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different sampling methods? Briefly describe them.

estimate the characteristics of the population. Sampling is a tool

which enables us to draw conclusions about the characteristics of

the population.

elements from a target population in order to conduct a survey.

A survey may refer to many different types or techniques of

observation, but in the context of survey sampling it most often

refers to a questionnaire used to measure the characteristics

and/or attitudes of people. The purpose of sampling is to reduce

the cost and/or the amount of work that it would take to survey

the entire target population. A survey that measures the entire

target population is called a census.

study about a population with the help of a sample. Population is

the totality all objects about which the study is proposed. Sample

is only a portion of this population, which is selected using

certain statistical principles called sampling designs (this is for

guaranteeing that a representative sample is obtained for the

study). Once the sample decided information will be collected

from this sample, which process is called sample survey.

population. There are no strict rules to follow, and the researcher

must rely on logic and judgment. The population is defined in

keeping with the objectives of the study.

the researcher can include the entire population in the study.

This type of research is called a census study because data is

gathered on every member of the population.

to survey all of its members. A small, but carefully chosen

sample can be used to represent the population. The sample

reflects the characteristics of the population from which it is

drawn.

probability. In probability samples, each member of the

population has a known non-zero probability of being selected.

Probability methods include random sampling, systematic

sampling, and stratified sampling. In non-probability

sampling, members are selected from the population in some

non-random manner. These include convenience sampling,

judgment sampling, quota sampling, and snowball

sampling. The advantage of probability sampling is that

sampling error can be calculated. Sampling error is the degree to

which a sample might differ from the population. When inferring

to the population, results are reported plus or minus the

sampling error. In non-probability sampling, the degree to which

the sample differs from the population remains unknown.

sampling. Each member of the population has an equal and

known chance of being selected. When there are very large

populations, it is often difficult or impossible to identify every

member of the population, so the pool of available subjects

becomes biased.

2. Systematic sampling is often used instead of random

sampling. It is also called an Nth name selection technique.

After the required sample size has been calculated, every Nth

record is selected from a list of population members. As long

as the list does not contain any hidden order, this sampling

method is as good as the random sampling method. Its only

advantage over the random sampling technique is simplicity.

Systematic sampling is frequently used to select a specified

number of records from a computer file.

3. Stratified sampling is commonly used probability method

that is superior to random sampling because it reduces

sampling error. A stratum is a subset of the population that

share at least one common characteristic. Examples of

stratums might be males and females, or managers and non-

managers. The researcher first identifies the relevant

stratums and their actual representation in the population.

Random sampling is then used to select a sufficient number

of subjects from each stratum. "Sufficient" refers to a sample

size large enough for us to be reasonably confident that the

stratum represents the population.

stratums in the population have a low incidence relative to the

other stratums.

Non Probability Methods

where the researcher is interested in getting an inexpensive

approximation of the truth. As the name implies, the sample

is selected because they are convenient. This non-probability

method is often used during preliminary research efforts to

get a gross estimate of the results, without incurring the cost

or time required to select a random sample.

The researcher selects the sample based on judgment. This is

usually extension of convenience sampling. For example, a

researcher may decide to draw the entire sample from one

"representative" city, even though the population includes all

cities. When using this method, the researcher must be

confident that the chosen sample is truly representative of

the entire population.

stratified sampling. Like stratified sampling, the researcher

first identifies the stratums and their proportions as they are

represented in the population. Then convenience or

judgment sampling is used to select the required number of

subjects from each stratum. This differs from stratified

sampling, where the stratums are filled by random sampling.

used when the desired sample characteristic is rare. It may

be extremely difficult or cost prohibitive to locate

respondents in these situations. Snowball sampling relies on

referrals from initial subjects to generate additional subjects.

While this technique can dramatically lower search costs, it

comes at the expense of introducing bias because the

technique itself reduces the likelihood that the sample will

represent a good cross section from the population.

regression? What do you understand by Rank

Correlation? When we use rank correlation and when

we use Pearsonian Correlation Coefficient? Fit a linear

regression line in the following data –

X 12 15 18 20 27 34 28

48

Y 123 150 158 170 180 184 176

130

Correlation

they are said to be correlated. If both variables move in the same

direction then they are said to be positively correlated. If the

variables move in opposite direction then they are said to be

negatively correlated. If they move haphazardly then there is no

correlation between them.

