Sheet: Directions

PredInt.xls

Page 1

PredInt.xls

Version 8.3 06 December 2007

Regression with Prediction Intervals
John.O.McClain@cornell.edu
Johnson Graduate School of Management
Cornell University
Ithaca NY 14853

This spreadsheet is intended for teaching purposes. You are welcome to use it in any manner,
and change it as you see fit. This model comes without any guarantee whatsoever, and is
distributed free of charge.
New in Version 8: Compatibality with Excel 2007 and 2003
From earlier versions: Easy-to-copy Prediction Interval formulas,Line-fit Plots with y and y-hat,
Standardized residuals, outlier detection, residual plots and line-fit plots,
and a Normal Probability Plot to determine if residuals have the normal distribution.
Prediction Intervals are confidence intervals surrounding a predicted value of Y. The predicted
value of Y is obtained by plugging a set of X values into the linear regression equations, using
the coefficients obtained by doing a regression. For example, suppose you ran a regression that
explains demand as a function of price and advertising, and the result was:
Demand = 500 - 5*Price + 0.01*Advertising
If you wish to predict what demand would be if price = $10 and advertising = $20,000, plug them in:
Predicted Demand = 500 - 5*10 + 0.01*20,000 = 650
To quantify how accurate this prediction may be, a prediction interval is often used. Unfortunately,
the Excel regression tool does not have this feature.
To make prediction intervals available for my students, I wrote the PredictionInterval macro, which
is part of this workbook. It automatically adds a worksheet on which the analysis is displayed.
Step 1: Enter your data on a fresh worksheet.
A. Select an empty sheet, or add a new sheet using Shift-F11, or
For Excel 2003, From the menu bar, select Insert, Worksheet
For Excel 2007, on the Home tab, click on the down arrow next to Insert, and select Worksheet
B. Type the data manually, or copy/paste it from another document.
The following requirements must be satisfied:
C. The top row of your data should contain names for each of the variables.
Each row below that should contain values for all of the variables. A row is one observation.
D. All of the Variables need to be side-by-side. (That is, they have to be in adjacent columns.)
The "Dependent Variable", Y, (also called the Criterion Variable) may be in any column.
The usual arrangement is to put Y in column A, and the X variables in the remaining columns.
However, this arrangement is not necessary. The program will allow you to select any of
your variables as Y and X.
The figure below shows part of the data from the example on the GPA worksheet.
Dependent variable
GPA

Independent variables, X
Gender

4.15
3.76
3.02
2.9
2.96
4.22

Work
0
1
0
0
0
0

GMAT
0
4
8
3
9
1

680
630
650
590
660
610

Sheet: Directions

PredInt.xls

Page 2

Step 2: Run the PredictionInterval macro

A. If you have not already done so, open PredInt.xls.
B. Go to the worksheet where you entered the data in Step 1.
C. Locate the Prediction Interval macro as follows:
For Excel 2003, From the menu bar, select Tools, Macro
For Excel 2007, Click on the View tab, and click the Macros button (far right)
D. From the list that appears, select PredictionInterval
Note, it might appear something like this: PredInt.xls!PredictionInterval
E. Click Run and follow the directions.
Step 3: Make your prediction
Part of the output for the GPA example is shown below. The rest is on the GPA Results worksheet.
The blue box allows you to set the confidence level . This is used in 3 places:
Confidence Intervals for each of the coefficients
Prediction Interval for a single future observation of Y (given particular values for the X variables)
Confidence Interval for the conditional mean of Y
If you go to the GPA Results worksheet and change the value in the blue box to, say, 0.9,
all of the intervals become narrower, and the headings change as well.
To the right, the yellow boxes are where you put values for the independent (predictor) variables , X.
The macro inserts the average values. Put in the values that you want to use to predict Y.
If you go to the GPA Results worksheet and change the values in the yellow boxes to (for example) 0 for
Gender, 5 for Work and 700 for GMAT, the predicted value for GPA will change, and so will the
confidence and prediction intervals.
Dependent (Criterion)
Variable: GPA
Intercept
Gender
Work
GMAT
Confidence Level
0.95

