US Army Corps of Engineers

Hydrologic Engineering Center

HEC-4
Monthly Streamflow Simulation
User's Manual
February 1971
Approved for Public Release. Distribution Unlimited.
CPD-4
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1. REPORT DATE (DD-MM-YYYY)
February 1971
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Computer Program Documentation
3. DATES COVERED (From - To)
4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE
HEC-4
Monthly Streamflow Simulation
5a. CONTRACT NUMBER
5b. GRANT NUMBER
5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER
6. AUTHOR(S)
CEIWR-HEC
5d. PROJECT NUMBER
5e. TASK NUMBER
5F. WORK UNIT NUMBER
7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES)
US Army Corps of Engineers Institute for Water Resources
Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC)
609 Second Street Davis, CA 95616-4687
8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER
CPD-4
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12. DISTRIBUTION / AVAILABILITY STATEMENT
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES
14. ABSTRACT
This program will analyze monthly streamflows at a number of
interrelated stations to determine their statistical
characteristics and will generate a sequence of hypothetical
streamflows of any desired length having those characteristics.
The program will reconstitute missing streamflows on the basis
of concurrent flows observed at other location and will obtain
maximum and minimum quantities for each month and for specified
durations in the recorded, reconstituted and generated flows.
HEC-4 will also use the generalized simulation model for
generating monthly streamflows at ungaged locations based on
regional studies. There are many options for using the program
for various related purposes, and the program can be used for
other variables such as rainfall, evaporation, and water
requirements, alone or in combination.
15. SUBJECT TERMS
monthly streamflow, statistical analysis, hypothetical
streamflows, durations, simulation, ungaged locations, standard
deviation, skew coefficient, Pearson Type III, normal, HEC-4
16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF:
a. REPORT
U
b. ABSTRACT
U
c. THIS PAGE
U
17. LIMITATION OF
ABSTRACT
UU
18. NUMBER OF
PAGES
104
19a. NAME OF RESPONSIBLE PERSON
19b. TELEPHONE NUMBER
Standard Form 298 (Rev. 8/98) Prescribed by ANSI Std. Z39-18
HEC-4 Monthly Streamflow Simulation
Users Manual
February 1971
US Army Corps of Engineers Institute for Water Resources
Hydrologic Engineering Center 609 Second Street Davis, CA 95616
(530) 756-1104 (530) 756-8250 FAX www.hec.usace.army.mil
CPD-4
10 December 1984
Conditions of Use
The following conditions regulate the use of computer programs
developed by the Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC), Corps of
Engineers, Department of the Army.
1. The computer programs are furnished by the Government and are
accepted and used by the recipient individual or group entity
with the express understanding that the United States Government
makes no warranties, expressed or implied, concerning the
accuracy, completeness, reliability, usability, or suitability
for any particular purpose of the information or data contained
in the programs, or furnished in connection therewith, and that
the United States Government shall be under no liability
whatsoever to any individual or group entity by reason of any
use made thereof.
2. The programs belong to the United States Government.
Therefore, the recipient agrees neither to assert any
proprietary rights thereto nor to represent the programs to
anyone as other than Government programs.
3. The recipient may impose fees on clients only for ordinary
charges for applying and modifying these programs.
4. Should the recipient make any modifications to the
program(s), the HEC must be informed as to the nature and extent
of those modifications. Recipients who modify HEC computer
programs assume all responsibility for problems arising from, or
related to, those modifications. User support from the HEC to
third part recipients will only be provided after the second
party demonstrates that program difficulties were not caused by
their modifications.
5. This "Conditions of Use" statement shall be furnished to all
third parties that receive copies of HEC programs from the
recipient. Third party recipients must be notified that they
will not receive routine program updates, correction notices,
and other program services from the HEC unless they obtain the
program(s) directly from the HEC.
6. All documents and reports conveying information obtained as a
result of the use of the program(s) by the recipient, or others,
will acknowledge the Hydrologic Engineering Center, Corps of
Engineers, Department of the Army, as the origin of the
program(s).
co3 ONVT, P'UJ N; i-> VO 00--3 OWri Pr'UJ fO H
HEC-U
Paragraph
MOKTKLY STREAMFLOW SIMULATION
HTDROLOGIC ENGINEERING GENTES COMPUTER PROGRAM 723~X6~L23^0
COHTHTS
ORIGU OF PROGRAM HJRPOSE OF PROGRAM DESCRIPTIOH OF EQUIRMERC
METHODS OF CQMPTATIOM IHPT OUTHJT
OPERATING INSTRUCTIOMS DEFIKITIONS OF TERMS PROPOSED FUTURE
DEVELOPMETO
EXHZBITS
DETAILED EXPLMATIQN OF COMPUTER PROGRAM
DESCKIPTION OF CROTS METHOD
IKPUT EXAMPLE
OUTFUT EXAMPLE
DEFIHITIOHS
SOURCE PROGRAM
HJHJT DATA
SUMMA1Y OF REQUIRED CARDS
V85
HSGi-
MONTHLY STREAMFLCW SIMULATION
HYDROLOGIC .ENGINEERING CENTER COMPUTER PROGRAM 72.3-X6-L2.3iiO
1. ORIGIU OP PROGRAM
This program vas prepared in The Hydrologic Engineering
Center, Corps of Engineers. Up-to-date information and copies of
source statement cards for various types of computers can be
obtained from the Center upon reauest by Government and
cooperating agencies. Programs are furnished by the Government
and are accepted and used by the recipient upon the express
under- standing that the United States Government makes no
v/arranties, express,or implied, concerning the accuracy,
completeness, reliability, usability, or suitbility for any
particular purpose of the information and data contained in the
programs or furnished. in connection therewith, and the United
States shall be under no libility whatsoever to any person by
reason of any use made thereof.
The programs belong to the Government. Therefore, the
recipient further agrees not to assert any proprietary ri.ghts
therein or to represent the programs to anyone as other than a
Government program.
2. PURPOSE OF PROGRAM
This program will analyze monthly streamflows at a number o.f
inter- related stations to determine their statistical
characteristics and will generate a sequence of hypothetical
streamflows of any desired length having those characteristics.
It will reconstitute missing streamflows on the basis of
concurrent flows observed at other locations and will bbtain
mximum and mnimum quantities for each month and for specified
durations in the recorded, reconstituted and generated flows. It
will also use the generalized simulation model for generating
monthly streamflows at ungaged locations based on regional
studies. There are many options of using the program for various
related purposes
}
and it can be used for other variables such
as.rainfall, evaporation, and water requireraents, alone or in
corabination.
3. DESCRIPTION OF EQUIPMENT
This program requires a FORTRAN IV compiler, a random number
generator (function RUGEN included, see exhitit 2), and a fairly
large memory (6hK on the CDC 6600)= Provision is made for use of
three scratch tapes, 7 (for punched output)
f
8 and 9.
!<. METHODS OF COMPUTATION
a. In the statistical analysis portion of this program, the
flows for each calendar month at each station are first
incremented by 1 percent of their calendar-month average in
order to prevent infinite negative
logarithms. This increment is later subtracted. The mean,
standard deviation and skew coefficients for each station and
calendar month are then computed. This involves the follcwing
equations:
X.
X.
log (Q,
w
+ q,)
N
x,m x
2 x, /N
m=l
N
_ x.m x m=l
7

(1)
(2)
(3)
M
q *
N 2 (x -X )
3
/ ((N-l)(H-2)sJ)
w
_-j XjIE i
m=l
w
in which:
X = Logarithm of incrementad monthly flow
Q = Monthly recorded streamflow
q = Small increment of flow used to prevent infinite
logarithms

for months of zero flow
X = Mean logarithm of incremented monthly flows
N = Total, years of record
S = Unbiased. estimate of population standard
deviation
8 = Uribiased estimate of population skev coefficient
i
.
= Month number
m = Year number
b. For each station and month with incomplete record, a
seareh is made for longer records among the stations used, to
find that which will. contribute most toward increasing the
reliability of the statistics computed from the incomplete
record. The mean and standard deviation are then'adjusted.
Equation 5 is used to compute the equivalent record required to
obtain statistics equally reliable to these adjusted statistics
and is the basis for selecting the best record to be used in the
adjustment. Equations 6 and 7 are the adjustment equations.
3^ - X
1
Xg - x
g
) RSj/Sg
(6)
S
i -
S
1 =
(S
2 -
S
2
>
r2s
1
/S
2
(t)
The primes indcate the long-period vales and those without
primes are based on the same short period for both stations 1
and 2, and:
N = Length of record R = Linear correlation coefficient
c. Each individual flow is then converted to a normalized
standard variate, using the following approximation of the
Pearson Type III distribution:
t = Pearson Type III standard deviate K = Normal standard
deviate
d. After transforming the flows for all months and stations
to normal, the gross (simple) correlation coefficients R between
all pairs of stations
for each current and preceding calendar month are computed by
use of the following formula:
K.
t.

(9)
(8)

(io)
in which:
x
X - X
3
e, If there are insufficlent simultaneous observations of
any pair of variables to compute a required correlation
coefficient, that valu must be estimated. Each missing valu is
estimated by examining its relationship to related pairs of
vales in the current and preceding month bv use of the
following formula using i, and k subscripts to indicate
variables used in the gross correlation.
R. . = R. .R, . + J (1 - R, .
2
) (1 - R,
2
) (11)
xj kx lij - N Icx ' k.j '
Since, in order to be consistent -with the two related
correlation coefficients, the correlation coefficient must lie
between the Timits given by equation U, the lovest upper limit
and highest lower limit are established for all related pairs,
and the average of these two limits is taken as the estimated
correlation coefficient.
f. Monthly streamflows missing from the records of the
various stations are estimated for all stations for each month
in turn. Accordingly, when- ever a missing flow is being
reconstitutea, there always exists a valid valu for all.
stations already examined that month and for all remaining
stations in either the current or preceding month. For these
remaining stations, the current valu is selected where
available; otherwise the preceding valu is used. In order to
reconstitute the missing valu, a regression equation in terms
of normal standard variates is computed by selecting required
coefficients from the complete correlation matrix for that month
and solving by the Crout method (See exhibit 1), The missing
valu is computed from this regression equation, introducing a
random component equal to the nondeterc&nation of the equation,
as discussed i the streamflow generation procedure.
g It has been found that valid use of the regression
technique requires that all correlation coefficients agree with
the data that will be substituted into the equations and. that
the correlation coefficients be mutually consistent.
Inconsistency in the correlation coefficients causes the
dependent variable to be over-defined and is evidenced by a
determination coefficient greater than 1.0. If this occurs
(because of incomplete data), the independe nt variable
contributing least to the correlation is dropped, and a new
regression equation is computed. This process is repeated as
necessary until consistency is reached (which must occur by the
time that only one independent variable reraains). In order to
malee the correlation matrix consistent with the data matrix,
all. affected correlation coefficients are recomputed after each
estimate of missing data.
h. Normal standard deviates are then converted to flows by
use of the following equations;
t.
x,m

(12)
X.
i,m
X + t. S.
i,m a
(13)
i,m
Au.ti.log X. - q.
d4)
imposing the constraint:
i. When the set of flovrs is complete, all correlation
matrices should he consistent except for truncation errors in
the computer, since the data arrays are complete. Any
consistency of matrices btained in this manner or of matrices
read into the computer will result in determi.nation
coefficients greater than 1.0. If this occurs, consistency of
each correlation matrix is assured by first testing all
combinations of triads of correlation coefficients in the
current and preceding month for all calendar months using
equation 11 and raising the lowest of the three coefficients to
obtain a consistent triad. The test of consistency of each
complete matrix is ma.de by recomputing the mltiple correlation
coefficient. If this valu is greater than 1.0, further
adjustment is required. Such further adjust- ment is btained by
introducing a coefficient, successively smaller by
0.2, on the radical in equation 11 and repeating all triad
consistency tests unt.il all matrices are consistent. If
consistency is not reached, coefficients in each inconsistent
matrix are moved tovard the average valu of all coefficients in
that matrix until consistency is reached.
j. Generation of hypothetical streamflows is accomplished by
computing a regression equation, by the Crout method (described
in exhibit 1.) for each station and month and then computing
streamflows for each station in turn for one month at a time
using the following equation. This process is started with
average vales (zero deviation) for all stations in the first
month and discarding the first 2 years of generated flows.



Z
(16)
5
in which:
K = Monthly flow logarithm, expressed as a normal
standard deviate
3 - Beta coefficient computed from correlation matrix
i = Month number
j = Station number
n = Number of interrelated stations
R = Mltiple correlation coefficient
Z = Random number from normal standard population
k. Mximum, minimum and average flows are btained for the
entire period of flows as recorded and for specified periods of
reconstituted and generated flows by routine search technique.
1. Provision is also included in this program for use of the
generalizad model requiring only k generalized coefficients for
each station (in place of 8) and one generalized correlation
coefficient (in place of 12) for each pair of stations, in
addition to identification of wet and dry seasons for each
station. These are defined as follows:
(1) The average valu of mean logarithms of flows for the
wet season (3 months). This valu plus 0.2 is applied to the
middle month and the average minus 0.1 is applied to the other 2
months.
(2) The average valu of mean logarithms of flows for the
dry season (3 months). This is applied to all 3 dry months. Mean
logarithms for months between dry and wet seasons are
interpolated linearly.
(3) The average standard deviation for all 12 months.
This is applied to each of the .12 months.
(4) The average serial correlation coefficient for all 12
months. This valu minus *15 (but not less than zero) is applied
to each vet-season month, and the valu plus .15 (but not more
than .98) is applied to each dry-season month. The average valu
is applied to all intermedate months.
(5) The average interstation correlation coefficient for
all 12 months is applied to each month for that pair of
stations.
m Because of limitations in computer memory size and because
of increasing change of computational instbility with larger
matrices, the number of stations usable simultaneously in this
program has been limited to 10. However, the program can
reconstitute and generate streanrflows for
6
any number o:f stations in groups of 10 or less. It will
ordi.nari.ly be desirble to include one or more stations from
earlier groups in each successive group in order to preserve
important correlations. In addition to providiag flow data for
all stations, it is necessary to desi.gnate NPASS and to follow
each group of flow data with a standard- format card with NSTX
(number of stations in next pass that were ais o used in
preceding passes) and station identification numbers for those
stations - These numbers must be listed in the same sequence as
their data were arranged in earlier passes. Data for the new
stations for the new pass should then be read. None of these
flows can occur in a year later than the latest year for which
flow data occurred in the first pass.
n. As soon as flows are reconstituted for any pass, they are
read onto the flow tape. After statistics are computed from
transformed reconstituted flows, they are read Onto the
statistics tape (after identification of stations in the pass
for future reference). Final regression equation data for each
pass are read onto the same tape at the same time (for use in
generation later). For each new pass, the flow and statistics
tapes are searched separately for data for those stations
already used that also occur in the new pass. In order to read
and write intermittently and alternatively on the same tapes, it
is necessary to keep track of tape records so as to assure that
any read statement does not read beyond the record mark and so
that new write statements occur at the end of all previous write
statements that are to be saved.
o. Once that statistics are put on tape, they are retained
throughout the reconstitution and generation processes. Flows,
however, are saved only for the set of data in which they were
reconstituted or generated, unti.1 the last pass for that set is
completed. In the generation process, it is necessary to save
the last flow generated for each station in one set for use as
the antecedent flow in starting generation in the next set.
These are saved in the QSTAP array with sbscript ISTAP.
5. MPUT
Input is summarized in exhibits 7 and 8. Data are entered
consecu- tively on each card using a simple variety of formats
to simplify punching and handling cards. Computed and generated
flows cannot be 1,000,000 units or larger, and consequently must
be expressed in units that cannot exceed this magnitude. Units
should be indicated on one of the 3 header cards. Column 1 of
each card is reserved for card identification. These are ignored
by the computer except for the A in column 1 of the first header
card, which is used to identify the first data card. An example
of input is given in exhibit 3. Certain inadequacies of data
will abort the job and waste input cards until the next card
with A in column 1 is reached. A card with A in column 1
followed by U blank cards causes the computer to stop.
7
5. OUTPUT
Printed output includes key input Information for ,job
Identification and all resilts of computations. Generated flows
are put on magnetic tape, and computed statistics are punched on
cards in the format usable later by the program. An example of
printed output is given in exhibit b .
T. OPERATING ItSTRCTIONS
Standard FORTRAN 3^V instructions and random number generator
are required. No sense svitches are used.
8. DEFINITIONS OF TERMS
Trras used in the program are defined in exhibit 5 .
9. PROPOSED FIJTURE DEVELOPMENT
There are cases vhere the model used herein does not reproduce
historie al droughts with reasonble frequeney. Consequently,
the model is under continuous study and development. It is
reauested that any user who finds an inadequacy or desirable
addition or modification notify The Hydrologic Engineering
Center.
EXHIBXI 1
DETAILED EXPLMATIOK OF ,
COMPUTER PROGRAM
GE1ERAL
Much of the program. is explained by comment cards and
definitions of variables. Supplementary explanation follows,
referring to sections identified with the indicated letter in
column 2 of a comment card.
SECTION A
Correlation coefficients, R, and beta coefficients, B, are in
double precisin for matrix inversin computation, in order to
minimize computa- tional instabili'ty. Correlation coefficient,
RA, as originally computed and stored, may be defined in single
precisin. For oomputers with word length smaller than 32 bits,
many other variables in this program should be in double
precisin.
When dimensions are changed, the corresponding variable
(starting with K) should be changed accordingly, as these are
used to prevent exceedence of dimensions. If an excessive
subscript is used, the ,iob will be dumped. until a card with A
in column 1 is encountered, at which time a new Job is automat
ical.ly started. If 5 blank cards (with an A in column 1 of the
first) are encountered, the run -will be terminated.
Job specification cards are read in this section.
SECTION B
NSTAX is number of columns in correlation matrix. These
consist of NSTA columns for the current-month vales and a
similar number for ante- cedent-month vales. HSTAA is initial
column nuiriber for antecedent-month coefficients. These are
computed from NSTA^ which is read in if statistics are to be
provided, rather than computed from raw data.. If raw data are
to be used, NSTA is defined in the program later and NSTAA and
NSTA must be also. Data for each new pass are processed after
transferring back to statement k2. In the multipass operation,
USTX is the number of stations used from previous passes and
ISTXX i.s the subscript of the first new station for the
current pass. Station identification for the NSTX stations must
be in the order in which data for those stations were originally
used, because search of data and statistics on tape is made in
this order. Flows for these stations are read from tape IQTAP,
and corresponding statistics from tape ISTAT. Variables LQTAP
and LSTAT are used to keep track of tape position for sbsequent
writing.
^Provided through the cooperation of the Texas Water
Development Board.
EXHIBI! 1
Months are identified consecutively by the variable M starting
with the month preceeding the first year of data. Some
quantities to be accumulated are initialized. Station
combination data are stored for the purpose of obtaining
mximums and minimums (section D) of weighted flow vales later.
Tndem stations are identified for cases where a check on
consistency of generated quantities is deemed appropriate.
Station identification numbers are set to a large number so they
wi.ll not be undefined. The flow array is filled with -.1 vales
to indicate missing vales. For each station and calendar month,
the total flow and number of recorded vales are computed for
computing a flow increment and other statistics later. The
mnimum, flow for each station month is also computed in order
to avoid negative logarithms later.
SECTION C
Station data can be read in random order. Stations are
identified by subscri.pt in the order in which data for each
station are first read.
The year subscri.pt is computed. Negative subscripts will occur
if data are for years earlier than the starting year indicated
on B card, and data for these are rejected, with diagnostic
printout. The stations are counted and the flows for each month
at each station are counted for the purpose of computing
frequency statistics later. If the number of stations or years
exceeds its dimensin lim.it, the job is aborted. The number of
stations is permanently stored in the NSTNP array for later
identification in multipass operations. The remainder of this
section is self explanatory, except to state that permanent
identification station numbers are given for stations in
comb.inati.onj for tndem stations, and for consistency-test
stations, and subscripts are identified for rapid computation
later.
SECTION D
In this section, mximum and minimum recorded flows for each
calendar month , the water year and for durations of 1, 6, and
51*. months, and average flows are computed for each station and
combination. Durations do not span a breis in any record.
Quantities are rounded off and printed in fixed-point format.
SECTION E
The logarithm transform of flows is accomplished here. Missing
vales are indicated by an impossibly large number (the -1 used
for missing flows is a reasonble logarithm and therefore cannot
be used for missing logarithms). Before the log transform, the
average flow for each calendar month at each station is computed
and one ( constrained to a minimum of 0.1 flow unit) is added to
each flow. If the minimum bserved flow for that station month
is negative, that absolute valu
2
EXHIBIT 1
is also added before the transform. After the logarithm
transform, frequency statistics for each calendar month and
station are computed.
An increment needed to convert the logarithms to an
approximately normal distribution is also computed as an
altemative future transform. Logarithms to the base 10 are used
so that statistics are comparable to other commonly used
statistics. A variable IRC Ol is set to 1 if any missing vales
are encountered, so that the flow reconstitution routine will be
called later. A variable HTDC is set to 1 if the first approxi-
mation of increments causes any one of the skew coefficients to
be smaller than 0.1 or larger than 0.1. In an optional routine
that follows, the increment for each station and calendar month
is adjusted individually and iteratively (up to 14 triis) until
skew is within 0.1 of zero.
Stations with less than three years of data for any calendar
month are deleted, since skew and correlation courputations
require at least three Items of data.
SECTION F
Correlation matrices are computed here for the purpose of
adjusting frequency statistics for short-record stations. All
correlation coefficients are first set to -4.0 in order to
identify those not computed later for lack of sufficient
observed data. Then accumulations of the various quantiti.es
required are computed for all tems above the main diagonal in.
the correlation matrix for each month, using all data common to
the two stations involved. If more than two items of data are
avail- able, the correlation coefficients are computed.
Coefficients for the main diagonal are set to 1.0, and those
below the main diagonal are set equal to their symmetrical
element. Coefficients between the current and preceding month's
vales are similarly computed.. These items con- stitute an
extensin of the matrix to the right, which doubl.es its size,
and the new portion is not necessarily symmetrical. Similar
complete arrays of average vales and root-mean-sauare vales
for only those log- arithms common to each pair of stations are
found for later use in adjusting statistics.
A search is then made to determine the station that would be
most useful in adjusting statistics for station months with
incomplete record, and the means and standard, deviations are
adjusted in accordance with the following equations:
s
i =
s
i
+
n -
s
2
)
e
V
s
2

^ + (x - X
2
) RS
:i
/S
2

where primes indcate long-period, vales, subscripts are 1 for
the short- record station and 2 for the long-reeord station and,
3
EXHIBIT 1
X = mean logarithm
S = standard deviation of the logarithms R = correlation
coefficient.
An optional check of consistency of standard deviations
between adjacent stations for the same month is next made. This
is to assure that frequency curves do not cross within three
standard deviations from the mean. If there is a conflict, the
standard deviation of that station designated in the input data
as the dependent variable is modi- fied accordingly. All
frequency statistics are then printed out.
SECTION G
All flows are next standardized by subtracting the mean and
dividing by the standard deviation for the month and station. An
approximate Pearson Type III transform is then applied as
follows:
K = 6 [(.5 gt + l)
1
/
3
- l] /g + g/6
where:
K = normal standard deviate
t = Pearson Type III standard, deviate
g = skew coefficient
New correlation matrices are then computed, based on the
normalized variates and using the same standard procedures
previously employed for correlating logarithms. The sign of the
correlation coefficient is preserved, since the coefficient will
be used to establish regression equations. Correlation
coefficients are set to zero if the variance of either variable
approximates zero, since the computation of the coefficient is
highly unstable and since its use would be of little valu.
SECTION H
, For jobs where correlation data are given, the portion of
the correlation matrix bove the main diagonal for all months
and the entire correlation matrix relating current and preceding
month's vales are read, with a different card for each pair of
stations.
Vales for all 12 months are contained on one card, and the two
stations involved are identified on the same card. An automatic
check is made to assure that cards are in the required order of
columns and rows in the correlation matrix. When generalized
statistics are used., only one correlation coefficient for the
entire year is read, but card order is the same. Symmetrical
elements be'low the main diagonal are then filled in and vales
ai 1.0 are placed in the main diagonal.
h
EXHIBIT 1
Frequency statistics are then read, k cards per station, with
12 monthly vales and station identi.ficati.ons on each card. A
check is made of the station order, to assure proper
subscripting. When gen- eralized statistics are used, only one
card per station is read, and this contains the mximum and
mnimum mean logarithms and the average standard deviation for
the year. The months of mximum and mnimum mean logarithms are
also read and converted to corresponding subscripts. These
subscripts will differ from the calendar month number if the
year used in the study does not begin with January.
SECTION I
This section searches for each calendar month the entire
correlation matrix to be the right of the main diagonal for
misiing correlation coef- ficients due to the nonexisten.ee of
at least three years of simultaneous data for the month. As soon
as a coefficient between two variables is identified as missing,
a search of the correlation matrix is made to find established
correlation coefficients between each of these variables (i and
j) and any other variable (k). The range within which
correlation between the two variables must lie in order to be
mathematically consistent with the correlation with the third
variable is established by use of the following equation:
As each successive third variable with established correlation
coefficients is found, the upper limit of ^j i is constrained
to the lowest of all upper limits computed, and the lower limit
is constrained to the highest of all such lower limits computed.
When the entire matrix has been searched. the correlation
coefficient is estimated as the average of these two constrained
limits. If this element is above the main diagonal, the valu is
also entered for the element symmetrically across the main
diagonal. The search for further missing correlation
coefficients is then continuad.
Where a correlation matrix is not to be used for
reconstituting data but might be inconsistent, a triad
consistency test can be made in this section. This is done by
examining all groups of three related correlation coefficients,
and testing the lowest one to determine whether it is abo ve
mnimum constraint established by the equation in the preceding
station.
If not, it is raised to that mnimum. When this is done, it is
possible that the adjusted coefficient had already been used in
another triad, test, and consequently that previous test would
need to be repeated.. In order to do this properly, the entire
matrix is searched up to 12 NSTA times, where NSTA is the number
of stations, until a complete search reveis no inconsistent
triad (INDC = o).

