Weibull Statistics

There are several density functions which can be used to describe the wind speed frequency curve.
The two most common are the Weibull and the Rayleigh functions.
The Weibull is a two parameter distribution while the Rayleigh has only one parameter. This makes the Weibull somewhat more versatile
and the Rayleigh somewhat simpler to use.
Data collected at many locations around the world can be reasonably well described by the Weibull density function if the time period is
not too short. Periods of an hour or two or even a day or two may have wind data which are not well fitted by a Weibull or any other
statistical function, but for periods of several weeks to a year or more, the Weibull usually fits the observed data reasonably well.
The wind speed u is distributed as the Weibull distribution if its probability density function is

This is a two parameter distribution where c and k are the scale parameter and the shape parameter, respectively.
Curves of f(u) are given in Fig. 16, for the scale parameter c = 1. It can be seen that the Weibull density function gets relatively more
narrow and more peaked as k gets larger. The peak also moves in the direction of higher wind speeds as k increases.

The mean wind speed is given by

If we make the change of variable

Then the mean wind speed is given by

It can also be written in the form

Where is the gamma function, whose values are available in tables.
Normally, the wind data collected at a site will be used to directly calculate the mean speed u. We then want to find c and k
from the data. A good estimate for c can be obtained quickly from Eq. 35 by considering the function c/u as a function of k
which is given in Fig. 17. For values of k below unity, the ratio c/u decreases rapidly. For k above 1.5 and less than 3 or 4,
however, the ratio c/u is essentially a constant, with a value of about 1.12. This means that the scale parameter is directly
proportional to the mean wind speed for this range of k.


Most good wind regimes will have the shape parameter k in this range, so this estimate of c in terms of u will have wide
application.
It can be shown by substitution that the Weibull distribution function F(u) which meets the requirements of a distribution
function, i.e. F(0) = 0 and F() = 1, is

The variance of the Weibull density function can be shown to be

The probability of the wind speed u being equal to or greater than u
a
is


The probability of the wind speed being within a 1 m/s interval centered on the wind speed u
a
is