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TO: Interested Parties

FROM: Carl Kuhl, Tom Erickson, McFadden for Senate
RE: One Of These Things Is Not Like The Other Recent MN Senate Polling
DATE: October 7, 2014

Last nights KSTP/SurveyUSA poll on the Minnesota Senate race will undoubtedly be the talk of
the states political scene over the next few days, and for good reason it conflicts with the other
polls conducted over the same time period.

First of all, this memo will not argue that Mike McFadden is tied or within the margins of Senator
Franken. We know we are trailing, but with the exception of SurveyUSA, polls show that
McFadden is gaining on Senator Franken.

As the polls below show, Senator Franken does have a lead in this race that is outside the margin
of error. But two of the three surveys conducted in late September and early October show
Franken under 50% and McFadden trailing by single digits.

Figure 1.1 Recent MN-Sen Polling
Rasmussen Reports CBS News/NYT/YouGov KSTP/SurveyUSA
Dates: 9/29-9/30 Dates: 9/20-10/1 Dates: 9/30-10/2
Franken 49% Franken 49% Franken 55%
McFadden 41% McFadden 42% McFadden 37%

Here, SurveyUSA stands alone and Minnesota isnt the only state where this is the case.

As the National Review wrote this morning, Democrats consistently do better in SurveyUSA polls
than those from just about every other polling outfit. By their count, SurveyUSA polls for the
Kentucky Senate race, Florida Governors race, and the Georgia Senate and Governors races all
show Democrats running stronger than other recent public polls. From the National Review
(emphasis added):

Monday Survey USA released a poll of Kentucky voters showing Democrat Alison
Lundergan Grimes up by 2 in the Senate race. Not only is that the first poll to show
Grimes ahead since June, every other poll since July had Mitch McConnell ahead by at
least 4. The previous most recent poll, by the CBS News/New York Times, had
McConnell up by 6.

Wednesday SurveyUSA had Charlie Crist up by 6; two weeks earlier, they had Rick Scott
ahead by 1, and two weeks before that they had Scott ahead by 5. Other pollsters have
not seen the same dramatic shift in Crists favor.
***
Wednesday, Sept 26, SurveyUSA released a poll that had Republican David Purdue up 1
in Georgias Senate race; thats the smallest lead any pollster has found in the past six
polls.

They found Jason Carter, the Democrat, up 1 in the governors race. That was the only
poll in the last five to have Carter ahead.


CBS News/NYT/YouGov July-To-October

The tracking survey from CBS News/NYT/YouGov show a race that is tightening, with Frankens
14-point lead from July now cut in half to just seven points.



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Figure 1.2 CBS News/NYT/YouGov Poll Results

DATE FRANKEN McFADDEN DIFFERENTIAL
7/5-7/24 55% 41% +14% Franken
8/18-9/2 49% 41% +8% Franken
9/20-10/1 49% 42% +7% Franken
(Source: Real Clear Politics, accessed October 7, 2014)

But CBS News/NYT/YouGov didnt just poll Minnesota they polled every U.S. Senate race in
the country. What these surveys concluded is that the Minnesota Senate race is now a much
tighter race than those in Virginia and Oregon, with Sen. Franken and McFadden locked in a race
as tight as the nationally watched New Hampshire race. According to the CBS
News/NYT/YouGov poll, Minnesotas Senate race is now the eighth most competitive Democrat-
held Senate seat.

Figure 1.3 CBS News/NYT/YouGov Poll Results, released Oct. 5, 2014

STATE GOP DEMOCRAT DIFFERENTIAL
Kansas 40% 40%* +0
Iowa 43% 44% +%1 D
North Carolina 45% 46% +1% D
Colorado 45% 48% +3% D
Arkansas 45% 41% +4% R
Georgia 47% 43% +4% R
Louisiana** 32% 36% +4% D
Michigan 41% 46% +5% D
Alaska 48% 42% +6% R
Kentucky 47% 41% +6% R
Minnesota 42% 49% +7% D
New Hampshire 41% 48% +7% D
Mississippi 46% 35% +11% R
Illinois 39% 51% +12% D
Virginia 39% 51% +12% D
Oregon 39% 52% +13% D
South Dakota 42% 27% +15% R
* - As no Democrat is on the ballot in the Kansas Senate race, these numbers reflect the support of independent
candidate Greg Orman.
** - Poll results listed for the November 4th election. If no candidate attains 50%, a runoff will be held on December 6,
2014. A separate poll was conducted for the runoff election.

As Figure 1.3 shows, the Minnesota Senate race presents a much more favorable pickup
opportunity than either Oregon or Virginia. McFadden trails Franken by seven percentage points
while holding Franken to under 50%. In Virginia, Democrat Senator Mark Warner is over 50%
leads Republican challenger Ed Gillespie by 12 percentage points. The race in Oregon paints a
similar picture to the Old Dominion, with Democrat Senator Jeff Merkley over 50% with
Republican Monica Wehby trailing by 13% percentage points $1.7 million in spending in
Wehbys favor notwithstanding.

Despite being outspent nearly four-to-one by Senator Franken and receiving no support on the
airwaves from independent groups, the McFadden campaign has been able to close the gap to
just seven percentage points the same differential found in New Hampshires Senate race.
While the polls in these states are nearly identical, they are different in one regard: outside
spending. Whereas Minnesota has been devoid of any outside spending, residents of New
Hampshire have seen over $13 million in outside spending.

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Speaking of outside spending, Everytown For Gun Safety began airing TV spots in the Twin
Cities market today in support of Senator Frankens campaign. Meanwhile, mailboxes in the Twin
Cities region have been flooded with anti-McFadden mailers from Americans for Responsible
Solutions PAC. With control of the Senate on the line, it strains credulity to believe that liberal
causes would throw money at a race in which they lead by 18-points. Given the stakes on
November 4
th
, it would be political malpractice for Democrats to spend precious funds on a race
they believe is over.

With political reporters like Chris Cillizza beginning to compare the 2014-midterm elections to the
wave year of 2006, dont be surprised to see races like McFadden v. Franken continue to tighten
as voters turn away from an unpopular president and the politicians who support him 97% of the
time.

Contact:
McFadden for Senate Communications
(651) 252-6013
press@mikemcfadden.com

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