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6Activity
accordance with your Request for Proposal and the terms of our
engagement letter dated June26, 2009, Pinnacle Advisory Group has
evaluated potential demand levels for hotel development onsix potential
sites within Downtown Frederick, Maryland. Our analysis included
extensive market-based research including an area review, an analysis of
the existing competitive lodging facilities,and demand-based research. A
site analysis was also prepared, which includes recommendationsfrom a
lodging market perspective (prepared by Pinnacle) and from a design
perspective (preparedby OPX). Based upon the data available, along with
our own analyses, opinions, and conclusions,we have
opined on each of the six sites
suitability for hotel development, prepared facilityrecommendations,
made projections of occupancy, average daily rate, and cash flow,
estimateddevelopment costs, produced a forecast of economic impact,
determined the financial feasibility ofthe development, and presented
examples of private/public partnerships for similar type projects.The
conclusions presented in this report are based upon our current
knowledge of the market forlodging and related ancillary facilities in
the defined market area as of the completion of ourfieldwork conducted
during the months of August and September, 2009.
As in all studies of this type, the estimated annual performance levels
for the hotel are based oncompetent and efficient management and presume
no significant changes in the competitivedynamics in the market other
than those specifically discussed in the report. Projections
containedherein are based upon estimates and assumptions that are
subject to uncertainty and variability.While we do not represent the
projected results as those which will ultimately be achieved, we
haveprepared them conscientiously based upon the most reliable forms of
information available to usand our extensive experience in the lodging
industries. We have no obligation, unless subsequentlyso engaged, to
update this study because of events occurring subsequent to the
completion of thisstudy.
We appreciate having the opportunity to present this summary of our
findings to you. Please do nothesitate to call us should you have any
questions or wish to have us elaborate on any of thematerial presented
in this report.Sincerely,Pinnacle Advisory Group and OPX
Table of Contents Hotel Market Demand Study
Frederick, MD
Pinnacle Advisory Group and OPX
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
................................................................................
..................
1
Introduction and Scope
................................................................................
.............
5
Area Analysis
................................................................................
...........................
8
Subject Hotel
.................................................................... 43
Financial Projections
................................................................................
..............
47
Development Costs
................................................................................
.................
62
Site Analysis and Proposed Building Layouts
............................................................ 63
Economic Impact
................................................................................
...................
74
Financial Feasibility of Development
........................................................................ 78
Assumptions and Limited Conditions
........................................................................ 80
Executive Summary Hotel Market Demand Study
Frederick, MD
Pinnacle Advisory Group and OPX
1
Executive Summary
Pinnacle Advisory Group and OPX were engaged by the Downtown Hotel and
ConferenceCenter Team, which includes The Frederick County Chamber of
Commerce Major EmployersGroup, The City of Frederick Department of
Frederick, MD
Pinnacle Advisory Group and OPX
2
preferable to any other location throughout Frederick for such an
event.Given the lack of an existing upscale full-service hotel, we
believe that there will be asignificant amount of new induced demand
that will be included into the market as a resultof a new Downtown
full-service hotel. New demand will be generated from new groups
Frederick, MD
Pinnacle Advisory Group and OPX
3
From a development perspective, site size, height restrictions, and
environmental site issueswill have a significant impact on the ability
to develop the ideal hotel facility. Additionally,monetary benefits such
as costs to acquire the land and tax credits may make certain sitesmore
or less attractive to a developer. Other site attributes such as
availability of existingparking or the ease of developing parking as
well as site topography may have an impact ondevelopment costs.From a
lodging demand perspective, the seamless integration with Downtown, such
as itswalkability and its proximity to restaurants, retail, and
entertainment, will be one of themost important factors for the site.
The appeal of a Downtown site comparative to otherhotels in the lodging
market will be lost the further from the Downtown core the site is.Other
attributes such as accessibility, visibility, Carroll Creek frontage and
views, may alsoadd to the desirability of the site.
Frederick, MD
Pinnacle Advisory Group and OPX
4
all in development cost estimate (inclusive of land) of $45 million.
Based on an assumedmortgage of approximately $20 million (45 percent of
total), we estimate that approximately$25 million in equity would be
necessary to complete the development. Based on the cashflow projections
and an assumption of a reasonable expected rate of return, we believe
thata developer would invest $12 to $13 million into the development. As
such, we believe thatan additional $12 to $13 million would need to be
generated in the form of deferred loans(from city, county, and/or
state), TIF, local investors, land, parking, grants, etc.