SECTION J
EXHIBIT 1
A. coefficient PAC of the radical in the equation is used. in
order to obtairi complete matrix consistency in difficult cases,
whenever nossible by this means, A test for overall consistency
is made in section, K, and if this fails, FAC is successively
reduced by 0=2
un til overa.]] consistency is reached*
ECTION K
The test for overall consistency of the correlation matrix for
each month is made by constructing for each station the
correlation matrix that would be used in flow gene.ra.tion for
that station and com- puting the mltiple determination
coefficient. If the determination coefficient of the matrix for
any station and any month exceeds 1.0, all correlation matrices
must be reexaminad., since some coefficients are ccmmon to two
or more matrices. This is done by reducing FAC in the triad test
(section J) by 0.2 and repeating all triad tests. If FAC i,s
reduced to zero and consistency is not btained, an ndex of NCB
is set to 1 and an averaging routine is used for each.
inconsistent matrix. A quantity SUM is computed as the average
of al.1 correlation coefficients
i.n that matrix, and each element is modified by multiplying SUM
by the excess of determination coefficient and adding this
product to the product of the complement of this multiplier and
the valu of the element in the inconsistent matrix. The
averaged or smoothed vales are replaced in the complete matrix
for the month, and this requires some careful manipulation of
subscripts. A new computation of determination coefficient is
made and the smoothing process is repeated up to nine times
until consistency prevails. If this does not occur, the iob is
terminated. When consistency is established all complete
matrices are orinted out and essential elements are punched if
desired.
SECTION L
In reconstituting missing data, a search is made for each
month of record starting with the first for stations that have
no record during that month (Q=T). When one is found, a search
of all other stations is made to determine whether recorded or
previously reconstituted flows exist for the current month or,
if not, for the preceding month. If one is Tound, it will
constitute an independent variable for estimating the missing
valu, and its valu and pertinent correlation coefficients are
stored in new arrays for computation purposes. The correlation
coefficients with the dependent variable is temporarily stored
in the NVAR (KSTA+l) column to assure that coefficients relating
independent variables which have sufficient array space (they
cannot exceed, NSTA in number). A variable ITEMP counts the
number of independent variables (stations for which recorded or
reconstituted data are available). It is incremented after its
set of correlation coefficients are stored in the R array, and
is finally used to relocate the correlation coefficients
involving the dependent variable. If no independent variables
with data
6
EXHIBIT 1
are found, as can happen in the first month of record, a
correlation is made with the preceding valu for the same
station and that preceding valu is arbitrarily set at the
average for the month. The regression equation and determination
coefficient are then computed using subroutine CROTJT The
variable having the lowest absolute valu of correlation with
the dependent variable is identified, and beta coefficients are
searched in order to eliminate all unreasonable coefficients. In
the usual case where the simple correlation coefficient between
any variable and the dependent variable is positive,
unreasonable coefficients are assumed to be those larger than
1.5 or smaller than -.5. In the case where the variable
correlates negatively with the dependent variable, the reason-
able range is 1.5 to 0.5- If an unacceptble coefficient is
found, INDC is set to 1. If this happens or if the determination
coefficient does not lie between 0 and 1.0, the variable with
the smallest correlation ' coefficient is eliminated, the
correlation array reconstructed accordingly, and the regression
equation recomputed. This process is repeated until all required
conditions exist. The missing v,alue is then computed by use of
the regres si. on equati on and adding a rand om component
nonnally distributed with zero mean and with vari anee equal to
the error variance of the regression equation.
As soon as the missing valu is estimated a search is made for
all established vales in the current and preceding month with
which it is to be correlated, and sums of logarithms, squares,
and cross produces are incremented in preparation for
recomputing all affected correlation coefficients. After
checking for sufficient (three years) record and nonze.ro
variance, the correlation coefficient is recomputed. If the
standard deviation of either variable is very small, the
correlation coefficient is set to zero. If the coefficient is
above the main diagonal of the correlation matrix, its valu is
also assigned to symmetrical element. Since estimation of a
missing valu affeets correlation coefficients between variables
in the current and following month, which coefficients are
stored in a different matrix, this process of adjusting the
correlation coefficient is applied to those vales next.
SECTION M
After all flows are reconstituted, the flow tape is read until
the proper position for writing the newly computed flow data on
that tape is reached, and headings are printed for writing flows
on the printer later. Then the standard deviates are converted
to flows by reversing the Pearson type III transform,
multiplying by the standard deviation, adding to the mean and
taking the antilogrithm. The increment is then subtracted anfl
if the resulting valu is negative for a variable with zero
lower limit, it is set to zero. In the case of reconstituted
flows, the Pearson Type III transform is constrained so that the
excess of the standard deviate over and bove 2.0 is multiplied
by a mximum of 0.3 (if the standard
7
EXHIBI! 1
diviation exceeds 0.3). This simply prevents btaining
unreasonably extreme vales due to sampling errors. It is a
moderation of the extrapolation rather than an abrupt
truncation.
The test for tndem station consistency is next made, and
inconsistent flows are identified for printout and changed to
the limit of consistency. The downstream flow is made consistent
with the sum of upstream flows. Flows are punched on cards
;
if
desired, printed out, and written on the flow tape for use in
future passes. NQTAP is incre- mented and represents the total,
nuniber of records on the tape.
SECTION N
After converting devi.ates to flows , the frequency statistics
are recomputed in order to agree accurately with observed and
reconstituted data. If a consistency test is called for, the
variable ITRNS is set to 2 and computation is transferred to
near the end of section F, where the test is made and the
transfer index causes a return to this portion of the program.
Adjusted statistics are printed, and the consistent correlation
matrix is printed (and, if desired. also punched) by transfer to
section K, using ITRNS as a return indicator again. The
statistics are then punched, if desired. Flows for the specified
station combina- tions are then computed
SECTION 0
Mximum and minimum recorded flows are computed by transfer to
section S
?
using ITRNS=1 as a return indicator. The variable ITMP
keeps a record of the remaining years whose mximum and minimum
flows have not been searched yet.
Next, generalized statistics are computed, if desired, (if
IGNRL equals two). As indicated, straight averages of all 12
monthly correlation coefficients in every category are taken.
Means are averaged for the three wettest consecutive months and
the three driest consecutive months and the seasonal timing
noted. Standard deviations for all 12 months are averaged.
Generalized statistics are then printed out.
Next, generalized statistics read in section H are used to
compute required arrays of statistics. Skew and increments are
set to zero.
The mean for the middle month of the wet season is .2 higher
than the wet season average and means for the other two months
are .1 lower.
Means for the dry seasons are uniform, and means for the
transition seasons are interpolated linearly. Correlation
coefficients for the dry season are .15 higher (constrained
below .98) than the annual average, and those for the wet season
are .15 lew (constrained above zero). All of these opera tions
are in accord with the generalized model developed in HEC.
8
EXHIBIT 1
SECTION P
After obtaining monthly statistics and correlation matrices,
regression equations for each station and calendar month are
computed.
Flows are generated in the station o:rder in which data or
statistics are read and are generated for each month at all
stations before proceeding to the next month. Flows at each
station are correlated with flows of the antecedent month at
that station and at all stations for which the current month's
flows have not yet been generated. For other stations, flows for
the current month are used.
Regression equations are computed in subroutine CROUT. If any
correlation matrix formed is inconsistent (which should not
occur at this stage, except for truncation of computated
intermedate variables), a transfer to section J is effected,
and consistency operations performed on all correlation
matrices. After such a transfer, all regression equations must
be recomputed, since any correlation coefficient might have
changed. After this, only the beta and alienation coefficients
need be retained, in addition to the frequency statistics. In
the multi- pass operation, these are all written on tape ISTST
at this point.
SECTION Q
A routine for projecting historical sequences into the future
is employed here. Vales of QPREV (previous months deviate) for
each station is determined as the transform of the flow for the
month preceding the first month specified (by input data) to be
generated. The variable MA is computed for the subscript of Q
that conforms to the first month of projected flows. If the
projected flow routine is not to be used, the computer is next
set up to generate two years of flows, at the end of which
synthetic sequences will have a virtually random start.
In the multipass operation, stations are identified and all
necessary statistics are contained in the order needed on tape
ISTAT. In any pass after the first, flows generated in earlier
passes for the same period (the same sequence of data) must be
read from tape IQTAP, and this tape must be rewound before each
pass in order to permit a complete search. In any sequence after
the first, the preceding flow for the first month to be
generated is the last flow in the preceding sequence for that
station, and these are saved in the QSTAP array for multipass
operation. If the multipass feature is not used., all necessary
statistics and flows for generating are in memory.
SECTION R
In starting to generate flows, a variable JXTMP is used to
identify the year number of the first year of each sequence in
the mu.tipass
9
EXHIBIT 1
operation. Variables AVG and SDV are used to compute the mean
and standard deviation of the deviates for each flow sequence.
These are later used to adjust all deviates so that the means
and standard deviations in every generated. sequence vi11 be the
same as those of the historical sequence.
Variables JA and NJ are set up to correspond to the first and
last year of generation in each successive sequence, depending
on the type of operation. MA has already been set up as the
subscript of Q corresponding to the first month of flows to be
generated (for use in pro.jecting historical flows recorded to
the current time).
QPREV for each station has been identified as the previous
month's flow for that station. Flows are then generated for each
station, using stored regression equations and a random
component. Each generated flow is immediately entered into the
QPREV array, because its preceding flow wi.ll never again be
used in that pass.
In the multipass routine, flows (as deviates) are written on
tape at the end of each pass, and the last flow for each station
is stored in the QSTAP array for use in. the next sequence.
If more than 19 years (an arbitrarily selected length) of flow
are being generated in any sequence, deviates are adjusted so
that their mean i.s zero and variance 1.0. Their uadjusted mean
and standard deviation are printed. Then they are transformad to
flows, and, if ealled for, consistency tests between stations
are made. For variables with zero natural limit, a check for
negative vales is then made. Flows are then printed and, if
desired, punched. Flow combinations are then computed.
SECTION S
Before computing mximum and minimum vales of generated
flows, a positive valu of JX is looked for to assure that flows
generated are not to be discarded (the first two years generated
for a random start). Aiso, at least NYMXG years must have been
generated before mximum and minimum vales are computed (this
applies only when the number of years remaining for generation
in. the last sequence does not equal NYMXG). Mximum sums are
initiated. at an extremely large negative number and minimum
sums as an extremely large positive number (T). Then a routine
search of flow sums for the specified durations at each station
is made for the sequence, and results are printed out. Since
this routine is used for reconstituted flows as well as for
generated flows, a transfer indicator is used to determine
whether the next step is back to the reconstitution routine or
the generation routine. If the latter, a check is made for the
multipass routine. If all passes are not completed, a transfer
to section Q is made. If all passes are eompleted. for this
sequence or if the multipass routine is not being
1.0
EXHIBIT 1
used, a check is made of remaining years to be generated. If
greater than zero, a transfer to section Q is made after
adjusting years yet to be generated. Otherwise the job is ended
and a new .3ob, if any, is started.
RANDOM NUMBER FUNCTION ENGEN
This random number function is for a binary machine and the
constants muse be computed according to the number of bits in an
integer word. The numbers generated are uniformly distributed in
the interval 0 to 1.
The function is called from the main program by a statement
similar to the following:
A = RNGEN (IX)
Where A is some floating point variable ame and IX is some
inceger variable ame The argument ame IX ned not be the same
in the main program and the function. The argument must be
initialized to zero in the main program. The location of the
initializing statement is important and depends on the results
desired. If it is desired to have different sets of random
numbers for each of several different sets of computations
(jobs) that are run sequentially on the same program, then the
argument must be intialized at the very begnning of the
program and never reinitialized. If it is permissible to use the
same sequence of random numbers for each job, the argument must
be intialized at the beginning of each job. The advantage of
this latter option occurs when one of the jobs must be re-run
for some minor reason as the same random numbers will be used
and the results will be comparable. .
Three constants must be computed by the following equations:
Constant one (C.1) = + 3
Constant two (C2) = 2^ -1
Constant three (C3) ** 1./2.
Where: B = number of bits in an integer word The constants for
some of the common computers are listed in the following table:
SIZE OF
INTEGER CONSTANTS
COMPUTER WORD C1 C2 C3
GE 200 Series 19 1.027 524287 0.190734863K-05
GE 400 Series 23 4099 8388607 0.119209290K-06
IBM 360 Series 31 65539 2.147483647 0.465661287E-09
IBM 7040 and 35 262147 34359738367 0.2910383046E-10
7090 Series

UNIVAC 1108 1 1 U M TI
CDC 6000 Series 48 16777219 281474976710655 0.3552713678E-14
11
EXHIBIT 1
April 1960
EXHIBIT 2 Crout's Hethod
One of the best methods for solving systems of linear eqmtlons
on desk calculating mohines was developed by P D. Crout in
19^1.
This method is based on the eliminstion method, vitk the
calcula,tions arrsaged in ^rstematic order so as to faciltate
their accomplisiment on a desk calcillator* In this method the
coefficients and cotssteat tms f the equations are written in
th@ fozas of a mtrix
f
" which is a reetaagialsr arsay of
fassitities sxxasged in rew md colisas
The method is best explained by an exEple
k
Suppose ttet in a
mltiple correlation an&lysis it is reqrdred to solve the
follotring system of linear equations to obtain the tmknown -
vales of b. b,* b. at b
5
. 2 5 4
<
2
\ -f
&
2
X
5
b
5 +

\ +

b
5
.


\ + 2
*3 3
+

\ + s*j*5 b
5
. a^ij

b
2 + *3*4 j +

\ + ^*3
b
5 *

=*2*
5
2 + 2*5*5
b
5

JS^lj + H
b
S ' Vi
For simplicity lt -as replac the coefficients of th@ b
!
by th
lettere p> f r and b, and the constant tenas by the letter t
using subscripts
1, 2, 3 and k to denote the respective equations*.
*1
b
2 +

+
r
l\ +
s
l
b
5 " *1
P
2
b
2
+ 2
b
3

r
2 \ +
s
2 *5 ' *2
Pj*
2
+
4
3
b
3 +
r
3 \ +
s
3
b
5 * *3
I^
2
+ 14 *3 +
r
4 \ + 4^ -

A continuis eheok on the computa tions as they progrese may be
btained by adding to the matrix of the above system a colujan
of us* such that u-p + q + r+ s + t. The matrix and check
colman are written as followss
EXEZBI5) 2

ti
r
i
\
S
1 *1

p
2
t
2

r
2 \
S
2
t
2
U
2
% fj. *3^
s
3 s

* %
r
k
s
4 \

Th@ q.g
3
and form the "principal diagonal" of
the mtris Essaain&tioa of the original eqmtierna shows that the
co- &ff@mta are &$maetrie&l about the principal diagonal, i
a

as

q p ,
r
l
s p
3 *2 *3*
S
1
P
V 2
Md s
3
13
*V
fhis is tetmetariati f th ^stsia of equations to be solved
in aay mltiple eor^latioa, aaal^rsiaa tesas of this sysasetiy,
the eoaputa- tioas a$ eonsidembly aia^lifis. Whil the Crout
jasthed maj be used t ssXt aay sjstsm of linear equations the
computa tional steps given h@2 as applioabl only to those
sdth sjimaetrical coefficients
Sha sol&tion soasia ts f two parte
s
viz
a t
ths computa ti on
of a
8!
&@2iif@d tris
9
' a&d ti "baok solutioa. Let the derivad
matrix b^ @ntd as follonas
P
1 \
E
1
S
1 \
P
2 ^2
H
2
S
2
T
1 *1
T
2 *2

3 3 3.
S
3 *3 *3

\ % \ %

\
2
EXHU3IT 2
1 *
H Pa
H
*
i
I
WS
A4
Al
+
I
!


$
<H

I
8*^
@
evj
Pm
A.
8
rl*
B
iH8 c 4 J P)
a
r*-}
aidT
1

H
<H
t
r-4g r U 1 P,
H
ef
1

r~ r-f CJ< I P<
H
r-3
O?
cTIcf
B
of
<
0
<r
oF
}

of*
e
f)
GP
pfl
rfP
rfl
* r
Of 4 B
-'I
64
^loT
1

0
C\J
m
pf
8
a
d?
pfoT
03
4"
1*4
tf*
t*s
p-
F
oT
i
nr\
14
H
T
oT)
fc
1

s
W\
&
CM
fc>
r
&3>
mi) p~3 * (A! O?
s
. 1
*r
SA
6-4
oof
1

- \
s
3
- V2 ~
p
4
s
l
d
5
i
X
A H
n 51
as
4
H
o
S ?a o> p
89
5
M
9
O 4
n s
y **
i
*1
o
i
t
t

a
-H
4
5
J
*
V
o
o
p
^ s ? ** JT
|S
%-i ^ o
o

w
S i5
'-'Qi
di -w
*1, t
K i 8~
w
; -late*"*!*-
fflljl?!
4S|*^H f*|J
11| SI 1 I |5 ig

3
S|^I
*
I I* ~!JH "-
-H^S . . & | S
g ,j r5 M
51 5 8*4.
0,
l^'
s

hmS
Hs
ss
l ^'1**13
iiiliH
O ^ -P H grl^
h & * .-s
5
8
g 13! *-s s, i
-SfiniS***
es
R
0
1ii
(k) Whe the elsffianta in the (n+l) column and their
spsmetrical ceunterparts hav been xacorded the (n-f-l)fe row
will fe completa seept QT tixa last two elsasnts whic ar
nert computad. Such aa element (X) fiials th eorrsspoadiag
leasent of the giwn matrix almas the produet f tk-a lm&ni
irasdiatslj aboye (X) ^ the elsmt ism@diatelj to th left of
the principal diagonal in the ssss row as (X), mimas th prodnct
f tke sed les&at abov (X) hj the @es lamsat to th left
of tha principal diagonal in the sama row as (X), ato. all
divid4 fcy th afesis of tfcs principal diagonal in the tw as
(X)
s

Tke eheok eoltmn () of ths derivad matris: serves; as a
continuaus oteek w& th. eoaputations in that each. sisment in
the column eljala a plus the sasa of the elementa in the same
row to the right of the principal diagonal
9

s
i*
T
i

is,
i - 1 + Q
1
+ ^ +
U
2 * 1 + Hg + Sg
+
_ -

3 5 5
\ 1 * T
4

fhia k@@k akoal be issds. after og*l&tiB? aa-ah row*
The elsffisata of the derdbf-ed jaatrix to th right of th
principal diagonal form a System of equations which mj now be
used to compute th uaknoMi vales of lo^, Toy b^ and b,- by
successiv substitution*
This is knotm as the "b&ck solution."- Tha coaputatiogLS are as
followss
*5 - \

- *3 -

b
3 - -
T
2 -^5 -h\
*2 "
T
1 -
Sjbj
-h\
V>3
It is verj important that the computations be carried to a
suffi- ciant mabsr of digits, both in computing th eoefficients
and constant tsi3 of the original eqmtions, and in computing
th eleaents of the d@riv& mtrix. It is possible for ralatively
small errors in the cosfficieats and constant terms of the
original equations to result in relativaly larg errors in the
coiaputed solutins of the unknoims 3?h
EXHIBIT 2
grestest souroe of error in compatiag tfes elsse&tg of the
ertve&:a&iTix arises from the loss of leading rsignifioasat
digits by gubtraetion. fflais aust be gmrfed agaisst and can be
done by carzyiag th cojapstatios i mor figures than the
data* As a gsmml rule It is reBEsesd that the coefficients
and constant fceim of the original rjmtionE be oarris to a
sufficient nmbar of deoimls to prouoe at least five sigaifioaat
digits i the smalleet qmntity, and that th elemants f ths
derived matrix b carried to one mor deeisal than this* but to
not less than six sipaifieant digits
5
EXHIBIT 2
A TEST DATA - 723-X6-L2340
A MONTHLY STREAMFLOW SIMULATION - NOV 1970
A STANDARD ANALYSIS ANO GENERATION
t 1904
r i

10 1 5 10 5 1

i
D 3
107 110 111

E 3

1. 1 o 1

H1071905 4 64 2.24 3.74 9.72 30.2 36.5 13.8 14.8 4.36 i 48 .553 .085
H1071906 .372 1.35 o
25
33.2 16.7 84.2 33 1 18.3 10.7 3 24 1 0 9 .400
H1071907 .867 1.98 31.4 72.6 32.5 12 L 32.4 12.2 6.49 2.80 1.19 1.15
H1101904 ?. 72 4.08 3 38 3.65 13.2 46. 7 62.5 141. 702 14. 1 6. 76 7.14
Hl101905 31.5 6 49 5.50 6.89 14.0 34.4 47.5 88 . 5 82.7 18.4 4.52 2.61
H1101906 ?.59 3.31 5.04 48.9 23.1 152. 110. 200. 288. 216. 42.6 12.3
Hl101907 <S.40 6.07 14.1 25.6 334 64 0 118. 122. 124 64.6 16.1 5.60
HH01908 7.07 6.37 12.3 12.8 18.8 37.1 48.0 55 o 5 36.2 11.4 5.44 5.01
Hl 1
11904
| 24 13.9 13. 1 12.5 37. 4 134. 212. 590. 431. 123. 65.2 42.7
H1111905 H9. 3 7*7 22.6 28.1 50. 8 116. 165. 366 386. 116. 28.3 12.6
Hl111906 1 L
2
12.1 16.3 146. 68. 3 330. 287. 682. 1010. 1000. 270. 67.2
H111190
7
T
31.4 23.4 H3 0 87.9 101. 248. 403. 563 . 625. 454 121 32 .
5
1
A

TEST DATA - 723-X6- _2340

A

MONTHLY STREAMFLOW SIMULATION - NOV 1970

A

MULTI -PASS RECONSTITUTION AND GENERATION

19 04

10 1 5 10 5 2

L.
H
1071905
4
64
2 a 24 3.74 9.72 30.2 36.5 13.8 14.8 4.36 1.48 .553 .085
H1071906 ,372 1 .35 i a
25
33.2 16.7 84.2 33.1 18.3 10.7 3.24 1.09 .400
H1071907 .867 1.98 31,4 72.6 32.5 121. 32.4 12.2 6.49 2.80 1.19 1.15
Hl
101904
?.72 4.08 3. 38 36S 13.2 46.7 62.5 1 4 1
9
70.2 14 1 6.76 7.14
H1101905 31.5 6.49 5.50 6.89 14o 0 34.4 47.5 88 5 82.7 18*4 4.52 2.61
Hl101906 2.59 3.31 5.04 48.9 23,1 152. 110 200. 280. 216. 42.6 12.3
Hl101907 is40 6 07 i 4 o
1
25.6 33.4 64 . 0 118. 122 124. 64 6 16.1 5.60
H110190B
T
7.07 6.37 12.3 12.8 18.8 37.1 48. 0 55. 5 36.2 11.4 5.44 5.01
k
J 1
110

H1111904 ) 2
4
13.9 13.1 12.5 37. 4 134. 212. 590. 431. 123. 65.2 42.7
H1111905 11 9. 3 7.7 22.6 28.1 50. 8 116. 165. 366 386. 116. 28.3 12.6
H
1111906
11.2 12. 1 i6 3 146. 68. 3 330. 287. 682 1010. 1000. 270 67,2
H1111907 11.4 23.4 43,0 87.9 101. 248. 403. 563 62$ 454 a 121. 325
PAGE 1 EXHIBIT 3
A TEST DATA - 7H3-X6-L2340
A MONTHLY STREAMFLOW SIMULATION - NOV 1970
W 1904 C
H1101904
10
?, 72 4.08
1
3.38
FLOW
5
3.65
PrtOJECTION
S
2
13.2 4b,7
1909
62.5
1
10
141.
1913 70.2
14.1
6,76 7.14
H1101905 3*u5 6.49 5.50 6.89 14,0 34.4 47.5 88.5 82.7 18.4 4.52 2.61
H1101906 ? , 59 3.31 5. 04 48 . 9 23,1 152, 110, 200. 288. 216. 42. 6 12.3
H1101907 fi e 4
0
6 e 0
7
14.1 25,6 33.4 64.0 118, 122. 124. 64. 6 16.1 5.60
HU01908 7 e 0? 6.37 12.3 12.8 18.8 37.1 48.0 55.5 36.2 11.4 5*44 5.01
H1H1904 12.4 13.9 13.1 12.5 37.4 134. 212. 590. 431. 123. 652 42.7
H1U1905 119. 3/.7 22.6 28.1 50.8 116. 165. 366. 386. 116. 28.3 12.6
H1111906 11 o 2 12.1 16.3 146 69.3 330. 287. 682. 1010. 1000. 270. 67.2
H11U907
I
A
A
A
B 1904 C
H11
01904
31*4 23.4 43.0 87 b 9 101. 248. 403. 563. 625. 454 . 121. l
TEST DATA - 723-X6-L2340 MONTHLY STREAMFLOW
SIMULATION - NOV 1970 COMPUTE AND USE
GENERALIZED STATISTICS 10 1 5 10 10 1
2
?, 72 4.08 3.38 3.65 13,2 46.7 62.5 141.
70.2 14.1 6.76 7.14
H1101905 31.5 6.49 5.50 6.89 14.0 34.4 47.5 88.5 82.? 18.4 4.52 2.61
Hl101906 ?.59 3.31 5.04 48.9 23.1 152. 110. 200. 288. 216. 42.6 12.3
H1101907 6 .40 6.07 14. 1 25.6 33.4 64.0 118. 122. 124. 64.6 16.1 5.60
H1101908 7.07 6.37 12.3 12.8 18.8 37.1 48.0 55.5 36.2 11.4 5.44 5.01
HH11904 12.4 13.9 13.1 12.5 37.4 134. 212. 590. 431. 123. 65.2 42.7
H1H1903 119. 37.7 22.6 28.1 50.8 116. 165. 366. 386. 116. 28.3 12.6
Hl
111906
11.2 12.1 16.3 146. 68.3 330. 287. 682. 1010. 1000. 270. 67.2
H1111907
T
31.4 23.4 43.0 87.9 101. 248. 403. 563. 625. 454. 121. 32.5
A TEST DATA - 723-X6-L2340
A MONTHLY STREAMFLOW SIMULATION - NOV 1970
A STATISTICS FURNISHED

1 0

10

10

3
107 107 ,864 .949 ,521 .402 .000 .000 .916 .000 .000 .947 .880 .897
107 110 ,390 .951 .532 .407 .000 .999 .867 .000 .998 .936 .850 .754
107 111 ,390 .956 .510 .392 0 . .967 .946 0. .926 .955 .863 769
110 107 ,998 ,979 .988 .793 .000 .770 .992 .000 .988 .965 .822 .596
110 107 ,866 .928 .518 .317 .999 .000 .923 .833 .000 .983 .963 .729
PAGE 2 EXHIBIT 3
110
110
111
111
111
111
111
A
A
A
B
C
107
110
110
111
111
111
A
110 391 .930 .529 .321 . 793 .757 .860 .826 .986 .971 959 .833
111 .391 9
36
.507 .309 .789 . 733 .938 .763 .915 .975 .974 850
107 .992 .979 .968 .784 .000 . 866 .917 .000 .992 .980 .858 .591
110 .994 .957 .963 .995 .967 .917 .924 .924 .980 .985 .980 .998
107 .801 .97 0 .538 .315 968 .000 .999 .906 .000 .968 .974 .728
no .389 .971 .550 .319 .76? 826 .795 .899 .990 . 956 .940 . 832
ni .388 .977 526 .307 .763 .799 .867 .831 .918 .974 .955 .849
107 .123 .277 .917 1,378 1.449 1
.651
1.393 1 *
156
. 778 .327 -.079 -.529
107 .509 .100 .651 .339 .151 .196 . 154 .076 .176 .152 .130 .412
107 .015 -.027 . 157 -.211 -.750 -.829
.658
al
64
-.098 ~
643
-.793 -.253
107 .0 .0 .1 .5 . 3 1.0 .3 .2 .1 .0 .0 o 0
110 .17 .712 . 849 1.132 1.291 1.760 1.859 2.052 1.983 1.538 1.021 .768
110 .443 .131 .263 .437 .164 . 2S9 o 189 .208 .327 .528 .399 o 241
110 .220 -.036 .048 .150 .418 .586 .262 -.006 .236 550 . 464 .307
110 . I . 1 .1 .2 .2 .8 .9 1.5 i 4 .8 .2 .1
111 1.529 1.332 1.401 1.637 1.798 2.281 2.407 2.707 2.712 2 .
345
1.878 1,574
111 .451 .20? .242 .416 160 .184 .143 .118 .195 o 469 .391 .283
111 .289 .505 .359 .118 .073 .144 -.099 -.253 .125 .274 -.074 -.115
111 .5 e 3 .3 .8 .8 2.5 3.2 6.6 7.4 5.1 1.5 O
TEST DATA - 723-X6-L2340 MNTHLY STREAMFLOW SIMULATION - NOV
1970
generalized statistics furnished 10 10 10 3
1
107 .531

107 .741

110 .763

107 .744

110 .965

111 .763

107 1.494 -.189 .290 4. 10.
110 1.965 . 766 .299 6 a 11.
111 2.611 1.427 .269 6 9 12.
PAGE 3 EXHIBIT 3
TEST DATA - 723-X6-L2340 MNTHLV STKCAMFLW SIMULATION - NOV 197<
STAUARl; A^ALYSIS AMO GENERATION
>
(Ti
M
IV
t
A
IMNTH I ANAL MX*CS
NYKG
NYMXG NPASS
IPCHg
IPCH
S
19C
4
10 1 5 10 5 1 -0 -0
COM
B
1 STA 3 107 11C 111


RATIO

l.OCC 1.000
1.
ooc

MAXIMUM
VOLUMES
JF RECORDED FLOWS

STA 10 11 12 1 2 3 4
107 5 2 31 73 33 121 33
110 34 6 14 49 33 152 118
ill 119 38 43 146 101 330 403
996 157 46 89 228 1o7 566 553
MINIMUM
VOLUMES

STA 1C 11 12 1 2 3 4
107 0 1 2 1C 17 37 14
110 3 3 3 4 13 34 48
U1 11 12 13 13 37 116 16 5
996 14 17 24 45 95 187 226
FREQUENCY
STATISTICS

STA ITEM n 11 12 1 2
107 MEAN .
112
.283 .820 1.465 1.41
0

STO DEV .513 lt
8
.597 .433 .157

SKEW 1.04
1
-
1.3na
1.491 -.627 -
1.65
3

INCRMT .10 .10 . 12 . 39 .26

YEARS 3 3 3 3 3
110 MEAN .815 .715 .849 1.130 1.29
0

STO DeV .130 .26 2 .439 .164

SKEW 1.21
1
-.8^5 . 2 2C' .071 .626

INCRMT .10 .10 .10 .20 .20

YcAAS 5 5 5 5 5
111 MEAN 1
.439
1.298 1.335 1.673 1.78
4

STU
DfcV
.469 .223 . 223 . 473 .182

SKcW 1.11
7
.620 1. 004 -.243 .25
8

INCRMT .43 .22 .24 . 69 . 64

YEARS 4 4 4 4 4
NSTA NCMB NTNDM NCSIY IGNRL NPRQJ I YRPJ MTHPJ IYRPJ
-0 1 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0

5 6 7 8 9 1-MO 6-MO 54-MD AV
MO
18 11 3 1 1 121 302-99999998 18
20C 28a 216 43 12 288 1009 2656 45
682 1010 1000 270 67 1010 3579-
99999998
204
900 1309 1219 314 30 1309 4738-
99999998
299
5 6 7 8 9 1-MO 6MO 54-MO M MO
12 4 1 1 r* 0 o 99999999

56 36 11 5 3 3 36 2519

366 386 lio 28 13 11 196 99999999

469 473 136 33 15 14 239 99999999

3
1.862
.263
-1.073
.31
3
1.75a
.259 1.454 7
5
2 281 .213 .208 2.07
4
4
1.395 .214 -1.728 2o
3
1.858 . 190 .371 .77
5
2.407 . 166 .278
2.67
4
5
1.177 . C 87 . 144 .15
3
2.051 .208 -.453 1. 21
5
2.734
.115
-1.429
5.50
6
.834
.192
.348
.10
3
1.982
.3,28
.485
1.20
5
2.760 . 167 .892 6.13
7
.395
.173
-1.489
.10
3
1.536
.530
1.041
.65
5
2.462
.449
.472
4.23
4
8
.000 . 162 -1.641 .1C
3
1.020
.400
1.085
.15
5
1.95 3 .408 -.019 1.21
9
-.312
.415
-.122
.10
3
.770
.240
-.121
.10
5
1.524
.302
-.939
.39
4
FREOtNCV STATISTIti rTE AUJUSTMCNTS
>
o
ts3
M
ST
A
IT;: M I ' 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1
C
7
KFA\ .?12 .2 u i .76 9 1. 4C
2
1 .
*1
1
.326
1.321 1.177 .710 .316 -.03 3 -
.312

ST
oLV

. :-39 . 7 . JO3 . 157 .227 . 137 .(87 . 2
i a
.166 .133 .415

SKcv 1 o'
4

41
- 1. 3
>3
1.491 -.627 -
1.653
- 1.0
73
-1.
72B
. 144 .348 -
1.489
-1
.b4l
-
.122

1NCRMT .10 .10 . 12 .39 .2b .ai .26 .15 dr .10 . 1C .10
11
0
MEAN .315 .715 .
3<*9
1. i
3'.'
1 o 2
9 J
1.75
t
1.B5H 2.051 1.982 1.536 1.C20 .770

STD
EV

. 1 JC . 262 . 439 . 16
4
.259 . 19T .208 .328 .530 .400 .2<t
O

SK.EW 1.211 -. -
135
. 22
fl
.071 .626 1.454 .371 -.453 .485 1
.041
1.085 -
.121

INCRMT .10 .10 . 1C 20 .20 .67 .77 1.21 1.20 .65 .15 .10
11
1
MEAN 1
44
1.334 1.
385
1 .
669
1.782 2 o
250
2.
372
2.681 2.693 2.368 1.890 1.50
7

STD
DEV
.A 7 .209 .224 . 40
9
.158 .198 . 16
3
.153 .220 .441 .380 .265

SKEW 1.117 62C' 1 o
0C4
-.
243
25
d
.208 .27d -1.429 .892 .472 -.019 -
.939

INCRMT .43 .22 .24 .69 .64 2.07 2.67 5.50 6. 13 4.23 1.21 .39
RAM CURRtLATIQN COcFF II. I fcNT S FJR M'JMTH 10
STA 107 110 111
WITH CURKtNT MONTH
10 7 1.1^0 .998 .987
110 .998 i.)K .997
111 .987 . >97 l.CCr
WITH PRcCEuING MUNTH AT ABVE STATIUN 107 -4.000 .5 34 .526 i
10 .905 .5 88 .5 7b 111 -4.000 .663 .65fc
RAW CORRELATION COFF 1C. 1 F.NT S FOR MONTH 11
STA 107 11C 111
,'iI
TH
Cl
107 1.0
r
.
C
.971
.