CoefStandard
P-value
Lower
Upper
X Values for
ficients
Error
t Stat
(2-tails)
95%
95%
Prediction
2.2824953 0.467448 4.88289 2.71E-06 1.358657 3.206333
0.2559016 0.082582 3.098767 0.002332 0.092691 0.419112 0.253333333
-0.046813 0.014787 -3.16581 0.001883 -0.07604 -0.01759
4.86
0.0018435 0.000723 2.548962 0.011837 0.000414 0.003273 628.3333333
Prediction Interval for a Single Observation
Predicted 3.278133338
of GPA, with the X Values that you
Standard Error 0.437520136
enter in the yellow boxes.
Lower 95% 2.413442329
Upper 95% 4.142824347
Confidence Interval for Expected GPA
Fit 3.278133338
while holding X constant at the values that you
Standard Error 0.035604884
enter in the yellow boxes.
Lower 95% 3.207765782
Upper 95% 3.348500895

Notice that the confidence interval is narrower than the prediction interval. This is always true.
There is more uncertainty in predicting a single outcome than in predicting a "large sample" average.
Preparing and Graphing Multiple Predictions:
You may copy the formulas in the column under "X Values for Prediction" and change the X values
to make a series of predictions. For example, on the GPA Results worksheet there are several copies
of that column, and the X values were changed to represent a male with varying GMAT scores.
This handy arrangement makes it easy to plot a series of predictions, together with the upper
and lower values corresponding to the level of confidence that you select.

Sheet: Directions

PredInt.xls

Technical Notes:
There is very little error checking built into the macro, so if your data has problems the
routine could fail. In that case, you might want to run the Excel regression tool, and see if it gives
you any advice about what might be wrong.
The Excel regression tool may be found in menu Tools, DataAnalysis, Regression
which is available if you have installed two of Excel's Add-ins:
Analysis Toolpack and Analysis Toolpack (VBA).
Standardized Residuals & Outliers, Leverage & Influential Observations
Excel's regression tool prints standardized residuals, but they are not the same as the ones used in
MINITAB and other statistical packages. I have added standardized residuals to the output, matching
the ones in MINITAB.
Standardized residuals that exceed 2.0 are indicated as "outliers". If the regression assumption
is satisfied, approximately 5% of the observations should have residuals that large or larger. The output
now "flags" those observations with the word "outlier" in the last column of the residual output.
A term called "leverage" is used to detect "influential observations", those with leverage exceeding
3(p + 1)/2 in which p is the number of independent (predictor) variables. A term with high leverage
has the potential of having an undue influence on the estimates of the regression coefficients.
This is usually the result of having an unusually large value for one or more of the independent
variables. Those observations are flagged "influential" in the last column of the residual output.
Excel also produces residual plots and line-fit plots, which allow you to determine visually the
accuracy of the regression assumptions. However, the scales of those plots are not suitable for
accurate visual assessment. I have added plots of the standardized residuals and line-fit plots to
this program. The vertical axis of a residual plot is the standardized residual.
The vertical axis of a line-fit plot is the actual value of y, the dependent variable.
The output now includes two plots (residual and line-fit) for each independent (predictor) variable.
In addition, it includes the most commonly used residual plot, which uses the predicted (fitted) values
of y on the horizontal axis. Excel's regression tool does not produce that plot.
Normal Probability Plot
Excel's regression tool has an option to do a Normal Probability Plot. However, the plot that they use
is not the same as the ones in most statistical packages.
The Normal Probability Plot produced by this PredictionInterval macro is the same as you would
get from most programs. It includes a set of points and a straight line at about a 45 degree angle.
Ideally, the points should lie very close to the line. Large deviations from a straight line calls
into question the assumption that the residuals have the normal probability distribution. All of the
p-values are based on that assumption, as are the confidence and prediction intervals.
However, modest deviations from the normal distribution are not fatal. The statistics are fairly robust
to this assumption.