Economic Impact
Based on the development of an upscale, 200-room full-service hotel with
14,000 squarefeet of meeting space in Downtown, we calculated both the
direct and indirect/inducedeconomic impact. Direct impact can be
calculated by considering the following: 1)construction costs,
construction labor, and the associated sales and payroll taxes 2)
salesfrom operational revenues and associated state sales taxes, 3)
costs of goods sold and thestate sales taxes paid, 4) total payroll and
estimated payroll taxes, and 5) real estate taxes.In addition, one must
consider indirect and induced impact. Indirect impact relates to jobsand
income of businesses that supply the hotel with goods and services.
Induced impactincludes the economic activity generated when employees
and suppliers of the hotel re-spend their wages on local consumer
products.Direct impact from the development was estimated to be $48
million during theconstruction phase and will generate between $25 and
$31 million per year in the first fiveyears of operation. For the
indirect/induced economic impact, a multiplier of 1.25 of directimpact
was used for our estimate, resulting in a total economic impact of $56
to $70million per year in the first five years of operation.
Introduction and Scope Hotel Market Demand Study
Frederick, MD
Pinnacle Advisory Group and OPX
5
Introduction and Scope
Introduction
Pinnacle Advisory Group and OPX were engaged by Frederick County Chamber
of Commercetogether with the City of Frederick Department of Economic
Development (DED), DowntownFrederick Partnership (Partnership), the
Frederick County Office of Economic Development(OED), the Tourism
Council of Frederick County and the Frederick area major employers,
toevaluate the demand for a proposed hotel and conference center
development in DowntownFrederick, Maryland. Six potential sites were
analyzed for hotel development throughoutDowntown Frederick. In addition
to opining on the most suitable sites for hotel developmentfrom both a
lodging market and design perspective, we were also tasked with
preparingfacility recommendations, making projections of occupancy,
average daily rate, and cashflow, estimating development costs,
producing a forecast of economic impact, addressingthe financial
feasibility of the development, and presenting examples of
private/publicpartnerships for similar type projects.The approval
process varies from community to community. However, for the purposes
ofthis analysis, we have assumed that the approval process through
Frederick, securingfinancing, and planning and design, would occur over
the next 2 to 3 years. As such, wehave assumed that the proposed hotel
would open in a 4 year time frame. For the purposesof our analysis, we
have assumed an opening date of January 1, 2014. Thus our projectionsare
presented in calendar years.
Scope of Research and Analysis
The primary scope of work completed during our research and analysis
included:1.
Examination of the six available sites and evaluation of the surrounding
environs ofeach of the sites with respect to its suitability for hotel
operations;2.
Meetings and discussions with representatives of the City, County, and
Chamber ofCommerce in Frederick to gather relevant data and input for
the proposeddevelopment;3.
Identification of the supply of existing hotels in Frederick, which we
deemed ofrelevance to this analysis. Properties were deemed to be of
relevance if they wouldpotentially compete for demand with the proposed
hotel;4.
Research with the primary and secondary set of hotels which included a
siteinspection and, in most cases, an interview at each property.
Frederick, MD
Pinnacle Advisory Group and OPX
6
Hampton Inn & Suites Frederick
Frederick, MD
Pinnacle Advisory Group and OPX
7
Maryland Library AssociationIt should be noted that several other area
corporations and state associations werecontacted for interviews,
however, during the timeframe of our study, only thecompanies and
associations listed above were available for interviews. Furthermore,the
state associations contacted for interviews were selected based on their
historyof holding overnight conferences in the Frederick area,
Frederick, MD
Pinnacle Advisory Group and OPX
8
Area Analysis
Frederick Overview
Frederick County is located in the west/central region within the State
of Maryland. It is thelargest county in size totaling 663 total square
miles. The City of Frederick (the County seat)and a community of small
towns, make up Frederick County, a region at the crossroads ofseveral
major highways connecting to the Greater Washington DC and Baltimore
areas.Washington DC (43 miles) and Baltimore (46 miles) represent the
two largest metropolitanareas outside of Frederick County.Frederick
is a historic community settled in the 1700s. For many years the
area served as abedroom community for the Washington DC and Baltimore
regions, however, in more recentyears, Frederick has experienced
significant growth in both population and employment. Theavailability of
affordable land, a highly educated workforce, and a high quality of
life, hasmade Frederick one of the fastest job growth locations in the
state and the region. Today,Frederick County has a population over
Frederick, MD
Pinnacle Advisory Group and OPX
9
Due to its significant economic growth, several development projects are
either underconstruction or under consideration to be built in
Frederick. Fort Detrick alone is undergoingapproximately $1.3 billion in
new construction. Major corporations such as NCI/SAIC-F andMedimmune are
undergoing expansion projects to their existing offices. Additionally,
severaloffice and retail developments are in the planning stages
including office buildings atThomas Johnson Drive,
McCutcheons Mill, McHenrys, Monocacy Valley Canning,
Northgate, Market Square, Clemson Corner, Frederick Brickworks,
Frederick Towne Mall,One Commerce Plaza, Union Mills, and the Galleria.