11C .970 l.uO
r
.974
111 l.OC'

.
>74
1.
r

..
ITh
Pi
107 . 9c
4
.98- .994
110 . 370 .881 .
94A
111 . 9b4 .982 .994
NOTE: ilmau.rn.nQ montlvi not ikom.
PARE 3 EXHIBIT 4
RECOKOC AND !< tCONST ITUTc.D
ST
A
YLAP, 1C U 12 1 2
10 i<m C L It 15t 24E
7
10
7
1905 5 2 4 10 30
10
7
19U

1 33 17
10
7
1907 i 2 31 Ti 32
10
7
1 908 1c Le I6t 46E 3 2
ti
ST
A
YfcAR
.
10 11 12 l 2
11
0
1904 3 4 3 4 13
no 1905 33 o 5 7 14
11
0
19C6 3 3 5 49 23
11
0
1907 6 6 14 26 33
11
0
190a 7 6 12 13 19
ST
A
VEAfc 10 11 12 l
11
1
1904 12 14 13 12 37
11
1
19^5 119 38 i 28 51
11
1
1906 11 12 16 146 68
11
1
L 90
7
31 3 43 88 101
Ul 190 8 30c 24t 40 E 51E 64E
ADJUSTcD FREQUENCY STATISTICS
ST
A
ITEM 10 11 12 1 2
10
7
MEAN .019 .27b .761 lo
451
l.
424

STD
DcV
.412 .f8fc .575 . 35C .122

SKEW 1.135 -.
585
.3 99 -.251 -
1.298

INCRMT o 1
'*J
. K .12 . 39 . 26
UP Mt AN . a i
5
.715 .849 1.
130
1.
290

STD
DEV
.444 . 13G .262 .439 . 164

SKEW 1.211 -.835 .220 .071 .626

INCRMT .10 ' .10 .10 . 2
1
' . 0
11
1
MEAN 1.447 1.314 1.388 1.
662
1.789

STD
DtV
.40 7 .197 .227 .41P .15 8

SKEn .964 .188 .070 -.335 .09*

INCRMT .43 .22 .24 .69 t>4
3
485
36
84
121
56c
3
47
34
152
64
37
3
134
116
330
248
107c
3
1.807
.202
.445
. 81
1.758
.259
1.454
.67
2.232
.215
.677
2.07
4 5 6 7 8 9 TOTAL
20E 11E 4c 2t 1E Ce 128
14 15 4 1 1 0 122
33 18 11 3 1 0 26 3
32 12 6 3 l 1 315
15E 13E 2E 16 1E Ofc 185
4 5 6 7 6 9 TOTAL
62 141 70 14 7 7 375
47 88 83 18 5 3 343
110 00 288 216 43 12 1104
118 122 124 65 16 6 600
48 55 36 U 5 5 254
4 5 6 7 8 9 TOTAL
212 5 90 431 123 65 43 lt>86
165 3 66 386 116 28 13 1449
287 682 101C 100C 70 67 3899
403 563 625 4 54 121 32 732
149t 294E 269c 70E 48E 29E 1175

4 5 6 7 8 9
l o
33 6
.
176
.192
.26
1.141
.082
1.018
.15
.712
.233
.135
. 10
.313
.172
.335
.10
.009
.116 -
lo 606
,1C
-31H
.294
o
C 61
ao
1.85
8 .
190
.371
. 77
2.051
. 20
8 -
.453
1.21
1.982
.328
.485
1.2C
1.536
.530
1.C41
.65
1.020
.400
1.085
.15
.770
.240
o
121
.10
2.36
1 .
176
.
580
2.67
2.683
.152
-.629
5.50
2.696
.216
.541
. 1
J
2 .
344
.470
.722
4.23
1.902
..>72
.545
1.21
1
.512
.263
-
.671
.39
CONSISTENT COK'-=LAT IUN MA T I X F CR MNTH 10
O
P3
5>
OS
M
H
ST
A
1C7 110 111

i TH CUKRcf.T
MiNTh
10
7
i.oco -3
97
.9b9
UC .9-57 I.JC' .997
11
1
.989 . J97 1.0CC

rtiTH P (i c C
u I Ni MONTH AT
10 o 46 . 526 .516
7 3
11
0
.45 d .
5td
.57b
11
1
.431 .660 . o5 1
3NSISTENT
CORRLATI
ON MATKIX FCR
MONTH 11
ST
A
10 7 110 111

#ITH CuRRliNT
MONTH
10
7
1.000 . 960 .999
11
0
960 l.-
'CO
.954
11
1
.999 .954 1.000

WITH PRECEDING
MONTH AT
10
7
.964 .975 .985
11
0
. 667 . aai .904
li
l
96 9 .900 . 99C
MOTE: RemcU.YU.nQ monthA not ihown.
MAXIM
UM
STA
VQLUMc
S
10
F
K
11
PER10
D
12
1 OF
1
5
VEARS
2
OF RECOREO ANO
RECONSTITUTED FLOWS 3 4 5
6 7.
8 9 1-M 6-MO 54-MO AV
MQ
107 5 2 31 73 32 121 33 18 11 3 l l 121 302 954 16
110 33 6 14 49 33 152 118 20C 288 216 43 12 288 1009 2656 45
111 119 38 43 146 101 33C **03 6 82 101
0
100c 2 70 67 1C1C 3579 10826 182
996 157 4o 88 22 d 167 566 553 900 13
09
1219 314 80 13G9 4738 14411 243
MNIM
UM
STA
VOLUMt
S
10
11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1M 6-MC 54-MO AV
HO
107 p l 1 IC 17 36 14 11 2 l 1 0 6 869

110 3 3 3 4 13 34 47 55 36 11 5 3 3 36 2564

ni 11 12 13 12 37 107 149 294 269 70 28 13 11 196 10220

99 6 14 17 18 31 74 187 212 362 308 83 33 15 14 239 13726

INCONSISTENT
CORCEL
MATRI
X
FUR 1
=
1 K= 2 OTRM
C
=
1.001

INCONSISTENT ClJRRcL MATRU AOJUSTt. 0 13
1.000
PAGE 5 EXHIBIT 4
GEMcRATib FlwS FOK PfcF.IU
1
ST
A
VE
Aft
10 11
10
7
1 1 C
10
7
2 r 2
m 3 *
10
7
4 1 2
10
7
5 1 2
ST
A
YEAR 10 11
11
0
1 7 5
11
0
2 3 4
ll

3 3 3
11
0
4 d 6
11
0
5 6 5
ST
A
YEAR 10 U
il
l
1 26 22
11
1
2 13 14
11
1
3 13 16
11
1
4 39 28
11
1
5 25 19
12 1 2 3
4 12 37 28 3 9 12 43 9 4 9 24 64
11 36 2 61 1 6 27 50
12 1 2 3 6 3 11 25
5 22 15 40 9 30 22 96 9 13 19 50
3 4 14 *9
12 1 2 3 22 11 40 60 18 80 46 132 28 100
75 287 i4 51 63 163
13 13 44 109
MAXIM VOLUM
P
PEMUD 1 OF 5 OF SYNTHf FLQ^
UM cS < YEARS cT C S
STA 1C 11 12 1 2 3 4 5
107 i 2 11 49 37 64 31 15
110 8 6 9 30 22 96 103 184
m 39 28 34 100 75 28
7
290 693
996 47 36 54 178 121 44
7
424 895
MINIMUM VULUMES
STA 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5
107 C. 2 1 6 12 28 8 11
110 3 4 3 3 11 25 28 55
111 13 14 13 11 40 60 124 54
996 16 20 17 23 74 113 160 3
20
4
8
17
31
22
16
4
28
56
103
69
58
4
124
190
290
214
213
6
9
228
836
1046
6
2
36
237
2 75
5 6 7
11 2 1
13 9 2
15 9 3
15 9 3
11 3 1
5 6 7
55 36 10
184 200 41
1 54 226 125
162 228 112
84 50 9
5 6 7
254 237 62
698 33b 337
575 741 i>52
615 781 572
420 308 77

8 9 TOTAL
1 0 107
1 0 111
1 n 207
1 0 189
1 0 119
8 9 TOTAL
4 5 195
9 6 585
29 15 817
16 6 698
4 2 2 88
8 9 TOTAL
32 30 92C
71 34 2469
245 81 3003
109 34 2703
22 6 1269

7 8 9 l-MO 6-MO 54-MO AV
MO
3 1 0 64 192 724 12
125 29 15 228 731 2555 43
572 245 81 836 2691 1C255 173
687 275 96 1046 3545 13522 228
7 8 9 1-MO 6-MO 54-MO AV
MO
l 1 0 0 6 648

9 4 2 2 31 2427

62 22 6 6 149 9506

73 26 8 8 207 12648

PAGE 6 EXHIBIT 4
GENERATED
FLCMS
FUS PfcP
IJD
STA YEAR 10 11
107 ("l 1
107 7 H

1C
7
8 c 1
107 9 1 2
107 1C 1 2
STA YEAR n 11
110 6 2 3
110 7 64 8
lio a 2 h
110 9

5
lie 10 5 7
STA YEAR 10 11
111 6 9 11
111 7 f
7
48
111 8 9 11
111 9 17 17
111 10 23 23

MAXIM
UM
VOLUM
ES
FO
R
PcKl
UD
STA 1C 11 12
107 9 2 145
110 64 33
111 207 48 92
996 280 59 270
MINIM
UM
STA
VOLUM
ES
10
11 12
107 C- 1 1
110 2 3 3
111 9 11 9
996 11 15 12

12 1 2
1 15 16
145 16C 35
t <*3 26
3

25
2C 61 23
12 1 2
3

22
33 28 25
9 21 21
5 9 18
13 19 27
12 1 2
9 64 63
92 102 85
25 72 68
2C 34 57
39 71 69
2 OF 5 YtARS UF SYNTHETIC
l 2 3 4
16
C
35 115 34
28 27 106 122
102 85 292 373
289 1 45 485 528

1 2 3 4
15 16 51 20
9 18 42 66
34 57 146 189
63 100 261 275
3
77
79
o5
51
115
3
106
42
47
84
87
3
292
146
149
211
284
FLOW
5
18
169
672
855
5
U
94
385
492
't 5 6 7 8 9 TOTAL
34 18 7 3 1 1 174
2C 15 5 2 1 0 473
2 J U 4 1 1 c 185
24 IJ 3 1 0 145
33 13 8 3 1 0 280
4 5 6 7 8 9 TOTAL
113 124 151 72 27 12 655
66 106 90 32 10 6 510
71 114 63 12 6 4 374
79 94 55 38 7 6 404
122 169 197 146 26 11 829
4 5 6 7 8 9 TOTAL
325 542 641 438 218 68 2680
189 4 76 4 70 198 87 34 2134
243 508 396 104 50 26 1661
249 385 337 174 53 33 1587
373 672 784 675 199 62 3274

6 7 8 9 1-MO 6-MO 54MO AV
MO
8 3 1 1 160 454 1254 21
197 146 27 12 197 74 2 70 7 46
784 675 218 68 784 2987 11121 189
990 d24 246 81 990 3908 15054 256

6 7 8 9 1-MO 6-MO 54-MO
3 1 1 0 0 8 1150
55 12 6 4 2 33 216
337 IC4 50 26 9 163 8936
395 118 56 30 11 223 12386
PA'SE 7 EXHIBIT 4
TEST DATA - 723-X6-L2340 'lNTHLY STREAMFLOW SIMULATION - NOV
1970 MJLTI-PASS RECONSTITUTION AND GENERATIUN
IYPA IMNTH IANAL MXRCS NYRG NYMXG NPASS IPCHQ IPCHS 1904 10 1
5 10 5 2-0 -O
MAXIMUM VOLUMES JF RECORDED FLwS
STA 10 11 12 1 2 3 4
10
7
5 2 31 73 33 121 33
110 34 6 14 49 33 152 118
MINIMUM VOLUMES
STA 10 11 12 1 2 3 4
107 0 1 2 10 17 37 14
11C 3 3 3 4 13 34 48
FREQUENCY STATISTICS
ST
A
ITEM 10 11 12 1 2
10
7
MEAN .112 .283 .820 1.465 1.410

STO
DcV
.513 .108 .597 .433 .157

SKfcrt 1.041 -1.308 1.491 -.627 -
1.653

INCRMT .10 .10 .12 .39 .26

YEARS 3 3 3 3 3
11
0
MEAN .815 .715 . d49 1.130 1.290

STO
l) V
.444 .130 .262 .439 . 164

SKcW 1.211 -.835 . 22C .071 .626

INCRMT .10 .10 .10 .20 .20

YEARS 5 5 5 5 5
FREQUENCY STATISTICS AFTER ADJUSTMENTS
ST
A
ITEM 10 11 12 1 2
10
7
Me AN .('1
2
.283 .769 1.403 1.410

STD D
V
.409 . 089 .6 37 .363 .15 7

SKcW 1.041 -1.308 1.491 -.627 -
1.653

INCRMT .10 .10 .12 .39 .26
11
0
MEAN .813 .715 .849 1.
130
1.290

STD
DcV
.444 .130 .262 .439 .164

SKtw 1.211 -.835 .220 .071 .626

INCRMT .1:: .1C 10 2C .20
NSTA N( -O
5
18
200
5
12
56
3
1.862 263 -1.073 .81
3
1.758
.259
1.454
.67
5
3
1.862 .26 3 -1.073 .81
1.758
.259
1.454
.67
;0M6 NTNOM NCSTY IGNRL NPROJ IYRPJ MTHPJ LYRPJ
0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0

6 7 8 9 1-MO 6-MO 54-MO AV MO
11 3 1 1 121 302- 9999999
8

18
288 216 43 12 288 1009 2656

45
6 7 8 9 1-MO 6-MO 54-MO AV MO
4 1 1 C 0 6 9999999
9

36 11 5 3 3 36 2519


4 5 6 7 9 9
1.395
.214
-
1.728
.26
3
l.
177
.087
.144
.15
3
.834
.192
.348
.10
3
.395
.173
-
1.489
.10
3
.000 .
162 -
1.641
.10
3
-.312
.415
-.122
.10
3
1.85
8
.190
. 371
.77
5
2.051
.208
-.453
1.21
5
1.982
.328
.485
1.2C
5
1.536
.530
1.041
.65
5
1.020
.400
1.085
.15
5
.770
.240
-.121
.10
5
4 5 6 7 8 9
1.321
. 187
-
1.728
.26
1.
177
.087
.144
.15
.710
.228
.348
. 10
.316
.166
-
1.489
.IG
-.033
.133
-1.641
.10
-.312
.415
-.122
.10
1.858
.190
.371
.77
2.051
.208
-.453
1.21
1.982
'
.328
.485
1.2C
1.536
.530
1.041
.65
1.020
.400
1.C85
.15
.770
.240
-.121
.10
COR6LAT1 Of4 CUFFICItt<S FOP MONTH 10
In
00
ST
A
107 n:
10
7
1. cc
->
.998
no . 99b 1 o
')00
10
7
-
4..C2
G
. p
34
11
0
.905 .
588
.JX TH CURkcNT MONTH
l
r
H PF-. C S I JG MONTH AT AOVE STATIUN
i tes H H
RAW COR RfcLAT I ON COEFFICItNTS FK MuNTH 11
STA 1C 7 lie


h'I TH CUKRENT
MONTH

107 l.cr-o .970

110 . 97u I.LOI


WITH PRECEDING MONTH AT ABO VE
STATIUN
107 .964 .980

110 .870 .881


NOTE: ReiU.u.g
monthi not ihcnon.

RECORDcD ANO RcCONSTITUTfcD
FLUwS

PASS l

STA YcAR 10 i ^ 12 1
A
2 3
107 1904 Oc 22 le 12E 27E t> 8c
107 1905 5 2 4 10 30 36
10 7 1906 C 1 2 33 17 84
1C7 l 9
n
7 1 2 31 73 32 121
107 1908 16 20 E 44E 24 E 84E
STA YEAR 10 11 12 1 3
no 19^4 3 4 3 4 13 47
110 19C5 33 6 5 7 14 34
110 1906 3 3 5 49 23 152
110 1907 o 6 14 20 33 64
110 19C8 7 6 12 13 19 37
ADJUSTcO FREQUENCY
STATISTICS

STA ITEM 10 u 12 1 2 i
107 MEAN .CID .285 .788 1.427 1.408 1.870

STO
DcV
.412 .85 . 586 .365 .113 .189

SKEW i.ldb -
.822
.383 -.144 -1.
18 2
-
.994

INCRMT .ic . 1" .12 . 39 . 26 .31
110 MEAN . 315 .715 . 49 1.
130
1.
290
1.
758

STD
DeV
.4+4 . 1
3C
.262 .439 a 164 .259

SK-c
/
1. 11 -.
8J5


r
7i .626 1.454

I N C
r< 1*1
T
.lf .1? . 10 . 2
r
. 2 . o 7
OTAL
148
122
203
315
213
OTAL
375
343
1104
600
254
5 6 7 8 9
1 It 4E 2fc 1E CE
15 4 1 1 0
18 11 3 1 0
12 6 3 l 1
17E 3E 1E 1E CE
5 6 7 8 9
i 41 70 14 7 7
n 83 Id 5 3
200 288 216 43 12
122 124 65 16 6
55 36 11 5 5

5 6 7 8 9
167 .707 .318 -.
037
-
.453
091 .230 . 166 . 144 .424
143 .453 .43 6 -.327 -
.071
15 . 10 .10 .10 .10
051 1.982 1.536 1.020 .770
208 . 328 .530 40C 2
4 J
453 .48 5 i.:4i 1.085
ii
21 X .2C .fcS .15 .10
w
w
M
H
CON SIST tNT CURKcLATIU MATnIX FCR MONTH 10 WITH CURRENT MONTH
WITH PkECEDING MONTH AT A80VE STATION
STA 1C 7 110
1C
7
1.000 .997
lie . 997 1 .
CO
107 .481 .526
110 .475 .588
CONSISTENT CRRELATION MATKIX FOR MONTH 11
HIITH CURRENT MONTH
WITH PKECEDING MONTH AT ABOVE STATION NOTE: Remainlng monttu not
hoton.
STA 107 110
107 l.
OOC
.972
110 .972 1.00
0
107 . 941 .950
110 . 867 .881
o
MAXIMUM
VOLUMES FOR
STA 10 11
PER1
D
12
l OF
1
5
YiARS
2
OF RECORDED AND
RECONSTITUTED FLOWS 3 <4 5
6 7
8 9
107 5 2 31 73 32 121 33 18 11 3 1 1
110 33 6 14 49 33 152 118 200 288 216 43 12
MINIMUM VOLUMES
STA 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
107 0 l 1 10 17 36 14 11 3 1 1 0
110 3 3 3 4 13 34 47 55 36 11 5 3
INCONSISTENT
CORHEL
MATRI
X
FOR 1
=
l K* 2 DTRM
C
=
1.000

1-MO 121 2 88
1-MO
O
3
6-MO
302
1009
6-MO
6
36
54-M
1000
2656
54-MO
894
2564
AV
MO
17
45
AV MO
PAGE 10 EXHIBIT 4
PASS 2
STA(S) FfM PkcVIJUS PO 5 110 MAXIMUM VOLUNcS OF krCKDc
FLOWS
STA 10 1 i 12 1 2 3 H-
111 119 i A 4i 146 101 33 r. 403
1INIMUM
VGLUMHS

STA 10 11 12 1 2 3 *v
111 11 12 13 13 37 110 lo 5
:
RttUENCY
STATISTICS

STA ITEM 1C 11 12 1 2
111 McAN 1 .43
9
1.298 1. 335 1.673 1.78
4

iTO
DtV
fb
3
.223 . 223 .473 .182

SKEW 1.117 .620 1.004 -.243 .25
8

INCRMT .t3 .22 .24 . 69 .64

YEARS 4 4 4 4 4
-REQUENCY STATISTICS AFTER
AJJSTMENTS

STA ITEM 10 11 12 1 2
110 MEAN .815 .715 .849 1.130 1.
29

STO
uEV
.444 .130 .262 .439 .
164

SKEW 1.211 -.335 .220 .071 .626

INCRMT .10 .1* . 10 .20 .20
111 MEAN 1.448 1.334 1.385 1.669 1.78
2

STD
DEV
.407 209 .224 . 409 .
158

SKEW 1.117 .620 1 .004 -.243 .253

INCMT .43 .22 .24 .69 . 64
3 6 7 9 X-M 6-MO 54-*4
6H2 10 VC 13CO 2 7C 67 1010 3 57 9-99999998
5 6 7 t 9 1-MO 6-MG 54-MQ
3t>o 386 116 28 13 li 196 99999999
3 4 5 6 7 8 9
2.281 2.407 2.734 2.760 2.462 1.953 1.524
.213.16o .115 .187 .449 .408 .302 .208 .278 -1.429 .892 .472 -
.019 -.939
2.07 2.67 5.50 6.13 4.23 1.21 .39
4 444444
3
1.758 259 1.454 .67
2.250 . 198 .208 2.07
4
1.85o
.190
.371
.77
2.372
.163
.278
2.67
5
2.051
.208
-.453
1.21
2.681
.153
1.429
5.50
6
1.982 .328 .485 1. 20
2.693
.220
.892
6.13
7
l .536 .530 1.041 .65
2.368
.441
.472
4.23
8
1.020 4o0 1.085 .15
1.690
.380
-.019
1.21
9
.770
.240
-.121
.10
1.507 .265 -.939 .39
M HQ 204
AV MO
PAGE 11 EXHIBIT 4
RAW CORRELATION CObFFIC ItiNTS FOR MONTH 10 STA 110 Ul
WITH CURRENT MONTH
11C 1. OCG .->97 111 . 997 l.-'OO
WITH PRCcOING MONTH AT ABCVE STATION
110 .5 83 573
111 .663 .656
RArt CORPcLATION COEFFICIENTS FK MONTH 11 STA 110 111
WITH CURRENT MONTH
110 1.000 .974
111 .974 l."
1
00
WITH PREC6DING MONTH AT ABOVc STATION
11" .881 .944
111 .982 .994
NOTEi RetneUnng monthi not ihom.
RcCROtD ANO RSCONSTITUTcO FluWS PASS 2
ST
A
YEAR 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
11
1
1904 12 14 13 12 37 134 212 5 90 431 123 65 43
Ul 1905 119 38 23 28 51 116 165 3 66 386 116 28 13
11
1
1906 11 12 16 146 68 330 287 682 1010 1000 270 67
11
1
1907 31 23 43 38 101 248 403 563 625 454 121 32
Ul 1908 34t 23E 35E 47E 52fc 1 37E 180E 256E 313E 95E 33E 29E
AOJUSTED FREQUENCY STATISTICS
ST
A
ITEM 1C 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
11 MEAN 1.458 1. 1.378 1.674 1.771 2.254 2.378 2.671 2.709 2.369 1.870 1.51
1 312 2

STO
OEV
.4 09 .196 .216 .409 .163 .195 .158 .173 ,.198 .441 . 399 .2e>
3

SKBW . d
V
.2 39 .^89 -.243 . 61
5
. 737 .811 -.878 .
89tj
.896 .578 -
.674

INCRMT o4i .22 .24 .69 .64 2.07 2.67 5.50 6.13 4.23 1.21 .39
TOTAL
1686
1449
3899
2732
1234
CONSISTENT CQRftcLATICN MATKIX FUK MUNTH >10 STA 110 111
WITH CjRRtMT MONTH
110 l.OCO .996
111 .996 l.OCO
nITH PKECEDINO MONTH AT ABUVE STATION
110 .508 .578
111 .653 .642
CONSISTENT CORRELATIN MATRIX FGR MONTH 11 STA 110 111
rtlTH CURRENT MONTH
110 1.000 .949
111 .949 l.COO
WITH PRECEDING MONTH AT ABOVE STATION
110 .831 . 92C
111 .981 .994
MOTE: Remaining monthi not ihouin.
MAXIM
UM
VOLUM
ES
FO
R
PERI
D

O

T
I

5
YEARS
OF RtCDRO
EO
ANO
I
STA 10 11 12 i 2

3 4 i
111 11* 38 43 146 101 33
0
403 68,
MINIM
UM
VOLUM
ES

STA 10 11 12 1 2

3 4

111 11 12 13 12 37

li
o
165 25'
GENERATED
FLOUS
FO
R
PER
100
1

PASS
1

STA VEAR 10 11 12

1

2 3
107 l 2 2 11

67 25 67
107 2 2 2 18

54 29 133
107 3 C 1 0

7

24 119
107 4 1 2 93

10
1

25 103
10 7 5 1 2 3

20 25 100
STA VEAR 1C 11 12

1

2 3
110 1 14 6 10

30 20 55
110 2 12 6 12

32 32 110
110 3 2 3 2

12 19 143
110 4 10 7 23

29 24 31
110 5 8 5 5

41 24 79
ITUTED FLOWS
6 7 8 9 1-MO 6-MO 54-MU AV
1010 1G00 2 70 67 1010 3579 10890

6 7 8 9 1-MO 6-MO 54-MO AV
313 95 28 13 11 196 10264


4 5 6 7 8 9 TOTAL
25 19 6 3 1 1 229
36 15 9 3 1 2 304
42 17 11 3 1 0 225
16 14 4 2 1 0 362
28 15 5 2 1 c 210
4 5 6 7 8 9 TOTAL
75 135 106 82 47 6 586
123 183 201 89 12 2 814
140 237 267 111 33 13 982
51 64 65 20 7 4 335
91 150 91 23 9 5 531
MAX
IrtUM
VCLUM
5S
FO
R.
PK1

1 F 5
YEARS
OF
SYNTHETIC
FLUW
S
STA 1C U 1 1 2 3 4 5
10 7 2 93 101 29 133 42 19
110 14 7 23 41 32 143 140 237
MNIMUM VOLUMES
STA 1C U 12 1 2 3 4 5
107 0 l 0 7 24 67 16 14
il 2 3 2 12 19 31 51 '
GENERATED FLOWS FOR PEP.ID i
PAS
S
STA
2
YEAR
1'.) 11 12 1 2 3
111 1 5o 28 33 103 62 186
111 2 52 29 37 107 84 302
111 3 9 1 9 40 52 262
111 4 50 30 6C 104 70 115
Ul 5 34 23 2C 127 57 239
MAXIMUM VOLUMS FOP. PERIO 1 F5 YEARS OF SYNTHETIC
FLUWS
STA 10 II 12 1 2 3 4 5
111 56 30 60 127 84 302 453 837
MINIMUM VOLUMES
STA 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5
Ul 9 12 9 40 52 115 181 331
6
11
267
6
4
65
4
275
343
453
181
257
6
1182
6
373
7 a 9 1-MO 6-MG 54M AV
MO
3 1 2 133 352 1313 22
111 47 13 267 931 3180 54
7 8 9 1-MO 6-MO 54-MO AV
MO
2 1 C 0 8 1156

20 7 2 2 34 2955


5 6 7 8 9 TOTAL
5
38
565 435 433 37 2753
6
90
757 529 81 10 3021
837 1132 586 238 73 3753
331 3 73 135 55 2C 1524
577 397 156 83 31 2001

7 8 9 1-MO fe-MO 54-MO AV
MO
586 433 73 1182 3558 12738 218
7 8 9 i-MO 6-MO 54-MO AV
MO
135 55 IC 9 131 11751


GtNtRATED
FLuWS
FO
R
lc
F I
O
PASS 1


STA YEAR 10 11

10 7 6 1 2

P7 7 1 2

107 8

10 7 9 c i

107 ir -

E STA Y S Ah

11

11C 6 6 6
3 no 7 6 6

110 d 19 6
4
^
110 9 2 4

110 10 3 4

MAXIMU
M
VOLU'
tS
FO
R
PER
100
STA IC 11 12
107 2 2 7
110 19 6 7
MINIMU
M
VULUMtS

STA 10 11 12
107 0 1 2
11C 2 4 4
GENERATED
FLOWS
F
K'
PEKIO
D
PASS 2

STA YEAR 12 11
111 26 22
111 7 28 22
111 8 9b 34
111 9 8 11
111 10 U 13
MAXIMU
M
VOLUM
ES
FO
R
P6RI0
D
STA 10 11 12
111 96 4 26
MINIMU
M
VOLUM
SS

STA 10 11 12
111 8 U 14
2
12 1 2 3
7 29 14 83
E 23 24 89
2 5 22 22
2 24 22 64
3 31 19 57
2 1 2 3
7 21 16 37
6 la 18 96
4 2 9 40
4 l 16 42
6 30 17 34

OF 5
YEARS
OF
:
SYNTHE
TIC
FLOW
S
1 2 3 4 5
31 24 89 36 10
30 Id 96 115 164
1 2 3 4 5
5 14 22 14 12
2 9 34 45 65
2
12 1 2