Page 3

SUMMARY OUTPUT: Regression using PredInt.xls

Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.41833
R Square
0.175
Adjusted R Square
0.1580479
Standard Error
0.436069
Observations
150

Charts ==>
Note: This graph was made
from data in these columns,
which were produced by copying the
"X Values for Prediction" column.
and entering new X values.
= Standard Deviation of Residuals

Predicted GPA for a Male with 4 Years

Work Experience

ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total
Dependent (Criterion)
Variable: GPA
Intercept
Gender
Work
GMAT
Confidence Level
0.95

SS
MS
F
Significance (p-value) for F
3 5.889077 1.963026 10.32323 3.33E-06
146 27.7628 0.190156 = Variance of Residuals
149 33.65188 0.225852 = Variance of Dependent Variable

CoefStandard
P-value
Lower
Upper
X Values for
ficients
Error
t Stat
(2-tails)
95%
95%
Prediction
2.2824954 0.467448 4.88289 2.71E-06 1.358657 3.206333
0.2559016 0.082582 3.098767 0.002332 0.092691 0.419112 0.253333333
-0.046813 0.014787 -3.16581 0.001883 -0.07604 -0.01759
4.86
0.0018435 0.000723 2.548962 0.011837 0.000414 0.003273 628.3333333
Prediction Interval for a Single Observation
Predicted 3.278133333
of GPA, with the X Values that you
Standard Error 0.437520138
enter in the yellow boxes.
Lower 95% 2.41344231
Upper 95% 4.142824357
Confidence Interval for Expected GPA
Fit 3.278133333
while holding X constant at the values that you
Standard Error 0.035604884
enter in the yellow boxes.
Lower 95% 3.207765776
Upper 95% 3.348500891

Correlations of the Regression Coefficients

Intercept
Gender
Work
GMAT
Intercept
1 -0.04637 -0.23539 -0.98332
Gender -0.046375
1 0.128259 -0.01862
Work -0.235392 0.128259
1 0.078087
GMAT -0.983321 -0.01862 0.078087
1
Covariances of the Regression Coefficients
Intercept
Gender
Intercept 0.2185073 -0.00179
Gender
-0.00179 0.00682
Work -0.001627 0.000157
GMAT -0.000332 -1.1E-06

Observation Fit of GPA

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19

3.5360631
3.5125382
3.106254
3.2297105
3.0778757
3.3602063
3.3233366
3.5947689
3.3488108
3.4756686
3.5011427
3.1161974
3.1360843
3.0240233
3.6699602
3.5877296
3.2813769
3.3786411
3.3388673

Work
GMAT
-0.00163 -0.00033
0.000157 -1.1E-06
0.000219 8.35E-07
8.35E-07 5.23E-07

StDev of
Fit

Residual
y - yHat

StDev of
Residual

0.090894
0.070899
0.063115
0.058954
0.076719
0.07452
0.079144
0.087699
0.057328
0.072546
0.096929
0.050451
0.049362
0.059656
0.08418
0.079242
0.101513
0.073178
0.06665

0.613937
0.247462
-0.08625
-0.32971
-0.11788
0.859794
-0.15334
0.135231
-0.13881
-0.04567
-0.22114
-0.3262
-0.11608
-0.06402
-0.42996
-0.25773
-0.33138
0.011359
0.101133

0.426491
0.430267
0.431477
0.432066
0.429267
0.429654
0.428827
0.427159
0.432284
0.429992
0.42516
0.433141
0.433266
0.431969
0.427867
0.428809
0.424089
0.429885
0.430945

Standardi
zed
Residual
1.439508
0.575136
-0.1999
-0.7631
-0.2746
2.001129
-0.35757
0.316582
-0.32111
-0.10621
-0.52014
-0.7531
-0.26793
-0.14821
-1.00489
-0.60104
-0.78139
0.026423
0.234676

Leverage

Notes

0.043447
0.026434
0.020948
0.018277
0.030953
0.029204 Outlier
0.03294
0.040446
0.017283
0.027677
0.049408
0.013385
0.012814
0.018716
0.037266
0.033022
0.054191
0.028161
0.023361