Furthermore, several publically fundedprojects are either under
construction or in the planning stages including the Carroll Creek
Park, East Street Gateway, Frederick Visitors Center, and the Board of
Education
Headquarters.
Area Analysis Hotel Market Demand Study
Frederick, MD
Pinnacle Advisory Group and OPX
10
Area Map
Area Analysis Hotel Market Demand Study
Frederick, MD
Pinnacle Advisory Group and OPX
11
Economic and Demographic Analysis
Based on a review of economic and demographic data compiled by Site to
Do Business(STDB) we have identified certain statistics that will
influence the demand for lodging. Thefollowing paragraphs discuss the
applicable data and are for general informational purposesonly.
Population
The following table outlines historical and projected population trends
for the City ofFrederick, Frederick County, Maryland, and the United
States as a whole.
Population
City of
FrederickState of
UnitedFrederickCountyMarylandStates199042,200150,2084,781,468248,709,873200052,7
67195,2775,296,486281,421,906200963,226232,6915,733,229309,299,265
Compound Annual Growth (CAGR)
CAGR 1990 - 20002.26%2.66%1.03%1.24%CAGR 2000 - 20092.03%1.97%0.88%1.06%
Projected
201467,154249,4375,913,034328,770,749CAGR 2009 20141.21%1.40%0.62%1.23%Source: STDB
As noted in the table above, population in the City and County of
Frederick has increased atstrong rates of growth since 1990. Between
1990 and 2009, the City and County ofFrederick has grown at a compound
annual rate of just over two percent compared toapproximately a one
percent growth in Maryland and the United States as a whole.Projections
made by STDB through 2014 indicate that population is expected to
increase ata compound annual growth of 1.21 percent in the City of
Frederick, while Frederick Countywill increase at a rate of 1.4 percent.
Average Household Income
The following table details average household income and compounded
annual growth ratesfrom 1990 until 2008 and projections for 2013 for the
City of Frederick, Frederick County,the State of Maryland, and the
United States.
Area Analysis Hotel Market Demand Study
Frederick, MD
Pinnacle Advisory Group and OPX
12
Average Household Income
City of
FrederickState of
UnitedFrederickCountyMarylandStates199039,53946,69047,90538,453200057,06469,9556
7,45456,644200971,62391,12185,71673,771
Compound Annual Growth (CAGR)
CAGR 1990 - 20003.74%4.13%3.48%3.95%CAGR 2000 - 20092.56%2.98%2.70%2.98%
Projected
201473,77593,69388,03787,814CAGR 2009 - 20140.59%0.56%0.54%3.55%Source: STDB
Frederick, MD
Pinnacle Advisory Group and OPX
13
Frederick City and County Employment Statistics
YearEmployment% ChangeEmployment% Change199021,293
80,342
199121,6601.7%
81,725 1.7%
199222,3223.1%
84,223 3.1%
199322,7321.8%
85,771 1.8%
199423,9115.2%
90,219 5.2%
199524,4922.4%
92,412 2.4%
199625,0052.1%
94,350 2.1%
199725,3461.4%
95,633 1.4%
199825,7391.6%
97,117 1.6%
199926,3372.3%
99,374 2.3%
200028,4167.9%
106,929 7.6%
200128,6810.9%
107,924 0.9%
200229,4132.6%
110,677 2.6%
200329,7961.3%
112,120 1.3%
200430,2531.5%
113,841 1.5%
200530,5010.8%
116,872 2.7%
200631,4813.2%
119,827 2.5%
200731,6610.6%
120,776 0.8%
200831,549-0.4%
120,348 -0.4%
CAGR 1990-20082.2%2.3%CAGR 1999-20082.0%2.2%August YTD 200831,654
120,749
August YTD 200930,930-2.3%
117,987
-2.3%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
City County
As noted in the table below, significant employment growth has occurred
in the servicessector between 2001 and 2008. Specifically, the
professional and business sector hasdriven this growth increasing at a
compound annual rate of 6.3 percent, while educationand health, leisure
and hospitality, and financial activities have increased at a
compoundannual rate of 3.3 percent, 3.8 percent, and 4.4 percent,
respectively. The governmentsector has also experienced significant
growth, increasing at a compound annual rate of 3percent over the same
period.