3
26 67 56

135
24 67 65

252
18 b 31

115
14 52 42

136
18 99 62

131
UF 5
YcARS
OF SYNTHETIC
FLOWS
1 2 3 4 5
99 65 252 33
9
635
1 2 3 4 5
6 31 115 15
7
316
13 36
14 18
15
4 O l
115
45
55
48
6
18
534
6
2
34
4
2C8
339
157
176
164
6
1339
6
2dl
5

7 8 9 TOTAL
12 i 2 l r 172
18 18 6 2 1 225
l 4 2 1 C 92
la 2 1 1 0 150
15 3 1 1 0 146
5 6 7 8 9 TOTAL
84 54 14 8 8 322
164 534 783 335 21 2102
95 74 28 9 6 337
65 34 9 3 3 252
91 54 11 4 4 306

7 8 9 1-MO 6-MO 54-MO AV
MO
6 2 1 89 208 778 13
783 335 21 783 2027 3281 55
7 8 9 l-MU t~m 54-MO AV
MO
i 1 0 0 6 650

9 3 3 2 27 3149


5 6 7 3 9 TOTAL
390 392 108 60 48 1538
635 1339 2916 2337 100 8124
394 40C 182 72 33 1538
316 281 72 22 14 1144
395 379 117 26 22 1437
7 8 9 l-MU 6-MO 54-MO A
291
6
2337 100 2916 7819 13594
7 8 9 l-MO 6-MO 54-MO A
72 22 14 6 152 12818
TcSI DATA - 723-X6-L2340 lUNTHLY STRCAMFLOW SIMULATION - NOV
197C FLW PRJJcCTlUNS
IYRA IMNTH I tXRCS NYRG NPAS IPCH IPCH
ANAL .WMXG S Q S
1904 10 l 5 -r -0 1 -0 w
*AXI
MUM
VOLUME
S

F
RcCKD
ED
FLiMS

STA 10 1
1
U l 2 i 4
110 34 6 14 49 33 152 118
111 119 3
8
43 146 ICl 33r 403
41NI
HUM
VOLUHE
S

STA 10 1
1
12 1 2 3 4
110 3 3 3 4 13 34 48
111 11 1
2
13 13 37 116 Ib 5
FREQUENCY STATISTICS
ST
A
ITEM 10 11 12 1 2
11
C
MEAN .815 .715 .849 1.13C 1.29
0

STD
DcV
.444 .130 . 262 .439 .
164

SKEw 1.211 -.835 . 2
2C
.071 .626

INCRMT .10 .lt .10 2U .20

YEARS 5 5 5 5 5
ll
l
MEAN 1.439 l.t98 1.335 1.673 1.78
4

STD
DEV
.409 .223 .223 . 473 .
182

SKEW 1 .11
7
.020 1.004 -.243 .258

INCRMT .43 .22 .24 .69 .64

YEARS 4

4 4 4
FREQUENCY STATISTICS AFTcR ADJUSTMcNTS
ST
A
ITEM 10 11 12 1 2
UC MEAN .815 . 715 .849 1.13r 1.29
0

STD
OfcV
.444 .130 .262 .439 .
164

SKEW 1.211 -.835 .220 .071 .62o

INCRMT .1" .1' . 1C . 2C .20
11
1
MEAN 1.448 1.334 1.385 1.669 1.78
2

STD .07 .20 9 .224 .409 .158
DEV

SKE'W 1.117 .b2 0 1 -.243 .258

INCRMT .< i .22 . 2* . 69 o 64
NSTA NCMB NTNl)'I fJCSTV IGNRL NPR3J YRPJ MTHPJ LYRP4
-0 -0 -0 -0 -0 2 19C9 10 1913

5 6 7 8 9 1-MO 6-MU 54-MO AV
MO
200 238 2 i 6 43 1 288 1009 2656 45
692 10
LO
1000 27C 67 1010 3579-
99999998
20T
5 6 7 8 9 1-MO 6-MO 54-MO AV
MO
56 36 11 5 3 3 36 2519

3
06
386 116 28 13 11 196 99999999



4 5 6 7 8 9
i.75
8
1.858 2.C51 1.982 1.536 1.C20 77C
.259 .190 .208 .328 . 53C 4CC .240
1.45
4
.371 453 485 1.041 1.085 -.121
.67 .77 1.21 1.20 .65 .15 .1C
5 5 5 5 5 5 5
2.28
1
2
.407
2.734 2.760 2.462 1.953 1.526
.213 .166 .115 . 187 .449 408 .370
.208 .278 -1.429 .892 .472 -.019 -
1.204
2.07 2.67 5.50 6.13 4.23 1.21 .41
4 4 4 4 4 4 3

3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1.75
8
1.858 2.051 1.982 1.536 1.020 .770
.
259
. 19C .208 .328 .530 .400 .240
1.45
4
.371 -.453 .485 i.041 1.C85 -.121
.67 .77 1 o 21 1.20 .65 .15 .10
2.25
0
2.372 2. 681 2.693 2.368 1.890 1.499
.
198
. 163 .153 .220 .441 .380 .266
.208 . 278 -1.429 .892 .472 -.019 -1.2^
4
2.07 2.67 5.50 6. 13 4.23 1.21 .41
Q
P1
04
H
te)
w
H
J
R AH
C
L'
KtLAT
I
Gu
COF
FICHRT F'Jrs
MONTH
i.

STA 11C LU


t* I T
h u J
K k
= NT
MONTi-
i

110 1.000 .
=
)'7

111 . 997 l.OCO


UTH PR CEO INti MONTH
AT ABVE STAT
ION
11? .588 .538

111 66
3
. 013

RAW
CClRRELAT1
Gi'J
COfcF
FICIcN
TS
FOR
MUNTH
11

STA 110 111


U!TH
CURK
cNT
MMTH

110 l. IC
C
.974

111 .974 1..0C
0


hITH PRECEDING MONTH AT
ABUVc STAT
ION
11C .881 944

111 .982 994


NOTE: KmtUning
monthi not
RECRDED.
ANO 1
ECN
ST
ITUTcU FLOvJS

STA VEA k 10 11 12 1 2 3
110 1904 3 4 3 4 13 47
110 19C5 33 6 u 7 14 34
Un 1906 3 3 5 49 23 152
110 1907 0 6 14 26 33 64
UC 190 8 7 6 12 13 19 37
STA YEAR 10 11 12 1 2 3
111 19C4 12 14 13 12 37 134
111 19C5 119 38 23 28 51 116
111 1906 11 12 \h 14
6
68 330
111 1907 31 23 43 88 101 248
lli 190 8 34E 2o 39c 4
7E
59 116E
ADJUSTcu FRCOULNCV
STATISTICS

STA ITEM 10 11 12

1 2 3
4 5 6 7 8 9
62 1 41 70 14 7 7
4 7 88 83 la 5 3
110 200 288 216 43 12
118 122 124 65 16 6
48 55 36 11 5 5
^ 5 6 7 8 9
212 5 90 431 123 65 43
165 366 386 116 28 13
287 682 1010 1000 270 67
403 563 625 454 121 33E
136E 279E 315E 98E 436 30E
8 9
*815 .715 .849 1.130 1.290 1.758 1.858 2.051 1.982 1.536 1.020
.770
"" ~ ~ * 190 .208.328 .530
.4CC .240
.371 -.453 .485 1.041 1.085 -.121
.77 1.21120 .65 .15 10
MEAN .815 .715 . 849 1.130 1.29C 1.75
8
STD
DEV

<t44
.130 .262 .439 . 164 .259
SKEW 1.211 -.835 .220 . C71 .626 1.45
4
INCRMT .10 .10 . 10 .20 .20 6
7

111 ME
A'J
1.459 1.321 1.386 1.674 1.78
3
STD DtV .409 .200 .224 .409 .158
SKEW .806 .0*3 06B -.239 .297
INCRMT .43 .22 .24 . 69 . 64

2.24
0
2.354 2.
678
2.709 2.371 1.892 1
.5X8
.20
7
. 186 .160 . 198 .439 .379 .262
.
741
.399 -.725 . VC
6
.908 .581 -
.785
2.07 2.67 5.50 6. 13 4.23 1.21 *4i
TOTAL
375
343
1104
600
254
TOTAL
1686
1449
3899
2733
1222
STA lin 111
lil l.or.
o
.995
il .995 l.CO
O
11C .588 .531
111 .652 .
:
J
96
CONSISTENT CORelAT IN rtATiUX FOR MONTH 10
WITH CURReNT MONTH
WITH PKcCEOiNG MONTH AT ABOVE STATION
CONSISTENT CORRELATION MATRIX FUR MUNTH 11
WITH CURRF.NT MONTH
WITH PRcCtDING MONTH AT ABOVE STATION NOTE: RmcUning montiii not
ihom.
STA 110 111
ne l.OOC .
967
111 .967 1.10
0
no .881 .922
ni .972 .990

MAXIM
UM
VOLUM
tS
FO
R
PERIO
U
1 OF 5 YEARS OF
RECORDED
AND RECUNSTITUTtD
FLOWS

STA 1C 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1-MO 6-MO 54-MO AV
MO
110 33 6 14 49 33 152 113 200 288 216 43 12 288 1009 2656 45
111 119 38 43 146 101 330 403 682 ICIO 1000 270 67 1010 3579 10872 183
MINIMUM VOLUMES
STA 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1-Mu 6-MO 54-MO AV
MO
110 3 3 3 4 13 34 47 55 36 11 5 3 3 36 2564

111 11 12 13 12 37 116 136 279 315 98 28 13 11 196 10214

PGS 18 EXHIBIT 4
GENEPATED FlrtS FOR
PeRlUU
1
STA VEAfc 10 1 i 12 1
11
0
19^9 3

12 99
11
0
i 910 11 7 19 27
11
0
1911 o t 4 11
11
0
1912 11 7 14 79
11
0
1913 2 3 8 28
ST
A
YfcAR 1C li 12 1
11
1
1909 1 6 17 33 Z b
11
1
1 910 52 2 ^ ?4 99
Ul 1 911 29 2 J 15 38
11
1
1912 54 it. 45 218
Ul 1913 b 9 23 92

GENERATED
fLLh
iS
FK
PERiGU >

STA YEAR 10 11 12 l
110 1909 6 c 9 27
110 1910 6 5 7 34
110 1911 2 9 8 1 9
110 1912 2 3 4 29
110 1913 19 7 13 4
STA YEAP 10 11 12 1
111 19C9 2b 21 29 96
Ul 1910 28 2C 23 113
Ul 1911 122 42 44 35
Ul 1912 10 12 14 99
Ul 1913 87 37 46 15
2
37
19
36
37 16
2
96
55
81
129
+9
2 28 3 4 lo 19 13
2
97
129
52
62
44
3
43
131
1 6
42
58
3
1 t 5
291
344
182
185
3
59
84
28
53
34
3
214
329
88
169
114
4 5 6 7 8
74 124 162 47 26
K6 172 41 304 65
10
3
267 744 766 123
66 i 10 159 35 8
62 120 59 25 13
4 5 6 7 d
16 4 80 o50 418 197
293 606 1037 1561 364
241 833 2588 3593 626
189 4 75 642 217 59
167 4 74 3 99 209 129

4 5 0 7 8
90 150 118 31 8
116 217 201 65 21
38 45 37 9 4
73 127 161 72 26
57 90 52 11 4
4 5 6 7 8
248 5 9t> 649 225 69
280 727 631 433 165
138 257 309 77 30
238 495 669 519 205
196 396 34b 87 33
9
10
12
13
4
10
9
55
69
73
27
60
9
4
10
3
11
4
9
24
bu
19
62
21
L
TEST DATA 7a3-X6L2340 MONTHLY STttEAMFtaw SIMULATION - NOV
1970
COMPUTE AND USE GENERALIZED STATISTICS
IYRA IMNTH IrtNAL MXRCS NYWG NYHXf! NPAS3 IPCHQ IPCHS
1 04 H) 1 5 10 10 1-0 -0
MAXIMUM VOLUMES OF HECOliOEO FLOWS
STA 10 n la 1 2 3 Q
no 34

i* 4*3 33 isa lif
l
11

11* 30 43 146 101 330 403
MINIMUM VOLUMES
STA 10 11 12 4
A
Z 3 4
no 3 3 3 4 13 34 46
Ul 11 12 13 13 37 116 163
FRE5UENCV STATISTICS
ST
A
1 T E
M
10 U 12 i 2
1
O
M r A
N
,*15 ,?15 ,049 1,130 1,290

sin
OEV
4 4 ,130

.39 .164

oKHW 1.211 -.333 ,220 ,071 .626

INCSM
T
,10 ,50 ,10 .20 .21

YEA3 3 5 5 5 5-
Ul AN 1,4:5
9
1,298 1,335 1.673 1,784

STO
f-V
,(b9 .?a3 ,223 ,473 ,132

3KEW 1,117 .620 1 ,004
.243
.256

INC^'T ,22 ,24

,64

Y C A
K S
4 4 4 4

Ef.'l'EN
CY STA7
I3TIC5 AFTER
ADJUSTHENT3

S
TA
ITEM 10 11 ! 2 1 2
5
10
rlEAN ,615 715 ,aaq 1.130 1,290

3Ti)
!
'&V

,130 ,262 .43* ,164

S'-
<Ev(
uan -,335 ,220 ,071 ,626

NCRMT .10 ,10 ,10 ,20 .21
U 1 ?:
A N
i, 1,334 1.385 1.669 1,72

STD
D[-.V
.07 ,209 ,224 ,409 .158

8*Urt un
7
,620 1.004 -
2'J3
.&

INCWHT ,?2 ,24 ,69 ,64
I-
vo

NST
A
NCOMB NTNDM
NCTV
IGNR
I
NPRO
J
IYRP
J
e*Q -0 0 0 2 0 o
5 6 7 a 9 !M0
200 288 216 3 12 68
682 1010 1000 270 67 1010
5 6 7 8 9 iMO
56 36 U 5 3 3
366 386 116 28 13 11
6-MO 54-MO
1 009 2656
3579-99999998
6-MO 54M0 36 519 196 99999999
3 4 5 6 7 6 9
1.75
8
.259
1.45
4
.67
5
1
558
,190
371
.77
5
2.051
,200
-.<*53
1.21
5
1.982
.328
.83
1,20
5
1,536
,530
1.041
,65
5
1.020
,400
1.085
,13
5
,770
,240
-
.121
,10
5
3,26
1
.213
.eos
2.07
4
2.407
.166
.27 9
2.67
4
2,734
,115
"19^29
5.50
a
2,760
,187
.892
6.13
4
a,aba
,472
4,23
4
1,953
,408
".019
1.21
4
1,52
4
.302
>.9
39
.39
4
3 a 5 6 7 6 9
1.75
8
.259
.67
1.858
,190
,371
.77
2.051
.208
453
1.21
1,982
,326
,45
1.20
1,536
,530
1,041
.65
1 #020
,400
1,085
,15
*770
,240
-
,121
.10
2<25
0 n
1 93
.Ol
2.372
,163
.27a
2.67
2,601
o 153
-1,429
5,50
2,693
.220
,692
6,13
2,363
.441
,472
4.23
1,890
,360
<*.019
1.21
1.50
7
.265
-

.07
.939
,39
AV MO 5 20#
AV HO
PAGE 20 EXHIBIT 4
KAW C f 1K r- e L A T r fj N CHeFF IC IENT.3 FOR MOnTH 10 STA
HO 11!
WITH CURRENT MONTH
UO 1.000 ,997 111 .997 1.000
WITH PRECEDING MDUTH AT AHOVE STATION
UO ,5rta ,57rt
ni ,bh i ,6Sb
NAW CORRELATION CHErFICIENTS FOH MONTH 11 STA 110 111
WITH CURRENT MONTH
510 U0O0 ,97a 111 974 1.000
WITH PRECEDING MONTH AT ABUVE STATION
110 ,81 ,944 ?!! ,5a2 ,99
NOTE: Remaining months not shown
RECQROED AND RECONSTITUTED FLOHS
STA YE&K 10 n la
110 1904 3 4 3
no 1905 33 fe 5
110 5 906 3 3 5
no 1907 h 6 14
110 190a 7 6 12
STA YEAR 10 11 12
113 1904 12 14 13
111 nos m 38 23
ni 1906 ii 12 16
in no 7 3t 23 43
in 1900 loe ase 39E

1 2 3 4
4 13 47 62
7 14 34 47
49 23 152 110
26 33 64 lia
13 19 37 40
1 2 3 4
12 37 134 212
26 31 m 165
16 6 330 287
ae 101 246 403
48E 59E 131E 153E

5 6 7 8 9
141 70 14 7 7
8t 83 la 5 3
200 28ti 16 43 12
122 124 65 16 6
55 36 n 5 5
5 6 7 6 9
590 431 tes 65 43
366 386 116 28 13
6B2 1010 10C0 270 67
563 625 454 121 32
216E 253E 117E 46E 29E
ADJUSTED FREQUENCY STATISTICS
ST
A
ITEM 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
UO MEAN ,815 ,715 .849 1.130 1.290 1.758 1,858 2.051 1,902 1.536 1,020 ,770

STD
DEV
,444 .130 .2 62 .439 .164 .259 ,no .206 ,328 ,530 .400 ,240

SKEW 1 211 -.635 .220 ,071 ,626 1.454 ,371 .453 .485 1,041 1.085 ,1
21

INCRMT .10 .10 .10 .20 .21 ,67 ,77 1,21 1.20 ,65 .15 ,10
11
1
MEAN 1.447 1.319 1.386 1.675 1.783 2.250 2,363 2.657 2.691 2.386 1.900 1,51
3

STD
DEV
.407 .199 .225 .409 .158 .193 ,173 ,200 .224 .424 .372 .263

SKEW *972 .077 .068 -.261 .281 .7 58 .626 "1.140 ,389 .957 ,550 -
.696

INCHMT .44 .22 .24 69 .64 2.07 2,67 5.50 6.13 4.23 1.21 ,39
TOTAL
375
343
no4
6U0 2 54
TOTAL 1666 S 449 3iS99 2732 1148
CONSISTENT CORRELATION MATRIX FOR MONTH 10
STA UO 111
WITH CURRENT MONTH
110 1,000 ,<>17
111 ,997 1,000
WITH PRECEDING MONTH AT ABOVE STATION
110 .588 .578
111 ,660 .651
CONSISTENT CORRELATION MATRIX FOR MONTH 11
WITH CURRENT MONTH
WITH PRECEOING MONTH AT ABOVE STATION
STA 110 111
110 1.000
ni ,9f>4 1,00
0
110 ,881 ,903
111 ,974 ,904
NOTE: Remaininq months not shown
MAXIMUM VOLUMES FOR PERIOD 1 OF S YEAR3 OF RECORDED AND
RECONSTITUTED FLOWS
110 33 6 14 49 33 152 118 00
Ul 11
5
38 43 146 101 330 403 682
1INIM
UM
VOLUMES

STA 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5
110 3 3 3 4 13 34 47 55
111 n i?. 13 12 37 116 153 216
GENERALIZED STATISTICS
6 7 s 9 1-MO 6"M 0 54-MO AV
MO
2 08 ai6 43 12 208 1009 2656 5
1010 1000 270 67 1010 3579 10797 102

6 7 e 9 1-MO 6-MO 54-MO AV
MO
36 11 5 3 3 36 2564

253 116 28 13 11 196 10240


3
TI
3T2 RAV

11
0
110 ,774

11
1
110 ,961

Ul Ul ,709


STA AVMX AVMN SDAv MAXM
O
MINM
O

110 1.96
0
.767 ,300 6 11

Ul 2,57
8
1,38
4
.271 T 12
J?5v
<2
tsl
t-*

CONSISTENT CORRELATION MATRIX FOR MONTH 10 STA no Ul
WITH CURRENT MONTH
UO 1.000 .981 Ul .991 1,000
WITH PRECED1N6* MONTH AT ABOVE STATION
UO .924 ,33 Ul .833
s
939
CONSISTENT CORRELATION MATRIX FOR MONTH U STA UO Ul
WITH CURRENT MONTH
UO 1.000 ,981 Ul .981 1.000
WITH PRECEDING MONTH AT ABOVE STATION
UO .924 .833 Ul .853 ,939
NOTE: Remalning months not shown
MAXIM
UM
VOLUME
S
FO
R
PERIO
D
1 OF 5
YEARS
OF RECORD
ED
ANO
RE
STA 10 11 ia 1 2 3 a 5
UO '33 6 14 49 33 15
2
118 200
Ul 119 3 43 146 101 33
0
403 682
MINIM
UM
STA
VOLUME
S
10
11 12 1 2 3 4 5
110 3 3 3 4 13 34 47 55
SU 11 IR 13 12 37 11
6
153 216

6 ? 8 9 1-tfO 6-MO 54-MO AV
0
288 216 43 12 .288 1009 2656 45
1010 1000 270 67 1010 3579 10797 182
e> 7 8 9 1-MO 6M0 54-MO AV
MO
36 11 5 3 3 36 2564

253 116 28 13 n 196 10240


es
m
to
N>
M
H
O
PAGE 23 EXHIBIT 4
GENRATD FLOWS POP PERIOD 1
STA YEAR 10 U
UO 1 6 5
no a U 9
110 3 9 7
UO 4 S 7
no 5 17 21
110 6 6 6
110 7 10 U
110 8 4 5
110 9 4 3
no 10 2 2
STA YEAK 10 n
U! 1 24 22
Ul 2 03 39
Ul 3 38 31
Hl a 17 23
111 5 54 71
Ul 6 ga 26
Ul 7 33 39
111 0 IB 19
111 9 17 15
Ul 10 7 7

12 1 2 3
14 29 43 36
23 45 45 56
14 34 43 AS
6 12 25 62
14 7 7 19
13 26 35 SO
24 56 63 82
6 23 57 121
5 10 27 65
2 3 5 27
12 1 2 3
29 65 106 i 06
49 103 124 *54
34 76 121 130
22 32 59 137
45 25 21 44
29 60 90 130
50 120 20(3 232
20 49 123 269
14 24 59 142
5 7 13 51
MAXIMUM VOLUMES POR PERIOD
STA 10 11 12
110 17 21 24
Ul 54 71 50
MINIMUM VOLUMES
STA 10 u 12
110 2 2 2
m 7 7 5

OF 10
YEARS
OF
;
SYNTHE
TIC
FLHW
S
1 2 3 4 5
56 05 12
1
211 392
ta
o
208 26
9
500 77
1 2 3 a S
3 5 19 30 68
7 13 44 92 163
4
74
85
167
61
SO
6S
101
an
106
38
4
102
222
378
169
109
174
280
500
256
92
6
13<
975
6
20
277
5 6 7 8 9 TOTAL
129 66 31 21 11 465
137 62 27 16 9 525
392 90 19 7 3 955
6S 38 25 21 14 346
166 107 fla 20 8 484
143 104 48 17 6 519
lia 20 n 8 5 539
195 34 9 6 4 677
101 t>6 23 4 1 495
185 134 60 12 3 473
5 fe 7 6 9 TOTAL
272 543 255 169 92 1865
299 529 206 136 67 1993
774 fl76 228 70 26 2790
163 313 167 161 83 1366
297 806 446 192 77 2189
294 79| 441 173 53 229
279 277 124 67 45 1754
75 364 95 53 44 2029
385 sa& 303 57 16 1874
312 975 57-3 138 31 2211

7 8 9 1M0 6-MO S4M0 AV
60 21 14 392 797 2691
57
3
192 92 975 3507 sosia

7 8 9 1MQ 6M0 54M0 AV
9 4 1 1 14 1935

95 53 16 5 56 7809

TcST OATA - 72 3-X6-L2340 tdNTHLV S Tfcfc AMFLCM SIMULATICN -
MOV 1970 STATISTiCS FURNSHtO
IVRA IMNTH IANAL MXRCi NYKG nYMXb NPASS IPCHO IPCHS NSTA NCJM
NTNM NCSTY IONRL NPROJ IYRPJ MTHPJ LYRPJ
10 -0
- O 10 -O -O -
O 3 -O -O -n -n -r
GENE RAT fcl) FLOHS FR Pt-IU 1
STA YEAR 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 TOTAL
10
7
1 4 3 237 18 28 77 30 15 1C 3 1 1 427
107 2 a 3 236 13 44 22 9 19 4 2 l 0 361
10
7
3 i 2 19 6 la 61 17 18 8 3 1 0 154
107 4 2 21 23 24 74 3C 14 7 2 1 0 199
107 5 i 2 15 35 25 89 34 14 10 3 1 1 230
10
7
6 i 2 10 8 34 67 18 13 5 2 1 c 163
107 7 i 2 25 31 28 111 38 18 7 2 1 0 264
10
7
8 4 2 43 157 25 106 27 15 6 2 1 0 368
10
7
9 1 1 2 8 25 47 14 12 4 2 l 0 117
107 10 0 1 4 14 25 75 24 12 4 2 1 0 162
STA YEAR 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 TOTAL
110 1 16 8 26 16 20 64 98 224 214 185 31 9 911
UO 2 26 8 28 4 9 22 31 63 45 11 5 6 258
110 3 3 4 B 14 17 24 48 145 125 48 15 6 457
110 4 5 10 16 19 76 89 131 137 71 18 10 588
110 5 4 4 9 18 22 73 96 191 267 121 20 7 832
110 6 15 5 8 4 17 47 54 90 30 U 5 4 341
lie 7 4 4 12 28 29 79 129 126 126 36 13 8 594
110 8 17 8 13 66 28 52 74 107 88 32 10 3 498
110 9 3 4 4 4 14 24 41 73 46 XC o 3 232
110 10 2 3 5 7 20 52 67 83 64 24 6 8 341
t=
K
45
M
-I
PAGE 25 EXHIBIT 4
ST
A
YcAR IC 11 12 t
&
2 3
m 1 76 4r 1C4 47 59 250
11
1
2 114 5C 1CT. 13 29 69
Ul 3 13 lH 28 3 56 123
Ul H 27 21 30 43 70 227
Ul 5 ZZ 19 36 54 76 222
11
1
6 6 5 24 3f 13 57 113
Ul 7 22 17 28 82 IC3 271
11
1
8 d2 3i 42 181 76 217
11
1
9 Ifl 15 15 15 46 99
1U 1>' 9 13 19 24 7i 163

MAXIM
UM
VOLUM
ES
FO
R
Pck0
0
1 OF l?'
VfcARS
OF SYNTHE
TIC
FLOn
S
STA 10 11 12 l 2 3 4 5
107 8 3 237 157 44 Ul 38 19
110 26 8 29 66 29 79 129 224
111 114 50 10 4 181 103 27
1
373 690
MINIM
UM
STA
VOLUM
ES
10
U 12 1 2 3 4 5
107 0 l 2 6 18 2 9 12
UO 2 3 4 4 9 22 31 63
111 9 13 15 13 29 69 163 295
4
284
163
209
294
344
208
373
215
177
201
6
10
267
991
6
4
45
297
5 6 7 8 9
o33 991 1354 169 63
295 297 88 46 42
613 606 305 102 46
507 572 327 168 71
6 9
0
843 596 135 47
*+
3
383 13C 24 24
643 5 94 252 109 61
535 492 201 87 19
336 323 ea 39 19
3 63 411 144 46 52
TOTAL 40 7C 1306 2148 2357 3084 1514 2555 2178 1240 1601
7 8 9 1-MC1 6-MU 54-MO AV
0
3 1 1 237 405 1346 21
185 31 10 267 816 2951 42
354 169 71 1354 3681 12588 184
7 8 9 1-MO 6-MCl 54-MO AV
MO
2 1 0 0 8 751

10 5 3 2 26 1712

88 24 19 9 123 766 8

TE3T DATA - 723-X6-L2340 MONTHLY STREAMFLOW SIMULATION - NOV
1970 GENERALIZED STATISTICS FURNISHED
IYRA IMNTH IANAL MXRCS NYRG NYMXG NpASS IpCHQ IPCHS NSTA NCQMB
NTNOM NCSTY IGNRL NPROJ IYRPJ HTHPJ LYRPJ
-0 10 -0 0 10 10 -0 -0 -0 3
INCONSIST
ENT
CORRE
L
MATRI
X
ADJU5TE
D
0 1 2 1,194
INCONSIST
ENT
COSRE
L
MATRI
X
AOJUSTE
D
0 1 2 1,094
INCONSIST
ENT
CORRE
L
MATRI
X
ADJUSTE
O
0 1 2 1,011
RAM CORRELATION COEFFICIENTS FOR MONTH 10
STA 107 110 Ul

WITH CURRENT
MONTH
107 1.000 .741 .744
no .741 1.00
0
.965
Ul .704 .965 1 ,000

WITH PRECEDING
MONTH
107 .681 .567 .570
110 .567 .913 .83S
Ul ,570 ,836 .913
HAW CORRELATIDN COEFFICIENTS FOR MONTH U
STA 107 UO Ul

WITH CURRENT
MONTH
107 1.000 ,741 ,744
UO .741 1,00
0
.965
Ul ,74 .965 1.000

WITH PRECEQING'
MONTH
107 ,531 .567 ,570
110 .567 .913 .638
Ul .570 ,038 .913
ABOVE STATION
NOTE: Remaining months not shown
GENERATED
FLOWS STA
YEAR
FO
R
10
PERIOD 1
11
12
107 1 2 9 29
107 2 1 3 14
107 3 1 2 e
107 4 1 4 7
107 5 0 2 11
107 6 1 l 3
107 7 1 % 6
107 a 2 2 5
107 9 0 1. 2
107 10 0 2 6
9
1 2 3 4 5
13 31 25 24 10
7 53 72 32 24
5 9 15 9 13
11 20 30 36 13
20 25 5b 80 22
3 22 44 18 5
12 27 43 60 37
48 30 3 9 8
4 14 20 14 5
<9 20 14 14 5
6 1 8 9 TOTAL 3 111 19
7 3 1 1 218 b 4 O l 73 9 2 10 134 9 2 1 1
231
2 10 0 100
9 2 11 200
3 2 11 145
2 3 10 66
2 2 i 7b
PGE 27 EXHIBIT
STA YEAR O 11 12
A
2 3
110 1 14 21 .34 34 40 49
110 a 3 4 13 13 23 39
110 3 10 10 9 13 20 17
110 a 6 S 13 23 37 50

