13 OCT 17 OCT 2014

W E E K L Y
R
E
P
O
R
T
Blow by Blow
On
Bullions,
Base metals,
Energy


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MAJOR EVENTS

Gold futures fell from a two-week high as signs of an improving U.S. economy boosted
the dollar, cutting the metals appeal as an alternative investment. A separate report
this week showed job openings in August at the highest in 13 years. Bullion still
posted a weekly advance amid growth concerns in China and Europe. Gold fell 8.4
percent last quarter as signs of a quickening U.S. recovery helped push the dollar to its
biggest gain in six years. The metal rallied the most in two months yesterday after
Federal Reserve policy makers said a global economic slowdown poses potential risks
to the U.S., sparking speculation that the central bank will keep interest rates lower
for a longer period. Gold futures for December delivery fell 0.3 percent to settle at
$1,221.70 an ounce at 1:51 p.m. on the Comex in New York. Prices reached $1,234
yesterday, the highest since Sept. 23, on the way to the first weekly gain since August.
The commodity slid to $1,183.30 on Oct. 6, the lowest since Dec. 31. Money managers
have cut their net-long position, or bets on higher prices, to the lowest this year, U.S.
government data show. Holdings in gold-backed exchange-traded products are at a
five-year low. Silver futures for December delivery lost 0.7 percent to $17.303 an
ounce on the Comex. The metal capped its first weekly gain in six weeks.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, platinum futures for delivery in January
declined 1.3 percent to $1,261.60 an ounce, snapping four straight gains. Palladium
futures for December delivery fell 1.9 percent to $785.05 an ounce, the first decline
this week.
West Texas Intermediate crude pared the biggest weekly drop since January amid
signs of a global glut. Brent, the benchmark for more than half the worlds oil, gained
after reaching a four-year low in intraday trading. WTI closed yesterday more than 20
percent below its June peak, a common definition of a bear market. Brent is down 22
percent from the June high. Both crudes settled higher for the first time in four days
after falling more than 2 percent during trading today.
The worlds two most-traded crude futures are collapsing because demand growth is
slowing at a time when output is expanding from countries including the U.S. and
Russia, the largest suppliers outside OPEC. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting
Countries increased oil production by the most in almost three years last month as
Libyan output surged. The fundamentals are weak but dont justify this. Its concern
about OPEC thats got the market rattled.WTI for November delivery rose 5 cents to
settle at $85.82 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures fell 4.4
percent this week after dropping 4.1 percent last week. The contract touched $83.59
today, the lowest intraday price since July 3, 2012.

WTI, Brent Post
Weekly Declines
as Global Supplies
Rise.

Copper Falls to
One-Week Low
as Economies
Signal Sagging
Demand.
Copper fell to a one-week low in London as economic signals in Europe and China
indicated metal demand will ebb. There are signs the euro areas recovery is losing
momentum, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said yesterday. In August,
exports from Germany slumped the most since 2009, data showed yesterday. Chinas
main government-backed research group forecast a 7 percent expansion next year,
down from a projected 7.3 percent growth in 2014. Ongoing concerns about the global
economic outlook are going to be a drag on the industrial metals like copper. Copper
for delivery in three months declined 0.9 percent to settle at $6,645 a metric ton
($3.01 a pound) on the London Metal Exchange. Earlier, the price touched $6,613, the
lowest since Oct. 2.
The metal capped its first weekly gain since Aug. 22 after Federal Reserve policy
makers said that U.S. growth might be slower than they expected if foreign economic
growth came in weaker than anticipated, stoking speculation that the central bank
wont raise interest rates anytime soon. China is the worlds largest consumer,
followed by the U.S. and Germany, which has largest economy in the euro area.
Aluminum, nickel, zinc and lead fell in London, while tin was unchanged.

Gold Declines
From Two-Week
High as Dollar
Advances.


E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R
DATE & TIME
DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS
Oct 13 All Day Bank Holiday
Oct 14 5:00pm
NFIB Small Business Index 97.2 96.1
Oct 15 6:00pm
Core Retail Sales m/m 0.2% 0.3%
6:00pm
PPI m/m 0.1% 0.0%
6:00pm
Retail Sales m/m -0.1% 0.6%
6:00pm
Core PPI m/m 0.1% 0.1%
6:00pm
Empire State Manufacturing Index 20.3 27.5
7:30pm
Business Inventories m/m 0.4% 0.4%
11:30pm
Beige Book
Oct 16 5:30pm
FOMC Member Plosser Speaks
6:00pm
Unemployment Claims 286K 287K
6:45pm
Capacity Utilization Rate 79.0% 78.8%
6:45pm
Industrial Production m/m 0.4% -0.1%
7:30pm
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 19.9 22.5
7:30pm
FOMC Member Kocherlakota Speaks
7:30pm
NAHB Housing Market Index 59 59
8:00pm
Natural Gas Storage
8:30pm
Crude Oil Inventories
Oct 17 1:30am
TIC Long-Term Purchases 23.3B -18.6B
6:00pm
Building Permits 1.04M 1.00M
6:00pm
Fed Chair Yellen Speaks
6:00pm
Housing Starts 1.02M 0.96M
7:25pm
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 84.3 84.6
7:25pm
Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations 3.0%











































S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
26470 26000 25485 27220 27650 28085
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
37940 37000 36000 39400 40500 41550
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX GOLD showed correction in whole
week but not able to maintains above
27100 and closed below the resistance
level of 23.6% retracement. Now, if it
able to sustain below 26500 then next
vital support is seen near psychological
level of 26000. Contrary if it maintains
above 27100 then breakout of
downward channel pattern is expected
and may find next resistance around
27500.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to buy
above 27250 for the targets of 27750
with stop loss of 26700.

PIVOT TABLE
G O L D
PIVOT TABLE
S I L V E R
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX SILVER on daily charts showed
sideways movement and traded below
to its important support level i.e.
38500. Now, if it sustain below 38000
then next support is seen in the range
of 37000-36000. On higher side 39500
is act as important resistance level for
it above which it may test the
psychological level of 40000.

S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this
point of time is to sell below 37900
targets of 36000, with stop loss of 39500.



C R U D E O I L
C O P P E R















































S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
5130 4960 4775 5355 5530 5715
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
410 404.20 399.65 417 422.30 428
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX Copper last week showed
sideways to bearish movement,
closed below 50% retracement level
i.e. 417 but not able to sustain below
61.8% retracement. Now, if it breaks
the support level of 408 then next
support level is seen around 400. On
higher side if it maintains above 417
then next resistance is seen in the
range of 422-425.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to
sell on highs for the targets of 5000, with
stop loss of 5550.

PIVOT TABLE
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX Crude oil last week showed free
fall after giving breakout of its
important support level i.e. 5525 and
found support around 5100. Now, if it
sustain in the range of 5200-5100 in
upcoming sessions then it may test the
next psychological support level of
5000. On other hand some correction
may take it towards the resistance
level of 5500.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to sell
below 411, with stop loss of 423 for the
targets of 405-400.
PIVOT TABLE














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