5
4
3
2
1
0
600

1
4
650
3.549408
0.442001
2.675861
4.422955
3.549408
0.072172
3.406771
3.692045

650

700

1
4
670
3.586278
0.44268
2.711389
4.461166
3.586278
0.07622
3.435641
3.736914

750

1
4
690
3.623147
0.44383
2.745987
4.500308
3.623147
0.082635
3.459833
3.786462

20
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3.2736194
3.2013322
3.3786411
3.4089686
3.4424369
2.9587754
3.5763341
3.1862987
3.3551162
3.0041364
3.0325147
3.3005456
3.5508599
3.1828974
3.0708364
3.3303759
3.3941718
3.3701497
3.0424581
3.1644626
3.2282584
3.0608929
3.7167733
3.3303759
3.265128
3.5409165
3.0594409
3.3587542
3.153067
3.4203641
3.7635864
3.1261409
2.9672668
3.4155107
3.214677
3.0807798
3.2714335
3.0594409
3.1913888
3.2098236
3.1644626
3.2935063
3.4104207
3.6345427
3.331828
3.2949584
3.1346322
3.5360631
3.1346322
3.6047123
3.2835629
2.8935275
3.0807798
3.3672456
3.5692948
3.0439102
3.4807586
3.462821
3.6231471
3.2183149
2.9403406
3.4155107
3.153067
3.1814453
3.0240233
3.0992147
3.2183149

0.063564
0.048785
0.073178
0.082817
0.069996
0.071086
0.083713
0.1037
0.083486
0.071404
0.060675
0.091455
0.082412
0.05232
0.054788
0.052982
0.08477
0.09118
0.056097
0.056564
0.042179
0.053288
0.088213
0.052982
0.047416
0.073941
0.074378
0.055258
0.053592
0.080012
0.094414
0.045052
0.073025
0.07261
0.097626
0.063926
0.093867
0.074378
0.041572
0.041247
0.056564
0.046497
0.074613
0.086769
0.061582
0.06527
0.05154
0.090894
0.05154
0.079162
0.05138
0.084
0.063926
0.062214
0.080518
0.075561
0.085659
0.125405
0.082635
0.050017
0.075217
0.07261
0.053592
0.044711
0.059656
0.058583
0.050017

0.026381
-0.33133
0.241359
-0.51897
-0.26244
0.101225
-0.52633
-0.1963
-0.12512
0.215864
-0.83251
-0.39055
-0.92086
-0.9029
-0.06084
-0.77038
-0.08417
0.01985
-0.50246
-0.10446
0.411742
-0.13089
0.463227
0.309624
0.354872
-0.21092
0.440559
0.851246
0.516933
0.689636
-0.07359
-0.58614
-0.20727
-0.18551
-0.78468
0.34922
1.138567
1.210559
0.018611
-0.37982
0.425537
-0.95351
0.389579
0.445457
0.588172
-0.39496
0.045368
0.273937
-0.21463
-0.60471
-0.58356
-0.45353
0.58922
-0.38725
0.010705
-0.07391
-0.42076
-0.01282
0.596853
-0.68831
0.299659
-0.40551
-0.05307
0.558555
0.605977
0.600785
0.181685

0.431411
0.433331
0.429885
0.428133
0.430415
0.430236
0.427958
0.423559
0.428003
0.430183
0.431827
0.426371
0.428211
0.432919
0.432613
0.432838
0.42775
0.42643
0.432446
0.432385
0.434024
0.432801
0.427053
0.432838
0.433483
0.429754
0.429679
0.432554
0.432763
0.428666
0.425725
0.433736
0.429911
0.429981
0.425
0.431358
0.425846
0.429679
0.434083
0.434114
0.432385
0.433583
0.429638
0.427349
0.431699
0.431157
0.433012
0.426491
0.433012
0.428823
0.433032
0.427902
0.431358
0.431608
0.428571
0.429473
0.427573
0.417648
0.428168
0.433191
0.429533
0.429981
0.432763
0.433771
0.431969
0.432116
0.433191