10
5 10 7 20 31 39 53
110 6 7 6 9 8 22 2
110 7 3 2 8 31 72 72
110 3 6 10 12 32 40 41
no 9 5 4 6 9 15 17
110 10 6 5 12 17 27 23
STA YEAR 10 U 12 1 2 3
m 1 57 90 98 103 131 217
m 2 14 22 32 45 89 132
ni 3 38 O 29 29 62 81
111 a 31 35 34 54 132 22!
ni 5 as 39 55 95 148 222
m 6 26 23 25 25 70 104
ni 7 16 12 15 64 217 311
ni a 33 38 33 93 119 2
5fl
in 9 24 19 17 27 53 66
ni 10 26 29 32 57 106 99
MAXIMUM VOLUMES FOR PERIOD i OF 10 YEARS OF 3YNTHETIC FLOWS
STA 10 n 12 1 2 3 4 5
107 2 9 29 <0 53 72 00 37
110 1 21 34 34 72 72 208 411
111 57 90 98 IOS 217 311 633 1462
MINIMUM VOLUMES
STA 10 n 12 1 2 3 5
107 0 s 2 3 9 14 9 5
no 3 2 6 8 S5 17 28 51
111 14 12 15 25 53 68 132 190
< 5 a 7 0 9 TOTAL
9 A 86 6 3 25 7 3 670
147 11 299 129 29 12 1122
28 200 6 J 50 16 6 462
04 166 191 110 47 13 746
IOS 873 190 55 15 6 804
308 23 a 9S 25 5 3 668
126 268 137 28 16 7 770
33 105 59 3 t 20 5 397
46 9? $6 35 20 306
12 51 60 37 12 8 300
4 5 6 7 e 9 TOTAL
356 950 3ia 163 51 33 2589
633 1300 1034 708 235 96 4340
Hl 61 326 223 109 58 1997
383 649 619 478 305 97 3036
546 1259 749 263 105 8 3594
596 94Q 326 iao 32 30 2371
576 i fea 701 196 11! 73 3754
132 490 272 165 129 42 1704
191 00 130 172 114 44 1309
210 190 863 170 91 52 1325

6 7 8 9 1M0 6M0 S4M0 AV
MD
9 4 1 i 80 216 798 12
299 129 47 13 411 1053 37S9 52
1034 708 305 97 1462 4049 15176 217
6 7 6 9 1 **M0 6-MO 54-M0 AV
MO
2 1 0 0 0 6 513

46 25 5 3 2 43 2200

180 163 32 30 12 168 9433

EXHIBIT 5
DEFINITIONS - 723-X6-L2340
AC1 - Alienation coefficient for station 1
AC2 - Alienation coefficient for station 2
AC3 - Alienation coefficient for station 3
ADJ - Plus sign indicates valu smaller than upstream
sum by
tndem test
ADJ1 - Equal sign indicates valu adjusted by tndem test
ALCFT(l,K) - Alienation coefficient array
ALOG - Computer librar y function of natural logarithm
ANLCG - Number of logarithms
ANYRS - Number of years of record
AV(l,K) - Mean logarithm
AVG(I, K) - Average of the generated deviates
AVGQ(l) - Average monthly flow for a station
'
AVMN(l) - Average logarithm of flow for minimum 3
consecutive months
AVMX(l) - Average logarithm of flow for mximum 3
consecutive months
B(L) - Beta coefficient
BETA(l,K,L) - Beta coefficient for generation equation BLANK -
Blank space
;

CROUT - Program subroutine to solve simrultaneous equations
CSTAC(KX,K) - Coefficient by which flows are mu.ltip.lied before
adding in a combination
DABS - Computer library function of absolute valu of
double precisin
number
DQ(l,K) - Increment of flow -
DTRMC - Determination coefficient
E - Letter E indicates estimated valu
FAC - Temporary factor
I - Index for calendar month
IA - Indicator in column 1 of first card for each Job
IANAL - Indicator, positive valu calis for analysis
IENDF - End of file indicator
IGNRL - Indicator, + 2 calis .for computing generalized
statistics
and + 1 or + 2 calis for using generalized statistics for
generating flows
IMN(l) - Month sequence number of last month of 3 driest
consecutive
months
IMNTH - Calendar month number for first month of water
year
IMX(l) - Month sequence number of last month of 3 wettest
consecutive
months
INDC - Transfer indicator
IP - Month number for preceding month
IPASS - Sequence number of pass (subset of stations)
IPCHQ - Indicator, positive valu calis for writing
discharges on tape
IPCHS - Indicator, positive valu calis for punching
statistics
IQ(l) - Fixed-point conversin of flow vales
EXHIBIT 5
IQTAP

Tape number for storing flows
IRCOH

Indicator, positive valu calis for flow
reconstitution .
ISKZ

Positive valu calis for varying flov increment
(DQ) to make skew zero.
IST(K,L)

Sequence number of upstream station for tndem
test
ISTA(K) - Station number
ISTAC(XX,K) - Station number in a combination
ISTM - Temporary station number
ISTAP - Station sequence number for all passes
ISTAT - Tape number for storing statistics
ISEN(L) - Station number of downstream tndem station
ISTT(X,L) - Station number of upstream tndem station
ISTX(L) - Station number of independent station for
consistences test
ISTY(L) - Station number of dependent station for
consistences test
ITEMP - Temporary variable
ITMP - Temporary variable
ITMPP - Temporary variable
ITP - Temporary variable >
ITRNS - Transfer indicator
IX - Temporary variation of I
IXX - Argument for random number function
IYR - Number of current year
IYRA - First year of data
IYRPJ - Year of start of flow projection
J - Index for year
JA - Sequence number of projection year
JTMP(L) - Matrix column number
JTP - Matrix column number
JX - Temporary variation of J
JXTMP - Temporary variation of J
K - Index for station
KM - Dimensin limit for number of consecutive months
KPASS - Dimensin limit for number of passes
XSTA - Dimensin limit for total number of stations
XSTAC(XX,K) - Index number of station in a combination
KSTAP - Dimensin limit for total number of stations
KX - Temporary variation of K or combination sequence
KYR - Dimensin limit for number of consecutive years
L- - Index for related station
LA - Temporary variation of L
LQTAP - Number of records up to present position on tape
ICffAP
LSTAT - Number of records up to present position on tape
I'STAT
LTMP(L) - Matrix row number
LTP - Matrix row number
LTRA - Letter A
LX - Temporary variation of L
LYRPJ - Last year of each projection
M - Serial number of month
MA - Sequence number of month of projected flow
2
EXHIBIT5
MO(l) - Calendar month number
MPASS - Temporary counter for number of passes
MTHPJ - Calendar month of start of each projection
MXRCS - Number of years in each period for which mximum
and minimum recorded and reconstituted flows are desired
N - Serial number of period of flows
NC - Counter to prevent continuous looping
NCA - Counter to prevent continuous looping
NCAB(l,K,L) - Number of vales and cross products used to compute
correlation coefficients
NCB ~ Transfer indicator
NCCMB - Number of combinations of stations max. and min.
quantities are to be computed
NCSTY - Number of consistency tests
NINDP - Number of independent variables in regression study
.
NJ - Number of years in computation sequence
NLOG(l,K) - Number of logarithms used to compute frequency
statistics
NMNMX - Number of months following dry season and preceding
wet season
NMXMN - Number of months following wet season and preceding
dry season
NPASS - Total number of passes in job
NPROJ - Number of projections of future flows from present
conditions
NQ - Counter for number of flows
NQTAP - Total number of records saved on tape IQTAP
NSMX(L) - Number of upstream stations in tndem test
NSTA - Number of stations in analysis
NSTAA - NSTA + 1
NSTAC(KX) - Number of stations in a combination
NSTAT - Total number of records saved on tape ISTAT
NSTAX - NSTA + NSTA
NSTNP(l) - Number of stations in a particular pass
NSTX - Number of stations in current pass that occurred in
preceding passes
NSTXX - NSTX + 1
NSUM(K) - Number of stations upstream from a station for
tndem test
NTNDM - Number of tndem tests
NVAR - Total number of variable in regression study
NYMXG - Number of years of generated flows in each period
for which mximum and minimum flows are desired
NYRG - Total number of years of generated flows
NYRS - Number of years of recorded flows
Q(M,K) - Monthly flow
QM(l) - Monthly flow
QMIN(l,K) - Minimum flow
QFREV() - Flow for previous month
QRCM^K) - Identification symbol
QSTAP(l) - Temporary storage of QPREV
R(K,L) - Correlation coefficient in a given matrix
RA(l,K,L) - Correlation coefficient
RAV(K,L) - Average correlation coefficient for 12 calendar
months
3
EXHIBIT 5
RMAX - Mximum consistent correlation coefficient
RMIN - Mnimum consistent correlation coefficient
RNGEN(IXX) - Program random number function
Rl - Correlation coefficient being tested
R2 - Correlation coefficient being tested
R3 - Correlation coefficient being tested
SD(I,K) - Standard devaition of logarithms for
calendar month
SDAV(K) - Average standard deviation for 12
consecutive months
SDV(I,K) - Standard deviation of the generated deviates
SKEW(I,K) - Skew coefficient of logarithms for calendar
month
SMQ(j,K) - Mximum or minimum flow for month or
duration
SQA(I,K,L) - Sum of squares of first variable
SQB(l,X,L) - Sum of squares of second variable
SUM - Average correlation coefficient of matrix
SUMA(l,K,L
)
- Sum of first variable
SUMB(I,K_,L) - Sum of second variable
T - Large positive constant
TEM? - Temporary variable
TMP - Temporary variable
TMPA - Temporary variable
TMPB - Temporary variable
TMPP - Temporary variable
TP - Temporary variable
X(I) - Valu of independent variable in regression
equation
XINCR(l) - Iteration valu for flow increment
XPAB(l,K,L
)
- Sum of cross products of first and second
variables
4
EXHIBIT 5
O o o
C 723*6L2?3/iO MONT'^L Y {LA'PLr?* StfLiTXUN HEC C flf
fi US* MOV 1
C ***** * )_ 13
f
3 A R y FljMCT ICN3 AlOGr 0A93 ************
PPOGRAM SUB0TIfiE CRCUT,BXCN SEE COHHE^TS IN SNGEN INOEXES
ISCALENDA& MONTH JaYgAp KaSTA LBRELATED STA M^SUCCESSIVE MQNTH
oi^EiMSinw
,0no),wao,u),
.ALCrTC12,S0),Av(l?,J0),vG(12,10),AVSC(1 O3,AVHN 10),AVH
103 i
,BETA13,10,10),Oo(l?,10 5, Ihn(IO)TMX10),10(13),
ISTAflO), JTHp(9),LTPf 10) , j-o f 12) ,KCAS(12,10,20),
.NLOR1210),O120,10) ,5H 12), tJHH( 12,10), QPREV10),QB(
1201,10),
.QSTAPf100).Atl2,10,2r),KAvl0,lC),3 1 a#10),30AV
10),30V112,10),
,3KEM(12.10),SH(30,10),Sl!A(i2,lfl,2
0)
f
SQP(l2l2#20)3UHAl210#20), J.S1IHR 12,10,20), X (10),<ISCR
(12), XPA3J 12,1 0,20),
.C8TACf2,lO,S),ISTAC2,lC),lSTNClO),ISTTJO
f
10),l3TX(103
,I,1TY10) ,K3TAC2,10,5) ,ns
m
X (10) ,NSTAC2,J) ,N3TNP5) ,
.NSUM(10,5) ,McOf<B(5) ,MTNC^(5),I3TC10, 10,5)
DOURLE PRECISION R,
cnmmon dtgmc,nindp,8
DATA LTPA/IHA/,BLANK/IH /,E/IHE/,ADJ/IH*/,AOJI/IHS/
10 FORMAT(lHl)
20 PORMAT (IX, 15.1916)
3C FDRMAT(lx,l7,
,
3l8)
0 FnSHATlXA3,<5A,!0A4)
50 FPRHAT1X*I3,M,12F6.0)
60 FOPHAT(lX,F7.0,9K8.0)
7C FORMAT (1X,I3I4,12F6,3)
SO PORMAT (IX,1712F6.3)
90 FOPMAT (IX,712F6.1)
1PC FOBMATlX*I,I612l8,I10)
11C FnRHAT (Al,A39A,10A4)
120 FDHMAT (1X,I7,3F&.3,2I6)
130 FIBHAT (y23H GENERALI2ED STATI3TICS//13H !5Tl ST2 AV) i
c FORMAT ( /3SH STA AVNX AVMN SDAV MA8M MlN0)
ISTAT=8
i3TAP=q
KPAS5S5
KSTAP=lOO
KSTAslO
KYRSIOS)
KM5KVS * 12 + 1 K'3TA = 0
c waste caros until an a im cdlhn I, FIRST titls caro
C ** CARO A 4*
150 READ(5, 110) JA,3HgM,l),Hsi,20)
IF (JA.N'E.LTRA) GO TO 150 WRITE(6 * 10)
REAn(5,ao)C(8
M
Q(H,K),HS1,20),Ka2,3)
WRITE 6.0) ((SMOtHjK),M1#20),K*l,3)
C ** CARO 8 CARO C **
READ(5,30)I*RA,IHVTH,IAKALMXBC9#K**G*NvnXG#NPA3S,IPCH8
IPCHSNSTA
l,NCnM8,NTN0M,**CSTY, ISMU. ,NPROJ,IYSPJ, ThPJ, lYRPJ C
reHlKATE WITH 5 PLA.VK CAS03, i A IN COL 1 CF FIRST
ITMPalAfclAL+^YRG IFTTMP.6T.0)G0 T9 180 STOP
1 feO PITE 6,170) NYkS,N3TA,NCnMa, JPAS3
170 PnfiHAT /l)H 0IHEN3T0N EXCEEDED , 5X, <JHNvHS, 14 5X,
H*STA, 13, 3X iSHKCnHB,I3,SX*SHIPA8S,13)
Sn TO 15o 1C WRITc 6,19(1)
i<?c FdsmAT /108H IYRA IMNTK IA*AL MXBC8 Nr5 Nv^sG NPA39 IPChQ
IPCH3 1 NSTA NCOMB NTNOM NCSTY IGNL NPROJ IYRPJ TKPJ LYRPJ )
^RITEf>20) iVRA,!.'!*
1
T^jIAN AL,
M
X
t
?C.*,*'YMR,NYf-
,
GNPA?3,IPCH!3,IPCHS INSTA, NCOmB, NT>!0
M
,t'C3TY, IG^L.^PRPJ
I Y SP J i NT Hp J , LyRp j IF (LYRPJ-IYRA.GE.KYH) GO TO 160 C9
* * * * * ST CCNSTANTS **4***i******r*a*is IXXSO
N8TAASM3TA+1
NSTAxsuSTA+MSTA
To<J99'Jg559,
IYRABIYKA-1
970
1002
1003
100#
1005
1006 1007000
1016 1017 1013 1019 1020000 1021 1022 -
1023
1024
1025
1026
1027
1028 1029 1030000
1031
1032
1034
1035
1037
1038 ! 039 1040
1042
1043
1044
1045
1046
1049
1050
1051 1052000 1053
1055
1056
1057
tosa
1059
1060 1061000 1062000
1063
1064
1065
1066 1067 1063
1069
1070
1071
1072
1073
1074
1075
l ESHBIT 6
N 3 T X = 0 N3ri5ti . IP A tSC j
RgWlNfJ 13? 47 NST *T30 L3TAT=Q SHWINO IQTAP
NQTAP30
!.(3TAP=0
DO 195 Jsi , Kf>A3S ^COMf(j3sO MTNDW Cj)30 193 CONTINUE GO TP
270
e 3aV STATIONS FHOM PRgVlgUS PA3SE3 IF NECE3SABY 200
XPA3S=TPA33+1 W&ITEC610}
IF IPASS.GT.XPASS) GC T[J 160 C . ** CASO J **
REAO (5,30 5NC0M(3MTfj0H,NCSTY,S'STi( (IST* (K), *s 1, NSTX
)
WSITEC6*210> IPAS9,(ISTA(X),ICS1
I
N3T)
213 PPRMAT (5H0PA5S ,13/23* STA{3) FBQM PHEVlOuS PASSES , 10I&)
N3T**SN8T+1 REWINO IQTAP (.OjApao REBINO ISTAT MPA 39
2
1 SEAO
CISTAT)
LSTATS
lTP=NVRS*12+i lTEHP = fj.5TMp (MPA3S)
ITMPP=0
DO 250 K=1,MSTS 220 ?EAnnnTAmMP> CO M
a
K 3 ^3i?l?p)
U3TAP5L0TAP+1
IF PI?T fK3 .NE.ITUP) SO TC 220 230 ITHPPSITHPp+1
IFCITHPP.GTlTMp} GO TO 200
SEAO (i<t?4T) ITMP, (AV(J,X)JSDCI,*),SKwClK)DOCI,X), CRETA
(I,K L,5 ,L llTTEMP),AlcFTCl,0,I = i,t2)
LSTAT=LSTAT+1
IF fITHP.ES.l3TA(K3) GO TO 350 Gn 70 230 240 REAOCISTAT)
LSTAT=l_STA7'n HPA33=MPASS+1 !TEWP3aTNPCHPASs3 IT*PP=0 GO TD
230 250 CONTINUE
On 260 Ksl,N$T
N3UM(K,IPA33)BO
on 260 1=1,12 260 NICACI,K}SNVRS 2C IF(TANAL.GT.O) N3TA3NST5<
on 2*0 Tsl,12
MO(T) = If'NTH+I IFMOfI).LT.13)60 TO 280 HnI)=MO{I)ia
280 CONTINUE IFCNCPMH.Le.O) GO TO 320 mcghbfjoASsisNcOMa
c IDEMTIFY STATION COHSIMATIONS
DO 300 Ksl.NCOrtB
c ** caro d **
RSA0(5,30)ITP,(ISTAC(K,l)fl*llTPl W9ITE (6,290)
K,ITP,CISTAC(K,U),l.*lITP}
2<1Q FORMAT t/5H C0MB,I25H STA,1518}
NSTACfX*lPA33)sITP g ** CASO E **
REA0(5,60) TEWPJ(C3TACCJL,IP
A
SS)U
a
lITPi
107 & 1077 1079
1079
1080 1081 1082
1083
1084 1035
1086
1037
1088
1089
1090 1011
1093
109a
1095
1096
1097
1098
1099
1100 1101 1102
1103
1104
1105
1106
1107
1108 1109 U10 ! 11! 1112 1113 111 11-15 1116 1117 U18
1119
1120 1121 1122 1123
1125
1126 1127 1129
1129
1130
1131
1132
1133
1134 1133
1136
1137
1138 1139000
nal
EKHI8IY
na !M^r r^.3lO) CC3TACCK>L.IPAS3) #L=i,ITs>)
3 3 0 Fn8MAT C75(
t
5H^ATXDSX iapa.3) 11 0<1000
"5?C TFCNTNDM.L-,0) GO TO 320 1145
MTN0HIPASS5sHTMDW
00 34C LX = 3 ,ntnom 1H6 C *# CARO r ** 1147
aEA0{5,3Cl ISTKCL(5,ITMp,fi3
TTax>L) L
3,
|ITH
p) U8
PITE ff*. 3305 i-X,lSTN(LX)
f
(l8TTCL^
L
),t
3
lITP) U9
330 FORMAT (/13H TANDEM GR Ul P , 13 , 6
X
, 1 fl
H
OC* S3 TRE Art
STA,l5,6X 1150000
1 SSHUPSTfiF-n 3TA(3JflO5) 11S1000
^C *SMXCLX) = IrP 1152
35o IFttPASS,E"!.l)NVB3sO U53
on 3S0 KsiJ.'jTy X , K$T A 1154 NSUM(K,TPAS33=Q
ISTA(K) = 1000-K H56
C INJTIATE -1, NG RECORD FCR ALL FLQWS 1157
TO 360 Ha 1,KM 1158
3*0 3(M,K)s-l. 1159
DO 370 Is1>12 1160
NLCRfl.Kjso U61
D(J(I,K)0. 1162
rjMIN(I,K)3T U63
370 CONTINUE 1164 .
i0 CPKTIVUe i 165
TFfNCSTY.LE.O) SO TO 20 1166
WRITEC6.390)1167 3<JC FORMAT C/30VSHgTATIDNS/17H CONSISTENCY
TEST#5X,23MINDEPENDENT OE 1168
1PE*0ENT5 1169
DO 00 l si> NCSTV 1170 C ** CARD O ** 1171
SEAO C5,30) ISrxCL),ISTV(L) U72
;
i
n
0 ^RITEfb.alO) L T STX (l,) i IST y CL) 1173
10 FoHATCl3X,I3ax,I5,ax,I5) 1174
i?c IFCIANAL.LS.9)G0 TG 1570 1175 cc
* * * * * EAO ANO PR0CES3 1 STATION-YEAR CF DAT* *********
1176 C ** CARO H ** 1177
4HC EADCS.50) ISTAM,IYP,fGKI),I = l,t2) 1178 C
** CARD I ** 1179
C SLAMK CARO INDICATES END CF FLOW OATA 1180
IFCI3TAW.LT,1)50 TO 5^0 11SI
IFCNSTA.LT,5)S0 TC 50 1132
C SUSSCRIPT TO STATION 1183
00 440 KsfcSTSJfNSTA 1184
IFCI3TAN.E'3,I3TA(K))G0 TQ 460 1185
4 4-0 CONTINUE 1186
a30 NS7ASNSTA+I 1187
IFCNSTA.ST.^STA) GO TO 160 1187-2*
KsNSTi 1188
ISTACK)=I3TAM t189
C ASSION SUBSCRIPT TO YEAR 1190
HhZ J=IYR-IYK4 1-191
IFfNyRS.LT. J.AN0
#
IPA53.?S..l) VYR3aj U
<5
2
IFCJ.GT.0.AND.J.LE.NY&3) 00 TO 960 1193
WRITE C6,70JIYR 1194
470 FORMAT /1SH Uh'ACCEPTASLE YEAR,15) 1195000
GO TO ISO U96
C STORE fLQtS 1N 3TAT!ON ANO MONTH ARRAy 11^7
aec nsj*ia-U 1198
Dn 90 1=1,12 s199
HS.M + I 1200
iFC(5MCi),LE.Ci)) go rn 490 1201
IFC!3H(l).t.T..TMIN(I,K-)) C < Jh (I , K ) =C * CI) 1202
NlOC.CI,X)='LlGCI,K) + l 1203
DfJCI,K)snnCI,K)+G(I) 1204
S{H,K)aOMCI) 1205
n9C CONTINUE l
206

3n TO 430- 1207
50Q N3TAAsw3TA>l 1208
IF CNVR3.GT,/<YR,03,NSTA + NC0MB,GT,KSTA) GO TO 160
12
cg
IFfNSTA.LE.*
1
) RO TO 160 1210
.NSTNPf IPAS5)=MSTA 1211
>v<5TA X
S
N9 T A *
kJ
3T A 1212
-3
EYHI9IT 6
IFCNCOMB.LE.OGO ra SAO

1213
c IOEmTIFY 3TA 3U3SCRIPT3 FOR 3TA3 IN
CQHBINATI0N3
1214
on 530 KXSlfMCGNg

1215
ITPsNSTACtKX,IPA33)

I.X0

1217
DO 520 L*1ITI*

1218
ITEMP3I3TAC(KX,L)

1219
DO 510 Ksl.NsTA

1220
IFtI3TA(K).HE.ITEMP)G0 Ta 510

1221
IX=LX+1

1222
K3TAC(KX,LX#lPA3S)aK

GO TO S20

1224
510 CONTINUE

1225
52C CflNTlNUE

1226
C REDUCE STATIONS TO THOSE IOENTIFIASLE

1227
NSTACCKX,IPA33)S|.X

53C CONTINUE

1229
C IDEHTIFY 3TATICKS IN TAMOEM

1230
5C IPfNTNOM.LE.OJ GO TO 600

1231
PO 590 LX1*NTN0M

1232
Dn 550 Ks1,NgTA

1233
IFCISTAOO.Eu.ISTNax GO TO 360

1234
5SG CnNTINUE

1235
5*C ISTN(LX)SK

1236
N.SUHtK,IPA3S)sN3MXCUX)

ITMP3NSMXI.X)

1233
OD 580 LslIT
m
P

1239
DO 570 KX=1N3TA

1240
IFCI3TAKX).E0.I3TTCLX,U:) GO TO
580

1241
SC CONTINUE,

1242
5*C ISTfK,UlPA93)=<X

5?C CONTINUE

1244
C IDENTIFY PAIR3 CF 3TATI0N3 FOR CONSISTEHCY TE3TS 1245
60C IFCNC3TY.LE.03 GQ TO 62C

1246
00 640 isi.NCSTY

124?
On 630 Ksl,NsTA

1244
IFCISTAfKJ.a.ISTXCL)) GC TO 610

12*9
IF(I3TACK).E!3.I3TYCL)) GO TO 620

1250
GO TO 630

1251
610 13 T X(L 3
S
X

1252
GO TO 630

1253
62C I3TYCL)*K

1254
630 CDNTINUE

1255
6<*C CONTINUE

1256
65C ITMP3NSTA+HC08

. 1257
CD ****** HAX ANO HIN RECQRDEO
VOLUMES
******* ***** * *
1253
C IMITTATE 3UM3

1259
DO 790 KSNSTXX,ITP

1260
AVG0(K)30.

1261
N(330

1262
Dn 660 1=1,15

1263
660 SHOCI,X)a-T

1264
- On 670 Tsi6,30

1265
67C SHQfl
;
x)3T

1266
TMPsO.

1267
TMPA30.

1266
Msl

1269
M30

1270
DO 780 j3l,HYSS

1271
DO 770 lsi,12

1272
MSM + l

1273
NSN + 1 ,

1274
IFCK.LE.NSTAJGC TO 700

1275
C COMPUTE CQM3INED FLOWS

1276
KX3K-NSTA

1277
ITP3NSTAC(KX,IPA83)

Of^fKjsO.