Area Analysis Hotel Market Demand Study
Frederick, MD
Pinnacle Advisory Group and OPX
14
Frederick County Employment Statistical Analysis
Employment by Sector
20012008Natural Resources, Mining, &
Construction9,17210,092Manufacturing7,4715,639Wholesale
Trade2,7712,536Retail Trade11,27212,209Transportation &
Utilities1,3141,754Government12,38615,296Services34,83946,612Information1,4421,4
43Financial
Activities5,5287,451Professional & Business 9,22614,162Education &
Health 8,96711,245Leisure & Hospitality7,0089,109Other
Services2,6683,202Total Employment79,22594,138
Compound Annual Growth
01- 08Natural Resources, Mining, &
Construction1.37%Manufacturing-3.94%Wholesale Trade-1.26%Retail
Trade1.15%Transportation &
Utilities4.21%Government3.06%Services4.25%Information0.01%Financial
Activities4.36%Professional & Business 6.31%Education & Health
3.29%Leisure & Hospitality3.82%Other Services2.64%Total Employment2.49%
Absolute/Total Change
Natural Resources, Mining, & Construction920Manufacturing-1,832Wholesale
Trade-235Retail Trade937Transportation &
Utilities440Government2,910Services11,773Information1Financial
Activities1,923Professional & Business 4,936Education & Health
2,278Leisure & Hospitality2,101Other Services534Total Employment14,913
Source: Bureau of Labor StatisticsNote: Total employment figures
provided by BLS does not equate to thetotal employment broken down by
sector. For the purposes of this analysis, we have relied on the total
employment figures, however present the data above to analyze the
breakdown of employment
Area Analysis Hotel Market Demand Study
Frederick, MD
Pinnacle Advisory Group and OPX
15
Unemployment
The following table details unemployment rates for the City of
Frederick, Frederick County,the State of Maryland, and the United States
as a whole.
Unemployment Rate
YearCity of FrederickFrederick CountyMarylandUnited
States19992.6%2.2.%3.6%4.2%20004.3%2.7%3.6%4.0%20015.1%3.2%4.1%4.7%20025.5%3.5%4
.5%5.8%20035.5%3.5%4.5%6.0%20045.3%3.3%4.3%5.5%20053.4%3.1%4.1%5.1%20063.4%3.1%3
.8%4.6%20073.1%2.9%3.5%4.6%20083.9%3.6%4.4%5.8%Aug-096.5%5.9%7.1%9.6%
Source: Bureau of Labor and StatisticsNote: Not Seasonally Adjusted
In recent years, both the City and County of Frederick have experienced
low unemploymentrates compared to both the State of Maryland and the
United States. While still well belowthe national statistics,
unemployment rates as of August of 2009 in the City and County
ofFrederick have increased significantly since year-end 2008. In the
City of Frederick,unemployment increased from 3.9 percent up to 6.5
percent, while in Frederick County,unemployment increased from 3.6
percent up to 5.9 percent.
Transportation
The transportation infrastructure is an integral component to the
success of any real estatedevelopment. The purpose of a well-organized
transportation network is to providebusinesses and customers with good
locations, easy access, and functionalism.
Highway Transportation
Frederick is located at the convergence of several major highways
including Interstate 70 (I-70), Interstate 270 (I-270), US Route 340, US
Route 40, and US Route 15. I-70 providesaccess in a northwest/southeast
direction through Maryland with a terminus to the east nearBaltimore,
and a terminus to the west in Utah. I-270 is an auxiliary Interstate
Highwaywithin the State of Maryland that travels in a
northwest/southeast direction with a terminusto the southeast at
Interstate 495 near Bethesda, Maryland and a terminus to the northwestat
Interstate 70 in Frederick. US Route 340 travels in a
southwest/northeast direction with a
western terminus near Harpers Ferry at the West
Virginia/Maryland/Virginia border and an
eastern terminus in Frederick. US Route 40 travels in an east/west
direction with a westernterminus near Park City, Utah and an eastern
terminus in Atlantic City, New Jersey. The
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