0.061149
-0.76462
0.56145
-1.21217
-0.60973
0.235277
-1.22987
-0.46345
-0.29233
0.501795
-1.92789
-0.91598
-2.15048
-2.0856
-0.14063
-1.77982
-0.19678
0.04655
-1.1619
-0.2416
0.94866
-0.30243
1.084704
0.715334
0.818652
-0.49078
1.025322
1.967954
1.194494
1.608797
-0.17285
-1.35138
-0.48212
-0.43144
-1.8463
0.809583
2.673656
2.817357
0.042875
-0.87494
0.984164
-2.19913
0.906761
1.042373
1.362459
-0.91604
0.104772
0.642304
-0.49567
-1.41017
-1.34762
-1.05989
1.365966
-0.89722
0.024979
-0.1721
-0.98406
-0.0307
1.393969
-1.58894
0.69764
-0.94309
-0.12262
1.287672
1.402824
1.390333
0.419411

0.021247
0.012516
0.028161
0.036069
0.025765
0.026574
0.036854
0.056552
0.036654
0.026813
0.01936
0.043985
0.035716
0.014396
0.015786
0.014762
0.03779
0.043721
0.016549
0.016825
0.009356
0.014933
0.040922
0.014762
0.011824
0.028751
0.029093
0.016057
0.015104
0.033667
0.046877
0.010674
0.028043
0.027725
0.050121
0.02149
0.046336
0.029093
0.009089
0.008947
0.016825
0.01137
0.029277
0.039593
0.019943
0.022403
0.01397
0.043447
0.01397
0.032955
0.013883
0.037106
0.02149
0.020355
0.034094
0.030025
0.038587
0.082702
0.03591
0.013156
0.029752
0.027725
0.015104
0.010513
0.018716
0.018048
0.013156

Outlier
Outlier

Outlier
Outlier

Outlier

Influential

87
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150

3.0608929
3.3536642
3.1261409
3.4019293
3.7267168
3.0424581
3.3834945
3.0963105
3.3119411
3.0225712
3.1630105
2.8297317
3.2765236
3.2282584
3.1913888
3.3233366
3.42255
3.375737
3.0822319
3.331828
3.755095
3.2183149
3.3303759
2.9672668
2.9687188
3.0240233
3.6784516
3.2750715
3.4288555
3.1176495
3.1899367
3.1091581
3.2013322
3.48925
2.9034709
3.2367498
3.4742165
3.0608929
3.331828
3.3970759
3.1899367
3.2935063
3.377189
3.4962893
3.1261409
3.2183149
3.7167733
3.4339456
3.1899367
3.2047335
3.2098236
3.1275929
3.4472903
3.3034497
3.2083715
3.1913888
3.2069194
3.1545191
2.9687188
3.4870641
3.2466932
3.1814453
3.5692948
3.4089686

0.053288
0.081191
0.045052
0.083611
0.089416
0.056097
0.087661
0.079651
0.049318
0.071683
0.043642
0.107151
0.068198
0.042179
0.041572
0.079144
0.07906
0.078529
0.101167
0.061582
0.096502
0.050017
0.052982
0.073025
0.073637
0.059656
0.095612
0.044681
0.072861
0.053684
0.060145
0.072203
0.048785
0.079762
0.084737
0.053944
0.07844
0.053288
0.061582
0.072535
0.060145
0.046497
0.058409
0.104347
0.045052
0.050017
0.088213
0.073401
0.060145
0.10175
0.041247
0.066614
0.071799
0.051056
0.064397
0.041572
0.10626
0.045781
0.073637
0.110555
0.044287
0.044711
0.080518
0.082817

-0.52089
0.036336
0.583859
-0.41193
0.223283
0.097542
0.736506
0.533689
0.018059
-0.01257
0.03699
0.030268
0.003476
0.111742
0.148611
-0.09334
-0.02255
-0.21574
-0.51223
0.548172
0.184905
0.081685
0.359624
-0.41727
0.861281
0.125977
0.961548
-0.11507
0.531144
-0.74765
-0.10994
0.700842
0.068668
-0.01925
-0.17347
-0.44675
0.085783
-0.44089
0.248172
0.082924
0.430063
0.006494
0.002811
-0.41629
0.153859
-0.22831
0.003227
-0.49395
-0.09994
0.235266
0.060176
-0.78759
-0.03729
0.07655
0.821628
0.308611
0.173081
-0.21452
-0.03872
-0.09706
0.193307
0.128555
-0.68929
-0.61897