1279
DO 690 Lsl.lTP

1280
ITEMPSK3TAC(KX,U,IPA3S)

c COMnlNED FLOW HISSINS

1282
IF (0 (M, ITEMP) .ES.-
1..0R.0f'
,
,K),E(3..1,)
5 TO 680

1283
C(H,K)sOM,K}f(;(M,ITE^P)*CST*CCKX,l,IPA38)
EXHI3IT 6 *
6*C t.9 O 7QC
710
72C
73C
7"C
750
760
770
7*C
7*30
aoc
aio
820
83C
ec
850
a>o S7C CE *
S?0
a<5o
90C
910
92c
GO TO 690 OM.K)ai,
CONTINUE
IFCn(M,K) .NE.-l.) GO TQ 710
STAIJT NEV ACCUHULATlONS WHEN FLO ISSlNG
n=0
TMPSO,
THPAsO. in TO 770 TShps0CM,K)
1-M0NTH FL0W8 ;f(3M0(I,K) .LT.TE^PJS^OdfKJaTEHP IF
(SMQ(I+15*K) ,GT.TEMPES (1 + 15,K 5aTEMP IF (SM0(13.K)
.LT.TEMP)SG(13,'K)sTEMP IF(SMQC28.K).GT.TEHP)8M(5{25
f
K]3TMP
6-MoMTH FUOKS TmpsTMP+TE^P TmPAsTmPA+TEmP IFCm-6)760,730,720
TMP = THP0 CH"6,K)
IP CTMP.LT,SnC29,K))3K!H29,K)STMP Ir (TMP.GT.3'1:(1,K)
)S!':H1<I,K)3tMP
54-MfJNTH FLOWS
IF(N-5A5760#750,70
THPA8TMPA"QM-54,K)
IF (THPA.LT.SMOC30,K) 3 3.GC30,K3aTMPA
IF{TMPA.GT.SM<3U5*K))SM(!C15,K)STHPA AVEPAGE FLOW
AVGOCKJSAVGGCXJ^TEMP NDSK3+1 CONTINUE CONTINUE TEWBaNO
AV50CK)3AVGOfKJ/TEMP
CONTINUE
WBlTEC.aOO)
Pf!RVdT/3H HAXIMUff VCLliHES F RECORDED FLQWS) IPITEC6#810)
C
M
0 Cl) ,Iaj
r
12)
Fhsmat C5H 3TA,i2I7,33H 1-MO lTXPaN3T4+>C0MB Dn 30
KaMgTyx,ITMP ITEMpsAVGrKK) + .5 DO 82O 1*1,13 inCT)asM0ClK)+.5
CTTEC6#8<I0)I5TACK), CIQCI),1*1*15),ITEWP
Fpp*ATClX,I4,12I7,2I8,l9,I8)
WPITE(6,8S0)
FHRMATC/16H MINIMUM VOLITES)
WITEC6,81C)CMQCI),1=1,12)
Dn 87 0 KsnsTx*,IthP Dn 860 Tal,15 Ii3CI)aSGCI + l5,K} + .5
wPITEC&,aao)I3TA(KJ,fia (I),la!,15)
* * * * * COMPUTE FREQUENCY STATISTICS vmiTE C68^0)
FnKHAT C/21H FREOUEfJCV STATISTICS) iFJITEC6,fl90) CMO Cl) , 1
= 1,525 FOfiHAT C/14M STA ITEM,17,1118)
MISPJNG FLOW PRECEDING FIRST KECORD MQNTH rjn 'ioo KaWSTX^,
N3TA Ufl,K)=T IPCHNafl ITFHP a NSTA Dn 1 ISO K=l,IT6HP
IF fITMp,GTNSTA) GO TC 1180 IFfK.LE.NST*) GO TO 942
on 92o 1=1,la
TEMPaVLOGClX)
Of: CI, K)
s
0<5 Clr *)* .01/TEKP
IFCOOCI,K).LT..D OOCI,K)a,l
IPCnIN(lX).LT.O.) OC Cl,K)aoQCIK)-OMIK(I,X)
CONTINUE
6-MO
54HQ AV MO)
**************
1285
1286 1237 1203
1289
1290
1291
1292
1293
1294 12951296
1297
1298
1299
1300
1301
1302
1303 130 4
1305
1306
1307
1308 -
1309
1310
1311
1312
1313
1314
1315
1316
1317
1318
1319
1320
1321
1322 1323000
1324
1325
1326
1327
1328
1329
1330
1331
1332
1333
1334
1335
1336
1337
1338
1339
1340
1341 1342000
1343
1344
1345
1346 13a&100 1347000 1347100 137-2
1348
1349
1350
1351
1352
1353
EXHIBIT 6
o o o
Nso 1354
910 nn J4fl Jal, 12 1355
Avl,K)>0, 13 5 &
Sncr.KJso. 1337
SXw(I,K)sO. 1353
TMS> = N 1359
TKr:?? fl):CO3 CIf<)+C3:irN I,K5 J/C16.THP) 1360
<?a<3 Cn^flNuE 1361
942 Msl 1362
on 970 Jisl,ya3 1363
on 960 Jal,12 1364
<=*1 1365
TF(0M,K).EO.-1.3 60 TO 950 1366
C 3F.PLCE FLOW AHRAY WITH LOS ARSAY 1367
TEMPa*LQG(U(H,K)+noI
#
K)3/2,3025851 1363
Q(*,K 3 sTEHP 1369
IF(K.LE.S'3TX) GO 70 960 13&9-2
c SUM, 3RUARE3, ASO CUBE3 1370
Av(T,K)SAV(J,K3*TErf|
137l

80 t l,X)ssnI,0*TErtP*TE>*P 1372
SKEX{l,K3=3KeW(I,K)*TEHP*TEMP*TEMP 1373
SO TO 960 1374
C HI33ING FLOWS EQUATEO TO T 1375
95c 3fM,K3aT 1376
ICHNsi 1j77
96C CnfcTIMUE 1373
97Q CONTINUE 1379
IFCK.LE.N3TX) GO TO 1180 1379-2
INOCUO 1330
on 1000 131 * 12 1391
TEPsNLQsClfK) 1332
IF(THP.LT.3,)G0 TO 1120 1333
TMPSAVCT.K) 1334
Av C T,X)sTHp/TEf<P 1332
IF(30(I,K) ,LE.Q)GQ TO 930 1396
TMPAsgo CI <3 1337
SOr,K)S(SOCt !<)-AVI,K)*T>*P)/T*P-l.) 13*8
IFCSDCI.K).LE,0.3 GO TO 9?0 1383-2*
50CI,K)=S!)I,!<)**.5 139
IF(.SO(I,K) .LT.,0005) GO TO 990 1390
SxrwI,K)s(TFMP*TSlP*SKEW(I#X)-
3.*TEHP*rP*TMPA+2,*THP*TPP*THP) 1391
1/ TEMP!*(TEMP-1 ,)(TEHF3,j*3DI,i<)**3) 1392
I
r
CSXEwCl,K3.LT.=.,!),O.SXEWI,K).GT.,1) INOCSJ 1393
IFSXE(I,K) .GT.3.3 SKEWI,K)33,
IFJ3KW(I0 .LT.-1.) 3KSV CIx3s-3,
GO TO 1000 1393
9*0 3nCI,KJso. 5395
99C S<EM(I,K)sO. 1396
onc cnKTiNue 1397
NSN+1 1393
IF(N,GT.13G0 TO 1060 1399
VsrTEC, 1010) IST4CK), (Av (!,!<) .1 = 1,12) 1400
101C FOSMAT /ly#T'3,8H f*EAN. 12F8.3) 14C1000
' NITEC6,1020)00(1,X),lsl,12) 1402
1020 FnKHAT (7*.7;I?T0 nV,12F*.33 1403000
WSITEC&,1030) (SKEh(!,X),1=1,12} 1404
1030 F'JPMAT C 10l, 4HSKH, I2F3.33 1405000
PlTEC, 1040) CDnI
#
K) ,1=1,123 1<I0&
lOflC F'ipMAT SX,6HINC!>T,F7 ,2, 11F8.2) 1407000
'*ITF&, 10 50) (MCG(I,K3 ,1=1,!2) 1408
10SC FOHHAT 9*,5HYAH3,12I83 1309000
I06C IFCN.SE.14) ti O TO 1180 1410
IFCINOC.LE.O) GO T5 11O 1411
THE FOLLOWING RCUTU'E WILL ADJljST THE INCKEHENT TC 1412
?Y TO OdTAISi ZESC 3KEW 1413
CHANGE THE FCLLnwiNG STAT TO I3*Z=i TO ACTIVATE 1414
SX730 1415
IF(TSKZ.Lc.O) GO TO 1180 1<H&
ITP3-U 1417
00 1110 I
3
112 1418
MsITP + I 1 ai9
on loeo jsi,NYn3 1420
EKHISTT 6
i 421
IF (f](M,K) .EU.T) GO TO 1070 22
T p P a n ( M K ) H23
-00(I*K) 1424
so rn 1080 1425
07C GfK,K)at. 1426
100 CnMiNue 1427
TF*iaSKwfl#K> 1428
IF(TEMP.r,T.C-.l>.AN0.TEHP,LT.,13 GO TO H10 1429
IF(TEMp) lO90Hl0,U00 1430
109C nn(T
t
Kj3Dfl(I
f
K)*2, 1431
(30 TO UlO 1432
110C 00(T,KjsoO(I,K)*xINCH(I) 1433
1110 CONTINUE 1434
Gn th 9301435 C ****** OEIETE gTATICNS ITM UESS THAN S YEARS
OF DATA* ***** 1436
1120 JPJTEC6.U30HSTACK) 1437
11.3G FnSMAT (/4H 3TA,I6,2fl.H DELETED IN3UFFICIENT QATA)
1438000
13T AsNjTA-l 1439
NSTAASMSTA*! 1440
NSTAX = ;mA + NSTA 1441
IFCK.GT.N3TA)GC TH 1180 1442
C PEDiJCE SUBSCRIPTS OF SU0SEQUENT 3T*TT0N3 1443 '
nn 1170 KX=K,N3TA 1444
I3TA(Kx3=ISTA(KX+13 1445
H=1 1446
Dn 1150 J=1*NYR3 1447
On 1140 1=1.12 1448
MsH+1 1449
11C <3fM,KX3*g(>1,KX+l) 1450
1 i SC CONTINUE 1451
no 1160 1=1#12 452
^XWCI.KxJsnMlNClfKX+l) 1453
fil...OOCT,K^3skiLnGIKX + l) 1454
116C Oo(T,KX)sDQ(lfKXfl} 1455
117C COKTINUE 1456
nn m 9lo 1457
i iec CONTINU 1458
!T3NS=0 1459
IF CTfCn^.LE.O) GO TO 1370 1460 CF* ***** A0JU3THENT QF
FREQUENCY 3TATI3TICS TO lONS TERH * * * * 1461
DO 1 190 1 = 1112 1462
On 1190 K = 1 NSTA 1463
DO 1190 U-lt NST AX 1464
NC*B{T,K
f
L)=n 1465
SUMA (!,K,U=0, 1466
Sljf'
l
*CI,K,L)S0. 1467
8rjACI,K#U=0. 1468
SQHfT,K,U)=0. 1469
XPAf (T, K ,L3
S
0. 1
47(
5
(*{t ,K,1)S.4. 1471
1190 CONTINUE 1472
DO 1220 Ks1,NSTA 1473
XX=K*1 1474
=1 1475
DO 12?0 jal,MYfi8 1476
DO 1250 1=1,13 1477
risx + l 1478
TFMO=R(,K) 1479
IFfTEMp.E9.T3 60 TO 210 1480
Dn 1200 L
3
KX,MSTAX 1431
LX = L-N5T,\ 1482
IFCIX.LT.15 THP=,j(M,L) 1 33
IF(LX.f?T.O) TMP = n(H-l,L!<3 1484
IFCTMP.EO.T) 50 TO 12C0 1485
NCAn(I,K,L)=NCAH(I,K,L)+i 1^86
3i!V*CI,K,L3=5UHA(i
f
K
f
L3 + TEMp 1487
SU?* CIK,L3 =nUH9(I,K,L)4THP 1488
35A fl.K.LJsSQACI,K,L) + TEHP*TEMP l
ftS9

30H fl
t
K#L)aS'3CI,K
f
L3 + TMP*THP 1**0
XPA8fX,K,L3 = XPA0CI,i<,L3 + TEMP*TnP I
a91

IFCL.5T.N.STA3 50 TO 1200 l
fl<,
2
7-
EXHIBIT 6
NCACI.L,<)=*CA0CI,K,U 1493
SUMI,L,*)=3UHBCI,,L) }494
SIJHRCI,L
4
K)=3UMACI,Kl) 1<|<JS
3nAfI,L<K5sS7(I,K,UJ jq, 3I3B fI,L.K)=SnA(I,K,L)
XPABI,1,K)SXPA3I,X,L) 1490
1200 CONTINUE 1499
121C CHNTINUE 1500
122Q CnsTINIje J501
IMPC*0 1502
DO 1260 K
a
i N3TA 1S03
KXaK+1 I50)
00 1260 I* i # i 2 1505
RA(I,K,K)3i.
1506

00 1230 L
S
KX,N3TAX 1507
IP(NCA8(I*K*L).LE.2) GO TO 1230 1508
TEMPBNCA8(I#K1) 1509
TMPs3i3A(I,K,L) 1510
Tpsgija If K, 1.) ISti
TMPAssgtfA 11KL3 1512
TMPP3TMP-TMPA**2/TEMP}/TE! 1313
IPCTMPP.LT.O.) TMPPaO, 1514
3nAfI,K.L)3THP?**,5 1515
TPaaSUHHfI,K#LJ 1516
THPP3TP-THPg**2/TEMP)/TEMP 1517
IPfTMPP.LT.O.) TMPP30. 1513
SOHI I,K,L)=TfPP**.5 1519
TMpaTMP-.TiPA**2/TMP)*CTP-TMPB**2/ThP) 1520
IFCTMP.LE.O.) GO TD 1230 1521
THPAa5{pA3l#Kl.3-THPA*T'P8/TEMP 1522
TMP9*l. 1523
IPCTMPA.LT,0.) TMP33-TMP8 1324
TMPA3THPA*TMPA/TMP 1525
TMPA3 1.,1,-TMPA)*C7EMP1.)/CTEMP-2,) 1526
IFTMPA.LT.0.)Tf<PA30. 1527
3AI,K,L)STNPB*THPA**.5 1520
ITPat
LA31.
LX3L-N3TA
IF CL.LE.M3TA) GO TO 1233 ITP3-1
IFCUP.LT.l) ITPal2 LA^LX
1215 IF(SO 11K).LT..0001.0R.SDCITP,LA).i.T.,0001) SO TO 1330
Gn TO 1240 1529
23C ACI,K
#
L)so, 1530
1240 IF (L.GT.NISTA) GH TO 1250 1531
3aAfJ,LK)=3'}BCI,K,L) 1532
9nHt,L*K)sS0A(I,!<,L} 1533
fJACI,L,K)snfI
(
K,t) 1534
1250 CHfcTINUE 1535
1260 CHNTINijE 1 536
- Dn 1280 K=1#n3TA 153 7
on 1230 131,12 1533
TfHPsNLOG(I K 3 1539
Ltsn 1540
Un 1S7Q L31,N3TA 1541
IFCL.EO.X.fR.aA I,K,LKlE.-a.) GO TO 1270 1542
IF f MLOG fI#L3.LE.NLQGI,K)) GO TU 1270 1543
TMPA=fcCARClK.L) 1544
THP^sklOGIl3 J
5<
<5
TP=TMP*/l,-CTMPB-TMPA)RACI,K,L)**2/TMPS) 1546
IFCTP.LE.TEHP) GO TO 1270 1547
LXL 154^
7EMpsTP 1549
TMPPSTHPA 1530
127S CnfiTINUE 1551
IFCLX.LE.O) r,0 TO 1280 1592 IFC9CJAI,K,LX1
.LE,,0001.Ol.33SCIKiLX) ,L.,0001) GO TO i20
IM0C=1 1533
TMP = SgAI,K,LX)/S(3BCI,K,LX) 1554
T*PA = SUA{:,KLX)/TM?P *555
EKHlSIT 6
TPB=3UMBnK*LX)/TMP* 1556
Av(T,KJSTMpA+(AV(I,L)tJ-TMPP)*BA(I,K,LX)*TMP 1557
3CCr.K)3S!A(i,K,l.X)MSQI,m-308CIfK,U))*HACI#K,LX)**2*TMP1558
12*0 CHKtinuE 1559
C ADJUST STANDARD 0EVTAT1QN3 FOR CONSISTENCY 1560
IP(NCSTY.LE.O) GO TO 1330 1561
C TSAuSFES FOtW 1011 1562
12<?C OH 1330 lX = l,NCSTY 1563
K=ISTXLX) 1564
L=ISTY(Lx3 1565
00 1320 131,12 1566
TFf'P=(AVCI,K)-AVn,L))/3. 1567
IF(AV(I,K3.GT.AV(I,l}) GC TO 1300 1568
TE^PSTEHP+SO(I,K) 1569
IPCSOCI.U.LT.TEMP) GC TO 1310 1570
TFKP=S0(IK*2.-TEMP 1571
IFC30tI#L> TEMP 1320,1320,1310 1572
1300 TE^PsTEHP + aOdfK) 1573
IF(S0(I,L3.GT.TEflP) SC TO 1310 1574
TPyn
=
go(j,K)*2. -. TEMP 1575
IP(Sn(I,L).GE.TEHP) GC TO 1320 1576
131C Sr>CT,L)sTMP 1577
1320 CiSTINUe 1578
133C Cn^TINuE 1579
IFCITRNS.GT.O) GC! TO 2820 150
13C IF{IN0C.LF-'.0.AN0.NC3TY,IE.03 GO TO 1370 1581
w<UTR (6,1350) *582
1350 FPPMAT(/39H FRESENCY STATISTIC3 iFTER ADJU3THENT3 )1583
VJ?ITEC6.890) (*0(1),1=1,12) 158
dO 1360 Ksl,Ki3TA 1585
WOITE(6.1010)ISTAK),(AV(I,K),isl,12) 1586
hP! TE(5.120)(SO(I,K),Xsl,12) 1587
WPITI(6, }030) (5KE(I,X),lsi,i2) 1568
WSITE(6.100)(00(1,K),ls1,12j 1589
1360 CONTINUE1590 CG ***** * TRAnSFOPM TU STANDAeDIZED VARIATE8
**'********* 1591
13
7
C Dn 120 Ks1,N3TA 1592
Msl 1593
on 1 ai O J=1.NYR3 159a
no S00 1=1,12 1595
rtsu+l 1596
3SCH,K)=8LANK 1597
IP(OCM.K),3,T}GD TO 14C0 1599
IFC80(I,K}.0.0.)G0 TO 1390 1600
0(H,K3=(PCM,K)-AV(I,K))/SD(I,K) 1601
c PEAPSCN TYPE III TRANSFORM 1602
IF(8KEW(IK),E5.0,350 TO 100 1603
TEHP=.5*sKEW(I,K)*0(H,K3+l. 160
TVPSI, 1605
!F(TEMP.GE.O.)GO TO 13S0 1606
TFKP=-TEMP 1607
THf' = -l. 1608
13?O Q(H,K)=6.*(TMP*TEMP**(l/3.)-l.)/SKEW (I,K)+3KEW(I,K)/6,
1609
5n Tn 100 1610
139C 3(t
J
,K)=0. 1611
lnc CONTINUE l
fe12

lfilC CONTINUE 1613
msc CnN T tNUE161 c ****** COMPUTE SUMS OF SMJABE3 ANO CRQ3S
PRODUCTS ******* 1615
Or 1 15O K = 1,S!3TA 1616
Dn lao 1=1,12 1617 Dn talo L
3
1 , N S T A X
KSCT.K.L) s(-4.) 1619
SUM (I,K,13=0, 1620
3H!^CI,K,L)=0. S >2i
3nA (I,K,L)0. 1622
Sr32CI,K,L)*0.
1623

XPAE* CI,K.L3=0. l
fe
2
a

ia3o NCA^ (I ,,13=0 i>25
i?A(I,X,K)si. 1626
1 fl/lO CONTINUE 1627
145C CONTINUE 1628
9
EYHTBIT b
!1(1. 1540 K5}*N34 1629
KX = !<*1 1630
1631
no !o j=iHys3 1633
Dn Ui70 1=1.12 1633
K**+i . 163a
TFMPsqM,X) 1635
IP CTEIMH0T)(C TO 1470 1636
On 1460 L=X'.<,N3TVJ< 1637
C SU8SCHIPT3 EXCEgOINS K3T* ELATE TO PRECEQING HNTH 1633
LX3L-NSTA 1639
IFLX.LT.l) TMP=0M,L) 1640
IFax.GT.O) TMP=Q(M-1,LX) 1641
IFCTMP.Ei3.73GO TO 1460 i62
C CniJsT Ano USE C-NUV 9EcOHt)EO PAjft3 1643
"fCAfl CI, t.) 3MCA8 ( t, :<#L 3 1 164 4
SIIKA Cl ,K. l)satj4 I,K,I.) TSHP 1645
3Ufrflf!,, L)sflUffal,K,l.)+T>
l
P 164 6
3HA !,K,L)=.^^A T,K,U)+TEf'P*TEMP 1647
3 09 I, i<, L) ~3QS CIK,L)+T*P*T
M
P 1638
XPAflI,!<
i
L)sxPAqI,K
#
L)+TE
,
P*TMP 1649
IFCL.RT.N3TA) GO TO HiC 1650
NCABI,L,K)SNCA*3I.L) 1651
3KACI,L.K)s.'}(JMBI,K
f
L) 1652
SUHBt,L,K)3<?UMAT,K,L) 1653
3f5A X,L,K)a31 )U I,K,L) 1654
503 I,L,K)=saA I,K,L) 1655
XPAni.L,X)sxPA3(l
#
K,L) 1656
14*0 CONTINUE 1657
1/I7C CONTINUE 1658
laflO CONTINUE1659 C ****** COMPUTE CORRELATION C0EFFICIE'ST3
************ 1660
on 1530 1=1,12 1*61
Op 1520 L
=
KX,NSTAX 162
LX*L-N3TA 1663
C ELIMINATE PAISS Vi If H LE3S THAN 3 y3 UATA 1664
IPMCA8ClK,L).LE.2) GQ Td 1510 1665
TFMPsNCABClK,L) 1066
TMP=SQAfT,K,L)-SUMAI,!<,1) ASUMACI,K,L)/rENP)*C3Qa(I,K,L)-SUMB
16*7
1 CI,<,L)*3UMSCI,.<,L)/TeMP) 1663
C ELIHINATE PAIJS h ITH ZEfiO VARIANCE PRQOCT 1669
IFCTHP.LE.O.) GO TQ 1500 1670
TMPBsl, 1671
TMPA=XPABfl,K,L)-StJHAI,K,L)*3UM8CI,K,L)/TEMp 1672
C 9ETAIN ALEBSAIC SIGN 1673
IFCT^PA.lT.O.)TMPH3-TMPH '674
TMP4=THPA*T
M
PA/THP 1675
(T,K,L)*TMP9*TmPA**,5 1676
ITPSJ
l>77

L*=L 1673
IFCt LE.NSTA) GH TO 1490 1679
ITPsi-1 1630
IF ClTP.LT.l3 ITP=12 1631
" LA = !..X U2
190 JP CSOClK).LT..^001.0R.30 CITP,LA3.LT..0Q01) HA(I,K,L)*0,
1683
on Tn 1510 1684
tsoc ACT,K,L)=0. 1635
51C IPCL.CT.NSTA) GO TQ 1220 1S6
*ACT,L,X)=aAT,K,L) 1687
1530 CONTINUE tft3
153c cnwTiwijE lia?
150 CONTINUE 16 90
80 TO 2170 1691
1SSC W9XT6,1560) 1692
156C FOSMAT /l8H DATA OUT CF QROES) 1693
Sfl TO 130 1694 CH ***** * BEAO COfiRELATlCN CCEFFiCjNT3
************** 1695
1570 On 1630 K
S
1N3TA 1&96
IF fK.EO.DSO TO 1600 1697
ITSK-I 1698
Dn 1590 L=1I
t
P 1699
c CUKNENT MONTW CCPPELATION 1700
EXHIBIT 6
10
** C4KD L **
eSAOC5,7o)IT*P,lTEMP,CRA{I,K,L3#1*,12) nvfK,i.)sA(l,K,L)
IF (TBNHL.-O.n JSTA CK)siTKP 1? (ITMP.Nc.l3TACk3)G0 TP 1550
lPt!TEnP,Ne.jSTAa))GG TQ 1550
on iso I3i#i2 158C RA(T,L,K)sRA(I,K
t
L)
15^C CONTINUE C PRECEOINC MOKT* CORRELATION
16QC LXssiSTAA
TP (IGNPL.E0.13 L5<aN3TA + K LASN3TA5
IP fIGNBL.EO.n LALX DO 1610 L
S
L*.LA TTPSL-NSTA
** CARO K OH M **
KA0C5,70)ITHP,ITEMP,(RA(I,K,L).Xol,12)
IP(K.EQ.i)l3TA(K3 = ITr4P IFC.Q.l3ISTA(ITP)slTEvp IF
(IGNffL.EQ.l) RAV(K,X)e9Afl,K,L3 IP(ITHP.NE.I;TA(X))G0 TC 1550
IFCTTEMP.NE.I3TACITP))Q0 TO 1550 1610 CrNTINUE
On 1620 I = ii a 163C (?,K,K)=1.
1630 CONTINUE
C ****** P?AD FREQUENCY STATISTICS **************** On 1640
K=1NST*
C ** CARD N CP O **
!<EAP(5.S0) IIP (AVCI,0,131,12}
IPCITP.NE.ISTACK3JGD TO 1550
C GENERALIZED STATISTICS QN ONE CARD PER 3TATI0N
AV**CK)=AVCi,K)
AVMN(K)=AV(2,K}
Sniv(K)sAV3,K)
I n^sAVf'tiO + .l IMX K)sITMP-MQ{12)
ITMPSiV(5,K)+.l
t<S(!<)stTHP-hO(l2)
IF (IMXK).LT.l) IHXIX3sIY(lt3 + 12 IF CIMiK) .LT.l) IM N ( K
) s J H N ( K 3 + 12 IPCIGHBL.E8.13GO TO 1640
RPAn(S,B0)ITP,CSn(I,K),I=l#12) IP(ITP.NE,ISTA())G0 TO 1550
RPAn(3,90)ITp,C3XEw(I,K),1*1,12) IF(TTP.NE.I3TACK))G0 rn 1550
* CARD P **
** CARD 3 **
** CARO R **
READC5,^0)ITP CDOCIK),Isl,ia)
IF(ITP.NE.ISTACK))Gn TO 1550 1640 CONTINUE
Cl * I * * * * ESTIMATE M13 SIK G CCPHELATION C0FFICINT8
******** 1650 IPCIGNSL.E8.PG0 TO 3020 !F (N3TA.LE.1)G0 TO 2310
Dn 1720 I
a
112 IP=I1
IP (TP.LT.13IP
=
12 Dn 1710 K=1N3TA ITpaK+l
On 1700 L=ITPN3TAX C L ANO X CURREUTirv PC3SIBLY HlSSlNG
IFCRA(I,K#L).GF..C-1.3) GB TO 1700 SKAYSt,
R H X N5 1 0
c * LX SEAHCHES ALL SELITEO caRRELATrONS XCEPT
F0LLCiIN5 MTH
Dn 16*30 LXsl * NSTAt IP (LX.EO.X)GO TO 1690 IF(L.E0.LX3Sn TO
1690 TEMPSPA(I,XLX)
IF(L,LE.NST*)GC TO 1660
1701
1702
1703
1704
1705
1706
1707
1708
1709
1710
1711
1712
1713 171 a
1715
1716
1717
1718
1719
1720
1721
1722 1723,
1724
1725
1726
1727
1728
1729
1730
1731
1732
1733
1734
1735
1736
1737
1738 * 1738-2*
1739 *
1740
1741 1732
1743
1744
1745
1746
1747
1748
1749
1750
1751
1752
1753
1754
1755
1756
1757
1758
1759
1760
1761
1762
1763
1764
1765
1766
1767
1768
1769
1770
1771
-H
EXHIBIT 6
IFCLX.LE.NSTA)GO TO 167C 1772
c 30TH L and LX KEPPE5gsr PHECE0I*G MONTH 1773
ITM?3(.N8TA I77<|
ITE.MPSLX-NSTA
1773

T^PaHAflP.ITMfilTSMP) 17
7<I

GO TO 1680 1777
C L HEPRE36NT3 CURWFNT MONTH 1778
1&60 T!<P=R4CI,ULX) 177$
GO TO 1680 1780
C LX ANO NOT L SEPSpfjfNTS CURRENT MQNTH 1701
1.70 TMPs9Al,LX,L) 1732
16C IF CTWP+TEHP.LT.-2.0) GO Tn 1690 1783
TMPA=(l.-TE,'iP*TEMP)*a,.THPT>iJ}) 1734
XFtTMPA.UT.Q.JTMpAsO, 1785
TMPA=TMPA**,5 1786
TMP5STMP*TMP+THPA 1737
XPCTMP3.LT.HAX)HMAXaTPB 1783
TMP9STMP8*TMPATMPA 1789
IF tTMP9.ST.RitlN)RHINsTMP0 1790
169C CONTINUE 1791
C AVERAGE 3MALLEST MAX ANO LARGE3T MlN CONSISTENT
VALUE 1792
RA CIK,L)S(RMAX+(}MIN)*,; 1793
IF(L.LE.NSTA)PA<I,L#K)An.K,l) 1794
1700 CONTINUE 1795
1710 CONTINUE 1796
72C CONTINUE 1797
50 Tn 2313 1798 CJ ****** TEST FOff TRIAD CSN3I3TENCY
*************** 1799
173C NCAsQ 1600
17*C FAC=1. 1801
NCAsMCA+i aoa
IFCNCA,LT.NSTA*12) 80 TC 1750 1303
HRITC61S40) 1804
50 TO i50 1805
t7SC NC8=0 1306
NC=0 1807
1760 IwCCsQ 1806
Dn 1830 I=li2 1309
iPsr-i 1810
IFCIP.LT.1)IP=12 tan
C Ki L* ANO LX SEARCH all RELATED TSlS GF COKREL
CCEFS 1812
DO 1820 K*liNSTA 1813
IT^P=K+1 1814
On 1810 LSITMP.N8TAX 1815
IFCL.Eo.NSTAXlSa TG 1810 1816
LA5L-N3TA 1817
Sl=AfI,K#L) 1818
lTP=L+l 1819
Dn 1300 LX*IT
p
#N5TAX 1830
ITEMPSLX-N3TA 1821
P?=PACI,KLX) 1822
IFCL.LE.NSTA)R3=RA(I,L,LX) 1823
C . BOTH L AND L* REPS'ESENT PRECEDING MONTH 124
XF(L.ST.N8TA)R3aRA(IP,t.A,ITEMP) 1625
C RAISE LnwEST CCEFFICENT IF INCONSISTENT 1826
ACl=fl.Rl*RD*,5 1827
AC2=C1."R2*R2)**.5 1828
AC:i=(t.-R3*R33*.5 1329
IFCR1.GT.R2) GO TO 1770 1830
IFCR1.GT.R3) GC TH 1780 1831
RHIN=P2*S3-AC?*AC3*FAC 1832
IP C^TM.LT.-13 RMINS-1. 1833
IFC1.GE.RMIM) GO TO 1800 183
I>nC = l 1835 RA CI K,L136
IF CL.LE.N3TA) RACILK)fitlN 1837
GO TO 1800 1833
1770 IFCP2.GT.R3) SO TO 1780 1839
RHINsPi*3ACl*AC3*FAC 1?0
IFCRNIN.lT.!.) PHXN*1, 1841
IF(2.GE.HlN) 00 TO 180C 12
INDCS
1843