Correlation analysis deals with

1) Measuring the relationship between variables.

2) Testing the relationship for its significance.

3) Giving confidence interval for population correlation measure.

Regression

Regression is defined as, “the measure of the average

relationship between two or more variables in terms of the

original units of the data.” Correlation analysis attempts to study

the relationship between the two variables x and y. Regression

analysis attempts to predict the average x for a given y. In

Regression it is attempted to quantify the dependence of one

variable on the other. The dependence is expressed in the form

of the equations.

these differences:

• Correlation quantifies the degree to which two variables are

related. Correlation does not find a best-fit line (that is

regression). You simply are computing a correlation

coefficient (r) that tells you how much one variable tends to

change when the other one does.

effect. You simply quantify how well two variables relate to

each other. With regression, you do have to think about cause

and effect as the regression line is determined as the best

way to predict Y from X.

• With correlation, it doesn't matter which of the two variables

you call "X" and which you call "Y". You'll get the same

correlation coefficient if you swap the two. With linear

regression, the decision of which variable you call "X" and

which you call "Y" matters a lot, as you'll get a different best-

fit line if you swap the two. The line that best predicts Y from

X is not the same as the line that predicts X from Y.

variables. It rarely is appropriate when one variable is

something you experimentally manipulate. With linear

regression, the X variable is often something you

experimental manipulate (time, concentration...) and the Y

variable is something you measure.

between paired variables, say X and Y. On the other hand, the

regression tells us the FORM of linear association that best

predicts Y from the values of X.

how much they are linearly associated.

- In particular the Pearson's product moment correlation

coefficient is used when the assumption of both X and Y are

sampled from normally-distributed populations are satisfied

- Or the Spearman's moment order correlation coefficient is

used if the assumption of normality is not satisfied.

- Correlation is not used when the variables are manipulated,

for example, in experiments.

the dependent variable Y. Note: Some of the Xi's are

dummy variables, i.e. Xi = 0 or 1, which are used to code

some nominal variables.

- If one manipulates the X variable, e.g. in an experiment.

is interchanging X and Y will give a different regression model

(i.e. X in terms of Y) against the original Y in terms of X.

On the other hand, if you interchange variables X and Y in the

calculation of correlation coefficient you will get the same

value of this correlation coefficient.

• The "best" linear regression model is obtained by selecting

the variables (X's) with at least strong correlation to Y, i.e.

>= 0.80 or <= -0.80

in linear regression. Thus, linear regression will underestimate

the correlation of the independent and dependent when they

(X's and Y) come from different underlying distributions.

rho, named after Charles Spearman and often denoted by the

Greek letter ρ (rho) or as rs, is a nonparametric measure of

correlation – that is, it assesses how well an arbitrary monotonic

function could describe the relationship between two variables,

without making any other assumptions about the particular

nature of the relationship between the variables. Certain other

measures of correlation are parametric in the sense of being

based on possible relationships of a parameterized form, such as

a linear relationship.

moment coefficient in which two sets of data Xi and Yi are

converted to rankings xi and yi before calculating the coefficient.

In practice, however, a simpler procedure is normally used to

calculate ρ. The raw scores are converted to ranks, and the

differences di, between the ranks of each observation on the two

variables are calculated.

Where:

di = xi − yi = the difference between the ranks of corresponding

values Xi and Yi, and

n = the number of values in each data set (same for both sets).

If tied ranks exist, classic Pearson's correlation coefficient

between ranks has to be used instead of this formula.

One has to assign the same rank to each of the equal values. It is

an average of their positions in the ascending order of the

values.

2. The value of “r” must be determined from sample values.

3. Samples must have been selected at random.

the different methods of business forecasting? Describe

the effectiveness of time-series analysis as a mode of

business forecasting. Describe the method of moving

averages.

economic conditions with the object of drawing inferences about

probable future business conditions. To forecast the future,

various data, information and facts concerning to economic

condition of business for past and present are analyzed. The

process of forecasting includes the use of statistical and

mathematical methods for long term, short term, medium term

or any specific term.

