7

13.8

12.8

11.9

10.9

10

9.1

8.1

7.2

6.2

5.3

less

Av= 10 StDev= 2.96

Midpoints

Averages of Samples
N=601 samples of n=5 obs. each.

160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0

Midpoints

more

16.6

15.7

14.7

13.8

12.8

11.9

10.9

10

9.1

8.1

7.2

6.2

5.3

less

Av= 10 StDev= 1.33

10

20

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15.04415
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8.931065
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10.70022
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10.42827
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11.18678
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8.741808
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10.66672
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246638944.xls.ms_office, Warning, p. 28 of 28

WARNING: YOU NEED TO CHANGE AN EXCEL SETTING

If you are reading this, the Macros that make this file interactive ARE NOT WORKING.
There are two possible causes for this malfunction.
1. When you opened this file, you should have seen something similar to Figure 1. You probably made the wrong choice.
Figure 1. What you should see when you open this file

Figure 2. The Correct Security Level

Here is what you should do:

Close this file. Then open it again, and click Enable Macros
2. If you DID NOT get a message like the one above, then your security setting is too high.
Here is what you should do:
A. On the menu bar at the top of this page, select Tools, then Macro, then Security. You should then see something similar to Figure 2.
Select Medium and click OK.
B. Then exit from Excel. (Closing the file is not enough. On the menu bar at the top of this page, select File, and then Exit.)
C. Start Excel and open this file.
Click Enable Macros.