EXHIBIT 6
*12
17*0
I 79C
1300 1 3!C 182C 1330
1**0
taso
CK *
1360
C
C
1470
i 8*C 139C
190C
i g i a
1 <520 1930
191C
1 93C 19*0 1970 1980
1 99C
200C
HACT,K,LX339HN
IF (LX.LE.NSTA) RA(I,LXX)=RMIN GH TO 1800
l}MIMs5l#H2-AC t * AC2*FAC
IFCSMlM.LT.-t,) HMJNa.l,
IF{P3.fiE.HlH) GO TO 1300 INDC=1
IF fL.6T.NSTA) GO TO 1790
Si CT,l,LX)=f^lN
IF (LX.LE.N3TA) RACI#LXL)cRMlN fin TO 1*00
A CTP,LA,ITEMP)=RWIN RACIP.ITEPLA)=RMIN
CONTINU
COMINUE
CONTINUE
CONTINUE
MC=NC+i
IF(N'C,LE.N3TA*12) GO TO 1850 WRITECb#l80)
FnfiMAT(32H CORRELATION MTSIX INCONSISTENT)
50 TO ISO
IFCNOC.ErJ.l) GO TO 1760
* * * * TEST FOR OVER-ALU CONSISTENCY ************** ITEHPsfl
CO Tn 1870 ITEMPSI
WHEM ITEMPSJ, CU^PNT MONTH USED FOR ALL INDEPENDENT 8TA3
0THE
S
ISE PREC HTH USED FOR CURRENT AND 3U8SEQUENT STA3 NINDPshSTA
HVA = NINdP+1 Dn ?1*.0 IS1.12 IP5I-1
I
IP,LT
*
C0N
g
TSIJcT
CQKPLETE CORREL MATRIX FOR EACH MONTH Aso STA
DO 2150 K = 1#!STA
L IS ROW NUM8E9, J IS COLU^M NUM8E
00 2020 L=1NSTA
LX=L+NSTA
00 !930 J
S
1 N3T A
jysj+NSTA
IF (L) 1080, 1920, 1960 IF(!-X) lSOO.^lO.l^OO
S fL J> = DULE(RA(IfUrJ))
LTMP(L)=L JT-*P(J)SJ 60 TO 1970
IFCITEMP) 1910,1910,1890 m.J5 = 03L(*A(I,l,JX))
LTf-'0CL)=L
JTMPJ)SJX
30 TO 1970
IFfJ-K) 1930,1900,1950 RfLrJ) = DSLE(R
A
CI#J*LX))
LTMP(L)aj JTKP(J)=LX on TO 1970
(l.J) o OQLECnAtiP,t,/Jn LTMPfDeLX
JTXP(JJBJX Gn rn 1970
IFC
r
TFHP) 19/
t
0, 1900,1930 IF(TTEMP) I9'0, 1920, 1S80 R
(J,L18RL,J)
CnvTINuE
LTI'?(L)=K
flPECIAL 3UBSCRJPT FOR DEPENDENT VARIA3LE IF (L-K)
^n,2010,2000 SfL.NSTAA) = 05LEfH4(IK|L))
J TKP (NSTAA)=L GO TO 2020
IF tlTEMP.GT.O) GO TO 1990
isas
aas
aa
1847
1848 1809
1850
1851
1852
1853
1854
1855
1856
1857 1658
1859
1860 1861 1862
1863
1864
1865
1866 1667 ' 1868
1869
1870
1871
1872
1873 1870
1875
1876
1877 S878 1879 18*0 181 1802
1883
1884
1885
1886 1887000 aaa
1889
1890
1891 1892000
1893
1894
1895 1696 1697000
1898
1899
1900
5 90 J 000
1902
1903 1900
1905
1906
1907 1906
1909
1910
1911 1912000
1913
1914
1915
13
EXHIBIT 6
?C1C Rfl.,N3TAA)
3
03LECRA(I,K,LX)) 1 9i6000
JTM(N.STAA)slX 1 <J i 7
203C CON T ? N(jE t 913
MATRIX CDH3I3TSNT IF COREL OQES NOT EXCEgn 1,0 1919
NaO 1920
HCSO 1931
C ==s=s==s=s }q
22

3030 CHl CROUTCR) 1923
C asssassssa 192/1
IFCr>TMC.L.l.) GO TC 2130 1925
WRXTEf6,2040) M,I,K,OTSHC 1926
300 FnfiMAT f/3bH INCONSISTENT COH&EL MATRIX AOJ U 3 T
O,3jq,p13 ,3) 1937000 C ITHCnAW 1925-1931
FAC=FAC-.2 1932
IFfFAC.GT.-.UGO TO 1750 1933
NCOal 1930
MsN + 1 19 *5
IFiN.57.10) SO TO ISO 196
SUMsfl. i *} * 7
Dn 20*0 L*l#MlNOP !93a
RT 2070 LXslNVAR 5939
IFCL.ET.IX) GCJ TO 2070 t9)
0

TMPP=CL,LX) 1g1
3!)M=SUH+TMPP 1942
207C CONTINUE 19)3
20C COHTIVUZ 19i|fl
T?MP=MINDP*NINBP 905
S!IX = 31M/TEhP 1946
TePsnrMC-l. 1947
IPCTEMP.GT..1) TEMps.l 1943
TMP=I,.TEMP 1949
DO 3120 L
3
11NlNDP 195o
ITP=LH 1951
Dn 2110 !_XSITP,NyAf? 1952
SCL.LX) = DBLE(THPP*THP + SUMKTEMP) 1953000
IFCLX.I.E.NINDP) R{L*L)sfiCL,LX) 195a
UTP3LTHP(>L) 1955
JTPsjTMPCLX) 1956
:F(I.TP.LE.NSTA) GO TO 2100 1957
IFCTTP.Le.N3TA) GO TO 2090 1958
LTP3LTP-N3TA 1959
JTP=JTP-N3TA 1960
AfTP.LTP,jTp)sBCL,LX) 1961
SACIP,JTP,LTP)=RCL,LX) 1962
Sn TO 2110 1963
209C ITMPSLTP 19*4
LTPsjrp 1965
JTP=ITHP 196&
210C 3ACI,LTP.JTP)SR(LLX) 1967
IFCITP.LP.N3TA) KACI,J7,LTP)=RCL,LX) 1968
?11C CntTIKUE . 1969
212C CnNTINUE 1970
3n TO 2030 1971
2i3c iFcnTfMC.Gs.o.) aa to shc 1972
W9ITSC>70) I,K,OTf!C 1973
f)TKC=0, 1974
21
a
C IFCMC8.8T.0) GO TO 1740 1975
3150 CONTINUE 1976
216C CONTINUE 1977
IF CITf-Mp.eo.O) GO TO 1860 1978
IFCIT*lS.EQ.2) 30 TO 31C0 1979
217C HRlTgC&,lO) 1930 C ****** PRINT CDSRELATIQN MATRIX
**************** 1991
00 3360 1=1,12 1932
IFCTTSN3.LE.0) WRITEC6,31*0)*0CI) 19?3
31*0 FHSmat C//39H PA|,' C08SEL*TTnw COFFFICIEnTS FOfl f'RNTH,
13) 1983000
IFCTT8HS.ST.0) HfITECi,?l90) Q f IJ 1995
319C FORHAT C//a0H CONSISTENT CORBElATION MATKIX FOS M0uTH,I3)
1596000
WBITE C6,2200)CISTACK),KS1,N3TA) 19P;
2200 FC1BMT Cy3X,3HSTA,lI7) 19S9000
WPITEC>22iO) 19 i 9
3210 F0HHATC20X,19H WITH CUHSENT MONTH) 1990
EXHIBIT 6
14*
tu ru OJ M <v ru r* OI
'W
v
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ru <u ro tu
ru
u u 1>J J u

u
ru
fu fu <u ru U iu
ru
ON ut tu Ul U * * O A t 3* Ul o

O o O o o o O O o o a o o O
C
tn
a
)UHH Q
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i* .-n
-* 2 o -i
o II i
Oh | iv * H - W Mm -4
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o mT> o w u *
CP
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*
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-* 03
ao r
M m O
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ro -* r x en x r~ m -r r j t/s
re
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OR
O
"JC *-**-* CJ -# *Tt Z
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a:
tu'\*turjf\>\)\j^\)wrviMrurur?uA)
r
ut\j
l
'vru.
,
un;rur!\iiuUi\
i\<u\i\jnj^furunj,'v^f\>fWi'\>.
,
ua)^iV{\j(\J^i
,
unji
,
t\}Wf
uui\>TUfut^itu*--*-
^ ^ ^ -
OOOOOOOOOOOOOCOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOdOOOOOOOOOOOOOO'J3-
OsO>>vDO^vOvO
lij xji a t* e Ck es 6
(bMMUWWUMUMwnjruiviuiViui\)i
,
ui^i\iMH>HMH>iH>H><*H>ooooo3oo
oo4<d<004)i0i0^
*O'ioa)*4GMJ)&ui(VMOfloa'^9
,
biU(uooa*i<ru)jiu}u^Oi0<K*4(]r
<uiAur
A
Oioai>^i<MiirMAi^o4{i)^o
k
uit;Uiru* o o o o , o o
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tit 1 tMA tA til OI 1/ u;
04 ru
o o o
o o o
o o o
33?C RriTEMPNlHDP)-3R(NIHDP, ITEHP)

2063
3380 CriNTIMUE

2064
239C CONTINUE

2065
IFCNINDP.GT.O) SO TO 2<400

2066
NINDP*!

206 7
XfiJsO. .

2068
Pfl.l) * 1.0D0

2069000
LX=K+NSTA

2070
RC1.NVAR) = D8LERACI,K,LX))

2071000
aaoc ITMO=NINOF+I

2072
on 3 10 L = 1.K'IN0P

2073
24 i C RfL.ITEHp)=BCL,NVAH)

2074
C ssssssssss

2073
3420 CAI.L CROUT R)

2076
C ==s=sas==3

2077
I T>'PSNINDP+ 1

2078
TEMPsi,

2079
iHOCsfl

2080
nn 24o l=1>nInDp

2031
TMPSOA03CRCL.ITEMP))

2082
IFCTMP.ST.TEHPJ GO TO 2*30

2033
TFMPsTMP

2084
ITP*L

2035
2430 IFffftU.tTEMP).LE.O..ANO,3 1 ) ,5T.{- 0.5) GC 2440 2086
1,5).ANO.8L),LT. TO
I?(3CL,ITEMP).GE.O..AhO.BCL).ST.-
0.5).ANO.BCLJ.LT.
1.3) SC
T
2440 2087
INDCal

3080
340 CONTINUE

2089
IFCTNOC.ST.O) GO TO 2450

2090
IPCDTRHC.LE.i..AKO.OTRC.GE.O.) GO TQ 2510

2091
C IF MATRIX INCONSISTENT, OMIT VAlABLE ITH LEAST 2092
C CORRELATION

2093
3 450 ITMPSMJNOP-l

2094
IFCITP.fiT.ITMP) GO TO 280

2095
DO 2'470 L = ITP.ITKP

2096
DH 5460 L
As
*lITEHP

2097
P46C SfL,I.A)=RCL + l,L*)

2098
247Q XCL)SXL+1)

2099
34*0 On 2500 L
3
I # ITNP

2100
DO 2490 LA = ITP,NINDP

2101
2-^C RCL.LA)=S(LLA+l)

2102
3500 CONTINUE

2103
NTNnpajTtfP

2104
SO TO 2420

2105
C AQD RANDOM COMPQNENT TO PRESERV VARIANCE

2106
251G TEMP=0.

2107
00 2520 L
3
16

210S
.TEMPSTEHP+SNGEN CIXX)

2109
352C TFHPSTEHP-PNGENCIXX)

3110
C . COMPUTE FLOW

2111
- AL3ri.0TP>lC)**.5

2112
TEMPSTEMP*AL

2113
On 2530 L
a
tNl^DP

2114
2S3C TFf'PsTEMp+3CL)*XCD

2115
!3fM,i<)sTEHP

2116
BM,K)S

2117
TPSQCM.X)

2118
e ARO Ngw VALUE TC SUMS OF SQUARES AND CSQ3S PRODUCT
S
2119
On 3560 L
a
l N3TAX

2120
IFCL.Ea.X) GO TO 2560

2121
C SUBSCRIPTS EKCEEDINS NSTA RELATE TO PRECEOlNG MUMH 3122
L*=I.NSTA

2123
IFCLX.LT.i) T*P=QM,L)

2124
IFCLX.GT.O) TMPSB(M*1,LX)

2125
IF CT^P.EO.T) GO TO 2560

2126
C COUMT ANO USE OMY PECORflED P AIR 3

2127
NCABI,K,L)=MCA8T,K,L)+l

2123
SUMA CI,i(,L)=SUf<ACI,K,L) + TP

2129
3UH8I,K,L)=3UMBCI#K,L)+T!P

2130
SOA I,,L)=SOA CI,K,L)+TF*TP

2131
Sfjp CI,K,L)=SOa CI,K,L)*TNP*thp

2132
XPAf?CI,K,L) = )PABCI,K,L) + TP*TMP

3133
IFCL.ST.N3TA) GO TO 2540 EXHI8IT 6 "16*

2134

J
CAaci,L,K)sMCAB(T,!<,L) 2135

S!lHA(t.L

K)estJtB(I,,L) 2136

SllH!<CI,L.K)=9U('ACt,K,l) 2137

30A CI,L.K)ssf3H (T,K,L) 2139

STP CI.L.KJsaOA (J,K,L) 2139

XPA0(I,L,K)sxPA9(I,K
#
L) 2140
c BECnHPUTE CORSEL*TlMk CQEFFICIENTS TO INCLUOE NEW
DAT*
2141
?540 I
p
(NCASCl.K,L).LE.2) GO TC 2560 2142

TEMPSNCAB I.KL) 2143

TMP=SDACI,K,L)-
SUM4(I,K,L)*S!JMA(l
f
K
#
L)/TEMP)*(SQB(I,K,L)-3UM8
2144

i Cl#K
f
L)*8UMB(I,K,L)/TEHP) 2145
C ELIMINATE PAIfiS ITH ZERO VARIANCE PRQUCT 2146

IF(TMP,LE.O.) 50 TO 2560 2147

TMPilsj . 2148

THF>Aaj(pAB(x,KL)-3UMA(I,KL)*8UM8(I,K#L)/TEMp 2149
c RETAX> ALGE9BATC SIGM 2150

IPfTMPA.LT.O.)THprts-TMPg 2151

TMPASTMPA*TMPA/THP 2152

f?A CT,K,L)sTMpa*THPA**.S 2153

ITPSI 2154

LA=L 2155

IFCL.LE.N8TA) Gn TO 2550 2156

JTP3I J 2157 .

IPCITP.LT.l) !TP=12 2156

LA*LX 2159
255C IPfPCCIK),LT..0001.0.SDtITP,LA).LT.,0001)
RA(I,K,L)=0,
2160

IPCL.GT.N3TA) GO TQ 2560 2161

<ACT,I.,K)SRACI,K,L) 2162
2560 CONTINUE . 2163

ITMP=NYRS12+1 2164

IFCH.RE.ITMP) GO TQ 2530 2165

T*PsG(M,K) 2166

DP ?*7o L = 1J3TA 2167

TMPSQ M+J,L) 2168

IFCTh'P.EG.T) SC TO 2570 2169

LX=<+NSTA 2170

ITPsT+l 21?1

IF XTP ,(5T. 12) ITPSI 2172

frASC7TP,L,LX)shCABCITp,L#LX)+i 2173

3lAClrPL,Lx)=8uHACXTP,LfLX)+TMP 2174

SIMS CITP.L,L'X)=3UMBCITP,L1 X) +TP 2175

S3A CITP,LLX)=SOA CITP,LUX)*TMP*TMP 2176

SnO CITP,L,LX)=Sn3 CITP,L>tX)+TP*TP 2177

XPAB CITP,L,LX)=XPA0(XTP,LLX)+TP*TNP 2178

IFCHCAS(ITP,LLX),LE.2) 50 Tn 2570 2179

TFfP=NCAfiCITp,L,LX) 2180

TMPS(.^
0
A CITP,L,LX)-SU>
,
ACITP,L ,LX)
*SUHAXTP,L,LX)/TEHP)*
2181
i (srj''{rTP#UL.'<J9l
,tf
^ClTP,Ll X) *SUMB ClTPf L>
LX)/TE*P)
2182

IFCTMP.LE.O.) GO To 2570 2133

TMPSt. 2184

THPASXP4SITP,LLX)-
SLH*CXTP,L,LX)*9UMBCITP,LLX)/TEMP
2185,

ir CTMPA.LT.o.) THPRS-TMFB 2186

TMPA
=
7,BA*7MPA/TMP 2137

:AtrTP,LLX) = Tf<PBi>TrtPA*.5 2188

IFCSDCI.K) .LT..OOCUOR.$OCITP,LJ .LT..0001)
RACITP,LLX)=0,
2139
?57
0
CnNTINUE 2190
25?
C
CONTINUE 2191
255C cn>- T i MU 2192
P60C CnKTIMUE 2193
261
C
IF CTAS'AL.LE.O) fio TO 3100 2194
C *
*
t * * * * CONvEST STANDARD DEvlATEg TD FLQWS
*********
* 2195

IFC^AS3.LE.l) GU Tn 2630 2196

7TMPP=MY93*i2+l 2197

Dn ?fe20 ITMP=1,100 2198

IFCL'JTAP.EO.NOTAP) GO TC 2630 2199

SEn;xnTAP) 2200
262C LoT APSL^TAP+i 2201
2630 WPITEC6,10) 2202

WRITE 6,26
fl
u) 2203
2bfl
0
FD^MATC31M RECC^DED AND KECOWSTITUTED FLOWS) 2204
IF(^PASS.GT.I) "f' I TE Ch I 265C ) IPASa 2205
265C FPIMT C5H PASS, 13) 2206
-17-
EXHI8IT 6
?6fcC
ae>7c
26C
36*30
270C
27H
2720
273C
?7C
37SC
3760
2765 CN #
27 y c
27*0
3790
An.Y3S
3
HY3S pn 2M0 K = i<'i3TA
IFCK.GT.N3TX) ^l7E(b,bbO) (MqCII# I!#125 F^SMAT t/U
H
STA
YEH.13IS6XSWTflTAl.i Msl
On ?760 J
a
'JVR3 iTPaO
Dn 3720 Il,ia M = f*+1
TFPaO(M,K)
TMP=3KEWfI,K)
IFfTMP.NE.O.) TE>P3((THF(TF'MP,TKP/6,)/6. + 1 . }*3 -t,)*2./TPP
IF COR f K3 .JF.n GO rn SE^O , . ,
IF(TEnp.GT,3.,A
x
iD.30Cl,KKf-T..3) TfiP
3
2 , fTEMP-2 .) * .3/SD
( X, K 3 IF (TMP.LT.-.0^01 .03.TMP.sT.,0001 ) T^P*(-2.J/TP
IF(SK6w(IK)l 267^,2690,260 I?CTfMP.ST.T tP) TEHPsTKP 'iO TO
2690
TF(TE^P.LT.T'lP) TEm'PsTUP T'
!
P3THP*S0 f I fK J >AVCIK
3(H.K)atO.**THp-f3(I#K)
IF(3(M,K) .LT.O.,ANO.Q>'IK ti *) ,G,0) Q(H#K)
3
0.
M(I)aQRM,K)
ITMP
=
M3HM(K,I^AS3)
IFtrTMp.LG.O) 50 TO 2710
TE*PsO.
nn 2700 l
3
1I
t
*p
L*=TSTCK,L IPAS3)
rFypsTEMp+3f!,L<)
tFC
r
JM,K1 .GT.TEMP) GO TC 2710
QH(t)aADJ
rF{ns(n,K}.NE.E) GO TC 27to
QM(T)3A0Jl
GK,K)STHP
IO{T)=Q(H#K)+.3
ITP = ITP+II3(I3
IYFSIYKA+J
IFCK.LE.NflTK) 5H TO 2760 IFCIPCHG.LE.O) Gn TO 274H * 3 TTE
(7,2730) 1T*CK)#lH(lO(I)I
a
t*l23 FnSMAT(2ia,12I6)
WQTTE(6,375^) rS'fA(K)
P
IY<5, (If3() ,QM(n , Isl,l2) , ITP
Fr"MATlX*I
a
t6>I,AlUI7Al),X10i
CP^TtNUB
IFCHPASS.LE.il 60 TO 27 6S rt!?ITEI0TAP)7^rAK), (CH,K)
,MB1,ITMPP)
\nrspsMfiTAP+l IF(jtSC0*.lOJ SO TO 28 ! O
i * * *fiECf)<P|.!TE HEAN ANP STAnOASO DEVIATION Dn 2770 1*1.12
Av(T,K)=0.
5KFWI,K)B3.
3nCt,H)30,
M=1
OH 3790 jalfMYK3 DO 270 1=1*12
**********
< = M + 1
= ALOS(QfH*
1
<)+O3(I,K))4,a329l5 ts% k\t f T ,^>*TPMP
Tfy.P:
4v(T.K)a*V(I,<)+TEMP 5<(I
,
O
s
3>
{f
-> Ct,K)+TE*P**3
30(T,i)asD(I,K) T
M
P*TEHP cris riNuE on 2soo I=* 1 # 1 a
Tp=AV(I.K)
T>FA = 5Dl*K)
?fif.'3C30tIpi<)-TEMp*TSMP/ANYHg)/(ANYS3
IFCTMP.L7.0.) TMP=0.
AV(T,
I
<)=TEHP/4\YH3
SO (IK3 stMP**,5
TP=3KEI*J
SKFW(I,X)=0,
IP(S0(I/K5.LE..0005 SO TO 2800
1)
2207
220c!
2209
2210000
2211
2212
2213
2214
2215
2216 2217 2213
2219
2220
2222
2223
2224
2225
2226 2227 222*3 2229
2232
2233
2235
2236
2237 2233
2239
2240
2241 222 2243 22 aa
2242 2246 2207
2248
2249
2250 225C
2251
aasa 2253 * 2254
2255
2256
2257 2253
2259
2260 2261 2262
226 3
2264
2265
2266 2267 226 2269 ?270
2271
2272
2273
2274
227 S
2276
2277
EVHI3IT 6
id*
SKW(I,K)s( A.MYRS**2*Txp3,*ANYR9*TEMP*THf
,
A+2
t
*TE;1P**3)?279
1/>-JY33*CANYM31,)*(AKYHS*?,)* SQ(I,K)**3) 279
280C CnKTjMug 2280
asic cnMrwue 22.41
LoTAPsfiQTAP 2282
XTPk^s* 1 2283
IF (IPCON,LE.) r.O Tn 2930 329*1
IF CNC3TY.GT.0) SO TO 12<30 2295
C PRIMT ADJUSTEO FSEIDENCY STATISTICS 22*6
232C MPITE(6.10) 2287
~ T T E (6,2830) 2288
?B?C F 0 S M A T C / 3 O H AOJI'STED FWEGUENC* STATISTICS) 2289
'XflT? (, 890) (OD,I*!,12) 2290
nn 2Sao K=NSTXX,,VSTA 2291
WPITC (6,1010) l3TAfK),fAV(I,K),1=1,12) 2292
WRITE 6,1020) SD (I jK) , I
a
!, 12) 2293
-WITE 6,103n) CSKEWU
1
<)all2) 2294
WBTTE 6,1040) tOt3CriK),Isi,i2) 2295
Sfic CHMIMUE 2296
C PHINT CQNSISTEKT CORSEIATION MATRIX 2297
iTRNgsx 2298
f.n TO 2170 2299
2fl?0 TF (IPCHS.LE.O) GO TO 2370 2300
C PUMcH FRECUENCY STATISTICS 2301
on 2360 K=MST*X,NSTA 2302
WOTTEf7,50)IftTAK),AV(I,K),m,12) 2303
wfiITE780)XsTAK)#(SCI,K),!si,12) 230
WB!TEf7,8f>) I
S
T4 K), CsKEh I,K) ,ial, 12) 2305
PITE(7,90)tsTACK),(OQl,K),1=1,12) 2306
286C CONTINU 2307
C COMPUTE COMBINATION FLOWS 2308
c 2309
2fl7C IF(CP*.Le.O) GQ TO 2910 2310
ITMP312*NVRS*1 . 2311
Dn ?90Q M=2ITkP 2312
DO 29o KXsi , flCOHR 2313
Ksrtx+NSTA 2314 IT? = KSTAC CKX, IPASS)
](H.,K)=0, 2316
On 20flo L=lTTP 2317 ITff'PSKSTAC (r* ,l,IPASS)
28*0 3fM,K)=fJM,!<) +Q(1ITEXP)*C8TACKj<,l.,IPAgS)
2S9C Cm-TINUE 2320
29CC Cn,VTINue
2321

C2322 CO ***** * MAX ANO MIN RECCNSTITUTEO FLOWS *************
2323
291 C faO 232
ITPNS=1 .
2325

IFCMX3CS.LE.0) GO TO 2930 2326
ITf<PsMYRS 2327
2920 IF(TTMP.LE.O) 50 TO 2930 2328
2229
\\r=*!fi?CS 2330
lTypSlTHpMXCS
2331

IF(TTMP.GE.O) GO TO 3730 2332
ITf
<
P=MX
!
?CS + lTMP
3333

NJSTTHP 233
ITMOaO 2335
on Tn 3730 2336
293C IFIGNRL.NE.2)50 TO 302C 2337
: ****** COMPUTE GENESALIZED STATISTICS* ************* 2333
*?ITEC6.1 30) ?
33

Dn 3000 K=>1,NSTA 230
: AVEAGE CORRELATION COEFFICIENT 23
fl
l
DO ?950 L=1*K
23a2

LYSL*KSTA
23
*
3

RAufK.LJaO. !
3
**
Qn ?9flO 1=1,12 ?
3
* T*'P = RAJ,K,L)
IF(L.GE.)TMFrSA(J,K,LXl 29AC PAVfK,L)RAVK,L)+TNP
RAV(K,L)*RAVK,L)/12
238

19 EYHtaiT 6
wsrTSC6.70}IsTA(K)
/
l3TA(l.5,R*VCK,L} 2350
2950 COh-TINyg 2351
C AVERAGE L0S3 FCR WET ANO 0Y 8EASQNS 3
333

Av^X(K)aAV(il#K)*AV(12i<}+AVfl,K) ?
333

tMXCK)*l 2354
AVMNfK)a*VMX{K) 3355
IMN CK)al 2356
THPaAV(12,K3 + AV (1K3+AyC2,K) 33j
IF(AVKX(K) .GP.THPJGO TO 2960 ,3353
AVMX(K)3THP
a3
5q
lMX(K)a2 2360
Gn ro 3<70
3
3
M

296C AvMNCKjaTHP 23
&3

lMK(K)s2 2363
C ANO AVEHAGE SmQARo DEVIATION 23
6a

3970 3nAV(K)ssD(l,K)+gnC2,K) 2365
On 2990 133*12 236b
Sf!AV(K)=sOAV(K)+SOCI>X) 2367
TMPsAVtI-2,K)+AV(I-l,K)+AVCI,K) 2363
tF(AvM
X
CK).r;
#
TMp)SO TG 29P0 3369
AVMXK)THP 2370
IHX(K)*I 2371
2930 IFtAVMNfK).LE.TMP)G0 TO 2990 2372
AVMN (K)stMP 2373
IHN(K)aJ 2370
299Q CONTINUE 2373
AvMXCK)=AVMXCK)/3, 2376
VMN(X)3AVMN(K)/3 2377
5!5AVCK)3S0AVK)/12, - 2378
30CC CONTINUE 2379
W?ITE6.10) 2330
On 3010 K
3
1 * NST A 2331
IrPalMxfK) 23S2
ITKPsjHNK) 2333
301C '*PITE6.t20)lSTACK),AVMX(K}*AVMMCK),30AV(K3,H0CITP)
#MIHIT>*P) 2384 C ****** APPLV 0ENE3ALIZED 3TATI3TIC3*
*************** 2395
302C IPCIGNRL.LE.03S0 TO 3100 2336
00 3030 K=1WSTA 2387
!<X=K + N3TA 23 aa
C INTERMEDIATE MONTHS 2339
MMXMNSIH,V(K3-IMXCK)3 2390
IP(NHXHN.LT.O)NMXWN*.'4MXI'N-H2 2391
NMKMXS6NHXM*( 2392
00 3040 1=1*12 2393
C STANDARD DEVIATION UNIFGRM, 3KEH ZERO 2394
3KEwtI,K)so. 2395
Dotl.KJso. 2396
SnCI,K)s30AV(KJ 3397
50 3030 L=1,M3TA2398 C ZERO CnSRELATICN WITH OTHEF? 3TATIQN3
AND P&ECEOING M0NTH 2399
LX3L+V3TA 2400
RACI,K,Lx)aO. 2401
- IFCL.GE.X3G0 T0 3030 2402 C UNIFKM SERIAR COSPEL
INTERMEDIATE M0nTH8 And INTER-3TA 2403
RACI,K
4
L)=SA
V
CX*L3 2404
ACT,L,K)s(?ACIK|L3 2405
303C CONTINUE 2406
ACI,K,KX)='?AVCK,K) 3407
BACI,K,K)si. 2408
30
a
C CONTINUE 2409
C MEAN ANO SERIAL CORREL WET ANO 0Y 3EA30N9 2410
TMPBf?AvCKK3 I-.15 2411
TEMpsTMP.,3 2412
IF(TMP.GT,.9a)THP3.9a 2413
IFCTEMP.LT.OJTEMPSO, 2414
iTPslMxfK) 241S
AvCJTP,K3
3
AVHXCK3-,l 2416
tfAtITP,K,KX)cTENP 2417
ITslMxCK)-l 2413
IFCITP.LT.DITP312 2419
AV(TTP,K)3AVMXCKJ+,2 2420
SACTTPK.KX3=TEHP 2421
EXHISIT 6
-20-
ITP=IHXflO-2 IFCTTP.Lf.liITP
s
ITP*i2 AV(TTP,K)aAVM*(K)
#
i
H4CITP|K,KX)sTP
iTPsIMNfK)
AVCTTP.K} SAVHN(K) fA(XTP,K,KX)3TMP ITP3 X M N(K ) l
IPtlTP.lT.DtTpaiS AVCTTP,K)=AVMN(K)
RA CTTP.K.KXjaTflP JTP=IHN(K)-a IFCITP.LT.1JTTPaiTP+ia
AVCTTP,!<3=AVM>JCK)
&4(ITP,K,KX)=TP C MgANS FC M0MH3 FOLLOWING WET 3EA30N
IFCNMXMN.LT.lGn TO 3060 ITP=I?<XCK)
THP=NMXMN+1
TEMPSCAVMXK).1..AVMNK}]/TEMP on 3050 IXsl.NMXNN T H p 3 IX
I=IMXCK)+IX IPtI.6T12)I=I"i2 3050 4vCI,K)aAVlTP,K)-TEMP*TMP c
MEANJS Fn MONTHS FOLLOWING QV SEA30N
3060 IFCNHNHY.LT.i)GO TQ 3090 lrP=IMfjK)
TEMP=NMNMX+1
TEMPbCAVmX(K)",1-AVMNCK))/TEHP DP 3070 lXsl,Nf<N^X TMPsix
IsJMNfKWlX IPCI.GT.12)1=1-12 3070 AvCI,KJSAVClTPfK)+TEMP*TMP
3080 CONTINUE 3090 Ir?N'L50 I?C!.1NS0 GH TO 1730
3100 IPCN'VG. LE. O.AN'O. NPROJ. LE. 0. AMO. NPASS. LE. 1) GO
TO J50
CP * * * * * * FLOI GENS*TION EQUATIONS ************* NINDPSNSTA
NVAP3NSTA+1 DO 3200 1=112 Ipsi-X
IF CIP.LT.I) IP=12 on 31*3.0 K
S
11 MST4 Dn 31^0 L
3
1 N3T*
C C0KRELATI0N3 IN CUPRENT ONTH
IF CL.I5E.K) GO TO 3120 ? fLWVAP) a DBl.CACI,K,L)) nn 311.0
LA=L,
N
5TA LVSLA+N3TA
IF CL4.LT.K3 5 CLJLA) s OBLE CRA (I/LLA))
IF CL*.GE.K) 3(L,LA) 3 DbLE(K*(I#LLX))
3110 RfL*.Ljsjj(L#L*)
GO TO 3140
C CHRREL4TI0N3 KITH PPECEDING XQNTH
313C LXSL+NSTA
m.NVAS) = 0lECSACI#K,LX3)
on 3130 LA=L,NSTA
*a.L*) = 08LE(RA(IP,LILA))
3130
r
-<(LA,L)3RCL<LA)
31C CONTINUE
C 3SSSSSS333
C*LL CSOUTC)
c S=3==S=S=B
Dn 3150 L
s
1 N3T4 3150 -*ET4 CI*L)
S
B(L)
IFCnTPMC.LE.l.) GO TO 3170 RITE C6.3160)I,K,0TRHC 3160 FQPHAT
C3H INCONSISTENT CDRREL MATRIX FQ3 I=,I3,4H K3,I2,
* * *
2422
223
2024
2025
2426
2427
2428
2429
2430 243
2432
2433 2034
2435
2436
2437 2433 2439 2^40 244J 2^42 2443 2404 2445'
2446
2447
2448
2449 2050
2451
2452
2453
2454
2455
2456
2457
2458
2459
2460
2461 *
2462
2463
2464
2465
2466
2467 2463
2469
2470
2471 2472ftO0
2473
2474 2475000 2476000
2477
2478
2479
2480 2091000 2482 2433000 2'4 2405 2436 2487
2438
2439
2490
2491
2492 2493000
21"
EXHIBIT 6
**********
11H Drf?HS = ,F&.j5 ITSWS32
an ro 1730 3l7c IP(DTfiHC.BE.o.) RO TO 35?0 i<RITE(6
#
70J
I,K,DTRiC OTH^CSO.
310 I.CFTCl.iOsCS ,DTHMC3**.3 31<3C CONTINUE 320C CONTINUE C
****** GENERATE Fl.Q! 5 *****
IFCNPAS3.LE, 1) 30 Tfl 32flQ 321C IF(LSTAT.Eq.nSTAT) GQ TO
3220 PAD C13 TAT)
L3TATSL3TAT+1 Gn rrj 3210
3220 &ITE (I3TAnrmx,N8TA, (XSTA (K) ,Ksl , N3TA)
.3TATSN3TAT + 1 lSTAT=N3TAT Dn 3230 K1 N T A
v
<
n
ITE (JSTAT3 ISTA(K) , CAV(I,X) ,gn(l,K3 3XCW(I,K) #05fl,i<)
,
1 t9ETACIK#L),lal,NSTA),ALCFT(I,K31=1,12)
3230 N3TAT3N3TAT+1 L..1TAT3N3TAT
IFCIPA33.LT.NPA333 SO Tn 200 32^0 J A a l
I o A 3 s s l
NeO
MASO
IF tNPR0J.tE.03 GQ TO 3310 CU ***** * P?n JECTEO FLOW
3EOUEVCE3 ************* 3250 JA=IY8PJIYSA NT=LYPPJtYSA ITHP=0
TPSMTHPJ-XMNTH-I IFCITP.NE.03 GS TO 3260 ITMP=12
326C IF fITP.LT.l) ITPSITP+12 Mis CJA-I)*t2 + ITP + 1-ITHP Dn
3290 K=1,mSTA
IF CsnCITP,K) .EO.0..CS.HA.EO.1) Gn TO 3280 TFMPsALno CoCriA, K)
+3CI tP , 3 3 *.<132945 OPSEV ClOsCTf^P-AVCITP,*))
/SDITP,K)
IF SKEWCITP.K) .Ea.O.) G TO 32*50
TEPPa
4
5*SKEW(lTP,K)*QPHEvCK)+l,
TMPsi.
TF CTEMP.Gt.0.3 00 TO 3370 TEHPS-TEMP)
TfP = C-T^P3
3270
TPBEV(K)s6.*cTf'P*TEMP**(l./3.)i.)/SKEWClTP,K)tSKE^ClTP,K)/6,
en to 32*10 3280 J2SEvCK)sO,
32*50 CONTINUE . JX=IYRPJ1
C N 3 3E')UENC NO., M a MONTH NO,, JX s YEAR
HCs