1. Business Barometers

business activities on the basis of which future conditions are

predetermined. As business indices are the indicators of future

conditions, so they are also known as “Business Barometers” or

“Economic Barometers‟. With the help of these business

barometers the trend of fluctuations in business conditions are

made known and by forecasting a decision can be taken relating

to the problem. The construction of business barometer consists

of gross national product, wholesale prices, consumer prices,

industrial production, stock prices, bank deposits etc. These

quantities may be converted into relatives on a certain base. The

relatives so obtained may be weighted and their average be

computed. The index thus arrived at in the business barometer.

known as general index of business activity which refers to

weighted or composite indices of individual index business

activities. With the help of general index of business activity

long term trend and cyclical fluctuations in the „economic

activities of a country are measured but in some specific

cases the long term trends can be different from general

trends. These types of index help in formation of country

economic policies.

ii. Business barometers for specific business or industry: These

barometers are used as the supplement of general index of

business activity and these are constructed to measure the

future variations in a specific business or industry.

iii. Business barometers concerning to individual business firm:

This type of barometer is constructed to measure the

expected variations in a specific individual firm of an

industry.

2. Time Series Analysis is also used for the purpose of making

business forecasting. The forecasting through time series

analysis is possible only when the business data of various

years are available which reflects a definite trend and seasonal

variation.

By extrapolation, a businessman finds out the possible trend of

demand of his goods and about their future price trends also. The

accuracy of extrapolation depends on two factors:

i) Knowledge about the fluctuations of the figures,

ii) Knowledge about the course of events relating to the problem

under consideration.

4. Regression Analysis

The regression approach offers many valuable contributions to

the solution of the forecasting problem. It is the means by which

we select from among the many possible relationships between

variables in a complex economy those which will be useful for

forecasting. Regression relationship may involve one predicted or

dependent and one independent variables simple regression, or

it may involve relationships between the variable to be forecast

and several independent variables under multiple regressions.

Statistical techniques to estimate the regression equations are

often fairly complex and time-consuming but there are many

computer programs now available that estimate simple and

multiple regressions quickly.

Econometric techniques, which originated in the eighteenth

century, have recently gained in popularity for forecasting. The

term econometrics refers to the application of mathematical

economic theory and statistical procedures to economic data in

order to verify economic theorems. Models take the form of a set

of simultaneous equations. The value of the constants in such

equations is supplied by a study of statistical time series.

forecasting as compared to other methods. Exponential

smoothing is a special kind of weighted average and is found

extremely useful in short-term forecasting of inventories and

sales.

7. Choice of a Method of Forecasting

The selection of an appropriate method depends on many factors

– the context of the forecast, the relevance and availability of

historical data, the degree of accuracy desired, the time period

for which forecasts are required, the cost benefit of the forecast

to the company, and the time available for making the analysis.

business forecasting. The forecasting through time series

analysis is possible only when the business data of various years

are available which reflects a definite trend and seasonal

variation. By time series analysis the long term trend, secular

trend, seasonal and cyclical variations are ascertained, analyzed

and separated from the data of various years.

Merits:

ii) By this method a comparative study of variations can be

made.

iii) Reliable results of forecasting are obtained as this method is

based on mathematical model.

is the moving averages method. This method is known for its

flexibility and user-friendliness. This method calculates the

average price of the currency or stock over a period of time.

follows a certain trend. The aim of this tool is to indicate to the

trader if there is a beginning of any new trend or if there is a

signal of end to the old trend. Traders use this method, as it is

relatively easy to understand the direction of the trends with the

help of moving averages.

helps to understand the chart patterns in an easier way. Since

the currency’s average price is considered, the price’s volatile

movements are evened. This method rules out the daily

fluctuation in the prices and helps the trader to go with the right

trend, thus ensuring that the trader trades in his own good.

We come across different types of moving averages, which are

based on the way these averages are computed. Still, the basis

of interpretation of averages is similar across all the types. The

computation of each type set itself different from other in terms

of weightage it lays on the prices of the currencies. Current price

trend is always given a higher weightage. The three basic types

of moving averages are viz. simple, linear and exponential.

moving price averages. The historical closing prices over certain

time period are added. This sum is divided by the number of

instances used in summation. For example, if the moving

average is calculated for 15 days, the past 15 historical closing

prices are summed up and then divided by 15. This method is

effective when the number of prices considered is more, thus

enabling the trader to understand the trend and its future

direction more effectively.