0.432801
0.428444
0.433736
0.427978
0.426803
0.432446
0.427167
0.428733
0.433271
0.430137
0.43388
0.4227
0.430703
0.434024
0.434083
0.428827
0.428842
0.42894
0.424172
0.431699
0.425257
0.433191
0.432838
0.429911
0.429807
0.431969
0.425458
0.433774
0.429939
0.432752
0.431901
0.43005
0.433331
0.428712
0.427757
0.43272
0.428956
0.432801
0.431699
0.429994
0.431901
0.433583
0.43214
0.4234
0.433736
0.433191
0.427053
0.429847
0.431901
0.424032
0.434114
0.430951
0.430118
0.43307
0.431288
0.434083
0.422924
0.433659
0.429807
0.421822
0.433814
0.433771
0.428571
0.428133

-1.20354
0.084809
1.346118
-0.9625
0.523153
0.225559
1.724162
1.244806
0.04168
-0.02923
0.085253
0.071607
0.008072
0.257455
0.342357
-0.21766
-0.05258
-0.50295
-1.20761
1.269802
0.434808
0.188566
0.830851
-0.97059
2.00388
0.291634
2.260031
-0.26528
1.235396
-1.72766
-0.25454
1.629676
0.158465
-0.0449
-0.40554
-1.03242
0.199982
-1.0187
0.574873
0.192849
0.995744
0.014977
0.006505
-0.9832
0.35473
-0.52705
0.007556
-1.14912
-0.23139
0.554832
0.138619
-1.82757
-0.0867
0.176762
1.905058
0.71095
0.409247
-0.49467
-0.09008
-0.23011
0.445598
0.296365
-1.60836
-1.44574

0.014933
0.034667
0.010674
0.036764
0.042045
0.016549
0.040411
0.033363
0.012791
0.027022
0.010016
0.060378
0.024459
0.009356
0.009089
0.03294
0.03287
0.03243
0.053823
0.019943
0.048973
0.013156
0.014762
0.028043
0.028515 Outlier
0.018716
0.048074 Outlier
0.010499
0.027918
0.015156
0.019023
0.027416
0.012516
0.033456
0.03776
0.015303
0.032357
0.014933
0.019943
0.027668
0.019023
0.01137
0.017941
0.057259
0.010674
0.013156
0.040922
0.028333
0.019023
0.054445
0.008947
0.023336
0.027109
0.013708
0.021808
0.009089
0.059379
0.011022
0.028515
0.064275
0.010315
0.010513
0.034094
0.036069

PA for a Male with 4 Years

ork Experience

Predicted
Lower 95%
Upper 95%
750

1
4
710
3.660017
0.445446
2.779662
4.540372
3.660017
0.090917
3.480333
3.839701

1
4
730
3.696886
0.447524
2.812424
4.581349
3.696886
0.100608
3.498051
3.895722

Normal
Scores
0.641232
0.293553
-0.099057
-0.312071
-0.159925
0.815197
-0.191492
0.199536
-0.183512
-0.04738
-0.266724
-0.302744
-0.152169
-0.069404
-0.438631
-0.284491
-0.33117
0.040069
0.159925

0.069404
-0.321543
0.284491
-0.533349
-0.293553
0.167733
-0.565525
-0.215834
-0.167733
0.258006
-0.861295
-0.361078
-1.00156
-0.919684
-0.062046
-0.743516
-0.091606
0.062046
-0.503841
-0.129176
0.39279
-0.175594
0.450869
0.34096
0.361078
-0.23244
0.426729
0.776738
0.463472
0.663504
-0.076782
-0.601115
-0.224096
-0.207649
-0.776738
0.350926
1.00156
1.150708
0.054705
-0.34096
0.403831
-1.150708
0.381995
0.438631
0.549064
-0.37143
0.099057
0.312071
-0.249389
-0.620517
-0.582835
-0.476476
0.565525
-0.350926
0.032768
-0.084182
-0.426729
-0.010914
0.582835
-0.663504
0.321543
-0.381995
-0.054705
0.518298
0.620517
0.601115
0.23244