3300 Nsfc + 1
Gn TO 3330
C 3T
4
ST WITH ZERO DEVI*TION AT ALU 3TATI0N3
3310 Dn 3320 K=1,K3TA 3320 QPFSV CX)SO.
C SECATE 2 YEARS FOR DISCARDING
H J = 2 Jv = -2
3330 IF(NBA33.LE.13 GO TO 3CC IFflpAss.ST.l3 50 TO 3340 RFhTNO
I3TAT
NOTAPso
I3TApao 330 HPWINO IQTAP LfiSTApao
RAr!n3TAT)NST3X,>STA
f
(ISTA CX3 ,Kai,N3TA)
N3TsNgTXX"l
IFCM3TX.LE.0) GO TO 3380
* * * * 4 *
2<H4000
295
2496
2497 20 98
2499
2500
2501
2502
2503
2504
2505
2506
2507
2508
2509
2510
2511
2512
2513 2510
2515
2516
2517
2518
2519
2520 ?52 1
2522
2523
2524
2525
2526
2527 2523 2529
2531
2532
2533
2534
2535
2536
2537
2538
2539 250 25 a i 2502 25^5 2S4 255
2546
2547
2548
2549
2550
2551
2552
2553 ?5S
2555
2556
2557 2553
2559
2560 25M
2562
2563
2564
2565
2566
EXHIBIT 6
-22
ITP=* JA 12* 1 2S67
Dn 3370 K = 1M8TX
?j6a

IPCIPA3S.lf.l3 GO TO 33f>0 25*9
135c f-AncrnTAPj XTE^P, COCH,K) ,*=g, JTPJ
2
57O
UrjTAP*t.eT*Pl 3571
IPCIT?HP.WE,ISTA(K)) GU Tn 3350>573 33*>C KEADCISTAT) i,
CAVCl,K},
3
r.CI.K),3KEwClX)0CI,K), (BTA(I,k,L),L! 2573
>.wSTA),ALCFTCI,K),iei,l2) a57<l
337C CHfTINue 2573
330 '^n 3390 K = N3TX5<,N9TA
?5
7
6

ISTAPSI9TAP+1 2577
IPCN.GT.O) UtPEV(K)aQ3TAP(I8TAP) 2578 3390 KKAnctsTAT)
IP.CAV1,K),
S
0 (J, K) , SKEW(IK).03<I,K),(3ETACI,K,L3 ,1*1 2579
l.MSTA)
p
A|.CFTfT,KJ,rsi
#
l?}
?5
80 C5 * * * * * r,Ng!?AT
COHRELATED STANDARD DEVIATE ********** 2581
3no XFCXPAS9.EQ.l3 .rxMPaJx 2532 NrOMfSMCGHfClPASg)
NTKrM*MTNOMClPAS33
on 3420 K=l,!i5TA 2583
!)n 3aio 1=1. 12 25
AVGI.KJBO. 2585
30v CXK3SO, 3586
3/lIC CnsTINUE 2597
32C CONTINUE 2588
IPCN.LE.Q3 <3n TQ 340 2589
iITECb,i03 2590
'RITE (6,34303 N 25*51
343C FPHMAT C27H GENERATED FLCVS FQR PEUIOD13) 2592000
IPCKPASS.GT.I) WfITE C6 26303 IP A33 2593
343C On 3510 JSJA,NJ ?594
M=12*J-13+1 2595
Dn ?500 1=1#13 2596
HSM1 2597
IPCNSTx.LE.03 GO TO 3460 2598
He, 350 K = 1 > MSTX 2599
3a5C !P5?VCK3=PCH,K3 2bOO
346C X? >H'.LE.MA3 GO TO 3500 26<U
an 3490 K=N3TXX,NSTA 2602
C RAMDOH COMPONENT 2603
TEf'PsO. 2604
nn 3370 L
=
1 * 6 2605
TP^PsTEHP+HNRENCIXX3 26C6
3i7C TF
M
PsTMPRNON (XXX) 2607
TF_>P=TEHP*AICFT CI,K3 26rt8
un 3480 L=1MSTA 2609
34*0 TFVPSTEMP+SETACI,K,L3*3PREVCL3 2610
AtfG(I,K)=AvRCIX)+TEMP 26J1
snv(I,K)aSDV(I,K)+TEHP*TfP 2feJ 2
r; f H , K 3 sTE^P 2613
-PSEV(X)=TEHP 2614
Ci^TINuE 2615
3^C Cof'TXNuE 2616
3f i C Cn<TINuE 2617
IF(NPASS.LE.1) GO TO 3550 2618
352C IP(LI3TAP.E0.N0TAP) GO TC 3530 2619
RE AP (lOTAP) 2620
LTTAPSLOTAP+I 2621
Gn TD 3520 2622
353C ITP=N.J*12M 2623
I?5TApaiSTAPNSTA*NSTX 2624
Dn >540 K=N3TXx*K8TA 2625
W5ITECIOTAP3 ISTA K3 # C8 H,K) ,MS2, ITP) 2626
N3T APSHOTAP+I 2627
11T Ap=IST AP +1 2628
IP (ISTaP.CT.KsTAP) GO TC 560
2629

35fi 0^TAp(l3TAp)=i3(XTP
f
K) 2630
355C ANL0G3NJ.JA+1 2631
Dn 3670 K=MST*X,NSTA 2622 *
Ir (Sj + jXTt''P.r.T,0) WRITE (6,26603 C MO C13 r I
s
1> 2) 2633
*
Q~ 756o i = j,i 2 2634
Av-GfX,K3=AvG(I,K)/ANL0G ,
2635

5
5
VfI,K) = ((3DVCI#
i
<3AvGCl>!
{
3**2*AKLDG3/A
N
l-Ol)**5 2636
?3*
EXhTBXT 6
3560 CONTINU .XajXTM*
on *660 JSJA.NJ
JX=JX*t
M3l2*Jll
IF (Jx.LE.03 GO TO 3660 ITPaO
DO 36S0 i=tia ;ian*l
IF (M.LE.MA) QC TO 3600 C TRANSFORM TO UCG PEASON TYPE III
VARIATE (FLOW)
T
M
Pa3KE-<I,X)
IFCANLQG.GT,19..AND.SDVI,*).ST.O.)
3 0(M,K) = (CM,K)-AvGCt,O)/3
D
v<j,K)
IF TXp.EO.O.) SO TO 36CC
n
" TMpa({TP*(Q(M,KJ-TMP/b.}/6,*l.j3 1,)*2./TUP
TEHPa(-2.)/3KEWCIJ<) l*(SKEwl#K)) 3580,3600,3590 330
IF(THP.GT.TEMMJTMP=TEMP 50 TO 3610 359C IPCTMP.LT.TEHP] THPa?gMP
fin TO 3610 3600 TMPsa(M#K)
3610 IF(TMP.GT.2..AN0.3D(I,K).ST,.3) TMPa2.*CTMP-a,)*.3/3DCIK)
2638
260Q
261
2M2
2603
ibn
2605
2606
2607
2608 2609 2650
2651
WlTHDREw 2652 265.3 2650
2655
2656 5657
2658
2659
2660 2661

TM?STMP*30CI,K)+AV(I,<)

2662

Q(N,K)=10.**TMP-D0(I#K)

2663

ITMPCN3UM(KIPA33)


IF(ITMP.LE.O) GO TO 3630


TFHPaC.

2666

00 3630 L
3
i *I
T
HP

2667

LvsxsTCK,L,lP4S3)

3&2C TFHP=TEV(> + Q(H,LX)

2669

IFCaCM,K).LT.TEMp) <3 (N, K 3 TEMP

2670
3630 If tQCM,K:.LT.O,,.AND.OMIK
(r,K5.GE.0.) QH,K)0,

2671
3600 1(3 CTjaoCHK) + ,5

2673

ITPatTP+lQCI)

2673
3650 CONTINUE

2670
C

MTHOPEW
2675

ID 133alTP

2676

WSITF 6,100)
I3TACK),JX,lt3fI),Ial,13)

2677

IFCTPCH1.LE.03G0 TO 3660

2678

"PITE (7.2730) I3TAK),
JX,10(13,1=1,12)

2679
3660 CONTINUE

2680
36?o CHNTINIJE

2681

IFCNCHHB.LE.O) fio TO 3720

2682

Dn 3710 JSJA.NJ

263

M=1?*J-11

36/14

Dn 3700 T--U12

2685

2686
C COMPUTE COMQINiTiriN FLOv.3

2687

on 36^0 Kxsi.Nco.Ma

26*6
. Ksxy+NgTA

2689

ITPaNSTAC(KX,IPA333


ri(H,K3sO.

2691

Dn 1630 L
S
1I
TP


2692

ITEMP3K3TAC(K*,L,IPA3S)


BM,K)flc*,K)+Q{M,ITE>'P)*C3TACCKx
,l,I?A93)

3690 CONTINUE

2693
3700 CONTINUE

2696
3710 CnNTIKuS

2697
3720 IP(N.LT.NPnj) SO TO 3250

2698

IFCNYNXG.LE.a3G0 TQ 3*00

2699
C3 *
*
* * * * MAX ANO *JN GEKERATEO
FLOwS *****
*
*
* t
*
***** 2700

1PCJX.LE.03G0 TO 3870

2701
C 3KIP KXMIN IF SE*AJNJNG YEAS3 NSUFFICJENT 2702

IFCJX.GT.0.AND.NJ.LT.VYKXG3G0 TO
150

2703

ITRN3SQ

2704
3730 I??=N3TA+MC0M3

2703

00 3600 KSNSTXX.ITP

270s
C MAX CALENDAR MC 1-12, MAx MO 13 6-
MO

50-
MQ
15 2707

On 3700 1*1.15

2703
EXHIHIT 6
-24-
370 S*3(I,K)a-T

2709
C HIN CAL&N'sJAK Itc 16-27, HJN
MO
2
,
6"HQ 3, 5M(J
JO
2710

nn 3750 1316,30

2711
3750 3H0 (TK)sT

2712
C TMP * 6-MQ, TE^P a 5-MC VOLUME/ T^PA a I.MO 2713

TEH.oan.

271**

TMpro.

2715

AVGOCK)30.

2716

NpaQ

2717

rtsi

2718

IF (ITPN3,GT.O) M=CW-
i)*MXRC3*131

2719

OH 37<?0 J=1,UJ

2720

Dn 37B0 I112

2721

IX3I+15

2722

HSH+!

2723

TMPiaS M,K)

272

AVGOCK)=AVgDK3+TMPA

2735

NIJ3NIJ + 1

2726

IF(TMPA.6T.SMO(I,K>)S*Q(I,X)=T
tfPA

2727

IF(TKPA.LT.SMH(IXK))SMIJ
!X,X)sTMPA

2728

XF(THPA.f,T.3H0(l3#K)]S(10(l3,
K)sTHpA

2729

IF
(TMPA,LT.3MQ(2S,0iSttCSIK)sT
HPA

2730

TMP=TMP+TMPA

2731

TEMPsTEMP + TMfsA

2732

IF(M.LT.8)G0 TO 3760

2733

TMP=THP-O(H-6K)

273a

IFCTMP.57.SMQCi,K))SMQ(lfl,K3
=THP

2735

rF(TMP.J.T3M0t29,f<J)SKCf29,K
)aTMP

3736

IFff.LT.56)150 TO 3770

2737

T*P=TEMP-Q (M54,K)

2738

IF(TEHP,GT.SM315,K) 3
8MC"15,K)sTEKP

2739

IF(TEMP.LT.S<JC3Q,K))3H0(3O,K
)STEMP

270

Gn TO 3730

2741
3760 3H
!
?n,K)TMp

272
3770 SMi3l5,K)sTErP

273
3780 Cns'TINUE

274
37'3
C
CONTINUE

2745
C AVERAGE MONTHU^ FLOW

2746

TEHPSNQ

?.7<7

AVGaCK)SAVG3K)/TEHP

?.?oa
3600 CONTINUE

2709

WPITE 6,10)

2750

IF (ITRN8.6T.il) WRITE Cb
3810) H.NJ

2.751
Ifil
O
FORHAT (/27H MAXIMUM VQLU^ES
F0 PEKIOD,
13
,
3H OF,Ifl, 2752000
1 1 - ?H YEARS OF RECORPED AND
RECONSTITUTED
FLOWS) 2753000

IF (TT3N3.LE.0)WIT6,38
20)N,NJ

275a
3820 r n^HAT {/27H MAXIMUM VOLUMES
FoR PEPI0O,
13
,
3H OF,la, 2755000
i 25H YEAH3 OF SYMTHf-TIC FtHwS)

2756000

;JITE(6,810) M(J(I),Iai,12)

2757

t T F s s S T A + N C 0 ri

2758

;>n 3sao KBNSTXX.ITP

2759

TE?aAVG0(K)*.5

2760

0n 3B30 131,15

2761
3B3C I0(T)ssMa(IiK)*.5

2762

woiTEf680)lSTACK)(10
(I)Tal,15),ITEHP

3763
3840 CHVTINUE

2764

W<JirE(f>,8S0)

2765

wPITE(fe.fllO)(M0(I),I*l,i2)

2766

an 3860 K=NSTXX,ITP

2767

on ?850 131.15

2768
3850 10 r T)3SMfj(l + l5,K) + .5

2769

WRITE(6.80)I3TA(K),CIU(I)la
1,15)

2770
38*0 COVTINUE

2771
C TRANSFER S4CK To RECONSTITUTED FLQWS 2772

IF(TT9NS.GT.0)G0 TO 2920

2773
387C N.T = NyMSCC

277a

!?n TO 3890

2775
38B0 MJ a Ky9

2776
3Q
a
0 IF(NPAS8.LE.l) GO TO 3*500

2777

t p 4 eaIPSS*1

2778

:F(H.EO.O.ANO.IPA3S.Le.KPASS)
GO TO 3310

2779

IF(TPAS3.1E.NPAS9) SO TO 3340

2780
-25
Exwian 6
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-27- EXKtBIT
EXHIBIT 7
VARIABLE
1. IYRA
2. IMNTH
3. IANAL
k. MXHCS
5. KYRG
6. NYMXG
7. NPASS
8. IPCHQ
9. IPCHS 10. NSTA
1. NCOMB
2. NTNDM
3. NCSTY
INPLJT DATA 723-X6-L2340
COMMBNTS
Three title cards, first must have A in column 1.
First specification card.
- Earliest year of record at any station.
- Calendar month number of first month of water year.
- Indicator, positive valu calis for statistical analysis
routines.
- Number of years in each period of recorded and re--
constituted flows for which mximum and mnimum vales are to
be obtained, dimensioned for 100.
- Total number of years of hypothetical flows to be generated.
- Number of years in each period of generated flows which
mximum and mnimum vales are to be obtained, dimensioned for
100.
- Number of consecutive passes, each pass consisting of a new
group of stations which can be correlated with specified
stations in previous passes, dimensioned for 5.
- Indicator, positive valu calis for writing recorded and
reconstituted flows and generated flows on Tape 7.
- Indicator, positive valu calis for writing stat- istics on
Tai 7.
- Number of stations at which flows are to be generated, not
required if flow data are supplied. NSTA + NCOMB (C-l)
dimensioned for 10.
Second specification card.
- Number of combinations of stations, the totals of which are
used to obt&in mximum and minimum flows, dimensioned for 2.
If positive, provide D and E cards.
- Number of tndem situations, compares sum of monthly vales of
upstream stations with downstream station
and adjusts if valu is less than sum and that stations valu
has been estimated or generated, dimensin for 10. If positive,
provide F card.
Number of consistency tests. Adjusts standard deviation of a
dependent station in tndem with an independent station to
prevet frequency curves from Crossing, dimensioned for 10. If
positive, provide G card.
EXHIBIT 7
CARD VARIABLE
COMMEHTS
C (Coirtd)
4. IGHRL
5. NPROJ
6.
7.
8.
IYRPJ
MTHPJ
LYRPJ
Indicator, + 1 calla for reading generalized statistics and
using for generation, + 2 calis for ccm- puting generalized
statistics from flow data and using for generation.
Number of projections of future flows frcan present conditions ,
usually 0.
Year of start of each projection.
Calendar month of start of each projection. last year of each
projection, number of recorded and reconstituted years plus
number of projected years dimensioned for 100.
Identification of combination, NCOMB (C-l) sets of D and E
cards.
E
1.
2.
NSPAC
ISTAC
Number of stations in this combination, dimensioned for 10.
Station number (H3EA.C vales). .... ,
Combining coefficients, NCOMB (C-l) sets of D and E cards.
1.
2.
1.
2.
3.
NSTAC
CSTAC
ISTN
NSMX
ISTT
Same as D-l.
Coefficient of flow used for adding, corresponds to respective
items in D-2.
Identification of tndem situation, NTNDM (C-2) cards.
Station number of downstream station.
Number of upstream stations, dimensioned for 10. Station number
of upstream station (NSMX vales).
Identification of consistency test, NCSTY (C-3) cards.
H
1.
2.
ISTX
ISTY
Independent station number.
Dependent station number.
Flow data, cards in any order, omit if IANAL (3-3) is not
positive, follow all flow data cards by 1 blank card (i card).
1. Cois 2-4, Station number
2. Cois 5-8, Year number.
2
EXHIBIT 7
CARD VARIABLE
H (Contd)
CCMMENTS
3. Cois 9-14, 15-20, etc., Flow in desired units. Units should be
selected so generated flows will not exceed 999,999. Use -1
for missing record. If record for entire year is missing, omit
card for that year.
I Card blank after Col 1 to indcate end of
flow data,
omit if IANAL (B-3) is not positive.
1. NCOMB
2. NTNDM
3. NCSTY
4. NSTX
5. ISTA
Identification of stations in previous passes to be used in
current pass, supply only if NPASS (B-7) is greater than 1. The
variables NCOMB, NTNDM, and NCSTY apply to the current pass
only.
Number of combinations of stations, the totals of . which are
used to obtain mximum and minimum flows, dimensioned for 2. If
positive, provide D and E cards. Number of tndem situations,
compares sum of monthly vales of upstream stations with
downstream station and adjusts if valu is less than sum and
that stations valu has been estimated or generated, dimensin
for 10. If positive, provide F card.
Number of consistency tests. Adjusts standard deviation of a
dependent station in tndem with an independent station to
prevent frequency curves from Crossing, dimensioned for 10. If
positive, provide G card.
Number of stations from previous passes which are to be used
with the additional data in current pass as a means of
maintaining consistent flows between groups of stations, number
of stations from previous passes plus number of new stations
dimensioned for 10.
Station number of station in a previous pass which is to be used
in current pass (NSTX vales). Must be in same order as stations
first appear.
Note: Flow data for current pass supplied as described for H
card and follow data with a blank card (i card), supply NPASS-
1 sets of J, H, and I cards (also D,E,F, and G, if necessary)
when NPASS greater than 1.
K Preceding-month correlation coefficients
for first
station, omit if IANAL (B-3) is positive (NSTA cards).
1. ISIA(K) - Cois 2-b, Number of first station.
2. ISTA(L) - Cois 5-8, Number of station from 1. to NSTA (B-10)
on
successive cards. If IGNRL (C-b) = 1, only first card is used.
3. RA(l,K,LX) - Cois 9-ib, 15-20, etc., Correlation coefficients
for successive months between flows at first station and
preceding-month flows at stations from 1 to NSTA (B-1.0) on
separate cards. If IGNRL (C-i<-) = 1, only generalized
coefficient (in cois 9-1*0 is given.
3
EXHIBIT 7
CARD
VARIABLE
CCMMENTS
L*
M*
N
1. ISTA(K)
2. ISPA(L)
3. RA(l,X,L)
1. ISTA(K)
2. ISTA(L) -
3. RA(l,K,LX)-
1. ISTA(K)
2.
3.
4.
AVMX(K)
AVMN(K)
SDAV(K)
Current-month correlation coefficients, omit if IAHAL (B-3) is
positive, (NSTA-1) pairs of L and M cards.
Cois 2-4, Number of station, progressing from K = 2 through NSTA
(B-IO) stations on different sets of L and M cards.
Cois 5-8, Number of station, progressing on different cards
through all stations from L = 1 to X-l.
Cois 9-14, 15-20, etc., Correlation coefficient for each
successive calendar month between flows at station K and
concurrent flows at station L (12 items). If IGNRL (C-4) = 1,
only generalized coefficient in cois 9-14 is given.
Preceding-month correlation coefficients for remaining stations,
omit if IANAL (B-3) is positive. Paired with L card.
Cois 2-4, Same station number as on corresponding L card (L-1).
Cois 5-8, Number of station, progres sing in same order on
different cards through all stations from L = 1 to NSTA (B-10).
If IGNRL (C-4) = 1, only card with L K is used.
Cois 9-14, 15-20, etc., Correlation coefficient for each
successive calendar month between flows at station K and flows
in preceding month at station L (12 items).
If IGNRL (C-4) = 1, only generalized coefficient in Cois 9-14 is
given.
Generalized frequency statistics, omit if IAHAL (B-3) is
positive or IGNRL (C-4) does not equal 1.
Cois 2-8, Station number for NSTA (B-10) stations on successive
cards in same order as supplied by L cards (L-1).
Cois 9-14, Average mean logarithm for wet season (3 months).
Cois 15-20, Average mean logarlthm for dry season (3 months).
Cois 21-26, Average standard deviation for the 12 months.
* Sets of L and M cards are required for each station from K = 2
to NSTA.
EXHIBIT 7
CARD VARIASES
N (Contd)
5. MCMX(K)
6. MCMT(K)
0
1. ISTA(K)
2. AV(l,K)
Q
R
1. ISTA(K)
2. SD(l,K)
1. ISTA(K)
2. SKEW(l,K)
1. ISTA(K)
2. DQ(I,K)
COMMENTS
Calendar number of last month of vet season.
Calendar number of last month of dry season.
Mean logarithms, omit if IAHAL (B-3) is positive or IGNRL (C-4)
equals 1.
Same as (M-l).
Cois 9-14, 15-20, etc., Mean logarithms for successive calendar
months.
Standard deviations, omit if IAHAL (B-3) is positive or IGNRL
(C-4) equals 1.
Same as (M-l).
Cois 9-14, 15-20, etc., Standard deviations for successive
calendar months.
Skew coefficients, omit if IANAL (B-3) is positive or IGNRL (C-
4) equals 1.
Same as (M-l).
Cois 9-14, 15-20, etc., Skew coefficients for successive
calendar months.
Flow increments, omit if IANAL (B-3) is positive or IGNRL (C-4)
equals 1.
Same as (M-l).
Cois 9-14, 15-20, etc., Flow increments for successive calendar
months.
Five "blank cards with A in Col 1 of first should follow last
job.
Note: Cards K through R are not required if cards H and I are
supplied. Cards K through R are as punched by Computer when
IPCHS is positive.
5
EXHIBIT 7
EXHIBIT 8
SUMMAHY OF REQUIRED CAHDS T23-X6-L23
1
+0
(See I card)
NPASS-1 sets (l)
H /(See H card)
COMB NTNDM NCSTY NSTX ISTA ISTA__ NSTX Vales
(1) I (1) H NCSTY cards G
31ank card after all data
IYR]
Q Q Q (12 Vales) format 214, 12F6.0
'ISTX ISTY
1
NTNDM cards F /ISTN NSMX ISTT ISTT-.. NSMX, Valu
1________________________________ L
NCOMB
sets
E ^NSTAC ^ CSTAC ^ CSTAC ^ ^ NSTAC ^ Valu?
D NSTAC ISTAC ISTAC ... NSTAC Valu?
i,------- i --- L-... i -- 1 --- i
C NCOMB NTNDM NCSTY IGNKL NPROJ IYEPJ MPHPJ LYRPJ

J_____ L
IMNTH IflHAL MXRCS NYRG HYMXG NPASS IPCHQ IPCHS NSTA
. 1. .... 1.. _ - 1 1 i I 1 1 ^
, OUTPUT TIPLE CARD
OUTPUT
TITLE
CARD
/
/
/
/
Notes:
(l) Supply only if IANAL (B3) is positive. Rspeat H card for
each station-year of data before supplying i card.
1
EXHIBEP 8
SMMAHT OF BEQUIRED CARDS Continned 723-X6-L23
i
<0
NSTA sets (i*)
(2)(3)(M
L
L

(2)(4) K

J_____ I ___ I ___ L
5 Blank cards with A in Col 1 of first cause STOP
DQ ..... (12 Vales _)
'ISTA SKES SKEW... (12 Vales^ omit
(
if IGNKL (04)
f ~ i t 1
SD.... (12 Vales)
i
AV.... (12 Vales)
TA AVMX AVMN SDAV MOMX MOMN
!TA(K) ISTA(L) RA(l,K,LX) RA(2,K,LX) BA(12,K,LX)
Cards for L from K to NSTA
TA(k) ISTA(L) RA(1,K,L) RA(2,K,L) RA(l2,K,L)
Cards for L from 1 to K-l
STA(l) ISTA(L) RA(1,K,LX) RA(2,K,LX) RA(l2,K,LX)
Cards for L from 1 to NSTA
/
(2) L designates correlation with current month and LX with
preceding month. If IGNHL(C^) = 1, only one (generalized)
coefficient is given following station numbers on each card
and only 1 K and M card is used for each K station, with L =
K Use same format as H card.
(3) Repeat set of L and M cards for each K station exce-pt
first.
(4) Omit if IANAL (B3) is positive.
EXHIBID 8