A linear moving average is the less used one out of all. But it

solves the problem of equal weightage. The difference between

simple average and linear average method is the weightage that

is provided to the position of the prices in the latter. Let’s

consider the above example. In linear average method, the

closing price on the

15th day is multiplied by 15, the 14th day closing price by 14 and

so on till the 1st day closing price by 1. These results are totalled

and then divided by 15.

with the linear moving average method. This method lays

emphasis on the smoothing factor, there by weighing recent data

with higher points than the previous data. This method is more

receptive to any market news than the simple average method.

Hence this makes exponential method more popular among

traders.

their respective levels of resistance.

characteristics of statistics? What are the different

functions of Statistics? What are the limitations of

Statistics?

According to Croxton and Cowden, ‘Statistics is the science of

collection, presentation, analysis and interpretation of numerical

data.’ Thus, Statistics contains the tools and techniques required

for the collection, presentation, analysis and interpretation of

data. This definition is precise and comprehensive.

Characteristic of Statistics

be analyzed.

b. Statistics are affected to a marked extent by multiplicity of

causes: The statistics of yield of paddy is the result of factors

such as fertility of soil, amount of rainfall, quality of seed used,

quality and quantity of fertilizer used, etc.

c. Statistics are numerically expressed: Only numerical facts can

be statistically analyzed. Therefore, facts as ‘price decreases with

increasing production’ cannot be called statistics.

d. Statistics are enumerated or estimated according to

reasonable standards of accuracy: The facts should be

enumerated (collected from the field) or estimated (computed)

with required degree of accuracy. The degree of accuracy differs

from purpose to purpose. In measuring the length of screws, an

accuracy upto a millimetre may be required, whereas, while

measuring the heights of students in a class, accuracy upto a

centimetre is enough.

e. Statistics are collected in a systematic manner: The facts

should be collected according to planned and scientific methods.

Otherwise, they are likely to be wrong and misleading.

f. Statistics are collected for a pre-determined purpose: There

must be a definite purpose for collecting facts.

Eg. Movement of wholesale price of a commodity

g. Statistics are placed in relation to each other: The facts must

be placed in such a way that a comparative and analytical study

becomes possible.

Thus, only related facts which are arranged in logical order can

be called statistics.

Functions of Statistics

2. It makes comparison easier

3. It brings out trends and tendencies in the data

4. It brings out hidden relations between variables.

5. Decision making process becomes easier.

1. Statistics does not deal with qualitative data. It deals only with

quantitative data.

2. Statistics does not deal with individual fact: Statistical

methods can be applied only to aggregate to facts.

3. Statistical inferences (conclusions) are not exact: Statistical

inferences are true only on an average. They are probabilistic

statements.

4. Statistics can be misused and misinterpreted: Increasing

misuse of Statistics has led to increasing distrust in statistics.

5. Common men cannot handle Statistics properly: Only

statisticians can handle statistics properly.

survey? Describe the various methods for collecting data

in a statistical survey.

activities.

defined in an un- ambiguous manner.

2. Objectives of investigation should be stated at the outset.

Objectives could be to obtain certain estimates or to establish

a theory or to verify a existing statement to find relationship

between characteristics etc.

3. The scope of investigation has to be made clear. It refers to

area to be covered, identification of units to be studied,

nature of characteristics to be observed, accuracy of

measurements, analytical methods, time, cost and other

resources required.

4. Whether to use data collected from primary or secondary

source should be determined in advance.

5. The organization of investigation is the final step in the

process. It encompasses the determination of number of

investigators required, their training, supervision work

needed, funds required etc.

following methods.

ii. Indirect oral interview

iii. Information through agencies

iv. Information through mailed questionnaires

iv. Information through schedule filled by investigators

requisites of a good classification? What is Table and

describe the usefulness of a table in mode of

presentation of data?

b. It simplifies the data and makes the data more

comprehensible

c. It facilitates comparison of characteristics

d. It renders the data ready for any statistical analysis

ii. Exhaustive: every unit should be allotted to one and only

one class

iii. Mutually exclusive: There should not be any overlapping.

iv. Flexibility: It should be capable of being adjusted to

changing situation.

v. Suitability: It should be suitable to objectives of survey.

vi. Stability: It should remain stable throughout the

investigation

vii. Homogeneity: Similar units are placed in the same class.

viii. Revealing: Should bring out essential features of the

collected data.

columns.

Objectives of tabulation are:-

ii. To highlight important characteristics

iii. To present data in minimum space

iv. To facilitate comparison

v. To bring out trends and tendencies

vi. To facilitate further analysis

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