-0.549064
0.084182
0.533349
-0.39279
0.266724
0.152169
0.714123
0.489917
0.04738
-0.003638
0.091606
0.076782
0.018193
0.175594
0.207649
-0.106537
-0.025477
-0.258006
-0.518298
0.503841
0.240869
0.129176
0.37143
-0.415137
0.861295
0.183512
0.919684
-0.144461
0.476476
-0.714123
-0.136798
0.687656
0.114049
-0.018193
-0.199536
-0.463472
0.144461
-0.450869
0.302744
0.136798
0.415137
0.025477
0.003638
-0.403831
0.215834
-0.275551
0.010914
-0.489917
-0.121594
0.275551
0.106537
-0.815197
-0.032768
0.121594
0.743516
0.33117
0.224096
-0.240869
-0.040069
-0.114049
0.249389
0.191492
-0.687656
-0.641232

Normal Probability Plot

1.5

Normal Scores

Standardized Residual

Residual Plot

1
0
-1

0.5
0
-0.5

-2

-1

-3

-1.5
2.7

3.2

3.7

-1.5

-1

-0.5

Fit of GPA

0.5

Residuals
5

Residual Plot

GPA

Fit of GPA

4.5
4
3.5

3
GPA

Standardized Residual

4
2
1

2.5
2

1.5

-1

-2

0.5

-3

0
-0.3

0.2

0.7

1.2

-0.3

0.2

Gender

0.7

1.2

Gender
5

Residual Plot

GPA

Fit of GPA

4.5
4
3.5

3
GPA

Standardized Residual

4
2
1

2.5
2

1.5

-1

-2

0.5

-3

0
-3

12

-3

Work
5
4.5
4
3.5

3
GPA

Standardized Residual

7
Work

Residual Plot

2.5
2

1.5

-1

-2

0.5

GPA

Fit of GPA

12

1.5

Standardized Residu

-1

-2

0.5

-3

0
450

550

650
GMAT

750

450

550

650
GMAT

750

Sheet: GPA
Observ
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57

GPA
Gender Work GMAT Major
4.15
0
0
680
1
3.76
1
4
630
1
3.02
0
8
650
3
2.9
0
3
590
1
2.96
0
9
660
3
4.22
0
1
610
2
3.17
0
1
590
3
3.73
1
5
700
1
3.21
0
4
680
5
3.43
1
4
610
2
3.28
1
7
700
5
2.79
0
7
630
3
3.02
0
5
590
2
2.96
0
7
580
1
3.24
1
3
690
5
3.33
1
2
620
3
2.95
1
5
530
5
3.39
0
1
620
3
3.44
0
5
700
3
3.3
0
6
690
3
2.87
0
4
600
2
3.62
0
1
620
3
2.89
1
7
650
1
3.18
0
2
680
1
3.06
0
8
570
1
3.05
1
5
690
6
2.99
1
9
580
4
3.23
1
5
570
4
3.22
0
9
620
6
2.2
0
8
610
5
2.91
0
7
730
4
2.63
1
2
600
6
2.28
0
4
590
6
3.01
0
6
580
6
2.56
0
4
670
1
3.31
0
5
730
5
3.39
0
0
590
2
2.54
0
7
590
1
3.06
0
4
580
7
3.64
0
5
640
2
2.93
0
7
600
3
4.18
1
2
690
4
3.64
0
4
670
2
3.62
0
5
660
1
3.33
1
3
620
4
3.5
0
9
650
6
4.21
0
3
660
1
3.67
0
7
650
1
4.11
1
4
580
4
3.69
1
1
690
5
2.54
0
6
610
6
2.76
0
9
600
1
3.23
0
1
640
5
2.43
1
8
570
6
3.43
0
5
560
1
4.41
1
6
550
4
4.27
0
9
650
1

PredInt.xls

Page 12

Sheet: GPA
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115

PredInt.xls
3.21
2.83
3.59
2.34
3.8
4.08
3.92
2.9
3.18
3.81
2.92
3
2.7
2.44
3.67
2.98
3.58
2.97
3.06
3.45
4.22
2.53
3.24
3.01
3.1
3.74
3.63
3.7
3.4
2.54
3.39
3.71
2.99
3.95
3.14
4.12
3.63
3.33
3.01
3.2
2.86
3.28
3.34
3.34
3.23
3.4
3.16
2.57
3.88
3.94
3.3
3.69
2.55
3.83
3.15
4.64
3.16
3.96

0
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
1

5
5
4
4
5
1
2
2
7
0
7
4
5
9
5
4
2
5
0
9
4
6
8
1
7
6
7
5
6
7
7
6
4
1
7
4
9
4
9
6
8
2
5
5
1
4
5
3
2
0
6
4
9
7
7
4
4
5

620
630
580
650
600
620
620
600
640
680
640
680
670
560
560
690
610
540
650
730
690
660
560
640
650
640
580
570
660
600
620
610
570
670
590
560
670
660
630
630
500
590
640
620
590
720
720
510
620
660
660
670
600
550
580
720
640
610

2
1
1
2
2
4
1
1
1
2
3
1
2
3
1
5
2
2
2
5
4
2
1
6
3
1
1
4
5
3
1
2
4
2
1
4
2
1
3
1
4
6
3
6
1
2
5
2
6
4
6
1
3
3
2
6
5
4

Page 13

Sheet: GPA
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150

PredInt.xls
2.37
3.08
3.81
3.27
3.47
2.73
2.79
3.56
2.62
3.58
3.48
3.62
3.3
3.38
3.08
3.28
2.99
3.72
2.94
3.09
3.44
3.27
2.34
3.41
3.38
4.03
3.5
3.38
2.94
2.93
3.39
3.44
3.31
2.88
2.79

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
1

5
7
4
4
1
8
6
6
7
2
1
7
4
3
4
6
6
2
1
7
9
5
4
5
3
7
5
9
5
7
1
5
6
2
7

580
670
550
600
680
540
670
660
600
620
630
670
650
670
760
610
660
690
650
670
590
630
560
620
630
680
620
730
600
550
540
650
640
610
650

1
6
3
1
3
2
2
3
6
3
1
4
3
1
3
4
6
3
1
6
4
3
3
1
3
1
3
2
1
3
1
2
3
2
7

Page 14

246708887.xls.ms_office, Warning, p. 15 of 17

WARNING: YOU NEED TO ENABLE THE MACROS IN THIS FILE

Try these steps. If step 1 does not work, then go to step 2.
STEP 1: Try to enable the macros
For Excel 2007,
A. If you see the Security Warning in your menu bar, proceed with step B.
If the Security Warning is not there, go to STEP 2.
In
the Security Warning, Click Options.
B.
C. In the Alert Window that appears, click Enable This Content and click OK.

For Excel 2003,

A. Close this file. Then open it again.
B. In the window that appears, click Enable Macros.
If a window like this one
does NOT appear, then go to STEP 2.

STEP 2: If Step 1 does not work

If you DID NOT get a Security Message, then your security setting is too high.
Here is what you should do:
For Excel 2007,
A. Click the Microsoft Office Button at the top-left of the screen:
B. Click Excel Options.
C. Click Trust Center, then Trust Center Settings, and then Macro Settings.
D. Click Disable all macros with notification

246708887.xls.ms_office, Warning, p. 16 of 17
E. Exit from Excel. Closing the file is not enough. On the menu bar, select File, and then Exit.
F. Open this file again and follow the instructions in STEP 1 to enable the macros.
For Excel 2003,
A. On the menu bar at the top of this page, select Tools, then Macro, then Security.
B. On the Security Level tab, select Medium and click OK.
C. Then exit from Excel. Closing the file is not enough. On the menu bar, select File, and then Exit.
D. Open this file again and follow the instructions in STEP 1 to enable the macros.

246708887.xls.ms_office, Warning, p. 17 of 17